@CorrectHorseBattery despite his ban and having called Corbyn wrong, got SKS right from the beginning. Wherever he is, I hope he knows that PB is behind him.
I heard he had become a pineapple salesman in Venezuela.
Andy Burnham has now become a Starmerite, what a shame his leadership ambitions have gone. Not that he'd have been any good, he's had so many positions he is dizzy.
had to give up on the BBC and switch to ITV - whatever happened to detailed number analysis that the anchors could understand - ended with Dimbleby and Maitless i think
NEW: senior Lib Dem source tells me they think LDs will take Harpenden (for the 1st time in 100 years) and Esher (Dominic Raab's former seat)
Again, if they are calling Harpenden early, that's positive for LDs as the exit poll said nail-biter - 53% probability LD, 47% probability Tory. Esher is no surprise.
Dawn Butler tried to argue that the Tories only got 37% of the vote in 2019. I'm not sure what the talking point was supposed to be but she obviously mangled it.
If true, that is very positive - it was in the exit poll as an almost complete toss up - 53% likelihood Tory, 47% Lib Dem. So it was essentially 0.5 of a seat in the LD projected 61.
Dawn Butler tried to argue that the Tories only got 37% of the vote in 2019. I'm not sure what the talking point was supposed to be but she obviously mangled it.
The auto-updating is working ! Annoyingly there is a (elected) by the winner which means it won't parse as a number. I'll just manually adjust rather than trying anything fancy now.
I'm struggling to understand the sheet, what do these numbers mean?
Dawn Butler tried to argue that the Tories only got 37% of the vote in 2019. I'm not sure what the talking point was supposed to be but she obviously mangled it.
Think she meant 2010
Perhaps Labour need to go into coalition with the Lib Dems to have legitimacy.
I cocked up the Newcastle Central result, expecting Lab to get 29,000 and they got 18,800.
That was the only one so far that didn't match up...I am religiously following your predictions when the vote comes in...but Labour actual share down 14% too. I didn't realise there were so many Corbynites there...
Those are usually pretty low turnout seats - though still down a bit.
I think we’re seeing a new geographical pattern, as suggested earlier: parts of the East and NE become Labour-Reform battlegrounds, Stockbroker belt and Wessex a Lib-Con area, and the rest of England Lab-Con.
Bad news for the Conservatives in the next election I think, unless they merge with the Putinists.
A Labour landslide but also feels like they are also being put on notice by Reform... If they screw up in the the next five years?
We're getting a skewed view because these particular seats are declaring first. If the first results had been from Berkshire, Oxfordshire, Surrey, we'd be saying very different things.
Why is Reform putting Labour on notice anymore than the Tories?
The challenge for Reform changes now - they’ve been attacking the Tory Gvt and wanting mostly Tory voters. Now they’re in a competition with the Tories as to who can oppose a Labour Gvt more effectively. And they will probably have just a handful of MPs.
They do get questions at PMQs though. Or rather, Farage does. And remember he now gets a response to every statement. He was capable of getting his speeches viral when in the EU Parliament and may be able to here as well.
@christopherhope LATEST LibDems are declaring victory in these formerly Conservative seats: 1. Torbay 2. North Cornwall 3. Yeovil 4. Eastleigh 5. Wimbledon 6. Woking 7. Guildford 8. South Cambridgeshire 9. Cheadle 10. Hazel Grove 11. Wokingham 12. Lewes
I’m still not seeing 61
I'm seeing it if they are claiming these NOW. It's rare to brief that you've gotr it unless you're pretty confident on the boxes opened so far. Some of those are no surprise at all - but to call Torbay, Wokingham and to an extent Woking (although local circumstances) pretty early is very positive. And comments elsewhere suggest they are pretty bullish on Berkhampstead and Tunbridge Wells - again fairly stretching targets.
There will be ones they won't get on the flipside that they hoped for. But these are seats that the exit poll said were finely balanced.
A Labour landslide but also feels like they are also being put on notice by Reform... If they screw up in the the next five years?
We're getting a skewed view because these particular seats are declaring first. If the first results had been from Berkshire, Oxfordshire, Surrey, we'd be saying very different things.
Why is Reform putting Labour on notice anymore than the Tories?
The challenge for Reform changes now - they’ve been attacking the Tory Gvt and wanting mostly Tory voters. Now they’re in a competition with the Tories as to who can oppose a Labour Gvt more effectively. And they will probably have just a handful of MPs.
They do get questions at PMQs though. Or rather, Farage does. And remember he now gets a response to every statement. He was capable of getting his speeches viral when in the EU Parliament and may be able to here as well.
If he's the fifth party behind Lab, Con, LD and SNP, he won't get much visibility in the Commons.
A Labour landslide but also feels like they are also being put on notice by Reform... If they screw up in the the next five years?
We're getting a skewed view because these particular seats are declaring first. If the first results had been from Berkshire, Oxfordshire, Surrey, we'd be saying very different things.
Why is Reform putting Labour on notice anymore than the Tories?
The challenge for Reform changes now - they’ve been attacking the Tory Gvt and wanting mostly Tory voters. Now they’re in a competition with the Tories as to who can oppose a Labour Gvt more effectively. And they will probably have just a handful of MPs.
They do get questions at PMQs though. Or rather, Farage does. And remember he now gets a response to every statement. He was capable of getting his speeches viral when in the EU Parliament and may be able to here as well.
likely to be 4th or 5th party so not many PMQs, and he has to be arsed to get out of the bar first.
A Labour landslide but also feels like they are also being put on notice by Reform... If they screw up in the the next five years?
We're getting a skewed view because these particular seats are declaring first. If the first results had been from Berkshire, Oxfordshire, Surrey, we'd be saying very different things.
Why is Reform putting Labour on notice anymore than the Tories?
The challenge for Reform changes now - they’ve been attacking the Tory Gvt and wanting mostly Tory voters. Now they’re in a competition with the Tories as to who can oppose a Labour Gvt more effectively. And they will probably have just a handful of MPs.
They do get questions at PMQs though. Or rather, Farage does. And remember he now gets a response to every statement. He was capable of getting his speeches viral when in the EU Parliament and may be able to here as well.
Other parties will need to do better, then. But also there’s more to politics than just telling people what they want to hear so you win. You have to actually do admin and stuff. That’s what’s got the Cons in the mess they are currently in.
A Labour landslide but also feels like they are also being put on notice by Reform... If they screw up in the the next five years?
We're getting a skewed view because these particular seats are declaring first. If the first results had been from Berkshire, Oxfordshire, Surrey, we'd be saying very different things.
Why is Reform putting Labour on notice anymore than the Tories?
The challenge for Reform changes now - they’ve been attacking the Tory Gvt and wanting mostly Tory voters. Now they’re in a competition with the Tories as to who can oppose a Labour Gvt more effectively. And they will probably have just a handful of MPs.
They do get questions at PMQs though. Or rather, Farage does. And remember he now gets a response to every statement. He was capable of getting his speeches viral when in the EU Parliament and may be able to here as well.
Slightly different format in the Commons. Ask Ed Davey - empty benches and people chatting among themselves for effect. It's all deliberately done to belittle - and it works to an extent.
1. Conservatives in Brecon 2. Conservatives 150-199 3. LD sell 62 (likely to be flat)
I think I'll be about 50/50 in terms of number won, but very much up when all netted out as vast majority wayyyy over evens. But we shall see...
(Something wayyyyy over evens still available is rishi exit date which is not rishi exit date - it's actually on next tory permanent leader becoming so. I probably wouldn't back the 26 that's available atm but you will likely get 40 if you try to)
Getting whispers of total Tory carnage in Kent. North Kent corridor going Labour. But most Tory seats on the edge. Of the 18 seats in Kent, Tories may well lose more than 12. LibDems say they've won Tunbridge Wells, which echoes what I am hearing.
1. Conservatives in Brecon 2. Conservatives 150-199 3. LD sell 62 (likely to be flat)
You reckon the Conservatives above 150 seats? There was me thinking my money was done earlier.
Twitter discussion so far appears to be that Labour will so slightly better and the Tories slightly worse than the exit poll, so I wouldn’t be super confident in that 150+ Tory seat bet just yet?
Getting whispers of total Tory carnage in Kent. North Kent corridor going Labour. But most Tory seats on the edge. Of the 18 seats in Kent, Tories may well lose more than 12. LibDems say they've won Tunbridge Wells, which echoes what I am hearing.
Unders on the exit poll is feeling good. 50-99 at 17s is feeling like superb value, and possibly the best value loser of the night for me. Now down to 5s.
Tories might have improved. Early July is an odd time, feels like 650 by-elections.
I don't think the economic landscape will have improved significantly by then, in fact it could be worse. Sunak was absolutely awful campaigner (we knew that already to some extent, but he was gaffe mcgaffe face) that wouldn't have changed. Maybe D-Day and betting gate might not have happened (well D-Day would, but probably faded by then).
1. Conservatives in Brecon 2. Conservatives 150-199 3. LD sell 62 (likely to be flat)
You reckon the Conservatives above 150 seats? There was me thinking my money was done earlier.
Twitter discussion so far appears to be that Labour will so slightly better and the Tories slightly worse than the exit poll, so I wouldn’t be super confident in that 150+ Tory seat bet just yet?
I think you've misunderstood. Robert was saying that's one of three bets he reckons he's LOST.
Peston aside, ITV has the best coverage for me, 3 big beast politicians and 2 analysts
I wish they still regarded the election programmes as primarily a results service, but they probably think people should just look them up themselves these days.
Comments
LATEST LibDems are declaring victory in these formerly Conservative seats:
1. Torbay
2. North Cornwall
3. Yeovil
4. Eastleigh
5. Wimbledon
6. Woking
7. Guildford
8. South Cambridgeshire
9. Cheadle
10. Hazel Grove
11. Wokingham
12. Lewes
Eg the 31.9 under More in Common by Blyth etc
Arrrrgh!
I do think Reform would have done better in Doncaster North but judging by results they'll be second in Doncaster Central.
Nigel Farage.
Labour source in Islington suggests Jeremy Corbyn could be on course for a narrow victory – likely to be as few as 1500 votes in it
I think we’re seeing a new geographical pattern, as suggested earlier: parts of the East and NE become Labour-Reform battlegrounds, Stockbroker belt and Wessex a Lib-Con area, and the rest of England Lab-Con.
Bad news for the Conservatives in the next election I think, unless they merge with the Putinists.
this is just a bad result for the Conservatives, it’s the worst result for the Conservatives in two centuries
1. Conservatives in Brecon
2. Conservatives 150-199
3. LD sell 62 (likely to be flat)
There will be ones they won't get on the flipside that they hoped for. But these are seats that the exit poll said were finely balanced.
SNP source says the party is "monumentally fucked" in Lanarkshire
Lab 18,245
Ref 8,601
LD 4,987
Con 4,628
Grn 3,217
TUSC 369
Save Us Now 170
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001244
2019 notional result:
Lab 19,787
Con 13,876
LD 5,138
Brexit 1,629
Grn 1,591
https://electionresults.parliament.uk/elections/2207
"Through no fault of their own."
Oh puh'lease.
(Something wayyyyy over evens still available is rishi exit date which is not rishi exit date - it's actually on next tory permanent leader becoming so. I probably wouldn't back the 26 that's available atm but you will likely get 40 if you try to)
So @Keir_Starmer selected in Holborn & St Pancras. Surely a future Labour leader and PM. You read it here first.
Getting whispers of total Tory carnage in Kent. North Kent corridor going Labour. But most Tory seats on the edge. Of the 18 seats in Kent, Tories may well lose more than 12. LibDems say they've won Tunbridge Wells, which echoes what I am hearing.