Irrespective of whether we each think it’s a good idea (I don’t) it also just isn’t possible. It’s a long old road to get there. Some vague associate membership on that road? Maybe. But tricky without consensus in the UK.
Labour needs to deliver for the north. The Tories blagged it up but did little, Labour needs to deliver visibly.
Deliver full stop. Anywhere. I hate how shitty, downtrodden, dirty and scruffy our urban areas have become. Rubbish shops, fast food, gambling, unhealthy people, and impoverished. And depressing.
He talks like someone who is not an insider any more - like he gets it from the newspapers. I rather assumed he was an insider of sorts still. Maybe he's just enjoying retirement.
IOW E - Reform thinks it’s close between her, the Tories and the Green. Labour’s candidate not at the count. Result expected 0300
That was one of my most outlandish predictions, a Green gain in IoW East.
I’m sceptical having taken a few soundings today. The Reform person has never fought an election before and spoke to the local media after wandering about the count for a bit. So possibly not the most reliable data
BF thinks Islington North is all over - Corbyn has won
I said I wouldn't lay corbyn more, but backing labour >6 was too good for me. And if it doesn't work I'll just complain to the gambling commission in hope they were insiders
He talks like someone who is not an insider any more - like he gets it from the newspapers. I rather assumed he was an insider of sorts still. Maybe he's just enjoying retirement.
Sounds like an act. It was well reported that he was giving Starmer advice.
I’d forgotten the most boring time in the election is 1-2pm. 10-12 is fine, lots of good discussion and the early Sunderland counts. But then it goes a bit flat. Should have had a nap.
IOW E - Reform thinks it’s close between her, the Tories and the Green. Labour’s candidate not at the count. Result expected 0300
Eh? Survation MRP had that as a 90% Labour chance. All the models forecast it as a Labour win.
Like I explained at length this morning. MRP is a national model, not a local poll, and there is a stack of issues in the seat, especially with the Labour candidate.
Nevertheless nothing I’ve heard yet sounds that authoritative.
IOW E - Reform thinks it’s close between her, the Tories and the Green. Labour’s candidate not at the count. Result expected 0300
Eh? Survation MRP had that as a 90% Labour chance. All the models forecast it as a Labour win.
Like I explained at length this morning. MRP is a model, not a poll, and there is a stack of issues in the seat, especially with the Labour candidate.
Nevertheless nothing I’ve heard yet sounds that authoritative.
just rumours at present, but pretty much all my Island family were unimpressed by the Lab candidate, and apart from my Tory uncle in Lake leaning Green.
Some rumours that Sinn Fein are in danger of hashing Fermanagh South Tyrone. It is one of the UKs most marginal seats but boundary changes should have solidified Sinn Feins position. SF parachuted in former leader of the Royal College of Nursing Pat Cullen and would have expected to carry this seat. Have to say it would be a surprise.
UUP even more confident of taking the South Antrim seat from the DUP.
Getting whispers of total Tory carnage in Kent. North Kent corridor going Labour. But most Tory seats on the edge. Of the 18 seats in Kent, Tories may well lose more than 12. LibDems say they've won Tunbridge Wells, which echoes what I am hearing.
Was it not just 9 years ago, in 2015, that Labour had no Kent MPs?
We seem to be hearing about some bad Con defeats - eg Tunbridge Wells, Hitchin, Basildon, Chichester.
Are they going to get 131 seats?
I think we aren’t. I am surprised that PBers were just celebrating their bets on the 150-200 band. I think the early indications for them are down on the exit poll.
I wasn't quite sure what they were trying to say there via Nick Watt, whether they meant they're very confident of 47 seats, with additional ones being possible but not so likely.
With still very few constituencies having as yet declared, compared with the exit poll, the betting markets have Labour ur 6 seats from 410 to 416, with the Tories down by 7 seats from 131 to 124 . At this rate, are the Tories going to fall to below 120 seats that appears quite possible.
I wasn't quite sure what they were trying to say there via Nick Watt, whether they meant they're very confident of 47 seats, with others being possible but not so likely.
@IanB2 (and others) something I've often been curious about - am I right in thinking that votes are "mixed up" before counting? So there shouldn't be an effect like a misleading tally from counting e.g. postal votes, or AM votes, or votes from certain bits of the constituency first or whatever?
Some rumours that Sinn Fein are in danger of hashing Fermanagh South Tyrone. It is one of the UKs most marginal seats but boundary changes should have solidified Sinn Feins position. SF parachuted in former leader of the Royal College of Nursing Pat Cullen and would have expected to carry this seat. Have to say it would be a surprise.
UUP even more confident of taking the South Antrim seat from the DUP.
Fermanagh is dodgy though for SF as the DUP not standing to split the unionist vote - should be a fairly easy UUP win
I wasn't quite sure what they were trying to say there via Nick Watt, whether they meant they're very confident of 47 seats, with others being possible but not so likely.
47 gains or 47 in total?
I don't think that's the claim. It's a claim of 47 "in the bag" so far. Or at least that's my interpretation
Times Radio reports Gillian Keegan has pulled out of her appearance and speculate this is due to her likely losing Chichester.
That would be a decent win for the LDs. They do have a strong local candidate there.
It would be more than decent. We must look against the exit poll now and whether people will over- or under- perform at the margins. That gave them a 15% chance in Chichester.
Bear in mind, of course, that they will be remaining tight-lipped on any that the exit polls give them that they aren't optimistic about. It gives the Mid Sussex for instance - maybe they have that but I was a bit surprised.
@IanB2 (and others) something I've often been curious about - am I right in thinking that votes are "mixed up" before counting? So there shouldn't be an effect like a misleading tally from counting e.g. postal votes, or AM votes, or votes from certain bits of the constituency first or whatever?
Yes and no; they’re counted anonymously and the PVs are mixed in, but any given counting table is counting votes from one or two particular boxes - they don’t faff about mixing everything randomly. You have to be eagle eyed at a count to see where a particular box you’re interested in ends up, but it can be done,
If the agents are good, they know the result at verification stage.
I wasn't quite sure what they were trying to say there via Nick Watt, whether they meant they're very confident of 47 seats, with others being possible but not so likely.
47 gains or 47 in total?
Sounded like 47 seats in total, but whether that meant confident of winning 47 seats with others possible, I'm not sure.
Comments
Labour expecting to be the largest party in England, Scotland and Wales - first party to do that in 23 years.
I can still never forget that he thought that the mushy peas on his chips was guacamole.
https://x.com/scottygb/status/1809018326762373237/photo/1
Lab +0.8%
Ref +14.8%
Con -20.3%
LD -0.5%
Grn +3.5%
Ind +2.0%
Swing from Con to Lab 10.6%
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/results
Lab 22,274
Ref 9,454
Con 8,592
Grn 2,144
LD 1,898
Ind 573
Tory MP comes third, although the boundaries have changed.
‘The first instinct of the Conservative Party will be: you didn’t like what we were offering, we’ll double it’
-George Osborne
Labour HOLD Cramlington in Northumberland.
ANOTHER third place for the Tory Party, second is Reform.
Swindon South the ONLY second place Tory finish so far:
Nevertheless nothing I’ve heard yet sounds that authoritative.
So this is the election Survation missed it, they got a Labour landslide but significantly overestimated Labour and underestimated the Tories.
Though they got the LDs, Reform and SNP close
https://www.survation.com/final-survation-mrp-projection-of-the-2024-general-election/
https://x.com/mixedknuts/status/1808971891102921147
Are they going to get 131 seats?
Some rumours that Sinn Fein are in danger of hashing Fermanagh South Tyrone. It is one of the UKs most marginal seats but boundary changes should have solidified Sinn Feins position. SF parachuted in former leader of the Royal College of Nursing Pat Cullen and would have expected to carry this seat. Have to say it would be a surprise.
UUP even more confident of taking the South Antrim seat from the DUP.
At this rate, are the Tories going to fall to below 120 seats that appears quite possible.
Survation MRP continues to be bang on.
Bear in mind, of course, that they will be remaining tight-lipped on any that the exit polls give them that they aren't optimistic about. It gives the Mid Sussex for instance - maybe they have that but I was a bit surprised.
Come on...
If the agents are good, they know the result at verification stage.
Glad I cashed out of my 66/1
Having a great night. Brilliant vibe at the LD tables.