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Chronicle of a bet foretold: Thin gruel – politicalbetting.com
Chronicle of a bet foretold: Thin gruel – politicalbetting.com
INTRODUCTION
1
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Chronicle of a bet foretold: Thin gruel – politicalbetting.com
INTRODUCTION
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On the subject of student loans adding 9% to tax, I looked up my first year of paying PAYE in 1988. 25% basic rate and personal allowance of £2605, so probably paying a higher percentage of income tax than a fresh graduate now with a student loan.
F1: backed McLaren at 4.1 (Ladbrokes boosted) to win the Constructors. There are 13 races to go and they're 87 points behind. Verstappen and Norris seem neck and neck. Piastri and Perez are very much not neck and neck. If McLaren can average 7 more points per race they take the title.
Still a slightly outside bet, but more like 2.5 to maybe 3, I think.
I mentioned the other day on here that my bank rang me up two or three years ago to ask if I had a gambling addiction. I’d placed a few bets on something and it’s not like I bet particularly frequently - every other month kind of thing.
I did take delight in pointing out that I had won the bets, as I usually do, but it still peed me off.
That’s my f-ing money not the bank’s.
Often enough for me to have it in the back of my mind when posting.
You just can't get the staff these days.
The Red Bull also appears to have a less resilient engine, so that might gift McLaren the odd win for a big points gain.
OTOH, Mercedes might now enter the mix.
Gutted to learn Mercedes are trying to sign the Dutch shunt.
I basically work every waking hour - 365 days a year. Some of us don’t get holidays
My problem is people don’t see the work so they think I’ve got it easy. Eg when I’m sipping my Kir Breton in sunny Camaret sur Mer, courtesy of the French taxpayer, and staring vaguely and happily at the dolphins in the bay - I’m working. In my head. I’m thinking about that next flint - or the next Gazette piece, or where I can have oysters
It never stops - it’s relentless. And it’s people like me that keep the world turning when everyone else has got their feet up, watching Season 3 of Traitors
I like to call us “the silent heroes”
Practice safe X, don't wake up with a dumb blond on Friday morning.
Complete with comedy video showing how awful that would be.
Have we *ever* seen an election campaign this abject from a party going into an election with a majority as big as theirs? Or from any government?
Please don’t kill us. Pleeeeease. It will really hurt. Is. Not you. Please, no. Don’t.
Is that it? PB Tories please explain why the party deserves to be left alive.
Despite what the Constitution says.
Now you can sit at home or wherever and track the bus on a map in comfort, going to the stop when it is a few minutes away.
The days of waiting ages in the wind and rain for buses that don't turn up are OVER. But sadly too few people know about this.
If you have not got this website saved on your phone, do it and get it.
https://bustimes.org/
Housing is by far the biggest cost in people's bills and young people don't own houses, so lets use that as an index.
1988 the average UK house price was £35,946
2024 the average UK house price is £282,000
If personal allowance had scaled with our index then personal allowance today would be £20,436 - it is not.
Sadly my 29 earlier in the season on Norris seems doomed to fail. Unless we have a crazy time from here on out.
Why not use a debit card?
One things we do not do is discuss the death of cash.
Speaking professionally, withdrawing more than £100 plus flags up on most bank systems as a risk if it happens enough times.
I could see several of us only really being able to bet on Betfair.
If you do it on a regular basis then your bank will conclude you are a smack head or paying someone cash in hand.
I don't want companies, banks or government agencies drawing conclusions about me.
I’m heading out to southern France in a few days to do some wine tasting in Provence for the gazette. And as I work my way through the roses and the Bandols - day after day - in the gilded sunshine and the rustling vineyards, thanklessly getting on with my job so everyone else can have their “day off” - well, put it like this: knowing that someone actually appreciates it will make all the difference.
I’m a bit like a Tommy in the trenches getting that one letter from home every week, reading and rereading it, knowing that someone remembers me. And reminding me why I’m fighting
You guys are why I do this
This stopped when we had a kid, and life didn't fit that routine. And the convenience of contactless helped the change.
Here's the thing though; a while back I spent half a day looking into this, and comparing what we spent in 2012 with what we spend now. And even accounting for an extra mouth to feed and inflation, we spend much more. Contactless is, in a way, too easy to use if you have money in your account.
There's nothing like having cash in your pocket to help you budget...
It should be a condition of having a gambling licence that all bets are available to every punter equitably. If that means the bookies need to be less aggressive with their marketing because any bad offers can't be restricted only to "mugs" then that should just be part and parcel of having a licence.
Yes that's not a completely liberal let every firm do what they want attitude, but unless you're abolishing licencing altogether then we don't have that anyway.
I almost always buy things in shops in cash if I can.
There is also the issue of them sending you a letter saying that your account will be closed in 3 months, without explanation, if they get suspicious.
But I was talking income tax rather than expenses, and am sure that I was paying more PAYE as a percentage of income than a twentysomething with a student loan is now.
Discussing cash as well is just too much.
It can be offset if the bank sees money coming in regularly from the bookies.
Pro tip.
Have a separate bank account solely for gambling.
Make sure it isn’t part of the same banking group as your main account such as Lloyds and Bank of Scotland etc.
Your main bank account where you apply for credit will never know about it.
The UK basic rate was 29% in 1985.
If they start taking more wins, that doesn't help McLaren.
“NEW: President Biden reads “end of quote” while rocking his fresh new Trump-inspired orange spray tan.
“Justice Sotomayor's dissent today. She hears what she said. She said, in every use of official power, the president is now a king above the law with fear for our democracy. I dissent.”
“End of quote.”
Sharp as a tack.”
https://x.com/collinrugg/status/1807937556207788311?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
All part of my anarchistic streak I guess.
You get the section 75 protection if anything goes wrong over £100 and you get a decent cash reward/points to use at the end of the year.
If Mercedes do become dominant then that would make things rough for McLaren. However, it's worth remembering Piastri should've been way higher up the grid (tiny track limit violation) and Norris was a long way ahead of Russell. And Hamilton was even further back.
I did indeed install it but with the proviso of the simple double-click side button, which you can disable. It has been absolutely fantastic. I LOVE it. No more fiddling around with cards jammed inside my purse etc. and no need to take out my phone either.
So easy-peasy. Particularly enjoyable on London underground tap in and out.
Are you on foot? Would be good to know how that works?
Similar thing with meetings. If you look at the entire footage of say a G7 drinks, it's always possible to find your target looking lost and friendless because people are always at some stage in transit between conversations
Whenever the train is out I would have to take the Exeter to Teignmouth bus through Dawlish. The number of fights I’ve seen break out on board had to be seen to be believed. Even my socialism has its limits.
Considering personal allowance has nowhere near kept up with expenses, and rates are higher too on top of that, the only way you're saying that twentysomething's overall rate charged could be less is if you're saying that wages have gone up by considerably less than inflation.
So on a higher marginal tax rate, with proportionately lower tax free allowance, on a lower salary.
Why should you have an informational advantage?
It is quite pricey, apparently. And of course it takes ages to cross. But yes, chilled out
I'm just trying to gauge the Tories aim in these final 48 hours. Would a Blair 97 landslide of 179 - not a supermajority - be considered a great result?
Supermajority is 200+
I haven't posted much recently, partly because I have been doing other things, but also as I do not bet the vagaries of opinion polls which as far as I can tell are hardly changing are not of much interest as the result is not in doubt with Starmer winning a substantial majority
On the subject of other things, my wife and I took the Snowdon Mountain Railway to the summit for the first time in 50 years and within 500 feet of the summit, the weather changed distinctly for the worse with heavy rain, drizzle, terrible visibility, and near freezing temperatures
On the one hour journey up to the summit the footpaths were very busy and many were properly dressed, but the number that were in tee shirts, shorts and trainers was astonishing and irresponsible for walking/hiking in the mountains
However, the main point of my post was that we sat with 2 US teachers on vacation here in Wales and the conversation inevitably turned to the US election
They are both Democrats but in absolute despair and not happy that Jill Biden has not taken Joe aside and out of the contest
They are aware of the imminent election of a centre left Labour Party under Starmer here, but were like most of us very concerned about the move to the right in Europe and the thought of Trump saw them literally bury their heads in their hands
These are dangerous times for most electorates and we parted in Llanberis commenting that nobody seems to have a clue what to do to resolve the issues, but agreed that despite the summit weather we really enjoyed our time together and we wished then well as they left to visit Caernarvon castle
https://www.gamblingcommission.gov.uk/news/article/gambling-on-credit-cards-to-be-banned-from-april-2020
For all they knew someone could have cloned your card and set up an account t in your name
In either sce ario they would have been financially liable if they hadn’t called you to ask the question
Also he’s still mumbling and now he’s gone orange like Trump??
Imagine an American from the 50s or 80s seeing this presidential election
I have had one morning off since November 2019. I wish things would calm down a little!
Lacking an actual defined number which is needed to do something like overcoming a veto it is going to be a matter of judgement. I'd probably say any majority over 150.
Edit: Hadf a look. At least one major company completely missing. And Lothian Buses themselves provide such a service so no great improvement. Nice thought though. It shouldn't be left to some amiable amateur.
Last year, and all over the last decade. I’m travelling back through this autumn. Cash is still very powerful in parts of Asia and Africa.
A landslide I would say is c. 120+ majority. Some would set the bar a bit lower.
I suspect that this Tory / Daily Mail Supermajority message is cutting through and I’m not too unhappy about it. If it helps defeat @Leon ’s warped worldview then it’s a double win as far as I’m concerned.
Has Viewcode tried to find his local friendly small town bank manager, recently? The one who plays golf with his dad and gives unsecured loans to people he knows well? And Wilson, his chief clerk?
And has he tried running PB by letter?
It actually *gets my goat* when I hear people wanking on and on about their “holibobs”
Think about us poor grunts who never get a holiday - the galley slaves of modern Britain. Just because you can’t see us doesn’t mean we don’t exist - quietly keeping things going