Notice in all the seats declared so far the swing from Tories to Reform/BXP as was is bigger than the swing to Labour
Notice in all the seats declared so far, Labour won.
Run after the Reform vote and you'll deserve to lose your current voters and current seats to get what Reform have instead.
More 2019 Tory voters have defected to Reform than Labour, that is just what the results show. Yes it needs both regained to win but the former are bigger so far
But if you chase Reform votes, you lose votes to Lab/LD. The proportion of post-truth nutters in the UK is probably only about 25%, and you're not going to win elections with that.
Do we? If you are voting Tory even now you are likely Tory until you die. If you are voting Reform however and voted Tory in 2019 that is more a protest vote with no love for Labour either
The ITV lady is annoying me know. She clearly has a narrative that she formed prior to the exit poll about why the result would be the way it was and trying to retrofit everything into that e.g. turn-out. Osborne just picked her up on it.
Rishi Sunak will announce his resignation as Conservative Party leader on Friday morning, the political commentator Tim Shipman has said
Shipman added that the party will then have to decide whether to launch a leadership contest straight away or draw it out to announce a new leader at the party conference in October
Robert Buckland understands how to win young voters back. So they will presumably ignore him.
Has he talked about building a million homes a year by the end of the parliament? If not he's as clueless as the rest of the useless wets.
The thing about Buckland is a lot of the things he is complaining about, the decline in standards, all really escalated with Boris Johnson, who he supported.
Yep, they all stayed quiet when Johnson rode his coach and four through normal political standards.
Growing concern within Labour about losing Barnsley East and Yvette Cooper’s seat of Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford to Reform
Didn't we get a rumour about Mrs Cooper Balls being in spot trouble last week and we all went get out of here....like the thought we would have a July election.
Indepedent Unionist Alex Easton seems to think he is on track to take the seat from Alliance in North Down The Ulster Unionist Party, without a Westminster seat, seem confident they have taken South Antrim from the DUP. They have chucked literally everything at that one seat. These are remarkably early predictions as we are not known to be fast on the count.
The only two other swings seats seen as possibly in play in Northern Ireland, East Belfast (Alliance vs DUP) and Lagan Valley (Alliance vs DUP), very little news so far but both reported tight.
Notice in all the seats declared so far the swing from Tories to Reform/BXP as was is bigger than the swing to Labour
Notice in all the seats declared so far, Labour won.
Run after the Reform vote and you'll deserve to lose your current voters and current seats to get what Reform have instead.
More 2019 Tory voters have defected to Reform than Labour, that is just what the results show. Yes it needs both regained to win but the former are bigger so far
But if you chase Reform votes, you lose votes to Lab/LD. The proportion of post-truth nutters in the UK is probably only about 25%, and you're not going to win elections with that.
Do we? If you are voting Tory even now you are likely Tory until you die. If you are voting Reform however and voted Tory in 2019 that is more a protest vote with no love for Labour either
Well, no. The Conservative party is still a rational party. Not to my taste, but still rational. To get the Reform vote, you have to give up on reason, and that will most definitely lose you even more votes to the centre.
Growing concern within Labour about losing Barnsley East and Yvette Cooper’s seat of Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford to Reform
Didn't we get a rumour about Mrs Cooper Balls being in spot trouble last week and we all went get out of here....like the thought we would have a July election.
A Labour landslide but also feels like they are also being put on notice by Reform... If they screw up in the the next five years?
We're getting a skewed view because these particular seats are declaring first. If the first results had been from Berkshire, Oxfordshire, Surrey, we'd be saying very different things.
It's a very weird period in coverage of any election. After the excitement of the exit poll, there is essentially fuck all in terms of substance for about four hours. Always happens.
A Labour landslide but also feels like they are also being put on notice by Reform... If they screw up in the the next five years?
We're getting a skewed view because these particular seats are declaring first. If the first results had been from Berkshire, Oxfordshire, Surrey, we'd be saying very different things.
Why is Reform putting Labour on notice anymore than the Tories?
@lewis_goodall Tories who would lose on the Swindon South swing
Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg Sir Iain Duncan Smith Steve Baker Bim Afolami David T C Davies Grant Shapps Mark Harper Johnny Mercer Victoria Prentis Damian Green Sir Simon Clarke Mel Stride Chris Philp Sir Liam Fox
A Labour landslide but also feels like they are also being put on notice by Reform... If they screw up in the the next five years?
We're getting a skewed view because these particular seats are declaring first. If the first results had been from Berkshire, Oxfordshire, Surrey, we'd be saying very different things.
Why is Reform putting Labour on notice anymore than the Tories?
The challenge for Reform changes now - they’ve been attacking the Tory Gvt and wanting mostly Tory voters. Now they’re in a competition with the Tories as to who can oppose a Labour Gvt more effectively. And they will probably have just a handful of MPs.
Labour 18,875 Reform 7,815 Cons 4228 Ind 3627 Greens 3228 LDs 1946
Swing 12% Labour to Reform
Andy had 2990 Greens. Greens overperforming again. WTAF happened to Labour?
If I may in pb style wade in on the fourth most important issue - why call a seat Newcastle Central AND west? Newcastle West would have done. Or Newcastle Central. Brevity, boundary commission!
A Labour landslide but also feels like they are also being put on notice by Reform... If they screw up in the the next five years?
We're getting a skewed view because these particular seats are declaring first. If the first results had been from Berkshire, Oxfordshire, Surrey, we'd be saying very different things.
Why is Reform putting Labour on notice anymore than the Tories?
Because the media love to suck the dick of the far right.
If true, that is very positive - it was in the exit poll as an almost complete toss up - 53% likelihood Tory, 47% Lib Dem. So it was essentially 0.5 of a seat in the LD projected 61.
@CorrectHorseBattery despite his ban and having called Corbyn wrong, got SKS right from the beginning. Wherever he is, I hope he knows that PB is behind him.
I predicted that the Greens would take quite a lot of votes from (the left of) Labour, and I reckon there's evidence of this already happening in the NE, and it will increase as results come in from the south and the cities. I expect the highest Green % ever, even though they'll only win a couple of seats. Combined with a bit of a hit from Reform, it explains why Labour may be around 36/37% rather than 42%.
Mercifully, the scale of this is nowhere near the scale of the Tory losses to Reform and, I hope, the Lib Dems.
A Labour landslide but also feels like they are also being put on notice by Reform... If they screw up in the the next five years?
It’s going to be an election of several different stories as always I think.
Labour are going to do exceptionally well in the traditional marginals.
The red wall is going to go back to Labour but with Reform surging.
Greens and Gaza independents doing well in the cities too.
it isnt just REFUK.
Labour are losing to their left and Tories are losing to RefUK.
This could be really interesting, as someone on the left. If Greens overperform in Labour seats and win in Bristol and Corbyn holds his seat, and RefUK can't turn vote share into seats I do think that we can push Starmer to the left. RefUK voters want their material needs met - they have been told the issue that is stopping them being met is immigrants, so you could deal with that without leaning into the anti immigrant settlement - and those on the left could be brought back with the small social democrat policies that are super popular to the electorate at large (water renationalisation, etc.) I am probably huffing on copium, but I really think this could be good.
had to give up on the BBC and switch to ITV - whatever happened to detailed number analysis that the anchors could understand - ended with Dimbleby and Maitless i think
The auto-updating is working ! Annoyingly there is a (elected) by the winner which means it won't parse as a number. I'll just manually adjust rather than trying anything fancy now.
Comments
Me: the story of the night is that Labour is winning a landslide majority.
Growing concern within Labour about losing Barnsley East and Yvette Cooper’s seat of Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford to Reform
https://electionresults.parliament.uk/elections/2368
Labour are going to do exceptionally well in the traditional marginals.
The red wall is going to go back to Labour but with Reform surging.
I won't believe it until I see it though.
Indepedent Unionist Alex Easton seems to think he is on track to take the seat from Alliance in North Down
The Ulster Unionist Party, without a Westminster seat, seem confident they have taken South Antrim from the DUP. They have chucked literally everything at that one seat.
These are remarkably early predictions as we are not known to be fast on the count.
The only two other swings seats seen as possibly in play in Northern Ireland, East Belfast (Alliance vs DUP) and Lagan Valley (Alliance vs DUP), very little news so far but both reported tight.
Damn it. I bet against that.
The split on the right isn't a warning for Labour - it is fantastic news for Labour.
I’ve been on itv.
https://x.com/benrileysmith/status/1809011561442464226
Time to pop some money on Labour beating Tony's 1997 landslide.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4835350#Comment_4835350
I'm standing by my hunch that the Portillo moment will be a prominent Labour MP losing to Reform. An Yvette Cooper or an Ed Miliband.
it isnt just REFUK.
Tories who would lose on the Swindon South swing
Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg
Sir Iain Duncan Smith
Steve Baker
Bim Afolami
David T C Davies
Grant Shapps
Mark Harper
Johnny Mercer
Victoria Prentis
Damian Green
Sir Simon Clarke
Mel Stride
Chris Philp
Sir Liam Fox
I expect the other Newcastle seats won’t see this level of voter switch.
I cocked up the Newcastle Central result, expecting Lab to get 29,000 and they got 18,800.
Libdems claiming Tunbridge Wells has fallen.
Plymouth Moor View
Croydon South
Romford
Uxbridge
Basingstoke
Earley & Woodley
Orpington
Hornchurch & Upminster
Hendon
Chipping Barnet
Mercifully, the scale of this is nowhere near the scale of the Tory losses to Reform and, I hope, the Lib Dems.
Con -20.0
Ref +14.7
LD -0.6
Grn +3.4
This could be really interesting, as someone on the left. If Greens overperform in Labour seats and win in Bristol and Corbyn holds his seat, and RefUK can't turn vote share into seats I do think that we can push Starmer to the left. RefUK voters want their material needs met - they have been told the issue that is stopping them being met is immigrants, so you could deal with that without leaning into the anti immigrant settlement - and those on the left could be brought back with the small social democrat policies that are super popular to the electorate at large (water renationalisation, etc.) I am probably huffing on copium, but I really think this could be good.
dark sideBBCNEW: senior Lib Dem source tells me they think LDs will take Harpenden (for the 1st time in 100 years) and Esher (Dominic Raab's former seat)
https://gails.com/pages/tunbridge-wells
Well-placed source has just predicted that Labour will win Aberdeen South, which would see SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn lose his seat
Big caveat alert: cross-party sources say it's too early to call because not enough boxes have been opened