I don’t like some of that detail for the LibDems. Bermondsey, Cambridge both 50/50 calls with Labour? Finchley a LD gain. The LDs aren’t targeting any of them.
It’s too closely working from a swing from last time, rather than newly modelled data. I reckon the LDs will be lucky to make 50, unless the Home Counties results are correspondingly better.
This is actually a polling miss. The Tories have - surprise surprise - done better than the polls expected and it seems that Labour have had a decline during the campaign that in any normal election would have been catastrophic. They were just so far ahead beforehand that it didn’t matter, and their main opponents shat the bed.
And SNP and Green seem to have underperformed polling. Looks like Lib Dems are probably on par.
So all in all, Plaid excepted, the more left wing the party the more the polls overstate them.
Next election, pollsters, just add 5% on to any right of centre party and you’ll be spot on.
I am struggling to understand this analysis.
Labour reverted back in the campaign to where they started, around 40%?
We will see.
Labour seem to have ended up on about 36%. That’s a crash from 44-45% at the start of the campaign. If the Conservatives had risen rather than fallen during the campaign Labour would have lost.
This is actually a polling miss. The Tories have - surprise surprise - done better than the polls expected and it seems that Labour have had a decline during the campaign that in any normal election would have been catastrophic. They were just so far ahead beforehand that it didn’t matter, and their main opponents shat the bed.
And SNP and Green seem to have underperformed polling. Looks like Lib Dems are probably on par.
So all in all, Plaid excepted, the more left wing the party the more the polls overstate them.
Next election, pollsters, just add 5% on to any right of centre party and you’ll be spot on.
I am struggling to understand this analysis.
Labour reverted back in the campaign to where they started, around 40%?
We will see.
Labour seem to have ended up on about 36%. That’s a crash from 44-45% at the start of the campaign. If the Conservatives had risen rather than fallen during the campaign Labour would have lost.
A bit of that is the mid campaign methodology change
Is it possible the outcome is more different than usual from the exit poll? Eg has Reform done worse and SNP better than these predictions?
Naively I would have thought it would be the opposite, in that I can see Reform voters being rather shy about telling their vote to the exit pollsters...worried about being labelled racist etc.
This is actually a polling miss. The Tories have - surprise surprise - done better than the polls expected and it seems that Labour have had a decline during the campaign that in any normal election would have been catastrophic. They were just so far ahead beforehand that it didn’t matter, and their main opponents shat the bed.
And SNP and Green seem to have underperformed polling. Looks like Lib Dems are probably on par.
So all in all, Plaid excepted, the more left wing the party the more the polls overstate them.
Says Aberdeenshire North and Moray East is 99% likely Con hold, 1% SNP gain.
HOWEVER reckon this is among the seats where margins separating various candidates likely to be VERY tight, so personally think its premature to write off chances of PB's own Rochdale in ANME.
I’m going to suggest for me the exit poll has overstated Reform by a few seats, definitely overstated Con in Scotland and possibly overstated the LibDems in England. The nature of this election has put it into much more uncertain territory.
Says Aberdeenshire North and Moray East is 99% likely Con hold, 1% SNP gain.
HOWEVER reckon this is among the seats where margins separating various candidates likely to be VERY tight, so personally think its premature to write off chances of PB's own Rochdale in ANME.
I hope Rochdale does well in ANME, but he isn't going to win, it's one of the weakest LD seats in the country.
Is it possible the outcome is more different than usual from the exit poll? Eg has Reform done worse and SNP better than these predictions?
Naively I would have thought it would be the opposite, in that I can see Reform voters being rather shy about telling their vote to the exit pollsters...worried about being labelled racist etc.
They don’t have to tell them though. It’s a second secret ballot.
Youse lot all waiting on Blyth and Ashington. The English Riviera. Wor all just chilling. Not dark yet here. But it's getting there.
When's the Ashington train line opening?
Christ alone knows. The train line is, and always has been, open. It takes freight to Lynemouth Power Station. They are only building Metro stations. Was at the Ashington one the other day. Looked like a regular Metro station through the fence. Issue seems to have been the determination to have automatic level crossings. Sacking the paid signallers has cost a bloody fortune according to rumour.
Sky's constituency lookup of the exit poll reckons Cambridge as basically 50/50 between Lab hold and LD gain. Does that seem really that likely? Certainly I haven't seen anything resembling serious LD activity here...
Just look at her face when the exit poll came out.
Karma.
Is the election not now a referendum on Scottish independence?
We cannot be kept prisoners forever, Independence is only a matter of time. The SNP do not equal Independence as they have proven.
The Scottish electorate is so volatile there is always hope for independence. Give it 5 years and you might have every seat going to the SNP again.
Or perhaps to a real Independence party if the turds are not expunged from SNP.
But independence isn't everything. This result is is likely to show indy parties getting way below the level of support independence has. Not everybody is voting on independence. Independence parties have to make a good offering on things OTHER than independence. They haven't recently, none of them have, so they're suffering for it.
The best thing the SNP could have done for independence is to govern well and say "look how good we are, trust us with the rest".
Instead they went down the road of "everything is shit due to Westminster".
Surprised I’m saying this but so far the BBC coverage is much better than Sky. A bit too rough and tumble on Sky, much calmer on the been and Mandy and Baker good studio speakers.
Says Aberdeenshire North and Moray East is 99% likely Con hold, 1% SNP gain.
HOWEVER reckon this is among the seats where margins separating various candidates likely to be VERY tight, so personally think its premature to write off chances of PB's own Rochdale in ANME.
I hope Rochdale does well in ANME, but he isn't going to win, it's one of the weakest LD seats in the country.
He’s doing his bit leaving more of the LD NEV for the seats that matter. Bravo.
This is actually a polling miss. The Tories have - surprise surprise - done better than the polls expected and it seems that Labour have had a decline during the campaign that in any normal election would have been catastrophic. They were just so far ahead beforehand that it didn’t matter, and their main opponents shat the bed.
And SNP and Green seem to have underperformed polling. Looks like Lib Dems are probably on par.
So all in all, Plaid excepted, the more left wing the party the more the polls overstate them.
Remember that the exit poll has historically accurate in aggregate, and not in specifics for each seat.
It can't pick up constituency level idiosyncrasies. That probably means there are betting opportunities if people are overreacting to the probabilities in an individual seat if you have local knowledge.
SNP look likely to lose some significant MPs - Stephen Flynn is TCTC Lab/Con & Joanna Cherry Lab Gain, Pete Wishart Con Gain, unfortunately that fatuous windbag, John Nicholson looks likely to hang on.....Cherry will be a loss to Parliament...
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 13m The fact Labour have won such a huge victory on such a - relatively - low vote share is a vindication of the Starmer/McSweeney political strategy, not a repudiation of it.
This is actually a polling miss. The Tories have - surprise surprise - done better than the polls expected and it seems that Labour have had a decline during the campaign that in any normal election would have been catastrophic. They were just so far ahead beforehand that it didn’t matter, and their main opponents shat the bed.
And SNP and Green seem to have underperformed polling. Looks like Lib Dems are probably on par.
So all in all, Plaid excepted, the more left wing the party the more the polls overstate them.
Next election, pollsters, just add 5% on to any right of centre party and you’ll be spot on.
Yes, our bet is going to be very close
Turns out that normalcy bias is called that for a reason. As per our discussion recently, yes a Lab win but a "normal" Lab win.
What's "normal" about over 400 seats?
It is just a big Lab win. People were talking about an ELE for the Cons, 300+ Lab majority and LibDems Official Opposition. Or Reform on five zillion seats and a redrawing of the British political landscape. It is a "normal" big win for Lab in a 2-party system. Is all.
Is it possible the outcome is more different than usual from the exit poll? Eg has Reform done worse and SNP better than these predictions?
Naively I would have thought it would be the opposite, in that I can see Reform voters being rather shy about telling their vote to the exit pollsters...worried about being labelled racist etc.
They don’t have to tell them though. It’s a second secret ballot.
SNP look likely to lose some significant MPs - Stephen Flynn is TCTC Lab/Con & Joanna Cherry Lab Gain, Pete Wishart Con Gain, unfortunately that fatuous windbag, John Nicholson looks likely to hang on.....Cherry will be a loss to Parliament...
But quite possibly a gain to Parliament House if she comes back to the bar. A woman of considerable talent.
This is actually a polling miss. The Tories have - surprise surprise - done better than the polls expected and it seems that Labour have had a decline during the campaign that in any normal election would have been catastrophic. They were just so far ahead beforehand that it didn’t matter, and their main opponents shat the bed.
And SNP and Green seem to have underperformed polling. Looks like Lib Dems are probably on par.
So all in all, Plaid excepted, the more left wing the party the more the polls overstate them.
This is actually a polling miss. The Tories have - surprise surprise - done better than the polls expected and it seems that Labour have had a decline during the campaign that in any normal election would have been catastrophic. They were just so far ahead beforehand that it didn’t matter, and their main opponents shat the bed.
And SNP and Green seem to have underperformed polling. Looks like Lib Dems are probably on par.
So all in all, Plaid excepted, the more left wing the party the more the polls overstate them.
I don’t like some of that detail for the LibDems. Bermondsey, Cambridge both 50/50 calls with Labour? Finchley a LD gain. The LDs aren’t targeting any of them.
It’s too closely working from a swing from last time, rather than newly modelled data. I reckon the LDs will be lucky to make 50, unless the Home Counties results are correspondingly better.
In Bermondsey the sitting MP has a full house of bullying, racism, sexual harrassment and addiction scandals, so could be an interesting one. Switched at least one vote from Labour to LD. Wish I had taken some of the 10/1+ now!
My friends are aghast at the reform vote. But voters should be represented in a democracy; we need to engage with what these people are concerned about.
Lab 36.1% (+3.2) Con 25.8% (-18.9) Ref 17.2% (+15.2) Lib 9.4% (-2.5) Gre 6.1% (+3.4) SNP 2.6%
If true, the split between right and left is not much changed, since 2019, but the split in the right vote has delivered 150 seats to Labour and Lib Dem’s.
Is it possible the outcome is more different than usual from the exit poll? Eg has Reform done worse and SNP better than these predictions?
Naively I would have thought it would be the opposite, in that I can see Reform voters being rather shy about telling their vote to the exit pollsters...worried about being labelled racist etc.
They don’t have to tell them though. It’s a second secret ballot.
Yeah, but if you are conspiracy minded....
Yeah that’s fair. My instinct is that Reform is the one most likely to be out, just due to lack of good previous data at these polling levels.
Lab 36.1% (+3.2) Con 25.8% (-18.9) Ref 17.2% (+15.2) Lib 9.4% (-2.5) Gre 6.1% (+3.4) SNP 2.6%
If true, the split between right and left is not much changed, since 2019, but the split in the right vote has delivered 150 seats to Labour and Lib Dem’s.
Seat forecast is a product of national vote shares and their geographic distribution Tory support falling much more heavily in Tory held seats Much of this damage being caused by Reform, not Labour Labour is doing relatively better in Tory and SNP held seats The Lib Dems are outperforming in the Con-LD contests
Major points followed by caveats. Estimates could be out, and he is least certain about the SNP and especially Reform seat counts, due to fewer sampling points in Scotland, and large numbers of seats that Reform have a 20-30% chance of capture.
Lab 36.1% (+3.2) Con 25.8% (-18.9) Ref 17.2% (+15.2) Lib 9.4% (-2.5) Gre 6.1% (+3.4) SNP 2.6%
Wow. LDs below 10%. I am not sure I see all those 63 going into their column then, TBH.
Especially when you look at which seats they are predicting. There would be some betting opps but I think Ladbrokes has closed its seat bets and BF has little liquidity on most of them
Comments
It’s too closely working from a swing from last time, rather than newly modelled data. I reckon the LDs will be lucky to make 50, unless the Home Counties results are correspondingly better.
Key to a future takeover of the Tories, or ready-made implosion of parliamentary incompetents ?
They'll certainly outnumber the tattered remnants in Northern England if these numbers are borne out. All the Red Wall gains are going to be lost.
HOWEVER reckon this is among the seats where margins separating various candidates likely to be VERY tight, so personally think its premature to write off chances of PB's own Rochdale in ANME.
91% to gain Hartlepool
Was the Tories' safest seat in the country in 1979.
Whisky bottle open?
The train line is, and always has been, open. It takes freight to Lynemouth Power Station.
They are only building Metro stations. Was at the Ashington one the other day. Looked like a regular Metro station through the fence.
Issue seems to have been the determination to have automatic level crossings. Sacking the paid signallers has cost a bloody fortune according to rumour.
The outgoing Tory had an 18k majority, and survived the Blair landslides with room to spare.
Extraordinary.
My heart wanted the Tories destroyed, my head merely wanted them to have a good spanking. My head is happy.
It’s going to be difficult for Labour but the work begins now.
Con 84% likelihood
Lab 8%
Reform 8%
Suggest it could be a 3 way battle.
Instead they went down the road of "everything is shit due to Westminster".
Popular vote estimates from GB News:
Lab 36.1% (+3.2)
Con 25.8% (-18.9)
Ref 17.2% (+15.2)
Lib 9.4% (-2.5)
Gre 6.1% (+3.4)
SNP 2.6%
Boris' 80 seat majority was an absolute trouncing.
Lab: Me: 419 - Exit Poll: 410
Cons: Me: 121 - Exit Poll: 131
LibDems: Me: 63 - Exit Poll: 61
Reform: Me 1 - Exit Poll: 13
So shocking for Reform - that is def head vs heart - but not bad otherwise.
It can't pick up constituency level idiosyncrasies. That probably means there are betting opportunities if people are overreacting to the probabilities in an individual seat if you have local knowledge.
@DPJHodges
·
13m
The fact Labour have won such a huge victory on such a - relatively - low vote share is a vindication of the Starmer/McSweeney political strategy, not a repudiation of it.
We move fast up here.
Shit Lib Dem vote share too
I expect Lammy will be busy "growing a cervix".....
The guru has spoken!
Hm....
Seat forecast is a product of national vote shares and their geographic distribution
Tory support falling much more heavily in Tory held seats
Much of this damage being caused by Reform, not Labour
Labour is doing relatively better in Tory and SNP held seats
The Lib Dems are outperforming in the Con-LD contests
Major points followed by caveats. Estimates could be out, and he is least certain about the SNP and especially Reform seat counts, due to fewer sampling points in Scotland, and large numbers of seats that Reform have a 20-30% chance of capture.
Same places as tolled the bell in the Referendum
Not long to go now.
Exit poll