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The exit poll brings bad news for the MRPs and the SNP – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,917
edited July 4 in General
The exit poll brings bad news for the MRPs and the SNP – politicalbetting.com

Looks like those MRPs were wrong. pic.twitter.com/i8O0su9jA1

Read the full story here

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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    edited July 4
    Good evening again everyone :smile:

    Perfect results as far as I’m concerned.

    I’m glad this isn’t an extinction for the Conservatives. They need to hold the centre-right.

    A superb-looking result for Labour. LibDems brilliant too.

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    Simon_PeachSimon_Peach Posts: 421
    One short of a Supermajority… total vindication of Sunak strategy
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,261
    13! I was fully part of the reform surge is over-engaged panels thesis. Wow. Also lmao SNP. ITV one to watch her cry.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    I wasn't too far out in my eve of poll posted 24 hours ago, bit high on SNP and low on Reform.

    This is my eve of poll forecast. I voted LD.

    Lab 424
    Con127
    LD 49
    SNP 22
    Gr 2
    PC 3
    REF 2
    OTH 3
    NI 18

    Turnout 61%


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    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,705
    triumph and vindication for Farage
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    On the bright side, desperately bad for the SNP
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,892
    Wouldn't surprise me if at least some of the Reform wins are Labour seats. A Barnsley or Hull seat?
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    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,854
    I apologise for claiming that the SNP might be as high as 15.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,085
    From a few days ago:

    So that gives my base case as follows:

    Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.

    Baxtering gives a 188-seat Lab majority which is not too shabby.

    Cons party seats 121, Lab 419 which I have backed.


    Happy with that.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,965

    triumph and vindication for Farage

    In the Jeremy Corbyn triumph sense?
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    maxhmaxh Posts: 1,025
    Quite pleased with that on all levels except the Reform seats.

    Most of my bets were over 100 Con seats.

    Cons aren't wiped out which is good imo.

    I didn't believe Reform would deliver, I'll lose a bit on Reform seat numbers.
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    DruttDrutt Posts: 1,116
    Artist said:

    Wouldn't surprise me if at least some of the Reform wins are Labour seats. A Barnsley or Hull seat?

    It'll be all the usual three-ways, as the bishops said to the actress.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,308

    triumph and vindication for Farage

    Yep: big Reform outperformance. Suggests they are on 18-20%.

    That said... there are going to be a *lot* of very close results. So, going to be a very interesting evening.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,743
    Everyone is presumably switching to ITV to see Sturgeon's face.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,247
    Starmer swing more seats than Blair!!!!
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,782
    Not a wipeout for the Tories, and I think tomorrow morning the Tory number is up by ~20 and the Labour and Lib Dem numbers drop by ~10 each
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,085
    WHAT ARE THE IMPLIED VOTESHARES???!!
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,758
    So, now we wait to see which Tories survive to contest the leadership contest.
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    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 20,296
    13 seats for Farage is 13 too many but still less than a quarter of what the Lib Dems get and 1/10th of what the Tories got.

    They're still shit, Putinist nobodies.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,034
    I messaged JohnO earlier on today and I said the Tories would get 110-130 seats.
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    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,854
    The Ming vase remains intact.
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    PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 578
    Farage is here to stay in some form
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    FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,229
    In the main, the electorate usually gets things right. I reckon this is about right considering.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,965
    Do we get any indication of which seats Reform is predicted to win?
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    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,962
    Assuming the exit poll is broadly correct, which MRP was the most accurate?
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    WHAT are the percentages????
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    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,705
    could sunderland south go reform?
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,237
    Baxter is a big loser here. I thought it was overcooked and so it turns out to be. Though it did IIRC predict a fair few REF seats so fair play there.
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    TazTaz Posts: 12,568
    Heathener said:

    Good evening again everyone :smile:

    Perfect results as far as I’m concerned.

    I’m glad this isn’t an extinction for the Conservatives. They need to hold the centre-right.

    A superb-looking result for Labour. LibDems too.

    I posted in the afternoon this will be your vindication.

    Well done. You’ve been saying it for a while.
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,701
    Angela bright enough to have a brolly
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    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,739
    Evening all.

    Channel 5 coverage already looking the best.
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    Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 630
    A 170 seat majority can still be overturned in one election
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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,562
    @Farooq I have a late update to my prediction….
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,758
    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1808970758166806966

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    Key takeaway from that is Nigel Farage is the new leader of the British Right.
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    EabhalEabhal Posts: 7,157
    Tory gains from the SNP in Scotland!

    (possible)
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    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,739
    Or Channel 4, even, that should have said !
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,965
    TOPPING said:

    WHAT ARE THE IMPLIED VOTESHARES???!!

    We never get them from a Curtice/Thrasher exit poll.
    It doesn't work like that.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,772

    13 seats for Farage is 13 too many but still less than a quarter of what the Lib Dems get and 1/10th of what the Tories got.

    They're still shit, Putinist nobodies.

    Be interesting to see the actual percentages
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    edited July 4
    CatMan said:

    Assuming the exit poll is broadly correct, which MRP was the most accurate?

    More in Common I think.

    https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1808501142856360199?t=uB8-NK9p_-vj5CeJLkg6yw&s=19
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Labour vote only up 2 or 3 outside Scotland!
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    KnightOutKnightOut Posts: 27
    So, on these numbers will there be any teams out of the 92 still based in Tory seats?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    I suspect Reform is a bit overstated - but the SNP prediction a charm - and they’ll lose a boatload of short money’
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    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,449
    Things are already looking up. Angela Rayner has an umbrella.
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    ChristopherChristopher Posts: 91
    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1808970758166806966

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    Key takeaway from that is Nigel Farage is the new leader of the British Right.

    Indeed Reform have smashed expectations acvording to this poll. Goodwin was right.
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    Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 630
    Labour up 18% in Scotland and 2% down in London
    Efficient af
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,085
    dixiedean said:

    TOPPING said:

    WHAT ARE THE IMPLIED VOTESHARES???!!

    We never get them from a Curtice/Thrasher exit poll.
    It doesn't work like that.
    True but the MRPs imply voteshares I wondered if this was similar.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    TOPPING said:

    WHAT ARE THE IMPLIED VOTESHARES???!!

    Yes,quite

    It's looking horribly like I've LOST my vote - incredibly - to @Sandpit and the Tories will gain a seat, however I need to know if I've lost to @TimS
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    Taz said:

    Heathener said:

    Good evening again everyone :smile:

    Perfect results as far as I’m concerned.

    I’m glad this isn’t an extinction for the Conservatives. They need to hold the centre-right.

    A superb-looking result for Labour. LibDems too.

    I posted in the afternoon this will be your vindication.

    Well done. You’ve been saying it for a while.
    Awww sweet. Thank you :blush:

    xx
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,782
    Leon said:

    WHAT are the percentages????

    We won't get those for a few hours at least.
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,460
    Leon said:

    On the bright side, desperately bad for the SNP

    Hilarious. Now that’s nemesis for the Sturgeon Hubris.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,034

    I suspect Reform is a bit overstated - but the SNP prediction a charm - and they’ll lose a boatload of short money’

    More importantly third party status.

    Fifth largest party if the exit poll is right.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,250
    The shares I have that match up with Lab 407, Con 127 are Lab 35.8%, Con 24.6%.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,547
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    WHAT ARE THE IMPLIED VOTESHARES???!!

    Yes,quite

    It's looking horribly like I've LOST my vote - incredibly - to @Sandpit and the Tories will gain a seat, however I need to know if I've lost to @TimS
    I seem to remember they are very coy about this throughout the night. Its part of the magic box.
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,048

    13 seats for Farage is 13 too many but still less than a quarter of what the Lib Dems get and 1/10th of what the Tories got.

    They're still shit, Putinist nobodies.

    It also means the loons, fruitcakes and closet racists that get elected will be in for a fair bit of scrutiny. Could be a clown show to rival the last Conservative government unless Reform have managed to match their best candidates to the winnable seats.

    We will, however, be seeing more of Farage :disappointed:
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,539
    Has anyone said WHICH seats Reform has won?
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    DruttDrutt Posts: 1,116
    Ed Davey has got himself fifty more seats and he's spent the last five weeks dicking about at Alton Towers. Massive result for LD
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,237
    I love how the Tory figure is like “HOLY SH*T but actually it’s kinda OK because it could have been 60…..”
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    Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 630
    rcs1000 said:

    triumph and vindication for Farage

    Yep: big Reform outperformance. Suggests they are on 18-20%.

    That said... there are going to be a *lot* of very close results. So, going to be a very interesting evening.
    20% for reform would be huge (and in line with my prediction)
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    SNP 10 = Con Gain Perth and Kinross??
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,821
    I suspect that Lab, Con, LD and Ref would all be happy with that result.

    Can we lock it in and then have fun watching the individual results ?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    Working from the MRPs, I have a list of 87 LibDem targets in total, including 8 notionally held. Some look most unlikely (including a handful of Labour ones) and some look like real long shots. To get most of the rest would be remarkable.

    Also note that if REF are above the one or two seat range, there will likely be a lot of close Con/Ref contests, and that could tip either way.
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    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,767
    Eabhal said:

    Tory gains from the SNP in Scotland!

    (possible)

    There was meant to be at least one on the table, but I can't remember which.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    I might win a few of my Scottish seat longshot bets on those SNP figures.
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    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,048
    Really around 400 is a perfect number for an incoming government. If Starmer had got 500 then he's still only got the same number of government jobs to dish out and in MPs 400-500 there would have been some odd people that would know they would only have one term. But I'm still a little bit disappointed with a majority of 'only' 140 ish (SNP 10 means that Labour are at the highwater mark in Scotland and there's only downside there).
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    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,705
    no indies or workers predicted to win?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,308
    I would guess the vote shares are:

    Labour 37%
    Con 25%
    Reform 19%
    LD 12%
    Green 5%
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,250
    MikeL said:

    Has anyone said WHICH seats Reform has won?

    It's probably going to include one or both of the Barnsley seats, even though one of the candidates has been disowned by Farage.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,022

    SNP 10 = Con Gain Perth and Kinross??

    Gordon I think too
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,085

    Baxter is a big loser here. I thought it was overcooked and so it turns out to be. Though it did IIRC predict a fair few REF seats so fair play there.

    Electoral Calculus started out with Reform on 19 seats a week or three ago and then revised it down to seven seats, which is where it stayed.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,429
    2 taxis for the SNP?

    Or one caravan?
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    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,798
    MaxPB said:

    Not a wipeout for the Tories, and I think tomorrow morning the Tory number is up by ~20 and the Labour and Lib Dem numbers drop by ~10 each

    For betting reasons, if the Tory total could just sneak over 150...
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,437
    Kerching Lab implied vote share about 38% according to ITV

    Four figure winning night for me if they get less than 12,877,000 votes

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    TazTaz Posts: 12,568

    Labour vote only up 2 or 3 outside Scotland!

    Corbyn did better in 2017. Explain that SKS fans.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,247
    So Starmer is officially the most successful leader of the opposition. Astonishing to swing 200 seats
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    ChristopherChristopher Posts: 91

    I love how the Tory figure is like “HOLY SH*T but actually it’s kinda OK because it could have been 60…..”

    Think labour have badly underperformed to be honest and thats probably saved 30 to 50 tory seats.
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    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 20,296
    Compared to Rishi, Angela showing the incoming government is bright enough to know how brollies work at least.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061
    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1808970758166806966

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    Key takeaway from that is Nigel Farage is the new leader of the British Right.

    That begs the question of whether Nigel Farage is one of the 13-ish.
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    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,532
    dixiedean said:

    TOPPING said:

    WHAT ARE THE IMPLIED VOTESHARES???!!

    We never get them from a Curtice/Thrasher exit poll.
    It doesn't work like that.
    BBC have just shown a table showing relatively small LAB vote increase by region 3 or 4%. 18% in Scotland. A small fall in London. Is it possible LAB have only got 35% overall but if CON are on 25% then LAB maj 170 completely plausible. 1997 LAB maj around 190 on 11% lead approx
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,250
    edited July 4
    TOPPING said:

    WHAT ARE THE IMPLIED VOTESHARES???!!

    We don't know yet, but must be something like Lab 36/37%, Con 24/25%.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Pulpstar said:

    SNP 10 = Con Gain Perth and Kinross??

    Gordon I think too
    Gordon is a notional hold
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,048
    MikeL said:

    Has anyone said WHICH seats Reform has won?

    I assume the exit poll, like the MRPs is probabilistic totals? There will be many too close to call, but 50% chance in 10 seats adds up to ~5. You'd be further out calling seat totals on the most likely in each constituency.

    There will be a list of the 13 most likely seats, but I don't think that's ever shared?
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,217
    Something for everyone, except the SNP, to smile about if that is the result.
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    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,798
    Rees mogg 47% chance to hold on
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,247
    Interesting probabilistic view on bbc.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,457

    Just look at her face when the exit poll came out.


    Karma.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Penny a 25% chance!
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,547

    I might win a few of my Scottish seat longshot bets on those SNP figures.

    If they only have 10 it seems unlikely that they will have 3 gains off the Tories as forecast. I think we will find the swing against the Tories will be smaller than it is nationally.
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    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,798
    Steve Baker 1%. Who here tipped him for LotO?
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,965

    no indies or workers predicted to win?

    Guess not.
    At least Galloway is gone.
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    FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,211
    Looks like Sutton Coldfield will be staying blue after all, but close! Will be worth staying up for.
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    Often exit polls can be out by 20-25 seats. Possible value in Labour 350-399 range on BF. Currently 5.5
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,758
    Chances of winning:

    Hunt: 19%
    Mordaunt: 25%
    Rees-Mogg: 47%
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,437
    JRM 47% chance or retaining seat according to BBC
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    Bloody hell, SNP nearly as unpopular as the Tories.
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    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 20,296
    81% chance of the Chancellor losing his seat.

    Who was the last Chancellor to lose their seat?
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    I'm delighted with my prediction
This discussion has been closed.