Notes: “Someone had blundered”. Despite what Tennyson says, there were more than 600 of them at the start, although only 195 were left at the end, a loss of 68 per cent. This is, as it happens, also the rate for the Titanic, overall, including crew and passengers.
Cons have a big decision to make now - do they try to entice the Reform voters or tack back to a more Cameroonian approach.
They went the Reform, UKIP as was, route in 2017 and, Brexit getting done aside, have this evening reaped the rewards of that strategy. Will they learn this time round.
Assuming the exit poll is broadly correct, which MRP was the most accurate?
None of them. Survation was good on Lib Dems, Reform and SNP but woefully short on the Conservative number. Other MRPs, eg YouGov, much better on the Conservatives but had Reform on only a couple of seats.
I should add this stuff is tricky. It only takes a vote share up or down by a single percentage point to make a big difference in seat numbers.
I based my prediction on YouGov, because their MRP has a good track record. I think getting REF wrong is more forgivable than getting CON wrong.
Reform may have 13, but I don't think they will take over the tories now. I would much rather a moderate right survives to block the radicals than the tories getting wiped out. The tories will know that there is not tacking to the right. Reform will never stop before the tories become reform, so the tories might as well double down on credible centre right policies for a future millenial voting base
If the Tories are on 130, they will not be in hock to Reform, particularly as amongst the Reform MPs there will be some nutters.
I predict there’ll be Tory/Reform psychodrama all the way through the next parliament. All it takes are a couple of by elections in the red wall where REF are now the main challenger and we’ll be getting wall to wall coverage of the media musing whether they need to team up.
Well it looks like I've done my money if the exit poll I've just seen stays on target. I had dipped into the markets at various points based on the view that the Conservatives would get above 140 seats. The exit poll suggests 130 odd.
Yes I'd have it around that too, maybe reform a couple of points lower and the LDs a couple higher given the projected seats.
However it does show that the next Tory leader is going to have to shift the party rightwards. Maybe not as far as Braverman but definitely more than they are now which has felt centre left since Theresa May.
In another universe, Rishi doesn't make an absolute balls of the campaign, particularly the start, he doesn't propose nonsense like National Service, meaning no Farage, and we are probably having a total different conversation.
In another universe the imbecilic Tories didn't elect Liz Truss as leader.
Rishi isn't very good but I doubt he would've failed historically badly without that additional baggage.
Well it looks like I've done my money if the exit poll I've just seen stays on target. I had dipped into the markets at various points based on the view that the Conservatives would get above 140 seats. The exit poll suggests 130 odd.
Cons have a big decision to make now - do they try to entice the Reform voters or tack back to a more Cameroonian approach.
They went the Reform, UKIP as was, route in 2017 and, Brexit getting done aside, have this evening reaped the rewards of that strategy. Will they learn this time round.
I think that by calling the early election Sunak has actually saved the conservative party. Things were not going to get any better for them had it been put off for another 6 months.
Notes: “Someone had blundered”. Despite what Tennyson says, there were more than 600 of them at the start, although only 195 were left at the end, a loss of 68 per cent. This is, as it happens, also the rate for the Titanic, overall, including crew and passengers.
Further note IF the exit poll is correct, Cons have lost equivalent of 64% of Tory MPS elected at 2019 GE.
Starmer and Labour need to go all out and deliver on things quickly. Get all the unpopular stuff out of the way early on, planning reform etc, go for broke - and hope that by 2029 they are popular with the electorate with a growing economy.
Tories down 10% in Scotland so that would be 15%, can't imagine more than one gain for them in Scotland and that's only if the SNP have been very inefficient in their vote distribution.
Yes I'd have it around that too, maybe reform a couple of points lower and the LDs a couple higher given the projected seats.
However it does show that the next Tory leader is going to have to shift the party rightwards. Maybe not as far as Braverman but definitely more than they are now which has felt centre left since Theresa May.
In another universe, Rishi doesn't make an absolute balls of the campaign, particularly the start, he doesn't propose nonsense like National Service, meaning no Farage, and we are probably having a total different conversation.
In another universe the imbecilic Tories didn't elect Liz Truss as leader.
Rishi isn't very good but I doubt he would've failed historically badly without that additional baggage.
That is a good point.
For all the failing, for all the scandal, for all the crap administration. I have said this for donkeys years, you mess with people's mortgages, you are absolutely f##ked in this country. Truss actions have been linked (rightly or wrongly) to big spike in interest rates and that is when the British public get their pitchforks ready. Well not quite, we aren't France, they get their biros ready for the voting booth.
This is actually a polling miss. The Tories have - surprise surprise - done better than the polls expected and it seems that Labour have had a decline during the campaign that in any normal election would have been catastrophic. They were just so far ahead beforehand that it didn’t matter, and their main opponents shat the bed.
And SNP and Green seem to have underperformed polling. Looks like Lib Dems are probably on par.
So all in all, Plaid excepted, the more left wing the party the more the polls overstate them.
I think that by calling the early election Sunak has actually saved the conservative party. Things were not going to get any better for them had it been put off for another 6 months.
It would merely have given more time for Conservative MPs to disgrace themselves and for the country to get even more annoyed with them.
If the Reform vote share is ~20%, is the margin of error for the exit poll likely to be bigger than last time? Some seats will be unexpectedly marginal and we could end up with a lot of close calls or recounts.
Starmer and Labour need to go all out and deliver on things quickly. Get all the unpopular stuff out of the way early on, planning reform etc, go for broke - and hope that by 2029 they are popular with the electorate with a growing economy.
Absolutely. Cowardice will just deliver a defeat in 2029.
This is actually a polling miss. The Tories have - surprise surprise - done better than the polls expected and it seems that Labour have had a decline during the campaign that in any normal election would have been catastrophic. They were just so far ahead beforehand that it didn’t matter, and their main opponents shat the bed.
And SNP and Green seem to have underperformed polling. Looks like Lib Dems are probably on par.
So all in all, Plaid excepted, the more left wing the party the more the polls overstate them.
That was almost word for word John Prescott's reaction to the 1997 exit poll. I'm sure she's seen that before.
I had to turn her off - why can't she just answer the bleedin' question! I do my best to "big up" politicians but they don't do themselves any favours.
130 or so is towards the upper end of my prediction of 50-150 for the Tories.
Sunak may feel he won't be condemned for ever after all, as it may be roughly the result the Tories would have got over at any time over the last two years since Truss. Meanwhile Channel 4 is showing the BBC how to do it, or how it used to do it.
Comments
A shaved monkey wearing a red rosette could have been PM.
Or even Joe Biden...
Charge of the Light Brigade
119 Conservatives left after election
Notes: “Someone had blundered”. Despite what Tennyson says, there were more than 600 of them at the start, although only 195 were left at the end, a loss of 68 per cent. This is, as it happens, also the rate for the Titanic, overall, including crew and passengers.
They went the Reform, UKIP as was, route in 2017 and, Brexit getting done aside, have this evening reaped the rewards of that strategy. Will they learn this time round.
Hope Penny nabs it
Thanks
OTOH, if Sunak loses his seat...
But Labour under 40% to me implies a large amount of tactical voting, which the MRPs did pick up.
Some ya win...
SKS looks like being circa 1 million votes short of Jezza 2017. How unpopular must he be
SKS fans please explain how that could possibly be right.
1. Tories on 12 seats in Scotland
2. Reform on 13 seats
Everything else looks very plausible.
(Just joking.)
Scotland is a different country.
I think there will be a lot of VERY close results. I still think Labour can beat Blair's 1997.
Rishi isn't very good but I doubt he would've failed historically badly without that additional baggage.
It aims to predict seats not votes.
Which is why it is usually so accurate.
Hmpf.
For all the failing, for all the scandal, for all the crap administration. I have said this for donkeys years, you mess with people's mortgages, you are absolutely f##ked in this country. Truss actions have been linked (rightly or wrongly) to big spike in interest rates and that is when the British public get their pitchforks ready. Well not quite, we aren't France, they get their biros ready for the voting booth.
Have seat details been published online anywhere?
- Labour 410 vs 419
- Tories 131 vs 166
- Lib Dems 53 vs 52
And SNP and Green seem to have underperformed polling. Looks like Lib Dems are probably on par.
So all in all, Plaid excepted, the more left wing the party the more the polls overstate them.
I may even have won my mini bet with @Leon
Next election, pollsters, just add 5% on to any right of centre party and you’ll be spot on.
The Lib Dems on 61 does imply tactical voting to me.
I think Labour will end up just below 40% of the vote, within MoE of most of the polls.
I think it must be a good LD vote percentage. The legacy of the Coalition is over.
Well done Sir Ed Davey.
Barnsley South
likely Reform UK gain - 98% likelyhood
possible Lab hold2%
Pleased about this one, on for £15 at 8-1.
Labour reverted back in the campaign to where they started, around 40%?
We will see.
Uncertainty about SNP, Reform total apparently. All very close.
Sunak may feel he won't be condemned for ever after all, as it may be roughly the result the Tories would have got over at any time over the last two years since Truss. Meanwhile Channel 4 is showing the BBC how to do it, or how it used to do it.