I’m going to suggest for me the exit poll has overstated Reform by a few seats, definitely overstated Con in Scotland and possibly overstated the LibDems in England. The nature of this election has put it into much more uncertain territory.
The exit poll doesn't smell right but perhaps that is due to the number of minor parties doing better than expected. I'd want to see some actual results though.
I'm a tad annoyed because I had figures of Lab 407, Con 127, LD 70 ready at 6:45 this morning but decided to wait until tonight to post. But I did send the spreadsheet to a few people at that time, so can prove I did have it ready at that time.
Lab 36.1% (+3.2) Con 25.8% (-18.9) Ref 17.2% (+15.2) Lib 9.4% (-2.5) Gre 6.1% (+3.4) SNP 2.6%
Wow. LDs below 10%. I am not sure I see all those 63 going into their column then, TBH.
Especially when you look at which seats they are predicting. There would be some betting opps but I think Ladbrokes has closed its seat bets and BF has little liquidity on most of them
The GB News doesn't seem to tally with the BBC regional vote share moves, Scotland +0%, North +0%, Midlands +0%, Wales +0%, London -1%, South +1%. That can't equal -2.5% nationally.
I’m going to suggest for me the exit poll has overstated Reform by a few seats, definitely overstated Con in Scotland and possibly overstated the LibDems in England. The nature of this election has put it into much more uncertain territory.
The exit poll doesn't smell right but perhaps that is due to the number of minor parties doing better than expected. I'd want to see some actual results though.
Maybe that is just what happens when the two main parties are not popular and the vote is not close enough that we have to pick one or t'other?
Doncaster E 57% Lab, 43% Ref Boston 48% Con 45% Ref Pontefract 83% Lab hold, 17% Reform gain
Ashfield - 46% Lab gain, 44% other gain (don't know if this is Ashfield indies) Rother Valley - 61% Lab gain, 39% reform gain Hull W - Lab gain 51%, Reform gain 49%
Curtice seems to be seriously undermining his own exit poll here. He seems doubtful about Ref 13 and SNP 10.
Hm....
He's not, he's describing areas of uncertainty.
Certainty is a very big thing in science and, I'm sure, in psephology. He's not going to make firm predictions unless very sure, and the reasons given for the uncertainty surrounding some party seat counts appears sound.
We seem to be saying the Labour lead is soft because the Lib Dems are about to get their best result since 2005 despite being a party that everyone knew was going to put Labour in power
We seem to be saying the Labour lead is soft because the Lib Dems are about to get their best result since 2005 despite being a party that everyone knew was going to put Labour in power
I can see the myths starting to build.
You seem permanently unhappy. Your team have just won. Shouldn't you be at least a bit happy?
We seem to be saying the Labour lead is soft because the Lib Dems are about to get their best result since 2005 despite being a party that everyone knew was going to put Labour in power
I can see the myths starting to build.
It looks like the Lib Dem share of the vote share has not really changed. Just very well organised
We seem to be saying the Labour lead is soft because the Lib Dems are about to get their best result since 2005 despite being a party that everyone knew was going to put Labour in power
I can see the myths starting to build.
You seem permanently unhappy. Your team have just won. Shouldn't you be at least a bit happy?
I hit 21 off 17, I had a great night.
They aren't "my team", I've voted Tory before, perhaps you'd like to get my vote back one day?
We seem to be saying the Labour lead is soft because the Lib Dems are about to get their best result since 2005 despite being a party that everyone knew was going to put Labour in power
I can see the myths starting to build.
I think it’s more that they are barely getting a third of the votes. No better than Cameron did etc.
My friends are aghast at the reform vote. But voters should be represented in a democracy; we need to engage with what these people are concerned about.
About the last party I would vote for, but they deserve some seats for sure, its not an issue for me at all. Firstly they are no different to a significant wing of the Tory party so the claims of beyond the pale are overdone. Secondly they represent a significant proportion of the electorate and therefore deserve representation. That's just democracy.
We seem to be saying the Labour lead is soft because the Lib Dems are about to get their best result since 2005 despite being a party that everyone knew was going to put Labour in power
I can see the myths starting to build.
You seem permanently unhappy. Your team have just won. Shouldn't you be at least a bit happy?
I hit 21 off 17, I had a great night.
They aren't "my team", I've voted Tory before, perhaps you'd like to get my vote back one day?
I am not a Tory, so its not really for me to get your vote or not. I only say your team, because you have been very vocal in support of Labour over the past few elections and they have finally found a way to win.
We seem to be saying the Labour lead is soft because the Lib Dems are about to get their best result since 2005 despite being a party that everyone knew was going to put Labour in power
I can see the myths starting to build.
You seem permanently unhappy. Your team have just won. Shouldn't you be at least a bit happy?
I hit 21 off 17, I had a great night.
They aren't "my team", I've voted Tory before, perhaps you'd like to get my vote back one day?
I am not a Tory. I say your team, because you have been very vocal in support of Labour over the past few elections.
I stand by that - but as I said, I have voted Tory before and would do so again. I am a younger voter, the kind of voter the Tories used to win. Shall we discuss how to get these voters back?
Lab 36.1% (+3.2) Con 25.8% (-18.9) Ref 17.2% (+15.2) Lib 9.4% (-2.5) Gre 6.1% (+3.4) SNP 2.6%
If that’s the case then Starmer really is a lucky general. 36.1% and a majority over 150?
But it means the lead is soft. A good Tory leader could make a huge dent in that majority in 2029/30.
Absolutely, despite what Heathener blathers about, the next election is totally in play. Does need a decent Tory leader though, not a given.
Based on the mood music, you're about to do a Labour 2015.
Not me. Just commenting on the data we have. Voted Lib Dem very happily this morning, although the local Tory is likely to hold on.
I absolutely think if the Tories go back to the centre ground 2029 is in play. But if they go full right wing it won't work. Do not do a me and vote for Jezza-style please.
Reform up in Labour seats, danger for Labour assuming they're close seats.
Will be interesting to see if any Lab seats - probably in bricks in the red wall that were just held in 2019 - actually flip Reform. If they do, mind you, there won't be many.
We seem to be saying the Labour lead is soft because the Lib Dems are about to get their best result since 2005 despite being a party that everyone knew was going to put Labour in power
I can see the myths starting to build.
You seem permanently unhappy. Your team have just won. Shouldn't you be at least a bit happy?
I hit 21 off 17, I had a great night.
They aren't "my team", I've voted Tory before, perhaps you'd like to get my vote back one day?
I am not a Tory. I say your team, because you have been very vocal in support of Labour over the past few elections.
I stand by that - but as I said, I have voted Tory before and would do so again. I am a younger voter, the kind of voter the Tories used to win. Shall we discuss how to get these voters back?
This is actually a polling miss. The Tories have - surprise surprise - done better than the polls expected and it seems that Labour have had a decline during the campaign that in any normal election would have been catastrophic. They were just so far ahead beforehand that it didn’t matter, and their main opponents shat the bed.
And SNP and Green seem to have underperformed polling. Looks like Lib Dems are probably on par.
So all in all, Plaid excepted, the more left wing the party the more the polls overstate them.
Next election, pollsters, just add 5% on to any right of centre party and you’ll be spot on.
Yes, our bet is going to be very close
Turns out that normalcy bias is called that for a reason. As per our discussion recently, yes a Lab win but a "normal" Lab win.
What's "normal" about over 400 seats?
I was told on here just a few months ago it was actually impossible for Labour to win the 120 seats in one election that would get them to a majority. I was "wrong" to suggest it was entirely possible.
Yeah, but come on. Landscape utterly different post Brexit surely and we're talking FPTP? If Labour have improved their efficiency then that's a big deal.
Away from the election, it is cheering news to see that former Tory MP Craig Mackinlay is to become 'the Bionic Peer'. He will be a brilliant sepsis campaigner.
Lab 36.1% (+3.2) Con 25.8% (-18.9) Ref 17.2% (+15.2) Lib 9.4% (-2.5) Gre 6.1% (+3.4) SNP 2.6%
If that’s the case then Starmer really is a lucky general. 36.1% and a majority over 150?
But it means the lead is soft. A good Tory leader could make a huge dent in that majority in 2029/30.
The devil will be in just what people think constitutes a "good" Tory leader.
TBF, even a mediocre one will do it given the low base. Rishi was very poor.
I wonder if the realistic possibility of a one parliament recovery (albeit with luck and hard work) might focus Tory minds this time?
Yes, 5 points off reform and 3-4 off Labour suddenly the race becomes very tight. 7 or 8 off reform and 3-4 off Labour and it's majority territory again.
Reform up in Labour seats, danger for Labour assuming they're close seats.
Will be interesting to see if any Lab seats - probably in bricks in the red wall that were just held in 2019 - actually flip Reform. If they do, mind you, there won't be many.
But if it's 2019 Labour seats most of them weren't red wall right? It will be those left over in 2019.
It is interesting. But clearly if they're massive Labour majorities it's less meaningful than close fights.
Feels like there still could be some surprises to come. Exit poll probably broadly right but could be quite important what happens in the close races.
I may be wrong, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we see Labour and LDs underperforming it slightly and Tories and SNP overperforming slightly. But it’s just a hunch.
We seem to be saying the Labour lead is soft because the Lib Dems are about to get their best result since 2005 despite being a party that everyone knew was going to put Labour in power
I can see the myths starting to build.
You seem permanently unhappy. Your team have just won. Shouldn't you be at least a bit happy?
I hit 21 off 17, I had a great night.
They aren't "my team", I've voted Tory before, perhaps you'd like to get my vote back one day?
I am not a Tory. I say your team, because you have been very vocal in support of Labour over the past few elections.
I stand by that - but as I said, I have voted Tory before and would do so again. I am a younger voter, the kind of voter the Tories used to win. Shall we discuss how to get these voters back?
Compulsory phone mast installation?
God no, just something on student debt and house building would get a lot of us back!
Comments
So this is what a "save" for the Tory Party looks like - and a "Pyrrhic victory" for Labour?
Boston 48% Con 45% Ref
Pontefract 83% Lab hold, 17% Reform gain
Ashfield - 46% Lab gain, 44% other gain (don't know if this is Ashfield indies)
Rother Valley - 61% Lab gain, 39% reform gain
Hull W - Lab gain 51%, Reform gain 49%
Certainty is a very big thing in science and, I'm sure, in psephology. He's not going to make firm predictions unless very sure, and the reasons given for the uncertainty surrounding some party seat counts appears sound.
I can see the myths starting to build.
https://news.sky.com/story/exit-poll-what-is-the-forecast-election-result-in-my-constituency-13163180
(deletes Andy's name from Xmas card list. Inserts SJC
It might have to be the right if Farage starts to gain momentum in parliament.
They aren't "my team", I've voted Tory before, perhaps you'd like to get my vote back one day?
Or none of the above?
My spreadsheet has the Labour share going down in 160 seats, mostly their own seats.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iFyVLRnJG_7HD1BrN6BQMzU_n2Vl-BjJEIz5H3qq6XA/edit?gid=0#gid=0
Imagine if Starmer were actually inspiring.
Lib Dems gaming our crap voting system very well.
“What! Only 13 seats - after all that money we spent!”
First time was during the administration of George Bush the Elder. (Or early John Major if you prefer)
Says 99% chance Green Gain Bristol Central
LD Gain Sheffield Hallam
Away from the election, it is cheering news to see that former Tory MP Craig Mackinlay is to become 'the Bionic Peer'. He will be a brilliant sepsis campaigner.
It is interesting. But clearly if they're massive Labour majorities it's less meaningful than close fights.
I may be wrong, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we see Labour and LDs underperforming it slightly and Tories and SNP overperforming slightly. But it’s just a hunch.
Maybe something like 400/150/50/20 (SNP) 10 REF…
Is this still a de facto independence referendum? Asking for a friend.