So the tory vote somehow held up more than some expectations, but it can’t be due to reform defectors coming back given their seats.
But Lib Dem on 61 is beyond many expectations so also indicates tactical voting very high.
So this looks like Reform must have taken way more off Labour than thought initially, so rather than all the tory vote in seats going labour, a lot went to reform an let the tories hold on?
Hoyle must be delighted. It looked like he could’ve had a horrible scrabble on his hands working out who the opposition were and how to split the questions. It looks like it will fall very neatly for him. Tories six, LDs two, REF or SNP get the other.
Assuming the exit poll is broadly correct, which MRP was the most accurate?
None of them. Survation was good on Lib Dems, Reform and SNP but woefully short on the Conservative number. Other MRPs, eg YouGov, much better on the Conservatives but had Reform on only a couple of seats.
I should add this stuff is tricky. It only takes a vote share up or down by a single percentage point to make a big difference in seat numbers.
Yes I'd have it around that too, maybe reform a couple of points lower and the LDs a couple higher given the projected seats.
However it does show that the next Tory leader is going to have to shift the party rightwards. Maybe not as far as Braverman but definitely more than they are now which has felt centre left since Theresa May.
Reform may have 13, but I don't think they will take over the tories now. I would much rather a moderate right survives to block the radicals than the tories getting wiped out. The tories will know that there is not tacking to the right. Reform will never stop before the tories become reform, so the tories might as well double down on credible centre right policies for a future millenial voting base
Yes I'd have it around that too, maybe reform a couple of points lower and the LDs a couple higher given the projected seats.
However it does show that the next Tory leader is going to have to shift the party rightwards. Maybe not as far as Braverman but definitely more than they are now which has felt centre left since Theresa May.
In another universe, Rishi doesn't make an absolute balls of the campaign, particularly the start, he doesn't propose nonsense like National Service, meaning no Farage, and we are probably having a total different conversation.
Yes I'd have it around that too, maybe reform a couple of points lower and the LDs a couple higher given the projected seats.
However it does show that the next Tory leader is going to have to shift the party rightwards. Maybe not as far as Braverman but definitely more than they are now which has felt centre left since Theresa May.
Even though there are ~4x as many seats to be taken off the Lib Dems compared to Reform? And ~40 times as many Labour seats? Go right after the ~13?
So the tory vote somehow held up more than some expectations, but it can’t be due to reform defectors coming back given their seats.
But Lib Dem on 61 is beyond many expectations so also indicates tactical voting very high.
So this looks like Reform must have taken way more off Labour than thought initially, so rather than all the tory vote in seats going labour, a lot went to reform an let the tories hold on?
And this is where the concern lands. If REF have grabbed seats and second places in the Red Wall and the Tories in the Shires, an electoral alliance could be formidable.
I also think that polling companies need to have a rethink around how they recruit their panels. I think there's been infiltration in political panels, especially for some of the more well known polling companies.
I also think that polling companies need to have a rethink around how they recruit their panels. I think there's been infiltration in political panels, especially for some of the more well known polling companies.
We seem to continually having this conversation.....
Dave Gorman did a very funny bit a while back about YouGov panel data.
Labour types slightly disappointed with staggeringly large majority; Cons delighted to be alive with potentially worst result in history. Expectations are weird things
I also think that polling companies need to have a rethink around how they recruit their panels. I think there's been infiltration in political panels, especially for some of the more well known polling companies.
We seem to continually having this conversation.....
Reform may have 13, but I don't think they will take over the tories now. I would much rather a moderate right survives to block the radicals than the tories getting wiped out. The tories will know that there is not tacking to the right. Reform will never stop before the tories become reform, so the tories might as well double down on credible centre right policies for a future millenial voting base
If the Tories are on 130, they will not be in hock to Reform, particularly as amongst the Reform MPs there will be some nutters.
Hoyle must be delighted. It looked like he could’ve had a horrible scrabble on his hands working out who the opposition were and how to split the questions. It looks like it will fall very neatly for him. Tories six, LDs two, REF or SNP get the other.
I also think that polling companies need to have a rethink around how they recruit their panels. I think there's been infiltration in political panels, especially for some of the more well known polling companies.
Most of the MRPs taking Con under 100 seats and battling with the Lib-Dems for Official Opposition status are looking ridiculous aren't they?
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I want real results. We cannot be sure the exit poll is right, and we have what, three hours of broadcasters and pundits saying nothing.
But Lib Dem on 61 is beyond many expectations so also indicates tactical voting very high.
So this looks like Reform must have taken way more off Labour than thought initially, so rather than all the tory vote in seats going labour, a lot went to reform an let the tories hold on?
I am far more confident of the Exit Poll than Laura. She is sceptical.
I can apologise for panicking over my 1992 redux fear.
But we'll see.
I should add this stuff is tricky. It only takes a vote share up or down by a single percentage point to make a big difference in seat numbers.
However it does show that the next Tory leader is going to have to shift the party rightwards. Maybe not as far as Braverman but definitely more than they are now which has felt centre left since Theresa May.
It's Hague -> IDS all over again!
And Angus and the Glens too close to call but Tories in lead. Hilarious.
Next Tory leader from Scotland?
I voted Tory.
I will die pissing myself laughing if the SCons end up with more MPs than the SNP.
Dave Gorman did a very funny bit a while back about YouGov panel data.
https://x.com/duncanrobinson/status/1808973581545848903