The exit poll is pretty similar to the 2001 result
- Labour 410 vs 419 - Tories 131 vs 166 - Lib Dems 53 vs 52
I wouldn't be surprised if we actually finished very close to that tomorrow morning. From there it's 1.5 electoral cycles to get back into the lead for the Tories which is about enough time for them to figure out they need to become the party of work and hammer Labour on the worklessness problem that's only going to grow in the next few years.
Reform in double figures would be interesting, Nigel Farage having to appoint a front bench, and that vetting company hoping they wielded out most of the undesirables
This is actually a polling miss. The Tories have - surprise surprise - done better than the polls expected and it seems that Labour have had a decline during the campaign that in any normal election would have been catastrophic. They were just so far ahead beforehand that it didn’t matter, and their main opponents shat the bed.
And SNP and Green seem to have underperformed polling. Looks like Lib Dems are probably on par.
So all in all, Plaid excepted, the more left wing the party the more the polls overstate them.
Next election, pollsters, just add 5% on to any right of centre party and you’ll be spot on.
More likely it’s a modelling miss, rather than a polling miss.
Question remains, whether the miss is more the MRPs, or actually the exit poll? The exit poll only spoke to 20,000-odd voters, and in way way far fewer locations than the MRPs.
This is actually a polling miss. The Tories have - surprise surprise - done better than the polls expected and it seems that Labour have had a decline during the campaign that in any normal election would have been catastrophic. They were just so far ahead beforehand that it didn’t matter, and their main opponents shat the bed.
And SNP and Green seem to have underperformed polling. Looks like Lib Dems are probably on par.
So all in all, Plaid excepted, the more left wing the party the more the polls overstate them.
Now I've come back out from behind the drugs sofa and calmed down, obviously relieved at these numbers but also nervous. Many of those Tory holds must be wafer thin and likely to not come off. 12 Scots Tories seems way out of kilter with expectations
So could the Tories still end up around 100??
I'm worrying again now we're getting some of the projections through
Kerching Lab implied vote share about 38% according to ITV
Four figure winning night for me if they get less than 12,877,000 votes
Which was of course slightly less than TMay got in 2017. Which is all that matters.
Not for my 4 figure win it's not. The fact they fell well short of 12.877m is all that matters for that.
SKS looks like being circa 1 million votes short of Jezza 2017. How unpopular must he be
SKS fans please explain how that could possibly be right.
I will. SKS is more popular than Corbyn. There, I’ve said it. He’s going to be PM. You never mention 2019 do you. You know, the one when your man handed us Boris Fucking Johnson on a plate. You only mention the 2017 performance - where he still lost. SKS has saved the Labour Party from the ruin that that arsehole led it into.
Corbyn was a failure. He lost 2 GEs - the second by a record amount. No one could carry on after that. SKS was then democratically elected leader of the Labour Party and (it appears) has now been democratically elected Prime Minister. On the first attempt. So he’s more successful than Corbyn on every metric.
If Jo (Lab) snaffles it it's probably thanks to Brendan (Con and predicted 3rd) holding back some Reform voters. My guess is he'll run in 2029 for Reform and win here
I thought Ed Davey had the best campaign. Labour’s campaign in the media was poor in my opinion. On the ground obviously quite impressive. .
I thought Labour campaign in the media was fine. It was very disciplined and they weren't trying to sell some grand vision like 1997. It was be disciplined, don't say stupid shit, sound reasonable. And they kept the people most likely to drop a clanger well away from the media.
This is actually a polling miss. The Tories have - surprise surprise - done better than the polls expected and it seems that Labour have had a decline during the campaign that in any normal election would have been catastrophic. They were just so far ahead beforehand that it didn’t matter, and their main opponents shat the bed.
And SNP and Green seem to have underperformed polling. Looks like Lib Dems are probably on par.
So all in all, Plaid excepted, the more left wing the party the more the polls overstate them.
Next election, pollsters, just add 5% on to any right of centre party and you’ll be spot on.
More likely it’s a modelling miss, rather than a polling miss.
Question remains, whether the miss is more the MRPs, or actually the exit poll? The exit poll only spoke to 20,000-odd voters, and in way way far fewer locations than the MRPs.
We have to allow for the exit poll being off by 20 to 30 seats.
This is actually a polling miss. The Tories have - surprise surprise - done better than the polls expected and it seems that Labour have had a decline during the campaign that in any normal election would have been catastrophic. They were just so far ahead beforehand that it didn’t matter, and their main opponents shat the bed.
And SNP and Green seem to have underperformed polling. Looks like Lib Dems are probably on par.
So all in all, Plaid excepted, the more left wing the party the more the polls overstate them.
This is actually a polling miss. The Tories have - surprise surprise - done better than the polls expected and it seems that Labour have had a decline during the campaign that in any normal election would have been catastrophic. They were just so far ahead beforehand that it didn’t matter, and their main opponents shat the bed.
And SNP and Green seem to have underperformed polling. Looks like Lib Dems are probably on par.
So all in all, Plaid excepted, the more left wing the party the more the polls overstate them.
This is actually a polling miss. The Tories have - surprise surprise - done better than the polls expected and it seems that Labour have had a decline during the campaign that in any normal election would have been catastrophic. They were just so far ahead beforehand that it didn’t matter, and their main opponents shat the bed.
And SNP and Green seem to have underperformed polling. Looks like Lib Dems are probably on par.
So all in all, Plaid excepted, the more left wing the party the more the polls overstate them.
It's close - 56% chance to Reform, 44% for Jo (Labour).
Quite amazing given they didn't do any work here
The Reform candidate is older than Biden. If it's a Labour Gain it'll be thanks to BCS hiving off a few Reform voters. I expect Brendan will run here for Reform (He is quite Reformy tbh) next time round and win if that's the case.
Interesting listening to the seat by seat analysis. Looking at this the seats that are the probable target of the labour party planning reforms have been lost from the tories to the lib dems.
Vine on Beeb: almost all the Tory marginals projected to go, except in Scotland.
What an arse. What's his definition of a marginal? Anything under 15k?
To be fair he was going through the Tory seats from most to least vulnerable in blocks of 50. I was describing in real time and elected not to write an essay.
Almost all the first 150 are projected to go, except the Scottish seats which are all held, presumably because of Unionist consolidation and the rollback of the SNP.
This is actually a polling miss. The Tories have - surprise surprise - done better than the polls expected and it seems that Labour have had a decline during the campaign that in any normal election would have been catastrophic. They were just so far ahead beforehand that it didn’t matter, and their main opponents shat the bed.
And SNP and Green seem to have underperformed polling. Looks like Lib Dems are probably on par.
So all in all, Plaid excepted, the more left wing the party the more the polls overstate them.
I thought Ed Davey had the best campaign. Labour’s campaign in the media was poor in my opinion. On the ground obviously quite impressive. .
I thought Labour campaign in the media was fine. It was very disciplined and they weren't trying to sell some grand vision like 1997. It was be disciplined, don't say stupid shit, sound reasonable. And they kept the people most likely to drop a clanger well away from the media.
Very disciplined, but could have risked a bit of excitement. Just a tad. Too apologetic imo.
I know and his summary of how Sunak has screwed things up by failing to address the "demons" in his party unlike Starmer chucking out Corbyn was spot on.
This is actually a polling miss. The Tories have - surprise surprise - done better than the polls expected and it seems that Labour have had a decline during the campaign that in any normal election would have been catastrophic. They were just so far ahead beforehand that it didn’t matter, and their main opponents shat the bed.
And SNP and Green seem to have underperformed polling. Looks like Lib Dems are probably on par.
So all in all, Plaid excepted, the more left wing the party the more the polls overstate them.
Looks like Reform are going to be the Wimbledon (FC) of this Parliament.
I remember seeing them live when they were the crazy gang, they were actually a lot more skillful than they get got credit for. It was often pump it long to the wings, but then they could really play. And if the opposition had the ball, f##king kick'em in the stands.
This is actually a polling miss. The Tories have - surprise surprise - done better than the polls expected and it seems that Labour have had a decline during the campaign that in any normal election would have been catastrophic. They were just so far ahead beforehand that it didn’t matter, and their main opponents shat the bed.
And SNP and Green seem to have underperformed polling. Looks like Lib Dems are probably on par.
So all in all, Plaid excepted, the more left wing the party the more the polls overstate them.
Next election, pollsters, just add 5% on to any right of centre party and you’ll be spot on.
More likely it’s a modelling miss, rather than a polling miss.
Question remains, whether the miss is more the MRPs, or actually the exit poll? The exit poll only spoke to 20,000-odd voters, and in way way far fewer locations than the MRPs.
We have to allow for the exit poll being off by 20 to 30 seats.
Agree. And the Reform projection could be especially variable. I suspect that it principally relies on wins in unpredictable three way marginals.
I thought Ed Davey had the best campaign. Labour’s campaign in the media was poor in my opinion. On the ground obviously quite impressive. .
I thought Labour campaign in the media was fine. It was very disciplined and they weren't trying to sell some grand vision like 1997. It was be disciplined, don't say stupid shit, sound reasonable. And they kept the people most likely to drop a clanger well away from the media.
Very disciplined, but could have risked a bit of excitement. Just a tad. Too apologetic imo.
Its the Gareth Southgate approach to management, but actually winning.
Now the difficult bit. My concern with Labour this time around, I don't think the wider team is very strong once you get past Reeves, Streeting, etc. 1997 there were plenty of people who even if you disagree with politically, you could see they could do a job.
Sadly for us peasants who only use ordinary bookmakers, Ladbrokes have closed the constituency markets. I put a few quid on Reform under 11.5 at evens.
I think that by calling the early election Sunak has actually saved the conservative party. Things were not going to get any better for them had it been put off for another 6 months.
It would merely have given more time for Conservative MPs to disgrace themselves and for the country to get even more annoyed with them.
Ah but not being a football fan, Sunak failed to recognise the reflected glory the Tory Gov't would surely have received by dint of England winning Euro 2024.
This is actually a polling miss. The Tories have - surprise surprise - done better than the polls expected and it seems that Labour have had a decline during the campaign that in any normal election would have been catastrophic. They were just so far ahead beforehand that it didn’t matter, and their main opponents shat the bed.
And SNP and Green seem to have underperformed polling. Looks like Lib Dems are probably on par.
So all in all, Plaid excepted, the more left wing the party the more the polls overstate them.
I thought Ed Davey had the best campaign. Labour’s campaign in the media was poor in my opinion. On the ground obviously quite impressive. .
I thought Labour campaign in the media was fine. It was very disciplined and they weren't trying to sell some grand vision like 1997. It was be disciplined, don't say stupid shit, sound reasonable. And they kept the people most likely to drop a clanger well away from the media.
Very disciplined, but could have risked a bit of excitement. Just a tad. Too apologetic imo.
Its the Gareth Southgate approach to management, but actually winning.
Now the difficult bit.
Could have won a few more votes. A bit more positivity and the Tories got off very lightly.
Comments
Question remains, whether the miss is more the MRPs, or actually the exit poll? The exit poll only spoke to 20,000-odd voters, and in way way far fewer locations than the MRPs.
So could the Tories still end up around 100??
I'm worrying again now we're getting some of the projections through
that arsehole led it into.
Corbyn was a failure. He lost 2 GEs - the second by a record amount. No one could carry on after that. SKS was then democratically elected leader of the Labour Party and (it appears) has now been democratically elected Prime Minister. On the first attempt. So he’s more successful than Corbyn on every metric.
I wonder how Rachel's "shocked" look is coming on.
If Jo (Lab) snaffles it it's probably thanks to Brendan (Con and predicted 3rd) holding back some Reform voters. My guess is he'll run in 2029 for Reform and win here
And Epsom and Ewell. Where I got on at 14/1. And stand to gain over £360.
13 Reform seats will give him a presence.
It will be very tempting for some to look at the Tory vote share, and Reform on circa 20%, and think "if you add them together, you beat Labour."
Farage might not be the *next* Tory leader but he might yet become one.
Realignment unwind?
The English Riviera.
Wor all just chilling.
Not dark yet here. But it's getting there.
Amazing each was 8-1 tbh given how close Brexit got in Barnsley East and Central in 2019.
The MRPs seem reasonably good to me given the size of the change involved.
Typical.
Quite amazing given they didn't do any work here
The Reform candidate is older than Biden. If it's a Labour Gain it'll be thanks to BCS hiving off a few Reform voters. I expect Brendan will run here for Reform (He is quite Reformy tbh) next time round and win if that's the case.
https://news.sky.com/story/exit-poll-what-is-the-forecast-election-result-in-my-constituency-13163180
In a "chuck the buggers out" election, in Scotland the SNP were the buggers....
But I'll believe all those results when they happen...
Almost all the first 150 are projected to go, except the Scottish seats which are all held, presumably because of Unionist consolidation and the rollback of the SNP.
I just find him incredibly irritating. His piece to camera was garbled nonsense. He is no Peter Snow for sure.
@LeftieStats
🗳️ Change in Labour vote share by region [EXIT POLL]
🔴 Scotland +18%
🔴 Midlands +4%
🔴 North +3%
🔴 South +2%
🔴 London -2%
🔴 Wales -2%
Via
@IpsosUK"
https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1808973317493113113
Anyone know why that would be?
Monksfield Posts: 2,542
July 3
My predicted vote shares & seats:
Lab 38 / 410
Con 22 / 134
LD 13 / 53
Ref 14 / 2
Grn 5 / 3
SNP 2 / 22
Other 6 / 26 (18 NI, 4 PC, Speaker, Corbyn, Dewsbury + 1)
They aren't "down at 8%". they are much closer to 18%. So a lot of Reform-sceptics are looking quite foolish
Some people should have listened to me!
Exit poll reaction: Joe Biden is the first world leader to congratulate Keir Starmer
Now the difficult bit. My concern with Labour this time around, I don't think the wider team is very strong once you get past Reeves, Streeting, etc. 1997 there were plenty of people who even if you disagree with politically, you could see they could do a job.