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What’s new pussy cat? – politicalbetting.com

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  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,457
    Leon said:

    Yesterday I was all in for my best bottle of Malbec for tonight.

    But I’ve had a change of mind. I’ve opened a 2015 Pecharmant which I bought at the Chateau in 2019. The Elixir of Chateau les Farcies du Pech. Pecharmant for me is one of France’s more underrated apellations, on the north side of Bergerac.

    A bittersweet one because my good friend who we were with on that occasion passed away last year at a criminally young age. A scientist who led a notable body of research into the ecological consequences of Chernobyl. I shall remember him as I watch these results.

    Ah, sad. Sympathies

    I've gone for an Amarone to acoompany the (sensational) laksa, and for the results - a 2001 Chateau Musar. Yes, 2001

    It feels fitting for the fall of a very overripe governing party. A wine that is probably quite a few years past its peak. Needs to be drunk. End
    Bloody hell, I hope you're going to decant that Chateau Musar first. I mean, it's sediment-y enough at the best of times...
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806

    I spoke to a colleague in the office today. An EU Citizen who has lived in the UK since 2013, paid taxes etc, PhD from a UK university and a specialist in her field. She can’t vote here. She also noted she can no longer vote in her own country Denmark, as she doesn’t pay tax there. This to me is wrong and I sincerely hope Starmer will rectify to allow resident EU citizens to vote at GE after a qualifying period of paying UK tax.

    Why EU citizens?

    Why should a Danish citizen who pays taxes here be treated any different to an American citizen who pays taxes here?
    Sure, I wouldn’t discriminate. If you contribute for long enough you should get a vote.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971

    I spoke to a colleague in the office today. An EU Citizen who has lived in the UK since 2013, paid taxes etc, PhD from a UK university and a specialist in her field. She can’t vote here. She also noted she can no longer vote in her own country Denmark, as she doesn’t pay tax there. This to me is wrong and I sincerely hope Starmer will rectify to allow resident EU citizens to vote at GE after a qualifying period of paying UK tax.

    Fine, but bear in mind they might not all vote Met, as many on the centre-left assume.

    Look at how Europe is voting atm.
    I’m not assuming how they vote. I just think taxation should enable representation. After 5 years perhaps.
    For all people from anywhere who live here? Or specifically for EU citizens and discriminating against others?

    And why not have them get citizenship if they want the vote?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    Nunu5 said:

    PUTIN. PUTIN PUTIN!!!!

    FTFY.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439
    Nunu5 said:

    REFORM. REFORM REFORM!!!!

    Ok, ok. I'll try.
  • ManOfGwentManOfGwent Posts: 92
    If it's close for which party will be His Majesty's loyal opposition, I wonder if the UUP could be in play to take the Tory Whip if the Lib Dems play the same trick with Alliance.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    edited July 4
    An item can't be shared with j.smith@pwc.com because of pwc.com sharing policy. It's not John Smith, that's a name I made up. But someone from pwc does want rights to edit my sheet, though their own internal policies won't let them. Is it one of you :D ?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716

    OK - I am calling it.

    New PM ... Larry the Cat.

    The only true survivor in Downing St

    Would be a definite improvement.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    Twelve minutes. I can't take this.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Sky News panel has Ruth Davidson and Andy Burnham.

    Like it

    Yes, they;re both quite likeable, and charming. Ordinary while being clever and empathetic

    I'd be quite happy if Burnham was about to be PM. Much more than Starmer
    I've got Sky on now.
    Burnham has the charm that Starmer lacks, and has gained gravitas whereas Stamer is just pompous. Also Burnham has a natural optimism, he's like a nothern Blair, Starmer is weirdly dour - like Brown

    It's a damn shame he's not the Labour leader and PM manque
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Channel 4 coverage has started.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    £30 up already. BF just settled. July election date.

    Hurrah.

    Who was that PBer that tipped a July election at 20s back in March?
    Not me. I am still large on January. Then Reform is going to get 25% and I it's all over for me.
    Haven't you predicted Reform down on 10% or below? I suspect you are about to be embarrassed. But feel free to merciless torment me if you're right?
    I have. I've backed them from 14% downwards. As I said earlier, I topped up an hour ago at below 14% and will live with the error of my judgement for some time if, as appears to be the case, they roof it.
    TBF it's very hard to call

    I reckon they will get 15-17%
    14-18% is around 4s (bf). If that's what you think then that's a huge price.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Sky News panel has Ruth Davidson and Andy Burnham.

    Like it

    Yes, they;re both quite likeable, and charming. Ordinary while being clever and empathetic

    I'd be quite happy if Burnham was about to be PM. Much more than Starmer
    Looks at the previews. Thinks, I'm tempted to have a sneaky peek at some point at Hannah Fry's swingometer.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931
    DavidL said:

    My wife has just has just voted. Told voting had been "steady" with just over 400 votes made in the village. I may be wrong but I do think that's down a bit.

    It will be interesting to see whether the Scottish and Northern Irish school holidays reduce turnout compared to England and Wales.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748
    Betfair seems to be moving in the direction of more Tory seats.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631

    Twelve minutes. I can't take this.

    Relax, don't stress.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 964

    Nunu5 said:

    PUTIN. PUTIN PUTIN!!!!

    FTFY.
    😂 Who did that?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706
    Reform still 2.14 for 7+ seats.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    I have a really bad feeling.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    AlsoLei said:

    Leon said:

    Yesterday I was all in for my best bottle of Malbec for tonight.

    But I’ve had a change of mind. I’ve opened a 2015 Pecharmant which I bought at the Chateau in 2019. The Elixir of Chateau les Farcies du Pech. Pecharmant for me is one of France’s more underrated apellations, on the north side of Bergerac.

    A bittersweet one because my good friend who we were with on that occasion passed away last year at a criminally young age. A scientist who led a notable body of research into the ecological consequences of Chernobyl. I shall remember him as I watch these results.

    Ah, sad. Sympathies

    I've gone for an Amarone to acoompany the (sensational) laksa, and for the results - a 2001 Chateau Musar. Yes, 2001

    It feels fitting for the fall of a very overripe governing party. A wine that is probably quite a few years past its peak. Needs to be drunk. End
    Bloody hell, I hope you're going to decant that Chateau Musar first. I mean, it's sediment-y enough at the best of times...
    Just gonna put it through a sieve. lol
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    Right. First Kingfisher Beer opened.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439
    Even Death Rigby showing signs of worry over the EP.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Kay Burley, Beth Riby and Ruth Davidson very chipper. Think that says a lot.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    The exit poll was a surprise in 2010, 2015 and 2017.

    So that's 3 of the last 4 elections where the pollsters were a fair way out.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,523

    I spoke to a colleague in the office today. An EU Citizen who has lived in the UK since 2013, paid taxes etc, PhD from a UK university and a specialist in her field. She can’t vote here. She also noted she can no longer vote in her own country Denmark, as she doesn’t pay tax there. This to me is wrong and I sincerely hope Starmer will rectify to allow resident EU citizens to vote at GE after a qualifying period of paying UK tax.

    Why EU citizens?

    Why should a Danish citizen who pays taxes here be treated any different to an American citizen who pays taxes here?
    Sure, I wouldn’t discriminate. If you contribute for long enough you should get a vote.
    if you want the benefits of being British including voting then become a British citizen
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175

    Even Death Rigby showing signs of worry over the EP.

    Nah, they know what it is and look very happy.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    I'm back after a walk. Any gossip yet? lol.
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 580
    Heathener said:

    Right - my first election on PB, and I know the best value bets are often to be had after the first results have started trickling in.

    Who are we following on here for tips?

    Be careful, okay?

    People try to work / spook the markets. Not on here, or not really, but they sure do elsewhere.

    Pretty safe if you stay on this site.
    Sound advice thank you!

    Have greened nicely in a number of markets and now just playing with house money thankfully - but shall certainly try and keep my wits about me!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662

    I have a really bad feeling.

    SKS landslide whats the bad feeling I thought that's what you were hoping for?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,653
    Channel 4 and Sky News both streaming live on YouTube. Everyone else in the dark ages.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    btw - what time is it?

    Are we waiting for the poll on analogue or digital? It is a matter of seconds and maybe someone can make some money out of it. Who watches/listens to anything on analogue any more.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    The news teams seem to be going with a mix of lefty and liberal Tory pundits. Be a bit embarrassing if Reform do come 2nd in vote share........

    That said 8/1 on the Tories to get over 150 seats feels like it's worth a punt.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    TOPPING said:

    I will go into the Exit Poll showing my naivety by saying I can't believe Reform are going to get a high teen voteshare. How will politics have failed so many people such that they need to vote Reform to express their discontent. The country in such circumstances really would be f****d.

    We know nothing. My agent - best friends with Sarah Vine - has just said she knows nothing. I think the the Exit Poll insiders are keeping it well under wraps, otherwise the risk of betting and fraud is so huge, it makes sense

    If Vine has heard a rumour it is just the usual in-the-place count
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,813
    TENSION mounts
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    See you on the other side everyone…. I’m going to step away for 10 minutes while this place goes into meltdown!
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,989
    I am utterly sick to the pit of my stomach. I might even vom, Casino style.

    Have a horrible feeling about this yet I’m surrounded by partying London mums and dads who are looking forward to a landslide.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,861
    King Arthur theme incoming…
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    I will go into the Exit Poll showing my naivety by saying I can't believe Reform are going to get a high teen voteshare. How will politics have failed so many people such that they need to vote Reform to express their discontent. The country in such circumstances really would be f****d.

    We know nothing. My agent - best friends with Sarah Vine - has just said she knows nothing. I think the the Exit Poll insiders are keeping it well under wraps, otherwise the risk of betting and fraud is so huge, it makes sense

    If Vine has heard a rumour it is just the usual in-the-place count
    Now, there's a surprise!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ...

    I have a really bad feeling.

    SKS landslide whats the bad feeling I thought that's what you were hoping for?
    Tories sneak through and Reform do well.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 480
    The sky news people know the exit poll you can tell... they are dying to tell
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    Kingfisher is nice. BBC prohramme ended. Arthur awaits.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    Over to the Beeb to hear the Word of Curtice.

    Five minutes to go...
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    Labour 444 Tories 111.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806
    I’ve had £15 on the Tories to get at least 100 seats. I’ve backed Labour in Exmouth, LibDems in Tewkesbury and a quid on RochdalePioneers in Aberdeenshire North.

    And a little bet on Labour in Norfolk SW.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439
    FIVE MINUTES
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748

    Labour 444 Tories 111.

    Reform 666
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439

    Labour 444 Tories 111.

    No predictions now please.

    People might confuse with the exit.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    TOPPING said:

    I will go into the Exit Poll showing my naivety by saying I can't believe Reform are going to get a high teen voteshare. How will politics have failed so many people such that they need to vote Reform to express their discontent. The country in such circumstances really would be f****d.

    couple of my sons tell me Reform are really popular amongst their peers.

    These people were Labour supporters in the main previously

    Whether that translates into votes or not .... shrugs .....
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Jesus, the minutes are ticking by slowly.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    TimS said:

    I am utterly sick to the pit of my stomach. I might even vom, Casino style.

    Have a horrible feeling about this yet I’m surrounded by partying London mums and dads who are looking forward to a landslide.

    Why are you so freaked? Lib Dems will do pretty well, Labour will win, you're progressive (barf), what can possibly make you feel queasy?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288

    Labour 444 Tories 111.

    Dickie Bird's grave sets off the seismometers.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052
    A proper theme tune. Old fashioned of me, but I love the old school ones.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Good luck and hope you all get the exit poll you want!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,817
    Oh I love the BBC theme music.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439
    Why are BBC signing this?

    Jesus.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Soak it up, drink it in. The next epoch of British politics begins here.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,861
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    I am utterly sick to the pit of my stomach. I might even vom, Casino style.

    Have a horrible feeling about this yet I’m surrounded by partying London mums and dads who are looking forward to a landslide.

    Why are you so freaked? Lib Dems will do pretty well, Labour will win, you're progressive (barf), what can possibly make you feel queasy?
    A tsunami of Big_Gs
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883
    in Wales we have to turn to BBC2!!
  • jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 790
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Sky News panel has Ruth Davidson and Andy Burnham.

    Like it

    Yes, they;re both quite likeable, and charming. Ordinary while being clever and empathetic

    I'd be quite happy if Burnham was about to be PM. Much more than Starmer
    I've got Sky on now.
    Burnham has the charm that Starmer lacks, and has gained gravitas whereas Stamer is just pompous. Also Burnham has a natural optimism, he's like a nothern Blair, Starmer is weirdly dour - like Brown

    It's a damn shame he's not the Labour leader and PM manque
    He might even surprise on the up side.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Having downed a bottle of soju, I’m about to crash.
    Totally relaxed about whatever the results prove to be in the morning.

    Three mins to exit poll.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    New Year's Eve has nothing on this.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587

    Why are BBC signing this?

    Jesus.

    Watch BBC one not BBC news.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    Do we ever know exactly what point the exit poll is actually finalised relative to being announced?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706
    50/99 and 100/149 tied.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,601
    Congratulations and enjoy the night to all Labour supporters.

    Good luck to Starmer, Reeves, Streeting and the others.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Pro_Rata said:

    Labour 444 Tories 111.

    Dickie Bird's grave sets off the seismometers.
    David Shepherd, not Dickie Bird (who isn’t dead, IIRC).
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    Why are BBC signing this?

    Jesus.

    Because some people can't hear it.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,076
    I'm turning off PB until I see the exit poll on 'live' digital TV which I'm pretty sure is about 30 seconds or so delayed...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,354
    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    I spoke to a colleague in the office today. An EU Citizen who has lived in the UK since 2013, paid taxes etc, PhD from a UK university and a specialist in her field. She can’t vote here. She also noted she can no longer vote in her own country Denmark, as she doesn’t pay tax there. This to me is wrong and I sincerely hope Starmer will rectify to allow resident EU citizens to vote at GE after a qualifying period of paying UK tax.

    Why just EU citizens? Should be anyone who is living here long enough and paying taxes. Not taxation without representation etc.
    Paying taxes is what you do in return for getting services.

    Voting should be open to UK citizens only.
    It has never been.

    Someone just a month off the plane from Rwanda can vote, but not a Dane.
    Which is wrong. There’s no good reason why Commonwealth citizens should have the vote.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439
    Two minutes
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385
    Whiskey poured and ready for 10PM
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,989
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    I am utterly sick to the pit of my stomach. I might even vom, Casino style.

    Have a horrible feeling about this yet I’m surrounded by partying London mums and dads who are looking forward to a landslide.

    Why are you so freaked? Lib Dems will do pretty well, Labour will win, you're progressive (barf), what can possibly make you feel queasy?
    Just too used to shock results. But courage, courage.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,242
    Good luck to all bettors.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    2 minutes to go!
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    It's Curtice!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    FUCKING JEREMY VINE.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,779
    Almost there.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    Sir John Curtice is on TV!!
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 732
    edited July 4
    -

    Do we ever know exactly what point the exit poll is actually finalised relative to being announced?

    10pm figures based on c. 9pm returns. Updated a bit later
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Good luck everyone!
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    Has Curtice had a buzz cut?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052
    Enigmatic smile from Sir John Curtis there.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,563
    Will the exit poll refer to Rishi losing his seat?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439
    Carnyx said:

    Why are BBC signing this?

    Jesus.

    Because some people can't hear it.
    Tough. On that argument you'd always have it.

    I lose 25% of the screen with a berk gesticulating in the foreground.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    How far behind is my BBC Iplayer over NordVPN?

    It says 140 until exit poll
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    ARGHHHH
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,152

    What are GB News showing this evening ?

    Judging by their normal output something about Trans.

    A rig I was on last year showed it in the mess every fecking morning and evening whilst we were eating. In spite of loads of complaints. Apparently the Camp Boss was a devotee. And every fecking day it was the same. Trans this, Trans that. It was relentless. I don't care which side of the debate you are on, GB news managed to piss off everybody.
    They could have had Lee Anderson and Gloria de Piero tonight.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    Here we go!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439
    30 seconds
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385
    Here we go, here we go, here we go.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    All THOSE data
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    One thing I wanted to mention.

    If the Lib Dems plus SNP get more seats than the Tories could they keep them out of opposition?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,653
    BONG
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    Carnyx said:

    Why are BBC signing this?

    Jesus.

    Because some people can't hear it.
    Tough. On that argument you'd always have it.

    I lose 25% of the screen with a berk gesticulating in the foreground.
    Just feel free to be an arsehole. You evidently do.
  • EScrymgeourEScrymgeour Posts: 141
    bong
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited July 4
    My forecasts for each seat. Not exactly the same as the exit poll, but I did predict Lab 407, Con 127, LD 70.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iFyVLRnJG_7HD1BrN6BQMzU_n2Vl-BjJEIz5H3qq6XA/edit?gid=0#gid=0

    Sheet 1: alphabetical.
    Sheet 2: according to anticipated declaration order.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,861
    Yes!!
This discussion has been closed.