P.S. hope everyone has a good Genny Lec regardless of result, I do enjoy the discussion here even if mostly I am not smart enough to contribute to it with any level of insight
Rishi Sunak has given a peerage to his chief of staff Liam Booth-Smith
Oliver Dowden, Julian Smith, Ben Wallace and Alister Jack all get knighthoods
Sunak's other peerages include:
Sir Graham Brady, former chairman of the 1922 committee Chris Grayling, former transport secretary Dame Eleanor Laing, deputy speaker of Commons Craig Mackinley Theresa May Alok Sharma
Starmer has nominated Margaret Beckett, John Cryer, Harriet Harman, Margaret Hodge, Kevan Jones, Barbara Keeley, John Spellar and Rosie Winterton
No undeserving or dodgy bastards in that lot.
*puts on Sheldon voice*
That, FYI, was sarcasm.
The Graham Brady one is dodgy as all get out. That one for the running total of letters?
So as we move into the last hours of the Con government, I can't help but think how disappointing it has been. Love them or loathe them but Thatcher and Blair transformed the UK.
This iteration of the Cons have not achieved that much, if you think about it. For me, the problem has been the rotating cast of PMs and cabinet ministers, which has led to constant change. Great for the political journos but this has led to a loss of focus and long-term planning.
I think it was the purge of half the party post Brexit. A party that can include Hammond, Saj, Gauke, even Rory Stewart is a very different proposition to the current party.
But post election I suspect the Conservatives will go right not centre.
Quick q, but who is the most One Nation Tory likely to be eligible for the upcoming leadership race?
By half the party you mean about eight MPs ?
And are you aware that Saj was appointed Chancellor and then Health Sec by Boris ?
I think there were at least eight (former) cabinet members. From memory the September purge included: Hammond Ken Clarke Letwin David Gauke Justine Caroline noakes Rory Stuart Nick soames
When the Conservatives expel a grandson of Churchill you know the heart and soul has gone.
It’s up there with when the Corbynistas shouted “Tory” at anyone who thought Tony Blair had achieved one or two good things
The conservatives need someone who can drag them back to the centre, as Starmer has with Labour. But I’m not confident.
Nick Soames is a fat, ugly, arrogant, misogynistic, tiny-dicked tit of a man. And a raging snob
It would have helped the Tory/Remainer cause if they hadn't beem such raging snobs, sneering and angry at the disobedient plebs, But they were. And so we have Brexited, and it will not be reversed
Another observation. I have a reasonably average sized friendship group and I don't know (although I can guess in most cases) how any of them are voting. It strikes me as weird the number of people on internet message boards whose friends breathlessly tell them exactly what they are going to plump for in the privacy of the voting booth. Maybe my acquaintances are unusually reticent with me.
I don’t even know how my wife voted.
My other half has voted Labour, she's a life long socialist.
She's not keen on Starmer and she was thinking of voting Green but then she asked why I was a Tory.
I replied 'Because taxes are like your knickers, I always want to see them lower.'
Her reply was unprintable but said she's voting Labour now.
If only you'd been a part of the Tory campaign.
Maybe he's the mole...?
As if I'd ever sabotage a government with David Cameron in it.
P.S. hope everyone has a good Genny Lec regardless of result, I do enjoy the discussion here even if mostly I am not smart enough to contribute to it with any level of insight
This really doesn’t stop most people (myself included).
I spoke to a colleague in the office today. An EU Citizen who has lived in the UK since 2013, paid taxes etc, PhD from a UK university and a specialist in her field. She can’t vote here. She also noted she can no longer vote in her own country Denmark, as she doesn’t pay tax there. This to me is wrong and I sincerely hope Starmer will rectify to allow resident EU citizens to vote at GE after a qualifying period of paying UK tax.
Why just EU citizens? Should be anyone who is living here long enough and paying taxes. Not taxation without representation etc.
Right - my first election on PB, and I know the best value bets are often to be had after the first results have started trickling in.
Who are we following on here for tips?
Certainly not me. I have £5 on NOM at 32. It's currently trading at 70. I can cash out now for minus £3 or wait for the inevitable. Parting is such sweet sorrow, especially when it comes to money.
I spoke to a colleague in the office today. An EU Citizen who has lived in the UK since 2013, paid taxes etc, PhD from a UK university and a specialist in her field. She can’t vote here. She also noted she can no longer vote in her own country Denmark, as she doesn’t pay tax there. This to me is wrong and I sincerely hope Starmer will rectify to allow resident EU citizens to vote at GE after a qualifying period of paying UK tax.
After 11 years she can naturalise as a British citizen. Assuming Denmark allows dual nationality of course. It's also not cheap.
So as we move into the last hours of the Con government, I can't help but think how disappointing it has been. Love them or loathe them but Thatcher and Blair transformed the UK.
This iteration of the Cons have not achieved that much, if you think about it. For me, the problem has been the rotating cast of PMs and cabinet ministers, which has led to constant change. Great for the political journos but this has led to a loss of focus and long-term planning.
I think it was the purge of half the party post Brexit. A party that can include Hammond, Saj, Gauke, even Rory Stewart is a very different proposition to the current party.
But post election I suspect the Conservatives will go right not centre.
Quick q, but who is the most One Nation Tory likely to be eligible for the upcoming leadership race?
By half the party you mean about eight MPs ?
And are you aware that Saj was appointed Chancellor and then Health Sec by Boris ?
I think there were at least eight (former) cabinet members. From memory the September purge included: Hammond Ken Clarke Letwin David Gauke Justine Caroline noakes Rory Stuart Nick soames
When the Conservatives expel a grandson of Churchill you know the heart and soul has gone.
It’s up there with when the Corbynistas shouted “Tory” at anyone who thought Tony Blair had achieved one or two good things
The conservatives need someone who can drag them back to the centre, as Starmer has with Labour. But I’m not confident.
Nick Soames is a fat, ugly, arrogant, misogynistic, tiny-dicked tit of a man. And a raging snob
It would have helped the Tory/Remainer cause if they hadn't beem such raging snobs, sneering and angry at the disobedient plebs, But they were. And so we have Brexited, and it will not be reversed
I have only just realised on my 87th viewing of Terminator that bill Paxton is the blue haired punk at the beginning
I’m one of the few who prefer the first film to the (also excellent) second.
Absolutely with you. Second is over long and I detest the way that woke and liberal Hollywood laughs at second amendmenters but happily makes films suggesting that automatic weapons are fun and cool and virtually harmless
I remember the hour before the GE2017 exit poll when everyone was saying all the signs were Theresa May had won a stonking majority.
I posted mid-evening that a senior Tory had just told a local activist that the best case expectation was c. 330 seats… I was chastised for potentially winding up those with a lot to lose on the spreads…
I spoke to a colleague in the office today. An EU Citizen who has lived in the UK since 2013, paid taxes etc, PhD from a UK university and a specialist in her field. She can’t vote here. She also noted she can no longer vote in her own country Denmark, as she doesn’t pay tax there. This to me is wrong and I sincerely hope Starmer will rectify to allow resident EU citizens to vote at GE after a qualifying period of paying UK tax.
Why just EU citizens? Should be anyone who is living here long enough and paying taxes. Not taxation without representation etc.
Paying taxes is what you do in return for getting services.
I spoke to a colleague in the office today. An EU Citizen who has lived in the UK since 2013, paid taxes etc, PhD from a UK university and a specialist in her field. She can’t vote here. She also noted she can no longer vote in her own country Denmark, as she doesn’t pay tax there. This to me is wrong and I sincerely hope Starmer will rectify to allow resident EU citizens to vote at GE after a qualifying period of paying UK tax.
Why just EU citizens? Should be anyone who is living here long enough and paying taxes. Not taxation without representation etc.
Paying taxes is what you do in return for getting services.
Voting should be open to UK citizens only.
Other countries citizens who have lived here for years should be welcome to apply for citizenship - and if they get it, then they get the vote.
If they don't want citizenship, that's their choice.
The beauty - and the horror - of polling day is that the parties really have next to no more useful information than the rest of us.
Yes, a shit hot polling day computerised operation, with all the tellers numbers entered, can give you some stats about the relative turnout of the various canvass types, and if you’ve fought the patch before an agent can use that data to inform their guess. But those sorts of operations across a whole constituency are not as common as you’d think, and what tends to happen is that around tea time someone runs the figures, then once the evening rush starts it’s far too chaotic and ‘all hands on deck’ for someone to be sitting about pulling in data from dozens of Committee rooms, and running lots of stats. Differential turnouts are more marked, and more useful as a guide, in a local election, anyway. Plus there are enough PVs offline to cloud the picture.
Almost all of what comes out of the parties or sources close to the parties or journalists who’ve spoken to someone who spoke to someone else, until the exit poll and for a while after, will be expectations management, nothing more.
Rishi Sunak has given a peerage to his chief of staff Liam Booth-Smith
Oliver Dowden, Julian Smith, Ben Wallace and Alister Jack all get knighthoods
Sunak's other peerages include:
Sir Graham Brady, former chairman of the 1922 committee Chris Grayling, former transport secretary Dame Eleanor Laing, deputy speaker of Commons Craig Mackinley Theresa May Alok Sharma
Starmer has nominated Margaret Beckett, John Cryer, Harriet Harman, Margaret Hodge, Kevan Jones, Barbara Keeley, John Spellar and Rosie Winterton
A penny for the thoughts of Nadine Dorries' and Nigel Adams' thoughts on Alok Sharma getting the gong. They were the three who weren't allowed to defer Johnson's wheeze of deferring the honour until the election. Those two threw their toys out of the pram. Sharma said not one word.
My wife has just has just voted. Told voting had been "steady" with just over 400 votes made in the village. I may be wrong but I do think that's down a bit.
I spoke to a colleague in the office today. An EU Citizen who has lived in the UK since 2013, paid taxes etc, PhD from a UK university and a specialist in her field. She can’t vote here. She also noted she can no longer vote in her own country Denmark, as she doesn’t pay tax there. This to me is wrong and I sincerely hope Starmer will rectify to allow resident EU citizens to vote at GE after a qualifying period of paying UK tax.
Why just EU citizens? Should be anyone who is living here long enough and paying taxes. Not taxation without representation etc.
Paying taxes is what you do in return for getting services.
Voting should be open to UK citizens only.
Other countries citizens who have lived here for years should be welcome to apply for citizenship - and if they get it, then they get the vote.
If they don't want citizenship, that's their choice.
Exactly so. You make that commitment, you get the vote.
So as we move into the last hours of the Con government, I can't help but think how disappointing it has been. Love them or loathe them but Thatcher and Blair transformed the UK.
This iteration of the Cons have not achieved that much, if you think about it. For me, the problem has been the rotating cast of PMs and cabinet ministers, which has led to constant change. Great for the political journos but this has led to a loss of focus and long-term planning.
I think it was the purge of half the party post Brexit. A party that can include Hammond, Saj, Gauke, even Rory Stewart is a very different proposition to the current party.
But post election I suspect the Conservatives will go right not centre.
Quick q, but who is the most One Nation Tory likely to be eligible for the upcoming leadership race?
Agreed. Putting aside Brexit itself it is the dismal amount of talent among the Brexit wing of the Tory Party that has been the root cause of the debacle that followed on from the 2019 GE.
However the Tories will lurch further to the right after tonight particularly if Reform do as well as many are expecting.
I spoke to a colleague in the office today. An EU Citizen who has lived in the UK since 2013, paid taxes etc, PhD from a UK university and a specialist in her field. She can’t vote here. She also noted she can no longer vote in her own country Denmark, as she doesn’t pay tax there. This to me is wrong and I sincerely hope Starmer will rectify to allow resident EU citizens to vote at GE after a qualifying period of paying UK tax.
After 11 years she can naturalise as a British citizen. Assuming Denmark allows dual nationality of course. It's also not cheap.
I am a danish british dual.... so yes it is permitted
Back in 2015 I was just about recovering from watching the epic Swindon vs Sheff Utd 5-5 classic when the exit poll dropped. An amazing night. If only I had known that it was sowing the seeds of Brexit and all that followed. Cameron wanted and expected another coalition. Would have saved a lot of pain.
I spoke to a colleague in the office today. An EU Citizen who has lived in the UK since 2013, paid taxes etc, PhD from a UK university and a specialist in her field. She can’t vote here. She also noted she can no longer vote in her own country Denmark, as she doesn’t pay tax there. This to me is wrong and I sincerely hope Starmer will rectify to allow resident EU citizens to vote at GE after a qualifying period of paying UK tax.
Everyone should be able to vote in one country or another but I kind of feel like it's Denmark that's wrong here. Hardly any country lets non-nationals vote in national elections. The system everyone goes for is to go by nationality. I'm not nationalistic and I think a better system would be to go by tax residence, but basically the entire world disagrees with me, and voting is done by nationality. This isn't strictly an international agreement, but it's clearly the standard.
Occasionally a country will get a government that cynically decides it will do better if it disfranchizes some of its nationals. For a long time I couldn't vote in British elections because Labour under Blair thought I might vote Conservative. To their credit the Tories finally fixed this. It sounds like the same thing happened in Denmark, and the Danes should fix it.
oh well, thanks Tories. It was an… interesting ride for the past 14 years. I’ll say that much.
Five general elections (including three in four years) and five Prime Ministers (including five in six years and three in one year!!!) as well as three referendums the later of which resulted in Brexit.
Rishi Sunak has given a peerage to his chief of staff Liam Booth-Smith
Oliver Dowden, Julian Smith, Ben Wallace and Alister Jack all get knighthoods
Sunak's other peerages include:
Sir Graham Brady, former chairman of the 1922 committee Chris Grayling, former transport secretary Dame Eleanor Laing, deputy speaker of Commons Craig Mackinley Theresa May Alok Sharma
Starmer has nominated Margaret Beckett, John Cryer, Harriet Harman, Margaret Hodge, Kevan Jones, Barbara Keeley, John Spellar and Rosie Winterton
To praise Sunak before we bury him, that - Grayling aside - is a decent list.
Weird to think that last time we had a General Election, the WEF, Gates and Soros hadn't formally announced the plandemic yet, let alone fitted us with their 5G mind-control chips.
I spoke to a colleague in the office today. An EU Citizen who has lived in the UK since 2013, paid taxes etc, PhD from a UK university and a specialist in her field. She can’t vote here. She also noted she can no longer vote in her own country Denmark, as she doesn’t pay tax there. This to me is wrong and I sincerely hope Starmer will rectify to allow resident EU citizens to vote at GE after a qualifying period of paying UK tax.
Fine, but bear in mind they might not all vote Met, as many on the centre-left assume.
Look at how Europe is voting atm.
I’m not assuming how they vote. I just think taxation should enable representation. After 5 years perhaps.
£30 up already. BF just settled. July election date.
Hurrah.
Who was that PBer that tipped a July election at 20s back in March?
Not me. I am still large on January. Then Reform is going to get 25% and I it's all over for me.
Haven't you predicted Reform down on 10% or below? I suspect you are about to be embarrassed. But feel free to merciless torment me if you're right?
I have. I've backed them from 14% downwards. As I said earlier, I topped up an hour ago at below 14% and will live with the error of my judgement for some time if, as appears to be the case, they roof it.
I spoke to a colleague in the office today. An EU Citizen who has lived in the UK since 2013, paid taxes etc, PhD from a UK university and a specialist in her field. She can’t vote here. She also noted she can no longer vote in her own country Denmark, as she doesn’t pay tax there. This to me is wrong and I sincerely hope Starmer will rectify to allow resident EU citizens to vote at GE after a qualifying period of paying UK tax.
Why just EU citizens? Should be anyone who is living here long enough and paying taxes. Not taxation without representation etc.
Paying taxes is what you do in return for getting services.
Voting should be open to UK citizens only.
I don’t really agree. If you live somewhere, pay taxes, take part in a society, you should have a say.
£30 up already. BF just settled. July election date.
Hurrah.
Who was that PBer that tipped a July election at 20s back in March?
Not me. I am still large on January. Then Reform is going to get 25% and I it's all over for me.
Haven't you predicted Reform down on 10% or below? I suspect you are about to be embarrassed. But feel free to merciless torment me if you're right?
I have. I've backed them from 14% downwards. As I said earlier, I topped up an hour ago at below 14% and will live with the error of my judgement for some time if, as appears to be the case, they roof it.
I spoke to a colleague in the office today. An EU Citizen who has lived in the UK since 2013, paid taxes etc, PhD from a UK university and a specialist in her field. She can’t vote here. She also noted she can no longer vote in her own country Denmark, as she doesn’t pay tax there. This to me is wrong and I sincerely hope Starmer will rectify to allow resident EU citizens to vote at GE after a qualifying period of paying UK tax.
Why just EU citizens? Should be anyone who is living here long enough and paying taxes. Not taxation without representation etc.
Paying taxes is what you do in return for getting services.
Voting should be open to UK citizens only.
It has never been.
Someone just a month off the plane from Rwanda can vote, but not a Dane.
Comments
However, I do tend to make a little bit of money.
It would have helped the Tory/Remainer cause if they hadn't beem such raging snobs, sneering and angry at the disobedient plebs, But they were. And so we have Brexited, and it will not be reversed
People try to work / spook the markets. Not on here, or not really, but they sure do elsewhere.
Pretty safe if you stay on this site.
Anyway it’s just over thirty minutes until a new thread.
- those who like what the exit poll shows and are convinced it's accurate
- those who dislike what the exit poll shows and cast doubt on its accuracy
I'm puzzled . . . because Beeb also reporting that Nigel Farage reportedly voted via postal ballot.
Who was that PBer that tipped a July election at 20s back in March?
Voting should be open to UK citizens only.
However only the Beeb has Sir John Curtice.
May I just send you my congratulations as the person who predicted this conservative collapse so long-ago
You do deserve the credit
If they don't want citizenship, that's their choice.
Yes, a shit hot polling day computerised operation, with all the tellers numbers entered, can give you some stats about the relative turnout of the various canvass types, and if you’ve fought the patch before an agent can use that data to inform their guess. But those sorts of operations across a whole constituency are not as common as you’d think, and what tends to happen is that around tea time someone runs the figures, then once the evening rush starts it’s far too chaotic and ‘all hands on deck’ for someone to be sitting about pulling in data from dozens of Committee rooms, and running lots of stats. Differential turnouts are more marked, and more useful as a guide, in a local election, anyway. Plus there are enough PVs offline to cloud the picture.
Almost all of what comes out of the parties or sources close to the parties or journalists who’ve spoken to someone who spoke to someone else, until the exit poll and for a while after, will be expectations management, nothing more.
Like it
xx
any chance of superimposing a huge countdown clock on the site so that we can track second by second the time to the EP.
However the Tories will lurch further to the right after tonight particularly if Reform do as well as many are expecting.
Love the guy
I'd be quite happy if Burnham was about to be PM. Much more than Starmer
My accounts were getting a bit threadbare.
I almost said I'm off to get my arse spanked.
Real pheasant; just found a pellet.
Occasionally a country will get a government that cynically decides it will do better if it disfranchizes some of its nationals. For a long time I couldn't vote in British elections because Labour under Blair thought I might vote Conservative. To their credit the Tories finally fixed this. It sounds like the same thing happened in Denmark, and the Danes should fix it.
Hmmm...
What a time to have been alive... 😂
https://x.com/BristOliver/status/1808964693769228513
Clever, as they know many of us will gamble the money again.
Claire Hanna [SDLP] expected to win with a huge majority.
North Down still too close to call.
Robin Swann [UUP] have an early lead in South Antrim.
New PM ... Larry the Cat.
The only true survivor in Downing St
I reckon they will get 15-17%
Someone just a month off the plane from Rwanda can vote, but not a Dane.