A nice thought, provided we can forget how betting moved towards Remain and Clinton as close of poll approached. The only conclusion to reach is that whatever is driving these last minute bets, it sure isn’t insight or inside knowledge.
In the twentieth century, just four party leaders who were not Conservatives (Unionists until 1925) or allied to the Conservatives won overall majorities in general elections.
Campbell-Bannerman in 1906. Attlee in 1945 and 1950. Wilson in 1964, 1966 and October 1974 Blair in 1997.
Could Starmer be about to take us 50% of the way to that total in a little over half the time?
You've confused me.
50% - Starmer and Blair winning majorities. A little over half the time - 24 is 53% of 45.
How much of this will get picked up by the Exit Poll? I know that they had data by 2pm. But it surely would be problematic to not continue to sample through the day...?
Sampling DOES take place all day up towards poll closing time.
How much of this will get picked up by the Exit Poll? I know that they had data by 2pm. But it surely would be problematic to not continue to sample through the day...?
They gather data until 10pm, but the first numbers they publish obviously don't include the data from the latter hours, so they update it later, and then update it with the first results too.
Could it be the Lib Dems that are moving, not Reform? Nick Palmer seems to be excepting a Lib Dem victory on his patch, which we was not doing before...
Are there any value Lib Dem constituencies on Betfair Exchange?
I’m stake limited at most bookies… and I think the value on the GB-wide lines isn’t as good?
So as we move into the last hours of the Con government, I can't help but think how disappointing it has been. Love them or loathe them but Thatcher and Blair transformed the UK.
This iteration of the Cons have not achieved that much, if you think about it. For me, the problem has been the rotating cast of PMs and cabinet ministers, which has led to constant change. Great for the political journos but this has led to a loss of focus and long-term planning.
Events have been more powerful than politicians for the last 15 years.
Either severe but short term such as GFC, Covid, Ukraine or long term but inexorable such as globalisation, changing demographics and environment/energy.
How much of this will get picked up by the Exit Poll? I know that they had data by 2pm. But it surely would be problematic to not continue to sample through the day...?
Hard to say, but the exit poll has been reliable before, and *IF* there's a post-work rush I doubt that this is the first time it's happened.
Just to cheer everyone up, here are the borrowing figures for the year-ending March. Basically no change in the last three years with it being around the same level as the 2012-13 period.
I know the economy is larger now, so it's perhaps not quite so pressing to get it down, but ultimately it just means more of our taxes get spent on debt in the future.
In the twentieth century, just four party leaders who were not Conservatives (Unionists until 1925) or allied to the Conservatives won overall majorities in general elections.
Campbell-Bannerman in 1906. Attlee in 1945 and 1950. Wilson in 1964, 1966 and October 1974 Blair in 1997.
Could Starmer be about to take us 50% of the way to that total in a little over half the time?
Just the second leader of the Labour party to win a general election who was born after the first world war.
Colour me naive but since the electoral franchise was widened to include people with jobs hasn't there always been a "post-work surge". I mean, it's logical. I appreciate I am impossibly gauche for observing this but I thought it worth throwing out there.
It'a shame he's a bit gnome-like in appearance, he'd probably have made a better prime minister than any of them - Cameron, Boris. TMay, Truss, Sunak. they could have had Gove all that time and they'd now be looking at a fifth term in office
Another observation. I have a reasonably average sized friendship group and I don't know (although I can guess in most cases) how any of them are voting. It strikes me as weird the number of people on internet message boards whose friends breathlessly tell them exactly what they are going to plump for in the privacy of the voting booth. Maybe my acquaintances are unusually reticent with me.
So as we move into the last hours of the Con government, I can't help but think how disappointing it has been. Love them or loathe them but Thatcher and Blair transformed the UK.
This iteration of the Cons have not achieved that much, if you think about it. For me, the problem has been the rotating cast of PMs and cabinet ministers, which has led to constant change. Great for the political journos but this has led to a loss of focus and long-term planning.
Maybe the last hours of the Conservative Party.
That's an exaggeration. Less than 50 MPs seems highly unlikely. The Liberals didn't disappear after 1922.
It was the beginning of the end, the end coming in the 30s and the resurrection not until 1962 - or in any numbers 1997. If the Tories are happy to wait 75 years, that’s OK with me.
So as we move into the last hours of the Con government, I can't help but think how disappointing it has been. Love them or loathe them but Thatcher and Blair transformed the UK.
This iteration of the Cons have not achieved that much, if you think about it. For me, the problem has been the rotating cast of PMs and cabinet ministers, which has led to constant change. Great for the political journos but this has led to a loss of focus and long-term planning.
I think it was the purge of half the party post Brexit. A party that can include Hammond, Saj, Gauke, even Rory Stewart is a very different proposition to the current party.
But post election I suspect the Conservatives will go right not centre.
Quick q, but who is the most One Nation Tory likely to be eligible for the upcoming leadership race?
By half the party you mean about eight MPs ?
And are you aware that Saj was appointed Chancellor and then Health Sec by Boris ?
Another observation. I have a reasonably average sized friendship group and I don't know (although I can guess in most cases) how any of them are voting. It strikes me as weird the number of people on internet message boards whose friends breathlessly tell them exactly what they are going to plump for in the privacy of the voting booth. Maybe my acquaintances are unusually reticent with me.
No, I’m the same. I never tell anyone and most of my friends won’t. I can guess, but that’s all. But then I was brought up with my parents not telling each or their kids; and to think asking was rude, and so was my wife. We don’t tell each other either.
Word on the street here is a comfortable Labour win in West and East too close to call Labour v Tory. The Green/primary campaign has done well in Ventnor and Ryde but made less impact around the Bay Area. My money is on Tory hold for East with a decent Reform showing.
Another observation. I have a reasonably average sized friendship group and I don't know (although I can guess in most cases) how any of them are voting. It strikes me as weird the number of people on internet message boards whose friends breathlessly tell them exactly what they are going to plump for in the privacy of the voting booth. Maybe my acquaintances are unusually reticent with me.
Yesterday I was all in for my best bottle of Malbec for tonight.
But I’ve had a change of mind. I’ve opened a 2015 Pecharmant which I bought at the Chateau in 2019. The Elixir of Chateau les Farcies du Pech. Pecharmant for me is one of France’s more underrated apellations, on the north side of Bergerac.
A bittersweet one because my good friend who we were with on that occasion passed away last year at a criminally young age. A scientist who led a notable body of research into the ecological consequences of Chernobyl. I shall remember him as I watch these results.
Andy Murray and bro Jamie out of the Men’s Doubles.
I've seen some cringe things in my time by this Andy Murray tribute by the BBC is another level. And having everything done to some sort of choir-set version of Creep by Radiohead? Bizarre.
It’s tough, isn’t it. I have a nice 12-y-o Amontillado in the fridge, and I thought I’d try a small glass after dinner. But it quickly dawned on me that there would be a balance between alcohol and all night endurance, and it went back in the fridge.
If there's any ramping of Tory chances before the exit polls come out, just remember the London Mayorals election, and many of cchq are apparently experienced bettors.....
Colour me naive but since the electoral franchise was widened to include people with jobs hasn't there always been a "post-work surge". I mean, it's logical. I appreciate I am impossibly gauche for observing this but I thought it worth throwing out there.
I voted at lunchtime, when voting at my polling place wasn't "brisk". I was able to do this because I was WFH, which wouldn't have been possible pre-Covid.
So as we move into the last hours of the Con government, I can't help but think how disappointing it has been. Love them or loathe them but Thatcher and Blair transformed the UK.
Could it be the Lib Dems that are moving, not Reform? Nick Palmer seems to be expecting a Lib Dem victory on his patch, which he was not doing before...
Andy Murray and bro Jamie out of the Men’s Doubles.
I've seen some cringe things in my time by this Andy Murray tribute by the BBC is another level. And having everything done to some sort of choir-set version of Creep by Radiohead? Bizarre.
Yep, it’s a bit much. Will seven time grand slam winner Jamie get the same treatment?
Another observation. I have a reasonably average sized friendship group and I don't know (although I can guess in most cases) how any of them are voting. It strikes me as weird the number of people on internet message boards whose friends breathlessly tell them exactly what they are going to plump for in the privacy of the voting booth. Maybe my acquaintances are unusually reticent with me.
I don’t even know how my wife voted.
My other half has voted Labour, she's a life long socialist.
She's not keen on Starmer and she was thinking of voting Green but then she asked why I was a Tory.
I replied 'Because taxes are like your knickers, I always want to see them lower.'
Her reply was unprintable but said she's voting Labour now.
Another observation. I have a reasonably average sized friendship group and I don't know (although I can guess in most cases) how any of them are voting. It strikes me as weird the number of people on internet message boards whose friends breathlessly tell them exactly what they are going to plump for in the privacy of the voting booth. Maybe my acquaintances are unusually reticent with me.
One image of the day: my view on the way to the polling station. @ManchesterKurt may know where I am!
You are abut 300m from my house, go over the bridge, houses on the right after the offices opposite Waverley Rd.
You would probably recognise me.
I don't own a car and walk Dane Rd a lot on my way to Chorlton Golf Club, always wearing shorts, normally a bucket hat or sometimes a Santa Hat, no matter what the time of year.
Fairly sure I know exactly who you are. I remember seeing someone walking past frequently after lockdown eaed pulling a golf trolley. I admired the le gth of walk to Sale GC - then cycled past this person crossing Jackson's Bridge and relaised he must play at Chorlton. Next time I see this person pass I will chance a greeting.
It'a shame he's a bit gnome-like in appearance, he'd probably have made a better prime minister than any of them - Cameron, Boris. TMay, Truss, Sunak. they could have had Gove all that time and they'd now be looking at a fifth term in office
Take Back Control
No You fucking take it!
You touched it last...
Yep, when they knew they’d shat the bed.
Wonder what Scott is going to do with this time now his supply of anti-Tory tweets will likely dry up somewhat
Another observation. I have a reasonably average sized friendship group and I don't know (although I can guess in most cases) how any of them are voting. It strikes me as weird the number of people on internet message boards whose friends breathlessly tell them exactly what they are going to plump for in the privacy of the voting booth. Maybe my acquaintances are unusually reticent with me.
I don’t even know how my wife voted.
My other half has voted Labour, she's a life long socialist.
She's not keen on Starmer and she was thinking of voting Green but then she asked why I was a Tory.
I replied 'Because taxes are like your knickers, I always want to see them lower.'
Her reply was unprintable but said she's voting Labour now.
One image of the day: my view on the way to the polling station. @ManchesterKurt may know where I am!
You are abut 300m from my house, go over the bridge, houses on the right after the offices opposite Waverley Rd.
You would probably recognise me.
I don't own a car and walk Dane Rd a lot on my way to Chorlton Golf Club, always wearing shorts, normally a bucket hat or sometimes a Santa Hat, no matter what the time of year.
Fairly sure I know exactly who you are. I remember seeing someone walking past frequently after lockdown eaed pulling a golf trolley. I admired the le gth of walk to Sale GC - then cycled past this person crossing Jackson's Bridge and relaised he must play at Chorlton. Next time I see this person pass I will chance a greeting.
A mistake, I think, though I'm just extrapolating from Didcot and Wantage. The poll here is generally agreed to have been much higher than recent years, and on paper it's a safe Tory seat. There was zero Tory campaign, near-zero Reform campaign (the area voted heavily against leaving the EU), only a sketchy Labour effort and a LibDem campaign based on leaflets (admittedly in huge numbers) rather than canvassing - many polling stations had no political representatives at all.
I think it's either a big LibDem majority or a last-minute Tory recovery, and on the whole the former seems more likely.
I tend to agree with Casino. So many 'safe' seats are in play now that there's more incentive for people of all sides to come out on vote unless you're in a safe Labour seat.
Andy Murray and bro Jamie out of the Men’s Doubles.
I've seen some cringe things in my time by this Andy Murray tribute by the BBC is another level. And having everything done to some sort of choir-set version of Creep by Radiohead? Bizarre.
He’s got more games scheduled too, both at this Wimbledon and at the Olympics.
It’s tough, isn’t it. I have a nice 12-y-o Amontillado in the fridge, and I thought I’d try a small glass after dinner. But it quickly dawned on me that there would be a balance between alcohol and all night endurance, and it went back in the fridge.
A handful of whiskey miniatures. First one to be opened at 10 PM
One image of the day: my view on the way to the polling station. @ManchesterKurt may know where I am!
You are abut 300m from my house, go over the bridge, houses on the right after the offices opposite Waverley Rd.
You would probably recognise me.
I don't own a car and walk Dane Rd a lot on my way to Chorlton Golf Club, always wearing shorts, normally a bucket hat or sometimes a Santa Hat, no matter what the time of year.
Fairly sure I know exactly who you are. I remember seeing someone walking past frequently after lockdown eaed pulling a golf trolley. I admired the le gth of walk to Sale GC - then cycled past this person crossing Jackson's Bridge and relaised he must play at Chorlton. Next time I see this person pass I will chance a greeting.
Do you think that wise?
Worth a shot. I think based on previous hints I thought the person I have in mind was Kurt - the shorts and bucket hat confirms it. Possibly.
Anyway in the interests of transparency, thought I would share my election bets:
June bets
Boston Reform 2 to 1 £15 Ashfield Reform 9 to 4 £10 South Holland Reform 16 to 1 £10 Amber Valley Reform 33 to 1 £5 Maidenhead LD 5 to 2 £5 Tewkesbury LD 7 to 1 £5 Isle of Wight E Reform 66/1 £2
Feeling good about the LD bets. Think Amber Valley is a loser but the others could have a chance.
July bets following final YouGov MRP
ANME SNP 6 to 5 £5 Great Yarmouth Reform 7 to 4 £5 Maidstone Con 7 to 4 £5 Melksham LD 7 to 4 £5 Mid Leics Lab 4 to 5 £5 N Beds Con 7 to 4 £5 N Dorset LD 12 to 1 £5 NE Hants LD 7 to 1 £5 Runnymede LD 12 to 1 £5 Sutton Coldfield Con 1 to 1 £5 Waveney V Con 13 to 8 £5 Wells LD 4 to 11 £5 Folkstone Reform 9 to 1 £3 Harrow E Con 10 to 3 £3 Newton Abbott Con 6 to 1 £3 Poole Con 9 to 4 £3 Tiverton LD 4 to 5 £3 Gainsborough Con 11 to 10 £2 Romford Con 2 to 1 £2
Comments
A little over half the time - 24 is 53% of 45.
Is that a good idea?
Either severe but short term such as GFC, Covid, Ukraine or long term but inexorable such as globalisation, changing demographics and environment/energy.
As they have been in most countries.
That's the only sign of life from them around here.
I know the economy is larger now, so it's perhaps not quite so pressing to get it down, but ultimately it just means more of our taxes get spent on debt in the future.
......President Biden told Democratic governors that he plans to stop scheduling events after 8 p.m. so he can get more sleep, sources say
This is clearly A Sign. Sell Reform!
You have obviously played before.
LAB 400
CON 150
LD 50
SNP 25
Others 25 so basically a handful for PC GRN REF given 18 NI is included with these
DYOR
But Sky have gone downhill in recent years so who knows?
Or will it be a SHOCK?
"1100 men went into the water..."
That's my election night viewing almost done - off to bed as soon the exit poll is out.
And are you aware that Saj was appointed Chancellor and then Health Sec by Boris ?
But I’ve had a change of mind. I’ve opened a 2015 Pecharmant which I bought at the Chateau in 2019. The Elixir of Chateau les Farcies du Pech. Pecharmant for me is one of France’s more underrated apellations, on the north side of Bergerac.
A bittersweet one because my good friend who we were with on that occasion passed away last year at a criminally young age. A scientist who led a notable body of research into the ecological consequences of Chernobyl. I shall remember him as I watch these results.
https://twitter.com/cjayanetti/status/1808919759553257925
It's pretty obscure TBH
Entirely defensive, and it’s been bad luck, but those are huge accomplishments that took vast energy and resources
Putin says he supports Trump's plan to end the war in Ukraine..
https://x.com/DougAMacgregor/status/1808892745995477389
She's not keen on Starmer and she was thinking of voting Green but then she asked why I was a Tory.
I replied 'Because taxes are like your knickers, I always want to see them lower.'
Her reply was unprintable but said she's voting Labour now.
With a pencil.
Next time I see this person pass I will chance a greeting.
Nearly here.
I'm now thinking that I have enough pressed council slabs on my patio to function as political graves for the entire Generation Sunk cabinet.
Being an Alte Blogger, I am thinking about doing the "Where the Hell is Matt?" dance on every single one. Tread the earth down.
https://youtu.be/zlfKdbWwruY?t=30
Are we filling in ti me or what?
June bets
Boston Reform 2 to 1 £15
Ashfield Reform 9 to 4 £10
South Holland Reform 16 to 1 £10
Amber Valley Reform 33 to 1 £5
Maidenhead LD 5 to 2 £5
Tewkesbury LD 7 to 1 £5
Isle of Wight E Reform 66/1 £2
Feeling good about the LD bets. Think Amber Valley is a loser but the others could have a chance.
July bets following final YouGov MRP
ANME SNP 6 to 5 £5
Great Yarmouth Reform 7 to 4 £5
Maidstone Con 7 to 4 £5
Melksham LD 7 to 4 £5
Mid Leics Lab 4 to 5 £5
N Beds Con 7 to 4 £5
N Dorset LD 12 to 1 £5
NE Hants LD 7 to 1 £5
Runnymede LD 12 to 1 £5
Sutton Coldfield Con 1 to 1 £5
Waveney V Con 13 to 8 £5
Wells LD 4 to 11 £5
Folkstone Reform 9 to 1 £3
Harrow E Con 10 to 3 £3
Newton Abbott Con 6 to 1 £3
Poole Con 9 to 4 £3
Tiverton LD 4 to 5 £3
Gainsborough Con 11 to 10 £2
Romford Con 2 to 1 £2