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What’s new pussy cat? – politicalbetting.com

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  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,665
    edited July 4
    Nigelb said:

    I'd forgotten just how good Jaws was.
    "1100 men went into the water..."

    That's my election night viewing almost done - off to bed as soon the exit poll is out.

    I think that needs updating for tonight.

    365 Tories went into the water. Didn't see the first result for 90 minutes...
  • booksellerbookseller Posts: 507

    Andy Murray and bro Jamie out of the Men’s Doubles.

    I've seen some cringe things in my time by this Andy Murray tribute by the BBC is another level. And having everything done to some sort of choir-set version of Creep by Radiohead? Bizarre.
    He’s got more games scheduled too, both at this Wimbledon and at the Olympics.

    Are we filling in ti me or what?
    Bringing back Sue Barker to do a 'This Is Your Life' was...interesting. But the sheer number of players who turned up was actually quite moving, but fair play. I just felt they were trying to get him to cry though.
  • LloydBanksLloydBanks Posts: 45
    Apologies if this has been asked before, but if the exit poll is done at the same 100 or so seats each election, how would it pick up the predicted Tory losses of more than that number?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    English Sparkling Wine is in the fridge

    Snap!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386
    Farooq said:

    Bottle of red in the fridge. Deep pan Hawaiian in the oven.
    I am ready.

    😳

    You take it with PINEAPPLE?

    AAAAAAAARGHHHHHH!

    Civilisation has just collapsed
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,928

    Apologies if this has been asked before, but if the exit poll is done at the same 100 or so seats each election, how would it pick up the predicted Tory losses of more than that number?

    I don't know how it works exactly, but they must surely extrapolate. If seat A is doing X, a similar seat B will also do X.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    Farooq said:

    Bottle of red in the fridge. Deep pan Hawaiian in the oven.
    I am ready.

    **Sigh***
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,242

    Apologies if this has been asked before, but if the exit poll is done at the same 100 or so seats each election, how would it pick up the predicted Tory losses of more than that number?

    I think the 100 are designed to be representative e.g. if they poll Nottingham N then they can probably use that to infer Nottingham E
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    Apologies if this has been asked before, but if the exit poll is done at the same 100 or so seats each election, how would it pick up the predicted Tory losses of more than that number?

    Because they will be able to see which demographics have moved in which direction, and can extrapolate.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    @johnestevens

    Chris Grayling has been given a peerage by Rishi Sunak, in what could be one of his final acts as PM
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,455

    Farooq said:

    Bottle of red in the fridge. Deep pan Hawaiian in the oven.
    I am ready.

    **Sigh***
    Please ban this sick filth
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,928
    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    Bottle of red in the fridge. Deep pan Hawaiian in the oven.
    I am ready.

    😳

    You take it with PINEAPPLE?

    AAAAAAAARGHHHHHH!

    Civilisation has just collapsed
    I'm ashamed to admit my love for fruit-based pizzas.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821

    No comedy or joke results please.

    Bear in mind some of us have thousands staked on this.

    Good luck!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    @Steven_Swinford
    Breaking:

    Rishi Sunak has given a peerage to his chief of staff Liam Booth-Smith

    Oliver Dowden, Julian Smith, Ben Wallace and Alister Jack all get knighthoods

    Sunak's other peerages include:

    Sir Graham Brady, former chairman of the 1922 committee
    Chris Grayling, former transport secretary
    Dame Eleanor Laing, deputy speaker of Commons
    Craig Mackinley
    Theresa May
    Alok Sharma

    Starmer has nominated Margaret Beckett, John Cryer, Harriet Harman, Margaret Hodge, Kevan Jones, Barbara Keeley, John Spellar and Rosie Winterton
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    GIN1138 said:

    Wonder if BBC corridors will be littered with champagne bottles and party poppers tonight, like in 1997? 😂

    Now, now we don’t know that that’s true.*

    *Although very, very believable at the time!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075

    I've gone to Dishoom for a Ruby Murray and a Kingfisher.

    Better than waiting.

    Hang on - weren't you concerned about arse-spraying mayhem earlier?

    Is that a good idea?
    Sometimes, you've just got to double-down.
    You know the phrase "shit or bust"? It's meant to be a metaphor... :)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,862

    Which broadcaster do we think will have the best coverage?

    BBC for reliability and analysis, Sky for speed, ITV and C4 for conversation
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439
    Maybe it will come out both ends.
  • SteveSSteveS Posts: 182

    SteveS said:

    So as we move into the last hours of the Con government, I can't help but think how disappointing it has been. Love them or loathe them but Thatcher and Blair transformed the UK.

    This iteration of the Cons have not achieved that much, if you think about it. For me, the problem has been the rotating cast of PMs and cabinet ministers, which has led to constant change. Great for the political journos but this has led to a loss of focus and long-term planning.

    I think it was the purge of half the party post Brexit. A party that can include Hammond, Saj, Gauke, even Rory Stewart is a very different proposition to the current party.

    But post election I suspect the Conservatives will go right not centre.

    Quick q, but who is the most One Nation Tory likely to be eligible for the upcoming leadership race?
    By half the party you mean about eight MPs ?

    And are you aware that Saj was appointed Chancellor and then Health Sec by Boris ?
    Yes. He was still screwed over by Boris / Dom



    By half the party you mean about eight MPs ?

    I think there were at least eight (former) cabinet members. From memory the September purge included:
    Hammond
    Ken Clarke
    Letwin
    David Gauke
    Justine
    Caroline noakes
    Rory Stuart
    Nick soames

    When the Conservatives expel a grandson of Churchill you know the heart and soul has gone.

    It’s up there with when the Corbynistas shouted “Tory” at anyone who thought Tony Blair had achieved one or two good things

    The conservatives need someone who can drag them back to the centre, as Starmer has with Labour. But I’m not confident.




  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,078
    Scott_xP said:

    @johnestevens

    Chris Grayling has been given a peerage by Rishi Sunak, in what could be one of his final acts as PM

    Why now? He gest a resignation honours list anyway.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826

    Sean_F said:

    DougSeal said:

    Another observation. I have a reasonably average sized friendship group and I don't know (although I can guess in most cases) how any of them are voting. It strikes me as weird the number of people on internet message boards whose friends breathlessly tell them exactly what they are going to plump for in the privacy of the voting booth. Maybe my acquaintances are unusually reticent with me.

    I don’t even know how my wife voted.
    My other half has voted Labour, she's a life long socialist.

    She's not keen on Starmer and she was thinking of voting Green but then she asked why I was a Tory.

    I replied 'Because taxes are like your knickers, I always want to see them lower.'

    Her reply was unprintable but said she's voting Labour now.
    If only you'd been a part of the Tory campaign.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821

    What are GB News showing this evening ?

    Should be a laugh how they react to the Exit Poll :lol:
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386
    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    Breaking:

    Rishi Sunak has given a peerage to his chief of staff Liam Booth-Smith

    Oliver Dowden, Julian Smith, Ben Wallace and Alister Jack all get knighthoods

    Sunak's other peerages include:

    Sir Graham Brady, former chairman of the 1922 committee
    Chris Grayling, former transport secretary
    Dame Eleanor Laing, deputy speaker of Commons
    Craig Mackinley
    Theresa May
    Alok Sharma

    Starmer has nominated Margaret Beckett, John Cryer, Harriet Harman, Margaret Hodge, Kevan Jones, Barbara Keeley, John Spellar and Rosie Winterton

    No undeserving or dodgy bastards in that lot.

    *puts on Sheldon voice*

    That, FYI, was sarcasm.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,928
    Cicero said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @johnestevens

    Chris Grayling has been given a peerage by Rishi Sunak, in what could be one of his final acts as PM

    Why now? He gest a resignation honours list anyway.
    Looks like this is it, given that Starmer is also nominating.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439
    Sean_F said:

    DougSeal said:

    Another observation. I have a reasonably average sized friendship group and I don't know (although I can guess in most cases) how any of them are voting. It strikes me as weird the number of people on internet message boards whose friends breathlessly tell them exactly what they are going to plump for in the privacy of the voting booth. Maybe my acquaintances are unusually reticent with me.

    I don’t even know how my wife voted.
    We both voted for Damian Hinds.
  • LloydBanksLloydBanks Posts: 45
    Thanks for the answers @rcs1000 @GarethoftheVale2 @RobD . Quite obvious when it's put like that!
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Isn’t pineapple on pizza one of the items on the Hare Psychopathy Checklist (Revised)?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,078
    RobD said:

    Cicero said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @johnestevens

    Chris Grayling has been given a peerage by Rishi Sunak, in what could be one of his final acts as PM

    Why now? He gest a resignation honours list anyway.
    Looks like this is it, given that Starmer is also nominating.
    OK
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,523

    What are GB News showing this evening ?

    Judging by their normal output something about Trans.

    A rig I was on last year showed it in the mess every fecking morning and evening whilst we were eating. In spite of loads of complaints. Apparently the Camp Boss was a devotee. And every fecking day it was the same. Trans this, Trans that. It was relentless. I don't care which side of the debate you are on, GB news managed to piss off everybody.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439

    I hope you make a load of money tonight @Casino_Royale

    Thanks mate
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    What a surprise - it's Putin's plan.

    Putin says he supports Trump's plan to end the war in Ukraine..
    https://x.com/DougAMacgregor/status/1808892745995477389

    Is Trump's plan that Ukraine surrenders?
    Pretty well.
    Though it would be a slow motion surrender.

    It involves giving away (an unspecified amount of) territory and promising not to join NATO / NATO promising not to admit Ukraine.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385

    ONE HOUR TO SAVE THE TORY PARTY!!

    Don’t be stupid, be a smarty. Come and save the Tory Party.
  • KnightOutKnightOut Posts: 142
    Sean_F said:

    DougSeal said:

    Another observation. I have a reasonably average sized friendship group and I don't know (although I can guess in most cases) how any of them are voting. It strikes me as weird the number of people on internet message boards whose friends breathlessly tell them exactly what they are going to plump for in the privacy of the voting booth. Maybe my acquaintances are unusually reticent with me.

    I don’t even know how my wife voted.
    Mine snuck me a cheeky glance at her ballot paper. Tory.

    She always voted Labour before marrying me, so quite possibly one of a very select group that voted Labour 1997 thru 2010 but Tory in 2024.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    Nigelb said:

    What a surprise - it's Putin's plan.

    Putin says he supports Trump's plan to end the war in Ukraine..
    https://x.com/DougAMacgregor/status/1808892745995477389

    He's showing signs of weakness. Another was the offer to turn the gas back on to Europe next year.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    Sean_F said:

    DougSeal said:

    Another observation. I have a reasonably average sized friendship group and I don't know (although I can guess in most cases) how any of them are voting. It strikes me as weird the number of people on internet message boards whose friends breathlessly tell them exactly what they are going to plump for in the privacy of the voting booth. Maybe my acquaintances are unusually reticent with me.

    I don’t even know how my wife voted.
    We both voted for Damian Hinds.
    Decent bloke tbf
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    Omnium said:

    pigeon said:

    So how bad is it for Rishi?

    Like the fall of Singapore.
    That good?
    Singapore or Yorktown?
    I'm surprised, Sunil, that you haven't rolled out your trademark poster one more, and last, time!
    Oh, OK then :lol:


  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,862

    I remember the hour before the GE2017 exit poll when everyone was saying all the signs were Theresa May had won a stonking majority.

    And who could forget the hours before the 2019 exit poll when Leon’s ‘authoritative sources’ had persuaded him that a hung Parliament with Corbyn as PM was coming, and he moved all his investments overseas and into foreign currencies? Just before the £ and UK markets shot up….
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,564

    Sean_F said:

    DougSeal said:

    Another observation. I have a reasonably average sized friendship group and I don't know (although I can guess in most cases) how any of them are voting. It strikes me as weird the number of people on internet message boards whose friends breathlessly tell them exactly what they are going to plump for in the privacy of the voting booth. Maybe my acquaintances are unusually reticent with me.

    I don’t even know how my wife voted.
    We both voted for Damian Hinds.
    YOU know how his wife voted???
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439
    The Eastern European waitress here is as fit as fuck.

    Flirty flirty.

    Can I show you my betslip, love?
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385
    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    One image of the day: my view on the way to the polling station. @ManchesterKurt may know where I am!

    You are abut 300m from my house, go over the bridge, houses on the right after the offices opposite Waverley Rd.

    You would probably recognise me.

    I don't own a car and walk Dane Rd a lot on my way to Chorlton Golf Club, always wearing shorts, normally a bucket hat or sometimes a Santa Hat, no matter what the time of year.
    Fairly sure I know exactly who you are. I remember seeing someone walking past frequently after lockdown eaed pulling a golf trolley. I admired the le gth of walk to Sale GC - then cycled past this person crossing Jackson's Bridge and relaised he must play at Chorlton.
    Next time I see this person pass I will chance a greeting.
    Do you think that wise?
    Somehow I imagined Sgt Wilson from Dads Army saying that.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497
    Heathener said:

    Quick question. Presumably the Exit Poll can’t tell about turnout?

    They can ask all the people who aren't there whether they voted
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Nigelb said:

    I'd forgotten just how good Jaws was.
    "1100 men went into the water..."

    That's my election night viewing almost done - off to bed as soon the exit poll is out.

    I think that needs updating for tonight.

    365 Tories went into the water. Didn't see the first result for 90 minutes...
    ..despite all your poundin’ and your hollerin’ those voters come in and… they rip you to pieces.
  • ManOfGwentManOfGwent Posts: 92
    IanB2 said:

    I remember the hour before the GE2017 exit poll when everyone was saying all the signs were Theresa May had won a stonking majority.

    And who could forget the hours before the 2019 exit poll when Leon’s ‘authoritative sources’ had persuaded him that a hung Parliament with Corbyn as PM was coming, and he moved all his investments overseas and into foreign currencies? Just before the £ and UK markets shot up….
    There was even a rumour that Boris was going to lose his seat.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Message from my lifelong Tory uncle on IoW

    "looking forward to a big win for Sunak tonight"

    Word on the street here is a comfortable Labour win in West and East too close to call Labour v Tory. The Green/primary campaign has done well in Ventnor and Ryde but made less impact around the Bay Area. My money is on Tory hold for East with a decent Reform showing.
    Uncle is in Lake, so in the East.

    Indeed I think all my relatives are. There used to be cousins in Freshwater but they moved to Whitley Bay.
  • SteveSSteveS Posts: 182
    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    Bottle of red in the fridge. Deep pan Hawaiian in the oven.
    I am ready.

    😳

    You take it with PINEAPPLE?

    AAAAAAAARGHHHHHH!

    Civilisation has just collapsed
    I'm ashamed to admit my love for fruit-based pizzas.
    You’re not alone. Most pizza have a tomato sauce.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439
    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    Bottle of red in the fridge. Deep pan Hawaiian in the oven.
    I am ready.

    😳

    You take it with PINEAPPLE?

    AAAAAAAARGHHHHHH!

    Civilisation has just collapsed
    That's a great idea.

    I could play that. Maybe Ramesses the Great.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    IanB2 said:

    I remember the hour before the GE2017 exit poll when everyone was saying all the signs were Theresa May had won a stonking majority.

    And who could forget the hours before the 2019 exit poll when Leon’s ‘authoritative sources’ had persuaded him that a hung Parliament with Corbyn as PM was coming, and he moved all his investments overseas and into foreign currencies? Just before the £ and UK markets shot up….
    The markets will not mind a big Labour majority tbh
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439

    Sean_F said:

    DougSeal said:

    Another observation. I have a reasonably average sized friendship group and I don't know (although I can guess in most cases) how any of them are voting. It strikes me as weird the number of people on internet message boards whose friends breathlessly tell them exactly what they are going to plump for in the privacy of the voting booth. Maybe my acquaintances are unusually reticent with me.

    I don’t even know how my wife voted.
    We both voted for Damian Hinds.
    YOU know how his wife voted???
    Lol!!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Cicero said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @johnestevens

    Chris Grayling has been given a peerage by Rishi Sunak, in what could be one of his final acts as PM

    Why now? He gest a resignation honours list anyway.
    Lord Failing.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    @AllieRenison

    Ipsos chief exec @benatipsos at our @SECNewgateUK election night shindig

    Posted without (further) comment….


  • Clutch_BromptonClutch_Brompton Posts: 737
    Selebian said:

    Poor results for Count Binface there. I think Sunak will hold off the Binface challenge!

    Heretic!
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    edited July 4
    At 9.15 there was an hour long queue at one of the polling stations in Guildford.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439

    Sean_F said:

    DougSeal said:

    Another observation. I have a reasonably average sized friendship group and I don't know (although I can guess in most cases) how any of them are voting. It strikes me as weird the number of people on internet message boards whose friends breathlessly tell them exactly what they are going to plump for in the privacy of the voting booth. Maybe my acquaintances are unusually reticent with me.

    I don’t even know how my wife voted.
    My other half has voted Labour, she's a life long socialist.

    She's not keen on Starmer and she was thinking of voting Green but then she asked why I was a Tory.

    I replied 'Because taxes are like your knickers, I always want to see them lower.'

    Her reply was unprintable but said she's voting Labour now.
    If only you'd been a part of the Tory campaign.
    Maybe he's the mole...?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,078

    I hope you make a load of money tonight @Casino_Royale

    Thanks mate
    Yes, at least then you´ll be smiling through the tears,,, I have been in your situation many times, so you have some sympathy from me. Obviously not enough to want to change the result in the Tories favour, but Good Luck anyway.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806
    I spoke to a colleague in the office today. An EU Citizen who has lived in the UK since 2013, paid taxes etc, PhD from a UK university and a specialist in her field. She can’t vote here. She also noted she can no longer vote in her own country Denmark, as she doesn’t pay tax there. This to me is wrong and I sincerely hope Starmer will rectify to allow resident EU citizens to vote at GE after a qualifying period of paying UK tax.
  • madmacsmadmacs Posts: 92

    Anyway in the interests of transparency, thought I would share my election bets:

    June bets

    Boston Reform 2 to 1 £15
    Ashfield Reform 9 to 4 £10
    South Holland Reform 16 to 1 £10
    Amber Valley Reform 33 to 1 £5
    Maidenhead LD 5 to 2 £5
    Tewkesbury LD 7 to 1 £5
    Isle of Wight E Reform 66/1 £2

    Feeling good about the LD bets. Think Amber Valley is a loser but the others could have a chance.

    July bets following final YouGov MRP

    ANME SNP 6 to 5 £5
    Great Yarmouth Reform 7 to 4 £5
    Maidstone Con 7 to 4 £5
    Melksham LD 7 to 4 £5
    Mid Leics Lab 4 to 5 £5
    N Beds Con 7 to 4 £5
    N Dorset LD 12 to 1 £5
    NE Hants LD 7 to 1 £5
    Runnymede LD 12 to 1 £5
    Sutton Coldfield Con 1 to 1 £5
    Waveney V Con 13 to 8 £5
    Wells LD 4 to 11 £5
    Folkstone Reform 9 to 1 £3
    Harrow E Con 10 to 3 £3
    Newton Abbott Con 6 to 1 £3
    Poole Con 9 to 4 £3
    Tiverton LD 4 to 5 £3
    Gainsborough Con 11 to 10 £2
    Romford Con 2 to 1 £2

    You did well Tewkesbury at 7-1, I got 5-1. Have done some work there for the Lib Dems. Excellent candidate against Tory has never had to do anything in a "safe" seat. As I have posted before Tory just favourite. Depends if enough Labour and Green supporters voted tactically. Will know in around 6-7 hours

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631

    Sean_F said:

    DougSeal said:

    Another observation. I have a reasonably average sized friendship group and I don't know (although I can guess in most cases) how any of them are voting. It strikes me as weird the number of people on internet message boards whose friends breathlessly tell them exactly what they are going to plump for in the privacy of the voting booth. Maybe my acquaintances are unusually reticent with me.

    I don’t even know how my wife voted.
    My other half has voted Labour, she's a life long socialist.

    She's not keen on Starmer and she was thinking of voting Green but then she asked why I was a Tory.

    I replied 'Because taxes are like your knickers, I always want to see them lower.'

    Her reply was unprintable but said she's voting Labour now.
    If only you'd been a part of the Tory campaign.
    Maybe he's the mole...?
    As if I'd ever sabotage a government with David Cameron in it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,862

    rcs1000 said:

    I've sold turnout at 63.25 too.

    A mistake, I think, though I'm just extrapolating from Didcot and Wantage. The poll here is generally agreed to have been much higher than recent years, and on paper it's a safe Tory seat. There was zero Tory campaign, near-zero Reform campaign (the area voted heavily against leaving the EU), only a sketchy Labour effort and a LibDem campaign based on leaflets (admittedly in huge numbers) rather than canvassing - many polling stations had no political representatives at all.

    I think it's either a big LibDem majority or a last-minute Tory recovery, and on the whole the former seems more likely.
    I tend to agree with Casino. So many 'safe' seats are in play now that there's more incentive for people of all sides to come out on vote unless you're in a safe Labour seat.
    That’s a very good point. Turnout tends to be higher in marginals than safe seats, not least because in safe seats no-one really bothers to campaign
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    Bottle of red in the fridge. Deep pan Hawaiian in the oven.
    I am ready.

    😳

    You take it with PINEAPPLE?

    AAAAAAAARGHHHHHH!

    Civilisation has just collapsed
    I'm ashamed to admit my love for fruit-based pizzas.
    Tbf I usually have some tomatoes and olives on mine. Sometimes peppers and chillies too.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Sky News showing an animated Larry the Cat
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439

    Sean_F said:

    DougSeal said:

    Another observation. I have a reasonably average sized friendship group and I don't know (although I can guess in most cases) how any of them are voting. It strikes me as weird the number of people on internet message boards whose friends breathlessly tell them exactly what they are going to plump for in the privacy of the voting booth. Maybe my acquaintances are unusually reticent with me.

    I don’t even know how my wife voted.
    My other half has voted Labour, she's a life long socialist.

    She's not keen on Starmer and she was thinking of voting Green but then she asked why I was a Tory.

    I replied 'Because taxes are like your knickers, I always want to see them lower.'

    Her reply was unprintable but said she's voting Labour now.
    If only you'd been a part of the Tory campaign.
    Maybe he's the mole...?
    As if I'd ever sabotage a government with David Cameron in it.
    Pbuh
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759
    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    I remember the hour before the GE2017 exit poll when everyone was saying all the signs were Theresa May had won a stonking majority.

    And who could forget the hours before the 2019 exit poll when Leon’s ‘authoritative sources’ had persuaded him that a hung Parliament with Corbyn as PM was coming, and he moved all his investments overseas and into foreign currencies? Just before the £ and UK markets shot up….
    The markets will not mind a big Labour majority tbh
    Tories not being the opposition, any big Reform numbers, or (impossible I know) some big Green numbers might unsettle things a little.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,928

    Sky News showing an animated Larry the Cat

    Ominous.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    IanB2 said:

    I remember the hour before the GE2017 exit poll when everyone was saying all the signs were Theresa May had won a stonking majority.

    And who could forget the hours before the 2019 exit poll when Leon’s ‘authoritative sources’ had persuaded him that a hung Parliament with Corbyn as PM was coming, and he moved all his investments overseas and into foreign currencies? Just before the £ and UK markets shot up….
    There was even a rumour that Boris was going to lose his seat.
    I remember that one spreading like wildfire at our firm's Christmas party that night.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,284

    GIN1138 said:

    Wonder if BBC corridors will be littered with champagne bottles and party poppers tonight, like in 1997? 😂

    Now, now we don’t know that that’s true.*

    *Although very, very believable at the time!
    I thought one of the news readers from years ago confirmed it?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    kjh said:

    At 9.15 there was an hour long queue at one of the polling stations in Guildford.

    Must be truly terrifying for the Tories in the Lib Dem crosshairs. The ground game is relentless
  • booksellerbookseller Posts: 507
    This is very funny. I too shall be putting out a carrot and hairbrush for Sir John...

    https://x.com/Nevfountain/status/1808760114121146554
  • EScrymgeourEScrymgeour Posts: 141

    What are GB News showing this evening ?

    Swan Lake
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439

    I spoke to a colleague in the office today. An EU Citizen who has lived in the UK since 2013, paid taxes etc, PhD from a UK university and a specialist in her field. She can’t vote here. She also noted she can no longer vote in her own country Denmark, as she doesn’t pay tax there. This to me is wrong and I sincerely hope Starmer will rectify to allow resident EU citizens to vote at GE after a qualifying period of paying UK tax.

    Fine, but bear in mind they might not all vote Met, as many on the centre-left assume.

    Look at how Europe is voting atm.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    kjh said:

    At 9.15 there was an hour long queue at one of the polling stations in Guildford.

    Wow

    Guildford is going LibDem but that’s amazing
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,894
    edited July 4

    I am in Italy for a conference. Any ideas for a live web broadcast I can follow?

    Lots on YouTube. Search for uk election live or similar. Sky News, LBC, most of Fleet Street, you name it, especially from 10pm our time.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'd forgotten just how good Jaws was.
    "1100 men went into the water..."

    That's my election night viewing almost done - off to bed as soon the exit poll is out.

    I think that needs updating for tonight.

    365 Tories went into the water. Didn't see the first result for 90 minutes...
    ..despite all your poundin’ and your hollerin’ those voters come in and… they rip you to pieces.
    "Here lies the body of Mary Lee; died at the age of a hundred and three. For fifteen years she kept her virginity; not a bad record for this vicinity."
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,250
    SteveS said:

    SteveS said:

    So as we move into the last hours of the Con government, I can't help but think how disappointing it has been. Love them or loathe them but Thatcher and Blair transformed the UK.

    This iteration of the Cons have not achieved that much, if you think about it. For me, the problem has been the rotating cast of PMs and cabinet ministers, which has led to constant change. Great for the political journos but this has led to a loss of focus and long-term planning.

    I think it was the purge of half the party post Brexit. A party that can include Hammond, Saj, Gauke, even Rory Stewart is a very different proposition to the current party.

    But post election I suspect the Conservatives will go right not centre.

    Quick q, but who is the most One Nation Tory likely to be eligible for the upcoming leadership race?
    By half the party you mean about eight MPs ?

    And are you aware that Saj was appointed Chancellor and then Health Sec by Boris ?
    Yes. He was still screwed over by Boris / Dom



    By half the party you mean about eight MPs ?

    I think there were at least eight (former) cabinet members. From memory the September purge included:
    Hammond
    Ken Clarke
    Letwin
    David Gauke
    Justine
    Caroline noakes
    Rory Stuart
    Nick soames

    When the Conservatives expel a grandson of Churchill you know the heart and soul has gone.

    It’s up there with when the Corbynistas shouted “Tory” at anyone who thought Tony Blair had achieved one or two good things

    The conservatives need someone who can drag them back to the centre, as Starmer has with Labour. But I’m not confident.





    Soames rejoined
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Yesterday I was all in for my best bottle of Malbec for tonight.

    But I’ve had a change of mind. I’ve opened a 2015 Pecharmant which I bought at the Chateau in 2019. The Elixir of Chateau les Farcies du Pech. Pecharmant for me is one of France’s more underrated apellations, on the north side of Bergerac.

    A bittersweet one because my good friend who we were with on that occasion passed away last year at a criminally young age. A scientist who led a notable body of research into the ecological consequences of Chernobyl. I shall remember him as I watch these results.

    Ah, sad. Sympathies

    I've gone for an Amarone to acoompany the (sensational) laksa, and for the results - a 2001 Chateau Musar. Yes, 2001

    It feels fitting for the fall of a very overripe governing party. A wine that is probably quite a few years past its peak. Needs to be drunk. End
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,817

    Sky News showing an animated Larry the Cat

    Which is fine but they are also showing Kate Burley which is considerably more tedious.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,250
    RobD said:

    Cicero said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @johnestevens

    Chris Grayling has been given a peerage by Rishi Sunak, in what could be one of his final acts as PM

    Why now? He gest a resignation honours list anyway.
    Looks like this is it, given that Starmer is also nominating.
    Dissolution honours I assume
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,432
    ,,,
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    Breaking:

    Rishi Sunak has given a peerage to his chief of staff Liam Booth-Smith

    Oliver Dowden, Julian Smith, Ben Wallace and Alister Jack all get knighthoods

    Sunak's other peerages include:

    Sir Graham Brady, former chairman of the 1922 committee
    Chris Grayling, former transport secretary
    Dame Eleanor Laing, deputy speaker of Commons
    Craig Mackinley
    Theresa May
    Alok Sharma

    Starmer has nominated Margaret Beckett, John Cryer, Harriet Harman, Margaret Hodge, Kevan Jones, Barbara Keeley, John Spellar and Rosie Winterton

    No undeserving or dodgy bastards in that lot.

    *puts on Sheldon voice*

    That, FYI, was sarcasm.
    The Graham Brady one is dodgy as all get out. That one for the running total of letters?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    IanB2 said:

    Which broadcaster do we think will have the best coverage?

    BBC for reliability and analysis, Sky for speed, ITV and C4 for conversation
    It's the modern version of a woman for babies, a boy for love and a goat for pleasure.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971

    I spoke to a colleague in the office today. An EU Citizen who has lived in the UK since 2013, paid taxes etc, PhD from a UK university and a specialist in her field. She can’t vote here. She also noted she can no longer vote in her own country Denmark, as she doesn’t pay tax there. This to me is wrong and I sincerely hope Starmer will rectify to allow resident EU citizens to vote at GE after a qualifying period of paying UK tax.

    Why EU citizens?

    Why should a Danish citizen who pays taxes here be treated any different to an American citizen who pays taxes here?
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855

    What are GB News showing this evening ?

    Swan Lake on a loop.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    edited July 4

    Venison sausage casserole for tea with a fine Australian Black Stump Shiraz

    I tried to buy sausage rolls from one of the bakeries in town for my Election night snacks, but they only had chickpea rolls, which I duly purchased.

    This is clearly A Sign. Sell Reform!
    Surely if the pork ones have gone and vegan ones are left on the shelf it should be "buy Reform, sell Green"?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    I would like to point out that I called 2019 exactly right.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,813
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Which broadcaster do we think will have the best coverage?

    BBC for reliability and analysis, Sky for speed, ITV and C4 for conversation
    It's the modern version of a woman for babies, a boy for love and a goat for pleasure.
    goat??
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    I have only just realised on my 87th viewing of Terminator that bill Paxton is the blue haired punk at the beginning

    I’m one of the few who prefer the first film to the (also excellent) second.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,078
    DavidL said:

    Sky News showing an animated Larry the Cat

    Which is fine but they are also showing Kate Burley which is considerably more tedious.
    The cat has a higher IQ
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    Ghedebrav said:

    Sean_F said:

    DougSeal said:

    Another observation. I have a reasonably average sized friendship group and I don't know (although I can guess in most cases) how any of them are voting. It strikes me as weird the number of people on internet message boards whose friends breathlessly tell them exactly what they are going to plump for in the privacy of the voting booth. Maybe my acquaintances are unusually reticent with me.

    I don’t even know how my wife voted.
    We both voted for Damian Hinds.
    Decent bloke tbf
    This is one of the curious things. How many Tories can muster a personal vote. It won't affect the overall result but if you like your local Tory MP perhaps hep them stay in.

    As Warren Buffet said, when the tide goes out you see who has been swimming naked.

    What will be the 'Portillo moment'? I suspect Liz Truss.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,432

    Sean_F said:

    DougSeal said:

    Another observation. I have a reasonably average sized friendship group and I don't know (although I can guess in most cases) how any of them are voting. It strikes me as weird the number of people on internet message boards whose friends breathlessly tell them exactly what they are going to plump for in the privacy of the voting booth. Maybe my acquaintances are unusually reticent with me.

    I don’t even know how my wife voted.
    My other half has voted Labour, she's a life long socialist.

    She's not keen on Starmer and she was thinking of voting Green but then she asked why I was a Tory.

    I replied 'Because taxes are like your knickers, I always want to see them lower.'

    Her reply was unprintable but said she's voting Labour now.
    If only you'd been a part of the Tory campaign.
    Maybe he's the mole...?
    As if I'd ever sabotage a government with David Cameron in it.
    That would be gilding the lily.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    rcs1000 said:

    I would like to point out that I called 2019 exactly right.

    Which I grant was all luck. But it did result in a memorable, and wildly off base, retort from @Leon .
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Just over 30 minutes to either the biggest election anti-climax or the greatest polling disaster in opinion polling history.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Which broadcaster do we think will have the best coverage?

    BBC for reliability and analysis, Sky for speed, ITV and C4 for conversation
    It's the modern version of a woman for babies, a boy for love and a goat for pleasure.
    goat??
    You're not Greek, I take it.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,431

    I spoke to a colleague in the office today. An EU Citizen who has lived in the UK since 2013, paid taxes etc, PhD from a UK university and a specialist in her field. She can’t vote here. She also noted she can no longer vote in her own country Denmark, as she doesn’t pay tax there. This to me is wrong and I sincerely hope Starmer will rectify to allow resident EU citizens to vote at GE after a qualifying period of paying UK tax.

    Yet someone who is British but has lived in Thailand for 20 years can vote here.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Looks to me like Sky News are going to be very good tonight. On the ball.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587

    I spoke to a colleague in the office today. An EU Citizen who has lived in the UK since 2013, paid taxes etc, PhD from a UK university and a specialist in her field. She can’t vote here. She also noted she can no longer vote in her own country Denmark, as she doesn’t pay tax there. This to me is wrong and I sincerely hope Starmer will rectify to allow resident EU citizens to vote at GE after a qualifying period of paying UK tax.

    Why only resident EU citizens? Why not any resident tax-payer?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    I am afraid in the end I held my nose and voted SNP.

    I am deeply frustrated with them, they have missed the moment on independence through the last few years and have taken their voters for mugs (yes, I appreciate the irony) and are now in a meltdown of increasing pace and I expect it to be a bad night for them by recent standards (if not actually all that bad by overall historic standards), but hey. Keir's getting his super-ultra-mega-majority without really standing for anything other than being not the Tories and will hopefully at least be boringly competent, so it's a bit of a free hit, the Lib Dems appear to be the comedy extras with Ed Davey's japes, the Conservative kicking should have happened years ago and Reform are just a bit mental.

    All in all though a bit of an uninspiring choice really, and I hope the result of the election means PR in the longer-term rather than FPTP.
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 580
    Right - my first election on PB, and I know the best value bets are often to be had after the first results have started trickling in.

    Who are we following on here for tips?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    Heathener said:

    kjh said:

    At 9.15 there was an hour long queue at one of the polling stations in Guildford.

    Wow

    Guildford is going LibDem but that’s amazing
    It already has a Gails, so yes clear LD gain.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,628
    source close to CCHQ now says they believe Reform will win as many as 15 seats

    https://x.com/christiancalgie/status/1808952989618516365
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    rcs1000 said:

    I would like to point out that I called 2019 exactly right.

    So did I.

    My final call was Tory majority of 40 to 70 plus Scotland.
This discussion has been closed.