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What’s new pussy cat? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,917
edited July 4 in General
imageWhat’s new pussy cat? – politicalbetting.com

It's a @Number10cat landslide. New @IpsosUK data shows 44% favourable towards the Downing Street Don – ratings that a politician would surely find purr-fect.https://t.co/T1oX6ccCDk pic.twitter.com/RJ8VeePkuh

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    What's made of brass and sounds like Tom Jones?

    Trombones.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122
    Robert Colvile
    @rcolvile
    ·
    1h
    As a Tory, I'm approaching tonight in the same spirit as watching 'Titanic'. You know what's going to happen, the drama is seeing who survives.

    https://x.com/rcolvile/status/1808917566095503389
  • Options
    JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    Ask Galloway ...
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122
    Patrick O'Flynn
    @oflynnsocial
    ·
    2h
    Am hearing from several places about a high turnout. This could mean any of 3 things a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out b) enthusiasm for Lab to get the Tories out c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform.
    Take yer pick!

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1808889969286557830
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    edited July 4

    Patrick O'Flynn
    @oflynnsocial
    ·
    2h
    Am hearing from several places about a high turnout. This could mean any of 3 things a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out b) enthusiasm for Lab to get the Tories out c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform.
    Take yer pick!

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1808889969286557830

    I was the first PBer to flag up the increased turnout news.

    I think it is likely to be c) but could be a)
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122

    Patrick O'Flynn
    @oflynnsocial
    ·
    2h
    Am hearing from several places about a high turnout. This could mean any of 3 things a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out b) enthusiasm for Lab to get the Tories out c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform.
    Take yer pick!

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1808889969286557830

    I was the first PBer to flag up the increased turnout news.

    I think it is likely to be c) but could be b)
    As I have posted a few times in last week - I am very worried is actually going to be a.

    Too many times in my life etc etc...
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061

    Patrick O'Flynn
    @oflynnsocial
    ·
    2h
    Am hearing from several places about a high turnout. This could mean any of 3 things a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out b) enthusiasm for Lab to get the Tories out c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform.
    Take yer pick!

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1808889969286557830

    Potentially bad news for those who bet on Starmer scoring fewer votes than 2017.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033

    Patrick O'Flynn
    @oflynnsocial
    ·
    2h
    Am hearing from several places about a high turnout. This could mean any of 3 things a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out b) enthusiasm for Lab to get the Tories out c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform.
    Take yer pick!

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1808889969286557830

    I was the first PBer to flag up the increased turnout news.

    I think it is likely to be c) but could be b)
    As I have posted a few times in last week - I am very worried is actually going to be a.

    Too many times in my life etc etc...
    Fat fingers, I meant to say a) not b)
  • Options
    ManOfGwentManOfGwent Posts: 44

    Patrick O'Flynn
    @oflynnsocial
    ·
    2h
    Am hearing from several places about a high turnout. This could mean any of 3 things a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out b) enthusiasm for Lab to get the Tories out c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform.
    Take yer pick!

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1808889969286557830

    I was the first PBer to flag up the increased turnout news.

    I think it is likely to be c) but could be b)
    C) would fit with my sister and her husband voting for the first time in years.

    Disclaimer, I voted Tory not Reform so not ramping!
  • Options
    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,231
    On cats just mulling the analogy that Sunak in the rump parliamentary party is going to be like a kitten thrown to a pack of XL Bullies. I hope his police protection is not withdrawn when sks goes au palais. I don't fancy his chances mano a mano with Braverman.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    I too have a nasty feeling it could be c)

  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410

    Patrick O'Flynn
    @oflynnsocial
    ·
    2h
    Am hearing from several places about a high turnout. This could mean any of 3 things a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out b) enthusiasm for Lab to get the Tories out c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform.
    Take yer pick!

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1808889969286557830

    I was the first PBer to flag up the increased turnout news.

    I think it is likely to be c) but could be a)
    Differential turnout would be the big spoiler. Could really mess with the polls
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122

    Patrick O'Flynn
    @oflynnsocial
    ·
    2h
    Am hearing from several places about a high turnout. This could mean any of 3 things a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out b) enthusiasm for Lab to get the Tories out c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform.
    Take yer pick!

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1808889969286557830

    I was the first PBer to flag up the increased turnout news.

    I think it is likely to be c) but could be b)
    As I have posted a few times in last week - I am very worried is actually going to be a.

    Too many times in my life etc etc...
    Fat fingers, I meant to say a) not b)
    Oh god, now I'm really worried.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    My bottom is starting to get leaky.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,733

    My bottom is starting to get leaky.

    Please keep us fully apprised of any and all secretions.
  • Options
    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,231

    Patrick O'Flynn
    @oflynnsocial
    ·
    2h
    Am hearing from several places about a high turnout. This could mean any of 3 things a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out b) enthusiasm for Lab to get the Tories out c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform.
    Take yer pick!

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1808889969286557830

    a is based on fear and despondency, b and c on enthusiastic optimism. a for me given how the country is feeling.
  • Options
    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,532

    My bottom is starting to get leaky.

    Relax. The football isn't until Saturday!
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    @Steven_Swinford
    Anatomy of how the Tory campaign imploded from
    @oliver_wright


    * From the off the campaign has been riven by divisions and beset by avoidable mistakes

    * Claims of splits between No 10 team and wider campaign. 'Them and us has really been a problem'

    * Splits from the off - Dowden and other Sunak allies said to have pushed for early election, Isaac Levido opposed. Dowden has denied pushing to go early

    * 'We did an amazing job at keeping the timing of the election secret - but then we didn't capitalise on it because CCHQ were not prepared'

    * Claims CCHQ was 'chaotic' with candidate selections all over the place

    * Sheer volume of unforced errors - Sunak announcing election in rain, visit to Titanic, assumption Farage would not stand, D-Day fisaco...

    * Biggest miscalculation was Farage. 'We tried to ignore Reform for far too long,' senior party source says

    * Supermajority strategy born of desperation rather than design - hope had been polls would narrow. When they didn't the campaign broke glass

    * Tories comprehensively outgunned on spending - Labour built up huge warchest during short campaign

    * Tory ground operation denuded, while many senior figures from past did not take part

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1808934657825910801
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033

    Patrick O'Flynn
    @oflynnsocial
    ·
    2h
    Am hearing from several places about a high turnout. This could mean any of 3 things a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out b) enthusiasm for Lab to get the Tories out c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform.
    Take yer pick!

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1808889969286557830

    I was the first PBer to flag up the increased turnout news.

    I think it is likely to be c) but could be b)
    As I have posted a few times in last week - I am very worried is actually going to be a.

    Too many times in my life etc etc...
    Fat fingers, I meant to say a) not b)
    Oh god, now I'm really worried.
    Don't be.

    At best the Tories get a 1997 style result.

    At worst it is 1931 in reverse.
  • Options
    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,231

    My bottom is starting to get leaky.

    Please keep us fully apprised of any and all secretions.
    And bear in mind that the one photo a day cap has been temporarily lifted.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605

    Patrick O'Flynn
    @oflynnsocial
    ·
    2h
    Am hearing from several places about a high turnout. This could mean any of 3 things a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out b) enthusiasm for Lab to get the Tories out c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform.
    Take yer pick!

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1808889969286557830

    Well that's helpful...
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,048
    Poor results for Count Binface there. I think Sunak will hold off the Binface challenge!
  • Options
    SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,714
    Reading the site, it feels like I have called every bet wrong except Farage winning in Clacton :-(
  • Options
    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,930

    Patrick O'Flynn
    @oflynnsocial
    ·
    2h
    Am hearing from several places about a high turnout. This could mean any of 3 things a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out b) enthusiasm for Lab to get the Tories out c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform.
    Take yer pick!

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1808889969286557830

    I was the first PBer to flag up the increased turnout news.

    I think it is likely to be c) but could be a)
    I think you've misspelt "rumour" as "news" there.

    I had a flutter on 70%+ turnover this morning as I felt 25-1 was decent value. It was 67.3% last time and 68.8% the time before, so it might happen. Is it likely? Not terribly. Rumours about turnout just start circulating at this sort of time and people get over-excited. It'll be thereabouts, and it's of marginal relevance.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033

    My bottom is starting to get leaky.

    Please keep us fully apprised of any and all secretions.
    And bear in mind that the one photo a day cap has been temporarily lifted.
    Only for election related content.

    The other rule is that it is only one photo per post.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,437
    On Topic

    Whoa, whoa
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    SteveS said:

    Well I hope whoever is PM, one of their first acts is to pass a law standardising the names of constituencies. Why is it South West Norfolk, but Barnsley South? Makes it unnecessarily inefficient to find them on the exchange.

    In my brave new world it will South Barnsley and so on.

    The cardinal direction should always be last so all places named for a local area are together in an alphabetical list.

    I think that is generally the case with towns but not rural areas (eg East Wiltshire and South West Wiltshire)

  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    At one school I taught in the Head of English ran GCSE revision classes over Easter.

    Her revision pack front page had one of those 'Keep Calm and Carry On' spoofs on it.

    It read, 'Contrary to previous instructions, now is the time to panic.'

    Patrick O'Flynn
    @oflynnsocial
    ·
    2h
    Am hearing from several places about a high turnout. This could mean any of 3 things a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out b) enthusiasm for Lab to get the Tories out c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform.
    Take yer pick!

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1808889969286557830

    I was the first PBer to flag up the increased turnout news.

    I think it is likely to be c) but could be b)
    As I have posted a few times in last week - I am very worried is actually going to be a.

    Too many times in my life etc etc...
    Fat fingers, I meant to say a) not b)
    Oh god, now I'm really worried.
    Don't be.

    At best the Tories get a 1997 style result.

    At worst it is 1931 in reverse.
  • Options
    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    Mrs Capitano has just headed off to the Co-op and asked if I needed anything for this evening.

    My request was "All the cider".
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    Patrick O'Flynn
    @oflynnsocial
    ·
    2h
    Am hearing from several places about a high turnout. This could mean any of 3 things a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out b) enthusiasm for Lab to get the Tories out c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform.
    Take yer pick!

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1808889969286557830

    I was the first PBer to flag up the increased turnout news.

    I think it is likely to be c) but could be b)
    As I have posted a few times in last week - I am very worried is actually going to be a.

    Too many times in my life etc etc...
    Fat fingers, I meant to say a) not b)
    Oh god, now I'm really worried.
    Don't be.

    At best the Tories get a 1997 style result.

    At worst it is 1931 in reverse.
    Yes, things could be well out and still the Tories would be on landslide loss territory.

    They need the polls to be well out, in their favour, just to get to epic loss!
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,639

    Patrick O'Flynn
    @oflynnsocial
    ·
    2h
    Am hearing from several places about a high turnout. This could mean any of 3 things a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out b) enthusiasm for Lab to get the Tories out c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform.
    Take yer pick!

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1808889969286557830

    It would be funny if it was a Reform surge triggered by Sunak's warning against a Labour supermajority.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605
    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    Anatomy of how the Tory campaign imploded from
    @oliver_wright


    * From the off the campaign has been riven by divisions and beset by avoidable mistakes

    * Claims of splits between No 10 team and wider campaign. 'Them and us has really been a problem'

    * Splits from the off - Dowden and other Sunak allies said to have pushed for early election, Isaac Levido opposed. Dowden has denied pushing to go early

    * 'We did an amazing job at keeping the timing of the election secret - but then we didn't capitalise on it because CCHQ were not prepared'

    * Claims CCHQ was 'chaotic' with candidate selections all over the place

    * Sheer volume of unforced errors - Sunak announcing election in rain, visit to Titanic, assumption Farage would not stand, D-Day fisaco...

    * Biggest miscalculation was Farage. 'We tried to ignore Reform for far too long,' senior party source says

    * Supermajority strategy born of desperation rather than design - hope had been polls would narrow. When they didn't the campaign broke glass

    * Tories comprehensively outgunned on spending - Labour built up huge warchest during short campaign

    * Tory ground operation denuded, while many senior figures from past did not take part

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1808934657825910801

    It was crazy to do it in July. If you were going to go early, go for May and potentially save a couple of hundred councillors at least. Otherwise wait until October or November.

    A July election made no sense at the start and still makes no sense now. 🤷‍♂️
  • Options
    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,231
    edited July 4
    TimS said:

    In completely off topic news and using my non political photo, my parents are staying at our place in the Mâconnais and the Tour came past on the road from Cluny to Cormatin. Mum snapped Mark Cavendish:


    Has she no idea of the etiquette of these occasions? You are meant to cause a 30 bike pile up by standing in the road with a banner saying Hello Tim it's yer mam!

    ETA great photo
  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,962
    I approve of this message
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    edited July 4
    FPT for @Casino_Royale and his revelation that he threw up due to nerves at the 2017 election

    Sympathies! I have never felt that invested in any vote.... apart from Sindyref. That is one vote where I did feel sick to the stomach for several days beforehand. It was like having a nasty potential cancer diagnosis hanging over you. The idea my beloved if often fucked up country might break in two...... UGH

    And the evening of the vote was beyond tense, it was horrible, until the exit poll, where the relief was quasi-orgasmic. The next day I felt free and wonderful

    As @DavidL says: NEVER AGAIN
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,457

    Mrs Capitano has just headed off to the Co-op and asked if I needed anything for this evening.

    My request was "All the cider".

    Shame they don't make white lightning anymore, you'd have had a great night.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,237
    edited July 4
    The only thing I’ll say is that we heard all this anecdata in 2019 about queues at polling stations in London and much was written about the young coming out to drive Corbyn to victory. That proved an… incorrect assumption.

    So treat anything like this with a pinch of salt.

    But hey maybe I’m wrong and we’re seeing an EU ref style earthquake and even PeoplePolling will have undercooked Farage and he’ll pick up 100 seats and deny Labour a majority LOL. I doubt it though.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187

    Patrick O'Flynn
    @oflynnsocial
    ·
    2h
    Am hearing from several places about a high turnout. This could mean any of 3 things a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out b) enthusiasm for Lab to get the Tories out c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform.
    Take yer pick!

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1808889969286557830

    Or it is all three....
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,733
    DavidL said:

    I think it is time to give some serious credit to @Heathener. She saw this coming a long time before anyone else and for a long time was a lonely and somewhat mocked figure. I may well have even expressed some incredulity myself.

    And yet, here we are, just over 2 hours before the exit poll and we are all @Heatheners now.

    Saw what coming? We don't know what is coming!
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,048
    What's the consensus then - BBC? ITV? Sky?

    I've always gone BBC, but caught Laura K on news night yesterday and found her more annoying than I'd remembered, so I'll probably give ITV a go.

    This is a change election! :lol:
  • Options
    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,532
    kle4 said:

    SteveS said:

    Well I hope whoever is PM, one of their first acts is to pass a law standardising the names of constituencies. Why is it South West Norfolk, but Barnsley South? Makes it unnecessarily inefficient to find them on the exchange.

    In my brave new world it will South Barnsley and so on.

    The cardinal direction should always be last so all places named for a local area are together in an alphabetical list.

    I think that is generally the case with towns but not rural areas (eg East Wiltshire and South West Wiltshire)

    As I understand it 'borough' seats typically urban areas have the direction at the end eg Luton South but 'county' seats which are typically rural have it at the beginning eg North Dorset.

    The 'borough'/ 'county' definition affects election expense limits but also has this additional feature
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,437
    Leon said:

    Patrick O'Flynn
    @oflynnsocial
    ·
    2h
    Am hearing from several places about a high turnout. This could mean any of 3 things a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out b) enthusiasm for Lab to get the Tories out c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform.
    Take yer pick!

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1808889969286557830

    Or it is all three....
    Or none of the above as brisk was referring to the TDF finish today
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,545
    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    Anatomy of how the Tory campaign imploded from
    @oliver_wright


    * From the off the campaign has been riven by divisions and beset by avoidable mistakes

    * Claims of splits between No 10 team and wider campaign. 'Them and us has really been a problem'

    * Splits from the off - Dowden and other Sunak allies said to have pushed for early election, Isaac Levido opposed. Dowden has denied pushing to go early

    * 'We did an amazing job at keeping the timing of the election secret - but then we didn't capitalise on it because CCHQ were not prepared'

    * Claims CCHQ was 'chaotic' with candidate selections all over the place

    * Sheer volume of unforced errors - Sunak announcing election in rain, visit to Titanic, assumption Farage would not stand, D-Day fisaco...

    * Biggest miscalculation was Farage. 'We tried to ignore Reform for far too long,' senior party source says

    * Supermajority strategy born of desperation rather than design - hope had been polls would narrow. When they didn't the campaign broke glass

    * Tories comprehensively outgunned on spending - Labour built up huge warchest during short campaign

    * Tory ground operation denuded, while many senior figures from past did not take part

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1808934657825910801

    Yeah, but apart from all that, it was just terrible.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    Anatomy of how the Tory campaign imploded from
    @oliver_wright


    * From the off the campaign has been riven by divisions and beset by avoidable mistakes

    * Claims of splits between No 10 team and wider campaign. 'Them and us has really been a problem'

    * Splits from the off - Dowden and other Sunak allies said to have pushed for early election, Isaac Levido opposed. Dowden has denied pushing to go early

    * 'We did an amazing job at keeping the timing of the election secret - but then we didn't capitalise on it because CCHQ were not prepared'

    * Claims CCHQ was 'chaotic' with candidate selections all over the place

    * Sheer volume of unforced errors - Sunak announcing election in rain, visit to Titanic, assumption Farage would not stand, D-Day fisaco...

    * Biggest miscalculation was Farage. 'We tried to ignore Reform for far too long,' senior party source says

    * Supermajority strategy born of desperation rather than design - hope had been polls would narrow. When they didn't the campaign broke glass

    * Tories comprehensively outgunned on spending - Labour built up huge warchest during short campaign

    * Tory ground operation denuded, while many senior figures from past did not take part

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1808934657825910801

    I think they had no strategy for Reform. We've seen the lines against Labour - no plan but also plan to tax etc - but they seemed worried at first any attack on Reform would only encourage more people to consider them.

    Maybe that made sense, I think most of the remaining Tory vote would prefer to be more like Reform, but after the Faragegasm all they had was to beg people not to do it.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    Anatomy of how the Tory campaign imploded from
    @oliver_wright


    * From the off the campaign has been riven by divisions and beset by avoidable mistakes

    * Claims of splits between No 10 team and wider campaign. 'Them and us has really been a problem'

    * Splits from the off - Dowden and other Sunak allies said to have pushed for early election, Isaac Levido opposed. Dowden has denied pushing to go early

    * 'We did an amazing job at keeping the timing of the election secret - but then we didn't capitalise on it because CCHQ were not prepared'

    * Claims CCHQ was 'chaotic' with candidate selections all over the place

    * Sheer volume of unforced errors - Sunak announcing election in rain, visit to Titanic, assumption Farage would not stand, D-Day fisaco...

    * Biggest miscalculation was Farage. 'We tried to ignore Reform for far too long,' senior party source says

    * Supermajority strategy born of desperation rather than design - hope had been polls would narrow. When they didn't the campaign broke glass

    * Tories comprehensively outgunned on spending - Labour built up huge warchest during short campaign

    * Tory ground operation denuded, while many senior figures from past did not take part

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1808934657825910801

    It was crazy to do it in July. If you were going to go early, go for May and potentially save a couple of hundred councillors at least. Otherwise wait until October or November.

    A July election made no sense at the start and still makes no sense now. 🤷‍♂️
    Yes, inflation briefly hitting target was not a reason to go.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,545

    DavidL said:

    I think it is time to give some serious credit to @Heathener. She saw this coming a long time before anyone else and for a long time was a lonely and somewhat mocked figure. I may well have even expressed some incredulity myself.

    And yet, here we are, just over 2 hours before the exit poll and we are all @Heatheners now.

    Saw what coming? We don't know what is coming!
    Well 99% of people betting on Betfair seem to.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763
    Heathener said:

    I too have a nasty feeling it could be c)

    I don't think it tells us anything in particular.

    This morning we were discussing a low turnout helps the Tories, now we are saying a high turnout helps the Tories.

    It could be a Brexit surge, it could be a Tory surge, but it could be more people than normal want to punish the incumbent.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    DavidL said:

    I think it is time to give some serious credit to @Heathener. She saw this coming a long time before anyone else and for a long time was a lonely and somewhat mocked figure. I may well have even expressed some incredulity myself.

    And yet, here we are, just over 2 hours before the exit poll and we are all @Heatheners now.

    Saw what coming? We don't know what is coming!
    You get to claim credit about calling Sunak right, that's what's coming.
  • Options
    MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,583

    My bottom is starting to get leaky.

    Please keep us fully apprised of any and all secretions.
    And bear in mind that the one photo a day cap has been temporarily lifted.
    Only for election related content.

    The other rule is that it is only one photo per post.
    How many times can I post this?


  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    Selebian said:

    What's the consensus then - BBC? ITV? Sky?

    I've always gone BBC, but caught Laura K on news night yesterday and found her more annoying than I'd remembered, so I'll probably give ITV a go.

    This is a change election! :lol:

    We should have done a PB election night special.

    TSE to host.

    Hyufd doing the polls.

    Nick Palmer doing the analysis.

    RCS doing the tech.

    Me doing the awesome puns.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187

    DavidL said:

    I think it is time to give some serious credit to @Heathener. She saw this coming a long time before anyone else and for a long time was a lonely and somewhat mocked figure. I may well have even expressed some incredulity myself.

    And yet, here we are, just over 2 hours before the exit poll and we are all @Heatheners now.

    Saw what coming? We don't know what is coming!
    i don't wish to take any credit from @Heathener but was she really first in predicting a Tory wipe out? If so, fair enough, and she should take a bow

    My applause would go to the PBer who said "Hartlepool is Peak Tory, all downhill from here", was it @Foxy? Someone else?

    Anyway they were bang on. Kudos
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,372

    Patrick O'Flynn
    @oflynnsocial
    ·
    2h
    Am hearing from several places about a high turnout. This could mean any of 3 things a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out b) enthusiasm for Lab to get the Tories out c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform.
    Take yer pick!

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1808889969286557830

    I was the first PBer to flag up the increased turnout news.

    I think it is likely to be c) but could be b)
    As I have posted a few times in last week - I am very worried is actually going to be a.

    Too many times in my life etc etc...
    Fat fingers, I meant to say a) not b)
    I think a) would be normal turnout. ie Conservatives deciding not to abstain after all. If turnout is high it will be people making a statement when they wouldn't normally vote. b) or c) might be that.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,217

    Heathener said:

    I too have a nasty feeling it could be c)

    I don't think it tells us anything in particular.

    This morning we were discussing a low turnout helps the Tories, now we are saying a high turnout helps the Tories.

    It could be a Brexit surge, it could be a Tory surge, but it could be more people than normal want to punish the incumbent.
    It could be a bit of all of them. I went to the Mail Online site yesterday to look at the comments (someone on here said they were predictive a Reform victory) and was simultaneously struck by my first Labour ad of the campaign.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,457

    My bottom is starting to get leaky.

    Please keep us fully apprised of any and all secretions.
    And bear in mind that the one photo a day cap has been temporarily lifted.
    Only for election related content.

    The other rule is that it is only one photo per post.
    How many times can I post this?


    And what happened to the asteroid moments after this picture was taken? ;)
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399
    Selebian said:

    What's the consensus then - BBC? ITV? Sky?

    I've always gone BBC, but caught Laura K on news night yesterday and found her more annoying than I'd remembered, so I'll probably give ITV a go.

    This is a change election! :lol:

    For the exit poll? ITV. Then straight into the car to head to the count, and will be on LBC all night.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    TWO HOURS TO SAVE THE TORY PARTY!!!

    :lol:
  • Options
    maxhmaxh Posts: 1,025

    Patrick O'Flynn
    @oflynnsocial
    ·
    2h
    Am hearing from several places about a high turnout. This could mean any of 3 things a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out b) enthusiasm for Lab to get the Tories out c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform.
    Take yer pick!

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1808889969286557830

    I was the first PBer to flag up the increased turnout news.

    I think it is likely to be c) but could be a)
    Also (d) good for democracy. Low turnout is depressing.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    DavidL said:

    I think it is time to give some serious credit to @Heathener. She saw this coming a long time before anyone else and for a long time was a lonely and somewhat mocked figure. I may well have even expressed some incredulity myself.

    And yet, here we are, just over 2 hours before the exit poll and we are all @Heatheners now.

    Thanks David.

    Much appreciated.

    xx
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,568

    On Topic

    Whoa, whoa

    That’s English for ‘stop a horse’
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    OK I'm getting my first hint of collywobbles
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,708

    Selebian said:

    What's the consensus then - BBC? ITV? Sky?

    I've always gone BBC, but caught Laura K on news night yesterday and found her more annoying than I'd remembered, so I'll probably give ITV a go.

    This is a change election! :lol:

    For the exit poll? ITV. Then straight into the car to head to the count, and will be on LBC all night.
    LBC?!
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    SteveS said:

    kle4 said:

    SteveS said:

    Well I hope whoever is PM, one of their first acts is to pass a law standardising the names of constituencies. Why is it South West Norfolk, but Barnsley South? Makes it unnecessarily inefficient to find them on the exchange.

    In my brave new world it will South Barnsley and so on.

    The cardinal direction should always be last so all places named for a local area are together in an alphabetical list.

    I think that is generally the case with towns but not rural areas (eg East Wiltshire and South West Wiltshire)
    I would agree with that, except that Norfolk South West doesn’t scan as well. Norfolk south scans, as does Norfolk west, but not Norfolk South West. Well not to my ear anyway.

    I would prefer your suggestion over the status quo though.


    People already put the county name first unofficially much of the time.

    So just make it official so they look better in a spreadsheet, and people can officially say it differently.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,489
    Its quite unusual for a party to offer nothing other than not being Tory. Under the circumstances that should be enough but I can't think of a single thing to look forward to with a Starmer administration other than the above.

    I was hoping to get closer to Europe but now that it involves waiting for Starmer to expire that seems a little mean spirited
  • Options
    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,873
    Leon said:

    OK I'm getting my first hint of collywobbles

    Second Gin?
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    Selebian said:

    What's the consensus then - BBC? ITV? Sky?

    I've always gone BBC, but caught Laura K on news night yesterday and found her more annoying than I'd remembered, so I'll probably give ITV a go.

    This is a change election! :lol:

    GBeebies, just for a laugh? :lol:
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,733
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    I think it is time to give some serious credit to @Heathener. She saw this coming a long time before anyone else and for a long time was a lonely and somewhat mocked figure. I may well have even expressed some incredulity myself.

    And yet, here we are, just over 2 hours before the exit poll and we are all @Heatheners now.

    Saw what coming? We don't know what is coming!
    You get to claim credit about calling Sunak right, that's what's coming.
    Nobody could ever call Sunak 'right'.

    *Is that my coat?
  • Options
    mickydroymickydroy Posts: 314
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    I think it is time to give some serious credit to @Heathener. She saw this coming a long time before anyone else and for a long time was a lonely and somewhat mocked figure. I may well have even expressed some incredulity myself.

    And yet, here we are, just over 2 hours before the exit poll and we are all @Heatheners now.

    Saw what coming? We don't know what is coming!
    You get to claim credit about calling Sunak right, that's what's coming.
    It's Heathener wot won it
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399
    Yep. I like LBC. Andrew Marr, Jon Sopel, Lewis Goodall, Sheilagh Fogarty
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763
    edited July 4
    If it is a Reform surge this evening let's hope it doesn't translate into a bucket load of seats.
  • Options
    ChristopherChristopher Posts: 91
    Anyone wanting to bet on tories over 150 seats nows the time to get a massive return. Markets now show less than 50 seats almost as likely.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,237
    I think I will stay up for the exit poll. Then get up at 6 or so and eagerly digest the news. I can’t do an all nighter. But the more I think about it trying to sleep when I know the poll is out will be a bit too hard.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,048
    Carnyx said:

    Selebian said:

    What's the consensus then - BBC? ITV? Sky?

    I've always gone BBC, but caught Laura K on news night yesterday and found her more annoying than I'd remembered, so I'll probably give ITV a go.

    This is a change election! :lol:

    For the exit poll? ITV. Then straight into the car to head to the count, and will be on LBC all night.
    LBC?!
    Can only mean lager, brandy and coke (of either variety).

    The other LBC is too crazy to countenance
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,568
    Leon said:

    Patrick O'Flynn
    @oflynnsocial
    ·
    2h
    Am hearing from several places about a high turnout. This could mean any of 3 things a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out b) enthusiasm for Lab to get the Tories out c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform.
    Take yer pick!

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1808889969286557830

    Or it is all three....
    Reform certainly seemed to improve their poll ratings in the final week as labour fell below 40% and the Tories fell a little further too.

    I’m not convinced of an surge in voter numbers from anecdotal comments based on ‘someone said this’.

    We shall see.
  • Options
    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,193
    Bad news for knappers of flint-based marital aids.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c725wr19lz1o
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 12,368
    Evening all.
    Frustratingly, I've been on a team away day all day so have missed the chat on one of the pb highlights of the year.
    Anyway, on my way home now. May call in to vote on the way. Still thinking SDP.

    On Casino's story: I felt bad before 2017, but wasn't worried about Corbyn being in power. But 2019 was the worst I've ever felt - and most relieved I've ever felt - in my life, about politics or anything else.

    Not feeling like that now. Obviously Starmer will win. He's far from my cup of tea. But he's not a nutter.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,545
    Leon said:

    OK I'm getting my first hint of collywobbles

    What are you worrying about? Its nothing worse than having to pay over more than half your earnings for the rest of your working life whilst seeing all this woke stuff you get wound up implemented with no opposition worthy of the name. But hey, you voted reform. Good luck.
  • Options
    ChristopherChristopher Posts: 91
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Patrick O'Flynn
    @oflynnsocial
    ·
    2h
    Am hearing from several places about a high turnout. This could mean any of 3 things a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out b) enthusiasm for Lab to get the Tories out c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform.
    Take yer pick!

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1808889969286557830

    Or it is all three....
    Reform certainly seemed to improve their poll ratings in the final week as labour fell below 40% and the Tories fell a little further too.

    I’m not convinced of an surge in voter numbers from anecdotal comments based on ‘someone said this’.

    We shall see.
    Reform 7 or more seats now massive favourite on betfair.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,048
    ydoethur said:

    Selebian said:

    What's the consensus then - BBC? ITV? Sky?

    I've always gone BBC, but caught Laura K on news night yesterday and found her more annoying than I'd remembered, so I'll probably give ITV a go.

    This is a change election! :lol:

    We should have done a PB election night special.

    TSE to host.

    Hyufd doing the polls.

    Nick Palmer doing the analysis.

    RCS doing the tech.

    Me doing the awesome puns.
    Leon the roving reporter, clearly a bit sozzled and trying to be down with the youth at whatever gathering he's reporting from
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 12,368
    Selebian said:

    What's the consensus then - BBC? ITV? Sky?

    I've always gone BBC, but caught Laura K on news night yesterday and found her more annoying than I'd remembered, so I'll probably give ITV a go.

    This is a change election! :lol:

    ITV were really good last time, aside from Peston.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,237
    Cookie said:

    Evening all.
    Frustratingly, I've been on a team away day all day so have missed the chat on one of the pb highlights of the year.
    Anyway, on my way home now. May call in to vote on the way. Still thinking SDP.

    On Casino's story: I felt bad before 2017, but wasn't worried about Corbyn being in power. But 2019 was the worst I've ever felt - and most relieved I've ever felt - in my life, about politics or anything else.

    Not feeling like that now. Obviously Starmer will win. He's far from my cup of tea. But he's not a nutter.

    Yes 2019 was an awful wait. Because all of us who didn’t want a Corbyn government had been scarred by 2017.
  • Options
    MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,583
    RobD said:

    My bottom is starting to get leaky.

    Please keep us fully apprised of any and all secretions.
    And bear in mind that the one photo a day cap has been temporarily lifted.
    Only for election related content.

    The other rule is that it is only one photo per post.
    How many times can I post this?


    And what happened to the asteroid moments after this picture was taken? ;)
    Few quick U turns and a trip to the palace?
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399

    Anyone wanting to bet on tories over 150 seats nows the time to get a massive return. Markets now show less than 50 seats almost as likely.

    Turnout reported as slow earlier - and certainly so on the ground in ANME.

    Now reported as brisk after work.

    Soooooo. Are all the Tories coming home at the last minute?

    Or. This is the beat them to death election. The tactical vote monster has been unleashed. And in chunks of the country the fUKers are going for it.

    I have asked my Teesside friends if they have been into any Stainsby Hill (Thornaby) polling stations to see what turnout is like. We knew the 2019 election was a Borisgasm by the mega turnout in these locations followed by sampling those boxes and seeing Tory Tory Tory.

    If there is high turnout again its RefUK RefUK RefUK
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Patrick O'Flynn
    @oflynnsocial
    ·
    2h
    Am hearing from several places about a high turnout. This could mean any of 3 things a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out b) enthusiasm for Lab to get the Tories out c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform.
    Take yer pick!

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1808889969286557830

    Or it is all three....
    Reform certainly seemed to improve their poll ratings in the final week as labour fell below 40% and the Tories fell a little further too.

    I’m not convinced of an surge in voter numbers from anecdotal comments based on ‘someone said this’.

    We shall see.
    Reform 7 or more seats now massive favourite on betfair.
    That's a clear lay for me. Reform aren't a party, they're a one man ego trip with the organisational skills of a drunk brontosaurus.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,021

    Yep. I like LBC. Andrew Marr, Jon Sopel, Lewis Goodall, Sheilagh Fogarty

    I always find myself agreeing with Tom Swarbrick tbh.
  • Options
    OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,588
    Cookie said:

    Selebian said:

    What's the consensus then - BBC? ITV? Sky?

    I've always gone BBC, but caught Laura K on news night yesterday and found her more annoying than I'd remembered, so I'll probably give ITV a go.

    This is a change election! :lol:

    ITV were really good last time, aside from Peston.
    I'm going to bounce between ITV and C4. Until Osborne annoys me too much then I'll put the FT liveblog on and play video games for a while.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,217

    kle4 said:

    SteveS said:

    kle4 said:

    SteveS said:

    Well I hope whoever is PM, one of their first acts is to pass a law standardising the names of constituencies. Why is it South West Norfolk, but Barnsley South? Makes it unnecessarily inefficient to find them on the exchange.

    In my brave new world it will South Barnsley and so on.

    The cardinal direction should always be last so all places named for a local area are together in an alphabetical list.

    I think that is generally the case with towns but not rural areas (eg East Wiltshire and South West Wiltshire)
    I would agree with that, except that Norfolk South West doesn’t scan as well. Norfolk south scans, as does Norfolk west, but not Norfolk South West. Well not to my ear anyway.

    I would prefer your suggestion over the status quo though.


    People already put the county name first unofficially much of the time.

    So just make it official so they look better in a spreadsheet, and people can officially say it differently.
    I believe shire constituencies are "North West Barsetshire" and borough constituencies are "Borchester North West"
    I did not know that. Makes a lot of sense!
  • Options
    ChristopherChristopher Posts: 91
    Reform 20% or more vote share now strong favourite on betfair. Was Goodwin right.
  • Options
    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,930
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    Anatomy of how the Tory campaign imploded from
    @oliver_wright


    * From the off the campaign has been riven by divisions and beset by avoidable mistakes

    * Claims of splits between No 10 team and wider campaign. 'Them and us has really been a problem'

    * Splits from the off - Dowden and other Sunak allies said to have pushed for early election, Isaac Levido opposed. Dowden has denied pushing to go early

    * 'We did an amazing job at keeping the timing of the election secret - but then we didn't capitalise on it because CCHQ were not prepared'

    * Claims CCHQ was 'chaotic' with candidate selections all over the place

    * Sheer volume of unforced errors - Sunak announcing election in rain, visit to Titanic, assumption Farage would not stand, D-Day fisaco...

    * Biggest miscalculation was Farage. 'We tried to ignore Reform for far too long,' senior party source says

    * Supermajority strategy born of desperation rather than design - hope had been polls would narrow. When they didn't the campaign broke glass

    * Tories comprehensively outgunned on spending - Labour built up huge warchest during short campaign

    * Tory ground operation denuded, while many senior figures from past did not take part

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1808934657825910801

    It was crazy to do it in July. If you were going to go early, go for May and potentially save a couple of hundred councillors at least. Otherwise wait until October or November.

    A July election made no sense at the start and still makes no sense now. 🤷‍♂️
    I honestly don't think timing was their problem. They took a bad hand and played it poorly. But they'd have had a similarly bad hand in May, or October, or January, or whenever, and Sunak wasn't a better campaigner in the Spring, and wouldn't have become match fit over the Summer.

    The Conservatives' problem is they'd had a long spell in office anyway, and then shat the bed quite badly over four and a half chaotic final years. Sunak was always pretty poor at politics and not anywhere near capable of turning it round. The date is essentially immaterial.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 20,296

    Reform 20% or more vote share now strong favourite on betfair. Was Goodwin right.

    QTWAIN.

    A fool and their money are easily parted.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763

    Reform 20% or more vote share now strong favourite on betfair. Was Goodwin right.

    At one point didn't Goodwin have them at 25?
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399

    Reform 20% or more vote share now strong favourite on betfair. Was Goodwin right.

    If he's right then the Tories really are sunk...
  • Options
    ChristopherChristopher Posts: 91
    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Patrick O'Flynn
    @oflynnsocial
    ·
    2h
    Am hearing from several places about a high turnout. This could mean any of 3 things a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out b) enthusiasm for Lab to get the Tories out c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform.
    Take yer pick!

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1808889969286557830

    Or it is all three....
    Reform certainly seemed to improve their poll ratings in the final week as labour fell below 40% and the Tories fell a little further too.

    I’m not convinced of an surge in voter numbers from anecdotal comments based on ‘someone said this’.

    We shall see.
    Reform 7 or more seats now massive favourite on betfair.
    That's a clear lay for me. Reform aren't a party, they're a one man ego trip with the organisational skills of a drunk brontosaurus.
    Again you have to separate your personal opinions from the market. The market is saying reform likely more than 7 seats but markets can be wrong.
  • Options
    maxhmaxh Posts: 1,025

    Anyone wanting to bet on tories over 150 seats nows the time to get a massive return. Markets now show less than 50 seats almost as likely.

    Thanks, just nibbled a bit more.
  • Options
    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,873

    Reform 20% or more vote share now strong favourite on betfair. Was Goodwin right.

    Only a very few, mostly affiliated pollsters have RefUk over 20%, suggests the punters are off piste here.
This discussion has been closed.