Reading the site, it feels like I have called every bet wrong except Farage winning in Clacton :-(
Welcome back. Nice to see some old names returning. It's like a Gathering of the Clans: General Election Night on PB
Old friends are reunited, ancient enemies leave their guns at the door and embrace, long estranged brothers share a horn of mead as they wait for the exit poll
Any chance of that old git SeanT turning up?
He had a wonderful turn of phrase when annoyed. He once told me he didn't give a tankard full of warm donkey spunk what I thought of him.
On much more important matters, my golf lesson this evening seems to have resolved my short putt pull to the left miss which was costing my handicap plenty.
I had a golf lesson this morning! I’ve only just started and having conquered all the par-3 courses East Kent has to offer I was working on my driver to take the step up to big boy golf.
Golf is a stupid game. There's no such thing as a perfect round, so there's always some frustration. You can never walk off the course satisfied with your effort, no matter how good you are, unless you've just won the Open.
So when you make all the short putts, you'll get annoyed at missing the 10 footers.
The only way to suffer it is to play matchplay, where at least you can grind your opponent into the dust.
I haven't played for years, despite a mis-spent youth.
A bike ride is much better all round (provided you don't care about Strava).
I've always gone BBC, but caught Laura K on news night yesterday and found her more annoying than I'd remembered, so I'll probably give ITV a go.
This is a change election!
ITV were really good last time, aside from Peston.
Problem is in Scotland we get STV which is strictly amateur hour. I remember the last time we got the UK ITV on the internet and put it on the TV. It was excellent. Tonight I am stuck in an hotel in Glasgow so BBC it will probably have to be.
I’ve just heard that several people I know are voting [INSERT PARTY OF PREFERENCE] and they’re not people I’d have expected. Knock me down with a feather!
It has to go from Professor Curtice’s team to the news broadcasters who, in turn, have to prepare their presentations.
Someone in the chain might have the potential to leak it?
They might prepare several opening presentations, might they not? I mean, there are only so many possibilities. They're not starting with a totally blank sheet of paper.
This line ought also to concern the anti-cash brigade: Payment processors are also increasingly wary of working with platforms that enable sex based commerce.
Back when, urm, 'friends of mine' worked in online adult entertainment there were only one or two processors who would take that business. The very large number of 'chargebacks' was often given as a reason.
"Oops! I accidentally signed up to Especially Flinty Flintknappers Go Wild for around 8 minutes - chargeback! Fraud! Omg!".
Also, if anyone is foolish enough (or horny enough) to sign up to such things - the site owners can see your details down to your home address. Which, if I was in any way involved or knew of, would have raised my eyebrow.
Can this country really be about to give Reform 18-20% of the vote? I mean apart from my betting book that just seems extraordinary. I can't see it. Bookmark this post to haunt me with my absurd view for ever more but I just can't see it.
I continue to see value in a much lower Reform vote share.
Reading the site, it feels like I have called every bet wrong except Farage winning in Clacton :-(
Welcome back. Nice to see some old names returning. It's like a Gathering of the Clans: General Election Night on PB
Old friends are reunited, ancient enemies leave their guns at the door and embrace, long estranged brothers share a horn of mead as they wait for the exit poll
Five minutes later the punch ups start again - just like a family Christmas!
Can this country really be about to give Reform 18-20% of the vote? I mean apart from my betting book that just seems extraordinary. I can't see it. Bookmark this post but I just can't see it.
I continue to see value in a much lower Reform vote share.
So as we move into the last hours of the Con government, I can't help but think how disappointing it has been. Love them or loathe them but Thatcher and Blair transformed the UK.
This iteration of the Cons have not achieved that much, if you think about it. For me, the problem has been the rotating cast of PMs and cabinet ministers, which has led to constant change. Great for the political journos but this has led to a loss of focus and long-term planning.
So as we move into the last hours of the Con government, I can't help but think how disappointing it has been. Love them or loathe them but Thatcher and Blair transformed the UK.
This iteration of the Cons have not achieved that much, if you think about it. For me, the problem has been the rotating cast of PMs and cabinet ministers, which has led to constant change. Great for the political journos but this has led to a loss of focus and long-term planning.
For good or ill, by taking us out of the EU they have arguably wrought a more profound change in our society and economy than Blair, Thatcher or indeed Wilson ever managed.
Time to think about parmentier and mashed potatoes, adding the mushrooms, starting the sweetcorn and the beans, and preparing the gravy and redcurrant jelly.
Enjoying a rather nice Argentinian Malbec, and preparing a Simpsons of Barham Court English Beora Wine to toast and celebrate the political death of Generation Sunk.
The pheasant's mum would be proud it has given its all to give so much pleasure and suspense to such an esteemed audience.
Back from two knocking-up stints (around 3 hours in total) in deepest Surrey and boy, it’s grimmer like wot I have never seen before in 40 years. No rudeness whatever, only polite but emphatic repudiation.
Had a whale of a time chatting to a lovely LibDem teller - we were both doing the 7.00am - 9.00am slot and took a selfie together at the end. There’s a camaraderie among us hacks.
It was obvious things were afoot when Forest Row started going Green in the locals. Forest Row.
Can this country really be about to give Reform 18-20% of the vote? I mean apart from my betting book that just seems extraordinary. I can't see it. Bookmark this post but I just can't see it.
I continue to see value in a much lower Reform vote share.
Yes, I am on 14% or lower.
I've just topped up on that. 12-13.99% at 10s (bf).
So as we move into the last hours of the Con government, I can't help but think how disappointing it has been. Love them or loathe them but Thatcher and Blair transformed the UK.
This iteration of the Cons have not achieved that much, if you think about it. For me, the problem has been the rotating cast of PMs and cabinet ministers, which has led to constant change. Great for the political journos but this has led to a loss of focus and long-term planning.
I've always gone BBC, but caught Laura K on news night yesterday and found her more annoying than I'd remembered, so I'll probably give ITV a go.
This is a change election!
We should have done a PB election night special.
TSE to host.
Hyufd doing the polls.
Nick Palmer doing the analysis.
RCS doing the tech.
Me doing the awesome puns.
Leon the roving reporter, clearly a bit sozzled and trying to be down with the youth at whatever gathering he's reporting from
Can I bagsy drawing some maps?
I'm crap at writing but I've wondered if some random GIS output might make the odd article, from transport to other sillyness like 'distance to the nearest Waitrose'.
Anyone got any suggestions?
Of course, if the whole country is a sea of red, there's not going to be much scope for any geographical amusements...
I would like there to be a map like the ones on 70s and 80s weather forecasts, with the magnetic shapes that don't always quite stick properly. And there would be a complete set of shapes in all possible party colours for all possible constituencies, which would be put in place as the results came in.
Scenes.
I'd go for a ww2 fighter-command room affair.
OK. Magnetic sticky map for the constituencies. Plot table with rakes for little statuettes of prominent Tories, to be ceremonially removed as they get beaten.
So as we move into the last hours of the Con government, I can't help but think how disappointing it has been. Love them or loathe them but Thatcher and Blair transformed the UK.
So as we move into the last hours of the Con government, I can't help but think how disappointing it has been. Love them or loathe them but Thatcher and Blair transformed the UK.
This iteration of the Cons have not achieved that much, if you think about it. For me, the problem has been the rotating cast of PMs and cabinet ministers, which has led to constant change. Great for the political journos but this has led to a loss of focus and long-term planning.
It all went quite well up to 2016. The coalition was quite a good government IMO.
This line ought also to concern the anti-cash brigade: Payment processors are also increasingly wary of working with platforms that enable sex based commerce.
Back when, urm, 'friends of mine' worked in online adult entertainment there were only one or two processors who would take that business. The very large number of 'chargebacks' was often given as a reason.
"Oops! I accidentally signed up to Especially Flinty Flintknappers Go Wild for around 8 minutes - chargeback! Fraud! Omg!".
Also, if anyone is foolish enough (or horny enough) to sign up to such things - the site owners can see your details down to your home address. Which, if I was in any way involved or knew of, would have raised my eyebrow.
Visa keeps getting sued over working with Pornhub back when Pornhub had a bunch of rape videos.
I've always gone BBC, but caught Laura K on news night yesterday and found her more annoying than I'd remembered, so I'll probably give ITV a go.
This is a change election!
ITV were really good last time, aside from Peston.
Problem is in Scotland we get STV which is strictly amateur hour. I remember the last time we got the UK ITV on the internet and put it on the TV. It was excellent. Tonight I am stuck in an hotel in Glasgow so BBC it will probably have to be.
So as we move into the last hours of the Con government, I can't help but think how disappointing it has been. Love them or loathe them but Thatcher and Blair transformed the UK.
This iteration of the Cons have not achieved that much, if you think about it. For me, the problem has been the rotating cast of PMs and cabinet ministers, which has led to constant change. Great for the political journos but this has led to a loss of focus and long-term planning.
I would say they have truly transformed Britain. Just not for the better.
Can this country really be about to give Reform 18-20% of the vote? I mean apart from my betting book that just seems extraordinary. I can't see it. Bookmark this post to haunt me with my absurd view for ever more but I just can't see it.
I continue to see value in a much lower Reform vote share.
They gave UKIP just under 13% in 2015, and it's basically the same mob. I agree it's a bit depressing, but right wing populism getting a decent vote isn't new - and Cameron was doing pretty well at that time so the right wing of the Tory Party were more likely to stick with him, despite having the slight feeling he wasn't totally one of them. RefUK now have an easier sell as they can say "the Government is useless and are doomed to defeat anyway".
So as we move into the last hours of the Con government, I can't help but think how disappointing it has been. Love them or loathe them but Thatcher and Blair transformed the UK.
This iteration of the Cons have not achieved that much, if you think about it. For me, the problem has been the rotating cast of PMs and cabinet ministers, which has led to constant change. Great for the political journos but this has led to a loss of focus and long-term planning.
For good or ill, by taking us out of the EU they have arguably wrought a more profound change in our society and economy than Blair, Thatcher or indeed Wilson ever managed.
Maybe. We've left the EU but they didn't follow up on it to deliver the change that people were hoping for.
Just been down the bookies to collect my horse racing winnings and who should I meet there but a certain Professor.
My lips are sealed but lets just say Count Binface is looking VERY good. Obviously I'd heard many friends saying they were voting for him - many who I would NEVER have expected to do so - but it looks like it is on!
On the other hand my agent, who I lunched with today, is best frineds with Sarah Vine. I might give her a call
(the gossip I hear about Gove et al, honestly, would make you blush with horror)
I saw a video the other day with Andrew Neil telling him to stop taking drugs (and I'm not entirely sure Neil was only joking... )
He is - how can I put this - apparently quite hedonistic. But also REALLY hard working. Through Ms Vine my agent has met basically all the senior Tories of the last two decades and dined with them and she says he's the really smart one, who gets things done
It'a shame he's a bit gnome-like in appearance, he'd probably have made a better prime minister than any of them - Cameron, Boris. TMay, Truss, Sunak. they could have had Gove all that time and they'd now be looking at a fifth term in office
On the other hand my agent, who I lunched with today, is best frineds with Sarah Vine. I might give her a call
(the gossip I hear about Gove et al, honestly, would make you blush with horror)
Meh... the REDACTED of REDACTED off the arses of REDACTED, its yesterday´s cold mince. Probably wise to have stood down nevertheless, even though being his being a journalist kept the most lurid stuff in a locked box....
A mistake, I think, though I'm just extrapolating from Didcot and Wantage. The poll here is generally agreed to have been much higher than recent years, and on paper it's a safe Tory seat. There was zero Tory campaign, near-zero Reform campaign (the area voted heavily against leaving the EU), only a sketchy Labour effort and a LibDem campaign based on leaflets (admittedly in huge numbers) rather than canvassing - many polling stations had no political representatives at all.
I think it's either a big LibDem majority or a last-minute Tory recovery, and on the whole the former seems more likely.
Quick question. Presumably the Exit Poll can’t tell about turnout?
Not really, no - or they won't publish it. They go to the same polling stations at the same times normally, so it's essentially a giant switch analysis (of a sort) rather than a normal poll. They'd probably know if there were more people coming through the door of a particular polling station than were doing so five years ago, but it's not really relevant to the analysis they are doing and what people want is to know the winner, not whether it's 65.8% or 70.1% turnout.
Can this country really be about to give Reform 18-20% of the vote? I mean apart from my betting book that just seems extraordinary. I can't see it. Bookmark this post but I just can't see it.
I continue to see value in a much lower Reform vote share.
Yes, I am on 14% or lower.
I've just topped up on that. 12-13.99% at 10s (bf).
I’m green below 16 but heavily so below 12. It didn’t cost much and I think there is a chance of a sub 10 reform percentage
So as we move into the last hours of the Con government, I can't help but think how disappointing it has been. Love them or loathe them but Thatcher and Blair transformed the UK.
This iteration of the Cons have not achieved that much, if you think about it. For me, the problem has been the rotating cast of PMs and cabinet ministers, which has led to constant change. Great for the political journos but this has led to a loss of focus and long-term planning.
For good or ill, by taking us out of the EU they have arguably wrought a more profound change in our society and economy than Blair, Thatcher or indeed Wilson ever managed.
Maybe. We've left the EU but they didn't follow up on it to deliver the change that people were hoping for.
Because it was all a fantasy. They promised the undeliverable and - shock, horror - it has been undeliverable.
In the twentieth century, just four party leaders who were not Conservatives (Unionists until 1925) or allied to the Conservatives won overall majorities in general elections.
Campbell-Bannerman in 1906. Attlee in 1945 and 1950. Wilson in 1964, 1966 and October 1974 Blair in 1997.
Could Starmer be about to take us 50% of the way to that total in a little over half the time?
I've always gone BBC, but caught Laura K on news night yesterday and found her more annoying than I'd remembered, so I'll probably give ITV a go.
This is a change election!
ITV were really good last time, aside from Peston.
Problem is in Scotland we get STV which is strictly amateur hour. I remember the last time we got the UK ITV on the internet and put it on the TV. It was excellent. Tonight I am stuck in an hotel in Glasgow so BBC it will probably have to be.
Quick question. Presumably the Exit Poll can’t tell about turnout?
If they're sampling in the same places and at the same times as they've done on all previous iterations of the exit poll, then it's possible they may know something about how the turnout is this time, relative to those past occasions. This depends, of course, on whether or not the numbers of voters entering the polling stations are being tallied, as well as the mock ballots being distributed to some of them.
It'a shame he's a bit gnome-like in appearance, he'd probably have made a better prime minister than any of them - Cameron, Boris. TMay, Truss, Sunak. they could have had Gove all that time and they'd now be looking at a fifth term in office
Quick question. Presumably the Exit Poll can’t tell about turnout?
Not really, no - or they won't publish it. They go to the same polling stations at the same times normally, so it's essentially a giant switch analysis (of a sort) rather than a normal poll. They'd probably know if there were more people coming through the door of a particular polling station than were doing so five years ago, but it's not really relevant to the analysis they are doing and what people want is to know the winner, not whether it's 65.8% or 70.1% turnout.
The exit poll is usually accurate, but in an election with such a massive swing may have a bigger MoE.
* From the off the campaign has been riven by divisions and beset by avoidable mistakes
* Claims of splits between No 10 team and wider campaign. 'Them and us has really been a problem'
* Splits from the off - Dowden and other Sunak allies said to have pushed for early election, Isaac Levido opposed. Dowden has denied pushing to go early
* 'We did an amazing job at keeping the timing of the election secret - but then we didn't capitalise on it because CCHQ were not prepared'
* Claims CCHQ was 'chaotic' with candidate selections all over the place
* Sheer volume of unforced errors - Sunak announcing election in rain, visit to Titanic, assumption Farage would not stand, D-Day fisaco...
* Biggest miscalculation was Farage. 'We tried to ignore Reform for far too long,' senior party source says
* Supermajority strategy born of desperation rather than design - hope had been polls would narrow. When they didn't the campaign broke glass
* Tories comprehensively outgunned on spending - Labour built up huge warchest during short campaign
* Tory ground operation denuded, while many senior figures from past did not take part
I also think they needed to decide whether the attack line would be that Starmer is weak and clueless and has no plan, or whether he was cunning and devious and has a secret socialist agenda. Trying both just undermines themselves.
I've always gone BBC, but caught Laura K on news night yesterday and found her more annoying than I'd remembered, so I'll probably give ITV a go.
This is a change election!
ITV were really good last time, aside from Peston.
Problem is in Scotland we get STV which is strictly amateur hour. I remember the last time we got the UK ITV on the internet and put it on the TV. It was excellent. Tonight I am stuck in an hotel in Glasgow so BBC it will probably have to be.
Wait, won't STV just be showing ITV coverage?
TV guide suggests its showing the main ITV feed
Much obliged! I was planning on BBC for the exit poll but defecting to ITV/STV for the coverage, so good to know that's an option.
So as we move into the last hours of the Con government, I can't help but think how disappointing it has been. Love them or loathe them but Thatcher and Blair transformed the UK.
This iteration of the Cons have not achieved that much, if you think about it. For me, the problem has been the rotating cast of PMs and cabinet ministers, which has led to constant change. Great for the political journos but this has led to a loss of focus and long-term planning.
Maybe the last hours of the Conservative Party.
That's an exaggeration. Less than 50 MPs seems highly unlikely. The Liberals didn't disappear after 1922.
I have just heard that several people I know are voting Reform. The last people I would have expected to. Fuck me.
Yes of course you have....
I wouldn't be surprised. The drop in the Labour vote has to go somewhere, and if it isn't going back to that nice Mr Sunak, then where else?
My betting strategy was that Lab and Con would either decline or plateau, leaving a big chunk sloshing about, looking for a home. And all the gossip today has been "my friend X, never voted in his life, just texted me to say "Reform"". How often is that going to happen before we go "Er, guys, something's happening..."
So as we move into the last hours of the Con government, I can't help but think how disappointing it has been. Love them or loathe them but Thatcher and Blair transformed the UK.
This iteration of the Cons have not achieved that much, if you think about it. For me, the problem has been the rotating cast of PMs and cabinet ministers, which has led to constant change. Great for the political journos but this has led to a loss of focus and long-term planning.
Seems to me a vast number of problems trace back ultimately to David Cameron not allowing the Civil Service to prepare contingency plans for Brexit.
On the other hand my agent, who I lunched with today, is best frineds with Sarah Vine. I might give her a call
(the gossip I hear about Gove et al, honestly, would make you blush with horror)
I saw a video the other day with Andrew Neil telling him to stop taking drugs (and I'm not entirely sure Neil was only joking... )
He is - how can I put this - apparently quite hedonistic. But also REALLY hard working. Through Ms Vine my agent has met basically all the senior Tories of the last two decades and dined with them and she says he's the really smart one, who gets things done
It'a shame he's a bit gnome-like in appearance, he'd probably have made a better prime minister than any of them - Cameron, Boris. TMay, Truss, Sunak. they could have had Gove all that time and they'd now be looking at a fifth term in office
Friend of a friend was a senior Spad for Gove, and though not entirely a political fellow-traveller, absolutely devoted to him. He inspires loyalty, apparently, by being both ridiculously smart and also just a very good guy to work for. All of this pains me to type out because I disagree with pretty much everything he's ever done, but there you go.
So as we move into the last hours of the Con government, I can't help but think how disappointing it has been. Love them or loathe them but Thatcher and Blair transformed the UK.
This iteration of the Cons have not achieved that much, if you think about it. For me, the problem has been the rotating cast of PMs and cabinet ministers, which has led to constant change. Great for the political journos but this has led to a loss of focus and long-term planning.
I think it was the purge of half the party post Brexit. A party that can include Hammond, Saj, Gauke, even Rory Stewart is a very different proposition to the current party.
But post election I suspect the Conservatives will go right not centre.
Quick q, but who is the most One Nation Tory likely to be eligible for the upcoming leadership race?
Could it be the Lib Dems that are moving, not Reform? Nick Palmer seems to be expecting a Lib Dem victory on his patch, which he was not doing before...
Could it be the Lib Dems that are moving, not Reform? Nick Palmer seems to be excepting a Lib Dem victory on his patch, which we was not doing before...
Are there any value Lib Dem constituencies on Betfair Exchange?
I’m stake limited at most bookies… and I think the value on the GB-wide lines isn’t as good?
In the twentieth century, just four party leaders who were not Conservatives (Unionists until 1925) or allied to the Conservatives won overall majorities in general elections.
Campbell-Bannerman in 1906. Attlee in 1945 and 1950. Wilson in 1964, 1966 and October 1974 Blair in 1997.
Could Starmer be about to take us 50% of the way to that total in a little over half the time?
So as we move into the last hours of the Con government, I can't help but think how disappointing it has been. Love them or loathe them but Thatcher and Blair transformed the UK.
This iteration of the Cons have not achieved that much, if you think about it. For me, the problem has been the rotating cast of PMs and cabinet ministers, which has led to constant change. Great for the political journos but this has led to a loss of focus and long-term planning.
Seems to me a vast number of problems trace back ultimately to David Cameron not allowing the Civil Service to prepare contingency plans for Brexit.
They had plenty of time between June 2016 and Jan 2020, but still we don't have customs that work 4 years further on. It's not Remainers fault that Brexit is a pigs ear, with gangrene.
How much of this will get picked up by the Exit Poll? I know that they had data by 2pm. But it surely would be problematic to not continue to sample through the day...?
How much of this will get picked up by the Exit Poll? I know that they had data by 2pm. But it surely would be problematic to not continue to sample through the day...?
Watched the Lashings play Evershalt in a T20 today, with Sir Alistair Cook playing for Evershalt. Curtly Ambrose bowling at Cook, the sun out, and a decent beer. Heaven. All I need now is an unlikely U.K. landslide by the Liberal Party from c.1955 and I will be very happy.
Comments
He had a wonderful turn of phrase when annoyed. He once told me he didn't give a tankard full of warm donkey spunk what I thought of him.
The inevitability of the result does interesting things to psychology of voters.
I think the seeds have been sewn today for the 2029 election being extremely interesting.
So when you make all the short putts, you'll get annoyed at missing the 10 footers.
The only way to suffer it is to play matchplay, where at least you can grind your opponent into the dust.
I haven't played for years, despite a mis-spent youth.
A bike ride is much better all round (provided you don't care about Strava).
On the other hand my agent, who I lunched with today, is best frineds with Sarah Vine. I might give her a call
(the gossip I hear about Gove et al, honestly, would make you blush with horror)
"Oops! I accidentally signed up to Especially Flinty Flintknappers Go Wild for around 8 minutes - chargeback! Fraud! Omg!".
Also, if anyone is foolish enough (or horny enough) to sign up to such things - the site owners can see your details down to your home address. Which, if I was in any way involved or knew of, would have raised my eyebrow.
There's a thread header there at some point.
I continue to see value in a much lower Reform vote share.
This iteration of the Cons have not achieved that much, if you think about it. For me, the problem has been the rotating cast of PMs and cabinet ministers, which has led to constant change. Great for the political journos but this has led to a loss of focus and long-term planning.
20 minutes to go, plus 10 of resting.
Time to think about parmentier and mashed potatoes, adding the mushrooms, starting the sweetcorn and the beans, and preparing the gravy and redcurrant jelly.
Enjoying a rather nice Argentinian Malbec, and preparing a Simpsons of Barham Court English Beora Wine to toast and celebrate the political death of Generation Sunk.
The pheasant's mum would be proud it has given its all to give so much pleasure and suspense to such an esteemed audience.
Then the referendum and it all went south...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7scMC7YSDQ
"The Armando Iannucci Show - Except for viewers in Scotland"
Just not for the better.
My lips are sealed but lets just say Count Binface is looking VERY good. Obviously I'd heard many friends saying they were voting for him - many who I would NEVER have expected to do so - but it looks like it is on!
It'a shame he's a bit gnome-like in appearance, he'd probably have made a better prime minister than any of them - Cameron, Boris. TMay, Truss, Sunak. they could have had Gove all that time and they'd now be looking at a fifth term in office
Tho I imagine the counting dudes know pretty quick by the first returns
I think it's either a big LibDem majority or a last-minute Tory recovery, and on the whole the former seems more likely.
Your Groucho Club anecdote of the day was very Ab Fab. Did you buy some, lovely, lovely things from Harvey Nics on the way home?
In the twentieth century, just four party leaders who were not Conservatives (Unionists until 1925) or allied to the Conservatives won overall majorities in general elections.
Campbell-Bannerman in 1906.
Attlee in 1945 and 1950.
Wilson in 1964, 1966 and October 1974
Blair in 1997.
Could Starmer be about to take us 50% of the way to that total in a little over half the time?
Take Back Control
No You fucking take it!
You touched it last...
3.8 now. Was 7.6 last night so that’s halved.
Break a leg, btw!
My betting strategy was that Lab and Con would either decline or plateau, leaving a big chunk sloshing about, looking for a home. And all the gossip today has been "my friend X, never voted in his life, just texted me to say "Reform"". How often is that going to happen before we go "Er, guys, something's happening..."
The #ExitPoll has started to make its way across London towards the BBC.
That's betting - enjoy the wins and it's fine to be a bit exposed, just not over-exposed.
But post election I suspect the Conservatives will go right not centre.
Quick q, but who is the most One Nation Tory likely to be eligible for the upcoming leadership race?
0 to 50 seats now more likely than 100 to 149.
"looking forward to a big win for Sunak tonight"
I’m stake limited at most bookies… and I think the value on the GB-wide lines isn’t as good?
How much of this will get picked up by the Exit Poll? I know that they had data by 2pm. But it surely would be problematic to not continue to sample through the day...?
Has the Prof got a secret Starlink terminal and a bank of people in Nigeria putting bets on?
My guess is Tories below 100 but marginally above the Lib Dems.
God knows what happens if Tories + Reform are above Lib Dem but the Tories on their own are not.
Better than waiting.