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What’s new pussy cat? – politicalbetting.com

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  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,641
    BOOM!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,384
    edited July 2024
    I was pretty close! A bit out, but roughly right ballpark for parliament make up.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,507
    61 LDs
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,243
    131
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,917
    410 v 131
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,595
    Gosh!!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,907
    Reform on 13. Wow!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,323
    Well well…
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Phew!
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,106
    Casino_Royale said:

    Carnyx said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Why are BBC signing this?

    Jesus.

    Because some people can't hear it.
    Tough. On that argument you'd always have it.

    I lose 25% of the screen with a berk gesticulating in the foreground.
    You need to be on BBC1 not BBC News if you're on BBC - no signing on BBC1
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,450
    Ooo, SNP.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Wowsers
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,686
    @EdConwaySky
    🚨EXIT POLL🚨
    - Labour projected to win landslide election (410).
    - Tories face historic implosion, with no of MPs dropping to lowest level since 1830s (131)
    - Reform to pick up 13 MPs with an even bigger share of the vote than LibDems (61)
    - SNP to suffer massive defeat
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,124
    FrankBooth said:

    One thing I wanted to mention.

    If the Lib Dems plus SNP get more seats than the Tories could they keep them out of opposition?

    Nope. Sworn enemies
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,999
    Fack!
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,243
    Hah the SNP
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,323
    Farage 2 questions at PMQs
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    Carnyx said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Why are BBC signing this?

    Jesus.

    Because some people can't hear it.
    Perhaps CR thinks they just wokely identify as deaf
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,252
    Reform 13!
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Bad for SNP.

    Well done Rishi
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,850
    My prediction is bang on that except under on Reform and over on SNP
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,384
    SNP 10!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,464
    MEH
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,106
    Big for Ref, if true. Good for my bets on Con seats if true.
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 721
    edited July 2024


    13. for Reform.!!

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,907
    Might be good for my betting there, depends on Reform votes.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,264
    SNP 10 - maybe Con hold ANME?
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597
    edited July 2024
    Tories still in three figures, Reform in double figures, SNP meltdown!
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,742
    Has Reform mainly won Lab seats?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,384
    Pro_Rata said:

    Ooo, SNP.

    That's me backing them to get 22+ seats this morning!
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,264
    The MRPS don't look too bad.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 981
    SNP in 10

    Hahahhahah
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,595
    Smaller majority than 1997?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,404
    Tweedledee said:

    Carnyx said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Why are BBC signing this?

    Jesus.

    Because some people can't hear it.
    Perhaps CR thinks they just wokely identify as deaf
    Exactly. Or it's just woke to worry about the disabled.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,641
    Cheerio SNP :smiley::smiley::smiley:
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    Tories badly beaten, but live to fight another day. SNP thrashed. Look at Reform too!

    Blair level overall majority for Keir.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,242
    get in
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,127
    Wow, now I can start drinking
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,907
    That's not awful actually.

    Starmer lower on seats (and votes presumably) than Blair in either 1997 or 2001.

    Tories 30 seats lower, but it's Reform that's done that.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,471
    If this is the result then it is far better than I had hoped but let's see
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,092
    Next Scottish referendum vanishes into the far future
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,535
    Horrendous for SNP!!

    Really disappointed by 13 for Reform.
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    edited July 2024
    SNP stuffed more than a step-Tory
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,543
    Con survive...
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Majority of 168
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Farage 2 questions at PMQs

    Lib Dems on 61?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,623
    Immediately interested in Reform seats. At 13 they must be on the cusp of a decent chunk more, within the perimeters of this poll.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,243
    Please charge Nicola tomorrow.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,092
    SandraMc said:



    13. for Reform.!!

    13 surely?
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,839
    SNP Wipeout, Tories still the opposition.

    I'll take it.

    Not sure I believe Reform 13.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,453
    MarqueeMark said:

    Smaller majority than 1997?

    About 9 less (170 vs 179?)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,507
    Still reckon there’s variability on seats, Labour excepted.

    Tory over 100 bet looks like it paid off, however
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,192
    Andy_JS said:

    My forecasts for each seat. Not exactly the same as the exit poll, but I have Lab 407, Con 127, LD 70.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iFyVLRnJG_7HD1BrN6BQMzU_n2Vl-BjJEIz5H3qq6XA/edit?gid=0#gid=0

    Very good!
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,124
    Phew!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,453
    TWO GREEN SEATS! THAT'LL DO ME!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,999
    MarqueeMark said:

    Smaller majority than 1997?

    13 for the Putinistas- Feck!
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,826
    So which MRP won based on this?
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    Other 19? That's including Speaker Hoyle?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    13! I was fully part of the reform surge is over-engaged panels thesis. Wow. Also lmao SNP. ITV one to watch her cry.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,489
    Selebian said:

    Big for Ref, if true. Good for my bets on Con seats if true.

    Yep, suggests Reform is on 18-19%. But, on the other hand, suggests they are quite a long way behind Conservatives.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,243
    Now what about PC 4 and Green 2?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,135
    Ooh I was very close! Apart from the Faragasm. That’s surprising.

    Tories big sigh of relief - no LOTO Ed Davey.

    Now what happens to Reform and the Tories? Next big battle of British politics for the right.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,917
    viewcode said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Smaller majority than 1997?

    About 9 less (170 vs 179?)
    Not too shabby :)
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,450
    Others 19 suggests only NI and Speaker.

    No Galloway, no Corbyn.
  • EScrymgeourEScrymgeour Posts: 141
    Exit usually pretty good in Scotland.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    The reform 13 is the biggest shocker here
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,505
    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    The MRPS don't look too bad.

    A big loss for those who've been breathlessly Baxtering the trad polls, though!
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,243
    DM_Andy said:

    Other 19? That's including Speaker Hoyle?

    And NI
  • Simon_PeachSimon_Peach Posts: 424
    One short of a Supermajority… total vindication of Sunak strategy
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    The main story here is no conservative wipeout.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,975
    The most seats won ever.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,917
    Pro_Rata said:

    Others 19 suggests only NI and Speaker.

    No Galloway, no Corbyn.

    23 others?
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,192
    rcs1000 said:

    Big result for Reform
    Conservatives avoid total disaster
    SNP appalling result
    LDs make lots of gains

    Everyone happy, or at least relieved, apart from the SNP, if that's the result.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,513
    Joy of joys.

    1997 all over again.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,489
    numbertwelve said:

    Ooh I was very close! Apart from the Faragasm. That’s surprising.

    Tories big sigh of relief - no LOTO Ed Davey.

    Now what happens to Reform and the Tories? Next big battle of British politics for the right.

    That's a really interesting question.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 981
    Tories survive.

    Ah well
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,009

    NEW THREAD

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,757
    Exit poll predicting no Corbyn, no Workers Party, no Gaza-friendly indies... although like an MRP, it won't be good at odd individual seats?

    Anyway off to zzzzzzzzzz
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,742
    SNP so low implies Lab has done quite a bit worse than expected in England.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,489
    Other 19 - Jeremy Corbyn?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 22,917
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Farage 2 questions at PMQs

    No, Davey 2 questions at PMQs surely?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,124
    SNP 10 is abject
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,836
    Triumph and vindication for Farage
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,624
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Well well…

    Good luck Rochdale, whatever the result I hope you really enjoyed the experience.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,872
    WELL, WELL, WELL
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    That Lib Dem result indicates that they have probably made major advances in the South. If they can hold those seats, the Conservatives will have to work extremely hard ever to win another majority.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,353
    My forecast of earlier:

    So that gives my base case as follows:

    Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.

    Baxtering gives a 188-seat Lab majority which is not too shabby.

    Cons party seats 121, Lab 419 which I have backed.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,648
    I'm annoyed because I had figures of Lab 407, Con 127, LD 70 this morning before the polls opened but decided not to post it in case it was wrong.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,489
    Ratters said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Big result for Reform
    Conservatives avoid total disaster
    SNP appalling result
    LDs make lots of gains

    Everyone happy, or at least relieved, apart from the SNP, if that's the result.
    Yep, I think that's exactly right. Everyone except the SNP is at least a little happy.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,821
    Chris said:

    Betfair seems to be moving in the direction of more Tory seats.

    A very noticeable move in the direction of the exit poll, more than ten minutes before it was officially released.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,507
    So it looks like we have 160-170 Lab gain from Tory? Now we just need the names
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 721
    turbotubbs said:

    SandraMc said:



    13. for Reform.!!

    13 surely?
    I read it was 19 and then put my glasses on, realised my mistake and edited.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,448
    Quite pleased with that on all levels except the Reform seats.

    Most of my bets were over 100 Con seats.

    Cons aren't wiped out which is good imo.

    I didn't believe Reform would deliver, I'll lose a bit on Reform seat numbers.
  • pinball13pinball13 Posts: 83
    edited July 2024
    131 is a bit underwhelming. There's no way Ref are getting 13!
  • SkiddertonSkidderton Posts: 15
    MarqueeMark said:

    Smaller majority than 1997?

    KS is doing alright, but he's no TB !
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,172
    LD numbers look good for my bets, other than the really long odds punts.
    Not really going to know about some of those until tomorrow morning, so time for bed.

    Good luck all, and see you tomorrow.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,127
    So which MRP poll was the most accurate (assuming the exit poll is broadly correct)?
This discussion has been closed.