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Could the Conservatives Really Come Third? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 503
    DM_Andy said:

    maaarsh said:

    DM_Andy said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Is Farage on the same planet as me, "the more you earn the less disposable income you have"

    Presumably he means that marginal rates of tax tend to increase with greater earnings.
    Yes, but that doesn't reduce your disposable income, we don't have over 100% marginal rates.
    Yes we do. No one with kids earns between 100-115k unless they're borderline braindead.
    Fair enough, if you have 4 kids or more, but that's not the general rule like Farage suggested.
    Not about 4 kids. 1 kid will do it if they're young enough for free childcare. Being around there myself I am having to be quite cunning as Baby Dumbo gets close to 9 months...
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    Penny Mordaunt is hectoring and constantly interrupting. Really hope she loses her seat. Ghastly woman.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,821
    DM_Andy said:

    Phil said:

    DM_Andy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Farage’s stat on the number of people paying the 40p rate is remarkable if true.

    I'm now in the 40p rate and I'm completely fine with it, I earn a decent wedge and happy to pay my fair share. I believe the old line "From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs" is a good one to follow.
    Don’t forget that your employer is paying 13.8% NI on top of your salary for the privilege of employing you. Real income tax rates on employment are punishingly high in this country, especially for those making student loan payments (effectively a graduate tax), for whom the marginal rate (assuming a higher rate tax payer & including employers NI) is approx 63%. Even more if you’re paying off a post-grad loan as well.

    We have become a high tax country with shitty public services.
    Since when does the employers NI reduce your disposable income?
    Its part of the cost to the employer of employing someone.

    Get rid of employers NI and the gross pay could increase 13.8% without costing the employer any more.

    Now if employers NI disappeared tomorrow it would initially mean that the employer's cost would fall.

    But in the medium to long term wages would rise until most or all of the employers national insurance cost instead went on higher wages.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    No Reform candidate in Epping Forest to Neil Hudson's relief. Though Reform are standing in Harlow, Chingford and Brentwood and Ongar
    https://www.eppingforestdc.gov.uk/general-election-candidates-announced/
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    PhilPhil Posts: 2,122

    Phil said:

    DM_Andy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Farage’s stat on the number of people paying the 40p rate is remarkable if true.

    I'm now in the 40p rate and I'm completely fine with it, I earn a decent wedge and happy to pay my fair share. I believe the old line "From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs" is a good one to follow.
    Don’t forget that your employer is paying 13.8% NI on top of your salary for the privilege of employing you. Real income tax rates on employment are punishingly high in this country, especially for those making student loan payments (effectively a graduate tax), for whom the marginal rate (assuming a higher rate tax payer & including employers NI) is approx 63%. Even more if you’re paying off a post-grad loan as well.

    We have become a high tax country with shitty public services.
    and once again Farage picks out something he know will get votes - he is some performer
    The student loan thing is particularly galling since (as I understand things, I’m sure there was a recent article about this in the Economist or somewhere similar?) it would have been /cheaper/ just to pay out student grants. But no, we had to create a complicated loan scheme with all the hideously expensive bureaucracy to go with it instead.

    The student loan debacle is also one of the drivers behind the imminent collapse of the UK university sector because, despite a decade of inflation since the fee cap was put in place, the government has refused to increase it at all. So university fees are now the equivalent of £6500 in 2012. Unsurprisingly, things are starting to fall apart at the seams.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,908
    boulay said:

    Everything’s going so well…

    The launch of Labour’s new Kemptown candidate Chris Ward’s campaign was interrupted this afternoon by anti-Israel demonstrators.

    About a dozen protesters attended the meeting at St George’s Church in Kemptown Village.

    As one speaker, Caroline O’Reilly, harangued Mr Ward and senior Labour politician Chris Bryant, others clapped and clicked their fingers in approval.

    After about five minutes, Mr Ward, Mr Bryant and other party members left the church……


    “I don’t think you realise the depth of unhappiness that it’s caused. Lloyd was elected by us. You have not been elected by us.

    “From what my research says, you are not the person who will represent my interests and thsoe of my children and grandchilden, and …”

    Chris Bryant then tried to speak, telling her “no more ands”.

    Mrs O’Reilly shouted back: “Don’t tell me no more ands. I’m just as entitled to my opinion.

    https://www.brightonandhovenews.org/2024/06/07/gaza-campaigners-disrupt-new-kemptown-labour-candidates-campaign-launch/#google_vignette

    Quite right Carlotta, the Labour campaign is really on the ropes. It's all anyone is talking about.
    Rishi “I’ve got them just where I want them, behind me with my pants pulled down.”
    I though S&M was a Liz T thing ?
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,708
    boulay said:

    Not much support for Nigel among the audience...

    To be fair, and this is just unscientific feels, lefties seem much more into clapping and whooping for their side.its the inner righteousness that takes over their bodies.
    The righties just sound like the primate house feeding time at Regent's Park, though. Vide Tory MPs at PMQ.
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    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,048
    Farage sounds like the bloke in the pub trying to butt in on everyone else's conversation.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    But generally the debate is godawful

    Farage isn’t really that charismatic, is he?!
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399

    Farooq said:

    Good evening

    I wonder how many have switched this off as it is wholly depressing and frankly Mordaunt v Rayner is embarrassing to watch

    I am amazed but Plaid doing best for me

    All Conservatives end up voting for Plaid eventually :lol:
    First HYUFD, now you. Casino will be along before long, pushing leaflets through doors in Treforest, sporting a little daffodil lapel pin, greeting people with a cheery "arrite butt?"
    I am not voting Plaid believe you me
    I am about to watch the leader of the Scottish Conservatives up close. He's been out telling people that he isn't on the Scottish Conservatives Management Board (he is), that they spoke to Duguid (they didn't), that he knew nothing about the vacancy, and that everyone is supporting him (as members resign from the party on Facebook in protest).
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    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,367

    Penny apparently trying to pivot a Net Zero question into Labour tax rises. "My constituents cannot afford that" says the minister whose government has put taxes up to crazy levels and instigated a cost of living crisis which forces people in full time work to rely on foodbanks

    She keeps going back to Sunak's tax lie, does she have a death wish?

    Oh god, Farage going full-on Daily Express "I'm not racist but..."
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774
    Applause for Farage on stop and search.
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    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,739
    edited June 7
    Nige is going afer the BNP vote, too, obviously.

    Black and ethnic minority crime, he says. "Ofcourse everyone says we're racist."

    This is the part when your friendly village rake Boulay talked about takes you aside in a nice corner, just man-to-man ofcourse, after everyone's had a few drinks, the evening's loosening up, and the waitresses are starting to look more appealing to the partygoers.
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    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,048
    Heathener said:

    But generally the debate is godawful

    Farage isn’t really that charismatic, is he?!

    It works for some people. I'm not in that subset of people but that's okay, he doesn't need 90%+ of the vote.

  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,708

    Good evening

    I wonder how many have switched this off as it is wholly depressing and frankly Mordaunt v Rayner is embarrassing to watch

    I am amazed but Plaid doing best for me

    And, unlike most of us, you are in the fortunate position of being able to vote for them. If HYUFD can do it, so can you ...
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    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,873
    DM_Andy said:

    Farage sounds like the bloke in the pub trying to butt in on everyone else's conversation.

    Bullshitting... Hardest game in the world... Until I got this terrible back injury...
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    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,204
    edited June 7

    The losers tonight for me are Mordaunt, Rayner, and Farage

    But overall doesn't it make us all despair at the quality of our politicians

    We keep getting told they could make more in the private sector, I do wonder how many would if they didnt have mp on their cv and the ability to offer contacts. Not only that but reportedly 40% of mps are still unemployed a year after be de elected
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,210
    Carnyx said:

    Good evening

    I wonder how many have switched this off as it is wholly depressing and frankly Mordaunt v Rayner is embarrassing to watch

    I am amazed but Plaid doing best for me

    And, unlike most of us, you are in the fortunate position of being able to vote for them. If HYUFD can do it, so can you ...
    Indeed but I won't as I reject Independence
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915

    DM_Andy said:

    Phil said:

    DM_Andy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Farage’s stat on the number of people paying the 40p rate is remarkable if true.

    I'm now in the 40p rate and I'm completely fine with it, I earn a decent wedge and happy to pay my fair share. I believe the old line "From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs" is a good one to follow.
    Don’t forget that your employer is paying 13.8% NI on top of your salary for the privilege of employing you. Real income tax rates on employment are punishingly high in this country, especially for those making student loan payments (effectively a graduate tax), for whom the marginal rate (assuming a higher rate tax payer & including employers NI) is approx 63%. Even more if you’re paying off a post-grad loan as well.

    We have become a high tax country with shitty public services.
    Since when does the employers NI reduce your disposable income?
    Its part of the cost to the employer of employing someone.

    Get rid of employers NI and the gross pay could increase 13.8% without costing the employer any more.

    Now if employers NI disappeared tomorrow it would initially mean that the employer's cost would fall.

    But in the medium to long term wages would rise until most or all of the employers national insurance cost instead went on higher wages.
    Most likely they would go on higher profits initially and get swallowed up with inefficiencies in the longer term.

    And what other taxes would you raise to replace Employer's NI, or would you just prefer to see public services gutted further?
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,708

    Farooq said:

    Good evening

    I wonder how many have switched this off as it is wholly depressing and frankly Mordaunt v Rayner is embarrassing to watch

    I am amazed but Plaid doing best for me

    All Conservatives end up voting for Plaid eventually :lol:
    First HYUFD, now you. Casino will be along before long, pushing leaflets through doors in Treforest, sporting a little daffodil lapel pin, greeting people with a cheery "arrite butt?"
    I am not voting Plaid believe you me
    I am about to watch the leader of the Scottish Conservatives up close. He's been out telling people that he isn't on the Scottish Conservatives Management Board (he is), that they spoke to Duguid (they didn't), that he knew nothing about the vacancy, and that everyone is supporting him (as members resign from the party on Facebook in protest).
    Will you be reporting back?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    Nige is going afer the BNP vote too, obviously.

    Black and ethnic minority crime, he says. "Ofcourse everyone says we're racist."

    Yeesh. Though it coudl ensure all the publicity is about him, and any attention helps Reform overall?
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    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,048
    Penny: If you only pick some sorts of crime we've halved crime in the last 14 years.
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    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,854
    edited June 7
    Mordaunt is absolutely dreadful at this. Admittedly, she has nothing to work with, but even so.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,708
    Farooq said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Flynn: Scotland owns all the weather.

    It's true. We have rain, downpours, floods, streams, torrents, cloudbursts, spits, spates, smirr, sprinkles and sheets. It pours, flurries, falls and showers. I've known a few drizzles to break out in the midst of the monsoons, and we even once had a deluge.

    Can shitty little England boast such climatological diversity? No.
    Indeed. We had this thing called 'sunshine' with a run on Factor 50 in the chemist's, a few days ago.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399
    Farooq said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Flynn: Scotland owns all the weather.

    It's true. We have rain, downpours, floods, streams, torrents, cloudbursts, spits, spates, smirr, sprinkles and sheets. It pours, flurries, falls and showers. I've known a few drizzles to break out in the midst of the monsoons, and we even once had a deluge.

    Can shitty little England boast such climatological diversity? No.
    And thats all in the same afternoon. Interspersed with baking sun, hail and fog.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    I can only think Penny is pitching solely for the Conservative membership with this performance. She’s bidding to be next leader. She’s not appealing to the middle ground of British politics.

    Daisy Cooper has been really good. Angela Rayner very understated, but that’s okay.

    Farage fairly dull and old hat - heard it all before - but that’s just my opinion obvs.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,247
    "The right could win big in Europe – thanks to young people"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqqq952e3v6o

    Cultural non-translation to English-speaking countries.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    DM_Andy said:

    Farage sounds like the bloke in the pub trying to butt in on everyone else's conversation.

    The wide boys wide boy
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399
    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Good evening

    I wonder how many have switched this off as it is wholly depressing and frankly Mordaunt v Rayner is embarrassing to watch

    I am amazed but Plaid doing best for me

    All Conservatives end up voting for Plaid eventually :lol:
    First HYUFD, now you. Casino will be along before long, pushing leaflets through doors in Treforest, sporting a little daffodil lapel pin, greeting people with a cheery "arrite butt?"
    I am not voting Plaid believe you me
    I am about to watch the leader of the Scottish Conservatives up close. He's been out telling people that he isn't on the Scottish Conservatives Management Board (he is), that they spoke to Duguid (they didn't), that he knew nothing about the vacancy, and that everyone is supporting him (as members resign from the party on Facebook in protest).
    Will you be reporting back?
    Oh hell yes. I'm already doing the crazy thing by posting on here in the midst of an election campaign. Why would I stop?
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,708

    Carnyx said:

    Good evening

    I wonder how many have switched this off as it is wholly depressing and frankly Mordaunt v Rayner is embarrassing to watch

    I am amazed but Plaid doing best for me

    And, unlike most of us, you are in the fortunate position of being able to vote for them. If HYUFD can do it, so can you ...
    Indeed but I won't as I reject Independence
    Butd you don't like Llafur and the Tories are, you claim, beyond you, so who else is there? It's not like the old days when Liberals, sheep, slate and chapel went together.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    Pagan2 said:

    The losers tonight for me are Mordaunt, Rayner, and Farage

    But overall doesn't it make us all despair at the quality of our politicians

    We keep getting told they could make more in the private sector, I do wonder how many would if they didnt have mp on their cv and the ability to offer contacts. Not only that but reportedly 40% of mps are still unemployed a year after be de elected
    Honestly, I think standing up in front of the cameras and an audience of millions, answering questions to which there are no palatable answers, surrounded by six people hoping you will fall flat on your face and ready to heckle at any time... I think that's a tough gig and not many could do it that well.
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    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085
    edited June 7
    Heathener said:

    Penny Mordaunt is hectoring and constantly interrupting. Really hope she loses her seat. Ghastly woman.

    Less of the misogyny please, referring to her sex as a derogatory point is beneath you. You could have said “ghastly person” but ghastly woman is so loaded with some retro sexist memories of “to the manor born” and all that.
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,170
    I think the winners are the LibDems and Greens, because they get coverage they’re not otherwise getting much. The biggest losers are the likes of the Workers Party of Britain and Alba, who don’t get a voice.

    And the Tories. The Tories are also losing this.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    Heathener said:

    I can only think Penny is pitching solely for the Conservative membership with this performance. She’s bidding to be next leader. She’s not appealing to the middle ground of British politics.

    Daisy Cooper has been really good. Angela Rayner very understated, but that’s okay.

    Farage fairly dull and old hat - heard it all before - but that’s just my opinion obvs.

    The amount of air time each is getting is really varying.

    Surprisibgly id say Flynn is getting less time than anyone. Daisy second last, and the Plaid bloke. Farage of course getting the most of the minor parties.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,020

    DM_Andy said:

    Phil said:

    DM_Andy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Farage’s stat on the number of people paying the 40p rate is remarkable if true.

    I'm now in the 40p rate and I'm completely fine with it, I earn a decent wedge and happy to pay my fair share. I believe the old line "From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs" is a good one to follow.
    Don’t forget that your employer is paying 13.8% NI on top of your salary for the privilege of employing you. Real income tax rates on employment are punishingly high in this country, especially for those making student loan payments (effectively a graduate tax), for whom the marginal rate (assuming a higher rate tax payer & including employers NI) is approx 63%. Even more if you’re paying off a post-grad loan as well.

    We have become a high tax country with shitty public services.
    Since when does the employers NI reduce your disposable income?
    Its part of the cost to the employer of employing someone.

    Get rid of employers NI and the gross pay could increase 13.8% without costing the employer any more.

    Now if employers NI disappeared tomorrow it would initially mean that the employer's cost would fall.

    But in the medium to long term wages would rise until most or all of the employers national insurance cost instead went on higher wages.
    Most likely they would go on higher profits initially and get swallowed up with inefficiencies in the longer term.

    And what other taxes would you raise to replace Employer's NI, or would you just prefer to see public services gutted further?
    Employers NI is.. fine. But it needs to be paid by all employers, including those who employ themselves & the likes of Uber too.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,821

    DM_Andy said:

    Phil said:

    DM_Andy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Farage’s stat on the number of people paying the 40p rate is remarkable if true.

    I'm now in the 40p rate and I'm completely fine with it, I earn a decent wedge and happy to pay my fair share. I believe the old line "From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs" is a good one to follow.
    Don’t forget that your employer is paying 13.8% NI on top of your salary for the privilege of employing you. Real income tax rates on employment are punishingly high in this country, especially for those making student loan payments (effectively a graduate tax), for whom the marginal rate (assuming a higher rate tax payer & including employers NI) is approx 63%. Even more if you’re paying off a post-grad loan as well.

    We have become a high tax country with shitty public services.
    Since when does the employers NI reduce your disposable income?
    Its part of the cost to the employer of employing someone.

    Get rid of employers NI and the gross pay could increase 13.8% without costing the employer any more.

    Now if employers NI disappeared tomorrow it would initially mean that the employer's cost would fall.

    But in the medium to long term wages would rise until most or all of the employers national insurance cost instead went on higher wages.
    Most likely they would go on higher profits initially and get swallowed up with inefficiencies in the longer term.

    And what other taxes would you raise to replace Employer's NI, or would you just prefer to see public services gutted further?
    I'm not saying I would get rid of it, merely pointing out the effect it has on employee wages.

    Personally I think employers NI should be shown on payslips so that workers can see all the taxes being paid from their work.

    And there are many other things that can get 'swallowed up with inefficiencies in the longer term'.

    Public spending increases for example.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,708
    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Flynn: Scotland owns all the weather.

    It's true. We have rain, downpours, floods, streams, torrents, cloudbursts, spits, spates, smirr, sprinkles and sheets. It pours, flurries, falls and showers. I've known a few drizzles to break out in the midst of the monsoons, and we even once had a deluge.

    Can shitty little England boast such climatological diversity? No.
    Indeed. We had this thing called 'sunshine' with a run on Factor 50 in the chemist's, a few days ago.
    Well, taps aff means a lot of skin to cover, so you need a full tube.
    A lot of people over in Glesga are so pale they get sunburn from the aurora.
    Not just in Glasgow Green. I'm like that too.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    edited June 7
    boulay said:

    Heathener said:

    Penny Mordaunt is hectoring and constantly interrupting. Really hope she loses her seat. Ghastly woman.

    Less of the misogyny please, referring to her sex as a derogatory point is beneath you. You could have said “ghastly person” but ghastly woman is so loaded with some retro sexist memories of “to the manor born” and all that.
    Thanks for the mansplaining!
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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,562
    I think Southgate needs the waistcoat and the the tie.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,247
    edited June 7
    No RefUK candidate in Gavin Williamson's new seat of Stone, Great Wyrley & Penkridge.

    https://www.sstaffs.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2024-06/SOPN__NOP_Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge.pdf

    Makes this seat a possibility for the highest Tory share in the country, given that Reform probably would have done quite well if they'd stood.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    Andy_JS said:

    "The right could win big in Europe – thanks to young people"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqqq952e3v6o

    Cultural non-translation to English-speaking countries.

    It’s hype though. The far right in Europe isn’t a unified bloc, and it won’t do that well at these elections.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,210
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Good evening

    I wonder how many have switched this off as it is wholly depressing and frankly Mordaunt v Rayner is embarrassing to watch

    I am amazed but Plaid doing best for me

    And, unlike most of us, you are in the fortunate position of being able to vote for them. If HYUFD can do it, so can you ...
    Indeed but I won't as I reject Independence
    Butd you don't like Llafur and the Tories are, you claim, beyond you, so who else is there? It's not like the old days when Liberals, sheep, slate and chapel went together.
    Lib dems or Independents
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,708
    rcs1000 said:

    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    Farage must have the easiest job on that stage. He does what he does well, but it must be shooting fish in a barrel.

    Never really understood that idiom. Unless the barrel is completely packed with fish, it would actually be quite hard to shoot one.
    Also, the drag of water is really high. If you fire a bullet into a pool, it rapidly loses forward momentum. All the fish need to do is hang out near the bottom of the barrel. First thing they teach in fish school.
    Just use a grenade round with delay initiation in the shotgun. Problem solved.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    Why is Farage getting two speeches for every topic?
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    What a terrible debate
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,736
    rcs1000 said:

    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    Farage must have the easiest job on that stage. He does what he does well, but it must be shooting fish in a barrel.

    Never really understood that idiom. Unless the barrel is completely packed with fish, it would actually be quite hard to shoot one.
    Also, the drag of water is really high. If you fire a bullet into a pool, it rapidly loses forward momentum. All the fish need to do is hang out near the bottom of the barrel. First thing they teach in fish school.
    You watched Mythbusters too?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    Heathener said:

    I can only think Penny is pitching solely for the Conservative membership with this performance. She’s bidding to be next leader. She’s not appealing to the middle ground of British politics.

    Daisy Cooper has been really good. Angela Rayner very understated, but that’s okay.

    Farage fairly dull and old hat - heard it all before - but that’s just my opinion obvs.

    Mordaunt has to hold her seat first, it was Labour in 1997
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Good evening

    I wonder how many have switched this off as it is wholly depressing and frankly Mordaunt v Rayner is embarrassing to watch

    I am amazed but Plaid doing best for me

    And, unlike most of us, you are in the fortunate position of being able to vote for them. If HYUFD can do it, so can you ...
    Indeed but I won't as I reject Independence
    Butd you don't like Llafur and the Tories are, you claim, beyond you, so who else is there? It's not like the old days when Liberals, sheep, slate and chapel went together.
    LibDems! Winning here!
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,708
    TimS said:

    Why is Farage getting two speeches for every topic?

    BBC being unusually mean to him tonight, I see.
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    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,367

    Pagan2 said:

    The losers tonight for me are Mordaunt, Rayner, and Farage

    But overall doesn't it make us all despair at the quality of our politicians

    We keep getting told they could make more in the private sector, I do wonder how many would if they didnt have mp on their cv and the ability to offer contacts. Not only that but reportedly 40% of mps are still unemployed a year after be de elected
    Honestly, I think standing up in front of the cameras and an audience of millions, answering questions to which there are no palatable answers, surrounded by six people hoping you will fall flat on your face and ready to heckle at any time... I think that's a tough gig and not many could do it that well.
    Agreed. Even the minnows - Denyer, ap Iorwerth, and Farage - have done okay. No major disasters, and a much better debate than the Sunak/Starmer one on Wednesday.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    Right, across to the football. What a waste of 90 minutes that was.
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    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,048
    Rayner's closing statement sounds a bit like one of those things hostages get told to read out. It just didn't sound like the way she would say it.
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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,562
    Next time, the broadcasters should refuse to put any debates on until the manifestos are out.
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    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,532
    Heathener said:

    What a terrible debate

    That's a fair summary 👍
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399
    "Angela Rayner says Keir has changed the Labour Party. She's right - she's changed them into the Conservative Party"

    lololz
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    Andy_JS said:

    "The right could win big in Europe – thanks to young people"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqqq952e3v6o

    Cultural non-translation to English-speaking countries.

    Even in Europe older people vote more for the right, especially the conservative centre right, just younger people are more likely to vote more for extremes, hard right as well as far left
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    OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,588
    rcs1000 said:

    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    Farage must have the easiest job on that stage. He does what he does well, but it must be shooting fish in a barrel.

    Never really understood that idiom. Unless the barrel is completely packed with fish, it would actually be quite hard to shoot one.
    Also, the drag of water is really high. If you fire a bullet into a pool, it rapidly loses forward momentum. All the fish need to do is hang out near the bottom of the barrel. First thing they teach in fish school.
    There was an excellent Mythbusters episode on this back in the day although I think it was couched in the movie trope of diving into water to hide from machine guns. Higher velocity bullets tend to break up on impact with water so provided you're a couple of feet down you're pretty safe. I think the exception was something like a .44 magnum, which has a high muzzle energy but a relatively low velocity due to the mass of the round and so got a bit further before losing its punch.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,639
    DM_Andy said:

    Penny: If you only pick some sorts of crime we've halved crime in the last 14 years.

    Tough on crime. Tough on the recording of crime.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774
    If an English politician stood on that stage and said, "Put England's interests first," people would be outraged.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,736
    Scotland on the scoreboard!
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399
    Penny literally has tears in her eyes saying that summary
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,545
    edited June 7
    Finland doing the decent thing and scoring for us, since there seemed little danger of us doing it ourselves.

    My local pub has offered a free shot for every goal Scotland scores at the Euros. Not sure if OGs count or not. Not sure they are feeling a need to insure the risk either.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    Farooq said:

    Good evening

    I wonder how many have switched this off as it is wholly depressing and frankly Mordaunt v Rayner is embarrassing to watch

    I am amazed but Plaid doing best for me

    All Conservatives end up voting for Plaid eventually :lol:
    First HYUFD, now you. Casino will be along before long, pushing leaflets through doors in Treforest, sporting a little daffodil lapel pin, greeting people with a cheery "arrite butt?"
    I voted for every Tory candidate, just there were 6 candidates to vote for and only 4 Tory candidates and Plaid were the only ones left to vote for and I always use every vote
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,247
    "nothing works". LDs and Farage in agreement.
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    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085
    Heathener said:

    boulay said:

    Heathener said:

    Penny Mordaunt is hectoring and constantly interrupting. Really hope she loses her seat. Ghastly woman.

    Less of the misogyny please, referring to her sex as a derogatory point is beneath you. You could have said “ghastly person” but ghastly woman is so loaded with some retro sexist memories of “to the manor born” and all that.
    Thanks for the mansplaining!
    You are welcome. When are we going on a date btw?
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,821
    Phil said:

    Phil said:

    DM_Andy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Farage’s stat on the number of people paying the 40p rate is remarkable if true.

    I'm now in the 40p rate and I'm completely fine with it, I earn a decent wedge and happy to pay my fair share. I believe the old line "From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs" is a good one to follow.
    Don’t forget that your employer is paying 13.8% NI on top of your salary for the privilege of employing you. Real income tax rates on employment are punishingly high in this country, especially for those making student loan payments (effectively a graduate tax), for whom the marginal rate (assuming a higher rate tax payer & including employers NI) is approx 63%. Even more if you’re paying off a post-grad loan as well.

    We have become a high tax country with shitty public services.
    and once again Farage picks out something he know will get votes - he is some performer
    The student loan thing is particularly galling since (as I understand things, I’m sure there was a recent article about this in the Economist or somewhere similar?) it would have been /cheaper/ just to pay out student grants. But no, we had to create a complicated loan scheme with all the hideously expensive bureaucracy to go with it instead.

    The student loan debacle is also one of the drivers behind the imminent collapse of the UK university sector because, despite a decade of inflation since the fee cap was put in place, the government has refused to increase it at all. So university fees are now the equivalent of £6500 in 2012. Unsurprisingly, things are starting to fall apart at the seams.
    I vaguely remember claims back in 2011 that universities would compete to offer the best value and that £6000 would likely become the standard level of student fees with only the top places charging the top fees.

    Instead they all decided to charge maximum fees with immediate effect.
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    PhilPhil Posts: 2,122
    DM_Andy said:

    Phil said:

    DM_Andy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Farage’s stat on the number of people paying the 40p rate is remarkable if true.

    I'm now in the 40p rate and I'm completely fine with it, I earn a decent wedge and happy to pay my fair share. I believe the old line "From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs" is a good one to follow.
    Don’t forget that your employer is paying 13.8% NI on top of your salary for the privilege of employing you. Real income tax rates on employment are punishingly high in this country, especially for those making student loan payments (effectively a graduate tax), for whom the marginal rate (assuming a higher rate tax payer & including employers NI) is approx 63%. Even more if you’re paying off a post-grad loan as well.

    We have become a high tax country with shitty public services.
    Since when does the employers NI reduce your disposable income?
    This is like asking “since when does income tax reduce your disposable income”. You cost your employer a pot of money per year & X% of that goes in taxes. Whether some portion of that X% appears on your P60 is irrelevant - it’s still an income tax.
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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,562
    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    Farage must have the easiest job on that stage. He does what he does well, but it must be shooting fish in a barrel.

    Never really understood that idiom. Unless the barrel is completely packed with fish, it would actually be quite hard to shoot one.
    Also, the drag of water is really high. If you fire a bullet into a pool, it rapidly loses forward momentum. All the fish need to do is hang out near the bottom of the barrel. First thing they teach in fish school.
    Just use a grenade round with delay initiation in the shotgun. Problem solved.
    Minigun. Brrrrt = fish paste.
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    MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,583
    edited June 7
    rcs1000 said:

    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    Farage must have the easiest job on that stage. He does what he does well, but it must be shooting fish in a barrel.

    Never really understood that idiom. Unless the barrel is completely packed with fish, it would actually be quite hard to shoot one.
    Also, the drag of water is really high. If you fire a bullet into a pool, it rapidly loses forward momentum. All the fish need to do is hang out near the bottom of the barrel. First thing they teach in fish school.
    Shooting fish in a barrel though. One of these might help:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/APS_underwater_rifle
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774
    Daisy Cooper could be the big winner from this debate.
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    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,873
    Sandpit said:

    Scotland on the scoreboard!

    Phew... And the Tories are not
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    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,204

    DM_Andy said:

    Phil said:

    DM_Andy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Farage’s stat on the number of people paying the 40p rate is remarkable if true.

    I'm now in the 40p rate and I'm completely fine with it, I earn a decent wedge and happy to pay my fair share. I believe the old line "From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs" is a good one to follow.
    Don’t forget that your employer is paying 13.8% NI on top of your salary for the privilege of employing you. Real income tax rates on employment are punishingly high in this country, especially for those making student loan payments (effectively a graduate tax), for whom the marginal rate (assuming a higher rate tax payer & including employers NI) is approx 63%. Even more if you’re paying off a post-grad loan as well.

    We have become a high tax country with shitty public services.
    Since when does the employers NI reduce your disposable income?
    Its part of the cost to the employer of employing someone.

    Get rid of employers NI and the gross pay could increase 13.8% without costing the employer any more.

    Now if eo mployers NI disappeared to oumorrow it would initially mean that the employer's cost would fall.

    But in the medium to long term wages would rise until most or all of the employers national insurance cost instead went on higher wages.
    Most likely they would go on higher profits initially and get swallowed up with inefficiencies in the longer term.

    And what other taxes would you raise to replace Employer's NI, or would you just prefer to see public services gutted further?
    The problem is all public services seem to get over inflation funding but deliver less. Some may have a reason but not all. For example in real terms the nhs has more funding and more staff that 5 years back....the output is still lower. Now you might argue demographic change and possible right for the NHS its a difficult measure. However the same is true of most public services, they get over inflation funding and produce less output and it can't always be demographics
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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,562
    Heathener said:

    Right, across to the football. What a waste of 90 minutes that was.

    Wait until you see the football….
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,170
    SNP, Green, Reform UK and (kinda) Plaid all saying Labour are going to win anyway, so vote for us.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    Rishi = shouty Tory
    Penny = shouty Tory
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    Andy_JS said:

    No RefUK candidate in Gavin Williamson's new seat of Stone, Great Wyrley & Penkridge.

    https://www.sstaffs.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2024-06/SOPN__NOP_Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge.pdf

    Makes this seat a possibility for the highest Tory share in the country, given that Reform probably would have done quite well if they'd stood.

    More shocking is UKIP are standing.

    They had 44 candidates last time.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    I knew the BBC would give Farage the last say, and hey presto of course they did.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    Andy_JS said:

    "nothing works". LDs and Farage in agreement.

    Well it is hard to argue.
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,170
    Mordaunt got least applause for her closing statement, followed by Plaid and RefUK
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    PhilPhil Posts: 2,122

    Phil said:

    Phil said:

    DM_Andy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Farage’s stat on the number of people paying the 40p rate is remarkable if true.

    I'm now in the 40p rate and I'm completely fine with it, I earn a decent wedge and happy to pay my fair share. I believe the old line "From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs" is a good one to follow.
    Don’t forget that your employer is paying 13.8% NI on top of your salary for the privilege of employing you. Real income tax rates on employment are punishingly high in this country, especially for those making student loan payments (effectively a graduate tax), for whom the marginal rate (assuming a higher rate tax payer & including employers NI) is approx 63%. Even more if you’re paying off a post-grad loan as well.

    We have become a high tax country with shitty public services.
    and once again Farage picks out something he know will get votes - he is some performer
    The student loan thing is particularly galling since (as I understand things, I’m sure there was a recent article about this in the Economist or somewhere similar?) it would have been /cheaper/ just to pay out student grants. But no, we had to create a complicated loan scheme with all the hideously expensive bureaucracy to go with it instead.

    The student loan debacle is also one of the drivers behind the imminent collapse of the UK university sector because, despite a decade of inflation since the fee cap was put in place, the government has refused to increase it at all. So university fees are now the equivalent of £6500 in 2012. Unsurprisingly, things are starting to fall apart at the seams.
    I vaguely remember claims back in 2011 that universities would compete to offer the best value and that £6000 would likely become the standard level of student fees with only the top places charging the top fees.

    Instead they all decided to charge maximum fees with immediate effect.
    & now they’re all charging £6.5k in real terms and universities are completely reliant on income from foreign students to keep the lights on. This is not a recipe for stability & economic growth.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,708
    DougSeal said:

    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    Farage must have the easiest job on that stage. He does what he does well, but it must be shooting fish in a barrel.

    Never really understood that idiom. Unless the barrel is completely packed with fish, it would actually be quite hard to shoot one.
    Also, the drag of water is really high. If you fire a bullet into a pool, it rapidly loses forward momentum. All the fish need to do is hang out near the bottom of the barrel. First thing they teach in fish school.
    Just use a grenade round with delay initiation in the shotgun. Problem solved.
    A pedant writes.

    In the past, after fish were caught, they were packaged to be sold in the market place. The fish were tightly packed into barrels filled with ice. If someone were to shoot into that barrel, they'd be guaranteed to hit one.

    I’d get out more but I’m always on here.
    Or, indeed, salt rather than ice. In which case the same would still apply.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,210

    Daisy Cooper could be the big winner from this debate.

    She was quite good to be fair
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    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,048
    That was quite fun, would be surprised if it changed anyone's mind but still probably better than the football.
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    darkagedarkage Posts: 5,017
    It is quite amazing/unbelievable to be observing the likely death of the conservative party.
    However I do think it will be followed a few elections later by the death of the labour party.
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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,562

    If an English politician stood on that stage and said, "Put England's interests first," people would be outraged.

    He would get votes though…
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    Farage won that in my view but Mordaunt and Rayner held their own too. Flynn was OK, Plaid and LD and Green leaders just soundbites and no real presence
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399
    Handshakes and giggles between Rayner and Mordaunt at the end. Performative arguing for the sake of it.
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,460
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    Farage must have the easiest job on that stage. He does what he does well, but it must be shooting fish in a barrel.

    Never really understood that idiom. Unless the barrel is completely packed with fish, it would actually be quite hard to shoot one.
    Also, the drag of water is really high. If you fire a bullet into a pool, it rapidly loses forward momentum. All the fish need to do is hang out near the bottom of the barrel. First thing they teach in fish school.
    You watched Mythbusters too?
    See Saving Private Ryan for factually incorrect version.
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    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,204

    Pagan2 said:

    The losers tonight for me are Mordaunt, Rayner, and Farage

    But overall doesn't it make us all despair at the quality of our politicians

    We keep getting told they could make more in the private sector, I do wonder how many would if they didnt have mp on their cv and the ability to offer contacts. Not only that but reportedly 40% of mps are still unemployed a year after be de elected
    Honestly, I think standing up in front of the cameras and an audience of millions, answering questions to which there are no palatable answers, surrounded by six people hoping you will fall flat on your face and ready to heckle at any time... I think that's a tough gig and not many could do it that well.
    That makes them in your view worth a big salary....paula vennels just did the same
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    GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,152
    Green - Dull
    Plaid - Windbag
    Con - Poor
    Lab - Poor
    LD - Middling
    SNP - Decent
    Reform - Decent
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,545
    Andy Robertson has just been superb. His crosses giving rise to both goals. Shankland wants to play against Germany. He wanted a goal so badly.
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    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 20,296
    DM_Andy said:

    Phil said:

    DM_Andy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Farage’s stat on the number of people paying the 40p rate is remarkable if true.

    I'm now in the 40p rate and I'm completely fine with it, I earn a decent wedge and happy to pay my fair share. I believe the old line "From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs" is a good one to follow.
    Don’t forget that your employer is paying 13.8% NI on top of your salary for the privilege of employing you. Real income tax rates on employment are punishingly high in this country, especially for those making student loan payments (effectively a graduate tax), for whom the marginal rate (assuming a higher rate tax payer & including employers NI) is approx 63%. Even more if you’re paying off a post-grad loan as well.

    We have become a high tax country with shitty public services.
    Since when does the employers NI reduce your disposable income?
    Since always. Its a direct tax on wages, which means firms pay lower wages as a result as they budget the tax as part of their costs.

    Tax on wages are far too high in this country.
    Tax on unearned incomes are far too low.

    Working for a living should never be taxed any higher than making a living through means other than working.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    Rishi = shouty Tory
    Penny = shouty Tory

    The government is in the doldrums, there's little record to run on, and morale is in the toilet - they are trying to inspire and rally people by being confident and aggressive.

    It's probably one of the only options open to them, but it comes with its own risks.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,736
    Sandpit said:

    Scotland on the scoreboard!

    And again! 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿
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    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,532
    I see we are losing in the football

    I blame Rishi 😈
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    OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,588
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    No RefUK candidate in Gavin Williamson's new seat of Stone, Great Wyrley & Penkridge.

    https://www.sstaffs.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2024-06/SOPN__NOP_Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge.pdf

    Makes this seat a possibility for the highest Tory share in the country, given that Reform probably would have done quite well if they'd stood.

    More shocking is UKIP are standing.

    They had 44 candidates last time.
    It would be genuinely funny if UKIP somehow crib all the reform vote in that seat.
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,672
    No major gotcha moments and given there were 7 on stage it could have been worse .

This discussion has been closed.