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Could the Conservatives Really Come Third? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,367
    Hair rankings:

    1. Denyer
    2. Flynn
    3. Cooper
    4. Rayner
    5. Farage
    6. ap Iorwerth
    7. Mordaunt
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774

    Penny Mordaunt is going for the Hillary Clinton vote (judging by her hair).

    "I'm not some little woman standing by my man like Tammy Wynette."

    image
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    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,854
    Daisy Cooper ended Sunak. RIP, he did not have a good run.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,639
    Our cup runneth over here in the Shipley constituency, with 10 candidates standing. These include Yorkshire Party, Workers Party
    Christian Peoples Alliance and the Social Democratic Party. But it is either Sir Philip (address in the Tatton Constituency) or Anna Dixon for Labour topping the poll.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246
    edited June 7

    Reform doing their bit to save Truss booster Simon Clarke giving him a free run in Middlesborough South and Cleveland

    HAs someone yet worked out a count of candidates?
    No, some councils probably haven't released yet, and it has to be done by news organisations / amateurs, there's no official list from government. So it takes time, probably 24 to 48 hours. I did it in 2015 and a few other years.
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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,562
    kle4 said:

    Farage must have the easiest job on that stage. He does what he does well, but it must be shooting fish in a barrel.

    Never really understood that idiom. Unless the barrel is completely packed with fish, it would actually be quite hard to shoot one.
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    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085
    kle4 said:

    Farage must have the easiest job on that stage. He does what he does well, but it must be shooting fish in a barrel.

    He will smash this because there are very few areas he can’t just tell the others that they are wrong because Reform have no history of running anything to throw back at them. He can be mr angry for everyone. If they try to hit him it will be nailing a jelly.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,363

    Reform are

    I find the D-day stuff a bit overblown to be honest.

    I'm astonished too. I don't know a single person who was glued to the D-Day coverage beforehand and yet it's got huge traction.

    I can only conclude that the electorate want to see Sunak slip on banana skins, and are rather enjoying it.

    There will be more of them. He doesn't have the political savviness or dexterity to avoid them.
    I live in Wales and I thought the attempt to create a 'gaffe' over Sunak's comments on football at the Welsh brewery ridiculous. I think I said so at the time? Not a single person I know mentioned it.

    However several people today were talking about him leaving D Day early? What in god's name was he thinking? Perhaps it would have been better if he'd come out and said he was sick and tired of the US and France taking ownership of the whole thing as if Britain only played a minor role. So he wouldn't be going to the international event in protest.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982

    Scott_xP said:

    We were 'joking' earlier about what acts of cruelty the Tories could perform to depress their vote further.

    I have now realised that keeping Sunak on the campaign trail is the single cruelest act I have witnessed on terrestrial TV.

    It would be an act of mercy if he were to withdraw

    Your compassion shines through as always.
    I have a soft spot for endangered species.

    Like Tory MPs
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    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085
    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    Farage must have the easiest job on that stage. He does what he does well, but it must be shooting fish in a barrel.

    Never really understood that idiom. Unless the barrel is completely packed with fish, it would actually be quite hard to shoot one.
    Not if you use a sawn-off.
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,671
    Feel a bit sorry for Penny . She was given a hospital pass . Will the Tory membership appreciate that she turned up .
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    Jonathan said:

    Reform are

    I find the D-day stuff a bit overblown to be honest.

    I'm astonished too. I don't know a single person who was glued to the D-Day coverage beforehand and yet it's got huge traction.

    I can only conclude that the electorate want to see Sunak slip on banana skins, and are rather enjoying it.

    There will be more of them. He doesn't have the political savviness or dexterity to avoid them.
    It’s not that he slipped on a banana skin, it’s that he turned down a golden opportunity to be prime ministerial and rise above the political campaign and somehow, inconceivably turned that into a catastrophic negative. A totally self created and unforced error. .
    He left a D-Day event a little bit early
    which no-one was paying much attention to anyway. Objectively this stuff doesn't really matter. Gordon Brown said Obama beach and didn't turn up to an EU treaty signing ceremony.

    It's OK, we all do it, but Sunak is simply in a place where no-one will cut him any slack and are willing him to fail, so he fails. Once the public have decided to go at you for anything they'll go at you for everything.

    He'd need great political skills to break that cycle, but unfortunately doesn't have them.
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    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,854
    biggles said:

    Oh God, we’re still on D-Day!

    This is a 7-way pile on. Mordaunt is as brave as a D-Day veteran to be there.

    Mordaunt is having a seven way pile on? What channel is it again?
    Beeb One. Better than the first Starmer v Sunak at this stage.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Andrea Jenkyns has issued a statement that is interesting in that she can’t work out whether to hug or hit Farage. She’s also deploying her usual deranged hyperbole.

    https://x.com/andreajenkyns/status/1799140972397318277?s=61

    She also has a point though.
    The statement would have been improved had she stuck to that one thing and not gone into lurid prognostications of the end of Britain.
    Remember, she's playing two games at once.
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,169
    Mishal Husain doing a good job, I think.

    Biggest round of applause so far for Flynn talking about no student fees in Scotland.

    Mordaunt not looking happy.

    Everyone… well, Cooper and Rayner, ducking questions of where the money comes from to pay for things.
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    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085
    biggles said:

    Oh God, we’re still on D-Day!

    This is a 7-way pile on. Mordaunt is as brave as a D-Day veteran to be there.

    Mordaunt is having a seven way pile on? What channel is it again?
    Only fans #in for a penny/in for a pounding
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    boulay said:

    kle4 said:

    Farage must have the easiest job on that stage. He does what he does well, but it must be shooting fish in a barrel.

    He will smash this because there are very few areas he can’t just tell the others that they are wrong because Reform have no history of running anything to throw back at them. He can be mr angry for everyone. If they try to hit him it will be nailing a jelly.
    It really comes down to whether the soft Tory vote will return to them out of worry the party will totally collapse, or whether they are angry enough to go with their hearts and vote for the array of options saying how bad the government has been.

    It's not looking good for the party.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,146

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Andrea Jenkyns has issued a statement that is interesting in that she can’t work out whether to hug or hit Farage. She’s also deploying her usual deranged hyperbole.

    https://x.com/andreajenkyns/status/1799140972397318277?s=61

    She also has a point though.
    The statement would have been improved had she stuck to that one thing and not gone into lurid prognostications of the end of Britain.
    Remember, she's playing two games at once.
    And losing both of them.
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    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,048
    Rayner leveraging her old job as a care worker to answer well on improving public services. But Flynn skewered her badly with the "With what money are you going to do that with".
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    BobSykes said:

    Any impartial casual viewer watching this must be thinking christ what a bunch of non entities we have in British politics these days.

    Is this the best the 7 leading parties can put up?

    Farage looks the best and that really demonstrates my point...

    Ah, Bob Sykes!! Terrific.

    @JohnO John?! He's here.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 20,483
    Catching up with Question Time/

    Mark Harper comes across as an escapee from the Marx Brothers' Shyster, Flywheel & Shyster - the only blow I heard him land was on Wales, and Shabana Mahmood as gabbling and superficial.

    No view on the others yet.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,146
    nico679 said:

    Feel a bit sorry for Penny . She was given a hospital pass . Will the Tory membership appreciate that she turned up .

    A significant chunk of the Tory membership love her so yes.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399
    I'm looking forward to the ANME hustings. There is a Tory strategy at play here. Is Ross going to try and talk over the top of everyone else and tell lie after lie after lie? Will get called out for it.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    boulay said:



    I’m looking forward to hearing more about these nucular weapons.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nth4RqqmQZ4&t=1s
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    ToryJim said:

    nico679 said:

    Feel a bit sorry for Penny . She was given a hospital pass . Will the Tory membership appreciate that she turned up .

    A significant chunk of the Tory membership love her so yes.
    She looks OK :)
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    GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,152
    The Plaid Guy is dull.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,247

    Jonathan said:

    Reform are

    I find the D-day stuff a bit overblown to be honest.

    I'm astonished too. I don't know a single person who was glued to the D-Day coverage beforehand and yet it's got huge traction.

    I can only conclude that the electorate want to see Sunak slip on banana skins, and are rather enjoying it.

    There will be more of them. He doesn't have the political savviness or dexterity to avoid them.
    It’s not that he slipped on a banana skin, it’s that he turned down a golden opportunity to be prime ministerial and rise above the political campaign and somehow, inconceivably turned that into a catastrophic negative. A totally self created and unforced error. .
    He left a D-Day event a little bit early
    which no-one was paying much attention to anyway. Objectively this stuff doesn't really matter. Gordon Brown said Obama beach and didn't turn up to an EU treaty signing ceremony.

    It's OK, we all do it, but Sunak is simply in a place where no-one will cut him any slack and are willing him to fail, so he fails. Once the public have decided to go at you for anything they'll go at you for everything.

    He'd need great political skills to break that cycle, but unfortunately doesn't have them.
    He turned a plus into a minus. He did it himself and has no one else to blame. If a Labour pm had done this they would have been destroyed. Sunak has escaped lightly.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    Jonathan said:

    Reform are

    I find the D-day stuff a bit overblown to be honest.

    I'm astonished too. I don't know a single person who was glued to the D-Day coverage beforehand and yet it's got huge traction.

    I can only conclude that the electorate want to see Sunak slip on banana skins, and are rather enjoying it.

    There will be more of them. He doesn't have the political savviness or dexterity to avoid them.
    It’s not that he slipped on a banana skin, it’s that he turned down a golden opportunity to be prime ministerial and rise above the political campaign and somehow, inconceivably turned that into a catastrophic negative. A totally self created and unforced error. .
    He left a D-Day event a little bit early
    which no-one was paying much attention to anyway. Objectively this stuff doesn't really matter. Gordon Brown said Obama beach and didn't turn up to an EU treaty signing ceremony.

    It's OK, we all do it, but Sunak is simply in a place where no-one will cut him any slack and are willing him to fail, so he fails. Once the public have decided to go at you for anything they'll go at you for everything.

    He'd need great political skills to break that cycle, but unfortunately doesn't have them.
    Yep. Many will feel he deserves to lose on the merits, but the scale will probably be greater than even he deserves, because nothing will seem to go right, everything will look terrible. We see it in that he is being hammered for not being on the stage tonight, and would have been hammered if he did.
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    DoubleDutchDoubleDutch Posts: 161

    I might turn over to the football soon...

    What I've done. 5 minutes of the debate was enough. Footy more interesting!
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    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,048
    An attempt by Mordaunt to turn a question on improving the NHS into a call out for Portsmouth and an attack on Rayner on Trident. Don't think she landed it, but it took guts to try it.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915

    Jonathan said:

    Reform are

    I find the D-day stuff a bit overblown to be honest.

    I'm astonished too. I don't know a single person who was glued to the D-Day coverage beforehand and yet it's got huge traction.

    I can only conclude that the electorate want to see Sunak slip on banana skins, and are rather enjoying it.

    There will be more of them. He doesn't have the political savviness or dexterity to avoid them.
    It’s not that he slipped on a banana skin, it’s that he turned down a golden opportunity to be prime ministerial and rise above the political campaign and somehow, inconceivably turned that into a catastrophic negative. A totally self created and unforced error. .
    He left a D-Day event a little bit early
    which no-one was paying much attention to anyway. Objectively this stuff doesn't really matter. Gordon Brown said Obama beach and didn't turn up to an EU treaty signing ceremony.

    It's OK, we all do it, but Sunak is simply in a place where no-one will cut him any slack and are willing him to fail, so he fails. Once the public have decided to go at you for anything they'll go at you for everything.

    He'd need great political skills to break that cycle, but unfortunately doesn't have them.
    Be honest Casino, had Starmer left at lunchtime while Sunak stayed on, would you be cutting him some slack?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    Scott_xP said:

    @georgeeaton

    Rishi Sunak is going to be the big loser from this debate and he's not even there.

    Typo in his first name there mate.

    You better fix that.
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    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,508

    The Plaid Guy is dull.

    It will be a hunting Plaid as opposed to a dress Plaid.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    Farage must have the easiest job on that stage. He does what he does well, but it must be shooting fish in a barrel.

    Never really understood that idiom. Unless the barrel is completely packed with fish, it would actually be quite hard to shoot one.
    Not if they are dead fish.
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    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,048
    Farage - we should be more like France
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,169
    Farage bravely arguing we should dissolve the NHS and go with the French system.
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,671
    Farage making a good point re France . Unfortunately the British public are terrified of any changes .
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    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085
    Is Daisy cooper on speed? Seriously fast talker.
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    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,367
    edited June 7
    DM_Andy said:

    Farage - we should be more like France

    A decent argument, but he ruined it by talking about how 'France funds the NHS'...
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106

    Jonathan said:

    Reform are

    I find the D-day stuff a bit overblown to be honest.

    I'm astonished too. I don't know a single person who was glued to the D-Day coverage beforehand and yet it's got huge traction.

    I can only conclude that the electorate want to see Sunak slip on banana skins, and are rather enjoying it.

    There will be more of them. He doesn't have the political savviness or dexterity to avoid them.
    It’s not that he slipped on a banana skin, it’s that he turned down a golden opportunity to be prime ministerial and rise above the political campaign and somehow, inconceivably turned that into a catastrophic negative. A totally self created and unforced error. .
    He left a D-Day event a little bit early
    which no-one was paying much attention to anyway. Objectively this stuff doesn't really matter. Gordon Brown said Obama beach and didn't turn up to an EU treaty signing ceremony.

    It's OK, we all do it, but Sunak is simply in a place where no-one will cut him any slack and are willing him to fail, so he fails. Once the public have decided to go at you for anything they'll go at you for everything.

    He'd need great political skills to break that cycle, but unfortunately doesn't have them.
    Be honest Casino, had Starmer left at lunchtime while Sunak stayed on, would you be cutting him some slack?
    Probably not, and I didn't Gordon Brown - we all have a side, let's be honest.

    But, politically, doesn't mean I'm wrong.
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    BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,451
    edited June 7
    In the largest town in traditionally Tory East Wiltshire (it's a new seat, the old (Michael Ancram) Devizes seat, but without Devizes and with a bit more of the army on Salisbury Plain), Marlborough, I have seen one big "Winning Here" sign, outside the LibDem candidate's house, and two Labour posters in windows

    I have not seen a single thing promoting the Tories or Danny Kruger, even at the two Tory town councillor ladies' houses on my route. They did have a stall at the market last week, but it seemed rather quiet

    The Lib Dem candidate, David Kinnaird, is ex-Army. He might well be able to win over the new Salisbury Plain bits of the constituency. I haven't talked to enough people to elevate my knowledge above anecdata, but I haven't spoken to anyone who has met him who wasn't impressed by him

    The consensus in my little focus group is that he'd be a fine representative for the constituency in Parliament

    I don't think it's likely that he'll win, but he might be value. What are the odds for East Wiltshire (or is it Wiltshire East)?

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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,169

    Farage bravely arguing we should dissolve the NHS and go with the French system.

    I think Farage’s answer would’ve looked worse for him if the others hadn’t interrupted.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    Farage bravely arguing we should dissolve the NHS and go with the French system.

    And though the Tories and their voters are generally not opposed to the NHS, I doubt they win votes back from Reform by pointing that out. Farage pleases them in others ways.
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    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085
    edited June 7
    This is what happens when you pick Rishi in goal.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399
    Penny looks bored. I asked what that awful look on her face was. Its boredom.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    In the largest town in traditionally Tory East Wiltshire (it's a new seat, the old (Michael Ancram) Devizes seat, but without Devizes and with a bit more of the army on Salisbury Plain), Marlborough, I have seen one big "Winning Here" sign, outside the LibDem candidate's house, and two Labour posters in windows

    I have not seen a single thing promoting the Tories or Danny Kruger, even at the two Tory town councillor ladies' houses on my route. They did have a stall at the market last week, but it seemed rather quiet

    The Lib Dem candidate, David Kinnaird, is ex-Army. He might well be able to win over the new Salisbury Plain bits of the constituency. I haven't talked to enough people to elevate my knowledge above anecdata, but I haven't spoken to anyone who has met met him who wasn't impressed by him

    The consensus in my little focus group is that he'd be a fine representative for the constituency in Parliament

    I don't think it's likely that he'll win, but he might be value. What are the odds for East Wiltshire (or is it Wiltshire East)?

    Pretty sure we've got East Wiltshire, SW Wiltshire, and Salisbury covered on here, let's see if we can get posters to cover all Wiltshire.
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    DoubleDutchDoubleDutch Posts: 161
    England's defensive weaknesses exposed right there
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,248

    BobSykes said:

    Any impartial casual viewer watching this must be thinking christ what a bunch of non entities we have in British politics these days.

    Is this the best the 7 leading parties can put up?

    Farage looks the best and that really demonstrates my point...

    Ah, Bob Sykes!! Terrific.

    @JohnO John?! He's here.
    And as optimistic about Tory prospects as he was 14 years ago…..with rather more justification this time. At least, he’s putting his X in the blue box. Sound chap.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    Jonathan said:

    Reform are

    I find the D-day stuff a bit overblown to be honest.

    I'm astonished too. I don't know a single person who was glued to the D-Day coverage beforehand and yet it's got huge traction.

    I can only conclude that the electorate want to see Sunak slip on banana skins, and are rather enjoying it.

    There will be more of them. He doesn't have the political savviness or dexterity to avoid them.
    It’s not that he slipped on a banana skin, it’s that he turned down a golden opportunity to be prime ministerial and rise above the political campaign and somehow, inconceivably turned that into a catastrophic negative. A totally self created and unforced error. .
    He left a D-Day event a little bit early
    which no-one was paying much attention to anyway. Objectively this stuff doesn't really matter. Gordon Brown said Obama beach and didn't turn up to an EU treaty signing ceremony.

    It's OK, we all do it, but Sunak is simply in a place where no-one will cut him any slack and are willing him to fail, so he fails. Once the public have decided to go at you for anything they'll go at you for everything.

    He'd need great political skills to break that cycle, but unfortunately doesn't have them.
    Be honest Casino, had Starmer left at lunchtime while Sunak stayed on, would you be cutting him some slack?
    It's a fair test to apply in political situations, but on the other hand I've cut Sunak slack for it, and I'm not batting for him over Starmer.
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    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085
    boulay said:

    This is what happens when you pick Rishi in goal.

    Never leave Normandy or your goal line too early.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    England's defensive weaknesses exposed right there

    Yes, but they are the political parties we have to defend us, so what can we do?

    Oh, right, you meant something else.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,247
    So Farage wants to destroy the NHS and have us align with Europe. If the Tories can’t make him pay for that they really aren’t trying.
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    BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,451
    kle4 said:

    In the largest town in traditionally Tory East Wiltshire (it's a new seat, the old (Michael Ancram) Devizes seat, but without Devizes and with a bit more of the army on Salisbury Plain), Marlborough, I have seen one big "Winning Here" sign, outside the LibDem candidate's house, and two Labour posters in windows

    I have not seen a single thing promoting the Tories or Danny Kruger, even at the two Tory town councillor ladies' houses on my route. They did have a stall at the market last week, but it seemed rather quiet

    The Lib Dem candidate, David Kinnaird, is ex-Army. He might well be able to win over the new Salisbury Plain bits of the constituency. I haven't talked to enough people to elevate my knowledge above anecdata, but I haven't spoken to anyone who has met met him who wasn't impressed by him

    The consensus in my little focus group is that he'd be a fine representative for the constituency in Parliament

    I don't think it's likely that he'll win, but he might be value. What are the odds for East Wiltshire (or is it Wiltshire East)?

    Pretty sure we've got East Wiltshire, SW Wiltshire, and Salisbury covered on here, let's see if we can get posters to cover all Wiltshire.
    @Malmesbury ?
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    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,532
    Not much support for Nigel among the audience...
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    edited June 7

    kle4 said:

    In the largest town in traditionally Tory East Wiltshire (it's a new seat, the old (Michael Ancram) Devizes seat, but without Devizes and with a bit more of the army on Salisbury Plain), Marlborough, I have seen one big "Winning Here" sign, outside the LibDem candidate's house, and two Labour posters in windows

    I have not seen a single thing promoting the Tories or Danny Kruger, even at the two Tory town councillor ladies' houses on my route. They did have a stall at the market last week, but it seemed rather quiet

    The Lib Dem candidate, David Kinnaird, is ex-Army. He might well be able to win over the new Salisbury Plain bits of the constituency. I haven't talked to enough people to elevate my knowledge above anecdata, but I haven't spoken to anyone who has met met him who wasn't impressed by him

    The consensus in my little focus group is that he'd be a fine representative for the constituency in Parliament

    I don't think it's likely that he'll win, but he might be value. What are the odds for East Wiltshire (or is it Wiltshire East)?

    Pretty sure we've got East Wiltshire, SW Wiltshire, and Salisbury covered on here, let's see if we can get posters to cover all Wiltshire.
    Malmesbury ?
    Wasnt sure if they are actually based there, RochdalePioneers no longer on the ball in Rochdale after all!
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    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,367

    Penny looks bored. I asked what that awful look on her face was. Its boredom.

    She's noticeably shifting weight from foot to foot whenever we see a wide shot - she clearly doesn't want to be there.

    It's probably her last big event as an MP, but it seems she's checked out already.
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    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,048
    Farage "we to get net migration down". It was your idea to make it harder for our people to move elsewhere.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    kle4 said:

    In the largest town in traditionally Tory East Wiltshire (it's a new seat, the old (Michael Ancram) Devizes seat, but without Devizes and with a bit more of the army on Salisbury Plain), Marlborough, I have seen one big "Winning Here" sign, outside the LibDem candidate's house, and two Labour posters in windows

    I have not seen a single thing promoting the Tories or Danny Kruger, even at the two Tory town councillor ladies' houses on my route. They did have a stall at the market last week, but it seemed rather quiet

    The Lib Dem candidate, David Kinnaird, is ex-Army. He might well be able to win over the new Salisbury Plain bits of the constituency. I haven't talked to enough people to elevate my knowledge above anecdata, but I haven't spoken to anyone who has met met him who wasn't impressed by him

    The consensus in my little focus group is that he'd be a fine representative for the constituency in Parliament

    I don't think it's likely that he'll win, but he might be value. What are the odds for East Wiltshire (or is it Wiltshire East)?

    Pretty sure we've got East Wiltshire, SW Wiltshire, and Salisbury covered on here, let's see if we can get posters to cover all Wiltshire.
    Just outside: North Dorset. Similar territory (but slightly better obvs 😉)
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    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,854
    Penny Mordaunt is sinking fast.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    kle4 said:

    In the largest town in traditionally Tory East Wiltshire (it's a new seat, the old (Michael Ancram) Devizes seat, but without Devizes and with a bit more of the army on Salisbury Plain), Marlborough, I have seen one big "Winning Here" sign, outside the LibDem candidate's house, and two Labour posters in windows

    I have not seen a single thing promoting the Tories or Danny Kruger, even at the two Tory town councillor ladies' houses on my route. They did have a stall at the market last week, but it seemed rather quiet

    The Lib Dem candidate, David Kinnaird, is ex-Army. He might well be able to win over the new Salisbury Plain bits of the constituency. I haven't talked to enough people to elevate my knowledge above anecdata, but I haven't spoken to anyone who has met met him who wasn't impressed by him

    The consensus in my little focus group is that he'd be a fine representative for the constituency in Parliament

    I don't think it's likely that he'll win, but he might be value. What are the odds for East Wiltshire (or is it Wiltshire East)?

    Pretty sure we've got East Wiltshire, SW Wiltshire, and Salisbury covered on here, let's see if we can get posters to cover all Wiltshire.
    Just outside: North Dorset. Similar territory (but slightly better obvs 😉)
    Hey! That's...true.
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    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,048
    Penny completely botching the immigration question.
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,169
    Farage says it’s how healthcare is funded that makes the French system better than the UK.

    ONS says…

    “In 2017, the UK spent £2,989 per person on healthcare, which was around the median for members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development: OECD (£2,913 per person).

    “However, of the G7 group of large, developed economies, UK healthcare spending per person was the second-lowest, with the highest spenders being France (£3,737), Germany (£4,432) and the United States (£7,736).”

    UK £2989 per person, France £3737 per person.
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    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,854
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    In the largest town in traditionally Tory East Wiltshire (it's a new seat, the old (Michael Ancram) Devizes seat, but without Devizes and with a bit more of the army on Salisbury Plain), Marlborough, I have seen one big "Winning Here" sign, outside the LibDem candidate's house, and two Labour posters in windows

    I have not seen a single thing promoting the Tories or Danny Kruger, even at the two Tory town councillor ladies' houses on my route. They did have a stall at the market last week, but it seemed rather quiet

    The Lib Dem candidate, David Kinnaird, is ex-Army. He might well be able to win over the new Salisbury Plain bits of the constituency. I haven't talked to enough people to elevate my knowledge above anecdata, but I haven't spoken to anyone who has met met him who wasn't impressed by him

    The consensus in my little focus group is that he'd be a fine representative for the constituency in Parliament

    I don't think it's likely that he'll win, but he might be value. What are the odds for East Wiltshire (or is it Wiltshire East)?

    Pretty sure we've got East Wiltshire, SW Wiltshire, and Salisbury covered on here, let's see if we can get posters to cover all Wiltshire.
    Malmesbury ?
    Wasnt sure if they are actually based there, RochdalePioneers no longer on the ball in Rochdale after all!
    Don't worry, I've now got Rochdale covered.
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    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085

    Not much support for Nigel among the audience...

    To be fair, and this is just unscientific feels, lefties seem much more into clapping and whooping for their side.its the inner righteousness that takes over their bodies.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,457
    DM_Andy said:

    Farage "we to get net migration down". It was your idea to make it harder for our people to move elsewhere.

    Emigration higher now than in 2016.
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    GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,152
    London audience seem to be massively left wing as they are clapping Plaid Guy's call for open borders
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    Not much support for Nigel among the audience...

    I'm betting the snapshot at the end has him listed as 'winning' or performing best. The Reform audience plus much of the Tory audience will carry him through. Expect Guido and the Telegraph to burst in excitement and talk more about crossover with Reform.
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    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,048
    Penny "[Labour] have had 14 years to work out a plan"
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,169
    I think Farage is heckling too much. He started well, but I don’t think it looks great to be butting in this much.

    Mordaunt taken every opportunity to attack Labour.
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    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,873

    Not much support for Nigel among the audience...

    Perhaps Reform Ltd may indeed be more Astroturf than real...
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    BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,451
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    In the largest town in traditionally Tory East Wiltshire (it's a new seat, the old (Michael Ancram) Devizes seat, but without Devizes and with a bit more of the army on Salisbury Plain), Marlborough, I have seen one big "Winning Here" sign, outside the LibDem candidate's house, and two Labour posters in windows

    I have not seen a single thing promoting the Tories or Danny Kruger, even at the two Tory town councillor ladies' houses on my route. They did have a stall at the market last week, but it seemed rather quiet

    The Lib Dem candidate, David Kinnaird, is ex-Army. He might well be able to win over the new Salisbury Plain bits of the constituency. I haven't talked to enough people to elevate my knowledge above anecdata, but I haven't spoken to anyone who has met met him who wasn't impressed by him

    The consensus in my little focus group is that he'd be a fine representative for the constituency in Parliament

    I don't think it's likely that he'll win, but he might be value. What are the odds for East Wiltshire (or is it Wiltshire East)?

    Pretty sure we've got East Wiltshire, SW Wiltshire, and Salisbury covered on here, let's see if we can get posters to cover all Wiltshire.
    Malmesbury ?
    Wasnt sure if they are actually based there, RochdalePioneers no longer on the ball in Rochdale after all!
    It's got to be a better chance than anyone admitting that they live in Swindon!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    I think Farage is heckling too much. He started well, but I don’t think it looks great to be butting in this much.

    Mordaunt taken every opportunity to attack Labour.

    All about the video clips you can generate. Both will get a few, but positive spin from the press would help sell the clips, which is where she might struggle.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,770

    Farage says it’s how healthcare is funded that makes the French system better than the UK.

    ONS says…

    “In 2017, the UK spent £2,989 per person on healthcare, which was around the median for members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development: OECD (£2,913 per person).

    “However, of the G7 group of large, developed economies, UK healthcare spending per person was the second-lowest, with the highest spenders being France (£3,737), Germany (£4,432) and the United States (£7,736).”

    UK £2989 per person, France £3737 per person.

    Well by your argument then US health care should be far and away gthe best in the world. But of course it isn't.

    Farage is right (not often I wuld say that these days). The way French Health care is paid for and provided is miles better than the archaic NHS system.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    JohnO said:

    BobSykes said:

    Any impartial casual viewer watching this must be thinking christ what a bunch of non entities we have in British politics these days.

    Is this the best the 7 leading parties can put up?

    Farage looks the best and that really demonstrates my point...

    Ah, Bob Sykes!! Terrific.

    @JohnO John?! He's here.
    And as optimistic about Tory prospects as he was 14 years ago…..with rather more justification this time. At least, he’s putting his X in the blue box. Sound chap.
    True, and far better than some who claim to be Tories and will do anything but.

    Bravo.
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    AbandonedHopeAbandonedHope Posts: 136
    Putting politics to one side for a moment… Mishal Hussain has done/is doing a much better job of moderating thus far.

    It may well be the case that the audience have been prepared better. It may well be the case that the leaders have agreed to behave themselves. But still… Hussain is excellent so far.
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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,562

    Farage says it’s how healthcare is funded that makes the French system better than the UK.

    ONS says…

    “In 2017, the UK spent £2,989 per person on healthcare, which was around the median for members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development: OECD (£2,913 per person).

    “However, of the G7 group of large, developed economies, UK healthcare spending per person was the second-lowest, with the highest spenders being France (£3,737), Germany (£4,432) and the United States (£7,736).”

    UK £2989 per person, France £3737 per person.

    Well by your argument then US health care should be far and away gthe best in the world. But of course it isn't.

    Farage is right (not often I wuld say that these days). The way French Health care is paid for and provided is miles better than the archaic NHS system.
    I think there’s a sensible first step to be taken, where we could hypothecate NHS funding as a specific tax, and then start to play around with differential charging levels and funding models over time.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032
    Anybody landed a blow yet? Or is it just Iceland?
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,169

    Farage says it’s how healthcare is funded that makes the French system better than the UK.

    ONS says…

    “In 2017, the UK spent £2,989 per person on healthcare, which was around the median for members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development: OECD (£2,913 per person).

    “However, of the G7 group of large, developed economies, UK healthcare spending per person was the second-lowest, with the highest spenders being France (£3,737), Germany (£4,432) and the United States (£7,736).”

    UK £2989 per person, France £3737 per person.

    Well by your argument then US health care should be far and away gthe best in the world. But of course it isn't.

    Farage is right (not often I wuld say that these days). The way French Health care is paid for and provided is miles better than the archaic NHS system.
    The US is a massive outlier, but, yes, the US shows that how you fund healthcare does matter. As Cooper said in the debate, the King’s Fund have said that the different ways *publicly funded* healthcare are organised don’t make much difference.
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    GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,152
    TimS said:

    Am I just biased in thinking Daisy Cooper is winning this so far?

    She's talking too fast and it just washes over you.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    DM_Andy said:

    Penny "[Labour] have had 14 years to work out a plan"

    That was awful!

    The Plaid man is the worst unfortunately. But he’s doing a good job encouraging Tory wavelets to vote Labour.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774
    I think there should be a threshold for the number of candidates a party is fielding before being entitled to a spot in a debate like this. Plaid Cymru and the SNP shouldn't be there.
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    DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 503
    Sandpit said:

    Reform is currently 5.25-7.25 on the spreads.

    That's a great sell with someone else's money.

    I'm hoping though we go crazy and it gets up to 20 or something so the risk of selling it is worth it with [b]my[/b] money.

    That’s a dangerous spread bet to take the under. If it goes wrong, it could go very horribly wrong.

    (And you are betting to some extent on the Tories not completely imploding in the next four weeks).
    I agree, that's why I'm not doing it. But I would if I were managing someone else's money :smile: (insert something about loss aversion and utility functions here).

    If it gets close to 20 bit calculus very much changes.

    Anybody landed a blow yet? Or is it just Iceland?

    No one is covering themselves in glory, put it that way....
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    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,739
    edited June 7
    It looks tonight more obvious than ever what are some of the roots of Farage's appeal.
    He's very good at giving the impression of spontaneous, righteous anger about to boil over, but simultaneously in a slightly laconic, ironic and indirect way that appeals to English sensibilities. Someone coming to him for the first time might not believe his views were in fact unchanging for decades, or that the impressions of everyman righteousness on the one hand, like a small shopowner who's suddenly had enough, rather than a child of privilege, and on the other hand spontaneity, aren't particularly accurate.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399
    .
    TimS said:

    Am I just biased in thinking Daisy Cooper is winning this so far?

    I think so. Hasn't put a foot wrong in her answers, she just needs to remember to BREATHE. Then again, I have that same problem...
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915

    In the largest town in traditionally Tory East Wiltshire (it's a new seat, the old (Michael Ancram) Devizes seat, but without Devizes and with a bit more of the army on Salisbury Plain), Marlborough, I have seen one big "Winning Here" sign, outside the LibDem candidate's house, and two Labour posters in windows

    I have not seen a single thing promoting the Tories or Danny Kruger, even at the two Tory town councillor ladies' houses on my route. They did have a stall at the market last week, but it seemed rather quiet

    The Lib Dem candidate, David Kinnaird, is ex-Army. He might well be able to win over the new Salisbury Plain bits of the constituency. I haven't talked to enough people to elevate my knowledge above anecdata, but I haven't spoken to anyone who has met him who wasn't impressed by him

    The consensus in my little focus group is that he'd be a fine representative for the constituency in Parliament

    I don't think it's likely that he'll win, but he might be value. What are the odds for East Wiltshire (or is it Wiltshire East)?

    The LibDem candidate in North Dorset, Gary Jackson, is also ex-army. He'll be getting my vote. Labour don't seem to be putting much effort in here - the candidate is from outside - it looks like they are tacitly leaving it to the LDs to challenge.

    I suspect Simon Hoare will hang on for the Conservatives as this is about their 16th safest seat - at least he's a sensible one-nation Tory. Even he must feel under threat though.
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    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,854
    Has Mordaunt had voice coaching? Her voice is weirdly mid Atlantic.
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,169
    TimS said:

    Am I just biased in thinking Daisy Cooper is winning this so far?

    I am also biased towards Cooper… I don’t think she’s winning. I think they’ve all been fairly good so far, they’ve all gotten over the points they want to get over. Except Mordaunt.
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    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,048
    TimS said:

    Am I just biased in thinking Daisy Cooper is winning this so far?

    She's playing on easy mode. SNP, PC and Con all focusing attacks on Lab, Ref and Lab going for Con. And no-one cares that the Lib Dems make billions of unfunded promises because everyone knows they aren't going to win. But yes, Cooper is doing well, can't be doing her future leadership chances any harm.

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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915

    .

    TimS said:

    Am I just biased in thinking Daisy Cooper is winning this so far?

    I think so. Hasn't put a foot wrong in her answers, she just needs to remember to BREATHE. Then again, I have that same problem...
    Bias or breathing?
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    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    edited June 7

    TimS said:

    Am I just biased in thinking Daisy Cooper is winning this so far?

    She's talking too fast and it just washes over you.
    Maybe a bit, but she’s articulating things well.
    Angela is doing the pace well: slower than the others, more measured. Mordaunt trying but just can’t manage.
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    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,367

    I think Farage is heckling too much. He started well, but I don’t think it looks great to be butting in this much.

    Mordaunt taken every opportunity to attack Labour.

    Her approach would work better against Starmer, but Rayner's good at rubbishing her. Similarly, Mordaunt's giving serious side-eye whenever Rayner's speaking.

    I'd love to see a proper head-to-head debate between these two, without the dwarves interrupting.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,770
    DM_Andy said:

    Farage "we to get net migration down". It was your idea to make it harder for our people to move elsewhere.

    Emigration is higher now than it ever was prior to the Brexit vote so your point is simply wrong.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399
    Penny has lost it. Wowsers!
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,820

    Farage says it’s how healthcare is funded that makes the French system better than the UK.

    ONS says…

    “In 2017, the UK spent £2,989 per person on healthcare, which was around the median for members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development: OECD (£2,913 per person).

    “However, of the G7 group of large, developed economies, UK healthcare spending per person was the second-lowest, with the highest spenders being France (£3,737), Germany (£4,432) and the United States (£7,736).”

    UK £2989 per person, France £3737 per person.

    Compare life expectancies in those countries if you want proof of how the law of diminishing marginal returns applies to health spending.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032
    edited June 7
    "No one is covering themselves in glory, put it that way...."

    Neither is Harry Kane....
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    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,450
    Bit of a problem having equal balance between 7 parties when 5 or 6 of them think the same thing about everything
This discussion has been closed.