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Could the Conservatives Really Come Third? – politicalbetting.com

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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    edited June 7

    Everything’s going so well…

    The launch of Labour’s new Kemptown candidate Chris Ward’s campaign was interrupted this afternoon by anti-Israel demonstrators.

    About a dozen protesters attended the meeting at St George’s Church in Kemptown Village.

    As one speaker, Caroline O’Reilly, harangued Mr Ward and senior Labour politician Chris Bryant, others clapped and clicked their fingers in approval.

    After about five minutes, Mr Ward, Mr Bryant and other party members left the church……


    “I don’t think you realise the depth of unhappiness that it’s caused. Lloyd was elected by us. You have not been elected by us.

    “From what my research says, you are not the person who will represent my interests and thsoe of my children and grandchilden, and …”

    Chris Bryant then tried to speak, telling her “no more ands”.

    Mrs O’Reilly shouted back: “Don’t tell me no more ands. I’m just as entitled to my opinion.

    https://www.brightonandhovenews.org/2024/06/07/gaza-campaigners-disrupt-new-kemptown-labour-candidates-campaign-launch/#google_vignette

    Quite right Carlotta, the Labour campaign is really on the ropes. It's all anyone is talking about.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,146
    Bloody hell Boris has let himself go…

    https://x.com/dailymailuk/status/1799132308160782853?s=61
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    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085

    Everything’s going so well…

    The launch of Labour’s new Kemptown candidate Chris Ward’s campaign was interrupted this afternoon by anti-Israel demonstrators.

    About a dozen protesters attended the meeting at St George’s Church in Kemptown Village.

    As one speaker, Caroline O’Reilly, harangued Mr Ward and senior Labour politician Chris Bryant, others clapped and clicked their fingers in approval.

    After about five minutes, Mr Ward, Mr Bryant and other party members left the church……


    “I don’t think you realise the depth of unhappiness that it’s caused. Lloyd was elected by us. You have not been elected by us.

    “From what my research says, you are not the person who will represent my interests and thsoe of my children and grandchilden, and …”

    Chris Bryant then tried to speak, telling her “no more ands”.

    Mrs O’Reilly shouted back: “Don’t tell me no more ands. I’m just as entitled to my opinion.

    https://www.brightonandhovenews.org/2024/06/07/gaza-campaigners-disrupt-new-kemptown-labour-candidates-campaign-launch/#google_vignette

    Quite right Carlotta, the Labour campaign is really on the ropes. It's all anyone is talking about.
    Rishi “I’ve got them just where I want them, behind me with my pants pulled down.”
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    DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 503
    rcs1000 said:

    Reform is currently 5.25-7.25 on the spreads.

    That's a great sell with someone else's money.

    I'm hoping though we go crazy and it gets up to 20 or something so the risk of selling it is worth it with [b]my[/b] money.

    I think that's a buy, because it's very asymmetrical risk-reward. Yep, the median outcome is probably 1 or 2 seats. But the Conservatives keep tripping over their feet, then it's far from impossible that they and the Conservatives end up in the high teens, in which case 30, 40 or even 60 seats is possible. (See Canada 1993.)
    The seriously asymmetric risk-reward is why I wouldn't do it with my own money, same as I wouldn't write deep OTM naked calls on, say, GME with my own money either.

    But I do think it's a sell in terms of expectancy, not just the median case.

    What I'm really hoping for is unjustified (imo, at that time, if it happens) cross over caused froth. At that point, if it happens I will put my own money on it and sell. ATM will stay content with my long of Labour at 402...
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    novanova Posts: 671
    edited June 7
    Stereodog said:

    If the Lib Dems did find themselves the official opposition with about 60 seats then they’re going to find it very hard to carry out that function properly. They would have to find a shadow minister for each department for a start. Then there would be the question of how Select Committee places would be split if every Lib Dem MP is having their time taken up shadowing a department. As a Lib Dem supporter I’d love to find out mind you.

    And nearly all their MPs will have only just entered Parliament.

    Do we know how many of the likely "new" LD MPs are coalition veterans?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,735

    Reform is currently 5.25-7.25 on the spreads.

    That's a great sell with someone else's money.

    I'm hoping though we go crazy and it gets up to 20 or something so the risk of selling it is worth it with [b]my[/b] money.

    That’s a dangerous spread bet to take the under. If it goes wrong, it could go very horribly wrong.

    (And you are betting to some extent on the Tories not completely imploding in the next four weeks).
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    edited June 7
    nova said:

    Stereodog said:

    If the Lib Dems did find themselves the official opposition with about 60 seats then they’re going to find it very hard to carry out that function properly. They would have to find a shadow minister for each department for a start. Then there would be the question of how Select Committee places would be split if every Lib Dem MP is having their time taken up shadowing a department. As a Lib Dem supporter I’d love to find out mind you.

    And nearly all their MPs will have only just entered Parliament.

    Do we know how many of the likely "new" LD MPs are coalition veterans?
    When you have such a big majority presumably internal skeptics end up being the most crucial in engaging in scrutiny and enacting change, if they do their job properly.

    Not unusual in councils of course, where a party might hold up to 100% of seats.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    ToryJim said:

    Bloody hell Boris has let himself go…

    https://x.com/dailymailuk/status/1799132308160782853?s=61

    Boris. literally phoning it in for the GE campaign.
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    GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,152
    nova said:

    Stereodog said:

    If the Lib Dems did find themselves the official opposition with about 60 seats then they’re going to find it very hard to carry out that function properly. They would have to find a shadow minister for each department for a start. Then there would be the question of how Select Committee places would be split if every Lib Dem MP is having their time taken up shadowing a department. As a Lib Dem supporter I’d love to find out mind you.

    And nearly all their MPs will have only just entered Parliament.

    Do we know how many of the likely "new" LD MPs are coalition veterans?
    There's also a risk of paper candidates getting elected and some who haven't been properly vetted.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    ToryJim said:

    Bloody hell Boris has let himself go…

    https://x.com/dailymailuk/status/1799132308160782853?s=61

    Boris. literally phoning it in for the GE campaign.
    He wants Rishi to lose badly I am sure, but probably not quite as hard as they will lose.
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    eekeek Posts: 26,554

    ToryJim said:

    Bloody hell Boris has let himself go…

    https://x.com/dailymailuk/status/1799132308160782853?s=61

    Boris. literally phoning it in for the GE campaign.
    Would you want your name anywhere near the Tory 2024 General election campaign.

    Were I Boris I would have 1 month long dentist appointment / abscess / longstanding tour of Australia....
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,637
    DM_Andy said:

    FPT:



    Official Labour Party poster.

    Seems like it's not, it's a mockup done by Ben Golik
    https://x.com/bengolik/status/1799051343027728469
    An advertising mockup with the headline He left them on the beaches, with a silhouette of a small figure of Rishi Sunak running away.
    Thanks. I am relieved to hear that it's not a Labour poster.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    Evening, peeps!

    15 minutes to go :)
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    Sandpit said:

    Reform is currently 5.25-7.25 on the spreads.

    That's a great sell with someone else's money.

    I'm hoping though we go crazy and it gets up to 20 or something so the risk of selling it is worth it with [b]my[/b] money.

    That’s a dangerous spread bet to take the under. If it goes wrong, it could go very horribly wrong.

    (And you are betting to some extent on the Tories not completely imploding in the next four weeks).
    Now that would be a brave bet.
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    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085
    eek said:

    ToryJim said:

    Bloody hell Boris has let himself go…

    https://x.com/dailymailuk/status/1799132308160782853?s=61

    Boris. literally phoning it in for the GE campaign.
    Would you want your name anywhere near the Tory 2024 General election campaign.

    Were I Boris I would have 1 month long dentist appointment / abscess / longstanding tour of Australia....
    Oh don’t, the idea of Boris spending a month in a dentist chair is too good.
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,169
    Andy_JS said:

    Former Labour MP for Kensington Emma Dent Coad is standing again as an independent.

    https://www.rbkc.gov.uk/sites/default/files/media/documents/SoPN Kensington and Bayswater Constituency.pdf

    "Kensington & Bayswater - 10 candidates

    ADAM, Mona - Green Party
    BUCHAN, Felicity - The Conservative Party Candidate
    BURCA, Marc Francis - Reform UK
    DENT COAD, Emma - Independent
    HOUNGBO, William - Liberal Democrat
    O`MAHONY, Una Marie - Party of Women
    PHILLIPS, Roger David - Christian People's Alliance
    POWELL, Joe - Labour Party
    PRINCE ANKIT LOVE, Emperor of India - no description
    STEVENS, John Christopher Courtenay - Rejoin EU"

    Dent Coad is the former Labour MP, a Corbynite she left the party.

    Love is a perennial candidate and eccentric.

    Stevens is the former Tory MEP who founded the Pro-Euro Conservative Party.
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    PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 578
    kle4 said:

    ToryJim said:

    Bloody hell Boris has let himself go…

    https://x.com/dailymailuk/status/1799132308160782853?s=61

    Boris. literally phoning it in for the GE campaign.
    He wants Rishi to lose badly I am sure, but probably not quite as hard as they will lose.
    When Boris first left, he might have harboured reasonable hopes of a comeback. A Labour hung parliament, then get swept back in on a “Only Boris can win us a majority!” hype train.

    Yet less than 2 years on and things look disastrous
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,217

    nova said:

    Stereodog said:

    If the Lib Dems did find themselves the official opposition with about 60 seats then they’re going to find it very hard to carry out that function properly. They would have to find a shadow minister for each department for a start. Then there would be the question of how Select Committee places would be split if every Lib Dem MP is having their time taken up shadowing a department. As a Lib Dem supporter I’d love to find out mind you.

    And nearly all their MPs will have only just entered Parliament.

    Do we know how many of the likely "new" LD MPs are coalition veterans?
    There's also a risk of paper candidates getting elected and some who haven't been properly vetted.
    Maybe, but it wasn’t just the Labour Party who took notice of Jared O’Mara.
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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,562
    eek said:

    biggles said:

    I’ll say it again. The Labour obituary was written in 1983, 1987, 1992, 2015, 2017, and 2019. The Tory obituary was written in 1997, 2001 (remember all those articles about the LibDems replacing them?), and 2005.

    The wheel turns.

    Farage won’t be here forever, and won’t withstand a good Tory leader doing good work in opposition; and the Tory brand will recover.

    They’ll be back.

    However one does have to wonder quite how low they will go, and my predictions are sometimes wrong (see my “reverse 2010” election prediction competition…).

    I might be right about Labour getting 38/39% in the end though! I just didn’t factor in the Tories going sub-20…

    If the Tories are sub 20, Labour will be above 40%...
    Not if Reform is high teens, the Liberals perform to type, the polls slightly flatter them.
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,169
    rcs1000 said:

    I don't see the value in the Reform most seats without Labour. If it were most votes then I think it would be a decent bet but I think Reform would struggle to get more than a few seats even with a clear lead over the Tories.

    Well, it depends. If Reform's votes come mostly in the North and in places where Labour is clear challenger, then they will likely be wasted votes.

    On the other hand, if Reform is strongest in Conservative heartlands, then (in the event there is crossover), they will likely end up with a bunch of seats.

    The most likely Reform seat number is 0. The next most likely number is 1.

    But there is a very real possibility that Sunak continues to stumble and there is crossover.
    I think the most likely RefUK seat number is 1, and the next most likely is 0.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    So it has come to this, we are seriously contemplating how the LibDems will manage as the Official Opposition.

    We live in interesting times!
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,169
    kyf_100 said:

    Why does Rishi put himself through this. I would just resign. It is tortuous to watch.....the conservatives stand humiliation and defeat must be soul crushing.


    All I can say is: brexit destroyed the right. I see reform as a defensive move for the populists after the ukippification of the conservatives failed. This is a retreat. And the current right will never come back after this. They just don't have the numbers. Being mainly Boomer OAPs the right is numerically in permanent decline. In 2029 and 2034 the situation will be much much worse for the right, and you can forget about brexiteers being able to stop anything.

    The future of the right looks like this. Term 1: ideological purists tear into each other in all out civil war. Term 2: some kind of stability appears and a new generation of centre right, progressive, pro eu millenials come in as juniors. Most of the current party will be gone. Term three: the millial generation take up leadership and begin to forge a new electoral basis. Term four: they win and get to lead the newly eu enrolled uk.

    Hari Seldon has spoken

    Living standards have been stagnant since the GFC, the UK has underperformed most other western economies, see https://www.ft.com/content/b38e4827-c4dc-402d-9ba2-a7a68a902a65

    Brexit was a symptom of a decline that began much earlier, rather than the cause.

    Reform polling as well as they are is another symptom of stagnation. A lot of people blame immigration for declining living standards. I won't make a judgement as to whether they're right or wrong, suffice to say I think a lot of wind would be taken out of Reform's sails if people actually felt they were better off now than in 2010. But a significant number don't. That's what lead to Brexit, and it's also what's leading to the destruction of the Conservative Party, now.
    Yes, it all goes back to the GFC and austerity.
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    RattersRatters Posts: 952
    I suspect I won't be permitted to watch the debate on the last night of a family holiday with two young children...

    I shall rely on PB's trustworthy commentary!
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,543
    Penny is so much better than Sunak (thought I would get this in first).
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    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,048
    nova said:

    Stereodog said:

    If the Lib Dems did find themselves the official opposition with about 60 seats then they’re going to find it very hard to carry out that function properly. They would have to find a shadow minister for each department for a start. Then there would be the question of how Select Committee places would be split if every Lib Dem MP is having their time taken up shadowing a department. As a Lib Dem supporter I’d love to find out mind you.

    And nearly all their MPs will have only just entered Parliament.

    Do we know how many of the likely "new" LD MPs are coalition veterans?
    As far as I know, only one of the (since defeated) coalition Lib Dems is standing and that's Mark Williams in Ceredigion Preseli and I don't fancy his chances of getting back to the Commons.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915

    Evening, peeps!

    15 minutes to go :)

    Also I notice, just 64 more posts until your 50k Sunil!
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    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,508

    So it has come to this, we are seriously contemplating how the LibDems will manage as the Official Opposition.

    We live in interesting times!

    Go back to your constituencies……
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,169
    Andy_JS said:

    Why does Rishi put himself through this. I would just resign. It is tortuous to watch.....the conservatives stand humiliation and defeat must be soul crushing.


    All I can say is: brexit destroyed the right. I see reform as a defensive move for the populists after the ukippification of the conservatives failed. This is a retreat. And the current right will never come back after this. They just don't have the numbers. Being mainly Boomer OAPs the right is numerically in permanent decline. In 2029 and 2034 the situation will be much much worse for the right, and you can forget about brexiteers being able to stop anything.

    The future of the right looks like this. Term 1: ideological purists tear into each other in all out civil war. Term 2: some kind of stability appears and a new generation of centre right, progressive, pro eu millenials come in as juniors. Most of the current party will be gone. Term three: the millial generation take up leadership and begin to forge a new electoral basis. Term four: they win and get to lead the newly eu enrolled uk.

    Hari Seldon has spoken

    Failing to keep most of their promises has put the Tories in this situation, not Brexit as such.
    The Leave campaign made promises of Brexit. Successive Tory administrations then made promises of Brexit. Brexit failed to keep these.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946

    So it has come to this, we are seriously contemplating how the LibDems will manage as the Official Opposition.

    We live in interesting times!

    We sure do. I think we need to let the polling settle down over the next week then see what looks likely. I'm of the opinion the Tories SHOULD hold 100 plus (maybe 150) but once they hit double figures it all collapses very fast to buttons
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,707
    DM_Andy said:

    Flanner said:

    Cicero said:

    eek said:

    @eek FPT

    Well thanks for the heads-up on the Reform Candidate in Tewkesbury. I've been watching out for that on two Sites but neither showed it. This is of some significance for me and other punters.

    A few days ago I put the LDs up as a bet at 7/1 but stressed this should be a lot shorter if Ref stood. It's now 5/1 with a couple of firms and 9/2 with Lads and if you are right (I'm sure you are) that is stonking value. As you shrewdly observed, the nice Labour lady is from Kent and looks no more than a token candidate who will one day be offered a more promising opportunity. The LD candidate assures me that 'Labour is nowhere' and the Yellow team is running them perilously close. This is all before Mr Sunak's half day out at the seaside.

    As always, DYOR, but this looks a good one to me.

    I grabbed it at 5-1 because by the time I saw your post the 7/1 had gone to 9/2.

    If the Lib Dems are winning Tewkesbury, they are clearly going to win Cheltenham and must be looking pretty good for South Cotswolds too. Labour will get Stroud and Forest of Dean. Gloucester is open (the Lib Dems won the locals, but it has been Labour in the past). Could the Tories really be reduced to only one seat in Gloucestershire? If so, then Surrey and several other Wessex counties are also in play.
    The Tories are also on track to getting close to being wiped out in Oxfordshire (which I think was never under the rule of Wessex). Of the 7 seats, I'd say they're likely to hang on to just one, and that'd be Witney, and it wouldn't be astonishing if they lost that too.
    In 1983, they held every single Westminster seat in the county. But then, since the May 2 election this year, they no longer control ANY County or District council in Oxfordshire
    Hardy included it and Dorchester-on-Thames was a sort of capital of Wessex in the mid 7th century.

    Christminster. Of Jude the Obscure. And that also explains why Dorchester (old Roman city) had its abbey, St Birinus and all that.

    Convenient map of Wessex here.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Hardy's_Wessex#/media/File:Wessex.png
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,217
    boulay said:

    eek said:

    ToryJim said:

    Bloody hell Boris has let himself go…

    https://x.com/dailymailuk/status/1799132308160782853?s=61

    Boris. literally phoning it in for the GE campaign.
    Would you want your name anywhere near the Tory 2024 General election campaign.

    Were I Boris I would have 1 month long dentist appointment / abscess / longstanding tour of Australia....
    Oh don’t, the idea of Boris spending a month in a dentist chair is too good.
    Is it safe?
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    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085
    Carnyx said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Flanner said:

    Cicero said:

    eek said:

    @eek FPT

    Well thanks for the heads-up on the Reform Candidate in Tewkesbury. I've been watching out for that on two Sites but neither showed it. This is of some significance for me and other punters.

    A few days ago I put the LDs up as a bet at 7/1 but stressed this should be a lot shorter if Ref stood. It's now 5/1 with a couple of firms and 9/2 with Lads and if you are right (I'm sure you are) that is stonking value. As you shrewdly observed, the nice Labour lady is from Kent and looks no more than a token candidate who will one day be offered a more promising opportunity. The LD candidate assures me that 'Labour is nowhere' and the Yellow team is running them perilously close. This is all before Mr Sunak's half day out at the seaside.

    As always, DYOR, but this looks a good one to me.

    I grabbed it at 5-1 because by the time I saw your post the 7/1 had gone to 9/2.

    If the Lib Dems are winning Tewkesbury, they are clearly going to win Cheltenham and must be looking pretty good for South Cotswolds too. Labour will get Stroud and Forest of Dean. Gloucester is open (the Lib Dems won the locals, but it has been Labour in the past). Could the Tories really be reduced to only one seat in Gloucestershire? If so, then Surrey and several other Wessex counties are also in play.
    The Tories are also on track to getting close to being wiped out in Oxfordshire (which I think was never under the rule of Wessex). Of the 7 seats, I'd say they're likely to hang on to just one, and that'd be Witney, and it wouldn't be astonishing if they lost that too.
    In 1983, they held every single Westminster seat in the county. But then, since the May 2 election this year, they no longer control ANY County or District council in Oxfordshire
    Hardy included it and Dorchester-on-Thames was a sort of capital of Wessex in the mid 7th century.

    Christminster. Of Jude the Obscure. And that also explains why Dorchester (old Roman city) had its abbey, St Birinus and all that.

    Convenient map of Wessex here.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Hardy's_Wessex#/media/File:Wessex.png
    If Old Wessex was still a country it would surely be the gentlest country in the world, apart from Portsmouth.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    So was it fake news that photo of Rishi on the beach was an official Labour poster?
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    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,367
    ToryJim said:

    Bloody hell Boris has let himself go…

    https://x.com/dailymailuk/status/1799132308160782853?s=61

    What's happened to his nose? He looks like he's been punched...
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    GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,152
    DavidL said:

    Penny is so much better than Sunak (thought I would get this in first).

    What I would like to see from her is a little bit of humility and admit that the Cons have made some mistakes. Rishi is always too chipper.
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    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,048

    So was it fake news that photo of Rishi on the beach was an official Labour poster?

    Found the twitter of the guy who mocked it up https://x.com/bengolik/status/1799051343027728469
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    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085

    So was it fake news that photo of Rishi on the beach was an official Labour poster?

    Isn’t it the way of politics for a while that official campaigns can do the “nice” campaigns and leave the shit flinging to super-PACS or adjacent friends. It doesn’t have to be official Labour, it’s going to be given the nod somewhere but can be distanced if uncomfortable.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,372
    Reform would have to win more seats than both incumbents Conservatives and Lib Dems with a really effective seat winning machine to win this bet. At the recent council elections, also catastrophic for the Tories, the Conservatives got ten times the seats of Reform, as did the Lib Dems. The Greens got three times as many.

    I think the Conservative vote will need to collapse entirely or Labour lose significant support it has carefully built up over the past couple of years. And bear in mind the very "safest" Tory seats will mostly go Lib Dem if they fall.

    Reform could easily win a handful of seats and they could easily be second in vote share. But second in seats is a massive ask in my view.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,146

    So it has come to this, we are seriously contemplating how the LibDems will manage as the Official Opposition.

    We live in interesting times!

    We sure do. I think we need to let the polling settle down over the next week then see what looks likely. I'm of the opinion the Tories SHOULD hold 100 plus (maybe 150) but once they hit double figures it all collapses very fast to buttons
    I think that the Tories should be well north of 100 seats when push comes to shove. I can see multiple ways that it all goes haywire though so I think even with pretty stable polls it is incredibly unpredictable.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    DM_Andy said:

    So was it fake news that photo of Rishi on the beach was an official Labour poster?

    Found the twitter of the guy who mocked it up https://x.com/bengolik/status/1799051343027728469
    Scandalous.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    Theresa May must be delighted.

    She's no longer run the worst GE campaign in history.
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    DeafblokeDeafbloke Posts: 70

    kyf_100 said:

    Why does Rishi put himself through this. I would just resign. It is tortuous to watch.....the conservatives stand humiliation and defeat must be soul crushing.


    All I can say is: brexit destroyed the right. I see reform as a defensive move for the populists after the ukippification of the conservatives failed. This is a retreat. And the current right will never come back after this. They just don't have the numbers. Being mainly Boomer OAPs the right is numerically in permanent decline. In 2029 and 2034 the situation will be much much worse for the right, and you can forget about brexiteers being able to stop anything.

    The future of the right looks like this. Term 1: ideological purists tear into each other in all out civil war. Term 2: some kind of stability appears and a new generation of centre right, progressive, pro eu millenials come in as juniors. Most of the current party will be gone. Term three: the millial generation take up leadership and begin to forge a new electoral basis. Term four: they win and get to lead the newly eu enrolled uk.

    Hari Seldon has spoken

    Living standards have been stagnant since the GFC, the UK has underperformed most other western economies, see https://www.ft.com/content/b38e4827-c4dc-402d-9ba2-a7a68a902a65

    Brexit was a symptom of a decline that began much earlier, rather than the cause.

    Reform polling as well as they are is another symptom of stagnation. A lot of people blame immigration for declining living standards. I won't make a judgement as to whether they're right or wrong, suffice to say I think a lot of wind would be taken out of Reform's sails if people actually felt they were better off now than in 2010. But a significant number don't. That's what lead to Brexit, and it's also what's leading to the destruction of the Conservative Party, now.
    Yes, it all goes back to the GFC and austerity.
    1. The decline in the rate of productivity growth dates back to at least the mid 2000s, pre GFC. Policies since have done nothing to correct this

    2. Brexit is sui generis, not a symptom

    3. In reality, austerity never happened
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,637

    Theresa May must be delighted.

    She's no longer run the worst GE campaign in history.

    MIchael Foot must also be looking down with amusement.
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    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,873
    FF43 said:

    Reform would have to win more seats than both incumbents Conservatives and Lib Dems with a really effective seat winning machine to win this bet. At the recent council elections, also catastrophic for the Tories, the Conservatives got ten times the seats of Reform, as did the Lib Dems. The Greens got three times as many.

    I think the Conservative vote will need to collapse entirely or Labour lose significant support it has carefully built up over the past couple of years. And bear in mind the very "safest" Tory seats will mostly go Lib Dem if they fall.

    Reform could easily win a handful of seats and they could easily be second in vote share. But second in seats is a massive ask in my view.

    Yes, that is certainly the lesson from the locals.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763
    edited June 7
    ...

    So was it fake news that photo of Rishi on the beach was an official Labour poster?

    Just some wag I think. Anyway I don't believe anything major happened whilst you were indisposed. Although there were some anti-Labour, pro-Palestinian protesters in Brighton according to Carlotta.

    Edit: Oh and Grealish has been dropped.
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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,562

    So it has come to this, we are seriously contemplating how the LibDems will manage as the Official Opposition.

    We live in interesting times!

    With the mighty Ed Davey? Easily. One bonkers photo op a week and they’ll be running the country by Christmas.
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    PJHPJH Posts: 609
    DM_Andy said:

    nova said:

    Stereodog said:

    If the Lib Dems did find themselves the official opposition with about 60 seats then they’re going to find it very hard to carry out that function properly. They would have to find a shadow minister for each department for a start. Then there would be the question of how Select Committee places would be split if every Lib Dem MP is having their time taken up shadowing a department. As a Lib Dem supporter I’d love to find out mind you.

    And nearly all their MPs will have only just entered Parliament.

    Do we know how many of the likely "new" LD MPs are coalition veterans?
    As far as I know, only one of the (since defeated) coalition Lib Dems is standing and that's Mark Williams in Ceredigion Preseli and I don't fancy his chances of getting back to the Commons.
    I think Andrew George is having another go in St Ives and as things stand ought to get back in. He wasn't the most collegiate in Coalition days though.

    And Tessa Munt in Wells & the Mendips
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,146
    Andrea Jenkyns has issued a statement that is interesting in that she can’t work out whether to hug or hit Farage. She’s also deploying her usual deranged hyperbole.

    https://x.com/andreajenkyns/status/1799140972397318277?s=61
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,637
    boulay said:

    So was it fake news that photo of Rishi on the beach was an official Labour poster?

    Isn’t it the way of politics for a while that official campaigns can do the “nice” campaigns and leave the shit flinging to super-PACS or adjacent friends. It doesn’t have to be official Labour, it’s going to be given the nod somewhere but can be distanced if uncomfortable.
    Post-truth smear.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,146

    I am home.

    I shall be writing threads from tomorrow.

    Excellent, but don’t overdo it. Your health comes first.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    Reform are

    I find the D-day stuff a bit overblown to be honest.

    I'm astonished too. I don't know a single person who was glued to the D-Day coverage beforehand and yet it's got huge traction.

    I can only conclude that the electorate want to see Sunak slip on banana skins, and are rather enjoying it.

    There will be more of them. He doesn't have the political savviness or dexterity to avoid them.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    ToryJim said:

    Andrea Jenkyns has issued a statement that is interesting in that she can’t work out whether to hug or hit Farage. She’s also deploying her usual deranged hyperbole.

    https://x.com/andreajenkyns/status/1799140972397318277?s=61

    She also has a point though.
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,169
    I’m watching the debate, god help me.

    Penny Mordaunt’s hair is too bouffant. But she speaks well.

    Farage most aggressive so far, absolutely slamming Sunak.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763

    Reform are

    I find the D-day stuff a bit overblown to be honest.

    I'm astonished too. I don't know a single person who was glued to the D-Day coverage beforehand and yet it's got huge traction.

    I can only conclude that the electorate want to see Sunak slip on banana skins, and are rather enjoying it.

    There will be more of them. He doesn't have the political savviness or dexterity to avoid them.
    As you know Casino I am no fan of Sunak's Conservative Party, but the faux outrage really is bollocks. That said he should have known better.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567

    I am home.

    I shall be writing threads from tomorrow.

    Huzzah! Good to know you're fully functional again!
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    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,048
    PJH said:

    DM_Andy said:

    nova said:

    Stereodog said:

    If the Lib Dems did find themselves the official opposition with about 60 seats then they’re going to find it very hard to carry out that function properly. They would have to find a shadow minister for each department for a start. Then there would be the question of how Select Committee places would be split if every Lib Dem MP is having their time taken up shadowing a department. As a Lib Dem supporter I’d love to find out mind you.

    And nearly all their MPs will have only just entered Parliament.

    Do we know how many of the likely "new" LD MPs are coalition veterans?
    As far as I know, only one of the (since defeated) coalition Lib Dems is standing and that's Mark Williams in Ceredigion Preseli and I don't fancy his chances of getting back to the Commons.
    I think Andrew George is having another go in St Ives and as things stand ought to get back in. He wasn't the most collegiate in Coalition days though.

    And Tessa Munt in Wells & the Mendips
    Thanks for that and yes, both should get elected and probably right into the front bench.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 20,483

    Everything’s going so well…

    The launch of Labour’s new Kemptown candidate Chris Ward’s campaign was interrupted this afternoon by anti-Israel demonstrators.

    About a dozen protesters attended the meeting at St George’s Church in Kemptown Village.

    As one speaker, Caroline O’Reilly, harangued Mr Ward and senior Labour politician Chris Bryant, others clapped and clicked their fingers in approval.

    After about five minutes, Mr Ward, Mr Bryant and other party members left the church……


    “I don’t think you realise the depth of unhappiness that it’s caused. Lloyd was elected by us. You have not been elected by us.

    “From what my research says, you are not the person who will represent my interests and thsoe of my children and grandchilden, and …”

    Chris Bryant then tried to speak, telling her “no more ands”.

    Mrs O’Reilly shouted back: “Don’t tell me no more ands. I’m just as entitled to my opinion.


    https://www.brightonandhovenews.org/2024/06/07/gaza-campaigners-disrupt-new-kemptown-labour-candidates-campaign-launch/#google_vignette

    Caroline seem sot be a funny old stick, with quite a lot of nuts in her fruitcake (imo).

    Previously she demanded that the water meter in her home be changed because the one that had been installed was made in Israel.

    Associated with PSC, and so on, of course.

    I'm not bothering to look further.
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    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,048
    Penny on the attack - Putin will bomb us if you vote Labour.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399
    This is great! They're knocking chunks out of each other! Stood right next to each other!
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399
    biggles said:

    So it has come to this, we are seriously contemplating how the LibDems will manage as the Official Opposition.

    We live in interesting times!

    With the mighty Ed Davey? Easily. One bonkers photo op a week and they’ll be running the country by Christmas.
    Remember that I have baggsied the Ministry of Silly Walks
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,146

    ToryJim said:

    Andrea Jenkyns has issued a statement that is interesting in that she can’t work out whether to hug or hit Farage. She’s also deploying her usual deranged hyperbole.

    https://x.com/andreajenkyns/status/1799140972397318277?s=61

    She also has a point though.
    The statement would have been improved had she stuck to that one thing and not gone into lurid prognostications of the end of Britain.
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    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,367
    Mordaunt badly losing the hairdo battle. She's used two cans of hairspray on the roots, and left none over for the ends.
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    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,508

    I am home.

    I shall be writing threads from tomorrow.

    Well, there’s not much else the doctors will allow you to do for the next few weeks!
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    Anybody else watching the BeeB debate?
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    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085


    I’m looking forward to hearing more about these nucular weapons.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    We were 'joking' earlier about what acts of cruelty the Tories could perform to depress their vote further.

    I have now realised that keeping Sunak on the campaign trail is the single cruelest act I have witnessed on terrestrial TV.

    It would be an act of mercy if he were to withdraw
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,169
    However, Mordaunt oddly seems close to tears!

    Mordaunt trying to be performatively angry at Labour. First slanging match between Mordaunt and Rayner. Rayner coming off better, I think.

    Denyer needs to stop looking at her notes.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    FF43 said:

    Reform would have to win more seats than both incumbents Conservatives and Lib Dems with a really effective seat winning machine to win this bet. At the recent council elections, also catastrophic for the Tories, the Conservatives got ten times the seats of Reform, as did the Lib Dems. The Greens got three times as many.

    I think the Conservative vote will need to collapse entirely or Labour lose significant support it has carefully built up over the past couple of years. And bear in mind the very "safest" Tory seats will mostly go Lib Dem if they fall.

    Reform could easily win a handful of seats and they could easily be second in vote share. But second in seats is a massive ask in my view.

    Agreed, I'd want much longer odds than 13/1. Depending on how much faith you place in EC's model you can use that to determine the sort of vote share Reform need to get for breakthrough.

    (To save you the bother, I've done it. If Labour get close to 40%, and LDs stay at about 10%, Reform would need to get 25% to overtake them - by which time the Tories are down to 10% and <10 seats.)
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,247

    Reform are

    I find the D-day stuff a bit overblown to be honest.

    I'm astonished too. I don't know a single person who was glued to the D-Day coverage beforehand and yet it's got huge traction.

    I can only conclude that the electorate want to see Sunak slip on banana skins, and are rather enjoying it.

    There will be more of them. He doesn't have the political savviness or dexterity to avoid them.
    It’s not that he slipped on a banana skin, it’s that he turned down a golden opportunity to be prime ministerial and rise above the political campaign and somehow, inconceivably turned that into a catastrophic negative. A totally self created and unforced error. .
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,671
    Penny going for it big time . Rayner stood up well . We await gobby !
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Reform doing their bit to save Truss booster Simon Clarke giving him a free run in Middlesborough South and Cleveland
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    AbandonedHopeAbandonedHope Posts: 136
    Penny Mordaunt is going for the Hillary Clinton vote (judging by her hair).
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,146
    I can’t watch as I’m expecting a phone call but I see Penny threw Rishi under the bus.
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,169
    Mordaunt has enough hair, surely she could have loaned some to Flynn.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763
    ...
    Scott_xP said:

    We were 'joking' earlier about what acts of cruelty the Tories could perform to depress their vote further.

    I have now realised that keeping Sunak on the campaign trail is the single cruelest act I have witnessed on terrestrial TV.

    It would be an act of mercy if he were to withdraw

    But who do you get instead? I can't imagine Cruella and Honest Bob saying over to you Penny.
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    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,854
    Penny doing the absolute bare minimum to defend Rishi.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,363
    Scott_xP said:

    We were 'joking' earlier about what acts of cruelty the Tories could perform to depress their vote further.

    I have now realised that keeping Sunak on the campaign trail is the single cruelest act I have witnessed on terrestrial TV.

    It would be an act of mercy if he were to withdraw

    Your compassion shines through as always.
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    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,532

    However, Mordaunt oddly seems close to tears!

    Mordaunt trying to be performatively angry at Labour. First slanging match between Mordaunt and Rayner. Rayner coming off better, I think.

    Denyer needs to stop looking at her notes.

    Supporting CON is enough to make anyone move to tears at the moment!
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    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,508

    biggles said:

    So it has come to this, we are seriously contemplating how the LibDems will manage as the Official Opposition.

    We live in interesting times!

    With the mighty Ed Davey? Easily. One bonkers photo op a week and they’ll be running the country by Christmas.
    Remember that I have baggsied the Ministry of Silly Walks
    Ministry of Food And Electric Vehicle Production, shirley?
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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,562
    edited June 7
    “Daisy Cooper, the deputy leader of the Liberal Democrats, also starts by vowing to maintain the UK's nuclear deterrent.

    She also attacks cuts to the numbers of troops in the armed forces, saying the Lib Dems would reverse that trend.

    Cooper also pledges to increase defence spending "year-on-year" to reach 2.5% of GDP spent on it per year by the end of the forthcoming parliament”.

    Good God.

    Well done Putin, you have created unanimity in the British political establishment that we should boost defence spending and commit k Trident. The LibDems even wanted alternatives to Tridenr when they were in Gvt! It would be so easy to stick to that now and they haven’t - good on them.
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,169
    Cooper doesn’t know where to look while the others are speaking.
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    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,854
    Christ, I've just agreed with Farage. Who am I?
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,441

    Reform doing their bit to save Truss booster Simon Clarke giving him a free run in Middlesborough South and Cleveland

    HAs someone yet worked out a count of candidates?
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    @georgeeaton

    Rishi Sunak is going to be the big loser from this debate and he's not even there.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    edited June 7
    ToryJim said:

    I can’t watch as I’m expecting a phone call but I see Penny threw Rishi under the bus.

    I can't watch as I have a Tedium Tolerance Deficiency but I am grateful to those putting themselves through it and posting snippets on here.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106

    I’m watching the debate, god help me.

    Penny Mordaunt’s hair is too bouffant. But she speaks well.

    Farage most aggressive so far, absolutely slamming Sunak.

    Have you considered why it's bouffant?

    Not hard to figure out.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106

    Christ, I've just agreed with Farage. Who am I?

    A Reform maybe.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    Farage must have the easiest job on that stage. He does what he does well, but it must be shooting fish in a barrel.
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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,562
    Jonathan said:

    Reform are

    I find the D-day stuff a bit overblown to be honest.

    I'm astonished too. I don't know a single person who was glued to the D-Day coverage beforehand and yet it's got huge traction.

    I can only conclude that the electorate want to see Sunak slip on banana skins, and are rather enjoying it.

    There will be more of them. He doesn't have the political savviness or dexterity to avoid them.
    It’s not that he slipped on a banana skin, it’s that he turned down a golden opportunity to be prime ministerial and rise above the political campaign and somehow, inconceivably turned that into a catastrophic negative. A totally self created and unforced error. .
    Yup. Imagine being a politician during an election campaign, being offered free prime time tv in which you are linked to D-Day, and Zelensky says you are awesome… and you turn it down. Even worse, imagine doing that when security is a cornerstone of your campaign….
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,169
    Oh God, we’re still on D-Day!

    This is a 7-way pile on. Mordaunt is as brave as a D-Day veteran to be there.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399

    Reform doing their bit to save Truss booster Simon Clarke giving him a free run in Middlesborough South and Cleveland

    Won't save him - he's toast
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,247
    Daisy cooper is a barrel of laughs. Very intense.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,019
    Rockets from both Cooper and Farage re Sunak. They're both right
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    BobSykesBobSykes Posts: 46
    Any impartial casual viewer watching this must be thinking christ what a bunch of non entities we have in British politics these days.

    Is this the best the 7 leading parties can put up?

    Farage looks the best and that really demonstrates my point...
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946

    Reform doing their bit to save Truss booster Simon Clarke giving him a free run in Middlesborough South and Cleveland

    HAs someone yet worked out a count of candidates?
    The full SONPs aren't out yet so I've seen nothing official
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399
    What is that look on Penny M's face? Sneering disdain for the questions? Or despair that she is there.
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    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,532
    I might turn over to the football soon...
This discussion has been closed.