I'm hoping though we go crazy and it gets up to 20 or something so the risk of selling it is worth it with [b]my[/b] money.
I think that's a buy, because it's very asymmetrical risk-reward. Yep, the median outcome is probably 1 or 2 seats. But the Conservatives keep tripping over their feet, then it's far from impossible that they and the Conservatives end up in the high teens, in which case 30, 40 or even 60 seats is possible. (See Canada 1993.)
The seriously asymmetric risk-reward is why I wouldn't do it with my own money, same as I wouldn't write deep OTM naked calls on, say, GME with my own money either.
But I do think it's a sell in terms of expectancy, not just the median case.
What I'm really hoping for is unjustified (imo, at that time, if it happens) cross over caused froth. At that point, if it happens I will put my own money on it and sell. ATM will stay content with my long of Labour at 402...
If the Lib Dems did find themselves the official opposition with about 60 seats then they’re going to find it very hard to carry out that function properly. They would have to find a shadow minister for each department for a start. Then there would be the question of how Select Committee places would be split if every Lib Dem MP is having their time taken up shadowing a department. As a Lib Dem supporter I’d love to find out mind you.
And nearly all their MPs will have only just entered Parliament.
Do we know how many of the likely "new" LD MPs are coalition veterans?
If the Lib Dems did find themselves the official opposition with about 60 seats then they’re going to find it very hard to carry out that function properly. They would have to find a shadow minister for each department for a start. Then there would be the question of how Select Committee places would be split if every Lib Dem MP is having their time taken up shadowing a department. As a Lib Dem supporter I’d love to find out mind you.
And nearly all their MPs will have only just entered Parliament.
Do we know how many of the likely "new" LD MPs are coalition veterans?
When you have such a big majority presumably internal skeptics end up being the most crucial in engaging in scrutiny and enacting change, if they do their job properly.
Not unusual in councils of course, where a party might hold up to 100% of seats.
If the Lib Dems did find themselves the official opposition with about 60 seats then they’re going to find it very hard to carry out that function properly. They would have to find a shadow minister for each department for a start. Then there would be the question of how Select Committee places would be split if every Lib Dem MP is having their time taken up shadowing a department. As a Lib Dem supporter I’d love to find out mind you.
And nearly all their MPs will have only just entered Parliament.
Do we know how many of the likely "new" LD MPs are coalition veterans?
There's also a risk of paper candidates getting elected and some who haven't been properly vetted.
ADAM, Mona - Green Party BUCHAN, Felicity - The Conservative Party Candidate BURCA, Marc Francis - Reform UK DENT COAD, Emma - Independent HOUNGBO, William - Liberal Democrat O`MAHONY, Una Marie - Party of Women PHILLIPS, Roger David - Christian People's Alliance POWELL, Joe - Labour Party PRINCE ANKIT LOVE, Emperor of India - no description STEVENS, John Christopher Courtenay - Rejoin EU"
Dent Coad is the former Labour MP, a Corbynite she left the party.
Love is a perennial candidate and eccentric.
Stevens is the former Tory MEP who founded the Pro-Euro Conservative Party.
Boris. literally phoning it in for the GE campaign.
He wants Rishi to lose badly I am sure, but probably not quite as hard as they will lose.
When Boris first left, he might have harboured reasonable hopes of a comeback. A Labour hung parliament, then get swept back in on a “Only Boris can win us a majority!” hype train.
Yet less than 2 years on and things look disastrous
If the Lib Dems did find themselves the official opposition with about 60 seats then they’re going to find it very hard to carry out that function properly. They would have to find a shadow minister for each department for a start. Then there would be the question of how Select Committee places would be split if every Lib Dem MP is having their time taken up shadowing a department. As a Lib Dem supporter I’d love to find out mind you.
And nearly all their MPs will have only just entered Parliament.
Do we know how many of the likely "new" LD MPs are coalition veterans?
There's also a risk of paper candidates getting elected and some who haven't been properly vetted.
Maybe, but it wasn’t just the Labour Party who took notice of Jared O’Mara.
I’ll say it again. The Labour obituary was written in 1983, 1987, 1992, 2015, 2017, and 2019. The Tory obituary was written in 1997, 2001 (remember all those articles about the LibDems replacing them?), and 2005.
The wheel turns.
Farage won’t be here forever, and won’t withstand a good Tory leader doing good work in opposition; and the Tory brand will recover.
They’ll be back.
However one does have to wonder quite how low they will go, and my predictions are sometimes wrong (see my “reverse 2010” election prediction competition…).
I might be right about Labour getting 38/39% in the end though! I just didn’t factor in the Tories going sub-20…
If the Tories are sub 20, Labour will be above 40%...
Not if Reform is high teens, the Liberals perform to type, the polls slightly flatter them.
I don't see the value in the Reform most seats without Labour. If it were most votes then I think it would be a decent bet but I think Reform would struggle to get more than a few seats even with a clear lead over the Tories.
Well, it depends. If Reform's votes come mostly in the North and in places where Labour is clear challenger, then they will likely be wasted votes.
On the other hand, if Reform is strongest in Conservative heartlands, then (in the event there is crossover), they will likely end up with a bunch of seats.
The most likely Reform seat number is 0. The next most likely number is 1.
But there is a very real possibility that Sunak continues to stumble and there is crossover.
I think the most likely RefUK seat number is 1, and the next most likely is 0.
Why does Rishi put himself through this. I would just resign. It is tortuous to watch.....the conservatives stand humiliation and defeat must be soul crushing.
All I can say is: brexit destroyed the right. I see reform as a defensive move for the populists after the ukippification of the conservatives failed. This is a retreat. And the current right will never come back after this. They just don't have the numbers. Being mainly Boomer OAPs the right is numerically in permanent decline. In 2029 and 2034 the situation will be much much worse for the right, and you can forget about brexiteers being able to stop anything.
The future of the right looks like this. Term 1: ideological purists tear into each other in all out civil war. Term 2: some kind of stability appears and a new generation of centre right, progressive, pro eu millenials come in as juniors. Most of the current party will be gone. Term three: the millial generation take up leadership and begin to forge a new electoral basis. Term four: they win and get to lead the newly eu enrolled uk.
Brexit was a symptom of a decline that began much earlier, rather than the cause.
Reform polling as well as they are is another symptom of stagnation. A lot of people blame immigration for declining living standards. I won't make a judgement as to whether they're right or wrong, suffice to say I think a lot of wind would be taken out of Reform's sails if people actually felt they were better off now than in 2010. But a significant number don't. That's what lead to Brexit, and it's also what's leading to the destruction of the Conservative Party, now.
If the Lib Dems did find themselves the official opposition with about 60 seats then they’re going to find it very hard to carry out that function properly. They would have to find a shadow minister for each department for a start. Then there would be the question of how Select Committee places would be split if every Lib Dem MP is having their time taken up shadowing a department. As a Lib Dem supporter I’d love to find out mind you.
And nearly all their MPs will have only just entered Parliament.
Do we know how many of the likely "new" LD MPs are coalition veterans?
As far as I know, only one of the (since defeated) coalition Lib Dems is standing and that's Mark Williams in Ceredigion Preseli and I don't fancy his chances of getting back to the Commons.
Why does Rishi put himself through this. I would just resign. It is tortuous to watch.....the conservatives stand humiliation and defeat must be soul crushing.
All I can say is: brexit destroyed the right. I see reform as a defensive move for the populists after the ukippification of the conservatives failed. This is a retreat. And the current right will never come back after this. They just don't have the numbers. Being mainly Boomer OAPs the right is numerically in permanent decline. In 2029 and 2034 the situation will be much much worse for the right, and you can forget about brexiteers being able to stop anything.
The future of the right looks like this. Term 1: ideological purists tear into each other in all out civil war. Term 2: some kind of stability appears and a new generation of centre right, progressive, pro eu millenials come in as juniors. Most of the current party will be gone. Term three: the millial generation take up leadership and begin to forge a new electoral basis. Term four: they win and get to lead the newly eu enrolled uk.
Hari Seldon has spoken
Failing to keep most of their promises has put the Tories in this situation, not Brexit as such.
The Leave campaign made promises of Brexit. Successive Tory administrations then made promises of Brexit. Brexit failed to keep these.
So it has come to this, we are seriously contemplating how the LibDems will manage as the Official Opposition.
We live in interesting times!
We sure do. I think we need to let the polling settle down over the next week then see what looks likely. I'm of the opinion the Tories SHOULD hold 100 plus (maybe 150) but once they hit double figures it all collapses very fast to buttons
Well thanks for the heads-up on the Reform Candidate in Tewkesbury. I've been watching out for that on two Sites but neither showed it. This is of some significance for me and other punters.
A few days ago I put the LDs up as a bet at 7/1 but stressed this should be a lot shorter if Ref stood. It's now 5/1 with a couple of firms and 9/2 with Lads and if you are right (I'm sure you are) that is stonking value. As you shrewdly observed, the nice Labour lady is from Kent and looks no more than a token candidate who will one day be offered a more promising opportunity. The LD candidate assures me that 'Labour is nowhere' and the Yellow team is running them perilously close. This is all before Mr Sunak's half day out at the seaside.
As always, DYOR, but this looks a good one to me.
I grabbed it at 5-1 because by the time I saw your post the 7/1 had gone to 9/2.
If the Lib Dems are winning Tewkesbury, they are clearly going to win Cheltenham and must be looking pretty good for South Cotswolds too. Labour will get Stroud and Forest of Dean. Gloucester is open (the Lib Dems won the locals, but it has been Labour in the past). Could the Tories really be reduced to only one seat in Gloucestershire? If so, then Surrey and several other Wessex counties are also in play.
The Tories are also on track to getting close to being wiped out in Oxfordshire (which I think was never under the rule of Wessex). Of the 7 seats, I'd say they're likely to hang on to just one, and that'd be Witney, and it wouldn't be astonishing if they lost that too. In 1983, they held every single Westminster seat in the county. But then, since the May 2 election this year, they no longer control ANY County or District council in Oxfordshire
Hardy included it and Dorchester-on-Thames was a sort of capital of Wessex in the mid 7th century.
Christminster. Of Jude the Obscure. And that also explains why Dorchester (old Roman city) had its abbey, St Birinus and all that.
Well thanks for the heads-up on the Reform Candidate in Tewkesbury. I've been watching out for that on two Sites but neither showed it. This is of some significance for me and other punters.
A few days ago I put the LDs up as a bet at 7/1 but stressed this should be a lot shorter if Ref stood. It's now 5/1 with a couple of firms and 9/2 with Lads and if you are right (I'm sure you are) that is stonking value. As you shrewdly observed, the nice Labour lady is from Kent and looks no more than a token candidate who will one day be offered a more promising opportunity. The LD candidate assures me that 'Labour is nowhere' and the Yellow team is running them perilously close. This is all before Mr Sunak's half day out at the seaside.
As always, DYOR, but this looks a good one to me.
I grabbed it at 5-1 because by the time I saw your post the 7/1 had gone to 9/2.
If the Lib Dems are winning Tewkesbury, they are clearly going to win Cheltenham and must be looking pretty good for South Cotswolds too. Labour will get Stroud and Forest of Dean. Gloucester is open (the Lib Dems won the locals, but it has been Labour in the past). Could the Tories really be reduced to only one seat in Gloucestershire? If so, then Surrey and several other Wessex counties are also in play.
The Tories are also on track to getting close to being wiped out in Oxfordshire (which I think was never under the rule of Wessex). Of the 7 seats, I'd say they're likely to hang on to just one, and that'd be Witney, and it wouldn't be astonishing if they lost that too. In 1983, they held every single Westminster seat in the county. But then, since the May 2 election this year, they no longer control ANY County or District council in Oxfordshire
Hardy included it and Dorchester-on-Thames was a sort of capital of Wessex in the mid 7th century.
Christminster. Of Jude the Obscure. And that also explains why Dorchester (old Roman city) had its abbey, St Birinus and all that.
So was it fake news that photo of Rishi on the beach was an official Labour poster?
Isn’t it the way of politics for a while that official campaigns can do the “nice” campaigns and leave the shit flinging to super-PACS or adjacent friends. It doesn’t have to be official Labour, it’s going to be given the nod somewhere but can be distanced if uncomfortable.
Reform would have to win more seats than both incumbents Conservatives and Lib Dems with a really effective seat winning machine to win this bet. At the recent council elections, also catastrophic for the Tories, the Conservatives got ten times the seats of Reform, as did the Lib Dems. The Greens got three times as many.
I think the Conservative vote will need to collapse entirely or Labour lose significant support it has carefully built up over the past couple of years. And bear in mind the very "safest" Tory seats will mostly go Lib Dem if they fall.
Reform could easily win a handful of seats and they could easily be second in vote share. But second in seats is a massive ask in my view.
So it has come to this, we are seriously contemplating how the LibDems will manage as the Official Opposition.
We live in interesting times!
We sure do. I think we need to let the polling settle down over the next week then see what looks likely. I'm of the opinion the Tories SHOULD hold 100 plus (maybe 150) but once they hit double figures it all collapses very fast to buttons
I think that the Tories should be well north of 100 seats when push comes to shove. I can see multiple ways that it all goes haywire though so I think even with pretty stable polls it is incredibly unpredictable.
Why does Rishi put himself through this. I would just resign. It is tortuous to watch.....the conservatives stand humiliation and defeat must be soul crushing.
All I can say is: brexit destroyed the right. I see reform as a defensive move for the populists after the ukippification of the conservatives failed. This is a retreat. And the current right will never come back after this. They just don't have the numbers. Being mainly Boomer OAPs the right is numerically in permanent decline. In 2029 and 2034 the situation will be much much worse for the right, and you can forget about brexiteers being able to stop anything.
The future of the right looks like this. Term 1: ideological purists tear into each other in all out civil war. Term 2: some kind of stability appears and a new generation of centre right, progressive, pro eu millenials come in as juniors. Most of the current party will be gone. Term three: the millial generation take up leadership and begin to forge a new electoral basis. Term four: they win and get to lead the newly eu enrolled uk.
Brexit was a symptom of a decline that began much earlier, rather than the cause.
Reform polling as well as they are is another symptom of stagnation. A lot of people blame immigration for declining living standards. I won't make a judgement as to whether they're right or wrong, suffice to say I think a lot of wind would be taken out of Reform's sails if people actually felt they were better off now than in 2010. But a significant number don't. That's what lead to Brexit, and it's also what's leading to the destruction of the Conservative Party, now.
Yes, it all goes back to the GFC and austerity.
1. The decline in the rate of productivity growth dates back to at least the mid 2000s, pre GFC. Policies since have done nothing to correct this
Reform would have to win more seats than both incumbents Conservatives and Lib Dems with a really effective seat winning machine to win this bet. At the recent council elections, also catastrophic for the Tories, the Conservatives got ten times the seats of Reform, as did the Lib Dems. The Greens got three times as many.
I think the Conservative vote will need to collapse entirely or Labour lose significant support it has carefully built up over the past couple of years. And bear in mind the very "safest" Tory seats will mostly go Lib Dem if they fall.
Reform could easily win a handful of seats and they could easily be second in vote share. But second in seats is a massive ask in my view.
Yes, that is certainly the lesson from the locals.
So was it fake news that photo of Rishi on the beach was an official Labour poster?
Just some wag I think. Anyway I don't believe anything major happened whilst you were indisposed. Although there were some anti-Labour, pro-Palestinian protesters in Brighton according to Carlotta.
If the Lib Dems did find themselves the official opposition with about 60 seats then they’re going to find it very hard to carry out that function properly. They would have to find a shadow minister for each department for a start. Then there would be the question of how Select Committee places would be split if every Lib Dem MP is having their time taken up shadowing a department. As a Lib Dem supporter I’d love to find out mind you.
And nearly all their MPs will have only just entered Parliament.
Do we know how many of the likely "new" LD MPs are coalition veterans?
As far as I know, only one of the (since defeated) coalition Lib Dems is standing and that's Mark Williams in Ceredigion Preseli and I don't fancy his chances of getting back to the Commons.
I think Andrew George is having another go in St Ives and as things stand ought to get back in. He wasn't the most collegiate in Coalition days though.
Andrea Jenkyns has issued a statement that is interesting in that she can’t work out whether to hug or hit Farage. She’s also deploying her usual deranged hyperbole.
So was it fake news that photo of Rishi on the beach was an official Labour poster?
Isn’t it the way of politics for a while that official campaigns can do the “nice” campaigns and leave the shit flinging to super-PACS or adjacent friends. It doesn’t have to be official Labour, it’s going to be given the nod somewhere but can be distanced if uncomfortable.
Andrea Jenkyns has issued a statement that is interesting in that she can’t work out whether to hug or hit Farage. She’s also deploying her usual deranged hyperbole.
If the Lib Dems did find themselves the official opposition with about 60 seats then they’re going to find it very hard to carry out that function properly. They would have to find a shadow minister for each department for a start. Then there would be the question of how Select Committee places would be split if every Lib Dem MP is having their time taken up shadowing a department. As a Lib Dem supporter I’d love to find out mind you.
And nearly all their MPs will have only just entered Parliament.
Do we know how many of the likely "new" LD MPs are coalition veterans?
As far as I know, only one of the (since defeated) coalition Lib Dems is standing and that's Mark Williams in Ceredigion Preseli and I don't fancy his chances of getting back to the Commons.
I think Andrew George is having another go in St Ives and as things stand ought to get back in. He wasn't the most collegiate in Coalition days though.
And Tessa Munt in Wells & the Mendips
Thanks for that and yes, both should get elected and probably right into the front bench.
Andrea Jenkyns has issued a statement that is interesting in that she can’t work out whether to hug or hit Farage. She’s also deploying her usual deranged hyperbole.
Reform would have to win more seats than both incumbents Conservatives and Lib Dems with a really effective seat winning machine to win this bet. At the recent council elections, also catastrophic for the Tories, the Conservatives got ten times the seats of Reform, as did the Lib Dems. The Greens got three times as many.
I think the Conservative vote will need to collapse entirely or Labour lose significant support it has carefully built up over the past couple of years. And bear in mind the very "safest" Tory seats will mostly go Lib Dem if they fall.
Reform could easily win a handful of seats and they could easily be second in vote share. But second in seats is a massive ask in my view.
Agreed, I'd want much longer odds than 13/1. Depending on how much faith you place in EC's model you can use that to determine the sort of vote share Reform need to get for breakthrough.
(To save you the bother, I've done it. If Labour get close to 40%, and LDs stay at about 10%, Reform would need to get 25% to overtake them - by which time the Tories are down to 10% and <10 seats.)
I find the D-day stuff a bit overblown to be honest.
I'm astonished too. I don't know a single person who was glued to the D-Day coverage beforehand and yet it's got huge traction.
I can only conclude that the electorate want to see Sunak slip on banana skins, and are rather enjoying it.
There will be more of them. He doesn't have the political savviness or dexterity to avoid them.
It’s not that he slipped on a banana skin, it’s that he turned down a golden opportunity to be prime ministerial and rise above the political campaign and somehow, inconceivably turned that into a catastrophic negative. A totally self created and unforced error. .
“Daisy Cooper, the deputy leader of the Liberal Democrats, also starts by vowing to maintain the UK's nuclear deterrent.
She also attacks cuts to the numbers of troops in the armed forces, saying the Lib Dems would reverse that trend.
Cooper also pledges to increase defence spending "year-on-year" to reach 2.5% of GDP spent on it per year by the end of the forthcoming parliament”.
Good God.
Well done Putin, you have created unanimity in the British political establishment that we should boost defence spending and commit k Trident. The LibDems even wanted alternatives to Tridenr when they were in Gvt! It would be so easy to stick to that now and they haven’t - good on them.
I find the D-day stuff a bit overblown to be honest.
I'm astonished too. I don't know a single person who was glued to the D-Day coverage beforehand and yet it's got huge traction.
I can only conclude that the electorate want to see Sunak slip on banana skins, and are rather enjoying it.
There will be more of them. He doesn't have the political savviness or dexterity to avoid them.
It’s not that he slipped on a banana skin, it’s that he turned down a golden opportunity to be prime ministerial and rise above the political campaign and somehow, inconceivably turned that into a catastrophic negative. A totally self created and unforced error. .
Yup. Imagine being a politician during an election campaign, being offered free prime time tv in which you are linked to D-Day, and Zelensky says you are awesome… and you turn it down. Even worse, imagine doing that when security is a cornerstone of your campaign….
Seriously, did daisy cooper really start her day yesterday watching something about her dad’s friend being blown up? She should try tea and marmalade on toast instead. Makes for a happier life.
Comments
https://x.com/dailymailuk/status/1799132308160782853?s=61
But I do think it's a sell in terms of expectancy, not just the median case.
What I'm really hoping for is unjustified (imo, at that time, if it happens) cross over caused froth. At that point, if it happens I will put my own money on it and sell. ATM will stay content with my long of Labour at 402...
Do we know how many of the likely "new" LD MPs are coalition veterans?
(And you are betting to some extent on the Tories not completely imploding in the next four weeks).
Not unusual in councils of course, where a party might hold up to 100% of seats.
Were I Boris I would have 1 month long dentist appointment / abscess / longstanding tour of Australia....
15 minutes to go
Love is a perennial candidate and eccentric.
Stevens is the former Tory MEP who founded the Pro-Euro Conservative Party.
Yet less than 2 years on and things look disastrous
We live in interesting times!
I shall rely on PB's trustworthy commentary!
Convenient map of Wessex here.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Hardy's_Wessex#/media/File:Wessex.png
I think the Conservative vote will need to collapse entirely or Labour lose significant support it has carefully built up over the past couple of years. And bear in mind the very "safest" Tory seats will mostly go Lib Dem if they fall.
Reform could easily win a handful of seats and they could easily be second in vote share. But second in seats is a massive ask in my view.
She's no longer run the worst GE campaign in history.
2. Brexit is sui generis, not a symptom
3. In reality, austerity never happened
I shall be writing threads from tomorrow.
Edit: Oh and Grealish has been dropped.
And Tessa Munt in Wells & the Mendips
https://x.com/andreajenkyns/status/1799140972397318277?s=61
I can only conclude that the electorate want to see Sunak slip on banana skins, and are rather enjoying it.
There will be more of them. He doesn't have the political savviness or dexterity to avoid them.
Penny Mordaunt’s hair is too bouffant. But she speaks well.
Farage most aggressive so far, absolutely slamming Sunak.
Previously she demanded that the water meter in her home be changed because the one that had been installed was made in Israel.
Associated with PSC, and so on, of course.
I'm not bothering to look further.
I’m looking forward to hearing more about these nucular weapons.
I have now realised that keeping Sunak on the campaign trail is the single cruelest act I have witnessed on terrestrial TV.
It would be an act of mercy if he were to withdraw
Mordaunt trying to be performatively angry at Labour. First slanging match between Mordaunt and Rayner. Rayner coming off better, I think.
Denyer needs to stop looking at her notes.
(To save you the bother, I've done it. If Labour get close to 40%, and LDs stay at about 10%, Reform would need to get 25% to overtake them - by which time the Tories are down to 10% and <10 seats.)
She also attacks cuts to the numbers of troops in the armed forces, saying the Lib Dems would reverse that trend.
Cooper also pledges to increase defence spending "year-on-year" to reach 2.5% of GDP spent on it per year by the end of the forthcoming parliament”.
Good God.
Well done Putin, you have created unanimity in the British political establishment that we should boost defence spending and commit k Trident. The LibDems even wanted alternatives to Tridenr when they were in Gvt! It would be so easy to stick to that now and they haven’t - good on them.
Rishi Sunak is going to be the big loser from this debate and he's not even there.
Not hard to figure out.
This is a 7-way pile on. Mordaunt is as brave as a D-Day veteran to be there.
Is this the best the 7 leading parties can put up?
Farage looks the best and that really demonstrates my point...