Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

Could the Conservatives Really Come Third? – politicalbetting.com

2456717

Comments

  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,247

    So is there confirmation yet re: the full list of UK GE 2024 candidates?

    And if so, is it posted on web somewhere?

    This is what my candidates list looked like for the 2015 general election.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Klul21t3kREO3Mv-LOUEUpEtQkYHZ2P4Dxc8q5EWUWY/edit?gid=0#gid=0
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    edited June 7
    Andy_JS said:

    Former Labour MP for Kensington Emma Dent Coad is standing again as an independent.

    https://www.rbkc.gov.uk/sites/default/files/media/documents/SoPN Kensington and Bayswater Constituency.pdf

    "Kensington & Bayswater - 10 candidates

    ADAM, Mona - Green Party
    BUCHAN, Felicity - The Conservative Party Candidate
    BURCA, Marc Francis - Reform UK
    DENT COAD, Emma - Independent
    HOUNGBO, William - Liberal Democrat
    O`MAHONY, Una Marie - Party of Women
    PHILLIPS, Roger David - Christian People's Alliance
    POWELL, Joe - Labour Party
    PRINCE ANKIT LOVE, Emperor of India - no description
    STEVENS, John Christopher Courtenay - Rejoin EU"

    I see she quit assuming at some point she would be ousted, so maybe she was ahead of the game
    https://labourlist.org/2023/04/ex-kensington-mp-emma-dent-coad-quits-unrecognisable-labour-party/

    Would take a lot for Labour not to win the seat though.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,772
    I don't see the value in the Reform most seats without Labour. If it were most votes then I think it would be a decent bet but I think Reform would struggle to get more than a few seats even with a clear lead over the Tories.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 26,554

    FPT: Ex Tory Georgina Hill standing against Anne Marie Trevelyan as an Ind in North Northumberland, should hive off a few unhappy Con voters. If Reform stand a candidate, it could be Goodnight Berwick.

    Katherine Ann
    (address in the
    Hexham
    Constituency)
    Reform UK is the reform candidate.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,690
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is getting ridiculous.

    Clarence Thomas has YET AGAIN amended his financial disclosure form ONLY AFTER getting caught by ProPublica. Thomas must RESIGN.
    https://x.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1799124842115113338

    The man is quite clearly as corrupt as they come. And for reasons of politics and preserving the power of the Supreme Court from other branches of government, the rest of them will never do anything about it - holding people accountable is a very foreign concept now.

    If this is even half correct it would be ludicrous how forgiving of receiving 'gifts' they are - the problem of the appearance of impropriety being a problem only applies to lesser judges apparently.

    What is so sad is that American politics has become so polarized that half the country is willing to ignore this, because he's "their guy".
    And Supreme Court justice is such a powerful position, it's worth nearly any price to keep your guys and do anything it takes to keep any appointment of a new one under your own President. Decades of mostly reliable political backing on the court (yes, many cases will not split on party lines, but the big controversial ones often will).
    Believe last SCOTUS justice who resigned due to ethical issues was Abe Fortas
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abe_Fortas

    Lyndon Johnson's lawyer and appointee to the court; note the photo of LBJ & AB in wiki article.

  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,690
    Andy_JS said:

    Tories described Rotherham as "unwinnable", but in fact it's number 40 on their target list out of 268.

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

    Your point being?
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,247
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Former Labour MP for Kensington Emma Dent Coad is standing again as an independent.

    https://www.rbkc.gov.uk/sites/default/files/media/documents/SoPN Kensington and Bayswater Constituency.pdf

    "Kensington & Bayswater - 10 candidates

    ADAM, Mona - Green Party
    BUCHAN, Felicity - The Conservative Party Candidate
    BURCA, Marc Francis - Reform UK
    DENT COAD, Emma - Independent
    HOUNGBO, William - Liberal Democrat
    O`MAHONY, Una Marie - Party of Women
    PHILLIPS, Roger David - Christian People's Alliance
    POWELL, Joe - Labour Party
    PRINCE ANKIT LOVE, Emperor of India - no description
    STEVENS, John Christopher Courtenay - Rejoin EU"

    I see she quit assuming at some point she would be ousted, so maybe she was ahead of the game
    https://labourlist.org/2023/04/ex-kensington-mp-emma-dent-coad-quits-unrecognisable-labour-party/

    Would take a lot for Labour not to win the seat though.
    Well in fact boundary changes have handed it to Labour according to the official notional results, by 390 votes.

    https://electionresults.parliament.uk/elections/2294
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Former Labour MP for Kensington Emma Dent Coad is standing again as an independent.

    https://www.rbkc.gov.uk/sites/default/files/media/documents/SoPN Kensington and Bayswater Constituency.pdf

    "Kensington & Bayswater - 10 candidates

    ADAM, Mona - Green Party
    BUCHAN, Felicity - The Conservative Party Candidate
    BURCA, Marc Francis - Reform UK
    DENT COAD, Emma - Independent
    HOUNGBO, William - Liberal Democrat
    O`MAHONY, Una Marie - Party of Women
    PHILLIPS, Roger David - Christian People's Alliance
    POWELL, Joe - Labour Party
    PRINCE ANKIT LOVE, Emperor of India - no description
    STEVENS, John Christopher Courtenay - Rejoin EU"

    I'd be staggered if she retained her deposit.
    She hasn't been an MP for 5 years and the Starmerite wing are riding high, it's hard to see her pulling that much name recognition even though she is local.

    It will be interesting to see the current and former MPs standing for fringe parties or independent, and see who does best.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,602
    Reform '93 got all their winnable votes west of Ontario and in rural Central and Southwestern Ontario. No seats in Toronto or Atlantic Canada, and for the most part very few votes. Well, it is a physically giant country. They even managed to stand ZERO candidates in the entirety of Québec, which makes a perverse sort of sense given the political situation. So the 18.3% was very well concentrated compared to Reform '24.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410

    I find the D-day stuff a bit overblown to be honest.

    I doubt many people are actually offended by it. In fact I don’t think - with a few exceptions - politicians are even pretending to be that offended. It’s the sheer political idiocy of the move and the fact he did it to do a micro-political interview to “defend accusations of lies” that creates a sense of farce.

    By contrast people really were upset by partygate (though I struggled to be - but then I wasn’t affected by not being able to visit relatives in hospital).
  • Options
    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,450
    edited June 7
    https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1799130750366917075

    Interesting idea.👇 Should CCHQ stand down Penny Mordaunt and draft in PM Rishi Sunak for tonight's seven-way BBC election debate? It would be bold and brave on a dreadful day for the Tory leader.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 20,487

    @eek FPT

    Well thanks for the heads-up on the Reform Candidate in Tewkesbury. I've been watching out for that on two Sites but neither showed it. This is of some significance for me and other punters.

    A few days ago I put the LDs up as a bet at 7/1 but stressed this should be a lot shorter if Ref stood. It's now 5/1 with a couple of firms and 9/2 with Lads and if you are right (I'm sure you are) that is stonking value. As you shrewdly observed, the nice Labour lady is from Kent and looks no more than a token candidate who will one day be offered a more promising opportunity. The LD candidate assures me that 'Labour is nowhere' and the Yellow team is running them perilously close. This is all before Mr Sunak's half day out at the seaside.

    As always, DYOR, but this looks a good one to me.

    I've just been rate-limited by Oddschecker !
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    edited June 7
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Former Labour MP for Kensington Emma Dent Coad is standing again as an independent.

    https://www.rbkc.gov.uk/sites/default/files/media/documents/SoPN Kensington and Bayswater Constituency.pdf

    "Kensington & Bayswater - 10 candidates

    ADAM, Mona - Green Party
    BUCHAN, Felicity - The Conservative Party Candidate
    BURCA, Marc Francis - Reform UK
    DENT COAD, Emma - Independent
    HOUNGBO, William - Liberal Democrat
    O`MAHONY, Una Marie - Party of Women
    PHILLIPS, Roger David - Christian People's Alliance
    POWELL, Joe - Labour Party
    PRINCE ANKIT LOVE, Emperor of India - no description
    STEVENS, John Christopher Courtenay - Rejoin EU"

    I'd be staggered if she retained her deposit.
    @rcs1000 I've PMed you a possible thread header, let me know if I should send it another way.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,308

    I don't see the value in the Reform most seats without Labour. If it were most votes then I think it would be a decent bet but I think Reform would struggle to get more than a few seats even with a clear lead over the Tories.

    Well, it depends. If Reform's votes come mostly in the North and in places where Labour is clear challenger, then they will likely be wasted votes.

    On the other hand, if Reform is strongest in Conservative heartlands, then (in the event there is crossover), they will likely end up with a bunch of seats.

    The most likely Reform seat number is 0. The next most likely number is 1.

    But there is a very real possibility that Sunak continues to stumble and there is crossover.
  • Options
    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    ToryJim said:

    Looks like Rishi could get quite literally binned, as the Count is standing in Richmond.

    https://x.com/countbinface/status/1799119807486316592?s=46

    At 13 that's the most candidates I've seen for a seat so far. Holborn & St Pancras (Starmer) has 12, as does Oxford East (Anneliese Dodds). Any with more?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,308

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Former Labour MP for Kensington Emma Dent Coad is standing again as an independent.

    https://www.rbkc.gov.uk/sites/default/files/media/documents/SoPN Kensington and Bayswater Constituency.pdf

    "Kensington & Bayswater - 10 candidates

    ADAM, Mona - Green Party
    BUCHAN, Felicity - The Conservative Party Candidate
    BURCA, Marc Francis - Reform UK
    DENT COAD, Emma - Independent
    HOUNGBO, William - Liberal Democrat
    O`MAHONY, Una Marie - Party of Women
    PHILLIPS, Roger David - Christian People's Alliance
    POWELL, Joe - Labour Party
    PRINCE ANKIT LOVE, Emperor of India - no description
    STEVENS, John Christopher Courtenay - Rejoin EU"

    I'd be staggered if she retained her deposit.
    @rcs1000 I've PMed you a possible thread header, let me know if I should send it another way.
    Yes! My email is my username at gmail.com
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,733
    edited June 7
    maaarsh said:

    https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1799130750366917075

    Interesting idea.👇 Should CCHQ stand down Penny Mordaunt and draft in PM Rishi Sunak for tonight's seven-way BBC election debate? It would be bold and brave on a dreadful day for the Tory leader.

    Er........ no. But perhaps there is a better understudy?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liz_Truss
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    maaarsh said:

    https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1799130750366917075

    Interesting idea.👇 Should CCHQ stand down Penny Mordaunt and draft in PM Rishi Sunak for tonight's seven-way BBC election debate? It would be bold and brave on a dreadful day for the Tory leader.

    Worth doing I'd say - the group will spend all their time attacking him and Starmer for not being there, if he is there sure they will attack him, but he will be the only likely PM on the stage at least.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,146
    maaarsh said:

    https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1799130750366917075

    Interesting idea.👇 Should CCHQ stand down Penny Mordaunt and draft in PM Rishi Sunak for tonight's seven-way BBC election debate? It would be bold and brave on a dreadful day for the Tory leader.

    Mad it would be a pile on from which he would not emerge well.. if at all.
  • Options
    FlannerFlanner Posts: 436
    Cicero said:

    eek said:

    @eek FPT

    Well thanks for the heads-up on the Reform Candidate in Tewkesbury. I've been watching out for that on two Sites but neither showed it. This is of some significance for me and other punters.

    A few days ago I put the LDs up as a bet at 7/1 but stressed this should be a lot shorter if Ref stood. It's now 5/1 with a couple of firms and 9/2 with Lads and if you are right (I'm sure you are) that is stonking value. As you shrewdly observed, the nice Labour lady is from Kent and looks no more than a token candidate who will one day be offered a more promising opportunity. The LD candidate assures me that 'Labour is nowhere' and the Yellow team is running them perilously close. This is all before Mr Sunak's half day out at the seaside.

    As always, DYOR, but this looks a good one to me.

    I grabbed it at 5-1 because by the time I saw your post the 7/1 had gone to 9/2.

    If the Lib Dems are winning Tewkesbury, they are clearly going to win Cheltenham and must be looking pretty good for South Cotswolds too. Labour will get Stroud and Forest of Dean. Gloucester is open (the Lib Dems won the locals, but it has been Labour in the past). Could the Tories really be reduced to only one seat in Gloucestershire? If so, then Surrey and several other Wessex counties are also in play.
    The Tories are also on track to getting close to being wiped out in Oxfordshire (which I think was never under the rule of Wessex). Of the 7 seats, I'd say they're likely to hang on to just one, and that'd be Witney, and it wouldn't be astonishing if they lost that too.
    In 1983, they held every single Westminster seat in the county. But then, since the May 2 election this year, they no longer control ANY County or District council in Oxfordshire
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,478

    Why does Rishi put himself through this. I would just resign. It is tortuous to watch.....the conservatives stand humiliation and defeat must be soul crushing.


    All I can say is: brexit destroyed the right. I see reform as a defensive move for the populists after the ukippification of the conservatives failed. This is a retreat. And the current right will never come back after this. They just don't have the numbers. Being mainly Boomer OAPs the right is numerically in permanent decline. In 2029 and 2034 the situation will be much much worse for the right, and you can forget about brexiteers being able to stop anything.

    The future of the right looks like this. Term 1: ideological purists tear into each other in all out civil war. Term 2: some kind of stability appears and a new generation of centre right, progressive, pro eu millenials come in as juniors. Most of the current party will be gone. Term three: the millial generation take up leadership and begin to forge a new electoral basis. Term four: they win and get to lead the newly eu enrolled uk.

    Hari Seldon has spoken

    Living standards have been stagnant since the GFC, the UK has underperformed most other western economies, see https://www.ft.com/content/b38e4827-c4dc-402d-9ba2-a7a68a902a65

    Brexit was a symptom of a decline that began much earlier, rather than the cause.

    Reform polling as well as they are is another symptom of stagnation. A lot of people blame immigration for declining living standards. I won't make a judgement as to whether they're right or wrong, suffice to say I think a lot of wind would be taken out of Reform's sails if people actually felt they were better off now than in 2010. But a significant number don't. That's what lead to Brexit, and it's also what's leading to the destruction of the Conservative Party, now.
  • Options
    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,450
    ToryJim said:

    maaarsh said:

    https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1799130750366917075

    Interesting idea.👇 Should CCHQ stand down Penny Mordaunt and draft in PM Rishi Sunak for tonight's seven-way BBC election debate? It would be bold and brave on a dreadful day for the Tory leader.

    Mad it would be a pile on from which he would not emerge well.. if at all.
    Yeah and then he might lose the election
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,048
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Former Labour MP for Kensington Emma Dent Coad is standing again as an independent.

    https://www.rbkc.gov.uk/sites/default/files/media/documents/SoPN Kensington and Bayswater Constituency.pdf

    "Kensington & Bayswater - 10 candidates

    ADAM, Mona - Green Party
    BUCHAN, Felicity - The Conservative Party Candidate
    BURCA, Marc Francis - Reform UK
    DENT COAD, Emma - Independent
    HOUNGBO, William - Liberal Democrat
    O`MAHONY, Una Marie - Party of Women
    PHILLIPS, Roger David - Christian People's Alliance
    POWELL, Joe - Labour Party
    PRINCE ANKIT LOVE, Emperor of India - no description
    STEVENS, John Christopher Courtenay - Rejoin EU"

    I'd be staggered if she retained her deposit.
    She hasn't been an MP for 5 years and the Starmerite wing are riding high, it's hard to see her pulling that much name recognition even though she is local.

    It will be interesting to see the current and former MPs standing for fringe parties or independent, and see who does best.
    Corbyn would seem to be the front runner for that, should get into the 30s, I expect Lee Anderson to poll in the 20s in Ashfield. Worst probably Claudia Webbe in Leicester East?

  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 26,554
    ToryJim said:

    maaarsh said:

    https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1799130750366917075

    Interesting idea.👇 Should CCHQ stand down Penny Mordaunt and draft in PM Rishi Sunak for tonight's seven-way BBC election debate? It would be bold and brave on a dreadful day for the Tory leader.

    Mad it would be a pile on from which he would not emerge well.. if at all.
    Which is why the No 10 press office is investigating whether its possible...
  • Options
    CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 451

    Why does Rishi put himself through this. I would just resign. It is tortuous to watch.....the conservatives stand humiliation and defeat must be soul crushing.


    All I can say is: brexit destroyed the right. I see reform as a defensive move for the populists after the ukippification of the conservatives failed. This is a retreat. And the current right will never come back after this. They just don't have the numbers. Being mainly Boomer OAPs the right is numerically in permanent decline. In 2029 and 2034 the situation will be much much worse for the right, and you can forget about brexiteers being able to stop anything.

    The future of the right looks like this. Term 1: ideological purists tear into each other in all out civil war. Term 2: some kind of stability appears and a new generation of centre right, progressive, pro eu millenials come in as juniors. Most of the current party will be gone. Term three: the millial generation take up leadership and begin to forge a new electoral basis. Term four: they win and get to lead the newly eu enrolled uk.

    Hari Seldon has spoken

    Equating the EU with liberal progressivism is a very post-Brexit British way of thinking. There's nothing inherently progressive about the integration of European countries.
    That was not my point though. Eu is eu. Progressivism is simply the tolerance of millenials in identity politics.
  • Options
    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,873
    rcs1000 said:

    Incidentally, did everyone know that Ed Davey was a hero?

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/profiles/ed-davey-the-night-i-pulled-a-woman-from-the-tracks-as-a-train-hurtled-towards-us-7534767.html

    Ed Davey: 'The night I pulled a woman from the tracks as a train hurtled towards us'

    Who?
    I did know this, and he got a medal for bravery from the Royal Humane Society. Ed is very much the real deal.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,308
    OK: I'm off for a swim.

    Play nicely.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    edited June 7
    DM_Andy said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Former Labour MP for Kensington Emma Dent Coad is standing again as an independent.

    https://www.rbkc.gov.uk/sites/default/files/media/documents/SoPN Kensington and Bayswater Constituency.pdf

    "Kensington & Bayswater - 10 candidates

    ADAM, Mona - Green Party
    BUCHAN, Felicity - The Conservative Party Candidate
    BURCA, Marc Francis - Reform UK
    DENT COAD, Emma - Independent
    HOUNGBO, William - Liberal Democrat
    O`MAHONY, Una Marie - Party of Women
    PHILLIPS, Roger David - Christian People's Alliance
    POWELL, Joe - Labour Party
    PRINCE ANKIT LOVE, Emperor of India - no description
    STEVENS, John Christopher Courtenay - Rejoin EU"

    I'd be staggered if she retained her deposit.
    She hasn't been an MP for 5 years and the Starmerite wing are riding high, it's hard to see her pulling that much name recognition even though she is local.

    It will be interesting to see the current and former MPs standing for fringe parties or independent, and see who does best.
    Corbyn would seem to be the front runner for that, should get into the 30s, I expect Lee Anderson to poll in the 20s in Ashfield. Worst probably Claudia Webbe in Leicester East?

    Galloway will get minimum 30% in Rochdale I think
    Julian Knight will do poorly in Solihull.......
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,048
    Flanner said:

    Cicero said:

    eek said:

    @eek FPT

    Well thanks for the heads-up on the Reform Candidate in Tewkesbury. I've been watching out for that on two Sites but neither showed it. This is of some significance for me and other punters.

    A few days ago I put the LDs up as a bet at 7/1 but stressed this should be a lot shorter if Ref stood. It's now 5/1 with a couple of firms and 9/2 with Lads and if you are right (I'm sure you are) that is stonking value. As you shrewdly observed, the nice Labour lady is from Kent and looks no more than a token candidate who will one day be offered a more promising opportunity. The LD candidate assures me that 'Labour is nowhere' and the Yellow team is running them perilously close. This is all before Mr Sunak's half day out at the seaside.

    As always, DYOR, but this looks a good one to me.

    I grabbed it at 5-1 because by the time I saw your post the 7/1 had gone to 9/2.

    If the Lib Dems are winning Tewkesbury, they are clearly going to win Cheltenham and must be looking pretty good for South Cotswolds too. Labour will get Stroud and Forest of Dean. Gloucester is open (the Lib Dems won the locals, but it has been Labour in the past). Could the Tories really be reduced to only one seat in Gloucestershire? If so, then Surrey and several other Wessex counties are also in play.
    The Tories are also on track to getting close to being wiped out in Oxfordshire (which I think was never under the rule of Wessex). Of the 7 seats, I'd say they're likely to hang on to just one, and that'd be Witney, and it wouldn't be astonishing if they lost that too.
    In 1983, they held every single Westminster seat in the county. But then, since the May 2 election this year, they no longer control ANY County or District council in Oxfordshire
    Hardy included it and Dorchester-on-Thames was a sort of capital of Wessex in the mid 7th century.

  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,733
    Flanner said:

    Cicero said:

    eek said:

    @eek FPT

    Well thanks for the heads-up on the Reform Candidate in Tewkesbury. I've been watching out for that on two Sites but neither showed it. This is of some significance for me and other punters.

    A few days ago I put the LDs up as a bet at 7/1 but stressed this should be a lot shorter if Ref stood. It's now 5/1 with a couple of firms and 9/2 with Lads and if you are right (I'm sure you are) that is stonking value. As you shrewdly observed, the nice Labour lady is from Kent and looks no more than a token candidate who will one day be offered a more promising opportunity. The LD candidate assures me that 'Labour is nowhere' and the Yellow team is running them perilously close. This is all before Mr Sunak's half day out at the seaside.

    As always, DYOR, but this looks a good one to me.

    I grabbed it at 5-1 because by the time I saw your post the 7/1 had gone to 9/2.

    If the Lib Dems are winning Tewkesbury, they are clearly going to win Cheltenham and must be looking pretty good for South Cotswolds too. Labour will get Stroud and Forest of Dean. Gloucester is open (the Lib Dems won the locals, but it has been Labour in the past). Could the Tories really be reduced to only one seat in Gloucestershire? If so, then Surrey and several other Wessex counties are also in play.
    The Tories are also on track to getting close to being wiped out in Oxfordshire (which I think was never under the rule of Wessex). Of the 7 seats, I'd say they're likely to hang on to just one, and that'd be Witney, and it wouldn't be astonishing if they lost that too.
    In 1983, they held every single Westminster seat in the county. But then, since the May 2 election this year, they no longer control ANY County or District council in Oxfordshire
    They might yet cling on to Didcot & Wantage. It's effectively a three-way marginal and Labour and the Liberals are bickering locally about who should back off. Signs are neither will and the Tory might therefore survive.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,247
    Arguably if there was one seat in the country where the Tories didn't want to give RefUK a clear run in terms of parties to the right-of-centre it was Rotherham. But they've achieved it.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 26,554
    rcs1000 said:

    I don't see the value in the Reform most seats without Labour. If it were most votes then I think it would be a decent bet but I think Reform would struggle to get more than a few seats even with a clear lead over the Tories.

    Well, it depends. If Reform's votes come mostly in the North and in places where Labour is clear challenger, then they will likely be wasted votes.

    On the other hand, if Reform is strongest in Conservative heartlands, then (in the event there is crossover), they will likely end up with a bunch of seats.

    The most likely Reform seat number is 0. The next most likely number is 1.

    But there is a very real possibility that Sunak continues to stumble and there is crossover.
    I just don't see it - if Rishi stumbles the party most likely to gain will be whoever was second (out of Labour / Lib Dems) as Reform / Tories split the right wing vote.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,247

    Why does Rishi put himself through this. I would just resign. It is tortuous to watch.....the conservatives stand humiliation and defeat must be soul crushing.


    All I can say is: brexit destroyed the right. I see reform as a defensive move for the populists after the ukippification of the conservatives failed. This is a retreat. And the current right will never come back after this. They just don't have the numbers. Being mainly Boomer OAPs the right is numerically in permanent decline. In 2029 and 2034 the situation will be much much worse for the right, and you can forget about brexiteers being able to stop anything.

    The future of the right looks like this. Term 1: ideological purists tear into each other in all out civil war. Term 2: some kind of stability appears and a new generation of centre right, progressive, pro eu millenials come in as juniors. Most of the current party will be gone. Term three: the millial generation take up leadership and begin to forge a new electoral basis. Term four: they win and get to lead the newly eu enrolled uk.

    Hari Seldon has spoken

    Failing to keep most of their promises has put the Tories in this situation, not Brexit as such.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is getting ridiculous.

    Clarence Thomas has YET AGAIN amended his financial disclosure form ONLY AFTER getting caught by ProPublica. Thomas must RESIGN.
    https://x.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1799124842115113338

    The man is quite clearly as corrupt as they come. And for reasons of politics and preserving the power of the Supreme Court from other branches of government, the rest of them will never do anything about it - holding people accountable is a very foreign concept now.

    If this is even half correct it would be ludicrous how forgiving of receiving 'gifts' they are - the problem of the appearance of impropriety being a problem only applies to lesser judges apparently.

    What is so sad is that American politics has become so polarized that half the country is willing to ignore this, because he's "their guy".
    And Supreme Court justice is such a powerful position, it's worth nearly any price to keep your guys and do anything it takes to keep any appointment of a new one under your own President. Decades of mostly reliable political backing on the court (yes, many cases will not split on party lines, but the big controversial ones often will).
    Believe last SCOTUS justice who resigned due to ethical issues was Abe Fortas
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abe_Fortas

    Lyndon Johnson's lawyer and appointee to the court; note the photo of LBJ & AB in wiki article.

    What Clarence Thomas has taught me is I need much better friends, as no one has ever offered me millions of dollars in luxury travel and knick knacks.

    As far as I'm aware his excuse for all his failures to disclose in a timely manner is its all so confusing and he's an idiot - the last refuge of the shameless, and rather contradictory to his position of one of the top jurists in the country.

    Though from what I gather the Court has through various decisions, completely coincidentally I am sure, made prosecuting corruption harder than it used to be. You probably have to be Senator Menendez level stuffing gold bars in your house to get caught, and even then I gather some novel arguments might get him off.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,733
    edited June 7

    ToryJim said:

    Looks like Rishi could get quite literally binned, as the Count is standing in Richmond.

    https://x.com/countbinface/status/1799119807486316592?s=46

    At 13 that's the most candidates I've seen for a seat so far. Holborn & St Pancras (Starmer) has 12, as does Oxford East (Anneliese Dodds). Any with more?
    Don't understand the mentality of these egotists who stand against the likes of Sir Keir in Holborn. They might as well just flush £500 down the loo.
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085
    Andy_JS said:

    Arguably if there was one seat in the country where the Tories didn't want to give RefUK a clear run in terms of parties to the right-of-centre it was Rotherham. But they've achieved it.

    Just think, Leon could have stepped up, read the riot act about the locals and been carried to victory, next stop leader of the Tories. What’s not to like?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,908

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is getting ridiculous.

    Clarence Thomas has YET AGAIN amended his financial disclosure form ONLY AFTER getting caught by ProPublica. Thomas must RESIGN.
    https://x.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1799124842115113338

    The man is quite clearly as corrupt as they come. And for reasons of politics and preserving the power of the Supreme Court from other branches of government, the rest of them will never do anything about it - holding people accountable is a very foreign concept now.

    If this is even half correct it would be ludicrous how forgiving of receiving 'gifts' they are - the problem of the appearance of impropriety being a problem only applies to lesser judges apparently.

    What is so sad is that American politics has become so polarized that half the country is willing to ignore this, because he's "their guy".
    And Supreme Court justice is such a powerful position, it's worth nearly any price to keep your guys and do anything it takes to keep any appointment of a new one under your own President. Decades of mostly reliable political backing on the court (yes, many cases will not split on party lines, but the big controversial ones often will).
    Believe last SCOTUS justice who resigned due to ethical issues was Abe Fortas
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abe_Fortas

    Lyndon Johnson's lawyer and appointee to the court; note the photo of LBJ & AB in wiki article.

    Even Fortas had sufficient principle (or shame) to recuse himself in the case in which he was financially embarrassed.
    Thomas gives no indication of either principle or shame.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,673
    maaarsh said:

    https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1799130750366917075

    Interesting idea.👇 Should CCHQ stand down Penny Mordaunt and draft in PM Rishi Sunak for tonight's seven-way BBC election debate? It would be bold and brave on a dreadful day for the Tory leader.

    That would be a good move . I think Sunak turning up and showing some fight would be a risk worth taking .
  • Options
    Smart51Smart51 Posts: 58
    On the quiet, the Lib Dems are having quite a good election, but I still think 60 seats is their ceiling. For the Tories to come third, they need to lose a good number of seats to drop below 60. That said, Rishi and Nigel between them seem to be doing the business.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,733
    Andy_JS said:

    Arguably if there was one seat in the country where the Tories didn't want to give RefUK a clear run in terms of parties to the right-of-centre it was Rotherham. But they've achieved it.

    Why? It will be an easy Labour hold.
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085
    nico679 said:

    maaarsh said:

    https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1799130750366917075

    Interesting idea.👇 Should CCHQ stand down Penny Mordaunt and draft in PM Rishi Sunak for tonight's seven-way BBC election debate? It would be bold and brave on a dreadful day for the Tory leader.

    That would be a good move . I think Sunak turning up and showing some fight would be a risk worth taking .
    Especially if he borrowed Penny’s coronation outfit. Everyone would be speechless and he would win by default.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,457
    Andy_JS said:

    Arguably if there was one seat in the country where the Tories didn't want to give RefUK a clear run in terms of parties to the right-of-centre it was Rotherham. But they've achieved it.

    They aren’t standing?
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,539
    nico679 said:

    maaarsh said:

    https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1799130750366917075

    Interesting idea.👇 Should CCHQ stand down Penny Mordaunt and draft in PM Rishi Sunak for tonight's seven-way BBC election debate? It would be bold and brave on a dreadful day for the Tory leader.

    That would be a good move . I think Sunak turning up and showing some fight would be a risk worth taking .
    Yes - also bear in mind the BBC won't devote that much time to D-Day.

    This is the chance for 7 parties to give their policies.

    It's not going to be the best use of time for the other 6 to be repeating the same point endlessly about D-Day.

    It'll be one question.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    ToryJim said:

    Looks like Rishi could get quite literally binned, as the Count is standing in Richmond.

    https://x.com/countbinface/status/1799119807486316592?s=46

    At 13 that's the most candidates I've seen for a seat so far. Holborn & St Pancras (Starmer) has 12, as does Oxford East (Anneliese Dodds). Any with more?
    Beats the 12 in Uxbridge in 2019 and in Witney in 2015, equals the 13 in Maidenhead in 2017, and smashes a rather pathetic 8 in Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath in 2010.
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,048
    From the Telegraph reporting on a former GP heckling Sunak in Wiltshire:
    Mr Sunak laughed when an activist interjected “most GPs spend more time on holiday than in a surgery, though”. In response to the heckler, the Prime Minister said: “Right well, so my dad was a GP but my mum was also a pharmacist. So that’s the household I grew up in, my parents dedicated themselves to primary care, I know a thing or two about it. I worked very hard in my mum’s pharmacy.
    Laughing at a member of the public during an election campaign, it's just tone deaf and it's not like he's got the reserve of goodwill anymore to carry him past this stuff.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774

    Why does Rishi put himself through this. I would just resign. It is tortuous to watch.....the conservatives stand humiliation and defeat must be soul crushing.


    All I can say is: brexit destroyed the right. I see reform as a defensive move for the populists after the ukippification of the conservatives failed. This is a retreat. And the current right will never come back after this. They just don't have the numbers. Being mainly Boomer OAPs the right is numerically in permanent decline. In 2029 and 2034 the situation will be much much worse for the right, and you can forget about brexiteers being able to stop anything.

    The future of the right looks like this. Term 1: ideological purists tear into each other in all out civil war. Term 2: some kind of stability appears and a new generation of centre right, progressive, pro eu millenials come in as juniors. Most of the current party will be gone. Term three: the millial generation take up leadership and begin to forge a new electoral basis. Term four: they win and get to lead the newly eu enrolled uk.

    Hari Seldon has spoken

    Equating the EU with liberal progressivism is a very post-Brexit British way of thinking. There's nothing inherently progressive about the integration of European countries.
    That was not my point though. Eu is eu. Progressivism is simply the tolerance of millenials in identity politics.
    If the EU becomes dominated by a Meloni-style right, would it be compatible with your idea of the way the millenial generation in Britain will see the world?
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,673
    boulay said:

    nico679 said:

    maaarsh said:

    https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1799130750366917075

    Interesting idea.👇 Should CCHQ stand down Penny Mordaunt and draft in PM Rishi Sunak for tonight's seven-way BBC election debate? It would be bold and brave on a dreadful day for the Tory leader.

    That would be a good move . I think Sunak turning up and showing some fight would be a risk worth taking .
    Especially if he borrowed Penny’s coronation outfit. Everyone would be speechless and he would win by default.
    OMG that’s so funny . Seriously if I was Sunak I’d go for it but without Penny’s outfit !
  • Options
    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,873
    Flanner said:

    Cicero said:

    eek said:

    @eek FPT

    Well thanks for the heads-up on the Reform Candidate in Tewkesbury. I've been watching out for that on two Sites but neither showed it. This is of some significance for me and other punters.

    A few days ago I put the LDs up as a bet at 7/1 but stressed this should be a lot shorter if Ref stood. It's now 5/1 with a couple of firms and 9/2 with Lads and if you are right (I'm sure you are) that is stonking value. As you shrewdly observed, the nice Labour lady is from Kent and looks no more than a token candidate who will one day be offered a more promising opportunity. The LD candidate assures me that 'Labour is nowhere' and the Yellow team is running them perilously close. This is all before Mr Sunak's half day out at the seaside.

    As always, DYOR, but this looks a good one to me.

    I grabbed it at 5-1 because by the time I saw your post the 7/1 had gone to 9/2.

    If the Lib Dems are winning Tewkesbury, they are clearly going to win Cheltenham and must be looking pretty good for South Cotswolds too. Labour will get Stroud and Forest of Dean. Gloucester is open (the Lib Dems won the locals, but it has been Labour in the past). Could the Tories really be reduced to only one seat in Gloucestershire? If so, then Surrey and several other Wessex counties are also in play.
    The Tories are also on track to getting close to being wiped out in Oxfordshire (which I think was never under the rule of Wessex). Of the 7 seats, I'd say they're likely to hang on to just one, and that'd be Witney, and it wouldn't be astonishing if they lost that too.
    In 1983, they held every single Westminster seat in the county. But then, since the May 2 election this year, they no longer control ANY County or District council in Oxfordshire
    We know that Reform have no real ground game to speak of, whereas the Lib Dems do, so it is going to be interesting to see if media coverage alone can deliver Farage seats. My guess is that without local targeting, his ground game will not be enough to do more than split the vote with the Tories and under that scenario, we could see FPTP giving a terminal kick in the nuts to the Tory Party.

    If we see the Lib Dems tracking up in the next week or so, then it really will look very bleak for the Tories.
  • Options
    chrisbchrisb Posts: 112
    MattW said:

    @eek FPT

    Well thanks for the heads-up on the Reform Candidate in Tewkesbury. I've been watching out for that on two Sites but neither showed it. This is of some significance for me and other punters.

    A few days ago I put the LDs up as a bet at 7/1 but stressed this should be a lot shorter if Ref stood. It's now 5/1 with a couple of firms and 9/2 with Lads and if you are right (I'm sure you are) that is stonking value. As you shrewdly observed, the nice Labour lady is from Kent and looks no more than a token candidate who will one day be offered a more promising opportunity. The LD candidate assures me that 'Labour is nowhere' and the Yellow team is running them perilously close. This is all before Mr Sunak's half day out at the seaside.

    As always, DYOR, but this looks a good one to me.

    I've just been rate-limited by Oddschecker !
    Does anyone know a way around this? It's playing havoc with my ability to scrape their data!
  • Options
    DM_Andy said:

    From the Telegraph reporting on a former GP heckling Sunak in Wiltshire:

    Mr Sunak laughed when an activist interjected “most GPs spend more time on holiday than in a surgery, though”. In response to the heckler, the Prime Minister said: “Right well, so my dad was a GP but my mum was also a pharmacist. So that’s the household I grew up in, my parents dedicated themselves to primary care, I know a thing or two about it. I worked very hard in my mum’s pharmacy.
    Laughing at a member of the public during an election campaign, it's just tone deaf and it's not like he's got the reserve of goodwill anymore to carry him past this stuff.
    She is a Tory member! He laughed at one of his own!
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 26,554
    Andy_JS said:

    Why does Rishi put himself through this. I would just resign. It is tortuous to watch.....the conservatives stand humiliation and defeat must be soul crushing.


    All I can say is: brexit destroyed the right. I see reform as a defensive move for the populists after the ukippification of the conservatives failed. This is a retreat. And the current right will never come back after this. They just don't have the numbers. Being mainly Boomer OAPs the right is numerically in permanent decline. In 2029 and 2034 the situation will be much much worse for the right, and you can forget about brexiteers being able to stop anything.

    The future of the right looks like this. Term 1: ideological purists tear into each other in all out civil war. Term 2: some kind of stability appears and a new generation of centre right, progressive, pro eu millenials come in as juniors. Most of the current party will be gone. Term three: the millial generation take up leadership and begin to forge a new electoral basis. Term four: they win and get to lead the newly eu enrolled uk.

    Hari Seldon has spoken

    Failing to keep most of their promises has put the Tories in this situation, not Brexit as such.
    Their promises were based on Brexit creating a land of milk and honey (20 million other imagined versions of a world were Brexit made things better are also available just ask any Brexit voter). The problem is that Brexit didn't create a brighter future for many people.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,247
    edited June 7
    All 5 constituencies with Sheffield in the name are missing a RefUK candidate. That puts it up to 7 in total I've seen so far.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    nico679 said:

    boulay said:

    nico679 said:

    maaarsh said:

    https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1799130750366917075

    Interesting idea.👇 Should CCHQ stand down Penny Mordaunt and draft in PM Rishi Sunak for tonight's seven-way BBC election debate? It would be bold and brave on a dreadful day for the Tory leader.

    That would be a good move . I think Sunak turning up and showing some fight would be a risk worth taking .
    Especially if he borrowed Penny’s coronation outfit. Everyone would be speechless and he would win by default.
    OMG that’s so funny . Seriously if I was Sunak I’d go for it but without Penny’s outfit !
    I'm not sure he could lift the sword tbh.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Former Labour MP for Kensington Emma Dent Coad is standing again as an independent.

    https://www.rbkc.gov.uk/sites/default/files/media/documents/SoPN Kensington and Bayswater Constituency.pdf

    "Kensington & Bayswater - 10 candidates

    ADAM, Mona - Green Party
    BUCHAN, Felicity - The Conservative Party Candidate
    BURCA, Marc Francis - Reform UK
    DENT COAD, Emma - Independent
    HOUNGBO, William - Liberal Democrat
    O`MAHONY, Una Marie - Party of Women
    PHILLIPS, Roger David - Christian People's Alliance
    POWELL, Joe - Labour Party
    PRINCE ANKIT LOVE, Emperor of India - no description
    STEVENS, John Christopher Courtenay - Rejoin EU"

    I'd be staggered if she retained her deposit.
    @rcs1000 I've PMed you a possible thread header, let me know if I should send it another way.
    Yes! My email is my username at gmail.com
    Sent!
  • Options
    PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 578
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28265958/multi-market?marketIds=1.229664621

    Confusing - the terms for this Reform Defections market say The market will be settled after the publication of statement of persons nominated is released after deadline for nominations close.

    Shouldn’t it have been settled by now?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    ToryJim said:

    Looks like Rishi could get quite literally binned, as the Count is standing in Richmond.

    https://x.com/countbinface/status/1799119807486316592?s=46

    At 13 that's the most candidates I've seen for a seat so far. Holborn & St Pancras (Starmer) has 12, as does Oxford East (Anneliese Dodds). Any with more?
    Don't understand the mentality of these egotists who stand against the likes of Sir Keir in Holborn. They might as well just flush £500 down the loo.
    £500 to meet the next Prime Minister, and be there when he becomes Prime Minister (albeit not in law)? I can see someone with cash to burn thinking that is worth the price.

    I mean, party donors and lobbyists have to pay more than that for the same pleasure.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 20,487
    rcs1000 said:

    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    First! First! First!

    Thank-you for the header.

    I wonder what level the Reform / Farage ceiling of vote share is at?

    (BTW just to make sure you are aware: I sent you a possible header for the weekend earlier via PM. Up to you whether to us it, but it is at least as brilliant as any by @TSE , without the puns.)
    Ah, could you email it to me. It's my username at gmail.
    @rcs1000 Sent.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28265958/multi-market?marketIds=1.229664621

    Confusing - the terms for this Reform Defections market say The market will be settled after the publication of statement of persons nominated is released after deadline for nominations close.

    Shouldn’t it have been settled by now?

    It will take time for them to establish the numbers.
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085
    DM_Andy said:

    From the Telegraph reporting on a former GP heckling Sunak in Wiltshire:

    Mr Sunak laughed when an activist interjected “most GPs spend more time on holiday than in a surgery, though”. In response to the heckler, the Prime Minister said: “Right well, so my dad was a GP but my mum was also a pharmacist. So that’s the household I grew up in, my parents dedicated themselves to primary care, I know a thing or two about it. I worked very hard in my mum’s pharmacy.
    Laughing at a member of the public during an election campaign, it's just tone deaf and it's not like he's got the reserve of goodwill anymore to carry him past this stuff.
    Seriously, there are so many members of the public that should be laughed at. If you come out with a dickish statement such as “most GPs spend more time on holiday than in a surgery” you need to be laughed at. Everyone in the country should be pointing and laughing. Collectively saying “Rishi fucked up about D-day yet he’s still not as idiotic as you”.
  • Options
    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    kle4 said:

    ToryJim said:

    Looks like Rishi could get quite literally binned, as the Count is standing in Richmond.

    https://x.com/countbinface/status/1799119807486316592?s=46

    At 13 that's the most candidates I've seen for a seat so far. Holborn & St Pancras (Starmer) has 12, as does Oxford East (Anneliese Dodds). Any with more?
    Don't understand the mentality of these egotists who stand against the likes of Sir Keir in Holborn. They might as well just flush £500 down the loo.
    £500 to meet the next Prime Minister, and be there when he becomes Prime Minister (albeit not in law)? I can see someone with cash to burn thinking that is worth the price.

    I mean, party donors and lobbyists have to pay more than that for the same pleasure.
    Plus you're pretty much guaranteed to be shown on international TV wearing your silly costume of choice.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,247

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28265958/multi-market?marketIds=1.229664621

    Confusing - the terms for this Reform Defections market say The market will be settled after the publication of statement of persons nominated is released after deadline for nominations close.

    Shouldn’t it have been settled by now?

    Some councils haven't released the SOPNs yet. Don't know if that is important wrt this market.
  • Options
    GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,152
    If the Con campaign continues in the same vein, we could soon be talking about double crossover (Con 4th behind Lab, Ref, LD)
  • Options
    PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 578
    edited June 7
    kle4 said:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28265958/multi-market?marketIds=1.229664621

    Confusing - the terms for this Reform Defections market say The market will be settled after the publication of statement of persons nominated is released after deadline for nominations close.

    Shouldn’t it have been settled by now?

    It will take time for them to establish the numbers.
    That makes sense thanks.

    Is the 0 line free money then? Or is there a small chance there’s a defection that’s been missed somehow.
  • Options
    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,854
    eek said:

    FPT: Ex Tory Georgina Hill standing against Anne Marie Trevelyan as an Ind in North Northumberland, should hive off a few unhappy Con voters. If Reform stand a candidate, it could be Goodnight Berwick.

    Katherine Ann
    (address in the
    Hexham
    Constituency)
    Reform UK is the reform candidate.
    Oh, that's excellent news. Boundary changes might make it more winnable for Labour.
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,048
    boulay said:

    DM_Andy said:

    From the Telegraph reporting on a former GP heckling Sunak in Wiltshire:

    Mr Sunak laughed when an activist interjected “most GPs spend more time on holiday than in a surgery, though”. In response to the heckler, the Prime Minister said: “Right well, so my dad was a GP but my mum was also a pharmacist. So that’s the household I grew up in, my parents dedicated themselves to primary care, I know a thing or two about it. I worked very hard in my mum’s pharmacy.
    Laughing at a member of the public during an election campaign, it's just tone deaf and it's not like he's got the reserve of goodwill anymore to carry him past this stuff.
    Seriously, there are so many members of the public that should be laughed at. If you come out with a dickish statement such as “most GPs spend more time on holiday than in a surgery” you need to be laughed at. Everyone in the country should be pointing and laughing. Collectively saying “Rishi fucked up about D-day yet he’s still not as idiotic as you”.
    I read it that Sunak was laughing in agreement with the activist not against them.

  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,677
    maaarsh said:

    https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1799130750366917075

    Interesting idea.👇 Should CCHQ stand down Penny Mordaunt and draft in PM Rishi Sunak for tonight's seven-way BBC election debate? It would be bold and brave on a dreadful day for the Tory leader.

    If it happens, there might be a chunk of "why should I go out there and eat your shit for you, Rishi?"

    And to be blunt, why should she?

    Trouble is, he'd be rubbish.
  • Options
    A Savanta poll for @Telegraph finds just over two-thirds of voters think Rishi Sunak leaving D-Day events early was unacceptable

    @ChrisHopkins92: “Sunak’s actions this week may well go down as the greatest act of electoral self-harm in modern UK political history”

    https://x.com/DominicPenna/status/1799134594769494142
  • Options
    CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 451

    Why does Rishi put himself through this. I would just resign. It is tortuous to watch.....the conservatives stand humiliation and defeat must be soul crushing.


    All I can say is: brexit destroyed the right. I see reform as a defensive move for the populists after the ukippification of the conservatives failed. This is a retreat. And the current right will never come back after this. They just don't have the numbers. Being mainly Boomer OAPs the right is numerically in permanent decline. In 2029 and 2034 the situation will be much much worse for the right, and you can forget about brexiteers being able to stop anything.

    The future of the right looks like this. Term 1: ideological purists tear into each other in all out civil war. Term 2: some kind of stability appears and a new generation of centre right, progressive, pro eu millenials come in as juniors. Most of the current party will be gone. Term three: the millial generation take up leadership and begin to forge a new electoral basis. Term four: they win and get to lead the newly eu enrolled uk.

    Hari Seldon has spoken

    Equating the EU with liberal progressivism is a very post-Brexit British way of thinking. There's nothing inherently progressive about the integration of European countries.
    That was not my point though. Eu is eu. Progressivism is simply the tolerance of millenials in identity politics.
    If the EU becomes dominated by a Meloni-style right, would it be compatible with your idea of the way the millenial generation in Britain will see the world?
    I don't see that happening.
  • Options
    GP who heckled Sunak:

    "GPs cannot cope with half qualified staff"

    Person in crowd:

    "Most GPs spend more time on holiday than they do in a surgery, love"

    https://x.com/MarwanData/status/1799132371930980569

    Jesus.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,562
    edited June 7
    I’ll say it again. The Labour obituary was written in 1983, 1987, 1992, 2015, 2017, and 2019. The Tory obituary was written in 1997, 2001 (remember all those articles about the LibDems replacing them?), and 2005.

    The wheel turns.

    Farage won’t be here forever, and won’t withstand a good Tory leader doing good work in opposition; and the Tory brand will recover.

    They’ll be back.

    However one does have to wonder quite how low they will go, and my predictions are sometimes wrong (see my “reverse 2010” election prediction competition…).

    I might be right about Labour getting 38/39% in the end though! I just didn’t factor in the Tories going sub-20…
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774
    Galloway: “Do you think God is listening to someone who is praying one day and voting for Keir Starmer the day before? What kind of a believer would that be?”

    https://x.com/jaheale/status/1799113198555267525
  • Options
    @NorstatUKPolls
    GB-wide Poll June 4-5

    Westminster Voting Intention
    Con 22%
    Lab 45%
    Lib Dem 10%
    Reform UK 14%
    Green 5%

    48% of 2019 Conservative voters think Nigel Farage becoming an MP would be a good thing for the country.

    https://x.com/NorstatUKPolls/status/1799113768225603734
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    A Savanta poll for @Telegraph finds just over two-thirds of voters think Rishi Sunak leaving D-Day events early was unacceptable

    @ChrisHopkins92: “Sunak’s actions this week may well go down as the greatest act of electoral self-harm in modern UK political history”

    https://x.com/DominicPenna/status/1799134594769494142

    The apology which amplified it was.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    maaarsh said:

    https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1799130750366917075

    Interesting idea.👇 Should CCHQ stand down Penny Mordaunt and draft in PM Rishi Sunak for tonight's seven-way BBC election debate? It would be bold and brave on a dreadful day for the Tory leader.

    If it happens, there might be a chunk of "why should I go out there and eat your shit for you, Rishi?"

    And to be blunt, why should she?

    Trouble is, he'd be rubbish.
    She has nothing to lose doing it. Not much to gain either perhaps, but at least the possibility of looking credible and good.
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085
    DM_Andy said:

    boulay said:

    DM_Andy said:

    From the Telegraph reporting on a former GP heckling Sunak in Wiltshire:

    Mr Sunak laughed when an activist interjected “most GPs spend more time on holiday than in a surgery, though”. In response to the heckler, the Prime Minister said: “Right well, so my dad was a GP but my mum was also a pharmacist. So that’s the household I grew up in, my parents dedicated themselves to primary care, I know a thing or two about it. I worked very hard in my mum’s pharmacy.
    Laughing at a member of the public during an election campaign, it's just tone deaf and it's not like he's got the reserve of goodwill anymore to carry him past this stuff.
    Seriously, there are so many members of the public that should be laughed at. If you come out with a dickish statement such as “most GPs spend more time on holiday than in a surgery” you need to be laughed at. Everyone in the country should be pointing and laughing. Collectively saying “Rishi fucked up about D-day yet he’s still not as idiotic as you”.
    I read it that Sunak was laughing in agreement with the activist not against them.

    He was probably trying to be polite instead of just calling them an absolute moron. Maybe we need more honest communication. Party leaders do a night at the Palladium where they take questions, the audience try and roast them and the politician roasts back. Laughs in their faces no holds barred. A big public exchange of ideas hosted by Sue Perkins. They could call it “The great British Mass Debate”. At least it would bring a bit of honesty into politics.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 26,554
    biggles said:

    I’ll say it again. The Labour obituary was written in 1983, 1987, 1992, 2015, 2017, and 2019. The Tory obituary was written in 1997, 2001 (remember all those articles about the LibDems replacing them?), and 2005.

    The wheel turns.

    Farage won’t be here forever, and won’t withstand a good Tory leader doing good work in opposition; and the Tory brand will recover.

    They’ll be back.

    However one does have to wonder quite how low they will go, and my predictions are sometimes wrong (see my “reverse 2010” election prediction competition…).

    I might be right about Labour getting 38/39% in the end though! I just didn’t factor in the Tories going sub-20…

    If the Tories are sub 20, Labour will be above 40%...
  • Options
    GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,152
    kle4 said:

    maaarsh said:

    https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1799130750366917075

    Interesting idea.👇 Should CCHQ stand down Penny Mordaunt and draft in PM Rishi Sunak for tonight's seven-way BBC election debate? It would be bold and brave on a dreadful day for the Tory leader.

    If it happens, there might be a chunk of "why should I go out there and eat your shit for you, Rishi?"

    And to be blunt, why should she?

    Trouble is, he'd be rubbish.
    She has nothing to lose doing it. Not much to gain either perhaps, but at least the possibility of looking credible and good.
    She needs to save her seat and getting some publicity can't hurt
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,048
    boulay said:

    DM_Andy said:

    boulay said:

    DM_Andy said:

    From the Telegraph reporting on a former GP heckling Sunak in Wiltshire:

    Mr Sunak laughed when an activist interjected “most GPs spend more time on holiday than in a surgery, though”. In response to the heckler, the Prime Minister said: “Right well, so my dad was a GP but my mum was also a pharmacist. So that’s the household I grew up in, my parents dedicated themselves to primary care, I know a thing or two about it. I worked very hard in my mum’s pharmacy.
    Laughing at a member of the public during an election campaign, it's just tone deaf and it's not like he's got the reserve of goodwill anymore to carry him past this stuff.
    Seriously, there are so many members of the public that should be laughed at. If you come out with a dickish statement such as “most GPs spend more time on holiday than in a surgery” you need to be laughed at. Everyone in the country should be pointing and laughing. Collectively saying “Rishi fucked up about D-day yet he’s still not as idiotic as you”.
    I read it that Sunak was laughing in agreement with the activist not against them.

    He was probably trying to be polite instead of just calling them an absolute moron. Maybe we need more honest communication. Party leaders do a night at the Palladium where they take questions, the audience try and roast them and the politician roasts back. Laughs in their faces no holds barred. A big public exchange of ideas hosted by Sue Perkins. They could call it “The great British Mass Debate”. At least it would bring a bit of honesty into politics.
    I've seen the video clip of it. From my point of view Sunak comes over very badly. I have a bit of a habit of nervous laughter and I think that's what it was, but that's why I realised very early that I didn't have the skills to be a candidate. Sunak's not very good at dealing with difficult situations on the campaign.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,562
    eek said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Why does Rishi put himself through this. I would just resign. It is tortuous to watch.....the conservatives stand humiliation and defeat must be soul crushing.


    All I can say is: brexit destroyed the right. I see reform as a defensive move for the populists after the ukippification of the conservatives failed. This is a retreat. And the current right will never come back after this. They just don't have the numbers. Being mainly Boomer OAPs the right is numerically in permanent decline. In 2029 and 2034 the situation will be much much worse for the right, and you can forget about brexiteers being able to stop anything.

    The future of the right looks like this. Term 1: ideological purists tear into each other in all out civil war. Term 2: some kind of stability appears and a new generation of centre right, progressive, pro eu millenials come in as juniors. Most of the current party will be gone. Term three: the millial generation take up leadership and begin to forge a new electoral basis. Term four: they win and get to lead the newly eu enrolled uk.

    Hari Seldon has spoken

    Failing to keep most of their promises has put the Tories in this situation, not Brexit as such.
    Their promises were based on Brexit creating a land of milk and honey (20 million other imagined versions of a world were Brexit made things better are also available just ask any Brexit voter). The problem is that Brexit didn't create a brighter future for many people.
    It did allow for a world where we’re not in the EU though…. And that’s a win.

    “Right to leave” still gets 30-35% in the polls and the best “rejoin” figures (different from right/wrong to leave) are only just over 50%.

    This will be as bad as that polling gets for Brexit. It’s not that disliked. It’s way more popular than, for example, the Tory Party.


  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774

    Why does Rishi put himself through this. I would just resign. It is tortuous to watch.....the conservatives stand humiliation and defeat must be soul crushing.


    All I can say is: brexit destroyed the right. I see reform as a defensive move for the populists after the ukippification of the conservatives failed. This is a retreat. And the current right will never come back after this. They just don't have the numbers. Being mainly Boomer OAPs the right is numerically in permanent decline. In 2029 and 2034 the situation will be much much worse for the right, and you can forget about brexiteers being able to stop anything.

    The future of the right looks like this. Term 1: ideological purists tear into each other in all out civil war. Term 2: some kind of stability appears and a new generation of centre right, progressive, pro eu millenials come in as juniors. Most of the current party will be gone. Term three: the millial generation take up leadership and begin to forge a new electoral basis. Term four: they win and get to lead the newly eu enrolled uk.

    Hari Seldon has spoken

    Equating the EU with liberal progressivism is a very post-Brexit British way of thinking. There's nothing inherently progressive about the integration of European countries.
    That was not my point though. Eu is eu. Progressivism is simply the tolerance of millenials in identity politics.
    If the EU becomes dominated by a Meloni-style right, would it be compatible with your idea of the way the millenial generation in Britain will see the world?
    I don't see that happening.
    You have links with Denmark, don’t you? Where would their asylum and immigration policies fit on the British political spectrum?
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,326
    For all those of you who are or have fathers, please be reminded that UK Father's Day is June 16
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,733
    TimS said:

    I find the D-day stuff a bit overblown to be honest.

    I doubt many people are actually offended by it. In fact I don’t think - with a few exceptions - politicians are even pretending to be that offended. It’s the sheer political idiocy of the move and the fact he did it to do a micro-political interview to “defend accusations of lies” that creates a sense of farce.

    By contrast people really were upset by partygate (though I struggled to be - but then I wasn’t affected by not being able to visit relatives in hospital).
    Yes. It is a bit partygate-esque. I am never sure whether people really are furious about partygate or whether we're just told we should be. I have always been far more annoyed by Boris giving us the lockdown regulations in the first place than by him wisely ignoring them.

    I really don't know what's going on with the Tory campaign - I was expecting it to be dreadful, but not this dreadful.
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,146
    viewcode said:

    For all those of you who are or have fathers, please be reminded that UK Father's Day is June 16

    Thanks Viewcode. I will remind my son.
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,739
    edited June 7
    I did actually feel sorry for Rishi Sunak in that interview today.
    He had an ashen and almost broken look just behind the usual coiffured smile that he always keeps on, as if he hadn't slept a wink.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,217
    maaarsh said:

    https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1799130750366917075

    Interesting idea.👇 Should CCHQ stand down Penny Mordaunt and draft in PM Rishi Sunak for tonight's seven-way BBC election debate? It would be bold and brave on a dreadful day for the Tory leader.

    Would impartiality rules mean they have to bring in Starmer as well? Not sure it’s a good idea anyway as he won’t be prepped.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited June 7
    Everything’s going so well…

    The launch of Labour’s new Kemptown candidate Chris Ward’s campaign was interrupted this afternoon by anti-Israel demonstrators.

    About a dozen protesters attended the meeting at St George’s Church in Kemptown Village.

    As one speaker, Caroline O’Reilly, harangued Mr Ward and senior Labour politician Chris Bryant, others clapped and clicked their fingers in approval.

    After about five minutes, Mr Ward, Mr Bryant and other party members left the church……


    “I don’t think you realise the depth of unhappiness that it’s caused. Lloyd was elected by us. You have not been elected by us.

    “From what my research says, you are not the person who will represent my interests and thsoe of my children and grandchilden, and …”

    Chris Bryant then tried to speak, telling her “no more ands”.

    Mrs O’Reilly shouted back: “Don’t tell me no more ands. I’m just as entitled to my opinion.


    https://www.brightonandhovenews.org/2024/06/07/gaza-campaigners-disrupt-new-kemptown-labour-candidates-campaign-launch/#google_vignette
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085
    viewcode said:

    For all those of you who are or have fathers, please be reminded that UK Father's Day is June 16

    I had an email promoting Father’s Day bookings from a pub/restaurant group the other week which nicely had a tab you could click if you didn’t want Father’s Day reminders because it was a bit painful which I thought was a good sensitive touch when still raw.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,733

    GP who heckled Sunak:

    "GPs cannot cope with half qualified staff"

    Person in crowd:

    "Most GPs spend more time on holiday than they do in a surgery, love"

    https://x.com/MarwanData/status/1799132371930980569

    Jesus.

    She's right. That GP should fuck off. They really are the unacceptable face of the NHS.
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,048
    Does this win a prize for the worst bar chart in GE24?
    https://x.com/emmadentcoad/status/1799127950995948005
    Only Emma Dent Coad can beat the Tories in Kensington and Bayswater.
  • Options
    sladeslade Posts: 1,971
    My local Lib Dem candidate is doing a Ph.D on Autism in the Stone Age.
  • Options
    StereodogStereodog Posts: 485
    If the Lib Dems did find themselves the official opposition with about 60 seats then they’re going to find it very hard to carry out that function properly. They would have to find a shadow minister for each department for a start. Then there would be the question of how Select Committee places would be split if every Lib Dem MP is having their time taken up shadowing a department. As a Lib Dem supporter I’d love to find out mind you.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,502
    nico679 said:

    maaarsh said:

    https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1799130750366917075

    Interesting idea.👇 Should CCHQ stand down Penny Mordaunt and draft in PM Rishi Sunak for tonight's seven-way BBC election debate? It would be bold and brave on a dreadful day for the Tory leader.

    That would be a good move . I think Sunak turning up and showing some fight would be a risk worth taking .
    No it would be a disaster, he doesn't want to give Farage any more publicity. He should stick to his head to heads with Starmer
  • Options
    mickydroymickydroy Posts: 314
    chrisb said:

    MattW said:

    @eek FPT

    Well thanks for the heads-up on the Reform Candidate in Tewkesbury. I've been watching out for that on two Sites but neither showed it. This is of some significance for me and other punters.

    A few days ago I put the LDs up as a bet at 7/1 but stressed this should be a lot shorter if Ref stood. It's now 5/1 with a couple of firms and 9/2 with Lads and if you are right (I'm sure you are) that is stonking value. As you shrewdly observed, the nice Labour lady is from Kent and looks no more than a token candidate who will one day be offered a more promising opportunity. The LD candidate assures me that 'Labour is nowhere' and the Yellow team is running them perilously close. This is all before Mr Sunak's half day out at the seaside.

    As always, DYOR, but this looks a good one to me.

    I've just been rate-limited by Oddschecker !
    Does anyone know a way around this? It's playing havoc with my ability to scrape their data!
    There are very few odd comparison sites out there, not anywhere as good as oddschecker anyway, and they know that
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    biggles said:

    I’ll say it again. The Labour obituary was written in 1983, 1987, 1992, 2015, 2017, and 2019. The Tory obituary was written in 1997, 2001 (remember all those articles about the LibDems replacing them?), and 2005.

    The wheel turns.

    Farage won’t be here forever, and won’t withstand a good Tory leader doing good work in opposition; and the Tory brand will recover.

    They’ll be back.

    However one does have to wonder quite how low they will go, and my predictions are sometimes wrong (see my “reverse 2010” election prediction competition…).

    I might be right about Labour getting 38/39% in the end though! I just didn’t factor in the Tories going sub-20…

    I don't think that's right, my recollection is that only 1983 and 1997 were anywhere close to 'obituary' elections and even then there was little sense that the party under the cosh might go forever.

    This election could be a 1931 style collapse, and to be fair to your argument, Labour did come back from that spectacularly 14 years and one world war later.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    DougSeal said:

    maaarsh said:

    https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1799130750366917075

    Interesting idea.👇 Should CCHQ stand down Penny Mordaunt and draft in PM Rishi Sunak for tonight's seven-way BBC election debate? It would be bold and brave on a dreadful day for the Tory leader.

    Would impartiality rules mean they have to bring in Starmer as well? Not sure it’s a good idea anyway as he won’t be prepped.
    Equal opportunity to attend doesn't mean both have to.
  • Options
    pm215pm215 Posts: 1,027
    Stereodog said:

    If the Lib Dems did find themselves the official opposition with about 60 seats then they’re going to find it very hard to carry out that function properly. They would have to find a shadow minister for each department for a start. Then there would be the question of how Select Committee places would be split if every Lib Dem MP is having their time taken up shadowing a department. As a Lib Dem supporter I’d love to find out mind you.

    We could have a coalition opposition :-)
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,308
    mickydroy said:

    chrisb said:

    MattW said:

    @eek FPT

    Well thanks for the heads-up on the Reform Candidate in Tewkesbury. I've been watching out for that on two Sites but neither showed it. This is of some significance for me and other punters.

    A few days ago I put the LDs up as a bet at 7/1 but stressed this should be a lot shorter if Ref stood. It's now 5/1 with a couple of firms and 9/2 with Lads and if you are right (I'm sure you are) that is stonking value. As you shrewdly observed, the nice Labour lady is from Kent and looks no more than a token candidate who will one day be offered a more promising opportunity. The LD candidate assures me that 'Labour is nowhere' and the Yellow team is running them perilously close. This is all before Mr Sunak's half day out at the seaside.

    As always, DYOR, but this looks a good one to me.

    I've just been rate-limited by Oddschecker !
    Does anyone know a way around this? It's playing havoc with my ability to scrape their data!
    There are very few odd comparison sites out there, not anywhere as good as oddschecker anyway, and they know that
    Betgenius used to be the best...
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    edited June 7
    I am always amazed when leading politicians don't seem to know how to handle a heckle. Its like being a comedian or a magician you are going to get incoming, so you have a prepared responses. To me, it would even seem like a sensible thing to go and do a comedian workshop thingy.

    Now you can't go all Jimmy Carr I f##ked your mum, but now had is it to say Sir, Sir, now Sir, lets keep it civil and have a grown up debate. I am happy to answer your question, do you have one for me...

    Even if it results in somebody screaming and shouting at you, and Politics Joe goes P'OWNED...the general public just look at person doing the shouting and think what a wanker.

    I am reminded of the guy (who turned out to be Lib Dem activist) who ambushed Cameron with his disabled son and ranted at him. He was the one who ended up looking bad not Cameron who tried to engage politely with him.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    DM_Andy said:

    Does this win a prize for the worst bar chart in GE24?
    https://x.com/emmadentcoad/status/1799127950995948005
    Only Emma Dent Coad can beat the Tories in Kensington and Bayswater.

    That's beyond creative graphics and use of data. I don't know where the legal line is, but it feels beyond a joke.
This discussion has been closed.