🚨 NEW: Controversial priest and commentator Calvin Robinson has been expelled from the Tories for allegedly supporting Tommy Robinson and posting anti-Muslim tweets
It’s all happening today
Didn’t know he was a member. Might he be standing for Reform somewhere?
"Politics UK @PolitlcsUK · Follow 🚨 BREAKING: Tory candidate for Spen Valley Adam Gregg has quit after inappropriate photos of underage girls he posted online resurfaced
He quit minutes before the deadline for candidates to enter/withdraw
Just to say, I don't want a humungous Labour majority at the price of empowering Farage. I'll take the vanilla landslide.
I agree, but I don't think that's going to happen. Reform are not actually going to poll 18%, or even 15%, and they're not going to win more than one or two seats. Look at that Torquay council result, in a Brexit voting and very elderly area. 8.5%, at the height of the Farage bubble. Tories 42%.
Just to say, I don't want a humungous Labour majority at the price of empowering Farage. I'll take the vanilla landslide.
A 30 to 40 seat majority would do me.
I am sensing I might be wrong about 1992 redux. That is not necessarily my fault. I couldn't have countenanced the sub-Johnson clown show. Although there is nearly a month to go, so it's not a done deal yet
Truss would have had more chance of turning things around.
They had 11000 odd votes last time. Can’t see it not being a massive Labour win.
Reform UK will be looking closely at Rotherham if they're the main "to the right-of-centre" party contesting the seat. Maybe we'll see a few Farage visits to the constituency.
🚨 NEW: Controversial priest and commentator Calvin Robinson has been expelled from the Tories for allegedly supporting Tommy Robinson and posting anti-Muslim tweets
It’s all happening today
Never occurred to me he was still in the Tories.
He's an absolute nutter. Genuinely off his rocker.
I’m surprised he hasn’t been defrocked by now.
The Church of England never frocked him in the first place. His deaconing was with the (fringe) Free Church of England and his pristine by the (I had to look them up) Nordic Catholic Church.
Ah so he’s pretending a religious authority he doesn’t possess. Figures as he comes across as about as Christian as the Ayatollah.
Yes that was wrong as well. The Lib Dems were 900 votes behind but in 2nd place in 2023 and no Lab candidate. I suspect the comparison was with a previous year.
Feeling slightly smug that I tipped Labour 500+ seats at 25/1 on Betfair Exchange a week ago (currently trading at 8/1 over there). Stuck twenty quid on it intending it to be a trading bet, reckon I will keep it now for the lolz.
Fwiw, I don't think Labour will reach 500 seats but I do see them coming close. 450+ feels nailed on, unless anything changes.
You feel smug! Consider how Peter the Smug Punter from Smugness feels about his prediction in Benpointers Excellent Competition.
I look at my entry hourly, on the hour. If there is one thing that ought to make you guys seriously think about voting for Rishi it is the prospect of how insufferable I will be if my extravagant prediction turns out to be the closest.
🚨 NEW: Controversial priest and commentator Calvin Robinson has been expelled from the Tories for allegedly supporting Tommy Robinson and posting anti-Muslim tweets
It’s all happening today
Never occurred to me he was still in the Tories.
He's an absolute nutter. Genuinely off his rocker.
I’m surprised he hasn’t been defrocked by now.
The Church of England never frocked him in the first place. His deaconing was with the (fringe) Free Church of England and his pristine by the (I had to look them up) Nordic Catholic Church.
Ah so he’s pretending a religious authority he doesn’t possess. Figures as he comes across as about as Christian as the Ayatollah.
They had 11000 odd votes last time. Can’t see it not being a massive Labour win.
Reform UK will be looking closely at Rotherham if they're the main "to the right-of-centre" party contesting the seat. Maybe we'll see a few Farage visits to the constituency.
South Yorks is fertile ground for RUK. If they do break through and win seats some of them will be there.
Feeling slightly smug that I tipped Labour 500+ seats at 25/1 on Betfair Exchange a week ago (currently trading at 8/1 over there). Stuck twenty quid on it intending it to be a trading bet, reckon I will keep it now for the lolz.
Fwiw, I don't think Labour will reach 500 seats but I do see them coming close. 450+ feels nailed on, unless anything changes.
You feel smug! Consider how Peter the Smug Punter from Smugness feels about his prediction in Benpointers Excellent Competition.
I look at my entry hourly, on the hour. If there is one thing that ought to make you guys seriously think about voting for Rishi it is the prospect of how insufferable I will be if my extravagant prediction turns out to be the closest.
Ah. Spen Valley. A Tory chance if things were going sort of OK for them. Might be why my local list isn't up yet.
And they're in - the withdrawal shown and a last minute Con nominee parachuted in from an address in Altrincham & Sale West
Full slates of the 5 parties, no WPGB, but a couple of Muslim named Inds in Spen & in Dewsbury
Colne Valley - big 5 plus YP, McCartney defending for Con Huddersfield - big 5 only, no defending MP Dewsbury & Batley - big 5 plus Muslim Ind, no defending MP Spen Valley - big 5 plus Muslim Ind, plus detail of the Tory substitution, Leadbeater defending for Lab though nominal Con seat in 2019 (she chose here over D&B)
Yes that was wrong as well. The Lib Dems were 900 votes behind but in 2nd place in 2023 and no Lab candidate. I suspect the comparison was with a previous year.
Thanks.
I note a poor Reform vote in prime Brexitland territory.
REFUK likely to be between 520 and 590 as per TomorrowsMPs
My ‘CON vs REFUK vote share’ bet doesn’t look as good because of that - traded out a portion of it, but I’m hoping I’ll be able to capitalise on a post D Day gate and Farage debate bounce before trading out the rest.
And if Reform are closer to 590 it could be fine either way.
Look, this is supposed to be top secret but I just can’t sit by and see Rishi eviscerated unfairly. Yesterday was final dress rehearsal ahead of the Taylor Swift concert in Edinburgh tonight where he’s performing a duet medley with her of “So Long London”, “Cruel Summer” and “Look what you made me do”.
Worth noting that the Labour candidate is from Chatham (Kent) so I suspect the Lib Dem candidate is going to be the none Tory candidate. My 5/1 odds on the Lib Dems winning looks a decent bet.
No RefUK candidate in Cheltenham. That makes at least 2 short of a full slate.
Won't save Alex Chalk, I'm afraid.
That is a real shame. He’s a very bright, articulate and considerate chap who is always on top of his brief. Hopefully at some point he will get another go if he’s not totally disillusioned and doesn’t decide to just follow the money in law.
"Politics UK @PolitlcsUK · Follow 🚨 BREAKING: Tory candidate for Spen Valley Adam Gregg has quit after inappropriate photos of underage girls he posted online resurfaced
He quit minutes before the deadline for candidates to enter/withdraw
What on Earth? Hope this has been reported to the police?
'Inappropriate' could just mean anything. Enough to trigger a panic.
What we will end up with is people breaking all these rules and getting elected anyway because people are fed up with 'cancel culture', as is likely to happen with Trump in the US later this year.
ANME update: We have a fifth candidate, one Jo Hart. Google the election agent, I think this is a Reform candidate.
Someone's updated the Wikipedia page now with that new candidate, agreeing with me that it's a Reform one. So, not helpful to @RochdalePioneers if he wants to court the Conservative voters. A few of them are bound to go to her.
We need to crowdsource snark for him to throw at his opponents. We adopt RP as the PB candidate and see what ridiculousness we can give him to use against his opponents. Donations to a charity of his choice if he uses any of our lines in public.
"Reeves is, I hear, looking very closely at an array of tax increases on wealth, and the creation of new council tax bands for more expensive homes is at the top of her list", writes @tnewtondunn
"Reeves is, I hear, looking very closely at an array of tax increases on wealth, and the creation of new council tax bands for more expensive homes is at the top of her list", writes @tnewtondunn
Tell us something we don't know - the biggest question is based on 1989 values or a revaluation exercise (which actually wouldn't be that difficult to do nowadays given prices are available).
Just to say, I don't want a humungous Labour majority at the price of empowering Farage. I'll take the vanilla landslide.
I agree, but I don't think that's going to happen. Reform are not actually going to poll 18%, or even 15%, and they're not going to win more than one or two seats. Look at that Torquay council result, in a Brexit voting and very elderly area. 8.5%, at the height of the Farage bubble. Tories 42%.
The Deplorable demographic is approx 15% of the population, I'd say. Litmus question would be do you like Donald Trump? That fingers them and it's of the order 15%. Maybe a touch higher. If you can get most of them, that's a solid base from which to stretch towards break through and seats. I reckon with Farage in play and the Cons in meltdown we might see that. But I hope we don't.
Feeling slightly smug that I tipped Labour 500+ seats at 25/1 on Betfair Exchange a week ago (currently trading at 8/1 over there). Stuck twenty quid on it intending it to be a trading bet, reckon I will keep it now for the lolz.
Fwiw, I don't think Labour will reach 500 seats but I do see them coming close. 450+ feels nailed on, unless anything changes.
You feel smug! Consider how Peter the Smug Punter from Smugness feels about his prediction in Benpointers Excellent Competition.
I look at my entry hourly, on the hour. If there is one thing that ought to make you guys seriously think about voting for Rishi it is the prospect of how insufferable I will be if my extravagant prediction turns out to be the closest.
Majority of 245 since you ask.
I think that majority may be on the low side....
It's all a bit of fun so I am loathe to be serious about it, but I have to say I was surprised to find I was so much higher than everyone else. All I did was key some recent poll averages into Electoral Calculus and that's what it gave me. Why did others not do something similar? More seriously, what does that tell you about the betting odds? I think the value is by and large still with Labour. Punters are just not getting their heads around what the polls are telling us because they just refuse to believe the outcome will be that extraordinary. It may not be. But it may be. Nor is there any reason to suppose it will not be even more extraordinary.
If Ben were re-running the comp now, I'd be going 300+, but this time I wouldn't expect to be the only.
"Politics UK @PolitlcsUK · Follow 🚨 BREAKING: Tory candidate for Spen Valley Adam Gregg has quit after inappropriate photos of underage girls he posted online resurfaced
He quit minutes before the deadline for candidates to enter/withdraw
What on Earth? Hope this has been reported to the police?
'Inappropriate' could just mean anything. Enough to trigger a panic.
What we will end up with is people breaking all these rules and getting elected anyway because people are fed up with 'cancel culture', as is likely to happen with Trump in the US later this year.
Is not wanting someone who is guilty of multiple frauds and was found by a jury to have sexually assaulted someone considered “cancel culture”?
Just to say, I don't want a humungous Labour majority at the price of empowering Farage. I'll take the vanilla landslide.
I agree, but I don't think that's going to happen. Reform are not actually going to poll 18%, or even 15%, and they're not going to win more than one or two seats. Look at that Torquay council result, in a Brexit voting and very elderly area. 8.5%, at the height of the Farage bubble. Tories 42%.
The Deplorable demographic is approx 15% of the population, I'd say. Litmus question would be do you like Donald Trump? That fingers them and it's of the order 15%. Maybe a touch higher. If you can get most of them, that's a solid base from which to stretch towards break through and seats. I reckon with Farage in play and the Cons in meltdown we might see that. But I hope we don't.
So you spend years moaning about the Tories and then when they're at deaths door you want them back .
"Reeves is, I hear, looking very closely at an array of tax increases on wealth, and the creation of new council tax bands for more expensive homes is at the top of her list", writes @tnewtondunn
Sources say Labour manifesto has been confirmed but not unanimously - Unite unable to endorse because of party’s position on fire & rehire and oil and gas licence ban.
I have just received some Lithic Lovers Monthly travel commissions
If all this pans out it means that in the next 10-12 months I have to go Brittany (again!), Normandy, Uzbekistan, Canada, the USA, Montenegro, Japan, Colombia, El Salvador, Thailand, Cambodia, Italy/Slovenia
I say this not to boast but to - OK I say this to boast
Who are half of the people in the Leadership debate?
From the top left. Ange the Tory beater-upper, Penny the Diver, Mr Garage, Daisy Wotsit, and then I run out of names.
The next chap has clearly just sat in a puddle on a park bench, from the 'ick my Y-fronts are damp from below' forced rictus smile. SNP?
Then the person from Plaid Cymru.
And then the Green?
Bottom row, left to right. Farage (Reform); Daisy Cooper (Lib Dem); Rhun ap Iorwerth (Plaid Cymru); Carla Denyer (Green); Stephen Flynn (SNP)
Embarrassing to forget Cooper.
My grandpa was a Cooper, and used to be one in a family toolmaking company in Sheffield; I still have a few of them.
You are so on-trend claiming descent from a toolmaker. I’m looking forward to summer parties to find out what type of tools people I meet fathers’ made whilst Sir Keir is still a thing.
I have just received some Lithic Lovers Monthly travel commissions
If all this pans out it means that in the next 10-12 months I have to go Brittany (again!), Normandy, Uzbekistan, Canada, the USA, Montenegro, Japan, Colombia, El Salvador, Thailand, Cambodia, Italy/Slovenia
I say this not to boast but to - OK I say this to boast
Disappointed you missed the opportunity to say hit Brittany one more time, tbh.
ANME update: We have a fifth candidate, one Jo Hart. Google the election agent, I think this is a Reform candidate.
Someone's updated the Wikipedia page now with that new candidate, agreeing with me that it's a Reform one. So, not helpful to @RochdalePioneers if he wants to court the Conservative voters. A few of them are bound to go to her.
We need to crowdsource snark for him to throw at his opponents. We adopt RP as the PB candidate and see what ridiculousness we can give him to use against his opponents. Donations to a charity of his choice if he uses any of our lines in public.
Already been doing my best. Though I hope the SNP candidate is reading PB, out of fairness.
ANME update: We have a fifth candidate, one Jo Hart. Google the election agent, I think this is a Reform candidate.
Someone's updated the Wikipedia page now with that new candidate, agreeing with me that it's a Reform one. So, not helpful to @RochdalePioneers if he wants to court the Conservative voters. A few of them are bound to go to her.
Lets be honest here - anyone who might vote for Farage wasn't going to vote for me. Let Reform split the hardcore Tory vote. I am now pitching myself as the only candidate who lives and works in the constituency who can stop the SNP.
"Only we can stop the SNP" was the David Duguid pitch. Screw it, I've stolen it.
Good to see Reform not jumping up further. Also good to see LD slowly creeping up in the last few polls. Green remains pretty resilient, which is impressive considering virtually zero coverage or indeed knowledge of their policies.
Just for good measure it's LLG 59, RefCon 35. In line with range of most pollsters in the last few months so the main change is Con-Ref churn. Highest LLG has been is around 62-63, highest RefCon gets is 37ish.
Starmer is now not bad on the ratings, +16 so not that different to Cameron.
Sunak on -32
It makes you wonder what Sunaks going to do for the next 4 weeks. Starmer will be watching the football.
If Conservative candidates have anything to do with it, he'll go to live on a farm where he will be very happy and no we can't go to see him.
I mean, you can't dump your candidate for PM mid-campaign. You would look stupid. Especially having dumped his two predecessors. But there comes a point where that would be better than four weeks of this.
I think SKS might have a spare sanctuary for put-out-to-pastures going.
In the debate tonight, Rayner is going to complain that this election was their chance to get themselves across, and explain to the voters the detail and minutia of all their plans for government, but Sunak is deliberately drowning this out and hogging the narrative, with constant stories of his own ineptitude.
Senior Labour sources are upset the voters will go into election day still unclear what Labours actual plans are. They believed the focus of the campaign would be on them and their policies, and suspect Sunak deliberately pulled his Dunkirk Moment stunt to continue to lock Labour out from its deserved special moment in the spotlight.
What's your preview on the all-important Battle of the Big Hair?
Any inside track from the Beeb's hair and makeup team?
Red Angela for the win or Blue Penny to sail away with victory?
There will be plenty of other hair on the platform… well, from six of the debaters at least, so we should be fair and divide attention equally amongst it all?
What would they do in make up with Stephen from Scotland? Too glossy and it could reflect the lights, and prove a distraction advantage when he’s speaking? So a Matt finish on the old egg shell?
The Tory answers clearly laid out by Sunak, for his party to follow - waiting lists are down, boat crossings are down, pensioners have never paid tax, Rwanda will be a fabulous deterrent, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do most of it.
To what extent is everyone else lined up now with responses, soundbites, even cutting jokes to each of those ridiculous lies. So tonight really is all about Penny. How does she answer?
If I were Penny I’d just go rogue to be honest. What’s the worst that could happen?
What? Just go up and chin Rayner? Yeah that might work.
Penny needs to focus on holding her seat, where she is behind but not doomed according to the YouGov MRP. Try and crowbar in a few references to Portsmouth!
She might win the debate if she throws in her old party trick of answering every question with the word "cock" in her reply.
Who are half of the people in the Leadership debate?
From the top left. Ange the Tory beater-upper, Penny the Diver, Mr Garage, Daisy Wotsit, and then I run out of names.
The next chap has clearly just sat in a puddle on a park bench, from the 'ick my Y-fronts are damp from below' forced rictus smile. SNP?
Then the person from Plaid Cymru.
And then the Green?
Bottom row, left to right. Farage (Reform); Daisy Cooper (Lib Dem); Rhun ap Iorwerth (Plaid Cymru); Carla Denyer (Green); Stephen Flynn (SNP)
Embarrassing to forget Cooper.
My grandpa was a Cooper, and used to be one in a family toolmaking company in Sheffield; I still have a few of them.
Do you mention your family were toolmakers every time you are interviewed, Matt?
I've never been interviewed.
Except by the local Councillor canvassing, and she did not get a word in edgeways because I was having a complain about grandmas in wheelchairs and mobility scooters not being able to get into the local park to take their grand kids to the playground because it had a barrier on it designed to keep out Schrodinger's ASBO Motorcyclist. That lets motorcycles through but blocks lawful users !
The barrier was removed the next summer. And Council money invested in one about 10cm wider, which still blocked the same people.
Which is on my little list for removal when I get round to it.
ANME update: We have a fifth candidate, one Jo Hart. Google the election agent, I think this is a Reform candidate.
Someone's updated the Wikipedia page now with that new candidate, agreeing with me that it's a Reform one. So, not helpful to @RochdalePioneers if he wants to court the Conservative voters. A few of them are bound to go to her.
We need to crowdsource snark for him to throw at his opponents. We adopt RP as the PB candidate and see what ridiculousness we can give him to use against his opponents. Donations to a charity of his choice if he uses any of our lines in public.
We're formally launching the campaign tomorrow - 10am in Banff at the Mercat Cross. Followed by a busy weekend of door-knocking and video shooting.
There's a hustings in Cullen on Thursday 20th - have already imagining how I am going to speak to the leader of the Scottish Tories...
Who are half of the people in the Leadership debate?
From the top left. Ange the Tory beater-upper, Penny the Diver, Mr Garage, Daisy Wotsit, and then I run out of names.
The next chap has clearly just sat in a puddle on a park bench, from the 'ick my Y-fronts are damp from below' forced rictus smile. SNP?
Then the person from Plaid Cymru.
And then the Green?
Bottom row, left to right. Farage (Reform); Daisy Cooper (Lib Dem); Rhun ap Iorwerth (Plaid Cymru); Carla Denyer (Green); Stephen Flynn (SNP)
Embarrassing to forget Cooper.
My grandpa was a Cooper, and used to be one in a family toolmaking company in Sheffield; I still have a few of them.
You are so on-trend claiming descent from a toolmaker. I’m looking forward to summer parties to find out what type of tools people I meet fathers’ made whilst Sir Keir is still a thing.
Recently rediscovered the tools my father made as an apprentice in the Navy. So you can add me to the trend.
"Reeves is, I hear, looking very closely at an array of tax increases on wealth, and the creation of new council tax bands for more expensive homes is at the top of her list", writes @tnewtondunn
Who are half of the people in the Leadership debate?
From the top left. Ange the Tory beater-upper, Penny the Diver, Mr Garage, Daisy Wotsit, and then I run out of names.
The next chap has clearly just sat in a puddle on a park bench, from the 'ick my Y-fronts are damp from below' forced rictus smile. SNP?
Then the person from Plaid Cymru.
And then the Green?
Bottom row, left to right. Farage (Reform); Daisy Cooper (Lib Dem); Rhun ap Iorwerth (Plaid Cymru); Carla Denyer (Green); Stephen Flynn (SNP)
Embarrassing to forget Cooper.
My grandpa was a Cooper, and used to be one in a family toolmaking company in Sheffield; I still have a few of them.
You are so on-trend claiming descent from a toolmaker. I’m looking forward to summer parties to find out what type of tools people I meet fathers’ made whilst Sir Keir is still a thing.
DJT can claim descent from a tool. As can his own progeny.
ANME update: We have a fifth candidate, one Jo Hart. Google the election agent, I think this is a Reform candidate.
Someone's updated the Wikipedia page now with that new candidate, agreeing with me that it's a Reform one. So, not helpful to @RochdalePioneers if he wants to court the Conservative voters. A few of them are bound to go to her.
Lets be honest here - anyone who might vote for Farage wasn't going to vote for me. Let Reform split the hardcore Tory vote. I am now pitching myself as the only candidate who lives and works in the constituency who can stop the SNP.
"Only we can stop the SNP" was the David Duguid pitch. Screw it, I've stolen it.
Tired of desulTory politicians. Think they are taking the SNPiss, want the decent Reform, vote Rochdale for LibDem. He’ll call a ratfuck a ratfuck.
I have just received some Lithic Lovers Monthly travel commissions
If all this pans out it means that in the next 10-12 months I have to go Brittany (again!), Normandy, Uzbekistan, Canada, the USA, Montenegro, Japan, Colombia, El Salvador, Thailand, Cambodia, Italy/Slovenia
I say this not to boast but to - OK I say this to boast
Surprised there's still a market for exotic travel what with the imminent arrival of Starmer's Socialist Republic of Britain.
ANME update: We have a fifth candidate, one Jo Hart. Google the election agent, I think this is a Reform candidate.
Someone's updated the Wikipedia page now with that new candidate, agreeing with me that it's a Reform one. So, not helpful to @RochdalePioneers if he wants to court the Conservative voters. A few of them are bound to go to her.
We need to crowdsource snark for him to throw at his opponents. We adopt RP as the PB candidate and see what ridiculousness we can give him to use against his opponents. Donations to a charity of his choice if he uses any of our lines in public.
We're formally launching the campaign tomorrow - 10am in Banff at the Mercat Cross. Followed by a busy weekend of door-knocking and video shooting.
There's a hustings in Cullen on Thursday 20th - have already imagining how I am going to speak to the leader of the Scottish Tories...
Exactly the right place to make a public announcement - you've obviously gone native.
John Bull @garius · 3m Tonight Penny Mordaunt, a serving Royal Navy Reserve Officer, gets to be asked live on TV what she thinks of Rishi leaving the D Day anniversary early.
"Reeves is, I hear, looking very closely at an array of tax increases on wealth, and the creation of new council tax bands for more expensive homes is at the top of her list", writes @tnewtondunn
It is preposterous that council tax is based on what a property would have been worth in 1991. There are MPs who weren’t even born then.
It's all relative though. House prices have gone up by c. 500% since 1991 but so what? I presume you're not saying CT should be 5x higher?
Perhaps to avoid the confusion of out-of-date valuations we should normalise them to a scale between 25 and 100 which would translate into the percentage of the maximum council tax that you're liable for.
I have just received some Lithic Lovers Monthly travel commissions
If all this pans out it means that in the next 10-12 months I have to go Brittany (again!), Normandy, Uzbekistan, Canada, the USA, Montenegro, Japan, Colombia, El Salvador, Thailand, Cambodia, Italy/Slovenia
I say this not to boast but to - OK I say this to boast
Surprised there's still a market for exotic travel what with the imminent arrival of Starmer's Socialist Republic of Britain.
If the readership is about to go expat, they'll still need travel advice.
Labour 1.03 Conservatives 55 Reform 55 Lib Dems 1000 Green 1000
I do wonder if this might be the best market for a trading bet.
Of course REFUK won’t win Most Seats, but this market has got almost £6m matched on it and it’s likely where people might flock during the debate later and/or tonight’s polls.
"Reeves is, I hear, looking very closely at an array of tax increases on wealth, and the creation of new council tax bands for more expensive homes is at the top of her list", writes @tnewtondunn
It is preposterous that council tax is based on what a property would have been worth in 1991. There are MPs who weren’t even born then.
It's all relative though. House prices have gone up by c. 500% since 1991 but so what? I presume you're not saying CT should be 5x higher?
Perhaps to avoid the confusion of out-of-date valuations we should normalise them to a scale between 25 and 100 which would translate into the percentage of the maximum council tax that you're liable for.
Everybody round here refers to them as bands, A to G, with no reference to the original 'values' those bands covered.
ANME update: We have a fifth candidate, one Jo Hart. Google the election agent, I think this is a Reform candidate.
Someone's updated the Wikipedia page now with that new candidate, agreeing with me that it's a Reform one. So, not helpful to @RochdalePioneers if he wants to court the Conservative voters. A few of them are bound to go to her.
Lets be honest here - anyone who might vote for Farage wasn't going to vote for me. Let Reform split the hardcore Tory vote. I am now pitching myself as the only candidate who lives and works in the constituency who can stop the SNP.
"Only we can stop the SNP" was the David Duguid pitch. Screw it, I've stolen it.
Yes and no. If people are peeling off from the Tories out of disgust and just want to find some other repository for their vote, without them being true believers of any particular political philosophy, then I can see them going to Lib Dem or Reform. This new candidate is going to cost you potential switchers. I don't think there's masses of true believers here. Reform aren't well loved round these parts. But there's many a protest vote up for grabs.
I agree. Of course Brexit is still an issue in minds, but, it’s probably second to ‘Tories out’ for many right now, to the point where many would vote for whoever of REFUK or LD represented their best hope - even if ideologically the parties are some way apart on many issues.
ANME update: We have a fifth candidate, one Jo Hart. Google the election agent, I think this is a Reform candidate.
Someone's updated the Wikipedia page now with that new candidate, agreeing with me that it's a Reform one. So, not helpful to @RochdalePioneers if he wants to court the Conservative voters. A few of them are bound to go to her.
Lets be honest here - anyone who might vote for Farage wasn't going to vote for me. Let Reform split the hardcore Tory vote. I am now pitching myself as the only candidate who lives and works in the constituency who can stop the SNP.
"Only we can stop the SNP" was the David Duguid pitch. Screw it, I've stolen it.
Yes and no. If people are peeling off from the Tories out of disgust and just want to find some other repository for their vote, without them being true believers of any particular political philosophy, then I can see them going to Lib Dem or Reform. This new candidate is going to cost you potential switchers. I don't think there's masses of true believers here. Reform aren't well loved round these parts. But there's many a protest vote up for grabs.
I believe the fear is "stop the Tories" as a counterpoint to "don't let the English take independence off us"
Duguid ran as the only candidate who could stop the SNP. And the SNP the only candidate who could stop the Tories. So with the Tory vote fragmenting and disappearing, I am going to park myself in their place. A vote for Labour or Reform is a vote for the SNP.
"Reeves is, I hear, looking very closely at an array of tax increases on wealth, and the creation of new council tax bands for more expensive homes is at the top of her list", writes @tnewtondunn
Comments
That said, I do appreciate the point. But I’m afraid whatever happens the right are going to get…. right-er after the GE. At least Farage has baggage.
https://x.com/YouGov/status/1799106863679860765
Sunak has blown up his campaign.
You feel smug! Consider how Peter the Smug Punter from Smugness feels about his prediction in Benpointers Excellent Competition.
I look at my entry hourly, on the hour. If there is one thing that ought to make you guys seriously think about voting for Rishi it is the prospect of how insufferable I will be if my extravagant prediction turns out to be the closest.
Majority of 254 since you ask.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n6OynN_0pyA
Huddersfield - big 5 only, no defending MP
Dewsbury & Batley - big 5 plus Muslim Ind, no defending MP
Spen Valley - big 5 plus Muslim Ind, plus detail of the Tory substitution, Leadbeater defending for Lab though nominal Con seat in 2019 (she chose here over D&B)
I note a poor Reform vote in prime Brexitland territory.
My ‘CON vs REFUK vote share’ bet doesn’t look as good because of that - traded out a portion of it, but I’m hoping I’ll be able to capitalise on a post D Day gate and Farage debate bounce before trading out the rest.
And if Reform are closer to 590 it could be fine either way.
All that Pilates wasn’t for nothing.
Reform had 6000 versus a 14000 Lab winner. BWP have now entered the fray.
Mcdonalds better order more milkshakes.
Worth noting that the Labour candidate is from Chatham (Kent) so I suspect the Lib Dem candidate is going to be the none Tory candidate. My 5/1 odds on the Lib Dems winning looks a decent bet.
Who are half of the people in the Leadership debate?
From the top left. Ange the Tory beater-upper, Penny the Diver, Mr Garage, Daisy Wotsit, and then I run out of names.
The next chap has clearly just sat in a puddle on a park bench, from the 'ick my Y-fronts are damp from below' forced rictus smile. SNP?
Then the person from Plaid Cymru?
And then the Green?
(May have Green and SNP reversed, but goaty beards are more likely to be Green imo.)
What we will end up with is people breaking all these rules and getting elected anyway because people are fed up with 'cancel culture', as is likely to happen with Trump in the US later this year.
@lewis_goodall
went door-knocking with Reform Party activists in Andy Burnham’s former constituency, Leigh, in Greater Manchester.
Full episode out on Sunday 🎧
https://x.com/TheNewsAgents/status/1799111657505104287
The Reform candidate's motivation is that he came through an airport and saw lots of people entering the country.
https://x.com/standardnews/status/1799111474683462084
My prediction for tonight is she'll be a bit of a hit.
Con: 19% (no change from 3-4 June)
Lab: 41% (+1)
Reform UK: 16% (-1)
Lib Dem: 11% (+1)
Green: 7% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
https://x.com/YouGov/status/1799110109987221715
If Ben were re-running the comp now, I'd be going 300+, but this time I wouldn't expect to be the only.
https://x.com/jaheale/status/1799113198555267525?s=46
@ElectionMapsUK
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 19% (=)
RFM: 16% (-1)
LDM: 11% (+1)
GRN: 7% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
Via
@YouGov
, 5-6 Jun.
Changes w/ 3-4 Jun."
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1799112386273845446
https://www.luton.gov.uk/Council_government_and_democracy/Lists/LutonDocuments/PDF/Voting and elections/election-july-2024/statement-of-person-nominated-and-notice-of-poll-luton-north.pdf
My grandpa was a Cooper, and used to be one in a family toolmaking company in Sheffield; I still have a few of them.
UKIP, RefUK, Lab, Workers, Green, Con, LD.
https://www.lichfielddc.gov.uk/downloads/file/2533/statement-of-person-nominated-tamworth
I know Electoral Calculus is the Internet's favourite random number generator, but still...
Sources say Labour manifesto has been confirmed but not unanimously - Unite unable to endorse because of party’s position on fire & rehire and oil and gas licence ban.
Great news for Labour then.
If all this pans out it means that in the next 10-12 months I have to go Brittany (again!), Normandy, Uzbekistan, Canada, the USA, Montenegro, Japan, Colombia, El Salvador, Thailand, Cambodia, Italy/Slovenia
I say this not to boast but to - OK I say this to boast
"Only we can stop the SNP" was the David Duguid pitch. Screw it, I've stolen it.
Just for good measure it's LLG 59, RefCon 35. In line with range of most pollsters in the last few months so the main change is Con-Ref churn. Highest LLG has been is around 62-63, highest RefCon gets is 37ish.
Except by the local Councillor canvassing, and she did not get a word in edgeways because I was having a complain about grandmas in wheelchairs and mobility scooters not being able to get into the local park to take their grand kids to the playground because it had a barrier on it designed to keep out Schrodinger's ASBO Motorcyclist. That lets motorcycles through but blocks lawful users !
The barrier was removed the next summer. And Council money invested in one about 10cm wider, which still blocked the same people.
Which is on my little list for removal when I get round to it.
There's a hustings in Cullen on Thursday 20th - have already imagining how I am going to speak to the leader of the Scottish Tories...
BF Exchange Most Seats
Labour 1.03
Conservatives 55
Reform 55
Lib Dems 1000
Green 1000
John Bull
@garius
·
3m
Tonight Penny Mordaunt, a serving Royal Navy Reserve Officer, gets to be asked live on TV what she thinks of Rishi leaving the D Day anniversary early.
https://www.islington.gov.uk/about-the-council/voting-and-elections/general-election-2024/election-of-a-member-of-parliament-for-islington-north
Looks like someone from Kensington and Chelsea decided to call themselves Jeremy Corbyn to stand as an independent but has been not allowed onto the ballot paper (I assume because their name isn't Jeremy Corbyn).
Of course REFUK won’t win Most Seats, but this market has got almost £6m matched on it and it’s likely where people might flock during the debate later and/or tonight’s polls.
Duguid ran as the only candidate who could stop the SNP. And the SNP the only candidate who could stop the Tories. So with the Tory vote fragmenting and disappearing, I am going to park myself in their place. A vote for Labour or Reform is a vote for the SNP.
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