In the debate tonight, Rayner is going to complain that this election was their chance to get themselves across, and explain to the voters the detail and minutia of all their plans for government, but Sunak is deliberately drowning this out and hogging the narrative, with constant stories of his own ineptitude.
Senior Labour sources are upset the voters will go into election day still unclear what Labours actual plans are. They believed the focus of the campaign would be on them and their policies, and suspect Sunak deliberately pulled his Dunkirk Moment stunt to continue to lock Labour out from its deserved special moment in the spotlight.
What's your preview on the all-important Battle of the Big Hair?
Any inside track from the Beeb's hair and makeup team?
Red Angela for the win or Blue Penny to sail away with victory?
There will be plenty of other hair on the platform… well, from six of the debaters at least, so we should be fair and divide attention equally amongst it all?
What would they do in make up with Stephen from Scotland? Too glossy and it could reflect the lights, and prove a distraction advantage when he’s speaking? So a Matt finish on the old egg shell?
The Tory answers clearly laid out by Sunak, for his party to follow - waiting lists are down, boat crossings are down, pensioners have never paid tax, Rwanda will be a fabulous deterrent, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do most of it.
To what extent is everyone else lined up now with responses, soundbites, even cutting jokes to each of those ridiculous lies. So tonight really is all about Penny. How does she answer?
If I were Penny I’d just go rogue to be honest. What’s the worst that could happen?
What? Just go up and chin Rayner? Yeah that might work.
Penny needs to focus on holding her seat, where she is behind but not doomed according to the YouGov MRP. Try and crowbar in a few references to Portsmouth!
It's not as if D Day isn't important in South East Hampshire.
Portsmouth, Fareham, that sort of place.
(Gosport as well, but who cares about Caroline Dinenage?)
I've got Gosport down as a Tory hold. They didn't do that badly in the council elections, Electoral Calculus is considering Labour as the challengers but Lib Dems run the local council. Dinenage should get high 30s and get through the middle.
Feeling slightly smug that I tipped Labour 500+ seats at 25/1 on Betfair Exchange a week ago (currently trading at 8/1 over there). Stuck twenty quid on it intending it to be a trading bet, reckon I will keep it now for the lolz.
Fwiw, I don't think Labour will reach 500 seats but I do see them coming close. 450+ feels nailed on, unless anything changes.
Thank you so much for this tip. I’m on at 15.5 so not as good as you, but similarly wanted it to be a trading bet that I’m now thinking of keeping.
Jo Gideon (Outgoing Stoke Central MP) launching a rather scathing attack on the party.
Is she defecting to RefUK?
No but she absolutely eviscerates internal party processes. It’s well worth reading her thread. I suspect there will be more such stuff after the election.
NYT - British Leader Apologizes for Leaving D-Day Commemoration Early Prime Minister Rishi Sunak conceded that he made a major public relations misstep in the heat of a general election campaign.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak of Britain apologized on Friday for leaving early from a D-Day commemoration in France, admitting to a major public relations misstep in the heat of a general election campaign.
“After the conclusion of the British event in Normandy, I returned back to the UK,” Mr. Sunak wrote on the social media platform X. “On reflection, it was a mistake not to stay in France longer — and I apologise.” . . .
ITV’s U.K. editor, Paul Brand, said the broadcaster had been trying to schedule an interview with Mr. Sunak for a long time. “Today was the slot they offered us,” he said to ITV’s “News at Ten” program. “We don’t know why.”
SSI - This is pretty much a blip on the radar screen here, of interest only to political junkies who include UK politics in their orbit.
For one thing, Rishi Sunak is virtually unknown on this side of the Atlantic (and Pacific). Even less known that Keir Starmer which ain't saying much. For another, few Americans who DO know that RS is PM and running for re-election (so to speak) are seething with outrage. However, we (in non-royal sense) do think it was (yet another) weird blunder.
In the debate tonight, Rayner is going to complain that this election was their chance to get themselves across, and explain to the voters the detail and minutia of all their plans for government, but Sunak is deliberately drowning this out and hogging the narrative, with constant stories of his own ineptitude.
Senior Labour sources are upset the voters will go into election day still unclear what Labours actual plans are. They believed the focus of the campaign would be on them and their policies, and suspect Sunak deliberately pulled his Dunkirk Moment stunt to continue to lock Labour out from its deserved special moment in the spotlight.
What's your preview on the all-important Battle of the Big Hair?
Any inside track from the Beeb's hair and makeup team?
Red Angela for the win or Blue Penny to sail away with victory?
There will be plenty of other hair on the platform… well, from six of the debaters at least, so we should be fair and divide attention equally amongst it all?
What would they do in make up with Stephen from Scotland? Too glossy and it could reflect the lights, and prove a distraction advantage when he’s speaking? So a Matt finish on the old egg shell?
The Tory answers clearly laid out by Sunak, for his party to follow - waiting lists are down, boat crossings are down, pensioners have never paid tax, Rwanda will be a fabulous deterrent, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do most of it.
To what extent is everyone else lined up now with responses, soundbites, even cutting jokes to each of those ridiculous lies. So tonight really is all about Penny. How does she answer?
If I were Penny I’d just go rogue to be honest. What’s the worst that could happen?
What? Just go up and chin Rayner? Yeah that might work.
Penny needs to focus on holding her seat, where she is behind but not doomed according to the YouGov MRP. Try and crowbar in a few references to Portsmouth!
It's not as if D Day isn't important in South East Hampshire.
Portsmouth, Fareham, that sort of place.
(Gosport as well, but who cares about Caroline Dinenage?)
I've got Gosport down as a Tory hold. They didn't do that badly in the council elections, Electoral Calculus is considering Labour as the challengers but Lib Dems run the local council. Dinenage should get high 30s and get through the middle.
It's the fact that the opposition is split that gives the Tories a chance there.
Just put a fiver on Labour to win Richmondshire and Northallerton at 3/1...
In the debate tonight, Rayner is going to complain that this election was their chance to get themselves across, and explain to the voters the detail and minutia of all their plans for government, but Sunak is deliberately drowning this out and hogging the narrative, with constant stories of his own ineptitude.
Senior Labour sources are upset the voters will go into election day still unclear what Labours actual plans are. They believed the focus of the campaign would be on them and their policies, and suspect Sunak deliberately pulled his Dunkirk Moment stunt to continue to lock Labour out from its deserved special moment in the spotlight.
What's your preview on the all-important Battle of the Big Hair?
Any inside track from the Beeb's hair and makeup team?
Red Angela for the win or Blue Penny to sail away with victory?
There will be plenty of other hair on the platform… well, from six of the debaters at least, so we should be fair and divide attention equally amongst it all?
What would they do in make up with Stephen from Scotland? Too glossy and it could reflect the lights, and prove a distraction advantage when he’s speaking? So a Matt finish on the old egg shell?
The Tory answers clearly laid out by Sunak, for his party to follow - waiting lists are down, boat crossings are down, pensioners have never paid tax, Rwanda will be a fabulous deterrent, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do most of it.
To what extent is everyone else lined up now with responses, soundbites, even cutting jokes to each of those ridiculous lies. So tonight really is all about Penny. How does she answer?
If I were Penny I’d just go rogue to be honest. What’s the worst that could happen?
Yup. "Look no-one expects Sunak to be around after July 4. We're looking ahead."
I really do think we should accept that if Jezza had not stood in 2019, the Tories would not have won.
I do not agree. 2019 was not JUST Corbyn. There was a very strong mood to get Brexit over the line. The public were sick of politicians failing to honour the vote.
And Johnson was popular in those Red Wall Leave seats on which the Cons GE19 victory was built.
🚨 NEW: Controversial priest and commentator Calvin Robinson has been expelled from the Tories for allegedly supporting Tommy Robinson and posting anti-Muslim tweets
🚨 NEW: Controversial priest and commentator Calvin Robinson has been expelled from the Tories for allegedly supporting Tommy Robinson and posting anti-Muslim tweets
🚨 NEW: Controversial priest and commentator Calvin Robinson has been expelled from the Tories for allegedly supporting Tommy Robinson and posting anti-Muslim tweets
It’s all happening today
Never occurred to me he was still in the Tories.
He's an absolute nutter. Genuinely off his rocker.
In the debate tonight, Rayner is going to complain that this election was their chance to get themselves across, and explain to the voters the detail and minutia of all their plans for government, but Sunak is deliberately drowning this out and hogging the narrative, with constant stories of his own ineptitude.
Senior Labour sources are upset the voters will go into election day still unclear what Labours actual plans are. They believed the focus of the campaign would be on them and their policies, and suspect Sunak deliberately pulled his Dunkirk Moment stunt to continue to lock Labour out from its deserved special moment in the spotlight.
What's your preview on the all-important Battle of the Big Hair?
Any inside track from the Beeb's hair and makeup team?
Red Angela for the win or Blue Penny to sail away with victory?
There will be plenty of other hair on the platform… well, from six of the debaters at least, so we should be fair and divide attention equally amongst it all?
What would they do in make up with Stephen from Scotland? Too glossy and it could reflect the lights, and prove a distraction advantage when he’s speaking? So a Matt finish on the old egg shell?
The Tory answers clearly laid out by Sunak, for his party to follow - waiting lists are down, boat crossings are down, pensioners have never paid tax, Rwanda will be a fabulous deterrent, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do most of it.
To what extent is everyone else lined up now with responses, soundbites, even cutting jokes to each of those ridiculous lies. So tonight really is all about Penny. How does she answer?
If I were Penny I’d just go rogue to be honest. What’s the worst that could happen?
What? Just go up and chin Rayner? Yeah that might work.
Penny needs to focus on holding her seat, where she is behind but not doomed according to the YouGov MRP. Try and crowbar in a few references to Portsmouth!
It's not as if D Day isn't important in South East Hampshire.
Portsmouth, Fareham, that sort of place.
(Gosport as well, but who cares about Caroline Dinenage?)
I've got Gosport down as a Tory hold. They didn't do that badly in the council elections, Electoral Calculus is considering Labour as the challengers but Lib Dems run the local council. Dinenage should get high 30s and get through the middle.
Mostly agree about Gosport. Can't remember who came up with the "50% of Cons in 2019 plays Lab in 2017" model, but she's OK on that. And a lot of the failure of Gosport Council Conservatives is piling up lots of votes on too few places.
But D Day.
You do not mess with D Day commemorations in Gosport.
🚨 NEW: Controversial priest and commentator Calvin Robinson has been expelled from the Tories for allegedly supporting Tommy Robinson and posting anti-Muslim tweets
It’s all happening today
Never occurred to me he was still in the Tories.
He's an absolute nutter. Genuinely off his rocker.
Labour have a really good ad agency who I imagine is responsible for that. Ironically called 'Lucky Generals'. There should be a few classics during this campaign. The Tories must be doing theirs in house. Their PPB certainly looked like it!
"Politics UK @PolitlcsUK · Follow 🚨 BREAKING: Tory candidate for Spen Valley Adam Gregg has quit after inappropriate photos of underage girls he posted online resurfaced
He quit minutes before the deadline for candidates to enter/withdraw
CUP 2024 general election "campaign" reminds me of the POTUS 1988 general election "campaign" of Democratic nominee Mike Dukakis.
Speaking as one who back then was cursing and throwing things at my TV set. watching Dukakis and Democratic hopes of regaining the White House going down in flames, as he & his "advisers" kept throwing more gasoline on the fires while Lee Atwater (remember him?) kept lighting match after match.
You (or at least I) can blame Atwater for the "Willy Horton" ads . . . but NOT for Mike Dukakis answering question about his reaction IF his own wife was murdered - during a freaking POTUS debate - with a learned discourse on the rights of the accused.
Sunak & CUP appear to be plumbing for similar abysmal depths.
Just to say, I don't want a humungous Labour majority at the price of empowering Farage. I'll take the vanilla landslide.
A 30 to 40 seat majority would do me.
I am sensing I might be wrong about 1992 redux. That is not necessarily my fault. I couldn't have countenanced the sub-Johnson clown show. Although there is nearly a month to go, so it's not a done deal yet
No Holly Valance in Basildon & Billericay but Dick Holden is listed as [address in the Bishop Auckland constituency] which I imagine the Basildon resident running for the Labour Party will make a big deal of.
"Politics UK @PolitlcsUK · Follow 🚨 BREAKING: Tory candidate for Spen Valley Adam Gregg has quit after inappropriate photos of underage girls he posted online resurfaced
He quit minutes before the deadline for candidates to enter/withdraw
🚨 NEW: Controversial priest and commentator Calvin Robinson has been expelled from the Tories for allegedly supporting Tommy Robinson and posting anti-Muslim tweets
It’s all happening today
Never occurred to me he was still in the Tories.
He's an absolute nutter. Genuinely off his rocker.
I’m surprised he hasn’t been defrocked by now.
The Church of England never frocked him in the first place. His deaconing was with the (fringe) Free Church of England and his pristine by the (I had to look them up) Nordic Catholic Church.
Just to say, I don't want a humungous Labour majority at the price of empowering Farage. I'll take the vanilla landslide.
A 30 to 40 seat majority would do me.
I am sensing I might be wrong about 1992 redux. That is not necessarily my fault. I couldn't have countenanced the sub-Johnson clown show. Although there is nearly a month to go, so it's not a done deal yet
Truss would have had more chance of turning things around.
🚨 NEW: Controversial priest and commentator Calvin Robinson has been expelled from the Tories for allegedly supporting Tommy Robinson and posting anti-Muslim tweets
It’s all happening today
Didn’t know he was a member. Might he be standing for Reform somewhere?
"Politics UK @PolitlcsUK · Follow 🚨 BREAKING: Tory candidate for Spen Valley Adam Gregg has quit after inappropriate photos of underage girls he posted online resurfaced
He quit minutes before the deadline for candidates to enter/withdraw
Just to say, I don't want a humungous Labour majority at the price of empowering Farage. I'll take the vanilla landslide.
I agree, but I don't think that's going to happen. Reform are not actually going to poll 18%, or even 15%, and they're not going to win more than one or two seats. Look at that Torquay council result, in a Brexit voting and very elderly area. 8.5%, at the height of the Farage bubble. Tories 42%.
Just to say, I don't want a humungous Labour majority at the price of empowering Farage. I'll take the vanilla landslide.
A 30 to 40 seat majority would do me.
I am sensing I might be wrong about 1992 redux. That is not necessarily my fault. I couldn't have countenanced the sub-Johnson clown show. Although there is nearly a month to go, so it's not a done deal yet
Truss would have had more chance of turning things around.
They had 11000 odd votes last time. Can’t see it not being a massive Labour win.
Reform UK will be looking closely at Rotherham if they're the main "to the right-of-centre" party contesting the seat. Maybe we'll see a few Farage visits to the constituency.
🚨 NEW: Controversial priest and commentator Calvin Robinson has been expelled from the Tories for allegedly supporting Tommy Robinson and posting anti-Muslim tweets
It’s all happening today
Never occurred to me he was still in the Tories.
He's an absolute nutter. Genuinely off his rocker.
I’m surprised he hasn’t been defrocked by now.
The Church of England never frocked him in the first place. His deaconing was with the (fringe) Free Church of England and his pristine by the (I had to look them up) Nordic Catholic Church.
Ah so he’s pretending a religious authority he doesn’t possess. Figures as he comes across as about as Christian as the Ayatollah.
Yes that was wrong as well. The Lib Dems were 900 votes behind but in 2nd place in 2023 and no Lab candidate. I suspect the comparison was with a previous year.
Feeling slightly smug that I tipped Labour 500+ seats at 25/1 on Betfair Exchange a week ago (currently trading at 8/1 over there). Stuck twenty quid on it intending it to be a trading bet, reckon I will keep it now for the lolz.
Fwiw, I don't think Labour will reach 500 seats but I do see them coming close. 450+ feels nailed on, unless anything changes.
You feel smug! Consider how Peter the Smug Punter from Smugness feels about his prediction in Benpointers Excellent Competition.
I look at my entry hourly, on the hour. If there is one thing that ought to make you guys seriously think about voting for Rishi it is the prospect of how insufferable I will be if my extravagant prediction turns out to be the closest.
🚨 NEW: Controversial priest and commentator Calvin Robinson has been expelled from the Tories for allegedly supporting Tommy Robinson and posting anti-Muslim tweets
It’s all happening today
Never occurred to me he was still in the Tories.
He's an absolute nutter. Genuinely off his rocker.
I’m surprised he hasn’t been defrocked by now.
The Church of England never frocked him in the first place. His deaconing was with the (fringe) Free Church of England and his pristine by the (I had to look them up) Nordic Catholic Church.
Ah so he’s pretending a religious authority he doesn’t possess. Figures as he comes across as about as Christian as the Ayatollah.
They had 11000 odd votes last time. Can’t see it not being a massive Labour win.
Reform UK will be looking closely at Rotherham if they're the main "to the right-of-centre" party contesting the seat. Maybe we'll see a few Farage visits to the constituency.
South Yorks is fertile ground for RUK. If they do break through and win seats some of them will be there.
Feeling slightly smug that I tipped Labour 500+ seats at 25/1 on Betfair Exchange a week ago (currently trading at 8/1 over there). Stuck twenty quid on it intending it to be a trading bet, reckon I will keep it now for the lolz.
Fwiw, I don't think Labour will reach 500 seats but I do see them coming close. 450+ feels nailed on, unless anything changes.
You feel smug! Consider how Peter the Smug Punter from Smugness feels about his prediction in Benpointers Excellent Competition.
I look at my entry hourly, on the hour. If there is one thing that ought to make you guys seriously think about voting for Rishi it is the prospect of how insufferable I will be if my extravagant prediction turns out to be the closest.
Ah. Spen Valley. A Tory chance if things were going sort of OK for them. Might be why my local list isn't up yet.
And they're in - the withdrawal shown and a last minute Con nominee parachuted in from an address in Altrincham & Sale West
Full slates of the 5 parties, no WPGB, but a couple of Muslim named Inds in Spen & in Dewsbury
Colne Valley - big 5 plus YP, McCartney defending for Con Huddersfield - big 5 only, no defending MP Dewsbury & Batley - big 5 plus Muslim Ind, no defending MP Spen Valley - big 5 plus Muslim Ind, plus detail of the Tory substitution, Leadbeater defending for Lab though nominal Con seat in 2019 (she chose here over D&B)
Yes that was wrong as well. The Lib Dems were 900 votes behind but in 2nd place in 2023 and no Lab candidate. I suspect the comparison was with a previous year.
Thanks.
I note a poor Reform vote in prime Brexitland territory.
REFUK likely to be between 520 and 590 as per TomorrowsMPs
My ‘CON vs REFUK vote share’ bet doesn’t look as good because of that - traded out a portion of it, but I’m hoping I’ll be able to capitalise on a post D Day gate and Farage debate bounce before trading out the rest.
And if Reform are closer to 590 it could be fine either way.
Look, this is supposed to be top secret but I just can’t sit by and see Rishi eviscerated unfairly. Yesterday was final dress rehearsal ahead of the Taylor Swift concert in Edinburgh tonight where he’s performing a duet medley with her of “So Long London”, “Cruel Summer” and “Look what you made me do”.
Worth noting that the Labour candidate is from Chatham (Kent) so I suspect the Lib Dem candidate is going to be the none Tory candidate. My 5/1 odds on the Lib Dems winning looks a decent bet.
ANME update: We have a fifth candidate, one Jo Hart. Google the election agent, I think this is a Reform candidate.
Someone's updated the Wikipedia page now with that new candidate, agreeing with me that it's a Reform one. So, not helpful to @RochdalePioneers if he wants to court the Conservative voters. A few of them are bound to go to her.
No RefUK candidate in Cheltenham. That makes at least 2 short of a full slate.
Won't save Alex Chalk, I'm afraid.
That is a real shame. He’s a very bright, articulate and considerate chap who is always on top of his brief. Hopefully at some point he will get another go if he’s not totally disillusioned and doesn’t decide to just follow the money in law.
"Politics UK @PolitlcsUK · Follow 🚨 BREAKING: Tory candidate for Spen Valley Adam Gregg has quit after inappropriate photos of underage girls he posted online resurfaced
He quit minutes before the deadline for candidates to enter/withdraw
What on Earth? Hope this has been reported to the police?
'Inappropriate' could just mean anything. Enough to trigger a panic.
What we will end up with is people breaking all these rules and getting elected anyway because people are fed up with 'cancel culture', as is likely to happen with Trump in the US later this year.
ANME update: We have a fifth candidate, one Jo Hart. Google the election agent, I think this is a Reform candidate.
Someone's updated the Wikipedia page now with that new candidate, agreeing with me that it's a Reform one. So, not helpful to @RochdalePioneers if he wants to court the Conservative voters. A few of them are bound to go to her.
We need to crowdsource snark for him to throw at his opponents. We adopt RP as the PB candidate and see what ridiculousness we can give him to use against his opponents. Donations to a charity of his choice if he uses any of our lines in public.
"Reeves is, I hear, looking very closely at an array of tax increases on wealth, and the creation of new council tax bands for more expensive homes is at the top of her list", writes @tnewtondunn
"Reeves is, I hear, looking very closely at an array of tax increases on wealth, and the creation of new council tax bands for more expensive homes is at the top of her list", writes @tnewtondunn
Tell us something we don't know - the biggest question is based on 1989 values or a revaluation exercise (which actually wouldn't be that difficult to do nowadays given prices are available).
Just to say, I don't want a humungous Labour majority at the price of empowering Farage. I'll take the vanilla landslide.
I agree, but I don't think that's going to happen. Reform are not actually going to poll 18%, or even 15%, and they're not going to win more than one or two seats. Look at that Torquay council result, in a Brexit voting and very elderly area. 8.5%, at the height of the Farage bubble. Tories 42%.
The Deplorable demographic is approx 15% of the population, I'd say. Litmus question would be do you like Donald Trump? That fingers them and it's of the order 15%. Maybe a touch higher. If you can get most of them, that's a solid base from which to stretch towards break through and seats. I reckon with Farage in play and the Cons in meltdown we might see that. But I hope we don't.
Feeling slightly smug that I tipped Labour 500+ seats at 25/1 on Betfair Exchange a week ago (currently trading at 8/1 over there). Stuck twenty quid on it intending it to be a trading bet, reckon I will keep it now for the lolz.
Fwiw, I don't think Labour will reach 500 seats but I do see them coming close. 450+ feels nailed on, unless anything changes.
You feel smug! Consider how Peter the Smug Punter from Smugness feels about his prediction in Benpointers Excellent Competition.
I look at my entry hourly, on the hour. If there is one thing that ought to make you guys seriously think about voting for Rishi it is the prospect of how insufferable I will be if my extravagant prediction turns out to be the closest.
Majority of 245 since you ask.
I think that majority may be on the low side....
It's all a bit of fun so I am loathe to be serious about it, but I have to say I was surprised to find I was so much higher than everyone else. All I did was key some recent poll averages into Electoral Calculus and that's what it gave me. Why did others not do something similar? More seriously, what does that tell you about the betting odds? I think the value is by and large still with Labour. Punters are just not getting their heads around what the polls are telling us because they just refuse to believe the outcome will be that extraordinary. It may not be. But it may be. Nor is there any reason to suppose it will not be even more extraordinary.
If Ben were re-running the comp now, I'd be going 300+, but this time I wouldn't expect to be the only.
"Politics UK @PolitlcsUK · Follow 🚨 BREAKING: Tory candidate for Spen Valley Adam Gregg has quit after inappropriate photos of underage girls he posted online resurfaced
He quit minutes before the deadline for candidates to enter/withdraw
What on Earth? Hope this has been reported to the police?
'Inappropriate' could just mean anything. Enough to trigger a panic.
What we will end up with is people breaking all these rules and getting elected anyway because people are fed up with 'cancel culture', as is likely to happen with Trump in the US later this year.
Is not wanting someone who is guilty of multiple frauds and was found by a jury to have sexually assaulted someone considered “cancel culture”?
Comments
https://imgur.com/a/4M5ya79
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak conceded that he made a major public relations misstep in the heat of a general election campaign.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak of Britain apologized on Friday for leaving early from a D-Day commemoration in France, admitting to a major public relations misstep in the heat of a general election campaign.
“After the conclusion of the British event in Normandy, I returned back to the UK,” Mr. Sunak wrote on the social media platform X. “On reflection, it was a mistake not to stay in France longer — and I apologise.” . . .
ITV’s U.K. editor, Paul Brand, said the broadcaster had been trying to schedule an interview with Mr. Sunak for a long time. “Today was the slot they offered us,” he said to ITV’s “News at Ten” program. “We don’t know why.”
SSI - This is pretty much a blip on the radar screen here, of interest only to political junkies who include UK politics in their orbit.
For one thing, Rishi Sunak is virtually unknown on this side of the Atlantic (and Pacific). Even less known that Keir Starmer which ain't saying much. For another, few Americans who DO know that RS is PM and running for re-election (so to speak) are seething with outrage. However, we (in non-royal sense) do think it was (yet another) weird blunder.
Full slates of the 5 parties, no WPGB, but a couple of Muslim named Inds in Spen & in Dewsbury
But it's politics.
Just put a fiver on Labour to win Richmondshire and Northallerton at 3/1...
It’s all happening today
@tomorrowsmps
🔵 Conservative HQ tell me they have managed to nominate candidates in all but one seat, and that seat is "unwinnable".
Robert Hutton
@RobDotHutton
Right now, that might mean Beaconsfield.
But D Day.
You do not mess with D Day commemorations in Gosport.
@PolitlcsUK
·
Follow
🚨 BREAKING: Tory candidate for Spen Valley Adam Gregg has quit after inappropriate photos of underage girls he posted online resurfaced
He quit minutes before the deadline for candidates to enter/withdraw
[@DailyMirror]"
https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1799104035418464461
https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1798968636864119149?t=HAZmmfGEGpNT-kEqHDajFQ&s=19
that just means we get to rubbish Starmer for the next five years.
we need some variety
Speaking as one who back then was cursing and throwing things at my TV set. watching Dukakis and Democratic hopes of regaining the White House going down in flames, as he & his "advisers" kept throwing more gasoline on the fires while Lee Atwater (remember him?) kept lighting match after match.
You (or at least I) can blame Atwater for the "Willy Horton" ads . . . but NOT for Mike Dukakis answering question about his reaction IF his own wife was murdered - during a freaking POTUS debate - with a learned discourse on the rights of the accused.
Sunak & CUP appear to be plumbing for similar abysmal depths.
I am sensing I might be wrong about 1992 redux. That is not necessarily my fault. I couldn't have countenanced the sub-Johnson clown show. Although there is nearly a month to go, so it's not a done deal yet
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ilford_North_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
https://www.luton.gov.uk/Council_government_and_democracy/Lists/LutonDocuments/PDF/Voting and elections/election-july-2024/statement-of-person-nominated-and-notice-of-poll-luton-north.pdf
https://www.stalbans.gov.uk/sites/default/files/attachments/Statement of persons nominated and notice of poll_Harpenden and Berkhamsted 4 July 2024.pdf
https://www.stalbans.gov.uk/sites/default/files/attachments/Statement of persons nominated and notice of poll_St Albans 4 July 2024.pdf
https://www.midsussex.gov.uk/media/uxintccw/east-grinstead-and-uckfield-sopn-nop.pdf
https://www.midsussex.gov.uk/media/ji1bj0rd/mid-sussex-sopn-nop.pdf
https://www.highpeak.gov.uk/media/9290/Statement-of-Persons-Nominated-Notice-of-Poll-and-Situation-of-Polling-Stations/pdf/Statement_of_Persons_Nominated_Notice_of_Poll_and_Situation_of_Polling_Stations.pdf?m=1717774865887
https://n-somerset.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2024-06/7 Jun - statement of persons nominated, notice of poll and location of polling stations - Weston-super-Mare constituency.pdf
https://rdcpublic.blob.core.windows.net/website-uploads/2024/06/Statement-of-Persons-Nominated-Notice-of-Poll-and-Situation-of-Polling-Stations-UKPGE-2024.pdf
https://www.stratford.gov.uk/doc/212829/name/Statement of Persons Nominated Notice of Poll and Situation of Polling Stations.pdf/
https://n-somerset.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2024-06/7 Jun - statement of persons nominated, notice of poll and location of polling stations - North Somerset constituency.pdf
https://www.westlancs.gov.uk/media/547768/statement-of-persons-nominated-general-election-2024-west-lancashire.pdf
That said, I do appreciate the point. But I’m afraid whatever happens the right are going to get…. right-er after the GE. At least Farage has baggage.
https://x.com/YouGov/status/1799106863679860765
Sunak has blown up his campaign.
We have a fifth candidate, one Jo Hart. Google the election agent, I think this is a Reform candidate.
You feel smug! Consider how Peter the Smug Punter from Smugness feels about his prediction in Benpointers Excellent Competition.
I look at my entry hourly, on the hour. If there is one thing that ought to make you guys seriously think about voting for Rishi it is the prospect of how insufferable I will be if my extravagant prediction turns out to be the closest.
Majority of 254 since you ask.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n6OynN_0pyA
Huddersfield - big 5 only, no defending MP
Dewsbury & Batley - big 5 plus Muslim Ind, no defending MP
Spen Valley - big 5 plus Muslim Ind, plus detail of the Tory substitution, Leadbeater defending for Lab though nominal Con seat in 2019 (she chose here over D&B)
I note a poor Reform vote in prime Brexitland territory.
My ‘CON vs REFUK vote share’ bet doesn’t look as good because of that - traded out a portion of it, but I’m hoping I’ll be able to capitalise on a post D Day gate and Farage debate bounce before trading out the rest.
And if Reform are closer to 590 it could be fine either way.
All that Pilates wasn’t for nothing.
Reform had 6000 versus a 14000 Lab winner. BWP have now entered the fray.
Mcdonalds better order more milkshakes.
Worth noting that the Labour candidate is from Chatham (Kent) so I suspect the Lib Dem candidate is going to be the none Tory candidate. My 5/1 odds on the Lib Dems winning looks a decent bet.
Who are half of the people in the Leadership debate?
From the top left. Ange the Tory beater-upper, Penny the Diver, Mr Garage, Daisy Wotsit, and then I run out of names.
The next chap has clearly just sat in a puddle on a park bench, from the 'ick my Y-fronts are damp from below' forced rictus smile. SNP?
Then the person from Plaid Cymru?
And then the Green?
(May have Green and SNP reversed, but goaty beards are more likely to be Green imo.)
What we will end up with is people breaking all these rules and getting elected anyway because people are fed up with 'cancel culture', as is likely to happen with Trump in the US later this year.
@lewis_goodall
went door-knocking with Reform Party activists in Andy Burnham’s former constituency, Leigh, in Greater Manchester.
Full episode out on Sunday 🎧
https://x.com/TheNewsAgents/status/1799111657505104287
The Reform candidate's motivation is that he came through an airport and saw lots of people entering the country.
https://x.com/standardnews/status/1799111474683462084
My prediction for tonight is she'll be a bit of a hit.
Con: 19% (no change from 3-4 June)
Lab: 41% (+1)
Reform UK: 16% (-1)
Lib Dem: 11% (+1)
Green: 7% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
https://x.com/YouGov/status/1799110109987221715
If Ben were re-running the comp now, I'd be going 300+, but this time I wouldn't expect to be the only.
https://x.com/jaheale/status/1799113198555267525?s=46
@ElectionMapsUK
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 19% (=)
RFM: 16% (-1)
LDM: 11% (+1)
GRN: 7% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
Via
@YouGov
, 5-6 Jun.
Changes w/ 3-4 Jun."
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1799112386273845446
https://www.luton.gov.uk/Council_government_and_democracy/Lists/LutonDocuments/PDF/Voting and elections/election-july-2024/statement-of-person-nominated-and-notice-of-poll-luton-north.pdf
My grandpa was a Cooper, and used to be one in a family toolmaking company in Sheffield; I still have a few of them.
UKIP, RefUK, Lab, Workers, Green, Con, LD.
https://www.lichfielddc.gov.uk/downloads/file/2533/statement-of-person-nominated-tamworth