Not enough people are aware of the extent of damage of Ukraine’s electricity production due to the relentless Russian strikes...
Before the full-scale invasion Ukraine had about 55 gigawatts (GW) of electricity production. The FT recently wrote that about 20 GW are left. Just last Saturday alone, RU destroyed 1.2 GW of production.
Several 🇺🇦 experts believe this number is more 6-10 GW, which means Ukraine lacks the means to cover electricity demands of private and industrial consumers. For peak summer but especially this winter, we will face hours long outages. Some quotes from the FT article that highlight the severity of the situation:
“Asked what the damage would mean for the months ahead, one of the officials put it bluntly: “We should prepare for life in the cold and the dark.” “This is our new normal,” the second official said, gesturing outside a window to the darkness that had descended on Kyiv during a recent emergency power shutdown…
If no measures are taken, according to our modelling, then probably the population will have only two to four hours of electricity [per day] in January,” said Borys Dodonov, head of energy and climate studies at the Kyiv School of Economics.” https://x.com/mattia_n/status/1799023310816076197
Trust me. I’ve noticed
This is what the portable generators sound like all over Odessa. Add in diesel fumes for extra annoyance
It is maddening. And this is across Ukraine now I think. Even in Lviv
I can't quite get over how perfectly the Conservatives have managed a form of negative triangulation: no matter who you are, they've got a vote-losing policy laser-targeted at pissing you off.
One nation liberals are mad about Rwanda, mad about the rhetoric on immigration, and mad about the clashes with international law. Immigration restrictionists are furious that net migration has reached record highs fuelled by low skilled workers flooding.
Hardcore Remainers are upset about about Brexit. Hardcore Brexiteers are upset about Brexit, because the party signed a deal that they think gives the EU too much ability to meddle in our affairs.
Small state conservatives are mad that taxes have been driven to post-war highs. Advocates for state spending are mad that public services are falling apart.
Young people are furious because Rishi Sunak is pitching them in for national service and the housing market is a dysfunctional mess. Old people are furious because he flaked on the D-Day commemorations (in addition to everything else!)
Cultural conservatives are furious that they've dragged their heels on combating Islamism, pushing back on critical race theory or removing trans ideology from schools, instead preferring to talk a great deal and do nothing. Cultural liberals are furious that they've described pro-Palestine protests as "hate marches" or ramped up rhetoric about these at all.
They've managed to brand themselves as the low tax, culture wars, hostile to immigration party while actually behaving like a party to the Left of New Labour.
And all of this, all of it, might just have been forgiveable if they'd shown some basic competence in doing so, if living standards had improved or state services had at least stayed stable. But instead they've floundered, flailed, and wasted 14 years in office. They've let problems they inherited get worse, watched new ones develop, and the distinct sense is that far too many of them did nothing with their time in office but throw Downing Street parties, whether or not the rest of the nation was in lockdown.
Whatever's left of the party after the vote – if there's a party left after the vote! – needs to work out what it's actually for. "Not being Labour" won't cut it anymore.
In his resignation letter, seen by The Telegraph, Mr Acheson, a former prison governor, said: “It was an act of either colossal stupidity or cynical calculation. “Either way, it revealed to me that while I still embrace a conservative philosophy, I am no longer willing to have it outsourced to a bunch of mendacious, incompetent and disreputable clowns. “Country before party. Always.”
In the debate tonight, Rayner is going to complain that this election was their chance to get themselves across, and explain to the voters the detail and minutia of all their plans for government, but Sunak is deliberately drowning this out and hogging the narrative, with constant stories of his own ineptitude.
Senior Labour sources are upset the voters will go into election day still unclear what Labours actual plans are. They believed the focus of the campaign would be on them and their policies, and suspect Sunak deliberately pulled his Dunkirk Moment stunt to continue to lock Labour out from its deserved special moment in the spotlight.
Popstar Holly Valance holds crunch last minute talks with Reform UK to stand against Tory chairman Richard Holden in election. She must decide by 4pm today.
This could start a political arms race to recruit Australian soap stars.
Surely Reform are choosing on the basis of their, er, robust political views?
In which case I imagine they'll be drumming up Eric Clapton and Morrissey next.
Aussie soaps much more suitable.
Paul Robinson clearly a blue wall Tory. Stand him somewhere in Surrey.
Harold Bishop an old school Tory Wet. Probably also vulnerable to the Lib Dems.
Mrs Mangle standing as Tory for Maidenhead.
Helen Robinson gets a cross bench peerage in the Lords.
Scott standing for Labour in a London seat.
Charlene Labour up in Manchester.
Henry standing for the Lib Dems somewhere in the West Country.
Over in Home and Away Alf Stewart standing for Reform in Thanet.
Like a lot of other people, I spent a inordinate amount of time watching this show. Looking back it's difficult to see what was so engrossing about the likes of Harold Bishop, Mrs Mangel, etc. 😊
Ha ha, me too ––– and fair point!
In any case, I think it's shocking that @TimS has failed to find a winnable seat for the iconic Madge Bishop (nee Ramsay)
Seems there’s some last minute shenanigans in Hemel Hempstead as the recently selected Tory candidate resigns/is dumped at the last minute. When the story is written of this election it might not fit in one volume.
Well I think all sorts of spellings get tried out these days. I don’t care how his parents decided to spell his name, I’m intrigued as to why he’s suddenly been dropped an hour before the deadline though.
Good greif, did you see the 2:21 story about the resignation? OK, so it's only Mr Gove's adviser, but the tone makes Mr Duguid look like an example from the Sermon on the Mount.
'Ian Acheson, who has advised the Communities Secretary on extremism, said the Prime Minister’s decision was a “colossal act of disrespect” to war veterans on what could be the last commemoration that they could attend.
In his resignation letter, seen by The Telegraph, Mr Acheson, a former prison governor, said: “It was an act of either colossal stupidity or cynical calculation.
“Either way, it revealed to me that while I still embrace a conservative philosophy, I am no longer willing to have it outsourced to a bunch of mendacious, incompetent and disreputable clowns. Country before party. Always.”'
Even Andrew Lloyd Weber is piling in.
Andrew Lloyd Webber has accused Rishi Sunak of an “astonishing and terrible lack of political judgment” after leaving D-Day commemorations early.
Lord Lloyd Webber, a lifelong Conservative supporter, composed a new piece of music, Lovingly Remembered, to mark the 80th anniversary of the landings.
I'm starting to think that Sunak may be an even worse PM than Truss. At least she didn't embarrass herself when the Queen died and she left promptly when she knew it was over.
Also I see Rishi has been in Stroud today. WTF? It only had a majority of about 2k in 2019 and the Yougov MRP predicts 51% Lab, 25% Con. Even with a bit of swingback, it's not a seat the Cons can realistically hold. Is it just machismo to pretend that the Cons can hold on to some sort of majority?
They’ve done this because a small group of Woke trustafarian idiots have campaigned for it bEcAuSe IsRaeL
Never give in to these people. You give an inch and before you know it everything is cancelled / problematic.
The activists are basically objecting to BF being an investment company.
...“The assertion that we have significant amounts of money in the occupied Palestinian territories is offensively misleading. Baillie Gifford is a large investor in several multinational technology companies, including Amazon, Nvidia and Meta. Demanding divestment from these global companies, used by millions of people around the world, is unreasonable and serves no purpose. Much as it would be unreasonable to demand authors boycott Instagram or stop selling books on Amazon.”
Baillie Gifford was also not a “significant fossil fuel investor”, Thomas said. “Only 2% of our clients’ money is invested in companies with some business related to fossil fuels. We invest far more in companies helping drive the transition to clean energy.”..
This is my point. They are rarely if ever good faith actors, they despise the capitalist system, it must be torn down. I bet we all indirectly have 2% of our pension etc invested in these areas.
One of the XR founder was honest about it at the beginning, that climate change cause was just a vehicle to help them achieve this by tapping into wider public concerns about the environment.
This is what they are doing here, leveraging fossil fuels and Israel.
XR are a bunch of risibles. Anyone serious about action on climate change should share that opinion.
At some point, assuming that the science is broadly sound, then combining this with the actual current facts and only possible trajectory of CO2 emissions a particular thing has to change, and it will embarrass a lot of people. It is this:
There is no route whatsoever out of very substantial global warming as a result of actions past, present and immediate future. None of this is stoppable.
If the science is correct, the immediate issue is how to plan for and deal with the realities of this fact.
This has been true for some years, but people cling to the myth that 'we have five (insert similar number) years to save the world by abolishing oil and gas'.
The most important thing now is still to reduce the amount of global warming that we have to adjust to by reducing fossil fuel use, and other sources of GHGs, as quickly as possible.
There's a big difference between 2C of warming and 4C.
But the reality is we're already doing that.
We've already set our course to do our bit. We've stopped burning coal, we've eliminated a significant chunk of our emissions and we're on course for more of the same.
We should tackle our emissions. We are doing. Nothing needs to change on that, we just need to "keep calm and carry on".
while India and China pile the coal into the boilers for full speed ahead.
I'm starting to think that Sunak may be an even worse PM than Truss. At least she didn't embarrass herself when the Queen died and she left promptly when she knew it was over.
Also I see Rishi has been in Stroud today. WTF? It only had a majority of about 2k in 2019 and the Yougov MRP predicts 51% Lab, 25% Con. Even with a bit of swingback, it's not a seat the Cons can realistically hold. Is it just machismo to pretend that the Cons can hold on to some sort of majority?
I think, given the events of recent days, imbuing any kind of logic or reasoning to Rishi and his campaign is futile…
With all the speculation about whether the Tories will field a full slate of candidates (of course they will) a fun fact. The last time the Tories didn't stand a candidate in a GE (except for Speaker/Northern Ireland) was in 1970 - Greenock. They stood down in favour of a Liberal or Independent Conservative a handful of times in the 1950s (counting National Liberals as Conservatives for this purpose).
Labour of course stood aside for Martin Bell in Tatton in 1997 but prior to that I think the previous time they failed to put a full slate up was in 1945.
There are also the post-nomination technicalities: cases where candidates are publicly disavowed, or even officially suspended, but the nomination on paper still stands, like Labour in Banff and Buchan in 2015.
🔵 HEMEL HEMPSTEAD: local members told CCHQ had had "anonymous complaint against his prior conduct which requires investigating by the party. Having refuted the allegations and refused to resign his candidacy Jaymey has had his membership of the Party immediately suspended ..."
In the debate tonight, Rayner is going to complain that this election was their chance to get themselves across, and explain to the voters the detail and minutia of all their plans for government, but Sunak is deliberately drowning this out and hogging the narrative, with constant stories of his own ineptitude.
Senior Labour sources are upset the voters will go into election day still unclear what Labours actual plans are. They believed the focus of the campaign would be on them and their policies, and suspect Sunak deliberately pulled his Dunkirk Moment stunt to continue to lock Labour out from its deserved special moment in the spotlight.
What's your preview on the all-important Battle of the Big Hair?
Any inside track from the Beeb's hair and makeup team?
Red Angela for the win or Blue Penny to sail away with victory?
Why is the Returning Officer always called the Acting Returning Officer, both on my poll card and when sharing the limelight at 4am with Count Binface. What added value does the word Acting bring to the party?
The Returning Officer is officially some senior Council bod who has the statutory responsibilities. The Acting Returning Officer is the person who understands the detail.
"Good-morning, good-morning!" said Rishi Sunak When we met him last week on our way to the line. Now the MPs he smiled at are most of 'em sacked, And we're cursing his staff for incompetent swine. “He's a cheery old card,” grunted Harry to Krishnan As they slogged up to canvass and leaflet in Lothian
I don't fancy Penny Mourdant job this evening. It bad enough having 6 others gang up on you in a debate over your record in government, now what does she do about Sunak decision?
In the debate tonight, Rayner is going to complain that this election was their chance to get themselves across, and explain to the voters the detail and minutia of all their plans for government, but Sunak is deliberately drowning this out and hogging the narrative, with constant stories of his own ineptitude.
Senior Labour sources are upset the voters will go into election day still unclear what Labours actual plans are. They believed the focus of the campaign would be on them and their policies, and suspect Sunak deliberately pulled his Dunkirk Moment stunt to continue to lock Labour out from its deserved special moment in the spotlight.
What's your preview on the all-important Battle of the Big Hair?
Any inside track from the Beeb's hair and makeup team?
Red Angela for the win or Blue Penny to sail away with victory?
So shallow and uninformed. It's obviously all about shoulder pads and shoes.
And if the Tory doldrums weren’t enough to put a broad grin on Sir Keir Starmer’s face, then this surely must... his net approval surged by 13 points to +14 this week – his highest ever.
Is it a post-debate bounce? Mr Starmer also strikes gold with another huge lead, this time in our ‘preferred Prime Minister’ tracker where he gains another two points to create a 22-point gap.
Con Hemel Hempstead candidate has quit (personal reasons). 35 minutes to find another candidate…
Majority of 14,000 and looks like they won’t be able to field a candidate.
Er... what?
Pretty much my reaction. Crick sounding like they may have someone else lined up but it’ll be tight. Wonder what those reasons were…
Is someone digging up dirt on Tory candidates and telling them right before the deadline?
It would seem so.
It'll be a rival who wants the gig - last minute knifing leaving them the only option
Possibly or someone he’s annoyed at some point, apparently the complaint was received with photos according to Crick. Messy. Not that the Tories had much chance of holding on.
And if the Tory doldrums weren’t enough to put a broad grin on Sir Keir Starmer’s face, then this surely must... his net approval surged by 13 points to +14 this week – his highest ever.
Is it a post-debate bounce? Mr Starmer also strikes gold with another huge lead, this time in our ‘preferred Prime Minister’ tracker where he gains another two points to create a 22-point gap.
"What have Brexit and Voldemort got in common ? People find them awful but their name must never be spoken" Die Zeit↙️
"Brexit has become taboo, which, given the problems the country faces, is grotesque" Handelsblatt (🇩🇪 FT) ↘️
Brave for a country which has just downgraded all its economic forecasts.
You do realise that those pesky furriners with their stinky ways have things called “newspapers” that have views independent of their governments don’t you? Or do you think we are too important for others to make comment on us?
What is the most recent example in the Western World of a party having as high a majority as this, in an actual democracy?
I'd guess it's pretty unlikely in proportional representation systems or the like. FPTP, on the other hand, tends to give quasi-stable two-party equilibria that, when they do flip, lead to dramatic changes of fortune.
Is there a chance that Reform defections could happen at the deadline and we don’t find out until after 4pm?
Yes, because as I said yesterday there's no way of knowing what nominations have been made until they're announced by the council, unless candidates decide to publicise it themselves, and there's no obligation for them to do that.
I'm starting to think that Sunak may be an even worse PM than Truss. At least she didn't embarrass herself when the Queen died and she left promptly when she knew it was over.
Also I see Rishi has been in Stroud today. WTF? It only had a majority of about 2k in 2019 and the Yougov MRP predicts 51% Lab, 25% Con. Even with a bit of swingback, it's not a seat the Cons can realistically hold. Is it just machismo to pretend that the Cons can hold on to some sort of majority?
The Green Party candidate may split the vote, and let the Tory come through the middle.
Con Hemel Hempstead candidate has quit (personal reasons). 35 minutes to find another candidate…
Majority of 14,000 and looks like they won’t be able to field a candidate.
Er... what?
Pretty much my reaction. Crick sounding like they may have someone else lined up but it’ll be tight. Wonder what those reasons were…
Is someone digging up dirt on Tory candidates and telling them right before the deadline?
It would seem so.
It'll be a rival who wants the gig - last minute knifing leaving them the only option
Would be funny if Sunak was knifed, Suella became leader and the Tories somehow won the election. Everyone would be banging their heads on the table wishing they had just shut up about D-day.
Popstar Holly Valance holds crunch last minute talks with Reform UK to stand against Tory chairman Richard Holden in election. She must decide by 4pm today.
This could start a political arms race to recruit Australian soap stars.
Surely Reform are choosing on the basis of their, er, robust political views?
In which case I imagine they'll be drumming up Eric Clapton and Morrissey next.
Her political views have a definite audience. Stop making kids depressed with climate catastrophism, stop trans stuff in schools, keep sexuality private. Not too sure about her comments on Andrew Tate though.
This stuff will become more and more mainstream and it will drive people on the left completely mad. But it is an inevitable reaction to the cultural dominance of the left, eventually the pendulum swings the other way.
"What have Brexit and Voldemort got in common ? People find them awful but their name must never be spoken" Die Zeit↙️
"Brexit has become taboo, which, given the problems the country faces, is grotesque" Handelsblatt (🇩🇪 FT) ↘️
Brave for a country which has just downgraded all its economic forecasts.
You do realise that those pesky furriners with their stinky ways have things called “newspapers” that have views independent of their governments don’t you? Or do you think we are too important for others to make comment on us?
Given I was Geschatsfueher in Germany for five years, speak fluent German, read the German press every day and am currently working in Germany. I suspect I have a better feel for the place than you. But dont let that stop you.
Sunak asking young people to do National Service or to volunteer one weekend a month and then couldn’t be arsed to spend a full day honouring veterans . This will be another take on events .
This latest own goal by him just feeds into other policy announcements .
If you’re on the left liberal wing and echoing that superb post by Big G North Wales we need to be worried about what’s to come.
So us liberal lefties are in the weird position of obviously wanting the Tories to lose but to not get pulverized and certainly we don’t want Farage winning in Clacton .
I’m sure the other parties will have their gaffes during the campaign and will have those very bad news days but Sunak really needs to get a grip .
No. We really really really want Farage to win and we want him to beat the Tories to death and we want him to be leader of the opposition and then become prime minister
Look at the polls. He’s the most popular politician in the land. Sure he’s also hated. But the same was true of thatcher. Very popular with some disliked by many - she got things done and didn’t care
What, in is history, makes you think Farage would be a competent, or even good, PM?
He just has to be better than Sunak. Or truss. Or Boris. Or may. Or Cameron. Or brown
It’s not a high bar and then suddenly he’s the best pm in a generation
If you had spent any time with him, talking in a relaxed situation, you would know he’s a complete lightweight, past the golf club bonhomie he’s fucking humourless and witless. He’s amusing for ten minutes but two hours later when you’ve tried to have interesting chats you realise there is nothing there apart from the most basic simplistic opinions in a very narrow sphere of politics.
Its why Trump loves him, he won’t have anything interesting to say, no interesting ideas but will happily parrot back what Trump says like an echo chamber and they all sit grinning about how great they are.
I know you think you are being a bit edgy calling for him to take over but you will the first crying like a baby when you realise what you’ve got. I don’t even live in the UK and worry about what would happen if he was in charge.
Did it ever occur to you he probably thought you were a bit of a dick too?
"What have Brexit and Voldemort got in common ? People find them awful but their name must never be spoken" Die Zeit↙️
"Brexit has become taboo, which, given the problems the country faces, is grotesque" Handelsblatt (🇩🇪 FT) ↘️
Brave for a country which has just downgraded all its economic forecasts.
You do realise that those pesky furriners with their stinky ways have things called “newspapers” that have views independent of their governments don’t you? Or do you think we are too important for others to make comment on us?
Given I was Geschatsfueher in Germany for five years, speak fluent German, read the German press every day and am currently working in Germany. I suspect I have a better feel for the place than you. But dont let that stop you.
A rather robust assessment here, from the chairman of the board of the German stock exchange:
What is the most recent example in the Western World of a party having as high a majority as this, in an actual democracy?
It won’t happen, but if it did they would need to redesign the House of Commons.
Why won't it happen - I mean seriously, who is going to vote for the Tory candidate in enough numbers that they get 200 seats..
DDay thing hurts them with their core support as did partying during COVID and disrespecting the late queen, but i still expect the loyal Tories to turn out.
"What have Brexit and Voldemort got in common ? People find them awful but their name must never be spoken" Die Zeit↙️
"Brexit has become taboo, which, given the problems the country faces, is grotesque" Handelsblatt (🇩🇪 FT) ↘️
Brave for a country which has just downgraded all its economic forecasts.
You do realise that those pesky furriners with their stinky ways have things called “newspapers” that have views independent of their governments don’t you? Or do you think we are too important for others to make comment on us?
Given I was Geschatsfueher in Germany for five years, speak fluent German, read the German press every day and am currently working in Germany. I suspect I have a better feel for the place than you. But dont let that stop you.
Your German spelling certainly seems to be on a par with your English spelling.
People have been struggling to understand several things about the D-Day affair - how Sunak could have been mad enough to leave early, why that time and date for recording the interview were suggested by the Tories, and why it was so far in advance of transmission.
It is conceivable that there was going to be an attempt by senior party figures to take control of the direction of the campaign, and that Sunak was desperate to pre-empt that by recording the interview before it could happen? Perhaps in the same way as in 1990 Thatcher rushed out and told the press she was fighting on, before her colleagues could stop her?
Is there a chance that Reform defections could happen at the deadline and we don’t find out until after 4pm?
Yes, because as I said yesterday there's no way of knowing what nominations have been made until they're announced by the council, unless candidates decide to publicise it themselves, and there's no obligation for them to do that.
Mass announcement at 4:01pm, in advance of the debate, perhaps? Or maybe they’d want to give d-day gate more time to percolate.
In all seriousness although I have money on it I imagine it’s not happening now or we would have heard some rumblings.
"What have Brexit and Voldemort got in common ? People find them awful but their name must never be spoken" Die Zeit↙️
"Brexit has become taboo, which, given the problems the country faces, is grotesque" Handelsblatt (🇩🇪 FT) ↘️
Brave for a country which has just downgraded all its economic forecasts.
You do realise that those pesky furriners with their stinky ways have things called “newspapers” that have views independent of their governments don’t you? Or do you think we are too important for others to make comment on us?
Given I was Geschatsfueher in Germany for five years, speak fluent German, read the German press every day and am currently working in Germany. I suspect I have a better feel for the place than you. But dont let that stop you.
Your German spelling certainly seems to be on a par with your English spelling.
Ever the middle managers call. Senior management dont worry about it.
Next week’s fun will be the mass witch hunt of all candidates from all parties to see who has said despicable things. Hope the Tories have enough money and sense (hoho) to have hired Kroll ready to deep dive on Labour and reform as it might be the only way they get to save seats.
Are there any betting opportunities on how many selected candidates have to withdraw or have party support withdrawn before the election?
What is the most recent example in the Western World of a party having as high a majority as this, in an actual democracy?
It won’t happen, but if it did they would need to redesign the House of Commons.
Why won't it happen - I mean seriously, who is going to vote for the Tory candidate in enough numbers that they get 200 seats..
DDay thing hurts them with their core support as did partying during COVID and disrespecting the late queen, but i still expect the loyal Tories to turn out.
But will they have enough canvassers to drive both of them from the care home to the polling booth?
"What have Brexit and Voldemort got in common ? People find them awful but their name must never be spoken" Die Zeit↙️
"Brexit has become taboo, which, given the problems the country faces, is grotesque" Handelsblatt (🇩🇪 FT) ↘️
Brave for a country which has just downgraded all its economic forecasts.
You do realise that those pesky furriners with their stinky ways have things called “newspapers” that have views independent of their governments don’t you? Or do you think we are too important for others to make comment on us?
Given I was Geschatsfueher in Germany for five years, speak fluent German, read the German press every day and am currently working in Germany. I suspect I have a better feel for the place than you. But dont let that stop you.
Your German spelling certainly seems to be on a par with your English spelling.
Ever the middle managers call. Senior management dont worry about it.
I think you're missing a couple of apostrophes there.
On topic (but it will take me a while to get to it):
Could Political Betting help people become "super-agers"? An article in the May 7th NYT describes the findings from studies in Spain and Chicago of "super-agers", old people who are especially active mentally -- for their age.
Here, for me, is the most interesting finding: "The behaviors of some of the Chicago super-agers were similarly a surprise. Some exercised regularly, but some never had; some stuck to a Mediterranean diet, others subsisted off TV dinners; and a few of them still smoked cigarettes. However, one consistency among the group was that they tended to have strong social relationships, Dr. Rogalski said." (from an article by Dana G. Smith, titled "Peering Inside the Brains of 'Super-Agers')
To the extent that PB helps people have "strong social relationships", it will help them age well.
(And for the application to US politics? Social relationships have broken down in the US over recent decades, weakening families and communities. And that contributes to the widespread unhappiness in this wealthy nation, an unhappiness that is exploited by so many.)
I'm not sure that online relationships are quite the same as real life ones.
"What have Brexit and Voldemort got in common ? People find them awful but their name must never be spoken" Die Zeit↙️
"Brexit has become taboo, which, given the problems the country faces, is grotesque" Handelsblatt (🇩🇪 FT) ↘️
Brave for a country which has just downgraded all its economic forecasts.
You do realise that those pesky furriners with their stinky ways have things called “newspapers” that have views independent of their governments don’t you? Or do you think we are too important for others to make comment on us?
Given I was Geschatsfueher in Germany for five years, speak fluent German, read the German press every day and am currently working in Germany. I suspect I have a better feel for the place than you. But dont let that stop you.
Your German spelling certainly seems to be on a par with your English spelling.
Ever the middle managers call. Senior management dont worry about it.
The word you were trying to articulate is Geschäftsführer, or Geschaeftsfuehrer if you don't have access to umlauts.
"What have Brexit and Voldemort got in common ? People find them awful but their name must never be spoken" Die Zeit↙️
"Brexit has become taboo, which, given the problems the country faces, is grotesque" Handelsblatt (🇩🇪 FT) ↘️
Brave for a country which has just downgraded all its economic forecasts.
You do realise that those pesky furriners with their stinky ways have things called “newspapers” that have views independent of their governments don’t you? Or do you think we are too important for others to make comment on us?
Given I was Geschatsfueher in Germany for five years, speak fluent German, read the German press every day and am currently working in Germany. I suspect I have a better feel for the place than you. But dont let that stop you.
Your German spelling certainly seems to be on a par with your English spelling.
Ever the middle managers call. Senior management dont worry about it.
The word you were trying to articulate is Geschäftsführer, or Geschaeftsfuehrer if you don't have access to umlauts.
Sunak asking young people to do National Service or to volunteer one weekend a month and then couldn’t be arsed to spend a full day honouring veterans . This will be another take on events .
This latest own goal by him just feeds into other policy announcements .
If you’re on the left liberal wing and echoing that superb post by Big G North Wales we need to be worried about what’s to come.
So us liberal lefties are in the weird position of obviously wanting the Tories to lose but to not get pulverized and certainly we don’t want Farage winning in Clacton .
I’m sure the other parties will have their gaffes during the campaign and will have those very bad news days but Sunak really needs to get a grip .
No. We really really really want Farage to win and we want him to beat the Tories to death and we want him to be leader of the opposition and then become prime minister
Look at the polls. He’s the most popular politician in the land. Sure he’s also hated. But the same was true of thatcher. Very popular with some disliked by many - she got things done and didn’t care
What, in is history, makes you think Farage would be a competent, or even good, PM?
He just has to be better than Sunak. Or truss. Or Boris. Or may. Or Cameron. Or brown
It’s not a high bar and then suddenly he’s the best pm in a generation
If you had spent any time with him, talking in a relaxed situation, you would know he’s a complete lightweight, past the golf club bonhomie he’s fucking humourless and witless. He’s amusing for ten minutes but two hours later when you’ve tried to have interesting chats you realise there is nothing there apart from the most basic simplistic opinions in a very narrow sphere of politics.
Its why Trump loves him, he won’t have anything interesting to say, no interesting ideas but will happily parrot back what Trump says like an echo chamber and they all sit grinning about how great they are.
I know you think you are being a bit edgy calling for him to take over but you will the first crying like a baby when you realise what you’ve got. I don’t even live in the UK and worry about what would happen if he was in charge.
Did it ever occur to you he probably thought you were a bit of a dick too?
*Ripping off a quote from Rupert Murdoch
I’m sure he did but weirdly didn’t say anything as I was picking up the tab for the copious quantities of wine. I was actually quite pro his politics at that point so went along at great cost hoping to enjoy the conversation and the meeting and it completely wrecked my opinions of him so I wasn’t sitting there goading him or trying to trip him up which I’m guessing you think I was doing.
I was very disappointed in his understanding of the markets, current affairs and he lacked any clear wide vision. Again I was a soft supporter - Farage curious if you will - before but not after.
Is there a chance that Reform defections could happen at the deadline and we don’t find out until after 4pm?
Yes, because as I said yesterday there's no way of knowing what nominations have been made until they're announced by the council, unless candidates decide to publicise it themselves, and there's no obligation for them to do that.
Mass announcement at 4:01pm, in advance of the debate, perhaps? Or maybe they’d want to give d-day gate more time to percolate.
In all seriousness although I have money on it I imagine it’s not happening now or we would have heard some rumblings.
I thought we might have heard something too though we do still have to remember on current polling and in most seats a Tory candidate transferring to Reform is going from a no-hoper to…. well, most probably a no hoper. There are some seat profiles where that might be different - eg red wall - but most of those MPs seem to have thrown in the towel anyway and probably are more interested in looking for jobs.
It’s all a bit final episode of Blackadder at the moment for the Tories.
It's reached the stage where if they only manage to lose half their seats at the election and end up with about 180 it'll be regarded as a good result.
"What have Brexit and Voldemort got in common ? People find them awful but their name must never be spoken" Die Zeit↙️
"Brexit has become taboo, which, given the problems the country faces, is grotesque" Handelsblatt (🇩🇪 FT) ↘️
Brave for a country which has just downgraded all its economic forecasts.
You do realise that those pesky furriners with their stinky ways have things called “newspapers” that have views independent of their governments don’t you? Or do you think we are too important for others to make comment on us?
Given I was Geschatsfueher in Germany for five years, speak fluent German, read the German press every day and am currently working in Germany. I suspect I have a better feel for the place than you. But dont let that stop you.
Your underwhelming intellect again screams to the fore. You suggested that the views of two newspapers represented the views of a nation. Furthermore the comment they made had nothing to do whatsoever with the economic performance of the country in question. Finally, I make no claim to a special knowledge of Germany, but I know what a newspaper is. Still, carry on with the supercilious grandstanding, it's about all you have.
The right could win big in Europe – thanks to young people
“The radical right channels anti-establishment feelings,” he told the BBC. “They have a bit of a rebellious vibe - especially when it comes to their anti-woke agenda - and that appeals to young people.”
Fair play to the BBC for this article. People make very flawed assumptions about young people.
It’s all a bit final episode of Blackadder at the moment for the Tories.
It's reached the stage where if they only manage to lose half their seats at the election and end up with about 180 it'll be regarded as a good result.
Honestly if they get 180 they should be popping the champagne corks.
"What have Brexit and Voldemort got in common ? People find them awful but their name must never be spoken" Die Zeit↙️
"Brexit has become taboo, which, given the problems the country faces, is grotesque" Handelsblatt (🇩🇪 FT) ↘️
Brave for a country which has just downgraded all its economic forecasts.
You do realise that those pesky furriners with their stinky ways have things called “newspapers” that have views independent of their governments don’t you? Or do you think we are too important for others to make comment on us?
Given I was Geschatsfueher in Germany for five years, speak fluent German, read the German press every day and am currently working in Germany. I suspect I have a better feel for the place than you. But dont let that stop you.
Your German spelling certainly seems to be on a par with your English spelling.
Ever the middle managers call. Senior management dont worry about it.
The word you were trying to articulate is Geschäftsführer, or Geschaeftsfuehrer if you don't have access to umlauts.
Would you like a job as a secretary ?
Using foreign words in an English sentence and completely misspelling them just makes you look like a dick.
Next week’s fun will be the mass witch hunt of all candidates from all parties to see who has said despicable things. Hope the Tories have enough money and sense (hoho) to have hired Kroll ready to deep dive on Labour and reform as it might be the only way they get to save seats.
Are there any betting opportunities on how many selected candidates have to withdraw or have party support withdrawn before the election?
The most inexcusable aspect of Sunak's behaviour over D-day from my perspective is that it has given so much, entirely predictable, publicity to that revolting specimen Mr Farage.
"What have Brexit and Voldemort got in common ? People find them awful but their name must never be spoken" Die Zeit↙️
"Brexit has become taboo, which, given the problems the country faces, is grotesque" Handelsblatt (🇩🇪 FT) ↘️
Brave for a country which has just downgraded all its economic forecasts.
You do realise that those pesky furriners with their stinky ways have things called “newspapers” that have views independent of their governments don’t you? Or do you think we are too important for others to make comment on us?
Given I was Geschatsfueher in Germany for five years, speak fluent German, read the German press every day and am currently working in Germany. I suspect I have a better feel for the place than you. But dont let that stop you.
Your underwhelming intellect again screams to the fore. You suggested that the views of two newspapers represented the views of a nation. Furthermore the comment they made had nothing to do whatsoever with the economic performance of the country in question. Finally, I make no claim to a special knowledge of Germany, but I know what a newspaper is. Still, carry on with the supercilious grandstanding, it's about all you have.
If Reform end up having 100 fewer candidates than the Tories, can they still realistically beat them in vote share?
Would love if a maths boffin could clear this up for me - I may sell my ‘REFUK to beat CON vote share’ right now if so, rather than waiting for after tonight’s debate.
"What have Brexit and Voldemort got in common ? People find them awful but their name must never be spoken" Die Zeit↙️
"Brexit has become taboo, which, given the problems the country faces, is grotesque" Handelsblatt (🇩🇪 FT) ↘️
Brave for a country which has just downgraded all its economic forecasts.
You do realise that those pesky furriners with their stinky ways have things called “newspapers” that have views independent of their governments don’t you? Or do you think we are too important for others to make comment on us?
Given I was Geschatsfueher in Germany for five years, speak fluent German, read the German press every day and am currently working in Germany. I suspect I have a better feel for the place than you. But dont let that stop you.
Your German spelling certainly seems to be on a par with your English spelling.
Ever the middle managers call. Senior management dont worry about it.
The word you were trying to articulate is Geschäftsführer, or Geschaeftsfuehrer if you don't have access to umlauts.
Would you like a job as a secretary ?
Using foreign words in an English sentence and completely misspelling them just makes you look like a dick.
"What have Brexit and Voldemort got in common ? People find them awful but their name must never be spoken" Die Zeit↙️
"Brexit has become taboo, which, given the problems the country faces, is grotesque" Handelsblatt (🇩🇪 FT) ↘️
Brave for a country which has just downgraded all its economic forecasts.
You do realise that those pesky furriners with their stinky ways have things called “newspapers” that have views independent of their governments don’t you? Or do you think we are too important for others to make comment on us?
Given I was Geschatsfueher in Germany for five years, speak fluent German, read the German press every day and am currently working in Germany. I suspect I have a better feel for the place than you. But dont let that stop you.
Your German spelling certainly seems to be on a par with your English spelling.
Ever the middle managers call. Senior management dont worry about it.
The word you were trying to articulate is Geschäftsführer, or Geschaeftsfuehrer if you don't have access to umlauts.
Would you like a job as a secretary ?
Using foreign words in an English sentence and completely misspelling them just makes you look like a dick.
In the debate tonight, Rayner is going to complain that this election was their chance to get themselves across, and explain to the voters the detail and minutia of all their plans for government, but Sunak is deliberately drowning this out and hogging the narrative, with constant stories of his own ineptitude.
Senior Labour sources are upset the voters will go into election day still unclear what Labours actual plans are. They believed the focus of the campaign would be on them and their policies, and suspect Sunak deliberately pulled his Dunkirk Moment stunt to continue to lock Labour out from its deserved special moment in the spotlight.
What's your preview on the all-important Battle of the Big Hair?
Any inside track from the Beeb's hair and makeup team?
Red Angela for the win or Blue Penny to sail away with victory?
There will be plenty of other hair on the platform… well, from six of the debaters at least, so we should be fair and divide attention equally amongst it all?
What would they do in make up with Stephen from Scotland? Too glossy and it could reflect the lights, and prove a distraction advantage when he’s speaking? So a Matt finish on the old egg shell?
What is the most recent example in the Western World of a party having as high a majority as this, in an actual democracy?
Hard to say because most systems used in the West are PR and not directly comparable.
From our history it would be 1931.
In vaguely recent history, you had the 1984 Canadian election where the Tories won three-quarters of the seats; still well below these estimates, but in line with the more modest estimates that still have the Tories in the hundreds rather than the dozens.
In the debate tonight, Rayner is going to complain that this election was their chance to get themselves across, and explain to the voters the detail and minutia of all their plans for government, but Sunak is deliberately drowning this out and hogging the narrative, with constant stories of his own ineptitude.
Senior Labour sources are upset the voters will go into election day still unclear what Labours actual plans are. They believed the focus of the campaign would be on them and their policies, and suspect Sunak deliberately pulled his Dunkirk Moment stunt to continue to lock Labour out from its deserved special moment in the spotlight.
What's your preview on the all-important Battle of the Big Hair?
Any inside track from the Beeb's hair and makeup team?
Red Angela for the win or Blue Penny to sail away with victory?
There will be plenty of other hair on the platform… well, from six of the debaters at least, so we should be fair and divide attention equally amongst it all?
What would they do in make up with Stephen from Scotland? Too glossy and it could reflect the lights, and prove a distraction advantage when he’s speaking? So a Matt finish on the old egg shell?
Seems there’s some last minute shenanigans in Hemel Hempstead as the recently selected Tory candidate resigns/is dumped at the last minute. When the story is written of this election it might not fit in one volume.
My Christmas list is going to be wall-to-wall memoirs and behind the scenes stories of this election because there are so many aspects that are just inexplicable and there are still 27 days to polling day.
Comments
Has anyone noticed, so resilient is the service?
I can't quite get over how perfectly the Conservatives have managed a form of negative triangulation: no matter who you are, they've got a vote-losing policy laser-targeted at pissing you off.
One nation liberals are mad about Rwanda, mad about the rhetoric on immigration, and mad about the clashes with international law. Immigration restrictionists are furious that net migration has reached record highs fuelled by low skilled workers flooding.
Hardcore Remainers are upset about about Brexit. Hardcore Brexiteers are upset about Brexit, because the party signed a deal that they think gives the EU too much ability to meddle in our affairs.
Small state conservatives are mad that taxes have been driven to post-war highs. Advocates for state spending are mad that public services are falling apart.
Young people are furious because Rishi Sunak is pitching them in for national service and the housing market is a dysfunctional mess. Old people are furious because he flaked on the D-Day commemorations (in addition to everything else!)
Cultural conservatives are furious that they've dragged their heels on combating Islamism, pushing back on critical race theory or removing trans ideology from schools, instead preferring to talk a great deal and do nothing. Cultural liberals are furious that they've described pro-Palestine protests as "hate marches" or ramped up rhetoric about these at all.
They've managed to brand themselves as the low tax, culture wars, hostile to immigration party while actually behaving like a party to the Left of New Labour.
And all of this, all of it, might just have been forgiveable if they'd shown some basic competence in doing so, if living standards had improved or state services had at least stayed stable. But instead they've floundered, flailed, and wasted 14 years in office. They've let problems they inherited get worse, watched new ones develop, and the distinct sense is that far too many of them did nothing with their time in office but throw Downing Street parties, whether or not the rest of the nation was in lockdown.
Whatever's left of the party after the vote – if there's a party left after the vote! – needs to work out what it's actually for. "Not being Labour" won't cut it anymore.
Senior Labour sources are upset the voters will go into election day still unclear what Labours actual plans are. They believed the focus of the campaign would be on them and their policies, and suspect Sunak deliberately pulled his Dunkirk Moment stunt to continue to lock Labour out from its deserved special moment in the spotlight.
In any case, I think it's shocking that @TimS has failed to find a winnable seat for the iconic Madge Bishop (nee Ramsay)
Majority of 14,000 and looks like they won’t be able to field a candidate.
Also I see Rishi has been in Stroud today. WTF? It only had a majority of about 2k in 2019 and the Yougov MRP predicts 51% Lab, 25% Con. Even with a bit of swingback, it's not a seat the Cons can realistically hold. Is it just machismo to pretend that the Cons can hold on to some sort of majority?
The usual nonsense to make us all poorer.
2 leading German papers on the UK election today
"What have Brexit and Voldemort got in common ? People find them awful but their name must never be spoken"
Die Zeit↙️
"Brexit has become taboo, which, given the problems the country faces, is grotesque"
Handelsblatt (🇩🇪 FT) ↘️
https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1799085755186458905?s=46
Seems someone did an LRM on the now previous Tory candidate
Any inside track from the Beeb's hair and makeup team?
Red Angela for the win or Blue Penny to sail away with victory?
Is someone digging up dirt on Tory candidates and telling them right before the deadline?
EDIT: can see now they have been suspended
LAB: 45% (-1)
CON: 20% (-1)
RFM: 15% (+2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Via @wethinkpolling, 6-7 Jun.
Changes w/ 30-31 May.
Fury from within Tory Party about Sunak's early Normandy exit. A minister said they were “astonished” and ex-minister said it was "fucking nuts"
Big opportunity now for Labour to paint Starmer as a statesman on world stage — as I write in
@PoliticoEurope
https://x.com/Stefan_Boscia/status/1799083749080174881
When we met him last week on our way to the line.
Now the MPs he smiled at are most of 'em sacked,
And we're cursing his staff for incompetent swine.
“He's a cheery old card,” grunted Harry to Krishnan
As they slogged up to canvass and leaflet in Lothian
But he did for them both by his plan of election.
with apologies to Siegfried Sassoon
She’ll emphasise that he has apologised.
Which works beautifully for her on every level.
CON 30
LAB 531
LIB 53
REF 0
GRN 1
SNP 13
PLC 4
Labour majority of 412.
👍 Approve: 23% (-1)
👎 Disapprove: 55% (NC)
😐 Neither: 22% (+1)
https://x.com/wethinkpolling/status/1799086543031726480
And if the Tory doldrums weren’t enough to put a broad grin on Sir Keir Starmer’s face, then this surely must... his net approval surged by 13 points to +14 this week – his highest ever.
👍 Approve: 42% (+7)
👎 Disapprove: 28% (-6)
😐 Neither: 31% (NC)
Is it a post-debate bounce? Mr Starmer also strikes gold with another huge lead, this time in our ‘preferred Prime Minister’ tracker where he gains another two points to create a 22-point gap.
🔴 Keir Starmer: 47% (+2)
🔵 Rishi Sunak: 25% (NC)
⚪ Don’t know: 28% (-3)
Kind of feels like SKS has won.
From our history it would be 1931.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cVnRdQ4UJbI
This stuff will become more and more mainstream and it will drive people on the left completely mad. But it is an inevitable reaction to the cultural dominance of the left, eventually the pendulum swings the other way.
*Ripping off a quote from Rupert Murdoch
https://brusselssignal.eu/2024/06/its-over-german-economic-policy-a-sheer-catastrophe-stock-exchange-chief-claims/
People have been struggling to understand several things about the D-Day affair - how Sunak could have been mad enough to leave early, why that time and date for recording the interview were suggested by the Tories, and why it was so far in advance of transmission.
It is conceivable that there was going to be an attempt by senior party figures to take control of the direction of the campaign, and that Sunak was desperate to pre-empt that by recording the interview before it could happen? Perhaps in the same way as in 1990 Thatcher rushed out and told the press she was fighting on, before her colleagues could stop her?
In all seriousness although I have money on it I imagine it’s not happening now or we would have heard some rumblings.
Are there any betting opportunities on how many selected candidates have to withdraw or have party support withdrawn before the election?
-- you
"Forecasts are not reality."
-- also you
But you believe them, so be afraid.
I was very disappointed in his understanding of the markets, current affairs and he lacked any clear wide vision. Again I was a soft supporter - Farage curious if you will - before but not after.
Statement of persons nominated in one hour.
The right could win big in Europe – thanks to young people
“The radical right channels anti-establishment feelings,” he told the BBC. “They have a bit of a rebellious vibe - especially when it comes to their anti-woke agenda - and that appeals to young people.”
Fair play to the BBC for this article. People make very flawed assumptions about young people.
@Moreincommon_
- LAB: 46 (-)
- CON: 25 (-2)
- REF: 11 (+1)
- LD: 9 (+1)
- GRN: 6 (+1)
(5-7 June)
Starmer now has 18-point lead over Sunak on who would be best PM
https://x.com/AdamBienkov/status/1799093963921699210
Disaster.
It's be raining bankers in the atrium.
I think it’s quite plausible it could cause a 5 point hit, give or take.
Would love if a maths boffin could clear this up for me - I may sell my ‘REFUK to beat CON vote share’ right now if so, rather than waiting for after tonight’s debate.
What would they do in make up with Stephen from Scotland? Too glossy and it could reflect the lights, and prove a distraction advantage when he’s speaking? So a Matt finish on the old egg shell?
Sunak on -32
The polls this weekend could make for interesting viewing.
To tell you the truth, I've forgotten myself in all this excitement.