"What have Brexit and Voldemort got in common ? People find them awful but their name must never be spoken" Die Zeit↙️
"Brexit has become taboo, which, given the problems the country faces, is grotesque" Handelsblatt (🇩🇪 FT) ↘️
Brave for a country which has just downgraded all its economic forecasts.
You do realise that those pesky furriners with their stinky ways have things called “newspapers” that have views independent of their governments don’t you? Or do you think we are too important for others to make comment on us?
What is the most recent example in the Western World of a party having as high a majority as this, in an actual democracy?
I'd guess it's pretty unlikely in proportional representation systems or the like. FPTP, on the other hand, tends to give quasi-stable two-party equilibria that, when they do flip, lead to dramatic changes of fortune.
Is there a chance that Reform defections could happen at the deadline and we don’t find out until after 4pm?
Yes, because as I said yesterday there's no way of knowing what nominations have been made until they're announced by the council, unless candidates decide to publicise it themselves, and there's no obligation for them to do that.
I'm starting to think that Sunak may be an even worse PM than Truss. At least she didn't embarrass herself when the Queen died and she left promptly when she knew it was over.
Also I see Rishi has been in Stroud today. WTF? It only had a majority of about 2k in 2019 and the Yougov MRP predicts 51% Lab, 25% Con. Even with a bit of swingback, it's not a seat the Cons can realistically hold. Is it just machismo to pretend that the Cons can hold on to some sort of majority?
The Green Party candidate may split the vote, and let the Tory come through the middle.
Con Hemel Hempstead candidate has quit (personal reasons). 35 minutes to find another candidate…
Majority of 14,000 and looks like they won’t be able to field a candidate.
Er... what?
Pretty much my reaction. Crick sounding like they may have someone else lined up but it’ll be tight. Wonder what those reasons were…
Is someone digging up dirt on Tory candidates and telling them right before the deadline?
It would seem so.
It'll be a rival who wants the gig - last minute knifing leaving them the only option
Would be funny if Sunak was knifed, Suella became leader and the Tories somehow won the election. Everyone would be banging their heads on the table wishing they had just shut up about D-day.
Popstar Holly Valance holds crunch last minute talks with Reform UK to stand against Tory chairman Richard Holden in election. She must decide by 4pm today.
This could start a political arms race to recruit Australian soap stars.
Surely Reform are choosing on the basis of their, er, robust political views?
In which case I imagine they'll be drumming up Eric Clapton and Morrissey next.
Her political views have a definite audience. Stop making kids depressed with climate catastrophism, stop trans stuff in schools, keep sexuality private. Not too sure about her comments on Andrew Tate though.
This stuff will become more and more mainstream and it will drive people on the left completely mad. But it is an inevitable reaction to the cultural dominance of the left, eventually the pendulum swings the other way.
"What have Brexit and Voldemort got in common ? People find them awful but their name must never be spoken" Die Zeit↙️
"Brexit has become taboo, which, given the problems the country faces, is grotesque" Handelsblatt (🇩🇪 FT) ↘️
Brave for a country which has just downgraded all its economic forecasts.
You do realise that those pesky furriners with their stinky ways have things called “newspapers” that have views independent of their governments don’t you? Or do you think we are too important for others to make comment on us?
Given I was Geschatsfueher in Germany for five years, speak fluent German, read the German press every day and am currently working in Germany. I suspect I have a better feel for the place than you. But dont let that stop you.
Sunak asking young people to do National Service or to volunteer one weekend a month and then couldn’t be arsed to spend a full day honouring veterans . This will be another take on events .
This latest own goal by him just feeds into other policy announcements .
If you’re on the left liberal wing and echoing that superb post by Big G North Wales we need to be worried about what’s to come.
So us liberal lefties are in the weird position of obviously wanting the Tories to lose but to not get pulverized and certainly we don’t want Farage winning in Clacton .
I’m sure the other parties will have their gaffes during the campaign and will have those very bad news days but Sunak really needs to get a grip .
No. We really really really want Farage to win and we want him to beat the Tories to death and we want him to be leader of the opposition and then become prime minister
Look at the polls. He’s the most popular politician in the land. Sure he’s also hated. But the same was true of thatcher. Very popular with some disliked by many - she got things done and didn’t care
What, in is history, makes you think Farage would be a competent, or even good, PM?
He just has to be better than Sunak. Or truss. Or Boris. Or may. Or Cameron. Or brown
It’s not a high bar and then suddenly he’s the best pm in a generation
If you had spent any time with him, talking in a relaxed situation, you would know he’s a complete lightweight, past the golf club bonhomie he’s fucking humourless and witless. He’s amusing for ten minutes but two hours later when you’ve tried to have interesting chats you realise there is nothing there apart from the most basic simplistic opinions in a very narrow sphere of politics.
Its why Trump loves him, he won’t have anything interesting to say, no interesting ideas but will happily parrot back what Trump says like an echo chamber and they all sit grinning about how great they are.
I know you think you are being a bit edgy calling for him to take over but you will the first crying like a baby when you realise what you’ve got. I don’t even live in the UK and worry about what would happen if he was in charge.
Did it ever occur to you he probably thought you were a bit of a dick too?
"What have Brexit and Voldemort got in common ? People find them awful but their name must never be spoken" Die Zeit↙️
"Brexit has become taboo, which, given the problems the country faces, is grotesque" Handelsblatt (🇩🇪 FT) ↘️
Brave for a country which has just downgraded all its economic forecasts.
You do realise that those pesky furriners with their stinky ways have things called “newspapers” that have views independent of their governments don’t you? Or do you think we are too important for others to make comment on us?
Given I was Geschatsfueher in Germany for five years, speak fluent German, read the German press every day and am currently working in Germany. I suspect I have a better feel for the place than you. But dont let that stop you.
A rather robust assessment here, from the chairman of the board of the German stock exchange:
What is the most recent example in the Western World of a party having as high a majority as this, in an actual democracy?
It won’t happen, but if it did they would need to redesign the House of Commons.
Why won't it happen - I mean seriously, who is going to vote for the Tory candidate in enough numbers that they get 200 seats..
DDay thing hurts them with their core support as did partying during COVID and disrespecting the late queen, but i still expect the loyal Tories to turn out.
"What have Brexit and Voldemort got in common ? People find them awful but their name must never be spoken" Die Zeit↙️
"Brexit has become taboo, which, given the problems the country faces, is grotesque" Handelsblatt (🇩🇪 FT) ↘️
Brave for a country which has just downgraded all its economic forecasts.
You do realise that those pesky furriners with their stinky ways have things called “newspapers” that have views independent of their governments don’t you? Or do you think we are too important for others to make comment on us?
Given I was Geschatsfueher in Germany for five years, speak fluent German, read the German press every day and am currently working in Germany. I suspect I have a better feel for the place than you. But dont let that stop you.
Your German spelling certainly seems to be on a par with your English spelling.
People have been struggling to understand several things about the D-Day affair - how Sunak could have been mad enough to leave early, why that time and date for recording the interview were suggested by the Tories, and why it was so far in advance of transmission.
It is conceivable that there was going to be an attempt by senior party figures to take control of the direction of the campaign, and that Sunak was desperate to pre-empt that by recording the interview before it could happen? Perhaps in the same way as in 1990 Thatcher rushed out and told the press she was fighting on, before her colleagues could stop her?
Is there a chance that Reform defections could happen at the deadline and we don’t find out until after 4pm?
Yes, because as I said yesterday there's no way of knowing what nominations have been made until they're announced by the council, unless candidates decide to publicise it themselves, and there's no obligation for them to do that.
Mass announcement at 4:01pm, in advance of the debate, perhaps? Or maybe they’d want to give d-day gate more time to percolate.
In all seriousness although I have money on it I imagine it’s not happening now or we would have heard some rumblings.
"What have Brexit and Voldemort got in common ? People find them awful but their name must never be spoken" Die Zeit↙️
"Brexit has become taboo, which, given the problems the country faces, is grotesque" Handelsblatt (🇩🇪 FT) ↘️
Brave for a country which has just downgraded all its economic forecasts.
You do realise that those pesky furriners with their stinky ways have things called “newspapers” that have views independent of their governments don’t you? Or do you think we are too important for others to make comment on us?
Given I was Geschatsfueher in Germany for five years, speak fluent German, read the German press every day and am currently working in Germany. I suspect I have a better feel for the place than you. But dont let that stop you.
Your German spelling certainly seems to be on a par with your English spelling.
Ever the middle managers call. Senior management dont worry about it.
Next week’s fun will be the mass witch hunt of all candidates from all parties to see who has said despicable things. Hope the Tories have enough money and sense (hoho) to have hired Kroll ready to deep dive on Labour and reform as it might be the only way they get to save seats.
Are there any betting opportunities on how many selected candidates have to withdraw or have party support withdrawn before the election?
What is the most recent example in the Western World of a party having as high a majority as this, in an actual democracy?
It won’t happen, but if it did they would need to redesign the House of Commons.
Why won't it happen - I mean seriously, who is going to vote for the Tory candidate in enough numbers that they get 200 seats..
DDay thing hurts them with their core support as did partying during COVID and disrespecting the late queen, but i still expect the loyal Tories to turn out.
But will they have enough canvassers to drive both of them from the care home to the polling booth?
"What have Brexit and Voldemort got in common ? People find them awful but their name must never be spoken" Die Zeit↙️
"Brexit has become taboo, which, given the problems the country faces, is grotesque" Handelsblatt (🇩🇪 FT) ↘️
Brave for a country which has just downgraded all its economic forecasts.
You do realise that those pesky furriners with their stinky ways have things called “newspapers” that have views independent of their governments don’t you? Or do you think we are too important for others to make comment on us?
Given I was Geschatsfueher in Germany for five years, speak fluent German, read the German press every day and am currently working in Germany. I suspect I have a better feel for the place than you. But dont let that stop you.
Your German spelling certainly seems to be on a par with your English spelling.
Ever the middle managers call. Senior management dont worry about it.
I think you're missing a couple of apostrophes there.
On topic (but it will take me a while to get to it):
Could Political Betting help people become "super-agers"? An article in the May 7th NYT describes the findings from studies in Spain and Chicago of "super-agers", old people who are especially active mentally -- for their age.
Here, for me, is the most interesting finding: "The behaviors of some of the Chicago super-agers were similarly a surprise. Some exercised regularly, but some never had; some stuck to a Mediterranean diet, others subsisted off TV dinners; and a few of them still smoked cigarettes. However, one consistency among the group was that they tended to have strong social relationships, Dr. Rogalski said." (from an article by Dana G. Smith, titled "Peering Inside the Brains of 'Super-Agers')
To the extent that PB helps people have "strong social relationships", it will help them age well.
(And for the application to US politics? Social relationships have broken down in the US over recent decades, weakening families and communities. And that contributes to the widespread unhappiness in this wealthy nation, an unhappiness that is exploited by so many.)
I'm not sure that online relationships are quite the same as real life ones.
"What have Brexit and Voldemort got in common ? People find them awful but their name must never be spoken" Die Zeit↙️
"Brexit has become taboo, which, given the problems the country faces, is grotesque" Handelsblatt (🇩🇪 FT) ↘️
Brave for a country which has just downgraded all its economic forecasts.
You do realise that those pesky furriners with their stinky ways have things called “newspapers” that have views independent of their governments don’t you? Or do you think we are too important for others to make comment on us?
Given I was Geschatsfueher in Germany for five years, speak fluent German, read the German press every day and am currently working in Germany. I suspect I have a better feel for the place than you. But dont let that stop you.
Your German spelling certainly seems to be on a par with your English spelling.
Ever the middle managers call. Senior management dont worry about it.
The word you were trying to articulate is Geschäftsführer, or Geschaeftsfuehrer if you don't have access to umlauts.
"What have Brexit and Voldemort got in common ? People find them awful but their name must never be spoken" Die Zeit↙️
"Brexit has become taboo, which, given the problems the country faces, is grotesque" Handelsblatt (🇩🇪 FT) ↘️
Brave for a country which has just downgraded all its economic forecasts.
You do realise that those pesky furriners with their stinky ways have things called “newspapers” that have views independent of their governments don’t you? Or do you think we are too important for others to make comment on us?
Given I was Geschatsfueher in Germany for five years, speak fluent German, read the German press every day and am currently working in Germany. I suspect I have a better feel for the place than you. But dont let that stop you.
Your German spelling certainly seems to be on a par with your English spelling.
Ever the middle managers call. Senior management dont worry about it.
The word you were trying to articulate is Geschäftsführer, or Geschaeftsfuehrer if you don't have access to umlauts.
Sunak asking young people to do National Service or to volunteer one weekend a month and then couldn’t be arsed to spend a full day honouring veterans . This will be another take on events .
This latest own goal by him just feeds into other policy announcements .
If you’re on the left liberal wing and echoing that superb post by Big G North Wales we need to be worried about what’s to come.
So us liberal lefties are in the weird position of obviously wanting the Tories to lose but to not get pulverized and certainly we don’t want Farage winning in Clacton .
I’m sure the other parties will have their gaffes during the campaign and will have those very bad news days but Sunak really needs to get a grip .
No. We really really really want Farage to win and we want him to beat the Tories to death and we want him to be leader of the opposition and then become prime minister
Look at the polls. He’s the most popular politician in the land. Sure he’s also hated. But the same was true of thatcher. Very popular with some disliked by many - she got things done and didn’t care
What, in is history, makes you think Farage would be a competent, or even good, PM?
He just has to be better than Sunak. Or truss. Or Boris. Or may. Or Cameron. Or brown
It’s not a high bar and then suddenly he’s the best pm in a generation
If you had spent any time with him, talking in a relaxed situation, you would know he’s a complete lightweight, past the golf club bonhomie he’s fucking humourless and witless. He’s amusing for ten minutes but two hours later when you’ve tried to have interesting chats you realise there is nothing there apart from the most basic simplistic opinions in a very narrow sphere of politics.
Its why Trump loves him, he won’t have anything interesting to say, no interesting ideas but will happily parrot back what Trump says like an echo chamber and they all sit grinning about how great they are.
I know you think you are being a bit edgy calling for him to take over but you will the first crying like a baby when you realise what you’ve got. I don’t even live in the UK and worry about what would happen if he was in charge.
Did it ever occur to you he probably thought you were a bit of a dick too?
*Ripping off a quote from Rupert Murdoch
I’m sure he did but weirdly didn’t say anything as I was picking up the tab for the copious quantities of wine. I was actually quite pro his politics at that point so went along at great cost hoping to enjoy the conversation and the meeting and it completely wrecked my opinions of him so I wasn’t sitting there goading him or trying to trip him up which I’m guessing you think I was doing.
I was very disappointed in his understanding of the markets, current affairs and he lacked any clear wide vision. Again I was a soft supporter - Farage curious if you will - before but not after.
Is there a chance that Reform defections could happen at the deadline and we don’t find out until after 4pm?
Yes, because as I said yesterday there's no way of knowing what nominations have been made until they're announced by the council, unless candidates decide to publicise it themselves, and there's no obligation for them to do that.
Mass announcement at 4:01pm, in advance of the debate, perhaps? Or maybe they’d want to give d-day gate more time to percolate.
In all seriousness although I have money on it I imagine it’s not happening now or we would have heard some rumblings.
I thought we might have heard something too though we do still have to remember on current polling and in most seats a Tory candidate transferring to Reform is going from a no-hoper to…. well, most probably a no hoper. There are some seat profiles where that might be different - eg red wall - but most of those MPs seem to have thrown in the towel anyway and probably are more interested in looking for jobs.
It’s all a bit final episode of Blackadder at the moment for the Tories.
It's reached the stage where if they only manage to lose half their seats at the election and end up with about 180 it'll be regarded as a good result.
"What have Brexit and Voldemort got in common ? People find them awful but their name must never be spoken" Die Zeit↙️
"Brexit has become taboo, which, given the problems the country faces, is grotesque" Handelsblatt (🇩🇪 FT) ↘️
Brave for a country which has just downgraded all its economic forecasts.
You do realise that those pesky furriners with their stinky ways have things called “newspapers” that have views independent of their governments don’t you? Or do you think we are too important for others to make comment on us?
Given I was Geschatsfueher in Germany for five years, speak fluent German, read the German press every day and am currently working in Germany. I suspect I have a better feel for the place than you. But dont let that stop you.
Your underwhelming intellect again screams to the fore. You suggested that the views of two newspapers represented the views of a nation. Furthermore the comment they made had nothing to do whatsoever with the economic performance of the country in question. Finally, I make no claim to a special knowledge of Germany, but I know what a newspaper is. Still, carry on with the supercilious grandstanding, it's about all you have.
The right could win big in Europe – thanks to young people
“The radical right channels anti-establishment feelings,” he told the BBC. “They have a bit of a rebellious vibe - especially when it comes to their anti-woke agenda - and that appeals to young people.”
Fair play to the BBC for this article. People make very flawed assumptions about young people.
It’s all a bit final episode of Blackadder at the moment for the Tories.
It's reached the stage where if they only manage to lose half their seats at the election and end up with about 180 it'll be regarded as a good result.
Honestly if they get 180 they should be popping the champagne corks.
"What have Brexit and Voldemort got in common ? People find them awful but their name must never be spoken" Die Zeit↙️
"Brexit has become taboo, which, given the problems the country faces, is grotesque" Handelsblatt (🇩🇪 FT) ↘️
Brave for a country which has just downgraded all its economic forecasts.
You do realise that those pesky furriners with their stinky ways have things called “newspapers” that have views independent of their governments don’t you? Or do you think we are too important for others to make comment on us?
Given I was Geschatsfueher in Germany for five years, speak fluent German, read the German press every day and am currently working in Germany. I suspect I have a better feel for the place than you. But dont let that stop you.
Your German spelling certainly seems to be on a par with your English spelling.
Ever the middle managers call. Senior management dont worry about it.
The word you were trying to articulate is Geschäftsführer, or Geschaeftsfuehrer if you don't have access to umlauts.
Would you like a job as a secretary ?
Using foreign words in an English sentence and completely misspelling them just makes you look like a dick.
Next week’s fun will be the mass witch hunt of all candidates from all parties to see who has said despicable things. Hope the Tories have enough money and sense (hoho) to have hired Kroll ready to deep dive on Labour and reform as it might be the only way they get to save seats.
Are there any betting opportunities on how many selected candidates have to withdraw or have party support withdrawn before the election?
The most inexcusable aspect of Sunak's behaviour over D-day from my perspective is that it has given so much, entirely predictable, publicity to that revolting specimen Mr Farage.
"What have Brexit and Voldemort got in common ? People find them awful but their name must never be spoken" Die Zeit↙️
"Brexit has become taboo, which, given the problems the country faces, is grotesque" Handelsblatt (🇩🇪 FT) ↘️
Brave for a country which has just downgraded all its economic forecasts.
You do realise that those pesky furriners with their stinky ways have things called “newspapers” that have views independent of their governments don’t you? Or do you think we are too important for others to make comment on us?
Given I was Geschatsfueher in Germany for five years, speak fluent German, read the German press every day and am currently working in Germany. I suspect I have a better feel for the place than you. But dont let that stop you.
Your underwhelming intellect again screams to the fore. You suggested that the views of two newspapers represented the views of a nation. Furthermore the comment they made had nothing to do whatsoever with the economic performance of the country in question. Finally, I make no claim to a special knowledge of Germany, but I know what a newspaper is. Still, carry on with the supercilious grandstanding, it's about all you have.
If Reform end up having 100 fewer candidates than the Tories, can they still realistically beat them in vote share?
Would love if a maths boffin could clear this up for me - I may sell my ‘REFUK to beat CON vote share’ right now if so, rather than waiting for after tonight’s debate.
"What have Brexit and Voldemort got in common ? People find them awful but their name must never be spoken" Die Zeit↙️
"Brexit has become taboo, which, given the problems the country faces, is grotesque" Handelsblatt (🇩🇪 FT) ↘️
Brave for a country which has just downgraded all its economic forecasts.
You do realise that those pesky furriners with their stinky ways have things called “newspapers” that have views independent of their governments don’t you? Or do you think we are too important for others to make comment on us?
Given I was Geschatsfueher in Germany for five years, speak fluent German, read the German press every day and am currently working in Germany. I suspect I have a better feel for the place than you. But dont let that stop you.
Your German spelling certainly seems to be on a par with your English spelling.
Ever the middle managers call. Senior management dont worry about it.
The word you were trying to articulate is Geschäftsführer, or Geschaeftsfuehrer if you don't have access to umlauts.
Would you like a job as a secretary ?
Using foreign words in an English sentence and completely misspelling them just makes you look like a dick.
"What have Brexit and Voldemort got in common ? People find them awful but their name must never be spoken" Die Zeit↙️
"Brexit has become taboo, which, given the problems the country faces, is grotesque" Handelsblatt (🇩🇪 FT) ↘️
Brave for a country which has just downgraded all its economic forecasts.
You do realise that those pesky furriners with their stinky ways have things called “newspapers” that have views independent of their governments don’t you? Or do you think we are too important for others to make comment on us?
Given I was Geschatsfueher in Germany for five years, speak fluent German, read the German press every day and am currently working in Germany. I suspect I have a better feel for the place than you. But dont let that stop you.
Your German spelling certainly seems to be on a par with your English spelling.
Ever the middle managers call. Senior management dont worry about it.
The word you were trying to articulate is Geschäftsführer, or Geschaeftsfuehrer if you don't have access to umlauts.
Would you like a job as a secretary ?
Using foreign words in an English sentence and completely misspelling them just makes you look like a dick.
In the debate tonight, Rayner is going to complain that this election was their chance to get themselves across, and explain to the voters the detail and minutia of all their plans for government, but Sunak is deliberately drowning this out and hogging the narrative, with constant stories of his own ineptitude.
Senior Labour sources are upset the voters will go into election day still unclear what Labours actual plans are. They believed the focus of the campaign would be on them and their policies, and suspect Sunak deliberately pulled his Dunkirk Moment stunt to continue to lock Labour out from its deserved special moment in the spotlight.
What's your preview on the all-important Battle of the Big Hair?
Any inside track from the Beeb's hair and makeup team?
Red Angela for the win or Blue Penny to sail away with victory?
There will be plenty of other hair on the platform… well, from six of the debaters at least, so we should be fair and divide attention equally amongst it all?
What would they do in make up with Stephen from Scotland? Too glossy and it could reflect the lights, and prove a distraction advantage when he’s speaking? So a Matt finish on the old egg shell?
What is the most recent example in the Western World of a party having as high a majority as this, in an actual democracy?
Hard to say because most systems used in the West are PR and not directly comparable.
From our history it would be 1931.
In vaguely recent history, you had the 1984 Canadian election where the Tories won three-quarters of the seats; still well below these estimates, but in line with the more modest estimates that still have the Tories in the hundreds rather than the dozens.
In the debate tonight, Rayner is going to complain that this election was their chance to get themselves across, and explain to the voters the detail and minutia of all their plans for government, but Sunak is deliberately drowning this out and hogging the narrative, with constant stories of his own ineptitude.
Senior Labour sources are upset the voters will go into election day still unclear what Labours actual plans are. They believed the focus of the campaign would be on them and their policies, and suspect Sunak deliberately pulled his Dunkirk Moment stunt to continue to lock Labour out from its deserved special moment in the spotlight.
What's your preview on the all-important Battle of the Big Hair?
Any inside track from the Beeb's hair and makeup team?
Red Angela for the win or Blue Penny to sail away with victory?
There will be plenty of other hair on the platform… well, from six of the debaters at least, so we should be fair and divide attention equally amongst it all?
What would they do in make up with Stephen from Scotland? Too glossy and it could reflect the lights, and prove a distraction advantage when he’s speaking? So a Matt finish on the old egg shell?
Seems there’s some last minute shenanigans in Hemel Hempstead as the recently selected Tory candidate resigns/is dumped at the last minute. When the story is written of this election it might not fit in one volume.
My Christmas list is going to be wall-to-wall memoirs and behind the scenes stories of this election because there are so many aspects that are just inexplicable and there are still 27 days to polling day.
If Reform end up having 100 fewer candidates than the Tories, can they still realistically beat them in vote share?
Would love if a maths boffin could clear this up for me - I may sell my ‘REFUK to beat CON vote share’ right now if so, rather than waiting for after tonight’s debate.
I think REF can still do it even with 100 fewer candidates provided they are a decent few points ahead of the Tories overall, is that right?
I don't fancy Penny Mourdant job this evening. It bad enough having 6 others gang up on you in a debate over your record in government, now what does she do about Sunak decision?
Call off the debate and replace the questions with a bout of mud wrestling between Pens and Ange.
(Channelling my own "not me too" fantasy there perhaps.)
It seems like incredibly old news now but worth noting that the debate had no effect on VI and the 2K Lie might actually have depressed the Tory score somewhat. Just caught up with Question Time and it was very bad indeed on the 2K Lie for the Tories. Any short term gain they might have got from 'landing' it on the night rapidly unravelled, and backfired.
Another big call @MoonRabbit got right. Kudos to her.
I will say this about Starmer. It isn’t just good luck that gets someone to a point where there is simply no immediate focal point of opposition. He has managed to make Labour either so attractive to so many people, or at least people are apathetic/unperturbed by the thought of a Labour government, that he has hoovered up 40+% of the vote with no clear opponent. Normally FPTP can be relied upon to give one opposition party a leg up, as the best placed to beat the first party.
Of course there’s still some time for that challenger to emerge, but time is running out, and it’s increasingly likely that challenge cannot be brought by Rishi Sunak…
In the debate tonight, Rayner is going to complain that this election was their chance to get themselves across, and explain to the voters the detail and minutia of all their plans for government, but Sunak is deliberately drowning this out and hogging the narrative, with constant stories of his own ineptitude.
Senior Labour sources are upset the voters will go into election day still unclear what Labours actual plans are. They believed the focus of the campaign would be on them and their policies, and suspect Sunak deliberately pulled his Dunkirk Moment stunt to continue to lock Labour out from its deserved special moment in the spotlight.
What's your preview on the all-important Battle of the Big Hair?
Any inside track from the Beeb's hair and makeup team?
Red Angela for the win or Blue Penny to sail away with victory?
There will be plenty of other hair on the platform… well, from six of the debaters at least, so we should be fair and divide attention equally amongst it all?
What would they do in make up with Stephen from Scotland? Too glossy and it could reflect the lights, and prove a distraction advantage when he’s speaking? So a Matt finish on the old egg shell?
The Tory answers clearly laid out by Sunak, for his party to follow - waiting lists are down, boat crossings are down, pensioners have never paid tax, Rwanda will be a fabulous deterrent, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do most of it.
To what extent is everyone else lined up now with responses, soundbites, even cutting jokes to each of those ridiculous lies. So tonight really is all about Penny. How does she answer?
With YouGov changing their methodology, I am using the numbers provided by YouGov on their old methodology so that I have a consistent and comparable set of data. Similarly I am not incorporating other polling companies, of which there are many.
This average does not try and predict the result, rather than provide a comparable tracked data.
This weeks figures C 21.8% (-0.9) L 45.0% (-0.3) LD 9.5% (+0.3) SNP 2.5% (-0.2) G 5.0% (-0.5) RUK 13.3% (+1.5)
Pre D-Daygate of course.
Conservatives still above the lowest of 21.3% during the Truss epoch.
Seems there’s some last minute shenanigans in Hemel Hempstead as the recently selected Tory candidate resigns/is dumped at the last minute. When the story is written of this election it might not fit in one volume.
My Christmas list is going to be wall-to-wall memoirs and behind the scenes stories of this election because there are so many aspects that are just inexplicable and there are still 27 days to polling day.
Is this election actually happening or am I in some strange fever dream? What the hell is going to happen next?
Seems there’s some last minute shenanigans in Hemel Hempstead as the recently selected Tory candidate resigns/is dumped at the last minute. When the story is written of this election it might not fit in one volume.
My Christmas list is going to be wall-to-wall memoirs and behind the scenes stories of this election because there are so many aspects that are just inexplicable and there are still 27 days to polling day.
There will be some interesting lessons to learn. Firstly, get your shit together so at 3pm on nomination day have someone in each constituency make a plausible anonymous complaint about the behaviour of each of your opponent’s party nominees.
They either have to pull 600 odd candidates at the last minute or risk that some of the complaints are genuine and the shitstorm for ignoring the complaint.
It seems like incredibly old news now but worth noting that the debate had no effect on VI and the 2K Lie might actually have depressed the Tory score somewhat. Just caught up with Question Time and it was very bad indeed on the 2K Lie for the Tories. Any short term gain they might have got from 'landing' it on the night rapidly unravelled, and backfired.
Another big call @MoonRabbit got right. Kudos to her.
Yes. Fair play to her. An amazing turn around in form. She's made a few good calls lately.
Good greif, did you see the 2:21 story about the resignation? OK, so it's only Mr Gove's adviser, but the tone makes Mr Duguid look like an example from the Sermon on the Mount.
'Ian Acheson, who has advised the Communities Secretary on extremism, said the Prime Minister’s decision was a “colossal act of disrespect” to war veterans on what could be the last commemoration that they could attend.
In his resignation letter, seen by The Telegraph, Mr Acheson, a former prison governor, said: “It was an act of either colossal stupidity or cynical calculation.
“Either way, it revealed to me that while I still embrace a conservative philosophy, I am no longer willing to have it outsourced to a bunch of mendacious, incompetent and disreputable clowns. Country before party. Always.”'
Even Andrew Lloyd Weber is piling in.
Andrew Lloyd Webber has accused Rishi Sunak of an “astonishing and terrible lack of political judgment” after leaving D-Day commemorations early.
Lord Lloyd Webber, a lifelong Conservative supporter, composed a new piece of music, Lovingly Remembered, to mark the 80th anniversary of the landings.
Ok, I’m now warming to Rishi.
Yes, next up Tony Parsons and Lord Botham weighing in. Much more of this and I know where my cross is going.
Starmer is now not bad on the ratings, +16 so not that different to Cameron.
Sunak on -32
It makes you wonder what Sunaks going to do for the next 4 weeks. Starmer will be watching the football.
If Conservative candidates have anything to do with it, he'll go to live on a farm where he will be very happy and no we can't go to see him.
I mean, you can't dump your candidate for PM mid-campaign. You would look stupid. Especially having dumped his two predecessors. But there comes a point where that would be better than four weeks of this.
It seems like incredibly old news now but worth noting that the debate had no effect on VI and the 2K Lie might actually have depressed the Tory score somewhat. Just caught up with Question Time and it was very bad indeed on the 2K Lie for the Tories. Any short term gain they might have got from 'landing' it on the night rapidly unravelled, and backfired.
Another big call @MoonRabbit got right. Kudos to her.
It wan’t the only lie though was it, others got gasps and laughter from the audience. waiting lists are down, boat crossings are down, pensioners have never paid tax, Rwanda will be a fabulous deterrent. That’s even before the national service idea came up and Sunak said some stuff without appearing to believe it himself - that at least had some life in it until Rishi left it to die on a beach yesterday.
In the debate tonight, Rayner is going to complain that this election was their chance to get themselves across, and explain to the voters the detail and minutia of all their plans for government, but Sunak is deliberately drowning this out and hogging the narrative, with constant stories of his own ineptitude.
Senior Labour sources are upset the voters will go into election day still unclear what Labours actual plans are. They believed the focus of the campaign would be on them and their policies, and suspect Sunak deliberately pulled his Dunkirk Moment stunt to continue to lock Labour out from its deserved special moment in the spotlight.
What's your preview on the all-important Battle of the Big Hair?
Any inside track from the Beeb's hair and makeup team?
Red Angela for the win or Blue Penny to sail away with victory?
There will be plenty of other hair on the platform… well, from six of the debaters at least, so we should be fair and divide attention equally amongst it all?
What would they do in make up with Stephen from Scotland? Too glossy and it could reflect the lights, and prove a distraction advantage when he’s speaking? So a Matt finish on the old egg shell?
The Tory answers clearly laid out by Sunak, for his party to follow - waiting lists are down, boat crossings are down, pensioners have never paid tax, Rwanda will be a fabulous deterrent, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do most of it.
To what extent is everyone else lined up now with responses, soundbites, even cutting jokes to each of those ridiculous lies. So tonight really is all about Penny. How does she answer?
If I were Penny I’d just go rogue to be honest. What’s the worst that could happen?
It seems like incredibly old news now but worth noting that the debate had no effect on VI and the 2K Lie might actually have depressed the Tory score somewhat. Just caught up with Question Time and it was very bad indeed on the 2K Lie for the Tories. Any short term gain they might have got from 'landing' it on the night rapidly unravelled, and backfired.
Another big call @MoonRabbit got right. Kudos to her.
Yes. Fair play to her. An amazing turn around in form. She's made a few good calls lately.
Indeed. While I suspect the turnaround is inversely related to her late-night vodka consumption, no doubt she will share the secrets of her renaissance...
Starmer is now not bad on the ratings, +16 so not that different to Cameron.
Sunak on -32
It makes you wonder what Sunaks going to do for the next 4 weeks. Starmer will be watching the football.
If Conservative candidates have anything to do with it, he'll go to live on a farm where he will be very happy and no we can't go to see him.
I mean, you can't dump your candidate for PM mid-campaign. You would look stupid. Especially having dumped his two predecessors. But there comes a point where that would be better than four weeks of this.
I think we're there. Either Cameron or Bojo now would move the needle they couldnt really do any worse. It's unfortunate for Sunak but he's just struggling, the country has made up its mind it's not him and nothing will change it.
It’s all a bit final episode of Blackadder at the moment for the Tories.
It's reached the stage where if they only manage to lose half their seats at the election and end up with about 180 it'll be regarded as a good result.
Good? It would be a miracle. Sporting opened their book with them on 164/172; it is now 111/119. Even so I would sooner be a seller at that level, but you are backing big odds on so there isn't much mileage in it.
The Betfair seat bands probably reflect a more accurate evaluation of where we are at, and are pointing firmly in the direction of <100 seats and <20%.
Starmer is now not bad on the ratings, +16 so not that different to Cameron.
Sunak on -32
It makes you wonder what Sunaks going to do for the next 4 weeks. Starmer will be watching the football.
If Conservative candidates have anything to do with it, he'll go to live on a farm where he will be very happy and no we can't go to see him.
I mean, you can't dump your candidate for PM mid-campaign. You would look stupid. Especially having dumped his two predecessors. But there comes a point where that would be better than four weeks of this.
Based on yesterday's precedent, Richi could not appear at any campaign event until election day claiming "prior diary commitments"
It seems like incredibly old news now but worth noting that the debate had no effect on VI and the 2K Lie might actually have depressed the Tory score somewhat. Just caught up with Question Time and it was very bad indeed on the 2K Lie for the Tories. Any short term gain they might have got from 'landing' it on the night rapidly unravelled, and backfired.
Another big call @MoonRabbit got right. Kudos to her.
But, we were also told that the Labour vote was collapsing among tradesmen and midwives over private school fees. So multiple big calls in opposite directions, and one proves right.
Starmer is now not bad on the ratings, +16 so not that different to Cameron.
Sunak on -32
It makes you wonder what Sunaks going to do for the next 4 weeks. Starmer will be watching the football.
If Conservative candidates have anything to do with it, he'll go to live on a farm where he will be very happy and no we can't go to see him.
I mean, you can't dump your candidate for PM mid-campaign. You would look stupid. Especially having dumped his two predecessors. But there comes a point where that would be better than four weeks of this.
Based on yesterday's precedent, Richi could not appear at any campaign event until election day claiming "prior diary commitments"
It’s notable/stupid that they haven’t been getting people like Cameron, shit, I was going to list a load of current Tories who might have a bit of pull and present a good face to the public and I realised I could only think of Cameron. LOL. They’re fucked.
I really do think we should accept that if Jezza had not stood in 2019, the Tories would not have won.
Hmm.. not convinced. Though JC definitely gifted them a big majority. With 2019 being run under the shadow of Brexit, and Boris still in his prime, I suspect the Tories would have gotten a win unless Labour shifted to respecting the referendum result.
It seems like an era ago but to many voters, including me, the idea of actually getting a resolution to Brexit was incredibly attractive. I was exasperated by the political situation that had existed since 2017. Yes, dislike of Corbyn also influenced my vote, as it did in the election before, but I suspect I would still have voted Tory. I very much regret that vote now, but I have to be honest.
In the debate tonight, Rayner is going to complain that this election was their chance to get themselves across, and explain to the voters the detail and minutia of all their plans for government, but Sunak is deliberately drowning this out and hogging the narrative, with constant stories of his own ineptitude.
Senior Labour sources are upset the voters will go into election day still unclear what Labours actual plans are. They believed the focus of the campaign would be on them and their policies, and suspect Sunak deliberately pulled his Dunkirk Moment stunt to continue to lock Labour out from its deserved special moment in the spotlight.
What's your preview on the all-important Battle of the Big Hair?
Any inside track from the Beeb's hair and makeup team?
Red Angela for the win or Blue Penny to sail away with victory?
There will be plenty of other hair on the platform… well, from six of the debaters at least, so we should be fair and divide attention equally amongst it all?
What would they do in make up with Stephen from Scotland? Too glossy and it could reflect the lights, and prove a distraction advantage when he’s speaking? So a Matt finish on the old egg shell?
The Tory answers clearly laid out by Sunak, for his party to follow - waiting lists are down, boat crossings are down, pensioners have never paid tax, Rwanda will be a fabulous deterrent, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do most of it.
To what extent is everyone else lined up now with responses, soundbites, even cutting jokes to each of those ridiculous lies. So tonight really is all about Penny. How does she answer?
If I were Penny I’d just go rogue to be honest. What’s the worst that could happen?
I’m expecting this debate to be much better than the first one. Mordaunt, Rayner and Cooper are all good engaging debaters, and I expect both Ange and Penny will come across as more likeable than their leaders. Better format too.
If the Cons had any sense about them or were tactically astute they would somehow imply that Reform were being racist and criticism of his actions yesterday were questioning Rishi's Britishness and that this was typical of their attitude to a British Asian.
Why only today a noted PB poster said words to that effect.
Starmer, noticeably, hasn't attacked Rishi and I'm guessing this is one reason why.
If CCHQ put it out there that these attacks are racist then they dry up instantly.
In the debate tonight, Rayner is going to complain that this election was their chance to get themselves across, and explain to the voters the detail and minutia of all their plans for government, but Sunak is deliberately drowning this out and hogging the narrative, with constant stories of his own ineptitude.
Senior Labour sources are upset the voters will go into election day still unclear what Labours actual plans are. They believed the focus of the campaign would be on them and their policies, and suspect Sunak deliberately pulled his Dunkirk Moment stunt to continue to lock Labour out from its deserved special moment in the spotlight.
What's your preview on the all-important Battle of the Big Hair?
Any inside track from the Beeb's hair and makeup team?
Red Angela for the win or Blue Penny to sail away with victory?
There will be plenty of other hair on the platform… well, from six of the debaters at least, so we should be fair and divide attention equally amongst it all?
What would they do in make up with Stephen from Scotland? Too glossy and it could reflect the lights, and prove a distraction advantage when he’s speaking? So a Matt finish on the old egg shell?
The Tory answers clearly laid out by Sunak, for his party to follow - waiting lists are down, boat crossings are down, pensioners have never paid tax, Rwanda will be a fabulous deterrent, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do most of it.
To what extent is everyone else lined up now with responses, soundbites, even cutting jokes to each of those ridiculous lies. So tonight really is all about Penny. How does she answer?
If I were Penny I’d just go rogue to be honest. What’s the worst that could happen?
What? Just go up and chin Rayner? Yeah that might work.
I like the imagery, and it's a powerful statement but I think the 'Lest we forget' bit is too overtly political.
It is hideous, tasteless and disrespectful to veterans to use that wording. Typical fucking Labour. The Party that wanted to give us a Putin and Hamas apologist as our PM only 5 years ago.
I really do think we should accept that if Jezza had not stood in 2019, the Tories would not have won.
Hmm.. not convinced. Though JC definitely gifted them a big majority. With 2019 being run under the shadow of Brexit, and Boris still in his prime, I suspect the Tories would have gotten a win unless Labour shifted to respecting the referendum result.
It seems like an era ago but to many voters, including me, the idea of actually getting a resolution to Brexit was incredibly attractive. I was exasperated by the political situation that had existed since 2017. Yes, dislike of Corbyn also influenced my vote, as it did in the election before, but I suspect I would still have voted Tory. I very much regret that vote now, but I have to be honest.
If only Corbyn hadn’t been propped up by Sir Keir Starmer and there had been a good leader, free from association with Corbyn like, say, Sir Keir Starmer who could have challenged Corbyn earlier instead of continuing to push for Corbin to be PM then Labour could have won in 2019.
I like the imagery, and it's a powerful statement but I think the 'Lest we forget' bit is too overtly political.
It is hideous, tasteless and disrespectful to veterans to use that wording. Typical fucking Labour. The Party that wanted to give us a Putin and Hamas apologist as our PM only 5 years ago.
Except I don't think it's a Labour poster - I can find zero evidence of Labour being involved...
Comments
From our history it would be 1931.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cVnRdQ4UJbI
This stuff will become more and more mainstream and it will drive people on the left completely mad. But it is an inevitable reaction to the cultural dominance of the left, eventually the pendulum swings the other way.
*Ripping off a quote from Rupert Murdoch
https://brusselssignal.eu/2024/06/its-over-german-economic-policy-a-sheer-catastrophe-stock-exchange-chief-claims/
People have been struggling to understand several things about the D-Day affair - how Sunak could have been mad enough to leave early, why that time and date for recording the interview were suggested by the Tories, and why it was so far in advance of transmission.
It is conceivable that there was going to be an attempt by senior party figures to take control of the direction of the campaign, and that Sunak was desperate to pre-empt that by recording the interview before it could happen? Perhaps in the same way as in 1990 Thatcher rushed out and told the press she was fighting on, before her colleagues could stop her?
In all seriousness although I have money on it I imagine it’s not happening now or we would have heard some rumblings.
Are there any betting opportunities on how many selected candidates have to withdraw or have party support withdrawn before the election?
But you believe them, so be afraid.
I was very disappointed in his understanding of the markets, current affairs and he lacked any clear wide vision. Again I was a soft supporter - Farage curious if you will - before but not after.
Statement of persons nominated in one hour.
The right could win big in Europe – thanks to young people
“The radical right channels anti-establishment feelings,” he told the BBC. “They have a bit of a rebellious vibe - especially when it comes to their anti-woke agenda - and that appeals to young people.”
Fair play to the BBC for this article. People make very flawed assumptions about young people.
@Moreincommon_
- LAB: 46 (-)
- CON: 25 (-2)
- REF: 11 (+1)
- LD: 9 (+1)
- GRN: 6 (+1)
(5-7 June)
Starmer now has 18-point lead over Sunak on who would be best PM
https://x.com/AdamBienkov/status/1799093963921699210
Disaster.
It's be raining bankers in the atrium.
I think it’s quite plausible it could cause a 5 point hit, give or take.
Would love if a maths boffin could clear this up for me - I may sell my ‘REFUK to beat CON vote share’ right now if so, rather than waiting for after tonight’s debate.
What would they do in make up with Stephen from Scotland? Too glossy and it could reflect the lights, and prove a distraction advantage when he’s speaking? So a Matt finish on the old egg shell?
Sunak on -32
The polls this weekend could make for interesting viewing.
To tell you the truth, I've forgotten myself in all this excitement.
(Channelling my own "not me too" fantasy there perhaps.)
Another big call @MoonRabbit got right. Kudos to her.
Of course there’s still some time for that challenger to emerge, but time is running out, and it’s increasingly likely that challenge cannot be brought by Rishi Sunak…
To what extent is everyone else lined up now with responses, soundbites, even cutting jokes to each of those ridiculous lies. So tonight really is all about Penny. How does she answer?
Official Labour Party poster.
With YouGov changing their methodology, I am using the numbers provided by YouGov on their old methodology so that I have a consistent and comparable set of data. Similarly I am not incorporating other polling companies, of which there are many.
This average does not try and predict the result, rather than provide a comparable tracked data.
This weeks figures
C 21.8% (-0.9)
L 45.0% (-0.3)
LD 9.5% (+0.3)
SNP 2.5% (-0.2)
G 5.0% (-0.5)
RUK 13.3% (+1.5)
Pre D-Daygate of course.
Conservatives still above the lowest of 21.3% during the Truss epoch.
They either have to pull 600 odd candidates at the last minute or risk that some of the complaints are genuine and the shitstorm for ignoring the complaint.
I mean, you can't dump your candidate for PM mid-campaign. You would look stupid. Especially having dumped his two predecessors. But there comes a point where that would be better than four weeks of this.
Unbelievable.
But it's also politics.
I look forward to Labour being treated similarly.
The Betfair seat bands probably reflect a more accurate evaluation of where we are at, and are pointing firmly in the direction of <100 seats and <20%.
It seems like an era ago but to many voters, including me, the idea of actually getting a resolution to Brexit was incredibly attractive. I was exasperated by the political situation that had existed since 2017. Yes, dislike of Corbyn also influenced my vote, as it did in the election before, but I suspect I would still have voted Tory. I very much regret that vote now, but I have to be honest.
Why only today a noted PB poster said words to that effect.
Starmer, noticeably, hasn't attacked Rishi and I'm guessing this is one reason why.
If CCHQ put it out there that these attacks are racist then they dry up instantly.