If Reform end up having 100 fewer candidates than the Tories, can they still realistically beat them in vote share?
Would love if a maths boffin could clear this up for me - I may sell my ‘REFUK to beat CON vote share’ right now if so, rather than waiting for after tonight’s debate.
I think REF can still do it even with 100 fewer candidates provided they are a decent few points ahead of the Tories overall, is that right?
I don't fancy Penny Mourdant job this evening. It bad enough having 6 others gang up on you in a debate over your record in government, now what does she do about Sunak decision?
Call off the debate and replace the questions with a bout of mud wrestling between Pens and Ange.
(Channelling my own "not me too" fantasy there perhaps.)
It seems like incredibly old news now but worth noting that the debate had no effect on VI and the 2K Lie might actually have depressed the Tory score somewhat. Just caught up with Question Time and it was very bad indeed on the 2K Lie for the Tories. Any short term gain they might have got from 'landing' it on the night rapidly unravelled, and backfired.
Another big call @MoonRabbit got right. Kudos to her.
I will say this about Starmer. It isn’t just good luck that gets someone to a point where there is simply no immediate focal point of opposition. He has managed to make Labour either so attractive to so many people, or at least people are apathetic/unperturbed by the thought of a Labour government, that he has hoovered up 40+% of the vote with no clear opponent. Normally FPTP can be relied upon to give one opposition party a leg up, as the best placed to beat the first party.
Of course there’s still some time for that challenger to emerge, but time is running out, and it’s increasingly likely that challenge cannot be brought by Rishi Sunak…
In the debate tonight, Rayner is going to complain that this election was their chance to get themselves across, and explain to the voters the detail and minutia of all their plans for government, but Sunak is deliberately drowning this out and hogging the narrative, with constant stories of his own ineptitude.
Senior Labour sources are upset the voters will go into election day still unclear what Labours actual plans are. They believed the focus of the campaign would be on them and their policies, and suspect Sunak deliberately pulled his Dunkirk Moment stunt to continue to lock Labour out from its deserved special moment in the spotlight.
What's your preview on the all-important Battle of the Big Hair?
Any inside track from the Beeb's hair and makeup team?
Red Angela for the win or Blue Penny to sail away with victory?
There will be plenty of other hair on the platform… well, from six of the debaters at least, so we should be fair and divide attention equally amongst it all?
What would they do in make up with Stephen from Scotland? Too glossy and it could reflect the lights, and prove a distraction advantage when he’s speaking? So a Matt finish on the old egg shell?
The Tory answers clearly laid out by Sunak, for his party to follow - waiting lists are down, boat crossings are down, pensioners have never paid tax, Rwanda will be a fabulous deterrent, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do most of it.
To what extent is everyone else lined up now with responses, soundbites, even cutting jokes to each of those ridiculous lies. So tonight really is all about Penny. How does she answer?
With YouGov changing their methodology, I am using the numbers provided by YouGov on their old methodology so that I have a consistent and comparable set of data. Similarly I am not incorporating other polling companies, of which there are many.
This average does not try and predict the result, rather than provide a comparable tracked data.
This weeks figures C 21.8% (-0.9) L 45.0% (-0.3) LD 9.5% (+0.3) SNP 2.5% (-0.2) G 5.0% (-0.5) RUK 13.3% (+1.5)
Pre D-Daygate of course.
Conservatives still above the lowest of 21.3% during the Truss epoch.
Seems there’s some last minute shenanigans in Hemel Hempstead as the recently selected Tory candidate resigns/is dumped at the last minute. When the story is written of this election it might not fit in one volume.
My Christmas list is going to be wall-to-wall memoirs and behind the scenes stories of this election because there are so many aspects that are just inexplicable and there are still 27 days to polling day.
Is this election actually happening or am I in some strange fever dream? What the hell is going to happen next?
Seems there’s some last minute shenanigans in Hemel Hempstead as the recently selected Tory candidate resigns/is dumped at the last minute. When the story is written of this election it might not fit in one volume.
My Christmas list is going to be wall-to-wall memoirs and behind the scenes stories of this election because there are so many aspects that are just inexplicable and there are still 27 days to polling day.
There will be some interesting lessons to learn. Firstly, get your shit together so at 3pm on nomination day have someone in each constituency make a plausible anonymous complaint about the behaviour of each of your opponent’s party nominees.
They either have to pull 600 odd candidates at the last minute or risk that some of the complaints are genuine and the shitstorm for ignoring the complaint.
It seems like incredibly old news now but worth noting that the debate had no effect on VI and the 2K Lie might actually have depressed the Tory score somewhat. Just caught up with Question Time and it was very bad indeed on the 2K Lie for the Tories. Any short term gain they might have got from 'landing' it on the night rapidly unravelled, and backfired.
Another big call @MoonRabbit got right. Kudos to her.
Yes. Fair play to her. An amazing turn around in form. She's made a few good calls lately.
Good greif, did you see the 2:21 story about the resignation? OK, so it's only Mr Gove's adviser, but the tone makes Mr Duguid look like an example from the Sermon on the Mount.
'Ian Acheson, who has advised the Communities Secretary on extremism, said the Prime Minister’s decision was a “colossal act of disrespect” to war veterans on what could be the last commemoration that they could attend.
In his resignation letter, seen by The Telegraph, Mr Acheson, a former prison governor, said: “It was an act of either colossal stupidity or cynical calculation.
“Either way, it revealed to me that while I still embrace a conservative philosophy, I am no longer willing to have it outsourced to a bunch of mendacious, incompetent and disreputable clowns. Country before party. Always.”'
Even Andrew Lloyd Weber is piling in.
Andrew Lloyd Webber has accused Rishi Sunak of an “astonishing and terrible lack of political judgment” after leaving D-Day commemorations early.
Lord Lloyd Webber, a lifelong Conservative supporter, composed a new piece of music, Lovingly Remembered, to mark the 80th anniversary of the landings.
Ok, I’m now warming to Rishi.
Yes, next up Tony Parsons and Lord Botham weighing in. Much more of this and I know where my cross is going.
Starmer is now not bad on the ratings, +16 so not that different to Cameron.
Sunak on -32
It makes you wonder what Sunaks going to do for the next 4 weeks. Starmer will be watching the football.
If Conservative candidates have anything to do with it, he'll go to live on a farm where he will be very happy and no we can't go to see him.
I mean, you can't dump your candidate for PM mid-campaign. You would look stupid. Especially having dumped his two predecessors. But there comes a point where that would be better than four weeks of this.
It seems like incredibly old news now but worth noting that the debate had no effect on VI and the 2K Lie might actually have depressed the Tory score somewhat. Just caught up with Question Time and it was very bad indeed on the 2K Lie for the Tories. Any short term gain they might have got from 'landing' it on the night rapidly unravelled, and backfired.
Another big call @MoonRabbit got right. Kudos to her.
It wan’t the only lie though was it, others got gasps and laughter from the audience. waiting lists are down, boat crossings are down, pensioners have never paid tax, Rwanda will be a fabulous deterrent. That’s even before the national service idea came up and Sunak said some stuff without appearing to believe it himself - that at least had some life in it until Rishi left it to die on a beach yesterday.
In the debate tonight, Rayner is going to complain that this election was their chance to get themselves across, and explain to the voters the detail and minutia of all their plans for government, but Sunak is deliberately drowning this out and hogging the narrative, with constant stories of his own ineptitude.
Senior Labour sources are upset the voters will go into election day still unclear what Labours actual plans are. They believed the focus of the campaign would be on them and their policies, and suspect Sunak deliberately pulled his Dunkirk Moment stunt to continue to lock Labour out from its deserved special moment in the spotlight.
What's your preview on the all-important Battle of the Big Hair?
Any inside track from the Beeb's hair and makeup team?
Red Angela for the win or Blue Penny to sail away with victory?
There will be plenty of other hair on the platform… well, from six of the debaters at least, so we should be fair and divide attention equally amongst it all?
What would they do in make up with Stephen from Scotland? Too glossy and it could reflect the lights, and prove a distraction advantage when he’s speaking? So a Matt finish on the old egg shell?
The Tory answers clearly laid out by Sunak, for his party to follow - waiting lists are down, boat crossings are down, pensioners have never paid tax, Rwanda will be a fabulous deterrent, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do most of it.
To what extent is everyone else lined up now with responses, soundbites, even cutting jokes to each of those ridiculous lies. So tonight really is all about Penny. How does she answer?
If I were Penny I’d just go rogue to be honest. What’s the worst that could happen?
It seems like incredibly old news now but worth noting that the debate had no effect on VI and the 2K Lie might actually have depressed the Tory score somewhat. Just caught up with Question Time and it was very bad indeed on the 2K Lie for the Tories. Any short term gain they might have got from 'landing' it on the night rapidly unravelled, and backfired.
Another big call @MoonRabbit got right. Kudos to her.
Yes. Fair play to her. An amazing turn around in form. She's made a few good calls lately.
Indeed. While I suspect the turnaround is inversely related to her late-night vodka consumption, no doubt she will share the secrets of her renaissance...
Starmer is now not bad on the ratings, +16 so not that different to Cameron.
Sunak on -32
It makes you wonder what Sunaks going to do for the next 4 weeks. Starmer will be watching the football.
If Conservative candidates have anything to do with it, he'll go to live on a farm where he will be very happy and no we can't go to see him.
I mean, you can't dump your candidate for PM mid-campaign. You would look stupid. Especially having dumped his two predecessors. But there comes a point where that would be better than four weeks of this.
I think we're there. Either Cameron or Bojo now would move the needle they couldnt really do any worse. It's unfortunate for Sunak but he's just struggling, the country has made up its mind it's not him and nothing will change it.
It’s all a bit final episode of Blackadder at the moment for the Tories.
It's reached the stage where if they only manage to lose half their seats at the election and end up with about 180 it'll be regarded as a good result.
Good? It would be a miracle. Sporting opened their book with them on 164/172; it is now 111/119. Even so I would sooner be a seller at that level, but you are backing big odds on so there isn't much mileage in it.
The Betfair seat bands probably reflect a more accurate evaluation of where we are at, and are pointing firmly in the direction of <100 seats and <20%.
Starmer is now not bad on the ratings, +16 so not that different to Cameron.
Sunak on -32
It makes you wonder what Sunaks going to do for the next 4 weeks. Starmer will be watching the football.
If Conservative candidates have anything to do with it, he'll go to live on a farm where he will be very happy and no we can't go to see him.
I mean, you can't dump your candidate for PM mid-campaign. You would look stupid. Especially having dumped his two predecessors. But there comes a point where that would be better than four weeks of this.
Based on yesterday's precedent, Richi could not appear at any campaign event until election day claiming "prior diary commitments"
It seems like incredibly old news now but worth noting that the debate had no effect on VI and the 2K Lie might actually have depressed the Tory score somewhat. Just caught up with Question Time and it was very bad indeed on the 2K Lie for the Tories. Any short term gain they might have got from 'landing' it on the night rapidly unravelled, and backfired.
Another big call @MoonRabbit got right. Kudos to her.
But, we were also told that the Labour vote was collapsing among tradesmen and midwives over private school fees. So multiple big calls in opposite directions, and one proves right.
Starmer is now not bad on the ratings, +16 so not that different to Cameron.
Sunak on -32
It makes you wonder what Sunaks going to do for the next 4 weeks. Starmer will be watching the football.
If Conservative candidates have anything to do with it, he'll go to live on a farm where he will be very happy and no we can't go to see him.
I mean, you can't dump your candidate for PM mid-campaign. You would look stupid. Especially having dumped his two predecessors. But there comes a point where that would be better than four weeks of this.
Based on yesterday's precedent, Richi could not appear at any campaign event until election day claiming "prior diary commitments"
It’s notable/stupid that they haven’t been getting people like Cameron, shit, I was going to list a load of current Tories who might have a bit of pull and present a good face to the public and I realised I could only think of Cameron. LOL. They’re fucked.
I really do think we should accept that if Jezza had not stood in 2019, the Tories would not have won.
Hmm.. not convinced. Though JC definitely gifted them a big majority. With 2019 being run under the shadow of Brexit, and Boris still in his prime, I suspect the Tories would have gotten a win unless Labour shifted to respecting the referendum result.
It seems like an era ago but to many voters, including me, the idea of actually getting a resolution to Brexit was incredibly attractive. I was exasperated by the political situation that had existed since 2017. Yes, dislike of Corbyn also influenced my vote, as it did in the election before, but I suspect I would still have voted Tory. I very much regret that vote now, but I have to be honest.
In the debate tonight, Rayner is going to complain that this election was their chance to get themselves across, and explain to the voters the detail and minutia of all their plans for government, but Sunak is deliberately drowning this out and hogging the narrative, with constant stories of his own ineptitude.
Senior Labour sources are upset the voters will go into election day still unclear what Labours actual plans are. They believed the focus of the campaign would be on them and their policies, and suspect Sunak deliberately pulled his Dunkirk Moment stunt to continue to lock Labour out from its deserved special moment in the spotlight.
What's your preview on the all-important Battle of the Big Hair?
Any inside track from the Beeb's hair and makeup team?
Red Angela for the win or Blue Penny to sail away with victory?
There will be plenty of other hair on the platform… well, from six of the debaters at least, so we should be fair and divide attention equally amongst it all?
What would they do in make up with Stephen from Scotland? Too glossy and it could reflect the lights, and prove a distraction advantage when he’s speaking? So a Matt finish on the old egg shell?
The Tory answers clearly laid out by Sunak, for his party to follow - waiting lists are down, boat crossings are down, pensioners have never paid tax, Rwanda will be a fabulous deterrent, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do most of it.
To what extent is everyone else lined up now with responses, soundbites, even cutting jokes to each of those ridiculous lies. So tonight really is all about Penny. How does she answer?
If I were Penny I’d just go rogue to be honest. What’s the worst that could happen?
I’m expecting this debate to be much better than the first one. Mordaunt, Rayner and Cooper are all good engaging debaters, and I expect both Ange and Penny will come across as more likeable than their leaders. Better format too.
If the Cons had any sense about them or were tactically astute they would somehow imply that Reform were being racist and criticism of his actions yesterday were questioning Rishi's Britishness and that this was typical of their attitude to a British Asian.
Why only today a noted PB poster said words to that effect.
Starmer, noticeably, hasn't attacked Rishi and I'm guessing this is one reason why.
If CCHQ put it out there that these attacks are racist then they dry up instantly.
In the debate tonight, Rayner is going to complain that this election was their chance to get themselves across, and explain to the voters the detail and minutia of all their plans for government, but Sunak is deliberately drowning this out and hogging the narrative, with constant stories of his own ineptitude.
Senior Labour sources are upset the voters will go into election day still unclear what Labours actual plans are. They believed the focus of the campaign would be on them and their policies, and suspect Sunak deliberately pulled his Dunkirk Moment stunt to continue to lock Labour out from its deserved special moment in the spotlight.
What's your preview on the all-important Battle of the Big Hair?
Any inside track from the Beeb's hair and makeup team?
Red Angela for the win or Blue Penny to sail away with victory?
There will be plenty of other hair on the platform… well, from six of the debaters at least, so we should be fair and divide attention equally amongst it all?
What would they do in make up with Stephen from Scotland? Too glossy and it could reflect the lights, and prove a distraction advantage when he’s speaking? So a Matt finish on the old egg shell?
The Tory answers clearly laid out by Sunak, for his party to follow - waiting lists are down, boat crossings are down, pensioners have never paid tax, Rwanda will be a fabulous deterrent, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do most of it.
To what extent is everyone else lined up now with responses, soundbites, even cutting jokes to each of those ridiculous lies. So tonight really is all about Penny. How does she answer?
If I were Penny I’d just go rogue to be honest. What’s the worst that could happen?
What? Just go up and chin Rayner? Yeah that might work.
I like the imagery, and it's a powerful statement but I think the 'Lest we forget' bit is too overtly political.
It is hideous, tasteless and disrespectful to veterans to use that wording. Typical fucking Labour. The Party that wanted to give us a Putin and Hamas apologist as our PM only 5 years ago.
I really do think we should accept that if Jezza had not stood in 2019, the Tories would not have won.
Hmm.. not convinced. Though JC definitely gifted them a big majority. With 2019 being run under the shadow of Brexit, and Boris still in his prime, I suspect the Tories would have gotten a win unless Labour shifted to respecting the referendum result.
It seems like an era ago but to many voters, including me, the idea of actually getting a resolution to Brexit was incredibly attractive. I was exasperated by the political situation that had existed since 2017. Yes, dislike of Corbyn also influenced my vote, as it did in the election before, but I suspect I would still have voted Tory. I very much regret that vote now, but I have to be honest.
If only Corbyn hadn’t been propped up by Sir Keir Starmer and there had been a good leader, free from association with Corbyn like, say, Sir Keir Starmer who could have challenged Corbyn earlier instead of continuing to push for Corbin to be PM then Labour could have won in 2019.
I like the imagery, and it's a powerful statement but I think the 'Lest we forget' bit is too overtly political.
It is hideous, tasteless and disrespectful to veterans to use that wording. Typical fucking Labour. The Party that wanted to give us a Putin and Hamas apologist as our PM only 5 years ago.
Except I don't think it's a Labour poster - I can find zero evidence of Labour being involved...
"What have Brexit and Voldemort got in common ? People find them awful but their name must never be spoken" Die Zeit↙️
"Brexit has become taboo, which, given the problems the country faces, is grotesque" Handelsblatt (🇩🇪 FT) ↘️
Brave for a country which has just downgraded all its economic forecasts.
You do realise that those pesky furriners with their stinky ways have things called “newspapers” that have views independent of their governments don’t you? Or do you think we are too important for others to make comment on us?
Given I was Geschatsfueher in Germany for five years, speak fluent German, read the German press every day and am currently working in Germany. I suspect I have a better feel for the place than you. But dont let that stop you.
Your German spelling certainly seems to be on a par with your English spelling.
Ever the middle managers call. Senior management dont worry about it.
The word you were trying to articulate is Geschäftsführer, or Geschaeftsfuehrer if you don't have access to umlauts.
I prefer Geschatsfueher ; it's sounds like the honorary position that would be occupied by Trump as "Baron von Schitzinpants", per Michael Cohen.
It seems like incredibly old news now but worth noting that the debate had no effect on VI and the 2K Lie might actually have depressed the Tory score somewhat. Just caught up with Question Time and it was very bad indeed on the 2K Lie for the Tories. Any short term gain they might have got from 'landing' it on the night rapidly unravelled, and backfired.
Another big call @MoonRabbit got right. Kudos to her.
But, we were also told that the Labour vote was collapsing among tradesmen and midwives over private school fees. So multiple big calls in opposite directions, and one proves right.
It’s like the people who constantly forecast recessions and economic crashes. They revel in what they get right and forget all those they don’t.
With YouGov changing their methodology, I am using the numbers provided by YouGov on their old methodology so that I have a consistent and comparable set of data. Similarly I am not incorporating other polling companies, of which there are many.
This average does not try and predict the result, rather than provide a comparable tracked data.
This weeks figures C 21.8% (-0.9) L 45.0% (-0.3) LD 9.5% (+0.3) SNP 2.5% (-0.2) G 5.0% (-0.5) RUK 13.3% (+1.5)
Pre D-Daygate of course.
Conservatives still above the lowest of 21.3% during the Truss epoch.
So, the Tories probably reached their most recent polling average peak around Easter 2023, and have been in a remarkably steady decline since then?
I really do think we should accept that if Jezza had not stood in 2019, the Tories would not have won.
I have long believed that to be the case. It is also true that if Corbyn had not been leader of Labour in 2016 the referendum would have probably gone the other way.
Starmer is now not bad on the ratings, +16 so not that different to Cameron.
Sunak on -32
It makes you wonder what Sunaks going to do for the next 4 weeks. Starmer will be watching the football.
If Conservative candidates have anything to do with it, he'll go to live on a farm where he will be very happy and no we can't go to see him.
I mean, you can't dump your candidate for PM mid-campaign. You would look stupid. Especially having dumped his two predecessors. But there comes a point where that would be better than four weeks of this.
I think we're there. Either Cameron or Bojo now would move the needle they couldnt really do any worse. It's unfortunate for Sunak but he's just struggling, the country has made up its mind it's not him and nothing will change it.
How does Cameron do that as a Lord, and Johnson? Are you taking the piss?
Farage could reverse take over the Tories, I suppose.
It seems like incredibly old news now but worth noting that the debate had no effect on VI and the 2K Lie might actually have depressed the Tory score somewhat. Just caught up with Question Time and it was very bad indeed on the 2K Lie for the Tories. Any short term gain they might have got from 'landing' it on the night rapidly unravelled, and backfired.
Another big call @MoonRabbit got right. Kudos to her.
But, we were also told that the Labour vote was collapsing among tradesmen and midwives over private school fees. So multiple big calls in opposite directions, and one proves right.
Yes, but that was a fair while ago (in political campaign terms)
Starmer is now not bad on the ratings, +16 so not that different to Cameron.
Sunak on -32
It makes you wonder what Sunaks going to do for the next 4 weeks. Starmer will be watching the football.
If Conservative candidates have anything to do with it, he'll go to live on a farm where he will be very happy and no we can't go to see him.
I mean, you can't dump your candidate for PM mid-campaign. You would look stupid. Especially having dumped his two predecessors. But there comes a point where that would be better than four weeks of this.
In 1972, the dumping of the Democratic nominee for VP, US Sen, Tom Eagleton due to his past, undisclosed shock treatments was the final nail in the coffin for hopes that POTUS nominee George McGovern could beat Richard Nixon in November.
That summer, while on summer vacation out West, visited with the grandmother of a friend, who was in her 80s, shortly after the 1972 Democratic Convention; like me she was an avid Democrat. We naturally discussed the convention, and the ticket.
I expressed cautious optimism about McGovern's picking Eagleton as his VP running mate. "I'm not so sure," she replied, in her very think Swedish accent (she'd come to US when she was 12-years old, but learned her English in a timber camp that was about 90% Scandinavian in population). "There's something about him I just don't trust" she explained.
What is the most recent example in the Western World of a party having as high a majority as this, in an actual democracy?
Hard to say because most systems used in the West are PR and not directly comparable.
From our history it would be 1931.
Yes, the National Government picked up around 90% of seats (mainly Baldwin's Conservatives who hoovered up over 75% of seats) so that's more than the 80% of seats for Labour projected by that poll (although it's not going to happen).
Pompidou also picked up 75% of seats in 1968 in France.
As you say, electoral systems make it unlikely in many democracies.
In the debate tonight, Rayner is going to complain that this election was their chance to get themselves across, and explain to the voters the detail and minutia of all their plans for government, but Sunak is deliberately drowning this out and hogging the narrative, with constant stories of his own ineptitude.
Senior Labour sources are upset the voters will go into election day still unclear what Labours actual plans are. They believed the focus of the campaign would be on them and their policies, and suspect Sunak deliberately pulled his Dunkirk Moment stunt to continue to lock Labour out from its deserved special moment in the spotlight.
What's your preview on the all-important Battle of the Big Hair?
Any inside track from the Beeb's hair and makeup team?
Red Angela for the win or Blue Penny to sail away with victory?
There will be plenty of other hair on the platform… well, from six of the debaters at least, so we should be fair and divide attention equally amongst it all?
What would they do in make up with Stephen from Scotland? Too glossy and it could reflect the lights, and prove a distraction advantage when he’s speaking? So a Matt finish on the old egg shell?
The Tory answers clearly laid out by Sunak, for his party to follow - waiting lists are down, boat crossings are down, pensioners have never paid tax, Rwanda will be a fabulous deterrent, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do most of it.
To what extent is everyone else lined up now with responses, soundbites, even cutting jokes to each of those ridiculous lies. So tonight really is all about Penny. How does she answer?
If I were Penny I’d just go rogue to be honest. What’s the worst that could happen?
I’m expecting this debate to be much better than the first one. Mordaunt, Rayner and Cooper are all good engaging debaters, and I expect both Ange and Penny will come across as more likeable than their leaders. Better format too.
Indeed. I'm taping it. But like most of Joe Public, I'll be watching the football on the other channel.
In the debate tonight, Rayner is going to complain that this election was their chance to get themselves across, and explain to the voters the detail and minutia of all their plans for government, but Sunak is deliberately drowning this out and hogging the narrative, with constant stories of his own ineptitude.
Senior Labour sources are upset the voters will go into election day still unclear what Labours actual plans are. They believed the focus of the campaign would be on them and their policies, and suspect Sunak deliberately pulled his Dunkirk Moment stunt to continue to lock Labour out from its deserved special moment in the spotlight.
What's your preview on the all-important Battle of the Big Hair?
Any inside track from the Beeb's hair and makeup team?
Red Angela for the win or Blue Penny to sail away with victory?
There will be plenty of other hair on the platform… well, from six of the debaters at least, so we should be fair and divide attention equally amongst it all?
What would they do in make up with Stephen from Scotland? Too glossy and it could reflect the lights, and prove a distraction advantage when he’s speaking? So a Matt finish on the old egg shell?
The Tory answers clearly laid out by Sunak, for his party to follow - waiting lists are down, boat crossings are down, pensioners have never paid tax, Rwanda will be a fabulous deterrent, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do most of it.
To what extent is everyone else lined up now with responses, soundbites, even cutting jokes to each of those ridiculous lies. So tonight really is all about Penny. How does she answer?
If I were Penny I’d just go rogue to be honest. What’s the worst that could happen?
What? Just go up and chin Rayner? Yeah that might work.
Penny needs to focus on holding her seat, where she is behind but not doomed according to the YouGov MRP. Try and crowbar in a few references to Portsmouth!
I really do think we should accept that if Jezza had not stood in 2019, the Tories would not have won.
Who do you think would have beaten Johnson in the context of 2019? Not Starmer.
Johnson won because he was against Corbyn. Period. Everyone (except a few deluded dopes) knew he was a buffoon who should not be anywhere near power, but he was simply slightly less odious than the revolting alternative.
Starmer is now not bad on the ratings, +16 so not that different to Cameron.
Sunak on -32
It makes you wonder what Sunaks going to do for the next 4 weeks. Starmer will be watching the football.
If Conservative candidates have anything to do with it, he'll go to live on a farm where he will be very happy and no we can't go to see him.
I mean, you can't dump your candidate for PM mid-campaign. You would look stupid. Especially having dumped his two predecessors. But there comes a point where that would be better than four weeks of this.
I think we're there. Either Cameron or Bojo now would move the needle they couldnt really do any worse. It's unfortunate for Sunak but he's just struggling, the country has made up its mind it's not him and nothing will change it.
How does Cameron do that as a Lord, and Johnson? Are you taking the piss?
Farage could reverse take over the Tories, I suppose.
Why should I take the piss ? The Tory campaign is dead in the water, they can either try to shore up the blue wall or the red wall. At the levels their trading they have not much left to lose.
Cameron would get the @TSE vote and all criticisms would be modded away
Starmer is now not bad on the ratings, +16 so not that different to Cameron.
Sunak on -32
It makes you wonder what Sunaks going to do for the next 4 weeks. Starmer will be watching the football.
If Conservative candidates have anything to do with it, he'll go to live on a farm where he will be very happy and no we can't go to see him.
I mean, you can't dump your candidate for PM mid-campaign. You would look stupid. Especially having dumped his two predecessors. But there comes a point where that would be better than four weeks of this.
I think we're there. Either Cameron or Bojo now would move the needle they couldnt really do any worse. It's unfortunate for Sunak but he's just struggling, the country has made up its mind it's not him and nothing will change it.
How does Cameron do that as a Lord, and Johnson? Are you taking the piss?
Farage could reverse take over the Tories, I suppose.
He did that ages ago which is why the Tories are where they are.
What is the most recent example in the Western World of a party having as high a majority as this, in an actual democracy?
I'd guess it's pretty unlikely in proportional representation systems or the like. FPTP, on the other hand, tends to give quasi-stable two-party equilibria that, when they do flip, lead to dramatic changes of fortune.
Three weeks before the 2010 Hungarian election, Fidesz were polling as high as 64 and 67%. In the end they acheived 53% and 68% of the seats. That was on a an AMS system IIRC.
Is there any chance that Sunak left early because Big Z said he only wanted to talk to Starmer?
Who knows? It's as good an explanation as any.
The big question I asked this morning – and nobody has been able to answer is: why did Rishi leave? What was the reason for it? An ITN chat seems a ludicrously trivial reason, makes no sense on any level.
If the Cons had any sense about them or were tactically astute they would somehow imply that Reform were being racist and criticism of his actions yesterday were questioning Rishi's Britishness and that this was typical of their attitude to a British Asian.
Why only today a noted PB poster said words to that effect.
Starmer, noticeably, hasn't attacked Rishi and I'm guessing this is one reason why.
If CCHQ put it out there that these attacks are racist then they dry up instantly.
Not sure 'playing the race card' would be a very effective strategy with the actual voters making a decision between Reform or Sunak, as opposed to the electorate as a whole. The fundamental problem is Sunak is bang to rights on this so saying criticism is racist is only going to make it worse.
That doesn't look like an official Labour Party poster, where's the print in the bottom left corner saying who authorised it, which is normally on official election posters?
I'm told Reform Party were expecting to field candidates in 80-90% of seats, which is about 520 to 590, not quite the full slate Richard Tice promised. That will make lot harder to beat Conservatives on popular vote
Regarding that poster supposedly from Labour, with no branding and no imprint. Really? . I’m not even convinced it’s not been photoshopped over a different poster image. I think there are grounds to be pretty dubious that it’s real. I think we shouldn’t allow ourselves to lean into our biases. I don’t think it’s real.
Regarding that poster supposedly from Labour, with no branding and no imprint. Really? . I’m not even convinced it’s not been photoshopped over a different poster image. I think there are grounds to be pretty dubious that it’s real. I think we shouldn’t allow ourselves to lean into our biases. I don’t think it’s real.
It's rather clever, but also somewhat harsh and OTT. The fact that the image is low-res and looks hacked together makes me wonder if you could be right.
Regarding that poster supposedly from Labour, with no branding and no imprint. Really? . I’m not even convinced it’s not been photoshopped over a different poster image. I think there are grounds to be pretty dubious that it’s real. I think we shouldn’t allow ourselves to lean into our biases. I don’t think it’s real.
Well, simply getting it made and put up in that space of time would be tricky enough.
It seems like incredibly old news now but worth noting that the debate had no effect on VI and the 2K Lie might actually have depressed the Tory score somewhat. Just caught up with Question Time and it was very bad indeed on the 2K Lie for the Tories. Any short term gain they might have got from 'landing' it on the night rapidly unravelled, and backfired.
Another big call @MoonRabbit got right. Kudos to her.
Yes. Fair play to her. An amazing turn around in form. She's made a few good calls lately.
Especially since re: the Great Debate MR was herself caught up in the hope if not glory of RS's performance.
Her subsequent analysis was more cogent. In addition to her own intellect, am guessing that views of her father (who she frequently cites) may have had something to do with this?
That was certainly the case for me with my own father. He was (and still is) NOT responsible for my fool opinions, but he did (and still does) remain a major factor in my (so-called) thinking.
Feeling slightly smug that I tipped Labour 500+ seats at 25/1 on Betfair Exchange a week ago (currently trading at 8/1 over there). Stuck twenty quid on it intending it to be a trading bet, reckon I will keep it now for the lolz.
Fwiw, I don't think Labour will reach 500 seats but I do see them coming close. 450+ feels nailed on, unless anything changes.
In the debate tonight, Rayner is going to complain that this election was their chance to get themselves across, and explain to the voters the detail and minutia of all their plans for government, but Sunak is deliberately drowning this out and hogging the narrative, with constant stories of his own ineptitude.
Senior Labour sources are upset the voters will go into election day still unclear what Labours actual plans are. They believed the focus of the campaign would be on them and their policies, and suspect Sunak deliberately pulled his Dunkirk Moment stunt to continue to lock Labour out from its deserved special moment in the spotlight.
What's your preview on the all-important Battle of the Big Hair?
Any inside track from the Beeb's hair and makeup team?
Red Angela for the win or Blue Penny to sail away with victory?
There will be plenty of other hair on the platform… well, from six of the debaters at least, so we should be fair and divide attention equally amongst it all?
What would they do in make up with Stephen from Scotland? Too glossy and it could reflect the lights, and prove a distraction advantage when he’s speaking? So a Matt finish on the old egg shell?
The Tory answers clearly laid out by Sunak, for his party to follow - waiting lists are down, boat crossings are down, pensioners have never paid tax, Rwanda will be a fabulous deterrent, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do most of it.
To what extent is everyone else lined up now with responses, soundbites, even cutting jokes to each of those ridiculous lies. So tonight really is all about Penny. How does she answer?
If I were Penny I’d just go rogue to be honest. What’s the worst that could happen?
What? Just go up and chin Rayner? Yeah that might work.
Penny needs to focus on holding her seat, where she is behind but not doomed according to the YouGov MRP. Try and crowbar in a few references to Portsmouth!
It's not as if D Day isn't important in South East Hampshire.
Portsmouth, Fareham, that sort of place.
(Gosport as well, but who cares about Caroline Dinenage?)
Is there any chance that Sunak left early because Big Z said he only wanted to talk to Starmer?
This seems very unlikely in practice. He met Cameron only the other day and, whilst I am sure foreign governments are working on a presumption of Conservative defeat, there's no benefit in taking the risk of a deliberate snub.
Regarding that poster supposedly from Labour, with no branding and no imprint. Really? . I’m not even convinced it’s not been photoshopped over a different poster image. I think there are grounds to be pretty dubious that it’s real. I think we shouldn’t allow ourselves to lean into our biases. I don’t think it’s real.
Their other social media ‘posters’ don’t have an imprint, at least not on their Twitter posts from the official @UKLabour account.
But this particular ‘poster’ doesn’t appear on that account at all.
I really do think we should accept that if Jezza had not stood in 2019, the Tories would not have won.
I do not agree. 2019 was not JUST Corbyn. There was a very strong mood to get Brexit over the line. The public were sick of politicians failing to honour the vote.
Is there any chance that Sunak left early because Big Z said he only wanted to talk to Starmer?
This seems very unlikely in practice. He met Cameron only the other day and, whilst I am sure foreign governments are working on a presumption of Conservative defeat, there's no benefit in taking the risk of a deliberate snub.
I think also, on a human level, he’s had many meetings with Sunak and they seemed to get on well so he’s got no reason to snub someone who kept up the support and they didn’t have any personal animosity or coolness.
Regarding that poster supposedly from Labour, with no branding and no imprint. Really? . I’m not even convinced it’s not been photoshopped over a different poster image. I think there are grounds to be pretty dubious that it’s real. I think we shouldn’t allow ourselves to lean into our biases. I don’t think it’s real.
Their other social media ‘posters’ don’t have an imprint, at least not on their Twitter posts from the official @UKLabour account.
But this particular ‘poster’ doesn’t appear on that account at all.
Yeah it’s why I’m dubious. I think it’s just some clicktivist doing it and then confirmation bias juicing it up.
I really do think we should accept that if Jezza had not stood in 2019, the Tories would not have won.
I do not agree. 2019 was not JUST Corbyn. There was a very strong mood to get Brexit over the line. The public were sick of politicians failing to honour the vote.
Comments
(Channelling my own "not me too" fantasy there perhaps.)
Another big call @MoonRabbit got right. Kudos to her.
Of course there’s still some time for that challenger to emerge, but time is running out, and it’s increasingly likely that challenge cannot be brought by Rishi Sunak…
To what extent is everyone else lined up now with responses, soundbites, even cutting jokes to each of those ridiculous lies. So tonight really is all about Penny. How does she answer?
Official Labour Party poster.
With YouGov changing their methodology, I am using the numbers provided by YouGov on their old methodology so that I have a consistent and comparable set of data. Similarly I am not incorporating other polling companies, of which there are many.
This average does not try and predict the result, rather than provide a comparable tracked data.
This weeks figures
C 21.8% (-0.9)
L 45.0% (-0.3)
LD 9.5% (+0.3)
SNP 2.5% (-0.2)
G 5.0% (-0.5)
RUK 13.3% (+1.5)
Pre D-Daygate of course.
Conservatives still above the lowest of 21.3% during the Truss epoch.
They either have to pull 600 odd candidates at the last minute or risk that some of the complaints are genuine and the shitstorm for ignoring the complaint.
I mean, you can't dump your candidate for PM mid-campaign. You would look stupid. Especially having dumped his two predecessors. But there comes a point where that would be better than four weeks of this.
Unbelievable.
But it's also politics.
I look forward to Labour being treated similarly.
The Betfair seat bands probably reflect a more accurate evaluation of where we are at, and are pointing firmly in the direction of <100 seats and <20%.
It seems like an era ago but to many voters, including me, the idea of actually getting a resolution to Brexit was incredibly attractive. I was exasperated by the political situation that had existed since 2017. Yes, dislike of Corbyn also influenced my vote, as it did in the election before, but I suspect I would still have voted Tory. I very much regret that vote now, but I have to be honest.
Why only today a noted PB poster said words to that effect.
Starmer, noticeably, hasn't attacked Rishi and I'm guessing this is one reason why.
If CCHQ put it out there that these attacks are racist then they dry up instantly.
Any sign of D-Day on the doorstep?
We were discussing crossover before all this!
Farage could reverse take over the Tories, I suppose.
https://x.com/tomhfh/status/1799091605476909272?s=61
https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1799088247320035595
That summer, while on summer vacation out West, visited with the grandmother of a friend, who was in her 80s, shortly after the 1972 Democratic Convention; like me she was an avid Democrat. We naturally discussed the convention, and the ticket.
I expressed cautious optimism about McGovern's picking Eagleton as his VP running mate. "I'm not so sure," she replied, in her very think Swedish accent (she'd come to US when she was 12-years old, but learned her English in a timber camp that was about 90% Scandinavian in population). "There's something about him I just don't trust" she explained.
Pompidou also picked up 75% of seats in 1968 in France.
As you say, electoral systems make it unlikely in many democracies.
I wonder if we will here similar story in South Devon.
Last night's Wellswood (Torbay) council by-election result:
CON: 42.3% (-21.1)
LDEM: 41.9% (+41.9)
REF: 8.5% (+8.5)
LAB: 5.3% (-19.6)
GRN: 1.5% (-10.1)
WP: 0.5% (+0.5)
Valid votes cast: 2,217
Conservative HOLD.
https://x.com/cjsnowdon/status/1799085361219735965?s=61
Cameron would get the @TSE vote and all criticisms would be modded away
Fascinating stuff - if you wanted a list of which Con MPs have most to worry about from Sunak's D-Day disaster, here it is...
https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1799101919220346915
Labour 500 seats or more 6/1
Thinking about this from a few months ago on Sunak's failure to visit Germany
Feels like his man-in-a-hurry thing plus delegating diplomacy to Cameron seeded yesterday's disastrous error
https://x.com/estwebber/status/1799101660637380946
@MirrorPolitics
Tory election candidate quits after sharing inappropriate photos from club nights for kids
https://x.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1799100568318931308
Doubt that it’s an actual Lab poster though. Where’d you see it?
The big question I asked this morning – and nobody has been able to answer is: why did Rishi leave? What was the reason for it? An ITN chat seems a ludicrously trivial reason, makes no sense on any level.
I'm told Reform Party were expecting to field candidates in 80-90% of seats, which is about 520 to 590, not quite the full slate Richard Tice promised. That will make lot harder to beat Conservatives on popular vote
The Lost Tories
Top Gone
and
Coming To America
Her subsequent analysis was more cogent. In addition to her own intellect, am guessing that views of her father (who she frequently cites) may have had something to do with this?
That was certainly the case for me with my own father. He was (and still is) NOT responsible for my fool opinions, but he did (and still does) remain a major factor in my (so-called) thinking.
Fwiw, I don't think Labour will reach 500 seats but I do see them coming close. 450+ feels nailed on, unless anything changes.
Portsmouth, Fareham, that sort of place.
(Gosport as well, but who cares about Caroline Dinenage?)
Fire up the Huey.
Edit: Don't be too precious the poster wrote itself.
But this particular ‘poster’ doesn’t appear on that account at all.
https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1799102778385781207?s=46
That only narrows it down to 600 or so