Starmers response to the ECHR question was another open goal missed .
He should have made it clear that the only European countries not in the ECHR are Russia and Belarus and do people want the UK sharing that company.
He needs to do better in the final leaders debate .
We are going to get full on anti ECHR from Farage in this campaign
...and from Rishi. Two peas, one pod.
We will run out of things to leave at some point.
We could leave the Commonwealth - after all, it's full of foreigners?
We should remove voting rights in national elections from non-citizens.
So disenfranchise Commonwealth and Irish people resident here. Why?
Because the only people who should get a vote are those who have committed to the future of the country. If a Commonwealth or Irish citizen wants to take part in the decision making process for the future of our country then they should commit to UK citizenship.
I would also remove the vote from ex-pats who have permanently settled in other countries.
Brilliant idea. Wouldn’t stoke any fires in the Six Counties at all. “You can vote if you commit to U.K. citizenship”. Will go down a storm in Derry and West Belfast that will.
Northern Ireland is always the exception to everything. And those who comtinualy bring it up (looking at you Doug) as a block to change when it is an exception are simply devoid of any other meaningful arguments.
Anyway we could solve that particular issue by reunifying the island of Ireland. Its perfectly valid aspiration and one I share.
Richard, you are an intelligent man, but you occasionally decend to ad hominem utter bullshit like me “keep bringing it up” in re Ireland. Barty proposed disenfranchising Irish citizens, I didn’t,. And, if I did, so what? A lot of Brit Nats would rather sweep it’s messy contradictions under the table. The imperial mindset of “we” (presumably the U.K.) could solve that issue by reunifying Ireland, which implies no consultation with either of the jurisdictions there, speaks volumes.
It wasn't me that proposed it, it was @williamglenn actually, but I agreed with him as did others like @Richard_Tyndall , so its funny that I'm the one you're hating.
I wouldn't disenfranchise Irish voters in Northern Ireland under any circumstances and as long as English voters in Ireland can vote in their elections I have no problem with a reciprocal agreement for Irish electors in our elections to vote. That's reasonable and reciprocal.
The Commonwealth rule is not.
An Australian living in the UK can vote in British elections. A Brit living in Australia has not been allowed to register to vote there since 1984.
That anachronism should be abolished.
I agree with you hear. It’s an imperial hangover. Get rid.
Europe shows the future. It will be fought between left and populist right. Britain will get a successful populist right party in the end, it’s up to the Tories whether it is them or a party that replaces them
I wonder if Sunak is going try something loopy, like matching Farage's "zero immigration" rhetoric.
This would lead to a 1940s Albania scenario, economically ,ofcourse, so they wouldn't really mean it. It would shift the dial on this further to the right, though.
Hes going to go full tonto, expect some crazy shit. EHRC referendum, zero net immigration pledge, IHT scrapped minimum
Europe shows the future. It will be fought between left and populist right. Britain will get a successful populist right party in the end, it’s up to the Tories whether it is them or a party that replaces them
Ummm, the populist right is Europe's past.
We fought wars as a result
I think Leon's point is that it increasingly seems to be Europe's future as well.
So, the Tories did manage to get everybody talking about tax.
Every news outlet has done a forensic analysis of how big a lie it was.
Awesome work, lads. Trebles all round...
Going to be a bit of a problem for them when Labour does put up taxes isn't it.
"We have seen the Government accounts and Mary, mother Jesus they are infinitely worse than we thought possible. We don't want to, but we have to raise taxes. We are calling them Tory taxe rises".
Governments receive blame much quicker than thanks.
As soon as people are impacted they'll blame whoever is in charge.
Irrespective of who is at fault.
It depends what the voter is looking for. "Man, the Tories left education and the NHS in a mess, do you want us to put up taxes? How about a referendum?"
Europe shows the future. It will be fought between left and populist right. Britain will get a successful populist right party in the end, it’s up to the Tories whether it is them or a party that replaces them
Ummm, the populist right is Europe's past.
We fought wars as a result
I think Leon's point is that it increasingly seems to be Europe's future as well.
It’s not even a debate to be had. It is a fact. Look at who is in power and coming to power across Europe
Europe shows the future. It will be fought between left and populist right. Britain will get a successful populist right party in the end, it’s up to the Tories whether it is them or a party that replaces them
Ummm, the populist right is Europe's past.
We fought wars as a result
I think Leon's point is that it increasingly seems to be Europe's future as well.
Yes, and I disagree with him that we should rush to embrace it.
The public thinks the Conservatives are more likely to raise taxes than Labour, according to fresh polling shared with Sky News.
Well, then, the public aren't thinking straight.
Time for a new electorate, eh?
The electorate doesn't care, it's just angry at the Conservatives and that's blinding it to logic.
Politicians should remember and again not a party political point as it applies to all of them. We are governed by consent. They should be looking in horror at the figures reported when the populace are asked about their trust in politicians, the police, the media, etc and realise that they are rapidly running out of consent
Yup. A lot of the smart arsery on here will turn to tears if Labour sinks as fast as I think they will after the election, in these circumstances.
It will be tears because it may not be the Tories that replace them and it certainly won’t be the smug, posh, in it for the rich, Cameroon Tories.
The country has been angry, to some extent, since about 2009 or earlier. Brexit was one demonstration, then there was Corbyn, and then Boris, but the underlying frustration wasn’t properly vented by any of those.
I really do fear for what is going to be unleashed when the public turn to someone else after Starmer fails.
Someone needed to give them some of what they wanted.
You are wishing for something rather than using any kind of evidential analysis of its likelihood.
The Labour Party coming to power will do so with the good wishes of the British public after so much which has gone wrong.
As it has been written by other people they will perform with competency. There will be no unravels. With the kind of majority now in forecast they will win two elections minimum and may be they will win three or four or even five elections in a row.
Your Conservative Party need to ask themselves what kind of a party we should be looking like between 2035 and 2040 because they will no longer have a prayer of winning before then.
Ever heard of "events" ?
Yep - but I simply don't see them occurring. The reality is a suspect every 'event' in the next 3 years can be pinned on the incompetency of the previous Tory government...
well maybe but nobody foresaw covid. And as we can see Sunak throwing money at the elctorate earned him no credit. Labour have no particular competence edge - they use the same civil servants, their politicians went to the same universities and the sign up to they same big government policies.
Starmer has planted no seeds on what he is about so he is more likely to disappoint a lot of people fast, being all things to all men doesnt work.
Have you even considered the possibility that Starmer does what he says he's going to do?
Which is to bring in an era of calmer, more measured, governance than we've seen over the last eight years. Rather than seeing governance as a constant political campaign (Johnson, Truss, Sunak - but not May), use power benignly to heal division and make decisions for the common and national good. That's actually his schtick, and it's just possible that he'll be good at it.
I think most people would welcome a PM who sought to temper the febrile, chaotic nature of government that we've seen since the Brexit vote, where the governing party decides policy purely on the basis of campaigning rhetoric (Rwanda being a particularly stark example, but there's countless others). Making politics less interesting and divisive could be one of Starmer's worthy aims, and his soberness may help to achieve that.
Europe shows the future. It will be fought between left and populist right. Britain will get a successful populist right party in the end, it’s up to the Tories whether it is them or a party that replaces them
Ummm, the populist right is Europe's past.
We fought wars as a result
I think Leon's point is that it increasingly seems to be Europe's future as well.
Yes, and I disagree with him that we should rush to embrace it.
It’s rushing to embrace YOU is more the point
It is inevitable. And it is the EU that you adore which leads the way, which is highly amusing and poignant
Jeremy Hunt speaks up and it's like a breath of fresh air The evidence of Britain is that elections are always won from the centre ground and I think in a two-party system that will always be the case. We’ll always be a broad church, and I think that’s a good thing.
There it is. The Conservative Party is still in there somewhere. They missed a trick in not making him leader. Too late now, just another of history's "what if"s.
Sounds very much like a man who's own seat is in danger from the Lib Dems. He'd be whistling a rather different tune if he was a Red Wall MP.
Jeremy Hunt speaks up and it's like a breath of fresh air The evidence of Britain is that elections are always won from the centre ground and I think in a two-party system that will always be the case. We’ll always be a broad church, and I think that’s a good thing.
There it is. The Conservative Party is still in there somewhere. They missed a trick in not making him leader. Too late now, just another of history's "what if"s.
Unfortunately, he's spent the last two years soiling himself to promote right wingers like Rishi.
Starmers response to the ECHR question was another open goal missed .
He should have made it clear that the only European countries not in the ECHR are Russia and Belarus and do people want the UK sharing that company.
He needs to do better in the final leaders debate .
We are going to get full on anti ECHR from Farage in this campaign
...and from Rishi. Two peas, one pod.
We will run out of things to leave at some point.
We could leave the Commonwealth - after all, it's full of foreigners?
We should remove voting rights in national elections from non-citizens.
So disenfranchise Commonwealth and Irish people resident here. Why?
Because the only people who should get a vote are those who have committed to the future of the country. If a Commonwealth or Irish citizen wants to take part in the decision making process for the future of our country then they should commit to UK citizenship.
I would also remove the vote from ex-pats who have permanently settled in other countries.
Brilliant idea. Wouldn’t stoke any fires in the Six Counties at all. “You can vote if you commit to U.K. citizenship”. Will go down a storm in Derry and West Belfast that will.
We can keep the exception for Irish citizens but non-reciprocal voting rights for everyone in the Commonwealth is an anachronism.
No taxation without representation!
You can try that argument in the US, but you won't get far.
Commonwealth citizens living in the UK pay tax to HMRC.
So do French, German and US citizens. They don't get the vote so why should Jamaicans or Indians?
I was amazed at how many of the UK-based Indian IT staff we had working for the bank had vote in the EU Ref. Every one who told me how they voted, voted Leave, including one who thought his vote wouldn't have counted because he was in a pro-Remain constituency.
The public thinks the Conservatives are more likely to raise taxes than Labour, according to fresh polling shared with Sky News.
Well, then, the public aren't thinking straight.
Time for a new electorate, eh?
The electorate doesn't care, it's just angry at the Conservatives and that's blinding it to logic.
Politicians should remember and again not a party political point as it applies to all of them. We are governed by consent. They should be looking in horror at the figures reported when the populace are asked about their trust in politicians, the police, the media, etc and realise that they are rapidly running out of consent
Yup. A lot of the smart arsery on here will turn to tears if Labour sinks as fast as I think they will after the election, in these circumstances.
It will be tears because it may not be the Tories that replace them and it certainly won’t be the smug, posh, in it for the rich, Cameroon Tories.
The country has been angry, to some extent, since about 2009 or earlier. Brexit was one demonstration, then there was Corbyn, and then Boris, but the underlying frustration wasn’t properly vented by any of those.
I really do fear for what is going to be unleashed when the public turn to someone else after Starmer fails.
Someone needed to give them some of what they wanted.
You are wishing for something rather than using any kind of evidential analysis of its likelihood.
The Labour Party coming to power will do so with the good wishes of the British public after so much which has gone wrong.
As it has been written by other people they will perform with competency. There will be no unravels. With the kind of majority now in forecast they will win two elections minimum and may be they will win three or four or even five elections in a row.
Your Conservative Party need to ask themselves what kind of a party we should be looking like between 2035 and 2040 because they will no longer have a prayer of winning before then.
Ever heard of "events" ?
Yep - but I simply don't see them occurring. The reality is a suspect every 'event' in the next 3 years can be pinned on the incompetency of the previous Tory government...
well maybe but nobody foresaw covid. And as we can see Sunak throwing money at the elctorate earned him no credit. Labour have no particular competence edge - they use the same civil servants, their politicians went to the same universities and the sign up to they same big government policies.
Starmer has planted no seeds on what he is about so he is more likely to disappoint a lot of people fast, being all things to all men doesnt work.
Have you even considered the possibility that Starmer does what he says he's going to do?
Which is to bring in an era of calmer, more measured, governance than we've seen over the last eight years. Rather than seeing governance as a constant political campaign (Johnson, Truss, Sunak - but not May), use power benignly to heal division and make decisions for the common and national good. That's actually his schtick, and it's just possible that he'll be good at it.
I think most people would welcome a PM who sought to temper the febrile, chaotic nature of government that we've seen since the Brexit vote, where the governing party decides policy purely on the basis of campaigning rhetoric (Rwanda being a particularly stark example, but there's countless others). Making politics less interesting and divisive could be one of Starmer's worthy aims, and his soberness may help to achieve that.
Labour have now admitted they will aim to process asylum seekers offshore. Ie they will do Rwanda but call it something ELSE
So, the Tories did manage to get everybody talking about tax.
Every news outlet has done a forensic analysis of how big a lie it was.
Awesome work, lads. Trebles all round...
Going to be a bit of a problem for them when Labour does put up taxes isn't it.
The Labour government won’t need to put up taxes, they can dine out on Rishi Sunak’s pre programmed fiscal drag and stealth taxes through the next Parliament.
Ever heard the claim “UK overall tax burden now highest since 2nd world war”? Well, not on its standard rates and top rates is it?
Any growth (which they are actually gambling on like Truss plan was) is a spaff around pre re-election bonus.
Europe shows the future. It will be fought between left and populist right. Britain will get a successful populist right party in the end, it’s up to the Tories whether it is them or a party that replaces them
Ummm, the populist right is Europe's past.
We fought wars as a result
I think Leon's point is that it increasingly seems to be Europe's future as well.
Yes, and I disagree with him that we should rush to embrace it.
It’s rushing to embrace YOU is more the point
It is inevitable.
No.
Your pitch is "Look at those mad bastards over there; we should be like them"
Starmer can't win, can he? Would you use private health care?:
Yes: Tories on here and elsewhere jump up and down with charges of gross hypocrisy. No: Tories on here and elsewhere say he's an evil man who would let his family die for the sake of his principles.
In reality, of course, if any member of his family had a life-threatening illness or accident then the NHS would leap to their rescue before the private sector could give him a price.
I disagree with this. If he sent (had sent - I think they're grown up?) his kids to private school, then I think he could be labelled a hypocrite. Healthcare is a bit different and, I think, he knew he'd be in the minority by saying no to that question and felt the need to justify it.
Indeed.
Private schooling is very much a choice.
Private healthcare could be more of a necessity.
Strangely, I'm thinking of cancelling my private healthcare policy because I don't see it as value. It's thousands a year in premium alone plus a heavy tax penalty for a benefit-in-kind, also in the thousands.
I can save it and, if I'm seriously ill, my company has a generous sick pay policy. But, if I need treatment, it's better for me and the economy for me to be treated quickly so I can get back to work and paying taxes as quickly as possible. Whilst I do that it also expands resources and money going into the healthcare sector at the same time.
So private is a win-win.
I considered taking out private health insurance in the aftermath of covid knowing that waiting lists would increase.
Foxy gave the advice that it was more cost effective not to but to pay if and when necessary.
So I'm currently three years of fees better off.
My employer has private healthcare as an benefit and I've always opted out and taken the money.
I've definitely saved enough for a new knee or two if necessary.
By the time you are more likely to need it frequently the premiums are too expensive and there's another provider of last resort anyway.
Starmers response to the ECHR question was another open goal missed .
He should have made it clear that the only European countries not in the ECHR are Russia and Belarus and do people want the UK sharing that company.
He needs to do better in the final leaders debate .
We are going to get full on anti ECHR from Farage in this campaign
...and from Rishi. Two peas, one pod.
We will run out of things to leave at some point.
We could leave the Commonwealth - after all, it's full of foreigners?
We should remove voting rights in national elections from non-citizens.
So disenfranchise Commonwealth and Irish people resident here. Why?
Because the only people who should get a vote are those who have committed to the future of the country. If a Commonwealth or Irish citizen wants to take part in the decision making process for the future of our country then they should commit to UK citizenship.
I would also remove the vote from ex-pats who have permanently settled in other countries.
And what about people who choose to have dual nationality?
If one of the dual is ours and they live here, they should have the vote.
The fact they also have another one is irrelevant.
IIRC, the legal fiction behind multiple nationality is that when you are in a country which you are a citizen of, all other citizenships are considered not to exist.
When I had dual US/UK, it was explained that this went to the point that my US passport wasn’t a valid document in the U.K. and the reverses. In the U.K. I was considered solely a U.K. citizen by the U.K. government. When in the US, solely a US citizen by the US government.
And there are some countries like India that (for some reason) don't permit dual citizenship. Now, I personally have something called an OCI (Overseas Citizen of India), but it's basically a glorified "indefinite leave"-type Visa. I've only ever had a UK passport.
Calling @Tissue_Price - his departure leaves the local Tories with no candidate. I hear that the Tories nationally really do have a problem and are trying to pressgang people.
Jeremy Hunt speaks up and it's like a breath of fresh air The evidence of Britain is that elections are always won from the centre ground and I think in a two-party system that will always be the case. We’ll always be a broad church, and I think that’s a good thing.
There it is. The Conservative Party is still in there somewhere. They missed a trick in not making him leader. Too late now, just another of history's "what if"s.
Jeremy Hunt is another rich pathetic spineless centrist public school rentier dork. He’d be like Sunak without the agreeable common touch and interestingly metrosexual clothing
He’d be like Cameron without all the sound self assessment and measured humility. Boris without the gravitas and probity. The Tories are doomed beyond doomed if they keep plugging away at this centrist shit that no one wants
Europe shows the future. It will be fought between left and populist right. Britain will get a successful populist right party in the end, it’s up to the Tories whether it is them or a party that replaces them
Well, the boring centrist SKS is on course to win a spanking majority, so it just be your views that are the outer fringe.
It’s a bit early to say. Starmer has already staked out a position against the liberalism of Boris Johnson on immigration. His election will in practical terms mean more nationalism.
Jeremy Hunt speaks up and it's like a breath of fresh air The evidence of Britain is that elections are always won from the centre ground and I think in a two-party system that will always be the case. We’ll always be a broad church, and I think that’s a good thing.
There it is. The Conservative Party is still in there somewhere. They missed a trick in not making him leader. Too late now, just another of history's "what if"s.
Jeremy Hunt is another rich pathetic spineless centrist public school rentier dork. He’d be like Sunak without the agreeable common touch and interestingly metrosexual clothing
He’d be like Cameron without all the sound self assessment and measured humility. Boris without the gravitas and probity. The Tories are doomed beyond doomed if they keep plugging away at this centrist shit that no one wants
Europe shows the future. It will be fought between left and populist right. Britain will get a successful populist right party in the end, it’s up to the Tories whether it is them or a party that replaces them
Well, the boring centrist SKS is on course to win a spanking majority, so it just be your views that are the outer fringe.
He is. And - believe it or not - I wish him well. He will be my PM - and MP
Almost every scrap of evidence suggests he will disappoint, but who knows. Let’s see
Europe shows the future. It will be fought between left and populist right. Britain will get a successful populist right party in the end, it’s up to the Tories whether it is them or a party that replaces them
Ummm, the populist right is Europe's past.
We fought wars as a result
I think Leon's point is that it increasingly seems to be Europe's future as well.
Yes, and I disagree with him that we should rush to embrace it.
It’s rushing to embrace YOU is more the point
It is inevitable.
No.
Your pitch is "Look at those mad bastards over there; we should be like them"
No. No, we shouldn't.
We've already had our flirtation with right-wing populism = Brexitism.
Europe shows the future. It will be fought between left and populist right. Britain will get a successful populist right party in the end, it’s up to the Tories whether it is them or a party that replaces them
Ummm, the populist right is Europe's past.
We fought wars as a result
I think Leon's point is that it increasingly seems to be Europe's future as well.
Yes, and I disagree with him that we should rush to embrace it.
It’s rushing to embrace YOU is more the point
It is inevitable.
No.
Your pitch is "Look at those mad bastards over there; we should be like them"
No. No, we shouldn't.
Before going on about mad bastards the first thing you ought to do is ask why it is happening. Head remains in sand.
Jeremy Hunt speaks up and it's like a breath of fresh air The evidence of Britain is that elections are always won from the centre ground and I think in a two-party system that will always be the case. We’ll always be a broad church, and I think that’s a good thing.
There it is. The Conservative Party is still in there somewhere. They missed a trick in not making him leader. Too late now, just another of history's "what if"s.
Jeremy Hunt is another rich pathetic spineless centrist public school rentier dork. He’d be like Sunak without the agreeable common touch and interestingly metrosexual clothing
He’d be like Cameron without all the sound self assessment and measured humility. Boris without the gravitas and probity. The Tories are doomed beyond doomed if they keep plugging away at this centrist shit that no one wants
Europe shows the future. It will be fought between left and populist right. Britain will get a successful populist right party in the end, it’s up to the Tories whether it is them or a party that replaces them
Well, the boring centrist SKS is on course to win a spanking majority, so it just be your views that are the outer fringe.
He is. And - believe it or not - I wish him well. He will be my PM - and MP
Almost every scrap of evidence suggests he will disappoint, but who knows. Let’s see
Please don't say he might surprise on the upside, he's going to face enough challenges without adding the Curse of Leon to his burden.
Calling @Tissue_Price - his departure leaves the local Tories with no candidate. I hear that the Tories nationally really do have a problem and are trying to pressgang people.
Calling @Tissue_Price - his departure leaves the local Tories with no candidate. I hear that the Tories nationally really do have a problem and are trying to pressgang people.
Calling @Tissue_Price - his departure leaves the local Tories with no candidate. I hear that the Tories nationally really do have a problem and are trying to pressgang people.
The public thinks the Conservatives are more likely to raise taxes than Labour, according to fresh polling shared with Sky News.
Well, then, the public aren't thinking straight.
Time for a new electorate, eh?
The electorate doesn't care, it's just angry at the Conservatives and that's blinding it to logic.
Politicians should remember and again not a party political point as it applies to all of them. We are governed by consent. They should be looking in horror at the figures reported when the populace are asked about their trust in politicians, the police, the media, etc and realise that they are rapidly running out of consent
Yup. A lot of the smart arsery on here will turn to tears if Labour sinks as fast as I think they will after the election, in these circumstances.
It will be tears because it may not be the Tories that replace them and it certainly won’t be the smug, posh, in it for the rich, Cameroon Tories.
The country has been angry, to some extent, since about 2009 or earlier. Brexit was one demonstration, then there was Corbyn, and then Boris, but the underlying frustration wasn’t properly vented by any of those.
I really do fear for what is going to be unleashed when the public turn to someone else after Starmer fails.
Someone needed to give them some of what they wanted.
You are wishing for something rather than using any kind of evidential analysis of its likelihood.
The Labour Party coming to power will do so with the good wishes of the British public after so much which has gone wrong.
As it has been written by other people they will perform with competency. There will be no unravels. With the kind of majority now in forecast they will win two elections minimum and may be they will win three or four or even five elections in a row.
Your Conservative Party need to ask themselves what kind of a party we should be looking like between 2035 and 2040 because they will no longer have a prayer of winning before then.
Ever heard of "events" ?
Yep - but I simply don't see them occurring. The reality is a suspect every 'event' in the next 3 years can be pinned on the incompetency of the previous Tory government...
well maybe but nobody foresaw covid. And as we can see Sunak throwing money at the elctorate earned him no credit. Labour have no particular competence edge - they use the same civil servants, their politicians went to the same universities and the sign up to they same big government policies.
Starmer has planted no seeds on what he is about so he is more likely to disappoint a lot of people fast, being all things to all men doesnt work.
Have you even considered the possibility that Starmer does what he says he's going to do?
Which is to bring in an era of calmer, more measured, governance than we've seen over the last eight years. Rather than seeing governance as a constant political campaign (Johnson, Truss, Sunak - but not May), use power benignly to heal division and make decisions for the common and national good. That's actually his schtick, and it's just possible that he'll be good at it.
I think most people would welcome a PM who sought to temper the febrile, chaotic nature of government that we've seen since the Brexit vote, where the governing party decides policy purely on the basis of campaigning rhetoric (Rwanda being a particularly stark example, but there's countless others). Making politics less interesting and divisive could be one of Starmer's worthy aims, and his soberness may help to achieve that.
Labour have now admitted they will aim to process asylum seekers offshore. Ie they will do Rwanda but call it something ELSE
That’s because it is something else. The difference with the Rwanda plan, why it breaks all our treaties and leaves us in same place as Putin, is if the claim is successful, the asylum won’t be in UK. That is quite a crucial difference isn’t it.
Do you actually think it is a deterrent that smashes the gangs? Or merely a “they can’t stay in Britain if successful” hardline soundbite to win reform voters back?
I can stop the boats single handily so I don’t know why this government failed year after year. I would shoot holes in all the boats whilst they are still in the dunes. No boats no crossings. Tough on boats, tough on the logistics of the boats.
So, the Tories did manage to get everybody talking about tax.
Every news outlet has done a forensic analysis of how big a lie it was.
Awesome work, lads. Trebles all round...
People misremember how 2016 net/gross £350M a week trick actually played out. Bus was going round for weeks before any furore began. A great many people voted on the basis it was actually true, anda huge sun of money in the scheme of things. Some people actually took years to realise the truth behind it.
But yesterday’s 2K lie had no time at all to do its business, before it changed today into a different understanding in the publics mind. In less than 24hrs this ploy collapsed and has became universally known as dubious claim. It’s already in the minds of those fleeting observer of politics – in other words the vast majority of people – who may only hear about the story in the loosest terms, as the row about another Tory lie. Even the Clangers have already heard its dubious from the tin chicken, who by some miracle can get Chris Masons podcast in her left ear.
All the news today about it being a lie, is already far more powerful than anything the Tories can now do to convince it isn’t. It’s now the very opposite of the 2016 bus. What it is advertising when people see it now is same old Tories always lying.
It’s going to have a negative impact on the Conservative campaign unless they can back away from it.
Nah, everyone knows Labour will need to put up taxes and aren't saying where.
Every trick like this has a kernel of truth in it.
Starmers response to the ECHR question was another open goal missed .
He should have made it clear that the only European countries not in the ECHR are Russia and Belarus and do people want the UK sharing that company.
He needs to do better in the final leaders debate .
We are going to get full on anti ECHR from Farage in this campaign
...and from Rishi. Two peas, one pod.
We will run out of things to leave at some point.
We could leave the Commonwealth - after all, it's full of foreigners?
We should remove voting rights in national elections from non-citizens.
So disenfranchise Commonwealth and Irish people resident here. Why?
Because the only people who should get a vote are those who have committed to the future of the country. If a Commonwealth or Irish citizen wants to take part in the decision making process for the future of our country then they should commit to UK citizenship.
I would also remove the vote from ex-pats who have permanently settled in other countries.
Brilliant idea. Wouldn’t stoke any fires in the Six Counties at all. “You can vote if you commit to U.K. citizenship”. Will go down a storm in Derry and West Belfast that will.
We can keep the exception for Irish citizens but non-reciprocal voting rights for everyone in the Commonwealth is an anachronism.
No taxation without representation!
You can try that argument in the US, but you won't get far.
Commonwealth citizens living in the UK pay tax to HMRC.
So do French, German and US citizens. They don't get the vote so why should Jamaicans or Indians?
I was amazed at how many of the UK-based Indian IT staff we had working for the bank had vote in the EU Ref. Every one who told me how they voted, voted Leave, including one who thought his vote wouldn't have counted because he was in a pro-Remain constituency.
In spite of the fact they voted Leave I would still contend they should not have had that vote unless they were British citizens. I also believe that ex-pats settled in other countries should not have had the vote.
Europe shows the future. It will be fought between left and populist right. Britain will get a successful populist right party in the end, it’s up to the Tories whether it is them or a party that replaces them
Ummm, the populist right is Europe's past.
We fought wars as a result
I think Leon's point is that it increasingly seems to be Europe's future as well.
Hmmm, but Leon's the type who sees a leaf move in the breeze and thinks it's a tiger.
I’m actually the English type with such sang froid I think “Oh, a portable diesel generator has exploded” when actually it’s a piece of Russian missile descending on my road
Jeremy Hunt speaks up and it's like a breath of fresh air The evidence of Britain is that elections are always won from the centre ground and I think in a two-party system that will always be the case. We’ll always be a broad church, and I think that’s a good thing.
There it is. The Conservative Party is still in there somewhere. They missed a trick in not making him leader. Too late now, just another of history's "what if"s.
Sounds very much like a man who's own seat is in danger from the Lib Dems. He'd be whistling a rather different tune if he was a Red Wall MP.
Except this is who Hunt has been for a long time. Of course he's also looking to shore things up. That doesn't make his words insincere.
And he's always been in an affluent, Lib Dem facing seat.
To lead a party, you need an approach that works as well as it can overall across the UK. It might be that this is it. But he's got a pretty strong vested interest, and these are words crafted for Guardian reading liberals - not the approach his party has actually taken whilst he's been it's second most important figure, nor one that is calculated to hold Red Wall seats.
What you're saying is YOU like the approach. But neither you nor I are the UK.
It has been little commented on by media*, but in recent years the Tory Party has hollowed out. Used to be mass membership in millions with Con clubs and so on but now something like 150K. An v aging demographic as well.
* there was a long article in Newstateman a while ago but otherwise barely mentioned by the press iirc.
The public thinks the Conservatives are more likely to raise taxes than Labour, according to fresh polling shared with Sky News.
Well, then, the public aren't thinking straight.
Time for a new electorate, eh?
The electorate doesn't care, it's just angry at the Conservatives and that's blinding it to logic.
Politicians should remember and again not a party political point as it applies to all of them. We are governed by consent. They should be looking in horror at the figures reported when the populace are asked about their trust in politicians, the police, the media, etc and realise that they are rapidly running out of consent
Yup. A lot of the smart arsery on here will turn to tears if Labour sinks as fast as I think they will after the election, in these circumstances.
It will be tears because it may not be the Tories that replace them and it certainly won’t be the smug, posh, in it for the rich, Cameroon Tories.
The country has been angry, to some extent, since about 2009 or earlier. Brexit was one demonstration, then there was Corbyn, and then Boris, but the underlying frustration wasn’t properly vented by any of those.
I really do fear for what is going to be unleashed when the public turn to someone else after Starmer fails.
Someone needed to give them some of what they wanted.
You are wishing for something rather than using any kind of evidential analysis of its likelihood.
The Labour Party coming to power will do so with the good wishes of the British public after so much which has gone wrong.
As it has been written by other people they will perform with competency. There will be no unravels. With the kind of majority now in forecast they will win two elections minimum and may be they will win three or four or even five elections in a row.
Your Conservative Party need to ask themselves what kind of a party we should be looking like between 2035 and 2040 because they will no longer have a prayer of winning before then.
Ever heard of "events" ?
Labour team look competent to me.
This has not been the case since at least your Mr Johnson and probably since Mrs May who was a fence-sitter. The Conservatives have had three disaster PMs in a row, four if you include Cameron who miscalculated over Brexit and then ran for his life.
You appear to have forgotten Liz Truss. Bearing in mind Theresa May *was* the fourth PM in a row counting back.
Starmer can't win, can he? Would you use private health care?:
Yes: Tories on here and elsewhere jump up and down with charges of gross hypocrisy. No: Tories on here and elsewhere say he's an evil man who would let his family die for the sake of his principles.
In reality, of course, if any member of his family had a life-threatening illness or accident then the NHS would leap to their rescue before the private sector could give him a price.
I disagree with this. If he sent (had sent - I think they're grown up?) his kids to private school, then I think he could be labelled a hypocrite. Healthcare is a bit different and, I think, he knew he'd be in the minority by saying no to that question and felt the need to justify it.
I don't see anything unethical in going private.
To each according to their need.
Not based on the size of their bank balance.
Socialism, Comrade.
Yebbut who gets to determine what constitutes need.
Is it actually possible we may see seats without a Tory candidate?
Who is maintaining the best list of seats without Tory and/or Labour candidates? I saw something on twitter a week ago but can't remember where it was now.
The public thinks the Conservatives are more likely to raise taxes than Labour, according to fresh polling shared with Sky News.
Well, then, the public aren't thinking straight.
Time for a new electorate, eh?
The electorate doesn't care, it's just angry at the Conservatives and that's blinding it to logic.
Politicians should remember and again not a party political point as it applies to all of them. We are governed by consent. They should be looking in horror at the figures reported when the populace are asked about their trust in politicians, the police, the media, etc and realise that they are rapidly running out of consent
Yup. A lot of the smart arsery on here will turn to tears if Labour sinks as fast as I think they will after the election, in these circumstances.
It will be tears because it may not be the Tories that replace them and it certainly won’t be the smug, posh, in it for the rich, Cameroon Tories.
The country has been angry, to some extent, since about 2009 or earlier. Brexit was one demonstration, then there was Corbyn, and then Boris, but the underlying frustration wasn’t properly vented by any of those.
I really do fear for what is going to be unleashed when the public turn to someone else after Starmer fails.
Someone needed to give them some of what they wanted.
You are wishing for something rather than using any kind of evidential analysis of its likelihood.
The Labour Party coming to power will do so with the good wishes of the British public after so much which has gone wrong.
As it has been written by other people they will perform with competency. There will be no unravels. With the kind of majority now in forecast they will win two elections minimum and may be they will win three or four or even five elections in a row.
Your Conservative Party need to ask themselves what kind of a party we should be looking like between 2035 and 2040 because they will no longer have a prayer of winning before then.
Ever heard of "events" ?
Yep - but I simply don't see them occurring. The reality is a suspect every 'event' in the next 3 years can be pinned on the incompetency of the previous Tory government...
well maybe but nobody foresaw covid. And as we can see Sunak throwing money at the elctorate earned him no credit. Labour have no particular competence edge - they use the same civil servants, their politicians went to the same universities and the sign up to they same big government policies.
Starmer has planted no seeds on what he is about so he is more likely to disappoint a lot of people fast, being all things to all men doesnt work.
Have you even considered the possibility that Starmer does what he says he's going to do?
Which is to bring in an era of calmer, more measured, governance than we've seen over the last eight years. Rather than seeing governance as a constant political campaign (Johnson, Truss, Sunak - but not May), use power benignly to heal division and make decisions for the common and national good. That's actually his schtick, and it's just possible that he'll be good at it.
I think most people would welcome a PM who sought to temper the febrile, chaotic nature of government that we've seen since the Brexit vote, where the governing party decides policy purely on the basis of campaigning rhetoric (Rwanda being a particularly stark example, but there's countless others). Making politics less interesting and divisive could be one of Starmer's worthy aims, and his soberness may help to achieve that.
Labour have now admitted they will aim to process asylum seekers offshore. Ie they will do Rwanda but call it something ELSE
They will fail, as their heart isn't in it.
The Conservatives will almost certainly move to occupy this space in Opposition, and it will predictably be called a "lurch to the right" regardless of what else they say and do, and the commentariat will predictably all echo that "elections are only won from the centre" etc. But, if they're serious, and they figure out a real plan to do it, then they might rapidly win again and change things. Because this is going to be an ongoing sore.
Almost certainly wouldn't happen with a Met-like public school leader, however.
Calling @Tissue_Price - his departure leaves the local Tories with no candidate. I hear that the Tories nationally really do have a problem and are trying to pressgang people.
Sam Freedman @Samfr · 2h Conversations with activists of all parties are doing nothing whatsoever to make me think the polls are wrong. Quite a few have said to me it feels like there's an earthquake coming.
Starmers response to the ECHR question was another open goal missed .
He should have made it clear that the only European countries not in the ECHR are Russia and Belarus and do people want the UK sharing that company.
He needs to do better in the final leaders debate .
We are going to get full on anti ECHR from Farage in this campaign
...and from Rishi. Two peas, one pod.
We will run out of things to leave at some point.
We could leave the Commonwealth - after all, it's full of foreigners?
We should remove voting rights in national elections from non-citizens.
So disenfranchise Commonwealth and Irish people resident here. Why?
Because the only people who should get a vote are those who have committed to the future of the country. If a Commonwealth or Irish citizen wants to take part in the decision making process for the future of our country then they should commit to UK citizenship.
I would also remove the vote from ex-pats who have permanently settled in other countries.
Brilliant idea. Wouldn’t stoke any fires in the Six Counties at all. “You can vote if you commit to U.K. citizenship”. Will go down a storm in Derry and West Belfast that will.
We can keep the exception for Irish citizens but non-reciprocal voting rights for everyone in the Commonwealth is an anachronism.
No taxation without representation!
You can try that argument in the US, but you won't get far.
Commonwealth citizens living in the UK pay tax to HMRC.
So do French, German and US citizens. They don't get the vote so why should Jamaicans or Indians?
I was amazed at how many of the UK-based Indian IT staff we had working for the bank had vote in the EU Ref. Every one who told me how they voted, voted Leave, including one who thought his vote wouldn't have counted because he was in a pro-Remain constituency.
In spite of the fact they voted Leave I would still contend they should not have had that vote unless they were British citizens. I also believe that ex-pats settled in other countries should not have had the vote.
I am with you on the first point.
On the second point, I believe every British citizen should have the vote, and pay UK taxes* wherever they live.
(*Offset FATCA-style by any local taxes they pay.)
Jeremy Hunt speaks up and it's like a breath of fresh air The evidence of Britain is that elections are always won from the centre ground and I think in a two-party system that will always be the case. We’ll always be a broad church, and I think that’s a good thing.
There it is. The Conservative Party is still in there somewhere. They missed a trick in not making him leader. Too late now, just another of history's "what if"s.
Trouble is that the Lib Dems have often tried being the centre party. It's not won them any elections. You need a large base of voters to win elections. Being on the centre won't guarantee you that.
About a week ago I started doing seat-by-seat predictions for each constituency, and got to number 50, but with Farage's announcement, I think I'll have to start again, lol. 😊
Will historians write that having covid parties in Downing Street while the Queen mourned alone at her husband's funeral destroyed the once mighty Conservative Party?
I think we have to accept that the game is up for the Conservative Party. As it is for Les Republicans in France, the Italian and Dutch Christian Democrats. Or the French or Greek Socialists. Parties eventually run out of road, and cease to speak for anyone other than careerists.
Jeremy Hunt speaks up and it's like a breath of fresh air The evidence of Britain is that elections are always won from the centre ground and I think in a two-party system that will always be the case. We’ll always be a broad church, and I think that’s a good thing.
There it is. The Conservative Party is still in there somewhere. They missed a trick in not making him leader. Too late now, just another of history's "what if"s.
Jeremy Hunt is another rich pathetic spineless centrist public school rentier dork. He’d be like Sunak without the agreeable common touch and interestingly metrosexual clothing
He’d be like Cameron without all the sound self assessment and measured humility. Boris without the gravitas and probity. The Tories are doomed beyond doomed if they keep plugging away at this centrist shit that no one wants
Europe shows the future. It will be fought between left and populist right. Britain will get a successful populist right party in the end, it’s up to the Tories whether it is them or a party that replaces them
Well, the boring centrist SKS is on course to win a spanking majority, so it just be your views that are the outer fringe.
It’s a bit early to say. Starmer has already staked out a position against the liberalism of Boris Johnson on immigration. His election will in practical terms mean more nationalism.
Jeremy Hunt speaks up and it's like a breath of fresh air The evidence of Britain is that elections are always won from the centre ground and I think in a two-party system that will always be the case. We’ll always be a broad church, and I think that’s a good thing.
There it is. The Conservative Party is still in there somewhere. They missed a trick in not making him leader. Too late now, just another of history's "what if"s.
Trouble is that the Lib Dems have often tried being the centre party. It's not won them any elections. You need a large base of voters to win elections. Being on the centre won't guarantee you that.
The LD's have always done best electorally, since the 1990's, when they have been seen to be slightly to the left of Labour, a lesson they will probably have to relearn all over again under Starmer, and challenging any of his more authoritarian policies, as they did under Blair.
Davey will have to shift his stance a little, but that he's surprised me on the upside in this election so far.
Starmers response to the ECHR question was another open goal missed .
He should have made it clear that the only European countries not in the ECHR are Russia and Belarus and do people want the UK sharing that company.
He needs to do better in the final leaders debate .
We are going to get full on anti ECHR from Farage in this campaign
...and from Rishi. Two peas, one pod.
We will run out of things to leave at some point.
We could leave the Commonwealth - after all, it's full of foreigners?
We should remove voting rights in national elections from non-citizens.
So disenfranchise Commonwealth and Irish people resident here. Why?
Because the only people who should get a vote are those who have committed to the future of the country. If a Commonwealth or Irish citizen wants to take part in the decision making process for the future of our country then they should commit to UK citizenship.
I would also remove the vote from ex-pats who have permanently settled in other countries.
And what about people who choose to have dual nationality?
If one of the dual is ours and they live here, they should have the vote.
The fact they also have another one is irrelevant.
IIRC, the legal fiction behind multiple nationality is that when you are in a country which you are a citizen of, all other citizenships are considered not to exist.
When I had dual US/UK, it was explained that this went to the point that my US passport wasn’t a valid document in the U.K. and the reverses. In the U.K. I was considered solely a U.K. citizen by the U.K. government. When in the US, solely a US citizen by the US government.
Assume you are (well) beyond draft and/or natty serv age?
Years ago knew a guy, of Greek ancestry, who spent a long vacation in Greece just after graduating from college. So long that an Greek official paid him a visit . . . to ask why he'd not (yet) begun his required time serving in the Greek Army?
It has been little commented on by media*, but in recent years the Tory Party has hollowed out. Used to be mass membership in millions with Con clubs and so on but now something like 150K. An v aging demographic as well.
* there was a long article in Newstateman a while ago but otherwise barely mentioned by the press iirc.
Pretty sure the long term decline in party memberships has been oft mentioned in the past. Apart from the SNP after the referendum, and, to a lesser degree, Labour during the Corbyn years, mass membership is simply not a thing anymore.
They really should not be struggling to find candidates with 150k members, even if the ones remaining will be increasingly weird and insular.
Tonight the LibDems put out a PPB all about compassion. Caring for people who are disabled and ill. Tonight - the Tories deselect David Duguid as candidate in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East - over the protest from his local association https://www.facebook.com/DavidDuguidMP
About a week ago I started doing seat-by-seat predictions for each constituency, and got to number 50, but with Farage's announcement, I think I'll have to start again, lol. 😊
At least you hadn't got through all of them before doing so!
You are actually using that analysis to defend the lie 🤷♀️
Seriously 🤷♀️
I mean, you watched that and came to the conclusion “there you are, Sunak hasn’t been caught out telling one of the biggest general election whoppers of all time.”
You're doing it wrong: you need to say £2,000 every time you write a post like this.
It's the latest £350 million on a bus and every time you write it, and annoy someone, they will respond, amplify and broadcast it further.
It will drown out much else and all people will hear is "Labour will put up my taxes a lot more".
This is absolutely correct.
That said... I think it's too late to prevent a Labour majority. It might save a dozen seats, however.
No. You don’t believe that.
If you think it’s going to help Conservatives in voting, explain how it gets through the second debate with Starmer, without Starmer shredding it? And Labour get so many other set pieces and types of debates between now and then, to shred it too. Even Chris Mason has already shredded it. I expect even Kuenssberg will before long.
Think of it the other way round. All the interviews with Sunak where he has to unshred this and prove it’s legit and make it work as a convincing attack. And all the other ministers and MPs too! Have you seen the Bim interview ‘Keir Starmer has been rumbled’ over tax, says Economic Secretary to the Treasury”
Is it actually possible we may see seats without a Tory candidate?
It's beginning to look possible. And any last-minute defections to Refuk, as suggested by PedestrianRock, would make it a near certainty.
There were 100 seats without a Tory candidate in both 1931 and 1935, and 170 in 1918. We'd need to go some way to match that!
This might be a fallacy of thinking, but...
1) There is *surely* going to be at least 1 defection 2) The best time to do it would be Friday to maximise damage to the Tory Party 3) The YouGov poll shock will only hit more tomorrow as it gets more public impact and probably hits some newspaper front pages, and makes some wavering Tory MPs say "Sod it, I'll go for it"
If you are a Tory MP in the Red Wall who has no chance right now, you may as well defect and potentially be the #2 figure to Farage in the post-election Parliament.
Tonight the LibDems put out a PPB all about compassion. Caring for people who are disabled and ill. Tonight - the Tories deselect David Duguid as candidate in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East - over the protest from his local association https://www.facebook.com/DavidDuguidMP
I think we have to accept that the game is up for the Conservative Party. As it is for Les Republicans in France, the Italian and Dutch Christian Democrats. Or the French or Greek Socialists. Parties eventually run out of road, and cease to speak for anyone other than careerists.
The entitlement has done for them. As it will for Labour. Theyve not cottoned on to how despised they all are. One by one theyll disintegrate as they speak for nobody
I think we have to accept that the game is up for the Conservative Party. As it is for Les Republicans in France, the Italian and Dutch Christian Democrats. Or the French or Greek Socialists. Parties eventually run out of road, and cease to speak for anyone other than careerists.
Not even the careerists, by the looks of things.
If one were an ambitious right-wing young thing, this ought to be the year to stand. Fly the flag somewhere hopeless, get mentioned in despatches, that sort of thing. Use that to get a better seat in 2028 and ride the upwave to Downing Street. See Dave C for the template.
It doesn't seem to be playing out like that. Partly, I suspect, because of the grimness of being a candidate this time round, but also- what doors is it going to open in the decade to come?
Tonight the LibDems put out a PPB all about compassion. Caring for people who are disabled and ill. Tonight - the Tories deselect David Duguid as candidate in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East - over the protest from his local association https://www.facebook.com/DavidDuguidMP
Pity all the Conservative leaflets so far have been branded with his name and face with barely a mention of the party Now what?
At least one local party member has just publicly quit the party in protest., People calling for Reform to adopt him.
Is it actually possible we may see seats without a Tory candidate?
Apart from one occasion since 1997 they've always had more candidates than the other parties. But I assume that is down to standing some number of candidates in Norther Ireland which the others have not (shame the UUP thing did not work out I suppose), from 4-16 candidates it looks like at first glance.
It would be very embarrassing nto to have any candidate, surely worst case scenario they can scramble up the minimum number of signatures and set up a paper candidate?
Is it true, that Boris Buses are being taken off the streets of London? Wrath of Khan versus BoJo?
Perhaps the fleet can be sold to Santo Domingo?
Yep, they're now some of the oldest buses in the fleet these days - the average age of a bus in London is about 5 years, and they use older hybrid powertrains rather than fully electric.
Most retired London buses get cascaded out to regional bus companies who don't need to work them quite as hard, but the Boris Buses might be trickier to do that with since they were built to a such a narrowly London-specific spec that won't work elsewhere (they've got a third door at the back, for example).
Tonight the LibDems put out a PPB all about compassion. Caring for people who are disabled and ill. Tonight - the Tories deselect David Duguid as candidate in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East - over the protest from his local association https://www.facebook.com/DavidDuguidMP
Pity all the Conservative leaflets so far have been branded with his name and face with barely a mention of the party Now what?
Tonight the LibDems put out a PPB all about compassion. Caring for people who are disabled and ill. Tonight - the Tories deselect David Duguid as candidate in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East - over the protest from his local association https://www.facebook.com/DavidDuguidMP
Pity all the Conservative leaflets so far have been branded with his name and face with barely a mention of the party Now what?
At least one local party member has just publicly quit the party in protest., People calling for Reform to adopt him.
Ha. He won't stand for Reform.
Will his voters bother turning out whoever the national party decide to parachute in?
I think we have to accept that the game is up for the Conservative Party. As it is for Les Republicans in France, the Italian and Dutch Christian Democrats. Or the French or Greek Socialists. Parties eventually run out of road, and cease to speak for anyone other than careerists.
They are a very old political party all things considered. Nearly 200 years by some measures.
If they go belly up will the mantle of Tory be passed to a new party?
So, the Tories did manage to get everybody talking about tax.
Every news outlet has done a forensic analysis of how big a lie it was.
Awesome work, lads. Trebles all round...
People misremember how 2016 net/gross £350M a week trick actually played out. Bus was going round for weeks before any furore began. A great many people voted on the basis it was actually true, anda huge sun of money in the scheme of things. Some people actually took years to realise the truth behind it.
But yesterday’s 2K lie had no time at all to do its business, before it changed today into a different understanding in the publics mind. In less than 24hrs this ploy collapsed and has became universally known as dubious claim. It’s already in the minds of those fleeting observer of politics – in other words the vast majority of people – who may only hear about the story in the loosest terms, as the row about another Tory lie. Even the Clangers have already heard its dubious from the tin chicken, who by some miracle can get Chris Masons podcast in her left ear.
All the news today about it being a lie, is already far more powerful than anything the Tories can now do to convince it isn’t. It’s now the very opposite of the 2016 bus. What it is advertising when people see it now is same old Tories always lying.
It’s going to have a negative impact on the Conservative campaign unless they can back away from it.
Nah, everyone knows Labour will need to put up taxes and aren't saying where.
Every trick like this has a kernel of truth in it.
Indeed. It is fairly obvious that they will get after richer pensioners as they are mostly Con voters (or at least not Lab voters).
Obviously if Cons somehow got back in then taxes would go up too (most likely by fiscal drag)
The other question would be where the centre-right Tories would go. Neither Starmer's vision of a particular kind of New Labour, nor the Lib Dems, are actually a natural fit.
They'd really need a new party or political space, I think, and where does the organisation or profile for that come from.
I think we have to accept that the game is up for the Conservative Party. As it is for Les Republicans in France, the Italian and Dutch Christian Democrats. Or the French or Greek Socialists. Parties eventually run out of road, and cease to speak for anyone other than careerists.
Not even the careerists, by the looks of things.
If one were an ambitious right-wing young thing, this ought to be the year to stand. Fly the flag somewhere hopeless, get mentioned in despatches, that sort of thing. Use that to get a better seat in 2028 and ride the upwave to Downing Street. See Dave C for the template.
It doesn't seem to be playing out like that. Partly, I suspect, because of the grimness of being a candidate this time round, but also- what doors is it going to open in the decade to come?
With people like Cameron, Sunak and (possibly) Starmer going from new MPs to Prime Minister in under a decade, and parliamentary careers being over and done in the time that used to be taken just becoming a Cabinet Minister, do ambitious people now have the stamina to come in at a time when a lengthy period out of office looks likely?
People like Blair and Brown came in in 1983, not exactly a grand time for the party, but a decade and more of grind got them to the top for a long period.
Did they expect it would take that long? Surely not, but they didn't jump ship along the way - whereas quite a few first timers from 2019 are fleeing for the Tories.
I think we have to accept that the game is up for the Conservative Party. As it is for Les Republicans in France, the Italian and Dutch Christian Democrats. Or the French or Greek Socialists. Parties eventually run out of road, and cease to speak for anyone other than careerists.
Parties can be re-invented and it might be easier to do so in opposition. The Conservative party has survived for a very long time so I wouldn't be issuing the last rights just yet.
Matthew Goodwin (calm down) makes the point that among the few conservative young people he knows, none associates with the Conservative party.
Is it actually possible we may see seats without a Tory candidate?
Doubt it - enough people who can be prevailed upon. There is a risk, though, of inadequately vetted candidates.
Little risk of any of them winning though.
No. But a fairly high chance of causing embarrassment in the campaign. I mean, you get it with vetted candidates but, "Party forced to distance itself from candidate who told pensioner to fuck off to Dignitas on Twitter" is always sub-optimal even if the candidate won't win. And it's riskier with hasty selections.
If Reform really does overtake the Tories in the polls, they could see a lot of defections.
Any poll change as dramatic as that that would be a big media story.
So am I right in saying, if anyone is thinking about doing it, they pretty much have to do it by Friday? And that Saturday onwards it would say 'Conservative' on their ballot paper regardless - making a defection nigh on impossible, unless they say they would join with Farage's after any election and hope that Voters figure out the difference?
Comments
Write special laws for norn if needed
We fought wars as a result
Which is to bring in an era of calmer, more measured, governance than we've seen over the last eight years. Rather than seeing governance as a constant political campaign (Johnson, Truss, Sunak - but not May), use power benignly to heal division and make decisions for the common and national good. That's actually his schtick, and it's just possible that he'll be good at it.
I think most people would welcome a PM who sought to temper the febrile, chaotic nature of government that we've seen since the Brexit vote, where the governing party decides policy purely on the basis of campaigning rhetoric (Rwanda being a particularly stark example, but there's countless others). Making politics less interesting and divisive could be one of Starmer's worthy aims, and his soberness may help to achieve that.
For any constituency
Halve the 2019 Tory vote.
Give Labour their 2017 vote.
Give reform the UKIP 2015 vote
Give the Lib Dems their 2019 vote...
It is inevitable. And it is the EU that you adore which leads the way, which is highly amusing and poignant
Can you imagine what the DUP would say if voting rights were different in NI and GB?
Ever heard the claim “UK overall tax burden now highest since 2nd world war”? Well, not on its standard rates and top rates is it?
Any growth (which they are actually gambling on like Truss plan was) is a spaff around pre re-election bonus.
Your pitch is "Look at those mad bastards over there; we should be like them"
No. No, we shouldn't.
I've definitely saved enough for a new knee or two if necessary.
By the time you are more likely to need it frequently the premiums are too expensive and there's another provider of last resort anyway.
https://x.com/edwardjdavey/status/1798414489190334975?s=61&t=zKbRKoZtYWU8Dmpp8GlX6Q
The Latin QTR. Heaving with night life. Not a beggar seen since I have been here. Paris is buzzing. But it is bicycle mayhem.
Going really traditional for dinner- onion soup, beef borginoninoninon, tarte tatin, cheese, lots of red wine. Surrounded by Americans.
Orleans tomorrow.
Switch your phone off!!!
https://x.com/journoontheedge/status/1798437030084681952
But almost all the boundaries have changed.
Almost every scrap of evidence suggests he will disappoint, but who knows. Let’s see
Even I voted LEAVE in 2016!
Edit. Snap.
Do you actually think it is a deterrent that smashes the gangs? Or merely a “they can’t stay in Britain if successful” hardline soundbite to win reform voters back?
I can stop the boats single handily so I don’t know why this government failed year after year. I would shoot holes in all the boats whilst they are still in the dunes. No boats no crossings. Tough on boats, tough on the logistics of the boats.
Every trick like this has a kernel of truth in it.
“Oh, a portable diesel generator has exploded” when actually it’s a piece of Russian missile descending on my road
To lead a party, you need an approach that works as well as it can overall across the UK. It might be that this is it. But he's got a pretty strong vested interest, and these are words crafted for Guardian reading liberals - not the approach his party has actually taken whilst he's been it's second most important figure, nor one that is calculated to hold Red Wall seats.
What you're saying is YOU like the approach. But neither you nor I are the UK.
It has been little commented on by media*, but in recent years the Tory Party has hollowed out. Used to be mass membership in millions with Con clubs and so on but now something like 150K. An v aging demographic as well.
* there was a long article in Newstateman a while ago but otherwise barely mentioned by the press iirc.
Unless you think Sunak has been a success?
The Conservatives will almost certainly move to occupy this space in Opposition, and it will predictably be called a "lurch to the right" regardless of what else they say and do, and the commentariat will predictably all echo that "elections are only won from the centre" etc. But, if they're serious, and they figure out a real plan to do it, then they might rapidly win again and change things. Because this is going to be an ongoing sore.
Almost certainly wouldn't happen with a Met-like public school leader, however.
You could be LOTO in three months at this rate.
I’m so pleased my brother isn’t standing, it would be sooooooo embarrassing. That really would be Hal Phillip Walker
Sam Freedman
@Samfr
·
2h
Conversations with activists of all parties are doing nothing whatsoever to make me think the polls are wrong. Quite a few have said to me it feels like there's an earthquake coming.
https://x.com/Samfr/status/1798423577072640430
On the second point, I believe every British citizen should have the vote, and pay UK taxes* wherever they live.
(*Offset FATCA-style by any local taxes they pay.)
Enough. Hire a death squad from El Salvador and Kill. Them. All
Forgot the link in my murderous passion
Perhaps the fleet can be sold to Santo Domingo?
Davey will have to shift his stance a little, but that he's surprised me on the upside in this election so far.
There were 100 seats without a Tory candidate in both 1931 and 1935, and 170 in 1918. We'd need to go some way to match that!
Years ago knew a guy, of Greek ancestry, who spent a long vacation in Greece just after graduating from college. So long that an Greek official paid him a visit . . . to ask why he'd not (yet) begun his required time serving in the Greek Army?
His response? Contacted his US Congressman ASAP!
They really should not be struggling to find candidates with 150k members, even if the ones remaining will be increasingly weird and insular.
https://esrcpartymembersproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/sn05125_hoc_membershipofukpoliticalparties.pdf
Tonight - the Tories deselect David Duguid as candidate in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East - over the protest from his local association
https://www.facebook.com/DavidDuguidMP
https://www.libdems.org.uk/plan
Punters may want to note that this is likely to reduce the GB vote share for betting purposes.
If you think it’s going to help Conservatives in voting, explain how it gets through the second debate with Starmer, without Starmer shredding it? And Labour get so many other set pieces and types of debates between now and then, to shred it too. Even Chris Mason has already shredded it. I expect even Kuenssberg will before long.
Think of it the other way round. All the interviews with Sunak where he has to unshred this and prove it’s legit and make it work as a convincing attack. And all the other ministers and MPs too!
Have you seen the Bim interview
‘Keir Starmer has been rumbled’ over tax, says Economic Secretary to the Treasury”
https://www.channel4.com/news/keir-starmer-has-been-rumbled-over-tax-says-economic-secretary-to-the-treasury
It’s like watching a fish drown 🫣
1) There is *surely* going to be at least 1 defection
2) The best time to do it would be Friday to maximise damage to the Tory Party
3) The YouGov poll shock will only hit more tomorrow as it gets more public impact and probably hits some newspaper front pages, and makes some wavering Tory MPs say "Sod it, I'll go for it"
If you are a Tory MP in the Red Wall who has no chance right now, you may as well defect and potentially be the #2 figure to Farage in the post-election Parliament.
How many will jump ship before then?
If one were an ambitious right-wing young thing, this ought to be the year to stand. Fly the flag somewhere hopeless, get mentioned in despatches, that sort of thing. Use that to get a better seat in 2028 and ride the upwave to Downing Street. See Dave C for the template.
It doesn't seem to be playing out like that. Partly, I suspect, because of the grimness of being a candidate this time round, but also- what doors is it going to open in the decade to come?
High Peak:
Con 12.5k
Lab 27k
Reform 6k
LD 3k
Turnout in 2019 was 54k so about 5-6k short
Mansfield:
Con 15.5k
Lab 22.5k
Reform 12k
LD 1.5k
Turnout in 2019 was 49k so about 2-3k too much
Probably not too far away
1997 - 648/659
2001 - 643/659
2005 - 630/646
2010 - 631/650
2015 - 647/650
2017 - 638/650
2019 - 635/650
It would be very embarrassing nto to have any candidate, surely worst case scenario they can scramble up the minimum number of signatures and set up a paper candidate?
Most retired London buses get cascaded out to regional bus companies who don't need to work them quite as hard, but the Boris Buses might be trickier to do that with since they were built to a such a narrowly London-specific spec that won't work elsewhere (they've got a third door at the back, for example).
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/05/general-election-latest-news-rishi-sunak-keir-starmer/
Labour: 39%
Reform: 31%
Lib Dems: 10%
Tories: 10%
Others: 10%
Any poll change as dramatic as that that would be a big media story.
If they go belly up will the mantle of Tory be passed to a new party?
Obviously if Cons somehow got back in then taxes would go up too (most likely by fiscal drag)
Neither Starmer's vision of a particular kind of New Labour, nor the Lib Dems, are actually a natural fit.
They'd really need a new party or political space, I think, and where does the organisation or profile for that come from.
Con 15200
Lab 15893 (!!)
Ref 11208
LD 2708
Blimey. But then not blimey. Especially with Nigel back.
And Gosport is unchanged;
Con 16100
Lab 13436
Ref 9266
LD 5473
Prolly smells about right, albeit from a distance.
People like Blair and Brown came in in 1983, not exactly a grand time for the party, but a decade and more of grind got them to the top for a long period.
Did they expect it would take that long? Surely not, but they didn't jump ship along the way - whereas quite a few first timers from 2019 are fleeing for the Tories.
Matthew Goodwin (calm down) makes the point that among the few conservative young people he knows, none associates with the Conservative party.