Starmer can't win, can he? Would you use private health care?:
Yes: Tories on here and elsewhere jump up and down with charges of gross hypocrisy. No: Tories on here and elsewhere say he's an evil man who would let his family die for the sake of his principles.
In reality, of course, if any member of his family had a life-threatening illness or accident then the NHS would leap to their rescue before the private sector could give him a price.
That is unsurprising really. You have to be extremely idealogical to say no they are dying but I believe in the absolute power of the state to provide this treatment. It is why that answer from Starmer stuck out for me, he is pitching himself as a moderate left of centre politician, but he was either lying or is more idealogical than he would like to let on.
The private school VAT is another. As a tax raising policy it makes no real sense.
Starmer on his mother: ""She just held my hand and said: 'You won't let your dad go private, will you?""
Starmer can't win, can he? Would you use private health care:
Yes: Tories on here and elsewhere jump up and down with charges of gross hypocrisy. No: Tories on here and elsewhere say he's an evil man who would let his family die for the sake of his principles.
In reality, of course, if any member of his family had a life-threatening illness or accident then the NHS would leap to their rescue before the private sector could give him a price.
"Yes of course, but I shouldn't have to. I'm lucky enough to be able to afford it, though I hope never to have to need to. Vote for me, and I'll build an NHS that makes private heathcare obsolete."
You are actually using that analysis to defend the lie 🤷♀️
Seriously 🤷♀️
I mean, you watched that and came to the conclusion “there you are, Sunak hasn’t been caught out telling one of the biggest general election whoppers of all time.”
No you have it wrong
Sky today also called out Labour for their dodgy dossier ( words used) of Labour's claim about the conservative NI proposals with Ed Conway slide charts demonstrating the dodgy workings and then ITV ended their report by saying nobody is addressing the 40 billion the independent IFS have declared a tax shortfall
You said “ No you have it wrong” and then you talked about something completely different, not Sunak’s big lie 🙂
You know yesterday when Starmer was in a spot, and kept saying “but Truss”, and you know how desperate it sounded? That’s what you’ve just done.
So which one of these isn’t already exposed and universally understood as lying this evening?
it was treasury work, not Tory SPAD work They came to the black hole listing out statements made by Labour politicians, that could or may not be policy, and put exaggerated sums against each one, obviously made up and without substance or credibility as cost of real policy commitments? The 2K figure came from a tax calculation only on working families, not how tax system actually works Sunak said it’s every year, for a cost spread over 4 years
The public thinks the Conservatives are more likely to raise taxes than Labour, according to fresh polling shared with Sky News.
Taxes will continue to go up, whoever takes over, and Labour will undoubtedly press the spending cuts button less hard.
I think what that shows is that people don't start from policy detail and work from there to a voting decision, so much as start from vibes and then seek to rationalise those vibes.
Me included, before anyone asks.
Which is why explaining = losing and why Rishi is in so much trouble.
Oops - sorry about my cock-up on the YouGov poll. I had not noticed the methodology change. On the old methods it would have been - Lab 45 (-1), Con 18 (-3), Ref 18 (+3), LD 8, Green 6
So that would show all the Reform advance coming from the Cons.
MoonRabbit will be pleased by the methodology change - I suspect bringing it rather more in line with the MRP headline figures.
On the new methods the change would be - Lab 40 (-4), C 19 (-2), Ref 17 (+3), LD 10 (-1), Green 7 (+1)
Does that suggest it is Don't knows that were flirting with Lab moving to Ref alongside the Con voters defecting?
Nigel should be spitting feathers at a change that robbed him of the chance to say he had caught up with the Cons.
All before the 'debate' and its consequent unravelling but we shall see.
Starmer can't win, can he? Would you use private health care:
Yes: Tories on here and elsewhere jump up and down with charges of gross hypocrisy. No: Tories on here and elsewhere say he's an evil man who would let his family die for the sake of his principles.
In reality, of course, if any member of his family had a life-threatening illness or accident then the NHS would leap to their rescue before the private sector could give him a price.
"Yes of course, but I shouldn't have to. I'm lucky enough to be able to afford it, though I hope never to have to need to. Vote for me, and I'll build an NHS that makes private heathcare obsolete."
Starmer can't win, can he? Would you use private health care:
Yes: Tories on here and elsewhere jump up and down with charges of gross hypocrisy. No: Tories on here and elsewhere say he's an evil man who would let his family die for the sake of his principles.
In reality, of course, if any member of his family had a life-threatening illness or accident then the NHS would leap to their rescue before the private sector could give him a price.
"Yes of course, but I shouldn't have to. I'm lucky enough to be able to afford it, though I hope never to have to need to. Vote for me, and I'll build an NHS that makes private heathcare obsolete."
Yes, fine, but my point was that the NHS still deals with all the really urgent stuff. I think it was you who said earlier "what if his children were seriously ill?" Well, the NHS would be there for them, even in its current poor state.
Starmer can't win, can he? Would you use private health care:
Yes: Tories on here and elsewhere jump up and down with charges of gross hypocrisy. No: Tories on here and elsewhere say he's an evil man who would let his family die for the sake of his principles.
In reality, of course, if any member of his family had a life-threatening illness or accident then the NHS would leap to their rescue before the private sector could give him a price.
"Yes of course, but I shouldn't have to. I'm lucky enough to be able to afford it, though I hope never to have to need to. Vote for me, and I'll build an NHS that makes private heathcare obsolete."
"without raising taxes."
Aye, right.
Utter bollocks.
Oh, I wasn't suggesting it would be true. Just that he should say it...
I am now pretty sure I saw debris falling from an intercepted drone/missile. The Odessans are normally extremely blasé - they stroll about during air raid warnings
But this was a massively loud bang - like a car backfiring times 50 - and everyone winced and crouched - and I turned and looked briefly back and I saw smoke. I hurried away. I thought maybe one of the many portable generators had exploded. But really - how likely is that?
There are widespread reports of bangs and explosions around Odesa at exactly that time - 5-6pm - and there was air defence at work and a confirmed Russian attack
That’s the most parsimonious explanation: flak or shrapnel descending. Quite unsettling
Starmer can't win, can he? Would you use private health care:
Yes: Tories on here and elsewhere jump up and down with charges of gross hypocrisy. No: Tories on here and elsewhere say he's an evil man who would let his family die for the sake of his principles.
In reality, of course, if any member of his family had a life-threatening illness or accident then the NHS would leap to their rescue before the private sector could give him a price.
"Yes of course, but I shouldn't have to. I'm lucky enough to be able to afford it, though I hope never to have to need to. Vote for me, and I'll build an NHS that makes private heathcare obsolete."
Yes, fine, but my point was that the NHS still deals with all the really urgent stuff. I think it was you who said earlier "what if his children were seriously ill?" Well, the NHS would be there for them, even in its current poor state.
I don't remember the wording, but I was thinking of conditions which involve ongoing suffering, but which have waiting lists skippable by going private. Not conditions for which, as you correctly point out, the NHS has an effective monopoly.
Can we get some more chat going about actual bets? There are still massive opportunities for trading Reform and the LDs if you believe that crossover is coming (even if it only lasts a few days) and would love some tips from more experienced heads.
This is a seismic all time moment - or at least, for a week it will be!
For actual bets you need to look for value.
If you want a massive opportunity from trading Reform then the bet to do is to lay their seat totals.
You can lay Farage being elected at 1.35 which looks like good value.
The public thinks the Conservatives are more likely to raise taxes than Labour, according to fresh polling shared with Sky News.
Well, then, the public aren't thinking straight.
Time for a new electorate, eh?
The electorate doesn't care, it's just angry at the Conservatives and that's blinding it to logic.
Politicians should remember and again not a party political point as it applies to all of them. We are governed by consent. They should be looking in horror at the figures reported when the populace are asked about their trust in politicians, the police, the media, etc and realise that they are rapidly running out of consent
The public thinks the Conservatives are more likely to raise taxes than Labour, according to fresh polling shared with Sky News.
Taxes will continue to go up, whoever takes over, and Labour will undoubtedly press the spending cuts button less hard.
I think what that shows is that people don't start from policy detail and work from there to a voting decision, so much as start from vibes and then seek to rationalise those vibes.
Me included, before anyone asks.
Which is why explaining = losing and why Rishi is in so much trouble.
Starmer can't win, can he? Would you use private health care?:
Yes: Tories on here and elsewhere jump up and down with charges of gross hypocrisy. No: Tories on here and elsewhere say he's an evil man who would let his family die for the sake of his principles.
In reality, of course, if any member of his family had a life-threatening illness or accident then the NHS would leap to their rescue before the private sector could give him a price.
Not necessarily
I was rang at 6.00pm on 27th December by my cardiologist to say my heart was worn out and I needed an urgent pacemaker
In January the junior doctors went on strike and I didn’t receive my life saving pacemaker until the 6th February
I was told that if I had chest pains to come to A & E which I actually did at 2.00am one morning only to be sent home not to drink coffee and rest and keep in touch
Indeed I and my family were so worried I did contact Spire who offered me an immediate pacemaker operation but I did wait the next few weeks for the NHS
I have been considering the environmental impact of flying. I need to fly a lot between the UK and Finland, maybe 18 times a year, return. Getting the train is not an option due to timings. My problem is that because of the route, connecting flights are much cheaper and more convenient but worse in terms of carbon emissions - around 70% more for a connecting flight than a direct flight. They can be offset in theory but it is going to be many decades before aviation can be decarbonised. I am very sceptical about all the airlines and their claims about sustainability (Finnair for example fly half empty planes at inflated fares and make significant profits), all the legacy carriers rely on selling connecting flights which emit more carbon than the low cost carriers who just fill planes to the max and fly from A to B - although in doing so, they set fares so low that they actually create a demand for flying that didn't exist before.
I just wondered what other people think about this issue? I don't think that you can ignore the problem.
I have been considering the environmental impact of flying. I need to fly a lot between the UK and Finland, maybe 18 times a year, return. Getting the train is not an option due to timings. My problem is that because of the route, connecting flights are much cheaper and more convenient but worse in terms of carbon emissions - around 70% more for a connecting flight than a direct flight. They can be offset in theory but it is going to be many decades before aviation can be decarbonised. I am very sceptical about all the airlines and their claims about sustainability (Finnair for example fly half empty planes at inflated fares and make significant profits), all the legacy carriers rely on selling connecting flights which emit more carbon than the low cost carriers who just fill planes to the max and fly from A to B - although in doing so, they set fares so low that they actually create a demand for flying that didn't exist before.
I just wondered what other people think about this issue? I don't think that you can ignore the problem.
You have to do what you have to do. I’ve limited myself to one flight a year to see the in-laws in recent years but as they get frailer I’ll have to go to the US much more. Finland is tough as you can’t go by train as you say so don’t sweat it too much.
Starmers response to the ECHR question was another open goal missed .
He should have made it clear that the only European countries not in the ECHR are Russia and Belarus and do people want the UK sharing that company.
He needs to do better in the final leaders debate .
We are going to get full on anti ECHR from Farage in this campaign
...and from Rishi. Two peas, one pod.
We will run out of things to leave at some point.
We could leave the Commonwealth - after all, it's full of foreigners?
We should remove voting rights in national elections from non-citizens.
So disenfranchise Commonwealth and Irish people resident here. Why?
They're not our citizens, its a relic of imperialism that should be abolished.
If you as a uk citizen are allowed to vote if you live there not so bothered as that is reciprocal. If they can live here and vote but I can't live there and vote then thats an issue
The public thinks the Conservatives are more likely to raise taxes than Labour, according to fresh polling shared with Sky News.
Well, then, the public aren't thinking straight.
Time for a new electorate, eh?
The electorate doesn't care, it's just angry at the Conservatives and that's blinding it to logic.
That is true, and in case you didn't know, a very close paraphrase of one of Tony Blair's more memorable comments about his period in office. (I think it is quoted in Rawnesley's book The End Of The Party, but I can't be arsed to look it up.)
Starmers response to the ECHR question was another open goal missed .
He should have made it clear that the only European countries not in the ECHR are Russia and Belarus and do people want the UK sharing that company.
He needs to do better in the final leaders debate .
We are going to get full on anti ECHR from Farage in this campaign
...and from Rishi. Two peas, one pod.
We will run out of things to leave at some point.
We could leave the Commonwealth - after all, it's full of foreigners?
We should remove voting rights in national elections from non-citizens.
So disenfranchise Commonwealth and Irish people resident here. Why?
Because the only people who should get a vote are those who have committed to the future of the country. If a Commonwealth or Irish citizen wants to take part in the decision making process for the future of our country then they should commit to UK citizenship.
I would also remove the vote from ex-pats who have permanently settled in other countries.
'There are serious issues at stake in this general election, and the Tories have just released nonsense figures with fake attribution and given it to newspapers who took it on trust. I’m really not sure that this will help their chances very much.' https://x.com/spectator/status/1798335581623091652
Rishi Sunak is losing the Spectator, let alone the Sun.
Starmer can't win, can he? Would you use private health care?:
Yes: Tories on here and elsewhere jump up and down with charges of gross hypocrisy. No: Tories on here and elsewhere say he's an evil man who would let his family die for the sake of his principles.
In reality, of course, if any member of his family had a life-threatening illness or accident then the NHS would leap to their rescue before the private sector could give him a price.
Starmer has very little to worry about if his claim he would use the NHS is the only thing Tories have on him.
The public thinks the Conservatives are more likely to raise taxes than Labour, according to fresh polling shared with Sky News.
Well, then, the public aren't thinking straight.
Time for a new electorate, eh?
The electorate doesn't care, it's just angry at the Conservatives and that's blinding it to logic.
That is true, and in case you didn't know, a very close paraphrase of one of Tony Blair's more memorable comments about his period in office. (I think it is quoted in Rawnesley's book The End Of The Party, but I can't be arsed to look it up.)
Sorry this is totally a cop out...its not x political party at fault its the electorate....no sorry its a political parties responsibility if they want votes to persuade voters they have the best option
I have no idea if Ed Davey's campaign will have any impact on their seat total, but I am totally in favour of how few fucks he has to give to convention and trying to ape the others.
Starmers response to the ECHR question was another open goal missed .
He should have made it clear that the only European countries not in the ECHR are Russia and Belarus and do people want the UK sharing that company.
He needs to do better in the final leaders debate .
We are going to get full on anti ECHR from Farage in this campaign
...and from Rishi. Two peas, one pod.
We will run out of things to leave at some point.
We could leave the Commonwealth - after all, it's full of foreigners?
We should remove voting rights in national elections from non-citizens.
So disenfranchise Commonwealth and Irish people resident here. Why?
They're not our citizens, its a relic of imperialism that should be abolished.
It’s a legacy of imperialism that people have lived and made their lives here. And have you considered the impact of telling people in Northern Ireland they can’t vote unless they’re British? Having narrowly failed to restart the Troubles by imposing a hard border you rightist twats can’t wait to have another go can you?
'There are serious issues at stake in this general election, and the Tories have just released nonsense figures with fake attribution and given it to newspapers who took it on trust. I’m really not sure that this will help their chances very much.' https://x.com/spectator/status/1798335581623091652
Rishi Sunak is losing the Spectator, let alone the Sun.
Another brilliant idea from @BartholomewRoberts - ensure peace in Northern Ireland by telling people there they can only vote if they identify as British. Is there no end to the man’s genius?
Starmers response to the ECHR question was another open goal missed .
He should have made it clear that the only European countries not in the ECHR are Russia and Belarus and do people want the UK sharing that company.
He needs to do better in the final leaders debate .
We are going to get full on anti ECHR from Farage in this campaign
...and from Rishi. Two peas, one pod.
We will run out of things to leave at some point.
We could leave the Commonwealth - after all, it's full of foreigners?
We should remove voting rights in national elections from non-citizens.
So disenfranchise Commonwealth and Irish people resident here. Why?
They're not our citizens, its a relic of imperialism that should be abolished.
It’s a legacy of imperialism that people have lived and made their lives here. It has nothing to do with imperialism. And have you considered the impact of telling people in Northern Ireland they can’t vote unless they’re British? Having narrowly failed to restart the Troubles by imposing a hard border you rightist twats can’t wait to have another go can you?
If people have made their lives here they're welcome to get citizenship and then they'll have the vote, if they don't then that's their choice.
Under the Good Friday Agreement I'd have no qualms with Irish people registering to vote in NI elections/constituencies, but in English/Welsh/Scottish constituencies then no, I see no reason to allow that.
I have been considering the environmental impact of flying. I need to fly a lot between the UK and Finland, maybe 18 times a year, return. Getting the train is not an option due to timings. My problem is that because of the route, connecting flights are much cheaper and more convenient but worse in terms of carbon emissions - around 70% more for a connecting flight than a direct flight. They can be offset in theory but it is going to be many decades before aviation can be decarbonised. I am very sceptical about all the airlines and their claims about sustainability (Finnair for example fly half empty planes at inflated fares and make significant profits), all the legacy carriers rely on selling connecting flights which emit more carbon than the low cost carriers who just fill planes to the max and fly from A to B - although in doing so, they set fares so low that they actually create a demand for flying that didn't exist before.
I just wondered what other people think about this issue? I don't think that you can ignore the problem.
You have to do what you have to do. I’ve limited myself to one flight a year to see the in-laws in recent years but as they get frailer I’ll have to go to the US much more. Finland is tough as you can’t go by train as you say so don’t sweat it too much.
I’ve ruled out private jet flights for the rest of the summer
Not just cutting back. Zero. Net zero private jetting Not a single Gulfstream til schools go back
I’ve got about a dozen flights to do between now and then but every single one will be commercial and many not even in First. I’m prepared to go Business as well
Until individuals step up - like me - we won’t see change
I am now pretty sure I saw debris falling from an intercepted drone/missile. The Odessans are normally extremely blasé - they stroll about during air raid warnings
But this was a massively loud bang - like a car backfiring times 50 - and everyone winced and crouched - and I turned and looked briefly back and I saw smoke. I hurried away. I thought maybe one of the many portable generators had exploded. But really - how likely is that?
There are widespread reports of bangs and explosions around Odesa at exactly that time - 5-6pm - and there was air defence at work and a confirmed Russian attack
That’s the most parsimonious explanation: flak or shrapnel descending. Quite unsettling
I am now pretty sure I saw debris falling from an intercepted drone/missile. The Odessans are normally extremely blasé - they stroll about during air raid warnings
But this was a massively loud bang - like a car backfiring times 50 - and everyone winced and crouched - and I turned and looked briefly back and I saw smoke. I hurried away. I thought maybe one of the many portable generators had exploded. But really - how likely is that?
There are widespread reports of bangs and explosions around Odesa at exactly that time - 5-6pm - and there was air defence at work and a confirmed Russian attack
That’s the most parsimonious explanation: flak or shrapnel descending. Quite unsettling
Look after yourself and perhaps don't hang around too long if you don't have to.
Odessa has a fascinating history ; as I remember it was one of the cities Catherine the Great partly developed, or founded, for the Greeks of the Black Sea, to keep them on side. A lot of the same comunity ended up getting killed or deported in the war in Mariupol two years ago, which was another of those cities. I've always heard of it described as a beautiful, atmospheric, historic, and layered sort of place.
The public thinks the Conservatives are more likely to raise taxes than Labour, according to fresh polling shared with Sky News.
Well, then, the public aren't thinking straight.
Time for a new electorate, eh?
The electorate doesn't care, it's just angry at the Conservatives and that's blinding it to logic.
Politicians should remember and again not a party political point as it applies to all of them. We are governed by consent. They should be looking in horror at the figures reported when the populace are asked about their trust in politicians, the police, the media, etc and realise that they are rapidly running out of consent
Yup. A lot of the smart arsery on here will turn to tears if Labour sinks as fast as I think they will after the election, in these circumstances.
It will be tears because it may not be the Tories that replace them and it certainly won’t be the smug, posh, in it for the rich, Cameroon Tories.
The country has been angry, to some extent, since about 2009 or earlier. Brexit was one demonstration, then there was Corbyn, and then Boris, but the underlying frustration wasn’t properly vented by any of those.
I really do fear for what is going to be unleashed when the public turn to someone else after Starmer fails.
Someone needed to give them some of what they wanted.
Another brilliant idea from @BartholomewRoberts - ensure peace in Northern Ireland by telling people there they can only vote if they identify as British. Is there no end to the man’s genius?
I never said that.
There's special rules for Northern Ireland in the Good Friday Agreement and I'm happy to respect that.
Doesn't mean Irish people resident in England should have the vote.
I have no idea if Ed Davey's campaign will have any impact on their seat total, but I am totally in favour of how few fucks he has to give to convention and trying to ape the others.
Starmer can't win, can he? Would you use private health care?:
Yes: Tories on here and elsewhere jump up and down with charges of gross hypocrisy. No: Tories on here and elsewhere say he's an evil man who would let his family die for the sake of his principles.
In reality, of course, if any member of his family had a life-threatening illness or accident then the NHS would leap to their rescue before the private sector could give him a price.
Not necessarily
I was rang at 6.00pm on 27th December by my cardiologist to say my heart was worn out and I needed an urgent pacemaker
In January the junior doctors went on strike and I didn’t receive my life saving pacemaker until the 6th February
I was told that if I had chest pains to come to A & E which I actually did at 2.00am one morning only to be sent home not to drink coffee and rest and keep in touch
Indeed I and my family were so worried I did contact Spire who offered me an immediate pacemaker operation but I did wait the next few weeks for the NHS
I'm delighted that your health issues were resolved (as far as possible), and your posts over a few months have shown that the NHS did the job for you. You didn't go private.
The public thinks the Conservatives are more likely to raise taxes than Labour, according to fresh polling shared with Sky News.
Well, then, the public aren't thinking straight.
Time for a new electorate, eh?
The electorate doesn't care, it's just angry at the Conservatives and that's blinding it to logic.
Politicians should remember and again not a party political point as it applies to all of them. We are governed by consent. They should be looking in horror at the figures reported when the populace are asked about their trust in politicians, the police, the media, etc and realise that they are rapidly running out of consent
Yup. A lot of the smart arsery on here will turn to tears if Labour sinks as fast as I think they will after the election, in these circumstances.
It will be tears because it may not be the Tories that replace them and it certainly won’t be the smug, posh, in it for the rich, Cameroon Tories.
The country has been angry, to some extent, since about 2009 or earlier. Brexit was one demonstration, then there was Corbyn, and then Boris, but the underlying frustration wasn’t properly vented by any of those.
I really do fear for what is going to be unleashed when the public turn to someone else after Starmer fails.
Someone needed to give them some of what they wanted.
Another brilliant idea from @BartholomewRoberts - ensure peace in Northern Ireland by telling people there they can only vote if they identify as British. Is there no end to the man’s genius?
I never said that.
There's special rules for Northern Ireland in the Good Friday Agreement and I'm happy to respect that.
Doesn't mean Irish people resident in England should have the vote.
Starmers response to the ECHR question was another open goal missed .
He should have made it clear that the only European countries not in the ECHR are Russia and Belarus and do people want the UK sharing that company.
He needs to do better in the final leaders debate .
We are going to get full on anti ECHR from Farage in this campaign
...and from Rishi. Two peas, one pod.
We will run out of things to leave at some point.
We could leave the Commonwealth - after all, it's full of foreigners?
We should remove voting rights in national elections from non-citizens.
So disenfranchise Commonwealth and Irish people resident here. Why?
Because the only people who should get a vote are those who have committed to the future of the country. If a Commonwealth or Irish citizen wants to take part in the decision making process for the future of our country then they should commit to UK citizenship.
I would also remove the vote from ex-pats who have permanently settled in other countries.
Brilliant idea. Wouldn’t stoke any fires in the Six Counties at all. “You can vote if you commit to U.K. citizenship”. Will go down a storm in Derry and West Belfast that will.
The public thinks the Conservatives are more likely to raise taxes than Labour, according to fresh polling shared with Sky News.
Well, then, the public aren't thinking straight.
Time for a new electorate, eh?
The electorate doesn't care, it's just angry at the Conservatives and that's blinding it to logic.
Politicians should remember and again not a party political point as it applies to all of them. We are governed by consent. They should be looking in horror at the figures reported when the populace are asked about their trust in politicians, the police, the media, etc and realise that they are rapidly running out of consent
Yup. A lot of the smart arsery on here will turn to tears if Labour sinks as fast as I think they will after the election, in these circumstances.
It will be tears because it may not be the Tories that replace them and it certainly won’t be the smug, posh, in it for the rich, Cameroon Tories.
The country has been angry, to some extent, since about 2009 or earlier. Brexit was one demonstration, then there was Corbyn, and then Boris, but the underlying frustration wasn’t properly vented by any of those.
I really do fear for what is going to be unleashed when the public turn to someone else after Starmer fails.
Someone needed to give them some of what they wanted.
I think SKS is going to be given the benefit of the doubt for the next few years - it's post 2029 that requires thinking about...
I am now pretty sure I saw debris falling from an intercepted drone/missile. The Odessans are normally extremely blasé - they stroll about during air raid warnings
But this was a massively loud bang - like a car backfiring times 50 - and everyone winced and crouched - and I turned and looked briefly back and I saw smoke. I hurried away. I thought maybe one of the many portable generators had exploded. But really - how likely is that?
There are widespread reports of bangs and explosions around Odesa at exactly that time - 5-6pm - and there was air defence at work and a confirmed Russian attack
That’s the most parsimonious explanation: flak or shrapnel descending. Quite unsettling
I am now pretty sure I saw debris falling from an intercepted drone/missile. The Odessans are normally extremely blasé - they stroll about during air raid warnings
But this was a massively loud bang - like a car backfiring times 50 - and everyone winced and crouched - and I turned and looked briefly back and I saw smoke. I hurried away. I thought maybe one of the many portable generators had exploded. But really - how likely is that?
There are widespread reports of bangs and explosions around Odesa at exactly that time - 5-6pm - and there was air defence at work and a confirmed Russian attack
That’s the most parsimonious explanation: flak or shrapnel descending. Quite unsettling
Look after yourself and perhaps don't hang around too long.
Odessa has a fascinating history ; as I remember it was partly one of the cities Catherine the Great founded for the Greeks of the Black Sea, to keep them on side. A lot of the same comunity ended up getting killed or deported in the war in Mariupol two years ago, which was another of those cities. I've always heard of it described as a beautiful, atmospheric, historic, and layered place.
It’s a magical place. Stunning. With a unique dreamy ambience even in war!
But yeah, it is also quite scary. Even before today I was wondering how long I will linger. Having seen that this arvo I don’t reckon I’ll be here for weeks, to put it mildly. Get my articles done; move on fast
I have been considering the environmental impact of flying. I need to fly a lot between the UK and Finland, maybe 18 times a year, return. Getting the train is not an option due to timings. My problem is that because of the route, connecting flights are much cheaper and more convenient but worse in terms of carbon emissions - around 70% more for a connecting flight than a direct flight. They can be offset in theory but it is going to be many decades before aviation can be decarbonised. I am very sceptical about all the airlines and their claims about sustainability (Finnair for example fly half empty planes at inflated fares and make significant profits), all the legacy carriers rely on selling connecting flights which emit more carbon than the low cost carriers who just fill planes to the max and fly from A to B - although in doing so, they set fares so low that they actually create a demand for flying that didn't exist before.
I just wondered what other people think about this issue? I don't think that you can ignore the problem.
You have to do what you have to do. I’ve limited myself to one flight a year to see the in-laws in recent years but as they get frailer I’ll have to go to the US much more. Finland is tough as you can’t go by train as you say so don’t sweat it too much.
I’ve ruled out private jet flights for the rest of the summer
Not just cutting back. Zero. Net zero private jetting Not a single Gulfstream til schools go back
I’ve got about a dozen flights to do between now and then but every single one will be commercial and many not even in First. I’m prepared to go Business as well
Until individuals step up - like me - we won’t see change
You are actually using that analysis to defend the lie 🤷♀️
Seriously 🤷♀️
I mean, you watched that and came to the conclusion “there you are, Sunak hasn’t been caught out telling one of the biggest general election whoppers of all time.”
You're doing it wrong: you need to say £2,000 every time you write a post like this.
It's the latest £350 million on a bus and every time you write it, and annoy someone, they will respond, amplify and broadcast it further.
It will drown out much else and all people will hear is "Labour will put up my taxes a lot more".
You actually still think it’s going to work?
I don’t believe you. You’re just wish-casting, which after horrible week I don’t blame you for. Absolutely everyone knows this lie won’t work now, so widely exposed as a lie and being ridiculed all day today across every news bulletin, and same will happen again every day whenever mentioned over the next 4 weeks, you don’t see how this massive media exposure of it as a lie will actually educate the electorate, it was such a transparently weak attempt to con them?
You have never heard the story of the little boy who cried wolf? You don’t think what happened in 2016, how people came to feel conned by that one, is going to play here, in how they now regard this version of the same trick?
No. This was always a Brexit election anyway in the astonishing threat to the Blue Wall, now already outed as telling another 2016 style lie, that reminder, that link to 2016 - how many votes in the coming backlash to Sunak’s mistakes yesterday, will the Tories actually lose?
Labour are already going to get a poll bounce from Starmer winning the debate so convincingly, the big lie falling apart in just 24 hours too could send the Conservative share downward at same time. The coming polls could be a new definition of shocking.
I have no idea if Ed Davey's campaign will have any impact on their seat total, but I am totally in favour of how few fucks he has to give to convention and trying to ape the others.
Him coming across as more human and in touch will certainly be very attractive for many more Moderate Tories, particularly those in seats where Labour have no chance.
I still think the LDs are very underpriced on seat spreads and on being the opposition.
They have been within touching distance of the opposition, or already there, in many MRP polls for a bit now - and Farage’s return will only help that.
I’m on LD’s ‘most seats without Labour’ at 10.5 and that looks a big price at the moment. Can still be had for around 5 and I think it will come down more.
Starmer can't win, can he? Would you use private health care?:
Yes: Tories on here and elsewhere jump up and down with charges of gross hypocrisy. No: Tories on here and elsewhere say he's an evil man who would let his family die for the sake of his principles.
In reality, of course, if any member of his family had a life-threatening illness or accident then the NHS would leap to their rescue before the private sector could give him a price.
Sadly I think your last paragraph is no longer accurate. I know several people whith life threatening conditions who have opted to go private because they have no immediate prospect of meaningful treatment on the NHS. People dying on waiting lists is an established fact.
But I agree with you that Starmer can't win and that is to the shame of our political commentariate. I would like to see him staate clearly that, yes he would use private health care if necessary, which for one thing would ease pressure on the NHS just a little, but that the aim should be to make going private unecessary.
The public thinks the Conservatives are more likely to raise taxes than Labour, according to fresh polling shared with Sky News.
Well, then, the public aren't thinking straight.
Time for a new electorate, eh?
The electorate doesn't care, it's just angry at the Conservatives and that's blinding it to logic.
Politicians should remember and again not a party political point as it applies to all of them. We are governed by consent. They should be looking in horror at the figures reported when the populace are asked about their trust in politicians, the police, the media, etc and realise that they are rapidly running out of consent
Yup. A lot of the smart arsery on here will turn to tears if Labour sinks as fast as I think they will after the election, in these circumstances.
It will be tears because it may not be the Tories that replace them and it certainly won’t be the smug, posh, in it for the rich, Cameroon Tories.
The country has been angry, to some extent, since about 2009 or earlier. Brexit was one demonstration, then there was Corbyn, and then Boris, but the underlying frustration wasn’t properly vented by any of those.
I really do fear for what is going to be unleashed when the public turn to someone else after Starmer fails.
Someone needed to give them some of what they wanted.
I think SKS is going to be given the benefit of the doubt for the next few years - it's post 2029 that requires thinking about...
Yeah that’s what I mean. The majority he’s going to get assures Labour of a full parliament, but it’s what then happens that’s troubling.
I have been considering the environmental impact of flying. I need to fly a lot between the UK and Finland, maybe 18 times a year, return. Getting the train is not an option due to timings. My problem is that because of the route, connecting flights are much cheaper and more convenient but worse in terms of carbon emissions - around 70% more for a connecting flight than a direct flight. They can be offset in theory but it is going to be many decades before aviation can be decarbonised. I am very sceptical about all the airlines and their claims about sustainability (Finnair for example fly half empty planes at inflated fares and make significant profits), all the legacy carriers rely on selling connecting flights which emit more carbon than the low cost carriers who just fill planes to the max and fly from A to B - although in doing so, they set fares so low that they actually create a demand for flying that didn't exist before.
I just wondered what other people think about this issue? I don't think that you can ignore the problem.
You need Rail Baltica to be built, including the Tallinn to Helsinki tunnel.
Then you should be able to do it from London with about 3 trains in about 24-26 hours: London-Brussels, Brussels-Berlin and then the proposed night sleeper from there to Tallinn, and through the tunnel if it's done.
But, you'll probably need to wait at least 8-10 years and hope the Russians don't invade and seize the Suwałki Gap in the meantime.
Starmer can't win, can he? Would you use private health care?:
Yes: Tories on here and elsewhere jump up and down with charges of gross hypocrisy. No: Tories on here and elsewhere say he's an evil man who would let his family die for the sake of his principles.
In reality, of course, if any member of his family had a life-threatening illness or accident then the NHS would leap to their rescue before the private sector could give him a price.
I disagree with this. If he sent (had sent - I think they're grown up?) his kids to private school, then I think he could be labelled a hypocrite. Healthcare is a bit different and, I think, he knew he'd be in the minority by saying no to that question and felt the need to justify it.
Starmers response to the ECHR question was another open goal missed .
He should have made it clear that the only European countries not in the ECHR are Russia and Belarus and do people want the UK sharing that company.
He needs to do better in the final leaders debate .
We are going to get full on anti ECHR from Farage in this campaign
...and from Rishi. Two peas, one pod.
We will run out of things to leave at some point.
We could leave the Commonwealth - after all, it's full of foreigners?
We should remove voting rights in national elections from non-citizens.
So disenfranchise Commonwealth and Irish people resident here. Why?
Because the only people who should get a vote are those who have committed to the future of the country. If a Commonwealth or Irish citizen wants to take part in the decision making process for the future of our country then they should commit to UK citizenship.
I would also remove the vote from ex-pats who have permanently settled in other countries.
Brilliant idea. Wouldn’t stoke any fires in the Six Counties at all. “You can vote if you commit to U.K. citizenship”. Will go down a storm in Derry and West Belfast that will.
Starmer can't win, can he? Would you use private health care?:
Yes: Tories on here and elsewhere jump up and down with charges of gross hypocrisy. No: Tories on here and elsewhere say he's an evil man who would let his family die for the sake of his principles.
In reality, of course, if any member of his family had a life-threatening illness or accident then the NHS would leap to their rescue before the private sector could give him a price.
Not necessarily
I was rang at 6.00pm on 27th December by my cardiologist to say my heart was worn out and I needed an urgent pacemaker
In January the junior doctors went on strike and I didn’t receive my life saving pacemaker until the 6th February
I was told that if I had chest pains to come to A & E which I actually did at 2.00am one morning only to be sent home not to drink coffee and rest and keep in touch
Indeed I and my family were so worried I did contact Spire who offered me an immediate pacemaker operation but I did wait the next few weeks for the NHS
I'm delighted that your health issues were resolved (as far as possible), and your posts over a few months have shown that the NHS did the job for you. You didn't go private.
It was touch and go both in my health but also going private which my family wanted me to do
The public thinks the Conservatives are more likely to raise taxes than Labour, according to fresh polling shared with Sky News.
Well, then, the public aren't thinking straight.
Time for a new electorate, eh?
The electorate doesn't care, it's just angry at the Conservatives and that's blinding it to logic.
Politicians should remember and again not a party political point as it applies to all of them. We are governed by consent. They should be looking in horror at the figures reported when the populace are asked about their trust in politicians, the police, the media, etc and realise that they are rapidly running out of consent
Yup. A lot of the smart arsery on here will turn to tears if Labour sinks as fast as I think they will after the election, in these circumstances.
It will be tears because it may not be the Tories that replace them and it certainly won’t be the smug, posh, in it for the rich, Cameroon Tories.
The country has been angry, to some extent, since about 2009 or earlier. Brexit was one demonstration, then there was Corbyn, and then Boris, but the underlying frustration wasn’t properly vented by any of those.
I really do fear for what is going to be unleashed when the public turn to someone else after Starmer fails.
Someone needed to give them some of what they wanted.
Don't forget Scottish nationalism as well
Yup. Choppy waters ahead. Those dreaming of a return to the 90s and forgetting about it all are, well, dreaming.
Comments
https://x.com/zivoadam/status/1798354714117226681?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
UKRAINE – Explosion 💥 reported in Odesa, Zatoka area —possibly air defense interception ongoing after Russian assault.
#Ukraine #Odesa #Zatoka #June5
https://x.com/afgermania/status/1798356668939673902?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Yes: Tories on here and elsewhere jump up and down with charges of gross hypocrisy.
No: Tories on here and elsewhere say he's an evil man who would let his family die for the sake of his principles.
In reality, of course, if any member of his family had a life-threatening illness or accident then the NHS would leap to their rescue before the private sector could give him a price.
Stay safe.
I believe I heard - and glimpsed - falling debris from a missile/air defence at work 5-6pm today
It was bloody loud and about 200m away
Well done Labour.
https://x.com/pensionsmonkey/status/1798410776434082205?s=61
Very ungallant of Sir Keir!
(Or maybe I am indeed wrong —- it’s been known!)
@LeeAndersonMP_
It's Happening 🇬🇧
The common sense invasion is sweeping the nation thanks to the Peoples Army
@reformparty_uk
https://news.sky.com/story/reform-uk-pulls-to-within-two-points-of-tories-in-latest-yougov-poll-13148396"
https://x.com/LeeAndersonMP_/status/1798388258780684297
Tax take will be a lot bigger, public services will be better funded but somehow still manage to be even shitter
Maybe you should read it
https://x.com/EdConwaySky/status/1798343959607193764?t=2neA7Co8dAVmuLyH23Y3KQ&s=19
I think what that shows is that people don't start from policy detail and work from there to a voting decision, so much as start from vibes and then seek to rationalise those vibes.
Me included, before anyone asks.
Which is why explaining = losing and why Rishi is in so much trouble.
(It’s not called Pedantic Betting without due cause)
So that would show all the Reform advance coming from the Cons.
MoonRabbit will be pleased by the methodology change - I suspect bringing it rather more in line with the MRP headline figures.
On the new methods the change would be - Lab 40 (-4), C 19 (-2), Ref 17 (+3), LD 10 (-1), Green 7 (+1)
Does that suggest it is Don't knows that were flirting with Lab moving to Ref alongside the Con voters defecting?
Nigel should be spitting feathers at a change that robbed him of the chance to say he had caught up with the Cons.
All before the 'debate' and its consequent unravelling but we shall see.
Could SKS fans and JC fans both have to explain this to each other?
Aye, right.
Utter bollocks.
Could SKS fans and JC fans both have to explain this to each other?
I am now pretty sure I saw debris falling from an intercepted drone/missile. The Odessans are normally extremely blasé - they stroll about during air raid warnings
But this was a massively loud bang - like a car backfiring times 50 - and everyone winced and crouched - and I turned and looked briefly back and I saw smoke. I hurried away. I thought maybe one of the many portable generators had exploded. But really - how likely is that?
There are widespread reports of bangs and explosions around Odesa at exactly that time - 5-6pm - and there was air defence at work and a confirmed Russian attack
That’s the most parsimonious explanation: flak or shrapnel descending. Quite unsettling
Fair play.
If you want a massive opportunity from trading Reform then the bet to do is to lay their seat totals.
You can lay Farage being elected at 1.35 which looks like good value.
I was rang at 6.00pm on 27th December by my cardiologist to say my heart was worn out and I needed an urgent pacemaker
In January the junior doctors went on strike and I didn’t receive my life saving pacemaker until the 6th February
I was told that if I had chest pains to come to A & E which I actually did at 2.00am one morning only to be sent home not to drink coffee and rest and keep in touch
Indeed I and my family were so worried I did contact Spire who offered me an immediate pacemaker operation but I did wait the next few weeks for the NHS
I just wondered what other people think about this issue? I don't think that you can ignore the problem.
Do we know how many seats the Tories still don’t have a candidate for?
And do we know the same for the LDs and Reform?
The Tory Party that believed in low taxes, aspiration and home ownership is dead and buried.
Now we have the HYUFDian Tory Party that believes in high taxes, welfare to support client vote pensioners, inheritances and high house prices.
When the old Tory Party returns it'll be worth voting for, but its current incarnation is no better than Labour.
Labour welfare to support the poor is no more expensive than Tory welfare to support pensioners.
I would also remove the vote from ex-pats who have permanently settled in other countries.
https://x.com/spectator/status/1798335581623091652
Rishi Sunak is losing the Spectator, let alone the Sun.
“How much has tax gone up under the Conservatives in the last parliamentary term per household?”
Bim Afolami: It's difficult to calculate
“According to @edconway taxes have gone up £13k. £2k under Labour sounds like a bargain in comparison, doesn't it?”
Spending on welfare today is higher than it was in 2010.
Today's Tory Party is a high tax, high welfare party. Only welfare isn't going to the poor.
(But he’s right, in this case)
Under the Good Friday Agreement I'd have no qualms with Irish people registering to vote in NI elections/constituencies, but in English/Welsh/Scottish constituencies then no, I see no reason to allow that.
Not just cutting back. Zero. Net zero private jetting Not a single Gulfstream til schools go back
I’ve got about a dozen flights to do between now and then but every single one will be commercial and many not even in First. I’m prepared to go Business as well
Until individuals step up - like me - we won’t see change
Odessa has a fascinating history ; as I remember it was one of the cities Catherine the Great partly developed, or founded, for the Greeks of the Black Sea, to keep them on side. A lot of the same comunity ended up getting killed or deported in the war in Mariupol two years ago, which was another of those cities. I've always heard of it described as a beautiful, atmospheric, historic, and layered sort of place.
It will be tears because it may not be the Tories that replace them and it certainly won’t be the smug, posh, in it for the rich, Cameroon Tories.
The country has been angry, to some extent, since about 2009 or earlier. Brexit was one demonstration, then there was Corbyn, and then Boris, but the underlying frustration wasn’t properly vented by any of those.
I really do fear for what is going to be unleashed when the public turn to someone else after Starmer fails.
Someone needed to give them some of what they wanted.
There's special rules for Northern Ireland in the Good Friday Agreement and I'm happy to respect that.
Doesn't mean Irish people resident in England should have the vote.
but it could be more
But yeah, it is also quite scary. Even before today I was wondering how long I will linger. Having seen that this arvo I don’t reckon I’ll be here for weeks, to put it mildly. Get my articles done; move on fast
I don’t believe you. You’re just wish-casting, which after horrible week I don’t blame you for. Absolutely everyone knows this lie won’t work now, so widely exposed as a lie and being ridiculed all day today across every news bulletin, and same will happen again every day whenever mentioned over the next 4 weeks, you don’t see how this massive media exposure of it as a lie will actually educate the electorate, it was such a transparently weak attempt to con them?
You have never heard the story of the little boy who cried wolf?
You don’t think what happened in 2016, how people came to feel conned by that one, is going to play here, in how they now regard this version of the same trick?
No. This was always a Brexit election anyway in the astonishing threat to the Blue Wall, now already outed as telling another 2016 style lie, that reminder, that link to 2016 - how many votes in the coming backlash to Sunak’s mistakes yesterday, will the Tories actually lose?
Labour are already going to get a poll bounce from Starmer winning the debate so convincingly, the big lie falling apart in just 24 hours too could send the Conservative share downward at same time. The coming polls could be a new definition of shocking.
Let’s see who’s right. It’s 23.4 tonight.
https://news.sky.com/story/general-election-poll-tracker-will-labour-or-the-conservatives-win-12903488
If not, why should Irish people in London, Cardiff or Edinburgh?
Belfast is different.
I still think the LDs are very underpriced on seat spreads and on being the opposition.
They have been within touching distance of the opposition, or already there, in many MRP polls for a bit now - and Farage’s return will only help that.
I’m on LD’s ‘most seats without Labour’ at 10.5 and that looks a big price at the moment. Can still be had for around 5 and I think it will come down more.
But I agree with you that Starmer can't win and that is to the shame of our political commentariate. I would like to see him staate clearly that, yes he would use private health care if necessary, which for one thing would ease pressure on the NHS just a little, but that the aim should be to make going private unecessary.
Then you should be able to do it from London with about 3 trains in about 24-26 hours: London-Brussels, Brussels-Berlin and then the proposed night sleeper from there to Tallinn, and through the tunnel if it's done.
But, you'll probably need to wait at least 8-10 years and hope the Russians don't invade and seize the Suwałki Gap in the meantime.
And the government has been spent a lot more over the last five years per household than it did in the five years before that.
Not least because of covid and Ukraine effects.
Or so I am led to believe.
Farage isn’t *really* a politician. He’s a campaigner (well, a grifter really, but let’s be generous).