Tonight the LibDems put out a PPB all about compassion. Caring for people who are disabled and ill. Tonight - the Tories deselect David Duguid as candidate in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East - over the protest from his local association https://www.facebook.com/DavidDuguidMP
Pity all the Conservative leaflets so far have been branded with his name and face with barely a mention of the party Now what?
Tonight the LibDems put out a PPB all about compassion. Caring for people who are disabled and ill. Tonight - the Tories deselect David Duguid as candidate in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East - over the protest from his local association https://www.facebook.com/DavidDuguidMP
Pity all the Conservative leaflets so far have been branded with his name and face with barely a mention of the party Now what?
At least one local party member has just publicly quit the party in protest., People calling for Reform to adopt him.
Tonight the LibDems put out a PPB all about compassion. Caring for people who are disabled and ill. Tonight - the Tories deselect David Duguid as candidate in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East - over the protest from his local association https://www.facebook.com/DavidDuguidMP
Pity all the Conservative leaflets so far have been branded with his name and face with barely a mention of the party Now what?
At least one local party member has just publicly quit the party in protest., People calling for Reform to adopt him.
Ha. He won't stand for Reform.
Will his voters bother turning out whoever the national party decide to parachute in?
I think we have to accept that the game is up for the Conservative Party. As it is for Les Republicans in France, the Italian and Dutch Christian Democrats. Or the French or Greek Socialists. Parties eventually run out of road, and cease to speak for anyone other than careerists.
They are a very old political party all things considered. Nearly 200 years by some measures.
If they go belly up will the mantle of Tory be passed to a new party?
So, the Tories did manage to get everybody talking about tax.
Every news outlet has done a forensic analysis of how big a lie it was.
Awesome work, lads. Trebles all round...
People misremember how 2016 net/gross £350M a week trick actually played out. Bus was going round for weeks before any furore began. A great many people voted on the basis it was actually true, anda huge sun of money in the scheme of things. Some people actually took years to realise the truth behind it.
But yesterday’s 2K lie had no time at all to do its business, before it changed today into a different understanding in the publics mind. In less than 24hrs this ploy collapsed and has became universally known as dubious claim. It’s already in the minds of those fleeting observer of politics – in other words the vast majority of people – who may only hear about the story in the loosest terms, as the row about another Tory lie. Even the Clangers have already heard its dubious from the tin chicken, who by some miracle can get Chris Masons podcast in her left ear.
All the news today about it being a lie, is already far more powerful than anything the Tories can now do to convince it isn’t. It’s now the very opposite of the 2016 bus. What it is advertising when people see it now is same old Tories always lying.
It’s going to have a negative impact on the Conservative campaign unless they can back away from it.
Nah, everyone knows Labour will need to put up taxes and aren't saying where.
Every trick like this has a kernel of truth in it.
Indeed. It is fairly obvious that they will get after richer pensioners as they are mostly Con voters (or at least not Lab voters).
Obviously if Cons somehow got back in then taxes would go up too (most likely by fiscal drag)
The other question would be where the centre-right Tories would go. Neither Starmer's vision of a particular kind of New Labour, nor the Lib Dems, are actually a natural fit.
They'd really need a new party or political space, I think, and where does the organisation or profile for that come from.
Tonight the LibDems put out a PPB all about compassion. Caring for people who are disabled and ill. Tonight - the Tories deselect David Duguid as candidate in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East - over the protest from his local association https://www.facebook.com/DavidDuguidMP
Pity all the Conservative leaflets so far have been branded with his name and face with barely a mention of the party Now what?
At least one local party member has just publicly quit the party in protest., People calling for Reform to adopt him.
Ha. He won't stand for Reform.
Will his voters bother turning out whoever the national party decide to parachute in?
Depends whom they have in mind. This throws it open.
I've been openly wondering for days on here who's best placed to unseat Duguid. In all my blinkered foolishness, I never once considered the Conservative and Unionist Party was the correct answer.
I think we have to accept that the game is up for the Conservative Party. As it is for Les Republicans in France, the Italian and Dutch Christian Democrats. Or the French or Greek Socialists. Parties eventually run out of road, and cease to speak for anyone other than careerists.
Not even the careerists, by the looks of things.
If one were an ambitious right-wing young thing, this ought to be the year to stand. Fly the flag somewhere hopeless, get mentioned in despatches, that sort of thing. Use that to get a better seat in 2028 and ride the upwave to Downing Street. See Dave C for the template.
It doesn't seem to be playing out like that. Partly, I suspect, because of the grimness of being a candidate this time round, but also- what doors is it going to open in the decade to come?
With people like Cameron, Sunak and (possibly) Starmer going from new MPs to Prime Minister in under a decade, and parliamentary careers being over and done in the time that used to be taken just becoming a Cabinet Minister, do ambitious people now have the stamina to come in at a time when a lengthy period out of office looks likely?
People like Blair and Brown came in in 1983, not exactly a grand time for the party, but a decade and more of grind got them to the top for a long period.
Did they expect it would take that long? Surely not, but they didn't jump ship along the way - whereas quite a few first timers from 2019 are fleeing for the Tories.
I think we have to accept that the game is up for the Conservative Party. As it is for Les Republicans in France, the Italian and Dutch Christian Democrats. Or the French or Greek Socialists. Parties eventually run out of road, and cease to speak for anyone other than careerists.
Parties can be re-invented and it might be easier to do so in opposition. The Conservative party has survived for a very long time so I wouldn't be issuing the last rights just yet.
Matthew Goodwin (calm down) makes the point that among the few conservative young people he knows, none associates with the Conservative party.
Is it actually possible we may see seats without a Tory candidate?
Doubt it - enough people who can be prevailed upon. There is a risk, though, of inadequately vetted candidates.
Little risk of any of them winning though.
No. But a fairly high chance of causing embarrassment in the campaign. I mean, you get it with vetted candidates but, "Party forced to distance itself from candidate who told pensioner to fuck off to Dignitas on Twitter" is always sub-optimal even if the candidate won't win. And it's riskier with hasty selections.
If Reform really does overtake the Tories in the polls, they could see a lot of defections.
Any poll change as dramatic as that that would be a big media story.
So am I right in saying, if anyone is thinking about doing it, they pretty much have to do it by Friday? And that Saturday onwards it would say 'Conservative' on their ballot paper regardless - making a defection nigh on impossible, unless they say they would join with Farage's after any election and hope that Voters figure out the difference?
Re David Duguid, i dont know enough about his state of health to have a firm opinion but to those more knowledgable is there an aspect of 'duty of care' to this?
Will historians write that having covid parties in Downing Street while the Queen mourned alone at her husband's funeral destroyed the once mighty Conservative Party?
Inevitably they will, despite the reality that it was defending a no-name scoundrel with an ironic name that got 'em.
Tonight the LibDems put out a PPB all about compassion. Caring for people who are disabled and ill. Tonight - the Tories deselect David Duguid as candidate in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East - over the protest from his local association https://www.facebook.com/DavidDuguidMP
Pity all the Conservative leaflets so far have been branded with his name and face with barely a mention of the party Now what?
At least one local party member has just publicly quit the party in protest., People calling for Reform to adopt him.
Ha. He won't stand for Reform.
Will his voters bother turning out whoever the national party decide to parachute in?
Depends whom they have in mind. This throws it open.
I've been openly wondering for days on here who's best placed to unseat Duguid. In all my blinkered foolishness, I never once considered the Conservative and Unionist Party was the correct answer.
I'm surprised you're surprised.
The Conservative and Unionist Party is unseating hundreds of Tory MPs this election. Only more directly with Duguid.
If Reform really does overtake the Tories in the polls, they could see a lot of defections.
Any poll change as dramatic as that that would be a big media story.
So am I right in saying, if anyone is thinking about doing it, they pretty much have to do it by Friday? And that Saturday onwards it would say 'Conservative' on their ballot paper regardless - making a defection nigh on impossible, unless they say they would join with Farage's after any election and hope that Voters figure out the difference?
Yes. And jumping ship immediately after Friday might be considered electoral fraud, putting in a nomination under false pretences
Tonight the LibDems put out a PPB all about compassion. Caring for people who are disabled and ill. Tonight - the Tories deselect David Duguid as candidate in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East - over the protest from his local association https://www.facebook.com/DavidDuguidMP
Pity all the Conservative leaflets so far have been branded with his name and face with barely a mention of the party Now what?
Now they lose the seat?
Could be. This seat has been looking lean-Con for a while. If this proves highly disruptive (and from what Rochdale says about people resigning or calling for Reform, it might yet) then it's open for someone else. But there's a month of campaigning still. They could steady this and retain enough votes.
I’ve been out this evening and I have to say the treatment of David Duguid utterly disgusts me. They should have given him more dignity and certainly more respect. It is an appalling way to behave to dump a person recovery from a medical issue at the 11th hour. Shame on whoever did that. Shame.
In other news, I'm going to call it that the Trump conviction has made no difference whatsoever to the polls in the US. Of course, he hasn't been sentenced yet, but I doubt that will make a difference unless he's jailed.
Tonight the LibDems put out a PPB all about compassion. Caring for people who are disabled and ill. Tonight - the Tories deselect David Duguid as candidate in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East - over the protest from his local association https://www.facebook.com/DavidDuguidMP
Pity all the Conservative leaflets so far have been branded with his name and face with barely a mention of the party Now what?
At least one local party member has just publicly quit the party in protest., People calling for Reform to adopt him.
Ha. He won't stand for Reform.
Will his voters bother turning out whoever the national party decide to parachute in?
Depends whom they have in mind. This throws it open.
I've been openly wondering for days on here who's best placed to unseat Duguid. In all my blinkered foolishness, I never once considered the Conservative and Unionist Party was the correct answer.
Jeremy Hunt speaks up and it's like a breath of fresh air The evidence of Britain is that elections are always won from the centre ground and I think in a two-party system that will always be the case. We’ll always be a broad church, and I think that’s a good thing.
There it is. The Conservative Party is still in there somewhere. They missed a trick in not making him leader. Too late now, just another of history's "what if"s.
Trouble is that the Lib Dems have often tried being the centre party. It's not won them any elections. You need a large base of voters to win elections. Being on the centre won't guarantee you that.
The LD's have always done best electorally, since the 1990's, when they have been seen to be slightly to the left of Labour, a lesson they will probably have to relearn all over again under Starmer, and challenging any of his more authoritarian policies, as they did under Blair.
Davey will have to shift his stance a little, but that he's surprised me on the upside in this election so far.
That was before the Greens though - LDs tried it in 2019 and lost their leader! The space is a liberal centre-right party if the tories go as cuckoo as it expected.
Is it true, that Boris Buses are being taken off the streets of London? Wrath of Khan versus BoJo?
Perhaps the fleet can be sold to Santo Domingo?
Yep, they're now some of the oldest buses in the fleet these days - the average age of a bus in London is about 5 years, and they use older hybrid powertrains rather than fully electric.
Most retired London buses get cascaded out to regional bus companies who don't need to work them quite as hard, but the Boris Buses might be trickier to do that with since they were built to a such a narrowly London-specific spec that won't work elsewhere (they've got a third door at the back, for example).
What was stupid about killing the orders, was that they were built properly (for a change) in the U.K.
The hybrid power train was designed to be upgradable to fully electric, when batteries got cheaper.
They were introduced to reduce emissions (especially particulates) as a major part of their design.
The “skate” - wheels, basic frame and power train were designed to be applicable to a range of bus designs.
I’ve been out this evening and I have to say the treatment of David Duguid utterly disgusts me. They should have given him more dignity and certainly more respect. It is an appalling way to behave to dump a person recovery from a medical issue at the 11th hour. Shame on whoever did that. Shame.
I'm intrigued to see what reason is/has been given. If it's because he's been ill then yes, wholly agree. But there have been some murmurings about his ties to BP and potential conflicts of interests. I can't say I followed it much (something to do with a family member's shares??) so I've no idea whether that's involved.
Re David Duguid, i dont know enough about his state of health to have a firm opinion but to those more knowledgable is there an aspect of 'duty of care' to this?
I'm in no position to make a call on this. What I know is that he has been seriously ill in hospital but is now recovering. He posted that he is on a rehab ward undergoing physiotherapy.
He felt that he was able to serve, his association selected him, and that was that. And now 48 hours before the deadline they have thrown him off the ticket.
I think we have to accept that the game is up for the Conservative Party. As it is for Les Republicans in France, the Italian and Dutch Christian Democrats. Or the French or Greek Socialists. Parties eventually run out of road, and cease to speak for anyone other than careerists.
They are a very old political party all things considered. Nearly 200 years by some measures.
If they go belly up will the mantle of Tory be passed to a new party?
I think Farage has just left it too late. The debates are set now and candidate selections are about to expire. Also, FPTP protects the Conservatives a bit- this time.
Tonight the LibDems put out a PPB all about compassion. Caring for people who are disabled and ill. Tonight - the Tories deselect David Duguid as candidate in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East - over the protest from his local association https://www.facebook.com/DavidDuguidMP
Pity all the Conservative leaflets so far have been branded with his name and face with barely a mention of the party Now what?
Now they lose the seat?
Could be. This seat has been looking lean-Con for a while. If this proves highly disruptive (and from what Rochdale says about people resigning or calling for Reform, it might yet) then it's open for someone else. But there's a month of campaigning still. They could steady this and retain enough votes.
I think there's just such incentive for any malcontented Tories to go for Reform that even the small personal vote of a local MP will be sufficient to cost them in such a tight area as Scotland.
I think we have to accept that the game is up for the Conservative Party. As it is for Les Republicans in France, the Italian and Dutch Christian Democrats. Or the French or Greek Socialists. Parties eventually run out of road, and cease to speak for anyone other than careerists.
Parties can be re-invented and it might be easier to do so in opposition. The Conservative party has survived for a very long time so I wouldn't be issuing the last rights just yet.
Matthew Goodwin (calm down) makes the point that among the few conservative young people he knows, none associates with the Conservative party.
Hunt is right about elections being won from the centre ground but the development of Reform is causing the Tories a major problem because they are losing so much of their hinterland to the right of centre that they should be able to rely on.
The problem Reform and UKIP before them have is that there is never going to be a majority for them or even a large enough minority to get meaningful representation. All they are going to do is screw the Tories, a bit like so many Alba members are keen to screw the SNP in the hope that something better comes out of the wreckage.
It may be that after 10 years or so of opposition the lesson will be learned that the centre right and the right need to hang in together if they want to win or influence the direction of this country. Maybe. But it is going to take quite a while.
I think we have to accept that the game is up for the Conservative Party. As it is for Les Republicans in France, the Italian and Dutch Christian Democrats. Or the French or Greek Socialists. Parties eventually run out of road, and cease to speak for anyone other than careerists.
Parties can be re-invented and it might be easier to do so in opposition. The Conservative party has survived for a very long time so I wouldn't be issuing the last rights just yet.
Matthew Goodwin (calm down) makes the point that among the few conservative young people he knows, none associates with the Conservative party.
I know a lot of conservative young people - our entire living memory has been the tories messing up the economy, out of control immigration, even more out of control house and rental prices, tripling of uni fees, locking us away for 2 years and national service! Is it any wonder we can't wait until they're booted out?
I think we have to accept that the game is up for the Conservative Party. As it is for Les Republicans in France, the Italian and Dutch Christian Democrats. Or the French or Greek Socialists. Parties eventually run out of road, and cease to speak for anyone other than careerists.
They're really testing the if you stand for nothing you will fall for nothing premise.
Everyone has their own special reason to hate them and their own special reason to believe whatever they want of SKS.
Labour barely factor in this election except as an ejection mechanism.
Jeremy Hunt speaks up and it's like a breath of fresh air The evidence of Britain is that elections are always won from the centre ground and I think in a two-party system that will always be the case. We’ll always be a broad church, and I think that’s a good thing.
There it is. The Conservative Party is still in there somewhere. They missed a trick in not making him leader. Too late now, just another of history's "what if"s.
Trouble is that the Lib Dems have often tried being the centre party. It's not won them any elections. You need a large base of voters to win elections. Being on the centre won't guarantee you that.
The LD's have always done best electorally, since the 1990's, when they have been seen to be slightly to the left of Labour, a lesson they will probably have to relearn all over again under Starmer, and challenging any of his more authoritarian policies, as they did under Blair.
Davey will have to shift his stance a little, but that he's surprised me on the upside in this election so far.
That was before the Greens though - LDs tried it in 2019 and lost their leader! The space is a liberal centre-right party if the tories go as cuckoo as it expected.
Hm, I'm not sure I'd regard the 2019 campaign as a centre-left one, from my point of view, at least not compared to the 2000-2010 ones. AFAIK the main challenging issue was Brexit, but the earlier LD's campaigned particularly on civil liberties issues combined with a moderately centre-left social programme.
I do think that's where their future lies as a distinctive party, myself. Classic liberalism on ancient rights and liberties, and dipping their toes into social liberalism. I do think some of their MP's might join a new centre-right grouping if the Tories merge with Reform, though.
Re David Duguid, i dont know enough about his state of health to have a firm opinion but to those more knowledgable is there an aspect of 'duty of care' to this?
I'm in no position to make a call on this. What I know is that he has been seriously ill in hospital but is now recovering. He posted that he is on a rehab ward undergoing physiotherapy.
He felt that he was able to serve, his association selected him, and that was that. And now 48 hours before the deadline they have thrown him off the ticket.
Very poorly handled, regardless. Best of luck and health to him.
Tonight the LibDems put out a PPB all about compassion. Caring for people who are disabled and ill. Tonight - the Tories deselect David Duguid as candidate in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East - over the protest from his local association https://www.facebook.com/DavidDuguidMP
Pity all the Conservative leaflets so far have been branded with his name and face with barely a mention of the party Now what?
Now they lose the seat?
Could be. This seat has been looking lean-Con for a while. If this proves highly disruptive (and from what Rochdale says about people resigning or calling for Reform, it might yet) then it's open for someone else. But there's a month of campaigning still. They could steady this and retain enough votes.
I think there's just such incentive for any malcontented Tories to go for Reform that even the small personal vote of a local MP will be sufficient to cost them in such a tight area as Scotland.
I don't know. I don't think Duguid is that sort. I'd be extremely surprised if he turns on the Tories like that. Likelier he'll focus on himself and come out to shore up the Tory candidate in a couple of weeks in a show of magnanimous unity.
I think we have to accept that the game is up for the Conservative Party. As it is for Les Republicans in France, the Italian and Dutch Christian Democrats. Or the French or Greek Socialists. Parties eventually run out of road, and cease to speak for anyone other than careerists.
They are a very old political party all things considered. Nearly 200 years by some measures.
If they go belly up will the mantle of Tory be passed to a new party?
I think Farage has just left it too late. The debates are set now and candidate selections are about to expire. Also, FPTP protects the Conservatives a bit- this time.
My suspicion was that his initial claim not to be standing was a lie designed to create maximum drama when he then 'changed' his mind, but perhaps it was genuine and it may cost Reform a few high profile defections who in the intervening days locked down a place with the Tories in weary resignation.
Not that he's the be all and end all of the threat of Reform to the Tories, but it is on a different level with the attention he would get over Tice.
Hmmm EC may not be much use for that sort of 'out there' result but gives a LAbour majority of 76 with Reform as the Official Opposition on 212. Tories on 2 seats, both in Scotland.
Tonight the LibDems put out a PPB all about compassion. Caring for people who are disabled and ill. Tonight - the Tories deselect David Duguid as candidate in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East - over the protest from his local association https://www.facebook.com/DavidDuguidMP
Pity all the Conservative leaflets so far have been branded with his name and face with barely a mention of the party Now what?
Now they lose the seat?
Could be. This seat has been looking lean-Con for a while. If this proves highly disruptive (and from what Rochdale says about people resigning or calling for Reform, it might yet) then it's open for someone else. But there's a month of campaigning still. They could steady this and retain enough votes.
I think there's just such incentive for any malcontented Tories to go for Reform that even the small personal vote of a local MP will be sufficient to cost them in such a tight area as Scotland.
I don't know. I don't think Duguid is that sort. I'd be extremely surprised if he turns on the Tories like that. Likelier he'll focus on himself and come out to shore up the Tory candidate in a couple of weeks in a show of magnanimous unity.
I don't even know if we will get a Reform candidate....
Will historians write that having covid parties in Downing Street while the Queen mourned alone at her husband's funeral destroyed the once mighty Conservative Party?
Inevitably they will, despite the reality that it was defending a no-name scoundrel with an ironic name that got 'em.
Not as colourful a story to tell for a historian. But anyway the Pincher affair is not what got the public boiling with anger.
Britain. Play by the rules. Fair play.
Johnson broke that and quite possibly he has destroyed his party as a consequence.
I think we have to accept that the game is up for the Conservative Party. As it is for Les Republicans in France, the Italian and Dutch Christian Democrats. Or the French or Greek Socialists. Parties eventually run out of road, and cease to speak for anyone other than careerists.
Parties can be re-invented and it might be easier to do so in opposition. The Conservative party has survived for a very long time so I wouldn't be issuing the last rights just yet.
Matthew Goodwin (calm down) makes the point that among the few conservative young people he knows, none associates with the Conservative party.
Hunt is right about elections being won from the centre ground but the development of Reform is causing the Tories a major problem because they are losing so much of their hinterland to the right of centre that they should be able to rely on.
The problem Reform and UKIP before them have is that there is never going to be a majority for them or even a large enough minority to get meaningful representation. All they are going to do is screw the Tories, a bit like so many Alba members are keen to screw the SNP in the hope that something better comes out of the wreckage.
It may be that after 10 years or so of opposition the lesson will be learned that the centre right and the right need to hang in together if they want to win or influence the direction of this country. Maybe. But it is going to take quite a while.
Sorry but that reeks of the entitlement that one gets from Labour/Tory people. I've no idea what a future conservative party might look like but I wouldn't assume it will be the Tories. They are staring at an historically low vote share. Calls for electoral reform may grown on the right. We have seen right of centre politics being re-imagined across the western world recently. Everything will be up in the air.
Re David Duguid, i dont know enough about his state of health to have a firm opinion but to those more knowledgable is there an aspect of 'duty of care' to this?
He's had some kind of spine infection, and pneumonia. This is public knowledge, shared by Duguid himself, so no problems talking about it. I don't know his state other than I got a vague sense he was out of the worst of it. I can't be sure. He seems surprised and disappointed by it, which makes me think something else is going on. A candidate they want to parachute in or a brewing scandal around Duguid himself.
I think we have to accept that the game is up for the Conservative Party. As it is for Les Republicans in France, the Italian and Dutch Christian Democrats. Or the French or Greek Socialists. Parties eventually run out of road, and cease to speak for anyone other than careerists.
Parties can be re-invented and it might be easier to do so in opposition. The Conservative party has survived for a very long time so I wouldn't be issuing the last rights just yet.
Matthew Goodwin (calm down) makes the point that among the few conservative young people he knows, none associates with the Conservative party.
Apart from rites not rights, I agree. As a socialist, I regard tales of the Tory Party's demise as implausible. We are quite a conservative (small c) country, and both Labour and Tory parties have survived multiple tales of their demise.
The Labour Party, phoenix-like, rose from the ashes after 1983, and again after 2019, The Tory Party will do the same, after some self-reflection.
I've been bullish on Labour in this election for years but I thoroughly disagree with the notion that they are guaranteed multiple election victories.
For many reasons, the coming years could be fractious. For one thing, we could easily have all the opposition parties post election demanding PR - including a potential breakaway left faction of Labour, for instance.
Will historians write that having covid parties in Downing Street while the Queen mourned alone at her husband's funeral destroyed the once mighty Conservative Party?
Inevitably they will, despite the reality that it was defending a no-name scoundrel with an ironic name that got 'em.
Not as colourful a story to tell for a historian. But anyway the Pincher affair is not what got the public boiling with anger.
Britain. Play by the rules. Fair play.
Johnson broke that and quite possibly he has destroyed his party as a consequence.
Yep. Johnson turned his party into a total Brexit, everything else came from that toxin.
Tonight the LibDems put out a PPB all about compassion. Caring for people who are disabled and ill. Tonight - the Tories deselect David Duguid as candidate in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East - over the protest from his local association https://www.facebook.com/DavidDuguidMP
Pity all the Conservative leaflets so far have been branded with his name and face with barely a mention of the party Now what?
Now they lose the seat?
Could be. This seat has been looking lean-Con for a while. If this proves highly disruptive (and from what Rochdale says about people resigning or calling for Reform, it might yet) then it's open for someone else. But there's a month of campaigning still. They could steady this and retain enough votes.
I think there's just such incentive for any malcontented Tories to go for Reform that even the small personal vote of a local MP will be sufficient to cost them in such a tight area as Scotland.
I don't know. I don't think Duguid is that sort. I'd be extremely surprised if he turns on the Tories like that. Likelier he'll focus on himself and come out to shore up the Tory candidate in a couple of weeks in a show of magnanimous unity.
I don't even know if we will get a Reform candidate....
I’ve been out this evening and I have to say the treatment of David Duguid utterly disgusts me. They should have given him more dignity and certainly more respect. It is an appalling way to behave to dump a person recovery from a medical issue at the 11th hour. Shame on whoever did that. Shame.
I'm intrigued to see what reason is/has been given. If it's because he's been ill then yes, wholly agree. But there have been some murmurings about his ties to BP and potential conflicts of interests. I can't say I followed it much (something to do with a family member's shares??) so I've no idea whether that's involved.
Whatever reason you think you might have you talk to the individual first. You might end up at the same place in the end but how you do things is important. I didn’t think it was a good idea to try to stand from a hospital bed, but it was his decision and if his local colleagues disagreed they should have sought to change his position. If it is something else driving this they should still have talked to him because now they look like utter shits.
Re David Duguid, i dont know enough about his state of health to have a firm opinion but to those more knowledgable is there an aspect of 'duty of care' to this?
I'm in no position to make a call on this. What I know is that he has been seriously ill in hospital but is now recovering. He posted that he is on a rehab ward undergoing physiotherapy.
He felt that he was able to serve, his association selected him, and that was that. And now 48 hours before the deadline they have thrown him off the ticket.
"A spokesperson for the Scottish Tories said: "David Duguid is unfortunately unable to stand in this election. "
The other question would be where the centre-right Tories would go. Neither Starmer's vision of a particular kind of New Labour, nor the Lib Dems, are actually a natural fit.
They'd really need a new party or political space, I think, and where does the organisation or profile for that come from.
I would divide the electorate into 4 main groups:
1) Right wing economics, socially liberal - the metropolitan elite, Cameroons, Blairites etc - Times and FT readers 2) Right wing economics, socially conservative - shire Tories - Mail and Telegraph readers 3) Left wing economics, socially liberal - Corbynites, Greenies - Guardian readers 4) Left wing economics, socially conservative - Red Wallers - Mirror and Sun readers
Now traditionally the divide has been on economics - groups 1&2 for Con vs. 3&4 for Lab
What we saw with the Brexit debate and has happened in the US is a new alignment on cultural issues 1&3 vs. 2&4. If we continue down this path then that may well lead to a complete realignment and break both main parties. We could then end up with a situation where SW Norfolk and Sunderland Central vote for a socially conservative party, while Maidenhead and Hackney N vote for a socially liberal party.
Your centre right Tories then end up like the Country Club republicans in the US and have to decide whether culture or economics is more important.
Is it true, that Boris Buses are being taken off the streets of London? Wrath of Khan versus BoJo?
Perhaps the fleet can be sold to Santo Domingo?
Yep, they're now some of the oldest buses in the fleet these days - the average age of a bus in London is about 5 years, and they use older hybrid powertrains rather than fully electric.
Most retired London buses get cascaded out to regional bus companies who don't need to work them quite as hard, but the Boris Buses might be trickier to do that with since they were built to a such a narrowly London-specific spec that won't work elsewhere (they've got a third door at the back, for example).
What was stupid about killing the orders, was that they were built properly (for a change) in the U.K.
The hybrid power train was designed to be upgradable to fully electric, when batteries got cheaper.
They were introduced to reduce emissions (especially particulates) as a major part of their design.
The “skate” - wheels, basic frame and power train were designed to be applicable to a range of bus designs.
Wrightbus offered a non-London variant with only two doors and one staircase, but there weren't many takers (I think all the ones built ended up in London anyway). Their rather more successful Gemini 3 uses a lot of the New Routemaster design, but is based on a Volvo chassis.
Since being rescued from bankruptcy, I think they're concentrating on hydrogen buses these days.
Basically, it seems that it was too expensive for any non-London operators.
Tonight the LibDems put out a PPB all about compassion. Caring for people who are disabled and ill. Tonight - the Tories deselect David Duguid as candidate in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East - over the protest from his local association https://www.facebook.com/DavidDuguidMP
Pity all the Conservative leaflets so far have been branded with his name and face with barely a mention of the party Now what?
Now they lose the seat?
Could be. This seat has been looking lean-Con for a while. If this proves highly disruptive (and from what Rochdale says about people resigning or calling for Reform, it might yet) then it's open for someone else. But there's a month of campaigning still. They could steady this and retain enough votes.
I think there's just such incentive for any malcontented Tories to go for Reform that even the small personal vote of a local MP will be sufficient to cost them in such a tight area as Scotland.
I don't know. I don't think Duguid is that sort. I'd be extremely surprised if he turns on the Tories like that. Likelier he'll focus on himself and come out to shore up the Tory candidate in a couple of weeks in a show of magnanimous unity.
I don't even know if we will get a Reform candidate....
Re David Duguid, i dont know enough about his state of health to have a firm opinion but to those more knowledgable is there an aspect of 'duty of care' to this?
He's not an employee. For better or, evidently, worse.
No idea if he could sue the SCUP - but it would take too long to get reinstated as a candidate in the lawcourts.
I’ve been out this evening and I have to say the treatment of David Duguid utterly disgusts me. They should have given him more dignity and certainly more respect. It is an appalling way to behave to dump a person recovery from a medical issue at the 11th hour. Shame on whoever did that. Shame.
I'm intrigued to see what reason is/has been given. If it's because he's been ill then yes, wholly agree. But there have been some murmurings about his ties to BP and potential conflicts of interests. I can't say I followed it much (something to do with a family member's shares??) so I've no idea whether that's involved.
Whatever reason you think you might have you talk to the individual first. You might end up at the same place in the end but how you do things is important. I didn’t think it was a good idea to try to stand from a hospital bed, but it was his decision and if his local colleagues disagreed they should have sought to change his position. If it is something else driving this they should still have talked to him because now they look like utter shits.
We don't know that they haven't spoken to him. It could be the party has a good reason to want to shift him out and he said no, so they've done it anyway. It doesn't strike me that the Tories would just bump him to one side because he's been in hospital, it doesn't pass the smell test. The Tories have been campaigning here, delivering leaflets. He's got a decent enough organisation and this seat was probably heading back to him before this. I think we're missing a piece of the puzzle here.
Richi's next big idea is harsher prison sentencing
While letting prisoners out due to overcrowding, and failing ti fund the courts for 14 years.
His team really do hate him
Harsher sentencing is a perennial favourite of those running for elections. A bit more money for criminal justice would get a lot more bang for its buck.
Re David Duguid, i dont know enough about his state of health to have a firm opinion but to those more knowledgable is there an aspect of 'duty of care' to this?
He's had some kind of spine infection, and pneumonia. This is public knowledge, shared by Duguid himself, so no problems talking about it. I don't know his state other than I got a vague sense he was out of the worst of it. I can't be sure. He seems surprised and disappointed by it, which makes me think something else is going on. A candidate they want to parachute in or a brewing scandal around Duguid himself.
I'm bracing myself for Ruth Davidson to appear
I did wonder for a moment, but peerage, though. She'd need to dump that to be credible as a candidate (whatever the law).
Re David Duguid, i dont know enough about his state of health to have a firm opinion but to those more knowledgable is there an aspect of 'duty of care' to this?
I'm in no position to make a call on this. What I know is that he has been seriously ill in hospital but is now recovering. He posted that he is on a rehab ward undergoing physiotherapy.
He felt that he was able to serve, his association selected him, and that was that. And now 48 hours before the deadline they have thrown him off the ticket.
"A spokesperson for the Scottish Tories said: "David Duguid is unfortunately unable to stand in this election. "
So, the Tories did manage to get everybody talking about tax.
Every news outlet has done a forensic analysis of how big a lie it was.
Awesome work, lads. Trebles all round...
People misremember how 2016 net/gross £350M a week trick actually played out. Bus was going round for weeks before any furore began. A great many people voted on the basis it was actually true, anda huge sun of money in the scheme of things. Some people actually took years to realise the truth behind it.
But yesterday’s 2K lie had no time at all to do its business, before it changed today into a different understanding in the publics mind. In less than 24hrs this ploy collapsed and has became universally known as dubious claim. It’s already in the minds of those fleeting observer of politics – in other words the vast majority of people – who may only hear about the story in the loosest terms, as the row about another Tory lie. Even the Clangers have already heard its dubious from the tin chicken, who by some miracle can get Chris Masons podcast in her left ear.
All the news today about it being a lie, is already far more powerful than anything the Tories can now do to convince it isn’t. It’s now the very opposite of the 2016 bus. What it is advertising when people see it now is same old Tories always lying.
It’s going to have a negative impact on the Conservative campaign unless they can back away from it.
Nah, everyone knows Labour will need to put up taxes and aren't saying where.
Every trick like this has a kernel of truth in it.
Trick. You are calling it a trick now, not a hard cold fact?
You are beginning to back away from thinking it might still work, I can sense that.
Here’s the kicker. When Sunak faces all those interviews in coming weeks, does he want to be quizzed about the 2K Lie? Does he want it to come up in interviews. Look how his 2K Lie has been successfully shredded on all the news programmes today - he’s going to have to go through that same shred, in every interview, every week - not merely the next one on one debate, when Starmer is ready and waiting for him with all these strong lines of attack. Everybody’s now ready and waiting for him.
Ignoring the Civil Service immediately called him a liar, which will always be the first thing he will have to try and spin, take just one other aspect - the SPADs who created this only got it to come up to 2K figure, because the only people they had paying tax to fill the bigged up black hole, are working families. How financially illiterate does that sound? And Rishi’s going to have that put to him, just like that, and again and again he’s going to have to admit that, yes, that bit is actually true.
The damage this can cause Sunak’s credibility and the campaign has not been thought through, has it?
Re David Duguid, i dont know enough about his state of health to have a firm opinion but to those more knowledgable is there an aspect of 'duty of care' to this?
He's had some kind of spine infection, and pneumonia. This is public knowledge, shared by Duguid himself, so no problems talking about it. I don't know his state other than I got a vague sense he was out of the worst of it. I can't be sure. He seems surprised and disappointed by it, which makes me think something else is going on. A candidate they want to parachute in or a brewing scandal around Duguid himself.
I'm bracing myself for Ruth Davidson to appear
I did wonder for a moment, but peerage, though. She'd need to dump that to be credible as a candidate (whatever the law).
Cmon, let me have this one, I'm just terrified it's HIM. Ruth, I could cope with. But jesus fucking christ, not HIM.
Tonight the LibDems put out a PPB all about compassion. Caring for people who are disabled and ill. Tonight - the Tories deselect David Duguid as candidate in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East - over the protest from his local association https://www.facebook.com/DavidDuguidMP
Pity all the Conservative leaflets so far have been branded with his name and face with barely a mention of the party Now what?
Now they lose the seat?
Could be. This seat has been looking lean-Con for a while. If this proves highly disruptive (and from what Rochdale says about people resigning or calling for Reform, it might yet) then it's open for someone else. But there's a month of campaigning still. They could steady this and retain enough votes.
I think there's just such incentive for any malcontented Tories to go for Reform that even the small personal vote of a local MP will be sufficient to cost them in such a tight area as Scotland.
I don't know. I don't think Duguid is that sort. I'd be extremely surprised if he turns on the Tories like that. Likelier he'll focus on himself and come out to shore up the Tory candidate in a couple of weeks in a show of magnanimous unity.
I don't even know if we will get a Reform candidate....
Well if the Tories don't get their papers in soon the unionist vote will just have to alight behind the next placed unionist party, the LDs.
I think we have to accept that the game is up for the Conservative Party. As it is for Les Republicans in France, the Italian and Dutch Christian Democrats. Or the French or Greek Socialists. Parties eventually run out of road, and cease to speak for anyone other than careerists.
Parties can be re-invented and it might be easier to do so in opposition. The Conservative party has survived for a very long time so I wouldn't be issuing the last rights just yet.
Matthew Goodwin (calm down) makes the point that among the few conservative young people he knows, none associates with the Conservative party.
Apart from rites not rights, I agree. As a socialist, I regard tales of the Tory Party's demise as implausible. We are quite a conservative (small c) country, and both Labour and Tory parties have survived multiple tales of their demise.
The Labour Party, phoenix-like, rose from the ashes after 1983, and again after 2019, The Tory Party will do the same, after some self-reflection.
Equally many were burying the Lib Dems after 2015 and mocking their ‘fightback’.
And yet now here we are with multiple Baxterised polls placing Team Parasail as His Majesty’s Next Opposition.
I’ve been out this evening and I have to say the treatment of David Duguid utterly disgusts me. They should have given him more dignity and certainly more respect. It is an appalling way to behave to dump a person recovery from a medical issue at the 11th hour. Shame on whoever did that. Shame.
I'm intrigued to see what reason is/has been given. If it's because he's been ill then yes, wholly agree. But there have been some murmurings about his ties to BP and potential conflicts of interests. I can't say I followed it much (something to do with a family member's shares??) so I've no idea whether that's involved.
Whatever reason you think you might have you talk to the individual first. You might end up at the same place in the end but how you do things is important. I didn’t think it was a good idea to try to stand from a hospital bed, but it was his decision and if his local colleagues disagreed they should have sought to change his position. If it is something else driving this they should still have talked to him because now they look like utter shits.
We don't know that they haven't spoken to him. It could be the party has a good reason to want to shift him out and he said no, so they've done it anyway. It doesn't strike me that the Tories would just bump him to one side because he's been in hospital, it doesn't pass the smell test. The Tories have been campaigning here, delivering leaflets. He's got a decent enough organisation and this seat was probably heading back to him before this. I think we're missing a piece of the puzzle here.
Possibly, but on the evidence we have it looks pretty crappy behaviour.
Re David Duguid, i dont know enough about his state of health to have a firm opinion but to those more knowledgable is there an aspect of 'duty of care' to this?
He's had some kind of spine infection, and pneumonia. This is public knowledge, shared by Duguid himself, so no problems talking about it. I don't know his state other than I got a vague sense he was out of the worst of it. I can't be sure. He seems surprised and disappointed by it, which makes me think something else is going on. A candidate they want to parachute in or a brewing scandal around Duguid himself.
I'm bracing myself for Ruth Davidson to appear
I did wonder for a moment, but peerage, though. She'd need to dump that to be credible as a candidate (whatever the law).
Cmon, let me have this one, I'm just terrified it's HIM. Ruth, I could cope with. But jesus fucking christ, not HIM.
There was that BP shares affair but it was months ago and all he got was a finger-tap on the wrist, so I can't believe it's that.
The other question would be where the centre-right Tories would go. Neither Starmer's vision of a particular kind of New Labour, nor the Lib Dems, are actually a natural fit.
They'd really need a new party or political space, I think, and where does the organisation or profile for that come from.
I would divide the electorate into 4 main groups:
1) Right wing economics, socially liberal - the metropolitan elite, Cameroons, Blairites etc - Times and FT readers 2) Right wing economics, socially conservative - shire Tories - Mail and Telegraph readers 3) Left wing economics, socially liberal - Corbynites, Greenies - Guardian readers 4) Left wing economics, socially conservative - Red Wallers - Mirror and Sun readers
Now traditionally the divide has been on economics - groups 1&2 for Con vs. 3&4 for Lab
What we saw with the Brexit debate and has happened in the US is a new alignment on cultural issues 1&3 vs. 2&4. If we continue down this path then that may well lead to a complete realignment and break both main parties. We could then end up with a situation where SW Norfolk and Sunderland Central vote for a socially conservative party, while Maidenhead and Hackney N vote for a socially liberal party.
Your centre right Tories then end up like the Country Club republicans in the US and have to decide whether culture or economics is more important.
Re David Duguid, i dont know enough about his state of health to have a firm opinion but to those more knowledgable is there an aspect of 'duty of care' to this?
He's had some kind of spine infection, and pneumonia. This is public knowledge, shared by Duguid himself, so no problems talking about it. I don't know his state other than I got a vague sense he was out of the worst of it. I can't be sure. He seems surprised and disappointed by it, which makes me think something else is going on. A candidate they want to parachute in or a brewing scandal around Duguid himself.
I'm bracing myself for Ruth Davidson to appear
I did wonder for a moment, but peerage, though. She'd need to dump that to be credible as a candidate (whatever the law).
Cmon, let me have this one, I'm just terrified it's HIM. Ruth, I could cope with. But jesus fucking christ, not HIM.
Tonight the LibDems put out a PPB all about compassion. Caring for people who are disabled and ill. Tonight - the Tories deselect David Duguid as candidate in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East - over the protest from his local association https://www.facebook.com/DavidDuguidMP
Pity all the Conservative leaflets so far have been branded with his name and face with barely a mention of the party Now what?
Now they lose the seat?
Could be. This seat has been looking lean-Con for a while. If this proves highly disruptive (and from what Rochdale says about people resigning or calling for Reform, it might yet) then it's open for someone else. But there's a month of campaigning still. They could steady this and retain enough votes.
I think there's just such incentive for any malcontented Tories to go for Reform that even the small personal vote of a local MP will be sufficient to cost them in such a tight area as Scotland.
I don't know. I don't think Duguid is that sort. I'd be extremely surprised if he turns on the Tories like that. Likelier he'll focus on himself and come out to shore up the Tory candidate in a couple of weeks in a show of magnanimous unity.
I don't even know if we will get a Reform candidate....
Well if the Tories don't get their papers in soon the unionist vote will just have to alight behind the next placed unionist party, the LDs.
The other question would be where the centre-right Tories would go. Neither Starmer's vision of a particular kind of New Labour, nor the Lib Dems, are actually a natural fit.
They'd really need a new party or political space, I think, and where does the organisation or profile for that come from.
I would divide the electorate into 4 main groups:
1) Right wing economics, socially liberal - the metropolitan elite, Cameroons, Blairites etc - Times and FT readers 2) Right wing economics, socially conservative - shire Tories - Mail and Telegraph readers 3) Left wing economics, socially liberal - Corbynites, Greenies - Guardian readers 4) Left wing economics, socially conservative - Red Wallers - Mirror and Sun readers
Now traditionally the divide has been on economics - groups 1&2 for Con vs. 3&4 for Lab
What we saw with the Brexit debate and has happened in the US is a new alignment on cultural issues 1&3 vs. 2&4. If we continue down this path then that may well lead to a complete realignment and break both main parties. We could then end up with a situation where SW Norfolk and Sunderland Central vote for a socially conservative party, while Maidenhead and Hackney N vote for a socially liberal party.
Your centre right Tories then end up like the Country Club republicans in the US and have to decide whether culture or economics is more important.
I think we have to accept that the game is up for the Conservative Party. As it is for Les Republicans in France, the Italian and Dutch Christian Democrats. Or the French or Greek Socialists. Parties eventually run out of road, and cease to speak for anyone other than careerists.
They are a very old political party all things considered. Nearly 200 years by some measures.
If they go belly up will the mantle of Tory be passed to a new party?
I think Farage has just left it too late. The debates are set now and candidate selections are about to expire. Also, FPTP protects the Conservatives a bit- this time.
Yes. Imagine Farage had re-entered the fray not long after Truss had been toppled - which was when Reform started to rise in the polls. He'd have had time to attract people to Reform, to create an organisation, to fight a couple of rounds of local elections, to do better in the by-elections, to put pressure on the Tories and perhaps attract defections. Things could be very different.
"Nigel Farage has driven the Tories to a state of near-total psychological collapse We could be just days away from a tipping point in the polls when Reform overtakes the Conservatives
The “family home tax guarantee” is made up of new Tory pledges in three specific areas of property tax.
The first is promising that more council tax bands, “expensive” council tax revaluations and council tax discounts will not be implemented under a Tory government.
The second is that the party will maintain private residence relief, where people do not pay capital gains tax on their main home when it is sold.
The third is that the Tories will not increase the rate or level of stamp duty.
It clear the Tory tactic is to keep shifting on every area that is / can be taxed and promising no increases and then challenge Labour to say no they wouldn't raise that either. Obviously it is dishonest as both parties are going to have to raise taxes somewhere.
Re David Duguid, i dont know enough about his state of health to have a firm opinion but to those more knowledgable is there an aspect of 'duty of care' to this?
He's had some kind of spine infection, and pneumonia. This is public knowledge, shared by Duguid himself, so no problems talking about it. I don't know his state other than I got a vague sense he was out of the worst of it. I can't be sure. He seems surprised and disappointed by it, which makes me think something else is going on. A candidate they want to parachute in or a brewing scandal around Duguid himself.
I'm bracing myself for Ruth Davidson to appear
I did wonder for a moment, but peerage, though. She'd need to dump that to be credible as a candidate (whatever the law).
Cmon, let me have this one, I'm just terrified it's HIM. Ruth, I could cope with. But jesus fucking christ, not HIM.
The other question would be where the centre-right Tories would go. Neither Starmer's vision of a particular kind of New Labour, nor the Lib Dems, are actually a natural fit.
They'd really need a new party or political space, I think, and where does the organisation or profile for that come from.
The (80s) SDP is how you do it. Form a new breakaway party and enter into a marriage of convenience with the LibDems.
Then pray that Starmer doesn’t embark on a patriotic war in the Falklands.
I’ve been out this evening and I have to say the treatment of David Duguid utterly disgusts me. They should have given him more dignity and certainly more respect. It is an appalling way to behave to dump a person recovery from a medical issue at the 11th hour. Shame on whoever did that. Shame.
I'm intrigued to see what reason is/has been given. If it's because he's been ill then yes, wholly agree. But there have been some murmurings about his ties to BP and potential conflicts of interests. I can't say I followed it much (something to do with a family member's shares??) so I've no idea whether that's involved.
Whatever reason you think you might have you talk to the individual first. You might end up at the same place in the end but how you do things is important. I didn’t think it was a good idea to try to stand from a hospital bed, but it was his decision and if his local colleagues disagreed they should have sought to change his position. If it is something else driving this they should still have talked to him because now they look like utter shits.
We don't know that they haven't spoken to him. It could be the party has a good reason to want to shift him out and he said no, so they've done it anyway. It doesn't strike me that the Tories would just bump him to one side because he's been in hospital, it doesn't pass the smell test. The Tories have been campaigning here, delivering leaflets. He's got a decent enough organisation and this seat was probably heading back to him before this. I think we're missing a piece of the puzzle here.
Possibly, but on the evidence we have it looks pretty crappy behaviour.
Verging on disability discrimination, though whether it counts as that is a legal rather than moral issue in terms of definition (ie if he genuinely could not do the job of campaigning).
But he's not a SCUP employee so they would just say tough (to quote one of our Tories).
The other question would be where the centre-right Tories would go. Neither Starmer's vision of a particular kind of New Labour, nor the Lib Dems, are actually a natural fit.
They'd really need a new party or political space, I think, and where does the organisation or profile for that come from.
The (80s) SDP is how you do it. Form a new breakaway party and enter into a marriage of convenience with the LibDems.
Then pray that Starmer doesn’t embark on a patriotic war in the Falklands.
Anyone know if the Liberal Unionist brand is still available? Harder part might be finding an unused bit of the visible spectrum.
Enough. Hire a death squad from El Salvador and Kill. Them. All
Good job Defra didnt underestimate the number of these dogs by a factor of 7 in the UK....and come up with a policy that does next to nothing to reduce the mere 70k of them.
I think we have to accept that the game is up for the Conservative Party. As it is for Les Republicans in France, the Italian and Dutch Christian Democrats. Or the French or Greek Socialists. Parties eventually run out of road, and cease to speak for anyone other than careerists.
They are a very old political party all things considered. Nearly 200 years by some measures.
If they go belly up will the mantle of Tory be passed to a new party?
I think Farage has just left it too late. The debates are set now and candidate selections are about to expire. Also, FPTP protects the Conservatives a bit- this time.
Yes. Imagine Farage had re-entered the fray not long after Truss had been toppled - which was when Reform started to rise in the polls. He'd have had time to attract people to Reform, to create an organisation, to fight a couple of rounds of local elections, to do better in the by-elections, to put pressure on the Tories and perhaps attract defections. Things could be very different.
He likes money, he likes action, he likes being the maverick outsider. He likes offering simple solutions to complex problems.
He doesn’t want the hard work, boredom and scrutiny of being an actual politician.
This - along with FPTP - are why Reform are unlikely to supplant the Cons.
Re David Duguid, i dont know enough about his state of health to have a firm opinion but to those more knowledgable is there an aspect of 'duty of care' to this?
He's had some kind of spine infection, and pneumonia. This is public knowledge, shared by Duguid himself, so no problems talking about it. I don't know his state other than I got a vague sense he was out of the worst of it. I can't be sure. He seems surprised and disappointed by it, which makes me think something else is going on. A candidate they want to parachute in or a brewing scandal around Duguid himself.
I'm bracing myself for Ruth Davidson to appear
I did wonder for a moment, but peerage, though. She'd need to dump that to be credible as a candidate (whatever the law).
Cmon, let me have this one, I'm just terrified it's HIM. Ruth, I could cope with. But jesus fucking christ, not HIM.
Tonight the LibDems put out a PPB all about compassion. Caring for people who are disabled and ill. Tonight - the Tories deselect David Duguid as candidate in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East - over the protest from his local association https://www.facebook.com/DavidDuguidMP
Pity all the Conservative leaflets so far have been branded with his name and face with barely a mention of the party Now what?
Now they lose the seat?
Could be. This seat has been looking lean-Con for a while. If this proves highly disruptive (and from what Rochdale says about people resigning or calling for Reform, it might yet) then it's open for someone else. But there's a month of campaigning still. They could steady this and retain enough votes.
I think there's just such incentive for any malcontented Tories to go for Reform that even the small personal vote of a local MP will be sufficient to cost them in such a tight area as Scotland.
I don't know. I don't think Duguid is that sort. I'd be extremely surprised if he turns on the Tories like that. Likelier he'll focus on himself and come out to shore up the Tory candidate in a couple of weeks in a show of magnanimous unity.
I don't even know if we will get a Reform candidate....
Well if the Tories don't get their papers in soon the unionist vote will just have to alight behind the next placed unionist party, the LDs.
Or Reform. I mean, if the Tories won last time ...
I think we have to accept that the game is up for the Conservative Party. As it is for Les Republicans in France, the Italian and Dutch Christian Democrats. Or the French or Greek Socialists. Parties eventually run out of road, and cease to speak for anyone other than careerists.
Parties can be re-invented and it might be easier to do so in opposition. The Conservative party has survived for a very long time so I wouldn't be issuing the last rights just yet.
Matthew Goodwin (calm down) makes the point that among the few conservative young people he knows, none associates with the Conservative party.
Hunt is right about elections being won from the centre ground but the development of Reform is causing the Tories a major problem because they are losing so much of their hinterland to the right of centre that they should be able to rely on.
The problem Reform and UKIP before them have is that there is never going to be a majority for them or even a large enough minority to get meaningful representation. All they are going to do is screw the Tories, a bit like so many Alba members are keen to screw the SNP in the hope that something better comes out of the wreckage.
It may be that after 10 years or so of opposition the lesson will be learned that the centre right and the right need to hang in together if they want to win or influence the direction of this country. Maybe. But it is going to take quite a while.
I don’t really think this is true. The majority of those polled align with Reformite views on immigration. Many would, if comparing manifestos, probably like a lot of what Reform has to say - including many of those currently polling in favour of Labour. What's been keeping parties like on the fringes is the fact that they've been out of contention for seats. If they overtake the Tories, that's not the case any more.
Comments
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/05/general-election-latest-news-rishi-sunak-keir-starmer/
Labour: 39%
Reform: 31%
Lib Dems: 10%
Tories: 10%
Others: 10%
Any poll change as dramatic as that that would be a big media story.
If they go belly up will the mantle of Tory be passed to a new party?
Obviously if Cons somehow got back in then taxes would go up too (most likely by fiscal drag)
Neither Starmer's vision of a particular kind of New Labour, nor the Lib Dems, are actually a natural fit.
They'd really need a new party or political space, I think, and where does the organisation or profile for that come from.
Con 15200
Lab 15893 (!!)
Ref 11208
LD 2708
Blimey. But then not blimey. Especially with Nigel back.
And Gosport is unchanged;
Con 16100
Lab 13436
Ref 9266
LD 5473
Prolly smells about right, albeit from a distance.
I've been openly wondering for days on here who's best placed to unseat Duguid. In all my blinkered foolishness, I never once considered the Conservative and Unionist Party was the correct answer.
People like Blair and Brown came in in 1983, not exactly a grand time for the party, but a decade and more of grind got them to the top for a long period.
Did they expect it would take that long? Surely not, but they didn't jump ship along the way - whereas quite a few first timers from 2019 are fleeing for the Tories.
Matthew Goodwin (calm down) makes the point that among the few conservative young people he knows, none associates with the Conservative party.
The Conservative and Unionist Party is unseating hundreds of Tory MPs this election. Only more directly with Duguid.
I think they'd need to at least promise to sort that out before any but the most desperate would consider defecting.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-65669759
I'm gonna change it to Tim_in_Ruislip
The hybrid power train was designed to be upgradable to fully electric, when batteries got cheaper.
They were introduced to reduce emissions (especially particulates) as a major part of their design.
The “skate” - wheels, basic frame and power train were designed to be applicable to a range of bus designs.
He felt that he was able to serve, his association selected him, and that was that. And now 48 hours before the deadline they have thrown him off the ticket.
The problem Reform and UKIP before them have is that there is never going to be a majority for them or even a large enough minority to get meaningful representation. All they are going to do is screw the Tories, a bit like so many Alba members are keen to screw the SNP in the hope that something better comes out of the wreckage.
It may be that after 10 years or so of opposition the lesson will be learned that the centre right and the right need to hang in together if they want to win or influence the direction of this country. Maybe. But it is going to take quite a while.
https://youtu.be/6M08Czuqy80?si=XwZ4-wTsrpwvEdBo
Everyone has their own special reason to hate them and their own special reason to believe whatever they want of SKS.
Labour barely factor in this election except as an ejection mechanism.
I do think that's where their future lies as a distinctive party, myself. Classic liberalism on ancient rights and liberties, and dipping their toes into social liberalism. I do think some of their MP's might join a new centre-right grouping if the Tories merge with Reform, though.
When will it ever end?
Not that he's the be all and end all of the threat of Reform to the Tories, but it is on a different level with the attention he would get over Tice.
Britain. Play by the rules. Fair play.
Johnson broke that and quite possibly he has destroyed his party as a consequence.
He seems surprised and disappointed by it, which makes me think something else is going on. A candidate they want to parachute in or a brewing scandal around Duguid himself.
I'm bracing myself for Ruth Davidson to appear
The Labour Party, phoenix-like, rose from the ashes after 1983, and again after 2019, The Tory Party will do the same, after some self-reflection.
For many reasons, the coming years could be fractious. For one thing, we could easily have all the opposition parties post election demanding PR - including a potential breakaway left faction of Labour, for instance.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/24369290.scottish-tories-drop-candidate-recovering-serious-illness/
A rather unfortunate phrase given that he has had a spinal illness.
1) Right wing economics, socially liberal - the metropolitan elite, Cameroons, Blairites etc - Times and FT readers
2) Right wing economics, socially conservative - shire Tories - Mail and Telegraph readers
3) Left wing economics, socially liberal - Corbynites, Greenies - Guardian readers
4) Left wing economics, socially conservative - Red Wallers - Mirror and Sun readers
Now traditionally the divide has been on economics - groups 1&2 for Con vs. 3&4 for Lab
What we saw with the Brexit debate and has happened in the US is a new alignment on cultural issues 1&3 vs. 2&4. If we continue down this path then that may well lead to a complete realignment and break both main parties. We could then end up with a situation where SW Norfolk and Sunderland Central vote for a socially conservative party, while Maidenhead and Hackney N vote for a socially liberal party.
Your centre right Tories then end up like the Country Club republicans in the US and have to decide whether culture or economics is more important.
Since being rescued from bankruptcy, I think they're concentrating on hydrogen buses these days.
Basically, it seems that it was too expensive for any non-London operators.
No idea if he could sue the SCUP - but it would take too long to get reinstated as a candidate in the lawcourts.
While letting prisoners out due to overcrowding, and failing to fund the courts for 14 years.
His team really do hate him
I think we're missing a piece of the puzzle here.
They don't give a rat fuck do they, even for their own. And he IS able to stand. They just decided not to left him.
You are beginning to back away from thinking it might still work, I can sense that.
Here’s the kicker. When Sunak faces all those interviews in coming weeks, does he want to be quizzed about the 2K Lie? Does he want it to come up in interviews. Look how his 2K Lie has been successfully shredded on all the news programmes today - he’s going to have to go through that same shred, in every interview, every week - not merely the next one on one debate, when Starmer is ready and waiting for him with all these strong lines of attack. Everybody’s now ready and waiting for him.
Ignoring the Civil Service immediately called him a liar, which will always be the first thing he will have to try and spin, take just one other aspect - the SPADs who created this only got it to come up to 2K figure, because the only people they had paying tax to fill the bigged up black hole, are working families. How financially illiterate does that sound? And Rishi’s going to have that put to him, just like that, and again and again he’s going to have to admit that, yes, that bit is actually true.
The damage this can cause Sunak’s credibility and the campaign has not been thought through, has it?
And yet now here we are with multiple Baxterised polls placing Team Parasail as His Majesty’s Next Opposition.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/13/tory-mp-david-duguid-failed-to-declare-wifes-bp-shares-before-oil-and-gas-debates
Starmer Chameleon...
We could be just days away from a tipping point in the polls when Reform overtakes the Conservatives
ALLISTER HEATH"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/tory-left-driving-party-to-annihilation-at-farage-hands/
The “family home tax guarantee” is made up of new Tory pledges in three specific areas of property tax.
The first is promising that more council tax bands, “expensive” council tax revaluations and council tax discounts will not be implemented under a Tory government.
The second is that the party will maintain private residence relief, where people do not pay capital gains tax on their main home when it is sold.
The third is that the Tories will not increase the rate or level of stamp duty.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/05/jeremy-hunt-challenges-keir-starmer-on-property-tax/
It clear the Tory tactic is to keep shifting on every area that is / can be taxed and promising no increases and then challenge Labour to say no they wouldn't raise that either. Obviously it is dishonest as both parties are going to have to raise taxes somewhere.
Then pray that Starmer doesn’t embark on a patriotic war in the Falklands.
But he's not a SCUP employee so they would just say tough (to quote one of our Tories).
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/04/22/xl-bullies-seven-times-more-britain-government-estimated/
Vanilla, Chocolate, Banana, Strawberry or Salted Caramel?
https://wimpy.uk.com/menus/drinks
He doesn’t want the hard work, boredom and scrutiny of being an actual politician.
This - along with FPTP - are why Reform are unlikely to supplant the Cons.