Is it actually possible we may see seats without a Tory candidate?
Doubt it - enough people who can be prevailed upon. There is a risk, though, of inadequately vetted candidates.
Little risk of any of them winning though.
No. But a fairly high chance of causing embarrassment in the campaign. I mean, you get it with vetted candidates but, "Party forced to distance itself from candidate who told pensioner to fuck off to Dignitas on Twitter" is always sub-optimal even if the candidate won't win. And it's riskier with hasty selections.
The whole Conservative Party should fuck off to Dignitas.
Europe shows the future. It will be fought between left and populist right. Britain will get a successful populist right party in the end, it’s up to the Tories whether it is them or a party that replaces them
Ummm, the populist right is Europe's past.
We fought wars as a result
I think Leon's point is that it increasingly seems to be Europe's future as well.
Yes, and I disagree with him that we should rush to embrace it.
It’s rushing to embrace YOU is more the point
It is inevitable. And it is the EU that you adore which leads the way, which is highly amusing and poignant
Nothing is inevitable. And you've always had a fash curious bias.
Trying to find somewhere to get something to eat in provincial England at 10.50pm.
(1) Lots of places that say they close at 11pm actually don't, they mean they want to go home at 11pm and aren't interested in you after about 10.30pm (2) A shitload of people order crap from Dominos and Papa John's (3) Curry restaurants, if the lights are still on, will often be your saviour.
So, yes, I'm having a chicken bhuna and a beer at 10.58pm. Nice.
Jeremy Hunt speaks up and it's like a breath of fresh air The evidence of Britain is that elections are always won from the centre ground and I think in a two-party system that will always be the case. We’ll always be a broad church, and I think that’s a good thing.
There it is. The Conservative Party is still in there somewhere. They missed a trick in not making him leader. Too late now, just another of history's "what if"s.
Trouble is that the Lib Dems have often tried being the centre party. It's not won them any elections. You need a large base of voters to win elections. Being on the centre won't guarantee you that.
The LD's have always done best electorally, since the 1990's, when they have been seen to be slightly to the left of Labour, a lesson they will probably have to relearn all over again under Starmer, and challenging any of his more authoritarian policies, as they did under Blair.
Davey will have to shift his stance a little, but that he's surprised me on the upside in this election so far.
That was before the Greens though - LDs tried it in 2019 and lost their leader! The space is a liberal centre-right party if the tories go as cuckoo as it expected.
An economically centre right, pro EU and socially liberal party was the LDs led by Clegg in 2015, it got 7.9% of the vote and 8 MPs
Indeed. The previous stonking and all-time best Liberal Democrat performance in 2010 was on the back of a more centre-left manifesto.
By far the best LD peformances that I can remember were from 2000-2010 when they were challenging New Labour from a slightly more leftward, if not always more statist, position, as mentioned.
In other news, I'm going to call it that the Trump conviction has made no difference whatsoever to the polls in the US. Of course, he hasn't been sentenced yet, but I doubt that will make a difference unless he's jailed.
I expect it'll be probation. It's a common sentence for the crime apparently, and despite his egregious attacks on the judicial system and absurd denials even of the non contentious parts of the situation he is technically a first time offender, plus the judge's remarks in the contempt of court hearings indicate that that Trump is running for president and could be president again is something he is bearing in mind.
He wouldn't go to prison immediately (or if due to start right away he'd be let out during his appeals), so if it is possible it might be an idea to sentence to a few months of jail time (which seems like it would be warranted given lack of remorse etc), but set it to start after the US election.
Not sure what you mean but I hope it is not connected to the widely condemned milk shake attack on Farage
Its a joke. Besides Farage appears to have set up the milkshake "attack" for publicity. And it worked beautifully.
You are a lib dem candidate joking about milkshakes attacks?
That Farage set the attack up on himself is 100% fake news. In fact it is pushing a conspiracy, is it not?
I have no idea but the attack has led to an arrest
I just cannot understand why anyone would joke about politicians being milkshake attacked, especially when many mps have condemned the attack on Farage
I think we have to accept that the game is up for the Conservative Party. As it is for Les Republicans in France, the Italian and Dutch Christian Democrats. Or the French or Greek Socialists. Parties eventually run out of road, and cease to speak for anyone other than careerists.
Parties can be re-invented and it might be easier to do so in opposition. The Conservative party has survived for a very long time so I wouldn't be issuing the last rights just yet.
Matthew Goodwin (calm down) makes the point that among the few conservative young people he knows, none associates with the Conservative party.
Hunt is right about elections being won from the centre ground but the development of Reform is causing the Tories a major problem because they are losing so much of their hinterland to the right of centre that they should be able to rely on.
The problem Reform and UKIP before them have is that there is never going to be a majority for them or even a large enough minority to get meaningful representation. All they are going to do is screw the Tories, a bit like so many Alba members are keen to screw the SNP in the hope that something better comes out of the wreckage.
It may be that after 10 years or so of opposition the lesson will be learned that the centre right and the right need to hang in together if they want to win or influence the direction of this country. Maybe. But it is going to take quite a while.
It depends on the vote distribution. Reform would be very unlikely to win current Con seats like Cheltenham and Winchester BUT they could hope to win Labour seats like Barnsley N and Sunderland Central,if Lab become unpopular.
Trying to find somewhere to get something to eat in provincial England at 10.50pm.
(1) Lots of places that say they close at 11pm actually don't, they mean they want to go home at 11pm and aren't interested in you after about 10.30pm (2) A shitload of people order crap from Dominos and Papa John's (3) Curry restaurants, if the lights are still on, will often be your saviour.
So, yes, I'm having a chicken bhuna and a beer at 10.58pm. Nice.
Since the pandemic it's been increasingly difficult even in big cities like London and New York. I was walking round NYC with my brother in May and we couldn't find anywhere near Penn Station after 11pm. Not what I was expecting given the "city that never sleeps" reputation.
Trying to find somewhere to get something to eat in provincial England at 10.50pm.
(1) Lots of places that say they close at 11pm actually don't, they mean they want to go home at 11pm and aren't interested in you after about 10.30pm (2) A shitload of people order crap from Dominos and Papa John's (3) Curry restaurants, if the lights are still on, will often be your saviour.
So, yes, I'm having a chicken bhuna and a beer at 10.58pm. Nice.
There is some great food in West Cork, but I haven't braved the one Indian restaurant because its reviews are awful, so I might have to go up to the city.
Is it actually possible we may see seats without a Tory candidate?
Doubt it - enough people who can be prevailed upon. There is a risk, though, of inadequately vetted candidates.
Little risk of any of them winning though.
No. But a fairly high chance of causing embarrassment in the campaign. I mean, you get it with vetted candidates but, "Party forced to distance itself from candidate who told pensioner to fuck off to Dignitas on Twitter" is always sub-optimal even if the candidate won't win. And it's riskier with hasty selections.
The whole Conservative Party should fuck off to Dignitas.
Not sure what you mean but I hope it is not connected to the widely condemned milk shake attack on Farage
Its a joke. Besides Farage appears to have set up the milkshake "attack" for publicity. And it worked beautifully.
You are a lib dem candidate joking about milkshakes attacks?
That Farage set the attack up on himself is 100% fake news. In fact it is pushing a conspiracy, is it not?
I have no idea but the attack has led to an arrest
I just cannot understand why anyone would joke about politicians being milkshake attacked, especially when many mps have condemned the attack on Farage
I think the link to Wimpy may have gone over your head. That was the joke. Never mind.
I think we have to accept that the game is up for the Conservative Party. As it is for Les Republicans in France, the Italian and Dutch Christian Democrats. Or the French or Greek Socialists. Parties eventually run out of road, and cease to speak for anyone other than careerists.
Is it though? Les Republicains are now the key swing voters in France, Macron and his party only beat Le Pen and her party and Melenchon and his party in the French second ballot system due to most Les Republicains voters voting for Macron and his candidates in the second round of the presidential and legislative elections.
The Italian Christian Democrats dissolved into the Democratic Party, which is the main centre left opposition in Italy and Forza Italia, who are a pivotal part of Meloni's governing coalition. The Dutch Christian Democrats were part of the Rutte government. The French Socialists are now part of Melenchon's block which was second in the legislative elections.
Even in Canada Reform only got elected by merging with the rump of the Canadian Tories to form today's Canadian Conservative Party.
Farage can't ever elect a Reform government without Tory support either
Trying to find somewhere to get something to eat in provincial England at 10.50pm.
(1) Lots of places that say they close at 11pm actually don't, they mean they want to go home at 11pm and aren't interested in you after about 10.30pm (2) A shitload of people order crap from Dominos and Papa John's (3) Curry restaurants, if the lights are still on, will often be your saviour.
So, yes, I'm having a chicken bhuna and a beer at 10.58pm. Nice.
My local Tescos is no longer open 24 hours a day any more, so that's cut out a lot of potential options.
Knew a chap once who ran a fried chicken place, poor hygeine rating and bad service, but was open very late to catch people coming out of clubs etc. Had a loose idea of adherence to his hours of operation and other licensing conditions, and would direct people to the rear to make purchases past 1am. When caught he'd just say "What am I supposed to do, not feed hungry people?"
Not sure what you mean but I hope it is not connected to the widely condemned milk shake attack on Farage
Is banana flavour really that widely condemned in a milkshake ?
Occasionally I have a milkshake from a restaurant where its an outrageous flavour (Biscoff or something) and practically an additional course its that stodgy. fasr food milkshake is awful - and Banana is the worst of the worst. What is the appeal?
I've walked past that Wimpy enough times but never actually been in. Can barely believe its still a thing - Wimpy opened and quickly closed in Rochdale when I was something like 13. An eternity ago...
Not sure what you mean but I hope it is not connected to the widely condemned milk shake attack on Farage
Its a joke. Besides Farage appears to have set up the milkshake "attack" for publicity. And it worked beautifully.
You are a lib dem candidate joking about milkshakes attacks?
Joking about the fact we still have a WIMPY to buy milkshakes from.
Nobody in politics should have milkshake or anything else thrown at them. Even if they are Farage.
It's deeply weird that Wimpy still exists. Yet there it is in The Broch. The Town that Time Forgot.
The bar in the Station Hotel was decorated like a train carriage so you could look out the (painted) windows while you supped.
Presumably it was all done up in compartments and there were film screens outside the windows so the locals could find out what a train ride was like? Not much chance otherwise in Fraserburgh.
Trying to find somewhere to get something to eat in provincial England at 10.50pm.
(1) Lots of places that say they close at 11pm actually don't, they mean they want to go home at 11pm and aren't interested in you after about 10.30pm (2) A shitload of people order crap from Dominos and Papa John's (3) Curry restaurants, if the lights are still on, will often be your saviour.
So, yes, I'm having a chicken bhuna and a beer at 10.58pm. Nice.
There is some great food in West Cork, but I haven't braved the one Indian restaurant because its reviews are awful, so I might have to go up to the city.
I'm fucking eating this bhuna even if it's made of cat.
Wimpy always had far better, and more vegetable and mayonmaise-filled burgers, than McDonalds or Burger King, that also tasted slightly less prouction-line, if not exactly Gourmet.
Fond memories of Queensway in the 1980's, and the then down-at-heel and shabby chic of the area.
Not sure what you mean but I hope it is not connected to the widely condemned milk shake attack on Farage
Its a joke. Besides Farage appears to have set up the milkshake "attack" for publicity. And it worked beautifully.
That was debunked within a few minutes of the claim first being made. It's was case of mistaken identity.
"A lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is still putting on its shoes."
The alleged proponent has been arrested and identified as a Corbyn supporter
Don't get the mentality of it. Don't like Farage? Defeat the ideas, don't give them more publicity.
He'll win Clacton.
Sell nudes on the t'interweb for a living, what millions of quid of free publicity, attack a politician....motivate solved. Nought political about it.
Indeed. The young lady in question has today launched a new ‘my milkshake’ campaign to gain new subscribers. The Daily Mail have all the details, for those interested in further reading.
In an open letter, more than 100 Jewish figures in the media and entertainment industry condemned the BBC’s decision to stand by Sheikh, who began commentating this week for Test Match Special.
Not sure what you mean but I hope it is not connected to the widely condemned milk shake attack on Farage
Is banana flavour really that widely condemned in a milkshake ?
Occasionally I have a milkshake from a restaurant where its an outrageous flavour (Biscoff or something) and practically an additional course its that stodgy. fasr food milkshake is awful - and Banana is the worst of the worst. What is the appeal?
I've walked past that Wimpy enough times but never actually been in. Can barely believe its still a thing - Wimpy opened and quickly closed in Rochdale when I was something like 13. An eternity ago...
I have fond memories of having a "Lime Milkshake" on Blackpool Promenade as a child. I'm sure it's probably shortened my life later life by 10 years, but boy was it a treat in the 70s.
Am I remembering correctly you used to get a proper plate, knife and fork in Wimpy? I presumed they had long since gone with the rise of the million different new burger chains (many of which are part of massive multi-national groups).
Not sure what you mean but I hope it is not connected to the widely condemned milk shake attack on Farage
Its a joke. Besides Farage appears to have set up the milkshake "attack" for publicity. And it worked beautifully.
You are a lib dem candidate joking about milkshakes attacks?
Joking about the fact we still have a WIMPY to buy milkshakes from.
Nobody in politics should have milkshake or anything else thrown at them. Even if they are Farage.
It's deeply weird that Wimpy still exists. Yet there it is in The Broch. The Town that Time Forgot.
The last time I remember seeing one in England was in about 1988 when I was at primary school.
Long defunct in the US.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_defunct_fast-food_restaurant_chains Wimpy Grills – founded in Bloomington, Indiana, in 1934, it eventually grew to 25 locations within the United States and 1,500 outside of the US. The international locations were eventually sold to J. Lyons and Co. in the United Kingdom, which remains open, while all of the American locations eventually closed by 1978..
Has branches in Kuwait and the UAE too, apparently.
Not sure what you mean but I hope it is not connected to the widely condemned milk shake attack on Farage
Is banana flavour really that widely condemned in a milkshake ?
Occasionally I have a milkshake from a restaurant where its an outrageous flavour (Biscoff or something) and practically an additional course its that stodgy. fasr food milkshake is awful - and Banana is the worst of the worst. What is the appeal?
I've walked past that Wimpy enough times but never actually been in. Can barely believe its still a thing - Wimpy opened and quickly closed in Rochdale when I was something like 13. An eternity ago...
I have fond memories of having a "Lime Milkshake" on Blackpool Promenade as a child. I'm sure it's probably shortened my life later life by 10 years, but boy was it a treat in the 70s.
Wimpy always had far better, and more vegetable and mayonmaise-filled burgers, than McDonalds or Burger King, that also tasted slightly less prouction-line, if not exactly Gourmet.
Fond memories of Queenway in the 1980's.
Their delicious spicy beanburgers were decades ahead of the competition. Still on the menu even now.
I love this. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: cuddly, comedic Sir Ed Davey has been such a tonic in an election campaign that otherwise veers between tedious and unpleasant like [snark redacted].
Shame there aren’t many votes to be gained by simply being a nice, normal* human being, which probably explains why the election campaign has veered between dullness and nastiness just like [snark redacted].
(*as normal as possible for a senior politician, anyway)
Apologies in advance for triggering the inevitable *YeBbUt PoSt OfFiCe* klaxon by praising SED again.
Not sure what you mean but I hope it is not connected to the widely condemned milk shake attack on Farage
Its a joke. Besides Farage appears to have set up the milkshake "attack" for publicity. And it worked beautifully.
You are a lib dem candidate joking about milkshakes attacks?
That Farage set the attack up on himself is 100% fake news. In fact it is pushing a conspiracy, is it not?
Self-publicity is what he does. Have seen a couple of "he set it up things" with pictures and everything. If that isn't right then happy to be corrected.
The truth matters then? Interesting development after the excitement of last night.
Can you take down the creepy picture of the sociopath / doomsday survivalist you are using as avatar? It is frightening my sheep.
Jeremy Hunt speaks up and it's like a breath of fresh air The evidence of Britain is that elections are always won from the centre ground and I think in a two-party system that will always be the case. We’ll always be a broad church, and I think that’s a good thing.
There it is. The Conservative Party is still in there somewhere. They missed a trick in not making him leader. Too late now, just another of history's "what if"s.
Trouble is that the Lib Dems have often tried being the centre party. It's not won them any elections. You need a large base of voters to win elections. Being on the centre won't guarantee you that.
The LD's have always done best electorally, since the 1990's, when they have been seen to be slightly to the left of Labour, a lesson they will probably have to relearn all over again under Starmer, and challenging any of his more authoritarian policies, as they did under Blair.
Davey will have to shift his stance a little, but that he's surprised me on the upside in this election so far.
That was before the Greens though - LDs tried it in 2019 and lost their leader! The space is a liberal centre-right party if the tories go as cuckoo as it expected.
An economically centre right, pro EU and socially liberal party was the LDs led by Clegg in 2015, it got 7.9% of the vote and 8 MPs
No other relevant factors there were there! Not least the Tories occupying exactly the same ground.
Not sure what you mean but I hope it is not connected to the widely condemned milk shake attack on Farage
Is banana flavour really that widely condemned in a milkshake ?
Occasionally I have a milkshake from a restaurant where its an outrageous flavour (Biscoff or something) and practically an additional course its that stodgy. fasr food milkshake is awful - and Banana is the worst of the worst. What is the appeal?
I've walked past that Wimpy enough times but never actually been in. Can barely believe its still a thing - Wimpy opened and quickly closed in Rochdale when I was something like 13. An eternity ago...
I have fond memories of having a "Lime Milkshake" on Blackpool Promenade as a child. I'm sure it's probably shortened my life later life by 10 years, but boy was it a treat in the 70s.
Been having a bit more of a look at the polling for Canada 1993. In some ways the Progressive Conservatives were still lucky to get 2 seats as Reform Canada only overtook them in the polls right at the end of the campaign:
In the 1997 election the PCs recovered to 18.8% of the vote and 20 MPs before declining again in 2000 and merging with Reform's successor Party the Canadian Alliance in 2003 to form today's Conservative Party of Canada
Am I remembering correctly you used to get a proper plate, knife and fork in Wimpy? I presumed they had long since gone with the rise of the million different new burger chains (many of which are part of massive multi-national groups).
There are some table service ones still, with plates, cutlery and waitresses. Even the famous bendy sausages.
Jeremy Hunt speaks up and it's like a breath of fresh air The evidence of Britain is that elections are always won from the centre ground and I think in a two-party system that will always be the case. We’ll always be a broad church, and I think that’s a good thing.
There it is. The Conservative Party is still in there somewhere. They missed a trick in not making him leader. Too late now, just another of history's "what if"s.
Trouble is that the Lib Dems have often tried being the centre party. It's not won them any elections. You need a large base of voters to win elections. Being on the centre won't guarantee you that.
The LD's have always done best electorally, since the 1990's, when they have been seen to be slightly to the left of Labour, a lesson they will probably have to relearn all over again under Starmer, and challenging any of his more authoritarian policies, as they did under Blair.
Davey will have to shift his stance a little, but that he's surprised me on the upside in this election so far.
That was before the Greens though - LDs tried it in 2019 and lost their leader! The space is a liberal centre-right party if the tories go as cuckoo as it expected.
An economically centre right, pro EU and socially liberal party was the LDs led by Clegg in 2015, it got 7.9% of the vote and 8 MPs
Indeed. The previous stonking and all-time best Liberal Democrat performance in 2010 was on the back of a more centre-left manifesto.
By far the best LD peformances that I can remember were from 2000-2010 when they were challenging New Labour from a slightly more leftward, if not always more statist, position, as mentioned.
Under Charles Kennedy and Clegg version 2010 the LDs prospered best under FPTP by being New Labour's leftwing conscience in 2005 and 2010.
As Farage is now playing the role of the rightwing conscience of the Sunak Tories
I thought that Farage would have no effect on the remaining Tory vote. That what remain are traditionalist types who are as sceptical of Reform as they are Labour, and that there was a hard floor of around 20%.
Not sure what you mean but I hope it is not connected to the widely condemned milk shake attack on Farage
Its a joke. Besides Farage appears to have set up the milkshake "attack" for publicity. And it worked beautifully.
You are a lib dem candidate joking about milkshakes attacks?
That Farage set the attack up on himself is 100% fake news. In fact it is pushing a conspiracy, is it not?
Self-publicity is what he does. Have seen a couple of "he set it up things" with pictures and everything. If that isn't right then happy to be corrected.
The truth matters then? Interesting development after the excitement of last night.
Can you take down the creepy picture of the sociopath / doomsday survivalist you are using as avatar? It is frightening my sheep.
I should update it again. I've lost 23 kilos since I took that last winter.
"A rose by any other name would smell as sweet, said Juliet, but the legislature of Illinois does not agree. It believes that the word “offender” should now be replaced by the term “justice-impacted individual.”"
Not sure what you mean but I hope it is not connected to the widely condemned milk shake attack on Farage
Its a joke. Besides Farage appears to have set up the milkshake "attack" for publicity. And it worked beautifully.
You are a lib dem candidate joking about milkshakes attacks?
That Farage set the attack up on himself is 100% fake news. In fact it is pushing a conspiracy, is it not?
Self-publicity is what he does. Have seen a couple of "he set it up things" with pictures and everything. If that isn't right then happy to be corrected.
The truth matters then? Interesting development after the excitement of last night.
Can you take down the creepy picture of the sociopath / doomsday survivalist you are using as avatar? It is frightening my sheep.
I should update it again. I've lost 23 kilos since I took that last winter.
Wait. What? Self publicity is exactly what you are accusing Nigel Farage of this week.
Jeremy Hunt speaks up and it's like a breath of fresh air The evidence of Britain is that elections are always won from the centre ground and I think in a two-party system that will always be the case. We’ll always be a broad church, and I think that’s a good thing.
There it is. The Conservative Party is still in there somewhere. They missed a trick in not making him leader. Too late now, just another of history's "what if"s.
Trouble is that the Lib Dems have often tried being the centre party. It's not won them any elections. You need a large base of voters to win elections. Being on the centre won't guarantee you that.
The LD's have always done best electorally, since the 1990's, when they have been seen to be slightly to the left of Labour, a lesson they will probably have to relearn all over again under Starmer, and challenging any of his more authoritarian policies, as they did under Blair.
Davey will have to shift his stance a little, but that he's surprised me on the upside in this election so far.
That was before the Greens though - LDs tried it in 2019 and lost their leader! The space is a liberal centre-right party if the tories go as cuckoo as it expected.
An economically centre right, pro EU and socially liberal party was the LDs led by Clegg in 2015, it got 7.9% of the vote and 8 MPs
No other relevant factors there were there! Not least the Tories occupying exactly the same ground.
Did rather well in 2010 though...
Clegg was promising to scrap tuition fees in 2010 and positioned himself on the centre left then, hence the sense of betrayal when he formed a centre right government with Cameron.
I thought that Farage would have no effect on the remaining Tory vote. That what remain are traditionalist types who are as sceptical of Reform as they are Labour, and that there was a hard floor of around 20%.
But no. This YouGov poll...
In the final UK EU Parliament elections in 2019 Farage's Brexit Party got 32% and May's Tories just 9%.
If that translated to national elections if Farage overtook the Tories on votes this time, if he squeezed the Tories further under FPTP at the general election after next or took them over not impossible Farage could be UK PM within a decade if a Starmer government proved unpopular and managed the economy poorly
In an open letter, more than 100 Jewish figures in the media and entertainment industry condemned the BBC’s decision to stand by Sheikh, who began commentating this week for Test Match Special.
I thought that Farage would have no effect on the remaining Tory vote. That what remain are traditionalist types who are as sceptical of Reform as they are Labour, and that there was a hard floor of around 20%.
But no. This YouGov poll...
In the final UK EU Parliament elections in 2019 Farage's Brexit Party got 32% and May's Tories just 9%.
Let me Baxter that...
But seriously, all about turnout now. The Conservatives have to drag anyone who has consistently voted Tory over the last 30 years into the polling place. That's what survival will take. 100% turnout for that group.
I thought that Farage would have no effect on the remaining Tory vote. That what remain are traditionalist types who are as sceptical of Reform as they are Labour, and that there was a hard floor of around 20%.
But no. This YouGov poll...
In the final UK EU Parliament elections in 2019 Farage's Brexit Party got 32% and May's Tories just 9%.
Let me Baxter that...
But seriously, all about turnout now. The Conservatives have to drag anyone who has consistently voted Tory over the last 30 years into the polling place. That's what survival will take. 100% turnout for that group.
Arguably, we've been swimming water ever since May 2019.
They had no right to win from there. They probably should have been destroyed from that point.
Thing is, Corbin probably woulda won.
and that would have been a catastrophe that would have supercharged the right, by now.
Counterfactuals, eh?!
Instead we get a competent centre-left government who can look forward to a decent honeymoon, before a couple of terms in power. Maybe three?
So as a long time lurker and occasional poster I thought I would give my weigh in here on the election.
I'm a landlord of a cotswold pub, over the last few days obviously election talk has been very prominent amongst customers.
We are North Cotswolds which is very Tory.
Overall responce from alit of people is Lib Dems are expected to do well. Not out out strong support but rather lesser of all evils, Cheltenham, North Cotswolds all in with a shout.
Very few are out and out for Farage but a hell of a lot are considering him.
Sunak went down a storm here in the debate, the response was very very positive for him, he won't have won any traditional Labour voters over to him, but a lot of on the fence conservatives are more confident in him.
It seems alot will follow how reform do in the next week or so, if they don't make inroads the the Tory vote will hold up a lot better than expected.
"A rose by any other name would smell as sweet, said Juliet, but the legislature of Illinois does not agree. It believes that the word “offender” should now be replaced by the term “justice-impacted individual.”"
Jeremy Hunt speaks up and it's like a breath of fresh air The evidence of Britain is that elections are always won from the centre ground and I think in a two-party system that will always be the case. We’ll always be a broad church, and I think that’s a good thing.
There it is. The Conservative Party is still in there somewhere. They missed a trick in not making him leader. Too late now, just another of history's "what if"s.
Trouble is that the Lib Dems have often tried being the centre party. It's not won them any elections. You need a large base of voters to win elections. Being on the centre won't guarantee you that.
The LD's have always done best electorally, since the 1990's, when they have been seen to be slightly to the left of Labour, a lesson they will probably have to relearn all over again under Starmer, and challenging any of his more authoritarian policies, as they did under Blair.
Davey will have to shift his stance a little, but that he's surprised me on the upside in this election so far.
That was before the Greens though - LDs tried it in 2019 and lost their leader! The space is a liberal centre-right party if the tories go as cuckoo as it expected.
An economically centre right, pro EU and socially liberal party was the LDs led by Clegg in 2015, it got 7.9% of the vote and 8 MPs
Also worth pointing out that if the Tories continue to Tory and LDs end up as the official opposition it's a once in a lifetime chance to displace the Tories - if they put forward a sensible centre-right platform while Reform take over the Tories come 2029 they may remain the OO.
Jeremy Hunt speaks up and it's like a breath of fresh air The evidence of Britain is that elections are always won from the centre ground and I think in a two-party system that will always be the case. We’ll always be a broad church, and I think that’s a good thing.
There it is. The Conservative Party is still in there somewhere. They missed a trick in not making him leader. Too late now, just another of history's "what if"s.
Trouble is that the Lib Dems have often tried being the centre party. It's not won them any elections. You need a large base of voters to win elections. Being on the centre won't guarantee you that.
The LD's have always done best electorally, since the 1990's, when they have been seen to be slightly to the left of Labour, a lesson they will probably have to relearn all over again under Starmer, and challenging any of his more authoritarian policies, as they did under Blair.
Davey will have to shift his stance a little, but that he's surprised me on the upside in this election so far.
That was before the Greens though - LDs tried it in 2019 and lost their leader! The space is a liberal centre-right party if the tories go as cuckoo as it expected.
An economically centre right, pro EU and socially liberal party was the LDs led by Clegg in 2015, it got 7.9% of the vote and 8 MPs
Also worth pointing out that if the Tories continue to Tory and LDs end up as the official opposition it's a once in a lifetime chance to displace the Tories - if they put forward a sensible centre-right platform while Reform take over the Tories come 2029 they may remain the OO.
Ed Davey is an Orange Booker, so could easily appeal to Cameroons.
Jeremy Hunt speaks up and it's like a breath of fresh air The evidence of Britain is that elections are always won from the centre ground and I think in a two-party system that will always be the case. We’ll always be a broad church, and I think that’s a good thing.
There it is. The Conservative Party is still in there somewhere. They missed a trick in not making him leader. Too late now, just another of history's "what if"s.
Trouble is that the Lib Dems have often tried being the centre party. It's not won them any elections. You need a large base of voters to win elections. Being on the centre won't guarantee you that.
The LD's have always done best electorally, since the 1990's, when they have been seen to be slightly to the left of Labour, a lesson they will probably have to relearn all over again under Starmer, and challenging any of his more authoritarian policies, as they did under Blair.
Davey will have to shift his stance a little, but that he's surprised me on the upside in this election so far.
That was before the Greens though - LDs tried it in 2019 and lost their leader! The space is a liberal centre-right party if the tories go as cuckoo as it expected.
An economically centre right, pro EU and socially liberal party was the LDs led by Clegg in 2015, it got 7.9% of the vote and 8 MPs
Also worth pointing out that if the Tories continue to Tory and LDs end up as the official opposition it's a once in a lifetime chance to displace the Tories - if they put forward a sensible centre-right platform while Reform take over the Tories come 2029 they may remain the OO.
Ed Davey is an Orange Booker, so could easily appeal to Cameroons.
Yep - very much the last of the musketeers in that respect. Rob Blackie is one to watch out for in terms of them gaining ground within the party - although I believe he (bafflingly) isn't standing. His leaflet was very orange book and explicitly YIMBY for the Mayoral election in London.
Jeremy Hunt speaks up and it's like a breath of fresh air The evidence of Britain is that elections are always won from the centre ground and I think in a two-party system that will always be the case. We’ll always be a broad church, and I think that’s a good thing.
There it is. The Conservative Party is still in there somewhere. They missed a trick in not making him leader. Too late now, just another of history's "what if"s.
Trouble is that the Lib Dems have often tried being the centre party. It's not won them any elections. You need a large base of voters to win elections. Being on the centre won't guarantee you that.
The LD's have always done best electorally, since the 1990's, when they have been seen to be slightly to the left of Labour, a lesson they will probably have to relearn all over again under Starmer, and challenging any of his more authoritarian policies, as they did under Blair.
Davey will have to shift his stance a little, but that he's surprised me on the upside in this election so far.
That was before the Greens though - LDs tried it in 2019 and lost their leader! The space is a liberal centre-right party if the tories go as cuckoo as it expected.
An economically centre right, pro EU and socially liberal party was the LDs led by Clegg in 2015, it got 7.9% of the vote and 8 MPs
Also worth pointing out that if the Tories continue to Tory and LDs end up as the official opposition it's a once in a lifetime chance to displace the Tories - if they put forward a sensible centre-right platform while Reform take over the Tories come 2029 they may remain the OO.
If the LDs put forward a centre right platform they lose their SDP, social democratic wing to Labour or even the Greens and are back under 10% again as in 2015 with no Labour tactical votes for them either in their target seats.
They won't become the OO on that. The only party that could replace the Tories as the OO to Starmer Labour is a party led by Farage, as around 30%+ will vote for a socially conservative, pro Brexit, rightwing party
I thought that Farage would have no effect on the remaining Tory vote. That what remain are traditionalist types who are as sceptical of Reform as they are Labour, and that there was a hard floor of around 20%.
But no. This YouGov poll...
In the final UK EU Parliament elections in 2019 Farage's Brexit Party got 32% and May's Tories just 9%.
Let me Baxter that...
But seriously, all about turnout now. The Conservatives have to drag anyone who has consistently voted Tory over the last 30 years into the polling place. That's what survival will take. 100% turnout for that group.
Arguably, we've been swimming water ever since May 2019.
They had no right to win from there. They probably should have been destroyed from that point.
Thing is, Corbin probably woulda won.
and that would have been a catastrophe that would have supercharged the right, by now.
Counterfactuals, eh?!
Instead we get a competent centre-left government who can look forward to a decent honeymoon, before a couple of terms in power. Maybe three?
Unless they fuck it up. Which I doubt they will.
Never underestimate the power of governments to mess things up. Especially in the social media age. There is no way a large influx of unexpectedly victorious new MPs will stay disciplined and on message - or that Labour will be able to balance the books without going for a wealth tax. Both will result in damage to their popularity over their first term. The issue is what happens to the rump conservative party? Who will survive to lead them and what direction will they go?
Jeremy Hunt speaks up and it's like a breath of fresh air The evidence of Britain is that elections are always won from the centre ground and I think in a two-party system that will always be the case. We’ll always be a broad church, and I think that’s a good thing.
There it is. The Conservative Party is still in there somewhere. They missed a trick in not making him leader. Too late now, just another of history's "what if"s.
Trouble is that the Lib Dems have often tried being the centre party. It's not won them any elections. You need a large base of voters to win elections. Being on the centre won't guarantee you that.
The LD's have always done best electorally, since the 1990's, when they have been seen to be slightly to the left of Labour, a lesson they will probably have to relearn all over again under Starmer, and challenging any of his more authoritarian policies, as they did under Blair.
Davey will have to shift his stance a little, but that he's surprised me on the upside in this election so far.
That was before the Greens though - LDs tried it in 2019 and lost their leader! The space is a liberal centre-right party if the tories go as cuckoo as it expected.
An economically centre right, pro EU and socially liberal party was the LDs led by Clegg in 2015, it got 7.9% of the vote and 8 MPs
Also worth pointing out that if the Tories continue to Tory and LDs end up as the official opposition it's a once in a lifetime chance to displace the Tories - if they put forward a sensible centre-right platform while Reform take over the Tories come 2029 they may remain the OO.
If the LDs put forward a centre right platform they lose their SDP, social democratic wing to Labour or even the Greens and are back under 10% again as in 2015 with no Labour tactical votes for them either in their target seats.
They won't become the OO on that. The only party that could replace the Tories as the OO to Starmer Labour is a party led by Farage, as around 30%+ will vote for a socially conservative, pro Brexit, rightwing party
I don't think the left/right axis is very meaningful anymore to British politics. What defines a party more is its attitude to internal democracy, individual liberty and authoritarianism.
That's why LDs can appeal to the free enterprise right, a group repelled by Brexit protectionism, while still appealing to Greens by being decentralised. It is a space between the authoritarian centralising philosophy of Labour and the reactionary social conservatism, culture war and Autarky of Reform and Conservatives.
It isn't a vast space as most Britons don't really value freedom, and prefer the smack of firm government,, but it is one that spreads well outside of current LD support, particularly to one nation Conservatives.
Jeremy Hunt speaks up and it's like a breath of fresh air The evidence of Britain is that elections are always won from the centre ground and I think in a two-party system that will always be the case. We’ll always be a broad church, and I think that’s a good thing.
There it is. The Conservative Party is still in there somewhere. They missed a trick in not making him leader. Too late now, just another of history's "what if"s.
Trouble is that the Lib Dems have often tried being the centre party. It's not won them any elections. You need a large base of voters to win elections. Being on the centre won't guarantee you that.
The LD's have always done best electorally, since the 1990's, when they have been seen to be slightly to the left of Labour, a lesson they will probably have to relearn all over again under Starmer, and challenging any of his more authoritarian policies, as they did under Blair.
Davey will have to shift his stance a little, but that he's surprised me on the upside in this election so far.
That was before the Greens though - LDs tried it in 2019 and lost their leader! The space is a liberal centre-right party if the tories go as cuckoo as it expected.
An economically centre right, pro EU and socially liberal party was the LDs led by Clegg in 2015, it got 7.9% of the vote and 8 MPs
Also worth pointing out that if the Tories continue to Tory and LDs end up as the official opposition it's a once in a lifetime chance to displace the Tories - if they put forward a sensible centre-right platform while Reform take over the Tories come 2029 they may remain the OO.
If the LDs put forward a centre right platform they lose their SDP, social democratic wing to Labour or even the Greens and are back under 10% again as in 2015 with no Labour tactical votes for them either in their target seats.
They won't become the OO on that. The only party that could replace the Tories as the OO to Starmer Labour is a party led by Farage, as around 30%+ will vote for a socially conservative, pro Brexit, rightwing party
I don't think the left/right axis is very meaningful anymore to British politics. What defines a party more is its attitude to internal democracy, individual liberty and authoritarianism.
That's why LDs can appeal to the free enterprise right, a group repelled by Brexit protectionism, while still appealing to Greens by being decentralised. It is a space between the authoritarian centralising philosophy of Labour and the reactionary social conservatism, culture war and Autarky of Reform and Conservatives.
It isn't a vast space as most Britons don't really value freedom, and prefer the smack of firm government,, but it is one that spreads well outside of current LD support, particularly to one nation Conservatives.
Voters who are pro free enterprise, pro low taxes and small state, pro immigration and socially liberal amount to 10% of the electorate at most. That is the brutal electoral reality.
There might be a market for a party with such an approach under PR, under FPTP it would get steamrollered by Labour and the Reform/Conservative main block
Jeremy Hunt speaks up and it's like a breath of fresh air The evidence of Britain is that elections are always won from the centre ground and I think in a two-party system that will always be the case. We’ll always be a broad church, and I think that’s a good thing.
There it is. The Conservative Party is still in there somewhere. They missed a trick in not making him leader. Too late now, just another of history's "what if"s.
Trouble is that the Lib Dems have often tried being the centre party. It's not won them any elections. You need a large base of voters to win elections. Being on the centre won't guarantee you that.
The LD's have always done best electorally, since the 1990's, when they have been seen to be slightly to the left of Labour, a lesson they will probably have to relearn all over again under Starmer, and challenging any of his more authoritarian policies, as they did under Blair.
Davey will have to shift his stance a little, but that he's surprised me on the upside in this election so far.
That was before the Greens though - LDs tried it in 2019 and lost their leader! The space is a liberal centre-right party if the tories go as cuckoo as it expected.
An economically centre right, pro EU and socially liberal party was the LDs led by Clegg in 2015, it got 7.9% of the vote and 8 MPs
Also worth pointing out that if the Tories continue to Tory and LDs end up as the official opposition it's a once in a lifetime chance to displace the Tories - if they put forward a sensible centre-right platform while Reform take over the Tories come 2029 they may remain the OO.
If the LDs put forward a centre right platform they lose their SDP, social democratic wing to Labour or even the Greens and are back under 10% again as in 2015 with no Labour tactical votes for them either in their target seats.
They won't become the OO on that. The only party that could replace the Tories as the OO to Starmer Labour is a party led by Farage, as around 30%+ will vote for a socially conservative, pro Brexit, rightwing party
I don't think the left/right axis is very meaningful anymore to British politics. What defines a party more is its attitude to internal democracy, individual liberty and authoritarianism.
That's why LDs can appeal to the free enterprise right, a group repelled by Brexit protectionism, while still appealing to Greens by being decentralised. It is a space between the authoritarian centralising philosophy of Labour and the reactionary social conservatism, culture war and Autarky of Reform and Conservatives.
It isn't a vast space as most Britons don't really value freedom, and prefer the smack of firm government,, but it is one that spreads well outside of current LD support, particularly to one nation Conservatives.
Voters who are pro free enterprise, pro low taxes and small state, pro immigration and socially liberal amount to 10% of the electorate at most. That is the brutal electoral reality.
There might be a market for a party with such an approach under PR, under FPTP it would get steamrollered by Labour and the Reform/Conservative main block
Yes, but we do need to grow the share of people that genuinely believe in it. It's the right answer to the problems of the country.
In an open letter, more than 100 Jewish figures in the media and entertainment industry condemned the BBC’s decision to stand by Sheikh, who began commentating this week for Test Match Special.
Boycott got booted off for being an old white bloke from Hemsworth despite being one of the most popular commentators on TMS.
I think to be fair for the case against Boycott, he is massively out of touch with modern cricket, particularly T20. Same as Sky rightly got rid of Botham, Holding, Lloyd, Gower (although Gower is a good lead presenter as shown more recently on TNT). The BBC of course threw Vaughan under the bus with a mere allegation of racism and even then it was super weak if it was even true and literally every other non-white player who played under him said he was a top bloke, great captain, did everything for their careers.
The problem is most of the other people BBC have employed have not much more idea. Tuffers, Vaughan, etc talking about T20 tactics is painful. Occasionally they have Tymal Mills on, who does actually know.
Compare to Sky who replaced the old guard with the likes of Eoin Morgan, Kumar Sangakkara, Dinesh Karthik, who are top drawer.
In an open letter, more than 100 Jewish figures in the media and entertainment industry condemned the BBC’s decision to stand by Sheikh, who began commentating this week for Test Match Special.
Boycott got booted off for being an old white bloke from Hemsworth despite being one of the most popular commentators on TMS.
I think to be fair for the case against Boycott, he is massively out of touch with modern cricket, particularly T20. Same as Sky rightly got rid of Botham, Holding, Lloyd, Gower (although Gower is a good lead presenter as shown more recently on TNT). The BBC of course threw Vaughan under the bus with a mere allegation of racism and even then it was super weak if it was even true and literally every other non-white player who played under him said he was a top bloke, great captain, did everything for their careers.
The problem is most of the other people BBC have employed have not much more idea. Tuffers, Vaughan, etc talking about T20 tactics is painful. Occasionally they have Tymal Mills on, who does actually know.
Compare to Sky who replaced the old guard with the likes of Eoin Morgan, Kumar Sangakkara, Dinesh Karthik, who are top drawer.
I'm a cricket traditionalist. I don't like T20 and love test cricket, so I was never going to agree with the Boycott decision. But I agree with what you've written from a neutral point of view.
Starmers response to the ECHR question was another open goal missed .
He should have made it clear that the only European countries not in the ECHR are Russia and Belarus and do people want the UK sharing that company.
He needs to do better in the final leaders debate .
We are going to get full on anti ECHR from Farage in this campaign
...and from Rishi. Two peas, one pod.
We will run out of things to leave at some point.
We could leave the Commonwealth - after all, it's full of foreigners?
We should remove voting rights in national elections from non-citizens.
So disenfranchise Commonwealth and Irish people resident here. Why?
Because the only people who should get a vote are those who have committed to the future of the country. If a Commonwealth or Irish citizen wants to take part in the decision making process for the future of our country then they should commit to UK citizenship.
I would also remove the vote from ex-pats who have permanently settled in other countries.
Brilliant idea. Wouldn’t stoke any fires in the Six Counties at all. “You can vote if you commit to U.K. citizenship”. Will go down a storm in Derry and West Belfast that will.
We can keep the exception for Irish citizens but non-reciprocal voting rights for everyone in the Commonwealth is an anachronism.
No taxation without representation!
You can try that argument in the US, but you won't get far.
Commonwealth citizens living in the UK pay tax to HMRC.
So do French, German and US citizens. They don't get the vote so why should Jamaicans or Indians?
I was amazed at how many of the UK-based Indian IT staff we had working for the bank had vote in the EU Ref. Every one who told me how they voted, voted Leave, including one who thought his vote wouldn't have counted because he was in a pro-Remain constituency.
In spite of the fact they voted Leave I would still contend they should not have had that vote unless they were British citizens. I also believe that ex-pats settled in other countries should not have had the vote.
I am with you on the first point.
On the second point, I believe every British citizen should have the vote, and pay UK taxes* wherever they live.
(*Offset FATCA-style by any local taxes they pay.)
I can go for that. GThe US get many things wrong but I think their attitude to expats and taxes is generally the right one.
This cannot, cannot, cannot be repeated often enough: Reform will hit harder than polls suggest because they weren’t on the ballot last time in vast majority of Tory seats, and they will now in all of them. The implications of this still haven’t been taken in. Lethal for Tories.
This cannot, cannot, cannot be repeated often enough: Reform will hit harder than polls suggest because they weren’t on the ballot last time in vast majority of Tory seats, and they will now in all of them. The implications of this still haven’t been taken in. Lethal for Tories.
There's still a day for Reform and the Tories to make a coupon deal. That would be a game changer.
This cannot, cannot, cannot be repeated often enough: Reform will hit harder than polls suggest because they weren’t on the ballot last time in vast majority of Tory seats, and they will now in all of them. The implications of this still haven’t been taken in. Lethal for Tories.
Reform were more of a problem for the Consertives while Richard Tice was the leader in some seats if the current polling was nailed on, now Nigel Farage is the leader its become a far bigger problem for the Labour party under Keir Starmer. Just how many votes will he attract from former Labour voters who switched to UKIP first before going Conservative in 2019 while the narrative is that Labour is so far ahead in the polls they cannot possible lose and its all about whether they can achieve a record breaking majority that beats Tony Blairs result in 1997?
According to Betfair's horsey forum, the race shown is not the same one he places the bet on, and it is filmed at Epsom, the day before Sir Ivor won the Derby with Lester up.
As an aside, not in the story, the rules may need to be tightened up to cover targeted advertising so it comes under constituency spending limits rather than national ones. Trouble is, if Party X spends £50,000 on adverts to voters in Dunny-on-the-Wold that is one thing but £250,000 on all the rotten boroughs, or an entire region, there is an obvious loophole.
"A rose by any other name would smell as sweet, said Juliet, but the legislature of Illinois does not agree. It believes that the word “offender” should now be replaced by the term “justice-impacted individual.”"
Not sure what you mean but I hope it is not connected to the widely condemned milk shake attack on Farage
Its a joke. Besides Farage appears to have set up the milkshake "attack" for publicity. And it worked beautifully.
You are a lib dem candidate joking about milkshakes attacks?
"Milkshake attacks". The work of the milkshake Taliban? Take it easy BigG. Think instead about Labour chaos in Wales and how that might play out in the GE and deliver Rishi a hatful of seats, or maybe not.
This cannot, cannot, cannot be repeated often enough: Reform will hit harder than polls suggest because they weren’t on the ballot last time in vast majority of Tory seats, and they will now in all of them. The implications of this still haven’t been taken in. Lethal for Tories.
Reform were more of a problem for the Consertives while Richard Tice was the leader in some seats if the current polling was nailed on, now Nigel Farage is the leader its become a far bigger problem for the Labour party under Keir Starmer. Just how many votes will he attract from former Labour voters who switched to UKIP first before going Conservative in 2019 while the narrative is that Labour is so far ahead in the polls they cannot possible lose and its all about whether they can achieve a record breaking majority that beats Tony Blairs result in 1997?
On that YouGov poll - it probably didn't capture the full impact of Farage's announcement, as it was taken on that day and the next.
Just for fun, increasing each of the changes from last time by 50%, we'd have: Old methodology: Lab 44.5, Con 16.5, RefUK 19.5 New methodology Lab 38, Con 18, RefUK 18.5
It is only a bit of fun, particularly because rounding/others means the five party changes under the new methodology add up to -3.
This is a real nightmare for the Tories, particularly if they suffer further from "Liargate". On these figures it is a huge plus for Labour.
Jeremy Hunt speaks up and it's like a breath of fresh air The evidence of Britain is that elections are always won from the centre ground and I think in a two-party system that will always be the case. We’ll always be a broad church, and I think that’s a good thing.
There it is. The Conservative Party is still in there somewhere. They missed a trick in not making him leader. Too late now, just another of history's "what if"s.
Trouble is that the Lib Dems have often tried being the centre party. It's not won them any elections. You need a large base of voters to win elections. Being on the centre won't guarantee you that.
The LD's have always done best electorally, since the 1990's, when they have been seen to be slightly to the left of Labour, a lesson they will probably have to relearn all over again under Starmer, and challenging any of his more authoritarian policies, as they did under Blair.
Davey will have to shift his stance a little, but that he's surprised me on the upside in this election so far.
That was before the Greens though - LDs tried it in 2019 and lost their leader! The space is a liberal centre-right party if the tories go as cuckoo as it expected.
An economically centre right, pro EU and socially liberal party was the LDs led by Clegg in 2015, it got 7.9% of the vote and 8 MPs
Also worth pointing out that if the Tories continue to Tory and LDs end up as the official opposition it's a once in a lifetime chance to displace the Tories - if they put forward a sensible centre-right platform while Reform take over the Tories come 2029 they may remain the OO.
If the LDs put forward a centre right platform they lose their SDP, social democratic wing to Labour or even the Greens and are back under 10% again as in 2015 with no Labour tactical votes for them either in their target seats.
They won't become the OO on that. The only party that could replace the Tories as the OO to Starmer Labour is a party led by Farage, as around 30%+ will vote for a socially conservative, pro Brexit, rightwing party
I don't think the left/right axis is very meaningful anymore to British politics. What defines a party more is its attitude to internal democracy, individual liberty and authoritarianism.
That's why LDs can appeal to the free enterprise right, a group repelled by Brexit protectionism, while still appealing to Greens by being decentralised. It is a space between the authoritarian centralising philosophy of Labour and the reactionary social conservatism, culture war and Autarky of Reform and Conservatives.
It isn't a vast space as most Britons don't really value freedom, and prefer the smack of firm government,, but it is one that spreads well outside of current LD support, particularly to one nation Conservatives.
Just a shame the LibDems conspicuously fail to demonstrate or even apply much of such a philosophy to how their own party is run, nowadays.
Not sure what you mean but I hope it is not connected to the widely condemned milk shake attack on Farage
Its a joke. Besides Farage appears to have set up the milkshake "attack" for publicity. And it worked beautifully.
You are a lib dem candidate joking about milkshakes attacks?
"Milkshake attacks". The work of the milkshake Taliban? Take it easy BigG. Think instead about Labour chaos in Wales and how that might play out in the GE and deliver Rishi a hatful of seats, or maybe not.
Good morning
The sad part about Gething is yet again another politician, this time a labour First Minister, deciding to ignore a vonc and carry on and at the same time has received the backing of Starmer
It will not change the GE result of a wipe out of conservative mps, but what is depressing is there seems to be no consequences for the lack of integrity amongst our leaders.
I notice Drakeford had a furious row with his colleagues over dropping the change to Welsh children's school holiday times as he arrogantly said it was his legacy, one which he hadn't been put out to public consultation and now the Welsh government has and found it to be unpopular especially with teachers so much so it will not be revisited until after the 2026 Senedd election
On another issue Ed Davey has come out this morning condemning labours vat raid on private schools which the Lib Dems do not support
Comments
And you've always had a fash curious bias.
(1) Lots of places that say they close at 11pm actually don't, they mean they want to go home at 11pm and aren't interested in you after about 10.30pm
(2) A shitload of people order crap from Dominos and Papa John's
(3) Curry restaurants, if the lights are still on, will often be your saviour.
So, yes, I'm having a chicken bhuna and a beer at 10.58pm. Nice.
He'll win Clacton.
By far the best LD peformances that I can remember were from 2000-2010 when they were challenging New Labour from a slightly more leftward, if not always more statist, position, as mentioned.
He wouldn't go to prison immediately (or if due to start right away he'd be let out during his appeals), so if it is possible it might be an idea to sentence to a few months of jail time (which seems like it would be warranted given lack of remorse etc), but set it to start after the US election.
I just cannot understand why anyone would joke about politicians being milkshake attacked, especially when many mps have condemned the attack on Farage
The Italian Christian Democrats dissolved into the Democratic Party, which is the main centre left opposition in Italy and Forza Italia, who are a pivotal part of Meloni's governing coalition. The Dutch Christian Democrats were part of the Rutte government. The French Socialists are now part of Melenchon's block which was second in the legislative elections.
Even in Canada Reform only got elected by merging with the rump of the Canadian Tories to form today's Canadian Conservative Party.
Farage can't ever elect a Reform government without Tory support either
It's the sign of a young left that really has got nothing much to say.
Knew a chap once who ran a fried chicken place, poor hygeine rating and bad service, but was open very late to catch people coming out of clubs etc. Had a loose idea of adherence to his hours of operation and other licensing conditions, and would direct people to the rear to make purchases past 1am. When caught he'd just say "What am I supposed to do, not feed hungry people?"
The answer being, yes.
It was an old style waitress service one. Great fun was had, despite having to clean out deep fat fryers.
Table service Wimpys are still big in South Africa.
I've walked past that Wimpy enough times but never actually been in. Can barely believe its still a thing - Wimpy opened and quickly closed in Rochdale when I was something like 13. An eternity ago...
Fond memories of Queensway in the 1980's, and the then down-at-heel and shabby chic of the area.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/bbc-accused-double-standards-failing-drop-cricket-pundit/
https://locations.wimpy.uk.com/england.html
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_defunct_fast-food_restaurant_chains
Wimpy Grills – founded in Bloomington, Indiana, in 1934, it eventually grew to 25 locations within the United States and 1,500 outside of the US. The international locations were eventually sold to J. Lyons and Co. in the United Kingdom, which remains open, while all of the American locations eventually closed by 1978..
Has branches in Kuwait and the UAE too, apparently.
https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1798477070978232653?s=46
I suspect a fair few of the Red Wall Tories will be secretly hoping that he fails to win.
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1375572/
Shame there aren’t many votes to be gained by simply being a nice, normal* human being, which probably explains why the election campaign has veered between dullness and nastiness just like [snark redacted].
(*as normal as possible for a senior politician, anyway)
Apologies in advance for triggering the inevitable *YeBbUt PoSt OfFiCe* klaxon by praising SED again.
Did rather well in 2010 though...
As Farage is now playing the role of the rightwing conscience of the Sunak Tories
I thought that Farage would have no effect on the remaining Tory vote. That what remain are traditionalist types who are as sceptical of Reform as they are Labour, and that there was a hard floor of around 20%.
But no. This YouGov poll...
"A rose by any other name would smell as sweet, said Juliet, but the legislature of Illinois does not agree. It believes that the word “offender” should now be replaced by the term “justice-impacted individual.”"
https://www.takimag.com/article/the-root-cause-of-crime/
Don’t you feel any guilt?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mumbai_North_West_Lok_Sabha_constituency
Majority of 48 on a turnout of 951,580. Electorate of 1.74m.
If that translated to national elections if Farage overtook the Tories on votes this time, if he squeezed the Tories further under FPTP at the general election after next or took them over not impossible Farage could be UK PM within a decade if a Starmer government proved unpopular and managed the economy poorly
A bit slow, but satisfying. Production aesthetic was great, and Akira Ifukube's legendary theme is always a joy to re-encounter.
PB aviation types will like the recreation of the
J7W canard fighter.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyushu_J7W_Shinden
Edit: Looks like at least 15 parties achieved a single seat in the Indian election, and some of those are alliances of multiple regional parties.
Indian elections must be absolutely bonkers.
But seriously, all about turnout now. The Conservatives have to drag anyone who has consistently voted Tory over the last 30 years into the polling place. That's what survival will take. 100% turnout for that group.
They had no right to win from there. They probably should have been destroyed from that point.
Thing is, Corbin probably woulda won.
and that would have been a catastrophe that would have supercharged the right, by now.
Counterfactuals, eh?!
Instead we get a competent centre-left government who can look forward to a decent honeymoon, before a couple of terms in power. Maybe three?
Unless they fuck it up. Which I doubt they will.
I'm a landlord of a cotswold pub, over the last few days obviously election talk has been very prominent amongst customers.
We are North Cotswolds which is very Tory.
Overall responce from alit of people is Lib Dems are expected to do well. Not out out strong support but rather lesser of all evils, Cheltenham, North Cotswolds all in with a shout.
Very few are out and out for Farage but a hell of a lot are considering him.
Sunak went down a storm here in the debate, the response was very very positive for him, he won't have won any traditional Labour voters over to him, but a lot of on the fence conservatives are more confident in him.
It seems alot will follow how reform do in the next week or so, if they don't make inroads the the Tory vote will hold up a lot better than expected.
I am sure that he has heard worse language in his time in nick.
https://x.com/SophyRidgeSky/status/1798457009416609967?t=HDkcN8U2tKoa-p4MpYy1dw&s=19
They won't become the OO on that. The only party that could replace the Tories as the OO to Starmer Labour is a party led by Farage, as around 30%+ will vote for a socially conservative, pro Brexit, rightwing party
That's why LDs can appeal to the free enterprise right, a group repelled by Brexit protectionism, while still appealing to Greens by being decentralised. It is a space between the authoritarian centralising philosophy of Labour and the reactionary social conservatism, culture war and Autarky of Reform and Conservatives.
It isn't a vast space as most Britons don't really value freedom, and prefer the smack of firm government,, but it is one that spreads well outside of current LD support, particularly to one nation Conservatives.
There might be a market for a party with such an approach under PR, under FPTP it would get steamrollered by Labour and the Reform/Conservative main block
Bizarre video from the BBC archive about a faux-posh but poor young couple who've decided to "live beyond their means".
"1968: A LIFE of NECESSARY EXTRAVAGANCE | Man Alive | Weird and Wonderful | BBC Archive"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=58g_vJLBmxU
The problem is most of the other people BBC have employed have not much more idea. Tuffers, Vaughan, etc talking about T20 tactics is painful. Occasionally they have Tymal Mills on, who does actually know.
Compare to Sky who replaced the old guard with the likes of Eoin Morgan, Kumar Sangakkara, Dinesh Karthik, who are top drawer.
This cannot, cannot, cannot be repeated often enough: Reform will hit harder than polls suggest because they weren’t on the ballot last time in vast majority of Tory seats, and they will now in all of them. The implications of this still haven’t been taken in. Lethal for Tories.
https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/shedding-light-on-the-uk-general-election/
Analysis of political parties' spending on digital adverts reveals the key election battlegrounds are in the South East.
https://news.sky.com/story/which-constituencies-are-being-targeted-the-most-by-online-political-adverts-13148413
As an aside, not in the story, the rules may need to be tightened up to cover targeted advertising so it comes under constituency spending limits rather than national ones. Trouble is, if Party X spends £50,000 on adverts to voters in Dunny-on-the-Wold that is one thing but £250,000 on all the rotten boroughs, or an entire region, there is an obvious loophole.
She’ll make any fines back and some with the extra custom her onlyfans site gets.
Just for fun, increasing each of the changes from last time by 50%, we'd have:
Old methodology:
Lab 44.5, Con 16.5, RefUK 19.5
New methodology
Lab 38, Con 18, RefUK 18.5
It is only a bit of fun, particularly because rounding/others means the five party changes under the new methodology add up to -3.
This is a real nightmare for the Tories, particularly if they suffer further from "Liargate". On these figures it is a huge plus for Labour.
The sad part about Gething is yet again another politician, this time a labour First Minister, deciding to ignore a vonc and carry on and at the same time has received the backing of Starmer
It will not change the GE result of a wipe out of conservative mps, but what is depressing is there seems to be no consequences for the lack of integrity amongst our leaders.
I notice Drakeford had a furious row with his colleagues over dropping the change to Welsh children's school holiday times as he arrogantly said it was his legacy, one which he hadn't been put out to public consultation and now the Welsh government has and found it to be unpopular especially with teachers so much so it will not be revisited until after the 2026 Senedd election
On another issue Ed Davey has come out this morning condemning labours vat raid on private schools which the Lib Dems do not support