Cumbria PCC result in among the earlier ones, and tells us, I think, quite a bit about the fate of the current Cumbria MPs (5 Tory, 0 Labour + Tim Farron.)
Labour win with 22% swing.
No other elections in Cumbria.
The PCCs are interesting I think because in the vast majority of cases the voters don’t know the candidate from Adam, don’t really know what they will do and don’t expect them to make much difference to policing either way, therefore they are more likely to vote on purely national party lines. Best indicator for the GE.
Agree, with the caveat that turnout is low. Only fairly hardened citizens stop mowing the lawn to turn up. OTOH I know people - the moderate one nation, always Tory, backbone of community types - who voted Labour this time not through gritted teeth but thinking they are the better and more decent, in every way, option.
As I posted last night from Oxford, where Labour is in power the atmosphere is quite different, and less helpful. In Toton and Wantage (no local election this year) we're finding large numbers of people switching to Labour to get the Tories out. In Oxford absolutely nobody was talking about Sunak - it was all about punishing Labour and the LibDems for the LTN. That's likely to be a problem in London too, though I'm not expecting Hall to win.
US President Joe Biden has called Japan and India "xenophobic", grouping them together with Russia and China as countries that "don't want immigrants".
The language is undiplomatic and should be avoided but Biden's point is sound.
His point being that immigration is awesome, as Democrat mayors in cities across the US are complaining about hundreds of thousands of illegals crossing from Mexico and ending up in hotels?
No-one expects Khan to lose, but I do expect him to massively underperform the national swing as I think he's a big drag on the Labour ticket.
I expect him to mildly underperform, but Hall is a worse candidate than Shaun Bailey.
The firm picture the media present, and popular imagination holds, of London as a Labour fiefdom, has been demonstrated time and again to be wrong. Yet it persists. Shaun Bailey - hardly a towering statesman - turned out a pretty decent vote last time round.
I don’t dislike Khan as much as everyone else seems to (tbh don’t really understand why he is so disliked, at least by non-nutters/racists) but they could have done with a new and more dynamic/inspirational candidate. If Susan Hall does do well it will reflect terribly on him; she is unquestionably the worst candidate any major party has put up for the mayoralty.
There are quite a few people I know who dislike him a lot - most would be described as wanting to vote for centre parties.
That Susan Hall is a candidate for a major party speaks to the lack of depth in candidates in politics in general. I think of my relative (who I've mentioned before) - in times past he would have been hauled onto the council by his peers. And probably shoved into Parliament.
Nick Ferrari conducts a daily campaign against Khan, especially Ulez. Presumably the Standard despise him too.
The Evening Standard endorsed Khan in their editorial.
#BlackpoolSouth is a shocker for the Conservatives - their 17.5% vote share is the worst in over a century for a seat they were defending
To be fair, even Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband and Corbyn in 2017 won Blackpool South, it only went Conservative in 2019 for Boris and to get Brexit done and has reverted to type. It has been solid Labour overall since 1997
Lol. The percentage majority last night is almost twice what it was even in 1997.
You never really recovered from losing that PR job in Iraq, did you?
Here's your maximum entertainment value scenario. Trump wins GA, NV, AZ and Abu Hunter wins PA, MI, WI. All very plausible as the 2020 margin was less than 11,000 votes in all those states. Then ME goes 3-1 on Congressional districts to Biden.
Result: 269- 269 tie in the Electrical College, contingent election decided by Congress. Are you not entertained? Other variations on this drama can happen with NE splitting along Congressional districts.
David Cameron's reported as saying that British-supplied weapons can be used by Ukraine on targets in Russia. Previously there'd been a restriction on NATO weapons being used in internationally-recognised Russian territory.
Might we see Storm Shadows used against targets in Rostov soon?
No, he's not; Reuters withdrew that story.
He said - quite correctly - that Ukraine is fully justified, as a matter of self defence, and in response to Russian attacks, to strike targets in Russia. He very specifically did not say anything about the terms on which UK weapons are supplied.
If Labour lose London everything else won't count for a row of beans. It'll be the only thing anyone remembers about this set of elections.
If Khan reveals himself to be alien from Neptune at the count, everything else won't count for a row of beans. It'll be the only thing anyone remembers about this set of elections. It is approximately as likely.
Just seen that Johnson forgot his voter ID yesterday and had to go back later
Yeh. Couldn't be better as a metaphor for the final days of this rotten regime and all its clowns.
Surely a performative act in his "Boris" persona to get some news coverage.
He’s no longer in ‘any publicity is good publicity’ territory, and hardly needs to get noticed. Maybe you’re right that it’s an addiction he can’t cure, but nevertheless this incident simply adds a line to his already written obituary.
David Cameron's reported as saying that British-supplied weapons can be used by Ukraine on targets in Russia. Previously there'd been a restriction on NATO weapons being used in internationally-recognised Russian territory.
Might we see Storm Shadows used against targets in Rostov soon?
Cameron has about as much influence over Ukrainian targetting policy as do you or I.
As I posted last night from Oxford, where Labour is in power the atmosphere is quite different, and less helpful. In Toton and Wantage (no local election this year) we're finding large numbers of people switching to Labour to get the Tories out. In Oxford absolutely nobody was talking about Sunak - it was all about punishing Labour and the LibDems for the LTN. That's likely to be a problem in London too, though I'm not expecting Hall to win.
It’s still true that Labour aren’t attracting new voters in By Elections, down a couple of thousand from GE19 to yesterday in Blackpool South, as was the case in the last two By Elections. At this stage in 92-97 Parliament they were adding thousands of votes What does this mean for the GE? Low turnout?
I think so. Generally turnout in general elections seems to be down when the result is not in doubt, and when the Tories do badly.
On Betfair, turnout between 62.5-64.99% is currently favourite, at 3.45. This would be down on the 67.3% turnout at the last election, but not massively so.
The turnout in 2001 is the record to beat, at 59.1%.
Mr. Observer, the Conservative failure was intially electing Boris Johnson. All else has flowed from that.
The Tories were doing horrendously in 2019 They elected Boris and won a huge majority They sacked him And now they’re doing as badly as before
At some point people will join the dots
No. He resigned. He was not sacked. He resigned. He could have stayed. He chose not to.
In any event so what? Just because you are popular once doesn't mean you'll be popular forever. Blair had the longest political honeymoon of anyone I'm aware of but now he's the most despised politician in Britain (or maybe Truss has taken that mantle) showing that, in the overused phrase, past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
For Blair's Iraq see Johnson's PartyGate and (controversial I know) Brexit. Indeed Iraq was majority supported pre-invasion, as was Johnson's vaccine rollout & Brexit. Then it all went wrong.
No-one expects Khan to lose, but I do expect him to massively underperform the national swing as I think he's a big drag on the Labour ticket.
I expect him to mildly underperform, but Hall is a worse candidate than Shaun Bailey.
The firm picture the media present, and popular imagination holds, of London as a Labour fiefdom, has been demonstrated time and again to be wrong. Yet it persists. Shaun Bailey - hardly a towering statesman - turned out a pretty decent vote last time round.
I don’t dislike Khan as much as everyone else seems to (tbh don’t really understand why he is so disliked, at least by non-nutters/racists) but they could have done with a new and more dynamic/inspirational candidate. If Susan Hall does do well it will reflect terribly on him; she is unquestionably the worst candidate any major party has put up for the mayoralty.
There are quite a few people I know who dislike him a lot - most would be described as wanting to vote for centre parties.
That Susan Hall is a candidate for a major party speaks to the lack of depth in candidates in politics in general. I think of my relative (who I've mentioned before) - in times past he would have been hauled onto the council by his peers. And probably shoved into Parliament.
Nick Ferrari conducts a daily campaign against Khan, especially Ulez. Presumably the Standard despise him too.
Mr. Observer, the Conservative failure was intially electing Boris Johnson. All else has flowed from that.
That failure stemmed from the Brexit vote, so I'd say the Conservative failure was calling the Brexit referendum... but really what caused Leave to win that was austerity. That's the Conservative failure.
Yes. Austerity made people a bit cross, which led to the Brexit vote, which then made people cross about chaos in the commons and in-fighting, which led to Boris coming in and promising to get Brexit done, which led to a charlatan and mountebank in Number 10, which made people cross, which led to him being turfed out and an IEA ideologue briefly holding the reins of power, which made people extremely cross, which then led to Sunak giving it a try, which just made a whole bunch of already cross people a bit tired of it all. Hence results like Blackpool South.
Just seen that Johnson forgot his voter ID yesterday and had to go back later
Yeh. Couldn't be better as a metaphor for the final days of this rotten regime and all its clowns.
Surely a performative act in his "Boris" persona to get some news coverage.
Yes, clearly staged. We haven't seen the last of Boris yet, but how he engineers his comeback will be interesting. I reckon he'll try for a by-election win sometime in the middle of the next parliament amid much noise and whizz bangs. It'll totally undermine whatever leader the Tories have put in place by then, but so what?
US President Joe Biden has called Japan and India "xenophobic", grouping them together with Russia and China as countries that "don't want immigrants".
Here's your maximum entertainment value scenario. Trump wins GA, NV, AZ and Abu Hunter wins PA, MI, WI. All very plausible as the 2020 margin was less than 11,000 votes in all those states. Then ME goes 3-1 on Congressional districts to Biden.
Result: 269- 269 tie in the Electrical College, contingent election decided by Congress. Are you not entertained? Other variations on this drama can happen with NE splitting along Congressional districts.
Likely to be President Trump in that scenario as he'll have more house delegations.
As I posted last night from Oxford, where Labour is in power the atmosphere is quite different, and less helpful. In Toton and Wantage (no local election this year) we're finding large numbers of people switching to Labour to get the Tories out. In Oxford absolutely nobody was talking about Sunak - it was all about punishing Labour and the LibDems for the LTN. That's likely to be a problem in London too, though I'm not expecting Hall to win.
Mr. Observer, the Conservative failure was intially electing Boris Johnson. All else has flowed from that.
That failure stemmed from the Brexit vote, so I'd say the Conservative failure was calling the Brexit referendum... but really what caused Leave to win that was austerity. That's the Conservative failure.
Yes. Austerity made people a bit cross, which led to the Brexit vote, which then made people cross about chaos in the commons and in-fighting, which led to Boris coming in and promising to get Brexit done, which led to a charlatan and mountebank in Number 10, which made people cross, which led to him being turfed out and an IEA ideologue briefly holding the reins of power, which made people extremely cross, which then led to Sunak giving it a try, which just made a whole bunch of already cross people a bit tired of it all. Hence results like Blackpool South.
It’s still true that Labour aren’t attracting new voters in By Elections, down a couple of thousand from GE19 to yesterday in Blackpool South, as was the case in the last two By Elections. At this stage in 92-97 Parliament they were adding thousands of votes What does this mean for the GE? Low turnout?
I think so. Generally turnout in general elections seems to be down when the result is not in doubt, and when the Tories do badly.
On Betfair, turnout between 62.5-64.99% is currently favourite, at 3.45. This would be down on the 67.3% turnout at the last election, but not massively so.
The turnout in 2001 is the record to beat, at 59.1%.
It means there as many people in Blackpool South who will vote in the GE, but didn’t yesterday, as there are that did vote yesterday. It’s interesting to me why those people are going to vote Lab in the GE but didn’t bother in the By Election. There are still a mass of voters ready to be charmed, if only there were someone to charm them.
No-one expects Khan to lose, but I do expect him to massively underperform the national swing as I think he's a big drag on the Labour ticket.
I expect him to mildly underperform, but Hall is a worse candidate than Shaun Bailey.
The firm picture the media present, and popular imagination holds, of London as a Labour fiefdom, has been demonstrated time and again to be wrong. Yet it persists. Shaun Bailey - hardly a towering statesman - turned out a pretty decent vote last time round.
I don’t dislike Khan as much as everyone else seems to (tbh don’t really understand why he is so disliked, at least by non-nutters/racists) but they could have done with a new and more dynamic/inspirational candidate. If Susan Hall does do well it will reflect terribly on him; she is unquestionably the worst candidate any major party has put up for the mayoralty.
There are quite a few people I know who dislike him a lot - most would be described as wanting to vote for centre parties.
That Susan Hall is a candidate for a major party speaks to the lack of depth in candidates in politics in general. I think of my relative (who I've mentioned before) - in times past he would have been hauled onto the council by his peers. And probably shoved into Parliament.
The London Tories tried to stitch-up the candidate selection for an ex-Cameron SpAd, and their preferred candidate got into a scandal almost immediately nominations closed. Yet another failure of vetting, for such a high-profile role.
Yes, and he isn't exactly The Future, before the scandal.
I asked someone about why the parties don't use standard commercial vetting - background check, CV check and trawl through social media - and was told that it would eliminate too many. The person I asked rolled his eyes as he said that. Said that politics depended on loons and weirdos.
At some point they’ll get it. This particular example should have been a massive wake-up call to all parties.
They should have a couple of people at head office employed to go through social media etc history for MP candidates. For mayoral candidates of major cities they should really be going with the commercial services run by former spooks, who know how to find buried bodies.
The wider point is not to try and stitch-up a selection process in the first place - but if that’s what you want to do, at least have the guy properly vetted beforehand.
Here's your maximum entertainment value scenario. Trump wins GA, NV, AZ and Abu Hunter wins PA, MI, WI. All very plausible as the 2020 margin was less than 11,000 votes in all those states. Then ME goes 3-1 on Congressional districts to Biden.
Result: 269- 269 tie in the Electrical College, contingent election decided by Congress. Are you not entertained? Other variations on this drama can happen with NE splitting along Congressional districts.
The President would be elected by the House and the VP by the Senate in that scenario
The Tories were doing horrendously in 2019 They elected Boris and won a huge majority They sacked him And now they’re doing as badly as before
At some point people will join the dots
The Tories were doing horrendously in 2019 They elected Boris to Get Brexit Done won a huge majority Brexit is a shitshow And now they’re doing as badly as before
Frustrating morning as there’s a paucity of coverage of Lib Dem performance.
So far OK looking at the actual results, but not the massive outperformance we sometimes see. And not the same underperformance of Labour we’ve got used to.
Still, it looks like a thrashing but not a shellacking for the Tories. And the difference in their performance where Reform aren’t standing should encourage them they’ll get most of any swingback from Reform voters come the general.
Daisy Cooper interviewed on GMB
Lib Dem results being discussed on the politics slot as underwhelming. Of course Daisy Cooper talked them up.
So far according to BBC. Conservatives 117 councillors, LDs 114 councillors.
What would be a good result?
It is all relative to last time and the seats being contested. But they have hardly excelled so far.
As I posted last night from Oxford, where Labour is in power the atmosphere is quite different, and less helpful. In Toton and Wantage (no local election this year) we're finding large numbers of people switching to Labour to get the Tories out. In Oxford absolutely nobody was talking about Sunak - it was all about punishing Labour and the LibDems for the LTN. That's likely to be a problem in London too, though I'm not expecting Hall to win.
Toton?
Is there any impact from HS2 overhang, there?
Oxford isn't about LTN in the sense of 20mph-in-residential-streets-with-one-lane-between-parked-cars, but a general policy. Which is to get rid of vehicles in the centre - and is being implemented rather badly. The impact on businesses is noticeable.
It’s still true that Labour aren’t attracting new voters in By Elections, down a couple of thousand from GE19 to yesterday in Blackpool South, as was the case in the last two By Elections. At this stage in 92-97 Parliament they were adding thousands of votes What does this mean for the GE? Low turnout?
I think so. Generally turnout in general elections seems to be down when the result is not in doubt, and when the Tories do badly.
On Betfair, turnout between 62.5-64.99% is currently favourite, at 3.45. This would be down on the 67.3% turnout at the last election, but not massively so.
The turnout in 2001 is the record to beat, at 59.1%.
It means there as many people in Blackpool South who will vote in the GE, but didn’t yesterday, as there are that did vote yesterday. It’s interesting to me why those people are going to vote Lab in the GE but didn’t bother in the By Election. There are still a mass of voters ready to be charmed, if only there were someone to charm them.
We don't have anyone of that ilk anymore. Johnson's lustre has gone.
Mr. HYUFD, disagree entirely. The 2019 result was not pro-Johnson but anti-Corbyn. Hunt would've secured a majority, and governed better than Johnson did.
Cumbria PCC result in among the earlier ones, and tells us, I think, quite a bit about the fate of the current Cumbria MPs (5 Tory, 0 Labour + Tim Farron.)
Labour win with 22% swing.
No other elections in Cumbria.
The PCCs are interesting I think because in the vast majority of cases the voters don’t know the candidate from Adam, don’t really know what they will do and don’t expect them to make much difference to policing either way, therefore they are more likely to vote on purely national party lines. Best indicator for the GE.
Surrey might be interesting as a measure of how the LDs are doing here. I don't expect them to win the PCC but with several targets in Surrey it will be interesting to see if they progress or Labour does. Of course many of the areas they aren't targeting and turnout will be poor in areas where there were no other elections. If, in the unlikely event, they win it will be their first. I am biased knowing the candidates and realistically I don't expect it
#BlackpoolSouth is a shocker for the Conservatives - their 17.5% vote share is the worst in over a century for a seat they were defending
To be fair, even Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband and Corbyn in 2017 won Blackpool South, it only went Conservative in 2019 for Boris and to get Brexit done and has reverted to type. It has been solid Labour overall since 1997
Lol. The percentage majority last night is almost twice what it was even in 1997.
You never really recovered from losing that PR job in Iraq, did you?
The Labour voteshare in Blackpool South last night was little different to 1997 (and of course by elections generally produce bigger swings) just the split on the right between Tories and Reform boosted their voteshare.
Of course Labour hasn't so far won all the councils it got pre 1997 either, Harlow stayed blue last night for instance yet went Labour at parliamentary level in 1997 too. Although it did gain Rushmoor it didn't win then
@nickeardleybbc Tory Mp Andrea Jenkyns: “It’s looking unlikely MPs will put letters in”
She’s previously called for PM to go, but says: “We are where we are”
Surely a lot of Tory MPs will be looking at these results and be thinking why not roll the dice one last time?
What have they got to lose?
I think any sane Tory MP will be more focused on their post Parliamentary career - little point changing things when the difference is at best marginal and won’t help you personally
Richi is a drag on the ticket. Every Tory MP would stand a better chance of winning if he was not their leader.
The same could be said of many of the potential replacements!
A leader could have all the positives of Pitt, Disraeli, Churchill and Thatcher yet it wouldn't help the Conservatives because its the lockdown parties and Dizzy Lizzy's economic experiment which are being voted against
With the endless sleaze and time for a change being the icings on the cake.
I see what you did there... not mentioning the elephant in the living room: the reason why the UK has gone from being a leading G-7 economy to being the weakest G-7 economy and an also ran in global rankings.
We won´t name it, of course, but the poison will need to be lanced sometime, and the Tories own it.
A country with full employment and pay rises.
As opposed to the mass unemployment and pension cuts you predicted.
Its comical that someone who doesn't even live in this country and who has been so repeatedly wrong continues to be so obsessed by something which everyone else is moving on from.
You might also compare the PMIs of the UK and the EuroZone as to current economic conditions.
This idea that Keir Starmer and Labour are going to do badly is, I suspect, incorrect.
It probably doesn’t matter how ‘nice’ the economy looks this autumn, people won’t remember that. Just like 1997 when the economy was also in rude health, they will remember what happened before. In this case a whole series of clusterfucks, some of which weren’t of the tories’ making but for which they will get tarnished. A global pandemic, Ukraine, Israel-Palestine, Partygate, the death of HMQ, ‘challenges’ with Brexit, and that hideous period when Liz Truss introduced the most bizarre budget in living memory - thus screwing everyone’s mortgages - not to mention a raft of sleaze, corruption, and change of leaders ...
People will look back with horror and it’s going to take quite some time to repair their damaged reputation.
Against that I don’t see how Labour can readily fail. They will make some mistakes but Keir seems like a pretty sensible fellow.
2025 local Tory candidates hoping any bloodlust against the party will be sated by the GE.
Well in 1998 the Conservatives managed a couple of hundred gains. Might be difficult next year to do that given what’s up and when it was last contested.
By next May a Starmer government could be battling strikes, inflation and slow growth and have responsiibility for immigration, it could be a different picture entirely and the Tories would get the protest vote for the first time in over a decade.
Though I suspect it will take a year or 2 for Starmer's government to really become unpopular
No-one expects Khan to lose, but I do expect him to massively underperform the national swing as I think he's a big drag on the Labour ticket.
I expect him to mildly underperform, but Hall is a worse candidate than Shaun Bailey.
The firm picture the media present, and popular imagination holds, of London as a Labour fiefdom, has been demonstrated time and again to be wrong. Yet it persists. Shaun Bailey - hardly a towering statesman - turned out a pretty decent vote last time round.
I don’t dislike Khan as much as everyone else seems to (tbh don’t really understand why he is so disliked, at least by non-nutters/racists) but they could have done with a new and more dynamic/inspirational candidate. If Susan Hall does do well it will reflect terribly on him; she is unquestionably the worst candidate any major party has put up for the mayoralty.
There are quite a few people I know who dislike him a lot - most would be described as wanting to vote for centre parties.
That Susan Hall is a candidate for a major party speaks to the lack of depth in candidates in politics in general. I think of my relative (who I've mentioned before) - in times past he would have been hauled onto the council by his peers. And probably shoved into Parliament.
The London Tories tried to stitch-up the candidate selection for an ex-Cameron SpAd, and their preferred candidate got into a scandal almost immediately nominations closed. Yet another failure of vetting, for such a high-profile role.
Yes, and he isn't exactly The Future, before the scandal.
I asked someone about why the parties don't use standard commercial vetting - background check, CV check and trawl through social media - and was told that it would eliminate too many. The person I asked rolled his eyes as he said that. Said that politics depended on loons and weirdos.
At some point they’ll get it. This particular example should have been a massive wake-up call to all parties.
They should have a couple of people at head office employed to go through social media etc history for MP candidates. For mayoral candidates of major cities they should really be going with the commercial services run by former spooks, who know how to find buried bodies.
The wider point is not to try and stitch-up a selection process in the first place - but if that’s what you want to do, at least have the guy properly vetted beforehand.
Yup - they are not even doing the basic job vetting stuff, at any level, that I can see.
Labour's probable landslide will get them a whole raft of people who will turn out to be... interesting.
Mr. Observer, the Conservative failure was intially electing Boris Johnson. All else has flowed from that.
The Tories were doing horrendously in 2019 They elected Boris and won a huge majority They sacked him And now they’re doing as badly as before
At some point people will join the dots
If you win with a pack of lies, don’t do the things you promised, and don’t behave as you tell others, there are consequences. As are now playing out.
We we can disagree on that, but the initial point made was ‘it all went wrong when Boris was made leader’ which ignores the fact that the Tories are in the same position now as they were before him; a mess. They had just hit 9% in the Euro Elections, and it only got better when he was made leader, the worse when someone replaced him. It seems a ridiculous thing to think, given the facts, that the high point, the success, was the bad move when the before and after were existential crises
David Cameron's reported as saying that British-supplied weapons can be used by Ukraine on targets in Russia. Previously there'd been a restriction on NATO weapons being used in internationally-recognised Russian territory.
Might we see Storm Shadows used against targets in Rostov soon?
No, he's not; Reuters withdrew that story.
He said - quite correctly - that Ukraine is fully justified, as a matter of self defence, and in response to Russian attacks, to strike targets in Russia. He very specifically did not say anything about the terms on which UK weapons are supplied.
Ah, I see. I think he's promising money to Ukraine that they can spend on buying/producing their own weapons, and here's saying Ukraine can use those weapons in Russia.
Incidentally, on a personal note, I walked 21,300 steps yesterday, roughly double my previous lazy best (there are many days when I don't get into 4 figures). Nothing like elections for getting you into shape...
David Campbell Bannerman, the ex-Tory MEP and chairman of the Conservative Democratic Organisation, calls on Rishi Sunak to resign.
He tells @Telegraph : “Once again local elections under Sunak have been absolutely disastrous. A year ago we should have won seats…”
“…under him; we lost 1,000 councillors. This time is the worst performance in 40 years, so far.
“Sunak is not a natural campaigner and wasn’t even seen campaigning. The lesson is clear: enough of this disastrous, visionless, vacuous leadership. Rishi must go and go now….”
“…This is a reality check for Conservative MPs: enough avoidance of the problem. If you don’t dump Sunak now the party is finished for at least a decade or more and the country is in danger under a hard Left woke Labour. Do the necessary and do it quickly!”
That would be the same DCB who was a UKIP MEP for many years?
Mr. Observer, the Conservative failure was intially electing Boris Johnson. All else has flowed from that.
The Tories were doing horrendously in 2019 They elected Boris and won a huge majority They sacked him And now they’re doing as badly as before
At some point people will join the dots
In 2019 Johnson could still sell the credulous Brexit unicorns and the performance that he was a good geezer.
Now the ongoing, baleful impact of his oven-ready Brexit becomes clearer every day - worst performing economy in the G7, anyone? - and the pandemic and the crucible of No. 10 showed us his true character.
2025 local Tory candidates hoping any bloodlust against the party will be sated by the GE.
Well in 1998 the Conservatives managed a couple of hundred gains. Might be difficult next year to do that given what’s up and when it was last contested.
By next May a Starmer government could be battling strikes, inflation and slow growth and have responsiibility for immigration, it could be a different picture entirely and the Tories would get the protest vote for the first time in over a decade.
Though I suspect it will take a year or 2 for Starmer's government to really become unpopular
Andrew Neill reckons 6 months
Well he would.
I suspect it will be a long honeymoon.
This really has been a horror show in this country. I suspect it will be at least 3 General Elections before the Conservatives return to power and it may take 20 years before the damage to their reputation is restored.
US President Joe Biden has called Japan and India "xenophobic", grouping them together with Russia and China as countries that "don't want immigrants".
Not a good diplomatic statement but to be re elected Biden will need immigrant votes so electorally it will likely be less damaging, if your main aim is tighter border control and fewer immigrants you almost certainly voted for Trump in 2020 anyway
As I posted last night from Oxford, where Labour is in power the atmosphere is quite different, and less helpful. In Toton and Wantage (no local election this year) we're finding large numbers of people switching to Labour to get the Tories out. In Oxford absolutely nobody was talking about Sunak - it was all about punishing Labour and the LibDems for the LTN. That's likely to be a problem in London too, though I'm not expecting Hall to win.
Toton?
Is there any impact from HS2 overhang, there?
Oxford isn't about LTN in the sense of 20mph-in-residential-streets-with-one-lane-between-parked-cars, but a general policy. Which is to get rid of vehicles in the centre - and is being implemented rather badly. The impact on businesses is noticeable.
Cambridge did this years ago. Oxford are just copying.
It’s still true that Labour aren’t attracting new voters in By Elections, down a couple of thousand from GE19 to yesterday in Blackpool South, as was the case in the last two By Elections. At this stage in 92-97 Parliament they were adding thousands of votes What does this mean for the GE? Low turnout?
Mr. Observer, the Conservative failure was intially electing Boris Johnson. All else has flowed from that.
That failure stemmed from the Brexit vote, so I'd say the Conservative failure was calling the Brexit referendum... but really what caused Leave to win that was austerity. That's the Conservative failure.
I would disagree. I actually think this situation was inevitable for the Tories under any referendum result. Johnson wanted No.10 and he was going to get it. He might have taken a bit of a hit if he backed the wrong horse but given things were likely to get worse for Cameron whatever the result and with a split party and that Johnson was still, at that time, the blue eyed boy for too many Tories, he was going to get into power and everything we have seen since would have devleoped in a very similar way.
I actually think the biggest cause of the last few years was the decision by Hague in 1998 to let the party members be involved in choosing the leader.
Mr. Observer, the Conservative failure was intially electing Boris Johnson. All else has flowed from that.
The Tories were doing horrendously in 2019 They elected Boris and won a huge majority They sacked him And now they’re doing as badly as before
At some point people will join the dots
If you win with a pack of lies, don’t do the things you promised, and don’t behave as you tell others, there are consequences. As are now playing out.
We we can disagree on that, but the initial point made was ‘it all went wrong when Boris was made leader’ which ignores the fact that the Tories are in the same position now as they were before him; a mess. They had just hit 9% in the Euro Elections, and it only got better when he was made leader, the worse when someone replaced him. It seems a ridiculous thing to think, given the facts, that the high point, the success, was the bad move when the before and after were existential crises
Labour learned, eventually, from its mistake in picking Corbyn. Whether the Tories learn from their mistakes remains to be seen. But putting Johnson anywhere near power was among their biggest, not least because it was all so obviously foreseeable, and foreseen.
Mr. Observer, the Conservative failure was intially electing Boris Johnson. All else has flowed from that.
The Tories were doing horrendously in 2019 They elected Boris and won a huge majority They sacked him And now they’re doing as badly as before
At some point people will join the dots
If you win with a pack of lies, don’t do the things you promised, and don’t behave as you tell others, there are consequences. As are now playing out.
We we can disagree on that, but the jnitisl point made was ‘it all went wrong when Boris was made leader’ which ignores the fact that the Tories are in the sand position now as they were then, a mess, and it only got better when he was made leader, and worse when he stopped. It seems a ridiculous thing to think, given the facts
If Boris had behaved himself then he would still be Prime Minister and the Conservatives would be ahead in the polls.
He had the opportunity but he threw it away because he was unwilling/unable to learn from mistakes or pay attention to warning signs.
What happened after he left office might not be his fault but it cannot be undone by Boris becoming leader again.
A quick scan suggests PB is back, thankfully. It was spammed with utter drivel last night. Absolutely shocking on election night when people have bets on, on a betting site. Was completely unbearable.
David Campbell Bannerman, the ex-Tory MEP and chairman of the Conservative Democratic Organisation, calls on Rishi Sunak to resign.
He tells @Telegraph : “Once again local elections under Sunak have been absolutely disastrous. A year ago we should have won seats…”
“…under him; we lost 1,000 councillors. This time is the worst performance in 40 years, so far.
“Sunak is not a natural campaigner and wasn’t even seen campaigning. The lesson is clear: enough of this disastrous, visionless, vacuous leadership. Rishi must go and go now….”
“…This is a reality check for Conservative MPs: enough avoidance of the problem. If you don’t dump Sunak now the party is finished for at least a decade or more and the country is in danger under a hard Left woke Labour. Do the necessary and do it quickly!”
That would be the same DCB who was a UKIP MEP for many years?
Quite. He wrote their 2010 manifesto and stood for their leadership twice.
He is also distantly related to one of our great PMs from history, Henry Campbell-Bannerman, although I'm not sure of the exact relationship...?
2025 local Tory candidates hoping any bloodlust against the party will be sated by the GE.
Well in 1998 the Conservatives managed a couple of hundred gains. Might be difficult next year to do that given what’s up and when it was last contested.
By next May a Starmer government could be battling strikes, inflation and slow growth and have responsiibility for immigration, it could be a different picture entirely and the Tories would get the protest vote for the first time in over a decade.
Though I suspect it will take a year or 2 for Starmer's government to really become unpopular
Andrew Neill reckons 6 months
There's something a bit ghoulish about this take by the British Right (one hears it a lot): we've left the country in such a shit state that the damage is irrecoverable and so Labour are screwed.
Ex cabinet minister Justine Greening tells Sky News that the results do not mean Rishi Sunak is safe - and that MPs will take the weekend to work out whether to make a move
It’s still true that Labour aren’t attracting new voters in By Elections, down a couple of thousand from GE19 to yesterday in Blackpool South, as was the case in the last two By Elections. At this stage in 92-97 Parliament they were adding thousands of votes What does this mean for the GE? Low turnout?
The Blackpool South result is consistent with Labour winning very comfortably at the General Election.
And South East Staffordshire… Labour were gaining seats by adding votes from 92, whereas now they’re gaining them whilst losing votes. I dont say it means they won’t win comfortably, but it is a difference
Mr. Observer, the Conservative failure was intially electing Boris Johnson. All else has flowed from that.
The Tories were doing horrendously in 2019 They elected Boris and won a huge majority They sacked him And now they’re doing as badly as before
At some point people will join the dots
In 2019 Johnson could still sell the credulous Brexit unicorns and the performance that he was a good geezer.
Now the ongoing, baleful impact of his oven-ready Brexit becomes clearer every day - worst performing economy in the G7, anyone? - and the pandemic and the crucible of No. 10 showed us his true character.
It's over, he's done.
I didn't have any particularly strong qualms about either Parker (Labour) or Street (crypto-Conservative) winning the West Midlands mayoral election and so was going to vote with my heart for one of the minor party candidates. But Boris's endorsement of Street swung it for me, and so I voted Labour for the first time in my life.
No-one expects Khan to lose, but I do expect him to massively underperform the national swing as I think he's a big drag on the Labour ticket.
I expect him to mildly underperform, but Hall is a worse candidate than Shaun Bailey.
The firm picture the media present, and popular imagination holds, of London as a Labour fiefdom, has been demonstrated time and again to be wrong. Yet it persists. Shaun Bailey - hardly a towering statesman - turned out a pretty decent vote last time round.
I don’t dislike Khan as much as everyone else seems to (tbh don’t really understand why he is so disliked, at least by non-nutters/racists) but they could have done with a new and more dynamic/inspirational candidate. If Susan Hall does do well it will reflect terribly on him; she is unquestionably the worst candidate any major party has put up for the mayoralty.
There are quite a few people I know who dislike him a lot - most would be described as wanting to vote for centre parties.
That Susan Hall is a candidate for a major party speaks to the lack of depth in candidates in politics in general. I think of my relative (who I've mentioned before) - in times past he would have been hauled onto the council by his peers. And probably shoved into Parliament.
The London Tories tried to stitch-up the candidate selection for an ex-Cameron SpAd, and their preferred candidate got into a scandal almost immediately nominations closed. Yet another failure of vetting, for such a high-profile role.
Yes, and he isn't exactly The Future, before the scandal.
I asked someone about why the parties don't use standard commercial vetting - background check, CV check and trawl through social media - and was told that it would eliminate too many. The person I asked rolled his eyes as he said that. Said that politics depended on loons and weirdos.
At some point they’ll get it. This particular example should have been a massive wake-up call to all parties.
They should have a couple of people at head office employed to go through social media etc history for MP candidates. For mayoral candidates of major cities they should really be going with the commercial services run by former spooks, who know how to find buried bodies.
The wider point is not to try and stitch-up a selection process in the first place - but if that’s what you want to do, at least have the guy properly vetted beforehand.
Yup - they are not even doing the basic job vetting stuff, at any level, that I can see.
Labour's probable landslide will get them a whole raft of people who will turn out to be... interesting.
Oh there will almost certainly be another Jared O’Mara in there somewhere if they get 400 seats - which should have been Labour’s vetting wake-up call. Possibly the most unsuitable MP in living memory.
The party HQs appear blinded by ideology over pragmatism, and need to find impartial investigators to keep them in check and be able to say no to the higher-ups.
@nickeardleybbc Tory Mp Andrea Jenkyns: “It’s looking unlikely MPs will put letters in”
She’s previously called for PM to go, but says: “We are where we are”
Surely a lot of Tory MPs will be looking at these results and be thinking why not roll the dice one last time?
What have they got to lose?
I think any sane Tory MP will be more focused on their post Parliamentary career - little point changing things when the difference is at best marginal and won’t help you personally
Richi is a drag on the ticket. Every Tory MP would stand a better chance of winning if he was not their leader.
Counter argument who else is
1) stupid enough to stand and take the blame for the forthcoming defeat 2) isn’t equally repulsive to a different section of the Tory party base 3) can win a membership vote
Mr. Observer, the Conservative failure was intially electing Boris Johnson. All else has flowed from that.
The Tories were doing horrendously in 2019 They elected Boris and won a huge majority They sacked him And now they’re doing as badly as before
At some point people will join the dots
If you win with a pack of lies, don’t do the things you promised, and don’t behave as you tell others, there are consequences. As are now playing out.
We we can disagree on that, but the jnitisl point made was ‘it all went wrong when Boris was made leader’ which ignores the fact that the Tories are in the sand position now as they were then, a mess, and it only got better when he was made leader, and worse when he stopped. It seems a ridiculous thing to think, given the facts
If Boris had behaved himself then he would still be Prime Minister and the Conservatives would be ahead in the polls.
He had the opportunity but he threw it away because he was unwilling/unable to learn from mistakes or pay attention to warning signs.
What happened after he left office might not be his fault but it cannot be undone by Boris becoming leader again.
I’m not saying he should be lesser again, but I disagree that him being leader in the first place caused the Tories problems. That claim is easily defeated by pointing out the state they were in before he was PM
But like saying Leicester City’s problems were all caused by Ranieiri winning them the league
Mr. Observer, the Conservative failure was intially electing Boris Johnson. All else has flowed from that.
That failure stemmed from the Brexit vote, so I'd say the Conservative failure was calling the Brexit referendum... but really what caused Leave to win that was austerity. That's the Conservative failure.
I don’t think that pre-Austerity the great British people would have been massively enamoured of the EU. The general attitude of the public has always been indifferent at best towards all things Europe.
I also tend to be wary of suggestions that some untried or rejected alternatives would have led to a radically different outcome. Experience tends to suggest otherwise. There’s nothing to say that had we continued in the EU the course of recent history would have been much different. The Conservatives would still be riven, the post pandemic economy would still be struggling etc. The referendum was never going to heal any fault lines in UK politics but expose them.
Mr. HYUFD, disagree entirely. The 2019 result was not pro-Johnson but anti-Corbyn. Hunt would've secured a majority, and governed better than Johnson did.
No he wouldn't, the Brexit Party vote would have been far higher had Hunt been Tory leader in 2019 and so the result would likely have been barely no change from 2017. The redwall would not have fallen either and it would have been another hung parliament most likely even with Tories maybe still most seats
Cumbria PCC result in among the earlier ones, and tells us, I think, quite a bit about the fate of the current Cumbria MPs (5 Tory, 0 Labour + Tim Farron.)
Labour win with 22% swing.
No other elections in Cumbria.
The PCCs are interesting I think because in the vast majority of cases the voters don’t know the candidate from Adam, don’t really know what they will do and don’t expect them to make much difference to policing either way, therefore they are more likely to vote on purely national party lines. Best indicator for the GE.
Agree, with the caveat that turnout is low. Only fairly hardened citizens stop mowing the lawn to turn up. OTOH I know people - the moderate one nation, always Tory, backbone of community types - who voted Labour this time not through gritted teeth but thinking they are the better and more decent, in every way, option.
PCC for the 5th time we had a choice between a Labour candidate who previously worked with the police force and is likely to stand until their retire Or a know nothing Tory career politician with low ambitions.
Strangely Durham PCC has always had a Labour PCC chair
Here's your maximum entertainment value scenario. Trump wins GA, NV, AZ and Abu Hunter wins PA, MI, WI. All very plausible as the 2020 margin was less than 11,000 votes in all those states. Then ME goes 3-1 on Congressional districts to Biden.
Result: 269- 269 tie in the Electrical College, contingent election decided by Congress. Are you not entertained? Other variations on this drama can happen with NE splitting along Congressional districts.
Your map needs NE-2 to flip to Trump (or Nebraska to switch to statewide winner takes all - which would invite Maine to do the same). Biden won NE-2 by 6.5% in 2020. He won Wisconsin by 0.6%. Of course it's possible for Biden to hold onto Wisconsin (and Penn and Michigan) while losing NE-2, but is there any reason for the swing to Trump to be so much bigger in NE-2 than in those states?
In the case of a tie House delegations will for sure vote for Trump. Another stupid US constitutional rule.
Mr. Observer, the Conservative failure was intially electing Boris Johnson. All else has flowed from that.
The Tories were doing horrendously in 2019 They elected Boris and won a huge majority They sacked him And now they’re doing as badly as before
At some point people will join the dots
If you win with a pack of lies, don’t do the things you promised, and don’t behave as you tell others, there are consequences. As are now playing out.
We we can disagree on that, but the initial point made was ‘it all went wrong when Boris was made leader’ which ignores the fact that the Tories are in the same position now as they were before him; a mess. They had just hit 9% in the Euro Elections, and it only got better when he was made leader, the worse when someone replaced him. It seems a ridiculous thing to think, given the facts, that the high point, the success, was the bad move when the before and after were existential crises
Labour learned, eventually, from its mistake in picking Corbyn. Whether the Tories learn from their mistakes remains to be seen. But putting Johnson anywhere near power was among their biggest, not least because it was all so obviously foreseeable, and foreseen.
I think we forget that within 1 month of winning the election Boris had to deal with a once in a 100 year pandemic. Who knows what would have happened if there was no pandemic..
Meanwhile, as a diversion from the elections while morning counting gets underway, the Post Office’s comedy lawyer Jarnail Singh is getting warned not to incriminate himself by the inquiry chair. …
Beer not pulling his punches.,the first question: “were you involved in a cover up?”
It’s still true that Labour aren’t attracting new voters in By Elections, down a couple of thousand from GE19 to yesterday in Blackpool South, as was the case in the last two By Elections. At this stage in 92-97 Parliament they were adding thousands of votes What does this mean for the GE? Low turnout?
The Blackpool South result is consistent with Labour winning very comfortably at the General Election.
And South East Staffordshire… Labour were gaining seats by adding votes from 92, whereas now they’re gaining them whilst losing votes. I dont say it means they won’t win comfortably, but it is a difference
2025 local Tory candidates hoping any bloodlust against the party will be sated by the GE.
Well in 1998 the Conservatives managed a couple of hundred gains. Might be difficult next year to do that given what’s up and when it was last contested.
By next May a Starmer government could be battling strikes, inflation and slow growth and have responsiibility for immigration, it could be a different picture entirely and the Tories would get the protest vote for the first time in over a decade.
Though I suspect it will take a year or 2 for Starmer's government to really become unpopular
Andrew Neill reckons 6 months
There's something a bit ghoulish about this take by the British Right (one hears it a lot): we've left the country in such a shit state that the damage is irrecoverable and so Labour are screwed.
Not so much this country but the world.
Compare the world situation of 1997 to what Starmer will have to deal with now - Russia, Middle East, China, global warming, immigration, AI.
But indeed there are also economic problems, that existed in 2010, which still haven't been resolved - trade deficit, social care, unaffordable housing, student debt.
Whereas in 1997 the UK ran a trade surplus, had affordable housing and trivial levels of student debt.
Here's your maximum entertainment value scenario. Trump wins GA, NV, AZ and Abu Hunter wins PA, MI, WI. All very plausible as the 2020 margin was less than 11,000 votes in all those states. Then ME goes 3-1 on Congressional districts to Biden.
Result: 269- 269 tie in the Electrical College, contingent election decided by Congress. Are you not entertained? Other variations on this drama can happen with NE splitting along Congressional districts.
Armando Ianoucci did this scenario in Veep. Complete with Hugh Laurie trying to get promoted from VP on the ticket to being elected President in Congress...
Mr. Observer, the Conservative failure was intially electing Boris Johnson. All else has flowed from that.
Having said that, Johnson's 2019 coalition was a thing. As people said at the time, I thought correctly, Johnson was the master of all he surveyed. What went wrong?
I think part of it is the coalition didn't survive Johnson. The Faustian pact was to change the Conservative Party into the Boris Party. He went and there was nothing left
The party was in the process of being recast too. That realignment you saw in the red wall was real, and I think will come back to haunt Labour in future. But Boris was fundamentally too lazy, too complacent and too much of a chancer to put the work in to really complete that project. Hence why you have successors defaulting to true blue Tory low tax/small state mantras that don’t chime with the public.
You cannot level up from the economically liberal, sovereignty-maximalist, culture war right. There needs to be a level of state intervention and wealth redistribution. That involves Tory pragmatism and a return to the centre-right.
Indeed. The problem the Conservative Party faces is how to appeal in a world that wants levelling-up whilst remaining Conservative. Culture war satisfies them emotionally but prevents them from engaging with that problem. Sunak is a good second-in-command but not a Field Marshal, and they need the latter.
It’s still true that Labour aren’t attracting new voters in By Elections, down a couple of thousand from GE19 to yesterday in Blackpool South, as was the case in the last two By Elections. At this stage in 92-97 Parliament they were adding thousands of votes What does this mean for the GE? Low turnout?
The Blackpool South result is consistent with Labour winning very comfortably at the General Election.
And South East Staffordshire… Labour were gaining seats by adding votes from 92, whereas now they’re gaining them whilst losing votes. I dont say it means they won’t win comfortably, but it is a difference
Keep clutching at it!
Why is it clutching at straws to notice that Labour don’t add votes to their GE19 result when winning by elections? Don’t you have a curious mind st all? Would it mean anything if only 100 people voted but they all voted Labour?
@nickeardleybbc Tory Mp Andrea Jenkyns: “It’s looking unlikely MPs will put letters in”
She’s previously called for PM to go, but says: “We are where we are”
Surely a lot of Tory MPs will be looking at these results and be thinking why not roll the dice one last time?
What have they got to lose?
I think any sane Tory MP will be more focused on their post Parliamentary career - little point changing things when the difference is at best marginal and won’t help you personally
Richi is a drag on the ticket. Every Tory MP would stand a better chance of winning if he was not their leader.
Counter argument who else is
1) stupid enough to stand and take the blame for the forthcoming defeat 2) isn’t equally repulsive to a different section of the Tory party base 3) can win a membership vote
Someone who drives a car (not a helicopter), can use a debit card, doesn't sneer at voters and doesn't take the hump when asked a question in an interview...
Here's your maximum entertainment value scenario. Trump wins GA, NV, AZ and Abu Hunter wins PA, MI, WI. All very plausible as the 2020 margin was less than 11,000 votes in all those states. Then ME goes 3-1 on Congressional districts to Biden.
Result: 269- 269 tie in the Electrical College, contingent election decided by Congress. Are you not entertained? Other variations on this drama can happen with NE splitting along Congressional districts.
Your map needs NE-2 to flip to Trump (or Nebraska to switch to statewide winner takes all - which would invite Maine to do the same). Biden won NE-2 by 6.5% in 2020. He won Wisconsin by 0.6%. Of course it's possible for Biden to hold onto Wisconsin (and Penn and Michigan) while losing NE-2, but is there any reason for the swing to Trump to be so much bigger in NE-2 than in those states?
In the case of a tie House delegations will for sure vote for Trump. Another stupid US constitutional rule.
The Senate would likely vote for Harris as VP however, yet as you say very difficult to see how a 269-269 scenario comes about
Ex cabinet minister Justine Greening tells Sky News that the results do not mean Rishi Sunak is safe - and that MPs will take the weekend to work out whether to make a move
CYA punditry. Never admit you don't have a scooby. Play for time.
I think we forget that within 1 month of winning the election Boris had to deal with a once in a 100 year pandemic. Who knows what would have happened if there was no pandemic..
The Brexit shitshow would have been more visible, earlier...
Mr. Observer, the Conservative failure was intially electing Boris Johnson. All else has flowed from that.
The Tories were doing horrendously in 2019 They elected Boris and won a huge majority They sacked him And now they’re doing as badly as before
At some point people will join the dots
If you win with a pack of lies, don’t do the things you promised, and don’t behave as you tell others, there are consequences. As are now playing out.
We we can disagree on that, but the initial point made was ‘it all went wrong when Boris was made leader’ which ignores the fact that the Tories are in the same position now as they were before him; a mess. They had just hit 9% in the Euro Elections, and it only got better when he was made leader, the worse when someone replaced him. It seems a ridiculous thing to think, given the facts, that the high point, the success, was the bad move when the before and after were existential crises
Labour learned, eventually, from its mistake in picking Corbyn. Whether the Tories learn from their mistakes remains to be seen. But putting Johnson anywhere near power was among their biggest, not least because it was all so obviously foreseeable, and foreseen.
I think we forget that within 1 month of winning the election Boris had to deal with a once in a 100 year pandemic. Who knows what would have happened if there was no pandemic..
Of course. But people hated him for winning the referendum, and so logic & nuance ho out the window.
A superb flowchart outlining what happens next from my excellent @PortlandComms colleagues including @Tom_Rayner. Includes the 11 possible Thursdays on which an election could be held between now and January.
Mr. Observer, the Conservative failure was intially electing Boris Johnson. All else has flowed from that.
The Tories were doing horrendously in 2019 They elected Boris and won a huge majority They sacked him And now they’re doing as badly as before
At some point people will join the dots
If you win with a pack of lies, don’t do the things you promised, and don’t behave as you tell others, there are consequences. As are now playing out.
We we can disagree on that, but the initial point made was ‘it all went wrong when Boris was made leader’ which ignores the fact that the Tories are in the same position now as they were before him; a mess. They had just hit 9% in the Euro Elections, and it only got better when he was made leader, the worse when someone replaced him. It seems a ridiculous thing to think, given the facts, that the high point, the success, was the bad move when the before and after were existential crises
Labour learned, eventually, from its mistake in picking Corbyn. Whether the Tories learn from their mistakes remains to be seen. But putting Johnson anywhere near power was among their biggest, not least because it was all so obviously foreseeable, and foreseen.
I think we forget that within 1 month of winning the election Boris had to deal with a once in a 100 year pandemic. Who knows what would have happened if there was no pandemic..
Of course. But people hated him for winning the referendum, and so logic & nuance ho out the window.
Some people hated him, but he had just won a general election, suggesting he was more liked than disliked. What happened subsequently was a series of errors he made that caused opinions to shift.
Tories desperate to slow narrative taking hold- hopeful about some mayoral results. Just been sent this message on MPs Whatsapp group- from Hastings MP Sally Ann-Hart:
As I posted last night from Oxford, where Labour is in power the atmosphere is quite different, and less helpful. In Toton and Wantage (no local election this year) we're finding large numbers of people switching to Labour to get the Tories out. In Oxford absolutely nobody was talking about Sunak - it was all about punishing Labour and the LibDems for the LTN. That's likely to be a problem in London too, though I'm not expecting Hall to win.
Mr. Observer, the Conservative failure was intially electing Boris Johnson. All else has flowed from that.
The Tories were doing horrendously in 2019 They elected Boris and won a huge majority They sacked him And now they’re doing as badly as before
At some point people will join the dots
If you win with a pack of lies, don’t do the things you promised, and don’t behave as you tell others, there are consequences. As are now playing out.
We we can disagree on that, but the initial point made was ‘it all went wrong when Boris was made leader’ which ignores the fact that the Tories are in the same position now as they were before him; a mess. They had just hit 9% in the Euro Elections, and it only got better when he was made leader, the worse when someone replaced him. It seems a ridiculous thing to think, given the facts, that the high point, the success, was the bad move when the before and after were existential crises
Labour learned, eventually, from its mistake in picking Corbyn. Whether the Tories learn from their mistakes remains to be seen. But putting Johnson anywhere near power was among their biggest, not least because it was all so obviously foreseeable, and foreseen.
I think we forget that within 1 month of winning the election Boris had to deal with a once in a 100 year pandemic. Who knows what would have happened if there was no pandemic..
Of course. But people hated him for winning the referendum, and so logic & nuance ho out the window.
Some people hated him, but he had just won a general election, suggesting he was more liked than disliked. What happened subsequently was a series of errors he made that caused opinions to shift.
But before he became leader/PM, the same people who hate on him now were saying he wouldn’t win the leadership race, then he wouldn’t win a GE. If you look at PB from late summer 2019, NOM was the thinking man’s prediction. The voters made sure he won a massive majority, and they never turfed him out
Mr. Observer, the Conservative failure was intially electing Boris Johnson. All else has flowed from that.
The Tories were doing horrendously in 2019 They elected Boris and won a huge majority They sacked him And now they’re doing as badly as before
At some point people will join the dots
If you win with a pack of lies, don’t do the things you promised, and don’t behave as you tell others, there are consequences. As are now playing out.
We we can disagree on that, but the initial point made was ‘it all went wrong when Boris was made leader’ which ignores the fact that the Tories are in the same position now as they were before him; a mess. They had just hit 9% in the Euro Elections, and it only got better when he was made leader, the worse when someone replaced him. It seems a ridiculous thing to think, given the facts, that the high point, the success, was the bad move when the before and after were existential crises
Labour learned, eventually, from its mistake in picking Corbyn. Whether the Tories learn from their mistakes remains to be seen. But putting Johnson anywhere near power was among their biggest, not least because it was all so obviously foreseeable, and foreseen.
I think we forget that within 1 month of winning the election Boris had to deal with a once in a 100 year pandemic. Who knows what would have happened if there was no pandemic..
Of course. But people hated him for winning the referendum, and so logic & nuance ho out the window.
Boris's Number 10 was dysfunctional from the beginning when, rather than competent managers, Boris brought in the Vote Leave team to run the place, and also unstable because opposing them was Carrie, Dominic Cummings' nemesis.
Mr. Observer, the Conservative failure was intially electing Boris Johnson. All else has flowed from that.
That failure stemmed from the Brexit vote, so I'd say the Conservative failure was calling the Brexit referendum... but really what caused Leave to win that was austerity. That's the Conservative failure.
I don’t think that pre-Austerity the great British people would have been massively enamoured of the EU. The general attitude of the public has always been indifferent at best towards all things Europe.
I also tend to be wary of suggestions that some untried or rejected alternatives would have led to a radically different outcome. Experience tends to suggest otherwise. There’s nothing to say that had we continued in the EU the course of recent history would have been much different. The Conservatives would still be riven, the post pandemic economy would still be struggling etc. The referendum was never going to heal any fault lines in UK politics but expose them.
My take is, and always has been, that the only way to discredit Brexit would be to try it. A Remain vote in 2016 would have led to the (probably narrowly) defeated Leavers boosting UKIP in the way that (narrowly defeated) Nats flocked to the SNP in 2015. It would remain a festering boil in our national discourse.
Now we've tried it, everyone can see how Brexit has helped no-one, caused a lot of damage and inconvenience (albeit not of the apocalyptic variety predicted by over enthused pro-EU types) for practically zero tangible return. As a result is starting to deflate with a slow puncture.
(Spoiler alert) Towards the end of High Fidelity, the novel, Laura gets back with Rob because remaining split up is too much hard work. You can see where I'm going with this...
Mr. Observer, the Conservative failure was intially electing Boris Johnson. All else has flowed from that.
The Tories were doing horrendously in 2019 They elected Boris and won a huge majority They sacked him And now they’re doing as badly as before
At some point people will join the dots
If you win with a pack of lies, don’t do the things you promised, and don’t behave as you tell others, there are consequences. As are now playing out.
We we can disagree on that, but the initial point made was ‘it all went wrong when Boris was made leader’ which ignores the fact that the Tories are in the same position now as they were before him; a mess. They had just hit 9% in the Euro Elections, and it only got better when he was made leader, the worse when someone replaced him. It seems a ridiculous thing to think, given the facts, that the high point, the success, was the bad move when the before and after were existential crises
Labour learned, eventually, from its mistake in picking Corbyn. Whether the Tories learn from their mistakes remains to be seen. But putting Johnson anywhere near power was among their biggest, not least because it was all so obviously foreseeable, and foreseen.
I think we forget that within 1 month of winning the election Boris had to deal with a once in a 100 year pandemic. Who knows what would have happened if there was no pandemic..
Boris had broad support of the public during the pandemic. When he was in hospital was pretty much the peak of his ratings, and if he'd followed his own rules he may well have been steering the Tories to another victory right now.
Comments
Odds on Susan Hall as Tory leader 2025?
See you later.
https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/sadiq-khan-susan-hall-london-mayoral-election-labour-city-hall-b1154976.html
You never really recovered from losing that PR job in Iraq, did you?
Result: 269- 269 tie in the Electrical College, contingent election decided by Congress. Are you not entertained? Other variations on this drama can happen with NE splitting along Congressional districts.
He said - quite correctly - that Ukraine is fully justified, as a matter of self defence, and in response to Russian attacks, to strike targets in Russia.
He very specifically did not say anything about the terms on which UK weapons are supplied.
Rishi Sunk.
Is there any impact from HS2 overhang, there?
On Betfair, turnout between 62.5-64.99% is currently favourite, at 3.45. This would be down on the 67.3% turnout at the last election, but not massively so.
The turnout in 2001 is the record to beat, at 59.1%.
In any event so what? Just because you are popular once doesn't mean you'll be popular forever. Blair had the longest political honeymoon of anyone I'm aware of but now he's the most despised politician in Britain (or maybe Truss has taken that mantle) showing that, in the overused phrase, past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
For Blair's Iraq see Johnson's PartyGate and (controversial I know) Brexit. Indeed Iraq was majority supported pre-invasion, as was Johnson's vaccine rollout & Brexit. Then it all went wrong.
They should have a couple of people at head office employed to go through social media etc history for MP candidates. For mayoral candidates of major cities they should really be going with the commercial services run by former spooks, who know how to find buried bodies.
The wider point is not to try and stitch-up a selection process in the first place - but if that’s what you want to do, at least have the guy properly vetted beforehand.
They elected Boris to Get Brexit Done won a huge majority
Brexit is a shitshow
And now they’re doing as badly as before
The dots were joined...
Of course Labour hasn't so far won all the councils it got pre 1997 either, Harlow stayed blue last night for instance yet went Labour at parliamentary level in 1997 too. Although it did gain Rushmoor it didn't win then
As opposed to the mass unemployment and pension cuts you predicted.
Its comical that someone who doesn't even live in this country and who has been so repeatedly wrong continues to be so obsessed by something which everyone else is moving on from.
You might also compare the PMIs of the UK and the EuroZone as to current economic conditions.
It probably doesn’t matter how ‘nice’ the economy looks this autumn, people won’t remember that. Just like 1997 when the economy was also in rude health, they will remember what happened before. In this case a whole series of clusterfucks, some of which weren’t of the tories’ making but for which they will get tarnished. A global pandemic, Ukraine, Israel-Palestine, Partygate, the death of HMQ, ‘challenges’ with Brexit, and that hideous period when Liz Truss introduced the most bizarre budget in living memory - thus screwing everyone’s mortgages - not to mention a raft of sleaze, corruption, and change of leaders ...
People will look back with horror and it’s going to take quite some time to repair their damaged reputation.
Against that I don’t see how Labour can readily fail. They will make some mistakes but Keir seems like a pretty sensible fellow.
Labour's probable landslide will get them a whole raft of people who will turn out to be... interesting.
Thanks for the correction.
Now the ongoing, baleful impact of his oven-ready Brexit becomes clearer every day - worst performing economy in the G7, anyone? - and the pandemic and the crucible of No. 10 showed us his true character.
It's over, he's done.
I suspect it will be a long honeymoon.
This really has been a horror show in this country. I suspect it will be at least 3 General Elections before the Conservatives return to power and it may take 20 years before the damage to their reputation is restored.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Wirral_South_by-election
Remarkable turnout for a by-election.
The Blackpool South result is consistent with Labour winning very comfortably at the General Election.
I actually think the biggest cause of the last few years was the decision by Hague in 1998 to let the party members be involved in choosing the leader.
He had the opportunity but he threw it away because he was unwilling/unable to learn from mistakes or pay attention to warning signs.
What happened after he left office might not be his fault but it cannot be undone by Boris becoming leader again.
He is also distantly related to one of our great PMs from history, Henry Campbell-Bannerman, although I'm not sure of the exact relationship...?
Ex cabinet minister Justine Greening tells Sky News that the results do not mean Rishi Sunak is safe - and that MPs will take the weekend to work out whether to make a move
How Shakespeare is that @TSE ??
Odds on under have lengthened on Betfair...
The party HQs appear blinded by ideology over pragmatism, and need to find impartial investigators to keep them in check and be able to say no to the higher-ups.
1) stupid enough to stand and take the blame for the forthcoming defeat
2) isn’t equally repulsive to a different section of the Tory party base
3) can win a membership vote
But like saying Leicester City’s problems were all caused by Ranieiri winning them the league
I also tend to be wary of suggestions that some untried or rejected alternatives would have led to a radically different outcome. Experience tends to suggest otherwise. There’s nothing to say that had we continued in the EU the course of recent history would have been much different. The Conservatives would still be riven, the post pandemic economy would still be struggling etc. The referendum was never going to heal any fault lines in UK politics but expose them.
@JohnRentoul
Tory members oppose leadership change by 63%:
@ConHome
survey https://conservativehome.com/2024/05/03/our-survey-six-in-ten-tory-members-think-sunak-should-stay-regardless-of-the-local-election-results/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQpBx9l_PGE
Or a know nothing Tory career politician with low ambitions.
Strangely Durham PCC has always had a Labour PCC chair
In the case of a tie House delegations will for sure vote for Trump. Another stupid US constitutional rule.
Beer not pulling his punches.,the first question: “were you involved in a cover up?”
Keep clutching at it!
Compare the world situation of 1997 to what Starmer will have to deal with now - Russia, Middle East, China, global warming, immigration, AI.
But indeed there are also economic problems, that existed in 2010, which still haven't been resolved - trade deficit, social care, unaffordable housing, student debt.
Whereas in 1997 the UK ran a trade surplus, had affordable housing and trivial levels of student debt.
How hard can it be?
A superb flowchart outlining what happens next from my excellent @PortlandComms colleagues including @Tom_Rayner. Includes the 11 possible Thursdays on which an election could be held between now and January.
Tories desperate to slow narrative taking hold- hopeful about some mayoral results. Just been sent this message on MPs Whatsapp group- from Hastings MP Sally Ann-Hart:
The local election results suggest the Tories are heading for one of their worst defeats in history.
Now we've tried it, everyone can see how Brexit has helped no-one, caused a lot of damage and inconvenience (albeit not of the apocalyptic variety predicted by over enthused pro-EU types) for practically zero tangible return. As a result is starting to deflate with a slow puncture.
(Spoiler alert) Towards the end of High Fidelity, the novel, Laura gets back with Rob because remaining split up is too much hard work. You can see where I'm going with this...
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/timeline-lockdown-web.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Hartlepool_by-election