Labour has lost control of Oldham council after losing seats to independents @PA It did have small majority on council (31/60) but has been losing seats in recent elections.There’s a large Muslim population in area, where Labour may have lost support because of Gaza stance.
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week/month/yearweek/month?Bugger!
So far OK looking at the actual results, but not the massive outperformance we sometimes see. And not the same underperformance of Labour we’ve got used to.
Still, it looks like a thrashing but not a shellacking for the Tories. And the difference in their performance where Reform aren’t standing should encourage them they’ll get most of any swingback from Reform voters come the general.
What is striking me is the differentials between holds and losses. Currently, on the BBC, at 117 holds and 122 losses. If that pattern continues to hold and the Tories lose just over half of the seats they have up this will truly have been catastrophic results, way beyond the very bad that was predicted.
For the first time I do begin to wonder if the Tories can afford to go into an election led by Sunak. They made such a decision before with IDS but (a) he was an idiot and (b) that was in opposition. It is a dreadful dilemma for them.
Even in Uxbridge there was an 8% swing against the Tories, and the heat over ULEZ has faded somewhat since.
So far the LDs and Tories have each had about the same numbers of councillors elected nationally.
There was a polling failure in 2021, but it’s not a systemic, London thing.
Sharp agents will know the result from the verification, so we might get some clues from todays spin.
"If Reform do well and get a lot of votes and a reasonable representation of seats — and the Tories do very badly — then something very big is coming afterwards. Reform basically reverse took over the Conservatives and Stephen Harper became Prime Minister. If there was a model, it’s Canada. If it’s doable, I don’t know. We’ll see.”
Steady as she goes for Labour I think. Not much that is suggesting they won’t be getting a decent GE win in a few months’ time.
Whatever the historical precedent it's not a good look. A poster with Truss, Sunak and his replacement, Monseur/Madame X*, saying "who voted for them?" I know the answer and I'm not, for very good reason, involved in elections, but you get my drift.
(*although if they can find anyone as good looking as Virginie Gautreau in the Sargent painting they have a chance)
If it is a Khan is meh fine or disaster thing, as seems plausible, then we should expect a result much closer than the polls again this time.
Lib Dem results being discussed on the politics slot as underwhelming. Of course Daisy Cooper talked them up.
The only thing of note is the scale of the Blackpool win
It would be genuinely exciting if Khan loses but I really don’t expect that
So all a bit meh
What would be a good result?
Do-wop, do-wop, do-wop, do-wop, do-wop, do-wop...
Farage has always been successful at being against things but he's never had to advocate for an actual coherent political programme.
Reform is a vehicle only for Farage's limited interests. It exists as much to prevent any other party emerging to the right of the Tories as to have any success itself. He wants to use it for brinkmanship to gain some sort of concession from the leadership of the Tories, for his personal aggrandisement. It's a very different situation to UKIP.
But you need to surprise on the upside to get any coverage, and Lib Dems do so in locals more often than not. A score in line with polling would be disappointing.
Greens on the other hand are doing very well. Not good news for Labour.
26% swing in a seat like this is phenomenal - this is a far better result for Labour than Wellingborough, I think.
Still, RefUK turning up but still coming 3rd here does suggest they are a bit over egged in the polls, but maybe, if they get their act together, only a bit.
The results so far seem to indicate 1 is happening. 2 is completely out of their control but heading in the right direction. Not sure why they would be or should be disappointed at the moment.
And who is going to think that an aged Farage and assorted fan boys would be any better at the actual governing.
But I think he will underperform the Labour vote in London. Mainly through not getting the vote out.
He will win easily, though.
Normal politicians are generally able only to win support from one side of an argument.
The really poor politicians manage to lose support from both sides of an argument.
I don't rate Khan as a politician.
2025 local Tory candidates hoping any bloodlust against the party will be sated by the GE.
The vote is Labour/Tory and Khan/not Khan.
Polling guru Sir John Curtice tells @BBCr4today
: “You’re probably looking at one of the worst, if not the worst, Conservative performances in local government elections for the last 40 years." 👀
That is what they should be disappointed about.
Tory Mp Andrea Jenkyns: “It’s looking unlikely MPs will put letters in”
She’s previously called for PM to go, but says: “We are where we are”
Also wants Boris Johnson role and reshuffle to get more from right of party into cabinet.
In Leicester there also was a feud between the elected mayor and the councillors.
"The honest truth is the result in Blackpool South was spectacular. It was the third biggest swing from Conservative to Labour in post-war in postwar byelection history. And it’s the third biggest drop in the Conservative vote in postwar byelection history.
The trouble is, we’ve rather used to the spectacular in parliamentary byelections in this parliament. This is now the fifth by election in which the swing has been over 20%. There haven’t been much more than a dozen of those in the whole of the post war period.
When was the last time that such swings occurred as more than a rare event? Well, it was the parliament of 1992 to 1997 which ended with Tony Blair winning a landslide victory."
Once they move into Opposition and Labour into government, the long, slow process of rebuilding their decimated local base will begin (that's usually how the political cycle works)
However a few crumbs of comfort for the Tories, beating Reform for second in Blackpool S, just and also retaining control of Harlow council by 1 seat.
We await more local results and the PCC and some Mayoral results today
But I'll be back inside with Labour come GE day.
What I'm looking for locally to me are the results in Dewsbury & Batley constituency where a number of local Independent Muslim candidates are standing.
Having combined the majority Muslim bits of both Dewsbury and Batley & Spen constituencies into a 51% Muslim constituency, and no defending Labour MP* it has to be a top ten WPB target at the GE
*Leadbeater has opted to defend the much more marginal Spen Valley which would be nominally Tory, but is "her patch"
He was a better candidate for London Mayor than she is.
But actually I was making a modestly sensible point. A Starmer win is now so baked in, these results are quite Yeah, whatever. It’s difficult to get geekily enthused. They’re also not quite apocalyptically bad enough that Sunak is threatened. So again: meh
The actual General Election, now that WILL be very exciting. We might see the end of one of the western world’s most historic political parties
From the archive...
I don’t dislike Khan as much as everyone else seems to (tbh don’t really understand why he is so disliked, at least by non-nutters/racists) but they could have done with a new and more dynamic/inspirational candidate. If Susan Hall does do well it will reflect terribly on him; she is unquestionably the worst candidate any major party has put up for the mayoralty.
Though I suspect it will take a year or 2 for Starmer's government to really become unpopular
And whilst Rishi has been inconsistent he has gone pretty hard to the right on issues like Rwanda. What else can he attempt to please them?
Leave the ECHR? Sure, but not likely to swing many votes.
Huge tax cuts? If they could they'd have done it already.
Labour win with 22% swing.
No other elections in Cumbria.
And it's not just Muslims.......
What have they got to lose?
As Tories suffer ‘worst losses in 40 years’, Dame Andrea Jenkyns tells Radio 4 that the public are sick of the left’s “wokeist agenda”
The kind of thing that may be a good idea, but is completely unspecific and whilst a solution to some ills, won't solve as much as claimed, and if it would be that easy why would it not have happened already.
It's the counterpart to 'more money' as a solution to things.
I remember my delight when they announced the exit poll in 2019. I remember my wobble-wibble WTF when Brexit went Leave - that was TOO exciting
And the intense, almost sexual relief when Scotland said NO to secession
Lib Dems holding Newent, and us learning about it 3 days later, lacks the same theatrical impact
https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1786253358442979619
One other thing. Even if Houchen and Street hang on, they will only have won because of their personal brands, and by distancing themselves from - or openly defining themselves against - Rishi Sunak and the government. And a number of Tory MPs will take a lesson from that.
Should they roll the dice? Hard to say. I wouldn’t really blame them for trying.
https://twitter.com/LondonEconomic/status/1786290961259057289?t=8TXKipjBTWZbpr17FoJIxQ&s=19