I think some tories mis-underestimate SKS. For the past two and half years he's been gradually feeding the tory party into a woodchipper. Now the tories have brought some of the well-deserved calamity on themselves and it's possible that with the slow-motion catastrophe of Brexit unfolding they ineffably doomed by SKS still had to make the right moves to capitalise on their mis-steps.
Remember, always, SKS is a lawyer.
His demolitions are less entertaining than a 900 words tossed off by a columnist, but they are much more likely to have the intended effect. The difference between blowing something up with a tonne of TNT and Fred Dibnah felling a chimney by pulling out the right bits at the bottom so it just collapses.
Impressive, once you accept that that's what you're looking at.
You are giving him far, far too much credit - Boris self destructed, with no help from Sir Keir, then Truss's budget caused huge panic and turned a mid term polling malaise into a complete cliff drop.
Starmer cheered on the lockdown which is responsible for the economy crashing and has taken either the wrong side (extending lockdown/trans issues), or both sides of every other argument. Labour aren't adding new votes anywhere, it's just that the Tories 2019 coalition of voters, that only Boris could conceivably hold together, has fractured.
98%.
Boris was flawed and was more to be seen as a hired gun in this case brought in to Get Brexit Done, which he did with great success. But hired guns aren't cut out to run the whole show. As we saw subsequently.
Boris needs great support, great team management, and to have competent people around him which would have allowed him to carry on being Boris. Instead, the hired gun got a bit carried away or rather, didn't think he needed a competent and robust team and thought he could wing running the show. And he couldn't.
That last bit is what I think you are missing. Boris was fantastic at that one specific task (Brexit) but that was it. He then thought, as did you, that he was good enough for broader management of party, government and country. He wasn't.
Boris wasn't fantastic at the specific task of Brexit. Boris was able to get Brexit done by lying about the problems, specifically how to accommodate Northern Ireland. Unless you mean he was fantastic at lying!
Of course he was fantastic about lying.
But he Got Brexit Done.
No one knew what it was to start with beyond contractually exiting the EU and he achieved that.
I mean I yield to no one in my disdain both for Brexit and Boris. But he cut through what had become a stalemate and Got Brexit Done, something we had voted for several years earlier. And no I still don't think a second vote would have been anti-democratic (a logistical and governance nightmare perhaps) but I digress.
TLDR: it was such a dishonest project that only a liar could deliver it.
Brexit was leaving the EU. We left the EU.
Yes, but Mrs May’s first thought was to do the right thing by the country and go for a compromise soft Brexit, but she quickly realised she couldn’t deliver it.
So she tried to go for a harder Brexit, explained honestly, which no-one liked.
The Brexit we got could only be delivered by a liar; the same liar who landed us with it in the first place. And so it was.
I genuinely don't remember May ever going for, or even talking about, a softer Brexit option. She seemed to want to outdo the hard Brexit purists right from the start.
I'm not really buying the Street and Houchen running away from the Tory brand - all mayoral elections are about personal image particularly for incumbents. Look at Andy Burnham's manifesto on andy4mayor.co.uk and there's 2 mentions of Labour which are the small logo on front and back pages.
All the Mayors have run on personal, rather party brands.
Khan is no different - he runs as "Khan" not "The Labour Candidate, Khan"
I think some tories mis-underestimate SKS. For the past two and half years he's been gradually feeding the tory party into a woodchipper. Now the tories have brought some of the well-deserved calamity on themselves and it's possible that with the slow-motion catastrophe of Brexit unfolding they ineffably doomed by SKS still had to make the right moves to capitalise on their mis-steps.
Remember, always, SKS is a lawyer.
His demolitions are less entertaining than a 900 words tossed off by a columnist, but they are much more likely to have the intended effect. The difference between blowing something up with a tonne of TNT and Fred Dibnah felling a chimney by pulling out the right bits at the bottom so it just collapses.
Impressive, once you accept that that's what you're looking at.
You are giving him far, far too much credit - Boris self destructed, with no help from Sir Keir, then Truss's budget caused huge panic and turned a mid term polling malaise into a complete cliff drop.
Starmer cheered on the lockdown which is responsible for the economy crashing and has taken either the wrong side (extending lockdown/trans issues), or both sides of every other argument. Labour aren't adding new votes anywhere, it's just that the Tories 2019 coalition of voters, that only Boris could conceivably hold together, has fractured.
98%.
Boris was flawed and was more to be seen as a hired gun in this case brought in to Get Brexit Done, which he did with great success. But hired guns aren't cut out to run the whole show. As we saw subsequently.
Boris needs great support, great team management, and to have competent people around him which would have allowed him to carry on being Boris. Instead, the hired gun got a bit carried away or rather, didn't think he needed a competent and robust team and thought he could wing running the show. And he couldn't.
That last bit is what I think you are missing. Boris was fantastic at that one specific task (Brexit) but that was it. He then thought, as did you, that he was good enough for broader management of party, government and country. He wasn't.
Boris wasn't fantastic at the specific task of Brexit. Boris was able to get Brexit done by lying about the problems, specifically how to accommodate Northern Ireland. Unless you mean he was fantastic at lying!
Of course he was fantastic about lying.
But he Got Brexit Done.
No one knew what it was to start with beyond contractually exiting the EU and he achieved that.
I mean I yield to no one in my disdain both for Brexit and Boris. But he cut through what had become a stalemate and Got Brexit Done, something we had voted for several years earlier. And no I still don't think a second vote would have been anti-democratic (a logistical and governance nightmare perhaps) but I digress.
TLDR: it was such a dishonest project that only a liar could deliver it.
Brexit was leaving the EU. We left the EU.
Yes, but Mrs May’s first thought was to do the right thing by the country and go for a compromise soft Brexit, but she quickly realised she couldn’t deliver it.
So she tried to go for a harder Brexit, explained honestly, which no-one liked.
The Brexit we got could only be delivered by a liar; the same liar who landed us with it in the first place. And so it was.
I genuinely don't remember May ever going for, or even talking about, a softer Brexit option. She seemed to want to outdo the hard Brexit purists right from the start.
Never in public, but Heywood’s biography suggests she knew a softer Brexit was the right thing to do, but quickly realised it would be impossible for her.
In an alternative universe, a Johnson who had some of Churchill’s statesmanship would have told the country some honest, hard truths, and pushed through a compromise ‘Norway for now’ Brexit that only he had the political capital to land. And which probably aligned with his own personal beliefs, insofar as he has any. Just a shame that honest hard truths was so very far from his raison d’etre.
The rise of the sectarian vote in certain areas must be of real concern for a few people surely?
Certainly for me. I'm no fan of Labour, but I'd far rather a sane Labour party controlled Oldham, Rochdale, etc, than a sectarian party whose interests are chiefly in the Middle East.
Birmingham Labour source calling West Midlands mayoralty for Andy Street. “We have beaten him as a general rule, but the Muslim vote has collapsed to the Galloway-backed independent.”
What on earth does "We have beaten him as a general rule" mean? I need someone to decipher that for me.
There’s no point Labour whining about the West Midlands .
Starmer should have been more careful and not jumped onto the Netenyahu love-in .
No. Starmer should have done what he believed was right, on an international issue, even if it damages him electorally. Good for him (unless he did it deliberately to appear Prime-ministerial, of course...)
Starmer could have done that and not put his foot in it.
Birmingham Labour source calling West Midlands mayoralty for Andy Street. “We have beaten him as a general rule, but the Muslim vote has collapsed to the Galloway-backed independent.”
What on earth does "We have beaten him as a general rule" mean? I need someone to decipher that for me.
Quite. Dripping with condescension and complacency.
How did the ability to do this - meaning the ability of which this particular ability is one manifestation - evolve without language?
Doubtless Richard Loony Dawkins and Steven Bullshit Pinker could offer a knee-jerky materialist answer.
Makes you wonder what abilities humans possessed, and possibly still do possess in some sense despite the powerful and growing assaults on them by bean-counters digital.
I saw that. It’s incredible. Some primates have also been witnessed spear-fishing
Birmingham Labour source calling West Midlands mayoralty for Andy Street. “We have beaten him as a general rule, but the Muslim vote has collapsed to the Galloway-backed independent.”
What on earth does "We have beaten him as a general rule" mean? I need someone to decipher that for me.
Birmingham Labour source calling West Midlands mayoralty for Andy Street. “We have beaten him as a general rule, but the Muslim vote has collapsed to the Galloway-backed independent.”
What on earth does "We have beaten him as a general rule" mean? I need someone to decipher that for me.
15 years ago? The National didn't exist then but I'm sure now if it put up a cartoon of Westminster leaders being hung it would be accepted with perfect equanimity.
The rise of the sectarian vote in certain areas must be of real concern for a few people surely?
It’s never a great idea to kick sand in the face of a significant voting bloc. I don’t think these people have love for Galloway, but Starmer has shown them amply that he doesn’t care about their concerns. So they’ve protest voted en masse. As is their absolute right.
What if their concerns are, you know, a bit mad? I cycled through a pro-Palestine protest the other day. The view didn't seem to be that we should be concerned about the welfare of Gazan civilians while also deploring the violence of the Oct 7th attacks and trying to secure the return of those hostages who are still alive. It was the Israel should be wiped from the face of the earth. I'd contend that it's hard to 'share the concerns' of people like these.
"Rob Mayor @robmayorLabour sources tell me they believe they have lost the West Midlands Mayoral election, with their campaign severely dented by the issue of Gaza. They think independent Akhmed Yakoob will come third in some areas.
Votes won't be counted till tomorrow.
Labour source: 'It's the Middle East, not West Midlands that will have won Street the Mayoralty. Once again Hamas are the real villains.'
Birmingham Labour source calling West Midlands mayoralty for Andy Street. “We have beaten him as a general rule, but the Muslim vote has collapsed to the Galloway-backed independent.”
What on earth does "We have beaten him as a general rule" mean? I need someone to decipher that for me.
Understand it in the same sense as saying that as a general rule, Leon’s predictions are spot on.
There’s no point Labour whining about the West Midlands .
Starmer should have been more careful and not jumped onto the Netenyahu love-in .
No. Starmer should have done what he believed was right, on an international issue, even if it damages him electorally. Good for him (unless he did it deliberately to appear Prime-ministerial, of course...)
Starmer could have done that and not put his foot in it.
I suspect bearing in mind his very close family ties his statement to Ferrari, although thought-free, was from the heart. He does seem to have some Z****** tendencies.
It does remind us what a feature of Conservative progress Ferrari is. In addition to tripping Starmer up, Ferrari has been a fearless opponent of Khan, although Hall has even managed to soil herself whilst being interviewed by soft-touch Ferrari. I would say Ferrari was also instrumental in driving the Uxbridge anti-Ulez narrative and for months if not years before the by-election.
I guess Starmer would argue that if he'd taken a different position on Gaza Labour may have done better in Oldham, Rochdale etc., but would have been less likely to win Rushmoor, Redditch etc.
It's pretty complex to work out potential gains vs. losses in relation to his Gaza stance. Hopefully, it will be less of an issue come the GE.
How did the ability to do this - meaning the ability of which this particular ability is one manifestation - evolve without language?
Doubtless Richard Loony Dawkins and Steven Bullshit Pinker could offer a knee-jerky materialist answer.
Makes you wonder what abilities humans possessed, and possibly still do possess in some sense despite the powerful and growing assaults on them by bean-counters digital.
I saw that. It’s incredible. Some primates have also been witnessed spear-fishing
They are evolving
That's not evolving. That's a cultural/behavioural change.
"Rob Mayor @robmayorLabour sources tell me they believe they have lost the West Midlands Mayoral election, with their campaign severely dented by the issue of Gaza. They think independent Akhmed Yakoob will come third in some areas.
Votes won't be counted till tomorrow.
Labour source: 'It's the Middle East, not West Midlands that will have won Street the Mayoralty. Once again Hamas are the real villains.'
I guess Starmer would argue that if he'd taken a different position on Gaza Labour may have done better in Oldham, Rochdale etc., but would have been less likely to win Rushmoor, Redditch etc.
It's pretty complex to work out potential gains vs. losses in relation to his Gaza stance. Hopefully, it will be less of an issue come the GE.
Bluntly, Labour can afford losses in the former, to make gains in the latter.
I guess Starmer would argue that if he'd taken a different position on Gaza Labour may have done better in Oldham, Rochdale etc., but would have been less likely to win Rushmoor, Redditch etc.
It's pretty complex to work out potential gains vs. losses in relation to his Gaza stance. Hopefully, it will be less of an issue come the GE.
I think he messed up and could have done more to walk that line .
I guess Starmer would argue that if he'd taken a different position on Gaza Labour may have done better in Oldham, Rochdale etc., but would have been less likely to win Rushmoor, Redditch etc.
It's pretty complex to work out potential gains vs. losses in relation to his Gaza stance. Hopefully, it will be less of an issue come the GE.
Starmer messed up on Gaza but I don't think net seat calculations should be part of that calculation.
15 years ago? The National didn't exist then but I'm sure now if it put up a cartoon of Westminster leaders being hung it would be accepted with perfect equanimity.
There’s no point Labour whining about the West Midlands .
Starmer should have been more careful and not jumped onto the Netenyahu love-in .
No. Starmer should have done what he believed was right, on an international issue, even if it damages him electorally. Good for him (unless he did it deliberately to appear Prime-ministerial, of course...)
Starmer could have done that and not put his foot in it.
I suspect bearing in mind his very close family ties his statement to Ferrari, although thought-free were from the heart. He does seem to have some Z****** tendencies.
It does remind us what a feature of Conservative progress Ferrari is. In addition to tripping Starmer up, Ferrari has been a fearless opponent of Khan, although Hall has even managed to soil herself whilst being interviewed by soft-touch Ferrari. I would say Ferrari was also instrumental in driving the Uxbridge anti-Ulez narrative and for months if not years before the by-election.
Cameron seems to have navigated the tricky middle eastern waters well politically.
I listened to THAT interview with Starmer live, it was quite astonishing when he appeared to agree/suggest Israel should cut off water to Gaza.
I hope No.10 were not expecting a warm endorsement from Ben Houchen.
🔥"To be frank, it doesn't matter to me who the Prime Minister is... even if there's a change of government later this year or Rishi is still Prime Minister or it's somebody else."
OUCH. ~AA
Yes Ben, but if it truly is the case that you are an independent, why do you take the Tory whip in the Lords and meekly go to London when commanded to play parliamentary ping-pong with the Rwanda bill?
Surely the answer is that Sunak is Prime Minister NOW and his area is reliant on the current Government's largesse. There's give and take there, and part of that is being a reliable vote in the upper house (he may also genuinely agree with Sunak on Rwanda, but the point is there's nothing for him and his region in being less than an assiduously loyal peer).
But all these big, combined authority mayor need to decide how to position themselves relative to those in power in Westminster. Houchen's mayoralty to date has been under a Tory government but he (and Street assuming he's got back) will be thinking about how to do that with a Labour government. They need to decide how far to be combative and how far to offer Starmer deals.
They will doubtless criticise Starmer (they are Conservatives ultimately - that isn't changing). But I suspect that will be tempered and have the flavour of an independent voice for the region rather than his master's voice - a successful economic development programme funded from Westminster and delivered in Walsall or in Hartlepool helps the mayors in those regions... but it also helps the Government, and both sides in that discussion know it.
Houchen's quote is a nod to that. It says to Starmer that he is open for business when the time comes, and that's just sensible, realistic politics.
3 announced so far. Swings seem to be 10-20% away from the Tories to whoever.
Avon & Somerset - LAB gain. Big votes for Green / Lib Dem. Cumbria - LAB gain. Big swing but only 2 candidates. Lincs - CON hold. Third termer Tory.
These are the police forces in special measures, which I think may make it worse for incumbents where applicable:
Notts, Metropolitan police, West Midlands police, Devon and Cornwall, Staffordshire and Wiltshire.
It’s always seemed weird to me, for the PCC candidates to carry party affiliation.
I can definitely see the point of electing the police commissioner, but also don’t want to see the American system of electing everyone down to the dog catcher along party lines.
As someone who knows a former PCC quite well, it's often just down to the costs of running as an independent. The one I know took party backing because they didn't have the networks or contacts to campaign alone, rather than because of any real affiliation for the party.
Birmingham Labour source calling West Midlands mayoralty for Andy Street. “We have beaten him as a general rule, but the Muslim vote has collapsed to the Galloway-backed independent.”
What on earth does "We have beaten him as a general rule" mean? I need someone to decipher that for me.
if some wards had voted the way they historically did and not for the George Galloway Candidate they think they would have won it.
But if the Muslim 60% Labour vote share (say) have voted on mass for the George Galloway candidate then the trend general trend is towards Labour but a significant percentage of old Labour vote has disappeared elsewhere (probably because of Gaza).
I guess Starmer would argue that if he'd taken a different position on Gaza Labour may have done better in Oldham, Rochdale etc., but would have been less likely to win Rushmoor, Redditch etc.
It's pretty complex to work out potential gains vs. losses in relation to his Gaza stance. Hopefully, it will be less of an issue come the GE.
Starmer messed up on Gaza but I don't think net seat calculations should be part of that calculation.
Sectarian electoral calculus is here to stay as a result of demographic changes. It's a bit late to complain now.
Birmingham Labour source calling West Midlands mayoralty for Andy Street. “We have beaten him as a general rule, but the Muslim vote has collapsed to the Galloway-backed independent.”
What on earth does "We have beaten him as a general rule" mean? I need someone to decipher that for me.
if some wards had voted the way they historically did and not for the George Galloway Candidate they think they would have won it.
But if the Muslim 60% Labour vote share (say) have voted on mass for the George Galloway candidate then the trend general trend is towards Labour but a significant percentage of old Labour vote has disappeared elsewhere (probably because of Gaza).
It like how England beat France in the 6 nations this year.
Welwyn Hatfield Borough Council: Conservatives drop from largest party to 3rd place, Labour 20 (+8), Lib Dems 15 (+2), Conservative 11 (-10), 2 seats yet to declare, 1 Lib Dem defence and 1 Conservative defence.
The rise of the sectarian vote in certain areas must be of real concern for a few people surely?
It’s never a great idea to kick sand in the face of a significant voting bloc. I don’t think these people have love for Galloway, but Starmer has shown them amply that he doesn’t care about their concerns. So they’ve protest voted en masse. As is their absolute right.
What if their concerns are, you know, a bit mad? I cycled through a pro-Palestine protest the other day. The view didn't seem to be that we should be concerned about the welfare of Gazan civilians while also deploring the violence of the Oct 7th attacks and trying to secure the return of those hostages who are still alive. It was the Israel should be wiped from the face of the earth. I'd contend that it's hard to 'share the concerns' of people like these.
The loonies out on the street are not necessarily representative. Any more than the Get Your Socialist Worker types are representative of you or me.
However, Labour’s *at best* fence sitting over Gaza has seemed cowardly and opportunistic. And I can say that whilst I agree with your analysis above I also understand that Labour’s stance has needlessly angered and alienated Muslim communities.
I'll go against the flow, and say that Reform's performance was distinctly underwhelming, and I remain of the view, they won't trouble the scorers on GE day.
They've certainly cost the Conservatives some seats here and there, but averaging 14%, in one sixth of the seats, is piss-poor. If you took the 16% top results for any of Con, Lib Dem, Lab, Greens, they'd comfortably exceed that vote share.
I’m not mentioning London Mayor anymore. You anti Hall Londoners are just far too tetchy and weird about it for a normal conversation about it right now.
Even if it’s the biggest story of this set of elections, to me it doesn’t even exist.
Happy? 😠
Fair enough.
Pause
But what is your opinion of the London Mayoral Election 2024?
Apparently the Tories think only about 2 million voted in London and 6 million were registered so around 33% .
That’s about 7% down on 2021.
Low turnout could also be due to Tories sitting on their hands, which seems to me at least as likely as all the non-voters being otherwise Labour supporters.
Very true. Though London is a peculiar one, in that you have a very prominent figurehead and an 8 year incumbent for the opposition party who is very divisive. It feels to me like London voters might not be quite the disillusioned Tories sitting on their hands that we have seen in the rest of the country. I would be gobsmacked if she wins, but I do think the result will be far closer than the polls predict.
So why would the polls be wrong? A 22% lead in last one from yougov.
Polls can always be wrong. They are only predictors, at the end of the day. There can be a myriad of reasons for this. Bailey outperformed the polls in 2021, for instance.
Of course if Hall wins (which, as I note, I’d be gobsmacked if she did) this would be a polling upset up there with the very biggest of them.
Wait. Polls aren’t forecasts is my line. 😇
One reason obviously for a Khan loss is Labour vote is down 16 points on 2021 in areas with a Muslim population, according to BBC. Labour down 16 points on average is a whopping figure isn’t it? No one predicted Gaza Backlash to be quite that impactful?
Some PBers said Gaza Backlash wouldn’t happen in London because Khans position is different to Starmer’s, but maybe it’s not worked out like that, like vote Khan get Starmer’s policy?
London has a very large Muslim population to be sure. It's 15% of the total. 16% of 15% is 2.4%. So what you're implying, crudely, is that Gaza led to 2.4% of Londoners abstaining. That's not really a whopping figure.
Contrast all that with the final YouGov this time round. It would be an absolute catastrophe for them and everyone else involved if Khan lost.
While a Hall win is certainly possible I see very little polling evidence, and that evidence is the best we have, pointing to anything other than a Khan win. The rest is partisan Tweets and anecdata.
Political punters are most likely following PB and @MoonRabbit has been ramping for Hall with every fifth post since 10pm last night.
Of course she could be correct.
I haven’t ramped anything. 😠Take a look at SouthamObserver at 11.54 - like me just explaining how/why.
If I say Labour are conceding West Midlands because of the Gaza Backlash, are you accusing me of Hall ramping?
This Gaza Backlash is a real thing, important to the General Election too if it costs Labour both West Midlands and London. Don’t blame the messengers.
Again...
What is your prediction for the London result?
I explicitly told you last night before you flounced, i think Khan to win by a gap in the teens. i still think that, based on actual polls not rumours.
tell me about cause of those rumours swirling before midnight last night Anabob - one from Labour saying very very tight very worried (why would the numpties do that after polls closed and it can't get more votes out?) and at least one from Hall camp (called something bizarre like her inner zone) claiming victory?
I would say to PB don't bet London today. its largely driven by rumours from a candidate ramping themselves, if Labour hadn’t joined in. Tories were suspiciously hopeful and confident about London all the way through campaign wern't they? 🤔
but i'm not allowed to say later today - "polls showed West Midlands as tight but it proved comfortable Tory win due to the Gaza Backlash syphon, so what does this mean for London" without you and mexy now unfairly calling me a RAMPER on a betting site??? just because you and others get upset by the thought of this defeat? 😡
anyway. satisfied with this answer. i'm not mentioning London till countings over. hold me to it.
I guess Starmer would argue that if he'd taken a different position on Gaza Labour may have done better in Oldham, Rochdale etc., but would have been less likely to win Rushmoor, Redditch etc.
It's pretty complex to work out potential gains vs. losses in relation to his Gaza stance. Hopefully, it will be less of an issue come the GE.
Starmer messed up on Gaza but I don't think net seat calculations should be part of that calculation.
Maybe not, but in the real world Starmer is determined to win a broad enough coalition of voters to win the GE, which is always going to mean disappointing some special interests. Though I agree with you that Starmer messed up - I'm not a fan of his stance on Gaza personally, just trying to make sense of the thinking behind it.
There’s no point Labour whining about the West Midlands .
Starmer should have been more careful and not jumped onto the Netenyahu love-in .
No. Starmer should have done what he believed was right, on an international issue, even if it damages him electorally. Good for him (unless he did it deliberately to appear Prime-ministerial, of course...)
Starmer could have done that and not put his foot in it.
I suspect bearing in mind his very close family ties his statement to Ferrari, although thought-free were from the heart. He does seem to have some Z****** tendencies.
It does remind us what a feature of Conservative progress Ferrari is. In addition to tripping Starmer up, Ferrari has been a fearless opponent of Khan, although Hall has even managed to soil herself whilst being interviewed by soft-touch Ferrari. I would say Ferrari was also instrumental in driving the Uxbridge anti-Ulez narrative and for months if not years before the by-election.
Cameron seems to have navigated the tricky middle eastern waters well politically.
I listened to THAT interview with Starmer live, it was quite astonishing when he appeared to agree/suggest Israel should cut off water to Gaza.
Ferrari took him up that cul-de-sac, but he could have been more circumspect and backed out, but he wasn't. I suspect Starmer spoke before thinking on two counts his personal possibly Z****** viewpoint and as a reaction to long-Corbyn.
I’m not mentioning London Mayor anymore. You anti Hall Londoners are just far too tetchy and weird about it for a normal conversation about it right now.
Even if it’s the biggest story of this set of elections, to me it doesn’t even exist.
Happy? 😠
Fair enough.
Pause
But what is your opinion of the London Mayoral Election 2024?
I think some tories mis-underestimate SKS. For the past two and half years he's been gradually feeding the tory party into a woodchipper. Now the tories have brought some of the well-deserved calamity on themselves and it's possible that with the slow-motion catastrophe of Brexit unfolding they ineffably doomed by SKS still had to make the right moves to capitalise on their mis-steps.
Remember, always, SKS is a lawyer.
His demolitions are less entertaining than a 900 words tossed off by a columnist, but they are much more likely to have the intended effect. The difference between blowing something up with a tonne of TNT and Fred Dibnah felling a chimney by pulling out the right bits at the bottom so it just collapses.
Impressive, once you accept that that's what you're looking at.
You are giving him far, far too much credit - Boris self destructed, with no help from Sir Keir, then Truss's budget caused huge panic and turned a mid term polling malaise into a complete cliff drop.
Starmer cheered on the lockdown which is responsible for the economy crashing and has taken either the wrong side (extending lockdown/trans issues), or both sides of every other argument. Labour aren't adding new votes anywhere, it's just that the Tories 2019 coalition of voters, that only Boris could conceivably hold together, has fractured.
98%.
Boris was flawed and was more to be seen as a hired gun in this case brought in to Get Brexit Done, which he did with great success. But hired guns aren't cut out to run the whole show. As we saw subsequently.
Boris needs great support, great team management, and to have competent people around him which would have allowed him to carry on being Boris. Instead, the hired gun got a bit carried away or rather, didn't think he needed a competent and robust team and thought he could wing running the show. And he couldn't.
That last bit is what I think you are missing. Boris was fantastic at that one specific task (Brexit) but that was it. He then thought, as did you, that he was good enough for broader management of party, government and country. He wasn't.
Boris wasn't fantastic at the specific task of Brexit. Boris was able to get Brexit done by lying about the problems, specifically how to accommodate Northern Ireland. Unless you mean he was fantastic at lying!
Of course he was fantastic about lying.
But he Got Brexit Done.
No one knew what it was to start with beyond contractually exiting the EU and he achieved that.
I mean I yield to no one in my disdain both for Brexit and Boris. But he cut through what had become a stalemate and Got Brexit Done, something we had voted for several years earlier. And no I still don't think a second vote would have been anti-democratic (a logistical and governance nightmare perhaps) but I digress.
TLDR: it was such a dishonest project that only a liar could deliver it.
Brexit was leaving the EU. We left the EU.
Yes, but Mrs May’s first thought was to do the right thing by the country and go for a compromise soft Brexit, but she quickly realised she couldn’t deliver it.
So she tried to go for a harder Brexit, explained honestly, which no-one liked.
The Brexit we got could only be delivered by a liar; the same liar who landed us with it in the first place. And so it was.
I genuinely don't remember May ever going for, or even talking about, a softer Brexit option. She seemed to want to outdo the hard Brexit purists right from the start.
She identified immigration, and therefore a hard Brexit outside the EEA, as the wedge issue that could split Leave-voting Labour voters from Labour and deliver the Tories a landslide majority. And it nearly worked for her.
I’m not mentioning London Mayor anymore. You anti Hall Londoners are just far too tetchy and weird about it for a normal conversation about it right now.
Even if it’s the biggest story of this set of elections, to me it doesn’t even exist.
Happy? 😠
Fair enough.
Pause
But what is your opinion of the London Mayoral Election 2024?
"Rob Mayor @robmayorLabour sources tell me they believe they have lost the West Midlands Mayoral election, with their campaign severely dented by the issue of Gaza. They think independent Akhmed Yakoob will come third in some areas.
Votes won't be counted till tomorrow.
Labour source: 'It's the Middle East, not West Midlands that will have won Street the Mayoralty. Once again Hamas are the real villains.'
Will we be reading similar tweets about Biden in November?
That's what I fear. Letting Donald "Muslim ban" Trump in to encourage Netanyahu to finish off Gaza.
Not to mention allowing VVP to do a mission accomplished.
Obviously that as well.
I can't take politicians all that seriously at the moment, far too many of them are talking about the nice things they are going to do in the next parliament. I think it's a lot more likely they will be dealing with a series of crises, and all the nice things will be dumped to make way for emergency measures to deal with them. Boris thought he'd be levelling-up but had a pandemic and major European war with resulting high inflation to deal with instead. I expect Starmer's ambitions will be similarly thwarted, particularly if Trump is reelected.
I guess Starmer would argue that if he'd taken a different position on Gaza Labour may have done better in Oldham, Rochdale etc., but would have been less likely to win Rushmoor, Redditch etc.
It's pretty complex to work out potential gains vs. losses in relation to his Gaza stance. Hopefully, it will be less of an issue come the GE.
Starmer messed up on Gaza but I don't think net seat calculations should be part of that calculation.
Sectarian electoral calculus is here to stay as a result of demographic changes. It's a bit late to complain now.
I'm not complaining. As a serious prime minister in waiting Starmer should, and I think does, make the decision on the issues and the seat impacts fall as they may.
In fact, Starmer made the wrong decision in my view by making calls for a ceasefire a sacking offence when what actually happened was inevitably going to happen. A ceasefire was wss going to be the consensus position and indeed Starmer's own position. So why not allow people to have different views on a ceasefire and then get to the common position they were always going to get to?
Starmer has lost votes because he made a mistake, not because he made an unpopular decision.
Hall has lost pretty much all of her earlier market gains and has slid back out (very quickly) to 13. She was as low as 7 only half an hour ago.
Seems a quick shift?
The one thing we know from previous elections is that movements in the betting rarely point to the actual result. Hence even Clinton backers and Remain backers could have made money from those losing elections, had they been quick and bold enough. As indeed I did.
I guess Starmer would argue that if he'd taken a different position on Gaza Labour may have done better in Oldham, Rochdale etc., but would have been less likely to win Rushmoor, Redditch etc.
It's pretty complex to work out potential gains vs. losses in relation to his Gaza stance. Hopefully, it will be less of an issue come the GE.
Starmer messed up on Gaza but I don't think net seat calculations should be part of that calculation.
Maybe not, but in the real world Starmer is determined to win a broad enough coalition of voters to win the GE, which is always going to mean disappointing some special interests. Though I agree with you that Starmer messed up - I'm not a fan of his stance on Gaza personally, just trying to make sense of the thinking behind it.
Sure, but pissing off a core voting bloc to court swing voters, who (a) by definition will swing back after 1-2 cycles and (b) were probably less bothered about Gaza anyway doesn’t seem like wise politics. I mean let’s face it, alot of ordinary people have been deeply uncomfortable with the razing of Gaza. Starmer misread this, badly.
Somewhat surprisingly, the Conservatives have held the Cambridgeshire PCC by 4,000.
It looks like most people who voted independent in the Peterborough local elections voted for the Conservative candidate (most Peterborough independents are ex-Conservatives.)
It's worth remembering that some independents are quite right wing, which will account for some of the divergence in Mayoral and PCC elections from their Districts.
Somewhat surprisingly, the Conservatives have held the Cambridgeshire PCC by 4,000.
It looks like most people who voted independent in the Peterborough local elections voted for the Conservative candidate (most Peterborough independents are ex-Conservatives.)
It's worth remembering that some independents are quite right wing, which will account for some of the divergence in Mayoral and PCC elections from their Districts.
"Rob Mayor @robmayorLabour sources tell me they believe they have lost the West Midlands Mayoral election, with their campaign severely dented by the issue of Gaza. They think independent Akhmed Yakoob will come third in some areas.
Votes won't be counted till tomorrow.
Labour source: 'It's the Middle East, not West Midlands that will have won Street the Mayoralty. Once again Hamas are the real villains.'
Will we be reading similar tweets about Biden in November?
That's what I fear. Letting Donald "Muslim ban" Trump in to encourage Netanyahu to finish off Gaza.
Not to mention allowing VVP to do a mission accomplished.
Does it make much difference at this point? Even in JRB gets re-elected he's not going to get another Ukraine package through if they rip through this $60bn to no appreciable effect.
Not a fan of the SNP at all, but that cartoon is loathsome.
Joking about killing elected politicians in a mainstream newspaper, further recommended by a supposedly mainstream TV channel, is an atrocious idea indeed, because of the obvious problem which all parties face these days.
We're cancelling James Gillray now are we?
Interesting point. But Spencer Perceval might have something to say about that, if you get an ouija board and ask him nicely.
I don't think they will re-admit him this side of the General Election. It doesn't matter too much to them as long as he sticks his hand up at the right moments in the Council AGM. He clearly isn't on the left of the party given the nature of the suspension and, if he is even vaguely sane, he'll be a good boy and hope to be quietly re-admitted at a later date.
Somewhat surprisingly, the Conservatives have held the Cambridgeshire PCC by 4,000.
It looks like most people who voted independent in the Peterborough local elections voted for the Conservative candidate (most Peterborough independents are ex-Conservatives.)
It's worth remembering that some independents are quite right wing, which will account for some of the divergence in Mayoral and PCC elections from their Districts.
Relief for the Tories Houchen has won too
Quite a big swing against though, so let's wait and see for the others.
Stunning graph: the plummeting tax rates of the richest Americans. For the first time in history*, billionaires have a lower effective tax rate than working-class Americans. https://twitter.com/rcbregman/status/1786331219715616890
*I'm not sure that's true pre-1930s: what tax rate did Rockefeller pay back in the day ?
Hartlepool by 7%, 19% swing to Lab Redcar and Cleveland by 13%, 18.5% swing to Lab Boro by 1%, 18% swing to Labour
Andy Street loses I think on that kind of swing - but tight???
Yes - as it was mere 54-46 last time. But no. As it’s a different, different candidates (ones being investigated by the police as ineligible) and different circumstances.
As polling put Street ahead the Tories are right to be quietly confident.
So that will be at least three Tory wins including North Yorkshire and York, though mood music has been giving East Midlands to Labour. So at least 3-1 to the Tories from these battlegrounds.
I think Labour will walk Notts/Derbyshire (I refuse to refer to it as East Midlands since it only covers 2 of the 6 counties)
Yes, it's yet another bizarrely named mayoralty. Who comes up with these names? They need to rehire the person who came up with Greater Manchester and Greater London... and have him/her rebrand the rest accordingly.
Isn't it more to do with the chosen block being stupid than the name? I live in High Peak, own a business in Derbyshire Dales. Our area has virtually no connection with Notts - my town looks to Manchester and perhaps a bit Sheffield, not Derby or Nottingham. Having a mayor will just mean paying more council tax which will get chucked at stuff in the cities miles away we never go to.
"Rob Mayor @robmayorLabour sources tell me they believe they have lost the West Midlands Mayoral election, with their campaign severely dented by the issue of Gaza. They think independent Akhmed Yakoob will come third in some areas.
Votes won't be counted till tomorrow.
Labour source: 'It's the Middle East, not West Midlands that will have won Street the Mayoralty. Once again Hamas are the real villains.'
Will we be reading similar tweets about Biden in November?
That's what I fear. Letting Donald "Muslim ban" Trump in to encourage Netanyahu to finish off Gaza.
Not to mention allowing VVP to do a mission accomplished.
Does it make much difference at this point? Even in JRB gets re-elected he's not going to get another Ukraine package through if they rip through this $60bn to no appreciable effect.
The Democrats might win back the House, and the Senate Republicans seem to be less cowed by Trump. I think the election in November matters to Ukraine.
Breaking: An analysis of Met Office data for three decades reveals the Isle of Wight as the only part of the UK to enjoy an average of over five hours of sunshine per day, at 5h08m.
So the false claims from Eastbourne and Torquay are officially dashed!
I guess Starmer would argue that if he'd taken a different position on Gaza Labour may have done better in Oldham, Rochdale etc., but would have been less likely to win Rushmoor, Redditch etc.
It's pretty complex to work out potential gains vs. losses in relation to his Gaza stance. Hopefully, it will be less of an issue come the GE.
Bluntly, Labour can afford losses in the former, to make gains in the latter.
This is the return of triangulation that was so successful under Blair, until it wasn't.
Much like the Tories over the past 14 years, the goodwill of the centre erodes eventually - and it turns out you've lost your base too.
Stunning graph: the plummeting tax rates of the richest Americans. For the first time in history*, billionaires have a lower effective tax rate than working-class Americans. https://twitter.com/rcbregman/status/1786331219715616890
*I'm not sure that's true pre-1930s: what tax rate did Rockefeller pay back in the day ?
Back in the day, the American had high rates and lots of loop holes. Now they have low rates and more loop holes.
The problem is that for each loophole, there is a political constituency protecting it. The genius of the tax lawyers was making sure that *everyone* gets some loopholes. So it is easy to sell the idea that flattened tax systems means that *you* lose.
How did the ability to do this - meaning the ability of which this particular ability is one manifestation - evolve without language?
Doubtless Richard Loony Dawkins and Steven Bullshit Pinker could offer a knee-jerky materialist answer.
Makes you wonder what abilities humans possessed, and possibly still do possess in some sense despite the powerful and growing assaults on them by bean-counters digital.
Wait: you are seriously claiming that an orangutan chewing a herb with analgesic properties is evidence for God?
Surely it's simply evidence that - being genetically very similar to us - orangutans are smarter than some PB posters.
“We examined the alleged incident in closer detail, with a special focus on whether he would vote for us to have council positions which attract an attendance allowance; and blow me, we concluded he has done nothing wrong. No one could be more surprised than me”.
How did the ability to do this - meaning the ability of which this particular ability is one manifestation - evolve without language?
Doubtless Richard Loony Dawkins and Steven Bullshit Pinker could offer a knee-jerky materialist answer.
Makes you wonder what abilities humans possessed, and possibly still do possess in some sense despite the powerful and growing assaults on them by bean-counters digital.
Wait: you are seriously claiming that an orangutan chewing a herb with analgesic properties is evidence for God?
Surely it's simply evidence that - being genetically very similar to us - orangutans are smarter than some PB posters.
There's plenty of evidence of animals copying behaviour from each other. No language involved.
How did the ability to do this - meaning the ability of which this particular ability is one manifestation - evolve without language?
Doubtless Richard Loony Dawkins and Steven Bullshit Pinker could offer a knee-jerky materialist answer.
Makes you wonder what abilities humans possessed, and possibly still do possess in some sense despite the powerful and growing assaults on them by bean-counters digital.
Wait: you are seriously claiming that an orangutan chewing a herb with analgesic properties is evidence for God?
Surely it's simply evidence that - being genetically very similar to us - orangutans are smarter than some PB posters.
Without seeing a manifesto, its hard to judge, but I hope they are against the WASPI women's claim, for instance.
You have to wonder which bit of women's equality they think is currently missing.
Things like average earnings for men vs women are now mostly (exclusively?) down to different career choices coupled to career breaks to have children.
Hartlepool by 7%, 19% swing to Lab Redcar and Cleveland by 13%, 18.5% swing to Lab Boro by 1%, 18% swing to Labour
Andy Street loses I think on that kind of swing - but tight???
Yes - as it was mere 54-46 last time. But no. As it’s a different, different candidates (ones being investigated by the police as ineligible) and different circumstances.
As polling put Street ahead the Tories are right to be quietly confident.
So that will be at least three Tory wins including North Yorkshire and York, though mood music has been giving East Midlands to Labour. So at least 3-1 to the Tories from these battlegrounds.
I think Labour will walk Notts/Derbyshire (I refuse to refer to it as East Midlands since it only covers 2 of the 6 counties)
Yes, it's yet another bizarrely named mayoralty. Who comes up with these names? They need to rehire the person who came up with Greater Manchester and Greater London... and have him/her rebrand the rest accordingly.
Isn't it more to do with the chosen block being stupid than the name? I live in High Peak, own a business in Derbyshire Dales. Our area has virtually no connection with Notts - my town looks to Manchester and perhaps a bit Sheffield, not Derby or Nottingham. Having a mayor will just mean paying more council tax which will get chucked at stuff in the cities miles away we never go to.
The impression I get from the North Notts side of the border is that Derbyshire County, which is run from Matlock not Derby, has been investing in developing eg rural tourism quite effectively. If I go trail riding, I can detect the higher quality infra when I enter Derbyshire.
I'm not convinced on the Council Tax point. Only two of the eight regional mayoral setups have ever used their power to set a precept.
The rate of Tory losses might have slowed but there are quite a few large councils coming up with all seats up for election .
Dorset in particular could be very ugly for the Tories .
I think we'll see a repeat of last year's BCP decimation....
It will be interesting to see. I actually rate our Tory Dorset councillor, she works hard for her constituents. But no way was I going to vote for a Tory candidate. If only she'd defected to the Lib Dems.
How did the ability to do this - meaning the ability of which this particular ability is one manifestation - evolve without language?
Doubtless Richard Loony Dawkins and Steven Bullshit Pinker could offer a knee-jerky materialist answer.
Makes you wonder what abilities humans possessed, and possibly still do possess in some sense despite the powerful and growing assaults on them by bean-counters digital.
Wait: you are seriously claiming that an orangutan chewing a herb with analgesic properties is evidence for God?
Surely it's simply evidence that - being genetically very similar to us - orangutans are smarter than some PB posters.
Yes, cats and dogs observe us, and copy our behaviour.
Not a fan of the SNP at all, but that cartoon is loathsome.
Joking about killing elected politicians in a mainstream newspaper, further recommended by a supposedly mainstream TV channel, is an atrocious idea indeed, because of the obvious problem which all parties face these days.
We're cancelling James Gillray now are we?
Interesting point. But Spencer Perceval might have something to say about that, if you get an ouija board and ask him nicely.
I don't think there's any suggestion John Bellingham was inspired by political cartoons - he was a bankrupt businessman with mental health problems.
Satirical cartoons just are grotesque and tend to dehumanise their subjects. It seems to me that is the nature of the artform. And, in general, politicians themselves love them. If you go to a senior MP's home, more likely than not you'll see a framed print or two of horrible depictions of them in cartoons.
An odd bit of trivia quite a few will already is that the 1997 election saw Henry Bellingham (a distant descendant of the assassin) lose his seat to Labour by just over 1,000 votes... thanks in part to the intevention of Roger Percival (a distant descendant of the PM - despite the spelling difference) for the Referendum Party with about 3,000 votes. No doubt your ouija board would have had something to say on that!
I guess Starmer would argue that if he'd taken a different position on Gaza Labour may have done better in Oldham, Rochdale etc., but would have been less likely to win Rushmoor, Redditch etc.
It's pretty complex to work out potential gains vs. losses in relation to his Gaza stance. Hopefully, it will be less of an issue come the GE.
Bluntly, Labour can afford losses in the former, to make gains in the latter.
This is the return of triangulation that was so successful under Blair, until it wasn't.
Much like the Tories over the past 14 years, the goodwill of the centre erodes eventually - and it turns out you've lost your base too.
The Conservatives, like any party in power for a long time, is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Reenergize the base and wipe out reform, and you lose voters in the center and ramp up the willingness of people to vote tactically.
On the other hand, moves to the center result in you losing your base to either new parties or to Won't Bother Voting They're All The Same.
People are voting against the Conservatives because they haven't had a great four and a half years economically, with rising commodity prices and interest rates. They're hurting. (And that's true across the developed world, with incumbents being punished for rises in the cost of living.)
The rate of Tory losses might have slowed but there are quite a few large councils coming up with all seats up for election .
Dorset in particular could be very ugly for the Tories .
I think we'll see a repeat of last year's BCP decimation....
It will be interesting to see. I actually rate our Tory Dorset councillor, she works hard for her constituents. But no way was I going to vote for a Tory candidate. If only she'd defected to the Lib Dems.
My main hope is that David Sidwick wins the PCC election. IMO the best elected official I've ever had the privilege of helping.
The rate of Tory losses might have slowed but there are quite a few large councils coming up with all seats up for election .
Dorset in particular could be very ugly for the Tories .
I think we'll see a repeat of last year's BCP decimation....
It will be interesting to see. I actually rate our Tory Dorset councillor, she works hard for her constituents. But no way was I going to vote for a Tory candidate. If only she'd defected to the Lib Dems.
There was a by-election yesterday, in BCP which put the Conservatives up 10% on last year, but I've no idea if that will be repeated.
How did the ability to do this - meaning the ability of which this particular ability is one manifestation - evolve without language?
Doubtless Richard Loony Dawkins and Steven Bullshit Pinker could offer a knee-jerky materialist answer.
Makes you wonder what abilities humans possessed, and possibly still do possess in some sense despite the powerful and growing assaults on them by bean-counters digital.
Wait: you are seriously claiming that an orangutan chewing a herb with analgesic properties is evidence for God?
Surely it's simply evidence that - being genetically very similar to us - orangutans are smarter than some PB posters.
There's plenty of evidence of animals copying behaviour from each other. No language involved.
Indeed, right down to birds learning how to remove foil caps from milk bottles.
I'm not really buying the Street and Houchen running away from the Tory brand - all mayoral elections are about personal image particularly for incumbents. Look at Andy Burnham's manifesto on andy4mayor.co.uk and there's 2 mentions of Labour which are the small logo on front and back pages.
All the Mayors have run on personal, rather party brands.
Khan is no different - he runs as "Khan" not "The Labour Candidate, Khan"
The Khan leaflet I got was very clearly branded Labour.
Comments
Khan is no different - he runs as "Khan" not "The Labour Candidate, Khan"
In an alternative universe, a Johnson who had some of Churchill’s statesmanship would have told the country some honest, hard truths, and pushed through a compromise ‘Norway for now’ Brexit that only he had the political capital to land. And which probably aligned with his own personal beliefs, insofar as he has any. Just a shame that honest hard truths was so very far from his raison d’etre.
They are evolving
The National didn't exist then but I'm sure now if it put up a cartoon of Westminster leaders being hung it would be accepted with perfect equanimity.
It does remind us what a feature of Conservative progress Ferrari is. In addition to tripping Starmer up, Ferrari has been a fearless opponent of Khan, although Hall has even managed to soil herself whilst being interviewed by soft-touch Ferrari. I would say Ferrari was also instrumental in driving the Uxbridge anti-Ulez narrative and for months if not years before the by-election.
It's pretty complex to work out potential gains vs. losses in relation to his Gaza stance. Hopefully, it will be less of an issue come the GE.
I listened to THAT interview with Starmer live, it was quite astonishing when he appeared to agree/suggest Israel should cut off water to Gaza.
But all these big, combined authority mayor need to decide how to position themselves relative to those in power in Westminster. Houchen's mayoralty to date has been under a Tory government but he (and Street assuming he's got back) will be thinking about how to do that with a Labour government. They need to decide how far to be combative and how far to offer Starmer deals.
They will doubtless criticise Starmer (they are Conservatives ultimately - that isn't changing). But I suspect that will be tempered and have the flavour of an independent voice for the region rather than his master's voice - a successful economic development programme funded from Westminster and delivered in Walsall or in Hartlepool helps the mayors in those regions... but it also helps the Government, and both sides in that discussion know it.
Houchen's quote is a nod to that. It says to Starmer that he is open for business when the time comes, and that's just sensible, realistic politics.
But if the Muslim 60% Labour vote share (say) have voted on mass for the George Galloway candidate then the trend general trend is towards Labour but a significant percentage of old Labour vote has disappeared elsewhere (probably because of Gaza).
However, Labour’s *at best* fence sitting over Gaza has seemed cowardly and opportunistic. And I can say that whilst I agree with your analysis above I also understand that Labour’s stance has needlessly angered and alienated Muslim communities.
They've certainly cost the Conservatives some seats here and there, but averaging 14%, in one sixth of the seats, is piss-poor. If you took the 16% top results for any of Con, Lib Dem, Lab, Greens, they'd comfortably exceed that vote share.
Pause
But what is your opinion of the London Mayoral Election 2024?
(ducks)
tell me about cause of those rumours swirling before midnight last night Anabob - one from Labour saying very very tight very worried (why would the numpties do that after polls closed and it can't get more votes out?) and at least one from Hall camp (called something bizarre like her inner zone) claiming victory?
I would say to PB don't bet London today. its largely driven by rumours from a candidate ramping themselves, if Labour hadn’t joined in. Tories were suspiciously hopeful and confident about London all the way through campaign wern't they? 🤔
but i'm not allowed to say later today - "polls showed West Midlands as tight but it proved comfortable Tory win due to the Gaza Backlash syphon, so what does this mean for London" without you and mexy now unfairly calling me a RAMPER on a betting site??? just because you and others get upset by the thought of this defeat? 😡
anyway. satisfied with this answer. i'm not mentioning London till countings over. hold me to it.
Though I agree with you that Starmer messed up - I'm not a fan of his stance on Gaza personally, just trying to make sense of the thinking behind it.
I’m going to take a break.
You are going to have to psephologize without me.
Seems a quick shift?
https://twitter.com/MattGrossmann/status/1785664922883600687
The Republicans don't seem to be particularly honest in that poll, given their support for the Jan 6th events.
The result was 17 Tory, 16 Lab. But Labour points out the Tories owe their majority to James Leppard, who was suspended by the Tories in April
If he's not been readmitted, he's an independent, not Tory
https://twitter.com/elenicourea/status/1786342100750999742
I can't take politicians all that seriously at the moment, far too many of them are talking about the nice things they are going to do in the next parliament. I think it's a lot more likely they will be dealing with a series of crises, and all the nice things will be dumped to make way for emergency measures to deal with them. Boris thought he'd be levelling-up but had a pandemic and major European war with resulting high inflation to deal with instead. I expect Starmer's ambitions will be similarly thwarted, particularly if Trump is reelected.
In fact, Starmer made the wrong decision in my view by making calls for a ceasefire a sacking offence when what actually happened was inevitably going to happen. A ceasefire was wss going to be the consensus position and indeed Starmer's own position. So why not allow people to have different views on a ceasefire and then get to the common position they were always going to get to?
Starmer has lost votes because he made a mistake, not because he made an unpopular decision.
It looks like most people who voted independent in the Peterborough local elections voted for the Conservative candidate (most Peterborough independents are ex-Conservatives.)
It's worth remembering that some independents are quite right wing, which will account for some of the divergence in Mayoral and PCC elections from their Districts.
Or, someone will have a quiet word to remind him that there are consequences for voting the wrong way at the annual meeting….
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1786356051970797817?t=yEM49gNREIt7Roqgei5MNg&s=19
Dorset in particular could be very ugly for the Tories .
https://caselaw.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ewhc/admin/2024/995
Yep. Plenty more of his councillors to fall.
I don't think they will re-admit him this side of the General Election. It doesn't matter too much to them as long as he sticks his hand up at the right moments in the Council AGM. He clearly isn't on the left of the party given the nature of the suspension and, if he is even vaguely sane, he'll be a good boy and hope to be quietly re-admitted at a later date.
https://twitter.com/rcbregman/status/1786331219715616890
*I'm not sure that's true pre-1930s: what tax rate did Rockefeller pay back in the day ?
She's both won and lost, until the votes are counted.
After all, if she won, she would have to bethe Mayor, and would have to implement her manifesto. I doubt that either of those would go well.
So the false claims from Eastbourne and Torquay are officially dashed!
Much like the Tories over the past 14 years, the goodwill of the centre erodes eventually - and it turns out you've lost your base too.
The problem is that for each loophole, there is a political constituency protecting it. The genius of the tax lawyers was making sure that *everyone* gets some loopholes. So it is easy to sell the idea that flattened tax systems means that *you* lose.
Surely it's simply evidence that - being genetically very similar to us - orangutans are smarter than some PB posters.
You have to wonder which bit of women's equality they think is currently missing.
Things like average earnings for men vs women are now mostly (exclusively?) down to different career choices coupled to career breaks to have children.
I'm not convinced on the Council Tax point. Only two of the eight regional mayoral setups have ever used their power to set a precept.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-68609729
Satirical cartoons just are grotesque and tend to dehumanise their subjects. It seems to me that is the nature of the artform. And, in general, politicians themselves love them. If you go to a senior MP's home, more likely than not you'll see a framed print or two of horrible depictions of them in cartoons.
An odd bit of trivia quite a few will already is that the 1997 election saw Henry Bellingham (a distant descendant of the assassin) lose his seat to Labour by just over 1,000 votes... thanks in part to the intevention of Roger Percival (a distant descendant of the PM - despite the spelling difference) for the Referendum Party with about 3,000 votes. No doubt your ouija board would have had something to say on that!
On the other hand, moves to the center result in you losing your base to either new parties or to Won't Bother Voting They're All The Same.
People are voting against the Conservatives because they haven't had a great four and a half years economically, with rising commodity prices and interest rates. They're hurting. (And that's true across the developed world, with incumbents being punished for rises in the cost of living.)