Reform UK only stood in 8 of Southampton's 17 wards and didn't stand in either Conservative defence. They potentially cost the Tories 3 seats (wards where the Reform vote was more than the Labour majority)
It makes a lot of sense to bet on Hall when she is out in double figures. She has a very decent outside chance of winning. She needs the anti-Khan vote to come out (that is guaranteed), a lot of Labour vote complacency, minimal anti-Tory switching to Labour by LDs and Greens, and a large active rejection of Labour by Gaza-focused Muslims and others. That all seems very possible to me.
I just don't see it. She is invisible in London - which, while that doesn't broadcast her considerable negatives, won't get the vote out *for* her.
Hartlepool by 7%, 19% swing to Lab Redcar and Cleveland by 13%, 18.5% swing to Lab Boro by 1%, 18% swing to Labour
Andy Street loses I think on that kind of swing - but tight???
Yes - as it was mere 54-46 last time. But no. As it’s a different, different candidates (ones being investigated by the police as ineligible) and different circumstances.
As polling put Street ahead the Tories are right to be quietly confident.
So that will be at least three Tory wins including North Yorkshire and York, though mood music has been giving East Midlands to Labour. So at least 3-1 to the Tories from these battlegrounds.
I think Labour will walk Notts/Derbyshire (I refuse to refer to it as East Midlands since it only covers 2 of the 6 counties)
Off for a bit, but just refreshed the BBC news homepage. Lib Dems now with 4 more seats than the Conservatives, but the gain (+20) is just over half that (+39) of Independents. Lab gain is +59 at the time of writing.
Hartlepool by 7%, 19% swing to Lab Redcar and Cleveland by 13%, 18.5% swing to Lab Boro by 1%, 18% swing to Labour
Andy Street loses I think on that kind of swing - but tight???
Labour seem to be conceding the West Midlands mayoralty.
If Galloway's mob are polling well among Muslims, it could also help the Conservative PCC in Bedfordshire, where a Workers' Party candidate is running, and where Luton is about 25% Muslim.
Wonder what we’re going to see when Rochdale Council results come in. Expected from about 2.30pm onwards!
Birmingham Labour source calling West Midlands mayoralty for Andy Street. “We have beaten him as a general rule, but the Muslim vote has collapsed to the Galloway-backed independent.”
That quote is a nonsense. Reminds me of Labour frontbenchers in the 80s claiming the ‘moral victory’ whilst Maggie thrashed them every which way.
Hartlepool by 7%, 19% swing to Lab Redcar and Cleveland by 13%, 18.5% swing to Lab Boro by 1%, 18% swing to Labour
Andy Street loses I think on that kind of swing - but tight???
Yes - as it was mere 54-46 last time. But no. As it’s a different, different candidates (ones being investigated by the police as ineligible) and different circumstances.
As polling put Street ahead the Tories are right to be quietly confident.
So that will be at least three Tory wins including North Yorkshire and York, though mood music has been giving East Midlands to Labour. So at least 3-1 to the Tories from these battlegrounds.
What makes you think that the Tories will take North Yorkshire & York?
I think some tories mis-underestimate SKS. For the past two and half years he's been gradually feeding the tory party into a woodchipper. Now the tories have brought some of the well-deserved calamity on themselves and it's possible that with the slow-motion catastrophe of Brexit unfolding they ineffably doomed by SKS still had to make the right moves to capitalise on their mis-steps.
Remember, always, SKS is a lawyer.
His demolitions are less entertaining than a 900 words tossed off by a columnist, but they are much more likely to have the intended effect. The difference between blowing something up with a tonne of TNT and Fred Dibnah felling a chimney by pulling out the right bits at the bottom so it just collapses.
Impressive, once you accept that that's what you're looking at.
You are giving him far, far too much credit - Boris self destructed, with no help from Sir Keir, then Truss's budget caused huge panic and turned a mid term polling malaise into a complete cliff drop.
Starmer cheered on the lockdown which is responsible for the economy crashing and has taken either the wrong side (extending lockdown/trans issues), or both sides of every other argument. Labour aren't adding new votes anywhere, it's just that the Tories 2019 coalition of voters, that only Boris could conceivably hold together, has fractured.
There’s definitely a large number of dissatisfied Conservatives - but for many of them, they feel that every issue on which they’re dissatisfied will be made worse by a Labour government.
Hartlepool by 7%, 19% swing to Lab Redcar and Cleveland by 13%, 18.5% swing to Lab Boro by 1%, 18% swing to Labour
Andy Street loses I think on that kind of swing - but tight???
Labour seem to be conceding the West Midlands mayoralty.
If Galloway's mob are polling well among Muslims, it could also help the Conservative PCC in Bedfordshire, where a Workers' Party candidate is running, and where Luton is about 25% Muslim.
Wonder what we’re going to see when Rochdale Council results come in. Expected from about 2.30pm onwards!
Not a fan of the SNP at all, but that cartoon is loathsome.
Joking about killing elected politicians in a mainstream newspaper, further recommended by a supposedly mainstream TV channel, is an atrocious idea indeed, because of the obvious problem which all parties face these days.
Hartlepool by 7%, 19% swing to Lab Redcar and Cleveland by 13%, 18.5% swing to Lab Boro by 1%, 18% swing to Labour
Andy Street loses I think on that kind of swing - but tight???
Labour say they’ve lost because of votes going towards the George Galloway approved independent.
Why people vote on international issues for a local election with no international remit I don’t know
Voting is the only message that politicians really listen to, because it's the one that threatens their job. So if the international issue is important to you, and the vote for the local council is the vote you have, then it's not that silly to use that vote to send a message about the international issue.
It's definitely a bit of a problem for Starmer, but more in the sense that it tests whether he will panic under pressure.
Birmingham Labour source calling West Midlands mayoralty for Andy Street. “We have beaten him as a general rule, but the Muslim vote has collapsed to the Galloway-backed independent.”
If Street wins, does he actually become a potential contender for a next-but-one Tory leadership contest?
Hartlepool by 7%, 19% swing to Lab Redcar and Cleveland by 13%, 18.5% swing to Lab Boro by 1%, 18% swing to Labour
Andy Street loses I think on that kind of swing - but tight???
Yes - as it was mere 54-46 last time. But no. As it’s a different, different candidates (ones being investigated by the police as ineligible) and different circumstances.
As polling put Street ahead the Tories are right to be quietly confident.
So that will be at least three Tory wins including North Yorkshire and York, though mood music has been giving East Midlands to Labour. So at least 3-1 to the Tories from these battlegrounds.
I think Labour will walk Notts/Derbyshire (I refuse to refer to it as East Midlands since it only covers 2 of the 6 counties)
Yes, it's yet another bizarrely named mayoralty. Who comes up with these names? They need to rehire the person who came up with Greater Manchester and Greater London... and have him/her rebrand the rest accordingly.
Birmingham Labour source calling West Midlands mayoralty for Andy Street. “We have beaten him as a general rule, but the Muslim vote has collapsed to the Galloway-backed independent.”
That quote is a nonsense. Reminds me of Labour frontbenchers in the 80s claiming the ‘moral victory’ whilst Maggie thrashed them every which way.
It'll be interesting to see what if any impact, this has on Borough Council results in the West Midlands. It could help the Conservatives hold Solihull, Dudley, and Walsall.
Hartlepool by 7%, 19% swing to Lab Redcar and Cleveland by 13%, 18.5% swing to Lab Boro by 1%, 18% swing to Labour
Andy Street loses I think on that kind of swing - but tight???
Yes - as it was mere 54-46 last time. But no. As it’s a different, different candidates (ones being investigated by the police as ineligible) and different circumstances.
As polling put Street ahead the Tories are right to be quietly confident.
So that will be at least three Tory wins including North Yorkshire and York, though mood music has been giving East Midlands to Labour. So at least 3-1 to the Tories from these battlegrounds.
I think Labour will walk Notts/Derbyshire (I refuse to refer to it as East Midlands since it only covers 2 of the 6 counties)
Hartlepool by 7%, 19% swing to Lab Redcar and Cleveland by 13%, 18.5% swing to Lab Boro by 1%, 18% swing to Labour
Andy Street loses I think on that kind of swing - but tight???
Yes - as it was mere 54-46 last time. But no. As it’s a different, different candidates (ones being investigated by the police as ineligible) and different circumstances.
As polling put Street ahead the Tories are right to be quietly confident.
So that will be at least three Tory wins including North Yorkshire and York, though mood music has been giving East Midlands to Labour. So at least 3-1 to the Tories from these battlegrounds.
North Yorkshire and York shouldn't really be a battleground, it should be rock solid Tory. If that's a battleground then London, Liverpool City Region and Greater Manchester should count as battlegrounds too.
I think some tories mis-underestimate SKS. For the past two and half years he's been gradually feeding the tory party into a woodchipper. Now the tories have brought some of the well-deserved calamity on themselves and it's possible that with the slow-motion catastrophe of Brexit unfolding they ineffably doomed by SKS still had to make the right moves to capitalise on their mis-steps.
Remember, always, SKS is a lawyer.
His demolitions are less entertaining than a 900 words tossed off by a columnist, but they are much more likely to have the intended effect. The difference between blowing something up with a tonne of TNT and Fred Dibnah felling a chimney by pulling out the right bits at the bottom so it just collapses.
Impressive, once you accept that that's what you're looking at.
You are giving him far, far too much credit - Boris self destructed, with no help from Sir Keir, then Truss's budget caused huge panic and turned a mid term polling malaise into a complete cliff drop.
Starmer cheered on the lockdown which is responsible for the economy crashing and has taken either the wrong side (extending lockdown/trans issues), or both sides of every other argument. Labour aren't adding new votes anywhere, it's just that the Tories 2019 coalition of voters, that only Boris could conceivably hold together, has fractured.
98%.
Boris was flawed and was more to be seen as a hired gun in this case brought in to Get Brexit Done, which he did with great success. But hired guns aren't cut out to run the whole show. As we saw subsequently.
Boris needs great support, great team management, and to have competent people around him which would have allowed him to carry on being Boris. Instead, the hired gun got a bit carried away or rather, didn't think he needed a competent and robust team and thought he could wing running the show. And he couldn't.
That last bit is what I think you are missing. Boris was fantastic at that one specific task (Brexit) but that was it. He then thought, as did you, that he was good enough for broader management of party, government and country. He wasn't.
Boris wasn't fantastic at the specific task of Brexit. Boris was able to get Brexit done by lying about the problems, specifically how to accommodate Northern Ireland. Unless you mean he was fantastic at lying!
Of course he was fantastic about lying.
But he Got Brexit Done.
No one knew what it was to start with beyond contractually exiting the EU and he achieved that.
I mean I yield to no one in my disdain both for Brexit and Boris. But he cut through what had become a stalemate and Got Brexit Done, something we had voted for several years earlier. And no I still don't think a second vote would have been anti-democratic (a logistical and governance nightmare perhaps) but I digress.
TLDR: it was such a dishonest project that only a liar could deliver it.
It makes a lot of sense to bet on Hall when she is out in double figures. She has a very decent outside chance of winning. She needs the anti-Khan vote to come out (that is guaranteed), a lot of Labour vote complacency, minimal anti-Tory switching to Labour by LDs and Greens, and a large active rejection of Labour by Gaza-focused Muslims and others. That all seems very possible to me.
I just don't see it. She is invisible in London - which, while that doesn't broadcast her considerable negatives, won't get the vote out *for* her.
Reading PB, you would now be convinced that Hall is going to walk it. I'm already thinking of how to spend the £310 I have won on a tenner bet.
Not a fan of the SNP at all, but that cartoon is loathsome.
Joking about killing elected politicians in a mainstream newspaper, further recommended by a supposedly mainstream TV channel, is an atrocious idea indeed, because of the obvious problem which all parties face these days.
Yes, killing politicians is not a fit subject for humour.
A superb flowchart outlining what happens next from my excellent @PortlandComms colleagues including @Tom_Rayner. Includes the 11 possible Thursdays on which an election could be held between now and January.
It's a mistake to assume that if a new Tory leader is elected by MPs, they will be crowned "within weeks". It would probably be done within 4-5 days of calling the confidence vote.
I won't be surprised if the general election is in June or early July so the Tories can capitalise maximally on what seems to be the looming aggro on university campuses.
This will be the Rwanda + Gaza election.
I strongly doubt Hall will win in London (CCHQ psy play) but 👍 to all voters, Muslim or otherwise, who might otherwise have voted Labour but who will never vote Labour while it's led by a man who said the Israelis had the right to turn off the water supply to Gaza.
It makes a lot of sense to bet on Hall when she is out in double figures. She has a very decent outside chance of winning. She needs the anti-Khan vote to come out (that is guaranteed), a lot of Labour vote complacency, minimal anti-Tory switching to Labour by LDs and Greens, and a large active rejection of Labour by Gaza-focused Muslims and others. That all seems very possible to me.
I just don't see it. She is invisible in London - which, while that doesn't broadcast her considerable negatives, won't get the vote out *for* her.
She has a very large and highly motivated anti-Khan vote to build up from. There is no active support for Khan personally. He is reliant on enough of the generic Labour vote turning out.
OK it is pushing it a bit but vaguely interesting trivia for quiz conpilers.
That's a terrible fact for quiz compilers. Good quiz questions are things quite a few people once knew, can't quite remember, and might be able to guess. Winners of local elections in Stockport with slightly amusing names just don't fall into that category - way too niche.
Apparently the Tories think only about 2 million voted in London and 6 million were registered so around 33% .
That’s about 7% down on 2021.
Low turnout could also be due to Tories sitting on their hands, which seems to me at least as likely as all the non-voters being otherwise Labour supporters.
Very true. Though London is a peculiar one, in that you have a very prominent figurehead and an 8 year incumbent for the opposition party who is very divisive. It feels to me like London voters might not be quite the disillusioned Tories sitting on their hands that we have seen in the rest of the country. I would be gobsmacked if she wins, but I do think the result will be far closer than the polls predict.
So why would the polls be wrong? A 22% lead in last one from yougov.
Polls can always be wrong. They are only predictors, at the end of the day. There can be a myriad of reasons for this. Bailey outperformed the polls in 2021, for instance.
Of course if Hall wins (which, as I note, I’d be gobsmacked if she did) this would be a polling upset up there with the very biggest of them.
Wait. Polls aren’t forecasts is my line. 😇
One reason obviously for a Khan loss is Labour vote is down 16 points on 2021 in areas with a Muslim population, according to BBC. Labour down 16 points on average is a whopping figure isn’t it? No one predicted Gaza Backlash to be quite that impactful?
Some PBers said Gaza Backlash wouldn’t happen in London because Khans position is different to Starmer’s, but maybe it’s not worked out like that, like vote Khan get Starmer’s policy?
London has a very large Muslim population to be sure. It's 15% of the total. 16% of 15% is 2.4%. So what you're implying, crudely, is that Gaza led to 2.4% of Londoners abstaining. That's not really a whopping figure.
Contrast all that with the final YouGov this time round. It would be an absolute catastrophe for them and everyone else involved if Khan lost.
While a Hall win is certainly possible I see very little polling evidence, and that evidence is the best we have, pointing to anything other than a Khan win. The rest is partisan Tweets and anecdata.
Political punters are most likely following PB and @MoonRabbit has been ramping for Hall with every fifth post since 10pm last night.
Of course she could be correct.
I haven’t ramped anything. 😠Take a look at SouthamObserver at 11.54 - like me just explaining how/why.
If I say Labour are conceding West Midlands because of the Gaza Backlash, are you accusing me of Hall ramping?
This Gaza Backlash is a real thing, important to the General Election too if it costs Labour both West Midlands and London. Don’t blame the messengers.
I hope No.10 were not expecting a warm endorsement from Ben Houchen.
🔥"To be frank, it doesn't matter to me who the Prime Minister is... even if there's a change of government later this year or Rishi is still Prime Minister or it's somebody else."
Birmingham Labour source calling West Midlands mayoralty for Andy Street. “We have beaten him as a general rule, but the Muslim vote has collapsed to the Galloway-backed independent.”
If Street wins, does he actually become a potential contender for a next-but-one Tory leadership contest?
I wonder if Betfair punters are going too much on that one Birmingham quote - the West Mids is more than Brum. I've put £2 at 9 on Labour squeaking it (after previously putting £2 on Street when he was 2.1, so all green).
Not a fan of the SNP at all, but that cartoon is loathsome.
Joking about killing elected politicians in a mainstream newspaper, further recommended by a supposedly mainstream TV channel, is an atrocious idea indeed, because of the obvious problem which all parties face these days.
Yes, killing politicians is not a fit subject for humour.
Indeed. It also gilds the Unionist credentials of that newspaper and that broadcaster in a manner reminiscent of W Hotel Edinburgh.
OK it is pushing it a bit but vaguely interesting trivia for quiz conpilers.
That's a terrible fact for quiz compilers. Good quiz questions are things quite a few people vaguely might know, can't quite remember, and might be able to guess. Winners of local elections in Stockport with slightly amusing names just don't fall into that category - way too niche.
Spot on re quizzes - but it is an interesting piece of trivia for PB nerds.
@Steven_Swinford It looks increasingly like Rishi Sunak will survive
Tory rebels believed an alignment of three events was needed to get MPs over line for confidence vote:
1. Tories finishing third behind Reform in Blackpool South. In fact Tories scraped second with 117 votes. 2. Ben Houchen to lose Tees Valley despite getting 70%+ of vote in 2021. Labour is now conceding. 3. Andy Street to lose West Midlands. Labour sources suggesting he may have done enough to survive.
None of this is to underplay local election results - they are on course to be among the worst the Tories have ever seen
It just means the Tories are much less likely to move onto their fifth prime minister in the space of five years
Hartlepool by 7%, 19% swing to Lab Redcar and Cleveland by 13%, 18.5% swing to Lab Boro by 1%, 18% swing to Labour
Andy Street loses I think on that kind of swing - but tight???
Yes - as it was mere 54-46 last time. But no. As it’s a different, different candidates (ones being investigated by the police as ineligible) and different circumstances.
As polling put Street ahead the Tories are right to be quietly confident.
So that will be at least three Tory wins including North Yorkshire and York, though mood music has been giving East Midlands to Labour. So at least 3-1 to the Tories from these battlegrounds.
I think Labour will walk Notts/Derbyshire (I refuse to refer to it as East Midlands since it only covers 2 of the 6 counties)
Yes, it's yet another bizarrely named mayoralty. Who comes up with these names? They need to rehire the person who came up with Greater Manchester and Greater London... and have him/her rebrand the rest accordingly.
OK it is pushing it a bit but vaguely interesting trivia for quiz conpilers.
That's a terrible fact for quiz compilers. Good quiz questions are things quite a few people once knew, can't quite remember, and might be able to guess. Winners of local elections in Stockport with slightly amusing names just don't fall into that category - way too niche.
Not one of the wards where Angela Rayner lives, is it?
Birmingham Labour source calling West Midlands mayoralty for Andy Street. “We have beaten him as a general rule, but the Muslim vote has collapsed to the Galloway-backed independent.”
That quote is a nonsense. Reminds me of Labour frontbenchers in the 80s claiming the ‘moral victory’ whilst Maggie thrashed them every which way.
It'll be interesting to see what if any impact, this has on Borough Council results in the West Midlands. It could help the Conservatives hold Solihull, Dudley, and Walsall.
In theory, the fact there's borough elections in the outer West Midlands but not in Birmingham should benefit the Conservative candidate. If we look at the Avon & Somerset elections, the turnout from Bristol was 35% where there's a City Council election, there was no other election at BANES (21.5%), North Somerset (18.2%), Somerset (17.8%) and South Gloucs (20.4%). So Bristol made up about 25% of the electorate but ended up contributing nearly 40% of the votes.
Hartlepool by 7%, 19% swing to Lab Redcar and Cleveland by 13%, 18.5% swing to Lab Boro by 1%, 18% swing to Labour
Andy Street loses I think on that kind of swing - but tight???
Yes - as it was mere 54-46 last time. But no. As it’s a different, different candidates (ones being investigated by the police as ineligible) and different circumstances.
As polling put Street ahead the Tories are right to be quietly confident.
So that will be at least three Tory wins including North Yorkshire and York, though mood music has been giving East Midlands to Labour. So at least 3-1 to the Tories from these battlegrounds.
I think Labour will walk Notts/Derbyshire (I refuse to refer to it as East Midlands since it only covers 2 of the 6 counties)
"Northern East Midlands" if you like
Even 'Mayor of Nottinghamshire & Derbyshire' would be better...
Labour have probably gained the Cambridgeshire PCC from the Tories, based upon much higher turnout in Peterborough and Cambridge, the only two districts to have borough council elections (which accounts for the win in Avon & Somerset, as well).
Birmingham Labour source calling West Midlands mayoralty for Andy Street. “We have beaten him as a general rule, but the Muslim vote has collapsed to the Galloway-backed independent.”
If Street wins, does he actually become a potential contender for a next-but-one Tory leadership contest?
He’ll have to wait more than a year or two, surely?
Hartlepool by 7%, 19% swing to Lab Redcar and Cleveland by 13%, 18.5% swing to Lab Boro by 1%, 18% swing to Labour
Andy Street loses I think on that kind of swing - but tight???
Yes - as it was mere 54-46 last time. But no. As it’s a different, different candidates (ones being investigated by the police as ineligible) and different circumstances.
As polling put Street ahead the Tories are right to be quietly confident.
So that will be at least three Tory wins including North Yorkshire and York, though mood music has been giving East Midlands to Labour. So at least 3-1 to the Tories from these battlegrounds.
I think Labour will walk Notts/Derbyshire (I refuse to refer to it as East Midlands since it only covers 2 of the 6 counties)
"Northern East Midlands" if you like
Northeastern East Midlands, to be more accurate.
Which is starting to sound a bit more like some of the more obscure rugby divisions - "Midlands East North South 2", I think existed at one time.
OK it is pushing it a bit but vaguely interesting trivia for quiz conpilers.
That's a terrible fact for quiz compilers. Good quiz questions are things quite a few people once knew, can't quite remember, and might be able to guess. Winners of local elections in Stockport with slightly amusing names just don't fall into that category - way too niche.
Not one of the wards where Angela Rayner lives, is it?
Is there a ward that Angela Rayner doesn't live in?
@Steven_Swinford It looks increasingly like Rishi Sunak will survive
Tory rebels believed an alignment of three events was needed to get MPs over line for confidence vote:
1. Tories finishing third behind Reform in Blackpool South. In fact Tories scraped second with 117 votes. 2. Ben Houchen to lose Tees Valley despite getting 70%+ of vote in 2021. Labour is now conceding. 3. Andy Street to lose West Midlands. Labour sources suggesting he may have done enough to survive.
None of this is to underplay local election results - they are on course to be among the worst the Tories have ever seen
It just means the Tories are much less likely to move onto their fifth prime minister in the space of five years
At the moment it FEELS like the GE is now more likely to be Q4. Rishi going nowhere. Time for another Financial Statement in Sept before the election in Oct/Nov.
Birmingham Labour source calling West Midlands mayoralty for Andy Street. “We have beaten him as a general rule, but the Muslim vote has collapsed to the Galloway-backed independent.”
That quote is a nonsense. Reminds me of Labour frontbenchers in the 80s claiming the ‘moral victory’ whilst Maggie thrashed them every which way.
It'll be interesting to see what if any impact, this has on Borough Council results in the West Midlands. It could help the Conservatives hold Solihull, Dudley, and Walsall.
In theory, the fact there's borough elections in the outer West Midlands but not in Birmingham should benefit the Conservative candidate. If we look at the Avon & Somerset elections, the turnout from Bristol was 35% where there's a City Council election, there was no other election at BANES (21.5%), North Somerset (18.2%), Somerset (17.8%) and South Gloucs (20.4%). So Bristol made up about 25% of the electorate but ended up contributing nearly 40% of the votes.
Apparently the Tories think only about 2 million voted in London and 6 million were registered so around 33% .
That’s about 7% down on 2021.
Low turnout could also be due to Tories sitting on their hands, which seems to me at least as likely as all the non-voters being otherwise Labour supporters.
Very true. Though London is a peculiar one, in that you have a very prominent figurehead and an 8 year incumbent for the opposition party who is very divisive. It feels to me like London voters might not be quite the disillusioned Tories sitting on their hands that we have seen in the rest of the country. I would be gobsmacked if she wins, but I do think the result will be far closer than the polls predict.
So why would the polls be wrong? A 22% lead in last one from yougov.
Polls can always be wrong. They are only predictors, at the end of the day. There can be a myriad of reasons for this. Bailey outperformed the polls in 2021, for instance.
Of course if Hall wins (which, as I note, I’d be gobsmacked if she did) this would be a polling upset up there with the very biggest of them.
Wait. Polls aren’t forecasts is my line. 😇
One reason obviously for a Khan loss is Labour vote is down 16 points on 2021 in areas with a Muslim population, according to BBC. Labour down 16 points on average is a whopping figure isn’t it? No one predicted Gaza Backlash to be quite that impactful?
Some PBers said Gaza Backlash wouldn’t happen in London because Khans position is different to Starmer’s, but maybe it’s not worked out like that, like vote Khan get Starmer’s policy?
London has a very large Muslim population to be sure. It's 15% of the total. 16% of 15% is 2.4%. So what you're implying, crudely, is that Gaza led to 2.4% of Londoners abstaining. That's not really a whopping figure.
Contrast all that with the final YouGov this time round. It would be an absolute catastrophe for them and everyone else involved if Khan lost.
While a Hall win is certainly possible I see very little polling evidence, and that evidence is the best we have, pointing to anything other than a Khan win. The rest is partisan Tweets and anecdata.
Political punters are most likely following PB and @MoonRabbit has been ramping for Hall with every fifth post since 10pm last night.
Of course she could be correct.
I haven’t ramped anything. 😠Take a look at SouthamObserver at 11.54 - like me just explaining how/why.
If I say Labour are conceding West Midlands because of the Gaza Backlash, are you accusing me of Hall ramping?
This Gaza Backlash is a real thing, important to the General Election too if it costs Labour both West Midlands and London. Don’t blame the messengers.
OK it is pushing it a bit but vaguely interesting trivia for quiz conpilers.
That's a terrible fact for quiz compilers. Good quiz questions are things quite a few people once knew, can't quite remember, and might be able to guess. Winners of local elections in Stockport with slightly amusing names just don't fall into that category - way too niche.
Not one of the wards where Angela Rayner lives, is it?
Not two of the wards where Angela Rayner lives, is it?
OK it is pushing it a bit but vaguely interesting trivia for quiz conpilers.
That's a terrible fact for quiz compilers. Good quiz questions are things quite a few people once knew, can't quite remember, and might be able to guess. Winners of local elections in Stockport with slightly amusing names just don't fall into that category - way too niche.
Not one of the wards where Angela Rayner lives, is it?
Is there a ward that Angela Rayner doesn't live in?
Hartlepool by 7%, 19% swing to Lab Redcar and Cleveland by 13%, 18.5% swing to Lab Boro by 1%, 18% swing to Labour
Andy Street loses I think on that kind of swing - but tight???
Yes - as it was mere 54-46 last time. But no. As it’s a different, different candidates (ones being investigated by the police as ineligible) and different circumstances.
As polling put Street ahead the Tories are right to be quietly confident.
So that will be at least three Tory wins including North Yorkshire and York, though mood music has been giving East Midlands to Labour. So at least 3-1 to the Tories from these battlegrounds.
I think Labour will walk Notts/Derbyshire (I refuse to refer to it as East Midlands since it only covers 2 of the 6 counties)
"Northern East Midlands" if you like
Even 'Mayor of Nottinghamshire & Derbyshire' would be better...
Until 1568 Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire did not exist as separate counties but were combined under a single Sheriff.
Birmingham Labour source calling West Midlands mayoralty for Andy Street. “We have beaten him as a general rule, but the Muslim vote has collapsed to the Galloway-backed independent.”
If Street wins, does he actually become a potential contender for a next-but-one Tory leadership contest?
I wonder if Betfair punters are going too much on that one Birmingham quote - the West Mids is more than Brum. I've put £2 at 9 on Labour squeaking it (after previously putting £2 on Street when he was 2.1, so all green).
Allegedly, Sutton Coldfield is turning out very heavily for Street.
Hartlepool by 7%, 19% swing to Lab Redcar and Cleveland by 13%, 18.5% swing to Lab Boro by 1%, 18% swing to Labour
Andy Street loses I think on that kind of swing - but tight???
Yes - as it was mere 54-46 last time. But no. As it’s a different, different candidates (ones being investigated by the police as ineligible) and different circumstances.
As polling put Street ahead the Tories are right to be quietly confident.
So that will be at least three Tory wins including North Yorkshire and York, though mood music has been giving East Midlands to Labour. So at least 3-1 to the Tories from these battlegrounds.
I think Labour will walk Notts/Derbyshire (I refuse to refer to it as East Midlands since it only covers 2 of the 6 counties)
"Northern East Midlands" if you like
Even 'Mayor of Nottinghamshire & Derbyshire' would be better...
Until 1568 Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire did not exist as separate counties but were combined under a single Sheriff.
I think some tories mis-underestimate SKS. For the past two and half years he's been gradually feeding the tory party into a woodchipper. Now the tories have brought some of the well-deserved calamity on themselves and it's possible that with the slow-motion catastrophe of Brexit unfolding they ineffably doomed by SKS still had to make the right moves to capitalise on their mis-steps.
Remember, always, SKS is a lawyer.
His demolitions are less entertaining than a 900 words tossed off by a columnist, but they are much more likely to have the intended effect. The difference between blowing something up with a tonne of TNT and Fred Dibnah felling a chimney by pulling out the right bits at the bottom so it just collapses.
Impressive, once you accept that that's what you're looking at.
You are giving him far, far too much credit - Boris self destructed, with no help from Sir Keir, then Truss's budget caused huge panic and turned a mid term polling malaise into a complete cliff drop.
Starmer cheered on the lockdown which is responsible for the economy crashing and has taken either the wrong side (extending lockdown/trans issues), or both sides of every other argument. Labour aren't adding new votes anywhere, it's just that the Tories 2019 coalition of voters, that only Boris could conceivably hold together, has fractured.
98%.
Boris was flawed and was more to be seen as a hired gun in this case brought in to Get Brexit Done, which he did with great success. But hired guns aren't cut out to run the whole show. As we saw subsequently.
Boris needs great support, great team management, and to have competent people around him which would have allowed him to carry on being Boris. Instead, the hired gun got a bit carried away or rather, didn't think he needed a competent and robust team and thought he could wing running the show. And he couldn't.
That last bit is what I think you are missing. Boris was fantastic at that one specific task (Brexit) but that was it. He then thought, as did you, that he was good enough for broader management of party, government and country. He wasn't.
Boris wasn't fantastic at the specific task of Brexit. Boris was able to get Brexit done by lying about the problems, specifically how to accommodate Northern Ireland. Unless you mean he was fantastic at lying!
Of course he was fantastic about lying.
But he Got Brexit Done.
No one knew what it was to start with beyond contractually exiting the EU and he achieved that.
I mean I yield to no one in my disdain both for Brexit and Boris. But he cut through what had become a stalemate and Got Brexit Done, something we had voted for several years earlier. And no I still don't think a second vote would have been anti-democratic (a logistical and governance nightmare perhaps) but I digress.
TLDR: it was such a dishonest project that only a liar could deliver it.
Brexit was leaving the EU. We left the EU.
Yes, but Mrs May’s first thought was to do the right thing by the country and go for a compromise soft Brexit, but she quickly realised she couldn’t deliver it.
So she tried to go for a harder Brexit, explained honestly, which no-one liked.
The Brexit we got could only be delivered by a liar; the same liar who landed us with it in the first place. And so it was.
Hartlepool by 7%, 19% swing to Lab Redcar and Cleveland by 13%, 18.5% swing to Lab Boro by 1%, 18% swing to Labour
Andy Street loses I think on that kind of swing - but tight???
Yes - as it was mere 54-46 last time. But no. As it’s a different, different candidates (ones being investigated by the police as ineligible) and different circumstances.
As polling put Street ahead the Tories are right to be quietly confident.
So that will be at least three Tory wins including North Yorkshire and York, though mood music has been giving East Midlands to Labour. So at least 3-1 to the Tories from these battlegrounds.
I think Labour will walk Notts/Derbyshire (I refuse to refer to it as East Midlands since it only covers 2 of the 6 counties)
"Northern East Midlands" if you like
Even 'Mayor of Nottinghamshire & Derbyshire' would be better...
Until 1568 Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire did not exist as separate counties but were combined under a single Sheriff.
I dare say an election for Sheriff of Nottingham would have unpleasant connotations locally, and globally
I can now cash out on Hall and double my stake. Will let it ride. If she wins I'll need to drown my sorrows with a good dinner.
I think that would be a wise move.
Yeah. I think seeing Hall as a value bet is unwise, but knowing how you can have these swings in the markets while we await the results, it can be logical to take on a trading bet... but then you do have to trade out at the right time.
OK it is pushing it a bit but vaguely interesting trivia for quiz conpilers.
That's a terrible fact for quiz compilers. Good quiz questions are things quite a few people once knew, can't quite remember, and might be able to guess. Winners of local elections in Stockport with slightly amusing names just don't fall into that category - way too niche.
Not one of the wards where Angela Rayner lives, is it?
Is there a ward that Angela Rayner doesn't live in?
She doesn’t live in the one where Heathener doesn’t have a friend or relative or passing brother?
Birmingham Labour source calling West Midlands mayoralty for Andy Street. “We have beaten him as a general rule, but the Muslim vote has collapsed to the Galloway-backed independent.”
If Street wins, does he actually become a potential contender for a next-but-one Tory leadership contest?
I wonder if Betfair punters are going too much on that one Birmingham quote - the West Mids is more than Brum. I've put £2 at 9 on Labour squeaking it (after previously putting £2 on Street when he was 2.1, so all green).
Allegedly, Sutton Coldfield is turning out very heavily for Street.
Politics needs a whole load more Andy Streets, and a whole load fewer 30-something former SpAds who have achieved nothing in life.
Apparently the Tories think only about 2 million voted in London and 6 million were registered so around 33% .
That’s about 7% down on 2021.
Low turnout could also be due to Tories sitting on their hands, which seems to me at least as likely as all the non-voters being otherwise Labour supporters.
Very true. Though London is a peculiar one, in that you have a very prominent figurehead and an 8 year incumbent for the opposition party who is very divisive. It feels to me like London voters might not be quite the disillusioned Tories sitting on their hands that we have seen in the rest of the country. I would be gobsmacked if she wins, but I do think the result will be far closer than the polls predict.
So why would the polls be wrong? A 22% lead in last one from yougov.
Polls can always be wrong. They are only predictors, at the end of the day. There can be a myriad of reasons for this. Bailey outperformed the polls in 2021, for instance.
Of course if Hall wins (which, as I note, I’d be gobsmacked if she did) this would be a polling upset up there with the very biggest of them.
Wait. Polls aren’t forecasts is my line. 😇
One reason obviously for a Khan loss is Labour vote is down 16 points on 2021 in areas with a Muslim population, according to BBC. Labour down 16 points on average is a whopping figure isn’t it? No one predicted Gaza Backlash to be quite that impactful?
Some PBers said Gaza Backlash wouldn’t happen in London because Khans position is different to Starmer’s, but maybe it’s not worked out like that, like vote Khan get Starmer’s policy?
London has a very large Muslim population to be sure. It's 15% of the total. 16% of 15% is 2.4%. So what you're implying, crudely, is that Gaza led to 2.4% of Londoners abstaining. That's not really a whopping figure.
Contrast all that with the final YouGov this time round. It would be an absolute catastrophe for them and everyone else involved if Khan lost.
While a Hall win is certainly possible I see very little polling evidence, and that evidence is the best we have, pointing to anything other than a Khan win. The rest is partisan Tweets and anecdata.
Political punters are most likely following PB and @MoonRabbit has been ramping for Hall with every fifth post since 10pm last night.
Of course she could be correct.
I am 100% confident Khan has won.
(No-one mention how wrong I was with my last political bet on the Rochdale by-election.)
I notice you don't specify which Khan in which election
I'm 100% confident Khan has won London, FWIW (in 2016 and 2021)
I am 100% confident Khan has won... in the second act of the second Star Trek film.
Hartlepool by 7%, 19% swing to Lab Redcar and Cleveland by 13%, 18.5% swing to Lab Boro by 1%, 18% swing to Labour
Andy Street loses I think on that kind of swing - but tight???
Yes - as it was mere 54-46 last time. But no. As it’s a different, different candidates (ones being investigated by the police as ineligible) and different circumstances.
As polling put Street ahead the Tories are right to be quietly confident.
So that will be at least three Tory wins including North Yorkshire and York, though mood music has been giving East Midlands to Labour. So at least 3-1 to the Tories from these battlegrounds.
I think Labour will walk Notts/Derbyshire (I refuse to refer to it as East Midlands since it only covers 2 of the 6 counties)
Yes, it's yet another bizarrely named mayoralty. Who comes up with these names? They need to rehire the person who came up with Greater Manchester and Greater London... and have him/her rebrand the rest accordingly.
Call it Middle Trent.
That rather neglects Derbyshire imo, and North Notts. It's a bit Geoff the complete Hoon, who used to commute into Ashfield from the Trent Valley flatzone.
"Trent and the Peaks" or "Trent and the Dukeries."
(TBF officially the Dukeries don't stretch to the Dukes' of Devonshire domain.)
Hartlepool by 7%, 19% swing to Lab Redcar and Cleveland by 13%, 18.5% swing to Lab Boro by 1%, 18% swing to Labour
Andy Street loses I think on that kind of swing - but tight???
Yes - as it was mere 54-46 last time. But no. As it’s a different, different candidates (ones being investigated by the police as ineligible) and different circumstances.
As polling put Street ahead the Tories are right to be quietly confident.
So that will be at least three Tory wins including North Yorkshire and York, though mood music has been giving East Midlands to Labour. So at least 3-1 to the Tories from these battlegrounds.
I think Labour will walk Notts/Derbyshire (I refuse to refer to it as East Midlands since it only covers 2 of the 6 counties)
"Northern East Midlands" if you like
Even 'Mayor of Nottinghamshire & Derbyshire' would be better...
Until 1568 Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire did not exist as separate counties but were combined under a single Sheriff.
OK it is pushing it a bit but vaguely interesting trivia for quiz conpilers.
That's a terrible fact for quiz compilers. Good quiz questions are things quite a few people once knew, can't quite remember, and might be able to guess. Winners of local elections in Stockport with slightly amusing names just don't fall into that category - way too niche.
Not one of the wards where Angela Rayner lives, is it?
Is there a ward that Angela Rayner doesn't live in?
She doesn’t live in the one where Heathener doesn’t have a friend or relative or passing brother?
I think some tories mis-underestimate SKS. For the past two and half years he's been gradually feeding the tory party into a woodchipper. Now the tories have brought some of the well-deserved calamity on themselves and it's possible that with the slow-motion catastrophe of Brexit unfolding they ineffably doomed by SKS still had to make the right moves to capitalise on their mis-steps.
Remember, always, SKS is a lawyer.
His demolitions are less entertaining than a 900 words tossed off by a columnist, but they are much more likely to have the intended effect. The difference between blowing something up with a tonne of TNT and Fred Dibnah felling a chimney by pulling out the right bits at the bottom so it just collapses.
Impressive, once you accept that that's what you're looking at.
You are giving him far, far too much credit - Boris self destructed, with no help from Sir Keir, then Truss's budget caused huge panic and turned a mid term polling malaise into a complete cliff drop.
Starmer cheered on the lockdown which is responsible for the economy crashing and has taken either the wrong side (extending lockdown/trans issues), or both sides of every other argument. Labour aren't adding new votes anywhere, it's just that the Tories 2019 coalition of voters, that only Boris could conceivably hold together, has fractured.
98%.
Boris was flawed and was more to be seen as a hired gun in this case brought in to Get Brexit Done, which he did with great success. But hired guns aren't cut out to run the whole show. As we saw subsequently.
Boris needs great support, great team management, and to have competent people around him which would have allowed him to carry on being Boris. Instead, the hired gun got a bit carried away or rather, didn't think he needed a competent and robust team and thought he could wing running the show. And he couldn't.
That last bit is what I think you are missing. Boris was fantastic at that one specific task (Brexit) but that was it. He then thought, as did you, that he was good enough for broader management of party, government and country. He wasn't.
Boris wasn't fantastic at the specific task of Brexit. Boris was able to get Brexit done by lying about the problems, specifically how to accommodate Northern Ireland. Unless you mean he was fantastic at lying!
Of course he was fantastic about lying.
But he Got Brexit Done.
No one knew what it was to start with beyond contractually exiting the EU and he achieved that.
I mean I yield to no one in my disdain both for Brexit and Boris. But he cut through what had become a stalemate and Got Brexit Done, something we had voted for several years earlier. And no I still don't think a second vote would have been anti-democratic (a logistical and governance nightmare perhaps) but I digress.
TLDR: it was such a dishonest project that only a liar could deliver it.
Brexit was leaving the EU. We left the EU.
Except, arguably, for Northern Ireland, which hasn't, which is the bit that Boris lied about.
Hartlepool by 7%, 19% swing to Lab Redcar and Cleveland by 13%, 18.5% swing to Lab Boro by 1%, 18% swing to Labour
Andy Street loses I think on that kind of swing - but tight???
Yes - as it was mere 54-46 last time. But no. As it’s a different, different candidates (ones being investigated by the police as ineligible) and different circumstances.
As polling put Street ahead the Tories are right to be quietly confident.
So that will be at least three Tory wins including North Yorkshire and York, though mood music has been giving East Midlands to Labour. So at least 3-1 to the Tories from these battlegrounds.
I think Labour will walk Notts/Derbyshire (I refuse to refer to it as East Midlands since it only covers 2 of the 6 counties)
"Northern East Midlands" if you like
Even 'Mayor of Nottinghamshire & Derbyshire' would be better...
Until 1568 Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire did not exist as separate counties but were combined under a single Sheriff.
Hartlepool by 7%, 19% swing to Lab Redcar and Cleveland by 13%, 18.5% swing to Lab Boro by 1%, 18% swing to Labour
Andy Street loses I think on that kind of swing - but tight???
Yes - as it was mere 54-46 last time. But no. As it’s a different, different candidates (ones being investigated by the police as ineligible) and different circumstances.
As polling put Street ahead the Tories are right to be quietly confident.
So that will be at least three Tory wins including North Yorkshire and York, though mood music has been giving East Midlands to Labour. So at least 3-1 to the Tories from these battlegrounds.
I think Labour will walk Notts/Derbyshire (I refuse to refer to it as East Midlands since it only covers 2 of the 6 counties)
Yes, it's yet another bizarrely named mayoralty. Who comes up with these names? They need to rehire the person who came up with Greater Manchester and Greater London... and have him/her rebrand the rest accordingly.
Call it Middle Trent.
That rather neglects Derbyshire imo, and North Notts.
"Middle Trent and the Peaks" or "Middle Trent and the Dukeries."
(TBF officially the Dukeries don't stretch to the Dukes' of Devonshire domain.)
I hope No.10 were not expecting a warm endorsement from Ben Houchen.
🔥"To be frank, it doesn't matter to me who the Prime Minister is... even if there's a change of government later this year or Rishi is still Prime Minister or it's somebody else."
OUCH. ~AA
Incumbency does give these mayors quite a boost. If new places end up going with National polls but incumbents cling on, it will be quite stark.
And especially when they make out they have gone native, party independent, just in it for their voters and the region they love since birth…
Personally I don’t buy it. It’s bullshit. They are still members of that party. Where so much politics is done behind the scenes, these people are actually bullshitting voters making out they’re independent.
Wonder if Tory MPs pull the same con trick on mass at the GE?
Not a fan of the SNP at all, but that cartoon is loathsome.
Joking about killing elected politicians in a mainstream newspaper, further recommended by a supposedly mainstream TV channel, is an atrocious idea indeed, because of the obvious problem which all parties face these days.
Lindsay Hoyle will be having coniptions, enough to make one finagle parliamentary procedure out of concern for pols!
Not a fan of the SNP at all, but that cartoon is loathsome.
Joking about killing elected politicians in a mainstream newspaper, further recommended by a supposedly mainstream TV channel, is an atrocious idea indeed, because of the obvious problem which all parties face these days.
I can now cash out on Hall and double my stake. Will let it ride. If she wins I'll need to drown my sorrows with a good dinner.
I think that would be a wise move.
Yeah. I think seeing Hall as a value bet is unwise, but knowing how you can have these swings in the markets while we await the results, it can be logical to take on a trading bet... but then you do have to trade out at the right time.
It's an insurance bet in my case. £310 from a tenner bet to cushion the blow if that idiot becomes mayor.
A senior party source said: "It’s the Middle East, not West Midlands, that will have won [Conservative candidate] Andy Street the mayoralty. Once again Hamas are the real villains."
A Conservative source told me that quote is "vile" and they insist the contest is "extremely close".
I find myself agreeing with the Conservative source. That quote *is* vile.
Birmingham Labour source calling West Midlands mayoralty for Andy Street. “We have beaten him as a general rule, but the Muslim vote has collapsed to the Galloway-backed independent.”
If Street wins, does he actually become a potential contender for a next-but-one Tory leadership contest?
I wonder if Betfair punters are going too much on that one Birmingham quote - the West Mids is more than Brum. I've put £2 at 9 on Labour squeaking it (after previously putting £2 on Street when he was 2.1, so all green).
Allegedly, Sutton Coldfield is turning out very heavily for Street.
Politics needs a whole load more Andy Streets, and a whole load fewer 30-something former SpAds who have achieved nothing in life.
This one might be available (and might make a good health sec).
Birmingham Labour source calling West Midlands mayoralty for Andy Street. “We have beaten him as a general rule, but the Muslim vote has collapsed to the Galloway-backed independent.”
If Street wins, does he actually become a potential contender for a next-but-one Tory leadership contest?
I wonder if Betfair punters are going too much on that one Birmingham quote - the West Mids is more than Brum. I've put £2 at 9 on Labour squeaking it (after previously putting £2 on Street when he was 2.1, so all green).
Allegedly, Sutton Coldfield is turning out very heavily for Street.
Politics needs a whole load more Andy Streets, and a whole load fewer 30-something former SpAds who have achieved nothing in life.
This one might be available (and might make a good health sec).
How did the ability to do this - meaning the ability of which this particular ability is one manifestation - evolve without language?
Doubtless Richard Loony Dawkins and Steven Bullshit Pinker could offer a knee-jerky materialist answer.
Makes you wonder what abilities humans possessed, and possibly still do possess in some sense despite the powerful and growing assaults on them by bean-counters digital.
I think some tories mis-underestimate SKS. For the past two and half years he's been gradually feeding the tory party into a woodchipper. Now the tories have brought some of the well-deserved calamity on themselves and it's possible that with the slow-motion catastrophe of Brexit unfolding they ineffably doomed by SKS still had to make the right moves to capitalise on their mis-steps.
Remember, always, SKS is a lawyer.
His demolitions are less entertaining than a 900 words tossed off by a columnist, but they are much more likely to have the intended effect. The difference between blowing something up with a tonne of TNT and Fred Dibnah felling a chimney by pulling out the right bits at the bottom so it just collapses.
Impressive, once you accept that that's what you're looking at.
You are giving him far, far too much credit - Boris self destructed, with no help from Sir Keir, then Truss's budget caused huge panic and turned a mid term polling malaise into a complete cliff drop.
Starmer cheered on the lockdown which is responsible for the economy crashing and has taken either the wrong side (extending lockdown/trans issues), or both sides of every other argument. Labour aren't adding new votes anywhere, it's just that the Tories 2019 coalition of voters, that only Boris could conceivably hold together, has fractured.
98%.
Boris was flawed and was more to be seen as a hired gun in this case brought in to Get Brexit Done, which he did with great success. But hired guns aren't cut out to run the whole show. As we saw subsequently.
Boris needs great support, great team management, and to have competent people around him which would have allowed him to carry on being Boris. Instead, the hired gun got a bit carried away or rather, didn't think he needed a competent and robust team and thought he could wing running the show. And he couldn't.
That last bit is what I think you are missing. Boris was fantastic at that one specific task (Brexit) but that was it. He then thought, as did you, that he was good enough for broader management of party, government and country. He wasn't.
Boris wasn't fantastic at the specific task of Brexit. Boris was able to get Brexit done by lying about the problems, specifically how to accommodate Northern Ireland. Unless you mean he was fantastic at lying!
Of course he was fantastic about lying.
But he Got Brexit Done.
No one knew what it was to start with beyond contractually exiting the EU and he achieved that.
I mean I yield to no one in my disdain both for Brexit and Boris. But he cut through what had become a stalemate and Got Brexit Done, something we had voted for several years earlier. And no I still don't think a second vote would have been anti-democratic (a logistical and governance nightmare perhaps) but I digress.
TLDR: it was such a dishonest project that only a liar could deliver it.
Brexit was leaving the EU. We left the EU.
Yes, but Mrs May’s first thought was to do the right thing by the country and go for a compromise soft Brexit, but she quickly realised she couldn’t deliver it.
So she tried to go for a harder Brexit, explained honestly, which no-one liked.
The Brexit we got could only be delivered by a liar; the same liar who landed us with it in the first place. And so it was.
Be absolutely clear, Theresa May did not want a "soft Brexit".
"Rob Mayor @robmayorLabour sources tell me they believe they have lost the West Midlands Mayoral election, with their campaign severely dented by the issue of Gaza. They think independent Akhmed Yakoob will come third in some areas.
Votes won't be counted till tomorrow.
Labour source: 'It's the Middle East, not West Midlands that will have won Street the Mayoralty. Once again Hamas are the real villains.'
Looking forward to the Bristol City Council count, here's the Bristol City vote for the Avon & Somerset PCC election.
Labour 47,220 Green 37,375 Conservative 19,788 Liberal Democrats 10,412
Based on that Labour should get a majority in these all-out elections, it'll be interesting to see how well Greens do in the Bristol West wards.
Based on that, looks more like plurality?
In fact I’m calling it. Bristols neck and neck between Labour and Greens for plurality! After… 0 of 70 seats so far declared.
Hope Labour beat the greens. BigJohnsOwls the lot of em. 🤨
Elections don't work like that, it's completely possible (in fact probable) to win a majority with 41% of the vote if the 2nd party is on 33%.
Labour in Southampton only got 40.3% of the total vote and still won 12 out of 17 wards.
I say no on the basis you are clearly overlooking libdem seats and Tory council seats in their parts of Bristols. For that reason Greens and Labour squabbling over plurality at best.
I think some tories mis-underestimate SKS. For the past two and half years he's been gradually feeding the tory party into a woodchipper. Now the tories have brought some of the well-deserved calamity on themselves and it's possible that with the slow-motion catastrophe of Brexit unfolding they ineffably doomed by SKS still had to make the right moves to capitalise on their mis-steps.
Remember, always, SKS is a lawyer.
His demolitions are less entertaining than a 900 words tossed off by a columnist, but they are much more likely to have the intended effect. The difference between blowing something up with a tonne of TNT and Fred Dibnah felling a chimney by pulling out the right bits at the bottom so it just collapses.
Impressive, once you accept that that's what you're looking at.
You are giving him far, far too much credit - Boris self destructed, with no help from Sir Keir, then Truss's budget caused huge panic and turned a mid term polling malaise into a complete cliff drop.
Starmer cheered on the lockdown which is responsible for the economy crashing and has taken either the wrong side (extending lockdown/trans issues), or both sides of every other argument. Labour aren't adding new votes anywhere, it's just that the Tories 2019 coalition of voters, that only Boris could conceivably hold together, has fractured.
98%.
Boris was flawed and was more to be seen as a hired gun in this case brought in to Get Brexit Done, which he did with great success. But hired guns aren't cut out to run the whole show. As we saw subsequently.
Boris needs great support, great team management, and to have competent people around him which would have allowed him to carry on being Boris. Instead, the hired gun got a bit carried away or rather, didn't think he needed a competent and robust team and thought he could wing running the show. And he couldn't.
That last bit is what I think you are missing. Boris was fantastic at that one specific task (Brexit) but that was it. He then thought, as did you, that he was good enough for broader management of party, government and country. He wasn't.
Boris wasn't fantastic at the specific task of Brexit. Boris was able to get Brexit done by lying about the problems, specifically how to accommodate Northern Ireland. Unless you mean he was fantastic at lying!
Of course he was fantastic about lying.
But he Got Brexit Done.
No one knew what it was to start with beyond contractually exiting the EU and he achieved that.
I mean I yield to no one in my disdain both for Brexit and Boris. But he cut through what had become a stalemate and Got Brexit Done, something we had voted for several years earlier. And no I still don't think a second vote would have been anti-democratic (a logistical and governance nightmare perhaps) but I digress.
TLDR: it was such a dishonest project that only a liar could deliver it.
Brexit was leaving the EU. We left the EU.
Yes, but Mrs May’s first thought was to do the right thing by the country and go for a compromise soft Brexit, but she quickly realised she couldn’t deliver it.
So she tried to go for a harder Brexit, explained honestly, which no-one liked.
The Brexit we got could only be delivered by a liar; the same liar who landed us with it in the first place. And so it was.
Be absolutely clear, Theresa May did not want a "soft Brexit".
I refer you to Jeremy Heywood’s autobiography (by his wife). She considered it, but it didn’t take her long to discount it as unachievable. Sadly for all of us.
I think some tories mis-underestimate SKS. For the past two and half years he's been gradually feeding the tory party into a woodchipper. Now the tories have brought some of the well-deserved calamity on themselves and it's possible that with the slow-motion catastrophe of Brexit unfolding they ineffably doomed by SKS still had to make the right moves to capitalise on their mis-steps.
Remember, always, SKS is a lawyer.
His demolitions are less entertaining than a 900 words tossed off by a columnist, but they are much more likely to have the intended effect. The difference between blowing something up with a tonne of TNT and Fred Dibnah felling a chimney by pulling out the right bits at the bottom so it just collapses.
Impressive, once you accept that that's what you're looking at.
You are giving him far, far too much credit - Boris self destructed, with no help from Sir Keir, then Truss's budget caused huge panic and turned a mid term polling malaise into a complete cliff drop.
Starmer cheered on the lockdown which is responsible for the economy crashing and has taken either the wrong side (extending lockdown/trans issues), or both sides of every other argument. Labour aren't adding new votes anywhere, it's just that the Tories 2019 coalition of voters, that only Boris could conceivably hold together, has fractured.
98%.
Boris was flawed and was more to be seen as a hired gun in this case brought in to Get Brexit Done, which he did with great success. But hired guns aren't cut out to run the whole show. As we saw subsequently.
Boris needs great support, great team management, and to have competent people around him which would have allowed him to carry on being Boris. Instead, the hired gun got a bit carried away or rather, didn't think he needed a competent and robust team and thought he could wing running the show. And he couldn't.
That last bit is what I think you are missing. Boris was fantastic at that one specific task (Brexit) but that was it. He then thought, as did you, that he was good enough for broader management of party, government and country. He wasn't.
Boris wasn't fantastic at the specific task of Brexit. Boris was able to get Brexit done by lying about the problems, specifically how to accommodate Northern Ireland. Unless you mean he was fantastic at lying!
Of course he was fantastic about lying.
But he Got Brexit Done.
No one knew what it was to start with beyond contractually exiting the EU and he achieved that.
I mean I yield to no one in my disdain both for Brexit and Boris. But he cut through what had become a stalemate and Got Brexit Done, something we had voted for several years earlier. And no I still don't think a second vote would have been anti-democratic (a logistical and governance nightmare perhaps) but I digress.
TLDR: it was such a dishonest project that only a liar could deliver it.
Brexit was leaving the EU. We left the EU.
Except, arguably, for Northern Ireland, which hasn't, which is the bit that Boris lied about.
That is also true. I mean he lied throughout but he took the UK out of the EU and that is what the vote had been to decide. It was for me interesting to see how many supposed true patriots couldn't give a stuff about the Six Counties but there we are.
I hope No.10 were not expecting a warm endorsement from Ben Houchen.
🔥"To be frank, it doesn't matter to me who the Prime Minister is... even if there's a change of government later this year or Rishi is still Prime Minister or it's somebody else."
OUCH. ~AA
Yes Ben, but if it truly is the case that you are an independent, why do you take the Tory whip in the Lords and meekly go to London when commanded to play parliamentary ping-pong with the Rwanda bill?
Hartlepool by 7%, 19% swing to Lab Redcar and Cleveland by 13%, 18.5% swing to Lab Boro by 1%, 18% swing to Labour
Andy Street loses I think on that kind of swing - but tight???
Yes - as it was mere 54-46 last time. But no. As it’s a different, different candidates (ones being investigated by the police as ineligible) and different circumstances.
As polling put Street ahead the Tories are right to be quietly confident.
So that will be at least three Tory wins including North Yorkshire and York, though mood music has been giving East Midlands to Labour. So at least 3-1 to the Tories from these battlegrounds.
I think Labour will walk Notts/Derbyshire (I refuse to refer to it as East Midlands since it only covers 2 of the 6 counties)
"Northern East Midlands" if you like
Even 'Mayor of Nottinghamshire & Derbyshire' would be better...
Until 1568 Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire did not exist as separate counties but were combined under a single Sheriff.
"Until 1568, Nottinghamshire was united with Derbyshire under one sheriff, the courts and tourns being held at Nottingham until the reign of Henry III, when with the assizes for both counties they were removed to Derby"
@Steven_Swinford It looks increasingly like Rishi Sunak will survive
Tory rebels believed an alignment of three events was needed to get MPs over line for confidence vote:
1. Tories finishing third behind Reform in Blackpool South. In fact Tories scraped second with 117 votes. 2. Ben Houchen to lose Tees Valley despite getting 70%+ of vote in 2021. Labour is now conceding. 3. Andy Street to lose West Midlands. Labour sources suggesting he may have done enough to survive.
None of this is to underplay local election results - they are on course to be among the worst the Tories have ever seen
It just means the Tories are much less likely to move onto their fifth prime minister in the space of five years
Fantastic news for Starmer if true. Every additional day of the Sunak ministry just deepens the Tory slide towards ELE.
"Rob Mayor @robmayorLabour sources tell me they believe they have lost the West Midlands Mayoral election, with their campaign severely dented by the issue of Gaza. They think independent Akhmed Yakoob will come third in some areas.
Votes won't be counted till tomorrow.
Labour source: 'It's the Middle East, not West Midlands that will have won Street the Mayoralty. Once again Hamas are the real villains.'
"Rob Mayor @robmayorLabour sources tell me they believe they have lost the West Midlands Mayoral election, with their campaign severely dented by the issue of Gaza. They think independent Akhmed Yakoob will come third in some areas.
Votes won't be counted till tomorrow.
Labour source: 'It's the Middle East, not West Midlands that will have won Street the Mayoralty. Once again Hamas are the real villains.'
Moral: don't back genocide because there's a sizeable proportion of the electorate who'd rather wipe their arses on their ballot papers than support you if you do.
I'm not really buying the Street and Houchen running away from the Tory brand - all mayoral elections are about personal image particularly for incumbents. Look at Andy Burnham's manifesto on andy4mayor.co.uk and there's 2 mentions of Labour which are the small logo on front and back pages.
I’m not mentioning London Mayor anymore. You anti Hall Londoners are just far too tetchy and weird about it for a normal conversation about it right now.
Even if it’s the biggest story of this set of elections, to me it doesn’t even exist.
Hartlepool by 7%, 19% swing to Lab Redcar and Cleveland by 13%, 18.5% swing to Lab Boro by 1%, 18% swing to Labour
Andy Street loses I think on that kind of swing - but tight???
Yes - as it was mere 54-46 last time. But no. As it’s a different, different candidates (ones being investigated by the police as ineligible) and different circumstances.
As polling put Street ahead the Tories are right to be quietly confident.
So that will be at least three Tory wins including North Yorkshire and York, though mood music has been giving East Midlands to Labour. So at least 3-1 to the Tories from these battlegrounds.
I think Labour will walk Notts/Derbyshire (I refuse to refer to it as East Midlands since it only covers 2 of the 6 counties)
Yes, it's yet another bizarrely named mayoralty. Who comes up with these names? They need to rehire the person who came up with Greater Manchester and Greater London... and have him/her rebrand the rest accordingly.
Call it Middle Trent.
That rather neglects Derbyshire imo, and North Notts. It's a bit Geoff the complete Hoon, who used to commute into Ashfield from the Trent Valley flatzone.
"Trent and the Peaks" or "Trent and the Dukeries."
(TBF officially the Dukeries don't stretch to the Dukes' of Devonshire domain.)
The Trent forms the boundary of Nottinghamshire in the North.
I hope No.10 were not expecting a warm endorsement from Ben Houchen.
🔥"To be frank, it doesn't matter to me who the Prime Minister is... even if there's a change of government later this year or Rishi is still Prime Minister or it's somebody else."
OUCH. ~AA
Yes Ben, but if it truly is the case that you are an independent, why do you take the Tory whip in the Lords and meekly go to London when commanded to play parliamentary ping-pong with the Rwanda bill?
"If you can't ride two horses, you've no business in the bloody circus."
The rise of the sectarian vote in certain areas must be of real concern for a few people surely?
It’s never a great idea to kick sand in the face of a significant voting bloc. I don’t think these people have love for Galloway, but Starmer has shown them amply that he doesn’t care about their concerns. So they’ve protest voted en masse. As is their absolute right.
I don't see the wisdom of telling a section of the electorate to 'go away and don't let the door hit you on the way out' and then blame them for not voting for you when it comes to the election.
There’s no point Labour whining about the West Midlands .
Starmer should have been more careful and not jumped onto the Netenyahu love-in .
No. Starmer should have done what he believed was right, on an international issue, even if it damages him electorally. Good for him (unless he did it deliberately to appear Prime-ministerial, of course...)
"Rob Mayor @robmayorLabour sources tell me they believe they have lost the West Midlands Mayoral election, with their campaign severely dented by the issue of Gaza. They think independent Akhmed Yakoob will come third in some areas.
Votes won't be counted till tomorrow.
Labour source: 'It's the Middle East, not West Midlands that will have won Street the Mayoralty. Once again Hamas are the real villains.'
Will we be reading similar tweets about Biden in November?
There's a note of self-justification there. One Labour activist on Vote UK has pointed to a very big vote for Street in Conservative-leaning suburbs, and that won't be about Gaza.
Comments
Bitterne Park: Lab majority 89, Reform 160
Coxford: Lab majority 46, Reform 256
Peartree: Lab majority 163, Reform 305
A massive opportunity for Farage and Tice.
It's definitely a bit of a problem for Starmer, but more in the sense that it tests whether he will panic under pressure.
It would probably be done within 4-5 days of calling the confidence vote.
I won't be surprised if the general election is in June or early July so the Tories can capitalise maximally on what seems to be the looming aggro on university campuses.
This will be the Rwanda + Gaza election.
I strongly doubt Hall will win in London (CCHQ psy play) but 👍 to all voters, Muslim or otherwise, who might otherwise have voted Labour but who will never vote Labour while it's led by a man who said the Israelis had the right to turn off the water supply to Gaza.
If I say Labour are conceding West Midlands because of the Gaza Backlash, are you accusing me of Hall ramping?
This Gaza Backlash is a real thing, important to the General Election too if it costs Labour both West Midlands and London. Don’t blame the messengers.
I hope No.10 were not expecting a warm endorsement from Ben Houchen.
🔥"To be frank, it doesn't matter to me who the Prime Minister is... even if there's a change of government later this year or Rishi is still Prime Minister or it's somebody else."
OUCH. ~AA
11 Lab, 6 Con (2021 colours - there are 10 Inds now, I've not tallied if any Ind defending)
Results:
8 Ind, 5 Lab, 1 Con, 3 to declare
Lab started on 30/51, accounting for prior Ind defections.
It looks increasingly like Rishi Sunak will survive
Tory rebels believed an alignment of three events was needed to get MPs over line for confidence vote:
1. Tories finishing third behind Reform in Blackpool South. In fact Tories scraped second with 117 votes.
2. Ben Houchen to lose Tees Valley despite getting 70%+ of vote in 2021. Labour is now conceding.
3. Andy Street to lose West Midlands. Labour sources suggesting he may have done enough to survive.
None of this is to underplay local election results - they are on course to be among the worst the Tories have ever seen
It just means the Tories are much less likely to move onto their fifth prime minister in the space of five years
Which is starting to sound a bit more like some of the more obscure rugby divisions - "Midlands East North South 2", I think existed at one time.
In fact I’m calling it. Bristols neck and neck between Labour and Greens for plurality! After… 0 of 70 seats so far declared.
Hope Labour beat the greens. BigJohnsOwls the lot of em. 🤨
What is your prediction for the London result?
So she tried to go for a harder Brexit, explained honestly, which no-one liked.
The Brexit we got could only be delivered by a liar; the same liar who landed us with it in the first place. And so it was.
Labour in Southampton only got 40.3% of the total vote and still won 12 out of 17 wards.
"Trent and the Peaks" or "Trent and the Dukeries."
(TBF officially the Dukeries don't stretch to the Dukes' of Devonshire domain.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Nottinghamshire#/media/File:Doomsday_Book_-_Counties_of_England_-_1086.png
And especially when they make out they have gone native, party independent, just in it for their voters and the region they love since birth…
Personally I don’t buy it. It’s bullshit. They are still members of that party. Where so much politics is done behind the scenes, these people are actually bullshitting voters making out they’re independent.
Wonder if Tory MPs pull the same con trick on mass at the GE?
Pictured: Starmer, intensely relaxed about today's results.
(Since we're doing holiday snaps. Kyushu, Japan).
A senior party source said: "It’s the Middle East, not West Midlands, that will have won [Conservative candidate] Andy Street the mayoralty. Once again Hamas are the real villains."
A Conservative source told me that quote is "vile" and they insist the contest is "extremely close".
I find myself agreeing with the Conservative source. That quote *is* vile.
Con 28k
Lab 19k
https://www.theguardian.com/science/article/2024/may/02/orangutan-seen-treating-wound-with-medicinal-herb-in-first-for-wild-animals-max-planck-institute-sumatra
How did the ability to do this - meaning the ability of which this particular ability is one manifestation - evolve without language?
Doubtless Richard Loony Dawkins and Steven Bullshit Pinker could offer a knee-jerky materialist answer.
Makes you wonder what abilities humans possessed, and possibly still do possess in some sense despite the powerful and growing assaults on them by bean-counters digital.
Good times!!!!
I think a Labour hold as max 4 losses, but count that..... confirmed
@robmayorLabour sources tell me they believe they have lost the West Midlands Mayoral election, with their campaign severely dented by the issue of Gaza. They think independent Akhmed Yakoob will come third in some areas.
Votes won't be counted till tomorrow.
Labour source: 'It's the Middle East, not West Midlands that will have won Street the Mayoralty. Once again Hamas are the real villains.'
https://twitter.com/robmayor/status/1786339594432086299
"Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️⚧️
@LeftieStats
🚨 BREAKING: Multiple Labour sources now saying that they have lost the West Midlands Mayoral election.
The party has lost many voters to a Galloway-backed independent over the issue of Gaza, reportedly enabling Andy Street (CON) to win."
https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1786346748199215461
"Until 1568, Nottinghamshire was united with Derbyshire under one sheriff, the courts and tourns being held at Nottingham until the reign of Henry III, when with the assizes for both counties they were removed to Derby"
Starmer should have been more careful and not jumped onto the Netenyahu love-in .
Even if it’s the biggest story of this set of elections, to me it doesn’t even exist.
Happy? 😠
Alex Salmond has often talked about a hung Westminster parliament being hung by a Scottish rope.
Something about petards and hoist applies here.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/6282367/Alex-Salmond-Parliament-will-be-hung-by-a-Scottish-rope-after-election.html