Rumours emerging that Susan Hall has won London Mayoral on low turnout. We won’t know until Sat evening. Wonderful if true, but let’s be clear: not to do with Sunak who did next to nothing for her and she was given minimum CCHQ support. The Sunakites wanted Korski. Would be down to @Councillorsuzie - her tenacity, true Conservative principles and decency, if true. Don’t be fooled by Sunak’s claims."
Are those rumours from the same "inner circle" you posted about last night? We have Hall's "inner circle" and David Bannerman at the moment. Anything from an even marginally credible source?
Until they’ve opened and workers through the boxes, no one can possibly know
Verification began at 9am this morning, so someone can know. That someone isn't necessarily DCB.
If someone can know you'd expect Hall to be shorter than 15.5
Unless they know that all this ramping of Hall is bullshit, in which case you'd expect Hall to be, if anything, longer.
In fairness she has already slid out from 14 earlier this morning...
All you Londoners seem to care about is London. There’s other parts of the country too you know.
We know that perfectly well, as we've all got houses in Cornwall. Then there's the North and the other bit.
So you can see we are knowledgable about and very interested in the nation as a whole.
Apparently the Tories think only about 2 million voted in London and 6 million were registered so around 33% .
That’s about 7% down on 2021.
Low turnout could also be due to Tories sitting on their hands, which seems to me at least as likely as all the non-voters being otherwise Labour supporters.
Very true. Though London is a peculiar one, in that you have a very prominent figurehead and an 8 year incumbent for the opposition party who is very divisive. It feels to me like London voters might not be quite the disillusioned Tories sitting on their hands that we have seen in the rest of the country. I would be gobsmacked if she wins, but I do think the result will be far closer than the polls predict.
So why would the polls be wrong? A 22% lead in last one from yougov.
Polls can always be wrong. They are only predictors, at the end of the day. There can be a myriad of reasons for this. Bailey outperformed the polls in 2021, for instance.
Of course if Hall wins (which, as I note, I’d be gobsmacked if she did) this would be a polling upset up there with the very biggest of them.
Wait. Polls aren’t forecasts is my line. 😇
One reason obviously for a Khan loss is Labour vote is down 16 points on 2021 in areas with a Muslim population, according to BBC. Labour down 16 points on average is a whopping figure isn’t it? No one predicted Gaza Backlash to be quite that impactful?
Some PBers said Gaza Backlash wouldn’t happen in London because Khans position is different to Starmer’s, but maybe it’s not worked out like that, like vote Khan get Starmer’s policy?
So the Muslim population of London is going to help deliver Hall . I just don’t see it .
Frustrating morning as there’s a paucity of coverage of Lib Dem performance.
So far OK looking at the actual results, but not the massive outperformance we sometimes see. And not the same underperformance of Labour we’ve got used to.
Still, it looks like a thrashing but not a shellacking for the Tories. And the difference in their performance where Reform aren’t standing should encourage them they’ll get most of any swingback from Reform voters come the general.
Daisy Cooper interviewed on GMB
Lib Dem results being discussed on the politics slot as underwhelming. Of course Daisy Cooper talked them up.
So far according to BBC. Conservatives 117 councillors, LDs 114 councillors.
What would be a good result?
The MRP prediction had Lib Dems and Tories winning roughly similar numbers of wards (but Tories more actual councillors). So if they manage this it’ll be par.
But you need to surprise on the upside to get any coverage, and Lib Dems do so in locals more often than not. A score in line with polling would be disappointing.
Greens on the other hand are doing very well. Not good news for Labour.
Not good news for the LDs either. The Greens seem to be displacing them as the party of nice people protest.
Not surprising. The Tories are going backwards on the climate issue and Labour seem to be joining them. As for Reform, I don't think half their candidates understand what climate means, unless it's the air-con in their 4WDs.
Ed Davey possibly too vividly swashbuckling for the nice people?
Ed Davey has serious Post office problems. Very low profile since Mr Bates v PO came out.
I’ve wondered for a while if he’ll be replaced before the election. I think we’ll have to see how he gets on in the witness box at the PO inquiry.
"A senior Fujitsu engineer made a false statement to court about the flawed Post Office IT system, contradicting a report he had written days earlier.
"The BBC has obtained Gareth Jenkins' 2010 statement, which helped wrongly jail pregnant postmistress Seema Misra.
"It said there were "no cases" where branch accounts could be altered without postmasters' knowledge.
"But he had just produced a Post Office report which proposed remotely altering data in branches to fix a bug.
"Mr Jenkins, Fujitsu's former chief IT architect, is currently being investigated by the Metropolitan Police for potential perjury, the BBC understands."
Ooh, that might require the purchase of extra popcorn.
Would be rather amusing if he had to appear before the inquiry remotely, dressed in an oranage jumpsuit.
Rumours emerging that Susan Hall has won London Mayoral on low turnout. We won’t know until Sat evening. Wonderful if true, but let’s be clear: not to do with Sunak who did next to nothing for her and she was given minimum CCHQ support. The Sunakites wanted Korski. Would be down to @Councillorsuzie - her tenacity, true Conservative principles and decency, if true. Don’t be fooled by Sunak’s claims."
Are those rumours from the same "inner circle" you posted about last night? We have Hall's "inner circle" and David Bannerman at the moment. Anything from an even marginally credible source?
Until they’ve opened and workers through the boxes, no one can possibly know
Verification began at 9am this morning, so someone can know. That someone isn't necessarily DCB.
If someone can know you'd expect Hall to be shorter than 15.5
Unless they know that all this ramping of Hall is bullshit, in which case you'd expect Hall to be, if anything, longer.
In fairness she has already slid out from 14 earlier this morning...
And back in. Interestingly there is a small arb between the two markets: Winner vs Winning Party.
Yeah just spotted that.
Tbh you never quite know how long it will be until a given Tory loses the Whip these days, so that’s possibly a feature rather than a bug.
I think some tories mis-underestimate SKS. For the past two and half years he's been gradually feeding the tory party into a woodchipper. Now the tories have brought some of the well-deserved calamity on themselves and it's possible that with the slow-motion catastrophe of Brexit unfolding they ineffably doomed by SKS still had to make the right moves to capitalise on their mis-steps.
Remember, always, SKS is a lawyer.
His demolitions are less entertaining than a 900 words tossed off by a columnist, but they are much more likely to have the intended effect. The difference between blowing something up with a tonne of TNT and Fred Dibnah felling a chimney by pulling out the right bits at the bottom so it just collapses.
Impressive, once you accept that that's what you're looking at.
You are giving him far, far too much credit - Boris self destructed, with no help from Sir Keir, then Truss's budget caused huge panic and turned a mid term polling malaise into a complete cliff drop.
Starmer cheered on the lockdown which is responsible for the economy crashing and has taken either the wrong side (extending lockdown/trans issues), or both sides of every other argument. Labour aren't adding new votes anywhere, it's just that the Tories 2019 coalition of voters, that only Boris could conceivably hold together, has fractured.
Apparently the Tories think only about 2 million voted in London and 6 million were registered so around 33% .
That’s about 7% down on 2021.
Low turnout could also be due to Tories sitting on their hands, which seems to me at least as likely as all the non-voters being otherwise Labour supporters.
Very true. Though London is a peculiar one, in that you have a very prominent figurehead and an 8 year incumbent for the opposition party who is very divisive. It feels to me like London voters might not be quite the disillusioned Tories sitting on their hands that we have seen in the rest of the country. I would be gobsmacked if she wins, but I do think the result will be far closer than the polls predict.
So why would the polls be wrong? A 22% lead in last one from yougov.
Polls can always be wrong. They are only predictors, at the end of the day. There can be a myriad of reasons for this. Bailey outperformed the polls in 2021, for instance.
Of course if Hall wins (which, as I note, I’d be gobsmacked if she did) this would be a polling upset up there with the very biggest of them.
Wait. Polls aren’t forecasts is my line. 😇
One reason obviously for a Khan loss is Labour vote is down 16 points on 2021 in areas with a Muslim population, according to BBC. Labour down 16 points on average is a whopping figure isn’t it? No one predicted Gaza Backlash to be quite that impactful?
Some PBers said Gaza Backlash wouldn’t happen in London because Khans position is different to Starmer’s, but maybe it’s not worked out like that, like vote Khan get Starmer’s policy?
So the Muslim population of London is going to help deliver Hall . I just don’t see it .
Via stay at home and abstain, or most likely switch to Green.
Just stopped for coffee outside a 900 year old monastery in San Juan de Ortega
Rather frustratingly, this was my target yesterday afternoon, but a horrible day of bad weather, detours and a last minute booking being cancelled put paid to that. I did meet Manuel, which rather rescued evening
If I have time and energy later, I may give a more detailed account..
But now more Camino!
Lovely spot, though I think the priest that used to serve garlic soup there died some years ago.
That's the sort of stat we need for some decent coverage. Trouble is as we've seen from locals in recent years the narrative is set by what happens overnight. By the end of the counting process everyone's got bored. Which is one reason even if Khan loses it won't necessarily shift the negatively from the Conservatives.
Apparently the Tories think only about 2 million voted in London and 6 million were registered so around 33% .
That’s about 7% down on 2021.
Low turnout could also be due to Tories sitting on their hands, which seems to me at least as likely as all the non-voters being otherwise Labour supporters.
Very true. Though London is a peculiar one, in that you have a very prominent figurehead and an 8 year incumbent for the opposition party who is very divisive. It feels to me like London voters might not be quite the disillusioned Tories sitting on their hands that we have seen in the rest of the country. I would be gobsmacked if she wins, but I do think the result will be far closer than the polls predict.
So why would the polls be wrong? A 22% lead in last one from yougov.
Polls can always be wrong. They are only predictors, at the end of the day. There can be a myriad of reasons for this. Bailey outperformed the polls in 2021, for instance.
Of course if Hall wins (which, as I note, I’d be gobsmacked if she did) this would be a polling upset up there with the very biggest of them.
Wait. Polls aren’t forecasts is my line. 😇
One reason obviously for a Khan loss is Labour vote is down 16 points on 2021 in areas with a Muslim population, according to BBC. Labour down 16 points on average is a whopping figure isn’t it? No one predicted Gaza Backlash to be quite that impactful?
Some PBers said Gaza Backlash wouldn’t happen in London because Khans position is different to Starmer’s, but maybe it’s not worked out like that, like vote Khan get Starmer’s policy?
So the Muslim population of London is going to help deliver Hall . I just don’t see it .
She won’t give you a clear prediction, so she can claim she was right whatever happens.
Rumours emerging that Susan Hall has won London Mayoral on low turnout. We won’t know until Sat evening. Wonderful if true, but let’s be clear: not to do with Sunak who did next to nothing for her and she was given minimum CCHQ support. The Sunakites wanted Korski. Would be down to @Councillorsuzie - her tenacity, true Conservative principles and decency, if true. Don’t be fooled by Sunak’s claims."
Are those rumours from the same "inner circle" you posted about last night? We have Hall's "inner circle" and David Bannerman at the moment. Anything from an even marginally credible source?
Until they’ve opened and workers through the boxes, no one can possibly know
Verification began at 9am this morning, so someone can know. That someone isn't necessarily DCB.
If someone can know you'd expect Hall to be shorter than 15.5
Unless they know that all this ramping of Hall is bullshit, in which case you'd expect Hall to be, if anything, longer.
In fairness she has already slid out from 14 earlier this morning...
All you Londoners seem to care about is London. There’s other parts of the country too you know.
We know that perfectly well, as we've all got houses in Cornwall. Then there's the North and the other bit.
So you can see we are knowledgable about and very interested in the nation as a whole.
Apparently the Tories think only about 2 million voted in London and 6 million were registered so around 33% .
That’s about 7% down on 2021.
Low turnout could also be due to Tories sitting on their hands, which seems to me at least as likely as all the non-voters being otherwise Labour supporters.
Very true. Though London is a peculiar one, in that you have a very prominent figurehead and an 8 year incumbent for the opposition party who is very divisive. It feels to me like London voters might not be quite the disillusioned Tories sitting on their hands that we have seen in the rest of the country. I would be gobsmacked if she wins, but I do think the result will be far closer than the polls predict.
So why would the polls be wrong? A 22% lead in last one from yougov.
Polls can always be wrong. They are only predictors, at the end of the day. There can be a myriad of reasons for this. Bailey outperformed the polls in 2021, for instance.
Of course if Hall wins (which, as I note, I’d be gobsmacked if she did) this would be a polling upset up there with the very biggest of them.
Wait. Polls aren’t forecasts is my line. 😇
One reason obviously for a Khan loss is Labour vote is down 16 points on 2021 in areas with a Muslim population, according to BBC. Labour down 16 points on average is a whopping figure isn’t it? No one predicted Gaza Backlash to be quite that impactful?
Some PBers said Gaza Backlash wouldn’t happen in London because Khans position is different to Starmer’s, but maybe it’s not worked out like that, like vote Khan get Starmer’s policy?
I think some tories mis-underestimate SKS. For the past two and half years he's been gradually feeding the tory party into a woodchipper. Now the tories have brought some of the well-deserved calamity on themselves and it's possible that with the slow-motion catastrophe of Brexit unfolding they ineffably doomed by SKS still had to make the right moves to capitalise on their mis-steps.
Remember, always, SKS is a lawyer.
His demolitions are less entertaining than a 900 words tossed off by a columnist, but they are much more likely to have the intended effect. The difference between blowing something up with a tonne of TNT and Fred Dibnah felling a chimney by pulling out the right bits at the bottom so it just collapses.
Impressive, once you accept that that's what you're looking at.
You are giving him far, far too much credit - Boris self destructed, with no help from Sir Keir, then Truss's budget caused huge panic and turned a mid term polling malaise into a complete cliff drop.
Starmer cheered on the lockdown which is responsible for the economy crashing and has taken either the wrong side (extending lockdown/trans issues), or both sides of every other argument. Labour aren't adding new votes anywhere, it's just that the Tories 2019 coalition of voters, that only Boris could conceivably hold together, has fractured.
He ruthlessly destroyed the Corbynites. And that's the main reason he's able to profit from Tory problems.
That's the sort of stat we need for some decent coverage. Trouble is as we've seen from locals in recent years the narrative is set by what happens overnight. By the end of the counting process everyone's got bored. Which is one reason even if Khan loses it won't necessarily shift the negatively from the Conservatives.
And the LDs are now ahead with 120!
It probably won’t stay that way, once the Home Counties get going, but one can hope…
Interestingly - apparently the Hartlepool MP has messaged colleagues saying she’s heard that Ben Houchen has won the Hartlepool part of his patch- but by 2,000 votes. Haven’t got actual results yet- but if that’s right that would be hugely reduced majority
Baseline for North Yorkshire Mayoral Election (combined local votes for North Yorkshire 2022 and York 2023)
Con 78210 (34.5%) Lab 51492 (22.7%) LD 44374 (19.6%) Ind/Other 29060 (12.8%) - dominated by Ind Green 23472 (10.4%)
So, Labour need a 5.9% swing on the 2022/23 positions to prevail, with some squeeze on other parties possible, but I don't imagine it will be by-election scale squeeze.
The candidate list includes the parties above, including a couple of Independents.
I think I'd have been marginally more inclined to take Con at 2/1 than Lab at 4/9, but neither bet would have really drawn me in.
On that, the LDs should have been interested, but we heard nothing from them down here, other than the candidate page in general election booklet sent out with all candidates and info. Some direct mail from the Con; many leaflets and at least one canvasser from Lab.
The Lab canvasser (who I actually knew a bit) reckoned they were in with a shout, but could go either way. Parts of the north of the area would seem to look historically more fertile for Lab than LD. Plausible that STV and FPTP would give different results here.
Just stopped for coffee outside a 900 year old monastery in San Juan de Ortega
Rather frustratingly, this was my target yesterday afternoon, but a horrible day of bad weather, detours and a last minute booking being cancelled put paid to that. I did meet Manuel, which rather rescued evening
If I have time and energy later, I may give a more detailed account..
But now more Camino!
Your photos are very calming and relaxing. Thanks for posting them.
I think some tories mis-underestimate SKS. For the past two and half years he's been gradually feeding the tory party into a woodchipper. Now the tories have brought some of the well-deserved calamity on themselves and it's possible that with the slow-motion catastrophe of Brexit unfolding they ineffably doomed by SKS still had to make the right moves to capitalise on their mis-steps.
Remember, always, SKS is a lawyer.
His demolitions are less entertaining than a 900 words tossed off by a columnist, but they are much more likely to have the intended effect. The difference between blowing something up with a tonne of TNT and Fred Dibnah felling a chimney by pulling out the right bits at the bottom so it just collapses.
Impressive, once you accept that that's what you're looking at.
You are giving him far, far too much credit - Boris self destructed, with no help from Sir Keir, then Truss's budget caused huge panic and turned a mid term polling malaise into a complete cliff drop.
Starmer cheered on the lockdown which is responsible for the economy crashing and has taken either the wrong side (extending lockdown/trans issues), or both sides of every other argument. Labour aren't adding new votes anywhere, it's just that the Tories 2019 coalition of voters, that only Boris could conceivably hold together, has fractured.
He ruthlessly destroyed the Corbynites. And that's the main reason he's able to profit from Tory problems.
Well he stood for the leadership on Corbynite pledges, then ditched them all and suspended the Corbynite MPs!... "ruthlessly destroyed" or "completely lied to" I suppose it depends which side you cheer for
I think some tories mis-underestimate SKS. For the past two and half years he's been gradually feeding the tory party into a woodchipper. Now the tories have brought some of the well-deserved calamity on themselves and it's possible that with the slow-motion catastrophe of Brexit unfolding they ineffably doomed by SKS still had to make the right moves to capitalise on their mis-steps.
Remember, always, SKS is a lawyer.
His demolitions are less entertaining than a 900 words tossed off by a columnist, but they are much more likely to have the intended effect. The difference between blowing something up with a tonne of TNT and Fred Dibnah felling a chimney by pulling out the right bits at the bottom so it just collapses.
Impressive, once you accept that that's what you're looking at.
You are giving him far, far too much credit - Boris self destructed, with no help from Sir Keir, then Truss's budget caused huge panic and turned a mid term polling malaise into a complete cliff drop.
Starmer cheered on the lockdown which is responsible for the economy crashing and has taken either the wrong side (extending lockdown/trans issues), or both sides of every other argument. Labour aren't adding new votes anywhere, it's just that the Tories 2019 coalition of voters, that only Boris could conceivably hold together, has fractured.
98%.
Boris was flawed and was more to be seen as a hired gun in this case brought in to Get Brexit Done, which he did with great success. But hired guns aren't cut out to run the whole show. As we saw subsequently.
Boris needs great support, great team management, and to have competent people around him which would have allowed him to carry on being Boris. Instead, the hired gun got a bit carried away or rather, didn't think he needed a competent and robust team and thought he could wing running the show. And he couldn't.
That last bit is what I think you are missing. Boris was fantastic at that one specific task (Brexit) but that was it. He then thought, as did you, that he was good enough for broader management of party, government and country. He wasn't.
Thought Brillo might have dialled it down after his bullshit (now deleted) tweet about Humza's pension, but no.. He's one of those folk who after being pwnd can't let it lie (a strange concept to PB I accept).
That's the sort of stat we need for some decent coverage. Trouble is as we've seen from locals in recent years the narrative is set by what happens overnight. By the end of the counting process everyone's got bored. Which is one reason even if Khan loses it won't necessarily shift the negatively from the Conservatives.
Nah, if Khan loses that will be seismic news. Rishi would probably be at the palace within the week.
Just stopped for coffee outside a 900 year old monastery in San Juan de Ortega
Rather frustratingly, this was my target yesterday afternoon, but a horrible day of bad weather, detours and a last minute booking being cancelled put paid to that. I did meet Manuel, which rather rescued evening
If I have time and energy later, I may give a more detailed account..
But now more Camino!
Your photos are very calming and relaxing. Thanks for posting them.
Where's the cast for the Good, the Bad and the Ugly?
That's the sort of stat we need for some decent coverage. Trouble is as we've seen from locals in recent years the narrative is set by what happens overnight. By the end of the counting process everyone's got bored. Which is one reason even if Khan loses it won't necessarily shift the negatively from the Conservatives.
And the LDs are now ahead with 120!
It probably won’t stay that way, once the Home Counties get going, but one can hope…
Are you sure ?
Wiki (If it's right, big if I know) shows the starting totals as Con 989 and LD 418
500 Con losses takes the Cons to 489 which means the Lib Dems need 71 gains to overtake the Tories. Dorset council is all up, as is Wokingham where I'd have thought there'd be decent Lib Dem gains with dribs and drabs from other places. It certainly looks possible to me.
NEW: Labour have conceded defeat in the Tees Valley mayoral contest.
Labour source says it’s a win for Ben Houchen, not the Conservative Party and say: Labour is on track to achieve the 12.5% swing in the region it needs to win back seats here.
"A senior Fujitsu engineer made a false statement to court about the flawed Post Office IT system, contradicting a report he had written days earlier.
"The BBC has obtained Gareth Jenkins' 2010 statement, which helped wrongly jail pregnant postmistress Seema Misra.
"It said there were "no cases" where branch accounts could be altered without postmasters' knowledge.
"But he had just produced a Post Office report which proposed remotely altering data in branches to fix a bug.
"Mr Jenkins, Fujitsu's former chief IT architect, is currently being investigated by the Metropolitan Police for potential perjury, the BBC understands."
Having an IT development and support career I'd say that an underlying issue there is an organisation where the lines were allowed to be blurred between maintenance access and business access.
Using maintenance setups, which do not focus on organisational / data audit trails, to KLUDGE the content of live systems is a slippery slope from the first time it is done.
It's in the same category as development-by-patch.
Err, yep!
You’d only ever do that with the permission of *everyone* involved, very much including the person in charge of the business unit, and a significant audit trail that documented the bug.
Thought Brillo might have dialled it down after his bullshit (now deleted) tweet about Humza's pension, but no.. He's one of those folk who after being pwnd can't let it lie (a strange concept to PB I accept).
NEW: Labour have conceded defeat in the Tees Valley mayoral contest.
Labour source says it’s a win for Ben Houchen, not the Conservative Party and say: Labour is on track to achieve the 12.5% swing in the region it needs to win back seats here.
It’ll be more enjoyable if he’s convicted in office.
I can now cash out on Hall and double my stake. Will let it ride. If she wins I'll need to drown my sorrows with a good dinner.
The market seems to be getting v thin now... maybe potential Khan backers are getting nervous... the only decent money is to back Khan at 1.15 (2/13)
My zone 6 facebook contacts (I wouldnt call them friends) were all posting "Khan Out"; there is a very motivated group of what I would class as unthinking Leave type, borderline BNP voters that wanted rid of him, but I never thought for a minute there would be enough to actually see him lose. I still dont to be honest, but he is drifting... 1.11-1.12 now
Thought Brillo might have dialled it down after his bullshit (now deleted) tweet about Humza's pension, but no.. He's one of those folk who after being pwnd can't let it lie (a strange concept to PB I accept).
I think some tories mis-underestimate SKS. For the past two and half years he's been gradually feeding the tory party into a woodchipper. Now the tories have brought some of the well-deserved calamity on themselves and it's possible that with the slow-motion catastrophe of Brexit unfolding they ineffably doomed by SKS still had to make the right moves to capitalise on their mis-steps.
Remember, always, SKS is a lawyer.
His demolitions are less entertaining than a 900 words tossed off by a columnist, but they are much more likely to have the intended effect. The difference between blowing something up with a tonne of TNT and Fred Dibnah felling a chimney by pulling out the right bits at the bottom so it just collapses.
Impressive, once you accept that that's what you're looking at.
You are giving him far, far too much credit - Boris self destructed, with no help from Sir Keir, then Truss's budget caused huge panic and turned a mid term polling malaise into a complete cliff drop.
Starmer cheered on the lockdown which is responsible for the economy crashing and has taken either the wrong side (extending lockdown/trans issues), or both sides of every other argument. Labour aren't adding new votes anywhere, it's just that the Tories 2019 coalition of voters, that only Boris could conceivably hold together, has fractured.
98%.
Boris was flawed and was more to be seen as a hired gun in this case brought in to Get Brexit Done, which he did with great success. But hired guns aren't cut out to run the whole show. As we saw subsequently.
Boris needs great support, great team management, and to have competent people around him which would have allowed him to carry on being Boris. Instead, the hired gun got a bit carried away or rather, didn't think he needed a competent and robust team and thought he could wing running the show. And he couldn't.
That last bit is what I think you are missing. Boris was fantastic at that one specific task (Brexit) but that was it. He then thought, as did you, that he was good enough for broader management of party, government and country. He wasn't.
Boris wasn't fantastic at the specific task of Brexit. Boris was able to get Brexit done by lying about the problems, specifically how to accommodate Northern Ireland. Unless you mean he was fantastic at lying!
Trying to think myself into a backbench Tory MP's mindset - does Ben Houchen's probable win not suggest that's nothing fundamentally wrong with the Conservative brand and a more capable politician could salvage a decent result in the general election?
That's the sort of stat we need for some decent coverage. Trouble is as we've seen from locals in recent years the narrative is set by what happens overnight. By the end of the counting process everyone's got bored. Which is one reason even if Khan loses it won't necessarily shift the negatively from the Conservatives.
And the LDs are now ahead with 120!
It probably won’t stay that way, once the Home Counties get going, but one can hope…
Are you sure ?
Wiki (If it's right, big if I know) shows the starting totals as Con 989 and LD 418
500 Con losses takes the Cons to 489 which means the Lib Dems need 71 gains to overtake the Tories. Dorset council is all up, as is Wokingham where I'd have thought there'd be decent Lib Dem gains with dribs and drabs from other places. It certainly looks possible to me.
Let’s hope so. The LDs are three ahead of the Tories, now.
Trying to think myself into a backbench Tory MP's mindset - does Ben Houchen's probable win not suggest that's nothing fundamentally wrong with the Conservative brand and a more capable politician could salvage a decent result in the general election?
@michaelsavage Just looking at the Hartlepool result for the Tees Valley mayor, you can see the big change from four years ago. Probably enough to see off a leadership challenge, but pretty big swing.
Trying to think myself into a backbench Tory MP's mindset - does Ben Houchen's probable win not suggest that's nothing fundamentally wrong with the Conservative brand and a more capable politician could salvage a decent result in the general election?
Trying to think myself into a backbench Tory MP's mindset - does Ben Houchen's probable win not suggest that's nothing fundamentally wrong with the Conservative brand and a more capable politician could salvage a decent result in the general election?
Houchen isn't using the Conservative brand. He has run as an independent and declared that he is not whipped or directed by the Conservative Party.
The Tories aren’t rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. They threw the best deckchair overboard. And replaced it with an exploding bean bag. Then they threw the beanbag into the sea, and got a small wobbly stool which they using to hit the officer in charge of lifeboats.
I thought we weren't supposed to be sizeist over Richie. Small wobbly stool indeed.
What kind of stool did you have in mind?
'Wobbly' doesn't appear in the Bristol stool chart, mind.
Apparently the Tories think only about 2 million voted in London and 6 million were registered so around 33% .
That’s about 7% down on 2021.
Low turnout could also be due to Tories sitting on their hands, which seems to me at least as likely as all the non-voters being otherwise Labour supporters.
Very true. Though London is a peculiar one, in that you have a very prominent figurehead and an 8 year incumbent for the opposition party who is very divisive. It feels to me like London voters might not be quite the disillusioned Tories sitting on their hands that we have seen in the rest of the country. I would be gobsmacked if she wins, but I do think the result will be far closer than the polls predict.
So why would the polls be wrong? A 22% lead in last one from yougov.
Polls can always be wrong. They are only predictors, at the end of the day. There can be a myriad of reasons for this. Bailey outperformed the polls in 2021, for instance.
Of course if Hall wins (which, as I note, I’d be gobsmacked if she did) this would be a polling upset up there with the very biggest of them.
Wait. Polls aren’t forecasts is my line. 😇
One reason obviously for a Khan loss is Labour vote is down 16 points on 2021 in areas with a Muslim population, according to BBC. Labour down 16 points on average is a whopping figure isn’t it? No one predicted Gaza Backlash to be quite that impactful?
Some PBers said Gaza Backlash wouldn’t happen in London because Khans position is different to Starmer’s, but maybe it’s not worked out like that, like vote Khan get Starmer’s policy?
London has a very large Muslim population to be sure. It's 15% of the total. 16% of 15% is 2.4%. So what you're implying, crudely, is that Gaza led to 2.4% of Londoners abstaining. That's not really a whopping figure.
Contrast all that with the final YouGov this time round. It would be an absolute catastrophe for them and everyone else involved if Khan lost.
While a Hall win is certainly possible I see very little polling evidence, and that evidence is the best we have, pointing to anything other than a Khan win. The rest is partisan Tweets and anecdata.
Birmingham Labour source calling West Midlands mayoralty for Andy Street. “We have beaten him as a general rule, but the Muslim vote has collapsed to the Galloway-backed independent.”
Apparently the Tories think only about 2 million voted in London and 6 million were registered so around 33% .
That’s about 7% down on 2021.
Low turnout could also be due to Tories sitting on their hands, which seems to me at least as likely as all the non-voters being otherwise Labour supporters.
Very true. Though London is a peculiar one, in that you have a very prominent figurehead and an 8 year incumbent for the opposition party who is very divisive. It feels to me like London voters might not be quite the disillusioned Tories sitting on their hands that we have seen in the rest of the country. I would be gobsmacked if she wins, but I do think the result will be far closer than the polls predict.
So why would the polls be wrong? A 22% lead in last one from yougov.
Polls can always be wrong. They are only predictors, at the end of the day. There can be a myriad of reasons for this. Bailey outperformed the polls in 2021, for instance.
Of course if Hall wins (which, as I note, I’d be gobsmacked if she did) this would be a polling upset up there with the very biggest of them.
Wait. Polls aren’t forecasts is my line. 😇
One reason obviously for a Khan loss is Labour vote is down 16 points on 2021 in areas with a Muslim population, according to BBC. Labour down 16 points on average is a whopping figure isn’t it? No one predicted Gaza Backlash to be quite that impactful?
Some PBers said Gaza Backlash wouldn’t happen in London because Khans position is different to Starmer’s, but maybe it’s not worked out like that, like vote Khan get Starmer’s policy?
London has a very large Muslim population to be sure. It's 15% of the total. 16% of 15% is 2.4%. So what you're implying, crudely, is that Gaza led to 2.4% of Londoners abstaining. That's not really a whopping figure.
Contrast all that with the final YouGov this time round. It would be an absolute catastrophe for them and everyone else involved if Khan lost.
While a Hall win is certainly possible I see very little polling evidence, and that evidence is the best we have, pointing to anything other than a Khan win. The rest is partisan Tweets and anecdata.
Conservatives will probably win the London mayoralty when Starmer is in power is my thinking.
I think some tories mis-underestimate SKS. For the past two and half years he's been gradually feeding the tory party into a woodchipper. Now the tories have brought some of the well-deserved calamity on themselves and it's possible that with the slow-motion catastrophe of Brexit unfolding they ineffably doomed by SKS still had to make the right moves to capitalise on their mis-steps.
Remember, always, SKS is a lawyer.
His demolitions are less entertaining than a 900 words tossed off by a columnist, but they are much more likely to have the intended effect. The difference between blowing something up with a tonne of TNT and Fred Dibnah felling a chimney by pulling out the right bits at the bottom so it just collapses.
Impressive, once you accept that that's what you're looking at.
You are giving him far, far too much credit - Boris self destructed, with no help from Sir Keir, then Truss's budget caused huge panic and turned a mid term polling malaise into a complete cliff drop.
Starmer cheered on the lockdown which is responsible for the economy crashing and has taken either the wrong side (extending lockdown/trans issues), or both sides of every other argument. Labour aren't adding new votes anywhere, it's just that the Tories 2019 coalition of voters, that only Boris could conceivably hold together, has fractured.
He ruthlessly destroyed the Corbynites. And that's the main reason he's able to profit from Tory problems.
Well he stood for the leadership on Corbynite pledges, then ditched them all and suspended the Corbynite MPs!... "ruthlessly destroyed" or "completely lied to" I suppose it depends which side you cheer for
The Corbynites all voted for Rebecca Long-Bailey not Keir Starmer. She still sits as a Labour MP and has not been suspended. You're being as selective with the truth as Starmer!
I think some tories mis-underestimate SKS. For the past two and half years he's been gradually feeding the tory party into a woodchipper. Now the tories have brought some of the well-deserved calamity on themselves and it's possible that with the slow-motion catastrophe of Brexit unfolding they ineffably doomed by SKS still had to make the right moves to capitalise on their mis-steps.
Remember, always, SKS is a lawyer.
His demolitions are less entertaining than a 900 words tossed off by a columnist, but they are much more likely to have the intended effect. The difference between blowing something up with a tonne of TNT and Fred Dibnah felling a chimney by pulling out the right bits at the bottom so it just collapses.
Impressive, once you accept that that's what you're looking at.
You are giving him far, far too much credit - Boris self destructed, with no help from Sir Keir, then Truss's budget caused huge panic and turned a mid term polling malaise into a complete cliff drop.
Starmer cheered on the lockdown which is responsible for the economy crashing and has taken either the wrong side (extending lockdown/trans issues), or both sides of every other argument. Labour aren't adding new votes anywhere, it's just that the Tories 2019 coalition of voters, that only Boris could conceivably hold together, has fractured.
98%.
Boris was flawed and was more to be seen as a hired gun in this case brought in to Get Brexit Done, which he did with great success. But hired guns aren't cut out to run the whole show. As we saw subsequently.
Boris needs great support, great team management, and to have competent people around him which would have allowed him to carry on being Boris. Instead, the hired gun got a bit carried away or rather, didn't think he needed a competent and robust team and thought he could wing running the show. And he couldn't.
That last bit is what I think you are missing. Boris was fantastic at that one specific task (Brexit) but that was it. He then thought, as did you, that he was good enough for broader management of party, government and country. He wasn't.
Boris wasn't fantastic at the specific task of Brexit. Boris was able to get Brexit done by lying about the problems, specifically how to accommodate Northern Ireland. Unless you mean he was fantastic at lying!
Of course he was fantastic about lying.
But he Got Brexit Done.
No one knew what it was to start with beyond contractually exiting the EU and he achieved that.
I mean I yield to no one in my disdain both for Brexit and Boris. But he cut through what had become a stalemate and Got Brexit Done, something we had voted for several years earlier. And no I still don't think a second vote would have been anti-democratic (a logistical and governance nightmare perhaps) but I digress.
Trying to think myself into a backbench Tory MP's mindset - does Ben Houchen's probable win not suggest that's nothing fundamentally wrong with the Conservative brand and a more capable politician could salvage a decent result in the general election?
Tees Valley is not the country. A candidate winning a local contest anywhere is never proof that there's nothing wrong with the brand.
It's also the case that Houchen (and Street) kind of minimised the Conservative brand in his campaign!
So, it would be a mistake for the Tories to think Houchen winning means they've nothing to worry about when it comes to the general election. But, yes, there are lessons to be learnt from Houchen's success. I don't think "change leader again" is one of them.
The LibDems have taken the ward where Jeremy Clarkson lives (previously Conservative)
Knowing the Lib Dems' luck with media coverage the headline will probably be "Local Elections: Lib Dems win diddly squat".
Clarkson’s farm show is back on TV this weekend, probably with added show of just how disfunctional the local council is, and how they can just decide they don’t like someone in quite a malignant manner.
Birmingham Labour source calling West Midlands mayoralty for Andy Street. “We have beaten him as a general rule, but the Muslim vote has collapsed to the Galloway-backed independent.”
I do wonder, after Oldham, if Kirklees may follow into Lab losing to NOC. I've no idea how strong the Independent protest candidates will be, but there are a number and the Lab majority is as thin as can be.
Hartlepool by 7%, 19% swing to Lab Redcar and Cleveland by 13%, 18.5% swing to Lab Boro by 1%, 18% swing to Labour
Andy Street loses I think on that kind of swing - but tight???
Labour seem to be conceding the West Midlands mayoralty.
If Galloway's mob are polling well among Muslims, it could also help the Conservative PCC in Bedfordshire, where a Workers' Party candidate is running, and where Luton is about 25% Muslim.
Apparently the Tories think only about 2 million voted in London and 6 million were registered so around 33% .
That’s about 7% down on 2021.
Low turnout could also be due to Tories sitting on their hands, which seems to me at least as likely as all the non-voters being otherwise Labour supporters.
Very true. Though London is a peculiar one, in that you have a very prominent figurehead and an 8 year incumbent for the opposition party who is very divisive. It feels to me like London voters might not be quite the disillusioned Tories sitting on their hands that we have seen in the rest of the country. I would be gobsmacked if she wins, but I do think the result will be far closer than the polls predict.
So why would the polls be wrong? A 22% lead in last one from yougov.
Polls can always be wrong. They are only predictors, at the end of the day. There can be a myriad of reasons for this. Bailey outperformed the polls in 2021, for instance.
Of course if Hall wins (which, as I note, I’d be gobsmacked if she did) this would be a polling upset up there with the very biggest of them.
Wait. Polls aren’t forecasts is my line. 😇
One reason obviously for a Khan loss is Labour vote is down 16 points on 2021 in areas with a Muslim population, according to BBC. Labour down 16 points on average is a whopping figure isn’t it? No one predicted Gaza Backlash to be quite that impactful?
Some PBers said Gaza Backlash wouldn’t happen in London because Khans position is different to Starmer’s, but maybe it’s not worked out like that, like vote Khan get Starmer’s policy?
London has a very large Muslim population to be sure. It's 15% of the total. 16% of 15% is 2.4%. So what you're implying, crudely, is that Gaza led to 2.4% of Londoners abstaining. That's not really a whopping figure.
Contrast all that with the final YouGov this time round. It would be an absolute catastrophe for them and everyone else involved if Khan lost.
While a Hall win is certainly possible I see very little polling evidence, and that evidence is the best we have, pointing to anything other than a Khan win. The rest is partisan Tweets and anecdata.
Political punters are most likely following PB and @MoonRabbit has been ramping for Hall with every fifth post since 10pm last night.
Hartlepool by 7%, 19% swing to Lab Redcar and Cleveland by 13%, 18.5% swing to Lab Boro by 1%, 18% swing to Labour
So, that Tory victory in full: Houchen wins by disowning the party Swing means every Tory MP in NE England will lose Houchen then gets done over by the NAO and presumably then the police Labour comfortably win the Mayoral by-election
Trying to think myself into a backbench Tory MP's mindset - does Ben Houchen's probable win not suggest that's nothing fundamentally wrong with the Conservative brand and a more capable politician could salvage a decent result in the general election?
Remember that Labour haven’t campaigned in Tees Valley beyond a token effort.
From what I hear (and said before) the mess at Teesworks is so great that Labour would prefer Ben’s and the Tory party’s name is the only 1 attached to it when the Audit Office start looking
A superb flowchart outlining what happens next from my excellent @PortlandComms colleagues including @Tom_Rayner. Includes the 11 possible Thursdays on which an election could be held between now and January.
It's a mistake to assume that if a new Tory leader is elected by MPs, they will be crowned "within weeks". It would be done within 4-5 days of the calling of the confidence vote.
Apparently the Tories think only about 2 million voted in London and 6 million were registered so around 33% .
That’s about 7% down on 2021.
Low turnout could also be due to Tories sitting on their hands, which seems to me at least as likely as all the non-voters being otherwise Labour supporters.
Very true. Though London is a peculiar one, in that you have a very prominent figurehead and an 8 year incumbent for the opposition party who is very divisive. It feels to me like London voters might not be quite the disillusioned Tories sitting on their hands that we have seen in the rest of the country. I would be gobsmacked if she wins, but I do think the result will be far closer than the polls predict.
So why would the polls be wrong? A 22% lead in last one from yougov.
Polls can always be wrong. They are only predictors, at the end of the day. There can be a myriad of reasons for this. Bailey outperformed the polls in 2021, for instance.
Of course if Hall wins (which, as I note, I’d be gobsmacked if she did) this would be a polling upset up there with the very biggest of them.
Wait. Polls aren’t forecasts is my line. 😇
One reason obviously for a Khan loss is Labour vote is down 16 points on 2021 in areas with a Muslim population, according to BBC. Labour down 16 points on average is a whopping figure isn’t it? No one predicted Gaza Backlash to be quite that impactful?
Some PBers said Gaza Backlash wouldn’t happen in London because Khans position is different to Starmer’s, but maybe it’s not worked out like that, like vote Khan get Starmer’s policy?
London has a very large Muslim population to be sure. It's 15% of the total. 16% of 15% is 2.4%. So what you're implying, crudely, is that Gaza led to 2.4% of Londoners abstaining. That's not really a whopping figure.
Contrast all that with the final YouGov this time round. It would be an absolute catastrophe for them and everyone else involved if Khan lost.
While a Hall win is certainly possible I see very little polling evidence, and that evidence is the best we have, pointing to anything other than a Khan win. The rest is partisan Tweets and anecdata.
Political punters are most likely following PB and @MoonRabbit has been ramping for Hall with every fifth post since 10pm last night.
Of course she could be correct.
I am 100% confident Khan has won.
(No-one mention how wrong I was with my last political bet on the Rochdale by-election.)
I think some tories mis-underestimate SKS. For the past two and half years he's been gradually feeding the tory party into a woodchipper. Now the tories have brought some of the well-deserved calamity on themselves and it's possible that with the slow-motion catastrophe of Brexit unfolding they ineffably doomed by SKS still had to make the right moves to capitalise on their mis-steps.
Remember, always, SKS is a lawyer.
His demolitions are less entertaining than a 900 words tossed off by a columnist, but they are much more likely to have the intended effect. The difference between blowing something up with a tonne of TNT and Fred Dibnah felling a chimney by pulling out the right bits at the bottom so it just collapses.
Impressive, once you accept that that's what you're looking at.
You are giving him far, far too much credit - Boris self destructed, with no help from Sir Keir, then Truss's budget caused huge panic and turned a mid term polling malaise into a complete cliff drop.
Starmer cheered on the lockdown which is responsible for the economy crashing and has taken either the wrong side (extending lockdown/trans issues), or both sides of every other argument. Labour aren't adding new votes anywhere, it's just that the Tories 2019 coalition of voters, that only Boris could conceivably hold together, has fractured.
98%.
Boris was flawed and was more to be seen as a hired gun in this case brought in to Get Brexit Done, which he did with great success. But hired guns aren't cut out to run the whole show. As we saw subsequently.
Boris needs great support, great team management, and to have competent people around him which would have allowed him to carry on being Boris. Instead, the hired gun got a bit carried away or rather, didn't think he needed a competent and robust team and thought he could wing running the show. And he couldn't.
That last bit is what I think you are missing. Boris was fantastic at that one specific task (Brexit) but that was it. He then thought, as did you, that he was good enough for broader management of party, government and country. He wasn't.
Boris wasn't fantastic at the specific task of Brexit. Boris was able to get Brexit done by lying about the problems, specifically how to accommodate Northern Ireland. Unless you mean he was fantastic at lying!
Of course he was fantastic about lying.
But he Got Brexit Done.
No one knew what it was to start with beyond contractually exiting the EU and he achieved that.
I mean I yield to no one in my disdain both for Brexit and Boris. But he cut through what had become a stalemate and Got Brexit Done, something we had voted for several years earlier. And no I still don't think a second vote would have been anti-democratic (a logistical and governance nightmare perhaps) but I digress.
TLDR: it was such a dishonest project that only a liar could deliver it.
It makes a lot of sense to bet on Hall when she is out in double figures. She has a very decent outside chance of winning. She needs the anti-Khan vote to come out (that is guaranteed), a lot of Labour vote complacency, minimal anti-Tory switching to Labour by LDs and Greens, and a large active rejection of Labour by Gaza-focused Muslims and others. That all seems very possible to me.
Apparently the Tories think only about 2 million voted in London and 6 million were registered so around 33% .
That’s about 7% down on 2021.
Low turnout could also be due to Tories sitting on their hands, which seems to me at least as likely as all the non-voters being otherwise Labour supporters.
Very true. Though London is a peculiar one, in that you have a very prominent figurehead and an 8 year incumbent for the opposition party who is very divisive. It feels to me like London voters might not be quite the disillusioned Tories sitting on their hands that we have seen in the rest of the country. I would be gobsmacked if she wins, but I do think the result will be far closer than the polls predict.
So why would the polls be wrong? A 22% lead in last one from yougov.
Polls can always be wrong. They are only predictors, at the end of the day. There can be a myriad of reasons for this. Bailey outperformed the polls in 2021, for instance.
Of course if Hall wins (which, as I note, I’d be gobsmacked if she did) this would be a polling upset up there with the very biggest of them.
Wait. Polls aren’t forecasts is my line. 😇
One reason obviously for a Khan loss is Labour vote is down 16 points on 2021 in areas with a Muslim population, according to BBC. Labour down 16 points on average is a whopping figure isn’t it? No one predicted Gaza Backlash to be quite that impactful?
Some PBers said Gaza Backlash wouldn’t happen in London because Khans position is different to Starmer’s, but maybe it’s not worked out like that, like vote Khan get Starmer’s policy?
London has a very large Muslim population to be sure. It's 15% of the total. 16% of 15% is 2.4%. So what you're implying, crudely, is that Gaza led to 2.4% of Londoners abstaining. That's not really a whopping figure.
Contrast all that with the final YouGov this time round. It would be an absolute catastrophe for them and everyone else involved if Khan lost.
While a Hall win is certainly possible I see very little polling evidence, and that evidence is the best we have, pointing to anything other than a Khan win. The rest is partisan Tweets and anecdata.
Political punters are most likely following PB and @MoonRabbit has been ramping for Hall with every fifth post since 10pm last night.
Of course she could be correct.
I am 100% confident Khan has won.
(No-one mention how wrong I was with my last political bet on the Rochdale by-election.)
Though if I recall there was an even more dramatic shortening of the odds on the disowned Lab candidate between close of poll and result. In the event I think he came fourth!
I think some tories mis-underestimate SKS. For the past two and half years he's been gradually feeding the tory party into a woodchipper. Now the tories have brought some of the well-deserved calamity on themselves and it's possible that with the slow-motion catastrophe of Brexit unfolding they ineffably doomed by SKS still had to make the right moves to capitalise on their mis-steps.
Remember, always, SKS is a lawyer.
His demolitions are less entertaining than a 900 words tossed off by a columnist, but they are much more likely to have the intended effect. The difference between blowing something up with a tonne of TNT and Fred Dibnah felling a chimney by pulling out the right bits at the bottom so it just collapses.
Impressive, once you accept that that's what you're looking at.
You are giving him far, far too much credit - Boris self destructed, with no help from Sir Keir, then Truss's budget caused huge panic and turned a mid term polling malaise into a complete cliff drop.
Starmer cheered on the lockdown which is responsible for the economy crashing and has taken either the wrong side (extending lockdown/trans issues), or both sides of every other argument. Labour aren't adding new votes anywhere, it's just that the Tories 2019 coalition of voters, that only Boris could conceivably hold together, has fractured.
98%.
Boris was flawed and was more to be seen as a hired gun in this case brought in to Get Brexit Done, which he did with great success. But hired guns aren't cut out to run the whole show. As we saw subsequently.
Boris needs great support, great team management, and to have competent people around him which would have allowed him to carry on being Boris. Instead, the hired gun got a bit carried away or rather, didn't think he needed a competent and robust team and thought he could wing running the show. And he couldn't.
That last bit is what I think you are missing. Boris was fantastic at that one specific task (Brexit) but that was it. He then thought, as did you, that he was good enough for broader management of party, government and country. He wasn't.
Boris wasn't fantastic at the specific task of Brexit. Boris was able to get Brexit done by lying about the problems, specifically how to accommodate Northern Ireland. Unless you mean he was fantastic at lying!
Of course he was fantastic about lying.
But he Got Brexit Done.
No one knew what it was to start with beyond contractually exiting the EU and he achieved that.
I mean I yield to no one in my disdain both for Brexit and Boris. But he cut through what had become a stalemate and Got Brexit Done, something we had voted for several years earlier. And no I still don't think a second vote would have been anti-democratic (a logistical and governance nightmare perhaps) but I digress.
TLDR: it was such a dishonest project that only a liar could deliver it.
Hartlepool by 7%, 19% swing to Lab Redcar and Cleveland by 13%, 18.5% swing to Lab Boro by 1%, 18% swing to Labour
Andy Street loses I think on that kind of swing - but tight???
Yes - as it was mere 54-46 last time. But no. As it’s a different, different candidates (ones being investigated by the police as ineligible) and different circumstances.
As polling put Street ahead the Tories are right to be quietly confident.
So that will be at least three Tory wins including North Yorkshire and York, though mood music has been giving East Midlands to Labour. So at least 3-1 to the Tories from these battlegrounds.
3 announced so far. Swings seem to be 10-20% away from the Tories to whoever.
Avon & Somerset - LAB gain. Big votes for Green / Lib Dem. Cumbria - LAB gain. Big swing but only 2 candidates. Lincs - CON hold. Third termer Tory.
These are the police forces in special measures, which I think may make it worse for incumbents where applicable:
Notts, Metropolitan police, West Midlands police, Devon and Cornwall, Staffordshire and Wiltshire.
It’s always seemed weird to me, for the PCC candidates to carry party affiliation.
I can definitely see the point of electing the police commissioner, but also don’t want to see the American system of electing everyone down to the dog catcher along party lines.
Apparently the Tories think only about 2 million voted in London and 6 million were registered so around 33% .
That’s about 7% down on 2021.
Low turnout could also be due to Tories sitting on their hands, which seems to me at least as likely as all the non-voters being otherwise Labour supporters.
Very true. Though London is a peculiar one, in that you have a very prominent figurehead and an 8 year incumbent for the opposition party who is very divisive. It feels to me like London voters might not be quite the disillusioned Tories sitting on their hands that we have seen in the rest of the country. I would be gobsmacked if she wins, but I do think the result will be far closer than the polls predict.
So why would the polls be wrong? A 22% lead in last one from yougov.
Polls can always be wrong. They are only predictors, at the end of the day. There can be a myriad of reasons for this. Bailey outperformed the polls in 2021, for instance.
Of course if Hall wins (which, as I note, I’d be gobsmacked if she did) this would be a polling upset up there with the very biggest of them.
Wait. Polls aren’t forecasts is my line. 😇
One reason obviously for a Khan loss is Labour vote is down 16 points on 2021 in areas with a Muslim population, according to BBC. Labour down 16 points on average is a whopping figure isn’t it? No one predicted Gaza Backlash to be quite that impactful?
Some PBers said Gaza Backlash wouldn’t happen in London because Khans position is different to Starmer’s, but maybe it’s not worked out like that, like vote Khan get Starmer’s policy?
London has a very large Muslim population to be sure. It's 15% of the total. 16% of 15% is 2.4%. So what you're implying, crudely, is that Gaza led to 2.4% of Londoners abstaining. That's not really a whopping figure.
Contrast all that with the final YouGov this time round. It would be an absolute catastrophe for them and everyone else involved if Khan lost.
While a Hall win is certainly possible I see very little polling evidence, and that evidence is the best we have, pointing to anything other than a Khan win. The rest is partisan Tweets and anecdata.
Political punters are most likely following PB and @MoonRabbit has been ramping for Hall with every fifth post since 10pm last night.
Of course she could be correct.
What is her prediction? Notably, she hasn't clarified that – so she can claim victory whatever happens.
Apparently the Tories think only about 2 million voted in London and 6 million were registered so around 33% .
That’s about 7% down on 2021.
Low turnout could also be due to Tories sitting on their hands, which seems to me at least as likely as all the non-voters being otherwise Labour supporters.
Very true. Though London is a peculiar one, in that you have a very prominent figurehead and an 8 year incumbent for the opposition party who is very divisive. It feels to me like London voters might not be quite the disillusioned Tories sitting on their hands that we have seen in the rest of the country. I would be gobsmacked if she wins, but I do think the result will be far closer than the polls predict.
So why would the polls be wrong? A 22% lead in last one from yougov.
Polls can always be wrong. They are only predictors, at the end of the day. There can be a myriad of reasons for this. Bailey outperformed the polls in 2021, for instance.
Of course if Hall wins (which, as I note, I’d be gobsmacked if she did) this would be a polling upset up there with the very biggest of them.
Wait. Polls aren’t forecasts is my line. 😇
One reason obviously for a Khan loss is Labour vote is down 16 points on 2021 in areas with a Muslim population, according to BBC. Labour down 16 points on average is a whopping figure isn’t it? No one predicted Gaza Backlash to be quite that impactful?
Some PBers said Gaza Backlash wouldn’t happen in London because Khans position is different to Starmer’s, but maybe it’s not worked out like that, like vote Khan get Starmer’s policy?
London has a very large Muslim population to be sure. It's 15% of the total. 16% of 15% is 2.4%. So what you're implying, crudely, is that Gaza led to 2.4% of Londoners abstaining. That's not really a whopping figure.
Contrast all that with the final YouGov this time round. It would be an absolute catastrophe for them and everyone else involved if Khan lost.
While a Hall win is certainly possible I see very little polling evidence, and that evidence is the best we have, pointing to anything other than a Khan win. The rest is partisan Tweets and anecdata.
Political punters are most likely following PB and @MoonRabbit has been ramping for Hall with every fifth post since 10pm last night.
Of course she could be correct.
I am 100% confident Khan has won.
(No-one mention how wrong I was with my last political bet on the Rochdale by-election.)
I notice you don't specify which Khan in which election
I'm 100% confident Khan has won London, FWIW (in 2016 and 2021)
Comments
So you can see we are knowledgable about and very interested in the nation as a whole.
Would be rather amusing if he had to appear before the inquiry remotely, dressed in an oranage jumpsuit.
Starmer cheered on the lockdown which is responsible for the economy crashing and has taken either the wrong side (extending lockdown/trans issues), or both sides of every other argument. Labour aren't adding new votes anywhere, it's just that the Tories 2019 coalition of voters, that only Boris could conceivably hold together, has fractured.
Trouble is as we've seen from locals in recent years the narrative is set by what happens overnight. By the end of the counting process everyone's got bored. Which is one reason even if Khan loses it won't necessarily shift the negatively from the Conservatives.
It probably won’t stay that way, once the Home Counties get going, but one can hope…
Interestingly - apparently the Hartlepool MP has messaged colleagues saying she’s heard that Ben Houchen has won the Hartlepool part of his patch- but by 2,000 votes. Haven’t got actual results yet- but if that’s right that would be hugely reduced majority
The Lab canvasser (who I actually knew a bit) reckoned they were in with a shout, but could go either way. Parts of the north of the area would seem to look historically more fertile for Lab than LD. Plausible that STV and FPTP would give different results here.
Boris was flawed and was more to be seen as a hired gun in this case brought in to Get Brexit Done, which he did with great success. But hired guns aren't cut out to run the whole show. As we saw subsequently.
Boris needs great support, great team management, and to have competent people around him which would have allowed him to carry on being Boris. Instead, the hired gun got a bit carried away or rather, didn't think he needed a competent and robust team and thought he could wing running the show. And he couldn't.
That last bit is what I think you are missing. Boris was fantastic at that one specific task (Brexit) but that was it. He then thought, as did you, that he was good enough for broader management of party, government and country. He wasn't.
He's one of those folk who after being pwnd can't let it lie (a strange concept to PB I accept).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/england/results#pcc-scoreboard
3 announced so far. Swings seem to be 10-20% away from the Tories to whoever.
Avon & Somerset - LAB gain. Big votes for Green / Lib Dem.
Cumbria - LAB gain. Big swing but only 2 candidates.
Lincs - CON hold. Third termer Tory.
These are the police forces in special measures, which I think may make it worse for incumbents where applicable:
Notts, Metropolitan police, West Midlands police, Devon and Cornwall, Staffordshire and Wiltshire.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.201750386
He won’t though.
His great success was leaving before most of it hit the fan...
Wiki (If it's right, big if I know) shows the starting totals as Con 989 and LD 418
500 Con losses takes the Cons to 489 which means the Lib Dems need 71 gains to overtake the Tories. Dorset council is all up, as is Wokingham where I'd have thought there'd be decent Lib Dem gains with dribs and drabs from other places. It certainly looks possible to me.
And Redcar and Cleveland results are in...
Houchen 15987
Lab 12015
Lib Dem 1639
Ben Houchen comes out top in Hartlepool as it is the first Tees Valley Council to declare.
Houchen (Con) 10074, McEwan (Lab) 8732, Thorley (Lib Dem) 972.
Encouraging result for the Mayor in an area where Conservatives lost six council seats last night and Labour gained eight.
NEW: Labour have conceded defeat in the Tees Valley mayoral contest.
Labour source says it’s a win for Ben Houchen, not the Conservative Party and say: Labour is on track to achieve the 12.5% swing in the region it needs to win back seats here.
NEW
ToryMP Andrea Jenkyns calls for changes in piece for @Telegraph
* Sunak must “wake up” and bring in more Tory polices or lose the election
* ‘War cabinet’ reshuffle is needed. Jenrick, Mogg, Braverman, Patel
* Plus, make Boris the Tory chairman (!)
image always appears in my mind.
You’d only ever do that with the permission of *everyone* involved, very much including the person in charge of the business unit, and a significant audit trail that documented the bug.
My zone 6 facebook contacts (I wouldnt call them friends) were all posting "Khan Out"; there is a very motivated group of what I would class as unthinking Leave type, borderline BNP voters that wanted rid of him, but I never thought for a minute there would be enough to actually see him lose. I still dont to be honest, but he is drifting... 1.11-1.12 now
Just looking at the Hartlepool result for the Tees Valley mayor, you can see the big change from four years ago. Probably enough to see off a leadership challenge, but pretty big swing.
2021:
CON 72.6%
LAB 27.4%
2024:
CON 50.94%
LAB 44.15%
If they can find one of those...
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/sport/football/liverpool-fixtures-a-crime-worthy-of-investigation-by-amnesty-international-says-klopp/ar-AA1o5eW1
No. Polls are not forecasts. But they are a reasonable indicator. Tories can win in London. Johnson won in London. Hall might win in London. But in 2008 the final YouGov before the election was almost bang on the nail - https://web.archive.org/web/20161228140427/http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/london-mayor .
As it was in 2012 - https://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/dom2smbrfs/YG-Archives-EveningStandard-MayoralElection-030512finalplustabs.pdf
And in 2016 - https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3zwkboqn5x/EveningStandardResults_160504_LondonFINALCALL_W.pdf
I accept that in 2021 it was further out but it still managed to get Khan's voteshare within 3% -https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/8j36zntkp3/Results_FinalCallLondon_210504_W.pdf
Contrast all that with the final YouGov this time round. It would be an absolute catastrophe for them and everyone else involved if Khan lost.
While a Hall win is certainly possible I see very little polling evidence, and that evidence is the best we have, pointing to anything other than a Khan win. The rest is partisan Tweets and anecdata.
Hartlepool by 7%, 19% swing to Lab
Redcar and Cleveland by 13%, 18.5% swing to Lab
Boro by 1%, 18% swing to Labour
Birmingham Labour source calling West Midlands mayoralty for Andy Street. “We have beaten him as a general rule, but the Muslim vote has collapsed to the Galloway-backed independent.”
Labour 47,220
Green 37,375
Conservative 19,788
Liberal Democrats 10,412
Based on that Labour should get a majority in these all-out elections, it'll be interesting to see how well Greens do in the Bristol West wards.
But he Got Brexit Done.
No one knew what it was to start with beyond contractually exiting the EU and he achieved that.
I mean I yield to no one in my disdain both for Brexit and Boris. But he cut through what had become a stalemate and Got Brexit Done, something we had voted for several years earlier. And no I still don't think a second vote would have been anti-democratic (a logistical and governance nightmare perhaps) but I digress.
It's also the case that Houchen (and Street) kind of minimised the Conservative brand in his campaign!
So, it would be a mistake for the Tories to think Houchen winning means they've nothing to worry about when it comes to the general election. But, yes, there are lessons to be learnt from Houchen's success. I don't think "change leader again" is one of them.
Yuk.
@BethRigby
As for W Mids, too close to call. Told Lab vote depressed in Birmingham as the council woes hit home."
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1786333766648000543
If Galloway's mob are polling well among Muslims, it could also help the Conservative PCC in Bedfordshire, where a Workers' Party candidate is running, and where Luton is about 25% Muslim.
Of course she could be correct.
Houchen wins by disowning the party
Swing means every Tory MP in NE England will lose
Houchen then gets done over by the NAO and presumably then the police
Labour comfortably win the Mayoral by-election
From what I hear (and said before) the mess at Teesworks is so great that Labour would prefer Ben’s and the Tory party’s name is the only 1 attached to it when the Audit Office start looking
It would be done within 4-5 days of the calling of the confidence vote.
(No-one mention how wrong I was with my last political bet on the Rochdale by-election.)
Why people vote on international issues for a local election with no international remit I don’t know
But no. As it’s a different, different candidates (ones being investigated by the police as ineligible) and different circumstances.
As polling put Street ahead the Tories are right to be quietly confident.
So that will be at least three Tory wins including North Yorkshire and York, though mood music has been giving East Midlands to Labour. So at least 3-1 to the Tories from these battlegrounds.
I can definitely see the point of electing the police commissioner, but also don’t want to see the American system of electing everyone down to the dog catcher along party lines.
I'm 100% confident Khan has won London, FWIW (in 2016 and 2021)
Councillor Karl Peter Marx Wardlaw has been chosen to represent the area of Brinnington and Stockport Central in landslide victory
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/05/03/karl-marx-wins-stockport-seat-labour/ (£££)
OK it is pushing it a bit but vaguely interesting trivia for quiz conpilers.