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A grim election night so far for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

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  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    rcs1000 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Sean_F said:

    I guess Starmer would argue that if he'd taken a different position on Gaza Labour may have done better in Oldham, Rochdale etc., but would have been less likely to win Rushmoor, Redditch etc.

    It's pretty complex to work out potential gains vs. losses in relation to his Gaza stance. Hopefully, it will be less of an issue come the GE.

    Bluntly, Labour can afford losses in the former, to make gains in the latter.
    This is the return of triangulation that was so successful under Blair, until it wasn't.

    Much like the Tories over the past 14 years, the goodwill of the centre erodes eventually - and it turns out you've lost your base too.
    The Conservatives, like any party in power for a long time, is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Reenergize the base and wipe out reform, and you lose voters in the center and ramp up the willingness of people to vote tactically.

    On the other hand, moves to the center result in you losing your base to either new parties or to Won't Bother Voting They're All The Same.

    People are voting against the Conservatives because they haven't had a great four and a half years economically, with rising commodity prices and interest rates. They're hurting. (And that's true across the developed world, with incumbents being punished for rises in the cost of living.)
    The Canadian Liberals' poll ratings are very similar to the Conservatives, and the Canadian Conservatives' very similar to Labour.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,921
    Taz said:

    Women's Equality Partyhave won a seat fron the Cons in Basingstoke & Deane.

    Do they know what a woman is ?
    They are any person who is equal.

    Obviously.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696

    Women's Equality Partyhave won a seat fron the Cons in Basingstoke & Deane.

    I think that is their first ever (at principal local authority level).
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696

    Leon said:

    Donkeys said:

    Off-topic: a wild orangutan has self-medicated, using a chewed herb with anti-inflammatory and analgesic properties to dress and heal his wound:

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/article/2024/may/02/orangutan-seen-treating-wound-with-medicinal-herb-in-first-for-wild-animals-max-planck-institute-sumatra

    How did the ability to do this - meaning the ability of which this particular ability is one manifestation - evolve without language?

    Doubtless Richard Loony Dawkins and Steven Bullshit Pinker could offer a knee-jerky materialist answer.

    Makes you wonder what abilities humans possessed, and possibly still do possess in some sense despite the powerful and growing assaults on them by bean-counters digital.

    I saw that. It’s incredible. Some primates have also been witnessed spear-fishing

    They are evolving
    That's not evolving. That's a cultural/behavioural change.
    Indeed... and it's not even a change, it's probably just us observing it for the first time, but they've been doing it for millions of years.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301

    NEW THREAD

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,795
    What was the swing in the Lord Houchen memorial election?

    Love the line that he "forgot" to bring his blue rosette to the count, and that no, he was unable to unable to borrow one. Not that he in anyway was trying to hide from the Tory Party. No sir.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696
    Foxy said:

    The Women's Equality Party have now won a Council seat. This puts them ahead of Reform, I think.

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1786356051970797817?t=yEM49gNREIt7Roqgei5MNg&s=19

    In these elections? Yes.

    In total? No. Reform UK have ten(!) times as many councillors nationally.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    The Women's Equality Party have now won a Council seat. This puts them ahead of Reform, I think.

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1786356051970797817?t=yEM49gNREIt7Roqgei5MNg&s=19

    When you think about it, that’s absurd.
    Without seeing a manifesto, its hard to judge, but I hope they are against the WASPI women's claim, for instance.

    You have to wonder which bit of women's equality they think is currently missing.

    Things like average earnings for men vs women are now mostly (exclusively?) down to different career choices coupled to career breaks to have children.
    “We fully support the campaign by Women Against State Pension Inequality (WASPI) to reverse government plans to force pension arrangements onto women without allowing them sufficient time to plan their retirement.”

    https://www.womensequality.org.uk/commons_vote_on_pension_equality_fails_women
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696
    Taz said:

    Women's Equality Partyhave won a seat fron the Cons in Basingstoke & Deane.

    Do they know what a woman is ?
    "WE recognise that the binary words “woman” and “man” do not reflect the gender experience of everyone in our country and support the right of all to define their sex or gender or to reject gendered divisions as they choose.

    "Women, as a class, are discriminated against and oppressed. There is a shared experience as a class but that discrimination and oppression will often express itself differently for cis women and trans women, just as other factors such as age, ethnicity, economic background and disability are likely to have an impact.

    "WE are committed to addressing the very real oppression of trans people as well as the social structures that oppress and sometimes erase cis women and damage all genders. Cis inclusivity must never mean trans exclusivity, nor vice versa. There are huge and serious issues to address and it is vital that we find ways to discuss our experiences in an environment of mutual respect and tolerance if we are to progress to equality for all."

    https://www.womensequality.org.uk/nov_17_statement
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    The Women's Equality Party have now won a Council seat. This puts them ahead of Reform, I think.

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1786356051970797817?t=yEM49gNREIt7Roqgei5MNg&s=19

    When you think about it, that’s absurd.
    Without seeing a manifesto, its hard to judge, but I hope they are against the WASPI women's claim, for instance.

    You have to wonder which bit of women's equality they think is currently missing.

    Things like average earnings for men vs women are now mostly (exclusively?) down to different career choices coupled to career breaks to have children.
    This is all really rather unfair, substituting your caricature for actually spending a couple of minutes to find out what they actually do say.

    A very brief look at the Wikipedia page, for example, gives us this policy:
    "Walker also called for six weeks' paid leave, at 90% pay, for both parents after having a baby, as well as an extra 10 months of shared leave at statutory pay."

    That looks like a policy aiming for true equality, where men have the entitlement to paid leave to be able to play an equal role in childcare. This is consistent with their argument that, "Equality for women isn't a women's issue. When women fulfil their potential, everyone benefits."
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,123
    Leon said:

    Donkeys said:

    Off-topic: a wild orangutan has self-medicated, using a chewed herb with anti-inflammatory and analgesic properties to dress and heal his wound:

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/article/2024/may/02/orangutan-seen-treating-wound-with-medicinal-herb-in-first-for-wild-animals-max-planck-institute-sumatra

    How did the ability to do this - meaning the ability of which this particular ability is one manifestation - evolve without language?

    Doubtless Richard Loony Dawkins and Steven Bullshit Pinker could offer a knee-jerky materialist answer.

    Makes you wonder what abilities humans possessed, and possibly still do possess in some sense despite the powerful and growing assaults on them by bean-counters digital.

    I saw that. It’s incredible. Some primates have also been witnessed spear-fishing

    They are evolving
    That's all very interesting, but it isn't evolution in the sense that term is generally used, it is learning - and those are very different things. They have seen a thing and copied it - which is clearly intelligent but it is the SAME intelligence that they possessed thousands of years ago rather than a change to the organism.

    In terms of Donkey's point about language, you just don't need language to copy something or to know that, if you do something, others may copy you. it's incredibly useful to have language if you want to build an advanced civilisation, and it is perhaps a marker of ability to engage in more abstract levels of thought than "see and copy". But I don't think anyone sensible says non-human animals are all entirely unthinking automatons. Indeed, that's kind of the opposite of what those who study evolution would say - their point is that we're a species of animal that occupies the "incredibly strong abilities to have and communicate abstract thoughts" niche, not that that is a "better" niche than those occupied by slugs and bats, nor that no other animals have the ability to think.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,270

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    The Women's Equality Party have now won a Council seat. This puts them ahead of Reform, I think.

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1786356051970797817?t=yEM49gNREIt7Roqgei5MNg&s=19

    When you think about it, that’s absurd.
    Without seeing a manifesto, its hard to judge, but I hope they are against the WASPI women's claim, for instance.

    You have to wonder which bit of women's equality they think is currently missing.

    Things like average earnings for men vs women are now mostly (exclusively?) down to different career choices coupled to career breaks to have children.
    “We fully support the campaign by Women Against State Pension Inequality (WASPI) to reverse government plans to force pension arrangements onto women without allowing them sufficient time to plan their retirement.”

    https://www.womensequality.org.uk/commons_vote_on_pension_equality_fails_women
    So they don't want equality then?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353
    Selebian said:

    Hall has lost pretty much all of her earlier market gains and has slid back out (very quickly) to 13. She was as low as 7 only half an hour ago.

    Seems a quick shift?

    Coincides with MR's mini flounce? Punters losing confidence as she refuses to commit :disappointed:
    Oh give over 🙄
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    The US version of Arkell v Pressdram

    The LA Police Foundation sent a C&D letter to the seller of shirts that said "FUCK THE LAPD."

    The Foundation said it holds exclusive IP rights to the word "LAPD."

    The seller's response was succinct:

    https://twitter.com/RobertFreundLaw/status/1786079615544590678
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Good news for Gazans having problems with their bin collection. They can contact Oldham Council and they'll do their best to sort it out.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    The Women's Equality Party have now won a Council seat. This puts them ahead of Reform, I think.

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1786356051970797817?t=yEM49gNREIt7Roqgei5MNg&s=19

    When you think about it, that’s absurd.
    Without seeing a manifesto, its hard to judge, but I hope they are against the WASPI women's claim, for instance.

    You have to wonder which bit of women's equality they think is currently missing.

    Things like average earnings for men vs women are now mostly (exclusively?) down to different career choices coupled to career breaks to have children.
    This is all really rather unfair, substituting your caricature for actually spending a couple of minutes to find out what they actually do say.

    A very brief look at the Wikipedia page, for example, gives us this policy:
    "Walker also called for six weeks' paid leave, at 90% pay, for both parents after having a baby, as well as an extra 10 months of shared leave at statutory pay."

    That looks like a policy aiming for true equality, where men have the entitlement to paid leave to be able to play an equal role in childcare. This is consistent with their argument that, "Equality for women isn't a women's issue. When women fulfil their potential, everyone benefits."
    See above - they do support the WASPI women. I find that position at odds with my concept of equality.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    edited May 3
    @DougSeal

    In case nobody has answered, the last time we had four PMs in one Parliament was 1865-68 - Palmerston (died) Russell (voted out) Derby (retired) Disraeli (lost election).

    I think the record is five, from 1780-84 - North, Rockingham, Shelburne, Portland and Pitt.
This discussion has been closed.