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The July 20th by-elections – latest betting – politicalbetting.com

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    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,989
    viewcode said:
    That twitter account doesn't look terribly reliable? Can't see it being reported anywhere else? Though I can see TASS saying he was about to make a statement.
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,873
    Oh, c'mon, don't say Vanilla caps it now at 999. What's an OCD'er to do?
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,501
    edited June 2023

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.

    A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.

    Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
    C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
    I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.

    Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.

    The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.

    Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
    But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
    A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.

    Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.

    So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
    The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
    Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.

    In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.

    In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.

    Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
    Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
    You can't promise that a continuation of the Russian war in Ukraine won't result in further horrors, like the destruction of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. So, yes, there are terrible uncertainties in both future scenarios.

    So concentrate on what we know. A civil war in Russia will end the war in Ukraine. That's a good trade in my view.
    I can't promise that. That's the point. It's not a trade, as in a chess match or something, it's a development with unknowable and potentially cataclysmic consequences. To go back to where we started - the notion of actively hoping for a 'full blown civil war in Russia'. To me 'full blown civil war' sounds utterly horrendous, both for the carnage and chaos it would cause in Russia and the potential for overspill. It's just not a 'hoping for' type of event.

    I don't believe you're truly hoping for it either. What you want to see is just enough internal shit in Russia to get them to quit Ukraine and not a penny more. I'd like to see that too but it depends on how much 'shit' it takes. I'm certainly not about to 'hope' for the ruination and collapse of Russia, or the deaths of millions of Russian people. Putin is 100% to blame, he started this war, but I don't feel the suffering of Russians counts as nothing compared to Ukrainians.
    Your apologia for Russian fascism is truly disturbing and betrays a lack of sense and humanity.

    Ukrainians are the victims in this, not Russia. Seeing a continuation of war crimes in Ukraine is not something to desire, to avoid a collapse of Russia.

    Even Russia quitting Ukraine and "not a penny more" leaves Putin's fascist regime in charge of Russia and repressing Russia's people.

    A relatively peaceful overthrow of Putin is more desirable than a protracted civil war, sure, but either of a simply overthrow or a civil war are infinitely preferable to seeing Russia continue invading other nations.
    My revulsion for Putin's aggression towards Ukraine and his sinister repressive regime hasn't led me to not give a shit about the suffering of Russian people. If that's what's happened with you, I'd suggest it's you with the problem.
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,873
    The lag in the numbers incrementing, 1002 now, it's like being on a petrol pump. Grrrr.
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    CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    "The most important thing... is for all parties to be responsible and to protect civilians"

    PM Rishi Sunak responds to the military situation in Russia in an exclusive interview with Laura Kuenssberg

    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1672615551838076928

    He did Ed Miliband.
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    TazTaz Posts: 11,405

    Shocking that this coup will end up going nowhere.

    As soon as Leon gets excited about anything it's time to admit defeat. If he told me it was raining I would go outside and check

    It’s only doomed when rogerdamus backs it.
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    Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 597
    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Sean_F said:

    How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.

    You misspelled "grown". We're better when we don't fuck other people's countries up.
    It would be a remarkable group discussing a coup in ancient Welsh.
    They've played a long game, the ancient welsh. 1500 years or so but they are just about ready to strike back at the anglo-saxon invaders.
    Rydyn ni yma o hyd.....
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