Have to say that the R&T and Curtice modelling feel odd to me. While they’ve probably got the Tories right, the share to Lib Dems and others seems quite overstated.
I get that they’re models - and actually the seat count for the LDs might be closer than the share prediction - but they just feel oddly dissonant to me. So many places - there are notable exceptions, but by far the rule - have seen the Tories get utterly smashed, and crucially the SNP are doing their level best to become as unappealing as possible.
Quite obviously the LDs and Greens do well at Locals compared to nationally, and certainly the LDs are strongly back in England now.
In a GE though I think the LD and Green votes will be down by half, with Labour getting most of the benefit, Labour being unobjectional if uninspiring.
Politics is interesting again, but confusing from an ideological point of view. .
The LDs did very well, but beyond a bit of residual pro EU vibes I have absolutely no idea what they stand for. There is nothing there beyond being anti Tory.
Labour have been rowing back from the Corbyn years, but are yet to galvanise their new vision. Nevertheless they have won convincingly.
The Tories seem stuck between waging a vicious culture war and the last vestiges compassionate conservatism, whilst trying to gather some remnants of competence from the ashes of Truss/Johnson. Total failure.
Even the Greens seem halfway between the radical far left and cosy middle class feel good environmentalism.
The Greens in Brighton was sub optimal I feel sure everyone breathed a sigh of relief when they were booted out.
Sussex as microcosm is especially interesting .
The big towns swung to Labour, a few miles away the more rural bit swung heavily to the Lib Dems. Just a few miles apart you see very different patterns.
The folk memory of who is the challenger seems to be decisive, but that is such an ephemeral thing.
Either way it seems centrism, social democracy and liberalism are firmly back in fashion after an age of extremes. The Tories need to remember their more moderate wing.
Either way we can be sure the results will confirm the pre-existing beliefs that people already had.
I suspect competence, exasperation and time for a change was a bigger factor than political ideology in almost all cases.
Whilst I’m delighted at the outcome, I am curious about the mechanism. How did people know which direction to jump to unseat the Tory? Not everyone was voting the last time tactical anti Tory voting dominated. It can’t all be folk memory, but yet somehow the perfect pattern emerged. Was it tactical voting websites? It’s not obvious when you think about it.
No it's really easy. You just go on any number of websites from electoral calculus to the bbc, type in your postcode, and see the results from last time.
Although I'm a newbie in Teignbridge it took me 5 seconds to work out that my Labour leanings wouldn't defeat the tories so I voted for 3 LibDems.
I will vote Labour at the GE because my Newton Abbot constituency is more Con-Lab marginal.
@Sean_F claimed yesterday that more LibDem voters will vote tory at the next GE than Labour. Of all the most fantastical posts on pb.com, that leads the way. Almost none of us who voted LibDem on Thursday will be placing our cross in a tory box thanks!
Unlike you @Sean_F knows what he's talking about and his analysis is widely respected on here.
You just see your job to get up early to tub-thumb for your team.
I've not seen Sean Fear's post, but if it was as reported it does seem odd. I know LibDems who wouldn't touch Labour with a bargepole, but I don't actually know any who seem remotely tempted to vote Conservative. Indeed, a great many of the results yesterday were IMO at heart a "not the Tories again!" votes, rather than much positive enthusiasm for any of the other parties. It's a pity that politics is in such a negative space, but there is a large majority who are just tired of the Conservatives for now. It happens to us all, and happened to Labour in 2010 in much the same way.
Tactical voting does take work and explanation. I was involved in the count in two wards, one of which had vast amounts of canvassing and the other (for various family and health issues) didn't. The former (mine) had a significant majority of people voting for multi-member LLG candidates. The latter had very little - loads of LibDem and Labour voters just using one of their votes for their preferred party and ignoring the rest. Both won anyway as the Tory vote evaporated, but they were a both a bit lucky.
Someone has misquoted me. I said that a plurality of people who voted for independents and residents in local elections, will vote Conservative at the GE. People in Castle Point, or Maldon, Kings Lynn, or Clacton are not going to return independent MPs at the next election (and if they did, they'd be well to the right of the Conservatives).
I also said that some people (nowhere near a majority) who vote Lib Dem in local elections will vote Conservative at national level. That's obviously the case in places like Watford and Bushey.
And, most people who voted Green will vote either Labour or Lib Dem in the GE.
It is not clear whether the Telegraph's headline-writer bothered to read the story which is more balanced and includes: Huw Merriman, a transport minister, said constituents were complaining to him about “older news about former prime ministers”.
Not entirely untrue in the detail of the article. High taxes (that keep going up) were the reason I almost stayed at home and definitely the reason I didn't campaign or donate.
It was only the prospect of crowing Lefties, which I knew I wouldn't be able to bear well if I hadn't voted, that got me out there and the fact that my existing Councillor is quite good.
That has nothing to do with the leadership. Boris would be even worse and even shitter in delivery. Essentially, Sunak has to give something to vote for and steady administration (whilst essential) isn't on its own going to be enough.
I’m not sure Woke and Boats are ‘it’ either. The former doesn’t really move the dial, and the latter is visibly failing.
Anti-Woke only bothers those who are quite Woke - it's the one thing I think the Tories are doing quite well on, and pushing back on. .
Of course you do. And you exemplify why your party took a hammering yesterday and why it is going to take a hammering at the GE.
The Tories didn't do badly yesterday for that reason.
I detect near zero interest in it here in Scotland. Only one person in my acquaintance has mentioned it - they will watch.
Nevertheless a coronation is for most people a once in a lifetime or a twice in a lifetime event, so interesting for that reason alone.
Everyone will whinge about it (uncool, want to seem independent, self-respect, not deferential etc etc) and still watch it today, because it's an amazing and unique spectacle and not really about the things they caricature it as anyway.
TBH they aren't whingeing about the coronation either. I suspect people will watch if they are not doing something else. But it doesn't seem to have caught people's imaginations. There was more interest in the Queen's passing, I think, but that might be in part because she died in Scotland and there were various ceremonies in Scotland.
Of course religious royalists need loony republicans, it’s indifference they can’t stand. They know in their waters people not caring one way or another is the end of monarchy. On that basis the rozzers nipping peaceful republican protests in the bud seems a mistake, not to mention fairly oppressive.
Quite. Far more concerned here about how I'm going to set up a new laptop though relieved about the rain as it will save a lot of watering of the garden.
‘Tis not all indifference at my bit. Interesting random approach to capitals, not quite the King’s English.
Bloody hell, I thought Lana wolf (sic) was some pub singer, but no! I’m beginning to think this may be satirical.
Have to say that the R&T and Curtice modelling feel odd to me. While they’ve probably got the Tories right, the share to Lib Dems and others seems quite overstated.
I get that they’re models - and actually the seat count for the LDs might be closer than the share prediction - but they just feel oddly dissonant to me. So many places - there are notable exceptions, but by far the rule - have seen the Tories get utterly smashed, and crucially the SNP are doing their level best to become as unappealing as possible.
Quite obviously the LDs and Greens do well at Locals compared to nationally, and certainly the LDs are strongly back in England now.
In a GE though I think the LD and Green votes will be down by half, with Labour getting most of the benefit, Labour being unobjectional if uninspiring.
Politics is interesting again, but confusing from an ideological point of view. .
The LDs did very well, but beyond a bit of residual pro EU vibes I have absolutely no idea what they stand for. There is nothing there beyond being anti Tory.
Labour have been rowing back from the Corbyn years, but are yet to galvanise their new vision. Nevertheless they have won convincingly.
The Tories seem stuck between waging a vicious culture war and the last vestiges compassionate conservatism, whilst trying to gather some remnants of competence from the ashes of Truss/Johnson. Total failure.
Even the Greens seem halfway between the radical far left and cosy middle class feel good environmentalism.
The Greens in Brighton was sub optimal I feel sure everyone breathed a sigh of relief when they were booted out.
Sussex as microcosm is especially interesting .
The big towns swung to Labour, a few miles away the more rural bit swung heavily to the Lib Dems. Just a few miles apart you see very different patterns.
The folk memory of who is the challenger seems to be decisive, but that is such an ephemeral thing.
Either way it seems centrism, social democracy and liberalism are firmly back in fashion after an age of extremes. The Tories need to remember their more moderate wing.
I don't think they were ever that out of favour. Remember 10 years ago we had a Conservative and LD coalition government with Cameron as PM and Clegg his deputy.
We had a brief period when Labour flirted with the hard left under Corbyn now ended under the more moderate Starmer and under Boris and Truss the Tories moved to the more populist right post Brexit but even Boris got SDP support to be Oxford Union President and Truss was once a LD and Rishi is on the more moderate wing of the Tories
and Hitler was once a painter...
What a load of tosh you come out with sometimes!
He does. But I believe it is sincere tosh, which is rather endearing in its way.
He lost yesterday, so deserves to be cut some slack today.
I am genuinely sorry to hear that he lost his seat. Onwards and upwards for next time.
I doubt there is a harder working, more dedicated elected official anywhere in the country.
Yeah it is a tough gig, so kudos to anyone who does it well. I was just reflecting on it this morning - one of our local councillors was elected accidentally and we have heard nothing at all from him in 3 years. Nothing of substance at all on his social media. Recently he left his local party and now sits as an independent. Not a good situation.
It is not clear whether the Telegraph's headline-writer bothered to read the story which is more balanced and includes: Huw Merriman, a transport minister, said constituents were complaining to him about “older news about former prime ministers”.
Not entirely untrue in the detail of the article. High taxes (that keep going up) were the reason I almost stayed at home and definitely the reason I didn't campaign or donate.
It was only the prospect of crowing Lefties, which I knew I wouldn't be able to bear well if I hadn't voted, that got me out there and the fact that my existing Councillor is quite good.
That has nothing to do with the leadership. Boris would be even worse and even shitter in delivery. Essentially, Sunak has to give something to vote for and steady administration (whilst essential) isn't on its own going to be enough.
I’m not sure Woke and Boats are ‘it’ either. The former doesn’t really move the dial, and the latter is visibly failing.
Anti-Woke only bothers those who are quite Woke - it's the one thing I think the Tories are doing quite well on, and pushing back on. .
Of course you do. And you exemplify why your party took a hammering yesterday and why it is going to take a hammering at the GE.
The Tories didn't do badly yesterday for that reason.
Uh?
Clearly they don't do badly for all the things they say and do. It must be "other factors". Those factors, when you look closely, are outside of the Government's control/cyclical/the fault of immigrants and when it all turns out dandy the Tories will be ushered back into office.
In December 2022, Reform UK proudly announced that Richard Langridge, who they claimed had been a a Tory on West Oxfordshire District Council, had jumped ship and would henceforth be standing for Reform. Langridge had had a 21% lead over his Labour rival in 2015, but had actually resigned in mid-term over a squabble about Local Plans and had stood in 2019 as an Independent - narrowly beating his Tory rival by 5% of the 2019 poll.
Langridge, in spite of Reform's press release, the stood in May 2023 as an Independent. And in a seat that had always returned a Tory or Langridge till this week, lost to the Greens by 11% of votes cast.
How many other deranged announcements from Farage's alcoholic cronies are just as based on completely vacuous substance?
Brighton Council’s new Labour leader responds to Brighton’s Green MP:
Thanks for the congratulations. But your Party has been a disaster for our City. An unmitigated disaster. And they needed to be kindly shown the door. A relief for us all.
First majority Labour council in nearly a quarter of a century…
For once I agree with a Labour politician....
There has been some grumbling among the local Corbynista wing that she was imposed by the Starmer machine….which may be why they won so convincingly - although the Greens may have had some successes elsewhere Brighton was bloody and brutal.
In December 2022, Reform UK proudly announced that Richard Langridge, who they claimed had been a a Tory on West Oxfordshire District Council, had jumped ship and would henceforth be standing for Reform. Langridge had had a 21% lead over his Labour rival in 2015, but had actually resigned in mid-term over a squabble about Local Plans and had stood in 2019 as an Independent - narrowly beating his Tory rival by 5% of the 2019 poll.
Langridge, in spite of Reform's press release, the stood in May 2023 as an Independent. And in a seat that had always returned a Tory or Langridge till this week, lost to the Greens by 11% of votes cast.
How many other deranged announcements from Farage's alcoholic cronies are just as based on completely vacuous substance?
I detect near zero interest in it here in Scotland. Only one person in my acquaintance has mentioned it - they will watch.
Nevertheless a coronation is for most people a once in a lifetime or a twice in a lifetime event, so interesting for that reason alone.
Everyone will whinge about it (uncool, want to seem independent, self-respect, not deferential etc etc) and still watch it today, because it's an amazing and unique spectacle and not really about the things they caricature it as anyway.
TBH they aren't whingeing about the coronation either. I suspect people will watch if they are not doing something else. But it doesn't seem to have caught people's imaginations. There was more interest in the Queen's passing, I think, but that might be in part because she died in Scotland and there were various ceremonies in Scotland.
Of course religious royalists need loony republicans, it’s indifference they can’t stand. They know in their waters people not caring one way or another is the end of monarchy. On that basis the rozzers nipping peaceful republican protests in the bud seems a mistake, not to mention fairly oppressive.
Quite. Far more concerned here about how I'm going to set up a new laptop though relieved about the rain as it will save a lot of watering of the garden.
‘Tis not all indifference at my bit. Interesting random approach to capitals, not quite the King’s English.
Bloody hell, I thought Lana wolf (sic) was some pub singer, but no! I’m beginning to think this may be satirical.
A slightly magic shared moment there: the TV showed pictures of Joan Armatrading, a singer-songwriter I really admire (I've seen her in concert once). I shouted: "Joan Armatrading!"
Then they went to Katy Perry, and my son shouted: "Katy Perry!", because he really likes some of her songs.
Had a thought that the issue of unaffordable housing is now toxic for the Conservatives on both sides.
Naturally those who cannot afford to buy / suffering from insecure renting etc are resentful.
But how many of those with massive amounts of unearned housing equity have become addicted to it and are now living in fear about losing some of it through price falls ?
I visualise the Waitrose Belt home owners now regarding their housing equity as Gollum did his 'preciousss'.
One of the great mysteries is how the tories came to abandon the policy of endless inflation of the housing bubble. It was a combination of the obsession with regulation after the Grenfell fire, lack of concern about rising interest rates, and disproportionate pandering to NIMBIES in certain constituencies in the south east.
They have abandoned it? Have I missed something?
It isn't an exaggeration to say that the current government are trying to destroy the housebuilding and construction industry. House price stagnation and falls is occurring right now and build costs continue to escalate so projects are just dying. The volume of planning applications going through the system is sharply falling. We are in a lag at the moment whilst the stuff that was in the system keeps working its way through it but - unless something major changes on the policy making front - I think there is a high chance that, in about 6 months time, we will see the start of a severe recession in the housebuilding/development industry.
Thanks. So the supply dries up? Won't do anything to reduce prices, though whether this is enough to stop a collapse in prices I dunno.
The problem is that, if inflation is 10% and prices of houses stay the same, then the value of housing as an asset is actually falling.
In December 2022, Reform UK proudly announced that Richard Langridge, who they claimed had been a a Tory on West Oxfordshire District Council, had jumped ship and would henceforth be standing for Reform. Langridge had had a 21% lead over his Labour rival in 2015, but had actually resigned in mid-term over a squabble about Local Plans and had stood in 2019 as an Independent - narrowly beating his Tory rival by 5% of the 2019 poll.
Langridge, in spite of Reform's press release, the stood in May 2023 as an Independent. And in a seat that had always returned a Tory or Langridge till this week, lost to the Greens by 11% of votes cast.
How many other deranged announcements from Farage's alcoholic cronies are just as based on completely vacuous substance?
The right to peaceful protest seems only to apply these days under certain circumstances.
Claims that Met are not saying why they are arresting people. If this is true, is it legal?
They shouldn't be telling anyone else why someone has been arrested (unless they are minded to and they have the explicit permission of the person arrested). But they must tell the person who has been arrested.
Have to say that the R&T and Curtice modelling feel odd to me. While they’ve probably got the Tories right, the share to Lib Dems and others seems quite overstated.
I get that they’re models - and actually the seat count for the LDs might be closer than the share prediction - but they just feel oddly dissonant to me. So many places - there are notable exceptions, but by far the rule - have seen the Tories get utterly smashed, and crucially the SNP are doing their level best to become as unappealing as possible.
Quite obviously the LDs and Greens do well at Locals compared to nationally, and certainly the LDs are strongly back in England now.
In a GE though I think the LD and Green votes will be down by half, with Labour getting most of the benefit, Labour being unobjectional if uninspiring.
Politics is interesting again, but confusing from an ideological point of view. .
The LDs did very well, but beyond a bit of residual pro EU vibes I have absolutely no idea what they stand for. There is nothing there beyond being anti Tory.
Labour have been rowing back from the Corbyn years, but are yet to galvanise their new vision. Nevertheless they have won convincingly.
The Tories seem stuck between waging a vicious culture war and the last vestiges compassionate conservatism, whilst trying to gather some remnants of competence from the ashes of Truss/Johnson. Total failure.
Even the Greens seem halfway between the radical far left and cosy middle class feel good environmentalism.
The Greens in Brighton was sub optimal I feel sure everyone breathed a sigh of relief when they were booted out.
Sussex as microcosm is especially interesting .
The big towns swung to Labour, a few miles away the more rural bit swung heavily to the Lib Dems. Just a few miles apart you see very different patterns.
The folk memory of who is the challenger seems to be decisive, but that is such an ephemeral thing.
Either way it seems centrism, social democracy and liberalism are firmly back in fashion after an age of extremes. The Tories need to remember their more moderate wing.
Either way we can be sure the results will confirm the pre-existing beliefs that people already had.
I suspect competence, exasperation and time for a change was a bigger factor than political ideology in almost all cases.
Whilst I’m delighted at the outcome, I am curious about the mechanism. How did people know which direction to jump to unseat the Tory? Not everyone was voting the last time tactical anti Tory voting dominated. It can’t all be folk memory, but yet somehow the perfect pattern emerged. Was it tactical voting websites? It’s not obvious when you think about it.
No it's really easy. You just go on any number of websites from electoral calculus to the bbc, type in your postcode, and see the results from last time.
Although I'm a newbie in Teignbridge it took me 5 seconds to work out that my Labour leanings wouldn't defeat the tories so I voted for 3 LibDems.
I will vote Labour at the GE because my Newton Abbot constituency is more Con-Lab marginal.
@Sean_F claimed yesterday that more LibDem voters will vote tory at the next GE than Labour. Of all the most fantastical posts on pb.com, that leads the way. Almost none of us who voted LibDem on Thursday will be placing our cross in a tory box thanks!
You say "it's really easy" - and then say that you think Newton Abbot is a Con-Lab marginal.
The same Newton Abbot that, prior to boundary changes, was a LibDem held seat, and which the LDs only missed winning on current boundaries by five hundred votes in 2010. And where the LibDems remain in second place, with the new boundaries only affecting the seat very marginally.
And you're someone who watches the political situation closely! What hope does the average person have if you haven't a clue?
Have to say that the R&T and Curtice modelling feel odd to me. While they’ve probably got the Tories right, the share to Lib Dems and others seems quite overstated.
I get that they’re models - and actually the seat count for the LDs might be closer than the share prediction - but they just feel oddly dissonant to me. So many places - there are notable exceptions, but by far the rule - have seen the Tories get utterly smashed, and crucially the SNP are doing their level best to become as unappealing as possible.
Quite obviously the LDs and Greens do well at Locals compared to nationally, and certainly the LDs are strongly back in England now.
In a GE though I think the LD and Green votes will be down by half, with Labour getting most of the benefit, Labour being unobjectional if uninspiring.
Politics is interesting again, but confusing from an ideological point of view. .
The LDs did very well, but beyond a bit of residual pro EU vibes I have absolutely no idea what they stand for. There is nothing there beyond being anti Tory.
Labour have been rowing back from the Corbyn years, but are yet to galvanise their new vision. Nevertheless they have won convincingly.
The Tories seem stuck between waging a vicious culture war and the last vestiges compassionate conservatism, whilst trying to gather some remnants of competence from the ashes of Truss/Johnson. Total failure.
Even the Greens seem halfway between the radical far left and cosy middle class feel good environmentalism.
The Greens in Brighton was sub optimal I feel sure everyone breathed a sigh of relief when they were booted out.
Sussex as microcosm is especially interesting .
The big towns swung to Labour, a few miles away the more rural bit swung heavily to the Lib Dems. Just a few miles apart you see very different patterns.
The folk memory of who is the challenger seems to be decisive, but that is such an ephemeral thing.
Either way it seems centrism, social democracy and liberalism are firmly back in fashion after an age of extremes. The Tories need to remember their more moderate wing.
Either way we can be sure the results will confirm the pre-existing beliefs that people already had.
I suspect competence, exasperation and time for a change was a bigger factor than political ideology in almost all cases.
Whilst I’m delighted at the outcome, I am curious about the mechanism. How did people know which direction to jump to unseat the Tory? Not everyone was voting the last time tactical anti Tory voting dominated. It can’t all be folk memory, but yet somehow the perfect pattern emerged. Was it tactical voting websites? It’s not obvious when you think about it.
No it's really easy. You just go on any number of websites from electoral calculus to the bbc, type in your postcode, and see the results from last time.
Although I'm a newbie in Teignbridge it took me 5 seconds to work out that my Labour leanings wouldn't defeat the tories so I voted for 3 LibDems.
I will vote Labour at the GE because my Newton Abbot constituency is more Con-Lab marginal.
@Sean_F claimed yesterday that more LibDem voters will vote tory at the next GE than Labour. Of all the most fantastical posts on pb.com, that leads the way. Almost none of us who voted LibDem on Thursday will be placing our cross in a tory box thanks!
Unlike you @Sean_F knows what he's talking about and his analysis is widely respected on here.
You just see your job to get up early to tub-thumb for your team.
I've not seen Sean Fear's post, but if it was as reported it does seem odd. I know LibDems who wouldn't touch Labour with a bargepole, but I don't actually know any who seem remotely tempted to vote Conservative. Indeed, a great many of the results yesterday were IMO at heart a "not the Tories again!" votes, rather than much positive enthusiasm for any of the other parties. It's a pity that politics is in such a negative space, but there is a large majority who are just tired of the Conservatives for now. It happens to us all, and happened to Labour in 2010 in much the same way.
Tactical voting does take work and explanation. I was involved in the count in two wards, one of which had vast amounts of canvassing and the other (for various family and health issues) didn't. The former (mine) had a significant majority of people voting for multi-member LLG candidates. The latter had very little - loads of LibDem and Labour voters just using one of their votes for their preferred party and ignoring the rest. Both won anyway as the Tory vote evaporated, but they were a both a bit lucky.
Tactical voting is far less complicated in a general election, I'd argue.
Yes much less. I was happy to vote Lib Dem or Labour and both have had MPs in this constituency in the past so I thought the best bet was to vote for the candidate who won the ward last time. I asked the official in the polling station and she didn't know so I took pot luck and voted Labour. That evening I got a call on my mobile from the Lib Dem candidate asking me if I'd voted yet. 'Yes' I said. 'Can I ask you who you voted for?'
Have to say that the R&T and Curtice modelling feel odd to me. While they’ve probably got the Tories right, the share to Lib Dems and others seems quite overstated.
I get that they’re models - and actually the seat count for the LDs might be closer than the share prediction - but they just feel oddly dissonant to me. So many places - there are notable exceptions, but by far the rule - have seen the Tories get utterly smashed, and crucially the SNP are doing their level best to become as unappealing as possible.
Quite obviously the LDs and Greens do well at Locals compared to nationally, and certainly the LDs are strongly back in England now.
In a GE though I think the LD and Green votes will be down by half, with Labour getting most of the benefit, Labour being unobjectional if uninspiring.
Politics is interesting again, but confusing from an ideological point of view. .
The LDs did very well, but beyond a bit of residual pro EU vibes I have absolutely no idea what they stand for. There is nothing there beyond being anti Tory.
Labour have been rowing back from the Corbyn years, but are yet to galvanise their new vision. Nevertheless they have won convincingly.
The Tories seem stuck between waging a vicious culture war and the last vestiges compassionate conservatism, whilst trying to gather some remnants of competence from the ashes of Truss/Johnson. Total failure.
Even the Greens seem halfway between the radical far left and cosy middle class feel good environmentalism.
The Greens in Brighton was sub optimal I feel sure everyone breathed a sigh of relief when they were booted out.
Sussex as microcosm is especially interesting .
The big towns swung to Labour, a few miles away the more rural bit swung heavily to the Lib Dems. Just a few miles apart you see very different patterns.
The folk memory of who is the challenger seems to be decisive, but that is such an ephemeral thing.
Either way it seems centrism, social democracy and liberalism are firmly back in fashion after an age of extremes. The Tories need to remember their more moderate wing.
Either way we can be sure the results will confirm the pre-existing beliefs that people already had.
I suspect competence, exasperation and time for a change was a bigger factor than political ideology in almost all cases.
Whilst I’m delighted at the outcome, I am curious about the mechanism. How did people know which direction to jump to unseat the Tory? Not everyone was voting the last time tactical anti Tory voting dominated. It can’t all be folk memory, but yet somehow the perfect pattern emerged. Was it tactical voting websites? It’s not obvious when you think about it.
No it's really easy. You just go on any number of websites from electoral calculus to the bbc, type in your postcode, and see the results from last time.
Although I'm a newbie in Teignbridge it took me 5 seconds to work out that my Labour leanings wouldn't defeat the tories so I voted for 3 LibDems.
I will vote Labour at the GE because my Newton Abbot constituency is more Con-Lab marginal.
@Sean_F claimed yesterday that more LibDem voters will vote tory at the next GE than Labour. Of all the most fantastical posts on pb.com, that leads the way. Almost none of us who voted LibDem on Thursday will be placing our cross in a tory box thanks!
Unlike you @Sean_F knows what he's talking about and his analysis is widely respected on here.
You just see your job to get up early to tub-thumb for your team.
I've not seen Sean Fear's post, but if it was as reported it does seem odd. I know LibDems who wouldn't touch Labour with a bargepole, but I don't actually know any who seem remotely tempted to vote Conservative. Indeed, a great many of the results yesterday were IMO at heart a "not the Tories again!" votes, rather than much positive enthusiasm for any of the other parties. It's a pity that politics is in such a negative space, but there is a large majority who are just tired of the Conservatives for now. It happens to us all, and happened to Labour in 2010 in much the same way.
Tactical voting does take work and explanation. I was involved in the count in two wards, one of which had vast amounts of canvassing and the other (for various family and health issues) didn't. The former (mine) had a significant majority of people voting for multi-member LLG candidates. The latter had very little - loads of LibDem and Labour voters just using one of their votes for their preferred party and ignoring the rest. Both won anyway as the Tory vote evaporated, but they were a both a bit lucky.
Someone has misquoted me. I said that a plurality of people who voted for independents and residents in local elections, will vote Conservative at the GE. People in Castle Point, or Maldon, Kings Lynn, or Clacton are not going to return independent MPs at the next election (and if they did, they'd be well to the right of the Conservatives).
I also said that some people (nowhere near a majority) who vote Lib Dem in local elections will vote Conservative at national level. That's obviously the case in places like Watford and Bushey.
And, most people who voted Green will vote either Labour or Lib Dem in the GE.
I think that's true to a large extent. However, I voted Independent on Thursday because it was my only choice other than the Tory candidates!
I see that the leader of Republic has been arrested, apparently for having a megaphone that could be "disruptive". This is exactly what I was worrying about, with the new laws that were passed the other day.
The neo-Tories get it wrong with their Trumpism again ; I doubt that this is even what Charles wants.
The right to peaceful protest seems only to apply these days under certain circumstances.
Put Suella Braverman in charge and this is the kind of thing that happens.
It’s been like this for a long time.
Very early in the New Labour times, the Chinese President visited. The police were given specific instructions to arrest and remove people carry any kind of protest sign about Tibet.
Have to say that the R&T and Curtice modelling feel odd to me. While they’ve probably got the Tories right, the share to Lib Dems and others seems quite overstated.
I get that they’re models - and actually the seat count for the LDs might be closer than the share prediction - but they just feel oddly dissonant to me. So many places - there are notable exceptions, but by far the rule - have seen the Tories get utterly smashed, and crucially the SNP are doing their level best to become as unappealing as possible.
Quite obviously the LDs and Greens do well at Locals compared to nationally, and certainly the LDs are strongly back in England now.
In a GE though I think the LD and Green votes will be down by half, with Labour getting most of the benefit, Labour being unobjectional if uninspiring.
Politics is interesting again, but confusing from an ideological point of view. .
The LDs did very well, but beyond a bit of residual pro EU vibes I have absolutely no idea what they stand for. There is nothing there beyond being anti Tory.
Labour have been rowing back from the Corbyn years, but are yet to galvanise their new vision. Nevertheless they have won convincingly.
The Tories seem stuck between waging a vicious culture war and the last vestiges compassionate conservatism, whilst trying to gather some remnants of competence from the ashes of Truss/Johnson. Total failure.
Even the Greens seem halfway between the radical far left and cosy middle class feel good environmentalism.
The Greens in Brighton was sub optimal I feel sure everyone breathed a sigh of relief when they were booted out.
Sussex as microcosm is especially interesting .
The big towns swung to Labour, a few miles away the more rural bit swung heavily to the Lib Dems. Just a few miles apart you see very different patterns.
The folk memory of who is the challenger seems to be decisive, but that is such an ephemeral thing.
Either way it seems centrism, social democracy and liberalism are firmly back in fashion after an age of extremes. The Tories need to remember their more moderate wing.
Either way we can be sure the results will confirm the pre-existing beliefs that people already had.
I suspect competence, exasperation and time for a change was a bigger factor than political ideology in almost all cases.
Whilst I’m delighted at the outcome, I am curious about the mechanism. How did people know which direction to jump to unseat the Tory? Not everyone was voting the last time tactical anti Tory voting dominated. It can’t all be folk memory, but yet somehow the perfect pattern emerged. Was it tactical voting websites? It’s not obvious when you think about it.
No it's really easy. You just go on any number of websites from electoral calculus to the bbc, type in your postcode, and see the results from last time.
Although I'm a newbie in Teignbridge it took me 5 seconds to work out that my Labour leanings wouldn't defeat the tories so I voted for 3 LibDems.
I will vote Labour at the GE because my Newton Abbot constituency is more Con-Lab marginal.
@Sean_F claimed yesterday that more LibDem voters will vote tory at the next GE than Labour. Of all the most fantastical posts on pb.com, that leads the way. Almost none of us who voted LibDem on Thursday will be placing our cross in a tory box thanks!
Unlike you @Sean_F knows what he's talking about and his analysis is widely respected on here.
You just see your job to get up early to tub-thumb for your team.
I've not seen Sean Fear's post, but if it was as reported it does seem odd. I know LibDems who wouldn't touch Labour with a bargepole, but I don't actually know any who seem remotely tempted to vote Conservative. Indeed, a great many of the results yesterday were IMO at heart a "not the Tories again!" votes, rather than much positive enthusiasm for any of the other parties. It's a pity that politics is in such a negative space, but there is a large majority who are just tired of the Conservatives for now. It happens to us all, and happened to Labour in 2010 in much the same way.
Tactical voting does take work and explanation. I was involved in the count in two wards, one of which had vast amounts of canvassing and the other (for various family and health issues) didn't. The former (mine) had a significant majority of people voting for multi-member LLG candidates. The latter had very little - loads of LibDem and Labour voters just using one of their votes for their preferred party and ignoring the rest. Both won anyway as the Tory vote evaporated, but they were a both a bit lucky.
Someone has misquoted me. I said that a plurality of people who voted for independents and residents in local elections, will vote Conservative at the GE. People in Castle Point, or Maldon, Kings Lynn, or Clacton are not going to return independent MPs at the next election (and if they did, they'd be well to the right of the Conservatives).
I also said that some people (nowhere near a majority) who vote Lib Dem in local elections will vote Conservative at national level. That's obviously the case in places like Watford and Bushey.
And, most people who voted Green will vote either Labour or Lib Dem in the GE.
I think that's true to a large extent. However, I voted Independent on Thursday because it was my only choice other than the Tory candidates!
With Indys you do really need to dig a bit into their background - much easier now in an online age.
On the island most of the indys are former LibDems or other moderates, but there is a handful who have jumped from UKIP or similar.
In December 2022, Reform UK proudly announced that Richard Langridge, who they claimed had been a a Tory on West Oxfordshire District Council, had jumped ship and would henceforth be standing for Reform. Langridge had had a 21% lead over his Labour rival in 2015, but had actually resigned in mid-term over a squabble about Local Plans and had stood in 2019 as an Independent - narrowly beating his Tory rival by 5% of the 2019 poll.
Langridge, in spite of Reform's press release, the stood in May 2023 as an Independent. And in a seat that had always returned a Tory or Langridge till this week, lost to the Greens by 11% of votes cast.
How many other deranged announcements from Farage's alcoholic cronies are just as based on completely vacuous substance?
(Insert joke about world’s most expensive escort here)
RS1600i was peak Mk.3. They obviously let the accountants nowhere near the development of that car as it had loads of unique parts including an aluminium cylinder head with solid tappets and a close ratio 5 speed box.
Someone has misquoted me. I said that a plurality of people who voted for independents and residents in local elections, will vote Conservative at the GE. People in Castle Point, or Maldon, Kings Lynn, or Clacton are not going to return independent MPs at the next election (and if they did, they'd be well to the right of the Conservatives).
I also said that some people (nowhere near a majority) who vote Lib Dem in local elections will vote Conservative at national level. That's obviously the case in places like Watford and Bushey.
And, most people who voted Green will vote either Labour or Lib Dem in the GE.
Brighton Council’s new Labour leader responds to Brighton’s Green MP:
Thanks for the congratulations. But your Party has been a disaster for our City. An unmitigated disaster. And they needed to be kindly shown the door. A relief for us all.
First majority Labour council in nearly a quarter of a century…
For once I agree with a Labour politician....
There has been some grumbling among the local Corbynista wing that she was imposed by the Starmer machine….which may be why they won so convincingly - although the Greens may have had some successes elsewhere Brighton was bloody and brutal.
Greens were a disaster for Brighton. It's an awful place to go to. I worked there for 25 yrs. Now I wouldn't go unless it was to the Theatre Royal but even that is long overdue for an complete refurbishment V Tacky now. Those who like Brighton can enjoy the 20mph speed limits and the appalling queues it brings. Dont get even a wheel in a bus lane or you will be ticketed Ghastly Anywhere but Brighton really.
Oh... and don't swin in the sea either... you might meet your ablutions. the beach is dangerous too so I am told..drug ephemera...
It’s interesting to note the disparity in reactions towards NickP and SeanT when both admitted paying whores for sex
Escorts, please.
Had my first escort in 1980.
She was blue and a real goer
Got rusty when wet
I thought they rusted when kept in clean, dry nitrogen, wrapped in plastic in the Mojave desert?
Ours certainly did. Bought a new Escort in 1984-ish, battery pan rusted inside a year, garage repainted it, rusted again 9 months later - out of warranty. Last Ford I ever bought.
I see that the leader of Republic has been arrested, apparently for having a megaphone that could be "disruptive". This is exactly what I was worrying about, with the new laws that were passed the other day.
The neo-Tories get it wrong with their Trumpism again ; I doubt that this is even what Charles wants.
I suspect that the King is horrified by the whole lot of them, but this is only the beginning. God alone knows what kind of venomous creature the rump Tory membership of ancient, reactionary golf club bores will elevate to be Leader of the Opposition if and when Sunak loses the next election.
In December 2022, Reform UK proudly announced that Richard Langridge, who they claimed had been a a Tory on West Oxfordshire District Council, had jumped ship and would henceforth be standing for Reform. Langridge had had a 21% lead over his Labour rival in 2015, but had actually resigned in mid-term over a squabble about Local Plans and had stood in 2019 as an Independent - narrowly beating his Tory rival by 5% of the 2019 poll.
Langridge, in spite of Reform's press release, the stood in May 2023 as an Independent. And in a seat that had always returned a Tory or Langridge till this week, lost to the Greens by 11% of votes cast.
How many other deranged announcements from Farage's alcoholic cronies are just as based on completely vacuous substance?
ReformUK are often ahead of the Greens in the national opinion polls.
It’s interesting to note the disparity in reactions towards NickP and SeanT when both admitted paying whores for sex
Escorts, please.
Had my first escort in 1980.
She was blue and a real goer
Got rusty when wet
I thought they rusted when kept in clean, dry nitrogen, wrapped in plastic in the Mojave desert?
Ours certainly did. Bought a new Escort in 1984-ish, battery pan rusted inside a year, garage repainted it, rusted again 9 months later - out of warranty. Last Ford I ever bought.
It’s interesting to note the disparity in reactions towards NickP and SeanT when both admitted paying whores for sex
Escorts, please.
Had my first escort in 1980.
She was blue and a real goer
Got rusty when wet
I thought they rusted when kept in clean, dry nitrogen, wrapped in plastic in the Mojave desert?
Ours certainly did. Bought a new Escort in 1984-ish, battery pan rusted inside a year, garage repainted it, rusted again 9 months later - out of warranty. Last Ford I ever bought.
My father had a bizarre affection for Citroens. They all rusted with gusto.
I wonder whether a childhood car memory is the cause of Elon Musks enthusiasm for stainless steel.
Great to see. We'll all need a sense of humour where we're going.
Where ARE we going exactly?
Personally I really have no idea anymore. One thing we can guarantee is that there will always be Coronations, certainty etc. I wonder if televising the Privy council meeting has removed some of the sense of relevance? A sense that this is really now just ceremonial? Like having a basic wedding where you sign the contract and then a party much later on?
Fortunately, today isn't all about the Coronation - we also have the first classic of the Flat racing season, the 2000 Guineas, at Newmarket, a course itself not without significant royal connection.
Aidan O'Brien has the front two in the market - AUGUSTE RODIN won the Vertem Futurity at Doncaster and has been favourite since the pre-season press day at Ballydoyle where he was the subject of very positive comment from O'Brien.
On ratings, he is 6 lbs behind his stable companion LITTLE BROWN BEAR but he hasn't been seen since demolishing his field in the Phoenix last August - that seven length romp was rated the best juvenile performance of 2022
The best of the locals is Dewhurst winner CHALDEAN but it all went wrong at Newbury a fortnight ago when the horse next to him cannoned into him and dislodged Frankie Dettori at the start.
ROYAL SCOTSMAN was second to CHALDEAN in the Dewhurst while there has been money for SILVER KNOTT who looks the Godolphin favoured. The Craven winner INDESTRUCTIBLE is a big price for a horse proven over trip and ground.
Where are the Stodge winnings from backing Labour to take control of Bracknell Forest going? It's hard not to take note of Aidan O'Brien who gets it far more often than any of us but at 7/4 I'd be a layer not a backer of the favourite. My two against the field would be ROYAL SCOTSMAN (on at 10s) and INDESTRUCTIBLE (backed each way at 25s).
In December 2022, Reform UK proudly announced that Richard Langridge, who they claimed had been a a Tory on West Oxfordshire District Council, had jumped ship and would henceforth be standing for Reform. Langridge had had a 21% lead over his Labour rival in 2015, but had actually resigned in mid-term over a squabble about Local Plans and had stood in 2019 as an Independent - narrowly beating his Tory rival by 5% of the 2019 poll.
Langridge, in spite of Reform's press release, the stood in May 2023 as an Independent. And in a seat that had always returned a Tory or Langridge till this week, lost to the Greens by 11% of votes cast.
How many other deranged announcements from Farage's alcoholic cronies are just as based on completely vacuous substance?
ReformUK are often ahead of the Greens in the national opinion polls.
And the 6% or there or thereabouts that both parties typically receive stand as testament to how hopelessly inaccurate and unreliable polling is.
Come the election the Greens will be doing very well to reach 3%. RefUK probably won't manage 0.5%.
In December 2022, Reform UK proudly announced that Richard Langridge, who they claimed had been a a Tory on West Oxfordshire District Council, had jumped ship and would henceforth be standing for Reform. Langridge had had a 21% lead over his Labour rival in 2015, but had actually resigned in mid-term over a squabble about Local Plans and had stood in 2019 as an Independent - narrowly beating his Tory rival by 5% of the 2019 poll.
Langridge, in spite of Reform's press release, the stood in May 2023 as an Independent. And in a seat that had always returned a Tory or Langridge till this week, lost to the Greens by 11% of votes cast.
How many other deranged announcements from Farage's alcoholic cronies are just as based on completely vacuous substance?
ReformUK are often ahead of the Greens in the national opinion polls.
And the 6% or there or thereabouts that both parties typically receive stand as testament to how hopelessly inaccurate and unreliable polling is.
Come the election the Greens will be doing very well to reach 3%. RefUK probably won't manage 0.5%.
There was a noticeable uptick for REFUK when Sunak became PM.
Would you let one reprobate disrupt the wedding or funeral or a loved one on the grounds of "free speech"? Or would you bundle them out so they didn't upset anyone?
Same goes for disruptive protestors at the Coronation.
I see that the leader of Republic has been arrested, apparently for having a megaphone that could be "disruptive". This is exactly what I was worrying about, with the new laws that were passed the other day.
The neo-Tories get it wrong with their Trumpism again ; I doubt that this is even what Charles wants.
Would you let one reprobate disrupt the wedding or funeral or a loved one on the grounds of "free speech"? Or would you bundle them out so they didn't upset anyone?
Same goes for disruptive protestors at the Coronation.
Er..this is a constitutional event, not a family wedding. People should be allowed to protest as and when they like, especially if there's no violence involved, and the actual event continues.
Would you let one reprobate disrupt the wedding or funeral or a loved one on the grounds of "free speech"? Or would you bundle them out so they didn't upset anyone?
Same goes for disruptive protestors at the Coronation.
It's amazing how they can keep the Kings Highway clear for the Coronation but all the rest of the plebs have to put up with nearly daily disruption...
Comments
Maldon, Kings Lynn, or Clacton are not going to return independent MPs at the next election (and if they did, they'd be well to the right of the Conservatives).
I also said that some people (nowhere near a majority) who vote Lib Dem in local elections will vote Conservative at national level. That's obviously the case in places like Watford and Bushey.
And, most people who voted Green will vote either Labour or Lib Dem in the GE.
Sadly, the best jokes do have some truth behind them. Hope my pilots today weren’t sitting with me in the bar an hour ago.
Will land back home in four-and-a-half hours, hope nothing important happens while I’m in the air!
(And by the “last time this happened”, I don’t mean Labour winning an election)
Well, here's a wee story.
In December 2022, Reform UK proudly announced that Richard Langridge, who they claimed had been a a Tory on West Oxfordshire District Council, had jumped ship and would henceforth be standing for Reform. Langridge had had a 21% lead over his Labour rival in 2015, but had actually resigned in mid-term over a squabble about Local Plans and had stood in 2019 as an Independent - narrowly beating his Tory rival by 5% of the 2019 poll.
Langridge, in spite of Reform's press release, the stood in May 2023 as an Independent. And in a seat that had always returned a Tory or Langridge till this week, lost to the Greens by 11% of votes cast.
How many other deranged announcements from Farage's alcoholic cronies are just as based on completely vacuous substance?
Even sellers of modern marital aids are patriots.
Of course just a coincidence but still lovely to see !
Then they went to Katy Perry, and my son shouted: "Katy Perry!", because he really likes some of her songs.
Well, it meant something to us...
Silly arresting the protestors (probably what they wanted). Whole country gets a push notification.
https://news.yahoo.com/we-will-keep-killing-russians-ukraines-military-intelligence-chief-vows-232156674.html
The same Newton Abbot that, prior to boundary changes, was a LibDem held seat, and which the LDs only missed winning on current boundaries by five hundred votes in 2010. And where the LibDems remain in second place, with the new boundaries only affecting the seat very marginally.
And you're someone who watches the political situation closely! What hope does the average person have if you haven't a clue?
I've been saying Hail Mary's ever since!
Anyone remember this one - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YD38SQ8srXw
My first commercial transaction was in Dieppe when I was 16 on a school trip. She had a FUPA like a bag of Blue Circle cement.
She was blue and a real goer
Got rusty when wet
Anti-monarchy campaign group Republic said its chief executive had been arrested along with five of his team.
It tweeted that Graham Smith and five other members of its team was arrested and "hundreds of placards were seized", adding: "Is this democracy?"
https://telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2023/05/06/king-charles-camilla-coronation-live-westminster-abbey/
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1654764757490999296?s=20
https://news.sky.com/story/princess-dianas-ford-escort-sells-at-auction-for-650-000-12683439
(Insert joke about world’s most expensive escort here)
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/05/06/world/coronation-king-charles-uk
The neo-Tories get it wrong with their Trumpism again ; I doubt that this is even what Charles wants.
Very early in the New Labour times, the Chinese President visited. The police were given specific instructions to arrest and remove people carry any kind of protest sign about Tibet.
Great to see. We'll all need a sense of humour where we're going.
On the island most of the indys are former LibDems or other moderates, but there is a handful who have jumped from UKIP or similar.
I thought the one in red tartan was Stuart Dickson.
Greens were a disaster for Brighton. It's
an awful place to go to. I worked there for 25 yrs. Now I wouldn't go unless it was to the Theatre Royal but even that is long overdue for an complete refurbishment
V Tacky now.
Those who like Brighton can enjoy the 20mph speed limits and the appalling queues it brings. Dont get even a wheel in a bus lane or you will be ticketed Ghastly Anywhere but Brighton really.
Oh... and don't swin in the sea either... you might meet your ablutions. the beach is dangerous too so I am told..drug ephemera...
This pic reminds me there is a lot to be said for quiet morning dress.
Official Royal Family youtube link, with no inane commentary.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=O8OslFp1B6g
I wonder whether a childhood car memory is the cause of Elon Musks enthusiasm for stainless steel.
Personally I really have no idea anymore. One thing we can guarantee is that there will always be Coronations, certainty etc. I wonder if televising the Privy council meeting has removed some of the sense of relevance? A sense that this is really now just ceremonial? Like having a basic wedding where you sign the contract and then a party much later on?
Fortunately, today isn't all about the Coronation - we also have the first classic of the Flat racing season, the 2000 Guineas, at Newmarket, a course itself not without significant royal connection.
Aidan O'Brien has the front two in the market - AUGUSTE RODIN won the Vertem Futurity at Doncaster and has been favourite since the pre-season press day at Ballydoyle where he was the subject of very positive comment from O'Brien.
On ratings, he is 6 lbs behind his stable companion LITTLE BROWN BEAR but he hasn't been seen since demolishing his field in the Phoenix last August - that seven length romp was rated the best juvenile performance of 2022
The best of the locals is Dewhurst winner CHALDEAN but it all went wrong at Newbury a fortnight ago when the horse next to him cannoned into him and dislodged Frankie Dettori at the start.
ROYAL SCOTSMAN was second to CHALDEAN in the Dewhurst while there has been money for SILVER KNOTT who looks the Godolphin favoured. The Craven winner INDESTRUCTIBLE is a big price for a horse proven over trip and ground.
Where are the Stodge winnings from backing Labour to take control of Bracknell Forest going? It's hard not to take note of Aidan O'Brien who gets it far more often than any of us but at 7/4 I'd be a layer not a backer of the favourite. My two against the field would be ROYAL SCOTSMAN (on at 10s) and INDESTRUCTIBLE (backed each way at 25s).
Come the election the Greens will be doing very well to reach 3%. RefUK probably won't manage 0.5%.
Is it over yet?
Same goes for disruptive protestors at the Coronation.