It’s very rare indeed for any polling company to admit to making an error that has skewed a published poll. So rare indeed that we might speculate that whenever a polling company itself discovered an error in the past, the company concerned kept quiet and hoped that no-one else had noticed other than to assume that any unusually rogue result was down to sampling error or the like. Better to keep quiet than to suffer reputational damage by admitting an error, so the polling company might reason.
Taking this R&W poll, and assuming it manifests itself as the SNP dropping 10% in 2024 in every constituency, with that 10% lumped onto whoever is in second place.
You know what happens?
Of the 57 seats in Scotland, the SNP would win only 9 (!) The Labour Party ends up on 32, with the Conservatives managing 10 and LDs 6.
Now, I suspect it won't be quite so severe. But even a situation where the SNP loses 5 points and the second placed party picks them up, then you still see the Labour Party gaining 15 or so seats.
Indeed, if one’s digs deeply into who and what R&W actually is, one becomes deeply concerned. For example, late last year R&W published a poll showing a majority for Scottish independence. Needless to say, the British Nationalist community were not happy bunnies. Here is one of them dissing the pollster:
Is that the poll done with actuarial precision by the top notch firm,Redfield&Wilton Strategies…2employees,Director Bruno Augusto Kormann Rodrigues,no office ,assets of £846 &exempt from audit.Those polling experts??Nats.You’re having a laugh,surely?
She’s got a point!
Who is paying for this shadowy organisation and its work? No client name is published. A characteristic it shares with other pollsters: Omnisis, Techne, Deltapoll, Savanta and BMG who have all recently published polls with no client name provided. Fundamentally dodgy IMHO.
Polls published by political parties are (quite rightly) routinely excluded from tables of poll results. I cannot recall a Swedish opinion poll ever being published without the name of the client clearly stated in reporting. So why do we routinely accept the findings of these polls with mystery funding? It could be the Russian or Chinese state behind them. Or the British state. Or Tufton Street. It could be somebody with no qualifications in the required mathematical and statistical skills (Bruno Augusto Kormann Rodrigues is a solicitor it seems). We deserve to know.
And then we must consider confirmation bias. If the error had been in the other direction, would a PB header be screaming about it? Er… we all know the answer to that question.
1. Possibility of some issue with the poll weighting, as speculated/calculated by Wulfrun Phil. Will be interesting to see IF Redfield and Wilton respond, and if so, how?
2. In addition, or substitution, is issue of actual decline in SNP support to the advantage of SLAB. Not inconceivable, to put it mildly, that Nicola Sturgeon's retirement (one way of looking at it, I guess) and ongoing SNP leadership contest have resulted in just this result: voters switching - at least for the moment, snapshot in time & all that - from Scottish Nationals to Scottish Labour.
One factor that has aided SNP's electoral success, has clearly been the party's strong leadership under its Kingfish and then Queenfish, as contrasted with SLABs lack of same since the sad, premature demise of Donald Dewar. Right now this is up in the air. Hard to think this is NOT a factor?
Unionists really are a bit weird. Instead of working to make the Union less unpopular, they prefer to comfort themselves with entire fantasy worlds that only exist inside their own heads. Long may that continue!
Devolution (the status quo) 38%
Direct rule (the status quo ante) 8%
Now, ask yourself, did you see that finding published anywhere? No? You shock me!
I wonder why?
Actually, we all know why.
And we all know why PB is publishing this particular piece of sterling investigative journalism. In the service of punters. Because this blog and this investigative journalist have no agenda. No siree!
As former where well-known for, back in the salad (or smorgasbord) days of my sadly un-misspent youth . . .
This is from 10 months ago (YG)
This from R&W:
Scottish voters have always cared about big “normal” political issues. It is just that to improve the economy, housing, transport etc we need to govern our own country.
It’s the book version of that great Ken Burns documentary
One detail has struck me: re the intensity of the US bombing of the Ho Chi Minh trail (in terms of density more bombs were dropped on these jungle tracks than in any war before)
Sometimes the US soldiers would come across an entire platoon of viet cong, all dead, in a jungle clearing, and apparently all unharmed. Except that the concussive power of the explosions had blasted the eyeballs out of all the Vietnamese heads
That must be one of the most horrific battlefield images in human history. Just thought I’d share it with you over breakfast
“Given the Conservatives has wrecked the NHS, the BBC and filled the nations water with shit, it does beg the question, what were they trying to conserve?”
The answer seems obvious to me;
It’s the only thing the Conservative party, as an institution, really cares about. The only interest that binds them together. Everything else comes and goes with different leaders, electoral strategies or ideological trends.
The only thing they really stand for, when all is said and done, is the conservation of wealth.
The NHS was mediocre anyway and was fucked even more by lockdowns which Labour wanted to go on LONGER than the Tories
The shit in the rivers I cannot dispute
Like, is there the democratic will to double everyone’s water bill for the next twenty years to actually fix the problem?
I suspect not.
I’m saying this is the BBC’s highest paid star jeopardising the BBC’s role as impartial national broadcaster because he is a self adoring liberal twat who is addicted to the adulation of Twitter
If - when - the BBC is perceived to be seriously biased in party politics it is finished. The license fee then becomes unsustainable. Lineker is too vain and foolish to see the damage he is doing
Find a bloke in a pub? Play patriotic music?
How they will be loving this in Moscow and Beijing.
Can't help but feel the forecast of -9C feeling like -15C is wrong. I wasn't out for long but doesn't feel that bad at all.
I guess it’s possible. Who can forget Nikita Kruschev’s anger at the UN when Barry Davies was chosen to commentate the Charity Shield
We pump and drain far too much shit into them, for a first world country, and far too many of them are "private" and totally inaccessible to people.
I'd say there's also a problem with lack of access for bathing/swimming, which I'd love. But the problem with that is that if you get too many feral chavs and their dogs going there that's just as bad and will introduce all sorts of nasty chemical and bodily pollution back into the rivers, as well as tonnes of litter.
It shouldn't be that hard. The issue is the timescale.
Britain is upping the amount of cash it pays France to deter migrants from crossing the Channel - but Britons are split on the principle of paying France to prevent small boat crossings
All Britons: 39% support / 42% oppose
Con voters: 43% / 48%
Clarke-Smith has his arse handed to him on Newsnight.
“When you’re making comparisons with 1930s Germany I think you’re starting to let yourself down,” says Brendan Clarke-Smith on @GaryLineker, the same Tory MP who compared England’s players taking the knee to the 1938 England team “making the Nazi salute” in Berlin … #Newsnight
Perhaps independence is to a substantial fraction of the Scottish electorate as chastity was to St Augustine...?
Get rid of them and save the money.
As I said at the time.
While explaining that this is how 'challenge' should work:
...The presenter (Bruce, on Question Time) had interrupted while a panel member was describing the father of Boris Johnson as a “wife-beater”, explaining that his friends had stated he attacked his wife but it was “a one-off”...
Is there any chance we could find something left wing tweeted by John Virgo and Mark Nicholas as well?
I don't actually have that much of a problem with Hancock's messages being leaked - he's an idiot who set himself up. But it's only a very select sample being published by a newspaper with an agenda.
Matt Hancock’s leaked messages being ‘used to rewrite history’, say civil servants
Some advisers and civil servants speaking to the Guardian say an ‘anti-lockdown filter’ has been placed on events
Nothing wrong with making an argument against lockdown - but distorting the facts to do so, not so much.
Directly comparable to Musk's 'Twitter files' release to a selected journalist with an agenda.
Perhaps Leon and Kinabalu can, as a sort of left-right double act, chummily patching up their differences as they mull over the football.
Rather too much of MRD about it to be worthy of your multiple exclamation marks.
It's not as though they were going to say that they dropped it fir fear if offending the government if that really were the case.
(your reminder that the problem with the sewers isn't the amount of poo but the fact they also take rainwater run-off, and don't have enough capacity for the latter).
One hates to think what the English countryside and coast is going to look like in two decades time. Cos one thing is rock solid certain: the Labour Party aren’t going to solve the problem either.
A documentary about 1960s politics - or the Channel Islands ?
The SNP have no clue what to do either other than to bleat (falsely) that it’s a reserved matter so they can’t do anything.
Unfortunately, it is because the solutions are possibly going to be even more unpopular than the problem.
With the honourable exception of Alan McManus whom I’ve always found very good, and the late Richie Benaud.
Who would have thought our humble striker would become such a political star.
...Driven by the boom in venture capital funding, many of Silicon Valley’s customers became flush with cash over 2020 and 2021. Between the end of 2019 and the first quarter of 2022, the bank’s deposit balances more than tripled to $198 billion (including a small acquisition of Boston Private Financial Holdings). This compares with industry deposit growth of “only” 37% over the period. Around two-thirds of the deposits were non-interest-bearing demand deposits and the rest offered a small rate of interest. All-in, at the end of 2022, the cost of Silicon Valley’s deposits was 1.17% (up from 0.04% at the end of 2021).
The bank invested the bulk of these deposits in securities. It adopted a two-pronged strategy: to shelter some of its liquidity in shorter duration available-for-sale securities, while reaching for yield with a longer duration held-to-maturity book. On a cost basis, the shorter duration AFS book grew from $13.9 billion at the end of 2019 to $27.3 billion at its peak in the first quarter of 2022; the longer duration HTM book grew by much more: from $13.8 billion to $98.7 billion. Part of the increase reflects a transfer of $8.8 billion of securities from AFS to HTM, but most reflected market purchases...
Note Trump's abolition of the requirement for bank 'stress tests' probably didn't help.
(*they do occasionally change methodology of course, so not always valid)
Mr. Sandpit, many commentators seem to forget people are there for sport rather than their witty presence.
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East
Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
Dumfries and Galloway
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
But SVB is exceptional in the extraordinary growth in its assets, and particularly those declared 'Held to Maturity'. The potential shortfall in value, if that designation came under challenge, doesn't seem to have been considered.
It's just a wrinkle in the usual problem of borrowing short term (via deposits) and lending longer term (by bond purchases which are locked in by the HTM designation).
Even then, it might not have failed, had it better handled its attempt at fundraising to shore up the balance sheet. That was what destroyed confidence and started the run.