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Truss quits – politicalbetting.com

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  • DougSeal said:

    Confirmed: Johnson flying back for coronation. Told you.

    The others will struggle to get any momentum.

    image
    When did you get that blow to the head? I am sure you can get physiotherapy for such trauma.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Declared Boris support

    Duddridge
    Patel
    Fabricant
    Clarke-Smith
    Dorries.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Sounds like we’ll get the formal rules of the leadership contest around 5:30pm. 1922 executive and Conservative Party board will agree this afternoon.

    https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1583110226672488448
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Selebian said:

    I actually stand to make some money (from an old bet) if Johnson is leader on 1 January 2023 :lol:

    (ended up all green on that market, after trading, so not much, but Johnson is my best result on that)

    Me too! - Johnson leader at next GE bet from ages ago.

    Would be one sheepish win.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625

    Off-topic:

    Re. the potential cable-cutting. It can be argued that one of the first acts Britain committed during World War One won the war (eventually). Within the first few weeks of the war, we cut all but one of Germany's marine cables (and we had access to that one).

    This severely hampered German international communications throughout the war, and aided our signals intelligence. Then in 1917 it allowed the infamous Zimmerman Telegram to be intercepted, which helped bring the US into the war.

    Cutting cables nowadays would not have the same effect; but it may prove absolutely awful for trade.

    Good for Elon Musk though...

    What state is OneWeb in at the moment?
    Early operational testing - service has gaps until the last satellites are launched.

    Interestingly, the missing satellites (stuck in Russia) will be launched by SpaceX. Yes, they are being launched by their direct competitor. Given the way the launch business usually works, finding a ride would have taken multiple years. Only SpaceX has the capability to do large launches at a couple of months notice.

    Reasons for the SpaceX being helpful include

    - having a competitor is actually good for them. Accusations of monopoly.
    - Launching a direct rivals service protects them against charges of being anti-competitive.. using the SpaceX price advantage only for Starlink could be viewed that way. This contract makes SpaceX legally fireproof on such charges.
    - The space industry have a history of helping rivals out. You never know when it is your turn
    - As a result of launch contract various mutual lawsuits have gone away.
    On the other hand, they've been very uncompetitive with their rideshare program, and killed off the market leaders (who created the market in the first place).

    Also, do we really want comms in the hands of Musk? For years I compared him with Brunel, positively. I was wrong. Musk is not the modern-day Brunel.

    He is the modern-day Henry Ford. Except worse...
    Merely offering a cheaper product isn’t anti-competitive. The marginal cost of F9 launches is said to be in the order of $15 million now. Maybe less.

    As to a monopoly on LEO comms - he’s helped out OneWeb, allowing them to get in service something like on time.
    It's not about offering the service cheaper - it's about the fact they stopped working with the concept originator Spaceflight. (Yes, that is a terrible name for a space company, as it makes searches nearly impossible...)
    There were serious problems with them. Not doing due diligence and safety checks on some of the cube sats to the point of endangering the launcher.

    Given that launcher reliability is a key selling point, it’s not hard to see why SpaceX gave them the boot.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Wonder who paid for Johnson’s Dominican holiday. Get on it media!!!
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911

    Boris with a chastened and disciplined party could be the Goldilocks scenario for the Tories.

    LOL. Boris Johnson chastened and disciplined. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
    I said the party, not him. They'd be much less likely to undermine him having been through the experience of the last two months.
    Johnson undermined himself with his laziness and his lies and corruption. He didn't need any help from the party. He won't change. He has never learnt from all his previous sackings and embarrassments He has lived his entire life doing just as he pleases and lying his way out of tight spots.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,861
    Driver said:

    alex_ said:

    Anyone who thinks Boris is the answer needs to look at the polling and by-election results just before he was ousted, the laziness and disfunctionality in government and the corruption/public misconduct scandals. It'd be more of the same all the way to the election.

    I won't be part of the Conservative Party any longer if we go back to that.

    If the membership are allowed a vote and he is in the last two then you wont be going back to the party.
    I’m sorry, they’ve said it will be over in a week. How can we possibly be thinking that “over in a week” and “members vote” can possibly go together???

    Shortlist of two by Monday evening. Online vote for 48 hours.
    An online vote organised by the 1922 Committee -> Expect 1.8 million votes for the worst candidate coming from a Russian IP address
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,094
    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Anne Saccoolas pleads guilty to causing death of Harry Dunn.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-63328168

    Someone has compromised. Causing death by Careless Driving is the cotton-batting offence that that dangerous drivers' lawyers negotiate down to to try and avoid a prison sentence.




    The classic penalty for anyone who smashes a cyclist off the road and kills them. Usually a ridiculously short driving ban.
    We'll see what the sentence is.

    Saccoolas' offence was to drive 350m on the wrong side of the road where there are no hills or obstructions, then killing a person on a motorbike, who was on the correct side of the road, by hitting him head on with her car.

    The definitions of causing death by careless / reckless / dangerous driving are a sick joke.
  • Looks like I chose the wrong time to drop off the grid and get rid of Sky and the TV licence. Still, it's Red Bull Rampage this weekend, and that's much more interesting than when I used to be into politics!
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,785
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Off thread - this board has been kind enough to indulge me over recent months in my rantings about the 11+, which my middle daughter is going through: we've just had the results, and although she just missed out for our local grammar school, she has passed the pass mark for our second closest (which is still just over a mile away and which we are within catchment for). So all being well she will be going there. She has worked uncomplainingly and astonishingly hard to achieve this (despite the handicap of dyslexia) and I am so bloody proud of her.

    Many congrats sir. And a relief no doubt.

    I'm slightly bemused that kids are still going through this. How many counties still have grammars?

    Finger in the air - about a sixth. In the North West it's Trafford, Wirral and Lancashire.

    The 11+ messaging boards are slightly frightening places. I've recently become aware of the phenomenon of 11+ tourists, who take ALL the exams in the country and then move to wherever their children pass.
    If I talk Calderdale, where there is an explicitly ranked system, there are 360 grammar places across 2 schools and the average admission depth is about 450.

    But there are plenty who double up by taking 11+s in neighbouring areas (Kirklees/Calderdale and some N.Yorks/Calderdale) and school buses serve those overlaps. And numerous who come in from private prep schools, or double apply to private secondaries as well.

    I think that is likely to account for many of the 90 missing kids, so I suspect full on tourists are rare and extreme.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 4,748
    edited October 2022
    MattW said:

    Anne Saccoolas pleads guilty to causing death of Harry Dunn.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-63328168

    Someone has compromised. Causing death by Careless Driving is the cotton-batting offence that that dangerous drivers' lawyers negotiate down to to try and avoid a prison sentence.




    Death by careless driving is what it is though. She drove on the wrong side of the road because she was in a foreign country and the poor guy was in the wrong place at the wrong time. Unfortunately I think many people have found themselves driving on the wrong side of the road. She also stopped at the scene and co-operated with the authorities. There is just no point in sending people in this situation to jail in order to try and quench some thirst for vengeance. If people are drunk/ on drugs and significantly exceeding the speed limit then they are more culpable and some kind of punishment is needed. But it is better to think of other ways to stop this from happening than pursuing the very hypothetical threat of incarceration in the million to one chance that you end up killing someone.

    One of the most idiotic policies from the Johnson administration was the obsession to quench populist desires by sending people to jail. He kept doing this even though he knew that the costs of incarceration through long jail sentences were going to be borne by future generations. It is justified for people like Wayne Couzens but these are truly exceptional cases. You can't build a productive political movement based on policies like this.

    Edit - I am a cyclist and have a motorbike and see dangerous drivers all the time, I just don't think this case is that bad compared to many of the idiots on the road. I'd rather see improvements in road policing, than longer jail sentences when things go wrong.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,997
    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Anne Saccoolas pleads guilty to causing death of Harry Dunn.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-63328168

    Someone has compromised. Causing death by Careless Driving is the cotton-batting offence that that dangerous drivers' lawyers negotiate down to to try and avoid a prison sentence.




    The classic penalty for anyone who smashes a cyclist off the road and kills them. Usually a ridiculously short driving ban.
    We'll see what the sentence is.

    Saccoolas' offence was to drive 350m on the wrong side of the road where there are no hills or obstructions, then killing a person on a motorbike, who was on the correct side of the road, by hitting him head on with her car.

    The definitions of causing death by careless / reckless / dangerous driving are a sick joke.
    If it's such a long, straight road, surely they had time to see each other
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,520

    Off-topic:

    Re. the potential cable-cutting. It can be argued that one of the first acts Britain committed during World War One won the war (eventually). Within the first few weeks of the war, we cut all but one of Germany's marine cables (and we had access to that one).

    This severely hampered German international communications throughout the war, and aided our signals intelligence. Then in 1917 it allowed the infamous Zimmerman Telegram to be intercepted, which helped bring the US into the war.

    Cutting cables nowadays would not have the same effect; but it may prove absolutely awful for trade.

    Good for Elon Musk though...

    What state is OneWeb in at the moment?
    Early operational testing - service has gaps until the last satellites are launched.

    Interestingly, the missing satellites (stuck in Russia) will be launched by SpaceX. Yes, they are being launched by their direct competitor. Given the way the launch business usually works, finding a ride would have taken multiple years. Only SpaceX has the capability to do large launches at a couple of months notice.

    Reasons for the SpaceX being helpful include

    - having a competitor is actually good for them. Accusations of monopoly.
    - Launching a direct rivals service protects them against charges of being anti-competitive.. using the SpaceX price advantage only for Starlink could be viewed that way. This contract makes SpaceX legally fireproof on such charges.
    - The space industry have a history of helping rivals out. You never know when it is your turn
    - As a result of launch contract various mutual lawsuits have gone away.
    On the other hand, they've been very uncompetitive with their rideshare program, and killed off the market leaders (who created the market in the first place).

    Also, do we really want comms in the hands of Musk? For years I compared him with Brunel, positively. I was wrong. Musk is not the modern-day Brunel.

    He is the modern-day Henry Ford. Except worse...
    Merely offering a cheaper product isn’t anti-competitive. The marginal cost of F9 launches is said to be in the order of $15 million now. Maybe less.

    As to a monopoly on LEO comms - he’s helped out OneWeb, allowing them to get in service something like on time.
    It's not about offering the service cheaper - it's about the fact they stopped working with the concept originator Spaceflight. (Yes, that is a terrible name for a space company, as it makes searches nearly impossible...)
    There were serious problems with them. Not doing due diligence and safety checks on some of the cube sats to the point of endangering the launcher.

    Given that launcher reliability is a key selling point, it’s not hard to see why SpaceX gave them the boot.
    Hmmm. That depends on whether you believe SpaceX or not. It was a handy 'excuse' to get rid of them when they wanted that market for themselves. And it is an important market for a variety of reasons - and one that SpaceX now largely controls.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Pulpstar said:

    Declared Boris support

    Duddridge
    Patel
    Fabricant
    Clarke-Smith
    Dorries.

    Andrew Stephenson
This discussion has been closed.