Starmer arguing that Labour would be a stable government. I think they will be anything but when they realise what decisions they would have to make. The internal far-left vs centre-left divisions have not been resolved. They will tear themselves apart.
We're back to hypothetical chaos of a future Labour government vs the tangible, there for all to see chaos of the current actual government.
I think I agree on the general point - that people are projecting on Starmer that he is safe pair of hands etc. it is entirely possible that he is another car crash.
Irrelevant for politics and betting - the reality is that all he has to do is *nothing* until the next election.
To win, yes. But to be able to do anything after he wins?
Starmer arguing that Labour would be a stable government. I think they will be anything but when they realise what decisions they would have to make. The internal far-left vs centre-left divisions have not been resolved. They will tear themselves apart.
We're back to hypothetical chaos of a future Labour government vs the tangible, there for all to see chaos of the current actual government.
Any of the likely candidates more equivocal on Russia and support for Ukraine? I've not noticed much difference between them on this but if there is a slightly more Russia-friendly candidate expect to see the pages of OAP facebook flooded with newly formed stan accounts for whoever that person is.
If Sunak wins and Hunt stays as Chancellor this is going to cause uproar with many Tory members/voters.
Why? If Sunak wins he appoints his Chancellor. If you don't want that, vote for Penny.
Or resign as a member.
(The irony is, as my direct debit won't have cancelled by the time of the vote, I effectively have a free vote! PM4PM.....)
I suspect that Hunt will stay as Chancellor whether Sunak or Mordaunt wins. My point is that Sunak/Hunt will be particularly toxic for some members. Mordaunt/Hunt less so.
Ha. I went to back Boris Johnson at 11 on Ladbrokes. The odds fell to 7 when I logged on, and when I boosted the odds they became 5.25. Ahem.
Edited extra bit: can't complain, got very lucky with 46 on Truss going this year and Hunt becoming next leader (laid him to be next PM at a bizarrely short 4).
Just logged back in to say... people keep going on about this being 'chaos', but I'm not so sure. The fact is that she was not up to the job and she got forced to resign and it was all over and done with in a few weeks. It is actually pretty impressive when you compare it to how long Corbyn hung around in the Labour Party.. I'm not sure a General Election would resolve things either, we could well go in to a hung parliament and a stalemate whilst all this chaos is going on, with the SNP holding the country to ransom over the abolition of Trident or whatever. At the moment, we just need someone to carry out the business of managing the country, hopefully the tories will be up to it and not destroy themselves again in the process....
I agree that there is not chaos (except at the top of the Tory Party).
There is enormous inertia in the British political system. Things carrying on running.
Sir Humphrey: Government isn't about morality.
Hacker: Really? What is it about then?
Sir Humphrey: Stability. Keeping thing going. Preventing anarchy. Stopping society falling to bits. Still being here tomorrow.
The British system is really very good at "still being here tomorrow".
The Poundshop Churchill and the Poundshop Thatcher have both not quite turned out to be value for money.
Boris delivered Brexit, Truss delivered the abolition of the Health and Social Care Levy.
Lets have a new PM every 4 months who can deliver one thing each.
They both delivered chaos. That is something that I think it is fair for an electorate to expect not to happen in a mature democracy. Anyone that makes excuses for either is a fuckwit.
You say that as if its a bad thing.
Chaos is a part of creative destruction and allows evolution and progress.
Stagnation is not a good thing.
Tell that to the poor sods in Ukraine.
The trouble with evolution is that, whilst it leads to progress for the species, it's pretty rubbish for most of the individuals in that species, because they die prematurely. (They have to, or there's no selection pressure.) And the rate of death continues even as the species becomes better adapted- it's just that the margins of success and failure become ever more random and trivial.
Not just skeletons all the way down, but skeletons to the left and right as far as the eye can see.
Which is why I'm not a total anarchist. I believe that people should be allowed to fail, with a safety net, pick themselves up and rebuild.
But preventing failures, prevents opportunities, entrenches existing divides and leads to stagnation.
Failure has to be accepted as part of a healthy society. Why do we fall? To pick ourselves back up again.
For some years I have argued that American politicians are judged too much by how well they speak, and too little by how well they listen.
Correct me if I am wrong on this, but it appears from this great distance that Prime Minister Truss did not listen to those who could have told her that -- regardless of the merits of her policies -- it would not be possible to sell them to the public. Or, possibly, even to a majority in the House of Commons.
If this simple analysis is bascially correct, was ths character flaw obvious before she reached the top?
The Poundshop Churchill and the Poundshop Thatcher have both not quite turned out to be value for money.
Boris delivered Brexit, Truss delivered the abolition of the Health and Social Care Levy.
Lets have a new PM every 4 months who can deliver one thing each.
They both delivered chaos. That is something that I think it is fair for an electorate to expect not to happen in a mature democracy. Anyone that makes excuses for either is a fuckwit.
You say that as if its a bad thing.
Chaos is a part of creative destruction and allows evolution and progress.
Stagnation is not a good thing.
Tell that to the poor sods in Ukraine.
The trouble with evolution is that, whilst it leads to progress for the species, it's pretty rubbish for most of the individuals in that species, because they die prematurely. (They have to, or there's no selection pressure.) And the rate of death continues even as the species becomes better adapted- it's just that the margins of success and failure become ever more random and trivial.
Not just skeletons all the way down, but skeletons to the left and right as far as the eye can see.
Ah, the old classic comes to mind: J. B. S. Haldane, The cost of natural selection. Journal of Genetics volume 55, pages 511–524 (1957),
'Unless selection is very intense, the number of deaths needed to secure the substitution, by natural selection, of one gene for another at a locus, is independent of the intensity of selection. It is often about 30 times the number of organisms in a generation. [...]'
For some years I have argued that American politicians are judged too much by how well they speak, and too little by how well they listen.
Correct me if I am wrong on this, but it appears from this great distance that Prime Minister Truss did not listen to those who could have told her that -- regardless of the merits of her policies -- it would not be possible to sell them to the public. Or, possibly, even to a majority in the House of Commons.
If this simple analysis is bascially correct, was ths character flaw obvious before she reached the top?
Some said it was. A solid but unspectacular Cabinet career did not make it obvious to all of us.
FFS. Mordaunt or Badenoch. Are the Tories actually incapable of finding normally competent leaders, who can cobble together a somewhat coherent policy?
Boris resolves the inevitable democratic mandate problem….
Which would be offset by having someone returned to office who was demonstrated to be fundamentally dishonest and unfit for high office and was removed from office because of it. It would be ludicrous.
MPs might want to recall they threw him out because he treated them like mushrooms, keeping them in the dark and feeding him shit. Not to mention the electorate will not be pleased with his constant COVID restriction-breaking ways (nice attack line for Labour).
Boris resolves the inevitable democratic mandate problem….
Which would be offset by having someone returned to office who was demonstrated to be fundamentally dishonest and unfit for high office and was removed from office because of it. It would be ludicrous.
He would have the chutzpah to call an immediate general election when Labour clearly aren't ready for it. Not sure any of the others would.
Boris resolves the inevitable democratic mandate problem….
Which would be offset by having someone returned to office who was demonstrated to be fundamentally dishonest and unfit for high office and was removed from office because of it. It would be ludicrous.
I hope to god that having “taken soundings” he realised he’d lose, and doesn’t stand. I hope that enough MPs remember the whole reason why we are in this mess.
Boris resolves the inevitable democratic mandate problem….
Which would be offset by having someone returned to office who was demonstrated to be fundamentally dishonest and unfit for high office and was removed from office because of it. It would be ludicrous.
He would have the chutzpah to call an immediate general election when Labour clearly aren't ready for it. Not sure any of the others would.
What a naive post. a) He wouldn't b) Labour would be ready, so bring it on.
On second thoughts I'm not touching that. The whole thing has just become insane, I've got no idea what's going to happen next. I'm going to stay out of this market ...
Re. the potential cable-cutting. It can be argued that one of the first acts Britain committed during World War One won the war (eventually). Within the first few weeks of the war, we cut all but one of Germany's marine cables (and we had access to that one).
This severely hampered German international communications throughout the war, and aided our signals intelligence. Then in 1917 it allowed the infamous Zimmerman Telegram to be intercepted, which helped bring the US into the war.
Cutting cables nowadays would not have the same effect; but it may prove absolutely awful for trade.
Good for Elon Musk though...
What state is OneWeb in at the moment?
Early operational testing - service has gaps until the last satellites are launched.
Interestingly, the missing satellites (stuck in Russia) will be launched by SpaceX. Yes, they are being launched by their direct competitor. Given the way the launch business usually works, finding a ride would have taken multiple years. Only SpaceX has the capability to do large launches at a couple of months notice.
Reasons for the SpaceX being helpful include
- having a competitor is actually good for them. Accusations of monopoly. - Launching a direct rivals service protects them against charges of being anti-competitive.. using the SpaceX price advantage only for Starlink could be viewed that way. This contract makes SpaceX legally fireproof on such charges. - The space industry have a history of helping rivals out. You never know when it is your turn - As a result of launch contract various mutual lawsuits have gone away.
On the other hand, they've been very uncompetitive with their rideshare program, and killed off the market leaders (who created the market in the first place).
Also, do we really want comms in the hands of Musk? For years I compared him with Brunel, positively. I was wrong. Musk is not the modern-day Brunel.
Boris resolves the inevitable democratic mandate problem….
Which would be offset by having someone returned to office who was demonstrated to be fundamentally dishonest and unfit for high office and was removed from office because of it. It would be ludicrous.
He would have the chutzpah to call an immediate general election when Labour clearly aren't ready for it. Not sure any of the others would.
What a naive post. a) He wouldn't b) Labour would be ready, so bring it on.
Manifesto ready for printing, is it? All candidates in place and sufficient funds to run a campaign?
Boris resolves the inevitable democratic mandate problem….
Which would be offset by having someone returned to office who was demonstrated to be fundamentally dishonest and unfit for high office and was removed from office because of it. It would be ludicrous.
He would have the chutzpah to call an immediate general election when Labour clearly aren't ready for it. Not sure any of the others would.
What a naive post. a) He wouldn't b) Labour would be ready, so bring it on.
Manifesto ready for printing, is it? All candidates in place and sufficient funds to run a campaign?
Same applies to the Tories. What are their policies, after the last week or three? Or their sitting MPs, never mind their candidates?
Boris resolves the inevitable democratic mandate problem….
Which would be offset by having someone returned to office who was demonstrated to be fundamentally dishonest and unfit for high office and was removed from office because of it. It would be ludicrous.
He would have the chutzpah to call an immediate general election when Labour clearly aren't ready for it. Not sure any of the others would.
What a naive post. a) He wouldn't b) Labour would be ready, so bring it on.
He would. Anyone not on board would lose the whip as per last time. The only question is whether he would last long enough to still be leader by the time the election happened.....
Boris resolves the inevitable democratic mandate problem….
Which would be offset by having someone returned to office who was demonstrated to be fundamentally dishonest and unfit for high office and was removed from office because of it. It would be ludicrous.
If he gets sufficient nominations he wins. The members didnt want him gone and even many MPs will have remorse. Thry picked him desperation in 2019 and might again.
Plus, the next election is lost, might as well let him lose it.
Comments
Go Boris!
Edited extra bit: can't complain, got very lucky with 46 on Truss going this year and Hunt becoming next leader (laid him to be next PM at a bizarrely short 4).
There is enormous inertia in the British political system. Things carrying on running.
Sir Humphrey: Government isn't about morality.
Hacker: Really? What is it about then?
Sir Humphrey: Stability. Keeping thing going. Preventing anarchy. Stopping society falling to bits. Still being here tomorrow.
The British system is really very good at "still being here tomorrow".
But preventing failures, prevents opportunities, entrenches existing divides and leads to stagnation.
Failure has to be accepted as part of a healthy society. Why do we fall? To pick ourselves back up again.
Correct me if I am wrong on this, but it appears from this great distance that Prime Minister Truss did not listen to those who could have told her that -- regardless of the merits of her policies -- it would not be possible to sell them to the public. Or, possibly, even to a majority in the House of Commons.
If this simple analysis is bascially correct, was ths character flaw obvious before she reached the top?
What a fecking joke.
HY must be creaming himself.
Ah, the old classic comes to mind: J. B. S. Haldane, The cost of natural selection. Journal of Genetics volume 55, pages 511–524 (1957),
'Unless selection is very intense, the number of deaths needed to secure the substitution, by natural selection, of one gene for another at a locus, is independent of the intensity of selection. It is often about 30 times the number of organisms in a generation. [...]'
#obviousjokes
"Boris Johnson is expected to stand in the Tory leadership contest"
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1583091554574831617?s=20&t=oTwW0qfUt85tFYDKrmSDQQ
But the other hand needs to be as big as a bucket to hold all the downsides...
I think even more of the country would as well.
The joke's worn thin.
Boris is more popular with the membership...
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1583093665626353664
I don't think he'd make the final two now
@christiancalgie
·
1m
Tory MP: "We're fucked", "Boris turned around once and can do it again"
https://twitter.com/christiancalgie/status/1583094040530018304
God help us.
All of them.
Boris Johnson, looking remarkably like a young Patrick Duffy, steps out of the shower and it transpires the last year was all just a bad dream. FFS!
https://twitter.com/twitonatrain/status/1580851195786076160?t=7o1MXk1nLo90vPvNaamlxA&s=19
Shame I didn't act on it then!
Also, do we really want comms in the hands of Musk? For years I compared him with Brunel, positively. I was wrong. Musk is not the modern-day Brunel.
He is the modern-day Henry Ford. Except worse...
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
@Steven_Swinford
Flight tracker from Dominican Republic anyone?
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1583092367883923456
Topped up @ 28/1 an hour ago.
Whole party would fall apart.
Jesus, how many more times?
If it is Boris, he might just die laughing at his own good fortune.
I just chucked a quid on Gove & Shapps - both at 200/1.
Plus, the next election is lost, might as well let him lose it.
Free money available on Boris Johnson.
Should be 33. Trading at 5.