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In the VI polling, there’s been a marked shift to LAB – politicalbetting.com

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  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited July 2022

    So final 2 to be Rishi and a Stop Rishi candidate - Mordaunt or Truss presumably?

    Its looking ever more the Rishi Liz show to me. The two names foremost over the last few months. I dont think the ERG have enough to get Braverman close, Badenoch is a better fit for them. Her copybook is most blotted by being another fox hunting fan. Let it go! She would however delight brexiteers and the moral majority types and is the red wall solution imo
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,679
    GIN1138 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nobody is mentioning Gove. Will his endorsement be critical? If he and Wallace were to line up behind someone like Truss/Sunak/Mordaunt that could be massive.

    Wallace wanted to cut Goves dick off in 2016...
    Did he give any reason for wanting to do that?
    It's Gove. Did he need a reason? :D
    The funniest thing about the Boris coup was when the rolling news solemnly proclaimed:

    'Gove to tell Johnson that his time is up and he has no option but to resign.'

    Then, about twenty minutes later, we had:

    'Gove sacked.'

    It was hilarious imaging how all that played out.
  • I did warn @HYUFD that Wallace was not certain to stand and I have no idea how he will come to terms with the news

    He'll go with whatever he thinks CCHQ wants him to think now.

    For now, that'll mean whichever leading anti Sunak candidate there is. But if Sunak wins then we'll have always been at war with Eastasia and Sunak will be the greatest leader of all time, obviously.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,042

    I did warn @HYUFD that Wallace was not certain to stand and I have no idea how he will come to terms with the news

    He'll go with whatever he thinks CCHQ wants him to think now.

    For now, that'll mean whichever leading anti Sunak candidate there is. But if Sunak wins then we'll have always been at war with Eastasia and Sunak will be the greatest leader of all time, obviously.
    Indeed but the interesting question now is who will Wallace endorse
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    On a walk decided to look at BF re the rugby. BF said Aus were only 5 points down with 8 mins to go so I put a fiver on at 34. Tossers hadn’t updates the live score to 17-25, a different proposition
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Farooq said:

    Whomever offers Gove CofExchq gets 60 plus MPs

    Wallace, as suggested yesterday, will be looking for confirmation he can keep defence for endorsememt

    FYI:
    "Whoever".
    "Whomever" is for the object of a verb. "Whoever" is for the subject.
    I thought it looked odd. That will be why.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286
    edited July 2022

    GIN1138 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nobody is mentioning Gove. Will his endorsement be critical? If he and Wallace were to line up behind someone like Truss/Sunak/Mordaunt that could be massive.

    Wallace wanted to cut Goves dick off in 2016...
    Did he give any reason for wanting to do that?
    It's Gove. Did he need a reason? :D
    The funniest thing about the Boris coup was when the rolling news solemnly proclaimed:

    'Gove to tell Johnson that his time is up and he has no option but to resign.'

    Then, about twenty minutes later, we had:

    'Gove sacked.'

    It was hilarious imaging how all that played out.
    Will make an interesting chapter in Volume 1 of the Boris memoir I'm sure... ;)
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    I did warn @HYUFD that Wallace was not certain to stand and I have no idea how he will come to terms with the news

    Its partly about image and Wallace would be compartmentalised too easily by the left. You could imagine the nasty insults. Male/stale/pale 'gammon' etc.

    In this case he is sensible and I applaud him.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052
    GIN1138 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    GIN1138 said:

    DavidL said:

    Wallace not running

    Wow. So who is he going to throw his weight behind? @HYUFD will be in need of instructions.
    I think he'll go for Truss or Mourdant. He won't trust Rish to spend on defence IMO.
    Military remainer so Tugendhat? If they aren't too much at odds over Air Doggie

    NB Aaron is a Tugendhat man
    Nah. Next PM has to be someone from the Cabinet (or with Cabinet experience at least)

    Tom is just wasting everyone's time at this point...
    I think he wants Foreign Secretary. He’ll row in behind someone after a round or two.

  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,679
    Sounds like a good win for England (though for many it will be the wrong type of win).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,288
    Happy to be proven wrong

    Well done England. Showed some mettle at last
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Great result there for England.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052

    So final 2 to be Rishi and a Stop Rishi candidate - Mordaunt or Truss presumably?

    It’s a Tory leadership contest. One or more of the above is getting knifed.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    JRM and Soubry on AQ.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286
    edited July 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    It's going to be Braverman, isn't it.

    They are going to be begging BoZo to come back...

    LOL! Sue-Ellen Vs Nadine in the final two would be funny! :D
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    DavidL said:
    He should be ruled out purely on the riduculousness of Wednesday's events. Go to backbenches, go Straight to backbenches, do not collect PPE contract, do not pass Go
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    This reinforces my overall impression


  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220

    GIN1138 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nobody is mentioning Gove. Will his endorsement be critical? If he and Wallace were to line up behind someone like Truss/Sunak/Mordaunt that could be massive.

    Wallace wanted to cut Goves dick off in 2016...
    Did he give any reason for wanting to do that?
    It's Gove. Did he need a reason? :D
    The funniest thing about the Boris coup was when the rolling news solemnly proclaimed:

    'Gove to tell Johnson that his time is up and he has no option but to resign.'

    Then, about twenty minutes later, we had:

    'Gove sacked.'

    It was hilarious imaging how all that played out.
    Gove went to Boris to offer him the whisky and revolver.

    Boris downed the whisky and shot Gove with the revolver.
    As everyone knew Boris would do.

    Though soberly shooting Gove first, then drinking the whisky in triumph would be more practical, wouldn't it?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    dixiedean said:

    JRM and Soubry on AQ.

    Its the leader of Change UK, the titans of 2019.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842

    GIN1138 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nobody is mentioning Gove. Will his endorsement be critical? If he and Wallace were to line up behind someone like Truss/Sunak/Mordaunt that could be massive.

    Wallace wanted to cut Goves dick off in 2016...
    Did he give any reason for wanting to do that?
    It's Gove. Did he need a reason? :D
    The funniest thing about the Boris coup was when the rolling news solemnly proclaimed:

    'Gove to tell Johnson that his time is up and he has no option but to resign.'

    Then, about twenty minutes later, we had:

    'Gove sacked.'

    It was hilarious imaging how all that played out.
    Gove went to Boris to offer him the whisky and revolver.

    Boris downed the whisky and shot Gove with the revolver.
    Just shows how Boris had been harbouring a grudge for many years and finally got to exact his revenge.

    Petty little man
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nobody is mentioning Gove. Will his endorsement be critical? If he and Wallace were to line up behind someone like Truss/Sunak/Mordaunt that could be massive.

    Wallace wanted to cut Goves dick off in 2016...
    Did he give any reason for wanting to do that?
    Do you need one?
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    Anyone thought of Matt Hancock as a surprise candidate?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    RU surprise of the day for me is Japan 15 - 20 France. Would have thought the Blues would have run away with that rather than win by less than a converted score.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    DougSeal said:

    This reinforces my overall impression


    Its funny.

    After 1990 you could never find a single person who would admit to voting for the blessed lady Margaret (PBUH), which makes you wonder how she ever won three elections at a gallop.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286

    Anyone thought of Matt Hancock as a surprise candidate?

    No!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,831

    DavidL said:
    He should be ruled out purely on the riduculousness of Wednesday's events. Go to backbenches, go Straight to backbenches, do not collect PPE contract, do not pass Go
    Indeed. In the chaos his appointment to the post has really slipped under the radar but he is a ticking time bomb for the Tories.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    In answer to Jolyon:

    Seeing as there's quite a bit of chat going around the Tories choosing someone from a visible ethnic minority as their new leader, here are some quick thoughts from focus groups where I've asked Tory *voters* - not members - this question in focus groups recently...

    So could a black or brown Tory win a general election? Emphatically yes.


    https://twitter.com/gabrielmilland/status/1545700462896218113
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052
    edited July 2022
    DougSeal said:

    This reinforces my overall impression


    What I take from that is the ip until Partygate he was no more unpopular than he was when he won a majority of 80. That suggests to me that the net figure is less relevant than the absolute favourable score.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565
    biggles said:

    So final 2 to be Rishi and a Stop Rishi candidate - Mordaunt or Truss presumably?

    It’s a Tory leadership contest. One or more of the above is getting knifed.
    Co-ordinated by Boris sat in Downing Street....
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,042

    Anyone thought of Matt Hancock as a surprise candidate?

    He has said he is not standing
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    I did warn @HYUFD that Wallace was not certain to stand and I have no idea how he will come to terms with the news

    Doesn’t surprise me in the least. He strikes me as a canny operator aware of his own strengths and limitations. Unlike much of the rest of the field….
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    I did warn @HYUFD that Wallace was not certain to stand and I have no idea how he will come to terms with the news

    He'll go with whatever he thinks CCHQ wants him to think now.

    For now, that'll mean whichever leading anti Sunak candidate there is. But if Sunak wins then we'll have always been at war with Eastasia and Sunak will be the greatest leader of all time, obviously.
    Indeed but the interesting question now is who will Wallace endorse
    Truss, to stop Rishi.

    HY will now root for Mourdant.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    biggles said:

    Leon said:

    The Guardian, via Jonathan Freedland, wants to reverse Brexit, now Boris is gone

    “The dots are all there. Voters are already beginning to join them, even as Starmer insists that the subject is essentially closed. The politicians might not want to say it, but this week is a milestone in the fate of Brexit. The prime author of Britain’s exit from the EU has fallen: the standing of his calamitous project is heading the same way.”

    See that phrase and feel the chills in your blood

    “A milestone in the fate of Brexit”

    What fate? It’s done. Isn’t it?

    They want to reverse it and they will try to reverse it and Starmer won’t be able to resist the pressure to have a go

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/08/boris-johnson-lies-brexit-exit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Latest YouGov Brexit tracker

    Brexit Right 36%
    Brexit Wrong 50%
    DK 14%
    Wrong question. Is anyone polling on whether people want to rejoin, via a referendum”? We’re out now - the question is about joining and on what terms.

    Whilst I don't think there is an appetite for a rejoining referendum right now, anyone who believes that the Brexit issue is done and dusted when only 36% (and dropping) believe it was the right decision is delusional.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Has Gavin Williamson endorsed anyone yet?

    That would save us some time in identifying the most unsuitable & incompetent.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842

    In answer to Jolyon:

    Seeing as there's quite a bit of chat going around the Tories choosing someone from a visible ethnic minority as their new leader, here are some quick thoughts from focus groups where I've asked Tory *voters* - not members - this question in focus groups recently...

    So could a black or brown Tory win a general election? Emphatically yes.


    https://twitter.com/gabrielmilland/status/1545700462896218113

    It is noticeable that the so-called progressive party hasn't even come close to electing anything that a white male leader.

    Quotas and so-called 'affirmative action' do not seem to work in attracting potential leaders.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    biggles said:

    DougSeal said:

    This reinforces my overall impression


    What I take from that is the ip until Partygate he was no more unpopular than he was when he won a majority of 80. That suggests to me that the net figure is less relevant than the absolute favourable score.
    Patterson not Partygate was the catalyst.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    GIN1138 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nobody is mentioning Gove. Will his endorsement be critical? If he and Wallace were to line up behind someone like Truss/Sunak/Mordaunt that could be massive.

    Wallace wanted to cut Goves dick off in 2016...
    Did he give any reason for wanting to do that?
    It's Gove. Did he need a reason? :D
    The funniest thing about the Boris coup was when the rolling news solemnly proclaimed:

    'Gove to tell Johnson that his time is up and he has no option but to resign.'

    Then, about twenty minutes later, we had:

    'Gove sacked.'

    It was hilarious imaging how all that played out.
    Gove went to Boris to offer him the whisky and revolver.

    Boris downed the whisky and shot Gove with the revolver.
    Just shows how Boris had been harbouring a grudge for many years and finally got to exact his revenge.

    Petty little man
    I think once the transfer of power completes, the generally accepted view will be what a petty, pathetic, spiteful, desperate end it was. An adult's tantrum. Like the regrettable petty bitterness at the end of some relationships.
    He needs Stanley to rock up and say 'what an extraordinary performance. Go to your room'
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652

    In answer to Jolyon:

    Seeing as there's quite a bit of chat going around the Tories choosing someone from a visible ethnic minority as their new leader, here are some quick thoughts from focus groups where I've asked Tory *voters* - not members - this question in focus groups recently...

    So could a black or brown Tory win a general election? Emphatically yes.


    https://twitter.com/gabrielmilland/status/1545700462896218113

    It is noticeable that the so-called progressive party hasn't even come close to electing anything that a white male leader.

    Quotas and so-called 'affirmative action' do not seem to work in attracting potential leaders.
    Having a billion quid must help.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    biggles said:

    So final 2 to be Rishi and a Stop Rishi candidate - Mordaunt or Truss presumably?

    It’s a Tory leadership contest. One or more of the above is getting knifed.
    Co-ordinated by Boris sat in Downing Street....
    You were once big Rishi fan Mark? what actually did change everyone’s opinion? News of all the forty billion pounds of fraud on his watch?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Anyone thought of Matt Hancock as a surprise candidate?

    Hes ruled it out
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    In answer to Jolyon:

    Seeing as there's quite a bit of chat going around the Tories choosing someone from a visible ethnic minority as their new leader, here are some quick thoughts from focus groups where I've asked Tory *voters* - not members - this question in focus groups recently...

    So could a black or brown Tory win a general election? Emphatically yes.


    https://twitter.com/gabrielmilland/status/1545700462896218113

    It is noticeable that the so-called progressive party hasn't even come close to electing anything that a white male leader.

    Quotas and so-called 'affirmative action' do not seem to work in attracting potential leaders.
    Indeed, opportunity and promotion would appear a lot more effective than quotas and patronising.

  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    edited July 2022
    OllyT said:

    biggles said:

    Leon said:

    The Guardian, via Jonathan Freedland, wants to reverse Brexit, now Boris is gone

    “The dots are all there. Voters are already beginning to join them, even as Starmer insists that the subject is essentially closed. The politicians might not want to say it, but this week is a milestone in the fate of Brexit. The prime author of Britain’s exit from the EU has fallen: the standing of his calamitous project is heading the same way.”

    See that phrase and feel the chills in your blood

    “A milestone in the fate of Brexit”

    What fate? It’s done. Isn’t it?

    They want to reverse it and they will try to reverse it and Starmer won’t be able to resist the pressure to have a go

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/08/boris-johnson-lies-brexit-exit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Latest YouGov Brexit tracker

    Brexit Right 36%
    Brexit Wrong 50%
    DK 14%
    Wrong question. Is anyone polling on whether people want to rejoin, via a referendum”? We’re out now - the question is about joining and on what terms.

    Whilst I don't think there is an appetite for a rejoining referendum right now, anyone who believes that the Brexit issue is done and dusted when only 36% (and dropping) believe it was the right decision is delusional.
    People who are advocating rejoining really need to actually take a look across the channel and see what is happening in Europe.

    I wouldn't rule out a Sri Lanka type event in one or more countries there in the next 12 months. At least the UK and US can raise rates to counter inflation.

    The ECB by contrast is powerless. Prices are already rising at double digit rates in some member states and interest rates are still sub-zero.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,288
    DougSeal said:

    RU surprise of the day for me is Japan 15 - 20 France. Would have thought the Blues would have run away with that rather than win by less than a converted score.

    It should be a really exciting and open World Cup, any of six teams could win

    NZ
    Oz
    SA
    Eng
    Fra
    Ire

    There really isn’t much between any of them

    And you can see Japan, Scotland, Arg reaching the semis. Game on!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    Seen a lot of mask use out and about today.

    Has 3/10 Apocalypse on monoliths sparked a national concern?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    dixiedean said:

    biggles said:

    DougSeal said:

    This reinforces my overall impression


    What I take from that is the ip until Partygate he was no more unpopular than he was when he won a majority of 80. That suggests to me that the net figure is less relevant than the absolute favourable score.
    Patterson not Partygate was the catalyst.
    Agreed. Paterson was the main scales from the eyes moment. He went from slightly chaotic, bumbling, rule blunderer to out and out low rent crook
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310
    @maxh and @Phil

    I saw your questions to me. I am about to travel,somewhere so can't answer now but will do so.

    Thoughtful and interesting question so I will try and give a (I hope) thoughtful answer later.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Just seen the Ben Wallace news. Totally changes the race.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    EPG said:

    In answer to Jolyon:

    Seeing as there's quite a bit of chat going around the Tories choosing someone from a visible ethnic minority as their new leader, here are some quick thoughts from focus groups where I've asked Tory *voters* - not members - this question in focus groups recently...

    So could a black or brown Tory win a general election? Emphatically yes.


    https://twitter.com/gabrielmilland/status/1545700462896218113

    It is noticeable that the so-called progressive party hasn't even come close to electing anything that a white male leader.

    Quotas and so-called 'affirmative action' do not seem to work in attracting potential leaders.
    Having a billion quid must help.
    Do either Suella or Kemi have a billion quid?

  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    RU surprise of the day for me is Japan 15 - 20 France. Would have thought the Blues would have run away with that rather than win by less than a converted score.

    It should be a really exciting and open World Cup, any of six teams could win

    NZ
    Oz
    SA
    Eng
    Fra
    Ire

    There really isn’t much between any of them

    And you can see Japan, Scotland, Arg reaching the semis. Game on!
    Wales and Fiji are also well capable of an upset. Italy are getting stronger.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    RU surprise of the day for me is Japan 15 - 20 France. Would have thought the Blues would have run away with that rather than win by less than a converted score.

    It should be a really exciting and open World Cup, any of six teams could win

    NZ
    Oz
    SA
    Eng
    Fra
    Ire

    There really isn’t much between any of them

    And you can see Japan, Scotland, Arg reaching the semis. Game on!
    Whole Autumn series and 6N to come. I always think that England have a better chance in odd numbered years to win the 6N because we have three home games (against the three teams that play in blue trivia fans) but statistics doesn’t bear that out.

  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    MISTY said:

    OllyT said:

    biggles said:

    Leon said:

    The Guardian, via Jonathan Freedland, wants to reverse Brexit, now Boris is gone

    “The dots are all there. Voters are already beginning to join them, even as Starmer insists that the subject is essentially closed. The politicians might not want to say it, but this week is a milestone in the fate of Brexit. The prime author of Britain’s exit from the EU has fallen: the standing of his calamitous project is heading the same way.”

    See that phrase and feel the chills in your blood

    “A milestone in the fate of Brexit”

    What fate? It’s done. Isn’t it?

    They want to reverse it and they will try to reverse it and Starmer won’t be able to resist the pressure to have a go

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/08/boris-johnson-lies-brexit-exit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Latest YouGov Brexit tracker

    Brexit Right 36%
    Brexit Wrong 50%
    DK 14%
    Wrong question. Is anyone polling on whether people want to rejoin, via a referendum”? We’re out now - the question is about joining and on what terms.

    Whilst I don't think there is an appetite for a rejoining referendum right now, anyone who believes that the Brexit issue is done and dusted when only 36% (and dropping) believe it was the right decision is delusional.
    People who are advocating rejoining really need to actually take a look across the channel and see what is happening in Europe.

    I wouldn't rule out a Sri Lanka type event in one or more countries there in the next 12 months. At least the UK and US can raise rates to counter inflation.

    The ECB by contrast is powerless. Prices are already rising at double digit rates in some member states and interest rates are still sub-zero.
    Also who are the big leaders in Europe now? Merkel is gone. Macron has been neutered by his assembly election failures.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    The funniest thing about the Boris coup was when the rolling news solemnly proclaimed:

    'Gove to tell Johnson that his time is up and he has no option but to resign.'

    Then, about twenty minutes later, we had:

    'Gove sacked.'

    It was hilarious imaging how all that played out.

    Gove gave BoZo until 9pm to resign.

    BoZo sacked him at 8:59pm
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990


    Has Gavin Williamson endorsed anyone yet?

    That would save us some time in identifying the most unsuitable & incompetent.

    Rishi IIRC
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    EPG said:

    In answer to Jolyon:

    Seeing as there's quite a bit of chat going around the Tories choosing someone from a visible ethnic minority as their new leader, here are some quick thoughts from focus groups where I've asked Tory *voters* - not members - this question in focus groups recently...

    So could a black or brown Tory win a general election? Emphatically yes.


    https://twitter.com/gabrielmilland/status/1545700462896218113

    It is noticeable that the so-called progressive party hasn't even come close to electing anything that a white male leader.

    Quotas and so-called 'affirmative action' do not seem to work in attracting potential leaders.
    Having a billion quid must help.
    Do either Suella or Kemi have a billion quid?

    Having a billion quid sure won't help on the doorsteps of inflation ravaged England.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    In answer to Jolyon:

    Seeing as there's quite a bit of chat going around the Tories choosing someone from a visible ethnic minority as their new leader, here are some quick thoughts from focus groups where I've asked Tory *voters* - not members - this question in focus groups recently...

    So could a black or brown Tory win a general election? Emphatically yes.


    https://twitter.com/gabrielmilland/status/1545700462896218113

    It is noticeable that the so-called progressive party hasn't even come close to electing anything that a white male leader.

    And we are already starting to hear that Wes is an exceptional talent ... so maybe the next leader may have to be another white guy :wink:
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    GIN1138 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nobody is mentioning Gove. Will his endorsement be critical? If he and Wallace were to line up behind someone like Truss/Sunak/Mordaunt that could be massive.

    Wallace wanted to cut Goves dick off in 2016...
    Did he give any reason for wanting to do that?
    It's Gove. Did he need a reason? :D
    The funniest thing about the Boris coup was when the rolling news solemnly proclaimed:

    'Gove to tell Johnson that his time is up and he has no option but to resign.'

    Then, about twenty minutes later, we had:

    'Gove sacked.'

    It was hilarious imaging how all that played out.
    Gove went to Boris to offer him the whisky and revolver.

    Boris downed the whisky and shot Gove with the revolver.
    Just shows how Boris had been harbouring a grudge for many years and finally got to exact his revenge.

    Petty little man
    I think once the transfer of power completes, the generally accepted view will be what a petty, pathetic, spiteful, desperate end it was. An adult's tantrum. Like the regrettable petty bitterness at the end of some relationships.
    He needs Stanley to rock up and say 'what an extraordinary performance. Go to your room'
    Caroline Nokes Reddened Bottom says ground both of them. Two cheeks of the same arse.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652

    EPG said:

    In answer to Jolyon:

    Seeing as there's quite a bit of chat going around the Tories choosing someone from a visible ethnic minority as their new leader, here are some quick thoughts from focus groups where I've asked Tory *voters* - not members - this question in focus groups recently...

    So could a black or brown Tory win a general election? Emphatically yes.


    https://twitter.com/gabrielmilland/status/1545700462896218113

    It is noticeable that the so-called progressive party hasn't even come close to electing anything that a white male leader.

    Quotas and so-called 'affirmative action' do not seem to work in attracting potential leaders.
    Having a billion quid must help.
    Do either Suella or Kemi have a billion quid?

    No, but mostly comments were talking about Sunak, for the very good reason that he has scads of money for his campaign, senior ministerial experience and (unlike one of your names) isn't in a fringe religious movement.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    BETTING POINT several books and exchanges are running separate next PM and next Tory leader markets.

    Labour are still saying they will VONC next week, which would mean an interim PM if successful
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    MISTY said:

    OllyT said:

    biggles said:

    Leon said:

    The Guardian, via Jonathan Freedland, wants to reverse Brexit, now Boris is gone

    “The dots are all there. Voters are already beginning to join them, even as Starmer insists that the subject is essentially closed. The politicians might not want to say it, but this week is a milestone in the fate of Brexit. The prime author of Britain’s exit from the EU has fallen: the standing of his calamitous project is heading the same way.”

    See that phrase and feel the chills in your blood

    “A milestone in the fate of Brexit”

    What fate? It’s done. Isn’t it?

    They want to reverse it and they will try to reverse it and Starmer won’t be able to resist the pressure to have a go

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/08/boris-johnson-lies-brexit-exit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Latest YouGov Brexit tracker

    Brexit Right 36%
    Brexit Wrong 50%
    DK 14%
    Wrong question. Is anyone polling on whether people want to rejoin, via a referendum”? We’re out now - the question is about joining and on what terms.

    Whilst I don't think there is an appetite for a rejoining referendum right now, anyone who believes that the Brexit issue is done and dusted when only 36% (and dropping) believe it was the right decision is delusional.
    People who are advocating rejoining really need to actually take a look across the channel and see what is happening in Europe.

    I wouldn't rule out a Sri Lanka type event in one or more countries there in the next 12 months. At least the UK and US can raise rates to counter inflation.

    The ECB by contrast is powerless. Prices are
    already rising at double digit rates in some member states and interest rates are still sub-zero.
    Without wanting to reopen a tiresome argument that is as a result of Euro membership, not EU or SM membership.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,161

    In answer to Jolyon:

    Seeing as there's quite a bit of chat going around the Tories choosing someone from a visible ethnic minority as their new leader, here are some quick thoughts from focus groups where I've asked Tory *voters* - not members - this question in focus groups recently...

    So could a black or brown Tory win a general election? Emphatically yes.


    https://twitter.com/gabrielmilland/status/1545700462896218113

    It is noticeable that the so-called progressive party hasn't even come close to electing anything that a white male leader.

    Quotas and so-called 'affirmative action' do not seem to work in attracting potential leaders.
    What did Trollyon Jolyon say?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    GIN1138 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nobody is mentioning Gove. Will his endorsement be critical? If he and Wallace were to line up behind someone like Truss/Sunak/Mordaunt that could be massive.

    Wallace wanted to cut Goves dick off in 2016...
    Did he give any reason for wanting to do that?
    It's Gove. Did he need a reason? :D
    The funniest thing about the Boris coup was when the rolling news solemnly proclaimed:

    'Gove to tell Johnson that his time is up and he has no option but to resign.'

    Then, about twenty minutes later, we had:

    'Gove sacked.'

    It was hilarious imaging how all that played out.
    Gove went to Boris to offer him the whisky and revolver.

    Boris downed the whisky and shot Gove with the revolver.
    Just shows how Boris had been harbouring a grudge for many years and finally got to exact his revenge.

    Petty little man
    I think once the transfer of power completes, the generally accepted view will be what a petty, pathetic, spiteful, desperate end it was. An adult's tantrum. Like the regrettable petty bitterness at the end of some relationships.
    He needs Stanley to rock up and say 'what an extraordinary performance. Go to your room'
    Caroline Nokes Reddened Bottom says ground both of them. Two cheeks of the same arse.
    Yes, indeed. But i needed to use him in his position as father, not role model
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    edited July 2022

    In answer to Jolyon:

    Seeing as there's quite a bit of chat going around the Tories choosing someone from a visible ethnic minority as their new leader, here are some quick thoughts from focus groups where I've asked Tory *voters* - not members - this question in focus groups recently...

    So could a black or brown Tory win a general election? Emphatically yes.


    https://twitter.com/gabrielmilland/status/1545700462896218113

    It is noticeable that the so-called progressive party hasn't even come close to electing anything that a white male leader.

    And we are already starting to hear that Wes is an exceptional talent ... so maybe the next leader may have to be another white guy :wink:
    Though gay.

    What’s the closest UK have come to a gay prime minister before - mostly including the days they were in the closet?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220
    OllyT said:

    biggles said:

    Leon said:

    The Guardian, via Jonathan Freedland, wants to reverse Brexit, now Boris is gone

    “The dots are all there. Voters are already beginning to join them, even as Starmer insists that the subject is essentially closed. The politicians might not want to say it, but this week is a milestone in the fate of Brexit. The prime author of Britain’s exit from the EU has fallen: the standing of his calamitous project is heading the same way.”

    See that phrase and feel the chills in your blood

    “A milestone in the fate of Brexit”

    What fate? It’s done. Isn’t it?

    They want to reverse it and they will try to reverse it and Starmer won’t be able to resist the pressure to have a go

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/08/boris-johnson-lies-brexit-exit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Latest YouGov Brexit tracker

    Brexit Right 36%
    Brexit Wrong 50%
    DK 14%
    Wrong question. Is anyone polling on whether people want to rejoin, via a referendum”? We’re out now - the question is about joining and on what terms.

    Whilst I don't think there is an appetite for a rejoining referendum right now, anyone who believes that the Brexit issue is done and dusted when only 36% (and dropping) believe it was the right decision is delusional.
    The Max Hastings analysis- we're stuck with it, but the next generation will likely revisit it- seems sound. It's an unwanted gift from a distant relative, but it's rude to put it in eBay just yet.

    Trouble is twofold. How do we reduce the harm in the meantime, and what if the best path is to dilute Brexit to a homeopathic degree?

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Louise Mensch is taking the Ben Wallace decision badly.

    "Louise Mensch 🇺🇸🇺🇦
    @LouiseMensch
    Replying to
    @BWallaceMP
    Ben, duty calls. There is absolutely nobody better for this job than you, and moreover there is nobody who will do it nearly as well, I really hope you will change your mind you are by far and away the most likely person to win and you would be easily the best at the job.
    12:57 PM · Jul 9, 2022"

    https://twitter.com/LouiseMensch/status/1545738855042670594
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    We still have a few expected names yet to announce.

    Truss will do it before the end of the day I would imagine to try to get some headlines

    Shapps might as well not bother. He should be preparing to spend more time with his family.

    Hunt is likely to try but I can't see him getting to top 2 this time. He might not even bother.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Scott_xP said:

    BETTING POINT several books and exchanges are running separate next PM and next Tory leader markets.

    Labour are still saying they will VONC next week, which would mean an interim PM if successful
    I suspect they'll drop that once the timetable is out. And it won't succeed anyway
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652

    In answer to Jolyon:

    Seeing as there's quite a bit of chat going around the Tories choosing someone from a visible ethnic minority as their new leader, here are some quick thoughts from focus groups where I've asked Tory *voters* - not members - this question in focus groups recently...

    So could a black or brown Tory win a general election? Emphatically yes.


    https://twitter.com/gabrielmilland/status/1545700462896218113

    It is noticeable that the so-called progressive party hasn't even come close to electing anything that a white male leader.

    And we are already starting to hear that Wes is an exceptional talent ... so maybe the next leader may have to be another white guy :wink:
    Quite unlikely, I think the party and/or Beer Korma are clearly setting up the contest to be between a range of (white) woman leader aspirants.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    DougSeal said:

    MISTY said:

    OllyT said:

    biggles said:

    Leon said:

    The Guardian, via Jonathan Freedland, wants to reverse Brexit, now Boris is gone

    “The dots are all there. Voters are already beginning to join them, even as Starmer insists that the subject is essentially closed. The politicians might not want to say it, but this week is a milestone in the fate of Brexit. The prime author of Britain’s exit from the EU has fallen: the standing of his calamitous project is heading the same way.”

    See that phrase and feel the chills in your blood

    “A milestone in the fate of Brexit”

    What fate? It’s done. Isn’t it?

    They want to reverse it and they will try to reverse it and Starmer won’t be able to resist the pressure to have a go

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/08/boris-johnson-lies-brexit-exit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Latest YouGov Brexit tracker

    Brexit Right 36%
    Brexit Wrong 50%
    DK 14%
    Wrong question. Is anyone polling on whether people want to rejoin, via a referendum”? We’re out now - the question is about joining and on what terms.

    Whilst I don't think there is an appetite for a rejoining referendum right now, anyone who believes that the Brexit issue is done and dusted when only 36% (and dropping) believe it was the right decision is delusional.
    People who are advocating rejoining really need to actually take a look across the channel and see what is happening in Europe.

    I wouldn't rule out a Sri Lanka type event in one or more countries there in the next 12 months. At least the UK and US can raise rates to counter inflation.

    The ECB by contrast is powerless. Prices are
    already rising at double digit rates in some member states and interest rates are still sub-zero.
    Without wanting to reopen a tiresome argument that is as a result of Euro membership, not EU or SM membership.
    Well fair enough but don;t tell me that once you are a member you won't be on the hook for what is going on there.

    My point is that Europe used to be an easy sell. Now not so much. In 12 months, not at all.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,962
    DougSeal said:

    This reinforces my overall impression


    Globe Emoji Žižek
    @cesigno
    ·
    23h
    People liked it when he nearly died
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,799
    DougSeal said:

    MISTY said:

    OllyT said:

    biggles said:

    Leon said:

    The Guardian, via Jonathan Freedland, wants to reverse Brexit, now Boris is gone

    “The dots are all there. Voters are already beginning to join them, even as Starmer insists that the subject is essentially closed. The politicians might not want to say it, but this week is a milestone in the fate of Brexit. The prime author of Britain’s exit from the EU has fallen: the standing of his calamitous project is heading the same way.”

    See that phrase and feel the chills in your blood

    “A milestone in the fate of Brexit”

    What fate? It’s done. Isn’t it?

    They want to reverse it and they will try to reverse it and Starmer won’t be able to resist the pressure to have a go

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/08/boris-johnson-lies-brexit-exit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Latest YouGov Brexit tracker

    Brexit Right 36%
    Brexit Wrong 50%
    DK 14%
    Wrong question. Is anyone polling on whether people want to rejoin, via a referendum”? We’re out now - the question is about joining and on what terms.

    Whilst I don't think there is an appetite for a rejoining referendum right now, anyone who believes that the Brexit issue is done and dusted when only 36% (and dropping) believe it was the right decision is delusional.
    People who are advocating rejoining really need to actually take a look across the channel and see what is happening in Europe.

    I wouldn't rule out a Sri Lanka type event in one or more countries there in the next 12 months. At least the UK and US can raise rates to counter inflation.

    The ECB by contrast is powerless. Prices are
    already rising at double digit rates in some member states and interest rates are still sub-zero.
    Without wanting to reopen a tiresome argument that is as a result of Euro membership, not EU or SM membership.
    Well yes. But I don't fancy the chances of EU members who do not use the Euro of escaping getting sting for the costs.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842

    In answer to Jolyon:

    Seeing as there's quite a bit of chat going around the Tories choosing someone from a visible ethnic minority as their new leader, here are some quick thoughts from focus groups where I've asked Tory *voters* - not members - this question in focus groups recently...

    So could a black or brown Tory win a general election? Emphatically yes.


    https://twitter.com/gabrielmilland/status/1545700462896218113

    It is noticeable that the so-called progressive party hasn't even come close to electing anything that a white male leader.

    And we are already starting to hear that Wes is an exceptional talent ... so maybe the next leader may have to be another white guy :wink:
    Though gay.

    What’s the closest UK have come to a gay prime minister before - mostly including the days they were in the closet?
    I always assumed Heath was asexual in behaviour but homosexual by inclination.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Scott_xP said:

    BETTING POINT several books and exchanges are running separate next PM and next Tory leader markets.

    Labour are still saying they will VONC next week, which would mean an interim PM if successful
    No chance of it being successful. 40 Tory MPs won't vote for it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    The new education minister Andrea Jenkyns MP has released a statement after she was caught on camera appearing to make a rude gesture while entering Downing Street ahead of Boris Johnson's resignation speech.

    https://trib.al/dwvcRFT

    📺 Sky 501, Freeview 233 and YouTube https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1545748543306178561/video/1
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,762
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Louise Mensch is taking the Ben Wallace decision badly.

    "Louise Mensch 🇺🇸🇺🇦
    @LouiseMensch
    Replying to
    @BWallaceMP
    Ben, duty calls. There is absolutely nobody better for this job than you, and moreover there is nobody who will do it nearly as well, I really hope you will change your mind you are by far and away the most likely person to win and you would be easily the best at the job.
    12:57 PM · Jul 9, 2022"

    https://twitter.com/LouiseMensch/status/1545738855042670594

    Terrible news, he was the only candidate who could have united the party.

    My preference is now for Tugendhat
    Me too.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    OllyT said:

    biggles said:

    Leon said:

    The Guardian, via Jonathan Freedland, wants to reverse Brexit, now Boris is gone

    “The dots are all there. Voters are already beginning to join them, even as Starmer insists that the subject is essentially closed. The politicians might not want to say it, but this week is a milestone in the fate of Brexit. The prime author of Britain’s exit from the EU has fallen: the standing of his calamitous project is heading the same way.”

    See that phrase and feel the chills in your blood

    “A milestone in the fate of Brexit”

    What fate? It’s done. Isn’t it?

    They want to reverse it and they will try to reverse it and Starmer won’t be able to resist the pressure to have a go

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/08/boris-johnson-lies-brexit-exit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Latest YouGov Brexit tracker

    Brexit Right 36%
    Brexit Wrong 50%
    DK 14%
    Wrong question. Is anyone polling on whether people want to rejoin, via a referendum”? We’re out now - the question is about joining and on what terms.

    Whilst I don't think there is an appetite for a rejoining referendum right now, anyone who believes that the Brexit issue is done and dusted when only 36% (and dropping) believe it was the right decision is delusional.
    The Max Hastings analysis- we're stuck with it, but the next generation will likely revisit it- seems sound. It's an unwanted gift from a distant relative, but it's rude to put it in eBay just yet.

    Trouble is twofold. How do we reduce the harm in the meantime, and what if the best path is to dilute Brexit to a homeopathic degree?

    I guess I am that next generation, but UK hasn’t fallen apart since coming out.

    What is the harm? At very worst we just get poorer and poorer as a nation year and year?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Louise Mensch is taking the Ben Wallace decision badly.

    "Louise Mensch 🇺🇸🇺🇦
    @LouiseMensch
    Replying to
    @BWallaceMP
    Ben, duty calls. There is absolutely nobody better for this job than you, and moreover there is nobody who will do it nearly as well, I really hope you will change your mind you are by far and away the most likely person to win and you would be easily the best at the job.
    12:57 PM · Jul 9, 2022"

    https://twitter.com/LouiseMensch/status/1545738855042670594

    Terrible news, he was the only candidate who could have united the party.

    My preference is now for Tugendhat
    :open_mouth:
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,831
    edited July 2022

    biggles said:

    So final 2 to be Rishi and a Stop Rishi candidate - Mordaunt or Truss presumably?

    It’s a Tory leadership contest. One or more of the above is getting knifed.
    Co-ordinated by Boris sat in Downing Street....
    You were once big Rishi fan Mark? what actually did change everyone’s opinion? News of all the forty billion pounds of fraud on his watch?
    I am involved in a case at the moment that would make a smash and grab effort at the local jewellers by a chap who had just come out of his local, drunk, and been inspired by too many shorts look like the height of sophistication. The lack of the most elementary checks for the cheques is just jaw dropping. £50k bounce back loans for a company that only had dormant accounts, as an example.

    But, for me, the big mistakes was giving everyone in the country £400 off the heating bills instead of focusing that money on those who will be genuinely choosing between heating and eating and the idiotic increase in NI followed by giving much of it back again whilst increasing the differential between earned and unearned income for the better off.

    So I have some reservations. But that does not mean he is not the best of field.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,042
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Louise Mensch is taking the Ben Wallace decision badly.

    "Louise Mensch 🇺🇸🇺🇦
    @LouiseMensch
    Replying to
    @BWallaceMP
    Ben, duty calls. There is absolutely nobody better for this job than you, and moreover there is nobody who will do it nearly as well, I really hope you will change your mind you are by far and away the most likely person to win and you would be easily the best at the job.
    12:57 PM · Jul 9, 2022"

    https://twitter.com/LouiseMensch/status/1545738855042670594

    Terrible news, he was the only candidate who could have united the party.

    My preference is now for Tugendhat
    What will you do when he eventually backs Rishi
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052
    edited July 2022

    OllyT said:

    biggles said:

    Leon said:

    The Guardian, via Jonathan Freedland, wants to reverse Brexit, now Boris is gone

    “The dots are all there. Voters are already beginning to join them, even as Starmer insists that the subject is essentially closed. The politicians might not want to say it, but this week is a milestone in the fate of Brexit. The prime author of Britain’s exit from the EU has fallen: the standing of his calamitous project is heading the same way.”

    See that phrase and feel the chills in your blood

    “A milestone in the fate of Brexit”

    What fate? It’s done. Isn’t it?

    They want to reverse it and they will try to reverse it and Starmer won’t be able to resist the pressure to have a go

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/08/boris-johnson-lies-brexit-exit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Latest YouGov Brexit tracker

    Brexit Right 36%
    Brexit Wrong 50%
    DK 14%
    Wrong question. Is anyone polling on whether people want to rejoin, via a referendum”? We’re out now - the question is about joining and on what terms.

    Whilst I don't think there is an appetite for a rejoining referendum right now, anyone who believes that the Brexit issue is done and dusted when only 36% (and dropping) believe it was the right decision is delusional.
    The Max Hastings analysis- we're stuck with it, but the next generation will likely revisit it- seems sound. It's an unwanted gift from a distant relative, but it's rude to put it in eBay just yet.

    Trouble is twofold. How do we reduce the harm in the meantime, and what if the best path is to dilute Brexit to a homeopathic degree?

    I think you have to allow for the fact that the EU in 20 years will be a different beast. If the Macron “outer ring” for Ukraine was done in the right way, even I might want to join it.

  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BETTING POINT several books and exchanges are running separate next PM and next Tory leader markets.

    Labour are still saying they will VONC next week, which would mean an interim PM if successful
    No chance of it being successful. 40 Tory MPs won't vote for it.
    Yes. Tory MPs will vote confidence in Johnson. A good base for a comeback, sooner or later.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    EPG said:

    EPG said:

    In answer to Jolyon:

    Seeing as there's quite a bit of chat going around the Tories choosing someone from a visible ethnic minority as their new leader, here are some quick thoughts from focus groups where I've asked Tory *voters* - not members - this question in focus groups recently...

    So could a black or brown Tory win a general election? Emphatically yes.


    https://twitter.com/gabrielmilland/status/1545700462896218113

    It is noticeable that the so-called progressive party hasn't even come close to electing anything that a white male leader.

    Quotas and so-called 'affirmative action' do not seem to work in attracting potential leaders.
    Having a billion quid must help.
    Do either Suella or Kemi have a billion quid?

    No, but mostly comments were talking about Sunak, for the very good reason that he has scads of money for his campaign, senior ministerial experience and (unlike one of your names) isn't in a fringe religious movement.
    That latter point hasn't been really picked up on yet.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    In answer to Jolyon:

    Seeing as there's quite a bit of chat going around the Tories choosing someone from a visible ethnic minority as their new leader, here are some quick thoughts from focus groups where I've asked Tory *voters* - not members - this question in focus groups recently...

    So could a black or brown Tory win a general election? Emphatically yes.


    https://twitter.com/gabrielmilland/status/1545700462896218113

    It is noticeable that the so-called progressive party hasn't even come close to electing anything that a white male leader.

    And we are already starting to hear that Wes is an exceptional talent ... so maybe the next leader may have to be another white guy :wink:
    Though gay.

    What’s the closest UK have come to a gay prime minister before - mostly including the days they were in the closet?
    I always assumed Heath was asexual in behaviour but homosexual by inclination.

    Jeremy Thorpe but he wasnt getting the PM gig
    Scotland had both Ruth and Kezia in role and out at the same time?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    edited July 2022
    MISTY said:

    OllyT said:

    biggles said:

    Leon said:

    The Guardian, via Jonathan Freedland, wants to reverse Brexit, now Boris is gone

    “The dots are all there. Voters are already beginning to join them, even as Starmer insists that the subject is essentially closed. The politicians might not want to say it, but this week is a milestone in the fate of Brexit. The prime author of Britain’s exit from the EU has fallen: the standing of his calamitous project is heading the same way.”

    See that phrase and feel the chills in your blood

    “A milestone in the fate of Brexit”

    What fate? It’s done. Isn’t it?

    They want to reverse it and they will try to reverse it and Starmer won’t be able to resist the pressure to have a go

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/08/boris-johnson-lies-brexit-exit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Latest YouGov Brexit tracker

    Brexit Right 36%
    Brexit Wrong 50%
    DK 14%
    Wrong question. Is anyone polling on whether people want to rejoin, via a referendum”? We’re out now - the question is about joining and on what terms.

    Whilst I don't think there is an appetite for a rejoining referendum right now, anyone who believes that the Brexit issue is done and dusted when only 36% (and dropping) believe it was the right decision is delusional.
    People who are advocating rejoining really need to actually take a look across the channel and see what is happening in Europe.

    I wouldn't rule out a Sri Lanka type event in one or more countries there in the next 12 months. At least the UK and US can raise rates to counter inflation.

    The ECB by contrast is powerless. Prices are already rising at double digit rates in some member states and interest rates are still sub-zero.
    Eurosceptics have been making similar predictions since time began.

    Remember all those fevered posts about who would be first to follow us out of the EU after Brexit? Would it be France, or Italy or Ireland. Who has followed in our footsteps- precisely nobody.

    Meanwhile in the only country that did leave the EU only 36% of voters think it was a good move, and that figure is declining. Go figure.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,161
    edited July 2022

    In answer to Jolyon:

    Seeing as there's quite a bit of chat going around the Tories choosing someone from a visible ethnic minority as their new leader, here are some quick thoughts from focus groups where I've asked Tory *voters* - not members - this question in focus groups recently...

    So could a black or brown Tory win a general election? Emphatically yes.


    https://twitter.com/gabrielmilland/status/1545700462896218113

    Found it.

    This is what Jolyon said, then deleted:


  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,831


    Has Gavin Williamson endorsed anyone yet?

    That would save us some time in identifying the most unsuitable & incompetent.

    An almost impossible task in such a cluttered field, I agree.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052
    Andy_JS said:

    Louise Mensch is taking the Ben Wallace decision badly.

    "Louise Mensch 🇺🇸🇺🇦
    @LouiseMensch
    Replying to
    @BWallaceMP
    Ben, duty calls. There is absolutely nobody better for this job than you, and moreover there is nobody who will do it nearly as well, I really hope you will change your mind you are by far and away the most likely person to win and you would be easily the best at the job.
    12:57 PM · Jul 9, 2022"

    https://twitter.com/LouiseMensch/status/1545738855042670594

    Is she really talking about “duty”?

    😂 😂 😂
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    EPG said:

    In answer to Jolyon:

    Seeing as there's quite a bit of chat going around the Tories choosing someone from a visible ethnic minority as their new leader, here are some quick thoughts from focus groups where I've asked Tory *voters* - not members - this question in focus groups recently...

    So could a black or brown Tory win a general election? Emphatically yes.


    https://twitter.com/gabrielmilland/status/1545700462896218113

    It is noticeable that the so-called progressive party hasn't even come close to electing anything that a white male leader.

    And we are already starting to hear that Wes is an exceptional talent ... so maybe the next leader may have to be another white guy :wink:
    Quite unlikely, I think the party and/or Beer Korma are clearly setting up the contest to be between a range of (white) woman leader aspirants.
    It is tricky.

    I would tend to agree that Wes does look exceptional. So, why should he not stand in a leadership election ?

    OTH, it is getting very embarrassing for Labour to be talking the talk, and never actually doing anything.

    I think Labour would have been well advised not to have chosen the very average SKS, but one of the female candidates -- and the quid pro quo may turn out be Labour can't have Wes next time.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052
    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BETTING POINT several books and exchanges are running separate next PM and next Tory leader markets.

    Labour are still saying they will VONC next week, which would mean an interim PM if successful
    No chance of it being successful. 40 Tory MPs won't vote for it.
    Unanimous Tory vote I’m guessing. “Piss off, we’re busy and he’s already resigned”.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,831
    MattW said:

    In answer to Jolyon:

    Seeing as there's quite a bit of chat going around the Tories choosing someone from a visible ethnic minority as their new leader, here are some quick thoughts from focus groups where I've asked Tory *voters* - not members - this question in focus groups recently...

    So could a black or brown Tory win a general election? Emphatically yes.


    https://twitter.com/gabrielmilland/status/1545700462896218113

    Found it.

    This is what Jolyon said, then deleted:


    I really didn't think Maugham could go down further in my estimation but once again I underestimated him.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Louise Mensch is taking the Ben Wallace decision badly.

    "Louise Mensch 🇺🇸🇺🇦
    @LouiseMensch
    Replying to
    @BWallaceMP
    Ben, duty calls. There is absolutely nobody better for this job than you, and moreover there is nobody who will do it nearly as well, I really hope you will change your mind you are by far and away the most likely person to win and you would be easily the best at the job.
    12:57 PM · Jul 9, 2022"

    https://twitter.com/LouiseMensch/status/1545738855042670594

    Terrible news, he was the only candidate who could have united the party.

    My preference is now for Tugendhat
    What will you do when he eventually backs Rishi
    He won't and after today's Telegraph article that Sunak refuses to cut taxes, Truss, Mordaunt, Braverman, even Hunt as well as Tugendhat will all fancy their chances as that will go down like a lead balloon with the party membership and many Tory MPs

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/08/tax-cuts-must-wait-says-rishi-sunak-serious-tory-leadership/
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    biggles said:

    Unanimous Tory vote I’m guessing. “Piss off, we’re busy and he’s already resigned”.

    Which is of course also a success for Labour.
  • Jonathan said:

    Shame about Wallace. Seemed more human than the rest.

    The Alan Johnson of the Conservatives? Who basically said I have seen the top job right up close and no sane human would want it.
    This sounds about right. There is a massive, and flawed, assumption that everyone in politics is angling for the top job.

    As the last two incumbents have particularly painfully demonstrated, it's enormously exposing and can leave a reputation in tatters. There is no hiding place as there is even for a senior cabinet minister. That was an horrendous discovery for May, who had previously made a career out of perceived competence and masterful silence (there's a possible parallel with Wallace). For Johnson, it meant relentless focus on his widely recognised character flaw of factually questionable bluster and desire to please the audience he was talking to, even if it left unresolvable contradictions.

    The other risk for Wallace is that he'd flop when it came to talking about issues outside his brief (which he is clearly on top of, whether or not you agree with him on everything). It's not like Tugendhat or Badenoch for whom there is no shame in losing and they could well come out of honourable defeat with their position significantly strengthened. Given Tory member polling, expectations would be high, and he'd therefore be at real risk of emerging weakened. Standing would have meant gambling a lot of hard won capital with every possibility the gamble would fail.

    As it is, his approval among members remains high, his endorsement is sought-after, and his ability to achieve high position and/or policy objectives with the new leader is strong.
This discussion has been closed.