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In the VI polling, there’s been a marked shift to LAB – politicalbetting.com

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  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:

    BigGs support for Sunak makes no sense.

    Work out HYUFD for remainer Tom :D
    Remainer, Catholic or Jewish, proactively pro choice pro gay marriage tom. Some reboot
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,720

    Rishi, with allies in the press, is trying to make this a fait accompli.

    This, despite being a plutocrat with non-dom issues, and a record of poor judgment as Chancellor.

    He only looks good if you put him next to Truss or Braverman.

    My advice FWIW to Tory MPs is for god's sake don't put this to the membership.

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited July 2022
    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    I am rooting for Penny too, now we know her as woke and will take the Tory Party on over woke issues and put them right.

    The two biggest threats facing the Conservatives today are the mess they are getting into over woke, and the mess they will be in if they oppose Net Zero 2050 and green taxes to get us there. Those two things can keep them out of power for decades.

    So, by how much further should prices for petrol and domestic fuel be allowed to rise, in order to maintain the commitment to Net Zero?

    A question on which it would be useful to see some polling in Con/Lab marginal seats.
    Fuel prices aren't rising because of the commitment to net zero.
    The failure to cut fuel duty and VAT on domestic fuel - which is probably the largest single factor in current rising inflation, has Net Zero and Treasury capture all over it.

    My two big reservations about Rishi, are that he’s too rich to notice the effect of fuel prices on average people, and that he was totally housetrained by the Treasury mandarins.
    Not to mention that the last budget attempted to square the circle on the backs of the very poorest.

    Also, have we all forgotten the Great Barrington Declaration? Rishi was sympathetic to fringe voices suggesting lockdowns weren’t necessary at all - this was pre-vaccine…

    He also seems to think freeports are a golden ticket, and of course he effectively spiked levelling up.

    If you look closely, he’s got very poor judgment.
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    biggles said:

    DougSeal said:

    This reinforces my overall impression


    What I take from that is the ip until Partygate he was no more unpopular than he was when he won a majority of 80. That suggests to me that the net figure is less relevant than the absolute favourable score.
    Patterson not Partygate was the catalyst.
    Was it, though?

    The Paterson affair was right at the start of November. Johnson did take a polling hit, but the Tories actually retained a small polling lead in the days after his resignation, and it was even stevens throughout November. It was only in early December, when Partygate broke, that it spiraled out of control. Conservatives under Johnson never led a poll again after 8th December (a month after Paterson had gone) and his personal rating collapsed and never recovered.

    Not saying Paterson doesn't matter, but I'm not sure it had that much public cut-through. What it did is set up a very bad by-election (which happened in the midst of Partygate) and it enraged MPs who'd been whipped by Johnson to debase themselves by saving Paterson, and had the rug pulled from under them inside 24 hours as it was more convenient to Johnson. But that is more Westminster anger... the man on the Clapham Omnibus wasn't exactly delighted about it, but the image created by Partygate (champagne while you couldn't visit your dying Mum) was far worse than Johnson trying to help out a dodgy pal.
    So you are saying Patterson was the catalyst then?
    Sure. It was minor compared to Partygate.
    Patterson established without doubt he was a devious chancer.
    Partygate firmly re-inforced that view across even the least attentive.
    Pincher finished it off.
    The bookends were minuscule in comparison, sure, and each survivable.
    But Partygate alone wouldn't, and didn't, bring him down without the other two.
    Plus the economy of course.
    Your original claim appeared to be that Paterson was the catalyst for Johnson's decline in popularity to lower levels than those with which he'd won an election.

    I'm pointing out that the timings for that don't really work.

    I agree the Paterson affair was important in the timeline of his defenestration. It caused him damage amongst MPs and caused an awkward by-election (albeit that may well have happened without Johnson - remember that the penalty left him vulnerable to recall and Johnson's involvement was a failed attempt to save him). But that's about the mechanics of downfall rather than the unrecoverable decline in personal polling.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,359
    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    In answer to Jolyon:

    Seeing as there's quite a bit of chat going around the Tories choosing someone from a visible ethnic minority as their new leader, here are some quick thoughts from focus groups where I've asked Tory *voters* - not members - this question in focus groups recently...

    So could a black or brown Tory win a general election? Emphatically yes.


    https://twitter.com/gabrielmilland/status/1545700462896218113

    Found it.

    This is what Jolyon said, then deleted:


    I really didn't think Maugham could go down further in my estimation but once again I underestimated him.
    Maugham is actually disgusting.
    What man goes out in a kimono with a baseball bat with the express intention of smashing a fox to death. Twice
    I don't like foxes particularly (fox shit is disgusting in the garden), but I can't even contemplate beating them to death with a baseball bat.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    "Louise Mensch 🇺🇸🇺🇦
    @LouiseMensch
    Sulking. Morosely eating strawberries and bacon French Toast because Ben Wallace won’t stand.

    Oh well. Things will probably look better after my emergency order of a consoling breakfast."

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/08/next-tory-leader-whos-backing-whom-our-working-list/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Cookie said:

    dixiedean said:

    biggles said:

    DougSeal said:

    This reinforces my overall impression


    What I take from that is the ip until Partygate he was no more unpopular than he was when he won a majority of 80. That suggests to me that the net figure is less relevant than the absolute favourable score.
    Patterson not Partygate was the catalyst.
    I disagree. I'd say Partygate was when the public fell out with him. Patterson was when other Tories started to fall out with him.
    Interesting delineation. I can see that - partygate and his lies over it insulted the public. Paterson Boris made them humiliate themselves, and for nothing.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Scott_xP said:
    I’m really enjoying this Tory leader contest. I’m a sick man.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,679
    Scott_xP said:

    The Times comment team is leading the charge for Rishi Sunak & proposing the contest be truncated to a fortnight (favours the front runner) and stripped of members’ vote. The paper has 3 news stories helpful to Sunak too.

    Reminder: The last “coronation” picked Theresa May https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/1545759634497183744/photo/1

    Stripped of members' vote? Really? A few days ago John Major was described on here as the vilest man in history for suggesting that.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,720
    Hugo Gye
    @HugoGye
    ·
    1h
    Suspect the final two will be Sunak vs either Truss or Zahawi #timestamp
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497
    Leon said:

    The Guardian, via Jonathan Freedland, wants to reverse Brexit, now Boris is gone

    “The dots are all there. Voters are already beginning to join them, even as Starmer insists that the subject is essentially closed. The politicians might not want to say it, but this week is a milestone in the fate of Brexit. The prime author of Britain’s exit from the EU has fallen: the standing of his calamitous project is heading the same way.”

    See that phrase and feel the chills in your blood

    “A milestone in the fate of Brexit”

    What fate? It’s done. Isn’t it?

    They want to reverse it and they will try to reverse it and Starmer won’t be able to resist the pressure to have a go

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/08/boris-johnson-lies-brexit-exit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    The only solution to the Brexit dilemma lies in hands other than ours. The only thing which will work for the UK, with our particular culture, geography and history, is a different sort of EU. Between 1970 and about 1995 we had the chance to form it in a way which was acceptable in how it was formed, and democratic in how it altered. This was missed and is the greatest foreign policy failure of post war UK.

    Neither in nor out is acceptable to the UK as a whole. This is a direct consequence of third rate statecraft for decades.

    As a result UK interests will keep trying to pull the levers we possess, even though none connect to the root of the problem.

    Who will be the first significant politician to say so? And propose a way forward? The next political genius has a big opportunity.

    At this moment the skills we need are the positive skill set of Mr T Blair. (Not often I think that).

    BTW Scotland presents the same problem. By now, neither in or out of the union will be a solution to the split.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,018
    edited July 2022
    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    I am rooting for Penny too, now we know her as woke and will take the Tory Party on over woke issues and put them right.

    The two biggest threats facing the Conservatives today are the mess they are getting into over woke, and the mess they will be in if they oppose Net Zero 2050 and green taxes to get us there. Those two things can keep them out of power for decades.

    So, by how much further should prices for petrol and domestic fuel be allowed to rise, in order to maintain the commitment to Net Zero?

    A question on which it would be useful to see some polling in Con/Lab marginal seats.
    Fuel prices aren't rising because of the commitment to net zero.
    The failure to cut fuel duty and VAT on domestic fuel - which is probably the largest single factor in current rising inflation, has Net Zero and Treasury capture all over it.

    My two big reservations about Rishi, are that he’s too rich to notice the effect of fuel prices on average people, and that he was totally housetrained by the Treasury mandarins.
    What Rishi needs is a non-comprised Andy Coulson type, somebody who has an idea about normal folk and is well connected to the media to know how to sell it.

    It appears Rishi campiagn is being run by yet another posho PR whipper snapper, i am sure is good on making the flashy PR vids but less sure any more clue about normal folk.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Jonathan said:

    BigGs support for Sunak makes no sense.

    Don’t worry, he’ll be resigning his party membership again in no time.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,835
    Terrible drop by Roy.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,900

    Hugo Gye
    @HugoGye
    ·
    1h
    Suspect the final two will be Sunak vs either Truss or Zahawi #timestamp

    Neither Truss nor Zahawi have actually thrown their hat in the ring.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,447
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    ohnotnow said:

    https://twitter.com/BWallaceMP/status/1545732698567737344

    Rt. Hon Ben Wallace MP
    @BWallaceMP
    United Kingdom government official
    After careful consideration and discussing with colleagues and family, I have taken the decision not to enter the contest for leadership of the Conservative Party. I am very grateful to all my parliamentary colleagues and wider members who have pledged support.

    I guess his recommendation is going to carry a lot of weight?
    Given the talk of him being a front runner, definitely.

    Kudos to those who called he would not run..
    I said Wallace and Javid won’t run. So far so good
    Neither will Hunt. He's got very few declarers and has been very quiet, and is losing all the match ups. I suspect he'll declare for Rishi.

    I'm heavily laying him.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited July 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    The Times comment team is leading the charge for Rishi Sunak & proposing the contest be truncated to a fortnight (favours the front runner) and stripped of members’ vote. The paper has 3 news stories helpful to Sunak too.

    Reminder: The last “coronation” picked Theresa May https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/1545759634497183744/photo/1

    The sort of elitist attitude that led to things like Brexit and Trump. Casually deciding that the rank and file shouldn't have a vote, because the people at the top know best.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    Andy_JS said:

    "Louise Mensch 🇺🇸🇺🇦
    @LouiseMensch
    Sulking. Morosely eating strawberries and bacon French Toast because Ben Wallace won’t stand.

    Oh well. Things will probably look better after my emergency order of a consoling breakfast."

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/08/next-tory-leader-whos-backing-whom-our-working-list/

    Is Louise Mensch ex-MP a SeanT account?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,940
    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Times comment team is leading the charge for Rishi Sunak & proposing the contest be truncated to a fortnight (favours the front runner) and stripped of members’ vote. The paper has 3 news stories helpful to Sunak too.

    Reminder: The last “coronation” picked Theresa May https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/1545759634497183744/photo/1

    The sort of elitist attitude that led to things like Brexit and Trump. Casually deciding that the rank and file shouldn't have a vote, because the people at the top know best.
    And led to Brown too
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,309
    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    In answer to Jolyon:

    Seeing as there's quite a bit of chat going around the Tories choosing someone from a visible ethnic minority as their new leader, here are some quick thoughts from focus groups where I've asked Tory *voters* - not members - this question in focus groups recently...

    So could a black or brown Tory win a general election? Emphatically yes.


    https://twitter.com/gabrielmilland/status/1545700462896218113

    Found it.

    This is what Jolyon said, then deleted:


    I really didn't think Maugham could go down further in my estimation but once again I underestimated him.
    Maugham is actually disgusting.
    What man goes out in a kimono with a baseball bat with the express intention of smashing a fox to death. Twice
    I don't like foxes particularly (fox shit is disgusting in the garden), but I can't even contemplate beating them to death with a baseball bat.
    To make it worse, he then gloated about his “weird Boxing Day” (of fox smashing) on Twitter

    His wife should delete his Twitter account
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,018
    Why the bloody hell are England going with so many bowlers again....
  • TresTres Posts: 2,696

    Scott_xP said:
    I’m really enjoying this Tory leader contest. I’m a sick man.
    the decent tory party of normal types like John Major is looking like it's rescinding ever further into history
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited July 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Times comment team is leading the charge for Rishi Sunak & proposing the contest be truncated to a fortnight (favours the front runner) and stripped of members’ vote. The paper has 3 news stories helpful to Sunak too.

    Reminder: The last “coronation” picked Theresa May https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/1545759634497183744/photo/1

    The sort of elitist attitude that led to things like Brexit and Trump. Casually deciding that the rank and file shouldn't have a vote, because the people at the top know best.
    The Tory rank and file are morons. John Major knows.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    Neither Truss nor Zahawi have actually thrown their hat in the ring.

    Both of them should wait for the Sunday papers.

    Then Zahawi should get in the sea...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    In answer to Jolyon:

    Seeing as there's quite a bit of chat going around the Tories choosing someone from a visible ethnic minority as their new leader, here are some quick thoughts from focus groups where I've asked Tory *voters* - not members - this question in focus groups recently...

    So could a black or brown Tory win a general election? Emphatically yes.


    https://twitter.com/gabrielmilland/status/1545700462896218113

    Found it.

    This is what Jolyon said, then deleted:


    I really didn't think Maugham could go down further in my estimation but once again I underestimated him.
    Maugham is actually disgusting.
    Coward too - his 'white people agreed I should delete but people of colour said it was ok' makes his deletion pointless, and ignores plenty of commentators.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Quite a thread:

    So here's my collection of Braverman's low points


    https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/1545694173629644800
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,940

    Hugo Gye
    @HugoGye
    ·
    1h
    Suspect the final two will be Sunak vs either Truss or Zahawi #timestamp

    If it was Sunak v Truss I would have to vote for Sunak despite big reservations about him
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,900

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    ohnotnow said:

    https://twitter.com/BWallaceMP/status/1545732698567737344

    Rt. Hon Ben Wallace MP
    @BWallaceMP
    United Kingdom government official
    After careful consideration and discussing with colleagues and family, I have taken the decision not to enter the contest for leadership of the Conservative Party. I am very grateful to all my parliamentary colleagues and wider members who have pledged support.

    I guess his recommendation is going to carry a lot of weight?
    Given the talk of him being a front runner, definitely.

    Kudos to those who called he would not run..
    I said Wallace and Javid won’t run. So far so good
    Neither will Hunt. He's got very few declarers and has been very quiet, and is losing all the match ups. I suspect he'll declare for Rishi.

    I'm heavily laying him.
    Hunt was second last time but Boris purged a lot of Hunt's natural supporters. His book is about eliminating avoidable deaths in the NHS so perhaps he can be bought off with Health Secretary.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    I’m old enough to remember @HYUFD telling us that Wallace was definitely going to stand and definitely going to win.

    I hope you are old enough to remember me saying he was going to ask his family, because being PM in Downing Street wasn't necessarily something he had signed his family up for.

    And lo, it came to pass.
    Being front man isn’t for everyone. But in my opinion Wallace would make a great Willy to a Lady Thatcher. You can imagining him as the stand in when PM on holiday. Perfect deputy so still huge part to play.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220

    Rishi, with allies in the press, is trying to make this a fait accompli.

    This, despite being a plutocrat with non-dom issues, and a record of poor judgment as Chancellor.

    He only looks good if you put him next to Truss or Braverman.

    My advice FWIW to Tory MPs is for god's sake don't put this to the membership.

    How do they avoid that? There are enough MPs on the fruitloop right who know that sending this out to the party in the country is their best chance of getting their (wo)man into No 10.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Times comment team is leading the charge for Rishi Sunak & proposing the contest be truncated to a fortnight (favours the front runner) and stripped of members’ vote. The paper has 3 news stories helpful to Sunak too.

    Reminder: The last “coronation” picked Theresa May https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/1545759634497183744/photo/1

    The sort of elitist attitude that led to things like Brexit and Trump. Casually deciding that the rank and file shouldn't have a vote, because the people at the top know best.
    Classic Rishi, frankly.
    Remember how he got quite angry when someone asked the mildest of questions about the non-dom thing?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,940
    IshmaelZ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:

    BigGs support for Sunak makes no sense.

    Work out HYUFD for remainer Tom :D
    Remainer, Catholic or Jewish, proactively pro choice pro gay marriage tom. Some reboot
    Tugendhat isn't particularly pro abortion and voted against assisted suicide, given I was a Remainer being a Remainer but respecting Brexit like Tugendhat not a problem for me
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,835

    Why the bloody hell are England going with so many bowlers again....

    Livingstone, Ali and Curran can all bat in fairness.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,720

    GB News
    @GBNEWS
    · 2h
    'The early smart money was Tom Tugendhat... I wouldn't be surprised if we saw money for Kemi Badenoch'

    Political betting analyst William Kedjanyi

    https://twitter.com/GBNEWS/status/1545719983493242880

    ====

    Who? Is he on PB?

  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,785

    DougSeal said:

    This reinforces my overall impression


    Globe Emoji Žižek
    @cesigno
    ·
    23h
    People liked it when he nearly died
    Hah! Reminds me of https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/britain-waiting-for-medical-all-clear-to-think-boris-is-a-dick-again-20200410195338

    "BRITONS are nervously awaiting the all-clear from the prime minister’s doctors so that they can think he is a d*ck again."
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    HYUFD said:

    Hugo Gye
    @HugoGye
    ·
    1h
    Suspect the final two will be Sunak vs either Truss or Zahawi #timestamp

    If it was Sunak v Truss I would have to vote for Sunak despite big reservations about him
    If it's Sunak v Braverman or Sunak v Mordaunt who would you vote for?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,900

    I’m old enough to remember @HYUFD telling us that Wallace was definitely going to stand and definitely going to win.

    I hope you are old enough to remember me saying he was going to ask his family, because being PM in Downing Street wasn't necessarily something he had signed his family up for.

    And lo, it came to pass.
    Being front man isn’t for everyone. But in my opinion Wallace would make a great Willy to a Lady Thatcher. You can imagining him as the stand in when PM on holiday. Perfect deputy so still huge part to play.
    Wallace is no Willie Whitelaw who had previously been in government under Macmillan and Heath.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592
    Can anyone remember the name of the poster who had Sri Lankan links back in the Cameron days?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Unpopular opinion, but while I'd expect politicians to conduct themselves with dignity and respect even if provoked, I'd forgive them occasionally losing it and telling someone to sod or something.

    It's what apologies are made for, you're going to behave poorly sometimes, just dont make a habit of it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,309
    IshmaelZ said:
    I’m starting to think Truss will get it

    Because she will likely win, with the members, if she reaches the final two with Sunak
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Yes, the press trying to make this a coronation for Rishi. Hopefully not? he's actually an awful pick. Badenoch might be interesting to look at - picking up some RW nominations

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    I am rooting for Penny too, now we know her as woke and will take the Tory Party on over woke issues and put them right.

    The two biggest threats facing the Conservatives today are the mess they are getting into over woke, and the mess they will be in if they oppose Net Zero 2050 and green taxes to get us there. Those two things can keep them out of power for decades.

    So, by how much further should prices for petrol and domestic fuel be allowed to rise, in order to maintain the commitment to Net Zero?

    A question on which it would be useful to see some polling in Con/Lab marginal seats.
    Fuel prices aren't rising because of the commitment to net zero.
    The failure to cut fuel duty and VAT on domestic fuel - which is probably the largest single factor in current rising inflation, has Net Zero and Treasury capture all over it.

    My two big reservations about Rishi, are that he’s too rich to notice the effect of fuel prices on average people, and that he was totally housetrained by the Treasury mandarins.
    Not to mention that the last budget attempted to square the circle on the backs of the very poorest.

    Also, have we all forgotten the Great Barrington Declaration? Rishi was sympathetic to fringe voices suggesting lockdowns weren’t necessary at all - this was pre-vaccine…

    He also seems to think freeports are a golden ticket, and of course he effectively spiked levelling up.

    If you look closely, he’s got very poor judgment.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,720

    Rishi, with allies in the press, is trying to make this a fait accompli.

    This, despite being a plutocrat with non-dom issues, and a record of poor judgment as Chancellor.

    He only looks good if you put him next to Truss or Braverman.

    My advice FWIW to Tory MPs is for god's sake don't put this to the membership.

    How do they avoid that? There are enough MPs on the fruitloop right who know that sending this out to the party in the country is their best chance of getting their (wo)man into No 10.
    I've no idea frankly. But they found a way last time.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,900


    GB News
    @GBNEWS
    · 2h
    'The early smart money was Tom Tugendhat... I wouldn't be surprised if we saw money for Kemi Badenoch'

    Political betting analyst William Kedjanyi

    https://twitter.com/GBNEWS/status/1545719983493242880

    ====

    Who? Is he on PB?

    William Kedjanyi is the politics market maker for Star Sports bookmakers. I often flag up their weekly politics podcast.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    ohnotnow said:

    https://twitter.com/BWallaceMP/status/1545732698567737344

    Rt. Hon Ben Wallace MP
    @BWallaceMP
    United Kingdom government official
    After careful consideration and discussing with colleagues and family, I have taken the decision not to enter the contest for leadership of the Conservative Party. I am very grateful to all my parliamentary colleagues and wider members who have pledged support.

    I guess his recommendation is going to carry a lot of weight?
    Given the talk of him being a front runner, definitely.

    Kudos to those who called he would not run..
    I said Wallace and Javid won’t run. So far so good
    Neither will Hunt. He's got very few declarers and has been very quiet, and is losing all the match ups. I suspect he'll declare for Rishi.

    I'm heavily laying him.
    Hunt was second last time but Boris purged a lot of Hunt's natural supporters. His book is about eliminating avoidable deaths in the NHS so perhaps he can be bought off with Health Secretary.
    Didnt he want to keep a Great Office of State as the price for serving under Boris?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,309
    One thing: this time, it is not going to be a posh white male

    Wallace is out and Hunt is nearly out and Tugendhat hasn’t got a chance

    We are left with women and ethnic minority candidates
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,765
    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:

    BigGs support for Sunak makes no sense.

    Work out HYUFD for remainer Tom :D
    Remainer, Catholic or Jewish, proactively pro choice pro gay marriage tom. Some reboot
    Tugendhat isn't particularly pro abortion and voted against assisted suicide, given I was a Remainer being a Remainer but respecting Brexit like Tugendhat not a problem for me
    These are not political issues.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    Afternoon all :)

    Just a few observations as a non-Conservative on today's events.

    As expected, it seems to be coming down to the "big beasts" and Sunak has obviously had a leadership campaign in the works for a while (just as Johnson did in all fairness). Simon MacDonald's letter triggered the resignations of Javid and Sunak which began the end game for Johnson.

    Truss and Patel have to decide whether either is going to run as the "stop Rishi" candidate - both may wish to consider the two women leaders the Conservatives have had were both removed by their own backbenchers but Patel in particular can reconnect the leadership to the so-called "red wall" in a way I suspect neither Truss nor Sunak can.

    The Mail this morning leads the pro-Johnson fightback - a countercoup seems improbable but if we get a protracted and messy contest there will be growing calls for Johnson to return. As I asked earlier, where is the "red wall march" on London? Apart from a few grumpy people on Talk TV, do we have anything approaching a serious pro-Johnson movement? In theory, yes, in practice, no.

    How many of these pro-Johnson diehards are going to join Reform UK or will they set up their own movement or will they just on their asses grumbling for the rest of their lives (or indeed the rest of mine)?

    Finally, Wallace - whether he has calculated waiting for the Party to lose next time and then standing to be leader would be a better move I don't know. There is also the possibility he will be the "compromise" candidate (pace Jim Hacker) who will "reluctantly" take on the clamour of the party to lead.

    I don't see it either.

    Sunak's backers want this short (no pun intended) and sweet - perhaps a coronation and certainly before the awkward questions get asked. I've not been impressed with Sunak as a debater and TV performer - he strikes me as a man who has never known failure or a profound setback. Defeat and disappointment can be character building (ask any Lib Dem) and as a leader you have to be able to deal with that.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,679
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:
    I’m starting to think Truss will get it

    Because she will likely win, with the members, if she reaches the final two with Sunak
    Truss is a near certainty I'd have thought: blonde, female, Maggie thing and will do Continuity Boris. There's not anything for the membership not to like.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    edited July 2022
    Sandpit said:

    I am rooting for Penny too, now we know her as woke and will take the Tory Party on over woke issues and put them right.

    The two biggest threats facing the Conservatives today are the mess they are getting into over woke, and the mess they will be in if they oppose Net Zero 2050 and green taxes to get us there. Those two things can keep them out of power for decades.

    So, by how much further should prices for petrol and domestic fuel be allowed to rise, in order to maintain the commitment to Net Zero?

    A question on which it would be useful to see some polling in Con/Lab marginal seats.
    The Tories will put themselves out of power for a long time if they oppose the electorate on NET zero.

    https://www.ukonward.com/reports/taking-the-temperature/

    The tangle Tories are in over woke, and mess they could get in opposing Net zero, are the two biggest electoral threats to them, how they are dealt with in this leadership election are very important.

    I’m convinced of this, but also reasonably open minded if you can post something to prove otherwise
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821

    Can anyone remember the name of the poster who had Sri Lankan links back in the Cameron days?

    Murali_s - he still posts from time to time.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,785

    Seen a lot of mask use out and about today.

    Has 3/10 Apocalypse on monoliths sparked a national concern?

    Oddly enough - I've seen the opposite. Even the local pharmacy who were still all masked up when I popped by a couple of weeks ago are now a mask-free zone.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842

    Quite a thread:

    So here's my collection of Braverman's low points


    https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/1545694173629644800

    To be fair, he is hardly an unbiased source here.

    His allegiance is pretty clear
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    I’m old enough to remember @HYUFD telling us that Wallace was definitely going to stand and definitely going to win.

    I hope you are old enough to remember me saying he was going to ask his family, because being PM in Downing Street wasn't necessarily something he had signed his family up for.

    And lo, it came to pass.
    Being front man isn’t for everyone. But in my opinion Wallace would make a great Willy to a Lady Thatcher. You can imagining him as the stand in when PM on holiday. Perfect deputy so still huge part to play.
    Knew someone who worked hard for a promotion once but after about a year requested to return to their old post. No major scandals or anything, they just didnt enjoy it, didnt think they were a good fit for it after all, and were not confident they could achieve what was needed.

    I always admired their self reflection and acting on it.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:
    I’m starting to think Truss will get it

    Because she will likely win, with the members, if she reaches the final two with Sunak
    Neither will win. BTW the more people say they are not standing, the better Kemi looks.

    If I were SKS, Mordaunt and Badenoch are the two who would trouble me most. They would be like facing Shane Warne; the others are gentle medium pace. Rishi least use of all. Immense ammunition against him.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:
    I’m starting to think Truss will get it

    Because she will likely win, with the members, if she reaches the final two with Sunak
    Truss is a near certainty I'd have thought: blonde, female, Maggie thing and will do Continuity Boris. There's not anything for the membership not to like.
    But she sounds nothing like Maggie, more like May.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    I honestly don't know if this is a joke or not

    A source at Number 10 tells me that Boris Johnson intends to stand down as Prime Minister on Monday, in order to run for the Tory leadership.

    https://twitter.com/PetronellaWyatt/status/1545755462292971520
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592

    Can anyone remember the name of the poster who had Sri Lankan links back in the Cameron days?

    Murali_s - he still posts from time to time.
    Thanks, that's the gent. I wonder what he thinks about what is happening over there today...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,835
    Very ordinary bowling from Willey. Again.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Lord Ashcroft:

    Many will be disappointed that @BWallaceMP has not thrown his hat in the ring to be the next leader of the Conservative Party... on the other hand he will during this turbulent time ensure the security of the U.K. and uninterrupted support of Ukraine. Ben Wallace...class act...

    https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/1545736359322820608
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:
    I’m starting to think Truss will get it

    Because she will likely win, with the members, if she reaches the final two with Sunak
    Truss is a near certainty I'd have thought: blonde, female, Maggie thing and will do Continuity Boris. There's not anything for the membership not to like.
    But she sounds nothing like Maggie, more like May.
    No contest. Lightweight. Nothing solid.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:

    BigGs support for Sunak makes no sense.

    Work out HYUFD for remainer Tom :D
    Remainer, Catholic or Jewish, proactively pro choice pro gay marriage tom. Some reboot
    Tugendhat isn't particularly pro abortion and voted against assisted suicide, given I was a Remainer being a Remainer but respecting Brexit like Tugendhat not a problem for me
    But it's ok to suggest Leaver Sunak was part of a Remainer plot?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:

    BigGs support for Sunak makes no sense.

    Work out HYUFD for remainer Tom :D
    Remainer, Catholic or Jewish, proactively pro choice pro gay marriage tom. Some reboot
    Tugendhat isn't particularly pro abortion and voted against assisted suicide, given I was a Remainer being a Remainer but respecting Brexit like Tugendhat not a problem for me
    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/may-urged-to-end-northern-ireland-ban-on-abortion-and-gay-marriage-as-tory-mps-join-labour-bid-to-change-law_uk_5bcefca5e4b0a8f17ef05bf2

    He was proactive in bringing NI into line on gay marriage and abortion
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,018
    edited July 2022
    DavidL said:

    Why the bloody hell are England going with so many bowlers again....

    Livingstone, Ali and Curran can all bat in fairness.
    There is batting and there is batting. Willey, Curran can bat, but aren't going to take the game away from you like Salt, Roy, Buttler, Livingstone and when selected Bairstow and Stokes. We don't need Willey, Curran, Gleeson, Jordan and Parkinson, when Livingstone and Ali give you overs. I honestly wouldn't bother with Parkinson, he isn't Rashid in terms of world class spinner and is crap batter and fielder.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Times comment team is leading the charge for Rishi Sunak & proposing the contest be truncated to a fortnight (favours the front runner) and stripped of members’ vote. The paper has 3 news stories helpful to Sunak too.

    Reminder: The last “coronation” picked Theresa May https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/1545759634497183744/photo/1

    The sort of elitist attitude that led to things like Brexit and Trump. Casually deciding that the rank and file shouldn't have a vote, because the people at the top know best.
    Classic Rishi, frankly.
    Remember how he got quite angry when someone asked the mildest of questions about the non-dom thing?
    Yes, very whiny. Not a good sign for improved standards either, as he pretended spousal interests are irrelevant when laws from this government make it clear they are.

    Affable personality, but perhaps no more inclined to take criticism well.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557

    Seen a lot of mask use out and about today.

    Has 3/10 Apocalypse on monoliths sparked a national concern?

    Whereabouts?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    Scott_xP said:

    I honestly don't know if this is a joke or not

    A source at Number 10 tells me that Boris Johnson intends to stand down as Prime Minister on Monday, in order to run for the Tory leadership.

    https://twitter.com/PetronellaWyatt/status/1545755462292971520

    She does have form with Boris

    I can actually see him giving thought to such a move. It would end in more humiliation but he is not thinking rationally at the moment.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,900
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:
    I’m starting to think Truss will get it

    Because she will likely win, with the members, if she reaches the final two with Sunak
    When does Liz Truss need to declare in time for the Sunday papers? She has looked as if lining up a bid for the last couple of years so leaving it late may be a carefully considered plan, but is she having second thoughts?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,164
    edited July 2022
    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    In answer to Jolyon:

    Seeing as there's quite a bit of chat going around the Tories choosing someone from a visible ethnic minority as their new leader, here are some quick thoughts from focus groups where I've asked Tory *voters* - not members - this question in focus groups recently...

    So could a black or brown Tory win a general election? Emphatically yes.


    https://twitter.com/gabrielmilland/status/1545700462896218113

    Found it.

    This is what Jolyon said, then deleted:


    I really didn't think Maugham could go down further in my estimation but once again I underestimated him.
    Maugham is actually disgusting.
    Coward too - his 'white people agreed I should delete but people of colour said it was ok' makes his deletion pointless, and ignores plenty of commentators.
    He's doubling down, too:

    Am taking no lectures on racism from Parliamentarians in a Party that chose as its leader a man who described black people as "picaninies", which introduced the racist National and Borders Act, which introduced Voter ID to make it disproportionately more difficult for...

    people of colour to vote, which commissioned a report bizarrely denying the existence of institutional racism, which (also) gaslit survivors of the Windrush generation, which has just appointed as Commissioner of the Met a white man who blamed a "lack of integration" for the...

    rise of the Far Right, whose community website (Conservative Home) shows the top four positions for the leadership all occupied by white people, which introduced the hostile environment, which has been called out by its own former Chair (Baroness Warsi) for racism...

    which fielded a white candidate in the Mayoral election who ran a racist campaign suggesting his Muslim opponent was a terrorist sympathiser, which is systematically stripping away access to legal protections which disproportionately benefit people of colour...

    which objected to the England football team taking the knee to show solidarity with black people experiencing racism, which has run an intellectually deceitful campaign to try and hide the truth behind our colonial past, which has defended statues of slave traders and racists...

    And I'm barely getting started.

    I'm not going to apologise for calling out your racism - and if you actually give a damn about it, I'd suggest tackling that list is a better use of your time rather than plastic fury about my tweet.

    Get in the sea.

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1545643918372573184

    Some of that is a bit of a stretch. And some is walking the edge.

    I think that during this campaign the reactions are going to be as interesting as the candidates, as various peeps try to defend the inerrant truth of their presumptions.
  • kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    In answer to Jolyon:

    Seeing as there's quite a bit of chat going around the Tories choosing someone from a visible ethnic minority as their new leader, here are some quick thoughts from focus groups where I've asked Tory *voters* - not members - this question in focus groups recently...

    So could a black or brown Tory win a general election? Emphatically yes.


    https://twitter.com/gabrielmilland/status/1545700462896218113

    Found it.

    This is what Jolyon said, then deleted:


    I really didn't think Maugham could go down further in my estimation but once again I underestimated him.
    Maugham is actually disgusting.
    Coward too - his 'white people agreed I should delete but people of colour said it was ok' makes his deletion pointless, and ignores plenty of commentators.
    Nice article in response
    https://www.newstatesman.com/quickfire/2022/07/its-absurd-to-say-the-conservative-party-isnt-ready-for-a-non-white-leader
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Tres said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I’m really enjoying this Tory leader contest. I’m a sick man.
    the decent tory party of normal types like John Major is looking like it's rescinding ever further into history
    Normal people no longer join political parties.

    They do still usually pick not the weirdest for their MPs, but still not normal.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Scott_xP said:

    I honestly don't know if this is a joke or not

    A source at Number 10 tells me that Boris Johnson intends to stand down as Prime Minister on Monday, in order to run for the Tory leadership.

    https://twitter.com/PetronellaWyatt/status/1545755462292971520

    With a bit of luck he’d be eliminated in the first round - humiliation complete.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497
    Scott_xP said:

    I honestly don't know if this is a joke or not

    A source at Number 10 tells me that Boris Johnson intends to stand down as Prime Minister on Monday, in order to run for the Tory leadership.

    https://twitter.com/PetronellaWyatt/status/1545755462292971520

    I don't suppose it's true, but the sense you get with Boris is a bit as with Trump. He is PM today, and intends to remain so if he can. He is absolutely PM until he isn't, ansd lives in No 10 until someone else does. Undertakings count for nothing whatsoever. He will certainly be hoping that, as usual, something turns up. That is why he is still there.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    MrEd said:


    Yes, the press trying to make this a coronation for Rishi. Hopefully not? he's actually an awful pick. Badenoch might be interesting to look at - picking up some RW nominations

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    I am rooting for Penny too, now we know her as woke and will take the Tory Party on over woke issues and put them right.

    The two biggest threats facing the Conservatives today are the mess they are getting into over woke, and the mess they will be in if they oppose Net Zero 2050 and green taxes to get us there. Those two things can keep them out of power for decades.

    So, by how much further should prices for petrol and domestic fuel be allowed to rise, in order to maintain the commitment to Net Zero?

    A question on which it would be useful to see some polling in Con/Lab marginal seats.
    Fuel prices aren't rising because of the commitment to net zero.
    The failure to cut fuel duty and VAT on domestic fuel - which is probably the largest single factor in current rising inflation, has Net Zero and Treasury capture all over it.

    My two big reservations about Rishi, are that he’s too rich to notice the effect of fuel prices on average people, and that he was totally housetrained by the Treasury mandarins.
    Not to mention that the last budget attempted to square the circle on the backs of the very poorest.

    Also, have we all forgotten the Great Barrington Declaration? Rishi was sympathetic to fringe voices suggesting lockdowns weren’t necessary at all - this was pre-vaccine…

    He also seems to think freeports are a golden ticket, and of course he effectively spiked levelling up.

    If you look closely, he’s got very poor judgment.
    The press love a fractious contest, but also dislike stories dragging on too long.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,164

    Scott_xP said:

    I honestly don't know if this is a joke or not

    A source at Number 10 tells me that Boris Johnson intends to stand down as Prime Minister on Monday, in order to run for the Tory leadership.

    https://twitter.com/PetronellaWyatt/status/1545755462292971520

    She does have form with Boris

    I can actually see him giving thought to such a move. It would end in more humiliation but he is not thinking rationally at the moment.
    I don't know where Petsy Aspasia stands wrt BJ these days.

    She definitely knows that he has high 'being a shit' capabilities.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    Andy_JS said:

    Seen a lot of mask use out and about today.

    Has 3/10 Apocalypse on monoliths sparked a national concern?

    Whereabouts?
    London. By the river. Mostly on old fogeys over forty though.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361
    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Times comment team is leading the charge for Rishi Sunak & proposing the contest be truncated to a fortnight (favours the front runner) and stripped of members’ vote. The paper has 3 news stories helpful to Sunak too.

    Reminder: The last “coronation” picked Theresa May https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/1545759634497183744/photo/1

    A coronation is the last thing the Tories need.
    They need to have it out, and decide what they stand for.
    They need to pick the best candidate for leader, but I don't know whether a long or a short contest makes that more likely. Easy to criticise May, but if it had gone to a members vote and Leadsom had won instead, would that have been better?

    Interesting to see if Wallace can get a good deal out of Sunak, or if he'll choose to support someone else to try and stop him. If he doesn't support him, and Sunak wins anyway, then he's in a weaker position.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,720

    Scott_xP said:

    I honestly don't know if this is a joke or not

    A source at Number 10 tells me that Boris Johnson intends to stand down as Prime Minister on Monday, in order to run for the Tory leadership.

    https://twitter.com/PetronellaWyatt/status/1545755462292971520

    With a bit of luck he’d be eliminated in the first round - humiliation complete.
    Why does he need to stand down to do that? He hasn't lost a VONC.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220

    Scott_xP said:

    I honestly don't know if this is a joke or not

    A source at Number 10 tells me that Boris Johnson intends to stand down as Prime Minister on Monday, in order to run for the Tory leadership.

    https://twitter.com/PetronellaWyatt/status/1545755462292971520

    She does have form with Boris

    I can actually see him giving thought to such a move. It would end in more humiliation but he is not thinking rationally at the moment.
    Something similar to the Jezza tactic- take it to his fans in the country (who are probably more numerous and concentrated in the Conservative party than most people would like to admit?).

    For it to work, he'd need the backing of 1/3 of MPs. I don't think he has that- does he?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:
    I’m starting to think Truss will get it

    Because she will likely win, with the members, if she reaches the final two with Sunak
    Truss is a near certainty I'd have thought: blonde, female, Maggie thing and will do Continuity Boris. There's not anything for the membership not to like.
    But she sounds nothing like Maggie, more like May.
    I don’t think anyone got your clever pun, Sunil! LOL
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    In answer to Jolyon:

    Seeing as there's quite a bit of chat going around the Tories choosing someone from a visible ethnic minority as their new leader, here are some quick thoughts from focus groups where I've asked Tory *voters* - not members - this question in focus groups recently...

    So could a black or brown Tory win a general election? Emphatically yes.


    https://twitter.com/gabrielmilland/status/1545700462896218113

    Found it.

    This is what Jolyon said, then deleted:


    I really didn't think Maugham could go down further in my estimation but once again I underestimated him.
    Maugham is actually disgusting.
    Coward too - his 'white people agreed I should delete but people of colour said it was ok' makes his deletion pointless, and ignores plenty of commentators.
    Nice article in response
    https://www.newstatesman.com/quickfire/2022/07/its-absurd-to-say-the-conservative-party-isnt-ready-for-a-non-white-leader

    By my count the Conservative leadership election is already the most ethnically diverse leadership election in the history of British politics, after the most diverse cabinet in history, in the most diverse parliament in history.

    Compare & contrast with the EU. All EU Commissioners by my count are white, as are almost all EU Heads of State, as is 96% of the European Parliament. Senior levels of EU politics are remarkably homogeneous.


    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1545474882493992960

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402

    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Times comment team is leading the charge for Rishi Sunak & proposing the contest be truncated to a fortnight (favours the front runner) and stripped of members’ vote. The paper has 3 news stories helpful to Sunak too.

    Reminder: The last “coronation” picked Theresa May https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/1545759634497183744/photo/1

    The sort of elitist attitude that led to things like Brexit and Trump. Casually deciding that the rank and file shouldn't have a vote, because the people at the top know best.
    Classic Rishi, frankly.
    Remember how he got quite angry when someone asked the mildest of questions about the non-dom thing?
    He should.prepare to get volcanic then.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited July 2022

    Scott_xP said:

    I honestly don't know if this is a joke or not

    A source at Number 10 tells me that Boris Johnson intends to stand down as Prime Minister on Monday, in order to run for the Tory leadership.

    https://twitter.com/PetronellaWyatt/status/1545755462292971520

    She does have form with Boris

    I can actually see him giving thought to such a move. It would end in more humiliation but he is not thinking rationally at the moment.
    Something similar to the Jezza tactic- take it to his fans in the country (who are probably more numerous and concentrated in the Conservative party than most people would like to admit?).

    For it to work, he'd need the backing of 1/3 of MPs. I don't think he has that- does he?
    I don’t know the mechanics, but if it comes to a Sunak v Truss battle, I think a decent section of the parliamentary party might even consider a Boris revival.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    MattW said:

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    In answer to Jolyon:

    Seeing as there's quite a bit of chat going around the Tories choosing someone from a visible ethnic minority as their new leader, here are some quick thoughts from focus groups where I've asked Tory *voters* - not members - this question in focus groups recently...

    So could a black or brown Tory win a general election? Emphatically yes.


    https://twitter.com/gabrielmilland/status/1545700462896218113

    Found it.

    This is what Jolyon said, then deleted:


    I really didn't think Maugham could go down further in my estimation but once again I underestimated him.
    Maugham is actually disgusting.
    Coward too - his 'white people agreed I should delete but people of colour said it was ok' makes his deletion pointless, and ignores plenty of commentators.
    He's doubling down, too:

    Am taking no lectures on racism from Parliamentarians in a Party that chose as its leader a man who described black people as "picaninies", which introduced the racist National and Borders Act, which introduced Voter ID to make it disproportionately more difficult for...

    people of colour to vote, which commissioned a report bizarrely denying the existence of institutional racism, which (also) gaslit survivors of the Windrush generation, which has just appointed as Commissioner of the Met a white man who blamed a "lack of integration" for the...

    rise of the Far Right, whose community website (Conservative Home) shows the top four positions for the leadership all occupied by white people, which introduced the hostile environment, which has been called out by its own former Chair (Baroness Warsi) for racism...

    which fielded a white candidate in the Mayoral election who ran a racist campaign suggesting his Muslim opponent was a terrorist sympathiser, which is systematically stripping away access to legal protections which disproportionately benefit people of colour...

    which objected to the England football team taking the knee to show solidarity with black people experiencing racism, which has run an intellectually deceitful campaign to try and hide the truth behind our colonial past, which has defended statues of slave traders and racists...

    And I'm barely getting started.

    I'm not going to apologise for calling out your racism - and if you actually give a damn about it, I'd suggest tackling that list is a better use of your time rather than plastic fury about my tweet.

    Get in the sea.

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1545643918372573184

    Some of that is a bit of a stretch. And some is walking the edge.

    I think that during this campaign the reactions are going to be as interesting as the candidates, as various peeps try to defend the inerrant truth of their presumptions.
    Even if what he says is true, it doesnt disguise or counter what he said and clearly intended - that he is going the route he is shows why his 'clarification' of what he meant was a lie.

    Indeed, by deleting hes undercut his attempts to push back since he implicitly accepts what he said was wrong.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    edited July 2022



    Why does he need to stand down to do that? He hasn't lost a VONC.


    I thought it had already been established that it was against the rules for Boris to stand.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    In answer to Jolyon:

    Seeing as there's quite a bit of chat going around the Tories choosing someone from a visible ethnic minority as their new leader, here are some quick thoughts from focus groups where I've asked Tory *voters* - not members - this question in focus groups recently...

    So could a black or brown Tory win a general election? Emphatically yes.


    https://twitter.com/gabrielmilland/status/1545700462896218113

    Found it.

    This is what Jolyon said, then deleted:


    I really didn't think Maugham could go down further in my estimation but once again I underestimated him.
    Maugham is actually disgusting.
    Coward too - his 'white people agreed I should delete but people of colour said it was ok' makes his deletion pointless, and ignores plenty of commentators.
    Nice article in response
    https://www.newstatesman.com/quickfire/2022/07/its-absurd-to-say-the-conservative-party-isnt-ready-for-a-non-white-leader
    I currently don't plan to vote Tory - for the first time in decades. The New Statesman makes a case for voting Tory which is remarkably persuasive, without even meaning to. The NS has become a remarkably non dogmatic journal.

  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:
    I’m starting to think Truss will get it

    Because she will likely win, with the members, if she reaches the final two with Sunak
    When does Liz Truss need to declare in time for the Sunday papers? She has looked as if lining up a bid for the last couple of years so leaving it late may be a carefully considered plan, but is she having second thoughts?
    Does she nee these papers?

    Parliamentary process first, I would be more concerned about the timing of my announcement vis-à-vis getting MPs' votes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    In answer to Jolyon:

    Seeing as there's quite a bit of chat going around the Tories choosing someone from a visible ethnic minority as their new leader, here are some quick thoughts from focus groups where I've asked Tory *voters* - not members - this question in focus groups recently...

    So could a black or brown Tory win a general election? Emphatically yes.


    https://twitter.com/gabrielmilland/status/1545700462896218113

    Found it.

    This is what Jolyon said, then deleted:


    I really didn't think Maugham could go down further in my estimation but once again I underestimated him.
    Maugham is actually disgusting.
    Coward too - his 'white people agreed I should delete but people of colour said it was ok' makes his deletion pointless, and ignores plenty of commentators.
    Nice article in response
    https://www.newstatesman.com/quickfire/2022/07/its-absurd-to-say-the-conservative-party-isnt-ready-for-a-non-white-leader

    By my count the Conservative leadership election is already the most ethnically diverse leadership election in the history of British politics, after the most diverse cabinet in history, in the most diverse parliament in history.

    Compare & contrast with the EU. All EU Commissioners by my count are white, as are almost all EU Heads of State, as is 96% of the European Parliament. Senior levels of EU politics are remarkably homogeneous.


    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1545474882493992960

    I think the New Statesman article is broadly correct, though its certainty the first black/Asian leader will be a Conservative is over confident. Certainly a decent bet but it's not certain.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361
    Scott_xP said:

    I honestly don't know if this is a joke or not

    A source at Number 10 tells me that Boris Johnson intends to stand down as Prime Minister on Monday, in order to run for the Tory leadership.

    https://twitter.com/PetronellaWyatt/status/1545755462292971520

    He can't stand if he's resigned, but he never said he'd resigned. I'm not sure there can be a leadership contest unless he resigns (as leader), so logically I think there either can't be a contest, or he can't participate in it.

    Presumably the 1922 committee will simply rule his nomination as out of order. Could it be challenged in the courts?

    Don't think this is happening.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,835
    Gleeson is probably scared he's going to wake up any second.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    So much for “The Times is ramping Rishi”:

    You’ve probably heard that I’m running for the party leadership. It’s important you understand why. My article in The Times today 👇 https://thetimes.co.uk/article/kemi-badenoch-i-want-to-set-us-free-by-telling-people-the-truth-85sk8prm9

    https://twitter.com/KemiBadenoch/status/1545652723533627394

    Tweet includes copy of article
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,916
    edited July 2022
    Hell of a start for Gleeson; Sharma and Kohli in his first seven balls!

    And Pant with the eighth!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    edited July 2022

    Scott_xP said:

    I honestly don't know if this is a joke or not

    A source at Number 10 tells me that Boris Johnson intends to stand down as Prime Minister on Monday, in order to run for the Tory leadership.

    https://twitter.com/PetronellaWyatt/status/1545755462292971520

    He can't stand if he's resigned, but he never said he'd resigned. I'm not sure there can be a leadership contest unless he resigns (as leader), so logically I think there either can't be a contest, or he can't participate in it.

    Presumably the 1922 committee will simply rule his nomination as out of order. Could it be challenged in the courts?

    Don't think this is happening.
    Think some Labour people challenged leadership contest elements, but party rulebook are in think broad enough about flexible rules that itd be very hard to say there was procedural irregularity.

    Thst no.10 source is dreaming. Members might still like him but MPs made their choice, he isnt getting into the final two even if he could stand.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,835

    Hell of a start for Gleeson; Sharma and Kohli in his first seven balls!

    And Pant with the eighth!

    And Pant!!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    If Hunt doesn't stand, it leaves Tugendhat as the only white male in the contest.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,835
    Andy_JS said:

    If Hunt doesn't stand, it leaves Tugendhat as the only white male in the contest.

    I tell you, it's discrimination!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:
    I’m starting to think Truss will get it

    Because she will likely win, with the members, if she reaches the final two with Sunak
    Truss is a near certainty I'd have thought: blonde, female, Maggie thing and will do Continuity Boris. There's not anything for the membership not to like.
    You would have to be both under 50 and monumentally dim to think there was any Truss Maggie equivalence
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    the british press is the most independent and impartial in the world and they’ve held this government to account.

    now here’s an article from boris johnson’s father, michael gove’s wife, carrie johnson’s ex bf, boris johnson’s sister, and the magazine boris johnson used to run


    https://twitter.com/demarionunn/status/1545360136234991616
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    So much for “The Times is ramping Rishi”:

    You’ve probably heard that I’m running for the party leadership. It’s important you understand why. My article in The Times today 👇 https://thetimes.co.uk/article/kemi-badenoch-i-want-to-set-us-free-by-telling-people-the-truth-85sk8prm9

    https://twitter.com/KemiBadenoch/status/1545652723533627394

    Tweet includes copy of article

    That’s very crisp prose, and a sturdy defence of limited government and freedom of expression.
This discussion has been closed.