Are red wall MPs really going to get behind cuts to corporation tax? They are surely a substantial part of the MP electorate.
The redwall is probably mostly lost back to Labour anyway post Boris and now Brexit is done.
Best Tories can hope for is a 1992 or 2015 style scraped majority
Yep.
To be fair, any government going for a 5th election victory in a row would bit your hand off for a 1992/2015 victory.
The last time a party won 5 elections in a row was the Tories in 1900, however during those 5 elections they still ended up with Liberal PM on a couple of occasions, the last time a party won 5 straight elections without interruption of a different parties PM was 1830
1900 was the fourth win in a row - 1886, 1892, 1895 and 1900. The Tories lost in 1885.
Although Wikipedia unfortunately doesn’t understand this, being edited by Americans, the last time a party (the Conservatives) won five elections in a row was actually 1859, following wins in 1841, 1847, 1852 and 1857. However, although they were the largest party on each occasion only in 1841 did they win an overall majority and on every other occasion the Opposition parties combined to keep them/remove them from government.
If you think we are “hollowed out” then there is sone structural inefficiency compared to what we have done in living memory.
I think there is a huge amount of spending that just happens because someone once thought it was a good idea and it is hard to challenge
You have to account for the demographic burden which is “worth” a percent or two per decade in pension spending, health pressures etc.
Like for like we are probably at a 50 year low, and the candidates are proposing to slice further.
Do you have any convincing maths on that?
Pensioners now contribute for an extra 3 years before getting any state pensions, compared to 15-20 years ago.
Whilst life expectancy is up by 5 years or so since 1990.
Which sounds quite balanced.
If you think the demographic burden is a fiction, you are living in a hole.
I found this at the ONS site.
…As a result, State Pension spending has continued to rise in recent decades. It amounted to almost £92 billion in 2017 (equivalent to 5.1% of GDP), up from £26 billion in 1992 (3.6% of GDP). Based on current population projections, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicts that state pension expenditure will rise to 6.1% of GDP by 2042.
That latter figure accounts for the rising pension age, too.
This figure does not include health burden arising from an elderly pop.
I remember in my council days looking at the inexorable rise in the charge made to London councils for the free travel passes for the over 60s (which mayor reduced the age as a freebie for the oldies, knowing that the cost would fall onto the Boroughs? I wonder what happened to him). Some years the extra cost accounted for a significant slice of the council tax rise, yet I doubt most Londoners realise how it is costing them.
Twitter Penny Mordaunt@PennyMordaunt I hope in, in the next few days we’ll able to discuss how we get our economy growing again and enable our citizens to live well. Right now, I’d like to address another question that I’ve been asked: https://twitter.com/PennyMordaunt/status/1545908402475438080
Penny Mordaunt@PennyMordaunt·19mReplying to @PennyMordaunt Yes I do. I am a woman. (here’s a recent pic on me in from @thetimes ). I always dress in a swimsuit for the newspapers. Like many of you, I’m used to being patronised & misrepresented. Thank you @ashleyljames
Penny Mordaunt@PennyMordaunt·21mReplying to @PennyMordaunt I am biologically a woman. If I have a hysterectomy or mastectomy, I am still a woman. And I am legally a woman. Some people born male and who have been through the gender recognition process are also legally female. That DOES NOT mean they are biological women, like me.
Penny Mordaunt@PennyMordaunt·23m All my life, I’ve fought for gender equality. I’ve stood up for women. I’ve listened to them. I’ve been right alongside them in every major battle. I make sure policy is focussed on them. Just look at my track record. Link to continue the thread. https://twitter.com/PennyMordaunt/status/1545908445748117505
Wow. Takes it straight on, wins, and looks eminently reasonable:
She could do something here…
Certainly shows she knows what area is considered her biggest weakness.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. The British public are not evil on this, but nor are they willing to agree with demonstrable nonsense. Her line combined with “for God’s sake be polite, address people how they wish to be addressed, and let them act as the gender they wish to when it affects no one else’s rights” is where the public are.
The weakness is as perceived by the selectorate not the electorate.
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Although Wikipedia unfortunately doesn’t understand this, being edited by Americans, the last time a party (the Conservatives) won five elections in a row was actually 1859, following wins in 1841, 1847, 1852 and 1857. However, although they were the largest party on each occasion only in 1841 did they win an overall majority and on every other occasion the Opposition parties combined to keep them/remove them from government.