Because she will likely win, with the members, if she reaches the final two with Sunak
It’s timing. If Boris resigned in Feb, Rishi would have got it. Now Truss will beat Rishi in the run off I am pretty certain.
If it were for LOTO with five years of opposition ahead of them, interesting up and commers like Tom and Penny having good chance rather than no chance.
A poster yesterday described Zahari the candidate for people who like slithering reptiles 🤣
Can anyone remember the name of the poster who had Sri Lankan links back in the Cameron days?
Murali_s - he still posts from time to time.
Thanks, that's the gent. I wonder what he thinks about what is happening over there today...
I'm afraid Sri Lanka is an example of what happens when a Government gives its rich friends huge tax cuts which effectively leads to a financial crisis as there's not enough tax revenue coming in to fund foreign exchange purchases so the country runs out of small things like food and fuel.
Rather like the taxation system prior to the Revolution in France where those with real wealth hardly paid any tax at all.
In Sri Lanka, not surprisingly, the poor who cannot afford basic necessities such as food and fuel have decided to emulate their French forebears and break wind in the palaces of the mighty (well, the President's palace anyway). The President and Prime Minister have effectively run away - none of which of course gets the poor any food or fuel.
Seeing as there's quite a bit of chat going around the Tories choosing someone from a visible ethnic minority as their new leader, here are some quick thoughts from focus groups where I've asked Tory *voters* - not members - this question in focus groups recently...
So could a black or brown Tory win a general election? Emphatically yes.
I really didn't think Maugham could go down further in my estimation but once again I underestimated him.
Maugham is actually disgusting.
Coward too - his 'white people agreed I should delete but people of colour said it was ok' makes his deletion pointless, and ignores plenty of commentators.
He's doubling down, too:
Am taking no lectures on racism from Parliamentarians in a Party that chose as its leader a man who described black people as "picaninies", which introduced the racist National and Borders Act, which introduced Voter ID to make it disproportionately more difficult for...
people of colour to vote, which commissioned a report bizarrely denying the existence of institutional racism, which (also) gaslit survivors of the Windrush generation, which has just appointed as Commissioner of the Met a white man who blamed a "lack of integration" for the...
rise of the Far Right, whose community website (Conservative Home) shows the top four positions for the leadership all occupied by white people, which introduced the hostile environment, which has been called out by its own former Chair (Baroness Warsi) for racism...
which fielded a white candidate in the Mayoral election who ran a racist campaign suggesting his Muslim opponent was a terrorist sympathiser, which is systematically stripping away access to legal protections which disproportionately benefit people of colour...
which objected to the England football team taking the knee to show solidarity with black people experiencing racism, which has run an intellectually deceitful campaign to try and hide the truth behind our colonial past, which has defended statues of slave traders and racists...
And I'm barely getting started.
I'm not going to apologise for calling out your racism - and if you actually give a damn about it, I'd suggest tackling that list is a better use of your time rather than plastic fury about my tweet.
Some of that is a bit of a stretch. And some is walking the edge.
I think that during this campaign the reactions are going to be as interesting as the candidates, as various peeps try to defend the inerrant truth of their presumptions.
Even if what he says is true, it doesnt disguise or counter what he said and clearly intended - that he is going the route he is shows why his 'clarification' of what he meant was a lie.
Indeed, by deleting hes undercut his attempts to push back since he implicitly accepts what he said was wrong.
As JK Rowling memorably observed on another topic - but applies here too:
Dear God. When your spade starts melting in the molten heat of the earth's core, stop digging. #JohnsonMustGo
I am rooting for Penny too, now we know her as woke and will take the Tory Party on over woke issues and put them right.
The two biggest threats facing the Conservatives today are the mess they are getting into over woke, and the mess they will be in if they oppose Net Zero 2050 and green taxes to get us there. Those two things can keep them out of power for decades.
So, by how much further should prices for petrol and domestic fuel be allowed to rise, in order to maintain the commitment to Net Zero?
A question on which it would be useful to see some polling in Con/Lab marginal seats.
Fuel prices aren't rising because of the commitment to net zero.
The failure to cut fuel duty and VAT on domestic fuel - which is probably the largest single factor in current rising inflation, has Net Zero and Treasury capture all over it.
My two big reservations about Rishi, are that he’s too rich to notice the effect of fuel prices on average people, and that he was totally housetrained by the Treasury mandarins.
What Rishi needs is a non-comprised Andy Coulson type, somebody who has an idea about normal folk and is well connected to the media to know how to sell it.
It appears Rishi campiagn is being run by yet another posho PR whipper snapper, i am sure is good on making the flashy PR vids but less sure any more clue about normal folk.
Yes, very much so. There were very good reasons behind the lengths Dave went to, in order to save Coulson back in 2011.
Because she will likely win, with the members, if she reaches the final two with Sunak
It’s timing. If Boris resigned in Feb, Rishi would have got it. Now Truss will beat Rishi in the run off I am pretty certain.
If it were for LOTO with five years of opposition ahead of them, interesting up and commers like Tom and Penny having good chance rather than no chance.
A poster yesterday described Zahari the candidate for people who like slithering reptiles 🤣
For some reason, the Ladies' Singles Final at Wimbledon isn't getting mentioned much on here.
Jabeur took the first set 6-3 but is 3-1 down to Ryabakina in the second. Jabeur had four break points in the second set but missed them all. That could be costly.
I am rooting for Penny too, now we know her as woke and will take the Tory Party on over woke issues and put them right.
The two biggest threats facing the Conservatives today are the mess they are getting into over woke, and the mess they will be in if they oppose Net Zero 2050 and green taxes to get us there. Those two things can keep them out of power for decades.
So, by how much further should prices for petrol and domestic fuel be allowed to rise, in order to maintain the commitment to Net Zero?
A question on which it would be useful to see some polling in Con/Lab marginal seats.
The Tories will put themselves out of power for a long time if they oppose the electorate on NET zero.
The tangle Tories are in over woke, and mess they could get in opposing Net zero, are the two biggest electoral threats to them, how they are dealt with in this leadership election are very important.
I’m convinced of this, but also reasonably open minded if you can post something to prove otherwise
Both issues are fringe issues. The problem is that they matter very much to political minorities. People don't really see the woke stuff. It isn't very salient. As for net zero, I can see with my own eyes that people aren't really interested. Massive queues at the airport, more traffic on the road than ever, people driving 0.3 miles to take their children to school, etc etc. Even people that claim to be pro environmentalist, are often the worst offenders. The cost of food and heating. below inflation pay etc, however is going to lead to massive political reckoning.
the british press is the most independent and impartial in the world and they’ve held this government to account.
now here’s an article from boris johnson’s father, michael gove’s wife, carrie johnson’s ex bf, boris johnson’s sister, and the magazine boris johnson used to run
Remainer, Catholic or Jewish, proactively pro choice pro gay marriage tom. Some reboot
Tugendhat isn't particularly pro abortion and voted against assisted suicide, given I was a Remainer being a Remainer but respecting Brexit like Tugendhat not a problem for me
For some reason, the Ladies' Singles Final at Wimbledon isn't getting mentioned much on here.
Jabeur took the first set 6-3 but is 3-1 down to Ryabakina in the second. Jabeur had four break points in the second set but missed them all. That could be costly.
Because she will likely win, with the members, if she reaches the final two with Sunak
It’s timing. If Boris resigned in Feb, Rishi would have got it. Now Truss will beat Rishi in the run off I am pretty certain.
If it were for LOTO with five years of opposition ahead of them, interesting up and commers like Tom and Penny having good chance rather than no chance.
A poster yesterday described Zahari the candidate for people who like slithering reptiles 🤣
My finest hour.
I called him a snake first. @YBarddCwsc pointed out the contract killer angle.
Because she will likely win, with the members, if she reaches the final two with Sunak
It’s timing. If Boris resigned in Feb, Rishi would have got it. Now Truss will beat Rishi in the run off I am pretty certain.
If it were for LOTO with five years of opposition ahead of them, interesting up and commers like Tom and Penny having good chance rather than no chance.
A poster yesterday described Zahari the candidate for people who like slithering reptiles 🤣
My finest hour.
I called him a snake first. @YBarddCwsc pointed out the contract killer angle.
Seeing as there's quite a bit of chat going around the Tories choosing someone from a visible ethnic minority as their new leader, here are some quick thoughts from focus groups where I've asked Tory *voters* - not members - this question in focus groups recently...
So could a black or brown Tory win a general election? Emphatically yes.
It is noticeable that the so-called progressive party hasn't even come close to electing anything that a white male leader.
Quotas and so-called 'affirmative action' do not seem to work in attracting potential leaders.
How do you define “close”? Rebecca Long Bailey was second placed in 2020, although Starmer had a large lead. Yvette Cooper was third in 2015, only just behind second placed Burnham, albeit a long way behind Corbyn.
Hang on - didn't John Major resign to fight the 1995 leadership election? Maybe I'm wrong.
On that same basis, is Theresa May ineligible to stand because she was a leader and she resigned - does that mean no ex-leader can ever be leader again?
Hang on - didn't John Major resign to fight the 1995 leadership election? Maybe I'm wrong.
On that same basis, is Theresa May ineligible to stand because she was a leader and she resigned - does that mean no ex-leader can ever be leader again?
I think May is fine (in theory anyway) because of the word "subsequent". There's been a leadership election since May resigned. So I think if she wanted she could stand in one after. But I'm just guessing.
Hang on - didn't John Major resign to fight the 1995 leadership election? Maybe I'm wrong.
On that same basis, is Theresa May ineligible to stand because she was a leader and she resigned - does that mean no ex-leader can ever be leader again?
subsequent election - so Mrs May could stand (but she’s not that daft).
Hang on - didn't John Major resign to fight the 1995 leadership election? Maybe I'm wrong.
On that same basis, is Theresa May ineligible to stand because she was a leader and she resigned - does that mean no ex-leader can ever be leader again?
I am rooting for Penny too, now we know her as woke and will take the Tory Party on over woke issues and put them right.
The two biggest threats facing the Conservatives today are the mess they are getting into over woke, and the mess they will be in if they oppose Net Zero 2050 and green taxes to get us there. Those two things can keep them out of power for decades.
So, by how much further should prices for petrol and domestic fuel be allowed to rise, in order to maintain the commitment to Net Zero?
A question on which it would be useful to see some polling in Con/Lab marginal seats.
The Tories will put themselves out of power for a long time if they oppose the electorate on NET zero.
The tangle Tories are in over woke, and mess they could get in opposing Net zero, are the two biggest electoral threats to them, how they are dealt with in this leadership election are very important.
I’m convinced of this, but also reasonably open minded if you can post something to prove otherwise
Both issues are fringe issues. The problem is that they matter very much to political minorities. People don't really see the woke stuff. It isn't very salient. As for net zero, I can see with my own eyes that people aren't really interested. Massive queues at the airport, more traffic on the road than ever, people driving 0.3 miles to take their children to school, etc etc. Even people that claim to be pro environmentalist, are often the worst offenders. The cost of food and heating. below inflation pay etc, however is going to lead to massive political reckoning.
Net Zero is not a fringe political issue. It may be an issue where personal hypocrisy is evident, but that is another thing.
I'm not really clear if anyone is in a tangle over woke - for Tories so far it seems to be a fringe issue. Whether that will continue, I don't know. I guess it depends which bit of woke you are discussing.
I'm still confused. Is Boris eligible to run or not? I do hope he tries to, although I am in danger of becoming popcorn.
I mean lets all keep quiet. Let him stand down as PM which we all would like anyway then let him find out he cant stand, he has no power and he's yesterdays fool for all our tomorrows
Tom and HY both voted remain and remainers stick together thick as thieves in their watering down Brexit planning?
For clarification I do like Rishi and believe he would act responsibly with finance, but I am not averse to Tugendhat or Mordaunt but not convinced on Truss
However they all are infinitely better than Johnson and I am looking forward to watching the race and as importantly the new cabinet which I will support 100%
Johnson leaving has changed the entire political landscape
Seeing as there's quite a bit of chat going around the Tories choosing someone from a visible ethnic minority as their new leader, here are some quick thoughts from focus groups where I've asked Tory *voters* - not members - this question in focus groups recently...
So could a black or brown Tory win a general election? Emphatically yes.
It is noticeable that the so-called progressive party hasn't even come close to electing anything that a white male leader.
Quotas and so-called 'affirmative action' do not seem to work in attracting potential leaders.
How do you define “close”? Rebecca Long Bailey was second placed in 2020, although Starmer had a large lead. Yvette Cooper was third in 2015, only just behind second placed Burnham, albeit a long way behind Corbyn.
That's an "interesting case" because I think Burnham v. Cooper sans Corbyn would have seen Cooper win.
Our investigation into outside organisations providing sex education in schools uncovers material describing prostitution as “rewarding work” and promoting being locked in a cage, flogged, caned, beaten and slapped in the face. Story with @char_wace
It has sparked the debate about whether he has in fact resigned though
If he hasn't, then there isn't a vacancy for him to run for. At the risk of pointing out the obvious.
Has the PM actually resigned? Genuine Q…
“It is now clearly the will of the parliamentary conservative party that there should be a new leader of that party and therefore a new Prime Minister and I have agreed…the process of choosing that new leader should begin now”
It has sparked the debate about whether he has in fact resigned though
Yes, a bit like with the letter he apparently didn't send to Brussels requesting a Brexit extension, except there isn't even a letter in this case.
I'd have to read the Tory Party Constitution more closely to see if there's any way a leadership contest could take place, absent the death, resignation, or loss of confidence in the incumbent.
Hang on - didn't John Major resign to fight the 1995 leadership election? Maybe I'm wrong.
On that same basis, is Theresa May ineligible to stand because she was a leader and she resigned - does that mean no ex-leader can ever be leader again?
the rules were changed after Major
Yes but Boris didn't actually lose a vote which would have made himself ineligible. What a mess. The car crash is then run over by a steam roller. And then nuked from orbit. Just to be sure.
Tom and HY both voted remain and remainers stick together thick as thieves in their watering down Brexit planning?
For clarification I do like Rishi and believe he would act responsibly with finance, but I am not averse to Tugendhat or Mordaunt but not convinced on Truss
However they all are infinitely better than Johnson and I am looking forward to watching the race and as importantly the new cabinet which I will support 100%
Johnson leaving has changed the entire political landscape
In what way? No election winner leading the Tories?
Anyway you can bet on Sunak losing the membership vote? Because that's looking favourite to me.
If he loses it to Braverman people won't be able to accuse the members of being racists.
Well no. I just reckon, right now, it will be Sunak v AN Other. And I think the value is against him. I've pointed out he's never really had to campaign to win an election in his life. Others noted. He got really tetchy about some quite legitimate questions about his wife's tax status. And he's never faced a setback. He'll almost certainly face someone to his right. His tax policy won't be popular with the membership. Number 10 will be gunning for him. And will know some stuff. As the frontrunner, so will everyone else. None of those are to do with his race.
It has sparked the debate about whether he has in fact resigned though
If he hasn't, then there isn't a vacancy for him to run for. At the risk of pointing out the obvious.
Has the PM actually resigned? Genuine Q…
“It is now clearly the will of the parliamentary conservative party that there should be a new leader of that party and therefore a new Prime Minister and I have agreed…the process of choosing that new leader should begin now”
Im guessing this is something Old Lady Brady would have scrupulously checked Friday AM as he has no authority to start a race without something concrete id have thought?
Tom and HY both voted remain and remainers stick together thick as thieves in their watering down Brexit planning?
For clarification I do like Rishi and believe he would act responsibly with finance, but I am not averse to Tugendhat or Mordaunt but not convinced on Truss
However they all are infinitely better than Johnson and I am looking forward to watching the race and as importantly the new cabinet which I will support 100%
Johnson leaving has changed the entire political landscape
In what way? No election winner leading the Tories?
Tom and HY both voted remain and remainers stick together thick as thieves in their watering down Brexit planning?
For clarification I do like Rishi and believe he would act responsibly with finance, but I am not averse to Tugendhat or Mordaunt but not convinced on Truss
However they all are infinitely better than Johnson and I am looking forward to watching the race and as importantly the new cabinet which I will support 100%
Johnson leaving has changed the entire political landscape
In what way? No election winner leading the Tories?
Hang on - didn't John Major resign to fight the 1995 leadership election? Maybe I'm wrong.
On that same basis, is Theresa May ineligible to stand because she was a leader and she resigned - does that mean no ex-leader can ever be leader again?
the rules were changed after Major
Yes but Boris didn't actually lose a vote which would have made himself ineligible. What a mess. The car crash is then run over by a steam roller. And then nuked from orbit. Just to be sure.
Any attempt at jiggery or indeed pokery and its rule change, VONC, He's out as leader by Monday bedtime
I have long assumed that in a Sunak v Truss contest, Truss wins the membership. I wonder if @HYUFD and @MarqueeMark could confirm.
Kemi already has five supporters, same as Tugendhat and Truss.
Truss would likely win the membership
Yes I agree with PB consensus developing today, Truss wins this. But at least that is the very worst result for Labour as Truss is continuity Boris policies without the liar Boris - so Truss is best Tory candidate for holding the red wall and winning back lost women voters in the blue wall.
I have long assumed that in a Sunak v Truss contest, Truss wins the membership. I wonder if @HYUFD and @MarqueeMark could confirm.
Kemi already has five supporters, same as Tugendhat and Truss.
Truss would likely win the membership
Yes I agree with PB consensus developing today, Truss wins this. But at least that is the very worst result for Labour as Truss is continuity Boris policies without the liar Boris - so Truss is best Tory candidate for holding the red wall and winning back lost women voters in the blue wall.
I want to listen to both of them in the hustings if it goes to the membership but you do have a valid point and a third female conservative PM while labour obsess over Starmer and Streeting
Right now, this is Sunak's to lose. His momentum might simply get so large that the 2016 leadership election experience repeats itself with him overwhelming winning the MPs and just him and an also-ran going forward to the members, upon whom a huge amount of pressure is put upon to withdraw.
IMHO, the party will want to wrap this up by the end of July.
The candidates he should be worried about: Mordaunt, Badenoch and Truss.
Because she will likely win, with the members, if she reaches the final two with Sunak
It’s timing. If Boris resigned in Feb, Rishi would have got it. Now Truss will beat Rishi in the run off I am pretty certain.
If it were for LOTO with five years of opposition ahead of them, interesting up and commers like Tom and Penny having good chance rather than no chance.
A poster yesterday described Zahari the candidate for people who like slithering reptiles 🤣
My finest hour.
I called him a snake first. @YBarddCwsc pointed out the contract killer angle.
I was standing on the shoulder of giants.
PB is all about standing on the shoulders of giants 🙂
It has sparked the debate about whether he has in fact resigned though
If he hasn't, then there isn't a vacancy for him to run for. At the risk of pointing out the obvious.
Has the PM actually resigned? Genuine Q…
“It is now clearly the will of the parliamentary conservative party that there should be a new leader of that party and therefore a new Prime Minister and I have agreed…the process of choosing that new leader should begin now”
There is a contest, so he will have been deemed to have resigned.
In good precedent with British tradition - MPs deemed to have requested appointment to Steward of the Childtern Hundreds if they ask to resign (as Sinn Fein MPs have done), James II deeemed to have abdicated.
I have long assumed that in a Sunak v Truss contest, Truss wins the membership. I wonder if @HYUFD and @MarqueeMark could confirm.
Kemi already has five supporters, same as Tugendhat and Truss.
Truss would likely win the membership
Yes I agree with PB consensus developing today, Truss wins this. But at least that is the very worst result for Labour as Truss is continuity Boris policies without the liar Boris - so Truss is best Tory candidate for holding the red wall and winning back lost women voters in the blue wall.
I want to listen to both of them in the hustings if it goes to the membership but you do have a valid point and a third female conservative PM while labour obsess over Starmer and Streeting
Who exactly is obsessing about Starmer and Streeting again?
Seeing as there's quite a bit of chat going around the Tories choosing someone from a visible ethnic minority as their new leader, here are some quick thoughts from focus groups where I've asked Tory *voters* - not members - this question in focus groups recently...
So could a black or brown Tory win a general election? Emphatically yes.
If you read the wording of the endorsement then that makes no sense at all as a reason to back him for PM other than: "he was my boss, and he's also my mate."
I have long assumed that in a Sunak v Truss contest, Truss wins the membership. I wonder if @HYUFD and @MarqueeMark could confirm.
Kemi already has five supporters, same as Tugendhat and Truss.
Truss would likely win the membership
Yes I agree with PB consensus developing today, Truss wins this. But at least that is the very worst result for Labour as Truss is continuity Boris policies without the liar Boris - so Truss is best Tory candidate for holding the red wall and winning back lost women voters in the blue wall.
I want to listen to both of them in the hustings if it goes to the membership but you do have a valid point and a third female conservative PM while labour obsess over Starmer and Streeting
Who exactly is obsessing about Starmer and Streeting again?
Roy has so far had a hell of a day. Dropped catch, wild throw costing a run. We can only hope it improves when he gets a bat in his hands. He was well out of sorts in the last game.
Hang on - didn't John Major resign to fight the 1995 leadership election? Maybe I'm wrong.
On that same basis, is Theresa May ineligible to stand because she was a leader and she resigned - does that mean no ex-leader can ever be leader again?
'Subsequent leadership election'. So she's eligible. As for Major, long time ago, different rules no doubt.
As for whether Boris has resigned or merely indicated he would be resigning, if he wants to play that game I think the 1922 are on solid ground.
I understand your desire to see the Conservative Party remain in Government ad infinitum but this is just nonsense.
Yes, there will be a polling "bounce" while the new leader takes over and seeks to undo some of the damage inflicted by Johnson but the economic basics are exactly the same and we all know it's going to be a difficult winter if not year.
For all the platitudes about not wanting to raise taxes, Sunak had to raise taxes and I suspect his successor will because the demands on the public finances are severe (more money on defence, more Police, more for the NHS etc) and presumably you would not want to stand up and advocate cuts to public spending - perhaps we should cut welfare, slash pensions by 20% or slash local Government spending.
The honeymoon won't last and in six months I reckon the knives will be out for the successor - Wallace has understood this which is probably why he isn't standing. He'll wait until the defeat and put himself forward to be the LOTO.
I have long assumed that in a Sunak v Truss contest, Truss wins the membership. I wonder if @HYUFD and @MarqueeMark could confirm.
Kemi already has five supporters, same as Tugendhat and Truss.
Truss would likely win the membership
Yes I agree with PB consensus developing today, Truss wins this. But at least that is the very worst result for Labour as Truss is continuity Boris policies without the liar Boris - so Truss is best Tory candidate for holding the red wall and winning back lost women voters in the blue wall.
I want to listen to both of them in the hustings if it goes to the membership but you do have a valid point and a third female conservative PM while labour obsess over Starmer and Streeting
Who exactly is obsessing about Starmer and Streeting again?
Seeing as there's quite a bit of chat going around the Tories choosing someone from a visible ethnic minority as their new leader, here are some quick thoughts from focus groups where I've asked Tory *voters* - not members - this question in focus groups recently...
So could a black or brown Tory win a general election? Emphatically yes.
I really didn't think Maugham could go down further in my estimation but once again I underestimated him.
Maugham is actually disgusting.
What man goes out in a kimono with a baseball bat with the express intention of smashing a fox to death. Twice
I don't like foxes particularly (fox shit is disgusting in the garden), but I can't even contemplate beating them to death with a baseball bat.
To make it worse, he then gloated about his “weird Boxing Day” (of fox smashing) on Twitter
His wife should delete his Twitter account
Or at the very least put a lock on her lingerie draw.
Tories (many, or at least some):
Killing a fox with a baseball bat, quickly and economically = BAAAD Ditto, inefficiently at huge expense with a horde of dogs, horses and assistants, with sabs getting in the way = GLORIOUS TRADITION
I understand your desire to see the Conservative Party remain in Government ad infinitum but this is just nonsense.
Yes, there will be a polling "bounce" while the new leader takes over and seeks to undo some of the damage inflicted by Johnson but the economic basics are exactly the same and we all know it's going to be a difficult winter if not year.
For all the platitudes about not wanting to raise taxes, Sunak had to raise taxes and I suspect his successor will because the demands on the public finances are severe (more money on defence, more Police, more for the NHS etc) and presumably you would not want to stand up and advocate cuts to public spending - perhaps we should cut welfare, slash pensions by 20% or slash local Government spending.
The honeymoon won't last and in six months I reckon the knives will be out for the successor - Wallace has understood this which is probably why he isn't standing. He'll wait until the defeat and put himself forward to be the LOTO.
Agree with most of that. But maybe Wallace doesn't want it/think he's up to it?
There is a contest, so he will have been deemed to have resigned.
This is the key though.
BoZo pisses all over precedent.
The contest has started on the assumption that he will resign, but he hasn't actually done it, or said it.
And not having resigned, he is not prevented by the rules from standing in the contest.
Not a question of precedent, it still doesn't make any sense - no contest unless there is a vacancy, and there has been no vote of confidence so there must have been a resignation to create that vacancy.
A leader who has not resigned is eligibible in a leadership contest is not in the rules (in the 'aint no rule a dog cannot play basketball' sense) because it would be a rule which cannot be implemented as it is contradictory.
If he claims he has not resigned the 1922 cannot announce rules for a contest - they can instead change the rules to allow a VONC which he would definitely lose.
It has sparked the debate about whether he has in fact resigned though
If he hasn't, then there isn't a vacancy for him to run for. At the risk of pointing out the obvious.
Has the PM actually resigned? Genuine Q…
“It is now clearly the will of the parliamentary conservative party that there should be a new leader of that party and therefore a new Prime Minister and I have agreed…the process of choosing that new leader should begin now”
Im guessing this is something Old Lady Brady would have scrupulously checked Friday AM as he has no authority to start a race without something concrete id have thought?
I understand your desire to see the Conservative Party remain in Government ad infinitum but this is just nonsense.
Yes, there will be a polling "bounce" while the new leader takes over and seeks to undo some of the damage inflicted by Johnson but the economic basics are exactly the same and we all know it's going to be a difficult winter if not year.
For all the platitudes about not wanting to raise taxes, Sunak had to raise taxes and I suspect his successor will because the demands on the public finances are severe (more money on defence, more Police, more for the NHS etc) and presumably you would not want to stand up and advocate cuts to public spending - perhaps we should cut welfare, slash pensions by 20% or slash local Government spending.
The honeymoon won't last and in six months I reckon the knives will be out for the successor - Wallace has understood this which is probably why he isn't standing. He'll wait until the defeat and put himself forward to be the LOTO.
Of course you would see it that way but Johnson going has changed the narrative and opened the possibility to a 24 GE win as unlikely as it may seem
I would just say it will not be a Labour coronation
Seeing as there's quite a bit of chat going around the Tories choosing someone from a visible ethnic minority as their new leader, here are some quick thoughts from focus groups where I've asked Tory *voters* - not members - this question in focus groups recently...
So could a black or brown Tory win a general election? Emphatically yes.
I really didn't think Maugham could go down further in my estimation but once again I underestimated him.
Maugham is actually disgusting.
What man goes out in a kimono with a baseball bat with the express intention of smashing a fox to death. Twice
I don't like foxes particularly (fox shit is disgusting in the garden), but I can't even contemplate beating them to death with a baseball bat.
To make it worse, he then gloated about his “weird Boxing Day” (of fox smashing) on Twitter
His wife should delete his Twitter account
Or at the very least put a lock on her lingerie draw.
Tories (many, or at least some):
Killing a fox with a baseball bat, quickly and economically = BAAAD Ditto, inefficiently at huge expense with a horde of dogs, horses and assistants, with sabs getting in the way = GLORIOUS TRADITION
Our investigation into outside organisations providing sex education in schools uncovers material describing prostitution as “rewarding work” and promoting being locked in a cage, flogged, caned, beaten and slapped in the face. Story with @char_wace
But if he hasn’t resigned, there doesn’t need to be a contest.
I would not be surprised to discover that after Boris’s “moment of clarity” yesterday morning, he is having a “moment of regret” today. Plus, it’s clear Boris entertains these Attic notions of triumphantly overcoming the odds.
I understand your desire to see the Conservative Party remain in Government ad infinitum but this is just nonsense.
Yes, there will be a polling "bounce" while the new leader takes over and seeks to undo some of the damage inflicted by Johnson but the economic basics are exactly the same and we all know it's going to be a difficult winter if not year.
For all the platitudes about not wanting to raise taxes, Sunak had to raise taxes and I suspect his successor will because the demands on the public finances are severe (more money on defence, more Police, more for the NHS etc) and presumably you would not want to stand up and advocate cuts to public spending - perhaps we should cut welfare, slash pensions by 20% or slash local Government spending.
The honeymoon won't last and in six months I reckon the knives will be out for the successor - Wallace has understood this which is probably why he isn't standing. He'll wait until the defeat and put himself forward to be the LOTO.
Agree with most of that. But maybe Wallace doesn't want it/think he's up to it?
I understand your desire to see the Conservative Party remain in Government ad infinitum but this is just nonsense.
Yes, there will be a polling "bounce" while the new leader takes over and seeks to undo some of the damage inflicted by Johnson but the economic basics are exactly the same and we all know it's going to be a difficult winter if not year.
For all the platitudes about not wanting to raise taxes, Sunak had to raise taxes and I suspect his successor will because the demands on the public finances are severe (more money on defence, more Police, more for the NHS etc) and presumably you would not want to stand up and advocate cuts to public spending - perhaps we should cut welfare, slash pensions by 20% or slash local Government spending.
The honeymoon won't last and in six months I reckon the knives will be out for the successor - Wallace has understood this which is probably why he isn't standing. He'll wait until the defeat and put himself forward to be the LOTO.
Agree with most of that. But maybe Wallace doesn't want it/think he's up to it?
It has sparked the debate about whether he has in fact resigned though
If he hasn't, then there isn't a vacancy for him to run for. At the risk of pointing out the obvious.
Has the PM actually resigned? Genuine Q…
“It is now clearly the will of the parliamentary conservative party that there should be a new leader of that party and therefore a new Prime Minister and I have agreed…the process of choosing that new leader should begin now”
Im guessing this is something Old Lady Brady would have scrupulously checked Friday AM as he has no authority to start a race without something concrete id have thought?
But if he hasn’t resigned, there doesn’t need to be a contest.
I would not be surprised to discover that after Boris’s “moment of clarity” yesterday morning, he is having a “moment of regret” today. Plus, it’s clear Boris entertains these Attic notions of triumphantly overcoming the odds.
If he doesn't resign he'll be VoNC on Wednesday by almost 300 MPs and then there will be a contest on Thursday.
I understand your desire to see the Conservative Party remain in Government ad infinitum but this is just nonsense.
Yes, there will be a polling "bounce" while the new leader takes over and seeks to undo some of the damage inflicted by Johnson but the economic basics are exactly the same and we all know it's going to be a difficult winter if not year.
For all the platitudes about not wanting to raise taxes, Sunak had to raise taxes and I suspect his successor will because the demands on the public finances are severe (more money on defence, more Police, more for the NHS etc) and presumably you would not want to stand up and advocate cuts to public spending - perhaps we should cut welfare, slash pensions by 20% or slash local Government spending.
The honeymoon won't last and in six months I reckon the knives will be out for the successor - Wallace has understood this which is probably why he isn't standing. He'll wait until the defeat and put himself forward to be the LOTO.
Of course you would see it that way but Johnson going has changed the narrative and opened the possibility to a 24 GE win as unlikely as it may seem
I would just say it will not be a Labour coronation
I don't think it's changed as much as you think. Johnson still could have recovered and led the Conservatives to a 2024 GE win - unlikely, improbable even but no more unlikely than those who thought Thatcher would still have beaten Kinnock again in a 1991 GE.
You are hoping the Conservative Party will somehow be "cleansed" by Johnson's departure - rather like the scapegoat, put all the faults, problems and issues onto Johnson - blame him and hope somehow people will forget those who aided an abetted him. If all the Tories are "loyal" to the new leader and cabinet everything will be all right.
I merely point out all the other issues against which people protested in Wakefield, in Tiverton & Honiton, in Charlwood on Thursday and elsewhere haven't gone away. The cost of living issues haven't gone away - rising fuel bills haven't gone away yet all we hear is the stupidity of "tax cuts" as though somehow giving people a little bit back will help (taking it away from public services I suppose).
No - while the way Johnson comported himself in office deserved and merited his removal, the performance of the Government as a whole deservedly should be open to detailed scrutiny and account.
Seeing as there's quite a bit of chat going around the Tories choosing someone from a visible ethnic minority as their new leader, here are some quick thoughts from focus groups where I've asked Tory *voters* - not members - this question in focus groups recently...
So could a black or brown Tory win a general election? Emphatically yes.
I really didn't think Maugham could go down further in my estimation but once again I underestimated him.
Maugham is actually disgusting.
What man goes out in a kimono with a baseball bat with the express intention of smashing a fox to death. Twice
I don't like foxes particularly (fox shit is disgusting in the garden), but I can't even contemplate beating them to death with a baseball bat.
To make it worse, he then gloated about his “weird Boxing Day” (of fox smashing) on Twitter
His wife should delete his Twitter account
Or at the very least put a lock on her lingerie draw.
Tories (many, or at least some):
Killing a fox with a baseball bat, quickly and economically = BAAAD Ditto, inefficiently at huge expense with a horde of dogs, horses and assistants, with sabs getting in the way = GLORIOUS TRADITION
Fine with both. Also fine with people deciding for themselves what to spend their own money on.
It has sparked the debate about whether he has in fact resigned though
If he hasn't, then there isn't a vacancy for him to run for. At the risk of pointing out the obvious.
Has the PM actually resigned? Genuine Q…
“It is now clearly the will of the parliamentary conservative party that there should be a new leader of that party and therefore a new Prime Minister and I have agreed…the process of choosing that new leader should begin now”
Im guessing this is something Old Lady Brady would have scrupulously checked Friday AM as he has no authority to start a race without something concrete id have thought?
My assumption is that he agreed, in private, when Brady asked him if he was resigning, but that he couldn't bring himself to say the words in public.
Comments
If it were for LOTO with five years of opposition ahead of them, interesting up and commers like Tom and Penny having good chance rather than no chance.
A poster yesterday described Zahari the candidate for people who like slithering reptiles 🤣
Rather like the taxation system prior to the Revolution in France where those with real wealth hardly paid any tax at all.
In Sri Lanka, not surprisingly, the poor who cannot afford basic necessities such as food and fuel have decided to emulate their French forebears and break wind in the palaces of the mighty (well, the President's palace anyway). The President and Prime Minister have effectively run away - none of which of course gets the poor any food or fuel.
Dear God. When your spade starts melting in the molten heat of the earth's core, stop digging. #JohnsonMustGo
https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/1544711455047573514
@PetronellaWyatt
A source at Number 10 tells me that Boris Johnson intends to stand down as Prime Minister on Monday, in order to run for the Tory leadership.
2:03 PM · Jul 9, 2022"
https://twitter.com/PetronellaWyatt/status/1545755462292971520
Jabeur took the first set 6-3 but is 3-1 down to Ryabakina in the second. Jabeur had four break points in the second set but missed them all. That could be costly.
Is Boris eligible to run or not?
I do hope he tries to, although I am in danger of becoming popcorn.
Both issues are fringe issues. The problem is that they matter very much to political minorities.
People don't really see the woke stuff. It isn't very salient.
As for net zero, I can see with my own eyes that people aren't really interested. Massive queues at the airport, more traffic on the road than ever, people driving 0.3 miles to take their children to school, etc etc.
Even people that claim to be pro environmentalist, are often the worst offenders.
The cost of food and heating. below inflation pay etc, however is going to lead to massive political reckoning.
Boris's own brother quit his government, they clearly wont always agree as a family.
He got a peerage as a make up gift in fairness.
“A leader who resigns is not eligible to contest the subsequent leadership election”
Page 5 of this - on the current Tory leadership rules.
https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN01366/SN01366.pdf
Source: https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1545772737267892224/photo/1
That's pretty black and white then.
Pity.
Because that's looking favourite to me.
On that same basis, is Theresa May ineligible to stand because she was a leader and she resigned - does that mean no ex-leader can ever be leader again?
Because of the Wimbledon final.
If they spent less on their bloated coverage of Wimbledon, maybe they could afford more?
On ATP rankings, Jabeur is 2 and Rybakina 23 so the latter is doing very well.
I'm not really clear if anyone is in a tangle over woke - for Tories so far it seems to be a fringe issue. Whether that will continue, I don't know. I guess it depends which bit of woke you are discussing.
At the risk of pointing out the obvious.
Kemi already has five supporters, same as Tugendhat and Truss.
However they all are infinitely better than Johnson and I am looking forward to watching the race and as importantly the new cabinet which I will support 100%
Johnson leaving has changed the entire political landscape
Our investigation into outside organisations providing sex education in schools uncovers material describing prostitution as “rewarding work” and promoting being locked in a cage, flogged, caned, beaten and slapped in the face. Story with @char_wace
https://twitter.com/benellery/status/1545687662006247424
Has the PM actually resigned? Genuine Q…
“It is now clearly the will of the parliamentary conservative party that there should be a new leader of that party and therefore a new Prime Minister and I have agreed…the process of choosing that new leader should begin now”
https://twitter.com/SophyRidgeSky/status/1545776304099827712
https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1545771140643168261
I'd have to read the Tory Party Constitution more closely to see if there's any way a leadership contest could take place, absent the death, resignation, or loss of confidence in the incumbent.
I just reckon, right now, it will be Sunak v AN Other. And I think the value is against him.
I've pointed out he's never really had to campaign to win an election in his life.
Others noted. He got really tetchy about some quite legitimate questions about his wife's tax status. And he's never faced a setback.
He'll almost certainly face someone to his right.
His tax policy won't be popular with the membership.
Number 10 will be gunning for him. And will know some stuff. As the frontrunner, so will everyone else.
None of those are to do with his race.
FFS, just treat people like individuals.
I can't see her getting more than 50-60 MPs, at best.
IMHO, the party will want to wrap this up by the end of July.
The candidates he should be worried about: Mordaunt, Badenoch and Truss.
Rules say someone who’s resigned can’t stand. But - seriously - has @BorisJohnson ever said that he’s resigned?
https://twitter.com/jonsopel/status/1545778924709355521
https://twitter.com/petronellawyatt/status/1545755462292971520
In good precedent with British tradition - MPs deemed to have requested appointment to Steward of the Childtern Hundreds if they ask to resign (as Sinn Fein MPs have done), James II deeemed to have abdicated.
Johnson is history
BoZo pisses all over precedent.
The contest has started on the assumption that he will resign, but he hasn't actually done it, or said it.
And not having resigned, he is not prevented by the rules from standing in the contest.
This line of reasoning really makes no sense.
As for whether Boris has resigned or merely indicated he would be resigning, if he wants to play that game I think the 1922 are on solid ground.
Interestingly this link has a slightly different wording.
A Leader resigning from the Leadership of the Party is not eligible for re-nomination in the consequent Leadership election
https://public.conservatives.com/organisation-department/202101/Conservative Party Constitution as amended January 2021.pdf
'Resigning' not 'resigned'
Yes, there will be a polling "bounce" while the new leader takes over and seeks to undo some of the damage inflicted by Johnson but the economic basics are exactly the same and we all know it's going to be a difficult winter if not year.
For all the platitudes about not wanting to raise taxes, Sunak had to raise taxes and I suspect his successor will because the demands on the public finances are severe (more money on defence, more Police, more for the NHS etc) and presumably you would not want to stand up and advocate cuts to public spending - perhaps we should cut welfare, slash pensions by 20% or slash local Government spending.
The honeymoon won't last and in six months I reckon the knives will be out for the successor - Wallace has understood this which is probably why he isn't standing. He'll wait until the defeat and put himself forward to be the LOTO.
Killing a fox with a baseball bat, quickly and economically = BAAAD
Ditto, inefficiently at huge expense with a horde of dogs, horses and assistants, with sabs getting in the way = GLORIOUS TRADITION
But maybe Wallace doesn't want it/think he's up to it?
A leader who has not resigned is eligibible in a leadership contest is not in the rules (in the 'aint no rule a dog cannot play basketball' sense) because it would be a rule which cannot be implemented as it is contradictory.
If he claims he has not resigned the 1922 cannot announce rules for a contest - they can instead change the rules to allow a VONC which he would definitely lose.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/08/britain-have-new-prime-minister-september-5-secret-conservative/ (£££)
I would just say it will not be a Labour coronation
The rulebook doesn't say that.
BoZo explicitly didn't say it.
He said "there will be a contest". He didn't say "I am resigning so there will be a contest"
But if he hasn’t resigned, there doesn’t need to be a contest.
I would not be surprised to discover that after Boris’s “moment of clarity” yesterday morning, he is having a “moment of regret” today.
Plus, it’s clear Boris entertains these Attic notions of triumphantly overcoming the odds.
So it would be pointless.
NEW: No10 say Boris Johnson will not attempt to stand in any leadership contest.
“That’s untrue” said a No10 source https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1545771140643168261
You are hoping the Conservative Party will somehow be "cleansed" by Johnson's departure - rather like the scapegoat, put all the faults, problems and issues onto Johnson - blame him and hope somehow people will forget those who aided an abetted him. If all the Tories are "loyal" to the new leader and cabinet everything will be all right.
I merely point out all the other issues against which people protested in Wakefield, in Tiverton & Honiton, in Charlwood on Thursday and elsewhere haven't gone away. The cost of living issues haven't gone away - rising fuel bills haven't gone away yet all we hear is the stupidity of "tax cuts" as though somehow giving people a little bit back will help (taking it away from public services I suppose).
No - while the way Johnson comported himself in office deserved and merited his removal, the performance of the Government as a whole deservedly should be open to detailed scrutiny and account.