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In the VI polling, there’s been a marked shift to LAB – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,130
    edited July 2022
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Farooq said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    - “there’s been a marked shift to Labour “

    Except, guess where?

    YouGov, the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples:

    London
    Lab 51%
    Con 20%
    LD 19%
    Grn 6%
    Ref 1%

    Rest of South
    Con 35%
    Lab 32%
    LD 19%
    Grn 8%
    Ref 2%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 41%
    Con 31%
    LD 11%
    Grn 7%
    PC 4%
    Ref 4%

    North
    Lab 52%
    Con 27%
    LD 9%
    Grn 5%
    Ref 5%

    Scotland
    SNP 49%
    Lab 21%
    Con 15%
    LD 10%
    Ref 3%
    Grn 2%

    (YouGov/The Times; Sample Size: 1,687; Fieldwork: 6-7 July 2022)

    Until the next Tory leader is elected not really relevant.

    Wallace might even get an SCon bounce in Scotland being a former MSP, Scots Guard and the type of dull, serious type like May and Brown Scots like
    Uncharacteristically brutal!

    OT. Any Scots know a good hotel in Edinburgh or close by that might have three rooms mid August?
    Try to book it NOW. Mid-festival is a tricky time for in or near Edinburgh. You're already late in booking now so get on with it.
    I think I'm already too late. The two or three I've tried have gone. Is there anywhere about 15 miles away which might have somewhere?
    Linlithgow is on the train line going directly into Edinburgh and is almost picturesque. Falkirk is a bit further out on the same line and is..not picturesque. Some availability at the Court Residence which gets 'exceptional' rating on booking.com.

    https://tinyurl.com/4cwsck43

    Linlithglow looks perfect but they don't have anywhere for my dates but I'll check out other places round there. Thanks very much and to Farooq
    PS. If anything else strikes you or a specific name it would be much appreciated. Is Livingstone OK?
    Livingston is a new town so maybe not your cup of tea.
    On the opposite side of Edinburgh as mentioned by someone else Gullane is very pleasant, though absolutely golf fecking mad. Haddington might also be an option, but cars would be a necessity for both.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,449
    Farooq said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Farooq said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    - “there’s been a marked shift to Labour “

    Except, guess where?

    YouGov, the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples:

    London
    Lab 51%
    Con 20%
    LD 19%
    Grn 6%
    Ref 1%

    Rest of South
    Con 35%
    Lab 32%
    LD 19%
    Grn 8%
    Ref 2%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 41%
    Con 31%
    LD 11%
    Grn 7%
    PC 4%
    Ref 4%

    North
    Lab 52%
    Con 27%
    LD 9%
    Grn 5%
    Ref 5%

    Scotland
    SNP 49%
    Lab 21%
    Con 15%
    LD 10%
    Ref 3%
    Grn 2%

    (YouGov/The Times; Sample Size: 1,687; Fieldwork: 6-7 July 2022)

    Until the next Tory leader is elected not really relevant.

    Wallace might even get an SCon bounce in Scotland being a former MSP, Scots Guard and the type of dull, serious type like May and Brown Scots like
    Uncharacteristically brutal!

    OT. Any Scots know a good hotel in Edinburgh or close by that might have three rooms mid August?
    Try to book it NOW. Mid-festival is a tricky time for in or near Edinburgh. You're already late in booking now so get on with it.
    I think I'm already too late. The two or three I've tried have gone. Is there anywhere about 15 miles away which might have somewhere?
    Linlithgow is on the train line going directly into Edinburgh and is almost picturesque. Falkirk is a bit further out on the same line and is..not picturesque. Some availability at the Court Residence which gets 'exceptional' rating on booking.com.

    https://tinyurl.com/4cwsck43

    Linlithglow looks perfect but they don't have anywhere for my dates but I'll check out other places round there. Thanks very much and to Farooq
    PS. If anything else strikes you or a specific name it would be much appreciated. Is Livingstone OK?
    Livingston is fine. It's a bit Milton Keynes-y. Some nice walks in the area, e.g. Almond Valley.
    What about South Queensferry? Or (North) Queensferry? Both on the train to Edinburgh, both much more pleasant than Livingston.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,347
    Farooq said:

    biggles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Hearing from some voices on right of Conservative party that there are big worries about split votes between say Liz Truss, Priti Patel, Kemi Badenoch and Suella Braverman and that tactical votes from centre & more liberal wing cd block candidate from right reaching final two 1/

    Some saying that could end up with Rishi Sunak plus another in final two without their candidate. One saying that there are more MPs in centre and one nation wings. That said another source saying right consolidated quickly in 2019 when clear who candidate was 2/


    https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1545716759524741120

    That’s a feature not a bug.
    Why is Braverman running?

    Am I too cynical in thinking she has been put to it by one of the serious candidates in order to help split the Right vote as described above? Reward is Home Sec or some such?
    I don't see how it helps. When candidates are eliminated, their voters reallocate themselves to other remaining candidates. Splitting the vote doesn't matter because has the opportunity to coalesce later in the process.
    Every time a Tory leadership contest comes up, it becomes apparent they don’t understand their own rules. If they don’t understand those rules, it explains a lot about some of the crap they speak about wider issues in the country.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,545
    Farooq said:

    I don't get why incels become a problem at all.
    There have been periods of my life where I yearned to have sex with a (sometimes specific, sometimes not) woman and wasn't getting any at all. But what happened as a result? I didn't attack anyone or whine bitterly about it. And I think I'm pretty normal in that. What makes some other men different?

    I have my suspicion that the kind of men who cause trouble are the kind of men who would be causing trouble anyway. If they were getting laid, they'd find some other reason to attack and belittle people (mostly women, I guess). I strongly suspect lack of sex is just an excuse.

    Perhaps much in this, but IMHO there is a huge amount to be said for a society geared to young men having education, training, job, prospects, young lady, and family responsibilities.

    This would do more for peace in the middle east/Arab world than all the politics

    I only have to walk down the street in my industrial northern town to greet men who have been in prison now in jobs with partners and children and doing OK.

  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,259
    We are going to have weeks of more and more fantastical promises to cut taxes, scrap green policies, harder Brexit, lock up criminals for ever and so on aren't we?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,292
    dixiedean said:

    Phil said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Phil said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    The blockquoting has gone haywire which is my fault as I was trying to pick it up from the thread that has now become a Boris Johnson i.e. ceased to be.

    In particular it was this comment by Foxy: 'racism is either much more marginal or unconscious'.

    Quite simply untrue, I'm afraid.

    In fact, I'd say that since c. 2015 racism AND homophobia have been on the rise. Brexit has of course stirred that ugly cauldron.

    I'm afraid it's alive and kicking and I was responding to the suggestion of the contrary. No need to overreact. It was supposed to be a debate.

    Where is the evidence that homophobia is on the rise? As a society we are more open and tolerant than ever before.
    There's definitely been a recent increase in hatred towards lesbians who refuse to like "ladies" with cocks.
    And that's an exemplar of the kind of thing that is vile.

    Why do you do it? Why do you think it's even remotely acceptable in a civilised society to post something like that? You think it's funny. It isn't.
    But what @BlancheLivermore says is true. Indisputable. Not “vile”

    You can take issue with “cocks” but it’s just vulgar slang

    Indisputable? I dispute that there is a serious increase in hatred as such.

    The "cotton ceiling" seems to be a myth spread by idiots on both sides online. Where is any such hatred happening in this country, in the real world?

    It isn't hatred to oppose those who talk about "the cotton ceiling", but I struggle to find anyone in the real world who actually does. Could you name anyone in this country who actually hates people based on that?
    I see you carefully say “real world” so I presume you’re ignoring the net

    Yet you shouldn’t. Much of life now takes place online. It is life. See us on here!

    And online you can see real and vicious bullying of women who object to the extreme trans agenda. Women lose jobs and careers over this. It’s very “real”
    Absolutely I'm excluding the net, much of which is dominated by Russian trolls and not real people.

    So yes, real people please. Perhaps you could name some real lesbians in this country and name some real people who've shown hatred towards them because of their refusal to sleep with "ladies with cocks".
    So JKRowling doesn’t exist because it all happens online “which is full of Russian trolls”

    OK…
    JK Rowling is a lesbian being abused for not sleeping with ladies with cocks is she?

    That's funny, I thought she was married to a man.

    Which ladies with cocks have abused a married straight woman for being a lesbian that won't sleep with them?
    No idea. It wasn’t my assertion

    It IS my assertion that TRA bullying of women is a real thing. Rowling is an example. Multiple female Guardian journos. Julie Bindel. Kathleen Stock the academic. And many more
    Yes that is real, but that wasn't the subject.

    The claim was that there has been a "recent increase in hatred towards lesbians who refuse to like "ladies" with cocks" and when that was disputed you said it was indisputable.

    TRA bullying of feminists, which is very, very real and serious, is not a "recent increase in hatred towards lesbians who refuse to like "ladies" with cocks".

    It is feminists and female athletes that seem to get the real brunt of TRA extremists far more than lesbians, in the real world. Can we agree on that?
    Did you see this link to this article about the abuse experienced by lesbians who refuse to have sex with male-bodied self-identified transwomen?

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-57853385
    No, I did not, thank you.

    Anyone who abuses anyone for not having sex with anyone they don't want to have sex with, is no better than a rapist.
    There was a good essay on this topic in the LRB, exploring the space around consent, the need for an absolute right to choose & refuse whoever we want (or do not want) to sleep with & how that impacts the wider issues around prejudice & identity & the modern world of dating.

    No strong conclusions IIRC, but rather a “here’s how personal choices (which we have to defend, for obvious reasons) can feed into societal level prejudice that we might want to talk about, because that matters too”. This isn‘t (necessarily) about trans issues - the main focus of the essay was incel culture IIRC.

    I’ll see if I can dig up the link - it might be online.

    Edit: found it! https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v40/n06/amia-srinivasan/does-anyone-have-the-right-to-sex
    It’s a very real problem: incels - made worse by online dating apps

    If you’ve got half the males in your society not getting any, then that is a recipe for severe turmoil. See multiple Islamic societies through the ages

    Many mass shootings in America are perped by incels. And you can see why. If you are denied the chance to ever reproduce, and denied the chance to ever enjoy sex, then what is left? Some people can find solace in other things. Many can’t


    You're using exactly the same logic as "cotton ceiling" advocates use.

    Nobody has a right to demand sex from anyone else. Anyone who wants it, should find someone who wants it with them, and try to make themselves attractive to them.
    Where the FUCK do I say “anyone has a right to demand sex from someone else”

    Really? WHERE? Stop putting words in my mouth, you prat

    I’m saying this is a real social problem, and it has got majorly worse because of dating apps meaning women don’t give the bottom 50% of men (in terms of looks) even a chance of a conversation. How do we fix it? I dunno. But the stats on young people - especially men - going without sex, are truly alarming

    This does not mean an incel man has a right to sex from a woman who does not want to give it. Of course he doesn’t. It’s her body
    Is this right? I see quite a lot of ugly looking blokes who have managed to pull - including myself! Even plenty of dating apps focus more on personality than looks.
    it is right. There are lots of researchers and journalists looking at this

    https://unherd.com/2020/02/why-incels-are-the-losers-in-the-age-of-tinder/
    I reckon these blokes are getting no less sex than before, but they are living in a world where they can see other people having a lot more sex than them. Plus widespread availability of pornography has raised their expectations and also probably made their sexual preferences less compatible with what they are likely to get offered by a partner.
    Women aren't that picky. More or less any bloke can get a partner if they wash regularly, don't live with their parents, are kind and thoughtful and don't aim too far out of their league.
    Women aren’t that picky? So it’s all fine then

    The stats indicate I’m right and you’re wrong


    “Why Young Adults, Especially Men, Are Having Sex Less Frequently”

    https://www.healthline.com/health-news/young-adults-especially-men-having-sex-less-frequently

    This is a weird debate. Leon is for once right, if his usual hyperbolic self and the posters who are consistently right on most things are wrong.
    Yes, there’s lots of evidence out there that the current generation of young adults is having less sex & starting relationships later than previous generations. Maybe linked to the fact that they’re drinking a lot less than we did?

    Teenage pregnancy rates have dropped quite a bit as a result, which is a positive outcome.
    If my 18 yo and his new girlfriend are anything to go by, elaborate courting rituals are the new thing.
    It literally took them months. Hours of facetime. All day watching him play cricket. Chaperoned walks with her best friend.
    It was like Northanger Abbey.
    Lol. God bless them
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,259
    Sunak launch vid has had 7m viewings.
  • Options
    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,012
    Farooq said:

    I think Andrea might have been giving someone out, it's clearly missing middle..


    Two different moments. Your picture is when she's leaving and she shouted "he who laughs last laughs loudest" or similar while wagging her finger.
    The other moment is on her way in when she clearly threw up her middle finger at the crowd.

    Both moments were pretty undignified and faintly unhinged.
    It depends what the crowd were shouting. A middle finger is a reasonable response to abuse. I also use it often when running, to inconsiderate motorists.

    Should an aspiring politician use it? No, it does show a complete lack of self-awareness.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,344
    Farooq said:

    I don't get why incels become a problem at all.
    There have been periods of my life where I yearned to have sex with a (sometimes specific, sometimes not) woman and wasn't getting any at all. But what happened as a result? I didn't attack anyone or whine bitterly about it. And I think I'm pretty normal in that. What makes some other men different?

    I have my suspicion that the kind of men who cause trouble are the kind of men who would be causing trouble anyway. If they were getting laid, they'd find some other reason to attack and belittle people (mostly women, I guess). I strongly suspect lack of sex is just an excuse.

    +1. And there really is more to life than sex - in my lifetime we've gone from a world where people barely talked about it to a society where it's ridiculously seen as the one central purpose which we all must focus on, and the status of men in particular is rated by how much they're getting. It's great when it works well, but if it's not working out for someone for a while, there are other fantastic things too.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,292
    The Guardian, via Jonathan Freedland, wants to reverse Brexit, now Boris is gone

    “The dots are all there. Voters are already beginning to join them, even as Starmer insists that the subject is essentially closed. The politicians might not want to say it, but this week is a milestone in the fate of Brexit. The prime author of Britain’s exit from the EU has fallen: the standing of his calamitous project is heading the same way.”

    See that phrase and feel the chills in your blood

    “A milestone in the fate of Brexit”

    What fate? It’s done. Isn’t it?

    They want to reverse it and they will try to reverse it and Starmer won’t be able to resist the pressure to have a go

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/08/boris-johnson-lies-brexit-exit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,986
    Leon said:

    A big problem with the dating apps is many learn what you like, so its a bit like spotify you aren't even getting recommended opera if all you keep listening to is metal. Women are much more picky over swiping and so the claims of well just have a wash and tidy yourself up, they aren't even been shown...unless you then go into their paid funnel which hoses people for a hell of a lot of money...and even then, so you get promoted, in between a lot of really good looking people which the algorithm concentretes on showing because they get a lot of interaction.

    I imagine it is a very depressing experience....then after all that rejection, trying to go out into the real world and pull. I can see how people end up in a dark place.

    Of course. But the usual suspects dismiss it all and say men should “just have a wash”

    This really is PB at its worst. Mulishly stupid and narrow minded, and refusing to accept hard evidence because it doesn’t fit their preferred reality

    There is a lot of loneliness and neediness out there; the incel is a real thing, not just invention of the tabloid press. And of course women are not to blame. Tinder is to blame (and other phenomena like that)
    So. What is the solution?
    Incel-types seem to rail against any and all interference in the market, or personal liberty.
    Yet seem to tend towards some form of Socialism when it comes to where they ejaculate.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,259

    James Forsyth
    @JGForsyth
    ·
    50m
    As the clear ERG candidate, Suella Braverman pretty much guaranteed to get through the first round
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Cookie said:

    Farooq said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Farooq said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    - “there’s been a marked shift to Labour “

    Except, guess where?

    YouGov, the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples:

    London
    Lab 51%
    Con 20%
    LD 19%
    Grn 6%
    Ref 1%

    Rest of South
    Con 35%
    Lab 32%
    LD 19%
    Grn 8%
    Ref 2%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 41%
    Con 31%
    LD 11%
    Grn 7%
    PC 4%
    Ref 4%

    North
    Lab 52%
    Con 27%
    LD 9%
    Grn 5%
    Ref 5%

    Scotland
    SNP 49%
    Lab 21%
    Con 15%
    LD 10%
    Ref 3%
    Grn 2%

    (YouGov/The Times; Sample Size: 1,687; Fieldwork: 6-7 July 2022)

    Until the next Tory leader is elected not really relevant.

    Wallace might even get an SCon bounce in Scotland being a former MSP, Scots Guard and the type of dull, serious type like May and Brown Scots like
    Uncharacteristically brutal!

    OT. Any Scots know a good hotel in Edinburgh or close by that might have three rooms mid August?
    Try to book it NOW. Mid-festival is a tricky time for in or near Edinburgh. You're already late in booking now so get on with it.
    I think I'm already too late. The two or three I've tried have gone. Is there anywhere about 15 miles away which might have somewhere?
    Linlithgow is on the train line going directly into Edinburgh and is almost picturesque. Falkirk is a bit further out on the same line and is..not picturesque. Some availability at the Court Residence which gets 'exceptional' rating on booking.com.

    https://tinyurl.com/4cwsck43

    Linlithglow looks perfect but they don't have anywhere for my dates but I'll check out other places round there. Thanks very much and to Farooq
    PS. If anything else strikes you or a specific name it would be much appreciated. Is Livingstone OK?
    Livingston is fine. It's a bit Milton Keynes-y. Some nice walks in the area, e.g. Almond Valley.
    What about South Queensferry? Or (North) Queensferry? Both on the train to Edinburgh, both much more pleasant than Livingston.
    Yeah, good suggestions, although they are small places and so accommodation might be harder to find.
    I did mention earlier to not rely on the trains, so check bus services if you need to travel in the evening.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,347
    Leon said:

    The Guardian, via Jonathan Freedland, wants to reverse Brexit, now Boris is gone

    “The dots are all there. Voters are already beginning to join them, even as Starmer insists that the subject is essentially closed. The politicians might not want to say it, but this week is a milestone in the fate of Brexit. The prime author of Britain’s exit from the EU has fallen: the standing of his calamitous project is heading the same way.”

    See that phrase and feel the chills in your blood

    “A milestone in the fate of Brexit”

    What fate? It’s done. Isn’t it?

    They want to reverse it and they will try to reverse it and Starmer won’t be able to resist the pressure to have a go

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/08/boris-johnson-lies-brexit-exit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    I think people underestimate the likely views of the MPs Labour will gain from current Tory seats when it takes power again. The PLP in power will be less remainery than it is now.

  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,311

    Cookie said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    The blockquoting has gone haywire which is my fault as I was trying to pick it up from the thread that has now become a Boris Johnson i.e. ceased to be.

    In particular it was this comment by Foxy: 'racism is either much more marginal or unconscious'.

    Quite simply untrue, I'm afraid.

    In fact, I'd say that since c. 2015 racism AND homophobia have been on the rise. Brexit has of course stirred that ugly cauldron.

    I'm afraid it's alive and kicking and I was responding to the suggestion of the contrary. No need to overreact. It was supposed to be a debate.

    Where is the evidence that either racism or homophobia is on the rise?

    The overwhelming, independent, evidence is the polar opposite.
    Drivel. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/20/racism-on-the-rise-since-brexit-vote-nationwide-study-reveals

    Independent studies show racism and hate crime is on the increase. So the opposite of your contention.

    Anyone, ANYONE, who goes to a football game nowadays knows this is the case. It's a serious problem at the moment.

    Cricket is I'm afraid facing a huge problem with it. As everyone knows.
    Utter bollocks. Racism is a problem, but nothing like the problem it used to be. Any problem is too much though, so any residual racism should be eliminated. Cricket is primarily dealing with allegations of problems that existed and were badly handled pre-2015 too.

    What's changed is that acceptance of racism has fallen away, the willingness of people to defend it has vanished, and the willingness of people to call it out has increased. So we talk about it more, even though its less common and normalised. That's a good thing. 👍

    Check independent polls on topics like immigration etc too, its completely collapsed post-2015:
    https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/uk-public-opinion-toward-immigration-overall-attitudes-and-level-of-concern/
    I would argue that cricket has been the most effectively anti-racist 'thing' in society over the last 30 years, in that it has, more than pretty much any other 'thing' effectively brought races together and given them something in common, without hectoring them.

    @Heathener, are you involved in cricket, at all? I am, a bit. I watch the game live. My daughter is a member at a local club. And I would describe your assertions about cricket as nonsense.
    Personally I am pretty convinced that Heathener is another Leon creation. My reasons for thinking it are as follows. Use of a VPN, but is clearly authentically British. Beyond parody in her support for woke. Now turns out to be a writer, and a lesbian, characteristics shared with Leon's previous female personas. Writes in a very similar style. Short, sharp paragraphs, single word retorts.

    I am not particularly upset about it, more bemused - indeed the sheer logistical prowess of managing two way conversations is quite astonishing.
    Must say that I have shared that suspicion. She even resorts to the odd word in CAPITALS from time to time. Still, its entertaining and harmless so whatever.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,347
    Oh God. Hang on. Could Cummings come back? 🤢
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,259
    Sebastian Payne
    @SebastianEPayne
    ·
    2h
    NEW: Liz Truss' leadership bid will launch in the next day or so, allies say, drawing a clear line with Rishi Sunak. "She’s definitely not the continuity candidate on the economy"

    Truss will pledge tax cuts + supply side reform + EU regulatory divergence
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,934

    We are going to have weeks of more and more fantastical promises to cut taxes, scrap green policies, harder Brexit, lock up criminals for ever and so on aren't we?

    Probably not because he has no time to get anything through parliament. Hes got 2 weeks of Commons time left as PM.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,449

    Farooq said:

    I don't get why incels become a problem at all.
    There have been periods of my life where I yearned to have sex with a (sometimes specific, sometimes not) woman and wasn't getting any at all. But what happened as a result? I didn't attack anyone or whine bitterly about it. And I think I'm pretty normal in that. What makes some other men different?

    I have my suspicion that the kind of men who cause trouble are the kind of men who would be causing trouble anyway. If they were getting laid, they'd find some other reason to attack and belittle people (mostly women, I guess). I strongly suspect lack of sex is just an excuse.

    +1. And there really is more to life than sex - in my lifetime we've gone from a world where people barely talked about it to a society where it's ridiculously seen as the one central purpose which we all must focus on, and the status of men in particular is rated by how much they're getting. It's great when it works well, but if it's not working out for someone for a while, there are other fantastic things too.
    Yes and no to the above.
    I think the modern world's fixation on sex is a bit daft. As Nick and Farooq say, there is more to life.
    But the danger is where men see no prospect of ever having a partner. Of ever having love, stability, a stake in the future.
    This sounds ridiculously old fashioned, but I think is the more important point.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,449
    Farooq said:

    Cookie said:

    Farooq said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Farooq said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    - “there’s been a marked shift to Labour “

    Except, guess where?

    YouGov, the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples:

    London
    Lab 51%
    Con 20%
    LD 19%
    Grn 6%
    Ref 1%

    Rest of South
    Con 35%
    Lab 32%
    LD 19%
    Grn 8%
    Ref 2%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 41%
    Con 31%
    LD 11%
    Grn 7%
    PC 4%
    Ref 4%

    North
    Lab 52%
    Con 27%
    LD 9%
    Grn 5%
    Ref 5%

    Scotland
    SNP 49%
    Lab 21%
    Con 15%
    LD 10%
    Ref 3%
    Grn 2%

    (YouGov/The Times; Sample Size: 1,687; Fieldwork: 6-7 July 2022)

    Until the next Tory leader is elected not really relevant.

    Wallace might even get an SCon bounce in Scotland being a former MSP, Scots Guard and the type of dull, serious type like May and Brown Scots like
    Uncharacteristically brutal!

    OT. Any Scots know a good hotel in Edinburgh or close by that might have three rooms mid August?
    Try to book it NOW. Mid-festival is a tricky time for in or near Edinburgh. You're already late in booking now so get on with it.
    I think I'm already too late. The two or three I've tried have gone. Is there anywhere about 15 miles away which might have somewhere?
    Linlithgow is on the train line going directly into Edinburgh and is almost picturesque. Falkirk is a bit further out on the same line and is..not picturesque. Some availability at the Court Residence which gets 'exceptional' rating on booking.com.

    https://tinyurl.com/4cwsck43

    Linlithglow looks perfect but they don't have anywhere for my dates but I'll check out other places round there. Thanks very much and to Farooq
    PS. If anything else strikes you or a specific name it would be much appreciated. Is Livingstone OK?
    Livingston is fine. It's a bit Milton Keynes-y. Some nice walks in the area, e.g. Almond Valley.
    What about South Queensferry? Or (North) Queensferry? Both on the train to Edinburgh, both much more pleasant than Livingston.
    Yeah, good suggestions, although they are small places and so accommodation might be harder to find.
    I did mention earlier to not rely on the trains, so check bus services if you need to travel in the evening.
    Ooh, also North Berwick.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Brexit was an incel project, and it succeeded wildly. Britain is now fucked.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,259

    We are going to have weeks of more and more fantastical promises to cut taxes, scrap green policies, harder Brexit, lock up criminals for ever and so on aren't we?

    Probably not because he has no time to get anything through parliament. Hes got 2 weeks of Commons time left as PM.
    I meant the candidates to take over.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,986
    Like Starmer did with Labour after Corbyn, whoever wins the Tory leadership contest will have to detoxify the party after Johnson. Images like this👇🏻will be all over opponents’ election leaflets https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1545726770556567552/photo/1
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,770
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    A big problem with the dating apps is many learn what you like, so its a bit like spotify you aren't even getting recommended opera if all you keep listening to is metal. Women are much more picky over swiping and so the claims of well just have a wash and tidy yourself up, they aren't even been shown...unless you then go into their paid funnel which hoses people for a hell of a lot of money...and even then, so you get promoted, in between a lot of really good looking people which the algorithm concentretes on showing because they get a lot of interaction.

    I imagine it is a very depressing experience....then after all that rejection, trying to go out into the real world and pull. I can see how people end up in a dark place.

    Of course. But the usual suspects dismiss it all and say men should “just have a wash”

    This really is PB at its worst. Mulishly stupid and narrow minded, and refusing to accept hard evidence because it doesn’t fit their preferred reality

    There is a lot of loneliness and neediness out there; the incel is a real thing, not just invention of the tabloid press. And of course women are not to blame. Tinder is to blame (and other phenomena like that)
    So. What is the solution?
    Incel-types seem to rail against any and all interference in the market, or personal liberty.
    Yet seem to tend towards some form of Socialism when it comes to where they ejaculate.
    Incel twitterati are probably 1% of young males. The issue is impacting about a quarter of young males.

    Some compassion and understanding that is not about a lack of effort seems a healthy starting point.

    Policy wise I go on about it relentlessly, but make houses cheaper and tax the young no more than the old.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,292
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    A big problem with the dating apps is many learn what you like, so its a bit like spotify you aren't even getting recommended opera if all you keep listening to is metal. Women are much more picky over swiping and so the claims of well just have a wash and tidy yourself up, they aren't even been shown...unless you then go into their paid funnel which hoses people for a hell of a lot of money...and even then, so you get promoted, in between a lot of really good looking people which the algorithm concentretes on showing because they get a lot of interaction.

    I imagine it is a very depressing experience....then after all that rejection, trying to go out into the real world and pull. I can see how people end up in a dark place.

    Of course. But the usual suspects dismiss it all and say men should “just have a wash”

    This really is PB at its worst. Mulishly stupid and narrow minded, and refusing to accept hard evidence because it doesn’t fit their preferred reality

    There is a lot of loneliness and neediness out there; the incel is a real thing, not just invention of the tabloid press. And of course women are not to blame. Tinder is to blame (and other phenomena like that)
    So. What is the solution?
    Incel-types seem to rail against any and all interference in the market, or personal liberty.
    Yet seem to tend towards some form of Socialism when it comes to where they ejaculate.
    It’s a really hard one

    A solution I’ve seen is that sexual starvation should be treated like hunger, and the state should solace the incels as it feeds the hungry

    Ie Prostitutes should be paid by the state to have sex with these men. Or the men could have vouchers to use with sex workers. It sounds mad, but then it is the same principle as welfare benefits

    Or we wait for technology to save us via sex bots and VR, but that could be decades

    What we shouldn’t do is airily dismiss it as a non-problem and “men just need to have a wash”. A society with millions of unhappy, isolated, sex-starved young men is a society on the brink of violence. See America’s mass shootings
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,934
    edited July 2022
    biggles said:

    Oh God. Hang on. Could Cummings come back? 🤢

    I think Cummings has shot his bolt with the bulk of the Tory Party. Any comeback would be way down the line. Thats not to say he wouldnt be involved by proxy somehow?
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,579
    edited July 2022

    We are going to have weeks of more and more fantastical promises to cut taxes, scrap green policies, harder Brexit, lock up criminals for ever and so on aren't we?

    Quite interesting listening to Week at Westminster on BBC R4. Suggestions that this may be a time for the first real debate about 'what is contemporary conservatism' since the one brought on by Cameron.

    One suggestion which I agree with is that the Conservatives are in a far stronger position than their opponents on diversity questions.

    As I make it (based on the Guido spreadsheet):

    12 candidates
    4 women
    4 from an ethnic minority background

    (Someone else will have to count the LBGT; I am not up to date on that. By the laws of stats there should be 1 or 2.)

    And as far as I can see none of those have made it to their position through institutionalised 'race'-based or sex-based discrimination. That's a very positive story to tell vs Labour being in part a coalition of identity-politics caucuses.

    Open to argument on all of that, though.
  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Leon said:

    The Guardian, via Jonathan Freedland, wants to reverse Brexit, now Boris is gone

    “The dots are all there. Voters are already beginning to join them, even as Starmer insists that the subject is essentially closed. The politicians might not want to say it, but this week is a milestone in the fate of Brexit. The prime author of Britain’s exit from the EU has fallen: the standing of his calamitous project is heading the same way.”

    See that phrase and feel the chills in your blood

    “A milestone in the fate of Brexit”

    What fate? It’s done. Isn’t it?

    They want to reverse it and they will try to reverse it and Starmer won’t be able to resist the pressure to have a go

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/08/boris-johnson-lies-brexit-exit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Latest YouGov Brexit tracker

    Brexit Right 36%
    Brexit Wrong 50%
    DK 14%
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798

    Sebastian Payne
    @SebastianEPayne
    ·
    2h
    NEW: Liz Truss' leadership bid will launch in the next day or so, allies say, drawing a clear line with Rishi Sunak. "She’s definitely not the continuity candidate on the economy"

    Truss will pledge tax cuts + supply side reform + EU regulatory divergence

    Shell beat him with members then.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,311

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Farooq said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    - “there’s been a marked shift to Labour “

    Except, guess where?

    YouGov, the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples:

    London
    Lab 51%
    Con 20%
    LD 19%
    Grn 6%
    Ref 1%

    Rest of South
    Con 35%
    Lab 32%
    LD 19%
    Grn 8%
    Ref 2%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 41%
    Con 31%
    LD 11%
    Grn 7%
    PC 4%
    Ref 4%

    North
    Lab 52%
    Con 27%
    LD 9%
    Grn 5%
    Ref 5%

    Scotland
    SNP 49%
    Lab 21%
    Con 15%
    LD 10%
    Ref 3%
    Grn 2%

    (YouGov/The Times; Sample Size: 1,687; Fieldwork: 6-7 July 2022)

    Until the next Tory leader is elected not really relevant.

    Wallace might even get an SCon bounce in Scotland being a former MSP, Scots Guard and the type of dull, serious type like May and Brown Scots like
    Uncharacteristically brutal!

    OT. Any Scots know a good hotel in Edinburgh or close by that might have three rooms mid August?
    Try to book it NOW. Mid-festival is a tricky time for in or near Edinburgh. You're already late in booking now so get on with it.
    I think I'm already too late. The two or three I've tried have gone. Is there anywhere about 15 miles away which might have somewhere?
    Linlithgow is on the train line going directly into Edinburgh and is almost picturesque. Falkirk is a bit further out on the same line and is..not picturesque. Some availability at the Court Residence which gets 'exceptional' rating on booking.com.

    https://tinyurl.com/4cwsck43

    Linlithglow looks perfect but they don't have anywhere for my dates but I'll check out other places round there. Thanks very much and to Farooq
    PS. If anything else strikes you or a specific name it would be much appreciated. Is Livingstone OK?
    Livingston is a new town so maybe not your cup of tea.
    On the opposite side of Edinburgh as mentioned by someone else Gullane is very pleasant, though absolutely golf fecking mad. Haddington might also be an option, but cars would be a necessity for both.
    Livingston seems to me to have struggled in recent times. Its shopping centre is not what it was. There are far too many roundabouts and random bits of dual carriageway and the M8 really, really needs to be expanded to 3 lanes in its proximity to cope with the traffic generated. There are much nicer towns in the commuter belt for Edinburgh. Those to the south with the new railway seem to be doing particularly well.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,347
    Scott_xP said:

    Like Starmer did with Labour after Corbyn, whoever wins the Tory leadership contest will have to detoxify the party after Johnson. Images like this👇🏻will be all over opponents’ election leaflets https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1545726770556567552/photo/1

    This is the U.K. That picture is a vote winner.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,934

    We are going to have weeks of more and more fantastical promises to cut taxes, scrap green policies, harder Brexit, lock up criminals for ever and so on aren't we?

    Probably not because he has no time to get anything through parliament. Hes got 2 weeks of Commons time left as PM.
    I meant the candidates to take over.
    Oooooh i see! Yes, definitely
    Policy wonks wankfest
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,292

    Leon said:

    The Guardian, via Jonathan Freedland, wants to reverse Brexit, now Boris is gone

    “The dots are all there. Voters are already beginning to join them, even as Starmer insists that the subject is essentially closed. The politicians might not want to say it, but this week is a milestone in the fate of Brexit. The prime author of Britain’s exit from the EU has fallen: the standing of his calamitous project is heading the same way.”

    See that phrase and feel the chills in your blood

    “A milestone in the fate of Brexit”

    What fate? It’s done. Isn’t it?

    They want to reverse it and they will try to reverse it and Starmer won’t be able to resist the pressure to have a go

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/08/boris-johnson-lies-brexit-exit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Latest YouGov Brexit tracker

    Brexit Right 36%
    Brexit Wrong 50%
    DK 14%
    Indeed. Which is why I think this subject will come back with force if Starmer is PM. He’s tried to shut it down but it won’t last
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,347

    Leon said:

    The Guardian, via Jonathan Freedland, wants to reverse Brexit, now Boris is gone

    “The dots are all there. Voters are already beginning to join them, even as Starmer insists that the subject is essentially closed. The politicians might not want to say it, but this week is a milestone in the fate of Brexit. The prime author of Britain’s exit from the EU has fallen: the standing of his calamitous project is heading the same way.”

    See that phrase and feel the chills in your blood

    “A milestone in the fate of Brexit”

    What fate? It’s done. Isn’t it?

    They want to reverse it and they will try to reverse it and Starmer won’t be able to resist the pressure to have a go

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/08/boris-johnson-lies-brexit-exit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Latest YouGov Brexit tracker

    Brexit Right 36%
    Brexit Wrong 50%
    DK 14%
    Wrong question. Is anyone polling on whether people want to rejoin, via a referendum”? We’re out now - the question is about joining and on what terms.

  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,579

    Scott_xP said:

    There's still bitterness towards Boris Johnson

    One cabinet minister described him as a 'cosmic c***'

    Gove aide ripped into Guto Harri, No 10 head of comms, branding 'snake' briefings 'f****** appalling'

    The bad blood is everywhere

    * Sunak compared to Theresa May

    * Zahawi ridiculed for past 48 hours

    * Truss described as 'mad' & female Boris Johnson

    * Javid critics highlight 'embarrassing' NHS briefing at cabinet recently

    * Ben Wallace questioned over Brexiteer credentials

    Boris Johnson allies think he's not done politically

    They suggest he will move to the US, earn £10m a year on speaking circuit & from books, and make a comeback

    They compare him to Churchill, his hero, who became PM for second time in 1951. 'Don't write him off'


    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1545718435006513152

    These people need to be helped medically.

    I think he will earn £100m+ in his best year in the States. What medicine do you suggest!
    The antidote to benzodiazepine.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    Scott_xP said:

    There's still bitterness towards Boris Johnson

    One cabinet minister described him as a 'cosmic c***'

    Gove aide ripped into Guto Harri, No 10 head of comms, branding 'snake' briefings 'f****** appalling'

    The bad blood is everywhere

    * Sunak compared to Theresa May

    * Zahawi ridiculed for past 48 hours

    * Truss described as 'mad' & female Boris Johnson

    * Javid critics highlight 'embarrassing' NHS briefing at cabinet recently

    * Ben Wallace questioned over Brexiteer credentials

    Boris Johnson allies think he's not done politically

    They suggest he will move to the US, earn £10m a year on speaking circuit & from books, and make a comeback

    They compare him to Churchill, his hero, who became PM for second time in 1951. 'Don't write him off'


    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1545718435006513152


    Churchill was LOTO between 45-51 though?

    More likely, if stays on the backbences these will be Boris's 1930's "wilderness years" - Perhaps he'll make a comeback if WW3 breaks out?
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,579
    edited July 2022
    dixiedean said:

    Phil said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Phil said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    The blockquoting has gone haywire which is my fault as I was trying to pick it up from the thread that has now become a Boris Johnson i.e. ceased to be.

    In particular it was this comment by Foxy: 'racism is either much more marginal or unconscious'.

    Quite simply untrue, I'm afraid.

    In fact, I'd say that since c. 2015 racism AND homophobia have been on the rise. Brexit has of course stirred that ugly cauldron.

    I'm afraid it's alive and kicking and I was responding to the suggestion of the contrary. No need to overreact. It was supposed to be a debate.

    Where is the evidence that homophobia is on the rise? As a society we are more open and tolerant than ever before.
    There's definitely been a recent increase in hatred towards lesbians who refuse to like "ladies" with cocks.
    And that's an exemplar of the kind of thing that is vile.

    Why do you do it? Why do you think it's even remotely acceptable in a civilised society to post something like that? You think it's funny. It isn't.
    But what @BlancheLivermore says is true. Indisputable. Not “vile”

    You can take issue with “cocks” but it’s just vulgar slang

    Indisputable? I dispute that there is a serious increase in hatred as such.

    The "cotton ceiling" seems to be a myth spread by idiots on both sides online. Where is any such hatred happening in this country, in the real world?

    It isn't hatred to oppose those who talk about "the cotton ceiling", but I struggle to find anyone in the real world who actually does. Could you name anyone in this country who actually hates people based on that?
    I see you carefully say “real world” so I presume you’re ignoring the net

    Yet you shouldn’t. Much of life now takes place online. It is life. See us on here!

    And online you can see real and vicious bullying of women who object to the extreme trans agenda. Women lose jobs and careers over this. It’s very “real”
    Absolutely I'm excluding the net, much of which is dominated by Russian trolls and not real people.

    So yes, real people please. Perhaps you could name some real lesbians in this country and name some real people who've shown hatred towards them because of their refusal to sleep with "ladies with cocks".
    So JKRowling doesn’t exist because it all happens online “which is full of Russian trolls”

    OK…
    JK Rowling is a lesbian being abused for not sleeping with ladies with cocks is she?

    That's funny, I thought she was married to a man.

    Which ladies with cocks have abused a married straight woman for being a lesbian that won't sleep with them?
    No idea. It wasn’t my assertion

    It IS my assertion that TRA bullying of women is a real thing. Rowling is an example. Multiple female Guardian journos. Julie Bindel. Kathleen Stock the academic. And many more
    Yes that is real, but that wasn't the subject.

    The claim was that there has been a "recent increase in hatred towards lesbians who refuse to like "ladies" with cocks" and when that was disputed you said it was indisputable.

    TRA bullying of feminists, which is very, very real and serious, is not a "recent increase in hatred towards lesbians who refuse to like "ladies" with cocks".

    It is feminists and female athletes that seem to get the real brunt of TRA extremists far more than lesbians, in the real world. Can we agree on that?
    Did you see this link to this article about the abuse experienced by lesbians who refuse to have sex with male-bodied self-identified transwomen?

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-57853385
    No, I did not, thank you.

    Anyone who abuses anyone for not having sex with anyone they don't want to have sex with, is no better than a rapist.
    There was a good essay on this topic in the LRB, exploring the space around consent, the need for an absolute right to choose & refuse whoever we want (or do not want) to sleep with & how that impacts the wider issues around prejudice & identity & the modern world of dating.

    No strong conclusions IIRC, but rather a “here’s how personal choices (which we have to defend, for obvious reasons) can feed into societal level prejudice that we might want to talk about, because that matters too”. This isn‘t (necessarily) about trans issues - the main focus of the essay was incel culture IIRC.

    I’ll see if I can dig up the link - it might be online.

    Edit: found it! https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v40/n06/amia-srinivasan/does-anyone-have-the-right-to-sex
    It’s a very real problem: incels - made worse by online dating apps

    If you’ve got half the males in your society not getting any, then that is a recipe for severe turmoil. See multiple Islamic societies through the ages

    Many mass shootings in America are perped by incels. And you can see why. If you are denied the chance to ever reproduce, and denied the chance to ever enjoy sex, then what is left? Some people can find solace in other things. Many can’t


    You're using exactly the same logic as "cotton ceiling" advocates use.

    Nobody has a right to demand sex from anyone else. Anyone who wants it, should find someone who wants it with them, and try to make themselves attractive to them.
    Where the FUCK do I say “anyone has a right to demand sex from someone else”

    Really? WHERE? Stop putting words in my mouth, you prat

    I’m saying this is a real social problem, and it has got majorly worse because of dating apps meaning women don’t give the bottom 50% of men (in terms of looks) even a chance of a conversation. How do we fix it? I dunno. But the stats on young people - especially men - going without sex, are truly alarming

    This does not mean an incel man has a right to sex from a woman who does not want to give it. Of course he doesn’t. It’s her body
    Is this right? I see quite a lot of ugly looking blokes who have managed to pull - including myself! Even plenty of dating apps focus more on personality than looks.
    it is right. There are lots of researchers and journalists looking at this

    https://unherd.com/2020/02/why-incels-are-the-losers-in-the-age-of-tinder/
    I reckon these blokes are getting no less sex than before, but they are living in a world where they can see other people having a lot more sex than them. Plus widespread availability of pornography has raised their expectations and also probably made their sexual preferences less compatible with what they are likely to get offered by a partner.
    Women aren't that picky. More or less any bloke can get a partner if they wash regularly, don't live with their parents, are kind and thoughtful and don't aim too far out of their league.
    Women aren’t that picky? So it’s all fine then

    The stats indicate I’m right and you’re wrong


    “Why Young Adults, Especially Men, Are Having Sex Less Frequently”

    https://www.healthline.com/health-news/young-adults-especially-men-having-sex-less-frequently

    This is a weird debate. Leon is for once right, if his usual hyperbolic self and the posters who are consistently right on most things are wrong.
    Yes, there’s lots of evidence out there that the current generation of young adults is having less sex & starting relationships later than previous generations. Maybe linked to the fact that they’re drinking a lot less than we did?

    Teenage pregnancy rates have dropped quite a bit as a result, which is a positive outcome.
    If my 18 yo and his new girlfriend are anything to go by, elaborate courting rituals are the new thing.
    It literally took them months. Hours of facetime. All day watching him play cricket. Chaperoned walks with her best friend.
    It was like Northanger Abbey.
    I find the 'chaperoned' part strange - unless it is to do with a third party opinion ie is this one a bastard, do you think? Is the best friend the chaperone, or is the potential new GF along to chaperone the BFF :smile: ?

    Mistrust is not a basis for a relationship.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,986
    MattW said:

    We are going to have weeks of more and more fantastical promises to cut taxes, scrap green policies, harder Brexit, lock up criminals for ever and so on aren't we?

    Quite interesting listening to Week at Westminster on BBC R4. Suggestions that this may be a time for the first real debate about 'what is contemporary conservatism' since the one brought on by Cameron.

    One suggestion which I agree with is that the Conservatives are in a far stronger position than their opponents on diversity questions.

    As I make it (based on the Guido spreadsheet):

    12 candidates
    4 women
    4 from an ethnic minority background

    (Someone else will have to count the LBGT; I am not up to date on that. By the laws of stats there should be 1 or 2.)

    And as far as I can see none of those have made it to their position through institutionalised 'race'-based or sex-based discrimination. That's a very positive story to tell vs Labour being in part a coalition of identity-politics caucuses.

    Open to argument on all of that, though.
    It's certainly a debate that's needed. All my adult life I could sum up what Tory governments were for in one word.
    Thatcherism. Austerity. Brexit.
    The only one I can come up with now is Power.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    The Guardian, via Jonathan Freedland, wants to reverse Brexit, now Boris is gone

    “The dots are all there. Voters are already beginning to join them, even as Starmer insists that the subject is essentially closed. The politicians might not want to say it, but this week is a milestone in the fate of Brexit. The prime author of Britain’s exit from the EU has fallen: the standing of his calamitous project is heading the same way.”

    See that phrase and feel the chills in your blood

    “A milestone in the fate of Brexit”

    What fate? It’s done. Isn’t it?

    They want to reverse it and they will try to reverse it and Starmer won’t be able to resist the pressure to have a go

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/08/boris-johnson-lies-brexit-exit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    There comes a time when we have done it and satisfied the mandate to do it and we can democratically decide to undo it again. When is that time if we're not already there?
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,347
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    There's still bitterness towards Boris Johnson

    One cabinet minister described him as a 'cosmic c***'

    Gove aide ripped into Guto Harri, No 10 head of comms, branding 'snake' briefings 'f****** appalling'

    The bad blood is everywhere

    * Sunak compared to Theresa May

    * Zahawi ridiculed for past 48 hours

    * Truss described as 'mad' & female Boris Johnson

    * Javid critics highlight 'embarrassing' NHS briefing at cabinet recently

    * Ben Wallace questioned over Brexiteer credentials

    Boris Johnson allies think he's not done politically

    They suggest he will move to the US, earn £10m a year on speaking circuit & from books, and make a comeback

    They compare him to Churchill, his hero, who became PM for second time in 1951. 'Don't write him off'


    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1545718435006513152


    Churchill was LOTO between 45-51 though?

    More likely, if stays on the backbences these will be Boris's 1930's "wilderness years" - Perhaps he'll make a comeback if WW3 breaks out?
    Do you know, I think he might stay in Parliament. He won’t attend, but he’ll use it.

  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,130
    DavidL said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Farooq said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    - “there’s been a marked shift to Labour “

    Except, guess where?

    YouGov, the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples:

    London
    Lab 51%
    Con 20%
    LD 19%
    Grn 6%
    Ref 1%

    Rest of South
    Con 35%
    Lab 32%
    LD 19%
    Grn 8%
    Ref 2%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 41%
    Con 31%
    LD 11%
    Grn 7%
    PC 4%
    Ref 4%

    North
    Lab 52%
    Con 27%
    LD 9%
    Grn 5%
    Ref 5%

    Scotland
    SNP 49%
    Lab 21%
    Con 15%
    LD 10%
    Ref 3%
    Grn 2%

    (YouGov/The Times; Sample Size: 1,687; Fieldwork: 6-7 July 2022)

    Until the next Tory leader is elected not really relevant.

    Wallace might even get an SCon bounce in Scotland being a former MSP, Scots Guard and the type of dull, serious type like May and Brown Scots like
    Uncharacteristically brutal!

    OT. Any Scots know a good hotel in Edinburgh or close by that might have three rooms mid August?
    Try to book it NOW. Mid-festival is a tricky time for in or near Edinburgh. You're already late in booking now so get on with it.
    I think I'm already too late. The two or three I've tried have gone. Is there anywhere about 15 miles away which might have somewhere?
    Linlithgow is on the train line going directly into Edinburgh and is almost picturesque. Falkirk is a bit further out on the same line and is..not picturesque. Some availability at the Court Residence which gets 'exceptional' rating on booking.com.

    https://tinyurl.com/4cwsck43

    Linlithglow looks perfect but they don't have anywhere for my dates but I'll check out other places round there. Thanks very much and to Farooq
    PS. If anything else strikes you or a specific name it would be much appreciated. Is Livingstone OK?
    Livingston is a new town so maybe not your cup of tea.
    On the opposite side of Edinburgh as mentioned by someone else Gullane is very pleasant, though absolutely golf fecking mad. Haddington might also be an option, but cars would be a necessity for both.
    Livingston seems to me to have struggled in recent times. Its shopping centre is not what it was. There are far too many roundabouts and random bits of dual carriageway and the M8 really, really needs to be expanded to 3 lanes in its proximity to cope with the traffic generated. There are much nicer towns in the commuter belt for Edinburgh. Those to the south with the new railway seem to be doing particularly well.
    I certainly agree on the expanded M8. I've been to Livingston twice in my life, but the countless hours I've spent in queues of traffic to and from slip roads to Livvie..
  • Options
    Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,389
    Leon said:

    The Guardian, via Jonathan Freedland, wants to reverse Brexit, now Boris is gone

    “The dots are all there. Voters are already beginning to join them, even as Starmer insists that the subject is essentially closed. The politicians might not want to say it, but this week is a milestone in the fate of Brexit. The prime author of Britain’s exit from the EU has fallen: the standing of his calamitous project is heading the same way.”

    See that phrase and feel the chills in your blood

    “A milestone in the fate of Brexit”

    What fate? It’s done. Isn’t it?

    They want to reverse it and they will try to reverse it and Starmer won’t be able to resist the pressure to have a go

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/08/boris-johnson-lies-brexit-exit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Don't worry, Leon. I think that ship has sailed. Have a stiff drink to calm your nerves,...oh you have already?
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,934
    edited July 2022
    Leon said:

    The Guardian, via Jonathan Freedland, wants to reverse Brexit, now Boris is gone

    “The dots are all there. Voters are already beginning to join them, even as Starmer insists that the subject is essentially closed. The politicians might not want to say it, but this week is a milestone in the fate of Brexit. The prime author of Britain’s exit from the EU has fallen: the standing of his calamitous project is heading the same way.”

    See that phrase and feel the chills in your blood

    “A milestone in the fate of Brexit”

    What fate? It’s done. Isn’t it?

    They want to reverse it and they will try to reverse it and Starmer won’t be able to resist the pressure to have a go

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/08/boris-johnson-lies-brexit-exit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Electorally speaking if rejoin looks likely coming in to an election there will be a UKIP 2015 level of votes available to either a new Faragist party, or the Tories if they offer a no deal style permanent break away. And it will all get very very messy

    Edit - a low teens % of voters will absolutely lose their shit over it
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,292
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    The Guardian, via Jonathan Freedland, wants to reverse Brexit, now Boris is gone

    “The dots are all there. Voters are already beginning to join them, even as Starmer insists that the subject is essentially closed. The politicians might not want to say it, but this week is a milestone in the fate of Brexit. The prime author of Britain’s exit from the EU has fallen: the standing of his calamitous project is heading the same way.”

    See that phrase and feel the chills in your blood

    “A milestone in the fate of Brexit”

    What fate? It’s done. Isn’t it?

    They want to reverse it and they will try to reverse it and Starmer won’t be able to resist the pressure to have a go

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/08/boris-johnson-lies-brexit-exit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    There comes a time when we have done it and satisfied the mandate to do it and we can democratically decide to undo it again. When is that time if we're not already there?
    You might be right, philosophically

    But politically I reckon this is a poison pill for Labour. Starmer is right to try and close it down but it is unsustainable
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,292
    England likely heading for another defeat

    That will be the 5th in a row. Pitiful for a supposedly top team
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,934
    biggles said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    There's still bitterness towards Boris Johnson

    One cabinet minister described him as a 'cosmic c***'

    Gove aide ripped into Guto Harri, No 10 head of comms, branding 'snake' briefings 'f****** appalling'

    The bad blood is everywhere

    * Sunak compared to Theresa May

    * Zahawi ridiculed for past 48 hours

    * Truss described as 'mad' & female Boris Johnson

    * Javid critics highlight 'embarrassing' NHS briefing at cabinet recently

    * Ben Wallace questioned over Brexiteer credentials

    Boris Johnson allies think he's not done politically

    They suggest he will move to the US, earn £10m a year on speaking circuit & from books, and make a comeback

    They compare him to Churchill, his hero, who became PM for second time in 1951. 'Don't write him off'


    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1545718435006513152


    Churchill was LOTO between 45-51 though?

    More likely, if stays on the backbences these will be Boris's 1930's "wilderness years" - Perhaps he'll make a comeback if WW3 breaks out?
    Do you know, I think he might stay in Parliament. He won’t attend, but he’ll use it.

    Ted Heath redux
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    edited July 2022
    biggles said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    There's still bitterness towards Boris Johnson

    One cabinet minister described him as a 'cosmic c***'

    Gove aide ripped into Guto Harri, No 10 head of comms, branding 'snake' briefings 'f****** appalling'

    The bad blood is everywhere

    * Sunak compared to Theresa May

    * Zahawi ridiculed for past 48 hours

    * Truss described as 'mad' & female Boris Johnson

    * Javid critics highlight 'embarrassing' NHS briefing at cabinet recently

    * Ben Wallace questioned over Brexiteer credentials

    Boris Johnson allies think he's not done politically

    They suggest he will move to the US, earn £10m a year on speaking circuit & from books, and make a comeback

    They compare him to Churchill, his hero, who became PM for second time in 1951. 'Don't write him off'


    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1545718435006513152


    Churchill was LOTO between 45-51 though?

    More likely, if stays on the backbences these will be Boris's 1930's "wilderness years" - Perhaps he'll make a comeback if WW3 breaks out?
    Do you know, I think he might stay in Parliament. He won’t attend, but he’ll use it.

    I wouldn't be surprised. My guess is he'll mainly only speak about Ukraine and Putin (especially if the West's resolve against Russia starts to wobble) and Brexit.

    He'll probably lose his seat at the next election but he'll get a safe seat in no time if he wants one.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    The Guardian, via Jonathan Freedland, wants to reverse Brexit, now Boris is gone

    “The dots are all there. Voters are already beginning to join them, even as Starmer insists that the subject is essentially closed. The politicians might not want to say it, but this week is a milestone in the fate of Brexit. The prime author of Britain’s exit from the EU has fallen: the standing of his calamitous project is heading the same way.”

    See that phrase and feel the chills in your blood

    “A milestone in the fate of Brexit”

    What fate? It’s done. Isn’t it?

    They want to reverse it and they will try to reverse it and Starmer won’t be able to resist the pressure to have a go

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/08/boris-johnson-lies-brexit-exit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    There comes a time when we have done it and satisfied the mandate to do it and we can democratically decide to undo it again. When is that time if we're not already there?
    You might be right, philosophically

    But politically I reckon this is a poison pill for Labour. Starmer is right to try and close it down but it is unsustainable
    I just wanna be Norway. I voted remain but I thought it wasn't important because leave meant Norway anyway. There's surely a fudge there which leaves everybody happy, once the Tories are history.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,579
    edited July 2022

    Phil said:

    The Daily Mail has a curious, new obsession.

    I mean, we are familiar with its mania on Megan & Harry, its Royal fixation, its interest in the doings of minor Zelebs, the puff-pieces for Farage, its unhealthy interest in boats that are crossing the Channel, and so on.

    But, I have noticed in Mail Online over the last few weeks a new and slightly peculiar obsession.

    Lurpak Spreadable.

    There are been innumerable articles in the Mail on the price of Lurpak Spreadable, on how supermarkets are having to transfer security tags from bottles of whisky to Lurpak Spreadable to prevent vast shoplifting gangs, voxpops from shoppers stunned by the soaring price of Lurpak Spreadable, how to make your own Lurpak Spreadable, how Aldi's Nordpak Spreadable compares.

    And using Google news, I see the Express, the Mirror and the Record are similarly obsessed, e.g.,

    https://tinyurl.com/3upcpchz
    https://tinyurl.com/527wtavh
    https://tinyurl.com/mu9mwna3

    Tory leadership hopefuls needing a bit of 'common people' cred take note!

    "Your Lurpak Spreadable will cost your more under Rishi, but I will ensure every natural-born Briton has a right to affordable, spreadable Lurpak"

    A few years ago, I was having a chat with a checkout lady at a local shop. She mentioned that the two things that were shoplifted most were baby milk powder and alcohol.

    I can understand someone shoplifting the latter, but baby milk powder?

    I also hope they don't combine the two...
    If you’ve run out of cash, the baby can’t wait till you next get paid.
    It's also relatively expensive for the volume of it, so high value to be nicked, similar to razor blades.

    Once when we were pushing our pram through a poor part of town, a lady approached us and offered to sell us baby formula. We declined, but I was amazed even at the idea of someone trying to peddle potentially dodgy formula.
    Jack Monroe has a bizarre take on that:

    Your regular reminder that if you see someone stealing baby formula, nappies, bread, milk, pasta, ready meals, you didn’t see a fucking thing mind your own business and thank god you’re not so desperate for your own or your babies survival that you’d risk a criminal charge for it

    I know major organised theft has an impact on corporate profit margins, but when they pay their CEOs £5million a year while refusing their cleaning colleagues a living wage, and keep their checkout staff on poverty wages to bolster their shareholder profits, frankly fuck them.

    The person you should be judging in this situation is not the desperate individual who is risking incarceration for a £7 carton of powdered milk, but the politicians and hardwired system that caused them to be in that godawful situation in the first place. Always. Punch. Upwards.

    https://twitter.com/BootstrapCook/status/1544412963779624965

    Lots of strange assumptions in that. Jack Monroe, Twitter performance artist, as spokesperson for the poor, stopped working some time ago imo.

    Never mind that she wants to work with brands...
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,311
    Leon said:

    England likely heading for another defeat

    That will be the 5th in a row. Pitiful for a supposedly top team

    Match doesn't even start for an hour yet.

    Oh, the oddly shaped ball thing.
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,047
    edited July 2022
    It is perfectly possible to believe that young men are now in a less advantageous position in the dating market compared to 30 or 40 years ago and that the answer to this is not whining self pity, misogyny or even violence. What can be done? I would be interested in seeing some comparative research of different western countries to see what variances there are.

    What are the reasons for this change:

    1) Female financial independence. No longer getting married young or relying on a man's money.
    2) Lack of economic success amongst young men. Living at home, no well paid job or much prospects. There may be fewer men achieving economic success and it is certainly taking them longer to do so.
    3) Dating apps. They don't really work for the majority of men. Attractive men who are looking for multiple partners (whether or not they admit it) do very well but they are obviously a minority. Would these 'players' have more likely been tied down by marriage in an earlier generation?
    4) Pornography. Amplifies expectations (possibly for women as well) of a partner's appearance and is an easy way to have sexual gratification without needing to do the real thing
    5) Modern (addictive?) technology offers people so many more ways to avoid boredom and the need for an exterior life.

    The fertility rate in the UK has fallen to 1.65 as of 2019. I imagine covid will have a downward effect in the medium term. Some would argue (Adair Turner) that this isn't too much of a problem so long as you raise the retirement age. But if it falls much further to say Japanese or Korean levels you do have a major challenge. The average age of mothers and fathers has also increased and one has to accept this is linked to greater health challenges in children.
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,307
    Leon said:

    The Guardian, via Jonathan Freedland, wants to reverse Brexit, now Boris is gone

    “The dots are all there. Voters are already beginning to join them, even as Starmer insists that the subject is essentially closed. The politicians might not want to say it, but this week is a milestone in the fate of Brexit. The prime author of Britain’s exit from the EU has fallen: the standing of his calamitous project is heading the same way.”

    See that phrase and feel the chills in your blood

    “A milestone in the fate of Brexit”

    What fate? It’s done. Isn’t it?

    They want to reverse it and they will try to reverse it and Starmer won’t be able to resist the pressure to have a go

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/08/boris-johnson-lies-brexit-exit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Sorry, but Freedland doesn't have the power to get us readmitted to the EU. Your man Boris made a botched job of Brexit - Northern Ireland, global reputational damage, an Everest of bureaucracy and red tape - so someone has to clear up his mess. I'm hopeful that Rishi might be the one to do that, as I think he'll want to carve out his own lasting legacy rather than be a Boris tribute act who just relies on causing trouble. But we can't carry on as we are indefinitely. Someone has to get Brexit done.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,986
    Leon said:

    England likely heading for another defeat

    That will be the 5th in a row. Pitiful for a supposedly top team

    From 19-0 in front.
    Momentum all one way just now.
  • Options
    Wallace not running
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    Mr. W, I'm always highly suspicious of 'punching up' nonsense.

    It's just categorising groups that are beyond reproach, and those that are perfectly acceptable to hate (which is dubious as hell).
  • Options
    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,948
    https://twitter.com/BWallaceMP/status/1545732698567737344

    Rt. Hon Ben Wallace MP
    @BWallaceMP
    United Kingdom government official
    After careful consideration and discussing with colleagues and family, I have taken the decision not to enter the contest for leadership of the Conservative Party. I am very grateful to all my parliamentary colleagues and wider members who have pledged support.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    MattW said:

    Phil said:

    The Daily Mail has a curious, new obsession.

    I mean, we are familiar with its mania on Megan & Harry, its Royal fixation, its interest in the doings of minor Zelebs, the puff-pieces for Farage, its unhealthy interest in boats that are crossing the Channel, and so on.

    But, I have noticed in Mail Online over the last few weeks a new and slightly peculiar obsession.

    Lurpak Spreadable.

    There are been innumerable articles in the Mail on the price of Lurpak Spreadable, on how supermarkets are having to transfer security tags from bottles of whisky to Lurpak Spreadable to prevent vast shoplifting gangs, voxpops from shoppers stunned by the soaring price of Lurpak Spreadable, how to make your own Lurpak Spreadable, how Aldi's Nordpak Spreadable compares.

    And using Google news, I see the Express, the Mirror and the Record are similarly obsessed, e.g.,

    https://tinyurl.com/3upcpchz
    https://tinyurl.com/527wtavh
    https://tinyurl.com/mu9mwna3

    Tory leadership hopefuls needing a bit of 'common people' cred take note!

    "Your Lurpak Spreadable will cost your more under Rishi, but I will ensure every natural-born Briton has a right to affordable, spreadable Lurpak"

    A few years ago, I was having a chat with a checkout lady at a local shop. She mentioned that the two things that were shoplifted most were baby milk powder and alcohol.

    I can understand someone shoplifting the latter, but baby milk powder?

    I also hope they don't combine the two...
    If you’ve run out of cash, the baby can’t wait till you next get paid.
    It's also relatively expensive for the volume of it, so high value to be nicked, similar to razor blades.

    Once when we were pushing our pram through a poor part of town, a lady approached us and offered to sell us baby formula. We declined, but I was amazed even at the idea of someone trying to peddle potentially dodgy formula.
    Jack Monroe has a bizarre take on that:

    Your regular reminder that if you see someone stealing baby formula, nappies, bread, milk, pasta, ready meals, you didn’t see a fucking thing mind your own business and thank god you’re not so desperate for your own or your babies survival that you’d risk a criminal charge for it

    I know major organised theft has an impact on corporate profit margins, but when they pay their CEOs £5million a year while refusing their cleaning colleagues a living wage, and keep their checkout staff on poverty wages to bolster their shareholder profits, frankly fuck them.

    The person you should be judging in this situation is not the desperate individual who is risking incarceration for a £7 carton of powdered milk, but the politicians and hardwired system that caused them to be in that godawful situation in the first place. Always. Punch. Upwards.

    https://twitter.com/BootstrapCook/status/1544412963779624965

    Lots of strange assumptions in that. Jack Monroe, Twitter performance artist, as spokesperson for the poor, stopped working some time ago imo.

    Never mind that she wants to work with brands...
    Regular reminder that if you see someone stealing, that person is a thief, and that the people who will get hit by it are the checkout staff that Jack Monroe is shedding crocodile tears over.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,311

    Wallace not running

    Wow. So who is he going to throw his weight behind? @HYUFD will be in need of instructions.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    ohnotnow said:

    https://twitter.com/BWallaceMP/status/1545732698567737344

    Rt. Hon Ben Wallace MP
    @BWallaceMP
    United Kingdom government official
    After careful consideration and discussing with colleagues and family, I have taken the decision not to enter the contest for leadership of the Conservative Party. I am very grateful to all my parliamentary colleagues and wider members who have pledged support.

    There we go. I knew Wallace wasn't really interested in becoming PM.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,130
    ohnotnow said:

    https://twitter.com/BWallaceMP/status/1545732698567737344

    Rt. Hon Ben Wallace MP
    @BWallaceMP
    United Kingdom government official
    After careful consideration and discussing with colleagues and family, I have taken the decision not to enter the contest for leadership of the Conservative Party. I am very grateful to all my parliamentary colleagues and wider members who have pledged support.

    I guess his recommendation is going to carry a lot of weight?
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,986

    Wallace not running

    Right.
    I can peruse the market now the antepost favourite is a non-runner.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,429

    Wallace not running

    Thanks, was just about to ask why he was out to 80 on Betfair!
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    ohnotnow said:

    https://twitter.com/BWallaceMP/status/1545732698567737344

    Rt. Hon Ben Wallace MP
    @BWallaceMP
    United Kingdom government official
    After careful consideration and discussing with colleagues and family, I have taken the decision not to enter the contest for leadership of the Conservative Party. I am very grateful to all my parliamentary colleagues and wider members who have pledged support.

    I guess his recommendation is going to carry a lot of weight?
    Care to expand on that bald assertion?
  • Options
    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    Dating apps/sites are just shite, is a significant part of the problem. They just are. Nobody appears to really like them. Perhaps there's some tiny cohort of both men and women that genuinely like it, but for most folk it's a total chore that you do because it's bascially "how it's done" these days.

    In the early days, ok there was a bit of a stigma if you admitted you were on them, but it meant that the genuinely shy, lonely etc. had a place where equally genuinely shy, lonely people etc. could get in touch with each other. But because literally everything in the world has gone online and in a big way, then significant proportions of dating apps are just about people who normally wouldn't have ever had a problem meeting someone in the real world doing it instead online, because literally everything is done online now. Couple that with the other significant fraction which is folk who don't actually need or want a partner but just want to have a bit of a flirt with someone to remind themselves they're still attractive and all that essentially crowds out the rest of the scope for the people who really needed the dating app in the first place.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,846
    biggles said:

    Leon said:

    The Guardian, via Jonathan Freedland, wants to reverse Brexit, now Boris is gone

    “The dots are all there. Voters are already beginning to join them, even as Starmer insists that the subject is essentially closed. The politicians might not want to say it, but this week is a milestone in the fate of Brexit. The prime author of Britain’s exit from the EU has fallen: the standing of his calamitous project is heading the same way.”

    See that phrase and feel the chills in your blood

    “A milestone in the fate of Brexit”

    What fate? It’s done. Isn’t it?

    They want to reverse it and they will try to reverse it and Starmer won’t be able to resist the pressure to have a go

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/08/boris-johnson-lies-brexit-exit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Latest YouGov Brexit tracker

    Brexit Right 36%
    Brexit Wrong 50%
    DK 14%
    Wrong question. Is anyone polling on whether people want to rejoin, via a referendum”? We’re out now - the question is about joining and on what terms.

    I’m in the Brexit wrong but wouldn’t vote to re-join.

    That’s shared by many of my Remainer friends . The only circumstance where I would vote to re-join is if there was an overwhelming majority who wanted to do so .

    I think it’s for future generations to decide this issue but for now I don’t want to see the divisions re-opened .

    I’m very happy of course to see much closer relations with the EU and there are many areas where that can be done without re-opening the Brexit wounds .
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Get in
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    edited July 2022
    DavidL said:

    Wallace not running

    Wow. So who is he going to throw his weight behind? @HYUFD will be in need of instructions.
    I think he'll go for Truss or Mourdant. He won't trust Rish to spend on defence IMO.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    Leon said:

    The Guardian, via Jonathan Freedland, wants to reverse Brexit, now Boris is gone

    “The dots are all there. Voters are already beginning to join them, even as Starmer insists that the subject is essentially closed. The politicians might not want to say it, but this week is a milestone in the fate of Brexit. The prime author of Britain’s exit from the EU has fallen: the standing of his calamitous project is heading the same way.”

    See that phrase and feel the chills in your blood

    “A milestone in the fate of Brexit”

    What fate? It’s done. Isn’t it?

    They want to reverse it and they will try to reverse it and Starmer won’t be able to resist the pressure to have a go

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/08/boris-johnson-lies-brexit-exit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    It is not in our power to undo it. The original negotiations to join took 12 years. There is absolutely no appetite among the political classes, either here or in the EU, to go through that all over again.

    It's a huge mistake for FBPE types to think that we only voted to leave because people thought Boris Johnson was an amusing chap. David Herdson spelled it all it out in his 2014 article "It's a Question of When, not If.."
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    edited July 2022
    Laid Sunak a bit more at 2.7.

    Wallace could make Defence far more of a concern than usual.

    Edited extra bits: odds still tumbling...
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,487
    Pulpstar said:

    Get in

    Book says yes, but I really wanted as PM a man who wanted to give Michael Gove a penectomy.

    I would have mentioned that in thread headers a lot.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,429

    Wallace not running

    Thanks, was just about to ask why he was out to 80 on Betfair!
    Rishi 13/8 on Betfair after the Wallace withdrawal. Penny M 6/1. Liz T 7/1. Tom T 8/1. 12s bar.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Shame about Wallace. Seemed more human than the rest.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,429

    Laid Sunak a bit more at 2.7.

    Wallace could make Defence far more of a concern than usual.

    Don't rule out a deal with one of the market leaders to keep MoD and/or get nominated for Nato big cheese next year.
  • Options
    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    Jonathan said:

    Shame about Wallace. Seemed more human than the rest.

    He was probably best for the job in that precisely he was the only one who really couldn't give two fucks if he got the job or not, in that sense.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,579

    Leon said:

    The Guardian, via Jonathan Freedland, wants to reverse Brexit, now Boris is gone

    “The dots are all there. Voters are already beginning to join them, even as Starmer insists that the subject is essentially closed. The politicians might not want to say it, but this week is a milestone in the fate of Brexit. The prime author of Britain’s exit from the EU has fallen: the standing of his calamitous project is heading the same way.”

    See that phrase and feel the chills in your blood

    “A milestone in the fate of Brexit”

    What fate? It’s done. Isn’t it?

    They want to reverse it and they will try to reverse it and Starmer won’t be able to resist the pressure to have a go

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/08/boris-johnson-lies-brexit-exit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Don't worry, Leon. I think that ship has sailed. Have a stiff drink to calm your nerves,...oh you have already?
    I think on this one, Freedland is trapped in a metro-bubble that needs to be popped.

    It's been quite interesting this week listening to Brussels' based coverage of the Johnstone Defenestration. Michael Barnier was quite funny.

    This morning I've been listening to a German and a French MEP giving us their ineffable wisdom as to what the issues are in Northern Ireland. Surreal.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,311
    nico679 said:

    biggles said:

    Leon said:

    The Guardian, via Jonathan Freedland, wants to reverse Brexit, now Boris is gone

    “The dots are all there. Voters are already beginning to join them, even as Starmer insists that the subject is essentially closed. The politicians might not want to say it, but this week is a milestone in the fate of Brexit. The prime author of Britain’s exit from the EU has fallen: the standing of his calamitous project is heading the same way.”

    See that phrase and feel the chills in your blood

    “A milestone in the fate of Brexit”

    What fate? It’s done. Isn’t it?

    They want to reverse it and they will try to reverse it and Starmer won’t be able to resist the pressure to have a go

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/08/boris-johnson-lies-brexit-exit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Latest YouGov Brexit tracker

    Brexit Right 36%
    Brexit Wrong 50%
    DK 14%
    Wrong question. Is anyone polling on whether people want to rejoin, via a referendum”? We’re out now - the question is about joining and on what terms.

    I’m in the Brexit wrong but wouldn’t vote to re-join.

    That’s shared by many of my Remainer friends . The only circumstance where I would vote to re-join is if there was an overwhelming majority who wanted to do so .

    I think it’s for future generations to decide this issue but for now I don’t want to see the divisions re-opened .

    I’m very happy of course to see much closer relations with the EU and there are many areas where that can be done without re-opening the Brexit wounds .
    I am still in the good idea camp and have seen little to nothing from the EU since we left that makes me regret the decision at all but I could not agree more with your final sentence. We need to move past this and a change in leadership to someone less invested in the issue really should create opportunities that we can seize for our mutual benefit.

    I also frankly wonder how much this good/bad idea polling is simply a reflection of Boris's unpopularity.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,487
    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    The Guardian, via Jonathan Freedland, wants to reverse Brexit, now Boris is gone

    “The dots are all there. Voters are already beginning to join them, even as Starmer insists that the subject is essentially closed. The politicians might not want to say it, but this week is a milestone in the fate of Brexit. The prime author of Britain’s exit from the EU has fallen: the standing of his calamitous project is heading the same way.”

    See that phrase and feel the chills in your blood

    “A milestone in the fate of Brexit”

    What fate? It’s done. Isn’t it?

    They want to reverse it and they will try to reverse it and Starmer won’t be able to resist the pressure to have a go

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/08/boris-johnson-lies-brexit-exit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    It is not in our power to undo it. The original negotiations to join took 12 years. There is absolutely no appetite among the political classes, either here or in the EU, to go through that all over again.

    It's a huge mistake for FBPE types to think that we only voted to leave because people thought Boris Johnson was an amusing chap. David Herdson spelled it all it out in his 2014 article "It's a Question of When, not If.."
    I still remember something Gove said in 2016, if the country decides Brexit was a mistake, they'll reverse it.

    I suspect it'll be via incrementalism, we'll join the single market.....
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,986

    Laid Sunak a bit more at 2.7.

    Wallace could make Defence far more of a concern than usual.

    Don't rule out a deal with one of the market leaders to keep MoD and/or get nominated for Nato big cheese next year.
    I think his anointing might be worth FS if he wanted it.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,986
    Nice to see a politician with a bit of self-awareness for a change.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Scott_xP said:

    There's still bitterness towards Boris Johnson

    One cabinet minister described him as a 'cosmic c***'

    Gove aide ripped into Guto Harri, No 10 head of comms, branding 'snake' briefings 'f****** appalling'

    The bad blood is everywhere

    * Sunak compared to Theresa May

    * Zahawi ridiculed for past 48 hours

    * Truss described as 'mad' & female Boris Johnson

    * Javid critics highlight 'embarrassing' NHS briefing at cabinet recently

    * Ben Wallace questioned over Brexiteer credentials

    Boris Johnson allies think he's not done politically

    They suggest he will move to the US, earn £10m a year on speaking circuit & from books, and make a comeback

    They compare him to Churchill, his hero, who became PM for second time in 1951. 'Don't write him off'


    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1545718435006513152

    “Ben Wallace questioned over Brexiteer credentials”

    That’s not a negative.

    That Churchill 1951 government was a pig’s ear.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,986
    It's going to be Braverman, isn't it.

    They are going to be begging BoZo to come back...
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,047
    Nobody is mentioning Gove. Will his endorsement be critical? If he and Wallace were to line up behind someone like Truss/Sunak/Mordaunt that could be massive.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    GIN1138 said:

    DavidL said:

    Wallace not running

    Wow. So who is he going to throw his weight behind? @HYUFD will be in need of instructions.
    I think he'll go for Truss or Mourdant. He won't trust Rish to spend on defence IMO.
    Military remainer so Tugendhat? If they aren't too much at odds over Air Doggie

    NB Aaron is a Tugendhat man
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,130
    IshmaelZ said:

    ohnotnow said:

    https://twitter.com/BWallaceMP/status/1545732698567737344

    Rt. Hon Ben Wallace MP
    @BWallaceMP
    United Kingdom government official
    After careful consideration and discussing with colleagues and family, I have taken the decision not to enter the contest for leadership of the Conservative Party. I am very grateful to all my parliamentary colleagues and wider members who have pledged support.

    I guess his recommendation is going to carry a lot of weight?
    Care to expand on that bald assertion?
    Tried to do a tonto-tonsure mashup.
    Failed.

    Mind you, bringing mock executions to the No 10 whipping operation would have been an exciting new development.

    'Ben Wallace suggested soldiers might ‘pretend to pour petrol’ over prisoners on battlefield'

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/08/defence-secretary-under-fire-for-appearing-to-condone-torture
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,259
    Kemi is too long at 25 imho.

    Time to top up further me thinks.
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    Wallace was never really a viable PM candidate to my mind. Setting aside the difficulty that is seen to be associated with balding men as leader of their party, he just never resonated beyond the area of defence. He has the feel of a very decent second in command. The sort you can send out to rally people. Maybe even an attack dog. But not someone to inspire and lead a nation.
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,307
    nico679 said:

    biggles said:

    Leon said:

    The Guardian, via Jonathan Freedland, wants to reverse Brexit, now Boris is gone

    “The dots are all there. Voters are already beginning to join them, even as Starmer insists that the subject is essentially closed. The politicians might not want to say it, but this week is a milestone in the fate of Brexit. The prime author of Britain’s exit from the EU has fallen: the standing of his calamitous project is heading the same way.”

    See that phrase and feel the chills in your blood

    “A milestone in the fate of Brexit”

    What fate? It’s done. Isn’t it?

    They want to reverse it and they will try to reverse it and Starmer won’t be able to resist the pressure to have a go

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/08/boris-johnson-lies-brexit-exit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Latest YouGov Brexit tracker

    Brexit Right 36%
    Brexit Wrong 50%
    DK 14%
    Wrong question. Is anyone polling on whether people want to rejoin, via a referendum”? We’re out now - the question is about joining and on what terms.

    I’m in the Brexit wrong but wouldn’t vote to re-join.

    That’s shared by many of my Remainer friends . The only circumstance where I would vote to re-join is if there was an overwhelming majority who wanted to do so .

    I think it’s for future generations to decide this issue but for now I don’t want to see the divisions re-opened .

    I’m very happy of course to see much closer relations with the EU and there are many areas where that can be done without re-opening the Brexit wounds .
    That's absolutely correct. This rejoin-the-EU stuff is just Boris's admirers trying to refight the only battle their man could win.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Nobody is mentioning Gove. Will his endorsement be critical? If he and Wallace were to line up behind someone like Truss/Sunak/Mordaunt that could be massive.

    Wallace wanted to cut Goves dick off in 2016...
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,487

    Nobody is mentioning Gove. Will his endorsement be critical? If he and Wallace were to line up behind someone like Truss/Sunak/Mordaunt that could be massive.

    No.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,846
    edited July 2022
    DavidL said:

    nico679 said:

    biggles said:

    Leon said:

    The Guardian, via Jonathan Freedland, wants to reverse Brexit, now Boris is gone

    “The dots are all there. Voters are already beginning to join them, even as Starmer insists that the subject is essentially closed. The politicians might not want to say it, but this week is a milestone in the fate of Brexit. The prime author of Britain’s exit from the EU has fallen: the standing of his calamitous project is heading the same way.”

    See that phrase and feel the chills in your blood

    “A milestone in the fate of Brexit”

    What fate? It’s done. Isn’t it?

    They want to reverse it and they will try to reverse it and Starmer won’t be able to resist the pressure to have a go

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/08/boris-johnson-lies-brexit-exit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Latest YouGov Brexit tracker

    Brexit Right 36%
    Brexit Wrong 50%
    DK 14%
    Wrong question. Is anyone polling on whether people want to rejoin, via a referendum”? We’re out now - the question is about joining and on what terms.

    I’m in the Brexit wrong but wouldn’t vote to re-join.

    That’s shared by many of my Remainer friends . The only circumstance where I would vote to re-join is if there was an overwhelming majority who wanted to do so .

    I think it’s for future generations to decide this issue but for now I don’t want to see the divisions re-opened .

    I’m very happy of course to see much closer relations with the EU and there are many areas where that can be done without re-opening the Brexit wounds .
    I am still in the good idea camp and have seen little to nothing from the EU since we left that makes me regret the decision at all but I could not agree more with your final sentence. We need to move past this and a change in leadership to someone less invested in the issue really should create opportunities that we can seize for our mutual benefit.

    I also frankly wonder how much this good/bad idea polling is simply a reflection of Boris's unpopularity.
    I hope that any future leader has a more pragmatic approach to the EU rather than trying to be antagonistic in an attempt to deflect from their failures at home.

    Regarding the NI protocol it’s not just practical issues but trust .There are things the EU would be willing to do if more trust can be built.

    If the leadership campaign becomes a race to show how much they hate the EU that would be tragic and a missed opportunity.

  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,986
    Crash for Pogacar is about the only thing that can make GC competitive this year.
    Needs a bigger one than that, mind.
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,047

    Wallace not running

    Thanks, was just about to ask why he was out to 80 on Betfair!
    Rishi 13/8 on Betfair after the Wallace withdrawal. Penny M 6/1. Liz T 7/1. Tom T 8/1. 12s bar.
    Rishi is too short.

    No sniggering, he's taller than me.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    edited July 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    GIN1138 said:

    DavidL said:

    Wallace not running

    Wow. So who is he going to throw his weight behind? @HYUFD will be in need of instructions.
    I think he'll go for Truss or Mourdant. He won't trust Rish to spend on defence IMO.
    Military remainer so Tugendhat? If they aren't too much at odds over Air Doggie

    NB Aaron is a Tugendhat man
    Nah. Next PM has to be someone from the Cabinet (or with Cabinet experience at least)

    Tom is just wasting everyone's time at this point...
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,292

    nico679 said:

    biggles said:

    Leon said:

    The Guardian, via Jonathan Freedland, wants to reverse Brexit, now Boris is gone

    “The dots are all there. Voters are already beginning to join them, even as Starmer insists that the subject is essentially closed. The politicians might not want to say it, but this week is a milestone in the fate of Brexit. The prime author of Britain’s exit from the EU has fallen: the standing of his calamitous project is heading the same way.”

    See that phrase and feel the chills in your blood

    “A milestone in the fate of Brexit”

    What fate? It’s done. Isn’t it?

    They want to reverse it and they will try to reverse it and Starmer won’t be able to resist the pressure to have a go

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/08/boris-johnson-lies-brexit-exit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Latest YouGov Brexit tracker

    Brexit Right 36%
    Brexit Wrong 50%
    DK 14%
    Wrong question. Is anyone polling on whether people want to rejoin, via a referendum”? We’re out now - the question is about joining and on what terms.

    I’m in the Brexit wrong but wouldn’t vote to re-join.

    That’s shared by many of my Remainer friends . The only circumstance where I would vote to re-join is if there was an overwhelming majority who wanted to do so .

    I think it’s for future generations to decide this issue but for now I don’t want to see the divisions re-opened .

    I’m very happy of course to see much closer relations with the EU and there are many areas where that can be done without re-opening the Brexit wounds .
    That's absolutely correct. This rejoin-the-EU stuff is just Boris's admirers trying to refight the only battle their man could win.
    But this is from the Guardian, and one of their most senior columnists, not some random Borisite

    Like it or not there is a yearning amongst millions to reverse Brexit, this will be very hard for Starmer to manage
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,487
    GIN1138 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    GIN1138 said:

    DavidL said:

    Wallace not running

    Wow. So who is he going to throw his weight behind? @HYUFD will be in need of instructions.
    I think he'll go for Truss or Mourdant. He won't trust Rish to spend on defence IMO.
    Military remainer so Tugendhat? If they aren't too much at odds over Air Doggie

    NB Aaron is a Tugendhat man
    Nah. Next PM has to be someone from the Cabinet (or with Cabinet experience at least)

    Tom is just wasting everyone's time at this point...
    Boris was outside the cabinet when he became PM.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,986
    IshmaelZ said:

    Nobody is mentioning Gove. Will his endorsement be critical? If he and Wallace were to line up behind someone like Truss/Sunak/Mordaunt that could be massive.

    Wallace wanted to cut Goves dick off in 2016...
    Makes me rethink my sausage and chips plan.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,429

    Kemi is too long at 25 imho.

    Time to top up further me thinks.

    33/1 from the books according to Oddschecker in the next leader market.

    BETTING POINT several books and exchanges are running separate next PM and next Tory leader markets.
This discussion has been closed.