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In the VI polling, there’s been a marked shift to LAB – politicalbetting.com

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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831

    There was a good article (must find it) about how the experience of living in the areas taken over by Russia in 2014 had collapsed support among formerly pro-Russian Ukrainians. Literally gangster states - armed men stealing what they like.
    Yes, I saw that too. I think it was in the Guardian.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914
    Phil said:

    There was a good essay on this topic in the LRB, exploring the space around consent, the need for an absolute right to choose & refuse whoever we want (or do not want) to sleep with & how that impacts the wider issues around prejudice & identity & the modern world of dating.

    No strong conclusions IIRC, but rather a “here’s how personal choices (which we have to defend, for obvious reasons) can feed into societal level prejudice that we might want to talk about, because that matters too”. This isn‘t (necessarily) about trans issues - the main focus of the essay was incel culture IIRC.

    I’ll see if I can dig up the link - it might be online.

    Edit: found it! https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v40/n06/amia-srinivasan/does-anyone-have-the-right-to-sex
    It’s a very real problem: incels - made worse by online dating apps

    If you’ve got half the males in your society not getting any, then that is a recipe for severe turmoil. See multiple Islamic societies through the ages

    Many mass shootings in America are perped by incels. And you can see why. If you are denied the chance to ever reproduce, and denied the chance to ever enjoy sex, then what is left? Some people can find solace in other things. Many can’t


  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    Farooq said:

    Try to book it NOW. Mid-festival is a tricky time for in or near Edinburgh. You're already late in booking now so get on with it.
    More specifically: Arts Festival (there are lots all year round). I wouldn't even go into Edinburgh in Arts Festival time, never mind stay there, unless I wanted to go to an AF event. Prices go up in restaurants as well as hotels. It's a ****ing pain.

    If you are having difficulty: if it is a one day event, and you are driving up, it might be an idea to look at staying somewhere to the south/east/etc and bussing/training in, or driving to one of the the park and rides around the ring road - Peebles, Galashiels, North Berwick, Dunbar, even Berwick, etc. . But DYR re buses and trains.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,105
    Farooq said:

    Try to book it NOW. Mid-festival is a tricky time for in or near Edinburgh. You're already late in booking now so get on with it.
    I think I'm already too late. The two or three I've tried have gone. Is there anywhere about 15 miles away which might have somewhere?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831
    edited July 2022

    Personally I am pretty convinced that Heathener is another Leon creation. My reasons for thinking it are as follows. Use of a VPN, but is clearly authentically British. Beyond parody in her support for woke. Now turns out to be a writer, and a lesbian, characteristics shared with Leon's previous female personas. Writes in a very similar style. Short, sharp paragraphs, single word retorts.

    I am not particularly upset about it, more bemused - indeed the sheer logistical prowess of managing two way conversations is quite astonishing.

    The tic that normally gives his various accounts away is the sudden random use of capitals for a single WORD with no logic to it whatsoever.

    He just can’t help himself. See for example 1017.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004
    edited July 2022

    Yours sounds more fun! Mine involved a lot of spreadsheets and some programming that I did to do parts of the analysis.

    From memory my conclusion was that share prices are (in general) linked well to a multiplier of risk-averse time value of money expected value of future dividends, and that (in general) they tend to be reasonably accurate as such. Of course expectations can be wrong.

    Whether Tesla sticks to the risk-averse element of that I would certainly be sceptical about, but its certainly right that TVM of EV of future dividends matters more than present ones.
    The bet with Tesla is basically that it dominates the future mass EV market.
    I'm sceptical, and hold some Toyota stock as globally that is the biggest car seller.
  • I just watched the Ready4Rishi video. I think it might be a deep fake released by Mrs Sunak and her IT pals.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249

    The talk from the Davos economic forum was all that people just need to accept being a lot poorer, and no country should attempt to step out of line (eg on greenery) to avoid this pain. That is a dismal, distorted view of economies and their ability to thrive if allowed to do so. And it seems to me like Sunak is fully signed up to that. As Boris, I believe, saw, with his belated plan to reverse the increase in corporation tax (I mean what an effing stupid idea!) etc.

    You yourself have shared many creative ideas for creating prosperity here. More than ever we need a creative leader who will defy the prevailing conditions, not just tell us about them in a nice suit.
    Sadly, I think that the kind of growth in real incomes Western countries enjoyed from 1950 to 2000 is gone for good. Places like Greece and Italy have barely seen real incomes move over twenty years.

    Davos Man and Woman, however, would certainly not consider that they themselves are bound by the new austerity. The fruits of office and rent-seeking are what they see as their entitlement.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Roger said:
    Unusual for The Guardian to run an article critical of Conservatives.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    Farooq said:

    Good heckle. If it really happened that way
    A little long to be a classic or even plausible heckle, from the operator of the "screwlabour" account.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,105

    Unusual for The Guardian to run an article critical of Conservatives.
    Let your guard down-she's funny!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249
    DavidL said:

    Where was the bastion of white privilege, the right wing loons and ignorant racism? The Conservative party. A party now dominated by ethnic minorities with Rishi, the Saj, Nahawi, Braverman (lord help us) and Patel (probbaly beyond even his power) in the front runners. Anyone trying to claim that this country has not changed in a very good way over the last 15-20 years just does not want it to be so.
    And, we've reached the stage where ethnic minority Conservative politicians can be criticised on the same terms as their white colleagues.
  • Sunak's prospects are being overstated due to a slick launch.

    He has a lot of drawbacks. His last Budget was utterly tone-deaf, he clearly doesn't agree with a lot of colleagues on deficit/taxes, and he has precisely the same number of FPNs as Johnson.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831
    Sean_F said:

    At this very early stage, I think Kemi Badenoch or Penny Mordaunt would be my choices. It's time to roll the dice, as the Conservatives did in 1975.
    Normally done in opposition, however.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    EPG said:

    A little long to be a classic or even plausible heckle, from the operator of the "screwlabour" account.
    When MacMillan said 'youve never had it so good' i kneed him in the balls and replied 'thats what i said to your mum last night'
    True story
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,644

    What happens if some of the Ukrainian troops being trained here refuse to go back and claim asylum/refugee status?
    We need to be wary a lot of the reporting of the war, much of which is really anecdotal stuff designed to entertain partisan readers/listeners. Objectively it's clear that the Russians tried for a quick total victory and failed badly; and that they are gradually taking Donbas at huge cost. Most of the rest is propaganda, including Putin boasting that he's only just begun and Ukrainians speculating that they'll retake Kherson imminently. It's likely to move very slowly for months.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,554
    Sean_F said:

    It ought to be axiomatic that anybody is entitled to refuse sex to anybody else, without having to justify their reasons for doing so.
    No means No.

    I will read the essay with interest.
  • Pulpstar said:

    The bet with Tesla is basically that it dominates the future mass EV market.
    I'm sceptical, and hold some Toyota stock as globally that is the biggest car seller.
    Indeed, for clarity though I'm sure you understood it, my use of EV (expected value) was different to EV (electric vehicles).

    There is a major amount of risk involved in Tesla shares at the moment, as it certainly is a bet. Worst case, Tesla remains a niche but profitable business - it will have some value, but nothing like its present valuation.

    Best case Tesla dominates the car market and profitably expands its technology beyond just cars (see powerwalls etc) in which case its current valuation could undervalue it.

    Considering the market is normally supposed to be risk-averse, I would suggest that Tesla is overvalued compared to what it should be, as people seem to have significantly bought into the best case scenario more than risk-adjusted for the worse case scenarios, as would normally happen in the market.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839
    edited July 2022
    Roger said:

    I think I'm already too late. The two or three I've tried have gone. Is there anywhere about 15 miles away which might have somewhere?
    I'm not Scottish but: have you looked at Gullane? Lots of top golf courses there and so it's got a fairly good hotel trade AIR. Nice place too. Not sure what the transport links to Edinburgh are like though.

    I had a really lovely time in Dunbar once, which is a bit further away but on the ECML. However, trains in Scotland have issues right now.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,529
    Sean_F said:

    IMHO, next week's polls will have the Conservatives back in the low to mid thirties. There will be a lot of relief that Johnson is finally going.
    But is he going, Sean? In our eyes he may have resigned but in his own I suspect he is just buying time.

    Anyway I note your eminent view with interest. Personally I suspect we will see 25% before a return to 35% but I'm not betting on it.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,261
    Pulpstar said:

    The bet with Tesla is basically that it dominates the future mass EV market.
    I'm sceptical, and hold some Toyota stock as globally that is the biggest car seller.
    Tesla will need to get a lot better at making reliable cars if they want to dominate the car market.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,639

    The Anti-Drefusards simply moved to the NF - Le Pens lot. A French friend commented on
    how you could tell a lot in some rural areas - older people of a certain inclination would have a picture of Petain on display in their homes…
    Maybe - but for 60 years after the war they were a pressure group, not one half of a fundamental ideological divide splitting the country in two.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited July 2022
    Roger said:

    Let your guard down-she's funny!
    Yes yes i know but its tainted by being in that dreary rag of a paper.
    We can all take the piss out of the Tories but put in in the Guardian and it instantly gets an air of pungent panty bunched earnestness
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,322
    Leon said:

    Well done Ireland. Totally deserved

    Winning away in NZ (and Aussie) in 2002 was a key step before winning the WC in 2003 for England.
    Ireland are walking the same path. Perhaps the French might be the biggest challenger?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,973
    Roger said:

    I think I'm already too late. The two or three I've tried have gone. Is there anywhere about 15 miles away which might have somewhere?
    Linlithgow is on the train line going directly into Edinburgh and is almost picturesque. Falkirk is a bit further out on the same line and is..not picturesque. Some availability at the Court Residence which gets 'exceptional' rating on booking.com.

    https://tinyurl.com/4cwsck43

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249
    edited July 2022
    Phil said:

    Abolutely. And the essay is absolutely clear about that too. I recommend it - it’s worth reading.
    In my view, even if it does generate wider prejudice, this is an instance where the rights of the individual are paramount.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,755
    edited July 2022
    Sean_F said:

    And, we've reached the stage where ethnic minority Conservative politicians can be criticised on the same terms as their white colleagues.
    Maybe, although I still find it a bit sick how some outer London conservatives can keep using the fear of Khan dog-whistles in their get out the vote messaging.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839
    Cyclefree said:

    A radical idea this. But men could try making themselves attractive to women.
    You expect men to make the effort? How unreasonable.

    (JUST TO BE CLEAR, I AM BEING SARCASTIC.) (And the caps lock wasn't deliberate, but it works.)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249
    Cyclefree said:

    A radical idea this. But men could try making themselves attractive to women.
    And, it really isn't that difficult. If I can find a wonderful wife, so can any man.
  • Leon said:

    It’s a very real problem: incels - made worse by online dating apps

    If you’ve got half the males in your society not getting any, then that is a recipe for severe turmoil. See multiple Islamic societies through the ages

    Many mass shootings in America are perped by incels. And you can see why. If you are denied the chance to ever reproduce, and denied the chance to ever enjoy sex, then what is left? Some people can find solace in other things. Many can’t


    You're using exactly the same logic as "cotton ceiling" advocates use.

    Nobody has a right to demand sex from anyone else. Anyone who wants it, should find someone who wants it with them, and try to make themselves attractive to them.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,639
    edited July 2022

    Winning away in NZ (and Aussie) in 2002 was a key step before winning the WC in 2003 for England.
    Ireland are walking the same path. Perhaps the French might be the biggest challenger?
    England didn’t tour the SH in 2002. Those wins were in 2003, a warm up tour immediately before the WC.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_England_national_rugby_union_team_results_2000–2009
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249

    But is he going, Sean? In our eyes he may have resigned but in his own I suspect he is just buying time.

    Anyway I note your eminent view with interest. Personally I suspect we will see 25% before a return to 35% but I'm not betting on it.
    In his eyes maybe, but the game is up.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,929

    But is he going, Sean? In our eyes he may have resigned but in his own I suspect he is just buying time.

    Anyway I note your eminent view with interest. Personally I suspect we will see 25% before a return to 35% but I'm not betting on it.
    Yes, I'm convinced that in Boris's mind his ousting was just a bit of lunacy that got out of control. Hence his explicit reference to 'herd' behaviour - idiots who can't think for themselves getting caught up in the moment. I can't see how Boris could engineer a comeback from here, but he's far more devious than me, and if there is a way he'll find it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,818
    Musing on what little I know about Sunak.
    One point. Is he a good campaigner?
    He wasn't senior enough to play much of a role last time.
    And his seat has never been competitive.
    How would he do in a debate? I've never heard him comment on much outwith the economy.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914
    Cyclefree said:

    A radical idea this. But men could try making themselves attractive to women.
    Don’t be infantile

    These men are incels because they are short, or on the spectrum, or weedy, bespectacled, spotty

    What are they meant to do? Grow 30 centimeters? Suddenly become big and ripped rather than thin and scrawny? Or maybe they should develop charming personalities overnight, even tho this is impossible if you are naturally shy, gauche and awkward

    Stop belittling men, and this real suffering, just because you’re a woman and have never and will never experience it, as incel status is almost universally a male experience

    You’re no better than a white person saying to a black person, “you should just act more white”

    Tsk. I thought better of you

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    But is he going, Sean? In our eyes he may have resigned but in his own I suspect he is just buying time.

    Anyway I note your eminent view with interest. Personally I suspect we will see 25% before a return to 35% but I'm not betting on it.
    On what planet would he have a single MP left supporting him if he tried to reverse ferret?
    I mean i just don't get the idea. He has announced his departure in front of Downing Street, he has told the Queen, a leadership election is underway, his cabinet are there solely because he has agreed to go.

    'Hes planning to stay!' Is a worse and less pausible twist than season 8 of Game of Thrones
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,322
    DougSeal said:

    England didn’t tour the SH in 2002. Those wins were in 2003, a warm up tour immediately before the WC.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_England_national_rugby_union_team_results_2000–2009
    Ah - false memory syndrome! Cheers
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249
    edited July 2022
    Farooq said:

    Good heckle. If it really happened that way
    The best heckle I ever saw on TV was Harold Wilson who confronted a protester who shouted that he was "giving in to the savages", by opposing UDI in Rhodesia.

    "I'm not giving in to savages. I just let them come to this meeting." That's a "No You", if ever I heard it.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,973
    Farooq said:

    Oh god, I forgot to point out that Falkirk is a total shithole when I mentioned it. Good catch. I intended to make it clear but did not.
    Although the Kelpies at night are WELL worth a visit and it's easy if you're in Falkirk and you have a car. Lit up with slowly changing coloured lights, on a late summer evening as the last of the day turns rusty black, they are one of the most magical sights in the whole of the UK. To stand under the down-facing horse's gaze in the gloaming gives you a primal shiver.
    Yeah, the Kelpies are good. On paper it sounds like they may be unbearably kitsch, but they do in fact work really well.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,712
    Leon said:

    Don’t be infantile

    These men are incels because they are short, or on the spectrum, or weedy, bespectacled, spotty

    What are they meant to do? Grow 30 centimeters? Suddenly become big and ripped rather than thin and scrawny? Or maybe they should develop charming personalities overnight, even tho this is impossible if you are naturally shy, gauche and awkward

    Stop belittling men, and this real suffering, just because you’re a woman and have never and will never experience it, as incel status is almost universally a male experience

    You’re no better than a white person saying to a black person, “you should just act more white”

    Tsk. I thought better of you

    Sounds like the wedding may be off then.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,529
    edited July 2022

    Yes, I'm convinced that in Boris's mind his ousting was just a bit of lunacy that got out of control. Hence his explicit reference to 'herd' behaviour - idiots who can't think for themselves getting caught up in the moment. I can't see how Boris could engineer a comeback from here, but he's far more devious than me, and if there is a way he'll find it.
    I agree. He's untrustworthy and he'll use any trick in the book.

    By the way, time was when 'the Tory herd' was a term of mild abuse directed at Conservative supporters on this site. It was generally playfully intended, but a bit snarky nevertheless. Not sure it's clever for the erstwhile Party Leader to apply it to his own voters.

    Surprised there hasn't been more reaction from 'the herd'.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249
    DougSeal said:

    Maybe - but for 60 years after the war they were a pressure group, not one half of a fundamental ideological divide splitting the country in two.
    Vichy utterly discredited them. There is a totally reactionary element of the French electorate, but I think even among FN/RN voters they're a distinct minority. A big part of their support comes from ex-Communists, and increasingly, ex-mainstream right.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914

    You're using exactly the same logic as "cotton ceiling" advocates use.

    Nobody has a right to demand sex from anyone else. Anyone who wants it, should find someone who wants it with them, and try to make themselves attractive to them.
    Where the FUCK do I say “anyone has a right to demand sex from someone else”

    Really? WHERE? Stop putting words in my mouth, you prat

    I’m saying this is a real social problem, and it has got majorly worse because of dating apps meaning women don’t give the bottom 50% of men (in terms of looks) even a chance of a conversation. How do we fix it? I dunno. But the stats on young people - especially men - going without sex, are truly alarming

    This does not mean an incel man has a right to sex from a woman who does not want to give it. Of course he doesn’t. It’s her body
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,639

    Ah - false memory syndrome! Cheers
    Sorry, I was suffering from PB pedant syndrome!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249
    Leon said:

    Where the FUCK do I say “anyone has a right to demand sex from someone else”

    Really? WHERE? Stop putting words in my mouth, you prat

    I’m saying this is a real social problem, and it has got majorly worse because of dating apps meaning women don’t give the bottom 50% of men (in terms of looks) even a chance of a conversation. How do we fix it? I dunno. But the stats on young people - especially men - going without sex, are truly alarming

    This does not mean an incel man has a right to sex from a woman who does not want to give it. Of course he doesn’t. It’s her body
    Well, that's where prostitution serves a social function. They can get sex, but they have to pay for it.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    dixiedean said:

    Musing on what little I know about Sunak.
    One point. Is he a good campaigner?
    He wasn't senior enough to play much of a role last time.
    And his seat has never been competitive.
    How would he do in a debate? I've never heard him comment on much outwith the economy.

    He stood in for Bozo in 2019 in a couple of the TV debates and was OK
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004
    Long odds outsider Jake Berry has pulled up according to Guido.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,262
    ydoethur said:

    You expect men to make the effort? How unreasonable.

    (JUST TO BE CLEAR, I AM BEING SARCASTIC.) (And the caps lock wasn't deliberate, but it works.)
    Massive increase in sales of Lynx? Asking for a young friend!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited July 2022
    Farooq said:

    Maybe cancel your subscription if you aren't enjoying it
    No need, they shove it all out for free online so we get to enjoy it regardless
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,261
    Leon said:

    Where the FUCK do I say “anyone has a right to demand sex from someone else”

    Really? WHERE? Stop putting words in my mouth, you prat

    I’m saying this is a real social problem, and it has got majorly worse because of dating apps meaning women don’t give the bottom 50% of men (in terms of looks) even a chance of a conversation. How do we fix it? I dunno. But the stats on young people - especially men - going without sex, are truly alarming

    This does not mean an incel man has a right to sex from a woman who does not want to give it. Of course he doesn’t. It’s her body
    Is this right? I see quite a lot of ugly looking blokes who have managed to pull - including myself! Even plenty of dating apps focus more on personality than looks.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited July 2022
    The Daily Mail has a curious, new obsession.

    I mean, we are familiar with its mania on Megan & Harry, its Royal fixation, its interest in the doings of minor Zelebs, the puff-pieces for Farage, its unhealthy interest in boats that are crossing the Channel, and so on.

    But, I have noticed in Mail Online over the last few weeks a new and slightly peculiar obsession.

    Lurpak Spreadable.

    There are been innumerable articles in the Mail on the price of Lurpak Spreadable, on how supermarkets are having to transfer security tags from bottles of whisky to Lurpak Spreadable to prevent vast shoplifting gangs, voxpops from shoppers stunned by the soaring price of Lurpak Spreadable, how to make your own Lurpak Spreadable, how Aldi's Nordpak Spreadable compares.

    And using Google news, I see the Express, the Mirror and the Record are similarly obsessed, e.g.,

    https://tinyurl.com/3upcpchz
    https://tinyurl.com/527wtavh
    https://tinyurl.com/mu9mwna3

    Tory leadership hopefuls needing a bit of 'common people' cred take note!

    "Your Lurpak Spreadable will cost your more under Rishi, but I will ensure every natural-born Briton has a right to affordable, spreadable Lurpak"
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914
    Sean_F said:

    Well, that's where prostitution serves a social function. They can get sex, but they have to pay for it.
    Indeed. Yet some feminists would close that down, as well

    The answer might in the end be AI and VR. Sex bots. But we are a long way from that and s rocky path awaits
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,322
    DougSeal said:

    Sorry, I was suffering from PB pedant syndrome!
    Only a hypocrite would take issue with being pedantic! Genuinely had it in my head as 2002. Marbles going...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,818
    Pulpstar said:

    Long odds outsider Jake Berry has pulled up according to Guido.

    That's in the Guardian too.
    No candidate explicitly running on northern issues so far.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,929
    Leon said:

    Don’t be infantile

    These men are incels because they are short, or on the spectrum, or weedy, bespectacled, spotty

    What are they meant to do? Grow 30 centimeters? Suddenly become big and ripped rather than thin and scrawny? Or maybe they should develop charming personalities overnight, even tho this is impossible if you are naturally shy, gauche and awkward

    Stop belittling men, and this real suffering, just because you’re a woman and have never and will never experience it, as incel status is almost universally a male experience

    You’re no better than a white person saying to a black person, “you should just act more white”

    Tsk. I thought better of you

    There are plenty of short, on the spectrum, weedy, bespectacled, spotty females about too. As Eddie Hitler from Bottom said, 'Don't worry about it Richie. There are millions of ugly women in the world. One of them's going to want to have sex with you sooner or later.'
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914
    Farooq said:

    I wonder if the "won't someone please think of the poor incels" argument can be repurposed to apply to poverty..

    It has. It’s called welfare. Benefits
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,712
    On Sunak, I do wonder whether his leadership pitch will fall apart under close scrutiny.

    The economy is in freefall. As CotE, he's presided over a high tax, low growth economy that is in the doldrums. It's simply not good enough to blame Covid/Ukraine etc. His economic policy has been largely reactive and short-term rather than strategic and long-term. And yet, he wants us to believe that he alone will dispense with the "fairy tales" of the last several years.

    His pitch seems to be "it was Boris that made me do it, so it's not my fault". I'm no Tory, but if I were I'd not be convinced. I think his performance as Chancellor will carry more weight than his private financial arrangements.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,056
    dixiedean said:

    Musing on what little I know about Sunak.
    One point. Is he a good campaigner?
    He wasn't senior enough to play much of a role last time.
    And his seat has never been competitive.
    How would he do in a debate? I've never heard him comment on much outwith the economy.

    He represented the party in a leader debate Boris did not want to go to, IIRC, and was considered to have done ok I think.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    Leon said:

    Where the FUCK do I say “anyone has a right to demand sex from someone else”

    Really? WHERE? Stop putting words in my mouth, you prat

    I’m saying this is a real social problem, and it has got majorly worse because of dating apps meaning women don’t give the bottom 50% of men (in terms of looks) even a chance of a conversation. How do we fix it? I dunno. But the stats on young people - especially men - going without sex, are truly alarming

    This does not mean an incel man has a right to sex from a woman who does not want to give it. Of course he doesn’t. It’s her body
    Legalise and regulate prostitution.

    Another problem solved. I should be PM.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,056
    Pulpstar said:

    Long odds outsider Jake Berry has pulled up according to Guido.

    Poor chap, didn't even get a single statement of support did he?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,639

    Only a hypocrite would take issue with being pedantic! Genuinely had it in my head as 2002. Marbles going...
    TBF it is counterintuitive to go on an SH tour right before a WC in the same place. I only remember the date distinctly because I was very into rugby at the time and watched both games with my Old Streetonians chums at a pub in Angel near my new flat. Which I bought in 2003…

  • Leon said:

    Don’t be infantile

    These men are incels because they are short, or on the spectrum, or weedy, bespectacled, spotty

    What are they meant to do? Grow 30 centimeters? Suddenly become big and ripped rather than thin and scrawny? Or maybe they should develop charming personalities overnight, even tho this is impossible if you are naturally shy, gauche and awkward

    Stop belittling men, and this real suffering, just because you’re a woman and have never and will never experience it, as incel status is almost universally a male experience

    You’re no better than a white person saying to a black person, “you should just act more white”

    Tsk. I thought better of you

    Oh bollocks!

    Men don't have a right to women, let alone the woman of their choice.

    Maybe a short, weedy, spotty man needs to end up with a short, chubby, spotty woman, or similar? If you're spending all your time watching porn and expecting a porn stars body on your date, then that's your problem not women's problem.

    Leonard: Should we talk to some of these women?

    Howard: It’s way too early in the night for that. See, first we let the lawyers and the jocks thin the herd, and then we go after the weak and the old and the lame.

    Leonard: That’s your system?

    Howard: That’s my system. Oh, and if you spot a chick with a Seeing Eye dog, she’s mine.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,644
    Sean_F said:

    And, we've reached the stage where ethnic minority Conservative politicians can be criticised on the same terms as their white colleagues.
    I think racism is more subtle than generally supposed. I agree we've reached the point where most people are really relaxed about someone they like having a different ethnicity. But it doesn't always stop them having a general aversion to the people of that ethnicity who they don't know.

    My father, a thoughtful man who was frank about his own weaknesses, admitted that he used to be prejudiced against Africans, because he instinctively assumed (without much reflection and without knowing any) that they were belligerent loudmouths like Idi Amin. Then he made friends with a colleague from Upper Volta, and in his mind he completely revised his assumptions and accepted that he needed to look at people as individuals.

    I'm not sure that most people with racist assumptions have made that change. They can still simultaneously think that Asian-born people are alien to them, while making an exception for someone like Rishi as "not being really Asian", by which they really mean "not like those blokes on the other side of town who make me feel uncomfortable".
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,262

    Is this right? I see quite a lot of ugly looking blokes who have managed to pull - including myself! Even plenty of dating apps focus more on personality than looks.
    Back in the day I never tried to pull girls who were much taller than me, but I've never had a particular problem and I'm not particularly good looking.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,898
    @Leon have you ever used dating apps or are you just peddling incel lines from dark corners of the internet ?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,105

    Linlithgow is on the train line going directly into Edinburgh and is almost picturesque. Falkirk is a bit further out on the same line and is..not picturesque. Some availability at the Court Residence which gets 'exceptional' rating on booking.com.

    https://tinyurl.com/4cwsck43

    Suddenly the choice becomes overwhelming!. Ideally I need 3 rooms for three nights preferably £150-200 a person a night. Is that possible at that time of the year in Edinburgh? Or a boutique type hotel nearby?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    The Daily Mail has a curious, new obsession.

    I mean, we are familiar with its mania on Megan & Harry, its Royal fixation, its interest in the doings of minor Zelebs, the puff-pieces for Farage, its unhealthy interest in boats that are crossing the Channel, and so on.

    But, I have noticed in Mail Online over the last few weeks a new and slightly peculiar obsession.

    Lurpak Spreadable.

    There are been innumerable articles in the Mail on the price of Lurpak Spreadable, on how supermarkets are having to transfer security tags from bottles of whisky to Lurpak Spreadable to prevent vast shoplifting gangs, voxpops from shoppers stunned by the soaring price of Lurpak Spreadable, how to make your own Lurpak Spreadable, how Aldi's Nordpak Spreadable compares.

    And using Google news, I see the Express, the Mirror and the Record are similarly obsessed, e.g.,

    https://tinyurl.com/3upcpchz
    https://tinyurl.com/527wtavh
    https://tinyurl.com/mu9mwna3

    Tory leadership hopefuls needing a bit of 'common people' cred take note!

    "Your Lurpak Spreadable will cost your more under Rishi, but I will ensure every natural-born Briton has a right to affordable, spreadable Lurpak"

    Buttering a Freddo now requires a credit score check
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,872

    The Daily Mail has a curious, new obsession.

    I mean, we are familiar with its mania on Megan & Harry, its Royal fixation, its interest in the doings of minor Zelebs, the puff-pieces for Farage, its unhealthy interest in boats that are crossing the Channel, and so on.

    But, I have noticed in Mail Online over the last few weeks a new and slightly peculiar obsession.

    Lurpak Spreadable.

    There are been innumerable articles in the Mail on the price of Lurpak Spreadable, on how supermarkets are having to transfer security tags from bottles of whisky to Lurpak Spreadable to prevent vast shoplifting gangs, voxpops from shoppers stunned by the soaring price of Lurpak Spreadable, how to make your own Lurpak Spreadable, how Aldi's Nordpak Spreadable compares.

    And using Google news, I see the Express, the Mirror and the Record are similarly obsessed, e.g.,

    https://tinyurl.com/3upcpchz
    https://tinyurl.com/527wtavh
    https://tinyurl.com/mu9mwna3

    Tory leadership hopefuls needing a bit of 'common people' cred take note!

    "Your Lurpak Spreadable will cost your more under Rishi, but I will ensure every natural-born Briton has a right to affordable, spreadable Lurpak"

    A few years ago, I was having a chat with a checkout lady at a local shop. She mentioned that the two things that were shoplifted most were baby milk powder and alcohol.

    I can understand someone shoplifting the latter, but baby milk powder?

    I also hope they don't combine the two...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,818

    The Daily Mail has a curious, new obsession.

    I mean, we are familiar with its mania on Megan & Harry, its Royal fixation, its interest in the doings of minor Zelebs, the puff-pieces for Farage, its unhealthy interest in boats that are crossing the Channel, and so on.

    But, I have noticed in Mail Online over the last few weeks a new and slightly peculiar obsession.

    Lurpak Spreadable.

    There are been innumerable articles in the Mail on the price of Lurpak Spreadable, on how supermarkets are having to transfer security tags from bottles of whisky to Lurpak Spreadable to prevent vast shoplifting gangs, voxpops from shoppers stunned by the soaring price of Lurpak Spreadable, how to make your own Lurpak Spreadable, how Aldi's Nordpak Spreadable compares.

    And using Google news, I see the Express, the Mirror and the Record are similarly obsessed, e.g.,

    https://tinyurl.com/3upcpchz
    https://tinyurl.com/527wtavh
    https://tinyurl.com/mu9mwna3

    Tory leadership hopefuls needing a bit of 'common people' cred take note!

    "Your Lurpak Spreadable will cost your more under Rishi, but I will ensure every natural-born Briton has a right to affordable, spreadable Lurpak"

    Lurpak is the most effective word for tripping up Scousers putting on a posh accent.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831
    Cyclefree said:

    A radical idea this. But men could try making themselves attractive to women.
    The internet suggests that usually means learning to do magic tricks?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    Farooq said:

    I'd have words with the people holding you down in your chair and forcing you to read. It's just not on.
    The modern equivalent of what happened to Alex the droog.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914

    Is this right? I see quite a lot of ugly looking blokes who have managed to pull - including myself! Even plenty of dating apps focus more on personality than looks.
    it is right. There are lots of researchers and journalists looking at this

    https://unherd.com/2020/02/why-incels-are-the-losers-in-the-age-of-tinder/
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,529
    edited July 2022

    On what planet would he have a single MP left supporting him if he tried to reverse ferret?
    I mean i just don't get the idea. He has announced his departure in front of Downing Street, he has told the Queen, a leadership election is underway, his cabinet are there solely because he has agreed to go.

    'Hes planning to stay!' Is a worse and less pausible twist than season 8 of Game of Thrones
    You believe him, Woollie? He's never pulled the wool, dyed or otherwise, over your eyes?

    He doesn't give a f*ck about the mayhem he causes. He'll be stopped only if those in a position to restrain him do so. The CP's record on this is not good. Perhaps others can constrain him but personally I won't consider he has gone until he's out of Downing street and Rentokil have fumigated the place.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    Sean_F said:

    On the subject of the Red Wall, it's a mistake to think of such seats as desperately poor. And, it's important too, to distinguish between those seats that are historic marginal constituencies, like Darlington, the Boltons and the Burys, and those that have been trending Conservative for a long time (Stoke, South Yorkshire, parts of Durham).

    Labour has every chance of winning back the marginals, but a much less good chance of winning back those places that are heading in the same direction as seats like NW Leicestershire, Burton, Tamworth, historically marginal, but now solidly Conservative.

    WRT the Conservatives "natural supporters", centre-right parties across the world are finding their support comes increasingly from lower middle class and working class homeowners, and decreasingly from the very well off. Of course, they'll still get a lot of support from the latter, but they shouldn't expect to regain the support they had one or two generations ago. Times change. All that matters is winning 326 seats. It doesn't matter which seats those are.

    Really thoughtful post. Thank you.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,199
    Roger said:

    I thought MR might be a creation of Jack's. He's good at that sort of thing...
    Wow, I didn't know that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,056
    edited July 2022

    I think racism is more subtle than generally supposed. I agree we've reached the point where most people are really relaxed about someone they like having a different ethnicity. But it doesn't always stop them having a general aversion to the people of that ethnicity who they don't know.

    My father, a thoughtful man who was frank about his own weaknesses, admitted that he used to be prejudiced against Africans, because he instinctively assumed (without much reflection and without knowing any) that they were belligerent loudmouths like Idi Amin. Then he made friends with a colleague from Upper Volta, and in his mind he completely revised his assumptions and accepted that he needed to look at people as individuals.

    I'm not sure that most people with racist assumptions have made that change. They can still simultaneously think that Asian-born people are alien to them, while making an exception for someone like Rishi as "not being really Asian", by which they really mean "not like those blokes on the other side of town who make me feel uncomfortable".
    They key, though, is that it is near universally recognised that racism is bad (even genuine racists know this, and must disguise it), which is actually a change. So prejudices that exist may at least be less pronounced, more fluid in making the exceptions you are talking about, and, one hopes, eventually of negligent impact in society (rather than marginalised impact).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914

    @Leon have you ever used dating apps or are you just peddling incel lines from dark corners of the internet ?

    Yes, I’ve used dating apps. But this really doesn’t affect me, I’m far too old. It’s the young who endure this unbalancing of the dating market
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    edited July 2022
    dixiedean said:

    Lurpak is the most effective word for tripping up Scousers putting on a posh accent.
    "Heaow dao I reamove thes confoinded secrity tag?"

    Edit: not specific to Merseyside tbf.

    https://www.timeout.com/london/news/oh-no-asda-has-started-security-tagging-butter-and-dairy-070622
  • Simon_PeachSimon_Peach Posts: 424
    Apologies if this has been discussed… five days ago, a GB News commentator declared on air that Starmer had taken out an injunction to suppress the news that he had received a FPN… the clip has since been shared on Twitter with at least one Tory activist urging that it be retweeted widely… should this be tolerated of a broadcaster in this country?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,818
    edited July 2022

    A few years ago, I was having a chat with a checkout lady at a local shop. She mentioned that the two things that were shoplifted most were baby milk powder and alcohol.

    I can understand someone shoplifting the latter, but baby milk powder?

    I also hope they don't combine the two...
    Why the surprise? If you have a baby and no money it's the only alternative.
    As someone who had a kid who couldn't breast feed, it is pricy too.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,546
    edited July 2022
    Cyclefree said:

    No means No.

    I will read the essay with interest.
    @Cyclefree (and others) I want to ask a question that could easily come across as a dig - I promise it isn't (but this is one of those debates that gets heated easily and things get misconstrued so I wanted to use this preface).

    I absolutely agree that no means no. I absolutely agree that anyone's personal sexual preferences should be their own.

    What do you make of the argument that if, say, someone could never, ever be attracted to a person of a significantly different skin colour, we might affirm their personal choice and yet still suggest that they harboured a societal prejudice? And that a similar prejudice is on display for someone (whatever their sexual orientation) that would not ever consider having sex with a trans person?

    Is
    (a) the idea this is prejudiced wrong?
    (b) correct, but not applicable to the case of trans people because of the physical difference in genitalia?
    (c) something else going on?

    For clarity, the whole debate about trans people's status is an area in which I am really not sure about my own views yet, hence the question. It isn't at all loaded.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613

    Apologies if this has been discussed… five days ago, a GB News commentator declared on air that Starmer had taken out an injunction to suppress the news that he had received a FPN… the clip has since been shared on Twitter with at least one Tory activist urging that it be retweeted widely… should this be tolerated of a broadcaster in this country?

    Slight problem, he didn't get one, so nothing to suppress ...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,973
    Farooq said:

    Hmmm, I see what you mean but it never crossed my mind to think of them that way.
    They're just too well executed to be anything other than magnificent. I don't think I'll ever get bored of them.
    Public statuary is a tricky thing, ferinstance I think the Angel of the North is kitsch, and weirdly proportioned to boot.

    I do like a bit of equestrian statuary though; the Bannockburn Robert the Bruce does verge a teeny bit on the fashy nationalism embodied in the worst imaginings of Unionists and Daily Mail columnists, but I like it cos it's got a horsey (and is based on a very good, authenticated story).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,056
    Sean_F said:

    On the subject of the Red Wall, it's a mistake to think of such seats as desperately poor. And, it's important too, to distinguish between those seats that are historic marginal constituencies, like Darlington, the Boltons and the Burys, and those that have been trending Conservative for a long time (Stoke, South Yorkshire, parts of Durham).

    Labour has every chance of winning back the marginals, but a much less good chance of winning back those places that are heading in the same direction as seats like NW Leicestershire, Burton, Tamworth, historically marginal, but now solidly Conservative.

    I think this is an important point that the original Red Wall chap himself made I think, but gets lost in the general use to simply mean any former Labour seat in the north.

    It's another reason while Boris made the breakthrough, the Tories could hold onto quite a few seats in the area even with someone else. No guarantee, but it was not simply that they liked him and suddenly changed direction.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,507

    A few years ago, I was having a chat with a checkout lady at a local shop. She mentioned that the two things that were shoplifted most were baby milk powder and alcohol.

    I can understand someone shoplifting the latter, but baby milk powder?

    I also hope they don't combine the two...
    If you’ve run out of cash, the baby can’t wait till you next get paid.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,872
    dixiedean said:

    Why the surprise? If you have a baby and no money it's the only alternative.
    As someone who had a kid who couldn't breast feed, it is pricy too.
    Yeah, I understand the cost (we used it as well, as Mrs J went back to work quickly and I cannot exactly breast-feed...) But a tub lasts a long time, and I'd expect there to be other. more valuable, things to shoplift. Although I guess cigarettes are harder now they're behind the sliding doors.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,755
    edited July 2022

    Is this right? I see quite a lot of ugly looking blokes who have managed to pull - including myself! Even plenty of dating apps focus more on personality than looks.
    Not being poor helps too.
  • I think Andrea might have been giving someone out, it's clearly missing middle..


  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,929

    @Leon have you ever used dating apps or are you just peddling incel lines from dark corners of the internet ?

    Don't know about Leon but an erstwhile poster on PB wrote a best-selling book about it:

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Millions-Women-are-Waiting-Meet-ebook/dp/B0077RMQ1K/ref=sr_1_1?crid=38FRU3C5H17EM&keywords=millions+of+women+are+waiting+to+meet+you&qid=1657362302&sprefix=millions+of+women+are+waiting+to+meet+you,aps,57&sr=8-1
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,639

    A few years ago, I was having a chat with a checkout lady at a local shop. She mentioned that the two things that were shoplifted most were baby milk powder and alcohol.

    I can understand someone shoplifting the latter, but baby milk powder?

    I also hope they don't combine the two...
    Bloke in front of me in the Sainsbury’s checkout queue had his card declined for his groceries a few days ago. He had to leave the whole trolley. It was awful to watch. Half of me wanted to offer to pay. Felt shit letting my own comparatively trivial issues get me down.

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    You believe him, Woollie? He's never pulled the wool, dyed or otherwise, over your eyes?

    He doesn't give a f*ck about the mayhem he causes. He'll be stopped only if those in a position to restrain him do so. The CP's record on this is not good. Perhaps others can constrain him but personally I won't consider he has gone until he's out of Downing street and Rentokil have fumigated the place.
    Oh hes a liar, no doubt, but on this, yes i do. On the most basic, practical level there is no mechanism by which he could cling on and it would be utterly pointless and ruinous to try. Hed at most buy himself 48 to 72 hours. To do what?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724

    Buttering a Freddo now requires a credit score check
    We don’t buy them now. We rent them for a few days if someone is coming round, so they can see it on the kitchen counter and think we’re doing well.


  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    I haven't see this before but it's an absolutely brilliant piece by Jeremy Vine on Boris Johnson. I think deep down we all knew this to be the case.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/my-boris-johnson-story

    Boris' great skill was in being able to construct an image of a shambling buffoon. Unfortunately he wasn't able to construct anything else.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,872
    Phil said:

    If you’ve run out of cash, the baby can’t wait till you next get paid.
    Oh, you're almost certainly right. This is probably a case where thankfully having a little money means we did not need to consider the overall cost of the stuff.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,639

    Don't know about Leon but an erstwhile poster on PB wrote a best-selling book about it:

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Millions-Women-are-Waiting-Meet-ebook/dp/B0077RMQ1K/ref=sr_1_1?crid=38FRU3C5H17EM&keywords=millions+of+women+are+waiting+to+meet+you&qid=1657362302&sprefix=millions+of+women+are+waiting+to+meet+you,aps,57&sr=8-1
    Have you read some of the Goodreads reviews of that? Comedy gold

  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,105

    Linlithgow is on the train line going directly into Edinburgh and is almost picturesque. Falkirk is a bit further out on the same line and is..not picturesque. Some availability at the Court Residence which gets 'exceptional' rating on booking.com.

    https://tinyurl.com/4cwsck43

    Linlithglow looks perfect but they don't have anywhere for my dates but I'll check out other places round there. Thanks very much and to Farooq
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724

    Apologies if this has been discussed… five days ago, a GB News commentator declared on air that Starmer had taken out an injunction to suppress the news that he had received a FPN… the clip has since been shared on Twitter with at least one Tory activist urging that it be retweeted widely… should this be tolerated of a broadcaster in this country?

    No: and Starmer should take them to the cleaners.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,537

    The Daily Mail has a curious, new obsession.

    I mean, we are familiar with its mania on Megan & Harry, its Royal fixation, its interest in the doings of minor Zelebs, the puff-pieces for Farage, its unhealthy interest in boats that are crossing the Channel, and so on.

    But, I have noticed in Mail Online over the last few weeks a new and slightly peculiar obsession.

    Lurpak Spreadable.

    There are been innumerable articles in the Mail on the price of Lurpak Spreadable, on how supermarkets are having to transfer security tags from bottles of whisky to Lurpak Spreadable to prevent vast shoplifting gangs, voxpops from shoppers stunned by the soaring price of Lurpak Spreadable, how to make your own Lurpak Spreadable, how Aldi's Nordpak Spreadable compares.

    And using Google news, I see the Express, the Mirror and the Record are similarly obsessed, e.g.,

    https://tinyurl.com/3upcpchz
    https://tinyurl.com/527wtavh
    https://tinyurl.com/mu9mwna3

    Tory leadership hopefuls needing a bit of 'common people' cred take note!

    "Your Lurpak Spreadable will cost your more under Rishi, but I will ensure every natural-born Briton has a right to affordable, spreadable Lurpak"

    Even as a write I can hear my neighbour's dairy herd baying for relief. Do we really have to import the stuff from Denmark?
This discussion has been closed.