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The big fact about the next election – politicalbetting.com

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  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,068
    What on earth is “Aspire”?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 13,722
    Andy_JS said:

    Just seen that Diane Abbott has called for Keir Starmer to consider his position if the police issue him with a fine. Revenge of the Corbynistas?

    Bless. If Starmer goes, True Socialists will take over again? They really think the rest of the party will give them the way through they found last time?

    Moments like this (and I assume that some of the leaks are from disgruntled Corbynistas) make it clear that Mr Thicky was the bright one in that gang.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,650
    Leon said:

    Aspire shows one terrifying truth for Labour. A core constituent of their 'reliable' vote base defects en masse when given something to vote for. Could destroy them in London long term.

    Sunny Handal did an excellent thread on this. There are ominous signs for Labour amidst the London celebrations. Voting for them by en bloc ethnic minorities is coming to an end


    “Some quick thoughts on Labour getting thrashed in Tower Hamlets, Harrow and Croydon.

    These parts of London have one thing in common - large proportion of ethnic minorities.

    And they rebelled against Labour”

    https://twitter.com/sunny_hundal/status/1522910473011740672?s=21&t=vcK9-hydFRDbGJHNdWBKeQ
    Labour has a habit of losing from unassailable strength - Scotland, Blaenau Gwent, Tower Hamlets, Bethnal Green, The Red Wall.
    They are very easy to turn your back on and have been since the post Wilson/Callaghan era
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    franklyn said:

    Can I please ask Scottish members of the PB readership how the feel Nicola's congratulatory message to Sinn Fein will go down in Protestant quarters of the West of Scotland. I know that in democratic politics we always congratulate winners, but she could easily have sent a private message. Is she losing her normally skilful touch?

    Yawn.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,650
    edited May 2022

    What on earth is “Aspire”?

    Rahmans party in Tower Hamlets
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,680
    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally I know Sinn Fein came top, but am I the only one thinking the big winners in NI are the Alliance?

    No you aren't. It's going to end up SF 27, DUP 25, sensible moderates 34. Assorted others 4.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,217
    edited May 2022

    Andy_JS said:

    Just seen that Diane Abbott has called for Keir Starmer to consider his position if the police issue him with a fine. Revenge of the Corbynistas?

    Bless. If Starmer goes, True Socialists will take over again? They really think the rest of the party will give them the way through they found last time?

    Moments like this (and I assume that some of the leaks are from disgruntled Corbynistas) make it clear that Mr Thicky was the bright one in that gang.
    There are two enormously intelligent Corbynistas. John Trickett and John McDonnell.

    The rest are, as Janan Ganesh said in an admirably succinct summary, thick as pigshit. This does not stop them thinking of themselves as very much brighter than us mere mortals.

    This is however not confined to them. Look at Jacob Rees-Mogg.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,782

    nico679 said:

    I think a big mistake Starmer made was calling for resignations because of an investigation rather than at least waiting to the end of that .

    The Tories will be enjoying this but ironically they don’t want Starmer to resign . We all know Johnson is utterly shameless and his right wing paper friends will do their best to spin things but if Starmer goes the first thing most of the public will ask is why is Johnson still there .

    What happens if he gets more FPNs , what if the Sue Gray report is damning .

    Make the point that Johnson has broken the laws he created and should resign because he lied to parliament about doing to. I always said lying to parliament was the biggie.

    If we come out of this with Johnson still as PM and Starmer gone as the Met slap out a stack of FPNs and the Grey report details Johnson partying at the "I sacked Cummings" event I will likely wee myself laughing.
    Sorry that's rubbish - most ordinary people dont give a chit he lied to parliament , its that he made laws for them he could not keep himself.So he should go and Starmer should go given he voted for them as well.Maybe in future it will mean politicians think twice about imposing stupid laws on people because its the "right thing to do"

    Bang on. And recall how keen Sir Kir Royale Starmer was on EVEN MORE, STRICTER LOCKDOWNS than Boris. Presumably this was fine because they didn’t apply to him. Thirty people back to the office for a big old piss up and a huge curry, that’s fine. Woe betide the pensioners sitting on the same bench having a furtive coffee

    Frankly, they can all fuck off, all of them. And this applies to Boris as well. They enforced laws on us which have piled up mental anguish for a decade. And then ignored them. C*nts.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 8,615
    biggles said:

    Either way, Labour is taking a hit now on the “I wanted to have a curry with my mates after work too but I held back” line of reasoning. I find this one more offensive than some (but not all) of the Number 10 stuff for exactly that reason. I won’t be alone.

    There is a difference here though: when the curry happened people could go out for a beer with their mates. It wasn’t lockdown, but there were social distancing and outdoor dining rules in place.

    I do think it shows though that if you’re going to play the moral card you have to be morally spotless.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    dixiedean said:

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally I know Sinn Fein came top, but am I the only one thinking the big winners in NI are the Alliance?

    No you aren't. It's going to end up SF 27, DUP 25, sensible moderates 34. Assorted others 4.
    That’s a FUDHY trick.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,364
    edited May 2022
    TimS said:

    SKS should give a press conference tomorrow, Angela by his side, promising that they will resign as leader and deputy leader if the police conclude rules were broken, because “it’s the right and proper thing to do”.

    Would be the ultimate act of kamikaze.

    I am assuming/hoping Wes hasn’t got any lockdown breaches in his history.

    I think at this point your idea is good and would be something of a curveball that the Tories wouldn’t expect . It also puts a lot of pressure on Durham police .

    Where as the Met police know Johnson is a shameless unprincipled liar and wouldn’t resign over a FPN , Durham police will surely realize that their actions could remove the opposition leader .
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 26,717
    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just seen that Diane Abbott has called for Keir Starmer to consider his position if the police issue him with a fine. Revenge of the Corbynistas?

    TBF, that is merely a statement of the obvious. He will have to.

    And would have to go. As the serial liar and law breaker in Downing Street has to go.
    There seems to be some glee from Tories over the latest developments - have they thought this through?

    Let's assume Starmer and Rayner both resign after a currygate fine. "that clears Johnson" seems to be the narrative. And if there are no further FPNs for Johnson then perhaps that might have worked

    But how does BJ hang on having been fined for the BYOB party and the flat party and the various other ones? Starmer had an excuse which will have failed - a campaign event. Supposedly BJ was in the flat singing Kareoke because he was conducting and interview. That going to stick?

    If Starmer does go, Johnson will have to go. Because Tories doing the media rounds to justify why Johnson hasn't gone will fall apart spectacularly quickly. This is expenses gate all over again.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,217
    dixiedean said:

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally I know Sinn Fein came top, but am I the only one thinking the big winners in NI are the Alliance?

    No you aren't. It's going to end up SF 27, DUP 25, sensible moderates 34. Assorted others 4.
    If the Alliance could build on this and come second or top...that would be the best imaginable news for Northern Ireland, whichever country it's in.

    Long hard road for that to happen though.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,680
    Struggling to keep up with this.
    Are Labour a Party confined to London?
    Or finished in London?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,505

    franklyn said:

    Can I please ask Scottish members of the PB readership how the feel Nicola's congratulatory message to Sinn Fein will go down in Protestant quarters of the West of Scotland. I know that in democratic politics we always congratulate winners, but she could easily have sent a private message. Is she losing her normally skilful touch?

    Yawn.
    She's lost the Orange Order and Union Bears for sure.

    This guy won't be too happy either.



  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,003
    For anyone wanting a little laugh:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VTjLQcY37FQ

    Crazy, crazy Putin...

    Though not as good as this spoof:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nA3O80q1D2Q
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 54,663

    nico679 said:

    I think a big mistake Starmer made was calling for resignations because of an investigation rather than at least waiting to the end of that .

    The Tories will be enjoying this but ironically they don’t want Starmer to resign . We all know Johnson is utterly shameless and his right wing paper friends will do their best to spin things but if Starmer goes the first thing most of the public will ask is why is Johnson still there .

    What happens if he gets more FPNs , what if the Sue Gray report is damning .

    Make the point that Johnson has broken the laws he created and should resign because he lied to parliament about doing to. I always said lying to parliament was the biggie.

    If we come out of this with Johnson still as PM and Starmer gone as the Met slap out a stack of FPNs and the Grey report details Johnson partying at the "I sacked Cummings" event I will likely wee myself laughing.
    Sorry that's rubbish - most ordinary people dont give a chit he lied to parliament , its that he made laws for them he could not keep himself.So he should go and Starmer should go given he voted for them as well.Maybe in future it will mean politicians think twice about imposing stupid laws on people because its the "right thing to do"
    I'm the only person not surprised by it but then I never took the Covid laws literally myself.

    I ignored the pettifogging interpretations that I found irrational or silly, and met my parents several times outside for walks and chats.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,270
    TimS said:

    biggles said:

    Either way, Labour is taking a hit now on the “I wanted to have a curry with my mates after work too but I held back” line of reasoning. I find this one more offensive than some (but not all) of the Number 10 stuff for exactly that reason. I won’t be alone.

    There is a difference here though: when the curry happened people could go out for a beer with their mates. It wasn’t lockdown, but there were social distancing and outdoor dining rules in place.

    I do think it shows though that if you’re going to play the moral card you have to be morally spotless.
    I was not aware of that. He better hope he can get that message out….
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,602
    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally I know Sinn Fein came top, but am I the only one thinking the big winners in NI are the Alliance?

    Yes, absolutely superb. APNI has confirmed its status as the third party in Northern Ireland politics and has once again outpolled both the UUP and SDLP and significantly cut the gap to the DUP from more than 14 points in 2019 to fewer than 8 now.

    Seats like Belfast East come into play now and even Lagan Valley, East Antrim and Strangford don't look as secure for the DUP as before and as we've said every seat taken off the DUP is a potential loss for a minority Conservative-DUP Government.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,217

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just seen that Diane Abbott has called for Keir Starmer to consider his position if the police issue him with a fine. Revenge of the Corbynistas?

    TBF, that is merely a statement of the obvious. He will have to.

    And would have to go. As the serial liar and law breaker in Downing Street has to go.
    There seems to be some glee from Tories over the latest developments - have they thought this through?

    Let's assume Starmer and Rayner both resign after a currygate fine. "that clears Johnson" seems to be the narrative. And if there are no further FPNs for Johnson then perhaps that might have worked

    But how does BJ hang on having been fined for the BYOB party and the flat party and the various other ones? Starmer had an excuse which will have failed - a campaign event. Supposedly BJ was in the flat singing Kareoke because he was conducting and interview. That going to stick?

    If Starmer does go, Johnson will have to go. Because Tories doing the media rounds to justify why Johnson hasn't gone will fall apart spectacularly quickly. This is expenses gate all over again.
    If Keir Starmer takes Johnson with him in resigning he will deserve a dukedom and the title of Patriot in Chief forever.

    Even if he does become the first Leader of the Opposition to be convicted of a crime...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,525
    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just seen that Diane Abbott has called for Keir Starmer to consider his position if the police issue him with a fine. Revenge of the Corbynistas?

    Bless. If Starmer goes, True Socialists will take over again? They really think the rest of the party will give them the way through they found last time?

    Moments like this (and I assume that some of the leaks are from disgruntled Corbynistas) make it clear that Mr Thicky was the bright one in that gang.
    There are two enormously intelligent Corbynistas. John Trickett and John McDonnell.

    The rest are, as Janan Ganesh said in an admirably succinct summary, thick as pigshit. This does not stop them thinking of themselves as very much brighter than us mere mortals.

    This is however not confined to them. Look at Jacob Rees-Mogg.
    JRM is just a lightweight - pay him no mind!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,558
    dixiedean said:

    Struggling to keep up with this.
    Are Labour a Party confined to London?
    Or finished in London?

    The former earlier today

    Both now
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,650
    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    I think a big mistake Starmer made was calling for resignations because of an investigation rather than at least waiting to the end of that .

    The Tories will be enjoying this but ironically they don’t want Starmer to resign . We all know Johnson is utterly shameless and his right wing paper friends will do their best to spin things but if Starmer goes the first thing most of the public will ask is why is Johnson still there .

    What happens if he gets more FPNs , what if the Sue Gray report is damning .

    Make the point that Johnson has broken the laws he created and should resign because he lied to parliament about doing to. I always said lying to parliament was the biggie.

    If we come out of this with Johnson still as PM and Starmer gone as the Met slap out a stack of FPNs and the Grey report details Johnson partying at the "I sacked Cummings" event I will likely wee myself laughing.
    Sorry that's rubbish - most ordinary people dont give a chit he lied to parliament , its that he made laws for them he could not keep himself.So he should go and Starmer should go given he voted for them as well.Maybe in future it will mean politicians think twice about imposing stupid laws on people because its the "right thing to do"

    Bang on. And recall how keen Sir Kir Royale Starmer was on EVEN MORE, STRICTER LOCKDOWNS than Boris. Presumably this was fine because they didn’t apply to him. Thirty people back to the office for a big old piss up and a huge curry, that’s fine. Woe betide the pensioners sitting on the same bench having a furtive coffee

    Frankly, they can all fuck off, all of them. And this applies to Boris as well. They enforced laws on us which have piled up mental anguish for a decade. And then ignored them. C*nts.
    Precisely. I lost my mum to cancer during covid. She spent her last months frightened to go anywhere because of their messaging and laws and was seen off by just a very few family with no permission to have a wake. I despise them all.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,609

    Adam Wagner
    @AdamWagner1
    ·
    1h
    Just seen this - don't see how it being pre-planned makes a difference to original reason, they were feeding staff & I assume volunteers.The fact it was pre-arranged with social distancing guidelines makes it more likely to be reasonably necessary not less

    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1522978254142980096

    ===

    This is gonna end in court isn't it?

    To be honest, not sure why Johnson and Sunak didn't go to court
    Sunak might have done so and might have won. Boris might have won the court case over that specific fine, but I'm sure there's more to come. It would anyway be a ludicrous state of affairs to have the PM and the Chancellor conducting court cases against the state (which is HMQ I guess?)

    The partys aren't the issue though. Nobody thinks that any of the alleged were good partys after all. The principal issue in all of this is whether the PM misled the Commons. In my view it's clear that he did.

    There is a slight secondary issue about hypocriscy from Starmer, but he's done little wrong and a decent apology will serve.

  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Rules in place at time of Keir Starmer evening meal.

    1.—(1) No person may participate in a gathering in the Step 1 area which—
    (a)consists of two or more people, and
    (b)takes place indoors.
    (2) Sub-paragraph (1) does not apply if any of the exceptions set out in paragraph 4 or 5 apply.
    and then this in paragraph 4:
    (6) Exception 3 is that the gathering is reasonably necessary—
    (a)for work purposes or for the provision of voluntary or charitable services;

    Thoughts?

    On the face of it, not reasonably necessary for work. They could have gone back to their hotel and each eaten in their room.
  • https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1523010993361928193

    He said they were working, had dinner and went back to work. The question isn't whether they were working at every moment, it's whether the gathering was reasonably necessary for work and/or volunteering.

    Adam seems to think Starmer is home and dry - guess we will see
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 13,722
    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just seen that Diane Abbott has called for Keir Starmer to consider his position if the police issue him with a fine. Revenge of the Corbynistas?

    Bless. If Starmer goes, True Socialists will take over again? They really think the rest of the party will give them the way through they found last time?

    Moments like this (and I assume that some of the leaks are from disgruntled Corbynistas) make it clear that Mr Thicky was the bright one in that gang.
    There are two enormously intelligent Corbynistas. John Trickett and John McDonnell.

    The rest are, as Janan Ganesh said in an admirably succinct summary, thick as pigshit. This does not stop them thinking of themselves as very much brighter than us mere mortals.

    This is however not confined to them. Look at Jacob Rees-Mogg.
    The saving grace of the Momentum crew is that they were more than a bit naive and stupid, and they didn't properly use the opportunity to remake the whole Labour party in their image.

    The damage Johnson, JRM et al have done to the centre right is going to be way harder to unpick, because they have been cleverer about power.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,217
    edited May 2022
    Deleted, on reflection.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,270

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just seen that Diane Abbott has called for Keir Starmer to consider his position if the police issue him with a fine. Revenge of the Corbynistas?

    Bless. If Starmer goes, True Socialists will take over again? They really think the rest of the party will give them the way through they found last time?

    Moments like this (and I assume that some of the leaks are from disgruntled Corbynistas) make it clear that Mr Thicky was the bright one in that gang.
    There are two enormously intelligent Corbynistas. John Trickett and John McDonnell.

    The rest are, as Janan Ganesh said in an admirably succinct summary, thick as pigshit. This does not stop them thinking of themselves as very much brighter than us mere mortals.

    This is however not confined to them. Look at Jacob Rees-Mogg.
    JRM is just a lightweight - pay him no mind!
    A lightweight? Was there for a few beers and sent home in a taxi?….
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,003

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just seen that Diane Abbott has called for Keir Starmer to consider his position if the police issue him with a fine. Revenge of the Corbynistas?

    TBF, that is merely a statement of the obvious. He will have to.

    And would have to go. As the serial liar and law breaker in Downing Street has to go.
    There seems to be some glee from Tories over the latest developments - have they thought this through?

    Let's assume Starmer and Rayner both resign after a currygate fine. "that clears Johnson" seems to be the narrative. And if there are no further FPNs for Johnson then perhaps that might have worked

    But how does BJ hang on having been fined for the BYOB party and the flat party and the various other ones? Starmer had an excuse which will have failed - a campaign event. Supposedly BJ was in the flat singing Kareoke because he was conducting and interview. That going to stick?

    If Starmer does go, Johnson will have to go. Because Tories doing the media rounds to justify why Johnson hasn't gone will fall apart spectacularly quickly. This is expenses gate all over again.
    I am not a Tory, and I take a little glee in this given I've never thought what happened at No. 10 deserved any penalty - the law was a stupid stick when the carrot would probably have worked.

    I also take a little glee in the way so many people - including Starmer - jumped on Johnson and co. over this, and are now either in denial or backpedalling rapidly.

    I will not lose a second's sleep if Johnson resigns because of this. I've never voted for him. I was minded to vote for Labour under Starmer - but it seems his USP of dull competence is actually a veneer of the purest brown.

    Why didn't he have the intelligence to see this coming, either at the time of the event itself, or when he called for Johnson to resign because of the investigation? And why couldn't they get their story straight when the potential issue first became public?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,747
    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    kjh said:

    Alistair said:

    I see PB favourite Paul Joseph Watson has been caught airing some views that were all the rage in early 1940s Germany.

    What has he said? I used to follow him, but don't now. He is always good for a laugh provided you are not easily converted by cults (I did spell that correctly). I got introduced to him by Plato.
    He was caught saying he'd like to wipe Jews off the planet.

    His outlook is similar to that of his near namesake, Paul Joseph Goebbels.
    Ah the horse shoe of politics, where the far left and far right are much closer to each other, than to more mainstream and centrist viewpoints.
    I understand why people like this view, but it has a troubling lack of traction in reality.
    When I put my ideological hat on, I see the horseshoe very clearly. I'm a centrist and I see overlaps between people on the extremes in both directions, but when you study history you get a very different picture. To dive straight into the the headline-grabbing example, Fascism and Communism, you see two ideologies that were bitterly and violently in opposition.
    I know some people like to fall back on "sibling rivalry" as an explanation for why they went around murdering each other and ended up in a war of annihilation, but that doesn't stack up. To take the views of the proponents of both at face value is to see a an extremely bitter enmity on the most fundamental level. They very thing that makes humans more than just an animal, the way we organise ourselves into groups with a common agenda, are completely different under both ideologies. The unrelenting horizontality of Communism, where even the concept of private property is sacrificed under the guise of freeing the worker from exploitative relations of production. And with fascism, the unyielding verticality. The racial tribe is a unit that must work under the direction of a quasi-religious leader, the total submission of the individual to that authority, the preservation of some mythical purity.
    To put it another way, the denial of difference versus the paranoid fear of those who are different.

    These are fundamentally different world views.

    Part of this is muddied by the practice of authoritarianism. It's easy to see the similarity when you only think of the repressive, murderous nature of governments that are riddled with these toxic ideologies. The horrifying violence that came with both is in some ways intrinsic to them because both Communism and Fascism are unnatural and they need violence to preserve themselves. But the key point here is that authoritarianism is much wider than that again. Non-Communist non-Fascist regimes have also been that way. Indeed, probably a majority of states across the sweep of human history have been authoritarian in nature, the horror only mitigated by the level of technological advancement limiting how far and fast a psychopathic leader can stamp his authority on a people.

    Democracy is right because it is fundamentally more peaceful. Power is vested in the people and the government serves at their pleasure. Communism and Fascism occupy the space outside that circle, but so does everything else. Is there really a case for saying they are similar in many other ways? I don't see it. The horseshoe doesn't work as a model once you have taken account of democracy and non-democracy. Within that non-democratic space are some pretty wild creatures, and Communism and Fascism are two big, nasty, and quite separate beasts, not the near neighbours some people want to imagine them to be.
    Communists and fascists hate each other, of course, but they hate more moderate members of their own "side" far more. On a number of issues, you'll find a kind of Red/Brown alliance, at least online. Whereas, overall, 80% of left wing voters supported Macron to 20% in round 2, those who self-identified as far left divided almost evenly between the two.
    This is where the "horseshoe" theory DOES have some explanatory value. In that, when out of power extremists on either side can sometimes see some affinity with each other. There's some sense in aligning yourself with other extremists to topple the centre and then hope your faction can win out against the other nutters in the final.
    The trouble is, as per your figures, the extremes break much more heavily towards the centre. That it, for every 1 horseshoe-er, there are 4 people who will take the centrist instead.

    So it's fairer to modify my original take from "horseshoe = nah" to "horseshoe = minority"

    And to reiterate in reply to kle4, the mere fact that Communist and Fascist governments have used violent authoritarianism as a tool is important but slightly less relevant than you think because MOST governments across history have done that. We are in a blessed minority of relative peace.
    The fact that Communist and Fascist governments have managed to dispose of so many of each other's soldiers and innocent civilians is in part a function of technological advancement. We can efficiently kill lots of people. You can bet the Norman Conquest would have looked a lot more like 20th Century warfare if only they had 20th Century weapons. But do either the Communists or the Fascists claim William the Bastard as one of them? I doubt it.
    You'd be surprised. If anything, warfare was even more violent, when conducted with edged and pointed weapons, and when commanders used starvation as a weapon of war, than it is today.

    The Harrying of the North was absolutely brutal by any measure.
    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    kjh said:

    Alistair said:

    I see PB favourite Paul Joseph Watson has been caught airing some views that were all the rage in early 1940s Germany.

    What has he said? I used to follow him, but don't now. He is always good for a laugh provided you are not easily converted by cults (I did spell that correctly). I got introduced to him by Plato.
    He was caught saying he'd like to wipe Jews off the planet.

    His outlook is similar to that of his near namesake, Paul Joseph Goebbels.
    Ah the horse shoe of politics, where the far left and far right are much closer to each other, than to more mainstream and centrist viewpoints.
    I understand why people like this view, but it has a troubling lack of traction in reality.
    When I put my ideological hat on, I see the horseshoe very clearly. I'm a centrist and I see overlaps between people on the extremes in both directions, but when you study history you get a very different picture. To dive straight into the the headline-grabbing example, Fascism and Communism, you see two ideologies that were bitterly and violently in opposition.
    I know some people like to fall back on "sibling rivalry" as an explanation for why they went around murdering each other and ended up in a war of annihilation, but that doesn't stack up. To take the views of the proponents of both at face value is to see a an extremely bitter enmity on the most fundamental level. They very thing that makes humans more than just an animal, the way we organise ourselves into groups with a common agenda, are completely different under both ideologies. The unrelenting horizontality of Communism, where even the concept of private property is sacrificed under the guise of freeing the worker from exploitative relations of production. And with fascism, the unyielding verticality. The racial tribe is a unit that must work under the direction of a quasi-religious leader, the total submission of the individual to that authority, the preservation of some mythical purity.
    To put it another way, the denial of difference versus the paranoid fear of those who are different.

    These are fundamentally different world views.

    Part of this is muddied by the practice of authoritarianism. It's easy to see the similarity when you only think of the repressive, murderous nature of governments that are riddled with these toxic ideologies. The horrifying violence that came with both is in some ways intrinsic to them because both Communism and Fascism are unnatural and they need violence to preserve themselves. But the key point here is that authoritarianism is much wider than that again. Non-Communist non-Fascist regimes have also been that way. Indeed, probably a majority of states across the sweep of human history have been authoritarian in nature, the horror only mitigated by the level of technological advancement limiting how far and fast a psychopathic leader can stamp his authority on a people.

    Democracy is right because it is fundamentally more peaceful. Power is vested in the people and the government serves at their pleasure. Communism and Fascism occupy the space outside that circle, but so does everything else. Is there really a case for saying they are similar in many other ways? I don't see it. The horseshoe doesn't work as a model once you have taken account of democracy and non-democracy. Within that non-democratic space are some pretty wild creatures, and Communism and Fascism are two big, nasty, and quite separate beasts, not the near neighbours some people want to imagine them to be.
    Communists and fascists hate each other, of course, but they hate more moderate members of their own "side" far more. On a number of issues, you'll find a kind of Red/Brown alliance, at least online. Whereas, overall, 80% of left wing voters supported Macron to 20% in round 2, those who self-identified as far left divided almost evenly between the two.
    This is where the "horseshoe" theory DOES have some explanatory value. In that, when out of power extremists on either side can sometimes see some affinity with each other. There's some sense in aligning yourself with other extremists to topple the centre and then hope your faction can win out against the other nutters in the final.
    The trouble is, as per your figures, the extremes break much more heavily towards the centre. That it, for every 1 horseshoe-er, there are 4 people who will take the centrist instead.

    So it's fairer to modify my original take from "horseshoe = nah" to "horseshoe = minority"

    And to reiterate in reply to kle4, the mere fact that Communist and Fascist governments have used violent authoritarianism as a tool is important but slightly less relevant than you think because MOST governments across history have done that. We are in a blessed minority of relative peace.
    The fact that Communist and Fascist governments have managed to dispose of so many of each other's soldiers and innocent civilians is in part a function of technological advancement. We can efficiently kill lots of people. You can bet the Norman Conquest would have looked a lot more like 20th Century warfare if only they had 20th Century weapons. But do either the Communists or the Fascists claim William the Bastard as one of them? I doubt it.
    You'd be surprised. If anything, warfare was even more violent, when conducted with edged and pointed weapons, and when commanders used starvation as a weapon of war, than it is today.

    The Harrying of the North was absolutely brutal by any measure.
    It still is!
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited May 2022
    When will Sunak be replaced as Chancellor of the Exchequer?

    2022 8/11
    2023 or later EVS

    Hills
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,782

    nico679 said:

    I think a big mistake Starmer made was calling for resignations because of an investigation rather than at least waiting to the end of that .

    The Tories will be enjoying this but ironically they don’t want Starmer to resign . We all know Johnson is utterly shameless and his right wing paper friends will do their best to spin things but if Starmer goes the first thing most of the public will ask is why is Johnson still there .

    What happens if he gets more FPNs , what if the Sue Gray report is damning .

    Make the point that Johnson has broken the laws he created and should resign because he lied to parliament about doing to. I always said lying to parliament was the biggie.

    If we come out of this with Johnson still as PM and Starmer gone as the Met slap out a stack of FPNs and the Grey report details Johnson partying at the "I sacked Cummings" event I will likely wee myself laughing.
    Sorry that's rubbish - most ordinary people dont give a chit he lied to parliament , its that he made laws for them he could not keep himself.So he should go and Starmer should go given he voted for them as well.Maybe in future it will mean politicians think twice about imposing stupid laws on people because its the "right thing to do"
    I'm the only person not surprised by it but then I never took the Covid laws literally myself.

    I ignored the pettifogging interpretations that I found irrational or silly, and met my parents several times outside for walks and chats.

    Sure, I broke the laws. i sat on park benches with friends when that was literally (I think) illegal. Then-wife and I had a pizza in a house with another couple near the end of lockdown 1. Etc. Personally, however, I didn’t have a massive party at my home - Boris - nor did I order curry for 30 with a ton of booze and get loaded - Starmer. Nor did I, at the same time, impose stringent laws on the rest of British humanity, which I had no intention of obeying - Boris - and nor did I whine that these laws should be stricter and go on longer - Starmer - who had no intention of obeying

    Fuckers. I despise them

    I’d be quite happy to get rid of the entire House of Commons, as is, Tory, LD and Labour alike, and SNP, all of them, and start over
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 14,764

    Foyle is only NI constituency still outstanding, with 3 seats left to elect

    2 seats left to elect
    Who got the 3rd? Edit - Am guessing SF
    2 SF
    1 SDLP
    at the moment
    2nd SF was elected on 9th count. Now redistributing (I think) votes of eliminated SDLP, which will likely leapfrog still-viable SDLPer ahead of DUPer. With these two likely methinks to win the final seats.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 26,717
    Applicant said:

    Rules in place at time of Keir Starmer evening meal.

    1.—(1) No person may participate in a gathering in the Step 1 area which—
    (a)consists of two or more people, and
    (b)takes place indoors.
    (2) Sub-paragraph (1) does not apply if any of the exceptions set out in paragraph 4 or 5 apply.
    and then this in paragraph 4:
    (6) Exception 3 is that the gathering is reasonably necessary—
    (a)for work purposes or for the provision of voluntary or charitable services;

    Thoughts?

    On the face of it, not reasonably necessary for work. They could have gone back to their hotel and each eaten in their room.
    As they had assembled a stack of activists and Starmer / his team are a bit southern posh I assume what was organised was a "working supper"

    "It doesn't say they did work after the curry" say the accusers. Having been to plenty of those kinds of things I am pretty confident they didn't eat their curry talking about the football...
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,602
    Leon said:


    Sunny Handal did an excellent thread on this. There are ominous signs for Labour amidst the London celebrations. Voting for them by en bloc ethnic minorities is coming to an end


    “Some quick thoughts on Labour getting thrashed in Tower Hamlets, Harrow and Croydon.

    These parts of London have one thing in common - large proportion of ethnic minorities.

    And they rebelled against Labour”

    https://twitter.com/sunny_hundal/status/1522910473011740672?s=21&t=vcK9-hydFRDbGJHNdWBKeQ

    First, we don't know what has happened on Croydon Council so notions of a "thrashing" may be a little premature.

    On the other hand, Newham was 64-2 for Labour, Barking & Dagenham 51-0 for Labour and Redbridge 55-5 for Labour and all these areas have plenty of ethnic minorities so it's a far from conclusive argument.

    I would argue unique factors at work in Harrow and Tower Hamlets but the fact is the Conservatives have taken the bigger kicking across the capital - almost wiped out in Kingston and Richmond, unable to break LD control in Sutton and losing ground in Merton quite apart from losing Wandsworth, Westminster and Barnet to Labour.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,038

    Andy_JS said:

    Just seen that Diane Abbott has called for Keir Starmer to consider his position if the police issue him with a fine. Revenge of the Corbynistas?

    Bless. If Starmer goes, True Socialists will take over again? They really think the rest of the party will give them the way through they found last time?

    Moments like this (and I assume that some of the leaks are from disgruntled Corbynistas) make it clear that Mr Thicky was the bright one in that gang.
    These are precisely the sorts of consideration which mean that despite everything the probabilities for the next GE are still roughly 45% Tory win, 45% Labour led government, 10% or less Labour outright. The demolition of the hard left has not been accomplished.

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    I think a big mistake Starmer made was calling for resignations because of an investigation rather than at least waiting to the end of that .

    The Tories will be enjoying this but ironically they don’t want Starmer to resign . We all know Johnson is utterly shameless and his right wing paper friends will do their best to spin things but if Starmer goes the first thing most of the public will ask is why is Johnson still there .

    What happens if he gets more FPNs , what if the Sue Gray report is damning .

    Make the point that Johnson has broken the laws he created and should resign because he lied to parliament about doing to. I always said lying to parliament was the biggie.

    If we come out of this with Johnson still as PM and Starmer gone as the Met slap out a stack of FPNs and the Grey report details Johnson partying at the "I sacked Cummings" event I will likely wee myself laughing.
    Sorry that's rubbish - most ordinary people dont give a chit he lied to parliament , its that he made laws for them he could not keep himself.So he should go and Starmer should go given he voted for them as well.Maybe in future it will mean politicians think twice about imposing stupid laws on people because its the "right thing to do"
    I'm the only person not surprised by it but then I never took the Covid laws literally myself.

    I ignored the pettifogging interpretations that I found irrational or silly, and met my parents several times outside for walks and chats.

    Sure, I broke the laws. i sat on park benches with friends when that was literally (I think) illegal. Then-wife and I had a pizza in a house with another couple near the end of lockdown 1. Etc. Personally, however, I didn’t have a massive party at my home - Boris - nor did I order curry for 30 with a ton of booze and get loaded - Starmer. Nor did I, at the same time, impose stringent laws on the rest of British humanity, which I had no intention of obeying - Boris - and nor did I whine that these laws should be stricter and go on longer - Starmer - who had no intention of obeying

    Fuckers. I despise them

    I’d be quite happy to get rid of the entire House of Commons, as is, Tory, LD and Labour alike, and SNP, all of them, and start over
    Of course you would. You are not a democrat.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 26,717
    Anyway, runners and riders for the potential Labour leadership election. Lets assume Starmer and Rayner both go. So I am going to guess at:
    Sane left: Nandy
    Sane right: Cooper
    Mouth-foamers: Wrong-Daily
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,609

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    I think a big mistake Starmer made was calling for resignations because of an investigation rather than at least waiting to the end of that .

    The Tories will be enjoying this but ironically they don’t want Starmer to resign . We all know Johnson is utterly shameless and his right wing paper friends will do their best to spin things but if Starmer goes the first thing most of the public will ask is why is Johnson still there .

    What happens if he gets more FPNs , what if the Sue Gray report is damning .

    Make the point that Johnson has broken the laws he created and should resign because he lied to parliament about doing to. I always said lying to parliament was the biggie.

    If we come out of this with Johnson still as PM and Starmer gone as the Met slap out a stack of FPNs and the Grey report details Johnson partying at the "I sacked Cummings" event I will likely wee myself laughing.
    Sorry that's rubbish - most ordinary people dont give a chit he lied to parliament , its that he made laws for them he could not keep himself.So he should go and Starmer should go given he voted for them as well.Maybe in future it will mean politicians think twice about imposing stupid laws on people because its the "right thing to do"
    I'm the only person not surprised by it but then I never took the Covid laws literally myself.

    I ignored the pettifogging interpretations that I found irrational or silly, and met my parents several times outside for walks and chats.

    Sure, I broke the laws. i sat on park benches with friends when that was literally (I think) illegal. Then-wife and I had a pizza in a house with another couple near the end of lockdown 1. Etc. Personally, however, I didn’t have a massive party at my home - Boris - nor did I order curry for 30 with a ton of booze and get loaded - Starmer. Nor did I, at the same time, impose stringent laws on the rest of British humanity, which I had no intention of obeying - Boris - and nor did I whine that these laws should be stricter and go on longer - Starmer - who had no intention of obeying

    Fuckers. I despise them

    I’d be quite happy to get rid of the entire House of Commons, as is, Tory, LD and Labour alike, and SNP, all of them, and start over
    Of course you would. You are not a democrat.
    The Scottish King over the sea speaks!

    (Tongue in cheek)
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,747

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just seen that Diane Abbott has called for Keir Starmer to consider his position if the police issue him with a fine. Revenge of the Corbynistas?

    Bless. If Starmer goes, True Socialists will take over again? They really think the rest of the party will give them the way through they found last time?

    Moments like this (and I assume that some of the leaks are from disgruntled Corbynistas) make it clear that Mr Thicky was the bright one in that gang.
    There are two enormously intelligent Corbynistas. John Trickett and John McDonnell.

    The rest are, as Janan Ganesh said in an admirably succinct summary, thick as pigshit. This does not stop them thinking of themselves as very much brighter than us mere mortals.

    This is however not confined to them. Look at Jacob Rees-Mogg.
    JRM is just a lightweight - pay him no mind!
    Hopefully JRM will lose his Somerset seat in 2024.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Lab Maj drifting

    NOM 1.91
    Con Maj 3.5
    Lab Maj 5.1
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,505
    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    I think a big mistake Starmer made was calling for resignations because of an investigation rather than at least waiting to the end of that .

    The Tories will be enjoying this but ironically they don’t want Starmer to resign . We all know Johnson is utterly shameless and his right wing paper friends will do their best to spin things but if Starmer goes the first thing most of the public will ask is why is Johnson still there .

    What happens if he gets more FPNs , what if the Sue Gray report is damning .

    Make the point that Johnson has broken the laws he created and should resign because he lied to parliament about doing to. I always said lying to parliament was the biggie.

    If we come out of this with Johnson still as PM and Starmer gone as the Met slap out a stack of FPNs and the Grey report details Johnson partying at the "I sacked Cummings" event I will likely wee myself laughing.
    Sorry that's rubbish - most ordinary people dont give a chit he lied to parliament , its that he made laws for them he could not keep himself.So he should go and Starmer should go given he voted for them as well.Maybe in future it will mean politicians think twice about imposing stupid laws on people because its the "right thing to do"
    I'm the only person not surprised by it but then I never took the Covid laws literally myself.

    I ignored the pettifogging interpretations that I found irrational or silly, and met my parents several times outside for walks and chats.

    Sure, I broke the laws. i sat on park benches with friends when that was literally (I think) illegal. Then-wife and I had a pizza in a house with another couple near the end of lockdown 1. Etc. Personally, however, I didn’t have a massive party at my home - Boris - nor did I order curry for 30 with a ton of booze and get loaded - Starmer. Nor did I, at the same time, impose stringent laws on the rest of British humanity, which I had no intention of obeying - Boris - and nor did I whine that these laws should be stricter and go on longer - Starmer - who had no intention of obeying

    Fuckers. I despise them

    I’d be quite happy to get rid of the entire House of Commons, as is, Tory, LD and Labour alike, and SNP, all of them, and start over
    A Year Zero if you will.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    I think a big mistake Starmer made was calling for resignations because of an investigation rather than at least waiting to the end of that .

    The Tories will be enjoying this but ironically they don’t want Starmer to resign . We all know Johnson is utterly shameless and his right wing paper friends will do their best to spin things but if Starmer goes the first thing most of the public will ask is why is Johnson still there .

    What happens if he gets more FPNs , what if the Sue Gray report is damning .

    Make the point that Johnson has broken the laws he created and should resign because he lied to parliament about doing to. I always said lying to parliament was the biggie.

    If we come out of this with Johnson still as PM and Starmer gone as the Met slap out a stack of FPNs and the Grey report details Johnson partying at the "I sacked Cummings" event I will likely wee myself laughing.
    Sorry that's rubbish - most ordinary people dont give a chit he lied to parliament , its that he made laws for them he could not keep himself.So he should go and Starmer should go given he voted for them as well.Maybe in future it will mean politicians think twice about imposing stupid laws on people because its the "right thing to do"
    I'm the only person not surprised by it but then I never took the Covid laws literally myself.

    I ignored the pettifogging interpretations that I found irrational or silly, and met my parents several times outside for walks and chats.

    Sure, I broke the laws. i sat on park benches with friends when that was literally (I think) illegal. Then-wife and I had a pizza in a house with another couple near the end of lockdown 1. Etc. Personally, however, I didn’t have a massive party at my home - Boris - nor did I order curry for 30 with a ton of booze and get loaded - Starmer. Nor did I, at the same time, impose stringent laws on the rest of British humanity, which I had no intention of obeying - Boris - and nor did I whine that these laws should be stricter and go on longer - Starmer - who had no intention of obeying

    Fuckers. I despise them

    I’d be quite happy to get rid of the entire House of Commons, as is, Tory, LD and Labour alike, and SNP, all of them, and start over
    Of course you would. You are not a democrat.
    The Scottish King over the sea speaks!

    (Tongue in cheek)
    Monarch no
    Prince no
    Duke no

    Laird at a push 😉
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    “They were just there drinking,” said the source. “This made some people feel uncomfortable because they knew there was a risk we could be accused of breaking the rules.

    “Mary Foy and her staff were not working and I have not got a problem telling that to the police. They were just getting pissed. They were just there for a jolly. It’s not something that I am prepared to defend. They just thought it was pretty cool to hang out with the leader and deputy leader of the Labour Party. I wouldn’t say they were hammered but they were definitely a little bit tipsy by the end.”

    So another question for legal eagles, does Keir Starmer get fined for other people not following the rules? I am not sure how this works

    Boris did.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 59,562
    nico679 said:

    TimS said:

    SKS should give a press conference tomorrow, Angela by his side, promising that they will resign as leader and deputy leader if the police conclude rules were broken, because “it’s the right and proper thing to do”.

    Would be the ultimate act of kamikaze.

    I am assuming/hoping Wes hasn’t got any lockdown breaches in his history.

    I think at this point your idea is good and would be something of a curveball that the Tories wouldn’t expect . It also puts a lot of pressure on Durham police .

    Where as the Met police know Johnson is a shameless unprincipled liar and wouldn’t resign over a FPN , Durham police will surely realize that their actions could remove the opposition leader .
    Your last sentence is unbelievable

    It has nothing to do with removing the opposition leader, but all to do with did Starmer and Rayner breach covid regulations or not
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,747
    franklyn said:

    Can I please ask Scottish members of the PB readership how the feel Nicola's congratulatory message to Sinn Fein will go down in Protestant quarters of the West of Scotland. I know that in democratic politics we always congratulate winners, but she could easily have sent a private message. Is she losing her normally skilful touch?

    The staunch Protestants in the West of Scotland would never vote SNP. Most SNP supporters would also support Irish unification. So she is playing to her own supporters.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 14,764
    For what it's worth (less than 2-cents) am personally willing to consider Starmer's Curryfest his Last Supper.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,178

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just seen that Diane Abbott has called for Keir Starmer to consider his position if the police issue him with a fine. Revenge of the Corbynistas?

    TBF, that is merely a statement of the obvious. He will have to.

    And would have to go. As the serial liar and law breaker in Downing Street has to go.
    There seems to be some glee from Tories over the latest developments - have they thought this through?

    Let's assume Starmer and Rayner both resign after a currygate fine. "that clears Johnson" seems to be the narrative. And if there are no further FPNs for Johnson then perhaps that might have worked

    But how does BJ hang on having been fined for the BYOB party and the flat party and the various other ones? Starmer had an excuse which will have failed - a campaign event. Supposedly BJ was in the flat singing Kareoke because he was conducting and interview. That going to stick?

    If Starmer does go, Johnson will have to go. Because Tories doing the media rounds to justify why Johnson hasn't gone will fall apart spectacularly quickly. This is expenses gate all over again.
    I am not a Tory, and I take a little glee in this given I've never thought what happened at No. 10 deserved any penalty - the law was a stupid stick when the carrot would probably have worked.

    I also take a little glee in the way so many people - including Starmer - jumped on Johnson and co. over this, and are now either in denial or backpedalling rapidly.

    I will not lose a second's sleep if Johnson resigns because of this. I've never voted for him. I was minded to vote for Labour under Starmer - but it seems his USP of dull competence is actually a veneer of the purest brown.

    Why didn't he have the intelligence to see this coming, either at the time of the event itself, or when he called for Johnson to resign because of the investigation? And why couldn't they get their story straight when the potential issue first became public?
    Yes, what was Sir Keir thinking? At the time I suspect he was horribly distracted, overwhelmed. We've probably forgotten just how significant the Hartlepool by-election seemed back then - a Tory win would confirm Boris's complete ownership of the Red Wall and signify a realignment not seen in British politics for centuries. Thereafter Sir Keir just convinced himself it could be designated as a mere 'work event' and gave it no mind - a kind of denial. He had a lot on his plate. I have some sympathy.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,175

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    8:40 to 10, an hour and twenty minutes for a meal seems pretty fair.

    It even says what they will do afterwards, i.e. no party that went on.

    So I think Starmer is home and clear, seems like he was telling the truth.

    There was nothing planned after the dinner except going back to the hotel so it doesn't match the previous story that they were working late and spontaneously decided to get a takeaway curry.
    Who said they spontaneously chose to get a takeaway curry? The story has always been we were working late and had curry. Which is what the memo confirms to be true. They planned it out, like all organisations do.
    Starmer said they went back to work after eating.
    The memo doesn't prove that to not be true.
    So you're arguing that this memo proves that curry was a the pre-planned working dinner, but we can ignore the bit after?
    The bit after doesn't say they stopped working. It says back Radison whatever that is.

    They probably continued working there.
    Are you happy with the 32 seat Gain in England?

    I think Drakeford made twice as many in little old Wales

    What do you put the massively differential performances down to?


    ie a loss in every Region of England except London

    Spinning this as a triumph yesterday morning makes you look a bit silly IMO
    You were picking and choosing your results to prove a point yesterday and you are still at it again today.

    Both my votes went to Labour here in the Vale of Glamorgan, I did not consider Drakeford when I voted, I doubt many did.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,650
    stodge said:

    Leon said:


    Sunny Handal did an excellent thread on this. There are ominous signs for Labour amidst the London celebrations. Voting for them by en bloc ethnic minorities is coming to an end


    “Some quick thoughts on Labour getting thrashed in Tower Hamlets, Harrow and Croydon.

    These parts of London have one thing in common - large proportion of ethnic minorities.

    And they rebelled against Labour”

    https://twitter.com/sunny_hundal/status/1522910473011740672?s=21&t=vcK9-hydFRDbGJHNdWBKeQ

    First, we don't know what has happened on Croydon Council so notions of a "thrashing" may be a little premature.

    On the other hand, Newham was 64-2 for Labour, Barking & Dagenham 51-0 for Labour and Redbridge 55-5 for Labour and all these areas have plenty of ethnic minorities so it's a far from conclusive argument.

    I would argue unique factors at work in Harrow and Tower Hamlets but the fact is the Conservatives have taken the bigger kicking across the capital - almost wiped out in Kingston and Richmond, unable to break LD control in Sutton and losing ground in Merton quite apart from losing Wandsworth, Westminster and Barnet to Labour.
    Croydon counting now but the mayoralty went to the Tories. That notwithstanding they had a horrible night for sure. Labour's success hides some things though, the Newham mayor lost 17% on last time out, Rahmans Aspire haven't spread beyond TH yet, but given he is looking to implement some eye catching leftist policies neighboring Newham and Hackney etc might look on with interest at this new force. It's the eve of the storm. SLab 2010 looked untouchable too
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 54,663
    Leon said:

    Aspire shows one terrifying truth for Labour. A core constituent of their 'reliable' vote base defects en masse when given something to vote for. Could destroy them in London long term.

    Sunny Handal did an excellent thread on this. There are ominous signs for Labour amidst the London celebrations. Voting for them by en bloc ethnic minorities is coming to an end


    “Some quick thoughts on Labour getting thrashed in Tower Hamlets, Harrow and Croydon.

    These parts of London have one thing in common - large proportion of ethnic minorities.

    And they rebelled against Labour”

    https://twitter.com/sunny_hundal/status/1522910473011740672?s=21&t=vcK9-hydFRDbGJHNdWBKeQ
    The fact that professional minorities have been trending Tory for years is very rarely commented on.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    I think a big mistake Starmer made was calling for resignations because of an investigation rather than at least waiting to the end of that .

    The Tories will be enjoying this but ironically they don’t want Starmer to resign . We all know Johnson is utterly shameless and his right wing paper friends will do their best to spin things but if Starmer goes the first thing most of the public will ask is why is Johnson still there .

    What happens if he gets more FPNs , what if the Sue Gray report is damning .

    Make the point that Johnson has broken the laws he created and should resign because he lied to parliament about doing to. I always said lying to parliament was the biggie.

    If we come out of this with Johnson still as PM and Starmer gone as the Met slap out a stack of FPNs and the Grey report details Johnson partying at the "I sacked Cummings" event I will likely wee myself laughing.
    Sorry that's rubbish - most ordinary people dont give a chit he lied to parliament , its that he made laws for them he could not keep himself.So he should go and Starmer should go given he voted for them as well.Maybe in future it will mean politicians think twice about imposing stupid laws on people because its the "right thing to do"
    I'm the only person not surprised by it but then I never took the Covid laws literally myself.

    I ignored the pettifogging interpretations that I found irrational or silly, and met my parents several times outside for walks and chats.

    Sure, I broke the laws. i sat on park benches with friends when that was literally (I think) illegal. Then-wife and I had a pizza in a house with another couple near the end of lockdown 1. Etc. Personally, however, I didn’t have a massive party at my home - Boris - nor did I order curry for 30 with a ton of booze and get loaded - Starmer. Nor did I, at the same time, impose stringent laws on the rest of British humanity, which I had no intention of obeying - Boris - and nor did I whine that these laws should be stricter and go on longer - Starmer - who had no intention of obeying

    Fuckers. I despise them

    I’d be quite happy to get rid of the entire House of Commons, as is, Tory, LD and Labour alike, and SNP, all of them, and start over
    A Year Zero if you will.
    General Secretary Pol Sean Pot, the saviour of humankind.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,558
    SKS fans furiously saying "Wait for the outcome of the investigation!!!!". But SKS didn't say we should wait for the outcome of the investigation. He said the fact Boris was being investigated by the Met was enough for him to resign.

  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,015
    Rehearsals for the Victory Parade in Moscow this morning. There will be no foreign guests on Monday. The Russian airforce display formation will be in a Z-shape.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,003

    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1523010993361928193

    He said they were working, had dinner and went back to work. The question isn't whether they were working at every moment, it's whether the gathering was reasonably necessary for work and/or volunteering.

    Adam seems to think Starmer is home and dry - guess we will see

    Wasn't Starmer photo'd with a beer in his hand? A meeting very late at night, with booze, and they went back to work?

    Yeah, right.

    The fact that booze and work don't mix has been discussed on here recently. Patygate led to long and boring discussions on what 'party' meant. It seems we need the same discussion for 'work' ;)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,003
    geoffw said:

    Rehearsals for the Victory Parade in Moscow this morning. There will be no foreign guests on Monday. The Russian airforce display formation will be in a Z-shape.

    Videos of the Z-shape have already been seen, from practices.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,217

    SKS fans furiously saying "Wait for the outcome of the investigation!!!!". But SKS didn't say we should wait for the outcome of the investigation. He said the fact Boris was being investigated by the Met was enough for him to resign.

    Bit of a shame then that Johnson's actions have shown that it isn't, isn't it?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 54,663
    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    I think a big mistake Starmer made was calling for resignations because of an investigation rather than at least waiting to the end of that .

    The Tories will be enjoying this but ironically they don’t want Starmer to resign . We all know Johnson is utterly shameless and his right wing paper friends will do their best to spin things but if Starmer goes the first thing most of the public will ask is why is Johnson still there .

    What happens if he gets more FPNs , what if the Sue Gray report is damning .

    Make the point that Johnson has broken the laws he created and should resign because he lied to parliament about doing to. I always said lying to parliament was the biggie.

    If we come out of this with Johnson still as PM and Starmer gone as the Met slap out a stack of FPNs and the Grey report details Johnson partying at the "I sacked Cummings" event I will likely wee myself laughing.
    Sorry that's rubbish - most ordinary people dont give a chit he lied to parliament , its that he made laws for them he could not keep himself.So he should go and Starmer should go given he voted for them as well.Maybe in future it will mean politicians think twice about imposing stupid laws on people because its the "right thing to do"
    I'm the only person not surprised by it but then I never took the Covid laws literally myself.

    I ignored the pettifogging interpretations that I found irrational or silly, and met my parents several times outside for walks and chats.

    Sure, I broke the laws. i sat on park benches with friends when that was literally (I think) illegal. Then-wife and I had a pizza in a house with another couple near the end of lockdown 1. Etc. Personally, however, I didn’t have a massive party at my home - Boris - nor did I order curry for 30 with a ton of booze and get loaded - Starmer. Nor did I, at the same time, impose stringent laws on the rest of British humanity, which I had no intention of obeying - Boris - and nor did I whine that these laws should be stricter and go on longer - Starmer - who had no intention of obeying

    Fuckers. I despise them

    I’d be quite happy to get rid of the entire House of Commons, as is, Tory, LD and Labour alike, and SNP, all of them, and start over
    Yes, it's the hypocrisy that stinks.

    I have no doubt that the rozzers would have felt my collar if they'd known about it.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    franklyn said:

    Can I please ask Scottish members of the PB readership how the feel Nicola's congratulatory message to Sinn Fein will go down in Protestant quarters of the West of Scotland. I know that in democratic politics we always congratulate winners, but she could easily have sent a private message. Is she losing her normally skilful touch?

    The staunch Protestants in the West of Scotland would never vote SNP. Most SNP supporters would also support Irish unification. So she is playing to her own supporters.
    I’m intrigued by the term “staunch Protestant”. Has franklyn attended a kirk service recently? Average age 80. About 80% women. I don’t think these elderly ladies pay much attention to TikTok or Twitter.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,525
    stodge said:

    Leon said:


    Sunny Handal did an excellent thread on this. There are ominous signs for Labour amidst the London celebrations. Voting for them by en bloc ethnic minorities is coming to an end


    “Some quick thoughts on Labour getting thrashed in Tower Hamlets, Harrow and Croydon.

    These parts of London have one thing in common - large proportion of ethnic minorities.

    And they rebelled against Labour”

    https://twitter.com/sunny_hundal/status/1522910473011740672?s=21&t=vcK9-hydFRDbGJHNdWBKeQ

    First, we don't know what has happened on Croydon Council so notions of a "thrashing" may be a little premature.

    On the other hand, Newham was 64-2 for Labour, Barking & Dagenham 51-0 for Labour and Redbridge 55-5 for Labour and all these areas have plenty of ethnic minorities so it's a far from conclusive argument.

    I would argue unique factors at work in Harrow and Tower Hamlets but the fact is the Conservatives have taken the bigger kicking across the capital - almost wiped out in Kingston and Richmond, unable to break LD control in Sutton and losing ground in Merton quite apart from losing Wandsworth, Westminster and Barnet to Labour.
    Redbridge could well end up 58-5 - Mayfield ward election delayed due to a candidate death.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,175

    Lab Maj drifting

    NOM 1.91
    Con Maj 3.5
    Lab Maj 5.1

    If suspect that is more to do with Starmer than the local elections. Labour disappointed up t'North but did better than I anticipated North of the Border.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,782
    stodge said:

    Leon said:


    Sunny Handal did an excellent thread on this. There are ominous signs for Labour amidst the London celebrations. Voting for them by en bloc ethnic minorities is coming to an end


    “Some quick thoughts on Labour getting thrashed in Tower Hamlets, Harrow and Croydon.

    These parts of London have one thing in common - large proportion of ethnic minorities.

    And they rebelled against Labour”

    https://twitter.com/sunny_hundal/status/1522910473011740672?s=21&t=vcK9-hydFRDbGJHNdWBKeQ

    First, we don't know what has happened on Croydon Council so notions of a "thrashing" may be a little premature.

    On the other hand, Newham was 64-2 for Labour, Barking & Dagenham 51-0 for Labour and Redbridge 55-5 for Labour and all these areas have plenty of ethnic minorities so it's a far from conclusive argument.

    I would argue unique factors at work in Harrow and Tower Hamlets but the fact is the Conservatives have taken the bigger kicking across the capital - almost wiped out in Kingston and Richmond, unable to break LD control in Sutton and losing ground in Merton quite apart from losing Wandsworth, Westminster and Barnet to Labour.
    Completely wrong

    What is happening is a repeat of Labour in Scotland and Labour in the Red Wall - and now, probably, the Tories in the South

    Parties that take their core voters for granted get punished, as the previously loyal voters realise they can vote for ANOTHER PARTY and get a load of urgent attention from a previously neglectful government. This will happen to Labour in London. Sunny Handal is right
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,003

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just seen that Diane Abbott has called for Keir Starmer to consider his position if the police issue him with a fine. Revenge of the Corbynistas?

    TBF, that is merely a statement of the obvious. He will have to.

    And would have to go. As the serial liar and law breaker in Downing Street has to go.
    There seems to be some glee from Tories over the latest developments - have they thought this through?

    Let's assume Starmer and Rayner both resign after a currygate fine. "that clears Johnson" seems to be the narrative. And if there are no further FPNs for Johnson then perhaps that might have worked

    But how does BJ hang on having been fined for the BYOB party and the flat party and the various other ones? Starmer had an excuse which will have failed - a campaign event. Supposedly BJ was in the flat singing Kareoke because he was conducting and interview. That going to stick?

    If Starmer does go, Johnson will have to go. Because Tories doing the media rounds to justify why Johnson hasn't gone will fall apart spectacularly quickly. This is expenses gate all over again.
    I am not a Tory, and I take a little glee in this given I've never thought what happened at No. 10 deserved any penalty - the law was a stupid stick when the carrot would probably have worked.

    I also take a little glee in the way so many people - including Starmer - jumped on Johnson and co. over this, and are now either in denial or backpedalling rapidly.

    I will not lose a second's sleep if Johnson resigns because of this. I've never voted for him. I was minded to vote for Labour under Starmer - but it seems his USP of dull competence is actually a veneer of the purest brown.

    Why didn't he have the intelligence to see this coming, either at the time of the event itself, or when he called for Johnson to resign because of the investigation? And why couldn't they get their story straight when the potential issue first became public?
    Yes, what was Sir Keir thinking? At the time I suspect he was horribly distracted, overwhelmed. We've probably forgotten just how significant the Hartlepool by-election seemed back then - a Tory win would confirm Boris's complete ownership of the Red Wall and signify a realignment not seen in British politics for centuries. Thereafter Sir Keir just convinced himself it could be designated as a mere 'work event' and gave it no mind - a kind of denial. He had a lot on his plate. I have some sympathy.
    And Johnson could use the same excuse. He was trying to run the country at a time it was facing a massive crisis. The stress levels must have been enormous: literal life and death decisions to be made every day. He had orders of magnitude more on his plate.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 54,663

    franklyn said:

    Can I please ask Scottish members of the PB readership how the feel Nicola's congratulatory message to Sinn Fein will go down in Protestant quarters of the West of Scotland. I know that in democratic politics we always congratulate winners, but she could easily have sent a private message. Is she losing her normally skilful touch?

    Yawn.
    She's lost the Orange Order and Union Bears for sure.

    This guy won't be too happy either.



    You're obsessed by the orange order and loyalism.

    One wonder why.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 54,663

    What on earth is “Aspire”?

    Lutfur Rahman aspires to line his pockets again.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    For what it's worth (less than 2-cents) am personally willing to consider Starmer's Curryfest his Last Supper.

    If it’s Starmer’s Last Supper then it’s the UK’s Last Supper.

    Labour are the final bastion of the Union, and Starmer is Labour’s best hope.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,609

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    I think a big mistake Starmer made was calling for resignations because of an investigation rather than at least waiting to the end of that .

    The Tories will be enjoying this but ironically they don’t want Starmer to resign . We all know Johnson is utterly shameless and his right wing paper friends will do their best to spin things but if Starmer goes the first thing most of the public will ask is why is Johnson still there .

    What happens if he gets more FPNs , what if the Sue Gray report is damning .

    Make the point that Johnson has broken the laws he created and should resign because he lied to parliament about doing to. I always said lying to parliament was the biggie.

    If we come out of this with Johnson still as PM and Starmer gone as the Met slap out a stack of FPNs and the Grey report details Johnson partying at the "I sacked Cummings" event I will likely wee myself laughing.
    Sorry that's rubbish - most ordinary people dont give a chit he lied to parliament , its that he made laws for them he could not keep himself.So he should go and Starmer should go given he voted for them as well.Maybe in future it will mean politicians think twice about imposing stupid laws on people because its the "right thing to do"
    I'm the only person not surprised by it but then I never took the Covid laws literally myself.

    I ignored the pettifogging interpretations that I found irrational or silly, and met my parents several times outside for walks and chats.

    Sure, I broke the laws. i sat on park benches with friends when that was literally (I think) illegal. Then-wife and I had a pizza in a house with another couple near the end of lockdown 1. Etc. Personally, however, I didn’t have a massive party at my home - Boris - nor did I order curry for 30 with a ton of booze and get loaded - Starmer. Nor did I, at the same time, impose stringent laws on the rest of British humanity, which I had no intention of obeying - Boris - and nor did I whine that these laws should be stricter and go on longer - Starmer - who had no intention of obeying

    Fuckers. I despise them

    I’d be quite happy to get rid of the entire House of Commons, as is, Tory, LD and Labour alike, and SNP, all of them, and start over
    Of course you would. You are not a democrat.
    The Scottish King over the sea speaks!

    (Tongue in cheek)
    Monarch no
    Prince no
    Duke no

    Laird at a push 😉
    My paternal ancestry is Scottish. Peasants to a man. I might worry over your Laird-ship!

    The justified rebellions of the past though are just in the past. I think its best to judge the whole Dickson tribe on current performance though... ah yes well, there have been some odd posts!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,525

    What on earth is “Aspire”?


    You find it on top of a church?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 26,717

    SKS fans furiously saying "Wait for the outcome of the investigation!!!!". But SKS didn't say we should wait for the outcome of the investigation. He said the fact Boris was being investigated by the Met was enough for him to resign.

    The evidence came long before the Met started investigating. We knew Johnson was guilty because of the evidence. Not sure that's the same for Starmer - yet. Similarly "its the law" comments from people on Twitter and a few on here - the law had changed between spring 2020 and spring 2021.

    Not that any of that will save him if the police decide to issue fines...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,175

    SKS fans furiously saying "Wait for the outcome of the investigation!!!!". But SKS didn't say we should wait for the outcome of the investigation. He said the fact Boris was being investigated by the Met was enough for him to resign.

    I haven't. I have said he should go now so as not to allow Johnson off the hook. Guilty or not.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,505

    franklyn said:

    Can I please ask Scottish members of the PB readership how the feel Nicola's congratulatory message to Sinn Fein will go down in Protestant quarters of the West of Scotland. I know that in democratic politics we always congratulate winners, but she could easily have sent a private message. Is she losing her normally skilful touch?

    Yawn.
    She's lost the Orange Order and Union Bears for sure.

    This guy won't be too happy either.



    You're obsessed by the orange order and loyalism.

    One wonder why.
    You seem obessed by my 'obsession'. One wonders why it bothers some random in the home counties?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,270
    geoffw said:

    Rehearsals for the Victory Parade in Moscow this morning. There will be no foreign guests on Monday. The Russian airforce display formation will be in a Z-shape.

    Watch for the impromptu “missing man” formation courtesy of a Ukrainian star streak launch.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,032
    Leon said:

    stodge said:

    Leon said:


    Sunny Handal did an excellent thread on this. There are ominous signs for Labour amidst the London celebrations. Voting for them by en bloc ethnic minorities is coming to an end


    “Some quick thoughts on Labour getting thrashed in Tower Hamlets, Harrow and Croydon.

    These parts of London have one thing in common - large proportion of ethnic minorities.

    And they rebelled against Labour”

    https://twitter.com/sunny_hundal/status/1522910473011740672?s=21&t=vcK9-hydFRDbGJHNdWBKeQ

    First, we don't know what has happened on Croydon Council so notions of a "thrashing" may be a little premature.

    On the other hand, Newham was 64-2 for Labour, Barking & Dagenham 51-0 for Labour and Redbridge 55-5 for Labour and all these areas have plenty of ethnic minorities so it's a far from conclusive argument.

    I would argue unique factors at work in Harrow and Tower Hamlets but the fact is the Conservatives have taken the bigger kicking across the capital - almost wiped out in Kingston and Richmond, unable to break LD control in Sutton and losing ground in Merton quite apart from losing Wandsworth, Westminster and Barnet to Labour.
    Completely wrong

    What is happening is a repeat of Labour in Scotland and Labour in the Red Wall - and now, probably, the Tories in the South

    Parties that take their core voters for granted get punished, as the previously loyal voters realise they can vote for ANOTHER PARTY and get a load of urgent attention from a previously neglectful government. This will happen to Labour in London. Sunny Handal is right
    Not anytime soon. London is Labour's fiefdom. Tories in London will be as rare as hen's teeth come the next election.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,003
    Not so much during the first major lockdown, but I think I broke the law pretty much daily during the January to March 2021 period. The school was shut, and I was spending the day teaching the little 'un. It was rather stressful. I would take him out for a daily walk, but it wasn't really enough exercise for me.

    So I went out for a run every morning, mostly in the dark. I rarely saw anyone. I *think* it was against the law at the time, but as an adult I made my own risk-reward calculation and decided it was okay. It was good for my mental health, if nothing else.

    I was much more careful - and paranoid - during the March-May/June 2020 lockdown, when we knew so much less about the virus.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,554
    edited May 2022

    SKS fans furiously saying "Wait for the outcome of the investigation!!!!". But SKS didn't say we should wait for the outcome of the investigation. He said the fact Boris was being investigated by the Met was enough for him to resign.

    Whatever happens with the investigation it's clear SKS is an absolute fool as well as being insufferably dull...
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 13,722
    edited May 2022

    What on earth is “Aspire”?


    You find it on top of a church?
    Unless it has asteeple, or is a ghastly modern building.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,650
    edited May 2022
    Fwiw, a Johnson led Tory largest party with ca 310 seats would lead to 1974 double header, Johnson resigns and new election with new Tory and large majority 6 months later
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 26,717

    Not so much during the first major lockdown, but I think I broke the law pretty much daily during the January to March 2021 period. The school was shut, and I was spending the day teaching the little 'un. It was rather stressful. I would take him out for a daily walk, but it wasn't really enough exercise for me.

    So I went out for a run every morning, mostly in the dark. I rarely saw anyone. I *think* it was against the law at the time, but as an adult I made my own risk-reward calculation and decided it was okay. It was good for my mental health, if nothing else.

    I was much more careful - and paranoid - during the March-May/June 2020 lockdown, when we knew so much less about the virus.

    That was never against the law. Even during the initial lock down there was no restriction on the amount of exercise you could take.

    I think this is where the Starmer story is going. Most of the stuff people are quoting says "should not" - which is guidance and not law.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,116
    edited May 2022
    Johnson will never resign. He is the turd that has to be flushed.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,650
    murali_s said:

    Leon said:

    stodge said:

    Leon said:


    Sunny Handal did an excellent thread on this. There are ominous signs for Labour amidst the London celebrations. Voting for them by en bloc ethnic minorities is coming to an end


    “Some quick thoughts on Labour getting thrashed in Tower Hamlets, Harrow and Croydon.

    These parts of London have one thing in common - large proportion of ethnic minorities.

    And they rebelled against Labour”

    https://twitter.com/sunny_hundal/status/1522910473011740672?s=21&t=vcK9-hydFRDbGJHNdWBKeQ

    First, we don't know what has happened on Croydon Council so notions of a "thrashing" may be a little premature.

    On the other hand, Newham was 64-2 for Labour, Barking & Dagenham 51-0 for Labour and Redbridge 55-5 for Labour and all these areas have plenty of ethnic minorities so it's a far from conclusive argument.

    I would argue unique factors at work in Harrow and Tower Hamlets but the fact is the Conservatives have taken the bigger kicking across the capital - almost wiped out in Kingston and Richmond, unable to break LD control in Sutton and losing ground in Merton quite apart from losing Wandsworth, Westminster and Barnet to Labour.
    Completely wrong

    What is happening is a repeat of Labour in Scotland and Labour in the Red Wall - and now, probably, the Tories in the South

    Parties that take their core voters for granted get punished, as the previously loyal voters realise they can vote for ANOTHER PARTY and get a load of urgent attention from a previously neglectful government. This will happen to Labour in London. Sunny Handal is right
    Not anytime soon. London is Labour's fiefdom. Tories in London will be as rare as hen's teeth come the next election.
    Fiefdom like Scotland 2010?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,732

    F & ST

    3 SF
    1 UUP
    1DUP

    That is a shockingly bad result for SDLP.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,747

    franklyn said:

    Can I please ask Scottish members of the PB readership how the feel Nicola's congratulatory message to Sinn Fein will go down in Protestant quarters of the West of Scotland. I know that in democratic politics we always congratulate winners, but she could easily have sent a private message. Is she losing her normally skilful touch?

    The staunch Protestants in the West of Scotland would never vote SNP. Most SNP supporters would also support Irish unification. So she is playing to her own supporters.
    I’m intrigued by the term “staunch Protestant”. Has franklyn attended a kirk service recently? Average age 80. About 80% women. I don’t think these elderly ladies pay much attention to TikTok or Twitter.
    Mrs. Fairliered’s elderly relatives always referred to staunch Protestants and bitter Catholics. Thankfully, the family have moved on since those days.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 59,562
    edited May 2022

    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1523010993361928193

    He said they were working, had dinner and went back to work. The question isn't whether they were working at every moment, it's whether the gathering was reasonably necessary for work and/or volunteering.

    Adam seems to think Starmer is home and dry - guess we will see

    Wasn't Starmer photo'd with a beer in his hand? A meeting very late at night, with booze, and they went back to work?

    Yeah, right.

    The fact that booze and work don't mix has been discussed on here recently. Patygate led to long and boring discussions on what 'party' meant. It seems we need the same discussion for 'work' ;)
    This from the Times

    Attendees are quoted of accusing Mary Foy MP and her staff of not working at all and only being their to socialise

    They were there just drinking and that made some people uncomfortable because they knew there was a risk they could be accused of breaking the rules and the attendee does not have a problem telling the police

    If true this adds labour MP Mary Foy to those facing a possible FPN

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,732
    franklyn said:

    Can I please ask Scottish members of the PB readership how the feel Nicola's congratulatory message to Sinn Fein will go down in Protestant quarters of the West of Scotland. I know that in democratic politics we always congratulate winners, but she could easily have sent a private message. Is she losing her normally skilful touch?

    I think it's an example of "my enemy's enemy is my friend."

    Scots who are angered by this don't vote SNP.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    GIN1138 said:

    SKS fans furiously saying "Wait for the outcome of the investigation!!!!". But SKS didn't say we should wait for the outcome of the investigation. He said the fact Boris was being investigated by the Met was enough for him to resign.

    Whatever happens with the investigation is clear SKS is an absolute fool as well as being insufferably dull...
    A craty politician could have while critising the illegal culture within #10 covered their own arse by framing it as rules were too confusing and ever changing, but #10 went beyond inadvertent breaking it was a deliberate culture fostered by the PM.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    I think a big mistake Starmer made was calling for resignations because of an investigation rather than at least waiting to the end of that .

    The Tories will be enjoying this but ironically they don’t want Starmer to resign . We all know Johnson is utterly shameless and his right wing paper friends will do their best to spin things but if Starmer goes the first thing most of the public will ask is why is Johnson still there .

    What happens if he gets more FPNs , what if the Sue Gray report is damning .

    Make the point that Johnson has broken the laws he created and should resign because he lied to parliament about doing to. I always said lying to parliament was the biggie.

    If we come out of this with Johnson still as PM and Starmer gone as the Met slap out a stack of FPNs and the Grey report details Johnson partying at the "I sacked Cummings" event I will likely wee myself laughing.
    Sorry that's rubbish - most ordinary people dont give a chit he lied to parliament , its that he made laws for them he could not keep himself.So he should go and Starmer should go given he voted for them as well.Maybe in future it will mean politicians think twice about imposing stupid laws on people because its the "right thing to do"
    I'm the only person not surprised by it but then I never took the Covid laws literally myself.

    I ignored the pettifogging interpretations that I found irrational or silly, and met my parents several times outside for walks and chats.

    Sure, I broke the laws. i sat on park benches with friends when that was literally (I think) illegal. Then-wife and I had a pizza in a house with another couple near the end of lockdown 1. Etc. Personally, however, I didn’t have a massive party at my home - Boris - nor did I order curry for 30 with a ton of booze and get loaded - Starmer. Nor did I, at the same time, impose stringent laws on the rest of British humanity, which I had no intention of obeying - Boris - and nor did I whine that these laws should be stricter and go on longer - Starmer - who had no intention of obeying

    Fuckers. I despise them

    I’d be quite happy to get rid of the entire House of Commons, as is, Tory, LD and Labour alike, and SNP, all of them, and start over
    How about a Cabinet of PBers, with a Parliament of the rest?

    TSE - PM
    Cyclefree - Home Secretary
    MaxPB - Chancellor
    BlancheLivermore - Foreign Secretary
    Dura Ace - Defence
    Casino Royale - Transport
    Me - Education
    Foxy - Health
    DavidL - Justice
    Moon rabbit - Minister for Sport
    Leon - Culture
    Eabhal - Scotland
    Y Bardd Cwsc - Wales
    Beibherli C - Northern Ireland
    Gallowgate - Levelling Up.
    Malmesbury - Leader of the House and responsible for the ONS assisted by tlg86

    Just think how much better a government that would be than this one...
    That would last one circle of the sunday papers when somebody googled their posts on PB.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,175
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    I think a big mistake Starmer made was calling for resignations because of an investigation rather than at least waiting to the end of that .

    The Tories will be enjoying this but ironically they don’t want Starmer to resign . We all know Johnson is utterly shameless and his right wing paper friends will do their best to spin things but if Starmer goes the first thing most of the public will ask is why is Johnson still there .

    What happens if he gets more FPNs , what if the Sue Gray report is damning .

    Make the point that Johnson has broken the laws he created and should resign because he lied to parliament about doing to. I always said lying to parliament was the biggie.

    If we come out of this with Johnson still as PM and Starmer gone as the Met slap out a stack of FPNs and the Grey report details Johnson partying at the "I sacked Cummings" event I will likely wee myself laughing.
    Sorry that's rubbish - most ordinary people dont give a chit he lied to parliament , its that he made laws for them he could not keep himself.So he should go and Starmer should go given he voted for them as well.Maybe in future it will mean politicians think twice about imposing stupid laws on people because its the "right thing to do"
    I'm the only person not surprised by it but then I never took the Covid laws literally myself.

    I ignored the pettifogging interpretations that I found irrational or silly, and met my parents several times outside for walks and chats.

    Sure, I broke the laws. i sat on park benches with friends when that was literally (I think) illegal. Then-wife and I had a pizza in a house with another couple near the end of lockdown 1. Etc. Personally, however, I didn’t have a massive party at my home - Boris - nor did I order curry for 30 with a ton of booze and get loaded - Starmer. Nor did I, at the same time, impose stringent laws on the rest of British humanity, which I had no intention of obeying - Boris - and nor did I whine that these laws should be stricter and go on longer - Starmer - who had no intention of obeying

    Fuckers. I despise them

    I’d be quite happy to get rid of the entire House of Commons, as is, Tory, LD and Labour alike, and SNP, all of them, and start over
    How about a Cabinet of PBers, with a Parliament of the rest?

    TSE - PM
    Cyclefree - Home Secretary
    MaxPB - Chancellor
    BlancheLivermore - Foreign Secretary
    Dura Ace - Defence
    Casino Royale - Transport
    Me - Education
    Foxy - Health
    DavidL - Justice
    Moon rabbit - Minister for Sport
    Leon - Culture
    Eabhal - Scotland
    Y Bardd Cwsc - Wales
    Beibherli C - Northern Ireland
    Gallowgate - Levelling Up.
    Malmesbury - Leader of the House and responsible for the ONS assisted by tlg86

    Just think how much better a government that would be than this one...
    I knew you were taking the piss when I saw Leon at Culture.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,732

    Leon said:

    Aspire shows one terrifying truth for Labour. A core constituent of their 'reliable' vote base defects en masse when given something to vote for. Could destroy them in London long term.

    Sunny Handal did an excellent thread on this. There are ominous signs for Labour amidst the London celebrations. Voting for them by en bloc ethnic minorities is coming to an end


    “Some quick thoughts on Labour getting thrashed in Tower Hamlets, Harrow and Croydon.

    These parts of London have one thing in common - large proportion of ethnic minorities.

    And they rebelled against Labour”

    https://twitter.com/sunny_hundal/status/1522910473011740672?s=21&t=vcK9-hydFRDbGJHNdWBKeQ
    Labour has a habit of losing from unassailable strength - Scotland, Blaenau Gwent, Tower Hamlets, Bethnal Green, The Red Wall.
    They are very easy to turn your back on and have been since the post Wilson/Callaghan era
    I don't think one can generalise. I don't know why Labour lost Croydon.

    The politics of Tower Hamlets are unique. As to Harrow, it's simply a case of professional voters of Indian background gradually drifting towards the Conservatives, as the Jews started doing, fifty years ago.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,003

    Not so much during the first major lockdown, but I think I broke the law pretty much daily during the January to March 2021 period. The school was shut, and I was spending the day teaching the little 'un. It was rather stressful. I would take him out for a daily walk, but it wasn't really enough exercise for me.

    So I went out for a run every morning, mostly in the dark. I rarely saw anyone. I *think* it was against the law at the time, but as an adult I made my own risk-reward calculation and decided it was okay. It was good for my mental health, if nothing else.

    I was much more careful - and paranoid - during the March-May/June 2020 lockdown, when we knew so much less about the virus.

    That was never against the law. Even during the initial lock down there was no restriction on the amount of exercise you could take.

    I think this is where the Starmer story is going. Most of the stuff people are quoting says "should not" - which is guidance and not law.
    That was not my understanding of it at the time. Are you sure about that?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,270

    Fwiw, a Johnson led Tory largest party with ca 310 seats would lead to 1974 double header, Johnson resigns and new election with new Tory and large majority 6 months later

    Agree. There’s a Tory minority Gvt landing zone based on others’ politics around the SNP.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,747

    What on earth is “Aspire”?


    You find it on top of a church?
    Unless it has asteeple, or is a ghastly modern building.
    Or a tower, which brings us back to Hamlets.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,217
    edited May 2022
    biggles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    I think a big mistake Starmer made was calling for resignations because of an investigation rather than at least waiting to the end of that .

    The Tories will be enjoying this but ironically they don’t want Starmer to resign . We all know Johnson is utterly shameless and his right wing paper friends will do their best to spin things but if Starmer goes the first thing most of the public will ask is why is Johnson still there .

    What happens if he gets more FPNs , what if the Sue Gray report is damning .

    Make the point that Johnson has broken the laws he created and should resign because he lied to parliament about doing to. I always said lying to parliament was the biggie.

    If we come out of this with Johnson still as PM and Starmer gone as the Met slap out a stack of FPNs and the Grey report details Johnson partying at the "I sacked Cummings" event I will likely wee myself laughing.
    Sorry that's rubbish - most ordinary people dont give a chit he lied to parliament , its that he made laws for them he could not keep himself.So he should go and Starmer should go given he voted for them as well.Maybe in future it will mean politicians think twice about imposing stupid laws on people because its the "right thing to do"
    I'm the only person not surprised by it but then I never took the Covid laws literally myself.

    I ignored the pettifogging interpretations that I found irrational or silly, and met my parents several times outside for walks and chats.

    Sure, I broke the laws. i sat on park benches with friends when that was literally (I think) illegal. Then-wife and I had a pizza in a house with another couple near the end of lockdown 1. Etc. Personally, however, I didn’t have a massive party at my home - Boris - nor did I order curry for 30 with a ton of booze and get loaded - Starmer. Nor did I, at the same time, impose stringent laws on the rest of British humanity, which I had no intention of obeying - Boris - and nor did I whine that these laws should be stricter and go on longer - Starmer - who had no intention of obeying

    Fuckers. I despise them

    I’d be quite happy to get rid of the entire House of Commons, as is, Tory, LD and Labour alike, and SNP, all of them, and start over
    How about a Cabinet of PBers, with a Parliament of the rest?

    TSE - PM
    Cyclefree - Home Secretary
    MaxPB - Chancellor
    BlancheLivermore - Foreign Secretary
    Dura Ace - Defence
    Casino Royale - Transport
    Me - Education
    Foxy - Health
    DavidL - Justice
    Moon rabbit - Minister for Sport
    Leon - Culture
    Eabhal - Scotland
    Y Bardd Cwsc - Wales
    Beibherli C - Northern Ireland
    Gallowgate - Levelling Up.
    Malmesbury - Leader of the House and responsible for the ONS assisted by tlg86

    Just think how much better a government that would be than this one...
    Can I be a junior minister in the Cabinet Office, for the parties?
    As long as you don't wine about your excessive workload...
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,032

    Fwiw, a Johnson led Tory largest party with ca 310 seats would lead to 1974 double header, Johnson resigns and new election with new Tory and large majority 6 months later

    Tories can't govern with 310. Lepers?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 13,722

    stodge said:

    Leon said:


    Sunny Handal did an excellent thread on this. There are ominous signs for Labour amidst the London celebrations. Voting for them by en bloc ethnic minorities is coming to an end


    “Some quick thoughts on Labour getting thrashed in Tower Hamlets, Harrow and Croydon.

    These parts of London have one thing in common - large proportion of ethnic minorities.

    And they rebelled against Labour”

    https://twitter.com/sunny_hundal/status/1522910473011740672?s=21&t=vcK9-hydFRDbGJHNdWBKeQ

    First, we don't know what has happened on Croydon Council so notions of a "thrashing" may be a little premature.

    On the other hand, Newham was 64-2 for Labour, Barking & Dagenham 51-0 for Labour and Redbridge 55-5 for Labour and all these areas have plenty of ethnic minorities so it's a far from conclusive argument.

    I would argue unique factors at work in Harrow and Tower Hamlets but the fact is the Conservatives have taken the bigger kicking across the capital - almost wiped out in Kingston and Richmond, unable to break LD control in Sutton and losing ground in Merton quite apart from losing Wandsworth, Westminster and Barnet to Labour.
    Redbridge could well end up 58-5 - Mayfield ward election delayed due to a candidate death.
    Similarly, Labour are up a couple in Bromley, and a few in Havering. The big picture is London rippling out.

    It doesn't define the whole country, but it's noteworthy.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 8,615

    For what it's worth (less than 2-cents) am personally willing to consider Starmer's Curryfest his Last Supper.

    If it’s Starmer’s Last Supper then it’s the UK’s Last Supper.

    Labour are the final bastion of the Union, and Starmer is Labour’s best hope.
    Depends who they replace him with.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,217

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    I think a big mistake Starmer made was calling for resignations because of an investigation rather than at least waiting to the end of that .

    The Tories will be enjoying this but ironically they don’t want Starmer to resign . We all know Johnson is utterly shameless and his right wing paper friends will do their best to spin things but if Starmer goes the first thing most of the public will ask is why is Johnson still there .

    What happens if he gets more FPNs , what if the Sue Gray report is damning .

    Make the point that Johnson has broken the laws he created and should resign because he lied to parliament about doing to. I always said lying to parliament was the biggie.

    If we come out of this with Johnson still as PM and Starmer gone as the Met slap out a stack of FPNs and the Grey report details Johnson partying at the "I sacked Cummings" event I will likely wee myself laughing.
    Sorry that's rubbish - most ordinary people dont give a chit he lied to parliament , its that he made laws for them he could not keep himself.So he should go and Starmer should go given he voted for them as well.Maybe in future it will mean politicians think twice about imposing stupid laws on people because its the "right thing to do"
    I'm the only person not surprised by it but then I never took the Covid laws literally myself.

    I ignored the pettifogging interpretations that I found irrational or silly, and met my parents several times outside for walks and chats.

    Sure, I broke the laws. i sat on park benches with friends when that was literally (I think) illegal. Then-wife and I had a pizza in a house with another couple near the end of lockdown 1. Etc. Personally, however, I didn’t have a massive party at my home - Boris - nor did I order curry for 30 with a ton of booze and get loaded - Starmer. Nor did I, at the same time, impose stringent laws on the rest of British humanity, which I had no intention of obeying - Boris - and nor did I whine that these laws should be stricter and go on longer - Starmer - who had no intention of obeying

    Fuckers. I despise them

    I’d be quite happy to get rid of the entire House of Commons, as is, Tory, LD and Labour alike, and SNP, all of them, and start over
    How about a Cabinet of PBers, with a Parliament of the rest?

    TSE - PM
    Cyclefree - Home Secretary
    MaxPB - Chancellor
    BlancheLivermore - Foreign Secretary
    Dura Ace - Defence
    Casino Royale - Transport
    Me - Education
    Foxy - Health
    DavidL - Justice
    Moon rabbit - Minister for Sport
    Leon - Culture
    Eabhal - Scotland
    Y Bardd Cwsc - Wales
    Beibherli C - Northern Ireland
    Gallowgate - Levelling Up.
    Malmesbury - Leader of the House and responsible for the ONS assisted by tlg86

    Just think how much better a government that would be than this one...
    That would last one circle of the sunday papers when somebody googled their posts on PB.
    Why? Do the Sundays not approve of proper pizza, gardening, the right sort of shoes and actually, y'know, hiring people who know their shit rather than don't know they're shit?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,558

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    8:40 to 10, an hour and twenty minutes for a meal seems pretty fair.

    It even says what they will do afterwards, i.e. no party that went on.

    So I think Starmer is home and clear, seems like he was telling the truth.

    There was nothing planned after the dinner except going back to the hotel so it doesn't match the previous story that they were working late and spontaneously decided to get a takeaway curry.
    Who said they spontaneously chose to get a takeaway curry? The story has always been we were working late and had curry. Which is what the memo confirms to be true. They planned it out, like all organisations do.
    Starmer said they went back to work after eating.
    The memo doesn't prove that to not be true.
    So you're arguing that this memo proves that curry was a the pre-planned working dinner, but we can ignore the bit after?
    The bit after doesn't say they stopped working. It says back Radison whatever that is.

    They probably continued working there.
    Are you happy with the 32 seat Gain in England?

    I think Drakeford made twice as many in little old Wales

    What do you put the massively differential performances down to?


    ie a loss in every Region of England except London

    Spinning this as a triumph yesterday morning makes you look a bit silly IMO
    You were picking and choosing your results to prove a point yesterday and you are still at it again today.

    Both my votes went to Labour here in the Vale of Glamorgan, I did not consider Drakeford when I voted, I doubt many did.
    So why did Labour do brilliantly in Wales - 66 Gains

    And in the whole of England much poorer - 29 Gains

    In England they went backwards in every Region except London

    Why?
This discussion has been closed.