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The big fact about the next election – politicalbetting.com

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  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 20,409
    Farooq said:

    Aspire GAIN Tower Hamlets council from Labour with a majority of 3 (2 wards to declare, probably Lab holds)
    Rahman has his council to go with his mayoralty

    Brilliant
    You're literally cheering on somebody winning an election having been banned for fraud five years ago.

    This is the depths you have gone to.
    Its another nail in the Starmer coffin

    Voters just kicked Labour out for a bunch of Socialists whats not to like
    BJO.

    I am saying to you, whatever our differences, please don't cheer on a convicted fraudster winning an election. Please don't do that.
    He has served his time

    Please respect democracy

    Labour shouldnt be in this position

    SKS is useless

    Anyone defending him after yesterdays results must want Labour to lose is the only conclusion I can reach

    Tory enablers i think is the phrase
    I'm going to have to put you on the ignore list mate, I can't deal with people who are so far down the rabbit hole like this. Hope you'll be able to get out one day.
    SKS fans are the Tory enablers

    You want be able to ignore the GE result
    Do you think if Labour lose an election with SKS as Labour leader that your POV will be vindicated?
    Well, imagine how Labour people who didn't like Corbyn feel after he lost two.
    "Pleased" I dont have to imagine do I
  • If Starmer does get a fine, surely no question Johnson should get one for the wine work thingy that was pictured?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 51,349
    Leon said:

    But if Starmer resigns, not only does somebody like Streeting take over who is decent - but Johnson looks like a man with no honour.

    One one level, we know that already. But... to have it made that explicit, that blatant, are Conservative MPs really up for that? I can see the calculation- hell, I wrote it down earlier today- but are they really that soulless and spineless? Perhaps.

    Besides. Starmer had an important, necessary job; move
    Labour on from the Corbyn fiasco. He's done that with admirable efficiency, and perhaps he was the only one who could. If a new generation leader with more pizzazz moves in before 2024, that isn't really in the Conservatives' interest.

    (PS on TH; Rahman is no more a True Socialist than Degsy Hatton was. In both cases, it's all about ego. Anyone who tells you otherwise is either a fool or in on the grift.)
    Labour have a better chance of a game-changing election WIN with someone like Rayner or Streeting than they do with the utterly dreary Starmer. Esp if Starmer loses his dull-but-honest USP, which now seems probable

    A Starmer who is nearly as shifty as Boris - but much more boring and with no policies, is a hard sell
    Astute.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 33,484

    I'm not convinced the DUP wouldn't do a deal in the end with Tories.

    They would for the right sum. I said that FF are the most corrupt political party in Western Europe. The DUP are the second most corrupt.

    They shot themselves in the foot, as usual, with the St. Andrews Agreement. Prior to that, the largest bloc nominated the First Minister. They insisted on changing that to the largest party. Had they stuck to the original agreement, the First Minister would come from 37 Unionists, rather than 35 Nationalists.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 31,626
    edited May 2022

    If Starmer does get a fine, surely no question Johnson should get one for the wine work thingy that was pictured?

    'should' as in 'deserves to', or is 'logically forced to'?

    Different police forces. One of which didn't bother to send Mr J this new fangled questionnaire thingy for at least one event.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 12,085
    Fermanagh and South Tyrone = 3 SF, 1 UUP, 1 DUP

    with 84/90 seats elected so far

    SF 26 DUP 24 Alln 17, UUP 9, SDLP 7, Ind Unionist 2, TUV 1, PBP 1
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,115

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    36s
    I mean this genuinely. What is the material - or legal - difference between organising a curry and beer once all work has been completed, and organising wine and cheese once all work has been completed.

  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,462


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    36s
    I mean this genuinely. What is the material - or legal - difference between organising a curry and beer once all work has been completed, and organising wine and cheese once all work has been completed.

    Hm? Has anyone ever challenged Hodges on the genuineness of his support for the Conservatives?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 8,426

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Aspire GAIN Tower Hamlets council from Labour with a majority of 3 (2 wards to declare, probably Lab holds)
    Rahman has his council to go with his mayoralty

    Brilliant
    You're literally cheering on somebody winning an election having been banned for fraud five years ago.

    This is the depths you have gone to.
    Tribalism is a hell of a drug
    I am so very glad I have got out of it.

    Keir will have to resign if he gets fined and I would very strongly support such an action.
    Yes. My feeling is this is no breach and is being ramped by desperate opponents. But I'm happy to join them in calling for his resignation if they are right and I'm wrong.
    Have you seen the Sunday Times?
    Yes, I have, and I stand by both my views: that I think this isn't a breach of the rules and that I might be wrong and I'm happy to swing in behind your call for him to go if I am.
    It's no skin off my nose if he goes, I'm neither a supporter nor an opponent of his. But unless the police say otherwise, the ST article hasn't changed my mind.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Leon said:

    But if Starmer resigns, not only does somebody like Streeting take over who is decent - but Johnson looks like a man with no honour.

    One one level, we know that already. But... to have it made that explicit, that blatant, are Conservative MPs really up for that? I can see the calculation- hell, I wrote it down earlier today- but are they really that soulless and spineless? Perhaps.

    Besides. Starmer had an important, necessary job; move
    Labour on from the Corbyn fiasco. He's done that with admirable efficiency, and perhaps he was the only one who could. If a new generation leader with more pizzazz moves in before 2024, that isn't really in the Conservatives' interest.

    (PS on TH; Rahman is no more a True Socialist than Degsy Hatton was. In both cases, it's all about ego. Anyone who tells you otherwise is either a fool or in on the grift.)
    Labour have a better chance of a game-changing election WIN with someone like Rayner or Streeting than they do with the utterly dreary Starmer. Esp if Starmer loses his dull-but-honest USP, which now seems probable

    A Starmer who is nearly as shifty as Boris - but much more boring and with no policies, is a hard sell
    Rayner faces the problem that she would completely petrify the Blue Wall voters for nothing else than her background. Class snobbery is still rampant in this country and the idea that many middle class voters who might be tempted by the dreary SKS are going to vote for a working class, non-graduate gobby Northener who got pregnant at 16 is a fantasy. She definitely will relate more to the RW voters but there will be a fair few who will believe that she is not 'qualified' to be PM.

    That, of course, is also assuming she doesn't get fined.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 1,982
    I happened to be in a pub in Hackney one evening when all the councillors piled in after a meeting. I got the impression each was afraid to go home in case the others conspired against them in their absence. This is what political 'work' consists of. As the old saying goes, 'if you want a friend in politics, get a dog'.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,115
    Yeh Gods, the leaked memo even notes at the top that there is a national lockdown on.

    Then lists 'dinner with Mary Foy' as the final event of the day.

  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,611
    Leon said:

    But if Starmer resigns, not only does somebody like Streeting take over who is decent - but Johnson looks like a man with no honour.

    One one level, we know that already. But... to have it made that explicit, that blatant, are Conservative MPs really up for that? I can see the calculation- hell, I wrote it down earlier today- but are they really that soulless and spineless? Perhaps.

    Besides. Starmer had an important, necessary job; move
    Labour on from the Corbyn fiasco. He's done that with admirable efficiency, and perhaps he was the only one who could. If a new generation leader with more pizzazz moves in before 2024, that isn't really in the Conservatives' interest.

    (PS on TH; Rahman is no more a True Socialist than Degsy Hatton was. In both cases, it's all about ego. Anyone who tells you otherwise is either a fool or in on the grift.)
    Labour have a better chance of a game-changing election WIN with someone like Rayner or Streeting than they do with the utterly dreary Starmer. Esp if Starmer loses his dull-but-honest USP, which now seems probable

    A Starmer who is nearly as shifty as Boris - but much more boring and with no policies, is a hard sell
    Surely Rayner stays or falls with Sir Keir now, now that we know she was present at the illegal Durham rave. Presumably that's why Labour were initially shifty about her presence - to lose one senior figure might be unfortunate, to lose two... etc.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Farooq said:

    Aspire GAIN Tower Hamlets council from Labour with a majority of 3 (2 wards to declare, probably Lab holds)
    Rahman has his council to go with his mayoralty

    Brilliant
    You're literally cheering on somebody winning an election having been banned for fraud five years ago.

    This is the depths you have gone to.
    Its another nail in the Starmer coffin

    Voters just kicked Labour out for a bunch of Socialists whats not to like
    BJO.

    I am saying to you, whatever our differences, please don't cheer on a convicted fraudster winning an election. Please don't do that.
    He has served his time

    Please respect democracy

    Labour shouldnt be in this position

    SKS is useless

    Anyone defending him after yesterdays results must want Labour to lose is the only conclusion I can reach

    Tory enablers i think is the phrase
    I'm going to have to put you on the ignore list mate, I can't deal with people who are so far down the rabbit hole like this. Hope you'll be able to get out one day.
    SKS fans are the Tory enablers

    You want be able to ignore the GE result
    Do you think if Labour lose an election with SKS as Labour leader that your POV will be vindicated?
    Well, imagine how Labour people who didn't like Corbyn feel after he lost two.
    "Pleased" I dont have to imagine do I
    Champagne tonight @bigjohnowls or something more down with the proletariat?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 20,409
    Sean_F said:

    I'm delighted to see that Peter Golds hung on in Tower Hamlets.

    In response to BJO, neither Rahman nor Aspire are socialists. They're are straightforward sectarians.

    Rahman had a radical agenda, with a promise to build 1,000 homes a year, ring-fenced frontline services, kept social care free and universal and paid the living wage. He introduced universal free school meals in primary schools

    Sounds better than the Labour offer to me
  • Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Aspire GAIN Tower Hamlets council from Labour with a majority of 3 (2 wards to declare, probably Lab holds)
    Rahman has his council to go with his mayoralty

    Brilliant
    You're literally cheering on somebody winning an election having been banned for fraud five years ago.

    This is the depths you have gone to.
    Tribalism is a hell of a drug
    I am so very glad I have got out of it.

    Keir will have to resign if he gets fined and I would very strongly support such an action.
    Yes. My feeling is this is no breach and is being ramped by desperate opponents. But I'm happy to join them in calling for his resignation if they are right and I'm wrong.
    Have you seen the Sunday Times?
    Yes, I have, and I stand by both my views: that I think this isn't a breach of the rules and that I might be wrong and I'm happy to swing in behind your call for him to go if I am.
    It's no skin off my nose if he goes, I'm neither a supporter nor an opponent of his. But unless the police say otherwise, the ST article hasn't changed my mind.
    I think, what it will come down to ultimately is if the police deem it as necessary.

    People can call Starmer slippery for how he has portrayed things - but ultimately if there's no proof that this wasn't necessary for work, he will be okay.

    The fact the Mail are obsessed with this being at the end of the day suggests they know this, because I am not convinced that being at the end of the day (if it was, the memo has something afterwards), makes any difference. But I am not an expert on the rules.

    Very mixed blessing though, because a Starmer replacement will be somebody in his own image. The MPs will game it for sure.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 12,085

    I happened to be in a pub in Hackney one evening when all the councillors piled in after a meeting. I got the impression each was afraid to go home in case the others conspired against them in their absence. This is what political 'work' consists of. As the old saying goes, 'if you want a friend in politics, get a dog'.

    Called the Rule of the Iron Bottoms = they with iron bottoms thus staying power for loooooong meetings, rule.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 33,484
    Farooq said:

    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    kjh said:

    Alistair said:

    I see PB favourite Paul Joseph Watson has been caught airing some views that were all the rage in early 1940s Germany.

    What has he said? I used to follow him, but don't now. He is always good for a laugh provided you are not easily converted by cults (I did spell that correctly). I got introduced to him by Plato.
    He was caught saying he'd like to wipe Jews off the planet.

    His outlook is similar to that of his near namesake, Paul Joseph Goebbels.
    Ah the horse shoe of politics, where the far left and far right are much closer to each other, than to more mainstream and centrist viewpoints.
    I understand why people like this view, but it has a troubling lack of traction in reality.
    When I put my ideological hat on, I see the horseshoe very clearly. I'm a centrist and I see overlaps between people on the extremes in both directions, but when you study history you get a very different picture. To dive straight into the the headline-grabbing example, Fascism and Communism, you see two ideologies that were bitterly and violently in opposition.
    I know some people like to fall back on "sibling rivalry" as an explanation for why they went around murdering each other and ended up in a war of annihilation, but that doesn't stack up. To take the views of the proponents of both at face value is to see a an extremely bitter enmity on the most fundamental level. They very thing that makes humans more than just an animal, the way we organise ourselves into groups with a common agenda, are completely different under both ideologies. The unrelenting horizontality of Communism, where even the concept of private property is sacrificed under the guise of freeing the worker from exploitative relations of production. And with fascism, the unyielding verticality. The racial tribe is a unit that must work under the direction of a quasi-religious leader, the total submission of the individual to that authority, the preservation of some mythical purity.
    To put it another way, the denial of difference versus the paranoid fear of those who are different.

    These are fundamentally different world views.

    Part of this is muddied by the practice of authoritarianism. It's easy to see the similarity when you only think of the repressive, murderous nature of governments that are riddled with these toxic ideologies. The horrifying violence that came with both is in some ways intrinsic to them because both Communism and Fascism are unnatural and they need violence to preserve themselves. But the key point here is that authoritarianism is much wider than that again. Non-Communist non-Fascist regimes have also been that way. Indeed, probably a majority of states across the sweep of human history have been authoritarian in nature, the horror only mitigated by the level of technological advancement limiting how far and fast a psychopathic leader can stamp his authority on a people.

    Democracy is right because it is fundamentally more peaceful. Power is vested in the people and the government serves at their pleasure. Communism and Fascism occupy the space outside that circle, but so does everything else. Is there really a case for saying they are similar in many other ways? I don't see it. The horseshoe doesn't work as a model once you have taken account of democracy and non-democracy. Within that non-democratic space are some pretty wild creatures, and Communism and Fascism are two big, nasty, and quite separate beasts, not the near neighbours some people want to imagine them to be.
    Communists and fascists hate each other, of course, but they hate more moderate members of their own "side" far more. On a number of issues, you'll find a kind of Red/Brown alliance, at least online. Whereas, overall, 80% of left wing voters supported Macron to 20% in round 2, those who self-identified as far left divided almost evenly between the two.
    This is where the "horseshoe" theory DOES have some explanatory value. In that, when out of power extremists on either side can sometimes see some affinity with each other. There's some sense in aligning yourself with other extremists to topple the centre and then hope your faction can win out against the other nutters in the final.
    The trouble is, as per your figures, the extremes break much more heavily towards the centre. That it, for every 1 horseshoe-er, there are 4 people who will take the centrist instead.

    So it's fairer to modify my original take from "horseshoe = nah" to "horseshoe = minority"

    And to reiterate in reply to kle4, the mere fact that Communist and Fascist governments have used violent authoritarianism as a tool is important but slightly less relevant than you think because MOST governments across history have done that. We are in a blessed minority of relative peace.
    The fact that Communist and Fascist governments have managed to dispose of so many of each other's soldiers and innocent civilians is in part a function of technological advancement. We can efficiently kill lots of people. You can bet the Norman Conquest would have looked a lot more like 20th Century warfare if only they had 20th Century weapons. But do either the Communists or the Fascists claim William the Bastard as one of them? I doubt it.
    You'd be surprised. If anything, warfare was even more violent, when conducted with edged and pointed weapons, and when commanders used starvation as a weapon of war, than it is today.

    The Harrying of the North was absolutely brutal by any measure.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 8,426

    Farooq said:

    Aspire GAIN Tower Hamlets council from Labour with a majority of 3 (2 wards to declare, probably Lab holds)
    Rahman has his council to go with his mayoralty

    Brilliant
    You're literally cheering on somebody winning an election having been banned for fraud five years ago.

    This is the depths you have gone to.
    Its another nail in the Starmer coffin

    Voters just kicked Labour out for a bunch of Socialists whats not to like
    BJO.

    I am saying to you, whatever our differences, please don't cheer on a convicted fraudster winning an election. Please don't do that.
    He has served his time

    Please respect democracy

    Labour shouldnt be in this position

    SKS is useless

    Anyone defending him after yesterdays results must want Labour to lose is the only conclusion I can reach

    Tory enablers i think is the phrase
    I'm going to have to put you on the ignore list mate, I can't deal with people who are so far down the rabbit hole like this. Hope you'll be able to get out one day.
    SKS fans are the Tory enablers

    You want be able to ignore the GE result
    Do you think if Labour lose an election with SKS as Labour leader that your POV will be vindicated?
    Well, imagine how Labour people who didn't like Corbyn feel after he lost two.
    "Pleased" I dont have to imagine do I
    You don't get to be vindicated if the above happens without also acknowledging they were right. Corbyn was hopeless. He lost, and then he lost again. And you want him to rise from the grave and lose a third time. Night of the Living Red.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    NEW: The Sunday Times has a Labour source present at the Durham party who confirms NO work was done after the curry and beer, as per Mail on Sunday's leaked op note.

    The Times' source is willing to help Durham police with their inquiries.

    https://twitter.com/christiancalgie/status/1522993673822257152

    Well, Keir might need to start thinking about how best to get a successor into place

    It's the cover up that gets you. Watergate was a nothing burger till Nixon went full on Tonto about covering it up
    As I said earlier - Burnham is 5.2 on BF for next leader and as the evening wears on it looks more and more likely that there will be a leadership election way before Burnham becomes an MP.
    There is no way the left / Momentum are not eyeing up what is happening now and thinking they have a chance to recapture the Labour party especially as the circumstances make it easier for them to claim that SKS was a pious hypocrite. If you are Burnham, why would you get involved now?

    There is also the issue of the Staffs hospital scandal for Burnham, which will surely be dug up again.
  • No chance Rayner will be the next leader.

    Streeting, Reeves, Cooper I reckon
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,115
    ++++ BETTING POST +++++


    Kids, you can get 3.6 on BF for 2022 being year Starmer is no longer leader.


    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.183324545

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 20,409
    MrEd said:

    Farooq said:

    Aspire GAIN Tower Hamlets council from Labour with a majority of 3 (2 wards to declare, probably Lab holds)
    Rahman has his council to go with his mayoralty

    Brilliant
    You're literally cheering on somebody winning an election having been banned for fraud five years ago.

    This is the depths you have gone to.
    Its another nail in the Starmer coffin

    Voters just kicked Labour out for a bunch of Socialists whats not to like
    BJO.

    I am saying to you, whatever our differences, please don't cheer on a convicted fraudster winning an election. Please don't do that.
    He has served his time

    Please respect democracy

    Labour shouldnt be in this position

    SKS is useless

    Anyone defending him after yesterdays results must want Labour to lose is the only conclusion I can reach

    Tory enablers i think is the phrase
    I'm going to have to put you on the ignore list mate, I can't deal with people who are so far down the rabbit hole like this. Hope you'll be able to get out one day.
    SKS fans are the Tory enablers

    You want be able to ignore the GE result
    Do you think if Labour lose an election with SKS as Labour leader that your POV will be vindicated?
    Well, imagine how Labour people who didn't like Corbyn feel after he lost two.
    "Pleased" I dont have to imagine do I
    Champagne tonight @bigjohnowls or something more down with the proletariat?
    I have a can of Carling and 2 Cans of Fosters in the fridge next to the Moet that Mrs BJO drinks not me as that would literally make me a Champagne Socialist
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 33,484

    East Derry:

    2 DUP
    1 SF
    1 SDLP
    and Claire Sugden

    Fun fact - names of neighboring constituencies of Foyle and East Londonderry were specifically chosen by NI boundary commission, to give "parity of esteem" to the two communities.

    One dis-inclined to prefix the town's name with that of the English > British capital.

    The other usually dropping the prefix in common speech, but insisting or at least identifying with it for historico-political reasons.

    As someone whose heritage gives me a foot (or some other body part) in both camps, respect both points of view.

    Although squaring that in actual practice (such as when purchasing a bus ticket to get there from Belfast) can be challenging.

    It's all a bit ridiculous, given that Unionists typically refer to the place as Derry in any case. It's not the Apprentice Boys of Londonderry.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 33,484

    Legal eagles will have to chime in more but how much weight does "to the best of my knowledge" have?


    In conveyancing, it means that you may have made an extensive investigation into the matter.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 44,367
    F & ST

    3 SF
    1 UUP
    1DUP
  • “They were just there drinking,” said the source. “This made some people feel uncomfortable because they knew there was a risk we could be accused of breaking the rules.

    “Mary Foy and her staff were not working and I have not got a problem telling that to the police. They were just getting pissed. They were just there for a jolly. It’s not something that I am prepared to defend. They just thought it was pretty cool to hang out with the leader and deputy leader of the Labour Party. I wouldn’t say they were hammered but they were definitely a little bit tipsy by the end.”

    So another question for legal eagles, does Keir Starmer get fined for other people not following the rules? I am not sure how this works
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,115
    Sean_F said:

    I'm not convinced the DUP wouldn't do a deal in the end with Tories.

    They would for the right sum. I said that FF are the most corrupt political party in Western Europe. The DUP are the second most corrupt.

    They shot themselves in the foot, as usual, with the St. Andrews Agreement. Prior to that, the largest bloc nominated the First Minister. They insisted on changing that to the largest party. Had they stuck to the original agreement, the First Minister would come from 37 Unionists, rather than 35 Nationalists.
    imho they'll take a deal from Johnson if the price is right and he'll be happy to spend billions to get a deal. I don't follow it all in detail, but iirc the main block is the protocol over a border in the Irish Sea and that may well have been sorted by 2024.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 12,364
    I'm not sure that "Vote for Starmer to lead an unstable three-party coalition of Scottish Nationalists - and Liberal Democrats again!" is much of a vote winner. The prospect seemed to damage Miliband's chances in 2015.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Keir Starmer lives a pretty joyless life, having to diarise a walk back to a hotel after a work meal

    He is a lawyer Horse, he should have recognised how NOT documenting that might have left him vulnerable - which is exactly what has happened.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,577

    Sandpit said:

    Can someone please explain to me how our travesty of an entry into the Eurovision song contest is 3rd favourite in the betting?

    It's like a metro hairy biker doing bad karaoke after a skinful down on a Friday night, with the aid of a mate to cup his balls.

    Yet another failure, to recruit an established artist and write an annoyingly catchy pop tune.

    Yet the charts are full of British artists and writers.
    But none of those artists would want to sully their reputations by getting involved with crap like Eurovision. At best they'd be taken less seriously; at worst career death.
    It's Eurovision. No one cares.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 44,630

    “They were just there drinking,” said the source. “This made some people feel uncomfortable because they knew there was a risk we could be accused of breaking the rules.

    “Mary Foy and her staff were not working and I have not got a problem telling that to the police. They were just getting pissed. They were just there for a jolly. It’s not something that I am prepared to defend. They just thought it was pretty cool to hang out with the leader and deputy leader of the Labour Party. I wouldn’t say they were hammered but they were definitely a little bit tipsy by the end.”

    So another question for legal eagles, does Keir Starmer get fined for other people not following the rules? I am not sure how this works

    Rishi Sunak (and others) got fined because Mrs Johnson turned up with a birthday cake, to a meeting he was at anyway.
  • Sandpit said:

    “They were just there drinking,” said the source. “This made some people feel uncomfortable because they knew there was a risk we could be accused of breaking the rules.

    “Mary Foy and her staff were not working and I have not got a problem telling that to the police. They were just getting pissed. They were just there for a jolly. It’s not something that I am prepared to defend. They just thought it was pretty cool to hang out with the leader and deputy leader of the Labour Party. I wouldn’t say they were hammered but they were definitely a little bit tipsy by the end.”

    So another question for legal eagles, does Keir Starmer get fined for other people not following the rules? I am not sure how this works

    Rishi Sunak (and others) got fined because Mrs Johnson turned up with a birthday cake, to a meeting he was at anyway.
    Starmer in trouble then assuming source is accurate
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,115
    Adam Wagner
    @AdamWagner1
    ·
    1h
    Just seen this - don't see how it being pre-planned makes a difference to original reason, they were feeding staff & I assume volunteers.The fact it was pre-arranged with social distancing guidelines makes it more likely to be reasonably necessary not less

    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1522978254142980096

    ===

    This is gonna end in court isn't it?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 24,344

    “They were just there drinking,” said the source. “This made some people feel uncomfortable because they knew there was a risk we could be accused of breaking the rules.

    “Mary Foy and her staff were not working and I have not got a problem telling that to the police. They were just getting pissed. They were just there for a jolly. It’s not something that I am prepared to defend. They just thought it was pretty cool to hang out with the leader and deputy leader of the Labour Party. I wouldn’t say they were hammered but they were definitely a little bit tipsy by the end.”

    So another question for legal eagles, does Keir Starmer get fined for other people not following the rules? I am not sure how this works

    Didn't everyone present at the birthday cake get fined? Indeed, isn't that the big problem with Starmer calling for Sunak to resign? Some people think Sunak was a bit unlucky.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 20,409
    Andrew Neil
    @afneil
    ·
    1h
    Mail on Sunday exclusive: Keir Starmer’s beergate story blown apart by leaked memo
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 23,373

    Aspire GAIN Tower Hamlets council from Labour with a majority of 3 (2 wards to declare, probably Lab holds)
    Rahman has his council to go with his mayoralty

    Brilliant
    You're literally cheering on somebody winning an election having been banned for fraud five years ago.

    This is the depths you have gone to.
    Its another nail in the Starmer coffin

    Voters just kicked Labour out for a bunch of Socialists whats not to like
    BJO.

    I am saying to you, whatever our differences, please don't cheer on a convicted fraudster winning an election. Please don't do that.
    He has served his time

    Please respect democracy

    Labour shouldnt be in this position

    SKS is useless

    Anyone defending him after yesterdays results must want Labour to lose is the only conclusion I can reach

    Tory enablers i think is the phrase
    I'm going to have to put you on the ignore list mate, I can't deal with people who are so far down the rabbit hole like this. Hope you'll be able to get out one day.
    SKS fans are the Tory enablers

    You want be able to ignore the GE result
    This is like insects in A Bugs Life saying
    "you fired!"
    "No, you fired"
    "No, YOU fired"

    So glad I left the Labour Party. Hey guys, get a room...
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 12,085
    Foyle is only NI constituency still outstanding, with 3 seats left to elect
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    “They were just there drinking,” said the source. “This made some people feel uncomfortable because they knew there was a risk we could be accused of breaking the rules.

    “Mary Foy and her staff were not working and I have not got a problem telling that to the police. They were just getting pissed. They were just there for a jolly. It’s not something that I am prepared to defend. They just thought it was pretty cool to hang out with the leader and deputy leader of the Labour Party. I wouldn’t say they were hammered but they were definitely a little bit tipsy by the end.”

    So another question for legal eagles, does Keir Starmer get fined for other people not following the rules? I am not sure how this works

    I am not sure it matters what the legal position is. Just as it didn't for Boris or Rishi.

    It is the optics of it that looks bad.

    And the most irritating thing of all is the Daily Merkel will be cook-a-hoop.

    This, and HMQ banning Harry and Megan from the balcony, will be all their Christmases at once.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 7,721

    If the Sunday Times source is right, can't really disagree that it looks like they broke the rules.

    Oh dear Keir, oh dear me

    Perhaps. But here is a curiosity. SKS doesn't want Boris actually to resign over this, as a new Tory leader is more likely to win the next election. Boris doesn't want SKS to resign over this for the same reason+ if SKS resigns for rule breaking, the pressure on Boris to do the same is palpable.

    SFAICS the current stuff is actually about a mixture of mischief making (that's what media exist to do) and it suiting Boris's PR machine to continue having diversions which delay his day of reckoning. Confusion and delay are his big friends.

    Prediction: neither will resign or be forced out on account of Partygate/Beergate as it suits both Boris and SKS. It would be both or neither.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 44,430

    Adam Wagner
    @AdamWagner1
    ·
    1h
    Just seen this - don't see how it being pre-planned makes a difference to original reason, they were feeding staff & I assume volunteers.The fact it was pre-arranged with social distancing guidelines makes it more likely to be reasonably necessary not less

    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1522978254142980096

    ===

    This is gonna end in court isn't it?

    He seems to have changed his view.

    image
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 24,344
    I must say, I do have sympathy for plod on this. Not an enviable thing to have to adjudicate on. I bet Durham are cursing the Met for investigating Johnson et al.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Aspire GAIN Tower Hamlets council from Labour with a majority of 3 (2 wards to declare, probably Lab holds)
    Rahman has his council to go with his mayoralty

    Brilliant
    You're literally cheering on somebody winning an election having been banned for fraud five years ago.

    This is the depths you have gone to.
    Tribalism is a hell of a drug
    I am so very glad I have got out of it.

    Keir will have to resign if he gets fined and I would very strongly support such an action.
    Yes. My feeling is this is no breach and is being ramped by desperate opponents. But I'm happy to join them in calling for his resignation if they are right and I'm wrong.
    Have you seen the Sunday Times?
    Yes, I have, and I stand by both my views: that I think this isn't a breach of the rules and that I might be wrong and I'm happy to swing in behind your call for him to go if I am.
    It's no skin off my nose if he goes, I'm neither a supporter nor an opponent of his. But unless the police say otherwise, the ST article hasn't changed my mind.
    I think, what it will come down to ultimately is if the police deem it as necessary.

    People can call Starmer slippery for how he has portrayed things - but ultimately if there's no proof that this wasn't necessary for work, he will be okay.

    The fact the Mail are obsessed with this being at the end of the day suggests they know this, because I am not convinced that being at the end of the day (if it was, the memo has something afterwards), makes any difference. But I am not an expert on the rules.

    Very mixed blessing though, because a Starmer replacement will be somebody in his own image. The MPs will game it for sure.
    I have said this before Horse but, if you look at this from an organisational perspective, it seems very clear SKS is in real danger of getting a FPN, in fact way over 50%.

    Durham Police would have been absolutely desperate not to reopen this because it is a total lose-lose for them - if they issue SKS with a FPN (and Rayner), it has national political consequences and raises questions about their first investigation. If they don't, then they would get hounded forever and accused of favouritism etc. It would also put the Met in a difficult spot.

    So, for Durham to have reopen the investigation and, even more relevant, used the language they did suggests there is something that is as close to slam dunk as you can get that meant they had no choice.
  • Adam Wagner
    @AdamWagner1
    ·
    1h
    Just seen this - don't see how it being pre-planned makes a difference to original reason, they were feeding staff & I assume volunteers.The fact it was pre-arranged with social distancing guidelines makes it more likely to be reasonably necessary not less

    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1522978254142980096

    ===

    This is gonna end in court isn't it?

    To be honest, not sure why Johnson and Sunak didn't go to court
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,650

    Adam Wagner
    @AdamWagner1
    ·
    1h
    Just seen this - don't see how it being pre-planned makes a difference to original reason, they were feeding staff & I assume volunteers.The fact it was pre-arranged with social distancing guidelines makes it more likely to be reasonably necessary not less

    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1522978254142980096

    ===

    This is gonna end in court isn't it?

    Political and electoral suicide.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,985
    I think a big mistake Starmer made was calling for resignations because of an investigation rather than at least waiting to the end of that .

    The Tories will be enjoying this but ironically they don’t want Starmer to resign . We all know Johnson is utterly shameless and his right wing paper friends will do their best to spin things but if Starmer goes the first thing most of the public will ask is why is Johnson still there .

    What happens if he gets more FPNs , what if the Sue Gray report is damning .

  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Adam Wagner
    @AdamWagner1
    ·
    1h
    Just seen this - don't see how it being pre-planned makes a difference to original reason, they were feeding staff & I assume volunteers.The fact it was pre-arranged with social distancing guidelines makes it more likely to be reasonably necessary not less

    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1522978254142980096

    ===

    This is gonna end in court isn't it?

    He seems to have changed his view.

    image
    Wonder why?
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,201
    edited May 2022

    I'm not sure that "Vote for Starmer to lead an unstable three-party coalition of Scottish Nationalists - and Liberal Democrats again!" is much of a vote winner. The prospect seemed to damage Miliband's chances in 2015.

    Thank goodness we avoided all the "chaos with Ed Miliband".
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 20,409
    🟠Aspire 24 (+24)
    🔴Lab 19 (-23)
    🟢Grn 1 (+1)
    🔵Con 1 (-1)
    ⚪️Oth 0 (-1)

    🟠Aspire GAIN from Lab
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,097
    edited May 2022

    I'm not sure that "Vote for Starmer to lead an unstable three-party coalition of Scottish Nationalists - and Liberal Democrats again!" is much of a vote winner. The prospect seemed to damage Miliband's chances in 2015.

    Indeed! Not to mention that rotten 2017-2019 Parliament when we spent two and a half years of the morons in Westminster sending us all round the bend with their constant squabbling and failure to agree on anything.

    I personally think the country has had their fill of hung parliaments (which seemed like such an interesting idea in 2010) - I'd expect majority governments for a the next few decades - Con majority in 2023/2024 followed by Lab majority in 2028/2029 (and Lab majorities through the 2030s too probably)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 44,367

    Foyle is only NI constituency still outstanding, with 3 seats left to elect

    2 seats left to elect
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,650

    Adam Wagner
    @AdamWagner1
    ·
    1h
    Just seen this - don't see how it being pre-planned makes a difference to original reason, they were feeding staff & I assume volunteers.The fact it was pre-arranged with social distancing guidelines makes it more likely to be reasonably necessary not less

    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1522978254142980096

    ===

    This is gonna end in court isn't it?

    To be honest, not sure why Johnson and Sunak didn't go to court
    Because it would be suicidal electorally. We all suffered those evil rules, lawyering up to get off breaches would go down like a cup of cold sick
  • MrEd said:

    Adam Wagner
    @AdamWagner1
    ·
    1h
    Just seen this - don't see how it being pre-planned makes a difference to original reason, they were feeding staff & I assume volunteers.The fact it was pre-arranged with social distancing guidelines makes it more likely to be reasonably necessary not less

    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1522978254142980096

    ===

    This is gonna end in court isn't it?

    He seems to have changed his view.

    image
    Wonder why?
    Birthday party is clearly not necessary for work but arguably meal for campaign is. He seems to have been consistent.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 23,373
    So the Starmer revelations are truly funny. I said "where is the new evidence" as for a week and a half we had the same fact-free whine. And now we get new evidence - good!

    So I don't think the memo means a lot. Senior politicians have their diaries planned within an inch of their lives. Diarising a campaign event is entirely normal.

    But here now is Starmer's problem. Not the people who support Boris saying he looks shifty. The corner he has painted himself into. Because if the police think "ah fuck it" and fine him then according to his own rhetoric he needs to resign.

    TBH I think his only way out at that point is an offer of a suicide pact with Johnson - I will if you will. Johnson won't, then Starmer won't. Neither will have any credibility and we're in that Simpsons episode where Kang and Kodos are the only candidates for President.

    Love politics! Always entertaining lunacy!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 26,191
    Sean_F said:

    I'm not convinced the DUP wouldn't do a deal in the end with Tories.

    They would for the right sum. I said that FF are the most corrupt political party in Western Europe. The DUP are the second most corrupt.

    They shot themselves in the foot, as usual, with the St. Andrews Agreement. Prior to that, the largest bloc nominated the First Minister. They insisted on changing that to the largest party. Had they stuck to the original agreement, the First Minister would come from 37 Unionists, rather than 35 Nationalists.
    Would that allow the Alliance to be kingmakers?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    algarkirk said:

    If the Sunday Times source is right, can't really disagree that it looks like they broke the rules.

    Oh dear Keir, oh dear me

    Perhaps. But here is a curiosity. SKS doesn't want Boris actually to resign over this, as a new Tory leader is more likely to win the next election. Boris doesn't want SKS to resign over this for the same reason+ if SKS resigns for rule breaking, the pressure on Boris to do the same is palpable.

    SFAICS the current stuff is actually about a mixture of mischief making (that's what media exist to do) and it suiting Boris's PR machine to continue having diversions which delay his day of reckoning. Confusion and delay are his big friends.

    Prediction: neither will resign or be forced out on account of Partygate/Beergate as it suits both Boris and SKS. It would be both or neither.
    Disagree for two reasons (1) SKS is a lawyer and ex-head of the CPS - he will therefore be seen to be held to higher standards and (2) he will be forever branded as a hypocrite given the words he used.

    He should also go for being such a total idiot for making such remarks given the risk he was taking.
  • So the Starmer revelations are truly funny. I said "where is the new evidence" as for a week and a half we had the same fact-free whine. And now we get new evidence - good!

    So I don't think the memo means a lot. Senior politicians have their diaries planned within an inch of their lives. Diarising a campaign event is entirely normal.

    But here now is Starmer's problem. Not the people who support Boris saying he looks shifty. The corner he has painted himself into. Because if the police think "ah fuck it" and fine him then according to his own rhetoric he needs to resign.

    TBH I think his only way out at that point is an offer of a suicide pact with Johnson - I will if you will. Johnson won't, then Starmer won't. Neither will have any credibility and we're in that Simpsons episode where Kang and Kodos are the only candidates for President.

    Love politics! Always entertaining lunacy!

    Starmer should resign in that case because it is the right thing to do. And would mean a new leader could come in and win in 2024.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 26,191
    algarkirk said:

    If the Sunday Times source is right, can't really disagree that it looks like they broke the rules.

    Oh dear Keir, oh dear me

    Perhaps. But here is a curiosity. SKS doesn't want Boris actually to resign over this, as a new Tory leader is more likely to win the next election. Boris doesn't want SKS to resign over this for the same reason+ if SKS resigns for rule breaking, the pressure on Boris to do the same is palpable.

    SFAICS the current stuff is actually about a mixture of mischief making (that's what media exist to do) and it suiting Boris's PR machine to continue having diversions which delay his day of reckoning. Confusion and delay are his big friends.

    Prediction: neither will resign or be forced out on account of Partygate/Beergate as it suits both Boris and SKS. It would be both or neither.
    Pity. Starmer going and Johnson staying is a win/win for Labour.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 12,085
    edited May 2022
    What gets me is the sheer stupidity of Starmer & Rayner in participating, or organizing, or joining, or whatever doesn't matter, in an obviously problematic activity.

    Then NOT having the horse sense to temper their rhetoric just a touch re: Boris Johnson's party-hearty mileau.

    ESPECIALLY as there were and still are PLENTY of other folks to point out the PM's buffoonish scofflawery.

    One thing it suggests to yours truly, is that LOL does NOT have truly first-class political hacks & spin doctors advising him. Including to stop fucking up, at least THIS way.

    EDIT - This is all one big reason for applying to Keir Starmer my long-standing theory, that top-notch lawyers (in the courts) tend to be poor political campaigners AND strategists.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 7,721

    I'm not sure that "Vote for Starmer to lead an unstable three-party coalition of Scottish Nationalists - and Liberal Democrats again!" is much of a vote winner. The prospect seemed to damage Miliband's chances in 2015.

    It's quite likely, because of Scotland, that there will be no very good outcomes available at the GE. Unless the Tories can win, no-one can. So coalitions are the only options. The great voting public may well decide that the best option around is Labour tempered by the LDs. (Currently I agree) To achieve that assuming Scotland is no help will require an awful lot of Tories losing seats to the LDs. There is nowhere else for them to get them from. This makes the LD results this week quite interesting.

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 12,364
    This sounds a bit like theft.

    If a company goes into administration, with stock that it has received from suppliers but not paid for, it seems to be incredibly dishonest for investors in that company to buy it out of administration for peanuts and be able to take the stock without paying the suppliers for it. My sense of natural justice is that the stock cannot be considered an asset of the company that is in administration if it hasn't been paid for.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/may/07/paperchase-has-been-rescued-but-greetings-card-artists-are-losing-thousands
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    edited May 2022

    🟠Aspire 24 (+24)
    🔴Lab 19 (-23)
    🟢Grn 1 (+1)
    🔵Con 1 (-1)
    ⚪️Oth 0 (-1)

    🟠Aspire GAIN from Lab

    This is something else that hasn't been talked about but which is potentially a major headache for Labour, namely what is a sectarian party appealing to Labour's Muslim voters. Aspire is a far more dangerous threat than Respect - it's not headed by an opportunistic white guy who clearly doesn't share much of the values of Muslim people. I can easily Aspire going national and threatening Labour in the seats where it relies on the Muslim * vote to keep it in power.

    * there may be racial factors here as will - will Aspire be more Bangladeshi-focused or will it manage to pull in Pakistani voters etc.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 24,344
    algarkirk said:

    I'm not sure that "Vote for Starmer to lead an unstable three-party coalition of Scottish Nationalists - and Liberal Democrats again!" is much of a vote winner. The prospect seemed to damage Miliband's chances in 2015.

    It's quite likely, because of Scotland, that there will be no very good outcomes available at the GE. Unless the Tories can win, no-one can. So coalitions are the only options. The great voting public may well decide that the best option around is Labour tempered by the LDs. (Currently I agree) To achieve that assuming Scotland is no help will require an awful lot of Tories losing seats to the LDs. There is nowhere else for them to get them from. This makes the LD results this week quite interesting.

    Yes. We talk about how it's difficult for the Lib Dems to add many more than around 12 seats. But, the SNP show what is possible. It is not out of the question that the Lib Dems smash it out of the park.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 44,630

    Adam Wagner
    @AdamWagner1
    ·
    1h
    Just seen this - don't see how it being pre-planned makes a difference to original reason, they were feeding staff & I assume volunteers.The fact it was pre-arranged with social distancing guidelines makes it more likely to be reasonably necessary not less

    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1522978254142980096

    ===

    This is gonna end in court isn't it?

    To be honest, not sure why Johnson and Sunak didn't go to court
    I expected no-one to accept an FPN from Downing St, and all have their day in court with a good lawyer.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 3,201

    Can someone please explain to me how our travesty of an entry into the Eurovision song contest is 3rd favourite in the betting?

    It's like a metro hairy biker doing bad karaoke after a skinful down on a Friday night, with the aid of a mate to cup his balls.

    Ukraine will vote for us. Maybe some other Eastern Europeans because of Ukraine.

    Obviously Ukraine wins the whole thing and Russia comes dead last.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 23,373
    nico679 said:

    I think a big mistake Starmer made was calling for resignations because of an investigation rather than at least waiting to the end of that .

    The Tories will be enjoying this but ironically they don’t want Starmer to resign . We all know Johnson is utterly shameless and his right wing paper friends will do their best to spin things but if Starmer goes the first thing most of the public will ask is why is Johnson still there .

    What happens if he gets more FPNs , what if the Sue Gray report is damning .

    Make the point that Johnson has broken the laws he created and should resign because he lied to parliament about doing to. I always said lying to parliament was the biggie.

    If we come out of this with Johnson still as PM and Starmer gone as the Met slap out a stack of FPNs and the Grey report details Johnson partying at the "I sacked Cummings" event I will likely wee myself laughing.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 12,085
    edited May 2022

    Foyle is only NI constituency still outstanding, with 3 seats left to elect

    2 seats left to elect
    Who got the 3rd? Edit - Am guessing SF
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 24,344
    Sandpit said:

    Adam Wagner
    @AdamWagner1
    ·
    1h
    Just seen this - don't see how it being pre-planned makes a difference to original reason, they were feeding staff & I assume volunteers.The fact it was pre-arranged with social distancing guidelines makes it more likely to be reasonably necessary not less

    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1522978254142980096

    ===

    This is gonna end in court isn't it?

    To be honest, not sure why Johnson and Sunak didn't go to court
    I expected no-one to accept an FPN from Downing St, and all have their day in court with a good lawyer.
    No, fighting it would have made them look bad, even if they had a case. And, as it happens, it's created a nasty problem for Starmer.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,489
    If I'm being honest I find it difficult to believe anyone's going to come in to Labour and make much of a difference in changing their electoral trajectory.

    I'm sure they could find a candidate or two that'd take them massively backwards without trying too hard, but is the opposite true? Is there anyone out there who's truly going to supercharge them? I suspect most of the sensible candidates would get them pretty much exactly the same result Starmer in charge would, because where they end up is going to be more a focus of how sick of the Tories the country is more than how desperate everyone is for a Labour government.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 20,409

    Aspire GAIN Tower Hamlets council from Labour with a majority of 3 (2 wards to declare, probably Lab holds)
    Rahman has his council to go with his mayoralty

    Brilliant
    You're literally cheering on somebody winning an election having been banned for fraud five years ago.

    This is the depths you have gone to.
    Its another nail in the Starmer coffin

    Voters just kicked Labour out for a bunch of Socialists whats not to like
    BJO.

    I am saying to you, whatever our differences, please don't cheer on a convicted fraudster winning an election. Please don't do that.
    He has served his time

    Please respect democracy

    Labour shouldnt be in this position

    SKS is useless

    Anyone defending him after yesterdays results must want Labour to lose is the only conclusion I can reach

    Tory enablers i think is the phrase
    I'm going to have to put you on the ignore list mate, I can't deal with people who are so far down the rabbit hole like this. Hope you'll be able to get out one day.
    SKS fans are the Tory enablers

    You want be able to ignore the GE result
    This is like insects in A Bugs Life saying
    "you fired!"
    "No, you fired"
    "No, YOU fired"

    So glad I left the Labour Party. Hey guys, get a room...
    Me too.

    That I left that is

    Congratulations on your own result too
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 23,373

    So the Starmer revelations are truly funny. I said "where is the new evidence" as for a week and a half we had the same fact-free whine. And now we get new evidence - good!

    So I don't think the memo means a lot. Senior politicians have their diaries planned within an inch of their lives. Diarising a campaign event is entirely normal.

    But here now is Starmer's problem. Not the people who support Boris saying he looks shifty. The corner he has painted himself into. Because if the police think "ah fuck it" and fine him then according to his own rhetoric he needs to resign.

    TBH I think his only way out at that point is an offer of a suicide pact with Johnson - I will if you will. Johnson won't, then Starmer won't. Neither will have any credibility and we're in that Simpsons episode where Kang and Kodos are the only candidates for President.

    Love politics! Always entertaining lunacy!

    Starmer should resign in that case because it is the right thing to do. And would mean a new leader could come in and win in 2024.
    BJO can get Diane Abbott
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 12,085
    MrEd said:

    🟠Aspire 24 (+24)
    🔴Lab 19 (-23)
    🟢Grn 1 (+1)
    🔵Con 1 (-1)
    ⚪️Oth 0 (-1)

    🟠Aspire GAIN from Lab

    This is something else that hasn't been talked about but which is potentially a major headache for Labour, namely what is a sectarian party appealing to Labour's Muslim voters. Aspire is a far more dangerous threat than Respect - it's not headed by an opportunistic white guy who clearly doesn't share much of the values of Muslim people. I can easily Aspire going national and threatening Labour in the seats where it relies on the Muslim * vote to keep it in power.

    * there may be racial factors here as will - will Aspire be more Bangladeshi-focused or will it manage to pull in Pakistani voters etc.
    Somehow doubt finance will be much of a problem?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    MrEd said:

    🟠Aspire 24 (+24)
    🔴Lab 19 (-23)
    🟢Grn 1 (+1)
    🔵Con 1 (-1)
    ⚪️Oth 0 (-1)

    🟠Aspire GAIN from Lab

    This is something else that hasn't been talked about but which is potentially a major headache for Labour, namely what is a sectarian party appealing to Labour's Muslim voters. Aspire is a far more dangerous threat than Respect - it's not headed by an opportunistic white guy who clearly doesn't share much of the values of Muslim people. I can easily Aspire going national and threatening Labour in the seats where it relies on the Muslim * vote to keep it in power.

    * there may be racial factors here as will - will Aspire be more Bangladeshi-focused or will it manage to pull in Pakistani voters etc.
    Somehow doubt finance will be much of a problem?
    I doubt it....
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 3,201
    Either way, Labour is taking a hit now on the “I wanted to have a curry with my mates after work too but I held back” line of reasoning. I find this one more offensive than some (but not all) of the Number 10 stuff for exactly that reason. I won’t be alone.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 11,662
    Evening all :)

    Despite local elections and other distractions, the polling and electoral worlds rumble on.

    Two state elections coming up in Germany - Schleswig-Holstein tomorrow and Nordrhein-Westfalen next Sunday.

    Starting with the former and all the polling evidence suggests a strong CDU performance tomorrow with a poor poll for the SPD. The latest Forschunggruppe numbers for ZDF as follows (changes first from 2017 state election and then from 2021 Federal election):

    CDU: 38% (+6, +16)
    SPD: 18% (-9, -10)
    Greens: 18% (+5, unc)
    FDP: 8% (-4, -4.5)
    AfD: 6% (unc, -1)
    SSW (South Schleswig Voters): 6% (+3, +3)

    This suggests the current CDU/Green/FDP Coalition is going to increase its majority in the Landtag (currently they hold 44 of the 79 seats). This Jamaica Coalition is contrary to what is happening at Federal level but the chances of an alternative SPD/FDP/Green/SSW coalition look fairly remote.

    Nordrhein-Westfalen votes on May 15th. The political balance here is very different. The ruling CDU/FDP coalition has 100 seats in the Landtag but the opposition (SPD, Greens, AfD and Independents) have 99 - in 2017 the CDU polled 33% to the SPD's 31.2%

    The latest Forschunggruppe poll here as follows, again changes first from 2017 state election and then the 2021 Federal election.

    CDU: 30% (-3. +4)
    SPD: 28% (-3, -1)
    Greens: 18% (+12, +2)
    FDP: 7% (-6, -3.5)
    AfD: 7% (Unc. Unc)

    The governing coalition is in big trouble down from 45.5% to 37% and the question is whether an SPD/Green alternative coalition can be formed (46% on current numbers).

    It does look as though the Greens have continued to prosper despite being in Government and this may be due to their hawkish stance on Ukraine which could be playing well in the conservative north and west of Germany.

    Conversely poor polls for the FDP (economic issues?) and SPD (general disenchantment with Scholz?). The CDU are doing very well in the more conservative and rural northern state - their performance in NRW is more mixed.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 12,364
    algarkirk said:

    I'm not sure that "Vote for Starmer to lead an unstable three-party coalition of Scottish Nationalists - and Liberal Democrats again!" is much of a vote winner. The prospect seemed to damage Miliband's chances in 2015.

    It's quite likely, because of Scotland, that there will be no very good outcomes available at the GE. Unless the Tories can win, no-one can. So coalitions are the only options. The great voting public may well decide that the best option around is Labour tempered by the LDs. (Currently I agree) To achieve that assuming Scotland is no help will require an awful lot of Tories losing seats to the LDs. There is nowhere else for them to get them from. This makes the LD results this week quite interesting.
    Yes.

    If the electorate really don't want the Tories to form the next government, and don't want an unstable coalition reliant on Scottish Nationalists either, then the vote against the Tories has to be very decisive. If they're not convinced by Labour, and whoever leads Labour, then a Lib-Lab coalition could be the best available option.

    But they'd have to *really* not want the Tories to be in government to go for such an option. I don't think the situation is that bad yet for the Tories.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 21,953
    It's stating the obvious, but beergate saves Boris for now. Whether that's a good or a bad thing for the Labour Party's electoral hopes is impossible to say. Probably a good thing if we're honest. Scotland, Northern Ireland (I know the Tories don't run there) London and Wales will not forgive Boris even if he has an excellent run, and strengthens his Ministerial team considerably between now and the GE. And neither of those prospects is probable. The Tories' best hope is a fresh faced new leader.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 3,201
    edited May 2022
    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Adam Wagner
    @AdamWagner1
    ·
    1h
    Just seen this - don't see how it being pre-planned makes a difference to original reason, they were feeding staff & I assume volunteers.The fact it was pre-arranged with social distancing guidelines makes it more likely to be reasonably necessary not less

    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1522978254142980096

    ===

    This is gonna end in court isn't it?

    To be honest, not sure why Johnson and Sunak didn't go to court
    I expected no-one to accept an FPN from Downing St, and all have their day in court with a good lawyer.
    No, fighting it would have made them look bad, even if they had a case. And, as it happens, it's created a nasty problem for Starmer.
    I agree with you on politicians, but I was expecting a few officials to think about challenging on some of the marginal stuff n the basis they were swept up in it and the PM said it was ok. Maybe they have and we’ll never know.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,650
    Betting thoughts for next election.
    Reform UK have proved themselves to be nothing and nobody, that might make the Tories job of holding red wall gains and even further gains that much more likely even as the south deserts them
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,611

    So the Starmer revelations are truly funny. I said "where is the new evidence" as for a week and a half we had the same fact-free whine. And now we get new evidence - good!

    So I don't think the memo means a lot. Senior politicians have their diaries planned within an inch of their lives. Diarising a campaign event is entirely normal.

    But here now is Starmer's problem. Not the people who support Boris saying he looks shifty. The corner he has painted himself into. Because if the police think "ah fuck it" and fine him then according to his own rhetoric he needs to resign.

    TBH I think his only way out at that point is an offer of a suicide pact with Johnson - I will if you will. Johnson won't, then Starmer won't. Neither will have any credibility and we're in that Simpsons episode where Kang and Kodos are the only candidates for President.

    Love politics! Always entertaining lunacy!

    Boris won't agree to that. Yes, he wobbled significantly over PartyGate, but to vast swaths of his supporters Sir Keir's guilt = Boris's innocence. Boris has now achieved that. His enemies on both the Labour and Tory benches are routed. This is Boris's time (again).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 21,919
    Just seen that Diane Abbott has called for Keir Starmer to consider his position if the police issue him with a fine. Revenge of the Corbynistas?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,650
    Aspire shows one terrifying truth for Labour. A core constituent of their 'reliable' vote base defects en masse when given something to vote for. Could destroy them in London long term.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 24,344

    So the Starmer revelations are truly funny. I said "where is the new evidence" as for a week and a half we had the same fact-free whine. And now we get new evidence - good!

    So I don't think the memo means a lot. Senior politicians have their diaries planned within an inch of their lives. Diarising a campaign event is entirely normal.

    But here now is Starmer's problem. Not the people who support Boris saying he looks shifty. The corner he has painted himself into. Because if the police think "ah fuck it" and fine him then according to his own rhetoric he needs to resign.

    TBH I think his only way out at that point is an offer of a suicide pact with Johnson - I will if you will. Johnson won't, then Starmer won't. Neither will have any credibility and we're in that Simpsons episode where Kang and Kodos are the only candidates for President.

    Love politics! Always entertaining lunacy!

    Boris won't agree to that. Yes, he wobbled significantly over PartyGate, but to vast swaths of his supporters Sir Keir's guilt = Boris's innocence. Boris has now achieved that. His enemies on both the Labour and Tory benches are routed. This is Boris's time (again).
    I’m not sure that’s true. Johnson will hope it’s true, it’s probably his only hope. But I don’t see why the Tory MPs should give him the chance to find out.

    I think there’s been a psychological aspect to not ditching Johnson. I can understand that the Tories wouldn’t want to give Labour the satisfaction of seeing them get rid of Johnson. But that satisfaction wouldn’t be there if Starmer is fined.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 59,736

    If Starmer does get a fine, surely no question Johnson should get one for the wine work thingy that was pictured?

    And Cummings should as well given he admitted in front of the select committee he wasn't telling the truth to the police about his reasons for going to Durham...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 59,736
    Incidentally I know Sinn Fein came top, but am I the only one thinking the big winners in NI are the Alliance?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 44,367
    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally I know Sinn Fein came top, but am I the only one thinking the big winners in NI are the Alliance?

    "Rebel Alliance!" :lol:
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 20,409

    Aspire shows one terrifying truth for Labour. A core constituent of their 'reliable' vote base defects en masse when given something to vote for. Could destroy them in London long term.

    Yes
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,248
    edited May 2022

    nico679 said:

    I think a big mistake Starmer made was calling for resignations because of an investigation rather than at least waiting to the end of that .

    The Tories will be enjoying this but ironically they don’t want Starmer to resign . We all know Johnson is utterly shameless and his right wing paper friends will do their best to spin things but if Starmer goes the first thing most of the public will ask is why is Johnson still there .

    What happens if he gets more FPNs , what if the Sue Gray report is damning .

    Make the point that Johnson has broken the laws he created and should resign because he lied to parliament about doing to. I always said lying to parliament was the biggie.

    If we come out of this with Johnson still as PM and Starmer gone as the Met slap out a stack of FPNs and the Grey report details Johnson partying at the "I sacked Cummings" event I will likely wee myself laughing.
    Sorry that's rubbish - most ordinary people dont give a chit he lied to parliament , its that he made laws for them he could not keep himself.So he should go and Starmer should go given he voted for them as well.Maybe in future it will mean politicians think twice about imposing stupid laws on people because its the "right thing to do"
  • stodgestodge Posts: 11,662
    Quickly totting up the London Councillor scores (missing Croydon and Havering) we have:

    Labour 1,110
    Conservative 348
    Liberal Democrat 176
    Aspire 24
    Greens 16
    Others 12
    Vacancies: 9 (three countermanded elections due to candidate deaths)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 26,191

    algarkirk said:

    I'm not sure that "Vote for Starmer to lead an unstable three-party coalition of Scottish Nationalists - and Liberal Democrats again!" is much of a vote winner. The prospect seemed to damage Miliband's chances in 2015.

    It's quite likely, because of Scotland, that there will be no very good outcomes available at the GE. Unless the Tories can win, no-one can. So coalitions are the only options. The great voting public may well decide that the best option around is Labour tempered by the LDs. (Currently I agree) To achieve that assuming Scotland is no help will require an awful lot of Tories losing seats to the LDs. There is nowhere else for them to get them from. This makes the LD results this week quite interesting.
    Yes.

    If the electorate really don't want the Tories to form the next government, and don't want an unstable coalition reliant on Scottish Nationalists either, then the vote against the Tories has to be very decisive. If they're not convinced by Labour, and whoever leads Labour, then a Lib-Lab coalition could be the best available option.

    But they'd have to *really* not want the Tories to be in government to go for such an option. I don't think the situation is that bad yet for the Tories.
    The parameters are so wide this time though.
    Suppose we are 2 weeks from voting and Labour still leads by 4%. Not entirely beyond imagining.
    The public doesn't want an unstable coalition, particularly with the SNP.
    There's got to be an eight point swing in either direction to get a likelihood of majority government.
    Can you get that many to flip? It may very well happen whether anyone wants it to or not.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 44,367

    Foyle is only NI constituency still outstanding, with 3 seats left to elect

    2 seats left to elect
    Who got the 3rd? Edit - Am guessing SF
    2 SF
    1 SDLP
    at the moment
  • TimSTimS Posts: 4,849
    edited May 2022
    SKS should give a press conference tomorrow, Angela by his side, promising that they will resign as leader and deputy leader if the police conclude rules were broken, because “it’s the right and proper thing to do”.

    Would be the ultimate act of kamikaze.

    I am assuming/hoping Wes hasn’t got any lockdown breaches in his history.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 44,630

    This sounds a bit like theft.

    If a company goes into administration, with stock that it has received from suppliers but not paid for, it seems to be incredibly dishonest for investors in that company to buy it out of administration for peanuts and be able to take the stock without paying the suppliers for it. My sense of natural justice is that the stock cannot be considered an asset of the company that is in administration if it hasn't been paid for.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/may/07/paperchase-has-been-rescued-but-greetings-card-artists-are-losing-thousands

    I imagine it could be theft, if there was evidence that there was no intention to pay for the goods - for example, by planning a larger-than-usual order, with the intent to call in the administrators immediately it was delivered.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 33,697

    Aspire shows one terrifying truth for Labour. A core constituent of their 'reliable' vote base defects en masse when given something to vote for. Could destroy them in London long term.

    Sunny Handal did an excellent thread on this. There are ominous signs for Labour amidst the London celebrations. Voting for them by en bloc ethnic minorities is coming to an end


    “Some quick thoughts on Labour getting thrashed in Tower Hamlets, Harrow and Croydon.

    These parts of London have one thing in common - large proportion of ethnic minorities.

    And they rebelled against Labour”

    https://twitter.com/sunny_hundal/status/1522910473011740672?s=21&t=vcK9-hydFRDbGJHNdWBKeQ
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 44,367
    TimS said:

    SKS should give a press conference tomorrow, Angela by his side, promising that they will resign as leader and deputy leader of the police conclude rules were broken, because “it’s the right and proper thing to do”.

    Would be the ultimate act of kamikaze.

    Nah, that was Ten-Go!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Ten-Go
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 59,736
    Andy_JS said:

    Just seen that Diane Abbott has called for Keir Starmer to consider his position if the police issue him with a fine. Revenge of the Corbynistas?

    TBF, that is merely a statement of the obvious. He will have to.

    And would have to go. As the serial liar and law breaker in Downing Street has to go.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 33,697
    CurryandbeerandgettingtipsyGate shows there may be a Third Iron Law of Covid

    If you are a politician, never exult and exploit your opponent’s breaking of Covid lockdown laws, as you almost inevitably did the same
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 23,373

    It's stating the obvious, but beergate saves Boris for now. Whether that's a good or a bad thing for the Labour Party's electoral hopes is impossible to say. Probably a good thing if we're honest. Scotland, Northern Ireland (I know the Tories don't run there) London and Wales will not forgive Boris even if he has an excellent run, and strengthens his Ministerial team considerably between now and the GE. And neither of those prospects is probable. The Tories' best hope is a fresh faced new leader.

    For now - yes. But as his own FPNs pile in. For him partying in the flat doing Kareoke. For the BYOB party. With pictures. I still struggle to see how his own position remains tenable.
  • franklynfranklyn Posts: 282
    Can I please ask Scottish members of the PB readership how the feel Nicola's congratulatory message to Sinn Fein will go down in Protestant quarters of the West of Scotland. I know that in democratic politics we always congratulate winners, but she could easily have sent a private message. Is she losing her normally skilful touch?
This discussion has been closed.