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The big fact about the next election – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Well, this wasn’t predictable was it…

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-61363969
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Roger said:

    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    He's committed a cardinal sin. Being a plausible Labour PM.
    However. He isn't very good.
    Boris is a tactical political savant unmatched.
    Unfortunately, I fear he's also a strategic buffoon.
    I held no truck with the idea we were headed for a '97 before this weekend. No I'm not so sure. It may not happen next time, but Big Dog is leading the Tories into the wilderness for a generation.
    There is no suggestion that the fact that they've lost 1 in 5 councillors has even been cause for a moments reflection.
    Just destroy the prevailing threat as it presents.
    Just like Sunak.
    Meanwhile, his own popularity just falls.
    Because it can't actually just be that he might possibly be at all inadequate.

    This is the correct analysis.

    Hubris (along with corruption, incompetence and deceit) has overtaken the Tories.

    I see a tweet was issued by Keir Starmer at 10:13pm of the night in question, including photos from his campaign visit. So *somebody* was working.
    If you remember back to The Player, when he’s walking away from the police station, the police watching him from the window suspecting he’s guilty, but they didn’t have the evidence. The clear difference between the beergate and cake party is the difference in evidence. The government paid a photographer to prove to the police they had stopped work for a bit of socialising. The police will never have that in the Starmer case. He’ll get exonerated, a boost from the exoneration, and the story will be dead of any use in future.

    You only have to read the story on front the Sunday Times to see how Starmer gets off. Beneath the juicy headline which draws you in, the star witness for the LOTOcide says some people didn’t work through the event, they just socialised. That means some did. And on even the ones who didn’t, the police will ask the witness, do you have any evidence to prove your claim against those who didn’t?

    The people who we know really partied in lockdown in Downing Street were civil servants and SPADS. What Boris and Sunak done at the cake eating is not worthy of a Fixed penalty notice, they ended up with one for two reasons, media reveal the actual proper parties drew a wide ranging investigation into what had gone on, and they hired a photographer to give the police perfect evidence for the FPN they got.
    I fed your comment into GPT-3 and asked it to expand it. Here goes:

    So I think we can assume that the party Starmer went to was attended by civil servants, not MPs or ministers. We also know that Starmer himself is on record as saying he didn't go to the party, but he's a civil servant, so it doesn't matter if he lied about it, he's still protected by civil service privilege.

    But what else can we say?

    Starmer wasn’t there. The people who were there were civil servants and SPADS.

    And if you look at the picture, you'll see that they're all smiling.

    That means they had fun. They had a laugh. They celebrated.

    They didn't have to work. They didn't have to stay late.

    And now they've got a photo of them doing it.

    That's why they don't care about the cake.

    Because no one knows about the cake.

    No one knows about the cake because the press isn't interested in the cake.

    All they want to know is who went to the party.

    Who knew about the party?

    Why did they let Starmer go to the party?

    What were they celebrating?

    When did they celebrate?

    Did they celebrate before or after the cake?

    Was that written sober? Just asking.....
    I’ve been out drinking in the sun ALL DAY so would be a hypocrite to ask that 🙂
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,955

    Rob, have you seen the you.com search engine where they have a code search subsection which hooks into i believe copilot (which was built on GPT3 tech) to write code for you query on the fly?

    So rather than search and you get your stackoverflow results, you get dynamic functions returned.

    I have not, but it's a logical step forward from some of the things I've seen on VS.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Crowdfunding military equipment is such a boneheaded idea I can't even believe it's really a thing. That's a doorway into a special kind of darkness that goes by the name of anarchy. I would shut that down in a second.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    rcs1000 said:

    Rob, have you seen the you.com search engine where they have a code search subsection which hooks into i believe copilot (which was built on GPT3 tech) to write code for you query on the fly?

    So rather than search and you get your stackoverflow results, you get dynamic functions returned.

    I have not, but it's a logical step forward from some of the things I've seen on VS.
    I am sure we will soon have similar for images thanks to dalle2 (and future developments). Not sure I fancy being in the stock image business.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    He's committed a cardinal sin. Being a plausible Labour PM.
    However. He isn't very good.
    Boris is a tactical political savant unmatched.
    Unfortunately, I fear he's also a strategic buffoon.
    I held no truck with the idea we were headed for a '97 before this weekend. No I'm not so sure. It may not happen next time, but Big Dog is leading the Tories into the wilderness for a generation.
    There is no suggestion that the fact that they've lost 1 in 5 councillors has even been cause for a moments reflection.
    Just destroy the prevailing threat as it presents.
    Just like Sunak.
    Meanwhile, his own popularity just falls.
    Because it can't actually just be that he might possibly be at all inadequate.

    This is the correct analysis.

    Hubris (along with corruption, incompetence and deceit) has overtaken the Tories.

    I see a tweet was issued by Keir Starmer at 10:13pm of the night in question, including photos from his campaign visit. So *somebody* was working.
    If you remember back to The Player, when he’s walking away from the police station, the police watching him from the window suspecting he’s guilty, but they didn’t have the evidence. The clear difference between the beergate and cake party is the difference in evidence. The government paid a photographer to prove to the police they had stopped work for a bit of socialising. The police will never have that in the Starmer case. He’ll get exonerated, a boost from the exoneration, and the story will be dead of any use in future.

    You only have to read the story on front the Sunday Times to see how Starmer gets off. Beneath the juicy headline which draws you in, the star witness for the LOTOcide says some people didn’t work through the event, they just socialised. That means some did. And on even the ones who didn’t, the police will ask the witness, do you have any evidence to prove your claim against those who didn’t?

    The people who we know really partied in lockdown in Downing Street were civil servants and SPADS. What Boris and Sunak done at the cake eating is not worthy of a Fixed penalty notice, they ended up with one for two reasons, media reveal the actual proper parties drew a wide ranging investigation into what had gone on, and they hired a photographer to give the police perfect evidence for the FPN they got.
    I fed your comment into GPT-3 and asked it to expand it. Here goes:

    So I think we can assume that the party Starmer went to was attended by civil servants, not MPs or ministers. We also know that Starmer himself is on record as saying he didn't go to the party, but he's a civil servant, so it doesn't matter if he lied about it, he's still protected by civil service privilege.

    But what else can we say?

    Starmer wasn’t there. The people who were there were civil servants and SPADS.

    And if you look at the picture, you'll see that they're all smiling.

    That means they had fun. They had a laugh. They celebrated.

    They didn't have to work. They didn't have to stay late.

    And now they've got a photo of them doing it.

    That's why they don't care about the cake.

    Because no one knows about the cake.

    No one knows about the cake because the press isn't interested in the cake.

    All they want to know is who went to the party.

    Who knew about the party?

    Why did they let Starmer go to the party?

    What were they celebrating?

    When did they celebrate?

    Did they celebrate before or after the cake?

    Was that written sober? Just asking.....
    That was written by GPT-3.
    Your creative genius isn’t needed anymore Roger - you’ve been replaced by a 1.99 app on Robert’s phone.

    But good news. We’ve had a wip round, and got you a three month MUBI subscription. 🙂
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,559
    Foyle - SDLP elected 4th seat, now down to DUP vs UUP
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,721
    No Thursday night by-elections? God truly has abandoned the people of Northern Ireland. From BBC

    The system in Northern Ireland means that there are no by-elections for councils, instead if someone resigns their party can co-opt a replacement.

    Anyone elected as an MLA must resign from council, so there are plenty of changes coming.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,265

    Foyle - SDLP elected 4th seat, now down to DUP vs UUP

    Yep, Sky updated - but not the BBC!
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,807
    edited May 2022
    Being a contributor to the PB comments section I naturally..... read every comment on this thread, and I am so grateful for all of them. Thank you all!
    The discussion is now closed, but please feel free to continue your discussions in the comments sections of any other threads on this site.


    How pleasant.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Farooq said:

    carnforth said:

    dixiedean said:

    He's committed a cardinal sin. Being a plausible Labour PM.
    However. He isn't very good.
    Boris is a tactical political savant unmatched.
    Unfortunately, I fear he's also a strategic buffoon.
    I held no truck with the idea we were headed for a '97 before this weekend. No I'm not so sure. It may not happen next time, but Big Dog is leading the Tories into the wilderness for a generation.
    There is no suggestion that the fact that they've lost 1 in 5 councillors has even been cause for a moments reflection.
    Just destroy the prevailing threat as it presents.
    Just like Sunak.
    Meanwhile, his own popularity just falls.
    Because it can't actually just be that he might possibly be at all inadequate.

    This is the correct analysis.

    Hubris (along with corruption, incompetence and deceit) has overtaken the Tories.

    I see a tweet was issued by Keir Starmer at 10:13pm of the night in question, including photos from his campaign visit. So *somebody* was working.
    If they tweeted that from a room in the hotel where multiple people were working together, than would be relevant. If they were working on some late night social media posts on their own in their room before turning in, it would not.

    This whole thing is very silly though. Neither Boris nor Keir should resign.
    Even if exonerated by this investigation, in many ways that should send out dangerous vibes to the electorate. We all know what Starmer is - no FPN sheds light on it BIG TIME

    No one will believe him if he claimed he has had sex with the light on, so if he could see what I’ve got in boxes under my bed he’d be traumatised.

    Some people actually worked through that “event” at least one carried on afterwards. For that reason and that reason alone Starmer’s popularity ratings really ought to plummet, if there is any sense in the electorate - what a stupendously boring fart.

    We all know what he is, that’s exactly why he fails to get a FPN.
    I really have no idea what you mean
    Make a sentence using the following words. Fart. Boring. Very very very very very very very very very very very very very very

  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,952
    edited May 2022
    If Starmo resigns then Bozzatron has to too. If Starmo goes but Bozza doesn’t, you end up with fresh faced ladies Reeves or Phillipson against dishonourable damaged goods ageing bloke Bozza.

    Ergo, in game theory terms the Tories must ensure Starmo doesn’t resign unless Bozza does too, which he won’t.

    Tricky one. @HYUFD is right.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,952

    carnforth said:

    dixiedean said:

    He's committed a cardinal sin. Being a plausible Labour PM.
    However. He isn't very good.
    Boris is a tactical political savant unmatched.
    Unfortunately, I fear he's also a strategic buffoon.
    I held no truck with the idea we were headed for a '97 before this weekend. No I'm not so sure. It may not happen next time, but Big Dog is leading the Tories into the wilderness for a generation.
    There is no suggestion that the fact that they've lost 1 in 5 councillors has even been cause for a moments reflection.
    Just destroy the prevailing threat as it presents.
    Just like Sunak.
    Meanwhile, his own popularity just falls.
    Because it can't actually just be that he might possibly be at all inadequate.

    This is the correct analysis.

    Hubris (along with corruption, incompetence and deceit) has overtaken the Tories.

    I see a tweet was issued by Keir Starmer at 10:13pm of the night in question, including photos from his campaign visit. So *somebody* was working.
    If they tweeted that from a room in the hotel where multiple people were working together, than would be relevant. If they were working on some late night social media posts on their own in their room before turning in, it would not.

    This whole thing is very silly though. Neither Boris nor Keir should resign.
    Even if exonerated by this investigation, in many ways that should send out dangerous vibes to the electorate. We all know what Starmer is - no FPN sheds light on it BIG TIME

    No one will believe him if he claimed he has had sex with the light on, so if he could see what I’ve got in boxes under my bed he’d be traumatised.

    Some people actually worked through that “event” at least one carried on afterwards. For that reason and that reason alone Starmer’s popularity ratings really ought to plummet, if there is any sense in the electorate - what a stupendously boring fart.

    We all know what he is, that’s exactly why he fails to get a FPN.
    Can you repeat that, this time in English?
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,149
    edited May 2022
    On topic, IDK.

    Boris is audacious and cares about nothing except himself. Is there really *nothing* he could offer one of the smaller parties that Kier Starmer wouldn't?

    - SNP: Independence referendum
    - LD: Referendum on PR and/or rejoining EU
    - DUP: Ban dancing, digital watches and most kinds of hats, or whatever it is they want
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,141
    edited May 2022

    Tomorrow's Mail on Sunday not good for Starmer and Rayner

    https://twitter.com/ChrisClarksonMP/status/1522987238480564224?t=w2oLmW-oxmwnv6ewXcfWmw&s=19

    Is this a conspiracy by Corbynites and the left to discredited Starmer for his move to the centre ?

    Well someone leaked it and someone must have a motive.

    One thought.

    If you believe that something genuinely seriously bad has happened, you take it to the police.

    If you think that something that looks seriously bad (but isn't) has happened, you take it to the papers.

    I don't know if what happened in Durham broke the rules that applied at that time or not. And I'm of the view that if Starmer, Rayner or others get fined, their position is untenable. If that means that they can take down Johnson on their way out, that's a valuable final service for a grateful nation.

    But it's also possible that Labour's biggest sin is to fail to bow down before the gods of the Daily Mail. And whilst that's definitely a problem for a party that wants to win elections, I can't help but admire them for that. Giving in to bullies never works in the long run.
    It is quite a disturbing idea that Dacre can assist in taking down worrysome politicians on Johnson's behalf. Cameron, May, Sunak, Starmer, the next Labour Leader, the next Cabinet Minister who outshines Johnson and all their successors until Johnson decides to call it a day.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,331
    biggles said:

    Crickey...

    Ian Goodfellow, Apple’s director of machine learning, is leaving the company due to its return to work policy. In a note to staff, he said “I believe strongly that more flexibility would have been the best policy for my team.” He was likely the company’s most cited ML expert.

    He’s seen the future, and he and I concur.
    Yes, I know of two people who have left companies with required in-office attendance for companies that offer pure wfh.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,955

    On topic, IDK.

    Boris is audacious and cares about nothing except himself. Is there really *nothing* he could offer one of the smaller parties that Kier Starmer wouldn't?

    - SNP: Independence referendum
    - LD: Referendum on PR and/or rejoining EU
    - DUP: Ban dancing, digital watches and most kinds of hats, or whatever it is they want

    EU referendum?

    Jesus.

    Can you imagine if he gave them that, and then rejoin won?
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,149
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic, IDK.

    Boris is audacious and cares about nothing except himself. Is there really *nothing* he could offer one of the smaller parties that Kier Starmer wouldn't?

    - SNP: Independence referendum
    - LD: Referendum on PR and/or rejoining EU
    - DUP: Ban dancing, digital watches and most kinds of hats, or whatever it is they want

    EU referendum?

    Jesus.

    Can you imagine if he gave them that, and then rejoin won?
    Good for the economy, and he doesn't particularly care either way.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Roger said:

    Tomorrow's Mail on Sunday not good for Starmer and Rayner

    https://twitter.com/ChrisClarksonMP/status/1522987238480564224?t=w2oLmW-oxmwnv6ewXcfWmw&s=19

    Is this a conspiracy by Corbynites and the left to discredited Starmer for his move to the centre ?

    Well someone leaked it and someone must have a motive.

    Is there anything untoward? It's exactly the sort of itinery everyone who works on location would get daily. How else would they do it?
    What labour should really worry about is who is leaking this and their motive

    I have already suggested this could be a reaction from Corbynites and the left in response to Starmer's move to the centre

    The could just have much wide implications for labour
    It’s all very cloak and dagger . I suspect Starmer will be gone soon which personally I feel is a shame .
    It smells like a story cooked up in Tory HQ, eagerly promoted by Tory-friendly media, and now the Labour far left are joining in.

    Not a crowd I’d personally like any part of.
    Some Corbyn fans would rather see Labour lose a GE than have the non pure Starmer win. It really pisses me off when some in Labour won’t accept the imperfect but bearable because unless any leader has passes the left purity test they’d rather just watch the Tories destroy the country .
    SKS fans won't accept he is shit and that the Tories will sail to another victory under him.

    The only people with a purity test is Starmer and co. He has spent more time attacking Socialists for purely factional reasons than attacking the Tories.

    Suck it up.
    There once was a governor called Clinton
    Getting nowhere in his campaign
    Along came a whistblower
    Saying he flashed her his todger
    And he never looked back again

    Stop trying to make Starmer seem somehow interesting, like a bad boy, that’s not your role here - it’s only going to do him good I warn you.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,141

    Roger said:

    Tomorrow's Mail on Sunday not good for Starmer and Rayner

    https://twitter.com/ChrisClarksonMP/status/1522987238480564224?t=w2oLmW-oxmwnv6ewXcfWmw&s=19

    Is this a conspiracy by Corbynites and the left to discredited Starmer for his move to the centre ?

    Well someone leaked it and someone must have a motive.

    Is there anything untoward? It's exactly the sort of itinery everyone who works on location would get daily. How else would they do it?
    What labour should really worry about is who is leaking this and their motive

    I have already suggested this could be a reaction from Corbynites and the left in response to Starmer's move to the centre

    The could just have much wide implications for labour
    Your palpable joy that after Starmer's imminent defenestration he might be replaced by an unelectable Corbynista to face Johnson in a couple of years is quite disturbing. Firstly a Government needs to be kept in check by a competent Opposition and secondly events could go wrong to the point that we see Prime Minister Rebecca Long-Bailey.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    carnforth said:

    dixiedean said:

    He's committed a cardinal sin. Being a plausible Labour PM.
    However. He isn't very good.
    Boris is a tactical political savant unmatched.
    Unfortunately, I fear he's also a strategic buffoon.
    I held no truck with the idea we were headed for a '97 before this weekend. No I'm not so sure. It may not happen next time, but Big Dog is leading the Tories into the wilderness for a generation.
    There is no suggestion that the fact that they've lost 1 in 5 councillors has even been cause for a moments reflection.
    Just destroy the prevailing threat as it presents.
    Just like Sunak.
    Meanwhile, his own popularity just falls.
    Because it can't actually just be that he might possibly be at all inadequate.

    This is the correct analysis.

    Hubris (along with corruption, incompetence and deceit) has overtaken the Tories.

    I see a tweet was issued by Keir Starmer at 10:13pm of the night in question, including photos from his campaign visit. So *somebody* was working.
    If they tweeted that from a room in the hotel where multiple people were working together, than would be relevant. If they were working on some late night social media posts on their own in their room before turning in, it would not.

    This whole thing is very silly though. Neither Boris nor Keir should resign.
    Even if exonerated by this investigation, in many ways that should send out dangerous vibes to the electorate. We all know what Starmer is - no FPN sheds light on it BIG TIME

    No one will believe him if he claimed he has had sex with the light on, so if he could see what I’ve got in boxes under my bed he’d be traumatised.

    Some people actually worked through that “event” at least one carried on afterwards. For that reason and that reason alone Starmer’s popularity ratings really ought to plummet, if there is any sense in the electorate - what a stupendously boring fart.

    We all know what he is, that’s exactly why he fails to get a FPN.
    Can you repeat that, this time in English?
    Do you think there’s people out there this Saturday night Anabob, wearing Starmer masks, and their partners asking: give it to me, like a Big Dog.

    No, there really isn’t. Not one.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,003
    kle4 said:

    No Thursday night by-elections? God truly has abandoned the people of Northern Ireland. From BBC

    The system in Northern Ireland means that there are no by-elections for councils, instead if someone resigns their party can co-opt a replacement.

    Anyone elected as an MLA must resign from council, so there are plenty of changes coming.

    In NI the problem would be, for instance, how to replace a departing DUP member in a 55% Catholic constituency.
  • Options
    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,708
    kle4 said:

    Saw Zelensky promoting a fundraising initiative for Ukraine - what's interesting is the site gives options on 'direction of donation' eg defence and demining, medical aid, rebuild Ukraine. I wonder if some people, fired up with anger about the invasion, whilst happy to support various charity initiatives, actually would prefer the idea they are funding munitions, the opposite of the usual response to an aid appeal.

    https://u24.gov.ua/

    This is what I've been looking for.
    And you're right. I DON'T want my donation being used for namby-pamby things like clothes and medical supplies.
    I want them to use it to buy guns.
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,301
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic, IDK.

    Boris is audacious and cares about nothing except himself. Is there really *nothing* he could offer one of the smaller parties that Kier Starmer wouldn't?

    - SNP: Independence referendum
    - LD: Referendum on PR and/or rejoining EU
    - DUP: Ban dancing, digital watches and most kinds of hats, or whatever it is they want

    EU referendum?

    Jesus.

    Can you imagine if he gave them that, and then rejoin won?
    It would be eye-wateringly hilarious to begin with. But I don't think even Boris could be that cynical and the ensuing civil war might take some of the merriment out of it.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,055
    edited May 2022
    Farooq said:

    Crowdfunding military equipment is such a boneheaded idea I can't even believe it's really a thing. That's a doorway into a special kind of darkness that goes by the name of anarchy. I would shut that down in a second.

    Feed the guns and help to end the war.

    image
  • Options
    ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Applicant said:

    This is an opinion, not a fact. In the event of a hung parliament, what happens next will depend on exact seat counts.

    Just like in 2010.

    I disagree (and agree with Mike).

    (...)

    The Conservatives need to win 314 or more in 2024. Anything less and they're out.
    So you agree with me. Mike's thesis is that they need to win 326 seats or they're out...
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,952

    carnforth said:

    dixiedean said:

    He's committed a cardinal sin. Being a plausible Labour PM.
    However. He isn't very good.
    Boris is a tactical political savant unmatched.
    Unfortunately, I fear he's also a strategic buffoon.
    I held no truck with the idea we were headed for a '97 before this weekend. No I'm not so sure. It may not happen next time, but Big Dog is leading the Tories into the wilderness for a generation.
    There is no suggestion that the fact that they've lost 1 in 5 councillors has even been cause for a moments reflection.
    Just destroy the prevailing threat as it presents.
    Just like Sunak.
    Meanwhile, his own popularity just falls.
    Because it can't actually just be that he might possibly be at all inadequate.

    This is the correct analysis.

    Hubris (along with corruption, incompetence and deceit) has overtaken the Tories.

    I see a tweet was issued by Keir Starmer at 10:13pm of the night in question, including photos from his campaign visit. So *somebody* was working.
    If they tweeted that from a room in the hotel where multiple people were working together, than would be relevant. If they were working on some late night social media posts on their own in their room before turning in, it would not.

    This whole thing is very silly though. Neither Boris nor Keir should resign.
    Even if exonerated by this investigation, in many ways that should send out dangerous vibes to the electorate. We all know what Starmer is - no FPN sheds light on it BIG TIME

    No one will believe him if he claimed he has had sex with the light on, so if he could see what I’ve got in boxes under my bed he’d be traumatised.

    Some people actually worked through that “event” at least one carried on afterwards. For that reason and that reason alone Starmer’s popularity ratings really ought to plummet, if there is any sense in the electorate - what a stupendously boring fart.

    We all know what he is, that’s exactly why he fails to get a FPN.
    Can you repeat that, this time in English?
    Do you think there’s people out there this Saturday night Anabob, wearing Starmer masks, and their partners asking: give it to me, like a Big Dog.

    No, there really isn’t. Not one.
    Ah, now that clears it up! (Maybe…)
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,340

    biggles said:

    Crickey...

    Ian Goodfellow, Apple’s director of machine learning, is leaving the company due to its return to work policy. In a note to staff, he said “I believe strongly that more flexibility would have been the best policy for my team.” He was likely the company’s most cited ML expert.

    He’s seen the future, and he and I concur.
    Yes, I know of two people who have left companies with required in-office attendance for companies that offer pure wfh.
    The worry, of course, is those who can’t vote with their feet. I think we need a real push for union membership. (I say this as someone broadly on the right, but who has always been in a union).
  • Options
    ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    On topic, IDK.

    Boris is audacious and cares about nothing except himself. Is there really *nothing* he could offer one of the smaller parties that Kier Starmer wouldn't?

    - SNP: Independence referendum
    - LD: Referendum on PR and/or rejoining EU
    - DUP: Ban dancing, digital watches and most kinds of hats, or whatever it is they want

    It's fairly unlikely that a hung parliament would have two plausible stable coalitions. Most likely is a choice between one plausible stable coalition and another election.

    And a minor party that triggers another election in such circumstances is likely to suffer for pissing off the Brenda from Bristol tendency.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,141
    MaxPB said:

    Starmer is in a street fight, this is just a small taste of what the 2024 campaign will look like and he's already wobbling badly.

    This is quite true.

    Starmer has been dancing around the ring expecting Marquis of Queensbury etiquette as Johnson simply kicks him in the nuts.

    Johnson is a cage fighter who genuinely dates pole dancers.
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,559

    Farooq said:

    Crowdfunding military equipment is such a boneheaded idea I can't even believe it's really a thing. That's a doorway into a special kind of darkness that goes by the name of anarchy. I would shut that down in a second.

    Feed the guns and help to end the war.

    image
    Similar adverts in USA during WW2.

    Though IIRC the biggest impetus for US government was NOT paying for the war but rather preventing inflation by taking doors out of circulation, temporarily. And it worked, or certainly helped. Also gave people sense of participating AND supporting war effort from home front.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,149
    Applicant said:

    On topic, IDK.

    Boris is audacious and cares about nothing except himself. Is there really *nothing* he could offer one of the smaller parties that Kier Starmer wouldn't?

    - SNP: Independence referendum
    - LD: Referendum on PR and/or rejoining EU
    - DUP: Ban dancing, digital watches and most kinds of hats, or whatever it is they want

    It's fairly unlikely that a hung parliament would have two plausible stable coalitions. Most likely is a choice between one plausible stable coalition and another election.

    And a minor party that triggers another election in such circumstances is likely to suffer for pissing off the Brenda from Bristol tendency.
    That's generally true and I think it applies at the Starmer end: If he's a little bit short, LD and SNP will feel pressure to get rid of Boris and let him have a go.

    But at the Tory end I don't think anyone's under any particular obligation. If anything relighting the fag end of an exhausted government looks kind of bad. So I think the choice between Con Minority and a new election comes down to whether Boris can offer the people with the votes he needs something they want.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,612
    The head of that pin is getting pretty crowded:

    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1522978254142980096
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    The students apparently went back and found people were still eating.

    Takeaways rarely stay hot very long and after an hour they taste horrible in my experience.

    So unlucky for the Labour staff I guess, they should have got a birthday cake instead
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    BBC News - UK YouTuber Benjamin Rich held at Russian space centre
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61365446

    I wondered how long it would take until he got arrested.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,566
    edited May 2022
    Birmingham local elections:

    Popular vote [using highest vote method]

    Lab 106,411
    Con 59,604
    LD 31,425
    Green 14,691
    TUSC 963
    Ind 778
    Workers Party Birmingham 455
    We Matter Party 379
    Breakthrough Party 265
    Reform UK 93

    Lab 49.5%
    Con 27.7%
    LD 14.6%
    Green 6.8%
    TUSC 0.4%
    Ind 0.4%
    Workers Party Birmingham 0.2%
    We Matter Party 0.2%
    Breakthrough Party 0.1%
    Reform UK 0.0%


    Changes since 2018:

    Lab -0.8%
    Con -0.9%
    LD +0.5%
    Green +2.4%
    TUSC +0.1%
    Ind -1.4%
    Others +0.0%
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,559
    DUP takes 90th seat in NI Assembly - new members from one end to the other

    TUV 1 (0 diff from 2017)
    Ind U (exDUP) 1 (0)
    DUP 25 (-3)
    Ind U (exUUP) 1 (0)
    UUP 9 (-1)
    AP 17 (+9)
    GP 0 (-2)
    PBP 1 (0)
    SDLP 8 (-4)
    SF (0)
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,003
    edited May 2022

    DUP takes 90th seat in NI Assembly - new members from one end to the other

    TUV 1 (0 diff from 2017)
    Ind U (exDUP) 1 (0)
    DUP 25 (-3)
    Ind U (exUUP) 1 (0)
    UUP 9 (-1)
    AP 17 (+9)
    GP 0 (-2)
    PBP 1 (0)
    SDLP 8 (-4)
    SF (0)

    I don't believe Claire Sugden was ever an elected UUP representative; I'd put her rather on the Alliance side of the UUP, the endangered liberal unionist. (And the ex-DUP category is a +1 gain.)
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    edited May 2022
    Edit.. didn't mean to resurrect a seven hour old comment.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,341

    The head of that pin is getting pretty crowded:

    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1522978254142980096

    He might even be right. Fwiw (and see Roger's take earlier in this thread) I can't offhand see that its being planned makes any difference whether you think this is entirely innocent or Sodom and Gomorrah. I can see it makes things worse for Starmer simply because it keeps the story moving.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,341
    In more innocent times we'd be looking at tweeted pictures of ministers and their teams surrounded by the detritus of their favourite posh takeaway to show how hard they were working.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    The coverage I've just heard about the Azovstal steelworks is utterly utterly bizzare. The civilians are now out according to BBC news with around 2000 odd Kyiv aligned fighters in the plant. They're not going to surrender yet there are "fears about what Russia is going to do".
    It's a battle zone, they're fighters. They're not surrendering. What on earth do they expect Russia to try and do ?!?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    Every fighter in history has had a mother.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,341
    Pulpstar said:

    The coverage I've just heard about the Azovstal steelworks is utterly utterly bizzare. The civilians are now out according to BBC news with around 2000 odd Kyiv aligned fighters in the plant. They're not going to surrender yet there are "fears about what Russia is going to do".
    It's a battle zone, they're fighters. They're not surrendering. What on earth do they expect Russia to try and do ?!?

    That might depend on whether Russia wants to capture a working steel mill or a pile of rubble.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917

    Pulpstar said:

    The coverage I've just heard about the Azovstal steelworks is utterly utterly bizzare. The civilians are now out according to BBC news with around 2000 odd Kyiv aligned fighters in the plant. They're not going to surrender yet there are "fears about what Russia is going to do".
    It's a battle zone, they're fighters. They're not surrendering. What on earth do they expect Russia to try and do ?!?

    That might depend on whether Russia wants to capture a working steel mill or a pile of rubble.
    It's a long way past working given the amount of ordinance dropped on it
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited May 2022

    The head of that pin is getting pretty crowded:

    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1522978254142980096

    He might even be right. Fwiw (and see Roger's take earlier in this thread) I can't offhand see that its being planned makes any difference whether you think this is entirely innocent or Sodom and Gomorrah. I can see it makes things worse for Starmer simply because it keeps the story moving.
    I believe the point is that the memo says the plan was on the campaign trial, then when finished there will be organised food / drinks and nothing after. This wasn't really allowed at the time. And Starmer's story has been they were on the campaign trial, briefing stopped for a takeaway and then cracked on again.

    Now there is a story in the Times that it descended into a bit of piss up, now that's a bigger problem.

    Overall the infraction at best is minor, but its the cover-up and hypocrisy that gets you. If Starmer hadn't two footed on Boris and said the rules were confusing at times, it is probably true everybody broken them inadvertently at some point, however Boris behaviour was to actively encourage a culture of consistent ignoring of the rules.
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    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,021

    The head of that pin is getting pretty crowded:

    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1522978254142980096

    He might even be right. Fwiw (and see Roger's take earlier in this thread) I can't offhand see that its being planned makes any difference whether you think this is entirely innocent or Sodom and Gomorrah. I can see it makes things worse for Starmer simply because it keeps the story moving.
    I suspect it turns on whether they continued work afterwards. If they finished work and then ate & went home why couldn’t they go to their hotels and eat alone.

    It’s all daft anyway
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    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,021
    Pulpstar said:

    The coverage I've just heard about the Azovstal steelworks is utterly utterly bizzare. The civilians are now out according to BBC news with around 2000 odd Kyiv aligned fighters in the plant. They're not going to surrender yet there are "fears about what Russia is going to do".
    It's a battle zone, they're fighters. They're not surrendering. What on earth do they expect Russia to try and do ?!?

    They used a thermobaric bomb a couple of days ago… maybe a small nuke next…

    It’s not the what but the how…
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,566
    edited May 2022
    "Europe's tourist hotspots mourn lack of big-spending Russians
    The reverberations of the Ukraine conflict are being felt across Europe’s tourism hubs as they face acute financial losses" (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/05/07/europes-tourist-hotspots-mourn-lack-big-spending-russians/

    A lot of people won't miss them though.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,341
    Andy_JS said:

    "Europe's tourist hotspots mourn lack of big-spending Russians
    The reverberations of the Ukraine conflict are being felt across Europe’s tourism hubs as they face acute financial losses" (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/05/07/europes-tourist-hotspots-mourn-lack-big-spending-russians/

    A lot of people won't miss them though.

    Sanctions against Russia are a blunt instrument. Forcing the sale of Chelsea has not noticeably shortened the war special military operation. Neither the oligarchs nor the man on the Moscow omnibus control Putin. Freezing Russian banks out of the international payments system has blunted the Russian economy but the West is handing over $1 billion a day for Russian gas. You might have hoped that Whitehall, Washington and Brussels would have had smarter plans filed away.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,341

    The head of that pin is getting pretty crowded:

    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1522978254142980096

    He might even be right. Fwiw (and see Roger's take earlier in this thread) I can't offhand see that its being planned makes any difference whether you think this is entirely innocent or Sodom and Gomorrah. I can see it makes things worse for Starmer simply because it keeps the story moving.
    I suspect it turns on whether they continued work afterwards. If they finished work and then ate & went home why couldn’t they go to their hotels and eat alone.

    It’s all daft anyway
    Can you eat takeaway food in hotels? The logistics probably demanded something like this: either organise food or have some sort of complicated expenses system. Otherwise Labour is in Top Gear territory where Jeremy Clarkson thumped a producer for not having arranged food at the end of a day's filming.

    But it does look bad for Starmer, even if the Durham rozzers eventually give him the all-clear.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,955

    New Thread

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    theakestheakes Posts: 842
    The Lib Dems will NOT enter any Co-alition, the members will hit the roof after 2010
This discussion has been closed.