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The big fact about the next election – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 15 in General
The big fact about the next election – politicalbetting.com

Let's remember that Johnson’s Tories are uncoalitionable and need a majority to remain in power. Starmer, however, can become PM even if the Tories win most votes and seats provided they lose their majority

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 496
    The Big Fat About The Next Election - Boris
  • TazTaz Posts: 4,787
    Exactly what Andrew Neil said on LBC. As long as SKS’s pissup/party does not bring him a fine he will be PM post 2024 election
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 19,696
    The electoral landing zone for NOM is huge.
    Reckon it became more likely.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 2,420
    edited May 7
    This is an opinion, not a fact. In the event of a hung parliament, what happens next will depend on exact seat counts.

    Just like in 2010.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,645
    Starmer has Dianne Abbott totally behind him

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/beergate-keir-starmer-consider-position-fined-covid-rules-diane-abbott-1617123?ico=related_stories

    members of momentum should contact Diane urgently if they can "help" Keir in his career planning
  • kjhkjh Posts: 6,223
    @Alistair fpt NP-complete:

    Well that is a new one on me and it took me a few minutes to work out how it worked and it looks very interesting. More info from anyone please? First thought is if there are say 6 candidates it will take a long time to vote and there will be matches where I don't have an opinion and I can't reasonably be expected to have an opinion between certain candidates.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 4,263
    I expect the word 'uncoalitionable' to appear in the next OED, as it's certainly not there now. As ever, PB sets the trend. And I agree with the header - the current Tories are Johnny No Mates.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,507
    Applicant said:

    This is an opinion, not a fact. In the event of a hung parliament, what happens next will depend on exact seat counts.

    Just like in 2010.

    It is fair to say that if the Tories are the largest party by some *considerable* number, it would probably be worth letting them take the pain of the next couple of year and voting down anything beyond the pale. When they descend into acrimony, it might be easier for Labour to win a second election.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 2,420
    edited May 7
    dixiedean said:

    The electoral landing zone for NOM is huge.
    Reckon it became more likely.

    Agreed. It feels very hung parliament like at the moment - the governing party is losing support but mostly not to the main opposition party.

    Labour really have to start coming up with some policies. The excuse given over the last couple of days that if they do, the Tories will nick them is risible.
  • pingping Posts: 2,143
    Monkeys said:

    no one will ever go into coalition as long as there are no offers. the day after election day is a different story.

    Yep, I agree.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,649

    I expect the word 'uncoalitionable' to appear in the next OED, as it's certainly not there now. As ever, PB sets the trend. And I agree with the header - the current Tories are Johnny No Mates.

    uncoalizeable?
  • pingping Posts: 2,143
    edited May 7

    I expect the word 'uncoalitionable' to appear in the next OED, as it's certainly not there now. As ever, PB sets the trend. And I agree with the header - the current Tories are Johnny No Mates.

    uncoalizeable?
    I prefer “not coalitionable”

    The “un-“ is ugly.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 40,636
    ping said:

    I expect the word 'uncoalitionable' to appear in the next OED, as it's certainly not there now. As ever, PB sets the trend. And I agree with the header - the current Tories are Johnny No Mates.

    uncoalizeable?
    I prefer “not coalitionable”

    The “un-“ is ugly.
    Unugly?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,584
    Monkeys said:

    no one will ever go into coalition as long as there are no offers. the day after election day is a different story.

    Exactly. The arithmetic determines what coalitions are possible.

    If the arithmetic makes it possible, then it is a cast-iron guarantee that the politicians will be flexible.

    Ask Clegg.

    And, after all, Clegg's story had a very, very happy ending .... President of Global Affairs at Meta.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 18,659
    On Topic SKSWNBPM
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 49,748

    Starmer has Dianne Abbott totally behind him

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/beergate-keir-starmer-consider-position-fined-covid-rules-diane-abbott-1617123?ico=related_stories

    members of momentum should contact Diane urgently if they can "help" Keir in his career planning

    Do we know if Labour have put in sufficient protection to stop Corbyn II being elected leader when Starmer falls over a FPN? Is this £3 join and vote still available?


  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 49,748
    I'm not convinced the DUP wouldn't do a deal in the end with Tories.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 39,709

    I expect the word 'uncoalitionable' to appear in the next OED, as it's certainly not there now. As ever, PB sets the trend. And I agree with the header - the current Tories are Johnny No Mates.

    uncoalizeable?
    Unconscionable? Unconscious? Unconscioned?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 18,659
    Taz said:

    Exactly what Andrew Neil said on LBC. As long as SKS’s pissup/party does not bring him a fine he will be PM post 2024 election

    No chance SKSWNBPM

    He lost ground and Councillors in every single area of England except London in LE2022.

    Mark Drakeford got twice as many gains in little old Wales as SKS in the whole of England even including London.

    SKS already down over 300 Councillors in 2021 compared to his predecessor.

    SKS defenders must be Tory enablers sleep walking to another GE defeat
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 49,748
    Looks like big trouble for Starmer tonight.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 49,748
    KEIR STARMER has been plunged into a full-scale leadership crisis after The Mail on Sunday obtained a secret Labour Party document which appears to blow apart his version of events over ‘Beergate’.

    An operational note drawn up ahead of Sir Keir’s notorious visit to Durham, where he was filmed enjoying a late-night beer with activists, reveals the gathering had been planned in advance.

    Mail on Sunday
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,210
    "The big fact about the next election"
    A hedgehog speaks.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 97,799

    I'm not convinced the DUP wouldn't do a deal in the end with Tories.

    If the Irish Sea border was scrapped.

    However on the locals results Labour plus LDs would be more than Tories plus DUP even ignoring the SNP
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 7,967
    FPT

    Kinabalu said - "On that subject - tailoring - I'm about to embark on getting a bespoke suit for the 1st time ever. I'll be going for a snug fit (like Rishi) but not the supershort trousers. Don't think I could carry that off the way he does."

    SSI - You might wish to take account of rising sea levels that make high-water pants a sensible investment.

    State Go Away said - "i dont mean most voters cannot understand HOW to vote [STV] in terms of numbers ( although it does preclude and spoil some votes the more complicated a system which is not a good thing ) but most voters could then not explain how the votes are COUNTED - that is not transparent and not a good system therefore

    SSI - Based on my (admittedly limited) experience with STV in Republic, think you are wrong re: counting. In fact, the system is VERY transparent, as you can demonstrate for yourself with a pretty simple spreadsheet. Easy to see how transfers are flowing including non-transferable votes.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 16,172

    Starmer has Dianne Abbott totally behind him

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/beergate-keir-starmer-consider-position-fined-covid-rules-diane-abbott-1617123?ico=related_stories

    members of momentum should contact Diane urgently if they can "help" Keir in his career planning

    That piece actually says 'taken a different tact'. I mean really? Using the cliche in the first place ain't great, but 'tact'?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 3,999
    The other thing about coalitioning BJ's Tories is, if things go well, he will personally be given close to 100% of the credit, with a small amount for his party, and none for you.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 29,333

    KEIR STARMER has been plunged into a full-scale leadership crisis after The Mail on Sunday obtained a secret Labour Party document which appears to blow apart his version of events over ‘Beergate’.

    An operational note drawn up ahead of Sir Keir’s notorious visit to Durham, where he was filmed enjoying a late-night beer with activists, reveals the gathering had been planned in advance.

    Mail on Sunday

    I await:

    "It's all a stitch-up by the right-wing press!"
    "He's better than Johnson!"
    "It was a genuine business meeting, honest guv!"
    "Labour have been honest throughout this, unlike liar Johnson!"
    "The police should have better things to do with their time!"
    "Look, squirrel!"

    etc, etc. ;)
  • TazTaz Posts: 4,787
    HYUFD said:

    I'm not convinced the DUP wouldn't do a deal in the end with Tories.

    If the Irish Sea border was scrapped.

    However on the locals results Labour plus LDs would be more than Tories plus DUP even ignoring the SNP
    SNP wouldn’t vote on non Scottish policy matters anyway. They wouldn’t need them.
  • TazTaz Posts: 4,787

    KEIR STARMER has been plunged into a full-scale leadership crisis after The Mail on Sunday obtained a secret Labour Party document which appears to blow apart his version of events over ‘Beergate’.

    An operational note drawn up ahead of Sir Keir’s notorious visit to Durham, where he was filmed enjoying a late-night beer with activists, reveals the gathering had been planned in advance.

    Mail on Sunday

    I await:

    "It's all a stitch-up by the right-wing press!"
    "He's better than Johnson!"
    "It was a genuine business meeting, honest guv!"
    "Labour have been honest throughout this, unlike liar Johnson!"
    "The police should have better things to do with their time!"
    "Look, squirrel!"

    etc, etc. ;)
    Maybe I was wrong on this. I have always said it’s a nothing story.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 21,147
    HYUFD said:

    I'm not convinced the DUP wouldn't do a deal in the end with Tories.

    If the Irish Sea border was scrapped.

    However on the locals results Labour plus LDs would be more than Tories plus DUP even ignoring the SNP
    Hey, do you think Mr Johnson is Stephen Hawking to be able to sort out the mess he has made of NI and Brexit without wrecking relations with the EU and the US, not to mention starting a civil war?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,133

    KEIR STARMER has been plunged into a full-scale leadership crisis after The Mail on Sunday obtained a secret Labour Party document which appears to blow apart his version of events over ‘Beergate’.

    An operational note drawn up ahead of Sir Keir’s notorious visit to Durham, where he was filmed enjoying a late-night beer with activists, reveals the gathering had been planned in advance.

    Mail on Sunday

    I await:

    "It's all a stitch-up by the right-wing press!"
    "He's better than Johnson!"
    "It was a genuine business meeting, honest guv!"
    "Labour have been honest throughout this, unlike liar Johnson!"
    "The police should have better things to do with their time!"
    "Look, squirrel!"

    etc, etc. ;)
    The Durham police definitely have better things to be doing with their time. As do the Met police in London.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,645
    HYUFD said:

    I'm not convinced the DUP wouldn't do a deal in the end with Tories.

    If the Irish Sea border was scrapped.

    However on the locals results Labour plus LDs would be more than Tories plus DUP even ignoring the SNP
    maybe instead of sucking up to the DUP the Tories could try having some policies, even better they could actually implement some of them
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 16,049
    With one bound Phatboi was free.

    What a difference a week fails to make. Last Saturday I was sat at the runners and riders board at a point to point explaining that sks was an incompetent liar, now here I am by the lake at badminton and sks is still an incompetent liar.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,478
    JACK_W said:

    The Big Fat About The Next Election - Boris

    good to see you posting Jack
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 44,490
    The big fact about the next General Election is that, legally, it can be as late as January 2025.

    Don't rule that out.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 74,513
    edited May 7
    Monkeys said:

    no one will ever go into coalition as long as there are no offers. the day after election day is a different story.

    True, but I don't think it incorrect either to suggest that if they are short of a majority the chances of the Tories finding someone to accept an offer, should they make one, are not very high. This isn't like 2010 for them in how open others are to dealing with them. It's not impossible, but seems pretty unrealistic.

    They'd have to be pretty close to a majority, and hope that makes Keir's job too hard to gather a working arrangement together, rather than rely on someone accepting an offer to keep them in power after 14 years.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 7,967
    edited May 7
    Alanbrooke, sorry to hear you have COVID hopefully NOT a serious case AND that you are starting to feel better and get well.

    Or at least as good as you're likely to get!

    Re: sectarian influences, just spun the wheel in front of my neighborhood Tibetan Buddhist temple (doesn't every hood have one?) for you and all other PB COVIDteers.

    AND don't know IF you'll consider this a complement, but on the way to my local supermarket, found myself whistling "Roddy McCorley" - and thought of you.

    Clancy Brothers & Tommy Makem (with Pete Seeger) - Roddy McCorley
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_qoEqutj7mQ
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,649
    edited May 7
    Taz said:
    So let me get this straight. The juncture at which Sir Keir consumed his curry during this 'work event' determines whether it was legal: at the end DOOM; otherwise okay.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,584
    Taz said:

    KEIR STARMER has been plunged into a full-scale leadership crisis after The Mail on Sunday obtained a secret Labour Party document which appears to blow apart his version of events over ‘Beergate’.

    An operational note drawn up ahead of Sir Keir’s notorious visit to Durham, where he was filmed enjoying a late-night beer with activists, reveals the gathering had been planned in advance.

    Mail on Sunday

    I await:

    "It's all a stitch-up by the right-wing press!"
    "He's better than Johnson!"
    "It was a genuine business meeting, honest guv!"
    "Labour have been honest throughout this, unlike liar Johnson!"
    "The police should have better things to do with their time!"
    "Look, squirrel!"

    etc, etc. ;)
    Maybe I was wrong on this. I have always said it’s a nothing story.
    I too thought it was a complete non-story.

    But, I am sure Durham Police would not have reopened the investigation unless they absolutely had to.

    So, I think that means there has to be serious & credible evidence that warrants an investigation.
  • TazTaz Posts: 4,787

    Taz said:

    KEIR STARMER has been plunged into a full-scale leadership crisis after The Mail on Sunday obtained a secret Labour Party document which appears to blow apart his version of events over ‘Beergate’.

    An operational note drawn up ahead of Sir Keir’s notorious visit to Durham, where he was filmed enjoying a late-night beer with activists, reveals the gathering had been planned in advance.

    Mail on Sunday

    I await:

    "It's all a stitch-up by the right-wing press!"
    "He's better than Johnson!"
    "It was a genuine business meeting, honest guv!"
    "Labour have been honest throughout this, unlike liar Johnson!"
    "The police should have better things to do with their time!"
    "Look, squirrel!"

    etc, etc. ;)
    Maybe I was wrong on this. I have always said it’s a nothing story.
    I too thought it was a complete non-story.

    But, I am sure Durham Police would not have reopened the investigation unless they absolutely had to.

    So, I think that means there has to be serious & credible evidence that warrants an investigation.

    I agree, Durham police are not the met. They are pretty competent and Joy Allen, the labour PCC, is too and she would never interfere as some have suggested elsewhere.

    Something is awry,
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 1,350
    Taz said:

    KEIR STARMER has been plunged into a full-scale leadership crisis after The Mail on Sunday obtained a secret Labour Party document which appears to blow apart his version of events over ‘Beergate’.

    An operational note drawn up ahead of Sir Keir’s notorious visit to Durham, where he was filmed enjoying a late-night beer with activists, reveals the gathering had been planned in advance.

    Mail on Sunday

    I await:

    "It's all a stitch-up by the right-wing press!"
    "He's better than Johnson!"
    "It was a genuine business meeting, honest guv!"
    "Labour have been honest throughout this, unlike liar Johnson!"
    "The police should have better things to do with their time!"
    "Look, squirrel!"

    etc, etc. ;)
    Maybe I was wrong on this. I have always said it’s a nothing story.
    The media is primed for a “Boris come back” story. It’s all a big soap opera for them. I think the September set of conference speeches determine if Starmer (or the next guy in the unlikely event he does go) becomes PM. Well them, plus the extent of the economic downturn (I don’t think it will be as bad as assumed because I think Ukraine will burn out inside a few months one way or another and Biden will himself engineer a boom).
  • TazTaz Posts: 4,787

    Taz said:
    So let me get this straight. Depending at what juncture during this 'work event' Sir Keir consumed his curry determines whether it was legal: at the end DOOM; otherwise okay.
    That seems to be the case.

    Crap legislation alert.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 22,658
    "Johnson's Tories"

    Does that imply that Mike thinks a different Tory leader might be able to get support from the yellow peril?

    You just know the Lib Dems are going to get back to 20 -25 seats and, once again, be faced with a rather unappealing choice.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 4,399

    The big fact about the next General Election is that, legally, it can be as late as January 2025.

    Don't rule that out.

    a fact even bookies forget when setting their markets on next election
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 74,513

    Taz said:
    So let me get this straight. Depending at what juncture during this 'work event' Sir Keir consumed his curry determines whether it was legal: at the end DOOM; otherwise okay.
    That's not actually that absurd as it might seem at first glance, since the capacity in which one is acting, and precise position, can determine whether something is ok or not and might shift quite a bit (a common example would be attending an official event, then moving 20 feet outside or something, so not in an official capacity even if you then do something offensive - thank you LIvingstone for that clarity).

    But I doubt the public are going to absorb fine details abotu specific times for things, how much leeway they are willing to grant a politician depends on their general feeling to them.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 1,350
    kle4 said:

    Monkeys said:

    no one will ever go into coalition as long as there are no offers. the day after election day is a different story.

    True, but I don't think it incorrect either to suggest that if they are short of a majority the chances of the Tories finding someone to accept an offer, should they make one, are not very high. This isn't like 2010 for them in how open others are to dealing with them. It's not impossible, but seems pretty unrealistic.

    They'd have to be pretty close to a majority, and hope that makes Keir's job too hard to gather a working arrangement together, rather than rely on someone accepting an offer to keep them in power after 14 years.
    I think that’s right, but I also think there’s space for a Tory minority if the others have been forced to refuse to work with the SNP and it makes sense to stick with that line post election to manoeuvre for the next one.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 29,333

    Taz said:

    KEIR STARMER has been plunged into a full-scale leadership crisis after The Mail on Sunday obtained a secret Labour Party document which appears to blow apart his version of events over ‘Beergate’.

    An operational note drawn up ahead of Sir Keir’s notorious visit to Durham, where he was filmed enjoying a late-night beer with activists, reveals the gathering had been planned in advance.

    Mail on Sunday

    I await:

    "It's all a stitch-up by the right-wing press!"
    "He's better than Johnson!"
    "It was a genuine business meeting, honest guv!"
    "Labour have been honest throughout this, unlike liar Johnson!"
    "The police should have better things to do with their time!"
    "Look, squirrel!"

    etc, etc. ;)
    Maybe I was wrong on this. I have always said it’s a nothing story.
    I too thought it was a complete non-story.

    But, I am sure Durham Police would not have reopened the investigation unless they absolutely had to.

    So, I think that means there has to be serious & credible evidence that warrants an investigation.
    I tried to keep out of it until recently, as lots of left-leaning people ripped into the few on here who said there was something whiffy about the story.

    But the Rayner part of the story was where it started to get interesting. It started to look as though they were either incompetent or had something to hide. Neither is a good look.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,946
    Taz said:

    Taz said:
    So let me get this straight. Depending at what juncture during this 'work event' Sir Keir consumed his curry determines whether it was legal: at the end DOOM; otherwise okay.
    That seems to be the case.

    Crap legislation alert.
    Agreed. Crap legislation that SKS supported, though.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 18,471
    The Mail just exonerated Starmer.

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1522977416037208064

    Mail on Sunday obtain the operational note for April 30 2021 - “beergate” day

    The curry at the heart of the police investigation features on it as a preplanned event
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 21,147
    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    I'm not convinced the DUP wouldn't do a deal in the end with Tories.

    If the Irish Sea border was scrapped.

    However on the locals results Labour plus LDs would be more than Tories plus DUP even ignoring the SNP
    SNP wouldn’t vote on non Scottish policy matters anyway. They wouldn’t need them.
    Non Scottish, non UK to be more precise. But yes, your general point is right.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,464
    tlg86 said:

    "Johnson's Tories"

    Does that imply that Mike thinks a different Tory leader might be able to get support from the yellow peril?

    You just know the Lib Dems are going to get back to 20 -25 seats and, once again, be faced with a rather unappealing choice.

    There is no way that the Lib Dems will support the party of Brexit.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 6,223
    Edwin Poots asked who are going to be the most difficult discussions with, Sinn Fein or the UK Govt? Quick answer - UK Govt. Says it all.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 18,471
    So let's look at the facts.

    Keir Starmer's team planned to have a working meal which detailed the social distancing guidelines that should be followed and what would be ordered.

    Sounds like a standard working dinner to me. I've been to tonnes of them
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 4,399

    The big fact about the next General Election is that, legally, it can be as late as January 2025.

    Don't rule that out.

    its why i have not bet on 2024 as the election year . The bookies have forgot this and hopefully punters dont make the same mistake
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 18,471
    8:40 to 10, an hour and twenty minutes for a meal seems pretty fair.

    It even says what they will do afterwards, i.e. no party that went on.

    So I think Starmer is home and clear, seems like he was telling the truth.
  • TazTaz Posts: 4,787

    Taz said:

    KEIR STARMER has been plunged into a full-scale leadership crisis after The Mail on Sunday obtained a secret Labour Party document which appears to blow apart his version of events over ‘Beergate’.

    An operational note drawn up ahead of Sir Keir’s notorious visit to Durham, where he was filmed enjoying a late-night beer with activists, reveals the gathering had been planned in advance.

    Mail on Sunday

    I await:

    "It's all a stitch-up by the right-wing press!"
    "He's better than Johnson!"
    "It was a genuine business meeting, honest guv!"
    "Labour have been honest throughout this, unlike liar Johnson!"
    "The police should have better things to do with their time!"
    "Look, squirrel!"

    etc, etc. ;)
    Maybe I was wrong on this. I have always said it’s a nothing story.
    I too thought it was a complete non-story.

    But, I am sure Durham Police would not have reopened the investigation unless they absolutely had to.

    So, I think that means there has to be serious & credible evidence that warrants an investigation.
    I tried to keep out of it until recently, as lots of left-leaning people ripped into the few on here who said there was something whiffy about the story.

    But the Rayner part of the story was where it started to get interesting. It started to look as though they were either incompetent or had something to hide. Neither is a good look.
    Indeed and the way this is portrayed as a lie as well, where it may be or it may just be a mistake, really doesn’t help,either.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,649
    biggles said:

    Taz said:

    KEIR STARMER has been plunged into a full-scale leadership crisis after The Mail on Sunday obtained a secret Labour Party document which appears to blow apart his version of events over ‘Beergate’.

    An operational note drawn up ahead of Sir Keir’s notorious visit to Durham, where he was filmed enjoying a late-night beer with activists, reveals the gathering had been planned in advance.

    Mail on Sunday

    I await:

    "It's all a stitch-up by the right-wing press!"
    "He's better than Johnson!"
    "It was a genuine business meeting, honest guv!"
    "Labour have been honest throughout this, unlike liar Johnson!"
    "The police should have better things to do with their time!"
    "Look, squirrel!"

    etc, etc. ;)
    Maybe I was wrong on this. I have always said it’s a nothing story.
    The media is primed for a “Boris come back” story. It’s all a big soap opera for them. I think the September set of conference speeches determine if Starmer (or the next guy in the unlikely event he does go) becomes PM. Well them, plus the extent of the economic downturn (I don’t think it will be as bad as assumed because I think Ukraine will burn out inside a few months one way or another and Biden will himself engineer a boom).
    I think that's right. The media got bored trying to destroy Boris (and Boris knows how the media work so was shrewd to ride it out) and have now decided to have a crack at pious, superior Sir Keir and his presumptions. If the Durham police issue a fine it will be supernova. The politics of the nation, perhaps for decades to come, now hang on how a single flat foot interprets matters on the day.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 18,471
    Just seen this - don't see how it being pre-planned makes a difference to original reason, they were feeding staff & I assume volunteers.The fact it was pre-arranged with social distancing guidelines makes it more likely to be reasonably necessary not less

    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1522978254142980096
  • TazTaz Posts: 4,787
    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    "Johnson's Tories"

    Does that imply that Mike thinks a different Tory leader might be able to get support from the yellow peril?

    You just know the Lib Dems are going to get back to 20 -25 seats and, once again, be faced with a rather unappealing choice.

    There is no way that the Lib Dems will support the party of Brexit.
    They certainly would be unlikely to support a Boris led Tory party.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 22,658
    edited May 7

    Taz said:
    So let me get this straight. The juncture at which Sir Keir consumed his curry during this 'work event' determines whether it was legal: at the end DOOM; otherwise okay.
    Well, some us always thought these rules were a bit silly. But there's another problem. Starmer has insisted that they continued working after the curry. Is he about to be shown to be a liar, just like Johnson?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 21,147

    The Mail just exonerated Starmer.

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1522977416037208064

    Mail on Sunday obtain the operational note for April 30 2021 - “beergate” day

    The curry at the heart of the police investigation features on it as a preplanned event

    Hmm, someone's going to get done for malfeasance in public office surely? Handing out polis bumf to the papers.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 18,471
    Taz said:
    It exonerates him, I don't see how this is anything but good news for Starmer.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 44,490

    The big fact about the next General Election is that, legally, it can be as late as January 2025.

    Don't rule that out.

    its why i have not bet on 2024 as the election year . The bookies have forgot this and hopefully punters dont make the same mistake
    I'd be interested in odds on 2025, but I can't find any.
  • TazTaz Posts: 4,787

    Taz said:
    It exonerates him, I don't see how this is anything but good news for Starmer.
    We will see. I have always said it was a non story but we will see.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 6,223
    Taz said:

    Taz said:
    So let me get this straight. Depending at what juncture during this 'work event' Sir Keir consumed his curry determines whether it was legal: at the end DOOM; otherwise okay.
    That seems to be the case.

    Crap legislation alert.
    I can't believe that is the issue but if it is it is bollocks. It is such a technicality. The mail is such an appalling paper.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 1,282

    KEIR STARMER has been plunged into a full-scale leadership crisis after The Mail on Sunday obtained a secret Labour Party document which appears to blow apart his version of events over ‘Beergate’.

    An operational note drawn up ahead of Sir Keir’s notorious visit to Durham, where he was filmed enjoying a late-night beer with activists, reveals the gathering had been planned in advance.

    Mail on Sunday

    I thought the gathering had to be planned as it was scheduled before the council elections . Am I missing something ?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 44,490
    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    "Johnson's Tories"

    Does that imply that Mike thinks a different Tory leader might be able to get support from the yellow peril?

    You just know the Lib Dems are going to get back to 20 -25 seats and, once again, be faced with a rather unappealing choice.

    There is no way that the Lib Dems will support the party of Brexit.
    Is that the Lib Dem party that pledged an in/out referendum on the EU before the Tories did?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 7,967
    With 79 of 90 seats decided, current breakdown for NI Assembly 2022 is

    SF 23 DUP 22 ALLN 16 UUP 9 SDLP 6 Other 3 (1 TUV, 1 People Before Profit, 1 Ind ex-DUP)

    Looking forward to remaining seats to be decided:

    Foyle = 3 remaining, likely I SF, I DUP, 1 SDLP

    East Londonderry = 3 remaining, likely 1 Ind Unionist, either 2 SF or 1 SF, 1 SDLP

    Fermanagh and South Tyrone = 3 remaining, likely 2 SF, 1 DUP

    North Belfast = 2 remaining, likely 1 Alliance, 1 DUP

    total remaining thus = SF 4 (min) + DUP 3 + SDLP 2 (max) + Alliance 1 + Ind Unionist 1 = 11

    Which would add up with seats already decided to

    SF 27 DUP 25 ALLN 17 UUP 9 SDLP 8 TUV 1 PBP 2 Ind Unionists
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 18,471
    Taz said:

    Taz said:
    It exonerates him, I don't see how this is anything but good news for Starmer.
    We will see. I have always said it was a non story but we will see.
    Would like somebody to bring me down a peg as I am trying to be objective about this - if he does get fined he must go.

    But I don't see how a planned meal with social distancing guidelines followed between two events that were campaign related can be interpreted as anything other than totally necessary.

    Can somebody explain what I am missing?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 16,049

    Taz said:
    It exonerates him, I don't see how this is anything but good news for Starmer.
    Nails the lie about Rayner as a lie
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 40,135

    8:40 to 10, an hour and twenty minutes for a meal seems pretty fair.

    It even says what they will do afterwards, i.e. no party that went on.

    So I think Starmer is home and clear, seems like he was telling the truth.

    There was nothing planned after the dinner except going back to the hotel so it doesn't match the previous story that they were working late and spontaneously decided to get a takeaway curry.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 22,658
    If you watch the video, it's obvious that no one in attendance gave a shit about masks or social distancing.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 18,471
    nico679 said:

    KEIR STARMER has been plunged into a full-scale leadership crisis after The Mail on Sunday obtained a secret Labour Party document which appears to blow apart his version of events over ‘Beergate’.

    An operational note drawn up ahead of Sir Keir’s notorious visit to Durham, where he was filmed enjoying a late-night beer with activists, reveals the gathering had been planned in advance.

    Mail on Sunday

    I thought the gathering had to be planned as it was scheduled before the council elections . Am I missing something ?
    Why is it being planned a bad thing, isn't that a good thing. They said follow social distancing guidelines and that it would be part of the working day.

    It's like my company posting an agenda for the day, I feel like this actually makes Starmer look better not worse
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 1,947
    Long time no play. Labour just lost control of Tower Hamlets council, Aspire will have a majority if they take any of the 4 wards left to declare. One in spitalfieids is almost certain
    They might lose Croydon, but I have them hanging on by 3......
    Keir and beer - he's done a Nixon and let a nothing become a something.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 18,471

    8:40 to 10, an hour and twenty minutes for a meal seems pretty fair.

    It even says what they will do afterwards, i.e. no party that went on.

    So I think Starmer is home and clear, seems like he was telling the truth.

    There was nothing planned after the dinner except going back to the hotel so it doesn't match the previous story that they were working late and spontaneously decided to get a takeaway curry.
    Who said they spontaneously chose to get a takeaway curry? The story has always been we were working late and had curry. Which is what the memo confirms to be true. They planned it out, like all organisations do.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 22,658
    Wasn't there a bit of a scandal where workers were organising working lunches as a way to get round lockdown rules?

    Ah, here we go...

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8859161/Coronavirus-UK-Punters-joke-taking-advantage-Tier-2-3-working-lunch-loophole.html
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 22,658

    8:40 to 10, an hour and twenty minutes for a meal seems pretty fair.

    It even says what they will do afterwards, i.e. no party that went on.

    So I think Starmer is home and clear, seems like he was telling the truth.

    There was nothing planned after the dinner except going back to the hotel so it doesn't match the previous story that they were working late and spontaneously decided to get a takeaway curry.
    Who said they spontaneously chose to get a takeaway curry? The story has always been we were working late and had curry. Which is what the memo confirms to be true. They planned it out, like all organisations do.
    Starmer said they went back to work after eating.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 18,471
    tlg86 said:

    8:40 to 10, an hour and twenty minutes for a meal seems pretty fair.

    It even says what they will do afterwards, i.e. no party that went on.

    So I think Starmer is home and clear, seems like he was telling the truth.

    There was nothing planned after the dinner except going back to the hotel so it doesn't match the previous story that they were working late and spontaneously decided to get a takeaway curry.
    Who said they spontaneously chose to get a takeaway curry? The story has always been we were working late and had curry. Which is what the memo confirms to be true. They planned it out, like all organisations do.
    Starmer said they went back to work after eating.
    The memo doesn't prove that to not be true.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 15,578

    Taz said:

    Taz said:
    It exonerates him, I don't see how this is anything but good news for Starmer.
    We will see. I have always said it was a non story but we will see.
    Would like somebody to bring me down a peg as I am trying to be objective about this - if he does get fined he must go.

    But I don't see how a planned meal with social distancing guidelines followed between two events that were campaign related can be interpreted as anything other than totally necessary.

    Can somebody explain what I am missing?
    I agree with you on all counts, but I feel he has to go, and go quickly "to clear his name". Otherwise the Opposition Parties are hamstrung (well Starmer was living it large, poor innocent Boris) when the FPNs and Gray report arrive.

    Starmer has had the agenda hijacked. He doesn't know how to play dirty. Johnson and his team have absolutely kippered him.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 19,696

    With 79 of 90 seats decided, current breakdown for NI Assembly 2022 is

    SF 23 DUP 22 ALLN 16 UUP 9 SDLP 6 Other 3 (1 TUV, 1 People Before Profit, 1 Ind ex-DUP)

    Looking forward to remaining seats to be decided:

    Foyle = 3 remaining, likely I SF, I DUP, 1 SDLP

    East Londonderry = 3 remaining, likely 1 Ind Unionist, either 2 SF or 1 SF, 1 SDLP

    Fermanagh and South Tyrone = 3 remaining, likely 2 SF, 1 DUP

    North Belfast = 2 remaining, likely 1 Alliance, 1 DUP

    total remaining thus = SF 4 (min) + DUP 3 + SDLP 2 (max) + Alliance 1 + Ind Unionist 1 = 11

    Which would add up with seats already decided to

    SF 27 DUP 25 ALLN 17 UUP 9 SDLP 8 TUV 1 PBP 2 Ind Unionists

    That's what I make it too.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 3,999
    Alliance gained nine seats. All east of the Bann (counting Upper Bann). West of the Bann, there are six out of the 18 constituencies, and it is looking likely that they will have no change in party strength at all. Four Alliance gains were from the SDLP and two were from the Greens. The SDLP are the least sectarian of the four pillars of the old party system. I'd conclude that this election turned out to be a reshuffle of the non-sectarian vote and that the real earthquake is yet to be seen.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 18,471
    I must say, it is strange the "whistleblower" sat on the bombshell evidence for so long, almost like they chose to deploy it politically near to the LEs
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 22,658
    edited May 7

    tlg86 said:

    8:40 to 10, an hour and twenty minutes for a meal seems pretty fair.

    It even says what they will do afterwards, i.e. no party that went on.

    So I think Starmer is home and clear, seems like he was telling the truth.

    There was nothing planned after the dinner except going back to the hotel so it doesn't match the previous story that they were working late and spontaneously decided to get a takeaway curry.
    Who said they spontaneously chose to get a takeaway curry? The story has always been we were working late and had curry. Which is what the memo confirms to be true. They planned it out, like all organisations do.
    Starmer said they went back to work after eating.
    The memo doesn't prove that to not be true.
    So you're arguing that this memo proves that curry was a the pre-planned working dinner, but we can ignore the bit after?

    And also, why didn't Labour produce this memo themselves if it proves they're in the clear?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 7,967
    dixiedean said:

    With 79 of 90 seats decided, current breakdown for NI Assembly 2022 is

    SF 23 DUP 22 ALLN 16 UUP 9 SDLP 6 Other 3 (1 TUV, 1 People Before Profit, 1 Ind ex-DUP)

    Looking forward to remaining seats to be decided:

    Foyle = 3 remaining, likely I SF, I DUP, 1 SDLP

    East Londonderry = 3 remaining, likely 1 Ind Unionist, either 2 SF or 1 SF, 1 SDLP

    Fermanagh and South Tyrone = 3 remaining, likely 2 SF, 1 DUP

    North Belfast = 2 remaining, likely 1 Alliance, 1 DUP

    total remaining thus = SF 4 (min) + DUP 3 + SDLP 2 (max) + Alliance 1 + Ind Unionist 1 = 11

    Which would add up with seats already decided to

    SF 27 DUP 25 ALLN 17 UUP 9 SDLP 8 TUV 1 PBP 2 Ind Unionists

    That's what I make it too.
    Interested in Sean F's take
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 21,147

    I must say, it is strange the "whistleblower" sat on the bombshell evidence for so long, almost like they chose to deploy it politically near to the LEs

    Alternatively the Tories made up the story to save the giant hound.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 18,471
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    8:40 to 10, an hour and twenty minutes for a meal seems pretty fair.

    It even says what they will do afterwards, i.e. no party that went on.

    So I think Starmer is home and clear, seems like he was telling the truth.

    There was nothing planned after the dinner except going back to the hotel so it doesn't match the previous story that they were working late and spontaneously decided to get a takeaway curry.
    Who said they spontaneously chose to get a takeaway curry? The story has always been we were working late and had curry. Which is what the memo confirms to be true. They planned it out, like all organisations do.
    Starmer said they went back to work after eating.
    The memo doesn't prove that to not be true.
    So you're arguing that this memo proves that curry was a the pre-planned working dinner, but we can ignore the bit after?
    The bit after doesn't say they stopped working. It says back Radison whatever that is.

    They probably continued working there.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,133

    I must say, it is strange the "whistleblower" sat on the bombshell evidence for so long, almost like they chose to deploy it politically near to the LEs

    If I were Tory HQ, I’d do it at the point of maximum pressure on my own leader.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 21,147

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    8:40 to 10, an hour and twenty minutes for a meal seems pretty fair.

    It even says what they will do afterwards, i.e. no party that went on.

    So I think Starmer is home and clear, seems like he was telling the truth.

    There was nothing planned after the dinner except going back to the hotel so it doesn't match the previous story that they were working late and spontaneously decided to get a takeaway curry.
    Who said they spontaneously chose to get a takeaway curry? The story has always been we were working late and had curry. Which is what the memo confirms to be true. They planned it out, like all organisations do.
    Starmer said they went back to work after eating.
    The memo doesn't prove that to not be true.
    So you're arguing that this memo proves that curry was a the pre-planned working dinner, but we can ignore the bit after?
    The bit after doesn't say they stopped working. It says back Radison whatever that is.

    They probably continued working there.
    Radisson is a hotel chain.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 18,471
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    8:40 to 10, an hour and twenty minutes for a meal seems pretty fair.

    It even says what they will do afterwards, i.e. no party that went on.

    So I think Starmer is home and clear, seems like he was telling the truth.

    There was nothing planned after the dinner except going back to the hotel so it doesn't match the previous story that they were working late and spontaneously decided to get a takeaway curry.
    Who said they spontaneously chose to get a takeaway curry? The story has always been we were working late and had curry. Which is what the memo confirms to be true. They planned it out, like all organisations do.
    Starmer said they went back to work after eating.
    The memo doesn't prove that to not be true.
    So you're arguing that this memo proves that curry was a the pre-planned working dinner, but we can ignore the bit after?

    And also, why didn't Labour produce this memo themselves if it proves they're in the clear?
    Because it's private and confidential?

    I expect they provided it to the Police, who have now leaked it. Just like they leaked the investigation being reopened without telling Starmer's office first.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 18,471
    Sandpit said:

    I must say, it is strange the "whistleblower" sat on the bombshell evidence for so long, almost like they chose to deploy it politically near to the LEs

    If I were Tory HQ, I’d do it at the point of maximum pressure on my own leader.
    Politically, it's genius. Can't disagree about that.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 19,357
    edited May 7
    Big new limestone clit-tickler project = Cuban cigar + excellent glass of red + sunset

    Always celebrate the good days. There are plenty of bad ones which will look out for themselves



  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 16,442
    The Croydon count is taking place at a school, which means they couldn't start until 6pm yesterday, and now it looks like it's going to go into tomorrow. Apparently the couldn't find a venue large enough in the whole of Croydon, apart from the school, even though the borough has a population of about 350,000 people. The main concert hall Fairfield Halls is in administration due to incompetence and therefore unavailable.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,649

    tlg86 said:

    8:40 to 10, an hour and twenty minutes for a meal seems pretty fair.

    It even says what they will do afterwards, i.e. no party that went on.

    So I think Starmer is home and clear, seems like he was telling the truth.

    There was nothing planned after the dinner except going back to the hotel so it doesn't match the previous story that they were working late and spontaneously decided to get a takeaway curry.
    Who said they spontaneously chose to get a takeaway curry? The story has always been we were working late and had curry. Which is what the memo confirms to be true. They planned it out, like all organisations do.
    Starmer said they went back to work after eating.
    The memo doesn't prove that to not be true.
    Because the curry was the last thing listed on the memo it presumably implies that nothing else happened after the curry, so we have.

    Work event.
    Work event ends.
    Curry.

    So the curry is an isolated, non-work-related social event of the kind that was strictly forbidden. If the author had just written three words - 'Work event resumes' - as the last item then history would be entirely different.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 1,947
    Labour set to lose 21 seats in Tower Hsmlets and maybe 2 or 3 in Croydon based on the mayoralty election, leaving them with a really lukewarm gain in England of perhaps 25 seats against Mr Mephisto and the Party Pack. And that's before hypocritegate takes off.
    They are a really worthless bunch, the lot of them. What a choice in 2024.
    Oh, betting tips! Norwich North is a lock for Labour next time out, if you want a seat against the head, I fancy one of the three Sunderlands to flip, probably central and as much as Malcolm would string me up for it, the Scot Tories will, despite Thursday, retake Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock if they can avoid any further backsliding
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 22,658

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    8:40 to 10, an hour and twenty minutes for a meal seems pretty fair.

    It even says what they will do afterwards, i.e. no party that went on.

    So I think Starmer is home and clear, seems like he was telling the truth.

    There was nothing planned after the dinner except going back to the hotel so it doesn't match the previous story that they were working late and spontaneously decided to get a takeaway curry.
    Who said they spontaneously chose to get a takeaway curry? The story has always been we were working late and had curry. Which is what the memo confirms to be true. They planned it out, like all organisations do.
    Starmer said they went back to work after eating.
    The memo doesn't prove that to not be true.
    So you're arguing that this memo proves that curry was a the pre-planned working dinner, but we can ignore the bit after?

    And also, why didn't Labour produce this memo themselves if it proves they're in the clear?
    Because it's private and confidential?

    I expect they provided it to the Police, who have now leaked it. Just like they leaked the investigation being reopened without telling Starmer's office first.
    What's interesting is that you're telling us all how Starmer obviously hasn't done anything wrong, and yet you're getting ready to accuse Durham Police of being politically motivated should they give Starmer a fine.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 18,471
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    8:40 to 10, an hour and twenty minutes for a meal seems pretty fair.

    It even says what they will do afterwards, i.e. no party that went on.

    So I think Starmer is home and clear, seems like he was telling the truth.

    There was nothing planned after the dinner except going back to the hotel so it doesn't match the previous story that they were working late and spontaneously decided to get a takeaway curry.
    Who said they spontaneously chose to get a takeaway curry? The story has always been we were working late and had curry. Which is what the memo confirms to be true. They planned it out, like all organisations do.
    Starmer said they went back to work after eating.
    The memo doesn't prove that to not be true.
    So you're arguing that this memo proves that curry was a the pre-planned working dinner, but we can ignore the bit after?

    And also, why didn't Labour produce this memo themselves if it proves they're in the clear?
    Because it's private and confidential?

    I expect they provided it to the Police, who have now leaked it. Just like they leaked the investigation being reopened without telling Starmer's office first.
    What's interesting is that you're telling us all how Starmer obviously hasn't done anything wrong, and yet you're getting ready to accuse Durham Police of being politically motivated should they give Starmer a fine.
    No if they give Starmer a fine, Starmer should resign. I trust the Police to do the right thing.

    What I am questioning is how this has been put out.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 7,967
    Leon said:

    Big new limestone clit-tickler project = Cuban cigar + excellent glass of red + sunset

    Always celebrate the good days. There are plenty of bad ones which will look out for themselves



    Are you still nursing that bottle of Flat Tire? BTW as culinary note, perfect accompaniment to spicy gumbo OR po'boy sandwich is a can of cold Dixie beer.

    With just the right metallic tang to tickle the taste buds!
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,536
    🍺🌶️🍺
This discussion has been closed.