This is insane if true. Ectopic pregnancies are almost invariably fatal for the foetus, and if this were to be enforced, frequently also for the mother.
One thing the Govt has yet to address or admit is the degree to which Brexit is fuelling UK inflation. Business leaders say it’s the thing “no one talks about” esp firms who want to keep Govt contracts https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1522477132500381696
Eurozone inflation 7.5% UK inflation 7.0%
Is the degree that Brexit is fuelling UK inflation -0.5% Scott?
If unemployment climbs to 5.5 as predicted, will you let us use the word stagflation?
Thankfully, there’s currently a labour shortage.
A glut of early retirements during the pandemic, and the ending of FoM with the EU, has seen vacancies at record rates, adverts offering sign-on bonuses, and 20% wage premiums on a lot of low-paid work.
The unemployment forecast was the one item that just didn’t look right in the forecast. The inflation is real though, and the China Covid situation is likely to squeeze supply chains for the next year at least.
“ The unemployment forecast was the one item that just didn’t look right in the forecast. “
No it’s not. It’s extremely plausible that in a downturn people can lose their jobs.
You might be wrong on basis how this works to sectors. Certain sectors could be in stagflation where the country overall isn’t.
Were FoM still in place, I’d be inclined to agree with you, but the labour shortage will force firms to invest in both capital and training, especially at the lower end of the labour market.
Many pre-pandemic hospitality workers, for example, are now working as drivers or in warehouses, for considerably more than minimum wage.
Broadly I don’t disagree. But you don’t speak for where we are now before change for better from years of investment in training. Rumanian chefs gone home, now can’t get a chef anywhere for example.
What likely to happen, next Tory leader/labour government will allow some bit of FoM to return to address these shortages.
But this is not Brexit. EVERYWHERE in the western world is suffering staff shortages, especially in Hospitality
It was a common theme across the Deep South during my recent trip. There were oyster houses in New Orleans turning away multiple customers "because we one have two waiters, normally we have six". Hotels, cafes, bars, everywhere was begging for staff
Ditto in the EU during my recent visits, and I can see it again here in Turkey, and of course in the UK
Where have they all gone?!
Quite trying trying to be a smart ass when you are just an ass. You can’t see any difference between a waiter and a chef? Really? The difference between skilled positions and unskilled positions? The ongoing hit to productivity in your economy if firms and sectors cannot Meet demand due to shortages of skilled staff? And the fact the main purpose of Brexit, taking back control of immigration with no FOM is already being by passed by this government, as the rules for Skilled Worker visas have been relaxed and some restrictions relaxed just as I told you was sensible to do so, and you seem ignorant that’s it’s already happening now! Brexit already unwinding whilst your sipping your beer and enjoying your view of the med. After all your posts you still haven’t worked out silence is the best answer for a fool, have you?
Tories lose a third seat in Runnymede Another Runnymede result: Englefield Green West has elected Abby King of the Labour and Co-operative Party with 403 votes. That was previously a Conservative seat, so that's now three seats they have lost in the borough, two of which have been to Labour. It also means that both Englefield Green seats that the Conservatives were defending have been lost.
Surrey is turning away from the tories. This is going to send shockwaves through the party. There are big hitting MPs in Surrey who are NOT going to be happy.
Johnson's days could still be numbered.
An important point. The results in places where there are sitting Tory MP's are infinitely more important to back bench opinion than everywhere else. There are 3 in Cumberland, 3 in Barnet, 10 in Surrey, 6 in Somerset and 6 in Scotland. They don't care so much about Wandsworth or Hull.
Durham Constabulary had previously said they did not believe the Labour leader had breached coronavirus rules when he and colleagues drank beer and had a takeaway curry in April 2021, when most indoor social gatherings were banned
Hmmm a lib dem revival pretty key to Labours hopes no? Although I suspect by the news bulletins tonight we we be talking about NI and certain contributors may be back to talking about UDI for Ballymena or some such....
I thought Ed Davey was very telling this morning.
In lots of places we are the challengers to the Tories he said. But nothing about Labour.
Unofficial pact as per 1997, it us clear Labour stepped back in some places and so did the Lib Dems. Big problems for the Tories ahead
Electoral pacts can be undemocratic, reducing local choice for the electorate.
At the last GE I only had a choice of three parties because of a Green / Lib Dem pact.
You only had a choice of three parties because of First Past The Post. As long as that continues, parties are inevitably going to make (often informal) pacts to maximise their seat tallies.
Rubbish.
And people who claim to dislike FPTP because of a supposed or real lack of democracy, who then support electoral pacts, are being inconsistent IMV.
I prefer pacts to be tacit, and based on targetting seats as per 1997 than not standing a candidate, but pacts are not inconsistent with FPTP, they are a consequence of it.
Not really. Under many non-FPTP schemes, the pacts happen *after* the election, turning what happened in 2010 into the norm.
As I say, not standing candidates is really poor. Not really trying shows that you don't really believe in what you're saying.
This is nonsense. Take an extreme example. 100 candidates of various shades of conservatism and 1 socialist candidate. 102 voters. 2 are socialists the rest various shades of conservatism. Socialist candidate wins with 2 votes and under 2% of the vote. That is your idea of democracy? Wouldn't it be better if the conservatives formed a pact or change from FPTP so they can stand and the most popular conservative gets elected.
Can you give me an example of a UK election where there were '100 candidates of various shades of conservatism and 1 socialist candidate', or is this just a rather extreme fiction?
Well of course it hasn't happened. I'm giving an extreme example (words I actually used) to point out the nonsense of your argument. But a subset of my example happens at every single election if more than 2 people stand. You are objecting to people forming pacts to get around the unfairness of FPTP. In which case change the system. If you won't do that you can't object to pacts. You are objecting to people refusing to spend time and money so as to commit political suicide by ensuring they can't win. You are actually demanding that someone puts the effort in to standing, which will cause the party they most object to winning by splitting the vote. And you can't see why they may not do this? That is totally daft.
So you couldn't thin of a better example, one that had actually happened? Whereas I gave an example where it had happened. Having a choice of just three was crass.
After 2010, there were plenty of Labour supporters - I think on here, but it was just before I stopped lurking - who complained about the 'stitch-up' in the coalition negotiations. 'Fairness' seems very much to depend on whether something advantages you or not.
Not standing also has other disadvantages: it pi**es people off who might have voted for your party (i.e. there's no way in heck I'd vote Green in our constituency at the next GE, however good the candidate), you 'lose' solid voters who would vote for you next time, and you lose real data on how many people in a constituency currently support your party.
Sorry you say I can't think of an actual example? As I pointed out every election where more than 2 people have stood is an example and if you want some extreme examples Stockton in the Alliance years, the Scottish constituency (North East) where in the past it has been a 4 way fight with just hundreds of votes in it, etc. But in fact 100s of the seats are ones where a party standing or standing down can change the result.
I'm sorry JJ, whereas I like most of your posts I find these appallingly arrogant. It takes a lot of work and money to stand and it is also difficult to find people to do so, so to expect someone to do that who has no chance of winning and who will almost certainly then cause their next preferred candidate to lose is asking a lot. Good on those that do, but don't criticize those that don't.
As I said if you don't like what happens (And I don't also. I would prefer more to stand and have a greater choice), don't blame the candidates and the parties, blame the system that drives that outcome.
I don't believe it's arrogant. I want a healthy, robust democracy, with free speech and lots of different candidates with different ideas. I also believe that the party system has a little too much power atm. These sorts of stitch-ups make our democracy weaker, not stronger. They reduce choice for the voters, and take power away from them into the parties.
I've said many times passim that I appreciate *everyone* who stands for an election - a point I've made to every candidate I've met during this election (it's been a bit hotter around here than normal, esp. between the Conservatives and LDs). Standing for election takes guts, good communication skills and a willingness to undergo public scrutiny that I just do not possess.
I want to see more of that, not less. And ideally I want political parties to have less power.
Indeed. And good for RP and other PBers standing yesterday.
Well, I'm a little bit more optimistic than my fellow Labour travellers on here. Not a great night for Labour outside London, obviously. And in comparison with the equivalent results in 2018, disappointing.
But given the absolute shellacking Labour got in most non-metropolitan areas in the 2019 GE, it's absolutely clear that significant progress has been made. It's only two years into Starmer's leadership, but a fair number of voters will now either vote Labour or consider it. The task was always going to be Herculean following GE 2019, and I reckon progress so far is a bit better than okay.
North Down looks as though it will be 2 Alliance, 1 DUP, ! Independent Unionist (ex DUP) 1 UUP. That's one Independent Unionist gain from DUP and 1 Alliance gain from Green.
On a knife edge in South Belfast. Second Alliance v Green incumbent. Alliance doing well. Caveat. These are all rumours. Still short of a result
What's the read out across NI? Unionist <-> Unionist or Unionist <-> Nationalist changes?
Well. We don't have any actual results yet... @Sean_F gave a summary just before, which I don't disagree with.
So I was defeated as expected, but came 3rd on first preference votes (ahead of the 2nd Tory who won) and ran it to 5 rounds of counting before a result was declared.
“Durham Police will investigate Sir Keir Starmer over ‘beergate’ allegations, the Telegraph understands… following days of mounting pressure and repeated questions over Sir Keir’s version of events, the force is set to announce it will now investigate the claims fully.”
Well if Keir is fined, he will have to resign. And I would support such an action.
He won't of course but it would be a huge boost to Boris if Sir Keir was fined too. I doubt he will be fined though, just given a rap on the knuckles at most
“The SNP look set to win the vast majority of seats in Scotland. The Liberal Democrats given their position in the polls should do extremely well. We expect Caroline Lucas and the Green Party to hang on to her seat.
“We could have more than 100 MPs that do not belong to either of the other two parties”
That's not the same as saying the Lib Dems could win 100 MPs.
Tories lose a third seat in Runnymede Another Runnymede result: Englefield Green West has elected Abby King of the Labour and Co-operative Party with 403 votes. That was previously a Conservative seat, so that's now three seats they have lost in the borough, two of which have been to Labour. It also means that both Englefield Green seats that the Conservatives were defending have been lost.
Surrey is turning away from the tories. This is going to send shockwaves through the party. There are big hitting MPs in Surrey who are NOT going to be happy.
Johnson's days could still be numbered.
An important point. The results in places where there are sitting Tory MP's are infinitely more important to back bench opinion than everywhere else. There are 3 in Cumberland, 3 in Barnet, 10 in Surrey, 6 in Somerset and 6 in Scotland. They don't care so much about Wandsworth or Hull.
I’ll be watching the Woking result keenly. I’d be shocked if the Lib Dems didn’t take it - could be one to watch for the GE turning yellow as well (although not quite as nailed on as Guildford)
“The SNP look set to win the vast majority of seats in Scotland. The Liberal Democrats given their position in the polls should do extremely well. We expect Caroline Lucas and the Green Party to hang on to her seat.
“We could have more than 100 MPs that do not belong to either of the other two parties”
That's not the same as saying the Lib Dems could win 100 MPs.
The majority of those would have been Lib Dems, so I stand by what I said.
So I was defeated as expected, but came 3rd on first preference votes (ahead of the 2nd Tory who won) and ran it to 5 rounds of counting before a result was declared.
Not bad for a paper candidate...
Congratulations! (On both a good performance and not getting sent to the council)
One thing the Govt has yet to address or admit is the degree to which Brexit is fuelling UK inflation. Business leaders say it’s the thing “no one talks about” esp firms who want to keep Govt contracts https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1522477132500381696
Eurozone inflation 7.5% UK inflation 7.0%
Is the degree that Brexit is fuelling UK inflation -0.5% Scott?
If unemployment climbs to 5.5 as predicted, will you let us use the word stagflation?
Thankfully, there’s currently a labour shortage.
A glut of early retirements during the pandemic, and the ending of FoM with the EU, has seen vacancies at record rates, adverts offering sign-on bonuses, and 20% wage premiums on a lot of low-paid work.
The unemployment forecast was the one item that just didn’t look right in the forecast. The inflation is real though, and the China Covid situation is likely to squeeze supply chains for the next year at least.
“ The unemployment forecast was the one item that just didn’t look right in the forecast. “
No it’s not. It’s extremely plausible that in a downturn people can lose their jobs.
You might be wrong on basis how this works to sectors. Certain sectors could be in stagflation where the country overall isn’t.
Were FoM still in place, I’d be inclined to agree with you, but the labour shortage will force firms to invest in both capital and training, especially at the lower end of the labour market.
Many pre-pandemic hospitality workers, for example, are now working as drivers or in warehouses, for considerably more than minimum wage.
Broadly I don’t disagree. But you don’t speak for where we are now before change for better from years of investment in training. Rumanian chefs gone home, now can’t get a chef anywhere for example.
What likely to happen, next Tory leader/labour government will allow some bit of FoM to return to address these shortages.
But this is not Brexit. EVERYWHERE in the western world is suffering staff shortages, especially in Hospitality
It was a common theme across the Deep South during my recent trip. There were oyster houses in New Orleans turning away multiple customers "because we one have two waiters, normally we have six". Hotels, cafes, bars, everywhere was begging for staff
Ditto in the EU during my recent visits, and I can see it again here in Turkey, and of course in the UK
Where have they all gone?!
Quite trying trying to be a smart ass when you are just an ass. You can’t see any difference between a waiter and a chef? Really? The difference between skilled positions and unskilled positions? The ongoing hit to productivity in your economy if firms and sectors cannot Meet demand due to shortages of skilled staff? And the fact the main purpose of Brexit, taking back control of immigration with no FOM is already being by passed by this government, as the rules for Skilled Worker visas have been relaxed and some restrictions relaxed just as I told you was sensible to do so, and you seem ignorant that’s it’s already happening now! Brexit already unwinding whilst your sipping your beer and enjoying your view of the med. After all your posts you still haven’t worked out silence is the best answer for a fool, have you?
Have you ever heard of the concept of Investing In People?
Skilled staff aren't some unique natural resource that needs to be imported as we lack veins of them to be mined in the UK.
I 100% approve of skilled workers being able to get a visa to migrate to the UK, but if there's a shortage of skills then firms can invest in training the staff they do have. Apprenticeships and more are real things you know?
“The SNP look set to win the vast majority of seats in Scotland. The Liberal Democrats given their position in the polls should do extremely well. We expect Caroline Lucas and the Green Party to hang on to her seat.
“We could have more than 100 MPs that do not belong to either of the other two parties”
That isnt saying a 100 LD's. With SNP, NI and the rest, nearer 20-25.
Incidentally, there was a council by-election down here in Rottingdean, a twee village a few miles outside Brighton. The safest Conservative seat in Brighton and Hove previously. Labour won it, and an Independent knocked the Tories into third place.
Some people moaning why an investigation might occur now re timing . Well given the Met police didn’t do any more updates before the local elections why would Durham just before the elections .
Is the message of this election largely "Who runs Britain?"
"Whatevs, but not you."
Interesting and shows the changes post Brexit. In the dying years of the Major government Westminster, Wandsworth and Huntingdonshire were some of the few councils which stayed blue and resisted the New Labour tide. Now all have gone Labour or NOC.
However in other more pro Brexit areas like Harlow and Swindon which were Labour in the 1990s, the Conservatives are still in control
I imagine Huntingtonshire is changing under the pull of Cambridge.
I used to live in St Ives when it was like its most famous MP; pleasant, comfortable but not posh, solidly Conservative.
All gone, including a seat going to Labour of all people.
This is insane if true. Ectopic pregnancies are almost invariably fatal for the foetus, and if this were to be enforced, frequently also for the mother.
Uneducated, unscientific, nonsense forcing the mother to endure pain and distress for no reason. As you say, the baby is already not going to make it and it risks the mother for no reason. If I squint, I can sort of understand a form of “pro-life” position, but not this. Yuck.
As Durham Constabulary are poised to reinvestigate Sir Keir Starmer over beergate, Tory spads were told this morning that it was one of most successful CCHQ attacks on Labour in recent history
There is no honour in the Tory Party, what a bunch of knobs
“The SNP look set to win the vast majority of seats in Scotland. The Liberal Democrats given their position in the polls should do extremely well. We expect Caroline Lucas and the Green Party to hang on to her seat.
“We could have more than 100 MPs that do not belong to either of the other two parties”
That's not the same as saying the Lib Dems could win 100 MPs.
The majority of those would have been Lib Dems, so I stand by what I said.
“The SNP look set to win the vast majority of seats in Scotland. The Liberal Democrats given their position in the polls should do extremely well. We expect Caroline Lucas and the Green Party to hang on to her seat.
“We could have more than 100 MPs that do not belong to either of the other two parties”
That's not the same as saying the Lib Dems could win 100 MPs.
The majority of those would have been Lib Dems, so I stand by what I said.
No. The majority would be SNP. 🤦♂️
Plus he said "could".
The Tories finished on 365 and Labour on 202 out of 650, so the actual figure ended up being 83 not from either of the two main parties.
Being 17 short of what it "could" be isn't a million miles off.
This is insane if true. Ectopic pregnancies are almost invariably fatal for the foetus, and if this were to be enforced, frequently also for the mother.
“The SNP look set to win the vast majority of seats in Scotland. The Liberal Democrats given their position in the polls should do extremely well. We expect Caroline Lucas and the Green Party to hang on to her seat.
“We could have more than 100 MPs that do not belong to either of the other two parties”
That's not the same as saying the Lib Dems could win 100 MPs.
The majority of those would have been Lib Dems, so I stand by what I said.
No. There are SNP, Northern Irish MPs and Welsh nationalists. That leaves about 30 Lib Dems.
“The SNP look set to win the vast majority of seats in Scotland. The Liberal Democrats given their position in the polls should do extremely well. We expect Caroline Lucas and the Green Party to hang on to her seat.
“We could have more than 100 MPs that do not belong to either of the other two parties”
That's not the same as saying the Lib Dems could win 100 MPs.
The majority of those would have been Lib Dems, so I stand by what I said.
No. There are SNP, Northern Irish MPs and Welsh nationalists. That leaves about 30 Lib Dems.
Is the message of this election largely "Who runs Britain?"
"Whatevs, but not you."
Interesting and shows the changes post Brexit. In the dying years of the Major government Westminster, Wandsworth and Huntingdonshire were some of the few councils which stayed blue and resisted the New Labour tide. Now all have gone Labour or NOC.
However in other more pro Brexit areas like Harlow and Swindon which were Labour in the 1990s, the Conservatives are still in control
I imagine Huntingtonshire is changing under the pull of Cambridge.
I used to live in St Ives when it was like its most famous MP; pleasant, comfortable but not posh, solidly Conservative.
All gone, including a seat going to Labour of all people.
Not sure I'd have described Oliver Cromwell in those terms.
If Starmer has any sense he'd get himself up pronto to the Lake District to bask in the Labour victories here. Not go on about Westminster and Wandsworth.
He should come to Millom, which May visited after Trudi Harrison won Copeland in early 2017. It would be a good way of showing three things:-
1. Labour has started the process of reversing the shift to the Tories in traditional Labour seats which that Copeland victory demonstrated. 2. Labour will pay proper attention to areas such as this - forgotten under previous Labour governments, promised the moon by the Tories but let down by them. 3. Labour will not just be a complacent London-centric party. There is a danger for Labour in doing that. It is its comfort-zone but it is not the way to win elections nor the way to govern effectively.
I will even throw in a tour of my lovely garden and he can look at the Iron Line proposals.
Come on, Keir. You can do it!
Of course he can't
If it was Johnson he would be all over it.
Labour are a metropolitan big city party and they will revel in Wandsworth and Westminster and neglect the towns and the provinces.
This is insane if true. Ectopic pregnancies are almost invariably fatal for the foetus, and if this were to be enforced, frequently also for the mother.
This is insane if true. Ectopic pregnancies are almost invariably fatal for the foetus, and if this were to be enforced, frequently also for the mother.
I read somewhere that only 1 in 60 million ectopic pregnancies are viable, although I don't understand how even 1 can survive. 1 in 90 pregnancies are ectopic and the mother can bleed to death. Happy to be corrected on any of that, but if accurate this is barking mad.
This is insane if true. Ectopic pregnancies are almost invariably fatal for the foetus, and if this were to be enforced, frequently also for the mother.
We must now discuss possible successors to Starmer.
Rachel Reeves is surely odds on to take over. Starmer must change the rules before he goes so another Corbynite cannot be re-elected.
Durham set a precedent with Cummings . They said they wouldn’t fine retrospectively so if that holds Starmer wouldn’t get a FPN.
Indeed though they'll have a PR dilemma with the Met not following that precedent and fining Boris for having food at work at 1pm, while 30+ were gathering indoors for food and alcohol at 10pm in Starmer's case.
This is insane if true. Ectopic pregnancies are almost invariably fatal for the foetus, and if this were to be enforced, frequently also for the mother.
I read somewhere that only 1 in 60 million ectopic pregnancies are viable, although I don't understand how even 1 can survive. 1 in 90 pregnancies are ectopic and the mother can bleed to death. Happy to be corrected on any of that, but if accurate this is barking mad.
It’s worse. It’s evil. No other word for it - it’s a law designed to inflict unnecessary suffering on someone already coming to terms with losing their baby.
If Starmer has any sense he'd get himself up pronto to the Lake District to bask in the Labour victories here. Not go on about Westminster and Wandsworth.
He should come to Millom, which May visited after Trudi Harrison won Copeland in early 2017. It would be a good way of showing three things:-
1. Labour has started the process of reversing the shift to the Tories in traditional Labour seats which that Copeland victory demonstrated. 2. Labour will pay proper attention to areas such as this - forgotten under previous Labour governments, promised the moon by the Tories but let down by them. 3. Labour will not just be a complacent London-centric party. There is a danger for Labour in doing that. It is its comfort-zone but it is not the way to win elections nor the way to govern effectively.
I will even throw in a tour of my lovely garden and he can look at the Iron Line proposals.
Come on, Keir. You can do it!
Trips up North are often fraught with beer and curry action danger for Starmer.
Don't do it!
If it's the Lakes they can give him a traditional slab of Kendal Mint Cake, take him for a ramble, and he can break 3 teeth on it when it has turned into the traditional slab of marble 2 hours later.
This is insane if true. Ectopic pregnancies are almost invariably fatal for the foetus, and if this were to be enforced, frequently also for the mother.
The language on the bill is, of course, designed to outlaw the 'morning after' pill.
They are batshit crazy.
I'm increasingly certain that some Red State legislature will try to reintroduce anti-miscegenation legislation,
The logical basis of the legal arguments in Alito's opinion would probably allow it, though I think at least a couple of the conservatives on the court might baulk at it.
Is the message of this election largely "Who runs Britain?"
"Whatevs, but not you."
Interesting and shows the changes post Brexit. In the dying years of the Major government Westminster, Wandsworth and Huntingdonshire were some of the few councils which stayed blue and resisted the New Labour tide. Now all have gone Labour or NOC.
However in other more pro Brexit areas like Harlow and Swindon which were Labour in the 1990s, the Conservatives are still in control
In Huntingdonshire a lot of ex Lib Dems ran as independents after the 2015 debacle. They brought a lot of organising nouce to resident campaigns and created a group of loosely aligned indepents who hoover up votes to this day. In my corner of Huntingdonshire for candidates we had two Tories who didn't give their addresses, one Green and one independent. No Labour or Lib Dems to be seen.
One thing the Govt has yet to address or admit is the degree to which Brexit is fuelling UK inflation. Business leaders say it’s the thing “no one talks about” esp firms who want to keep Govt contracts https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1522477132500381696
Eurozone inflation 7.5% UK inflation 7.0%
Is the degree that Brexit is fuelling UK inflation -0.5% Scott?
If unemployment climbs to 5.5 as predicted, will you let us use the word stagflation?
Thankfully, there’s currently a labour shortage.
A glut of early retirements during the pandemic, and the ending of FoM with the EU, has seen vacancies at record rates, adverts offering sign-on bonuses, and 20% wage premiums on a lot of low-paid work.
The unemployment forecast was the one item that just didn’t look right in the forecast. The inflation is real though, and the China Covid situation is likely to squeeze supply chains for the next year at least.
“ The unemployment forecast was the one item that just didn’t look right in the forecast. “
No it’s not. It’s extremely plausible that in a downturn people can lose their jobs.
You might be wrong on basis how this works to sectors. Certain sectors could be in stagflation where the country overall isn’t.
Were FoM still in place, I’d be inclined to agree with you, but the labour shortage will force firms to invest in both capital and training, especially at the lower end of the labour market.
Many pre-pandemic hospitality workers, for example, are now working as drivers or in warehouses, for considerably more than minimum wage.
Broadly I don’t disagree. But you don’t speak for where we are now before change for better from years of investment in training. Rumanian chefs gone home, now can’t get a chef anywhere for example.
What likely to happen, next Tory leader/labour government will allow some bit of FoM to return to address these shortages.
But this is not Brexit. EVERYWHERE in the western world is suffering staff shortages, especially in Hospitality
It was a common theme across the Deep South during my recent trip. There were oyster houses in New Orleans turning away multiple customers "because we one have two waiters, normally we have six". Hotels, cafes, bars, everywhere was begging for staff
Ditto in the EU during my recent visits, and I can see it again here in Turkey, and of course in the UK
Where have they all gone?!
Quite trying trying to be a smart ass when you are just an ass. You can’t see any difference between a waiter and a chef? Really? The difference between skilled positions and unskilled positions? The ongoing hit to productivity in your economy if firms and sectors cannot Meet demand due to shortages of skilled staff? And the fact the main purpose of Brexit, taking back control of immigration with no FOM is already being by passed by this government, as the rules for Skilled Worker visas have been relaxed and some restrictions relaxed just as I told you was sensible to do so, and you seem ignorant that’s it’s already happening now! Brexit already unwinding whilst your sipping your beer and enjoying your view of the med. After all your posts you still haven’t worked out silence is the best answer for a fool, have you?
Have you ever heard of the concept of Investing In People?
Skilled staff aren't some unique natural resource that needs to be imported as we lack veins of them to be mined in the UK.
I 100% approve of skilled workers being able to get a visa to migrate to the UK, but if there's a shortage of skills then firms can invest in training the staff they do have. Apprenticeships and more are real things you know?
Have you heard of investing in people and transforming an economy to a modern productive one over two decades first, rather than the moment you realise you have created a problem?
This is insane if true. Ectopic pregnancies are almost invariably fatal for the foetus, and if this were to be enforced, frequently also for the mother.
I read somewhere that only 1 in 60 million ectopic pregnancies are viable, although I don't understand how even 1 can survive. 1 in 90 pregnancies are ectopic and the mother can bleed to death. Happy to be corrected on any of that, but if accurate this is barking mad.
As I noted above, the intention is to outlaw the morning after pill. It's simply that the state Republicans are as ignorant as they are immoral.
So I was defeated as expected, but came 3rd on first preference votes (ahead of the 2nd Tory who won) and ran it to 5 rounds of counting before a result was declared.
While we're on Alito's opinion, this is one of the authorities it cites.
Justice Alito's invocation of Sir Matthew Hale in his leaked majority opinion is so, so much more fucked up than people realize. I'm a professor with a PhD, and my area of expertise happens to be women and gender in the early modern era (1500-1700). Here is what you need to know. https://twitter.com/Literature_Lady/status/1522202362366078979
If Starmer has any sense he'd get himself up pronto to the Lake District to bask in the Labour victories here. Not go on about Westminster and Wandsworth.
He should come to Millom, which May visited after Trudi Harrison won Copeland in early 2017. It would be a good way of showing three things:-
1. Labour has started the process of reversing the shift to the Tories in traditional Labour seats which that Copeland victory demonstrated. 2. Labour will pay proper attention to areas such as this - forgotten under previous Labour governments, promised the moon by the Tories but let down by them. 3. Labour will not just be a complacent London-centric party. There is a danger for Labour in doing that. It is its comfort-zone but it is not the way to win elections nor the way to govern effectively.
I will even throw in a tour of my lovely garden and he can look at the Iron Line proposals.
Come on, Keir. You can do it!
Of course he can't
If it was Johnson he would be all over it.
Labour are a metropolitan big city party and they will revel in Wandsworth and Westminster and neglect the towns and the provinces.
This response to General Hertling's conclusions made me snort out loud
Mark Hertling @MarkHertling · 18m A summary: Did we pass intelligence? Likely, yes Did Ukraine us it to their advantage and with skill? Also, likely yes. Did Russia do a few dumb things to put their army/navy at risk? Only they can answer that. 12/12 11 35 36 440
the1fromthecheese @madato14 · 9m Replying to @MarkHertling My question is, so why keep killing those perfectly dumb and incompetent officers
Very interesting dynamics if Starmer does get fined and as a result honourably resigns...
Heh. One hell of a dilemma - resign and take the PM with you or roll the dice on the election without that attack line, and hope to still become PM.
Is it reason to resign?
I meant in the event he was fined. At that point, resigning would surely topple the PM too.? Or maybe not…
Ironically the LOTO resigning might secure the PM. If the story moves on to everyone was flawed, then the fire has already been burnt with the scandal for the PM so it moves from a specific to general anger.
One thing the Govt has yet to address or admit is the degree to which Brexit is fuelling UK inflation. Business leaders say it’s the thing “no one talks about” esp firms who want to keep Govt contracts https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1522477132500381696
Eurozone inflation 7.5% UK inflation 7.0%
Is the degree that Brexit is fuelling UK inflation -0.5% Scott?
If unemployment climbs to 5.5 as predicted, will you let us use the word stagflation?
Thankfully, there’s currently a labour shortage.
A glut of early retirements during the pandemic, and the ending of FoM with the EU, has seen vacancies at record rates, adverts offering sign-on bonuses, and 20% wage premiums on a lot of low-paid work.
The unemployment forecast was the one item that just didn’t look right in the forecast. The inflation is real though, and the China Covid situation is likely to squeeze supply chains for the next year at least.
“ The unemployment forecast was the one item that just didn’t look right in the forecast. “
No it’s not. It’s extremely plausible that in a downturn people can lose their jobs.
You might be wrong on basis how this works to sectors. Certain sectors could be in stagflation where the country overall isn’t.
Were FoM still in place, I’d be inclined to agree with you, but the labour shortage will force firms to invest in both capital and training, especially at the lower end of the labour market.
Many pre-pandemic hospitality workers, for example, are now working as drivers or in warehouses, for considerably more than minimum wage.
Broadly I don’t disagree. But you don’t speak for where we are now before change for better from years of investment in training. Rumanian chefs gone home, now can’t get a chef anywhere for example.
What likely to happen, next Tory leader/labour government will allow some bit of FoM to return to address these shortages.
But this is not Brexit. EVERYWHERE in the western world is suffering staff shortages, especially in Hospitality
It was a common theme across the Deep South during my recent trip. There were oyster houses in New Orleans turning away multiple customers "because we one have two waiters, normally we have six". Hotels, cafes, bars, everywhere was begging for staff
Ditto in the EU during my recent visits, and I can see it again here in Turkey, and of course in the UK
Where have they all gone?!
Quite trying trying to be a smart ass when you are just an ass. You can’t see any difference between a waiter and a chef? Really? The difference between skilled positions and unskilled positions? The ongoing hit to productivity in your economy if firms and sectors cannot Meet demand due to shortages of skilled staff? And the fact the main purpose of Brexit, taking back control of immigration with no FOM is already being by passed by this government, as the rules for Skilled Worker visas have been relaxed and some restrictions relaxed just as I told you was sensible to do so, and you seem ignorant that’s it’s already happening now! Brexit already unwinding whilst your sipping your beer and enjoying your view of the med. After all your posts you still haven’t worked out silence is the best answer for a fool, have you?
Have you ever heard of the concept of Investing In People?
Skilled staff aren't some unique natural resource that needs to be imported as we lack veins of them to be mined in the UK.
I 100% approve of skilled workers being able to get a visa to migrate to the UK, but if there's a shortage of skills then firms can invest in training the staff they do have. Apprenticeships and more are real things you know?
Have you heard of investing in people and transforming an economy to a modern productive one over two decades first, rather than the moment you realise you have created a problem?
Companies didn’t do that though, they chose instead to import cheap labour from developing countries.
They no longer have the choice to do that for unskilled workers, so investment in capital and training is required.
This is insane if true. Ectopic pregnancies are almost invariably fatal for the foetus, and if this were to be enforced, frequently also for the mother.
I read somewhere that only 1 in 60 million ectopic pregnancies are viable, although I don't understand how even 1 can survive. 1 in 90 pregnancies are ectopic and the mother can bleed to death. Happy to be corrected on any of that, but if accurate this is barking mad.
I think there are rare cases of implammantation outside the uterus and fallopian tubes that have survived.
Normally an ectopic causes haemorrhage that can be fatal to both mother and fetus. It really is difficult to see that as a "pro-life" position, unless there is slight of hand going on and abortion taking place, but labelled as ectopic as cover. D and C has been used that way in the past by dodgy gynaecologists.
This is insane if true. Ectopic pregnancies are almost invariably fatal for the foetus, and if this were to be enforced, frequently also for the mother.
The language on the bill is, of course, designed to outlaw the 'morning after' pill.
They are batshit crazy.
I'm increasingly certain that some Red State legislature will try to reintroduce anti-miscegenation legislation,
I'll be honest, I didn't know what "anti-miscegenation" meant and I'm rather sorry that I may now have to.
It's a reference to Loving v. Virginia, which decision depends to an extent on the same right to privacy that Roe was based on (and which Alito's opinion describes as ill founded). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loving_v._Virginia
This is insane if true. Ectopic pregnancies are almost invariably fatal for the foetus, and if this were to be enforced, frequently also for the mother.
I read somewhere that only 1 in 60 million ectopic pregnancies are viable, although I don't understand how even 1 can survive. 1 in 90 pregnancies are ectopic and the mother can bleed to death. Happy to be corrected on any of that, but if accurate this is barking mad.
As I noted above, the intention is to outlaw the morning after pill. It's simply that the state Republicans are as ignorant as they are immoral.
Do US States even have the power to prevent the import and use of a drug that’s legal in the State next door? Bonkers, and presumably unenforceable, if they do.
Very interesting dynamics if Starmer does get fined and as a result honourably resigns...
Heh. One hell of a dilemma - resign and take the PM with you or roll the dice on the election without that attack line, and hope to still become PM.
Is it reason to resign?
I meant in the event he was fined. At that point, resigning would surely topple the PM too.? Or maybe not…
Ironically the LOTO resigning might secure the PM. If the story moves on to everyone was flawed, then the fire has already been burnt with the scandal for the PM so it moves from a specific to general anger.
I rarely find myself in agreement with you, or even liking you frankly, but on this I believe you are right.
Well, I'm a little bit more optimistic than my fellow Labour travellers on here. Not a great night for Labour outside London, obviously. And in comparison with the equivalent results in 2018, disappointing.
But given the absolute shellacking Labour got in most non-metropolitan areas in the 2019 GE, it's absolutely clear that significant progress has been made. It's only two years into Starmer's leadership, but a fair number of voters will now either vote Labour or consider it. The task was always going to be Herculean following GE 2019, and I reckon progress so far is a bit better than okay.
I've cheered up a bit.
Still optimistic for Lab biggest party at the GE - it's no forlorn hope - it's just with my betting hat on that I have to downgrade the prospects slightly.
Comments
Ectopic pregnancies are almost invariably fatal for the foetus, and if this were to be enforced, frequently also for the mother.
https://twitter.com/MollieKatzen/status/1522329366130266112
The new Louisiana bill has amended the current law's language to make sure abortion criminalization covers ectopic pregnancies.
There are 3 in Cumberland, 3 in Barnet, 10 in Surrey, 6 in Somerset and 6 in Scotland.
They don't care so much about Wandsworth or Hull.
ScotLDs and Greens having a good night (day). Tories....
SDP: 50.8% (+28.5)
LAB: 36.1% (-25.0)
CON: 7.7% (-3.6)
GRN: 3.9% (New)
LDM: 1.5% (-3.8)
SDP GAIN from Labour.
Interesting timing.
But given the absolute shellacking Labour got in most non-metropolitan areas in the 2019 GE, it's absolutely clear that significant progress has been made. It's only two years into Starmer's leadership, but a fair number of voters will now either vote Labour or consider it. The task was always going to be Herculean following GE 2019, and I reckon progress so far is a bit better than okay.
https://twitter.com/KuldkeppMart/status/1522271404829425664
@Sean_F gave a summary just before, which I don't disagree with.
https://twitter.com/WilliamClouston/status/1522537143037538307
The SDP gets a Councillor in Leeds!
(I can't recall the state but don't think it's Louisiana. But even if it's 'only' one place, that's still nuts).
F1 driver Sebastian Vettel is to appear as a guest on BBC’s Question Time next week.
I wonder what might be his view on the prime minister’s birthday cake, or of Lib Dem gains in rural council elections?
“Durham Police will investigate Sir Keir Starmer over ‘beergate’ allegations, the Telegraph understands… following days of mounting pressure and repeated questions over Sir Keir’s version of events, the force is set to announce it will now investigate the claims fully.”
Scottish parties so far, in terms of numbers of councillors:
Grn +150%
SLD +70%
SLab + 17%
SNP -2%
Ind -13%
SCon -21%
LAB: 51.1% (+11.6)
CON: 35.0% (-9.7)
LDM: 6.6% (-4.2)
YSP: 4.2% (New)
GRN: 3.0% (-2.0)
Labour GAIN from Conservative.
Skilled staff aren't some unique natural resource that needs to be imported as we lack veins of them to be mined in the UK.
I 100% approve of skilled workers being able to get a visa to migrate to the UK, but if there's a shortage of skills then firms can invest in training the staff they do have. Apprenticeships and more are real things you know?
GE17, LE18, LE19, GE19, LE21, LE22
Con g36, 33, 24, g45, 36, 36
Bxp&c g6, 0, 19, g8, 1, 0
Lab g56, 51, 41, g41, 50, 53
LD g2, 3, 2, g5, 3, 5
Ind g0, 12, 14, g1, 11, 7
So, in Leigh, suggests we have wound back close to GE17 / LE18 support levels.
I used to live in St Ives when it was like its most famous MP; pleasant, comfortable but not posh, solidly Conservative.
All gone, including a seat going to Labour of all people.
There is no honour in the Tory Party, what a bunch of knobs
But I might actually watch it.
Both in London and in Durham.
They all have better things to do, than investigate two-year-old parking tickets.
Plus he said "could".
The Tories finished on 365 and Labour on 202 out of 650, so the actual figure ended up being 83 not from either of the two main parties.
Being 17 short of what it "could" be isn't a million miles off.
https://twitter.com/cne_siar/status/1522516054261571587?cxt=HHwWhoC5sZySiKEqAAAA
Rachel Reeves is surely odds on to take over. Starmer must change the rules before he goes so another Corbynite cannot be re-elected.
I got it completely wrong too!
Could be interesting.
Is this another via ferrata like the last one?
Corbyn was so shit he did brilliantly in 2018 and we can't do that good because Corbyn was shit.
I'm increasingly certain that some Red State legislature will try to reintroduce anti-miscegenation legislation,
- no Slab revival (Stepps etc)
- Greens doing well, possible at expense of Labour?
- Lib Dems taking the Tory vote (Inverleith)
This is Bozza we're talking about.
It's simply that the state Republicans are as ignorant as they are immoral.
Justice Alito's invocation of Sir Matthew Hale in his leaked majority opinion is so, so much more fucked up than people realize. I'm a professor with a PhD, and my area of expertise happens to be women and gender in the early modern era (1500-1700). Here is what you need to know.
https://twitter.com/Literature_Lady/status/1522202362366078979
Mark Hertling
@MarkHertling
·
18m
A summary:
Did we pass intelligence? Likely, yes
Did Ukraine us it to their advantage and with skill? Also, likely yes.
Did Russia do a few dumb things to put their army/navy at risk? Only they can answer that. 12/12
11
35
36
440
the1fromthecheese
@madato14
·
9m
Replying to
@MarkHertling
My question is, so why keep killing those perfectly dumb and incompetent officers
They no longer have the choice to do that for unskilled workers, so investment in capital and training is required.
Normally an ectopic causes haemorrhage that can be fatal to both mother and fetus. It really is difficult to see that as a "pro-life" position, unless there is slight of hand going on and abortion taking place, but labelled as ectopic as cover. D and C has been used that way in the past by dodgy gynaecologists.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loving_v._Virginia
Woking results are expected to start shortly. This could be another shockwave.
Labour + 40 Councillors including London
Still optimistic for Lab biggest party at the GE - it's no forlorn hope - it's just with my betting hat on that I have to downgrade the prospects slightly.